Rebate

I’ve known this has been a problem for quite some time but have just chosen to mostly ignore it. I think it’s now time to address the problem of subscribers forwarding the nightly reports.

Realistically there’s no way to police this kind of theft, and if you just want to forward one or two reports to a friend so they can sample the SMT I have no problem with that.

I do have a problem when someone copies the report and forwards it to 20 of his investing buddies though.  

I think we can all agree that the price of the newsletter is chump change, especially compared to the profits we made last year or even so far this year for that matter.

I’ve kept the cost of a subscription down to a reasonable level to where virtually anyone can easily afford a yearly subscription. So price really shouldn’t be an issue. 

So here’s what I’m going to do. I’m going to give everyone an incentive not to pass on the reports freely. I’m going to rebate $50 for every friend or associate you send to the SMT that signs up for a yearly membership.

If you sign up 4 people your membership for the year is free. If you sign up 8 people not only is your membership free but you will make $200 (go buy some silver Eagles).

They have to sign up for a year. They will need to tell me at the time who referred them and give me your email address so I can deposit the funds in your Paypal account.

There will be no limit to how many people you can refer but I’m not going to try and keep track of this on a yearly basis and I’m not going to do retro rebates. The program will begin today. It’s just going to be a one time rebate of $50 whenever you refer a new subscriber for a yearly membership. 


Hopefully this will be enough incentive to cure this problem.

758 thoughts on “Rebate

  1. Jayhawk

    Nice Gary. I’ve forwarded a copy or 2 to a buddy maybe a hand full of times. The goal is to let them see what you do so they can hopefully sign up.

    Also, I’ve promoted your service extensively out there in blog land. Kitco Precious Mining forum knows all about you as I’ve posted many links. I know quite a few who have come here. I do it because you have been so helpful and the service is peanuts for what you get.

  2. DG

    Wes: A serious question—Are you always all in on your best idea? If not and you have a positive expectancy for a non-correlated idea that shows up, would you not take it? I am rarely all in so maybe that’s the difference.

    Alex: Thanks for the feedback on GPL. Half of today’s volume is me! (j/k)

  3. Jayhawk

    Alex-Right, I’m not too worried about EXK & AXU. Just wanted a bit of GPL.

    Also, Tim Knight posted a new short yesterday. EGO if anyone needs a new gold long. πŸ™‚

    He also posted KOG as a LONG. Careful Alex.

  4. vuvvy

    90 min system just took it’s 8th straight loss on gold futures short trades.Incredible strength since the bottom in low 1300’s.

  5. ALEX

    DG

    haha, I thought that was you!! (J/K’ing also).

    I posted to you one last time on the last page , so you can go read it there, ok. It has to do with adding or tracking GPL

  6. Poly

    Nice move this morning, Silver almost retraced back to the 1pm sell off in less than 24 hours.

    Classic.

    GPL really showing strength, newly listed on NYSE I believe is having a big impact. If it could get over $5 it could be lights out.

  7. Romeo Bravo

    Gary, if you are seeing multiple IP addresses access the report, more than there are subscribers, don’t forget people alo use iPads, cell phones, etc. all under the same user name.

    For those forwarding more than a report or two, Gary has kept the price reasonable so that everyone can subscribe. By stealing the reports, which is what you are doing, you disrespect him and his efforts. That’s not good Karma to have out there for someone who undoubtely has made you many times the subscription fee in profits.

  8. T.J. Rand

    Gary-

    I know this is a naive thought process…but the need for your post really pisses me off. I am appalled that any subscriber would be so unethical as to forward your newsletters on. The price is more than fair, and anyone who would steal the content simply doesn’t have character. And you shouldn’t have to offer $ to get folks to behave ethically.

    And as for subs that forward on a sample issue or two- I even have a problem with THAT. Gary, you are good enough to offer access to the archives and a number of those are free- enough to see how your letters work. If those free reports and the recommendation of a friend aren’t enough for someone to subscribe, then the reader is hopeless. And if someone doesn’t have $200 for your newsletter, they should not be investing.

    Sorry for the rant, but it REALLY pisses me off when people take advantage of others in this way.

    Whew…..

  9. Poly

    Gary is a businessman first, he isn’t here for charity. He does a superb job obviously, but the post is also about business and a smart move at that.

  10. vuvvy

    Eventually when too much people are using the same system it stops working. Everyone needs to keep that in mind when forwarding reports. You’re only hurting yourself, and stealing at the same time!A trait many successful traders have is that they NEVER share their trading methods.

  11. catbird

    Shalom,

    (this got lost at the end of the last thread)

    Thank you for the info. I’ve never switched brokers but I think the time has come to go with IB now that I’m using margin.

    Stupid question that I didn’t see answered in their FAQ: When I close my account at Scottrade, is there a way I can carry over the cost basis in my shares to IB?

    In other words, what I don’t want is to have to sell my positions, cash out, and thus lose my “strong hand” status.

  12. ALEX

    INTERN

    That question really isnt easy to answer,unless I go by personal experience. GPL is now getting some serious volume, so I dont think anyone would have a problem unloading a few thousand shares if they felt the need. Its trading in the millions / day now.

    I have tried to quickly sell AXU ‘s top in the past and sold 3000 at a market order and got all the sell ‘lots’ within 2 or 3 cents.

    hope that helps,, or maybe someone else has a better answer. πŸ™‚

  13. Robert

    If you had a little more of a sophisticated site it would only allow a certain number of logins to the nightly/weekend reports, and also they would be in a format where the text and charts can’t be copied and pasted- this is pretty standard in the internet whole nowadays for services such as yours.

  14. Jayhawk

    Cat-

    They will move the funds with your positions in tact. You will be off line for 2-3 days meaning you won’t be able to see during the transition but your positions will hold.

    I’m switching some of my stuff to Options House. I see a lot of people like IB…I may look into them as well. TOS is a rip off imo.

    TJ-I didn’t see the harm in sending a report to a non-TA buddy who is a gold & silver bull. I’ve been talking about Gary’s site for a few years and cycles…So it’s good for Gary’s business to inform others. Most people don’t buy in…I know it took me a year or so to trust the method. I’m pretty sure Gary’s got 5-10 or more subs because of the word I put out there.

    I highly doubt this is going “mainstream” and as a result “it wont work anymore!” By the time it does, the bull market will be over.

  15. DG

    I posted NLR as a trade right at its low yesterday. I never know if anyone takes any given trade idea and don’t want to clog up the board with useless info, so if anyone takes one, feel free to ask a follow up question. On that one, since it’s just a toy, I am planning to hold until the gap fills (or break even…whichever comes first)

  16. Ryan

    I was just pondering about the move in silver last night and I thought normally if I wasn’t old turkey (new thing), I would of most likely sold a couple of days ago to lock in profits. So then we have yesterday after the big dump, I would be so thankful and patting myself on the back and of course I probably wouldn’t have bought anything back thinking it would drop a lot more. So I thought what would screw the people that sold or got stopped out yesterday? If we started going back up again today and not look back causing people to chase again. Oh it would be nice if that was happening now but of course we won’t know until later.

  17. Leilani

    Gary. Just to let you know what some of your subscribers might be doing…. I do share the subscription with my husband. We are a team and have joint accounts. We also have two desk tops and 4 lap tops.

    We have done well with our investments largely thanks to you. We have also learned a lot about investing. In terms of giving away your premium reports, we have share one or two premium reports PLUS a link to your site to friends and family. A few of them have signed up for your service.

    We respect your work and your fee is so affordable.

    Please people – don’t ruin a good thing!

  18. Ryan

    Catbird,

    You just need to fill out some paperwork at your new brokerage house and ask them to transfer what you have in kind.

  19. Avann

    Robert, there’s always a way for people to steal content … screen prints would work as a last resort.
    Bottom line … people should be subscribing. I shared with a friend for a week … people need to see current content to be convinced … and then told him to pay up for his own sub.

  20. Gurvir

    Robert,

    It’s impossible to stop people from copying the reports. Even if the select or right click is disabled all you have to do is hit the print screen button on your keyboard and you can paste it in a word doc.

    The most you can do is track the IP the usernames are coming from but even that wouldnt be helpful as some access the site from various locations work/home/cell/internet cafe etc.

    I personally think Gary is charging too little for his advice. If the annual fee was $1000 people would be less likely to give it away for free or they might split the subscription $500/each.

  21. Rebecca

    I second Vuvvy’s opinion. You are only hurting yourself by stealing.

    Hi Gary,
    Is it possible that the PM cycles will be changed if enough people follow them. According to quantum physics that to observe is to disturb it is certainly possible. Will you ever consider closing the subscription to new members and limiting access to the blog at one point in the future to preserve the viability and validity of your analysis?

  22. ALEX

    Jayhawk

    Curse you…you’ve jinxed my KOG!

    I think its just a gap fill and I bought it below the gap, but I wanted to sell and buy more P.M.’s SOON.

    You are a very bad man πŸ™

    (J/K obviously)

  23. Avann

    OH and BTW … my friend … cheap bastard did not subscribe … some people are very very cheap. I don’t send him anything any more … not even advice.
    I say GOOD … like vuvvy says too many people might spoil it for us.
    I say keep it quiet … sorry Gary … it’s a great service and I don’t want to share it :).
    If you you don’t have enough subs to make it worth your while … raise the price … I’m happy to pay it.

  24. Razvan

    when Gary is ready to “retire” i think he should close off membership to new subscribers and keep the existing ones with a higher premium. This will save him a lot of time from having to enter to member data and answer all the noob questions regarding every minute aspect of investing.

  25. Robert

    Gurvir,

    I’m aware that you can print the screen and copy and paste it in a word document- I just don’t think as many people, probably much fewer, would be taking the time to do that versus just highlighting and pasting. It would take considerably more time because you’d have to do many screen shots and make sure they don’t overlap.

    That said I personally don’t share my investing ideas with people because I’m not done buying and do believe in supply/demand.

  26. Avann

    I personally think this blog should also be members only. I believe strongly that the member content is just as valuable and that non-members who can see all this chat might think … why subscribe when I can just read it on the blog?!

  27. TZ(5288)

    I don’t understand you guys who want to ‘negotiate’ margin rates with your broker. Here’s how it appears to me:

    You’ve been doing business with someone for years and found out they are screwing you over.

    Instead of dumping them hard, you look around and ask others who is honest and fair.

    Then you go back to the broker that is screwing you over and ask them to be more fair and nice like the other brokers.

    They say “oops…sorry that you caught us. *Mistake* on our part. What if we screw you a bit less – closer to those honest guys?”

    And then you guys say “Sure, I guess that’s better”

    It’s unbelievable to me.

  28. discreet shopping

    Re:”If the annual fee was $1000 people would be less likely to give it away for free ” – I think that the higher the price the MORE likely people will share. Please don’t give Gary any crazy ideas! πŸ™‚

  29. pimaCanyon

    TJ, I agree. Gary’s nightly report is the best deal on the planet, we’re paying peanuts compared to what he’s helping us make in the PM markets.

    It’s great if we can let our friends know about it, but if they are too lazy to read Gary’s free reports that he always has available on the premium site or too cheap to fork over $25 for a month’s sub to give them real time access, then let them eat stocks.

  30. Avann

    Yes … if the price gets too high then people will just form groups and share the cost … there’s no way around it … just stop sharing it please.

  31. Jayhawk

    I like the private forum idea.

    Gary-you do give a ton of insight via these blog posts about what you are seeing. Also, you post “portfolio change” on the public blog and in the comments someone will say “nice job switching to SLW over GDXJ” or “so are you adding leverage to 130% now”, etc. I know a few folks try and weed through the public blog for tips. I’m sure end up wasting a ton of time responding to guys like TimandJennie and MLMT coming here dropping fear bombs on the subs.

  32. Shalom Bernanke

    I don’t think anybody should forward any copies of SMT. Gary makes enough known in his new post each day to see that value and bring in new customers. Sending out the private report is theft, plain and simple, and if caught, Gary should cut them off permanently.

    What kind of person can’t afford, or refuses to pay $200/year? And for those that are very, very cheap…fuck ’em, it doesn’t mean Gary should be stolen from.

  33. basil

    Couldn’t agree more with Vuvvy!!!

    The more people follow this blog or subscribe the more crowded the trade gets. A blog needs to be a niche event. If it’s too crowded it will defeat the purpose of this blog, which is to make money for a select group of followers.

    If, at some point, the amount of subscribers (or of those who get to read the reports) grows beyond a certain means, this blog will become a contra indicator. So let’s not go viral, please!!!

  34. DG

    TZ: It seems to me there are many things you do not understand, either because you do not understand human nature, or you are so locked into seeing things your own way that you cannot relate to other perspectives. I would find it “unbelievable” how you can be so, but I have met others like you over the years and I for one try to learn from the world around me.

  35. Shalom Bernanke

    Gary, if you let people send out some reports to supposedly get you more business, it will get abused no matter what they promise. If I caught them one time, I’d clip their subscription for life.

    Just like trading allows us to bend the rules “just this once”, letting people distribute any more of your work than the homepage report will only get abused.

  36. Gary

    I’ve gone round and round as to whether I should comment on the blog, especially if it pertains to info only available in the nightly reports.

    On one hand I don’t want people to lose money or a profitable position even if they aren’t subscribers, but on the other hand many of you are paying for the newsletter so it’s not fair to comment about the nightly reports here for everyone to see.

    From now on if you have questions about the nightly reports send me an email and I will try to answer your question.

    I will no longer comment about subscriber content on the blog.

  37. pimaCanyon

    the private blog sounds good for us subs, but may not be the best business idea for Gary.

    Here’s why: I read the comments on this blog for two or three months, mainly looking for Gary’s comments. Then I signed up. So the comments on the blog are what convinced me to sign up, and I suspect other folks may have done the same thing–looked at these comments for a while before signing up.

    The thing is: there are a ton of newsletters and private blogs out there. Traders want to know they are not signing up for yet another hit-and-miss newsletter. So this comment section may serve the purpose of convincing prospective new subs that Gary’s nightly report is indeed a good deal.

  38. Jayhawk

    Well…I apologize Gary for doing that a couple times with my one friend. He’s a fundamental analysis guy so it’s like a deer in headlights when I talk cycles and TA to him.

    I log on here from home, coffee shop, work etc…

    DOC also told us it was ok to send a report or 2 out to a friend so I figured Gary would be cool with a one time deal. Like I said, I’ve brought some good people here and will continue to do so…I don’t even want the rebates.

  39. TZ(5288)

    GARY,

    Big flaw with your pay site:

    The newsletter pages (the text) are behind the login screen. A person must login to view the text.

    BUT, the images are on a different config on your server where they do NOT require a login to retrieve.

    Thus…If a person copies the text and links from your site to another person, that person will be able to retrive the charts without having to login.

    Example: this is from last night’s report:

    http://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/gold-PF.png

    anybody reading here can bring it up – no login.

    Talk to your tech guy.
    Tell him you want the charts(uploads) under the same login/password config as the text pages.

    You should also then keep track of the number of views using each login. Any user showing 2 or 4 or 7 views each night is clearly sharing with multiple people.

    Just turn them off and refund the difference. (On the subscription or main site page say you “reserve the right to cancel subscriptions”).

  40. basil

    Gary,

    I understand your point, but that’ll diminish the quality of the blog quite a bit and I for one wouldn’t know why I would then visit this blog at all.

  41. fubsy_cooter

    Gary,

    I’m sorry that you’re dealing with that aspect of doing such a great job. Its troubling how common it is that people take advantage of good faith efforts by acts of disprespect and greed. My sense though, is that in general those whose actions are not in integrity have a lesser ability to manage their thoughts and emotions, and that those who act in integrity are going to be more able to understand and profit from the human emotions of greed and fear as they play out in the market place.

    I want to say that I appreciate your work. 200.00 a year is a steal. I’m sorry that you’re finding it necessary to offer your newsletter for less in an attempt to curb theft. Hopefully this will increase your legitimate readership as you hope.

  42. TZ(5288)

    Yes, it is impossible to always prevent someone from copying, but you can make it harder than a simple copy and paste (which is all it is now due to the images not requiring a login) so that the person having to do the work each night might say “hey, get your own sub cause this isn’t worth it for me”.

  43. DG

    oa92: I plan to hold until the SPX makes a new high, or unless the mkt shows me a reason to sell. If I were bearish I’d have flipped it when we were up 1%, but I’d rather sell at break-even now and take a shot at a bigger gain.

  44. Pseudopersona

    Is there a way through blogger that allows you only to view comments with a password? Other than that, I vote for the blog to be hosted on the pay site. Your running commentary throughout the day is a wonderful service and should not be free to the masses, but I for one, would greatly miss it. I am not the type to send an email – since I often don’t know what my question is until I see it verbalized by someone else and answered by you.

  45. Shalom Bernanke

    I really believe you were doing a pretty fine balancing act Gary, between what to share and what extra the subs get. I also read your blog for awhile before subscribing, so understand you need to offer up something to potential subs to pique their interest. You’ve done well there, and the $5 offers for mini-subscription is great to close the deal for anybody that wants to go the next step.

    Personally, I would be very stingy with giving friends access b/c not only did I have to pay (and they don’t), but it’s also screwing the G-man over. if we ruin Gary’s project or give him incentive to quit, then what do we have?

    People that give away the SMT are screwing me too, and I HATE criminals to the core, we all know that! LOL

  46. basil

    Gary,

    I do also understand that you want to grow your business, but I do believe that, as you grow it, it’ll become less valuable. I mean, silver will go to the moon regardless, first and foremost you are following a trend and don’t producer the trend. However, your approach to trading in and out of the silver bull at certain cycle points will become obsolete, because too many people will think and act the same way.

  47. Avann

    Gary, instead of not commenting on the blog why not make it members-only?
    Is there any value added by allowing non-member access?

  48. Gary

    I often get questions on the blog that determine what I write in the nightly reports. So you are welcome to comment as you like. If it’s something that needs to be answered I will just post that I will answer it in that night’s report.

  49. David

    “Sharing” other people’s work is stealing. If you’re doing it you’re a common thief.

    What’s worse is that Gary has been very generous on the public blog. If you read it for any length of time you know that $200 is pocket change compared to what he’s helped he’s made for everyone here.

  50. basil

    what would be the value to an open blog if there’d be already a subscriber blog? What subscriber would care to post on the open blog? Who’d be there to talk about what? If Gary doesn’t comment and no subscriber leaks information to the open blog, that blog would be entirely useless and obsolete.

  51. Pseudopersona

    Also, since you are the leader of this community, you are the voice of reason that we hear above all others. If you leave us to our own devices, a power vacuum will develop when there is a panic and we might accidentally start listening to the loudest voices like mlmt and beanie. I probably would have sold out of my position 10x’s over if you hadn’t come on here talking everyone down every time.

  52. ALEX

    MFN looks really good with todays activity.

    Also, to chime in on the subject of Blog ,Subs, etc

    I have in the long ago past subscribed to Clive maund, and one other newletter & Gold report that I will leave nameless.

    Then I saw a report on Kitco I beleieve by “Toby Conner” (Gary) and it led me to this blog after time. After reading this blog through July, I then decided to sign up, because i saw that Gary COULD and would take the time to answer any questions. No matter what the question, he tried to answer it. THAT helped me to see that he had conviction in his sub reports ( Clive would answer emails, but it got to be too much for him, I think). So seeing this, AND on the blog I heard about and read his free reports -I subscribed.

    The trouble with answering the quesions through email, Gary, is that on here, one person asks, and others with the same question are satisfied. Answering through email , you will answer the same question 100 times. 5 different questions lead to 500 emails from 100 different people. agghh

  53. basil

    Gary,

    good suggestion, and lot’s of notes for you to make as you go through the blog, because there will be lots of questions. πŸ™‚

  54. Pseudopersona

    Yeah Basil, I didn’t mean have the blog hosted on the pay site and here. I meant have an open comments/forum area on the pay site where Gary could comment instead of on here.

  55. Gary

    I’ll just try to use my best judgement. If people are freaking out over something I consider of no consequence I’ll do what I can to calm the situation. But I’m not going to discuss cycles or sentiment on the blog anymore.

  56. blammo

    Good points pimaCanyon, I agree with you.

    I have actually known about Gary’s blog for a few years (found it through the Slope) but it wasn’t until the 3rd quarter of last year that I became a subscriber.

    As I became more interested in the PMs I found myself visiting the site more frequently. Eventually, the positive remarks from the blog were what sold me on Gary’s service and I haven’t looked back.

    I was also made aware of the Doc’s site at the same time as Gary’s but it was definitely Gary’s public blog (and the free reports) that sold me. If you ask me, your blog is your best marketing channel.

    Having said that, you can garner enough info from the blog comments to parse your overall thesis, *especially* when people ask pointed questions about your reports. Subscribers/commenters need to keep that in mind.

  57. Piotr

    Gary — how about drawing a line in the sand and only offering new subscriptions to people recommended by the existing ‘old’ subscribers?

  58. DG

    Gary: I appreciate that it is very annoying for people to forward your stuff, and I can say I have never once sent a single item, yet I believe the current model is working well overall. I too read the blog for some time before subscribing. It is irritating to have people steal the content, but the actual damage is small outside of the annoyance factor. If it gets too widespread, or if you get so popular that you start moving markets, that’s of course a problem. But otherwise, like shoplifting, it’s a cost of doing business. Trying to get shoplifting too close to zero will just lose customers and create new extra headaches for the store owner. Reminders, scolding, pleading, death threats, etc. from time to time should help. I am NOT suggesting it is not reprehensible, but we don’t want the cure to be worse than the disease just because its existence is so irritating.

