THERE GOES THE FIRST SECTOR

Bear markets begin when something fundamental breaks. Usually the sector initially affected will roll over before the general market and tends to be a warning sign of what lies ahead.

The last bear market was triggered when the credit bubble created by Greenspan’s foolish monetary policy burst. It was exacerbated by Bernanke’s foolish attempt to debase the currency and reflate the bubble. All he succeeded in doing was to inflate oil to $147, which put the finishing touches on an already crumbling economy.

The market gave us a warning when the financials began to diverge from the rest of the market. Considering that the banks were one of the leading sectors during the `02-`07 bull the fact that they couldn’t follow the rest of the market to new highs after the February `07 correction was a big red flag that the bull was on it’s last legs.

I’ve been saying for more than a year now that the unintended consequences of QE would be to spike inflation, which in turn would poison the global economy. I knew all along that Ben was never going to create any jobs by printing money and of course he hasn’t. 

So if inflation is going to sink the economy and kill the stock market we should see warning signs from the sectors most affected by rising inflationary pressures, just like the banks warned us in `07 that the fundamentals were broken. 

Sure enough I think we are starting to see those warning signs. 

Emerging markets have been the hit hard by food inflation. We are now seeing food riots in many third world countries. Emerging markets just like financials during the last bull were one of the leading sectors. EEM is now starting to diverge from the rest of the global stock markets. It’s now on the verge of breaking back below the November cycle low.

The other sector that is extremely sensitive to inflation are the transports. When energy costs spike shipping companies profit margins are squeezed. The last two days have seen the Dow Transports fold under the pressure of surging oil prices. Keep in mind oil is only on the 17th day of it’s intermediate cycle. That cycle lasts on average 50-70 days. I think we are going to see $5.00 gasoline by the time the dollar collapses into it’s three year cycle low later this spring.

If the market can recover from the recent correction and make new highs I don’t expect the transports will be able to follow. That will set up a Dow Theory non-confirmation and most bear markets begin with a Dow theory non-confirmation.

China is already in a bear market. I think most emerging markets have probably topped and I doubt the rest of the global markets have more than 2 or 3 months left before the next leg down in the secular bear market begins. 

I think the brief party created by Bernanke’s printing press is about to come to an end.

403 thoughts on “THERE GOES THE FIRST SECTOR

  1. basil

    The transports have broken down in a fashion that suggests more downside to come. There is still a chance that the Transports rally back the next two days as aggressively as they have fallen in the past two, three days, but I very much doubt that will happen.
    With the leader in that entire rally acting like that I just won’t touch any more stocks here.

  2. catbird

    Gary,

    You’ve recently predicted that there will be too much political outcry on The Ben Bernank for him to do QE3.

    But how can Bernanke NOT do a QE3? If oil and ag and the metals keep rising (thus making people fear inflation) then bonds will crater without more QE. In other words, who else is going to buy US Bonds but the Fed? And how else will the Fed buy those bonds but through additional QE?

  3. catbird

    p.s. — interest rates started rising last November even with QE2 in full swing. The Fed has to know rates will become crazy high unless it steps in with QE3, right?

  4. Gary

    If gasoline is above $5 a gallon there’s no way the Fed can keep printing, no matter how much they want to lie about inflation.

    The Fed will have to stop the presses or risk a complete melt down of the currency and when they do the deflationary forces will slam back down on the world.

    This is why the dollar will rally explosively out of the coming three year cycle low.

    There really is no free lunch in this world. And any attempt to get one just makes the problem that much larger.

    Ben is about to face the monstrous problem of a dollar melt down.

  5. basil

    What I noticed yesterday was the fact that all stock market sectors jumped ship at the same time, which included the PM stocks. Today was a very different picture, of course. However, as much as I’d like to believe that PM stocks will go ballistic, even in the face of a hypothetical stock market decline, I just cannot convince myself that they will. Perhaps, there is a window of opportunity right now, but once there is a severe decline and some panic in the market, people tend to get rid of everything at once, regardless.
    Of course, I hope I’m wrong.

  6. Tudor

    The Bernank is boxed in. Every action, including no action, will lead to massive negative outcomes. The elephant in the room is the federal government debt, both existing and yet-to-be created. Ultimately, he will print, because that’s all he knows.

    The “crack-up boom” predicted by Ludwig von Mises is underway.

  7. James

    Gary, should we be worried about holding SLV or AGQ? From Turd Ferguson’s blog tonight:

    “With all of us acutely aware of the supply problems of the Comex, we need to start preparing for the post-EE world. At some point in March or May or July of this year, the Comex will default. Whether or not its a de facto default is of no matter for this discussion. At some point soon, “paper” silver will cease to be a actual asset. Paper silver only has value because it is perceived to be backed by some measure of physical. A Comex failure will, inevitably, lead to a failure of all paper metal assets. Everything from futures and options on futures to ETFs, both the SLV kind and the AGQ format.”

  8. catbird

    Gary,

    If Ben shuts down the presses because gas is $5, won’t rates on Treasuries go through the roof? Where is the US Gov’t going to get dollars to keep putting SS checks i the mail at that point?

    Who else but the fed will buy US Bonds once inflation takes off?

  9. Gary

    There’s always talk of the comex defaulting as gold and silver move into a C-wave top.

    Eventually price moves high enough to bring more supply into the market. Just basic economics 101.

  10. RA

    Gary,

    You mentioned you might add further leverage at the next daily cycle low.

    Would you consider adding instead if the dollar breaks the Feb and/or Nov lows?

  11. Quality Stocks

    Looking at other sectors that have gone down or sideways while the S&P charged up, isn’t the most obvious one staring us right in the face Gary????????……PM Miners? Not to mention coal miners etc.

  12. Gary

    Beanie,
    You just posted a chart of gold in an uptrend with the 50 DMA above the 200 and both still rising.

    Gold is only 4 weeks off it’s intermediate cycle low. Gold is a hedge against inflation. The more money Ben prints the strong the fundamentals get in the precious metal sector.

    Why would that make me thing gold is about to enter a bear market?

    Some times I really wonder if you ever bother to look before you leap, or think before you speak πŸ™‚

  13. Gary

    QS,
    Like I just pointed out to Beanie the fundamentals in the precious metal sector are not broken, they are improving.

    The recent correction was just a normal profit taking event that happens like clockwork about every 20-25 weeks.

  14. Quality Stocks

    I am talking about the miners not the PM themselves….. Just pointing out that like EEM, in your post ‘there goes the first sector’ GDX and GDXJ are both below tops put in a while back just like the sector you mention Emerging markets. Not saying it will stick. Just pointing it out like you were pointing out EEM diverged from SPY. So did Gdx and gdxj.

  15. Gary

    GDX and GDXJ are miners. They follow the price of gold. Gold was correcting into an intermediate cycle low.

    As gold resumes it’s C-wave advance the miners will follow. They are already following. They may lag a bit because oil is spiking and compressing profit margins but the fact remains that the same thing that breaks the fundamentals in the stock market improves the fundamentals in the PM sector.

    Surely you understand this??

  16. David Kafrick

    Gary,

    Let´s suppose that the dollar does not break the November of 2009 low and starts rallying. Based on cycles, at what point would you stop looking for a 3 year cycle low below the November low? According to cycles and any other tool that you use, how soon would you abandon the idea that the 3 year cycle low is still ahead of us and that we´ve made a higher low (with regards to previous 3 year cycle low of 2009)?

    I was looking at previous 3 year cycle lows, and the dollar threw a major curve ball (according to cycle analysis) in 1992. In 1991 it made a 3 year cycle low and then the next cycle became extremely left translated because it topped in 5 months. By mid 1992 it had broken below the 1991 low, so one would have thought that we still had 2 years of the dollar going lower, since next 3 year cycle low was due in 1994. But as we now see, the dollar actually made a major low in 1992 (only 1 year after previous 3 year cycle low) and went on a 10 year rally. In real time, how would you have stopped looking for a lower dollar and realized 1992 was a major low?

    Anyway, sorry for the long questions, just trying to understand how soon, using cycle analysis, one can realize we´ve just been thrown a curve ball. We don´t want to wait for the dollar to rally above $89 to realize the 3 year cycle low has already been made.

    thanks

  17. Gary

    David,
    If the dollar rises above the prior intermediate high then we would have to consider that we got an early 3 year cycle back in Nov.

  18. Bruce

    Gary,

    Do you think Bernanke deserves the highest praise for the people in the middle east revolting and demanding basic human rights and freedoms?

    After all, his exporting inflation through money printing, causing problems paying for food, has worked better than economic sanctions or war, in causing the people to revolt against their own repressive leaders, rather than scapegoating the west or Israel.

    Bernanke has spread the desire for democracy far better than the foreign intrigue/meddling, bullets and blood, formerly tried by US secret services and administrations.

  19. RacerX

    Bruce:

    I’d say it’s naieve to think the protests are all “pro-democracy”. With the muslim brotherhood and other jihadist-leaning organizations involved–not to mention the military themselves, I believe it is simplistic and foolish to assume something “better” will come out of this.
    Case in point: Iran.

    The Bernank and the entire US gov’t crew has failed miserably. I think we are seeing the first waves of this onslaught. There will be plenty more to come. Will things eventually get “better”? Who knows. They will certainly be different than today.

  20. T.J. Rand

    I’ve questioned a couple of times what happens to AGQ and SLV in the event of a COMEX contract/delivery imbalance. For those interested in the potential impacts, here’s an article that lays out what it might look like.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/111852-will-comex-default-on-gold-and-silver

    The cliff note version- JPM is initially on the hook, and then the Exchange. Likely huge short squeeze as JPM/Exchange try to find the metal on world markets. Would likely end in a cash settlement at the higher ‘squeezed’ price. Of course, if JPM needs more $ to handle this sort of thing, it can get them from Uncle Bennie…

    I could have saved myself angst and time by simply listening to Gary about it…but I can be hardheaded in that way.

  21. RacerX

    Gary:

    I concur with some of the other comments regarding PMs & miners. Particularly with memories of the 2008 meltdown. The Hedges, etc. dumped all assets.. If we start seeing that again I do agree it’d be prudent to trim positions to protect against downside.

    And to the other folks; as much as I’d like to be in Oil, the current situation is due mostly to political instability in the region. That can change on a dime, and like we saw a couple years ago, that market can collapse even faster than the rise.

  22. Mission

    $5 gasoline is approximately $170 oil I believe. Gary, does that sound about right to you? Oil at $170 isn’t a crazy idea with the combined forces of mad dog mid east dramas and mad dog Bernanke bucks. In fact, couldn’t we go higher??

  23. David Kafrick

    My take on equities is that if the S&P can get to 1270 before retracing as much as 20 points or so, that will signal a major change in trend.

    Until that happens, I think we are still in safe territory.

  24. Gary

    Racerx,
    That was only during a once in a generation selling climax where any and everything was dumped to meet margin calls. It also happened to be an 8 year cycle low for gold. The next one isn’t due till 2016.

    There’s no way in hell I’m going to dump any of my PM positions right as the final leg up in this huge C-wave is getting started.

    I may not be the smartest guy in the room but even I’m not dumb enough to make that kind of colossal error.

  25. pvm999

    On the hourly chart, gold is making higher highs and higher lows.

    Silver is diverging.

    Just wondering, could silver be ready to lead gold into the daily cycle low?

  26. Gary

    TV,
    It has to go a little under 77. 76.85 should do it.

    PVM,
    your probably wasting your time watching intraday charts of the metals. they are too volatile for intraday to have any meaning. But I tend to think silver is just consolidating the big move, with probably one more push higher before the daily cycle correction begins.