  59. Razvan

    on a side note, i want to ask every one to chip in so we can buy MLMT a subscription to Garys service. This way he can hopefully learn not to short a bull market.

  60. Ryan

    Gary,

    I have to say that I come to blog to read your comments along with several others. It does add extreme value to the subscription and I don’t think it should be free. I think it should be private. I feel that a lot of nightly newsletter information is already leaked on the blog. I mean it’s already enough for a teaser with your public posts. I think a lot of people are getting enough information from the blog without subscribing because I know I was. Honestly, I wanted to subscribe because I didn’t want you to stop and I wanted to give something back to you. I think it’s a good start if everyone would not disclose anything in the newsletter.

  61. mamaloshen

    Another option would be to charge non-subscribers to Gary’s letter a reduced rate for participating in this blog, say $50 per year. Those individuals would find out what people were investing in, and perhaps hints of what Gary was saying, but that would be about it.

    I think most of these people would end up subscribing anyway. I was surprised to learn non-subscribers could access this blog for free.

    Gary, I don’t think you would want to get involved in answering dozens of emails every day. You have enough on your plate it seems to me.

  62. pimaCanyon

    Razvan,

    Nice idea re MLMT and subscription.

    However, the jury is still out regarding his short position. Gold has not yet tagged its early January high.

    (‘course, I don’t know where MLMT has his stops, so he could be out of the trade already. But he did comment yesterday that he thought a close below 1396 would be good for the bullish case. We did not get that, so he may still be in his short trade.)

  63. Gary

    Poly,
    Yes indeed. There is a reason silver has been so strong for 7 months. There are obviously supply shortages developing. I doubt that the meager little rise to $34 was enough to bring a ton of supply to the market.

  64. fubsy_cooter

    DG,
    Excellent point, and I agree wholeheartedly.

    People, Gary is obviously shrewd (in the positive sense). I trust him to make appropriate ecisions about this blog. I see nothing troubling about having this forum open to non subscribers. Gary has just said he will curb his content a bit. I, like many other came her prior to subscribing…it actually only took me a couple days to buy a one month subscription and since then I’ve been on the yearly plan.

    Anyway, Like DG said, for the most part this format works well. And for those of you lurking and piecing together bits of info to stealthily benefit from the pm bull, let me tell you, for 200 bucks a year you can have the keys to the kingdom. Nuff said.

  65. Gary

    I just checked CA numismatic and sure enough Englehard bars are out of stock. The last time I saw CNI out of silver was at the bottom of the crash In Nov. 09.

  66. Rebecca

    Hi Gary,

    How about two blogs, one for the subscribers and one for the public. If all the newsletter related questions go private, you will end up having to answer the same question many times and the subscribers may miss the opportunity to learn from you and each other.

  67. blammo

    Alex, I bought GPL (GPR for me) at 3.02 so I’m back in the money and you are out of my bad book (for now), LOL.

    I didn’t add yesterday unfortch, must be my mental arthritis acting up again.

  68. TommyD

    All,
    Yesterday I talked with a my local coin dealer about his business demand for silver.
    He is very satisfied that silver flies off his shelf and he’s in a weekly turnover now. His explained that if the world heads back into recession/depression that the need for silver will plummet due to economical supply and demand.

    He treats silver as a hot potato.

    Gary, I am lousy at debates but does he have any validity here?

    Tom

  69. Yash

    someone gave defination of swing high as lower high lower low and yesterday it was higher high so no swing high but on gld i see high of 138.20 stockcharts on day before yesterday and not yesterday so why can’t yesterday be lower high lower low making 138.20 swing high

  70. Gary

    Tom,
    Silver will follow gold. When gold drops down into a D-wave so will silver. At some point price will move up high enough that a bunch more supply will come back into the market. I don’t know what price that will be but I doubt it was at $34.

  71. Elaine

    Editorial comment…

    I deal with copyright issues all the time. The fact is that the material is copyrighted by Gary, anyone who uses it in any way that he does not intend, and does not condone can be sued. I know this is not what Gary wants to do, but this is his material.

    I recently had to redo a website for a client who’s original designer used copyrighted images without permission. He is still in court fight a $25000 (yes $25 thousand) legal battle.

    Don’t ruin if for the regular subscribers and have Gary change his mind about offering his advice. I honestly don’t think he needs our money.

    Thank you.

  72. Nike Boy2008

    Yash,

    GLD and $GOLD are a little different..

    GLD is only stock market hours hours from 9:30 to 4 EST whereas $GOLD is 24 hours

    my guess is that – the high made yesterday by $GOLD was before the market opened at 9:30 EST and hence GLD doesn’t show.

  73. ALEX

    Blammo

    good to know, I hate being on the bad list πŸ™‚

    I was telling Dg that with GPL ( and you can check your GPR chart)..

    It never REALLY goes under the 10 sma when it gets running well,only when it had the Jan correction. So if you want to add to your position , you can add the next time it goes to the 10sma as a mental note ( to fight mental arthritis πŸ™‚

  74. TZ(5288)

    Gary,

    This will solve most of your problems VERY well. Please read:

    -blog run on your own site with your own software/programming (not too difficult)

    -only people who register can post. This allows you to cancel or block anybody who gets out of hand. (All subscribers are or course already registered and can post).

    -blog posts are publicly readable (with exception, see below)

    -blog posts are SELECTIVELY (by YOU) settable to SUBSCRIBER ONLY. Any post with this setting is only visible to a paid subscriber.

    Regular users (who have signed up to post, but not pay for newsletter) can’t read those entries.

    -When a non-subscriber sees an entry like this it says “Visible to subscribers only.”

    (ALTERNATELY: you might even customize the software so the first few words or sentences are visible with “… To see remaining post, please subscribe”. This can turn your and other posts into even better ‘teasers’ of what the free person is missing.)

    -As the blog owner, when you are reading the blog, you have a special “Subscriber only” button next to each post. When you push it, the post flips to “Subscriber only”. Whenever you see a post which you think gives too much away, you just push the button and it stays there but becomes blocked publicly.

    This solves the vast majority of everybody’s issues and the programming involved is not too difficult (If it is, then you have the wrong guy.)

  75. Jayhawk

    I feel like an ass now for passing a few to my buddy who completely ignored it. Hope everyone who is upset can forgive me. I emailed Gary and apologized…He told me he was fine with what I did and he’s more concerned about a few he caught sending every report out to a bunch of people. I told Gary to feel free to cut me off as Shalom has recommended to any and all violations. I truly thought it was fine because Doc had given the OK and my HEART was to help out Gary. I have a lot of respect from him and learned a ton…Those from Kitco will be able to attest to this.

    Anyway, David, Shalom, DG, TZ and others who think what I did was theft, I ask for your forgiveness.

  76. TZ(5288)

    OH…and if each subscriber is only allowed to be logged on to ONE computer at a time, then they can’t follow along during the day on the “Subscriber Only” material and still give the login to their friend as well.

    The continuous nature of daily access by most of the serious investors would prevent them from allowing another person to have their login.

    And of course they would not be copying and pasting the subscriber content/posts repeatedly during the day to 3 or 4 of their buddies as each new post comes in.

    It really solves a bunch of your problems but maintains a public blog which most generally seem to feel is beneficial.

  77. T.J. Rand

    Jayhawk-

    Gary’s the big toe on this site, so if he’s OK, you’re aces with me…of course, a 1 oz silver maple leaf would help guarantee my lifelong forgiveness :-0

  78. Avann

    TZ … I would never share my password but I do log on from multiple computers daily.
    I have computers in my office/kitchen/livingroon … etc
    It would be a pain to always logout and relog every time I move to a different location.
    Something I would have to live with I guess …

  79. Dan

    Sharing any part of the subscription material is stealing, period. Any excuse or reason or explanation why its OK is only trying to rationalize what you know is wrong. Its really not that difficult.

    If you think you are Gary’s “marketing arm” by sending your buddies copies, your wrong. You are still stealing without his permission. Give Gary their name and let HIM send the complimentary copies to entice them to subscribe if he wants.

  80. Shalom Bernanke

    Jay,

    No sweat, and I wasn’t suggesting you get cut off, just a new policy for the future. Besides, you were straightforward about it, so your intentions were obviously in the right place.

  81. TZ(5288)

    AVANN/GARY,

    >TZ … I would never share my password but I do log on from multiple computers daily.
    I have computers in my office/kitchen/livingroon … etc
    It would be a pain to always logout and relog every time I move to a different location.
    Something I would have to live with I guess …

    The single login at a time restriction could be SINGLE IP ADDRESS at a time instead of SINGLE LOGIN.

    All the computers at one location are usually on the same IP address as viewed from the internet.

    Problem solved.

  82. ALEX

    Jayhawk

    In my opinion, you have been more of a contributor to this site in a positive way. I ,for one, have appreciated your charts and posts.

    Tz

    I read your recommendation to update the site…but with you saying only subs can see their own posts , but non subs can still post,I wonder why they would?
    You said…”-When a non-subscriber sees an entry like this it says “Visible to subscribers only.”

    And also I imagine some non-subs do currently add to the post beneficially- by answering technical questions that subs may post on the site. If subs post in a ‘sub only’ forum, they may not receive the best answer to questions not related to Cycles theory…no??

  83. Gary

    Like I said I don’t mind if anyone sends one or two reports out to a friend or associate. You don’t even need to ask my permission.

    I would just prefer not to have every report copied and sent out to 5, 10 or 20 people every day.

  84. Power Corrupts

    Perhaps some of us have greater respect for intellectual property than others???!!! Here is the written policy of one newsletter I subscribe to: “{} newsletters are protected by copyright law and intended for the use of one individual per subscription. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited and will result in a non-refundable cancellation of your{} subscription.”

  85. Gary

    Marinho,
    Unfortunately there is no right answer to that one. Maybe gold does correct here and maybe it has one more leg up before the correction.

    Maybe the correction when it comes is a very mild affair lasting 2 or 3 days like in Aug and Sept.

    It’s even slightly possible that yesterday was the cycle low.

  86. Jayhawk

    OK Dan. You must be with out sin in your life. Contrats…I’ve always want to meet a perfect human being.

    As for me, I didn’t think it was wrong at the time, but now have apologized to Gary personally. It wont happen again, and by the way he said it was OK TO DO THIS IF I WANTED TO SEND A REPORT TO A BUDDY. GOT IT, he GAVE ME PERMISSION TODAY.

  87. Avann

    Power Corrupts … that’s great and don’t get me wrong but that would be like buying the same book or movie twice just so me and my spouse could both read/watch it.
    Sharing a newsletter with your wife/husband is a little different then sharing it with friends.

  88. Shalom Bernanke

    Well, lowtax and me didn’t get our morning follow through weakness to add. I mentioned that this is the worst case scenario (not nabbing more at lower prices), with miners gapping up and running higher from there.

    Still, it doesn’t feel too bad for the 2/3 of capital I do have invested, and bodes well looking ahead. Silver is a train that can’t be stopped.

  89. David Kafrick

    Lack of respect for intellectual property is something that disgusts me.

    Not only that, but whoever is sending out Gary´s reports, don´t seem to realize that trading is a ZERO-SUM game. Why do you think your trading account is increasing? Where do you think that money comes from?

  90. TZ(5288)

    ALEX,

    You have some misunderstandings. Let me clarify.

    Gary would have a blog that would work almost EXACTLY like this one:

    -ANYBODY can post (they just have to sign up)

    -ANYBODY can read WITHOUT signing up and WITHOUT posting, but they *cannot* read SINGLE posts that are marked as “subscriber only” by gary. Only paid subscribers (who are logged in, from a single IP address) see the text of those posts. All public readers and free-registered public readers will, instead, see a note “This post is visible to subscribers only.”

    THUS…MOST of the blog and MOST of the posts will be visible freely and publicly by anybody – just like now. But instead of people having to email gary specific paid-type questions, they can just post them and gary can respond but make his response “subscriber only”. All his other responses which are not ‘top secret’ can remain public just like now.

  91. Gary

    Geez it seems like this is a bigger deal to others than it was to me.

    I think we can give it a rest now and get back to the markets.

  92. TZ(5288)

    And if gary thinks a person has posted info revealing subscriber material, like if I said:

    “Hey gary, when you told everybody to sell all their GDX last night and buy GOOG, why did you say to only do it if GOOG closed below 122?”

    Then gary could do two things:
    1) he can reply but make his reply “subscriber only”
    2) he can LEAVE my post on the blog, but flip ot to “subscriber only” as well.

    Yes, it would be up there for a bit and a few people might read it and understand whatever he said the night before, but the damage is minimal and much less than now.

  93. David

    Gary, I’m sorry to learn that your services are being misused!

    I appreciate your running commentary on the blog throughout the day and would greatly miss that. I am not likely to email for every question I have that is often answered here thru patience.

    Much of the information people discuss is interesting; however, I could see limiting comments on the blog to subscribers only. Registration could be set up thru the website or on the blog.

  94. Jayhawk

    “Why do you think your trading account is increasing? Where do you think that money comes from?”

    Tim Knight’s account? I read more people out there on the deflation, metals are in a bubble, this technical indicator says sell silver, etc. You really think a couple hundred people on a blog are moving markets? We a a tiny little fraction of the trade. The total global investment % in pms is like 1.5%

  95. Pseudopersona

    Althought I do think Gary’s solution is the simplest. If we ask him a subscriber only type question, he will say – I will answer this in the nightly report etc. The problem is we talk to each other quite abit about “restricted information” on this thread. We need to start self policing a bit. If someone asks something that subscribers should know, we need to just say to them – “Gary has covered that in the nightly reports.”

    All that being said, it would be nice to have a small forum area on the pay site where we can all talk to each other about restricted topics.

  96. Shalom Bernanke

    Good point about the zero-sum game, as well as intellectual property being the same as any other property.

    Of course when somebody gives out a password or report they are giving it to friends, but that does not make it ok. Nobody would post it on a public discussion board, or give it to people they don’t like.

    Gary has helped many of us in a big way. It’d be great if we could return the favor by making sure he’s able to keep focused and earn what he deserves.

  97. Beanie

    Very interesting day.

    Market, pm’s and oil all up. Next week, we’ll see who the are pretenders.

    Btw, next month’s unemployment report should be dazzling. We could see SPX 1450-1500 this year.

  98. Dan

    Jay,
    No need to be so defensive, I was not targeting you or anybody else. I was simply stating a fact that most here know to be true.
    In fact your reaction shows you probably knew it to be true too.
    You seem like a reasoned guy and add much to this blog, so I have no doubt your intentions were good. But facts are facts and you or anyone else rightfully require Gary’s permission.
    But now you have Gary’s permission so all is well.

  99. David Kafrick

    Jayhawk,

    It´s the mentality that I am talking about. If 1 person does this, it may not make any difference, but if everyone thought like this, then that would make a difference.

    I am sorry to say this, but trading is a war and your money has to come from a loser. If every profitable trader wanted to help as many losers as they could, we would all be losing money and the brokers would be the only ones with money in their pockets.

  100. Jayhawk

    True, I fessed up on the first post of the thread to admit I did it. I could have lied and not said anything.

    Anyway, I was just making sure I apologized to the group and Gary for my mistake.

    Back to the market…Beanie-I thought the “FEAR TRADE” was off! Why is silver back up today. You need to grab some SLW before it’s a runaway freight train.

  101. Steven

    Anyone know how long it is in the benefit of the banks that need to deliver gold or silver to keep the price down? It is today only or Monday and Tuesday as well?

    Thx.

  102. David Kafrick

    By the way, I am not talking about you Jayhawk…

    I am just talking about the mentality behind all of this. Sometimes people forget that you can´t be a good samaritan in the markets. You can use the money you won from the markets and then use it for charity or whatever. But to take money away from the markets you need to want to crush the losers.

  103. DG

    Just to be clear: My trading system does not deal with exits. I got the buy, and it has already worked so that’s great. But my plan for getting out is more seat of the pants. Trading is asymmetrical: you can wait forever to take a position and do so only when everything lines up just right, but once in, you have a decision to make at every moment whether you want to or not. I have decided to hold my large SPY position for a new SPX high (or stop out at cost), but that’s just my thought at the moment.

  104. Nike Boy2008

    I agree with David…it’s the mentality

    if one person steals 5 cents, is that a bad thing? maybe not

    what happens when 5 million people steal 5 cents? maybe that’s bad

    what happens when 5 million people steal 5 cents 5 million times?

  105. Steven

    Gary,

    You should have had this special a long time ago. I’ve referred a small village to you! But you’re worth every penny and then some!

  106. DG

    David K: Is that right [zero sum] in equities (It is true with options). If a stock goes from 5 to 50 because the value of the company has increased, is there a loser other than the few shorts? Shares represent a %age of ownership, so if the value of the company goes up and the stock then does, who loses? There is lost opportunity for the founders who went public, but other than that? For myself I never think about crushing some other guy. I try to have a sense of the crowd’s animus for contrarianist purposes, but that’s it. I feel what you are saying when I play poker but not at all in trading. Interesting

  107. David Kafrick

    oa92000,

    I am looking at the ratio between advancing issues and declining issues, and comparing that to the ratio between advancing volume and declining volume.

  108. pimaCanyon

    Jayhawk,

    If your intent was to let a potential sub know the value of this service and to get him to subscribe, then IMO, you did nothing wrong.

    I think it’s the repeated sending to the same person that would be questionable, but even then it sounds like you were doing it to try to get them to sign up.

    You’ve apologized to Gary and to us. Accepted from me, certainly. And sounds like from Gary too. If others can’t accept your apology, that’s all you can do (I’d say it’s their problem at this point.)

    Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I hope you’ll stick around. I appreciate your posts and charts.

  109. David Kafrick

    DG,

    You are right that the stock market is not a zero-sum game, it is more like a ponzi scheme.

    But futures markets is totally a zero-sum game, actually less than zero-sum because of trading fees.

  110. ALEX

    TZ

    OK. And also if Gary see’s something that needs addressing ,he can always just reply in the nightly report.

    OTHERS

    I just want to post this…F.W.I.W.

    When I feel a low occurred ( like I did in Jan 25th area, I look back at the last run (say Aug to Nov) and notice various things.

    For one, I noticed most of my stocks slammed down on Aug 24th, just like they did yesterday, but it eventually looked like a shake-out…so here’s the point/I use not to worry or be shaken emotionally.

    Looking back at AUG to mid Oct, off the bottom and upward , the GDX Rode up and never really closed below the 10 or maybe I should use 14 sma for more than a day (and rarely). It Did get slammed there, but only closed below it 1 or 2 times in those 10 wks.

    Yesterday we did the same and bounced, so maybe that was it.So look back at AUG into OCT, that was a great run, but this should be stronger. I expect at least the same or better. So far since Jan low…no break of 14 sma by GDX , so far as good or better πŸ™‚

  111. hiptwist

    David wrote

    “Lack of respect for intellectual property is something that disgusts me.”

    Me too. But I’m quite sure that people who forward postings on a regular basis don’t have the right mental setup for trading and are therefore not successful with it.

    “don´t seem to realize that trading is a ZERO-SUM game.”

    This is only valid for futures. With stocks there are real companies behind which create value (at least most of them) and may even pay dividends.

  112. Jayhawk

    Silver looking bull flaggy. Just for fun, measure the flag pole from the start of the move up and we have an 8 point target. (42)

    /SI

    My little pea brain wants SLW to get a weekly close over this line. We are right there for now.

    SLW

  113. Steven

    Gary,

    I understand your concerns about discussing the premium reports on the blog but I find some of those discussions to be the most helpful. You may discuss various possibilities for the next day and then people can ask (e.g., the dollar today). I would much prefer to see the blog closed only to subscribers. I think your reports (not the premium ones but the public ones you put out every few days – i.e., the “new post”) is more than enough for people to decide to subscribe. I personally did forward your nightly report to a number of people (each once only) but solely to convince them to sign-up and each of them did within days as they were amazed at your information. Just some thoughts.

  114. Rod

    Has anyone looked at GSS lately? It’s down to that 3.12 level. Seems like a cheap stock to have in ones account considering where its come from! Thoughts anyone?

  115. Gary

    Rod,
    There’s usually a reason for a stock to do that. With these juniors it’s often a secondary issue or third or fourth….

    Another reason why I don’t choose to buy individual miners.

    Just like I’ve warned over and over about leverage one can’t take large positions in any mining stock, especially juniors. A mine flood, labor strike, nationalization, or expansion of the float can cause huge one day moves down.

    If you ignore me on this one day you are going to wake up and find your account cut in half or worse when something unexpected happens.

  116. David Kafrick

    Even in the stock market, which isn´t a zero-sum game, you still need people to make foolish decisions for you to win money. If you buy a stock it is because you think it will go higher than where it is trading right now, so whoever is selling you the stock, even if he is not selling short but simply selling a stock he owns, is losing money in the sense that he is selling it for the wrong price.

  117. Rod

    Gary,

    Understood, was just looking around when I came across it and was wondering what was up. It’s trading 10,000,000 shares today.