  27. vuvvy

    Looking back historically at gold from the 70’s, there was only one major correction in 1975/76 so I also doubt we will have another major crash as we likely have put in our major correction in 2008.However, the jury is still out right now whether this gold bull continues as Gary expects till 2016 or tops 3 years after the major bottom as in 1979/1980. The 3 year mark for us will be late this year.

  28. ecemery

    Gary,

    As a forex trader I also enjoy reading your take on equities and gold – thanks.

    A good question for you and your readers.

    As outlined in your posts and general view of the future in markets..if/when the U.S dollar “collapses” – and stocks go “bear”…where do you envision the money going?

    The troubled system of the EUR or GBP? – i think not.

    Yen? – ya that looks like a great economy/currency.

    AUD / NZD ? CAD ?? – the “risk related currencies”…ummmmmmm no I don’t think so.

    See what I’m getting at?

  29. Gary

    A secular bull market that tops with only a 400% gain?

    A secular bull market that tops before even making new all time highs? (In inflation adjusted terms gold would need to rise well above $2000 to just match the 1980 high.)

    A secular bull market that tops before the public piles in a creates a bubble?

    That doesn’t sound like any secular bull market I’ve ever heard of.

  30. Gary

    E,
    The dollar will soar again just like it did in 08 & 09.

    You have to understand how the law of action and reaction works. The process of collapsing down into the three year cycle low will stretch the dollar extremely far below the mean. All assets eventually regress to the mean. On both the upside and downside.

    It will be the explosive rally out of the three year cycle low that will drive another brief deflationary period.

    Well until Bernanke starts printing all over again. Next time instead of trillions it will be 100’s of trillions. The man is incapable of learning from his mistakes.

  31. vuvvy

    Gary, a hypothetical question. If gold makes a massive run this fall and doubles or more in a relatively short amount of time would you re-evaluate and say we may have made a long term top?

  32. DG

    Silverman: If you have been reading my posts, you might have guessed that got out the same day and lost 15¢ on the 1000 shares. I play with tight stops and have been wanting to short this market, so there was no way I was going to “tough it out.” This was not a big-picture buy, because I believe the next move of consequence is down. It was a stab at a bottom so as soon as it failed I was out. Apologies for not posing the exit, but as I always play with very tight stops in such situations I figured it was clear.

  33. Gary

    V,
    I do expect an A-wave this fall. But for me to think a final top has formed I would need to see gold at $4000-$7000.

    I would have to see everyone and their cousin buying gold. That process usually lasts about a year to a year and a half.

    So there really isn’t time for the final bubble to form by this fall.

    Trust me we’ll know it when gold enters the final bubble stage. At the moment we aren’t even close.

  34. vuvvy

    I agree with you Gary. I do think the final top will be obvious whether it’s sooner or later but will be extremely hard to sell into as the economic/political situation will be in turmoil.

  35. Gary

    I had no trouble selling my real estate when it became obvious it was in a bubble.

    I doubt I will have any trouble selling my PM either.

  36. mamaloshen

    Basil

    Another double long oil is DIG (ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas). The opposite (double short) is DUG. Easy to remember.

    I’m toying with the idea of buying a small amount of the latter when the oil spike reverses at some point.

  37. DG

    Early heads up: If the Dow closes down today I will very likely get a buy signal. This is a solid system buy, so 80%+ likely to give us a sharp rally within 5 days, with virtually no drawdown. Given the past few days it makes sense and I will play it in size. I’ll post later and near the bell. As usual, if we really fall apart later it will abort.

    DG

  38. Silverman

    DG,

    No problem. I thought that might be the case. I took a small position which is currently about even. Will probably sell today before the close.

    Thank you for responding.

  39. Gary

    I forgot to mention in last night’s report there is a VTO trade signal on all markets. You find the rules in the terminology document.

  40. DG

    Gary’s VTO signal fits perfectly with my buy signal. Let’s hope we get that down close! If we get the dollar collapse he expects we might put on another SPX left. I will buy and hold if we get the buy today.

  41. Gary

    If gold can end the day higher it will match the longest streaks of the fall rally.

    This is the kind of strength I was expecting during a final C-wave advance.

  42. DG

    oops—typo—I meant “we might put on another SPX LEG.” (of the bull, to perhaps top out when the dollar bottoms).

  43. Jayhawk

    Anyone else notice the volume on SIL is lower than many of these junior miners? It trades like a freaking pink sheet.

    Gary-
    How does a D-wave fit in with the yearly low on gold? I’m assuming the timing band on a yearly low has come and gone so we’ve technically already printed it at 1307?

    D-wave if we hit 1600 could take us back to 1250 if we get a 50% retrace.

    TZ-I did dump my inlaws GDXJ. thanks for the feedback

  44. DG

    Alex: O.K., I bought some more GPL and will start building a modest position in it. Just tell me it won’t open at 1.50 one day because they find out the CEO is Mubarak’s cousin or something. I can manage positions—it’s the gaps that scare me.

  45. DG

    C’mon Gary! I remember perfectly well the post where you said silver would never have another down day!

    (That’s not a poke at you Jayhawk. I know I sure the hell have gotten spoiled!)

  46. Romeo Bravo

    DG, I’m not sure of another leg higher. Did you see the news from Proctor and Gamble (PG) this AM? They are having to raise prices on many of the basic consumer goods most American’s use every day. Let’s just say their stock is not up today.

    If other goods producers use this as their signal to raise prices, I don’t think it foreshadows a bull market in equities.

  47. DG

    oa92000: SPX. I won’t add more PM’s now until the daily cycle low. The buy signal would be for the mkt in general. We need to be down around 50 or less I am guessing in order for it to activate

    BTW the STP buy I posted yesterday at 9.54 is on fire! Thanks to whoever posted it a while ago. After it’s good looking high-volume breakout I have been waiting for it to test the low 9.50’s level, and it did yesterday morning. There will be more talk of alternative energy as oil goes higher I assume.

  48. Ben

    I see lots of ads in the paper now for people to SELL their gold.

    When the top comes, we will have seen ads for the public to BUY gold for at least a year. That’s what happened in 1979-80. And I knew ordinary people trying to buy bullion. Today, I know… zero.

    “Can’t you see what’s happening? Potter’s not selling. Potter’s BUYING!”

    But he’s going to sell.

  49. Shalom Bernanke

    Jay,

    I’ve got my eyes on ’em, but it’s still early. The big question today is if S&P’s castrate bears once again with a late day rally or not?

    We’re getting close to Gary’s line in the samd determining if the runaway move is stocks is over.

    Did you see my question on AG earnings, or are you going to make me do the work? πŸ™‚

  50. Poly

    Thanks Jawhawk, picked up a packet of SVM.

    Now riding SVM, GPL, EXK, AXU (bought them back)as my junior miner “pack”.

    If they tank, this forum is coming after you and Alex πŸ™‚

  51. Ryan

    Another horrible day for UNG and I can say that I feel a lot better finally able to take the loss. I moved what was left over to add to my AGQ.

  52. ALEX

    SB

    Ag’s earnings are pretty stellar. they are producers..they’ve increases profits quarter over quarter and yr over yr , they recently interviewed the C.E.O. and he is forecasting increased silver production quite a bit. I will look for that article..

    for now

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/first-majestic-silver-corp-production-up-72-to-653-million-oz-ag-in-2010-exceeds-guidance-by-9-2011-01-11?newsid=1020041038&dist=bigchartssymb%3DAG&sid=2535547

    It looks to be trying to fill that gap @ $14.20. I’d buy more πŸ˜‰

  53. DG

    Ryan: We’ve all been there. Think about what you did. Burn it into your brain. If you can learn the lesson from it, what you lost will be saved many times over from here on. Don’t ever let a loss get out of hand such that it gets to the point where you spend more time thinking about it than other trades or positions. It takes a little piece of your soul every day. Just get out. Glad it’s now in AGQ…well maybe tomorrow we’ll be glad πŸ˜‰

  54. ALEX

    Dg, nice buy on your STP,

    and your GPL will be good if you can hang on πŸ˜‰

    I Sold 1/2 my EXK yesterday & bought more KOG yesterday, BRNC today-

    ( and looked at BQI ,TGC, and LEI for possible quick money, to add back to P.M.’s…but I dont think P.M.’s will languish low much ,really).

    Plan on selling KOG and BRNC for more P.M. ,but they look like good breakouts from here…so holding for now

  55. Poly

    Troops are mounting defenses @ 12,000 and 1,300 on the indices. VIX actually down. If this runaway is alive, a 3rd day afternoon rally would certainly fit the bill, especially at these levels.

    Tempted to take a S&P long with a tight stop just under 1,300.

  56. Shalom Bernanke

    Thanks Jay, I’ll read whatever you have.

    Pima, Bullard is not a clown because he does not want QE3, he’s a clown because he works at the Fed. It’s important to realize all their statements are nothing but posturing to influence the subjects.

  57. ALEX

    POLY

    You are safe with that packet of minors I.M.O. – good earnings and production, however–

    I dont know about Jayhawks , but I can still run pretty fast πŸ™‚

  58. Ryan

    Thanks DG, you’re absolutely right. It was really eating me up a little at a time. I definitely learned from it and won’t let losses get that out of hand again. I’ve also learned I will NEVER EVER touch natural gas with a 10 feet pole no matter how tempting the trade looks πŸ™‚

  59. Jerred

    Another great post by reformed broker.

    Ingredients:

    1 Jesse Livermore quote

    3 PerfCharts, preferably from Stockcharts.com but Finviz will do in a pinch

    1/3 cups vague statements about position sizing

    1/3 cups ambivalent chatter about how we’re in “a market of stocks”

    1 28 oz can poker metaphors (can substitute football metaphors if blogging in the fall)

    A punch of “risk management” platitudes

    A dash of “my discipline”

    Instructions:

    1. Preheat a conventional oven to 375° with CNBC on in the background

    2. Combine all ingredients in a skillet set on a medium flame, reserving poker metaphors to the side

    3. Stir with blatantly unnecessary Fibonacci fan

    4. Add snark to taste

    5. When content is browned, mix in poker metaphors, transfer to oven for 20 minutes

    6. Check traffic while baking, “can’t believe Tadas didn’t pick up that post yesterday”

    7. Remove from oven, let cool 5 minutes before cross-posting to Seeking Alpha

    8. Garnish with links to another post you wrote last week, serve via StockTwits

    A perfect description of TK’s Slope of Hope

    ROFL

  60. AJ

    I totally agree with DG on losses. Its just as important to preserve your mental capital as it is to trading capital.

  61. Jayhawk

    I was just looking at ROYL. I thought the mania in miners would do stuff like that one day…One can dream.

    Poly-you better not come at me, I’ll sick my body guard on you. His name is Gary Savage and he can squat a Buick. He also wears a mean set of gold & silver knuckles. He breath smells like burritos too.

    SI 4 hour chart looks like a bull pennant. Target 37. πŸ™‚ (Long shot?)

    SI

  62. ALEX

    For ‘AG” ( first Majestic Silver)

    FMSC in this artcile is First Majestic Silver Corp-

    “FMSC is considered the purest silver company in the world and presently owns and operates three producing silver mines in Mexico, the La Parrilla Silver Mine, the San Martin Silver Mine and the La Encantada Silver Mine. It has grown from an development stage company into a world-class senior silver producer, producing 7,024,055 equivalent ounces of silver in 2010. Additional information about FMSC can be found at http://www.firstmajestic.com.”