    Thanks.

  118. Poly

    David K, you’re right of course, but let’s keep it in perspective.

    Collectively, this group and whoever else we share this information with account for no more that one single pimple on an elephants’ ass and that’s being generous.

    As we’re already invested, if anything we’re doing our part to stir up the speculators, whom are now required, to drive this home.

    BTW, Silver just got it ALL back, WOW.

  119. ALEX

    MFN getting serious here.

    Energy moving today strong…

    DG ,did you buy my GMXR nat Gas pick yesterday? up 10% today πŸ™‚

    -‘SD’ & ‘Hero’ very strong. KOG filled the gap and moving up…and

    selling BRNC here

    FTO possible target $36, Bought FTO

    Nog, etc etc etc

  120. fat boy

    i agree with blammo on the blog and access

    your free snippets and even some answers to nightly report questions on the blog are great for subs and probably just act as teasers for non subs

    i would recommend only fixing the things that are broke like the access and not messing with the fundamentals

    i access site from phone pad and pc’s

    non subs comments on the blog are key to get people in and discussing – being part of this community and hopefully more subs for you

  121. rapper

    GSS- I think its going back from whence it came…
    I owned it and traded it in the 3s to 5s but got rid of it because it was a dog compared to everything else I owned. I would wait for it to head in the other direction. Rallies are being sold pretty hard. Although you could take a BB crash trade on it.

  122. DG

    vuvvy: how accurate is this USERX divergence? Would it be a reason, on its own, to buy a little today? Did you buy any PM’s based on it?

    Alex: Nat Gas was a one shot deal for me. I do expect it to go higher, but now with all the SPY’s I just added to my PM’s I am low on investable funds. I need to dump some GPL to raise cash for NG, right?

    Ryan (I think it was you). If I may, regarding trading: Don’t look back at UNG. If it goes to 7, great. Someone else will make something on it. You did right by selling a loser. If you look back and focus on the ones that went up after you sold them you’ll never sell a loser again! Once it’s gone it’s gone. If someone offered you an even bet where you would win only if you flipped three heads in a row, you’d decline. If you then flipped three heads in a row it doesn’t mean you did the wrong thing in declining. UNG’s action from here is now irrelevant.

  123. RacerX

    I concur with a couple other comments about checking the report from different devices. I will typically check the report before bed on my iphone. And will check from either home and/or work during the morning and night. So I could be coming in under 3-4 IP addresses..

    But yeah if people are copying & emailing the report that’s not good.

  124. pimaCanyon

    Thanks to Gary and to everyone who posts here. Not only is Gary’s nightly report the best of the best, but this comment section is pretty cool too, a good place to learn and share.

    Have a great weekend all!

  125. hiptwist

    David, when you trade stocks it’s a zero sum game. When you invest in stocks for the longer term it might be easier. Think Buffet…

    Theoretically the price for a stock is the value of the company plus some future expected revenues. This is valid for the IPO and later too. So someone selling or buying just gets or pays the “correct” price for the stock at the time. Holding the stocks for some time hopefully gives him some of the expected revenues in form of dividends or price appreciation.

    We both know that the “correct” price for a stock is almost never the price you have to pay currently at the exchange. It might be higher or lower.

    Or as Ben Graham once said it much better, that in the short-term the stock market is a voting machine, while in the long-term it is a weighing machine.

    And now back to the silver bull πŸ™‚

  126. mamaloshen

    Rod,

    Re GSS, this had got to be one of the worst stocks (if not the worst) in the entire universe of gold mining shares. They made 31c in 2006 when gold was $600/oz and have hardly made any money since. Now announced a loss. If a gold producer can’t make money at $1400/oz they probably shouldn’t be in the mining business. Share price is the same as 2006 incidentally.

    I bought at $4.31 a few months ago, rode it all the way up to $6, and like an idiot didn’t cash in. Finally got out last week at $4.16, but would really have got hammered if I had held on. Put the proceeds into PZG which has done fine.

    Unless you are a superb trader I would avoid it, plenty of better opportunities. They say bottom pickers often end us as cotton pickers, so be careful.

  127. Wes

    DG,

    As you’re aware, I allow myself one stock for investing- a best idea.

    Usually, I’ll put about 40% of my account in that stock initially, but after that it can vary widely depending on results. Currently, I’ve sold just over half of my stock position because I think it will be dead money this year, but just fine thereafter (a longwinded way of saying it went up too much last year IMHO).

    I will use the balance of the money for my best timing idea. Right now I’ve hijacked Gary’s silver idea.

    Between the two of these investments, I’m about 110% invested.

    I will go to 150%, or even more, if I’m convinced I’m buying at/very near a daily cycle low. Yesterday was nowhere near clear enough for me to go all in with silver.

    If I do add this extra 40%, I will use it as a trading amount, and sell on any hint of overbought conditions, going back to 110%.

  128. DG

    Thanks, Wes. I didn’t know (or didn’t remember) that you concentrated that much. I love seeing how the experienced players play this game. Have a great weekend.

  129. Otis

    Gary,

    I’m a little late to the discussion on sharing of subscription material. I agree with other members that say it is wrong. Period. Your blog entries provide plenty of material for people to make a good decision if they want to subscribe. In fact I read your blog for 2 months, before deciding to subscribe.

    Also, as many have voiced, as a subscriber I sometimes wonder why so much “subscription” material ends up being posted on the blog. Regardless, I am happy to pay my subscription, if only to reward you for all the hard work you put into what you do. One idea that is a hybrid on the private blog idea is a blog using wordpress that allows you to make certain entries public, with public comments, and other entries are password protected for members with private comment thread. I know EW is not your thing, but here is an example of a great blog using this setup.

    http://pugsma.wordpress.com/page/2/

  130. Ryan

    DG,

    Yes that was me regarding UNG. I’m not kicking myself that I sold it yesterday and if it happens that I sold it at the bottom so be it. I’m not looking bad, no need to put that emotional drag on myself. Funny, I sold UNG and put it in AGQ in the morning and then well you know what happened. But hey look at it now, that position is already in the green. I definitely sleep better at night knowing the funds are in AGQ vs UNG.

  131. Ryan

    Gary, Jay,

    Regarding your comments about SLW testing the 10 day trendline, I’m assuming we’re just going to sit tight? The upcoming earnings is also in the back of my mind.

  132. Gary

    Ryan,
    I’ve learned my lesson a long time ago. When I’m confident an intermediate bottom is in and gold is in a C-wave advance I don’t take chances.

    I just sit tight until I think the C-wave has run it’s course.

    Anyone who can do that will most likely post 50-100%+ gains during this final leg up. If you get cute and think you can outsmart the bull I can virtually guarantee you will not only underperform but you may even lose money.

    If you aren’t emotionally able to do that then I suggest you just buy physical silver and hold it until it looks like the C-wave is over.

  133. Ryan

    Gary,

    Thanks, I’m definitely trying to be less emotional. I really have to thank you, if it wasn’t for you constantly drilling in my head about who cares if you buy into strength or pulling the trigger, I wouldn’t have the positions I have now. But obviously I would be a much happier camper if I just went all in when you gave the go. I would like to add more but I think I’m just going to sit on my hands for now and probably add when you give the go ahead.

  134. Tim and Jeanene

    Gary –

    What is your email address? I know the guy at http://www.TradeSavin.com – which is like the Groupon service for signals.investment newsletter stuff. He might be able to up your subscriptions a bit and you can use the $50 or so to pay him. He has a pretty good list.

    I will see if you guys can get in touch. It will help your business to work a deal with him.

    Now you know I’m not just an attacker. πŸ˜‰

  135. Silverman

    Looking back on Thursday’s action I can safely that without Gary’s guidance, the blood in the streets would have normally been mine. Instead, I bought a 100 shares of AGQ at 171 even though my account was tanking big as I did so. There were clearly some big players moving the silver market. I was amazed at how the bottom dropped out in a matter of minutes. That had to be a coordinated play. Anyway, thanks again to Gary for his steaady hand.

    I would also like to give a shout out to John Townsend over at the TSI Trader. I give John the credit for getting me back on the bull last August and eventually pointing me in Gary’s direction to learn how to ride it. If you’re looking for some new trading ideas here’s his link. John, like Gary,is also a very good teacher (literally).

    http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/

  136. kmisak

    Gary, earlier in today’s thread you warned against holding individual junior miners.

    Your comment today worries me a little. Since discovering HZU it has now become my #4 holding, but I have two juniors, GPR and SLX as my top two (SLW is #3).

    Here is my question: at what point is a large individual holding too large, in your book? As my #1 holding, GPR is 22% of my portfolio. I’d hate to let it go; I’ve played it since it was .58CDN, but your comment earlier…

  137. Gary

    K,
    Originally when I had about 10-12 juniors (before GDXJ), no one position made up more than 5% of my portfolio so no one position could do any serious damage to me.

    I know exactly what’s going through everyone’s head with these juniors. You think you can sink a big chunk of your portfolio in one or two of this lottery tickets and make a quick fortune.

    Unfortunately more than likely what’s going to happen is you get on board one of these high flyers and then once it starts to stagnate the momentum crowd abandons ship for the next flash in the pan. If you don’t get out in time you end up riding it back down or worse some bit of bad news comes out and it drops 30-40% overnight.

    Ask yourself how happy you will be if your portfolio took a 30-40% hit one day.

    AGQ should give anyone more than enough beta and since its a derivative of silver you aren’t going to have to worry about company specific news effecting the stock. All you have to worry about is timing the top of the C-wave and the supply and demand fundamentals in the silver market …which we’ve already determined have an imbalance that only higher price can correct.

    It’s the same ole story. Greed jumps on your head and causes you to do something you wouldn’t normally do if you were thinking straight.

    Remember this is the same emotion that destroyed the financial system. Don’t let it destroy your account.

  138. Bob loves Hawaii

    When I read articles about the dollars demise and trade settlements outside of a reserve currency, I wonder if people truly understand money. People the world over have borrowed dollars into existence to carry trade our currency. It is just like naked shorting in our market, and when there is a true risk off crisis that Ben is unable to print to solve, all of the dollars will need to repatriated, and they simply vanish, giving the dollar apparent strength. The move higher will be breathtaking, even if it is brief. We caught a glimpse of it in 08, and will see it again (probably Gary’s D wave)

    Bilateral trading/settlement agreements are unwieldy and inefficient. China has printed more Yuan than the U.S. has printed dollars, so we will see how long that lasts before they spar over value.

    This is a political statement, nothing more.

  139. kmisak

    OK, Gary. Thanks. It’s great to get some one-on-one advice from you. I will continue to increase my HZU position – but I’ll keep some of my GPR for the ride πŸ™‚

  140. vuvvy

    pit down, userx up has been about 90% correct since 2001 yeilding on average a 15 point gain in gold in a 2-3 day period.I did add a little.

  141. Slumdog

    Gary said, “There is a reason silver has been so strong for 7 months. There are obviously supply shortages developing. I doubt that the meager little rise to $34 was enough to bring a ton of supply to the market.”

    The lease rate for silver is so out of whack, it’s irresponsible not to recognize there’s something that needs out of the box thinking to explain.

    What ideas do you have as to why this lease rate is so large, through the Kitco-posted time frames?

  142. Silverman

    Bob LH,

    I have March SLW 35 calls which are profitable at this point. I don’t have much experience with options. What’s the best approach, in your opinion, for managing these. Should I just sell them before they expire? I think I read where you said you can roll these over into April. What’s the advantage to this? How is this done? Can you do it electronically or do you need to contact the brokerage?

    Any info you can provide is appreciated.

  143. DG

    Thanks Vuvvy. Sorry you posted after the AH market closed or I’d have added a little. Looking forward to Monday now though.

  144. Bob loves Hawaii

    Silverman, first of all congrats about being in the money on these and profitable. I like to keep my purchased option out at least 45 day, why? the closer you get to expiration the faster the premium of the option in excess of the strike price goes away. so when I said I rolled mine forward, I sold my 32’s on Tuesday, and for me I bought April 43’s, for you take Gary’s advice and stay in the money with a higher delta, like April 37’s, just buy less contracts.

    I sell calls against these so I use a different strategy and like being OTM in a bull market.

    Example On Wednesday I sold March 44’s against my position as they were short term overbought, and closed that hedge this morning for net $900. I will do this five or six more times before I either roll to May or bail out when Gary gives the D Wave high sign.

    I hope that helps, and also to understand what I am doing.

  145. jabalong

    I’m late to the discussion, but as a new subscriber just wanted to add my two cents to the question of the blog vs the newsletter.

    Like others probably I read the blog for months, before finally signing up as I wanted to get the whole picture. I’m very happy I did, but I still find the blog extremely useful as I search through for Gary’s comments.

    I think the back and forth with members really brings out a lot of good stuff. The best way I think to preserve it, while not undermining the paid newsletter is to touch on things here, but with a lot of “I’ll expand on it more in the next premium update” type comments.

    That way it keeps the nice flow of the blog, while continually promoting the subscription. Anyone who reads the blog long enough and sees value in the discussion ought to eventually want to sign up for the subscription as it provides the roadmap to the whole discussion.

    As a new subscriber, I can attest to its value, as I feel like I have a much clearer view of the discussion than when I was only privy to the blog. The subscription gives you the roadmap to it all.

  146. catbird

    Well, today I set the wheels in motion for my Interactive Brokers account. I initiated a full position transfer from my former (exorbitant margin rate) broker and I should be ready to go in 4-8 business days.

    Thanks to Shalom, Jayhawk, et al for the tips.

    TO ALL WHO DO NOT HAVE THEIR ACCOUNT AT I.B.–
    They have the lowest margin rates for retail traders. I’m talking under 2%. Not uncommon for places like Schwab and Scottrade to charge you 6-8%.

  147. Silverman

    Bob,

    Thanks for taking the time to explain. I guess an OTM approach makes sense in a bull market as long as you allow enough time as you describe.

    You clearly know what you’re doing and I clearly have a lot to learn. For now I’ll stay conservative with ITM, sell my calls at at a reasonable profit and try not to get too greedy.

    BTW, it was one of your posts that turned me on to the SLW calls so thanks for that as well.

  148. Done

    Personally I followed the blog post, then dug into the comments for about a month and it was the overall quality of everything put together that made me sign up. I think that led me to sign up for the year sub thinking “I’ve gotta hear what he has to say in his paid subscription”

  149. Ryan

    Gary or anybody else that can answer this question. I just read an article in Canadian Business which says the silver to gold ratio is historically at 55-80 and thinks that silver is overvalued since at the time of writing the ratio was at 50. But as of right now it’s at 42. Any thoughts on that?

    Also, the article also stated warning everyone to only put 5% of their portfolio in PM’s and that we’re in a bubble right now and to watch out when it bursts. From the sounds of it, still a lot of people questioning this bull, which I think is really good. This leads me to believe we still have a long way to go and not even close to the maniac buying yet!

  150. Beanie

    Paul,

    The reversal in pm’s yesterday was no fluke, imo. Today was probably a bull trap — an oversold bounce. Of course, in some super bull markets yesterday’s action could be a nonevent and the bull continues. But in light of the unstoppable bull market in equities, it is likely the top in pm’s is already in. There is only so far that pm’s and equities can move higher together. As the stock market continues to move higher, pm’s will collapse or trade sideways. After all, pm’s are investments based on fear and thin market and not much else. I see next month’s employment numbers are going to be surprisingly good. Investors are more positive these days and are re-entering the market, albeit slowly. Even with SPX at 1300, most people have not bought into the equities rally of the last two years. As surely as day and night, they will come back. I’m very confident equities is where people ought to be invested.

  151. thedocument

    Gary,

    I believe WordPress has a comment system you can activate within the subscription area. Private comments have been one of the most valuable features within my own Member area, so I’d highly recommend finding a way to do that.

  152. Gary

    Beanie,
    Answer a question for me. Why do you think gold is a “fear” trade? From Oct 02 to Oct. 07 the stock market rose almost 100%. During that period we had an incredible economic expansion, granted it was phony and based on a real estate and credit bubble, but still I think it’s safe to say there was very little fear during this period.

    Gold also rose 100% during a period of virtually no fear.

    When there was real fear during the crash gold was also sold heavily down into it’s 8 year cycle low. It certainly didn’t work as a fear trade during that period.

    Now since March of 09 the stock market has again risen by over 80%. Other than the brief period last summer when deflation started to take over again. I think it’s safe to say there has been very little fear. The sentiment indicators bear this out and have been pegging bullish levels equal to or greater than what we saw at the 07 top.

    So again very little fear. During this period gold has rallied another 100%.

    So I have to ask what metric are you using to determine that gold is a fear trade?

    Gold is simple protection from the Fed debasing the currency. Any half way intelligent person can understand the need to protect their wealth from Bernanke. Some people do it by buying the stock market. Some people do it by buy gold.

    Gold has been the better protection because it has beat beat inflation by a wider margin. If inflation really starts to get out of control – like it is now gold will vastly outperform stocks because gold has no profit margin to get squeezed.

    And silver has been twice as good as gold.

    So would you care to explain how you come up with the idea that gold is a fear trade…well other than the fact that any half way intelligent person is afraid of what the Fed is doing to our currency. But then I think we can all agree that fear is completely justified.

  153. basil

    I don’t know why there are still people here encouraging Beanie to expand on anything. He has been wrong time and time again, decimating his own account and trying to help others decimate theirs. His recommendations have been not good at best. He was bullish into and all through the bear market calling tops again and again when the market kept crashing. When the stock market finally turned the corner he recommended solar stocks as the one sector to be in; as everyone should know, solars were some of the very few under performers for the next 1.5 years, staying way behind the S&P. Beanie comes here and puts out the same one-liners, over and over, doom-ish on PMs. He does it, I believe, simply to annoy people and because he gets a kick out of being unpopular. Or he hopes to find some one who actually asks him to expand on his doom-ish one-liners. Why would anyone here still keep him engaged in conversation?

  154. Silverman

    Doc,
    No disrespect intended, but I believe you would compromise the wonderful interactiveness of this blog with that approach. Some of the other approaches suggested in this thread are better options for Gary & his subs, IMO.

  155. Paul

    Gary, I understand your statements of “fear” but do you agree with Beanie that investors are buying PM in the now b/c of fear of currency collapse? Educate me b/c I do buy bullion out of fear.

  156. Gary

    Paul,
    If you are buying out of fear what are you afraid of? What is the thought process that goes on in your head when you pull the trigger to buy gold?

    For me I see the price of gas go from $1.60 to $3.50 and I think I’ve got to do something to protect my purchasing power.

    Or I see the price of oil go from $35 to $102.

    Or I see my insurance rates hiked 40% in the last two years.

    Or I see my grocery bill go from $350 to $450 a month.

    Those are all signs that the value of my money is being debased and I need to protect my savings buy converting my cash into something that will stay ahead of inflation.

    Gold and silver have done a wonderful job. Stocks have done OK up to this point if you sold the top and bought the bottom.

    You are getting killed if you didn’t get the timing right. (Beanie is getting killed in stocks because his perma bull bias prevented him from seeing and getting out of the way of the bear market.)

    Gold and silver will continue to protect against the ongoing currency debasement regardless of whether you time the tops and bottoms correctly.

    The stock market will not because just like in the 70’s inflation eats away at profit margins. This is why stocks are not in a secular bull market. It’s the reason why Beanie is going to get killed again when the next leg down in the secular bear begins. he’s incapable of learning his lesson so he will ride the next bear all the way down also. And his wealth will take another huge hit from the combined effects of inflation and the secular bear market forces.

  157. Paul

    The fear was QE3 and so on. I see your point. Thank you. What happens if QE3 happens will the D-wave be delayed or will it happen regardless?

  158. Gary

    Paul,
    There is virtually no chance QE3 will happen.

    The dollar will already be crashing into the three year cycle low. Inflation, especially energy and food prices will be going through the roof. The stock market will already have rolled over under the pressure of surging inflationary forces.

    At that point QE3 will only accelerate the collapse of the stock market and economy.

    I’ll bet 10 burritos there will be no QE3.

  159. Poly

    What’s the time limit on QE3 bet?

    No chance it will happen in 2011, but once that dollar rallies, unemployment and manufacturing turn down again, I don’t see how you avoid QE3 in 2012.

  160. ALEX

    DOC

    No offense meant here either,really, but when I subscribed to your site, I only saw 1 or 2, (maybe 3 or 4 occasionally) personal blog posts and interactions there, but the same subs there were mostly on this blog talking.

    i would see Jayhawk comment on there , and maybe 2 more, but this blog has 200-300 posts. Your private blog had 4 (which I would say is why you often find yourself reading this one too πŸ™‚

    It might hinder good input and a more well rounded forum. Heck, even Garys response to provocation posts like Beanie are giving others something constructive to consider.

  161. basil

    Gary,

    I’ll take you up on that bet, if I may, just for the fun of it. While I think that you might be right, the fact that you’re some times pretending that you can foresee the future is reason enough to bet against you. There are just as many reasons for QE3 as there are against it. The fact that you recognize a bull trend in PMs and that your cycle work makes sense to some degree should not lead you to think that you can predict the future.
    So, I’d be glad to take you up on this bet, just because.

  162. thedocument

    Alex,

    I was referring to the comment system in my Member Area, which is quite active, and the comments are much higher quality than what gets posted in any public area. I believe that if Gary put a comment system in his subscriber area, the comments would be more focused on topic and therefore much more valuable to readers.

  163. T.J. Rand

    I’ll take the burrito bet πŸ™‚ Won’t really change my investment thesis since I’m mostly all in PMs.

    I’m with you on the dollar tanking, but I think the recovery will be exposed as a sham and $ will be needed as stimulus, and QE is the only play the Fed has to try to keep T-Bond rates down.

    The other worry I have is the $500 trillion (I think the # is in the neighborhood) in notional derivatives outstanding…the largest exposure at JPM and HSBC and nobody knows all the counterparties. I believe that the Fed is very much aware of these (as well as commercial RE problems), and QE is increasing bank reserves as a bit of preemptive pump priming.

  164. Gary

    Let me be clear before we make this burrito bet. There will be no QE3 until after everything crashes down into the next 4 year cycle low (probably sometime in 2012).

    After that I fully expect Bernanke to make the same mistake all over again and run QE3, 4 & 5. It will have less and less effect. The brief economic recoveries will get shorter and shorter until finally they break the currency completely.

  165. ALEX

    Doc

    oh sorry, I was a subscriber and only saw 1 or 2 posts under your daily articles. Maybe I wasnt aware that you had a regular subscriber comment area. THAT would have been worth looking into.

    As I said, I saw your articles, and then a few posts under each article, then I came over here and saw the same guys on there discussing investing more extensively here.

    sorry if I missed that subscriber designated blog area…i would have loved that.

  166. ALEX

    By the way DOC

    When I said…”THAT would have been worth looking into.” I certainly didnt mean that THAT blog would have and not your articles..your newsletter was too. It was very informative, and the recent one posted on Safehaven was excellent too!

  167. thedocument

    Ya, Gary’s public area is much more active because he has 5-10X the traffic. Once a critical mass is hit, the commenting explodes. I was on that path until the blog was interrupted for a year while I worked on Citi’s prop desk. Then since I started the Member Letter, I no longer post daily on the public blog. Cycles are so central to my analysis, it’s just difficult to come up with a public post without talking about them… but that’s the purview of the Member Letter!

    In any case, I much prefer the private comment area. As Gary is well aware, public comments fill up with senseless personal attacks whenever a forecast is incorrect. No one is going to be right all the time, and besides, success has less to do with predicting correctly than with trading correctly. I think serious traders understand this, and those people tend to be subscribers.

  168. mamaloshen

    Basil,

    I don’t agree at all that Gary is sometimes “pretending” to see the future. I think he is just looking at what’s going on now and making a logical deduction as to what will happen based on the Fed’s actions in the past.

    Personally, I thought there would be a QE3, but I hadn’t taken into account a collapsing dollar. If Gary is right about the $USD and accelerating inflation (and I think he is), even the Fed wouldn’t be stupid enough to initiate another QE program. It will happen probably but only if the economy and stock market tank. The timing for that is not this year but next, possibly 6 months before the U.S. elections. So 2012, just as Gary says.

    Anyway, even if I disagreed with Gary I wouldn’t bet any burritos since I’ve never had one and don’t even know what they are. Are they related to Cornish pasties?

  169. T.J. Rand

    I just can’t see the Fed having a gap between June 2011 and 2012 with no POMO. So I expect QE3 (although it may have a different name, it will be the same thing) has to commence before the end of 2011.

    So 10 burritos it is for QE3 (in form if not name) by the end of 2011. If I lose, I will need to either visit Vegas (always a great time) or invite you to an as yet undetermined country to collect. We’re giving serious consideration to moving outside the US…but that’s a discussion for a different time.

  170. Razvan

    “…I wouldn’t bet any burritos since I’ve never had one and don’t even know what they are. Are they related to Cornish pasties?”

    haha
    you dont know what youre missing my friend!

  171. mamaloshen

    Razvan,

    The problem is I live on the wrong Continent. I googled it just now so found out what it is. They do have fajitas in the supermarkets here (U.K.) which seem similar and I like them. If you’re ever in Cornwall someday, try a pasty. Delicious, though not as spicy.

  172. ALEX

    DOC

    That last part of your comment was dead on! Subs are less likely to antagonize and ridicule and endlessly needle their service provider, and you said

    ‘success has less to do with predicting correctly than with trading correctly. I think serious traders understand this’

    True…and really , isnt it the end result time and again that really matters.You and Gary do provide those results for your subs.
    have a good wkend! -I’m out πŸ™‚

  173. basil

    Gary,

    you are just too cocksure about something you don’t know, and that’s why I’d be happy to take this burrito bet. Again, not because I think you’re wrong, but because you’re just overconfident. There are some truths you and others can know (PM bull – that’s obvious isn’t it?), but to predict what Bernanke will do and when exactly is just too bold to let it slide. You’re not saying likely, maybe, probably, but you have that Attila style certainty. So burritos, yes or no?

  174. Razvan

    mamaloshen
    i figured youre probably not in the US. you can make it yourself if you have the pita bread. You just have to make sure you have sour cream , guacamole, and cheese on it and you’re good to go.

  175. Gary

    Basil,
    Months ago when I said the dollar would collapse back down into it’s three year cycle low. Everyone at the time said I was wrong.

    Well it is collapsing down into it’s three year cycle low. As long as that process continues then it will be politically impossible for the Fed to continue with another round of QE without seriously risking the viability of the dollar.

    Maybe I’m wrong about Bernanke, but I don’t think even he is stupid enough to run another round of QE if the dollar is in full on crash mode.

    So I think not only will the dollar drop down into it’s three year cycle low but it will also rally sharply out of that three year cycle low (usually at least a year) and it will be because inflation has spiked so high and the dollar crash has become so scary that Ben will have to stop printing.

    So yes the bet is on. No QE3 until the market starts to disintegrate again and the dollar recovers considerably from the three year cycle low.

    My best guess is it won’t be till at least early 2012 before Ben will be politically able to crank up the presses again. And it will take at least 6 months to a year before he can get the stock market turned back around. During that period stocks will put in the third leg down in this secular bear market and gold will have put in it’s D-wave.

  176. basil

    Bernanke might be wrong about his fiscal policies, but an idiot he is not. I don’t think he believes that the market is ready to stand on its own feet; if he withdraws money supply he would have to consciously accept the market meltdown, which would likely follow. I don’t think he’s that wacky. The only man that can pressure him to hold QE3 is the President himself, and him doing that would imply that Obama too would consciously accept a market meltdown. How likely is that in a pre-election year and with approval ratings at historic levels.
    Having said that, I don’t think your theory is off the table, I just wouldn’t bet on it like it’s a sure thing. I bet on higher silver, because it’s a simple bet and a sure one.

  177. Paul

    Gary, I ‘m sure you heard of the saying “go out on a limb because that’s were the fruits at.” I think with your guidance and the input of your subs I’m going to be a better investor. I’m going to subscribe. I don’t have the the reference email though. Can I just tell you who it is here?

  178. Gary

    basil,
    I’m actually going to talk about this in the weekend report. Go look at the period between Oct. 07 and July 08. Bernanke was running the presses full steam ahead in the vain attempt to stop the credit and real estate bubbles form bursting.

    Tell me if he was able to prop up the stock market?

    I can save you the trouble he was not able to prop up stocks. As a matter of fact his printing just spiked the CRB and accelerated the stock market decline.

    QE3 will not prevent a stock market collapse it will exacerbate it.

  179. basil

    I guess it all comes down to the question whether inflation is high enough this June for Bernanke to back paddle from QE or whether it still feels manageable enough to him and the administration to go ahead and to at least announce QE3. He might announce QE3 (perhaps on a smaller scale) but say that QE will most likely end there. Means, he could further inflate the markets, but change to a more hawkish stance. This again might limit the downside risk to the dollar and to the market. This way he would at least try to balance between two evils.

    As for the dollar, I never doubted when you said it would go down into a three year cycle low this spring. I actually banked on it. Nevertheless, the dollar is at around major support now. It might bounce around here long enough despite dollar bearish policies, because they might all be priced in. If the dollar drop below it’s support however (a 60:40 chance in my book), how low will it actually go? You seem to be talking about an outright collapse, but I think Bernanke might get away with a say 10% drop or so, and I think he’d even appreciate that, because he believes a lower $ is good for the US economy.

  180. David

    They don’t have burritos in the UK?

    I sense a business opportunity — maybe we can bankroll a Frank & Fina’s franchise out there with our PM profits.

  181. basil

    Gary,

    I didn’t suggest that there won’t be a correction in stocks (30% is what I expect), but I’m not so sure it will be a full blown collapse (I give that a maybe). I am therefore not suggesting that B will prevent a stock market drop, whatever the scale; I am suggesting that he might be trying anyway by continuing with the money printing, which he has always believed in.

  182. basil

    Gary,

    PS: When I say dollar might bounce, I actually meant bounce back and forth, up and down support for a while. So I’d say: 60% it’ll drop below support, 25% it’ll bounce up and down for a while, and 15% it’ll climb from here.

  183. Gary

    Basil,
    Three year cycle lows aren’t about lines on a chart. They are about fundamentals and extreme sentiment.

    The fundamentals were already in place with QE1. QE2 just made the situation much worse.

    Dollar sentiment right now is dead neutral. We have a long way to go before we reach the kind of panic conditions that exist at a three year cycle low.

  184. mamaloshen

    Gary,

    Is there any way we can play the D-wave? Sounds like it will be pretty grim, to say the least. Pardon me if you’ve covered it elsewhere. I subscribe to your newsletter and remember your saying (maybe here, too) that you would never short a bull market, but silver could drop 30%possibly in 6-8 weeks. Obviously, you will cover it when we get closer to that point, just that I’m always thinking ahead. I wonder when oil peaks whether that might be the best sector to short (or buy puts on).

    David, they do sell Mexican food in supermarkets (I’ve seen the El Paso brand), but the selection is very limited. There is at least one Mexican restaurant in London, maybe others, but not a lot for a city of 7 million+. The Brits tend to go for Indian and Thai food when they want something spicy. A large Jamaican and W. Indian population, but very few Mexicans, so Mexican fast food might not go down well. Anymore than fish and chips shops would survive in the U.S.

  185. Gary

    Mam,
    I will look for some way to play the move down into the yearly cycle low. I’ll just look for a sector that is extremely stretched above the mean and doesn’t have sound fundamentals.

    Energy is definitely a candidate.

  186. Beanie

    I got FSLR at 40, and played STP and SPWRA as well. They all had a spectacular run (many made over 500% in a period of 1-2 years), but only FSLR stayed above $100 during the bear market of 2008-2009. So you tell me, was I happy and did I make money during the bear market?

    Unfortunately, that is how the pm’s will end, like STP and SPWRA when they went to sub $10. It was interesting to hear Jim Rogers recently say that silver was undervalued, yet nobody knows how to value silver or gold. Funny stuff.

    As inflation protection, dividend paying stocks are still one of the best ways for long term inflation fighting. Many people made a lot of money by buying beaten down dividend payers during the recent bear market.

    The equities market is doing well and will continue to do well. Btw, we may not have inflation, but rather an increase in demand of all commodities due to China and India wanting to be like us. Gold and silver are commodities too and they are thinly traded so it doesn’t require a lot to get them moving.

  187. Beanie

    Is gold a fear trade? Of course it is. Even George Soros don’t know how to value gold. He’s just in for the bubble ride, as he puts it.

    Many of you folks here have 100% of your money in pm’s. That is a sure sign of intense fear of everything else. Think about it.

    Let me narrow that down even more: Many of you here have ALL your money in silver. (Not the smartest thing to do, for sure.) Lots of fear, I tell ya. It isn’t that different from folks in Arkansas buying guns and ammos and building bomb shelters right after 9/11. “Get everybody down there, them Muslims are gonna invade us!”

  188. Bob loves Hawaii

    Beanie, I know you like to be provocative and simplistic, but in all seriousness we do not need to value gold or silver, everything values itself against them.

    Over millenium gold has bought the same amount of bread, which fiat has done that? which stock market has down that over time?

    You see gold and silver are money, and gold and silver miners are leveraged to money, and it takes me less work to consistently make money with these instruments than for you to make money in your approach.

    Until we get productivity increases worldwide that exceed credit (read money) growth, gold and silver are the place to be, and miners are leveraged to that.

    Best of luck to you.

  189. Bob loves Hawaii

    And I am David, in gold and silver miners. But when the credit collapses, you want to be in the metal itself.

    Unfortunately for us we are at the end of a multi century experiment with fractional credit creation.

  190. Beanie

    One of the surest signs of a top (and possibly THE top) is when people go “all in” on an asset class, as many of you have done on silver.

    The reason I believe pm’s are holding up here is because the big boys have not completely sneaked out of the backdoor yet. But perhaps they may have already done so. New speculators coming in on these thin markets can help prop the prices up a little longer.

    I recommend using some prudent asset allocation at this time. Certainly don’t stay all-in!

    As with everything else, when nobody can properly value an asset class that has been rising spectacularly (combined with people going all-in), you know the end is near.

    An inability to value an asset class may be a positive thing for pm investors because they don’t have to put a P/E on these things. All they have to do is talk inflation and money printing, and you can talk these things for a very long time. At least during the internet bubble people could see P/E’s of 200-500 so they can sell if they didn’t believe in the valuation.

    Be careful out there.

  191. David Kafrick

    Beanie,

    You are very naive. No one knows how the “real value” of anything, because there is no such ting as real value. PE don’t measure the real value of stocks, they are just a convention upon which people lean their perception of value, just like a dow:gold ratio is also a convention.

    People know the value of gold to the same extent that they know the value of companies and the value of any other stuff in the universe.

  192. DG

    Beanie: I really try never to get personal on this blog as everyone is entitled to their own opinion and everyone is entitled to respect. If I did not hold to that I’d be forced to point out that you are either a crank or a moron. I have been trading longer than you have been alive (probably) and am not in the slightest “afraid” of anything. Gold has been up year-over-year for ten years straight. That may never have happened in any other investment class in history. It’s a bull market! If you can’t tell that there is no hope for you. I am long silver because it is making new highs. Duh! Everything else is mostly irrelevant, frankly. My only fear is marrying an opinion so much that I become sufficiently blind as to become unable to identify what is a bull market and what isn’t, which has apparently happened to at least one poster on this blog. Don’t worry; I will never respond to another comment of yours as there certainly seems to be no point. Why you post is a mystery to me, but then my background is the study of human psychology and there are many odd forms of aberrant behavior and attitudes.

  193. Gary

    Beanie,
    No one will argue that everyone lost money in the bear market. The only way to make money in a bear market is by selling short. It’s why I was shorting drillers (I should have shorted solars also).

    But then again there’s no arguing that precious metal investors have made by far the most money coming out of that bear market bottom with the exception of a few companies that were on the verge of bankruptcy that got saved by government handouts or stimulus.

    Your inability to face reality will cause you to get caught in the next bear market also and you will lose it all again.

    By the way who has protected their purchasing power best since the Fed began debasing the currency in 2001. Stock market investors or precious metal investors.

    Be careful you don’t want to look at the Dow:gold ratio or your favorite misconception will get blown out the window.

  194. Gary

    That one’s easy. Because in 2000 the long term stock/commodity cycle reversed in favor of commodities.

    At that point stocks entered a secular bear market and commodities entered a secular bull market.

    Once this has run it’s course the long term cycles will flip again and commodities will enter another bear market and stock’s the next secular bull market.

    That will be when the Dow:gold ratio reverses and works it’s way back up to 40/50:1.

    You just have to be able to see the big picture.

  195. bamster

    Gary,

    You said that once the USD is done going down, its going to rocket up. Since I’m Canadian, I’m trying to limit the erosion that will take place with the falling USD against the CAD. I know you are not a currency specialist, but would you have any suggestions on or strategies?

  196. Gary

    Well for us here in the US all we have to do is sit in cash while the currency appreciates. But I may try to accelerate the gains by shorting something. You could probably do the same.

  197. Beanie

    Gary,

    To make a valid comparison, you have to start with where the secular bull market in equities got started. That was back in the early 1980’s. (And, by the way, the equities market was not in a secular bear market in 2000. The secular bull market that started in 1980’s hasn’t ended yet; you will realize that within the next 1-2 years. The real secular bear market in equities will start somewhere near the end of this decade.)

    And you have to add in the annual dividends of the Dow stocks since the early 1980’s.

    The Dow:gold ratio is thru the roof. And the Dow Jones isn’t done going higher yet. When all is said and done, one will probably end up doing the ultimate Dow:gold ratio at Dow 36,000 (which I believe is coming this decade). Add in the dividends since 1980. Gold is but a speck on the wall.

  198. mylifemytrade

    MLMT is still holding his fort strong… Average for my gold shorts is up to 1406 now… Sometimes moves get a bit extended price-wise and time-wise.. But eventually, laws of nature prevail.

    SLV puts are under water.. but they are quite far out in terms of time.. it is okay.

    GDX puts are in green as they were entered above 59.6 and I used the dip 2 days ago to do some position management.

    Also I would love if you can contribute and buy me a subscription to Gary’s blog… May be you can paypal me whatever a 6 month subscription costs… I am sure Razvan can afford it … after the killing he must have made in his PM and miner longs…. My paypal email is [email protected]

  199. DG

    MLMT: How is your average price now higher at $1406? Either you are closing out positions for losses and shorting higher or you’re averaging up on a so-far losing trade, which is potential suicide. What does “position management” mean other than those two options? Also, if the unnamed “law of nature” is honoring some chart pattern or other, as a life-long chartist I can tell you that if the fundamentals overwhelm the charts (i.e. collapsing dollar) all hell is gonna break loose on the upside.

  200. David

    If the Dow went to 36,000 tomorrow, the years 2000-2008 still meet every definition of a secular bear market.

    You can argue that we are in a new bull market, but you can’t redefine the meaning of basic investing terminology and insist that the years 2000-08 were not a secular bear market.

  201. Gary

    I got a burrito that says Beanie rides the next bear market all the way down.

    Any takers? Well besides Beanie who will be denying it’s a bear market even if the S&P is trading at 600. It will just be a correction in his mind πŸ™‚

  202. Beanie

    David,

    What kind of secular bear market trades sideways to lower for 9 years but continues to Dow 36000 within another 10 years? It’s not a secular bear market, that’s for sure.

  203. Gary

    Beanie,
    I’ll make you a bet. If we are in a secular bull market like you suggest then we shouldn’t see the stock market drop more than 20% (the definition of a bear market) however I’ll give you another 10%. So instead of 20% let’s say 30%.

    If the market drops 30% or more in the next 2 1/2 years you admit we are and have been in a secular bear market and you buy a yearly subscription.

    If by November of 2013 the stock market hasn’t dropped at least 30% from peak to trough at some point then I will transfer $500 into your trading account.

  204. Romeo Bravo

    Reality check for all:

    1. What kind of bull market exists which needs the government to pump billion of dollars each and every day, for months on end, into the US markets?

    2. What kind of bull market exists while no new industry is being created, in which millions of jobs have vaporized and no new ones on the horizon other than patches here and there (mostly due to government make work programs?)

    When I hear of fantastic new industries that will employ millions (of Americans, not Chinese to make solar panels for us) I will believe it. I live in the premier global tech hub of planet earth and I don’t think Google and Facebook will pick up the slack.

  205. David

    Beanie,

    Any market that trades sideways to lower for nine years is a secular bear market by definition.

    If it then goes to 36,000, that’s a new secular bull market.

    Again, you can interpret the facts as you like, but you don’t get to define the terms to fit your desired conclusions.

  206. Beanie

    Do you folks even know what a secular bear market is, before you try to trade it as though we’re in one? What kind of secular bear market are we in when it took the Dow just 6 years to get above the 2000 high?

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=0&o_symb=djia&freq=2&time=20

    The only way to make sense of it all is to think of the 2008 crash as similar to the 1987 crash but a much slower version. Nobody says 1987 was a secular bear market or the beginning of one. Although at the time many bears probably claimed so.

    Anyway, the Dow was just basing the last decade and is now ready to continue the ongoing secular bull market.

  207. David

    Beanie,

    The S&P returned 0% from 2000-2010.

    And adjusting for the depreciation of the dollar, it returned -30%. You still haven’t broken even.

    Not only is that a secular bear market, it’s one of the worst in history.

    Those are facts you can’t wave away. You seem to be holding on to this Dow 36,000 notion because the pain of admitting you’ve been wrong is too much for your ego.

  208. Beanie

    David,

    Obviously, Gary disagrees with you. One important component of a secular bear market is that it ends with a p/e of 5-7 historically. That is what Gary is looking for the next 2-3 years . Unfortunately, he won’t find it because p/e’ s are expanding again.

  209. Gary

    Beanie,
    At the bottom of the next bear leg or the one after that we will see that P/E’ ration under 10 just like every other time in history.

    So do you want to take the bet or not?

  210. David

    Beanie’s end of the bet should be that if he loses he has to go bother everyone on Tim Knight’s blog and leave the goldbugs alone forever.

    Beanie will never make good on his end, however. He’ll just insist that the bear market never happened.

  211. Gary

    The 47 to 66 bull lasted 19 years. The following bear 16 years.