  63. DG

    Jay and Ryan: FWIW, I am glad to see how disgusted you and everyone else is with Nat Gas. I expect it to have a huge rally at some point given the fact that everyone believes it will never rally again. That is the stuff from which major bottoms are made. When I couple that with the fact that the smart-money commercial hedgers are long more than ever before in their history, I become interested. I believe Gary’s “Blees rating” on gas would be 105 if it could ever cross 100! Waiting…waiting…I hope I get a bottom clue. Unfortunately, UNG is a wasting asset so you really need to time it right.

  64. Jayhawk

    I like NG as a beaten down commodity that is a longer term investment option. I just hate the fund that is UNG.

    Anyone have any ideas on good stocks in the sector?

  65. ALEX

    Jayhawk

    I used to trade GMXR. I made a LOT of money , and I lost the same with this one. It just tends to fool me ( it looks good breaking out sometimes , then if you dont take your profits , it grinds down and takes them back). Forewarned πŸ™‚

    SB

    UR welcome, and its on my ‘Buy more’ list after I sell KOG and BRNC-it really moves well when it goes and is a fast growing producer w/ good result.

    Going for lunch-happy trading all!

  66. DG

    Yeah, CHK is the class of the field…it just doesn’t move with NG because it’s a stock (look at the last few months).

    By the way, my favorite is SJT. I have traded it many times and have virtually never lost on it and it has a big yield as a NG trust. I will post when i buy it next.

  67. DG

    For those looking to by uranium-oriented stuff: NLR just popped up on my buy screen. I bought some since the 50 DMA is just a little below here. Careful—it’s thin.

  68. MBS

    Gary–
    What would you call this SPX move down? Would it be a daily or intermediate cycle correction or just a pullback in a runaway move?

    Thanks

  69. Techperson

    Gary said corrections so far have been limited to 20 to 35 points.
    Last Friday was the S&P 500 high at 1344. A 35-point correction should have stopped at 1309, and we blew through that today. The 60-point correction he identified as the “something more serious” level would take us to 1284. The line in the sand on the fractal charts I use should be at 1275, with a bottom coming between March 8 and March 22.

  70. Avann

    I still have some cash left but I think I’ll wait for a daily swing low … I need to have a stop that’s not quite so far away.

  71. DG

    oa92000: Doesn’t matter. I usually play the Q’s for no good reason. Getting the buy right is the thing. I will buy Q’s and SPY’s if the Dow is down less than about 80. I’ll post later.

  72. pimaCanyon

    Strellsy, at what price (gold and silver) will you pull the trigger to add?

    (My silver tank is pretty full, so I may not add there. But it would be nice to top off the gold tank.)

  73. Jayhawk

    Why do we trade the most manipulated market in the history of the world? (silver & gold). This is seriously started to piss me off. I’m about to sell this crap and buy Beanies picks.

  74. Avann

    The only thing I don’t like right now is that our stops are far enough away to turn this into a losing venture.
    That’s why I say bring on the correction now and the first complete cycle. Once my stop is in positive territory all the stress is gone.

  75. basil

    seems like some large money kept it up to let some other sectors crater (energy), and now it’s buying the other sectors and lets PMs crater.

  76. Ryan

    Thanks Basil. My last big add to AGQ is now underwater so I’m going to be brave here and try to pull the trigger to add more. I HOPE that’s a good sign that I’m scared?

  77. DG

    Don’t let ’em close up! This is the best SPX long side setup I’ve seen in months. Give me that buy signal!

    BTW: SPY $46mm BoW

  78. Avann

    If silver measured the cycles we would have a swing high today … no such luck with gold. Maybe we can convince Gary to use silver πŸ˜‰

  79. Gold Lion

    Today is the first time I am having second thoughts, that possibly Larry Edelson over at Uncommon Wisdon is correct that gold will pull back to 1225-1265 support area. Anyone else getting that sinking feeling? LOL

  80. basil

    Ryan,
    not necessarily πŸ˜‰ but there’s no way around that feeling, unfortunately. Btw, I’m right there with you! I also added AGQ at about 182, and I’m not feeling so great about it now.

  81. Aaron

    Gary, it seems like your subs require some hand holding here πŸ™‚
    This rise is volatile, and those who are scared to add when we pull back just end up sitting out the ride up once it resumes.

  82. pimaCanyon

    I head you Jayhawk. Quite a day, giving back most of the past several days, all in the space of an hour or two.

    However, Gary warned us that this was not going to be easy. This bull will buck and buck hard, trying to throw us all off, so the big boys can pick up our positions and walk away with it all.

  83. Ryan

    Wow what a drop in a matter or minutes. I’m definitely scared now. I added a big chunk and already down 5%. Now I’m wondering if I should add the rest… Very scary.

  84. Beanie

    In my opinion, I think people should take their pm profits and run run run.

    The fear trade is pretty much ova.

    The top was in when pm’s rallied hard on Middle East, and they have nothing to do with the Middle East!

  85. pimaCanyon

    $30 silver is only a 50 percent retrace of the move up from the 1/28 low. We haven’t even hit the 38 percent retrace yet.

    In a strong uptrend, retracements are usually 38 percent or less. 38% would be about 31.23 on the May silver futures.

  86. Josh

    I’m buying this too, but keeping dry powder in the keg.

    SB: I don’t have your patience. . . but then you knew that already, right? πŸ™‚

  87. TZ(5288)

    I have two levels on SI where I have intended to purchase.

    The hit we just made was the first, most agressive level so I’m gonna risk a position with a reasonable stop on it.

    Good chance it doesn’t hold though and then I would be looking for something like 31 or so.

  88. Shalom Bernanke

    Josh,

    I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t tempted. In fact, I’ve put some orders a few % points below current prices in case they slide into the close.

    If tomorrow should stabilize I can always add then, too. Prices won’t be as good, but I’ll be confident in the short term direction. I DO love buying into pukeouts, but if I don’t get one, I can buy the pullback off an up open as well.

  89. ddn3f

    Didn’t vuvvy say yesterday that USERX was down and gold was up? Which means gold was going down today.

    Vuvvy,
    Does that indicator give the magnitude or only the direction? Or is it if you get the signal, the magnitude is a pretty big move.

  90. DG

    Buy signal imminent. No near the close post for me…I will be busy. There are no guarantees in this business, but this feels like a money-in-the-bank one to me. Have to admit the market’s been weird though…

  91. Shalom Bernanke

    Pima,

    Only because it’s been my experience that sharp moves like this (especially the first one) have some follow through at some point the next day, meaning even if we get an up open I’ll still be able to add.

    That said, anybody buying miners today will be fine as long as they stay the course. I just hope to do a little better, knowing it’s likely I’ll get an oppty tomorrow as well (even if it’s getting in at slightly higher prices after morning pullback).

  92. blammo

    This is why I appreciate MLMT’s contributions and don’t understand the cat calling. He identified 1396 some time ago and it is a magnet!

    He could well be in the green on his shorts now and don’t see him laughing and name calling.

    Anyhow, I didn’t add today (or yesterday) and will wait to see what tomorrow brings. I am still green on my positions for this cycle (but just barely).

  93. Shalom Bernanke

    It would also be nice to see the miners pull back a tad closer to the 50% retracement from the last several week runup. It’s not necessary, but does often occur. Just like Gary saying the D-wave will correct 50% of the entire C-wave gains.

  94. LowTax

    SB – I think you’re right; the HUI rarely closes on the LOD without revisiting or moving lower the next day or soon thereafter.

    DG – thanks for the buy signal tip.

  95. Ryan

    SB,

    I hope there’s not that much more downside. I’ve added a lot today and close to my 100%, I did keep some power dry but I really don’t want to use it. I hope Gary does some hand holding in tonight’s newsletter. I’m feeling pretty rattled.

  96. David Kafrick

    DG,

    Your buy signal is only for a 1% move up, right?

    I´m thinking that we may trade to 1320-1325 in the S&P tomorrow or early next week, but I don´t think we will go to new highs before testing today´s low once again.

  97. vuvvy

    DDN, doesn’t give magnitude and it usually is good for a couple days. Unfortunately it just did the same thing again, pit up and USERX surely will be down today. Keep in mind it works much better with pit down and USERX up, and going long is the only way I trade it.

  98. DG

    David K: Yes, it is good for an immediate 1%. Given Gary’s call for increased dollar weakness and that this is the first correction we’ve had, I will probably ride some and see if the SPX can make new highs. I bought 2000 SPY and may add tomorrow if it looks right. A point net would be nice, but new highs would be better πŸ™‚

  99. Shalom Bernanke

    Ryan,

    Well, we won’t know if you were a bit early or not until tomorrow, but the bigger picture is that you’re on the right side of a monster bull market. Many are looking to buy and that will put in a floor at some point, but I can tell you there is no way I sell into weakness in a bull market unless I’m stopped out (I use wide stops so to make it highly unlikely, and adjust position sizes lower accordingly).

    I’m not remotely worried about the bull ending, so the game is to have size you can ride through all the volatility. Good luck with your positions, and I will be adding soon myself.

  100. Jayhawk

    Strange day…My regular brokerage was up 22% a day or so back…Now up 13! IRA was up yesterday 48%, now 30%. Wow…quite the take down. Sorry, but I believe the conspiracy clan. This was an outright attack.

    I’m adding leverage and calls in the AM.

    Check out the action AH on SLW. 15M order at 40.
    SLW AH

  101. Shalom Bernanke

    LowTax just gave some great advice. You can rest easier knowing that a bull market will at least let you out of the trade. (if you changed your mind about the prospects, which I have not).

  102. pimaCanyon

    thanks, SB.

    So you think if we get an up open, the market could, later in the day, go below today’s low? How likely is that to happen in your opinion (that we go lower after opening higher)?

    I tried to pick up some more GLD calls this last half hour when /gc was trading at 1396 – 1397, but I was being stingy with the bid and didn’t get filled. I will try again tomorrow, and hopefully get a better price.

  103. pimaCanyon

    Does anyone remember whether Gary has talked about an average number of days that gold takes to make a daily cycle low once it has put in a daily cycle top?

    Seems likely that today’s high will turn out to be the top of this daily cycle, so I’m wondering how many days down from here would be typical.

  104. David Kafrick

    What happened today has nothing to do with manipulation. How many of you have been around long enough to have traded other bull markets? They are always like this. If riding a bull market was easy emotionally, why do most people lose money in the markets?

  105. TZ(5288)

    >Sorry, but I believe the conspiracy clan. This was an outright attack.

    The main silver futures contract (with high open interest) enters “first position day” at the end of the day tomorrow.

    Anybody long the march silver contract is indicating intention to take delivery if they are still long at that point.

    The purpose of the Fed/Morgan is to drive out as many longs as possible or make them waver on desire to take delivery before tomorrow’s close.

    Obviously they accomplished that with the move here today. That may be all or there may be more tomorrow as a follow through.

    It isn’t a coincidence we are dropping as that first position day arrives.

  106. Nike Boy2008

    if we look at the volume today on the silver take down, it’s not very high…might just be shaking off some weak hands..we’ll see..waiting for Gary’s report now πŸ™‚

  107. TZ(5288)

    PS: no there is no indication of a comex default. But that doesn’t mean the guys in charge won’t try to shake things as hard as they can anyway.

  108. Avann

    pima … if this swing high marks the high then we have anywhere from 2 to 10 days to complete the cycle. Let’s pray for 2. Sideways tomorrow and a swing low on Monday … thank you very much.

  109. pimaCanyon

    What’s the BEST –GOLD– miner out there? In terms of low cost of production and availability of ore?