    The 82 to 2000 was 18 years. We’re now on year 11 of the bear. This bear could draw out to more than 20 years like Japan if the Fed doesn’t quit making the same mistake over and over but historically it should be over by 2012 or 2016.

  212. Beanie

    Gary,

    Is that bet to show who has bigger ones? (I use Trojan Magnum, btw). πŸ™‚

    Someone wanted to make me a bet awhile ago at The Atilladons. He said $500. I said, “Why not make something more exciting. Whoever loses can’t show their face at the blog ever again.” He didn’t say anything, or maybe I missed a post. But I turned out to be correct about the market. And he was still there, for awhile anyway.

    Moral of the story? Don’t ever make bets.

  213. Gary

    The size of the bet is inconsequential. I’m sure you can easily afford a subscription and I can certainly afford to deposit $500 in your account. So mostly this is about who is correct. I think this will end like every other time in history. You think that this time is different. It’s never been different.

    So either put up or shut up πŸ™‚

  214. Gary

    Certainly I can say there is a bear market going on in that chart.

    What you’ve conveniently failed to show is the dollar. While this market has gone nowhere in 11 years the dollar has been devalued by about 40%. And that’s just against other currencies which themselves have been devalued. Against real money like gold the dollar has lost much more than 40% of it’s value.

    Without knowing the value of the currency it’s priced in that chart of the Dow is completely meaningless.

  215. fubsy_cooter

    The most interesting thing about this debate is how differently separate individuals interpret the exact smae information. I love this because it validates all the information I see and hear from the media, friends, colleagues etc…that don;t fit my view of the world. Thing is…I’ve been right over the past seven years or so. Its the imperfections of humans that lead to imbalances in markets that allow one to have an edge if they’re on the right side of the trade. So Gary et al..how do you know you’re right? You’re making money.

    Beanie, I suggest that if you desire credibility, which you seem to, that you post your trades in real time, and let us see how you do. If you’re right, you’ll make money. If not, you’ll lose money. If you’re rational you will use that data to stay your course or adjust. If not, you’ll be like millions of other traders who have stuck with their opinion in the face of overwhelming evidence against them, and lose money. Simple.

  216. Steve

    I am new to this blog and and have a lot to learn. For what it is worth, I appreciate Beanie’s contributions….. not that I agree with him, but because I am learning from the debate.

  217. Gary

    Yes it does seem that Beanie is unable to see they other crash in 2002 that “interrupted” his so called secular bull market. That was also a 40+% loss.

    Two 40% losses in one decade and only a marginal new high, and in inflation adjusted terms even that disappears. Not exactly the stuff secular bull markets are made of.

  218. T.J. Rand

    Gary-

    Excellent (and thorough) weekend post.

    Your reference to sharks – it’s only a short step from sharks to COMEX/JPM manipulation…might you be coming around to the dark side of market manipulation? πŸ™‚

    Just because we’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get us. (J/K, J/K)

  219. Gary

    TJ,
    I’ve never denied that there was short term manipulation in the PM markets. There’s short term manipulation in all markets.

    I’ve even showed people why and where it occurs at intermediate cycle bottoms so that big money can enter large positions.

    Where we differ is that the conspiracy theorists some how think that there is long term manipulation that is and has been holding back the PM markets for years.

    And what I’m telling you is that that is impossible. In a real bull market with real demand any manipulation of price below the normal level of the market will bring in more demand that will overwhelm the manipulation. This will cause price to rise faster than it would normally not the other way around.

    So if the Fed or government is or has been trying to hold gold down then they are a big reason gold is at $1400 instead of $1000 and silver at $33 instead of $25.

    It’s really just simple economics 101, too little supply + too much demand = higher price.

    Manipulation of price below market levels creates too little supply and higher demand.

    The problem that many emotional retail traders have is that they want what they want when they want it without bothering to look at the big picture. So if gold breaks below a key technical level at an intermediate cycle low the first thing they do is scream manipulation because their stops got triggered.

    What they don’t think about is that now big money has taken positions at that level so the market is now in strong hands.

    Sellers will no longer be able to drive gold below that level so the bull now has to go up, only now it has a whole bunch of chasers to drive it that just got stopped out of positions.

    A true bull market is bigger than any manipulation just like a true bear market is bigger than the Fed’s printing press… which I think we are about to see in the next year.

  220. David Kafrick

    I think there is a confusion about what manipulation is. Most here seem to think that any tactical move by a hedge fund or bank who is trying to maximize his gains is manipulation.

    Are we manipulating the market? If we look at most people´s definition we sure are. First of all, we are colluding with one another, then we are trying to wait for weak hands to liquidate their positions so that we can enter at a lower level and maximize our gains. Those weak hands could complain that we are manipulating the market since we waited for their stops to be triggered so that we could enter our positions at a lower price. But I don´t think this is manipulation, it´s just trying to outsmart the competition. The same goes for any tactical move taken by hedge funds and banks.

    I think that most people fail to realize that trading is a war, and a game where traders and investors are constantly trying to outsmart the competition and force them to commit errors. We don´t want to chase the markets, we want the other traders to chase the markets.

    So for me, the fact that a hedge fund puts selling pressure on the market to run tons of stops, so that he can then enter at lower prices is not by any means manipulation. It is just a very smart move. And then it is up to us, to figure this out and adjust our behaviour so that we cannot be exploited by the competition.

  221. T.J. Rand

    Gary and David-

    We are in absolute agreement about short term manipulation – and that the Banks, hedge funds, etc. would/have/will manipulate the market to their own ends. Hence the run on stops to add liquidity, and also the work by the JPM to deal with a significant short position in silver by both trying to unwind the position while (in my view) hedging it with a significant long position in copper. And short term manipulation is why you hear rumors of hedge funds attacking the limited physical silver controlled by the COMEX by standing firm for delivery, hoping for a cash premium to stand down. All short term manipulation.

    The only other issue, then, is one of longer term manipulation. I did some digging (not too much, I’ll grant you) and found that the 2 commodities with the largest net short positions (in terms of days production to cover) at the end of both 2009 and 2010 were gold and silver.(2009: 150+ days for silver, 100+ days for gold; 2010: 120+ days for silver, 90+ days for gold). Seems like the Banks accumulated the short position and are having difficulty in working out of them. Of real interest is why they accumulated such large short books on silver/gold during a bull market. Either they thought silver/gold was overvalued and getting more so, or there was longer term manipulation afoot…and some reason for it. I have difficulty believing that JPM et al, with their fingers on the pulse of the market ever believed that the fundamentals of silver/gold were terrible. These are (despite the naysayers) some of the smartest people on the planet. Doesn’t mean they are always right, but does mean that they are unlikely to do anything really stupid.

    As to a reason for longer term manipulation, I can hazard guesses but don’t have a strong feeling about it. But at the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter- my beliefs about the direction and trajectory of gold/silver are very similar to yours.

  222. Gary

    Why the large short position? That one is easy. Commercial players are regression to the mean trades. When gold and silver get stretched far above the 200 DMA commercials pile on shorts. It’s a very profitable trade but you have to have deep pockets to play that game.

    I would also point out that a big percentage of commercial shorts are miners hedging forward production into all time highs. This notion that JPM is flooding the market with all these shorts is just simply not true and a fabricated lie by the conspiracy theorists. The truth is that miners probably make up at least half if not more of all short positions.

    Are they also conspiring to depress the price of their own product?

  223. Elaine

    During the discussion about passing info to non-subs, I thought someone posted a link to another site that had referred them to Gary’s site? Maybe Jayhawk. Anyway, I looked at the site and forgot to bookmark it, it looked interesting.

    Please repost.

    Thank you.

  224. Jerred

    T.J.,

    How do we know that they are truly short. They could have physical to back the short.

    So they continue to press the paper short to accumulate the physical. Unwind the short, brings in new buyers for higher prices. Unload the physical at higher prices.

    Just a thought

  225. T.J. Rand

    We should find out as the results from the lawsuits filed in October come to light. The suit appears to be pretty specific in the % of shorts for JPM and HSBC in August 2008 – something that should be very easy to prove/disprove. From an October Marketwatch article:

    “Two separate lawsuits filed in federal court in Manhattan Wednesday allege that banks J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and HSBC Holdings manipulate the price of silver futures by “amassing enormous short positions. The suit says J.P. Morgan and HSBC in August 2008 together held 85% of the net short position in silver and by the first quarter 2009 held $7.9 billion in precious metal derivatives.

    J.P. Morgan and HSBC traditionally have been big players in the silver market. A CFTC weekly report for Oct. 19 (2010), the most recent period, shows that less than four market players hold 24.3% of all net bearish bets in the silver market. J.P. Morgan and HSBC are among those market participants, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing silver traders and a person close to the investigation.”

  226. jeff

    MF GLOBAL daily report found on kitco entered at 1330 with a target of 1375 then 1435 and now 1500 there potsitions are few and there calls seem to be very good. they also shorted this last decline from 1435 to what i am not sure.

  227. Beanie

    Gary,

    “What you’ve conveniently failed to show is the dollar. While this market has gone nowhere in 11 years the dollar has been devalued by about 40%. And that’s just against other currencies which themselves have been devalued. Against real money like gold the dollar has lost much more than 40% of it’s value.

    Without knowing the value of the currency it’s priced in that chart of the Dow is completely meaningless.”

    Of course the Dow is meaningful. If we’re gonna talk about the Dow, let’s stick to the Dow. What is this dollar devaluation or nominal gain vs real gain nonsense? Long term inflation is part of life, and averages about 3% per year.

    When I talk about the Dow, I haven’t even include the dividends, which represent a signficant part of the Dow Jones historical gains. And neither have you, which you should, by the way.

    You can’t just keep on measuring the Dow against gold by taking a small timeframe in history where gold has risen dramatically (starting from 2001). (It’s pretty outrageous for you to make these kinds of comparisons and never taking into account the dividends, which are part of the reason that makes the Dow so great a place to invest.) The fact is, historically, the Dow has destroyed gold in terms of returns.

  228. dallascfp

    Catbird,

    I have been following his charts for a long time and when he posts something, he is absolutely sure about it. Type “Silver” on his “Search entire blog” and you will see what I am talking about. He has been posting Silver charts for a month now and has been spot on about it. He also posted about the Dollar crash a couple of days back.

    Although he does not mention in detail like Gary does, but they are good for reference. Trust me, I don’t think I need another person to tell me about Metals other than Gary.

  229. Beanie

    Last post, for the next couple of years.

    I’m gonna enjoy the biggest bull market in equities the world has ever known. Sure, gold and silver can rally too but there should be a point where equities and precious metals diverge when the Dow makes new highs. My take is that gold and silver fall or trade sideways until the latter part of this decade where they may re-emerge coincident with the end of the multidecade secular bull market in equities. Probably around Dow 36,000. (Siegel would be proud to be proven right, even though he is now bond crazy.)

    I’m not sure what it is with stock market bears. They just have to always go ALL-IN on risky stuff. The Atilladons were all-in on futures. The SkiSlopers were all-in on options. You guys are all-in on gold and silver (and now all-in on silver only).

    Being all-in is extremely risky, and you gotta watch your investments like a hawk and know when your original premise is wrong and get out appropriately.

    Though John Paulson loves gold and believes it will double within 2 years, he only has about $1 billion of his firm’s $34 billion invested in gold. (Paulson does have some gold derivatives set up to trigger if gold makes a parabolic run.) Most of the super gurus have most of their money invested in dividend-paying Dow stocks. Evidently, they know history!

    A cautionary tale if you’re 100% into silver:

    My wife has an aunt whose husband put his entire portfolio in….silver, back in the last precious metals bull market. It’s pretty easy to guess where he actually went “ALL-IN”. He thought it was a sure thing.

    http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/SI1980.gif

    It didn’t turn out well for him and he had to tell his wife. The relationship was strained afterwards and within 5-10 years they were divorced. One of the biggest reasons was probably because he never told her that he went all-in on silver when he bought it.

    So before you go all-in on anything, be sure to tell your significant other so at least they have a say in it. They may end up making you think more about your original premise for buying 1 thing like a madman (which is a good thing because even the smartest people in the world can be wrong at times) or they may make you think twice about proper money management.

    Good luck everybody, and may we all make money this decade.

    —beanie

  230. dallascfp

    Catbird,

    Also, everyone has stops, but that doesn’t mean that the price will start to go down after it breaks that level. He posted that chart because he thinks that it will go up from here as he clearly states that once it is “broken”, it will head to $50.

    I use Kimble Charting for reference only and do not read between the lines. I only follow Gary’s recommendations and when he says sell, I will sell.

  231. Wes

    @ Tim Ayles

    Tim, one of your detractors posted this as a quote from Wray :

    “One method that is almost universally scorned is for the government to issue non-interest-bearing debt – currency – to finance deficits. This can either be done directly by the Treasury, or indirectly through the central bank. Because government deficits financed in this manner would directly cause the money supply to expand, many economists claim this would directly cause inflation. We do not intend to explore these positions in more detail. “

    Could you comment on this ?

    I am even more eager to hear your comments on the effects large deficits have on inflation.

    TIA

  232. Shalom Bernanke

    Beano will be back, no matter what he says. He can’t stay away, and when the S&P breaks below 600 he’ll just say he’s in the driver’s seat because it’s all on the path to 5000.

    Now, let’s get ready to rake in some more gains in pm’s this week, or buy the dips hard.

  233. Elaine

    Jayhawk,

    It was a google blog, I remember that much because my google id appeared in the upper right hand corner when I accessed the website. I want to say it started with something like Tri.

    I searched my history but can’t seem to find it.

    Thank you for your response, though.

  234. Elaine

    Thank you, Blammo, that’s it. I actually read Gary’s blog for about four months before subscribing. I found a reference to his blog on Minyanville in March 2010. If only I had taken his advice at that point.

    Best,

    Elaine

  235. Strellsy

    Wow, that Rambus is a mean analyst. Some amazing charts to pore over on that link, thanks Paul.

    I’m reposting this link that dallascfp put up as it is worth looking at again:

    http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/silver30yrfiblevelfeb27.gif

    If silver rallies hard up to $50, that will be the right side of an enormous cup pattern.

    Technically, for the pattern to work, silver should make a nominal new high before selling off. Price would then consolidate creating a handle pattern before another move up. After that, price could go anywhere as there will be no resistance above $50.

  236. Gary

    Nothing special has happened lately. As we all know we saw a bullish 100 at the bottom of the intermediate correction. Typically we will now see gold rise and the Blees rating fall until it reaches 0. How long it stays at 0 is anyone’s guess. Sometimes it can stay pegged under 10 for several months at a time.

    The Blees rating is really only good for timing bottoms.

  237. Aaron

    Silverman,
    Dont even bother with the CFTC, they are a joke!
    They are still looking into silver manipulation charges from 2008!
    They totally ignored Mcguire’s story during the hearings, and you think they are going to take your side over the banks?
    Just concentrate on making money on silver, rectifying the wrongs of this game is a dream at this point.

  238. mylifemytrade

    @DG Putting on a 75% position allows using the rest of 25% to manage the position without ever averaging the losing position OR closing position for a loss and re-short higher πŸ™‚

    There is a subtle difference.. but there IS a difference and its quite critical.

  239. Gary

    Could anyone else understand that?

    If the trade is underwater and going further underwater what is there to manage other than exiting the trade for a loss or holding through a further draw down in the hope that the trade will eventually go your way, even though it’s clearly not doing what you expected?

    This is why I never short a bull market, especially when the secular, intermediate and short term direction are all against you.

    You probably have better odds just playing blackjack at the local casino.

  240. Chrys

    Gary – from your weekend report I couldn’t tell if you are still looking for daily cycle low in gold this week. Looking to add to miners.

  241. DG

    I think what he was saying is that if you want to short, say, $100k between $1390 and $1410 (that is you know you are wrong at $1410), you can do it on the way to $1410 in stages and you are sort of adding to a loser, but more just finishing your plan. I don;t necessarily agree with it, but I think that’s what he means. I have occasionally (but very rarely) done this. I think it’s o.k. At this point hiss problem is that he is arguing with the market, gold is in a bull, the dollar is breaking to new lows, and the metals are acting great. Hopefully his being public here will not cause his pride to kick in resulting in a huge hit.

    By the way, Gary, that’s a hell of a call suggesting the dollar break would be today. Are you sure you don’t have a crystal ball?

  242. DG

    People have sometimes asked what good a system is that identifies a bottom for a mere 1% move. One of the advantages is that you are never in the hole in a big position. The SPX buy signal the day of the closing low last week allowed me to buy a boatload of SPY’s all of which I still have. I expect a new Dow high and have what Gary calls “strong hands” so I can just wait for it now. I will probably sell 1/2 then. My only fear is I am on the same side as Beanie right now.

  243. ddn3f

    Nike,

    I was thinking the same as you earlier about gold/silver not moving. Well just when we least expect it, silver goes up just like Gary says.

  244. Rebecca

    Gary,

    Are you sure it is just luck? You have to have a crystal ball somewhere. I continue to be amazed by how in syn your PM and $USD cycle analysis is with the market. You are simply the best.

  245. Shalom Bernanke

    DG,

    It’s not that a system with a potential gain of 1% is not viable, but if the system only triggers an entry signal 8-10x/year it seems most hedge funds would not be interested.

    Even if it wins 7 out of ten times, losing 3, the net gain doesn’t seem like something they’d pursue, IMO.

  246. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m wondering when the daily cycle will pull back so we can add. Feels like it should be any day now, but we just keep working higher.

    Gary’s great about keeping us in winners. Much appreciated!

  247. pimaCanyon

    MLMT,

    Apparently you are still in the short trade.

    What has to happen in gold and silver to make you decide those markets are not going to move in your direction and thus close your short positions?

  248. Patung

    quite a lot of negative divergence on agq on most indicators, not macd and williams, but most others, on RSI a blind man could see it

  249. vuvvy

    MLMT, short 75% of your account GC? Doesn’t seem like you have much room to do any positioning as you shorted below 1400.I hope you’re being honest with us:)

  250. DG

    SB, It wins 8 of 10, and its 25 year backtested return using naked option purchases is a 27% annual rate with a maximum drawdown of 9 % from any peak. The dearth of signals is a problem, but the returns (especially non-market correlated) are mind-blowing with such a tiny drawdown. They are already more than interested. I am just aggravated how long this is taking, but partly that’s the problem joining with a firm with five partners and too much else to do.

  251. Gary

    P,
    I suspect more money has been lost trying to trade divergences than trying to short bull markets.

    Almost every rally will start out with a divergence. If it goes far enough the divergence will disappear.

  252. Razvan

    MLMT we dont trust you enough to give you the cash for the subscription. You will just take the money and pile on more short positions in hopes of the market turning in your favor.
    You need to experience the loss before we decide to invest in your education.

  253. vuvvy

    MLMT, if you’re “theoretically” short GC from 1396 with 75% of your account then with margins at about 9k you are then short 8 contracts with a 100k account, with current losses right now at over 15k and you will be at zero for your 75% invested at well shy of 1500 with margin calls stopping you out well before that.I find it highly unlikely you have ANY $ to invest at all with management like that.

  254. pimaCanyon

    Razvan,

    Yeah, like giving money for “dinner” to an alcoholic. What do you think he will spend his dinner money on?

    The way around MLMT spending the sub money on something else is that we don’t send MLMT the money. Instead, we buy the subscription in MLMT’s name and then he gets to use it.

  255. Shalom Bernanke

    DG,

    Unless I’m missing something, your system (with expected wins and losses at 1%) would need roughly 45 signals a year to hit the 27% annual return (that’d be 36 wins and 9 losses, all 1% each, for net of +27%). That’s almost 4 each month (or 1 each week), but since you’ve been here sharing your data there have only been roughly 5-8 signals total.

    Maybe I missed some trades you’ve called out, but still I think the system has triggered nowhere near the number of trades needed (at 1% gains) to get to 27%

  256. Poly

    Alex and/or Jawhawk,

    What’s up with GPL? I’m not complaining, but the gains are ridiculous! GPL is an exploration or micro stock anymore.

  257. DG

    You are forgetting that this is done by buying calls. If the SPX rallies 1% in a day or two, the options soar. You don’t need 27 1% SPX gains to make 27% when buying calls at the right time, that’s for sure! If you had bought calls the Thursday I posted the buy, what percent would you be up now, 2 days later? With not 5 seconds of drawdown, I might add.

  258. DG

    Alex: Thanks for pounding the table with me on GPL. I have enough now that if it really gets to double-digits it’ll be a nice win (I’ll even take 6 or 7, generous fellow that I am!)

  259. DG

    SB: From previous thread—
    You are forgetting that this is done by buying calls. If the SPX rallies 1% in a day or two, the options soar. You don’t need 27 1% SPX gains to make 27% when buying calls at the right time, that’s for sure! If you had bought calls the Thursday I posted the buy, what percent would you be up now, 2 days later? With not 5 seconds of drawdown, I might add. Make sense?

  260. DG

    I don;t trade them (don’t have the expertise or the nervous system) but it’s the hedge fund’s specialty. I just by SPY’s and of course make a lot less (but am able to sleep at night.)

  261. Patung

    I know, it’s a low probability thing in a big bull market; and they haven’t turned down yet.

    btw, the upper channel line that I’ve drawn on the daily chart of agq which starts at sept 2009, it’s butting up right against it now, second time in a few days, suggests it really wants to break thru given that in a few years it’s only hit it 5 or 6 times total.