    I’ve got some silver miners and SIL, but no individual gold miners. I have a small GDXJ position, but I’m not liking it, so may dump it.

  110. Ryan

    I guess I’m feeling nervous because I was late on the train and I waited and waited and then added a large chunk a couple of days ago and then another large chunk today. Unfortunately, I don’t have the same buffer as you guys, I’m barely in the green. But thanks guys, you’re right I just have to know it is a bull market after all.

  111. james r

    I believe we are on day 19

    Ave. cycle 20-28 days,

    So we are in a perfect situation for a cycle low to happen in the next few days.

    James

  112. David

    Nice call, MLMT — even though gold is still over 1400, a price you warned us it would never trade again.

    BTW, I’m down $500k today and feeling fine.

  113. Jayhawk

    TZ-

    you get it…exactly what happened today.

    Pima-no frickin clue what’s going on. Large order at high prices in SVM, SSRI, PAAS, NGD too…I’ll check others.

    Dave-You are down 500K? Holy cow…It’s all relative but what % are we talking here?

  114. Shalom Bernanke

    “So you think if we get an up open, the market could, later in the day, go below today’s low? How likely is that to happen in your opinion (that we go lower after opening higher)?”-Pima

    I don’t necessarily suggest that on an up open we’ll go into negative territory. I mean that even if there is a strong open, things will often pull in at some point, not necessarily go negative although that also could occur.

    For example, if miners opened up huge (less likely IMO), I could buy the late morning dip even if we’re still up. What I think is more likely is that miners will open up or down just a little, then we still get some follow through lower, which I will use to add to positions. The only way I get burned by this strategy is if miners gap up huge, and rip higher all day long, in which case I didn’t add, but still have all my current positions intact.

    I’m not rattled at all right now, as this is something all of us hoped would happen last week. The only question is when to add and how much.

  115. basil

    Pima Canyon,

    of course, everybody is going to give you a different answer to that question. SVM is a low cost miner. I listened to the CEO on financial sense news hour. He said they dig up their silver for negative cost, because the sales of the by products that they dig up with it (like lead I believe) pays for the whole operation of mining the silver. I think he might have even said that they are the cheapest producer of silver in the world. Perhaps you can still find that interview on financial sense.

  116. basil

    I think that was pretty much the entire draw down. It might dip slightly lower tomorrow, but I see it crawl back up to 180 during the next two weeks. It hit the upward trend line on the mark.

  117. fat boy

    Well I added some leverage
    at slw 38.43
    also swapped gdxj for some agq at 177 (whoops) and only have 9% cushion left on that position
    8% cushion on the SLW

    in at %117
    maybe set the gdx stop later for the am 55.20 as per plan

    what do you think?

  118. David

    I reckon I took a 7% drawdown. Thanks AGQ!

    However, I have no margin, and it’s all house money.

    I will be watching the next few days closely. I lived through Fall 2008 as a PM investor and don’t plan on repeating the experience.

  119. Vonda

    @ David, If I had enough in the first place to be able to suffer a 500K draw down, think I’d be feeling fine too! But thanks for the no-sweat, voice of calm.

    Who was it that said a day or two ago that s/he was bored with seeing AGQ in the 180s?

    I’m 12% down today on a mix of SLW, AGQ, SLW June 40 calls and SIL APR 23. So much prettier watching it go the other direction . . .

  120. LowTax

    SB – “I’m not rattled at all right now, as this is something all of us hoped would happen last week.”

    Yes! It’s amazing to watch people’s emotions in real time though – last week we were hoping for this. Today people are groaning in pain and looking nervously for the exits. Hillarious!

  121. Aaron

    Ive been trading gold for years, and nothing you say will ever convince me that this market isnt manipulated. Silver is simply insane!
    Afterhours, on thin volume, massive beat downs, the volume charts speak for themesleves, which idiot would dump thousands of contracts at market? Even my broker recommends against doing that to avoid upsetting the price. Its just idiotic.

  122. Vonda

    Well, here’s hoping you get back to thumb twiddling soon, Basil! (“Oh my, these boring profits!”)

    No exit here,LowTax . I like my seat in the theatre. Besides, I suffered much worse before I found Gary–and by extension y’all–a year ago come this July. Appreciate the comaraderie and the great learning.

  123. pimaCanyon

    basil,

    Thanks. But I already own SVM and they are a SILVER miner, right? I’m looking to add one or two GOLD miners, so I’m wondering what’s the cream of the gold miner universe.

    (I know Gary believes silver will outperform in this last leg up of the C wave, but I want a gold miner or two just in case.)

  124. Avann

    Vonda … very true … if it wasn’t for this blog and Gary I would have been running for the exits today … like I’ve done on many occasions.
    Thanks to Gary and the level heads here I’m able to stay on course …

  125. David

    Basil,

    I’m not that nervous about it, but at the same time there’s a limit to my faith in cycle theory. It makes sense to have a line in the sand (perhaps 150dma) just in case the cycles prove to be off this time. If you’re all-in, you have to have some kind of risk control in place

    Mind you, unless you think the bull market ended today, and I don’t, it’s more about avoiding emotional wear and tear than anything else.

  126. Poly

    We got very stretched quickly, wiped out two 2 days of solid gains. But we’re still up handsomely and Silver still above 10dma.

    Doesn’t appear to be anything out of expectations, so far.

  127. DG

    Pima: I wound up just buying SPY’s. My stop is 1%. If the signal is successful we should not drop that much before rallying at least that much, so my risk/reward is dead even, but the signal is 85% likely to work, based on the past 35 years of backtesting.

  128. kmisak

    So David is down half a mil. at 7%down today. Funny, because I went down 7.2% today and saw that nasty red -43,ooo in my account. Ha! Peanuts I say! Someday I hope to shrug off a Goliath loss as easily as you did, David! Thanks to the plan, I could take one more whack like this one and still be even for 2011.