  262. mylifemytrade

    @vuvvy In trying to infer my money management style, you just revealed a lot about yours..

    I never said 75% OF THE ACCOUNT. I said 75% POSITION. But by taking the latter to meant he former, you just revealed that for you 75% of position would mean 75% of the account. In that case, YOU should worry about your management style and stop worrying about mine.

  263. mylifemytrade

    @Razvan,

    You can create a new email id… buy a subscription in name of that email id.. and provide me the email id.. C’mon you would know that if you ever helped a hungry dude out on the road. You dont give them money, you give them food.

  264. ddn3f

    Um a new Toby Connor “Golden Fireworks Are About to Begin” article was posted on Safehaven. How come it is not on this site yet?

  265. Poly

    Yes, I did mean to say “not” a explorer or micro, which could go some of the way in explaining double digit daily gains.

  266. ddn3f

    This is what was said in that Toby Connor article

    “The time to get on board is before gold breaks out of the consolidation. Once it does the parabolic move should be underway and your chances of a significant pullback to enter the market will decrease significantly.”

    When gold breaks out, Gary is not sure if we can even get a backtest for a chance to get back in.

  267. vuvvy

    MLMT, LOL!!!My system is very conservative and doesn’t short bull markets and always has reasonable stops,as my posts will confirm. Anyways, I will not be arguing with you and wish you the best with your strategy.

  268. mylifemytrade

    @Shame on Benny dude:

    “What is the justification for taking 3/4 of a position, MLMT?”

    Simple.. Any less would mean I don’t shovel money into your account fast enough… Any more would mean I don’t get to fool myself into believing that I could manage this trade.

  269. pimaCanyon

    MLMT,

    You’ve answered a couple of questions re position sizing, but haven’t answered my question about when to close your position.

    What will have to happen in the PM market to cause you to close your position at a loss? What is your stop loss (if you have one) on the gold and silver short?

  270. wmp

    Nike:

    Skeletons Emerge From Hecla’s Closet
    By Christopher Barker | More Articles
    February 28, 2011 | Comments (0)

    HLHecla Mining
    CAPS Rating 4/5 Stars . $10.56 $-0.23 (-2.13%)

    + Watch HL
    on My Watchlist
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    When you’re 120 years old, I suppose you’re bound to have a few skeletons in your closet.

    Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL) has been pulling silver from the earth since 1891. Although mining will certainly never become a low-impact endeavor, thankfully the industry’s best environmental practices have come a long way over the years. Unfortunately for Hecla and its shareholders, though, some of those forgotten methods have left a rather unforgettable legacy.

    Hecla delayed its fourth-quarter earnings release in order to report on the progress of ongoing efforts to settle litigation brought by the Coeur d’Alene Indian Tribe and the federal government during the 1990s. The issue stems from the practices of multiple mining companies in Idaho’s Coeur d’Alene River Basin prior to 1968, when some 100 million tons of waste rock carrying harmful heavy metals was reportedly introduced into the region’s river system. Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE), for its part, settled its own liability in this case way back in 2001. With the federal government’s remediation efforts expected to carry a final price tag above $2.2 billion, Hecla seeks to settle its share of the liability for $262 million.

    The resulting accrual of $193.2 million for Hecla — beyond its previously estimated liability — polluted Hecla’s quarterly result, converting a laudable operating performance into a deeply disappointing $13.1 million net loss! Now, rather than hailing the miner’s impressive cash cost of negative $0.14 per ounce of silver produced — still trailing only Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM) among the industry’s lowest-cost producers — shareholders are instead left to consider the effect of a $262 million outlay upon this company’s ability to fund growth in the near to medium term.

    Although seemingly much smaller in scale by comparison, a close inspection of the company’s filings will reveal that Hecla may face additional environmental liabilities. For example, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, the railroad acquired by Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) (NYSE: BRK-A), is seeking compensation for clean-up costs for a historical mine site on the grounds of a BNSF rail yard. Although the company claims no liability, the Environmental Protection Agency is apparently scrutinizing two additional Superfund sites in South Dakota and Colorado, where a company that Hecla acquired in 1991 had previously operated.

    While it’s true that Hecla’s cash balance of $283.6 million (with zero debt) provides an important cushion from the impact of this and potential future liabilities, this sizable hit does present a setback to Hecla’s perceived ability to capitalize on strategic growth opportunities that may present themselves. With silver reaching new heights, and prime acquisition targets such as Endeavour Silver (AMEX: EXK) and Alexco Resource (AMEX: AXU) strutting their silver stuff, Hecla essentially now enters this crucial period of the precious metals bull market with one hand tied behind its back. I remain a Hecla shareholder, though my enthusiasm has been materially diminished

  271. pimaCanyon

    Maybe it’s time for PM’s to head down to daily cycle low. If gold and silver respect the channels they have been in since the late January low, then gold could go as low as 1387, silver as low as 32.35.

    (‘course there’s nothing that says they have to stay in the channel, but –IF– it’s a daily cycle low, and not a continuation of the IT or yearly cycle low, then the pullback should be relatively mild.)

    If this plays out, MLMT may escape unscathed–may actually make a little money.

  272. Gary

    The big move will probably come when the dollar final gives up and plunges down into the daily cycle low. If you aren’t in you will miss it as it could very well come pre-market.

  273. Slumdog

    The monthly reversal pattern in gold is now a setup. The next move above the Dec high will need to be watched. A break straight up and quickly will probably mean 1550 is the next goal, with 2050 the high based on a near-max stretch of the violation of this reversal.

    But this is down reversal, and there’s a long way to travel down in this reversal pattern even before a direction to this move is made clear.

    Yes, there are many ways to see the markets direction. This is just one.

    My only observation is that this setup occurs once very 10-20 years. So, to me this is very well worth measuring and watching.
    Hence, I’m ready to frame it with calls and puts when I think it’s ready to move out of this congestion area it’s been in for the past 4 months.

  274. pimaCanyon

    what do you think, are they serious?

    “A sustained rise in medium-term inflation expectations would represent a threat to our price stability mandate and would not be tolerated,” William Dudley said in a speech at New York University’s Stern School of Business.

    Dudley is head of the NY Fed.

  275. wmp

    Gary,

    HL isn’t on your list. It’s dropping faster today, I assume due to the recent reclamation liability news..an 8% drawdown today. If you owned it would you buy or sell?

    Thanks

  276. DG

    Pima: My opinion is that no one at the Fed (or in politics) ever says anything for the sake of communicating. They always have a goal in the communication. If it so happens that speaking the truth moves them toward their goal, great. They are not opposed to speaking the truth, but they would never say something that’s true that was counterproductive to their desired outcome. Why would they? Their goal is to keep inflation *expectations* down, so they will say whatever it takes to move towards that goal, trying not to say things that are obviously false (because damaging credibility moves them away from their goal).

  277. DG

    WMP: This is why Gary doesn’t fool with individual miners (except SLW). No one can know what their liability will ultimately be so it’s a crap-shoot whereas AGQ is a sure thing if silver rallies.

  278. Bede

    Gary said, “It’s called a buying opportunity. You got one last Thursday too.”

    Which is the better buying opportunity — GPL which is still on a tear, or one of the other stocks which are pulling back?

  279. David

    IMO, HL is a perfect example of the crookedness of the mining industry.

    HL has been abusing its shareholders for years. Anyone who owns it, as I once did, has suffered through days like today many times. They exist to enrich their management and dilute their shareholders.

    Sell, and never touch it again.

  280. DG

    oa92: Once I get well in the black I usually set my stop to break-even, as I have in this case. We ought to make new highs before revisiting Thursdays lows. If we don;’t something is probably wrong. Tiny profits do not help your account (just your ego as in “Hey! I finally won on a trade!) I’d rather hang in there for a decent profit if possible.

  281. Gary

    Nike,
    If you want beta just stick with AGQ. More than likely all you will accomplish by trying to find the next GPL is to get stuck with the next SFMI.

  282. Romeo Bravo

    The ensuing end of this C wave and D wave should really help shake things out for which junior miners are good and which are just a load of bull* during the following A wave and B, then next C wave.

    As Gary had mentioned a while ago, like tech companies in the 1990s, some of these things are going to go up many hundreds if not thousands of percent over the next 5 to 10 years.

    A few days pop doesn’t really show me anything. A few months of price action, which weather ups and downs should show which ones are really capable of making a huge run. We have many more huge up legs (and down legs) in this bull.

  283. Bede

    Hey Gary,

    I’m stuck with the current GPL, so I don’t have to worry about the next one. πŸ˜‰

    Thanks to Alex and the others who turned me on to it.

  284. DG

    C’mon old man…every kid wants a toy. My serious money is in just SIL. AGQ, and SLW, but Alex has seduced me to the Dark Side with some GPL.

  285. blammo

    Personally, my SLW calls are beating my gains in GPL.

    Looking at the volume in GPL though, it sure looks like people want in. I’ll add on the next dip.

    Speaking of which, I don’t recall anyone asking if they should buy it last Thursday when it was on sale…

  286. David

    I think there will be hot junior stocks like GPL is at the moment, but don’t think this makes them “good”.

    There are plenty of former junior momentum stocks like GSS or even HMY back in the day… Nevsun, was another 1000% gainer. They flame out and the crowd moves on to the next one.

    If you want to play the juniors, you can’t expect to marry them. Ride them, then be prepared to step off and move on. This is also why you should play the juniors with a relatively small portion of your portfolio, if at all.

  287. Ryan

    Gary said it was a buying opportunity when gold/silver was giving back all it’s gains from this morning and right again he is. Gary must be windexing that crystal ball of his twice a day πŸ™‚

  288. Gary

    David,
    Exactly. The only way to make the really big money is to hold one through the entire bull but that means it could easily turn out to be a GSS. But if you take profits early then you have no chance of scoring the 10,000% gainer.

    It’s easy to say one will catch the big one but next to impossible to do in real time when it goes through a lengthy consolidation stage.

    Just as an example of what’s in store for you look at the historical chart of Dell and ask yourself if you really could have held on to that thing in real time.

    If your honest with yourself you will admit there’s no way you could have held it…unless it was a very small position that you could just ignore.

    FWIW I have several of these that I bought about a year ago in my Roth account. I haven’t looked at them in months and probably won’t until the bull is ready to top.

  289. Power Corrupts

    Rachel Benepe, First Eagle Funds, on PM mining company managements: “I scale them on a weighted curve from “sleazy” to “crook” and we want to not own the crooks.”

  290. DG

    David/Gary: I assume that it is likely that the ones that are moving now (like GPL) will keep going until this C wave ends. The changing of the guard ought to be after the next D wave is over. Of course anything can happen, but does this seem right? I’d be happy with a3-4 bagger as opposed to thousands of percent and maybe this C wave will provide that.

  291. Poly

    GPL 17% and more than 2x average volume. Seriously, I know these can move, but when I see moves like this, there is more to the story……

  292. Gary

    DG,
    Maybe but probably not. Once it gets stretched enough the momentum crowd will hit the exit and go looking for the next high flyer. Often that will mean a huge one day dump. If you don’t recognize it in time you end up giving back a big chunk of gains or all of them very quickly.

  293. David

    DG,

    Yes, I would expect the flavor-of -the-month to change during the next cycle. Maybe several times.

    But by definition, these things can’t return 10% a day for five years, or they’d be trillion-dollar companies. At some point they can’t support their market cap.

    FWIW, if you want to play the junior hot-potato game, I suspect the hot ones at the beginning of the next C-wave will be gold juniors, not silver. Gold outperforms in the early stages, and silver outperforms in the final blowoff, just as we’re seeing now.

  294. David

    Not to get all Gary-ish here, but going all-in on a junior stock, or even a handful of stocks, is another way to blow out your portfolio.

    For those who are just getting into the juniors, I suggest you Google this:

    “Bre-X”

  295. wingman

    David,

    For the most part agree. But if one does his homework and understands drill results, evaluates share structure, and knows the management is solid then it can be a big mistake to jump off the juniors too soon. Case in point, GORO. I was buying at $2.08two years ago and now it’s $27 and paying a dividend. First Majestic is another great example, and there are others out there as well. But again, I agree that many of them it’s just a thrill ride to a quick double or triple and then moving on.

    Also, I did post on Thursday that I was buying…specifically, April AGQ calls, April SLV calls, and April SLW calls. My AGQ calls have now nearly doubled (bought 180’s at $11 and some way out of the money 230’s at $3, believing the big picture and Gary’s timeframe for the C-wave advance). The one thing I didn’t buy was more GPL, but I’ve got 4000 shares already (purchased at $1.21).

  296. David

    wingman,

    You’re obviously experienced with these things. Riding winners is the right thing to do. And as I said, I own them all too, with the exception of GORO.

    I just made the comment because when people see GPL up 15.88% today, a newer PM investor might get to thinking about going all-in.

  297. wingman

    Couldn’t agree with you more David. I have definitely made the mistake of riding winning juniors that eventually became losers (both in the tech bull of the 90’s and in the uranium craze a few years back). In the end it all depends on the company. If it’s a good one with good management, good properties, and good financial structure (the three keys in junior mining), then it’s good to hold. But those are few and far between, and hard to find ahead of the pack.
    Best of luck, and thanks for your post!

  298. Bede

    “This blatant attempt to dump PMs into the pit close and have silver and gold end trading on the books near the lows of the day merely confirms that “someone” is truly desperate to avoid an avalanche of margin calls. Of course, this uber-cheap trick works at best for a day or two.”

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/6grl67y
    [Open in new window]

  299. Gary

    Folks let me ease your minds. Unlike Bernanke the traders at JPM or GS are not idiots. They know how to take a loss if positions are going against them. If they need to get out of silver shorts they will just cover and be done with it.

    Do you really think that some of the smartest people on the planet can’t see the writing on the wall?

    There is nothing manipulated about anything we’ve seen today or for the last month. Gold is just doing what bull markets do. It’s getting late in the daily cycle and other people besides you are getting nervous about getting caught in a daily cycle correction. So you can understand when they sell into strength, especially if they are leveraged.

    Personally I’m not at all confident the daily cycle correction will amount to much but then I’m not heavily leveraged so I don’t worry about such things.

    Can we please be done with this manipulation BS now!

  300. Visitor

    RE: Miner allocation – The ETFs don’t guarantee outstanding returns. GDXJ has been a dud for me, bought a couple of times starting Oct. 10 – basically flat! I believe you have to have a basket including individual names as luck and lucky timing play a big part. I was fortunate to get PZG at $1.25 SLW at $8 and NXG at $1.15 – but also have GSS which is now even for me after I watched it gain 100% – Dan Norcini has a good article about bear raids and the small cap miners.

  301. Poly

    I 2nd that.
    PLEASE, let’s not turn this site into one of those ignoramus following sites where people come and regurgitate re-posted nonsense, as if they heard it themselves.

    Obviously JPM have probably (some of) the most talented traders out there, their interest is in making money. If Silver is going to $40 or $50, I GUARANTEE you they will be profited from it, not losing.

  302. jeff

    i still cant believe there was no washout at 1300. i think they did that on purpose. just to make me to scared to buy it there, and i was.
    although next time i bet they do a washout twice. they are sneeky like that

  303. DG

    MLMT: What are you doing? Do you have a stop? What about your silver puts—will you just hold them till expiration? Just curious.

  304. Brian

    DG, PZG made a new silver discovery at the end of last year and promptly ran up 100%. It has been consolidating at its highs for a few months. I am still holding it.

  305. Jayhawk

    My IRA-pretty simple strategy. AGQ, SLW and SLW calls. Up 65% so far this year. Unreal. My regular brokerage is doing well, but that IRA is amazing.

  306. Brian

    MLMT, I freed up some cash over the weekend and added it to SLW shares today. Not much though. I have been fully invested since near the Int bottom. SLW calls today hit the 350% mark. Much better than buying puts. It is probably not too late for you to get on the right side of the trade.

  307. Poly

    Gary,

    During the dive into the last 3 yr dollar cycle bottom in 2008, the dollar went into free fall during the last 15 trading days, right when the last cycle bottom was taken out.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&st=2007-09-11&en=2008-04-01&id=p05692473768&a=226470573

    Do you expect something similar to occur right now since we broke 76.88? Or would you expect to see a collapse really begin after 75.63 is taken out?

    ALSO, within your cycle work are there any expectations regarding this 3yr cycle bottom compared to the last in 2008? If the last 3yr cycle hit bottom at 70.70, is this 3yr cycle expected to eclipse that? Stay above that? Or doesn’t matter?

    Thanks.

  308. Gary

    Poly,
    The big losses come during the last two or three weeks as a panic ensues.
    I’ve been saying for a while that the left translated nature of this three year cycle suggests at least marginal new lows.

  309. Brian

    First Majestic Silver Corp.: 2010 Audited Financial Results Show Record Earnings & Cash Flows; A Breakout Year for First Majestic 02/28 06:11 PM

    VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwire – Feb. 28, 2011) – FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP. (AG:$15.3000,$0.4700,3.17%) (the “Company” or “First Majestic”) is pleased to announce the audited consolidated financial results for the Company for the year ending and fourth quarter ending December 31, 2010. The full version of the financial statements and the management discussion and analysis can be viewed on the Company’s web site at http://www.firstmajestic.com, on SEDAR at http://www.sedar.com and EDGAR at http://www.sec.gov.

    2010 Highlights

    — Cash Flow per share (non-GAAP) of $0.62 per share representing a 676%
    increase from 2009

    — Earnings per share (basic) amounted to $0.39 representing a 410% over
    2009

    — Total Cash Cost were US$7.94 per ounce, down 6% compared to 2009

    — Gross Revenue of $132.2 million showing an 85% increase from 2009

    — Net Revenue of $120.8 million showing a 103% increase from 2009

    — Mine Operating Earnings of $61.2 million showing an increase of 231%
    from 2009

    — Net Income after Taxes amounted to $36.1 million, a 472% increase from
    2009

    — Silver only production increases by 72% to 6.53 million ounces compared
    to 3.8 million ounces silver in 2009

    — 2011 guidance of 7.5 million ounces of silver or 8.0 million ounces of
    silver equivalent production

    — Fully un-hedged to silver prices

  310. Gary

    I do expect the HUI to outperform gold during this final leg up so no surprise there.

    The HUI just had to break out of the bull flag consolidation.

  311. Gary

    AGQ should substantially outperform the HUI (GDX).

    I have no desire to own the major gold miners. I just look at them as a sign the rally is healthy. If they are still in an uptrend then I don’t worry.

  312. Slumdog

    As the USD descends, the link between the ReminB and the USD is finally today showing a breach.

    China has held dearly to suck every last drop of blood from the USD by tying itself around the dollar’s neck, but today they finally recognized they have lost meaningful percentages as they’ve held on.

    China is in essence saying, “We surrender workforce in our attempt to hold onto store of value.”

    I will guess that China will be buying more PM’s and commodities as they try to unload their dollar ties.

    My view? Screw ’em.

    Kitco reports: RMB/USD 6.5669
    This is one of the lowest exhange rates I’ve seen posted.

  313. Poly

    The Micro and Junior gold’s are neglected in favor of Silver. Most of the space is yet to come anywhere near the Dec high’s.
    I suspect at some point, probably when Gold really takes off into all time new highs, that this imbalance will be somewhat corrected.

    I’m not moving away from the Silver concentrate, but some of these gold stocks are going to really fly.

  314. Brian

    Jay, I have shares in most of the silver miners. Some may liken it to a mutual fund, but I prefer position sizes that I won’t get blown out from a bit of bad news. At intermediate bottoms, I buy small doses of calls in the silvers. Now holding calls on cde, exk, hl, mvg, slw, and svm. MVG calls are the weakest, but the stock just started moving today. I have some gold juniors like BAA, EGI, GORO, MDW, THM etc. Like you, I spend a lot of time with the charts.

  315. Jayhawk

    Silver leading gold, SLW leading the miners. SLW broke up huge out of it’s flag. All the silver miners & HUI seem to have the same pattern with the silvers leading, SLW leading the whole pack.

  316. Brian

    TLR is a good example. It was trading at 1.30 and they came out and said they were going to put 5m shares on the market at .95. Of course the stock promptly visited that level today.

  317. dallascfp

    Hi Gary,

    When the dollar breaks below the November intermediate cycle low, do you recommend to take a large margin position then? More than 30%?

    Thanks

  318. Gary

    I’ve already got about all the leverage I want at this time. Plus the later in the cycle it gets the closer to the top you are.

    I can see where this is going already for a lot of people. Leverage piled on top of leverage, Options on AGQ, piling into junior miners, front month options, etc.

    Everyone thinks they’ve found a sure thing. Let me assure you there is no such thing.

    I’ll say this again. Massive leverage always eventually ends up in a busted account.

    If you listen to me on this then you will do just fine during the rest of the C-wave. You’ll add to what you make, maybe even double it during the A-wave. And by the time this secular bull is over you should be financially free even if you only start with a modest account.

    If you get greedy and try to push the envelope you will blow a once in a lifetime opportunity.

  319. TheBookGuy

    Gary,

    I just sold some lagging miners and am planning to buy AGQ, that would be my only leverage as I have much more in SLW, a small portion of AXAS and a small portion in GPL. I keep my stops at 13% of all positions with each new high.

    Do you feel that this is a bad plan or do you feel my stops are too tight and that I should leave the cash I just raised out of it now? I could see using stops only on the AXAS and the GPL.

    Thank you for your input, if you chose to comment. I do realize you can’t give individual advice all the time and I respect your time.

  320. Razvan

    warren-buffett-is-bullish-on-housing
    great article about the upcoming real estate bull and how Warren Buffet is positioning ahead of it.

    Is there a sentiment rating for the housing investors? Taking into account all the negativity out there, I bet the reading has to be over 100% bears.

    IMO real estate is currently one of the most undervalued assets and I encourage you to consider this as a possible investment.

  321. Gary

    GPL will probably hit a 13% stop in the blink of an eye.

    For general PM positions HUI 518 is the stop. Once we get another daily cycle low we will be able to move the stop up.

  322. Gary

    Nah still too much inventory sitting out there. Besides bubbles never reflate. Mostly they just bounce along the bottom for years and years.

    You might be able to buy cheaply and maybe even low enough to rent at a profit, but price appreciation isn’t coming back anytime soon.

  323. David

    Razvan,

    The history of bubbles shows that in the aftermath of a major bubble the asset usually goes through a 20-year consolidation period. That’s been the case with gold after 1980, Japan after 1990, and the NASDAQ after 2000.

    I don’t expect it to be any different this time. There is just way too much capacity in housing encumbered by too much debt.

    You will make much more money in gold and silver.

  324. DG

    Bamster: “There was a soft superforce 60 sell given today for FXI.” What the heck is that? I need FXI to rally because I never place a trade like that without a tight stop.

    Raz: I think that is Comex, and that’s the link I found too. Thank you.

  325. Steven

    Gary,

    I hear and agree with you on the real estate situation. I sold all of my properties, including my own residence, in 2008. However, some situations defy gravity. I live in Manhattan and prices here for many condos and coops are at the same price as the peak and some even higher! My guess is that our marke is probably tied to the stock market as the hedge fund group are the maginal buyers here so if the stock market drops then perhaps the market here will drop as well. Thoughts on this type of situation?

    Also, when you say housing will not reflate do you mean in nominal terms or that prices may increaseby perhaps even less than inflation?

    Thanks!

  326. Gary

    While some areas may stabilize or even rally briefly I don’t expect the national average to go up for quite some time.

    We still owe a depression at some point. It’s unavoidable when the world creates a credit bubble.

    I doubt any market is safe from that when it comes.

  327. Steven

    So would you avoid buying even in a market such as Manhattan?

    And when do you think this depression will actually happen?

    It seems like unless the printing press is taken away from the Fed it will be of the hyperinflationay.

  328. vuvvy

    DG, sorry about the lag time, my kids wanted my attention. Imagine that:)Yes the pit session closed up .60, at 1409.90

  329. Gary

    At some point the currency and bond market will start to unravel. That’s the point where a decision will be made as to whether to hyperinflate or suffer a deflationary depression.

  330. Razvan

    i dont mean as a short term investment because i agree it could take 10 to 20 years to see it take off but now is the best time to get a great deal. For someone like me who has 30-40 years till retirement i think real estate has to be part of one’s assets.

    Of course there is much more opportunity to make big money in gold and silver (thats why I am here) but there are many investors who do not have such a high risk tolerance to be invested in commodities which are volatile.

  331. vuvvy

    We’ve been buying real estate at 50-60% of what it sold for in 1997 at the GSE auctions and renting them out,focusing on homes built 1990’s and newer. It’s not a bad way to go as long as you have a good property manager and a 5-10 year time horizon, and the means to not get leveraged.

  332. LowTax

    Wes, TZ,

    What should not be missed is that the high level of the monetary base cannot be reversed easily or accurately enough to prevent rampant inflation. It is an incredibly crude tool and the Fed knows this. We WILL have inflation at some point. They will err to the high side as well. I doubt there will be hyperinflation but there doesn’t need to be for the gold bull to come to full fruition.

  333. TZ(5288)

    WES,

    I know much more about the money supply than you suspect.

    I’ll bump this back to you and say that you don’t know what you are saying because you think M3 is a better indication of the inflation tsunami and financial collapse heading our way. It isn’t.

    Furthermore, you may not be aware that there are MULTIPLE ways people define “money supply” -not just one. And certainly not just M3 as you want to pretend.

    Do you know why people have different definitions of “money supply”? It’s because each component has different restrictions, time value, interest, and other parameters.

    Those different measures are for a REASON which you seem to be missing. And, NO, M3 is not the most critical.

    There is a reason the monetary base (which I link to) (which in and of itself can be called a ‘money supply’) is called “HIGH POWER” money.

    I’ll let you tell us why it is called that and then I will continue as to why it is critical to be looking at.

  334. Wes

    LowTax,

    Inflation need not occur for gold to continue increasing in price. The fear of inflation should be more than sufficient.

  335. Wes

    TZ,

    If you don’t know what you’re talking about, don’t expect me to rescue you.

    Why don’t you just study up on our monetary system so you’ll be better informed next time ?

  336. TZ(5288)

    WES,

    Back at you. I know damn well what i’m talking about and the board will know it soon.

    You jumped on me and pointed to M3 instead. So tell us, why M3 is such a great indicator of the inflation tsunami and why it is more important than the monetary base.

    Tell us why the chart of M3 looking flat or down is the important chart. Tell us why it isn’t the Monetary “high power” base.

    Make it CLEAR so we all understand your point and you can’t backtrack, cause when I have my say and respond the board will be confident you are wrong.

    I’m tired of this.

  337. james r

    It is my understanding that what we have occurring is speculation on commodities that is driving inflation.

    That sometime in the future our economy will have “real” inflation.

    Real inflation to me means that the banks will release the hounds through lending (credit should relax in the coming years) and countries like China and Japan will dump our cheap dollars here for goods and services.

    So America will experience two waves of high real inflation.

    Any thoughts?

  338. Budi

    Gary, is it possible that the situation in middle east affect precious metals? I mean gold bottommed when unrest started in Egypt, now it’s Khadavi’s turn in Libya. thanks

  339. T.J. Rand

    Silver has motored to 34.26 as of 6:00 EST…pretty impressive. I added a small amount (AGQ, SLW) at the close last night – had to make myself do it. The emotional piece Gary has talked about was front and center- Silver looked too high and had moved too far/fast to add more, I was fearful of a drawdown, etc. So closed my eyes and pressed enter.

    Will add a last small bit at the daily cycle low.

  340. Gary

    NJ,
    Old news. There are a few popping up in the US also. One or two in a few Las Vegas casinos if I remember correctly.

    We will see this continue until we reach the mania phase.

  341. jeff

    Gary
    I have a buddy jumping on board . He is going scotttrade this morning
    But… I do have prepared to buy into strength
    Is that the right thing to do at this point?

    He is buying agq

  342. Brian

    AG is likely to be the same as EXK with the caveat that it has a high stick on the left side of the cup. Regardless of that the pattern measurement is nice.

  343. ddn3f

    With Jeff’s friend jumping in this morning, I am getting the feeling that the chasing has started. That just means we have to be prepared for a quick drawdown and a daily cycle low.

    Jeff,

    you should get your friend to sign up and collect $50. Plus it’ll be worth it for Gary’s exit signals when time comes.

  344. bluebox

    Budi said…
    …is it possible that the situation in middle east affect precious metals?

    In a word, yes.

    The dollar sank a bit yesterday and gold/silver went nowhere. Today, we get this:
    “Saudi Arabia sends tanks to Bahrain”
    http://www.presstv.ir/detail/167565.html

    Dollar flat, gold reaching for and silver breaking new highs.

  345. vuvvy

    Shalom,why in the heck are you posting on a blog when you’re supposed to give your semi-annual speech on monetary policy shortly:)

  346. DG

    Yes, news affects markets. If the news is in the direction of the major trend, it accelerates the move; if the news is against the major trend (good news in a bear market), its effect last for an hour to a day. So the major question is “are we going up or down?” which by far trumps the news. Granville used to say “Good news is bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market.” IMO News is more of a distraction than anything else and won’t help you make money, just like conspiracy theories about silver.

  347. Poly

    “People are getting far too cocky”

    Good. If we’re only 6-8 weeks away from the blow-off top of this monster C-Wave, we need people to get cocky. We need masses of speculators flooding the sector πŸ™‚

  348. sophia

    just want to say ” thank you Gary!”…nice cristal ball….
    BTW, on your way to your small cliff in Switzerland, come and visit us in Chamonix…. no burritos but nice cheese raclettes….

  349. LowTax

    Wes, yes, I agree completely – we don’t need inflation for the gold bull to continue. But we WILL have inflation, I guarantee it.

  350. NPC

    Hi Gary

    I’m getting a bit concerned with AGQ Arian Silver. Despite the fact that silver is roaring, it remains muted. Is this a warning sign? Silver Wheaton seems to be doing very well in contrast. It smells fishy.

    Cheers

  351. Gary

    NPC,
    I don’t invest in individual miners and I’ve repeatedly advised everyone else to do the same. If you want to buy these penny stock juniors then you are going to be hit with under achievers and lightening from out of the blue from time to time.

  352. vuvvy

    Gold pit down/USERX up voodoo works again. A logical spot to take profit on the system would have been a couple of minutes ago after the anemic intraday push to new highs,yielding almost the average of 15 gold points.

  353. DG

    If the Dow closes up today (unless it skyrockets) I will get a sell signal. At that point i will sell all the SPY I bought last week. The sells are not as good as the buys, but I have no strong desire to be long so out they go. I may sell anyway as if we don;t close up after posting new highs they may just be exhausted and it’s been a nice few days long run.

  354. Paul

    oa92000,
    I just bought more AGQ. Figured even if we do get a dip it should be a lot higher at the end of the c wave.

  355. Movax2

    Would you immediately hit sell if Bernank announces QE2 will/could end early? (Just pretend it is possible..)

    Open to anyone to answer.

  356. DG

    Gary: Really more curiosity than anything else, but do you rebalance your account? That is, you were 130% long and must be a fair amount less by now as we have gone up. Do you keep it at about 130% regularly or just rebalance at the daily cycle lows, or not at all?

  357. pimaCanyon

    SB,

    Sometimes your posts make me laugh out loud (even if they are a bit harsh). And that smile on your face just adds to the hilarity.

  358. Shalom Bernanke

    Movax,

    No, I would not sell. The Fed wants to monetize and has many ways to do it besides stated QE. They are fully aware the dollar suffers but do not care on iota, it’s simply part of the scam.

    Of course they cannot admit this publicly, but one should not be surprised that a criminal will lie and intentionally mislead the victims of it’s crimes. They have been killing the dollar ever since they were charted (even in good times-just that nobody notices as much), so why should we think they won’t continue?

  359. Razvan

    you keep rebalancing your account because you are going to get cought one time at the top and loose a big chunk of your profits.

  360. Shalom Bernanke

    Movax,

    In fact, I’d use the selloff as an opportunity to add, if it occurred. Because of people’s perceptions it seems likely that metals and commods in general would get hit if they stopped QE, but the question is for how long?

    It will not kill the bull.

  361. Gary

    DG,
    I haven’t been but I probably should. I may move up to 140% if we get something that is recognizable as a daily cycle low next week.

  362. Shalom Bernanke

    Glad to make you smile, Pima. I know I can be a bit harsh at times, but it’s all in good humor. What’s better than making money and having a laugh while doing it? πŸ™‚

  363. DG

    oa92: Arggh! You sold all your AGQ?! YOu put in an order to buy it back at 182, but what will you do if it never gets there on its run to 150? Then you’ll have to chase. Why did you sell? I don’t see a thing indicating a 10 point decline, and even if I did I wouldn’t sell it…and I’m a trader by nature! To miss a giant move to save a few points is a horrible risk/reward ratio.

  364. Elaine

    For all you conspiracy theorists, an article on The Washington Times claims that the 2008 crash might have had contributing factors such as “financial subversion carried out by unknown parties, such as terrorists or hostile nations”. In other words, financial terrorists.

    ! πŸ™‚

  365. vuvvy

    Gary, I’m not sure if you would like to talk any cycles here on the blog, but any chance the cycle bottom happened at around futures option expiration on the 24th? The previous cycle had been pretty stretched.

  366. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m not selling anything, not a share. Sure, we’re due for a pullback, but if I cashed out every time I thought that in the last month I would’ve missed this beautiful run.
    Bottom line is I was way better off staying in, so much so that even a sharp pullback probably wouldn’t even get near to where I first had an inkling to take profits. This action is great because it’s steadily higher. It’s the sharp jumps that give me an itchy finger.

  367. DG

    MLMT: Good…glad you covered. I do like seeing contrary opinions on the blog. For me, my only request is that you tone it down so that you don’t shake out new subscribers who lack confidence. I bet your posts cost people a lot of money and that’s too bad. Share the thoughts (and reasons for them if possible) without the rhetoric and cajoling perhaps. No need to go away…

  368. Gary

    No way I will sell anything at this point until I think the C-wave is or has topped. It certainly hasn’t done it today.

  369. sophia

    Gary,

    One question: you are obviously very talented in tracking the turning points and your view of the Dollar is pretty accurate. In that case, and as you foresee a small consolidation on precious metals next week, why don’t you try to get those 5%-8% by selling part of your position and buying it back afterwards?

  370. Aaron

    What is it with these silly 1% moves in gold? We just cant seem to rally more than 1%! I hope we see some more meaningful moves as this C wave gets underway.

  371. Gary

    Sophia,
    Because I can’t see into the future. Look at what happened in Aug and Sept. No one, no matter how good they are could have caught those two tiny little blips. And if they lost their position they quickly got left behind.

    I can tell you in no uncertain terms I will not get left behind during the final leg up in a C-wave.

    I’ve siad this many times. Those that get cute and think they can trade this kind of huge momentum move will only succeed in massively underperforming or even worse losing money.

  372. Gary

    Aaron,
    All it takes is 20-25 of those silly little 1% moves for this to turn into a gigantic move.

    That’s actually what I expect BTW. A whole daily cycle of $5-$15 rallies.

  373. Aaron

    Gary, in that case, could gold enter a runaway move? I know we discussed this in the August runup, but we have not mentioned it lately.

  374. Poly

    LOL, it’s funny watching the reactions. Gold is up over $110 in a matter of weeks, we’re all up some 30-50% in just weeks, but still peeps frustrated with daily 1% moves!
    Really! you dont like 1% in one day?

  375. Poly

    Off topic – But who here isn’t maxing out Roth accounts? Huge wasted oppurtunity if you’re not. If you can get it via work, huge! Otherwise I know $5k isn’t much, but with a spouse and 4-5 years of contributions, it sure becomes a windfall before you know it.

    Just an unbelievable gift, making such massive gains and never having uncle Sam touch a dime of it via capital gains or future income tax.

  376. Gary

    Movax,
    QE1 already guaranteed that the three year cycle low was going to be vicious. QE2 just put a punctuation on it.

    There is nothing that can be done to stop the inevitable at this point.

  377. Aaron

    Poly there has been talks of the government taking over the IRAs/Roth etc. to invest in bonds if things get bad enough.
    I have not contributed lately.

  378. Poly

    Sorry guys, but that type of talk is as “conspiracy theory” as it gets!

    Taxes have already been paid on this money! The absolute worse that could ever happen would be the ROTH type would be suspended, but don’t forget ROTH do encourage immediate tax receipts!

  379. DG

    Just sold 1/2 my SPY fat down 70 or a good profit instead of a large one. Someone should have told me to sell this morning! My heart is in shorting this market but I thought we’d get the momentum back and easily make a new marginal high. We’ll see how we close, but I don;t want to be long here if we run out of gas, cause I think we’ll get killed once the momentum fades..

  380. Ryan

    Gary,

    I still have 35% I could add. I already added a big chunk (twice actually) on that big dip last thurs and was saving the rest to add if we got more weakness and as we all know we didn’t. Since we’re probably due for a pullback and late in the daily cycle, do you suggest that it doesn’t matter and just add now or wait for you to add your additional leverage and then I should add?

  381. DG

    Aaron: the chance of the gov’t “taking over” IIRA’s is zero. Any politician who even floated the idea would immediately get thrown out of office. Hell, they can’t even raise the Social Security benefits age by a few years. Confiscate IRA’s? No way.

  382. Shalom Bernanke

    Gotta love the miners hanging in at the highs while the general market weakens. If this continues it’ll put the fire under miners as they benefit from fund inflows based on relative strength systems.

  383. Tudor

    “Glad to make you smile, Pima. I know I can be a bit harsh at times, but it’s all in good humor. What’s better than making money and having a laugh while doing it? :)”

    Throw in a couple of six foot Austrian supermodels and a bottle of single malt. That would be better.

  384. Aaron

    DG, the idea has already been discussed in the US House of Rep…If things get bad enough, Im sure they can do it.

  385. Poly

    Miners showing the way finally, great sign!

    Gary is right on the money here. Break all time high’s tomorrow and Thursday get a nice little break above, then we get a nice $25 drop on Job Friday to setup a few down days into a a cycle low.

  386. Silverman

    Brian,

    Very nice calls on AG and EXK. Thanks a lot for sharing those! Already had both but bought a little more EXK at the open. Also thanks to Bob Loves Hawaii who mentioned EXK on his blog as a potential breakout once it hit 7.5.

  387. DG

    aaron: Can you give me a url that shows this discussion? i have looked and all I see are sites by conspiracy theorists and the like. Any reputable sources I can examine? Thanks.

  388. sophia

    Don’t worry DG, I am like you… was about to buy some puts on NSQ at the open, chickened out and decided to wait for Friday and when I see the market now, I am a tiny tiny frustrated…BUt, bought Silver Futures this morning London time, so smiling with my glitter!!!

  389. ddn3f

    Gold/Silver is moving and the dollar has not broken down yet. Lets see what happens when the dollar breaks down. The dollar has just been in a range all day long, actually for a few days.

  390. Aaron

    DG, I cant find any credible sites either… seems like a bunch of conspiracy sites that I wish to not dwell in.

  391. fubsy_cooter

    Just want to pipe in here that I’ll take a bunch of .5% to 1% days in the pms stacked up for a month or two. Are you kidding? The sentiment wouldn’t budge. Everyone will continue to doubt the move, and it keeps trickling higher. Forget it. That’s a thing of beauty.

  392. Brian

    SB, I like ANV very well also. That pattern on SVM says it should visit 17.50 this go around, but if we see a parabolic end to this wave, I suppose it could do better.

  393. Razvan

    i want to see big moves , not these little $5-10 moves. gold can drop $40 in a matter of minutes and we wasted 3 weeks of gains…no thanks!!
    bring on the momentum!

  394. Bob loves Hawaii

    Thanks Silverman, and for those looking to thank Gary somehow, you can thank Gary by getting people to sign up as subs. I have three so far, all experienced metal/miner guys, and all are blown away by this cycle stuff.

    I’ll keep pitching for ya Gary.

  395. magazine st

    Gary–
    What would you characterize this move in SPX as? Is it an intermediate cycle correction, daily correction? Or still in the category of a runaway move?

    Thanks

  396. Tudor

    Regarding a grab for private pensions (IRA’s, 401k’s) – the name you are looking for is Teresa Ghilarducci. And if you consider anything not reported in the big media as tinfoil hat material, then don’t bother. And if you’re looking for a headline that screams “The Government is Stealing Your Pension!”, well, you won’t find it, at least not in the MSM, because if it happens, it will be much more subtle.

    Try this:

    “Join Demos, the Economic Policy Institute, the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis at The New School and the Pension Rights Center for a Hill briefing to discuss how 401(k)-type retirement savings plans have failed our nation’s workers and families, key principles that should guide sensible reforms to our nation’s retirement system, and various proposals under consideration. This event coincides with the release of a new report by Demos on the failures of the 401(k) system and with and an expanded and updated EPI report on Guaranteed Retirement Accounts.”

    http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/10/groundwork-for-assault-on-individually.html

    And if you do nothing else, read this Business Week article from last July:

    http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jul2010/pi20100715_763691.htm

  397. Razvan

    vuvvy
    nice signal man! i like your work

    just one more confirmation to help our confidence

    let us know when you see a top forming

  398. DG

    Good gosh: I didn’t mean to suggest that the idea could not possibly ever have been mentioned by anyone! It will never happen (until the very, very end) for a simple reason: politicians want to get reelected more than they want to save the government. Hell, if they actually cared about the U.S. we wouldn’t be in the mess we are already in. No one who suggests taking over people’s IRA’s would veer survive even one election. Even Soc. Sec. is considered too hot. Taking people’s private accounts? Who would push that through? for what reason? So they can bet thrown our of office? What constituency would want this?

  399. DG

    Sold the rest of my SPY for a good trade off the signal. I little disappointed we didn’t get further, but my heart (and real money) is in the PM’s. I still have room to add, so am looking forward to the next daily cycle low.

  400. vuvvy

    IRA confiscation is a subject I’ve been following for over a year now. Most of the proposals are not direct confiscation but mandates that would require a certain % put into US treasuries that could not be withdrawn till retirement.

  401. Tudor

    DG, with all due respect…I’m guessing that many people had a similar response as yours when the seeds that led to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and “health care reform” were first hatched. Consider that it is likely that a takeover of private pensions will be marketed as solving the “problem” of insufficient retirement savings for the masses. It might first be voluntary, in which you could designate a portion of your retirement assets into a “Government Savings Account” in exchange for more favorable tax status. Then changes in the tax laws might put IRAs and 401k’s at a disadvantage to the GSA’s. The benefit to the feds would obviously be a huge pool of money to buy U.S. government debt. Hell, Argentina did it, and Hungary is in the process of doing it.

    Don’t ever, ever, ever underestimate the deviousness and desperation of the Parasites on the Potomac to keep the game going. And likewise, don’t discount the willingness of the sheep to be led to slaughter.

  402. vuvvy

    Raz, when my system gives it’s next sell I don’t think it will mark the top. It usually has 2-3 buy/sell signals per large run and I will be adding on it’s next buy, as long as it’s meshing with the cycles.Using Gary’s system with mine has been invaluable.

  403. fubsy_cooter

    Right Shalom
    I’d be out of most positions on a huge move in a single day. Say, if silver popped to 37/oz today. I don’t think that will happen, but its much nicer to ride modest daily gains to a larger overall gain with time, and then sell into a spike up. Anyway, right now, things are orderly, and I like it that way at this stage of the move. Gold hasn’t even broken out yet, although it is now within pennies. Here we go..

  404. fubsy_cooter

    Here we are at a long awaited pivot point. Any opinions on the short term direction of gold from here? Not that I’m shifting my positions…THis is just more out of curiosity…what do people think Gold will do from here at 1430 over the next week or so?

    I mean, big money could use a break out to sell large positions and take profits, or due to dollar collapse will big money recognize the bigger picture and run gold higher to say 1450-1480 or so before taking some profits. Fun little game, trying to predict the direction of things short term.

    My prediction…we break higher to appx 1470, and then back off a bit to consolidate gains.

    F

  405. Jayhawk

    I’m siding with Tudor here…I did a lot of homework on the subject and tend to think things would come in phases…The time to act is now before they lock these up with much high penalties and taxes.

    This was an interesting article

    The Coming Obama Retirement Trap

    I had read about this through this site which I receive weekly free newsletters from-
    Mountain Vision Newsletter

    I’ve started liquidating my retirement funds (my wife and my traditional and Roth IRA’s last year, my Individual 401K…I had one left which was through my own S-Corp, but I rolled that into a Traditional IRA. That was a smaller piece (27K) that I wanted to trade in an IRA…I may end up pulling the plug on that one at some point.)

    Call me paranoid, but I want that cash liquid or in pms…I can always start up my I 401K down the road if need be.

  406. Tudor

    Thanks, Jayhawk. I was just about to post that link. I first became aware of this when I read Ron Holland’s article on Lew Rockwell’s site.

    To the doubters – did you ever think you’d live in a country where government agents would squeeze your nutsack or fondle your boobs as a condition to board an airplane?

    ‘Nuff said.

  407. DG

    Tudor: I guess I’ve been hearing about stuff like this for decades, and we have never actually suffered the various Martian attacks that have been predicted, but I suppose it could happen theoretically. I do NOT underestimate the politician’s desire to accumulate power and money at our expense, and I can certainly imagine some sort of GSA that has more of a tax advantage, but that’s not telling me how to invest my own money. I find that hard to believe (until the very end perhaps). We’ll see what happens. In the meantime, let’s buy more AGQ for protection!

  408. Tudor

    DG – righto! But you owe it to yourself and your family to stay aware of what’s happening in this area and have a plan just in case. Threats to your well-being come in many different forms!

    So sure, let’s not dwell on the issue, but let’s not ignore it either. I suggest you at least read this article by Ron Holland. It will tip you off to some of the things to watch for so you can plan and act accordingly. (And right now, my plan is to ride this bull for all it’s worth!)

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/holland/holland12.1.html

  409. Shalom Bernanke

    “Don’t ever, ever, ever underestimate the deviousness and desperation of the Parasites on the Potomac to keep the game going. And likewise, don’t discount the willingness of the sheep to be led to slaughter.”-Tudor

    Exactly. They’d take it all and slap you in the face if they thought you wouldn’t react. Something like making retirement accounts be invested in “safe” US treasury bonds would fit the bill. You get to bail out your country, and get out of “risky” or volatile investments for retirement at the same time!

    Don’t anybody think for one minute they don’t have their eyes on all the retirement cash, just look what they’ve done to Social Security. And they have the nerve to say it’s in good shape, except when they need to scare voters and steer them in another direction, then they tell you it’s broken.

    My guess is they’ll make taxpayers put a percentage in treasuries “to reduce risk”. LOL

  410. Glen

    IRA “confiscation” is real, and it IS being discussed.

    The way it will be presented is that they will give you, in exchange for your IRA, a guaranteed income for life – i.e., a government-backed annuity.

    Who would not be in favor of that? Especially all the folks (that is, everybody) who lost 50% in the last stock market crash.

  411. Shalom Bernanke

    And with an ever-growing dependent class they’ll have the votes needed at some point to make all those rich people with (any) retirement funds at all pay their “fair” share.

  412. DG

    Thanks, Tudor. I do try and keep open to possibilities. Every outlandish far-out thing that has ever happened was incredibly, amazingly unlikely…until it happened!

  413. Ryan

    DG, vuvvy,

    I asked Gary about wanting to add more whether to just do it now or wait for a daily cycle low but he hasn’t respond yet but from reading your responses, I’m assuming both of you are going to wait to add?

  414. vuvvy

    Yup, we just smashed the all time closing high in the gold pits, and the pit seems to somehow dictate the world’s gold price. Most important moves seem to happen between 8:20 -1:30 EST.

  415. Ben

    Glen and others talking about retirement/pension confiscation. I believe the push to create private accounts for SS was to be a precursor to outright confiscation of IRAs and pensions. It would be done under the guise of a rock solid guarantee, and the way it would likely be done would be to insert your claim (based on your IRA/Pension values) into the SS system. And once there, you’d be trapped like a rat, subjected to currency debasement with meager earnings either from UST’s or other funds but with no true choice to escape the ravages of inflation.

    For those who think it wouldn’t be done, just look at the riots in Argentina and how that didn’t stop them from looting the masses over and over. Desperate gov’t bureaucrats will eventually resort to doing whatever it takes to keep themselves as individuals in control of their gov’t paycheck.

    It’s possible that the gradual screwing of the masses and esp. the retirees will proceed without an impulse function that threatens the system (again); otherwise, if a dislocation or rupture occurs, all bets are off. My timeframe for this is still a minimum of a couple years off and a reason for eventually acquiring some bullion and also overseas savings/investment accounts.

  416. DG

    Ryan: I have quite a good amount and will wait to add for either the daily cycle low or a breakout and subsequent test of the breakout. If we go straight up and never pull back for me to get more I will be a happy camper regardless, but I could use more AGQ if I get a good entry point. Gary has aid he is at 130% and may go to 150% at the daily cycle low.

  417. vuvvy

    Ryan, I am waiting to add any leverage in size,right or wrong. I can’t imagine we just keep going up substantially from here as we probably should have a reaction as we’re hitting new highs and a cycle low timing band.Hopefully my system will give me a sell and rebuy to help me confidently execute.

  418. Ryan

    DG, Vuvvy,

    I have the same feeling we should at least pullback some so I will probably wait. I just hope if we do get a pullback it won’t be the kind of pullback we had last thurs. I already added 2 big chunks with the drop on thurs and yes I was scared as hell to do it. Watching AGQ go to -10.25% in 30 minutes was quite the sight. I think I’ll just wait for Gary’s signal. It would be much appreciated if you posted your sell and re-buy signals. Thanks.

  419. Poly

    I dumped 50 (of 100) Mar $34 SLV contracts @ $0.96, bought as a lottery at $0.14.

    Couldn’t bare getting so close to have it washed away by any daily cycle decline, considering they expire in 12 days. The remaining 50 will just ride to expiration, but the $50k lottery just become a $30k lottery.

  420. Nike Boy2008

    I mentioned fortuna silver mines (FVI) yesterday…

    FWIW, bearing a sell-off, it will close over $5 for the first time ever and may start to be in the radar of a lot of people

  421. Shalom Bernanke

    Uh oh, Beano. My indicators are beginning to hint at further declines for stocks (not miners). Although they’re not yet on full sell, one more just tipped into the “more to come” range, which in this case is lower.

    The good news is there’s still a few seats available on the G-train if you’d like to join us.

  422. DG

    I don’t get buy and sells on gold except very rarely (I did get a buy on SIL at 21.05 on 1/25…that was a good one!). Let’s hope vuvvy can help us.

  423. Poly

    Just a gut call, but I’m feeling a daily cycle top in the works here based on the tape.

    Not that it should change anything at all, except to align expectations and prepare for any fallout, especially as many might have added heavy and late to juniors.

  424. Razvan

    Beanie is one smart dude!
    He left the blog 2 days before the new high in gold, supposedly not to return for 2 years.

    This blog is going to be boring now that we lost all the bears!

  425. T.J. Rand

    I doubt there are many strategies to thwart govt confiscation of retirement savings- much depends on where you are in your life and whether you’ll ultimately need the funds to live on. If not, you can roll an IRA into what’s basically a life insurance trust without taking a haircut – leaves $ for your heirs tax free (as of today’s laws). You can also create an open opportunity IRA that can hold an LLC that owns foreign real estate, or bullion offshore, or anything else, but it’s still inside a US IRA, and if you have any other attachable assets in the US, the gov’t would still have you by the short hairs. Simply cashing an IRA would probably be a better option than any gov’t program.

    My own belief is that the gov’t will use a market crash as cover to aggregate pension, IRA and 401k assets with SS (for the good of our retirees), and will tax the hell out of folks that do other than adopt the safety of the government system.

    Short term, ride the C-wave and figure it all out.

  426. pimaCanyon

    Poly, I also think a daily cycle top is probable here. I am tempted to trade it, but if I do, I will have to keep that a secret from Gary or he will beat the crap out of me. I don’t like secrets, so I’ll just continue old turkey till we get wind of an IT top.

    The reason I think we could see a pullback here is that gold is bumping up against its upper channel line drawn off the late January lows.

    However, a reason that this move could continue is that silver has NOT yet bumped against its upper channel line, so it looks like it could have further upside from here before a pullback.

  427. Poly

    Thanks Pima.
    Although I dumped half of them, I think you really have to take a “lottery” approach to way OTM calls, pick a number, be a little unrealistic, kind of an educated guess πŸ™‚

  428. Poly

    Pima, I wouldn’t trade it, I’m staying strong with all of my ITM calls. We are SO deep in the money now that even a nasty daily low wouldn’t hurt πŸ™‚

  429. Jayhawk

    I pulled all my retirement accounts last year except one individual 401K that I rolled into a traditional IRA…I plan on using this smaller amt as a pure gambling device. I will then pull the plug on it, maybe even this year.

  430. DG

    TLT just showed up on my short screen. I bought some TBT. I have been wanting too won TBT and keep it…maybe the market will give me a chance this time.

  431. coolkevs

    Kevin Depew on Minyanville had an update on the “dollar collapse” today on the Buzz and Banter (free through Ameritrade -> Research and Ideas->Ideas)
    1. On a DAILY basis, it recorded a TD Sequential BUY signal on Friday, and an overlapping TD BUY setup recording yesterday. So, 1-4 days of possible dollar upside through Thursday along with the next couple of weeks seeing some more dollar upside.
    2. There has been a TD Propo Down Momentum level qualified on Jan 31 – unfulfilled downside target of 74.90.
    3. WEEKLY – nearing a potential 9 BUY setup – good for 1-4 weeks, but also has an unfulfilled downside target at 74.90
    4. MONTHLY – still on a deferred BUY signal – will record if/when Dollar index goes below 72.50
    5. QUARTERLY – A buy signal recorded in Quarter 4 last year. No bullish price flip to confirm, but this signal is good for 3 years! The monthly move below 72.50, according to Depew, is the equivalent of a “gnat biting a buffalo” on the long-term chart πŸ™‚
    So, Depew’s view remains that the 72ish level needs to be broken for full exhaustion in the dollar to occur. Because sentiment is so skewed negative, a sudden move below the 72 level will “1)reinforce the viewpoint 2) direct pop media attention to it, 3) set the stage for full exhaustion across multiple Demark time frames thus completing the cycle of a ‘dollar collapse’ just as everyone predicts one'”
    This seems to align with Gary’s views with the 3-year cycle low, so I would be very wary when the DXY “collapses” below 72.5. I would say it would definitely be time to get out of precious metal investments…

  432. Arun

    How convenient of MLMT posting he covered yday at 1410 when we make new highs at 1430 today? If he’d posted that real-time about his exit & average his position, then he warrants credibility. Sorry, he’s a cheat.

  433. Silverman

    vuvvy said…
    … the pit seems to somehow dictate the world’s gold price. Most important moves seem to happen between 8:20 -1:30 EST.

    The corollary to this could be: coordinated moves to run stops and scare the crap out of people seem to happen after 1:30 – since the volume is much thinner and more easily subject to this type of play (e.g. silver last Thursday if I’m not mistaken)

  434. JReality

    Beanie called a top in metals over the weekend on his blog, so that likely means stay long and strong!

    Beanie – “The reversal in the precious metals (gold and silver) yesterday indicates a top may be in for the sector. Today was probably a bull trap — an oversold bounce. Of course, in some super bull markets yesterday’s action could be a nonevent and the bull continues. But in light of the unstoppable bull market in equities, it is likely the top in precious metals is near.”

    http://bettertrading.blogspot.com/2011/02/equities-vs-precious-metals.html

  435. Razvan

    if we had a top here that would make it a quadruple top…sorry but it doesnt exist! i say strong move to 1470 then sharp pullback to 1430 which only last a couple of minutes then back to 1345 where we consolidate for some time.

  436. Wes

    vuvvy,

    I’m wondering if the fact that the pit closes earlier than the market isn’t the key. Wouldn’t you think that if any security closed at a higher price than it’s 1:30PM price, the upside tomorrow is more probable than the downside ? Particularly if the difference in price is significant.

    Maybe it’s that simple.

  437. vuvvy

    Wes, sometimes USERX is a strange beast and doesn’t always follow the main gold indices, and even sub 1.00 moves in gold count. So sometimes gold closes down by 50cents and GDX/HUI close down also but USERX closes up and bam the next day or 2 gold rockets. It’s extremely bizarre behavior at times but backtested to 90 plus % correct since 2001.The guy who came up with this correlation says it has worked since the 1970’s.

  438. vuvvy

    There are a lot of people who say that the gold markets are thin after pit close at 1:30 and they are correct in respect that futures are thin. I was watching GLD intraday volume on last Thursdays downdraft and it was NOT thin so if anyone was gaming the markets it was on volume just not in futures.

  439. Razvan

    lol yes 1445…we wont see 1345 again until this c wave is over. The price is going up so fast i dont know where we are anymore! πŸ˜›

  440. Leilani

    Jayhawk –

    Thanks for opening the discussion on 401Ks and IRAs.

    “I pulled all my retirement accounts last year except one individual 401K that I rolled into a traditional IRA…”

    What do you mean by “pulled.” Did you cash out and paid the taxes?Thank you!

  441. EricH

    “How convenient of MLMT posting he covered yday at 1410 when we make new highs at 1430 today? If he’d posted that real-time about his exit & average his position, then he warrants credibility. Sorry, he’s a cheat.”

    +1

  442. Jayhawk

    Le-

    Yes, I took the money out and will be paying taxes/penalties this year. I’m self employed with my company set up as a S-Corp so I had set up a couple different retirement plans. I also had a Roth and Traditional IRA for me and my wife. All together, 6 different accounts. I put the money immediately into the metals last year, so whatever taxes & penalties there are will be offset by some gains there.

    I’m pretty radical in most of my decisions, so this is normal for me. I kept one IRA–that thing is rocking this year-already up 75%. I plan on taking that out too at some point.

  443. basil

    Not that I want to hype the stock, but SBR.TO is up 23.44 % today and broke out to the upside on what could be a long way to go. Not a recommendation in any way, just sharing my investment and being a little excited today πŸ™‚

  444. Poly

    If you’re not in a ROTH, then you’re simply crazy, IMO.

    I’ve been contributing to a non-deductible IRA for 5 years with the end goal of allowing us (Wife and I) to move tax and penalty free the entire amount ($50k)in 2010 to a ROTH IRA. (Bush law) This loophole is still open to people who can not qualify to contribute due to income limits.

    This $50k, which has increase some few hundred %, is sitting in accounts that are tax and capital gains free FOR LIFE! When these accounts have been opened for 5 years or more, I will be allowed to withdraw the entire amount of my contributions, at ANY time, tax/penalty free. It’s a free lunch and a traders dream.

  445. Leilani

    Thanks Jayhawk –

    What looks to be radical today may prove to be prudent and smart tomorrow. It looks like you are already brillant since you pulled the money out before the start of this rally.

    My husband and I also have a number of pretax accounts – 401K, Keogh, traditional and rollover IRA, Roth IRA…

    As you know – we have had substantial gains since we have gone OLD TURKEY this February. Perhaps I can still take advantage of Obama extending the Bush Tax Cuts for two years to liquidate. After the two year extention, taxes will go up. It may go up before that time in terms of state income taxes. I am in sunny California. πŸ™

  446. Poly

    It’s not possible.

    They may suspend ROTH at some point, but judging by their popularity and the income they bring in, i doubt it.

  447. Leilani

    Poly –
    Anything is possible. Especially when there is desperation, govt and people will do just about anything to survive. Since ROTH has become so popular, it will likely be a hugh target.

  448. Avann

    Canada has something similar … TFSA (tax free savings account).
    Contributions are permitted to a max of 5K per year … this is not tax deductible but all capital gains inside the account ARE TAX FREE.
    Personally, I think this is better then a retirement account since eventually you will have to pay tax on all the money inside a retirement account. This has only been around for 3 years so the maximum contribution so far is 15K … my 15K has grown to 30K (I only opened the account a year ago) … this money can be withdrawn at anytime … there is no waiting period. Anybody not using a TFSA is throwing away easy money.

  449. Poly

    Please stop reading conspiracy sites.
    The sole and single argument ever made against a possible government assault on ROTH’s is the example where Social Security income was tax free and then was taxed. Well last I checked, you never paid a dime of tax on those years of social security contributions, this allowed them to tax it. This is similar to a standard IRA or 401k, you get an upfront tax benefit. A ROTH is after tax money.

    Absolute worse case, if the writing is on the wall, withdraw your funds, ALL OF IT. It’s you’re right under a ROTH. Before retirement age you pay a 10% penalty on the gains ONLY, all contributions are free.

  450. Jayhawk

    They will close that loop before everyone can hit the exits if the “hand writing is on the wall”. Most likely by putting a hefty penalty on taking the funds out. Also look for them to make this a “patriotic duty” issue.

    Some politician down the road will change the law and they will tax the gains on ROTHs IMO. The Greedy Hand never rests, it’s always there wanting to feed its insatiable appetite. I guess I’m a total cynic.

  451. Poly

    Jay, it’s not a loop, but it’s not worth it.

    Nice day today BTW, I couldn’t resist taking some profits in juniors at the close. (Spec accounts)

  452. DA

    If you do an early withdrawal of your gains in a Roth IRA, you pay not only 10% penalty but marginal TAX on them either way.

  453. Jayhawk

    yea, mean they will prevent people from taking $ out by jacking up penalties, etc. Going with my gut here, most likely I’ll be wrong as I’m a cynical man and too much of that pessimism gets me in trouble from time to time.

    It was a great day to be long EXK, SVM, AG. Love those three for sure. I don’t see any reason to sell anything here, everything looks to be breaking out hard on great volume. We could finally get a decent dip, but I’d hate to be chasing.

  454. jeff

    hello i am jeff
    i am a recovering retail gold chaser

    hourly i want to sell

    no buy sell buy sell

    wait….. oh i see now, i am laid in perfect and making money.. just a new feeling
    thanks gary

  455. T.J. Rand

    Jay-

    I, unfortunately, agree with you regarding the Roth…and apparently you and I are rivals for greatest cynic on the site. Our country’s annual debt us unsustainable, and accumulated debt is unpayable. In addition, our entitlement promises can’t be met. I have no idea what comes next for the US system(actually I have ideas, but they are not particularly pretty). Our system is like a dying beast, which will take out a lot of folks as it thrashes around. I believe IRAs and Roths will be casualties.

    And lest anybody is prone to calling this a conspiracy theory, I defy you to lay out a reasonable (and informed) path through this debt mess. It doesn’t exist.

  456. Bob loves Hawaii

    I know Gary hates conspiracy theories, but can someone explain why anyone would pay this kind of premium if there was some unbelief in the paper markets.

    I personally do not care why, but when the NAV relents it signals retracements in the past.

    From Harvey;

    The silver Sprott ETF PSLV (PHS.u) rose to a huge premium to NAV of 17.31%. I guess the world is beginning to notice that silver is nowhere to be found.

  457. Nike Boy2008

    Hi Gary,

    Maybe you can’t answer this on this message board, but in your nightly report.

    I see that people are way too happy and cocky on this board

    Do you think that the USD just threw us a curve ball by moving back over the 77 pivot?

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