    Looks like, as silver fell after 3 p.m. eastern, a lot of people got stopped out. I learned that lesson the hard way when I first started, and do not use stops any more… Gary, you are my stop now!

  129. pimaCanyon

    Just took a quick look at the top gold producers and what the heck happened to NEM today? A one day drop that took it all the way back to the 1/28 low!

    GG and ABX dropped but neither came anywhere near their lows of 1/28.

    OTOH, KGC dropped BELOW its 1/25 low TWO DAYS AGO!

    I like the GG and ABX charts the best of these four. These are NOT JUNIOR miners though! They are the big boys.

  130. Ryan

    Yes, I was hoping for a down day to add last week but I guess I’m a bit rattled b/c we dropped so fast so quickly. It also didn’t help I was so late on the train ride. But I’m not running for the exits, still holding course.

  131. bamster

    Like Poly said, the selloff began after 1:30 when the market closed. At the close , gold was actually up for the day during regular hours.

    Heh, where’s Gary.

  132. pimaCanyon

    DG,

    One more question:

    That’s 1 percent below your purchase price, right?

    Your purchase price less one percent is just below today’s LOD. LOD = 129.70. If you bought at the close, your stop would be 129.63 the way I calculate it.

  133. mylifemytrade

    @DG good trade on SPY. Today’s lows should hold at least into tomorrow and very likely into marginal new highs next week.

    If today’s lows get taken out, it may mean much bigger up move in equities is upon us.

  134. DG

    I did buy at the close, but I am not slavish about these things. That is, we may be down 1.1% and i decide to hold for a bit, or i may get out at .6% if the tape looks wrong. Most of my trading has clear guidelines for entries and mushier exits. The one rule is Do Not Marry A Losing Position. Get Out And Live To Fight Another Day. Given that I don’t worry about hard and fast stops too much. I know I’ll dump before real damage is done.

    This whole tuning in to Gary’s way is a challenge for me. I’d normally have sold all my SLW yesterday on the rally back to the top of the reversal day’s range after the day before’s high-volume reversal…but didn’t. I keep going back and forth in my mind on what my strategy should be. Most people, if they get out, will not get back in, but I know I would so that layer of protection he advises (“stay the course so you don’t miss the move”) might not be necessary for me and that approach causes me to miss moves I’d normally get right. I sold everything at $1400 and was glad of it. This time the clues were there and I held. Hmmm…

  135. DG

    By the way, that 2nd paragraph above was about Gary’s PM approach not the SPY’s I bought, obviously. It just reminded me…

  136. Intern

    DG,

    So capital gains tax doesn’t enter into your thinking/strategy when getting in and out?

    And the small losses caused by tight stops don’t eat away your account?

    Thanks

  137. bamster

    For all you option traders living in Canada. From your experience, which online broker has the best trading system, whether it be for options or stocks. I need to switch brokers. Thanks.

  138. DG

    Intern: I have lots of money I tax free accounts. As/if I accumulate money in taxable accounts I may have to pay attention to taxes, but currently I don’t. I may also move to trading futures a la TZ’s recommendation for tax purposes (but I bet they change that tax law soon—they’re desperate for money).

    Regarding stops: I have spent my entire investment life refining entry points. most people stick a tight stop in at a random place because they “don’t want to lose much.” That will kill you. I posted a buy on STP yesterday and it went 4¢ against me at it’s worst. My FCX trades last week went 8¢ against me on a $50 stock. Given that, the tight stops do not hurt me, but I agree with Gary that for the vast majority of traders they just get you out of what would have been a winning trade.

  139. mylifemytrade

    @James R,

    Yes I am still bearish. I loved the spike we just had over past few days.. Spikes like that are amazing to improve the average price of the position … (KEEPING THE POSITION SIZE SAME).

  140. Nike Boy2008

    Hi MLMT,

    If i remember correctly, you may have posted something like gold should NOT cross the day high (1406 on the day you posted) if your theory is correct…however gold went past the target you mentioned and almost hit 1420 today..

    Just for learning purposes for me, at what point does your theory go wrong?

    what’s your prediction now?

  141. Gary

    What do bull markets do? That’s right they grind higher and then suddenly correct.

    What happens about every 20 days in the gold market? That’s right we get a daily cycle correction.

    Folks we don’t even have a swing high yet. If the dollar crashes in the next couple of days gold could reverse this in the blink of an eye and slice right through the highs like a hot knife through butter.

    All that happened today was that oil reversed from $100 and it took the rest of the commodity markets down with it. But this early in the oil cycle it’s highly unlikely that will be the end of the rally. Bernanke isn’t going to get off that easy.

    Stay focused on the big picture. This daily cycle has been one of the strongest yet. I expect the next one to be even stronger as the dollar collapse starts to intensify.

  142. Poly

    First you throw stones at MLMT and the second gold drop $15 it’s MLMT what is your target? What do you think now? What should my stops be?

    Even though the “stated range” has been blown and held. A little pathetic!

  143. TZ(5288)

    BAMSTER,

    >For all you option traders living in Canada. From your experience, which online broker has the best trading system, whether it be for options or stocks. I need to switch brokers.

    interactive brokers. you can open an account from anywhere in the world (and they specifically have a canada subsidiary as well)

  144. Jayhawk

    Poly-

    NEM is not up that much AH. I’m showing up like .5%

    Silver 20 MA would be a perfect backetest of the breakout. the 20 held the whole rally out of the summer

    20 MA

  145. basil

    Looking at the charts, the pullback makes the advance look much more sustainable now. From here or half a dollar lower (on silver) we should work our way higher again. To be fair, it did go a bit parabolic from 30 to 33$.

    I would be unpleasantly surprised however if we would have another steep drop from here.

    Regardless, the silver bull will not end at 33$, so even if this were a larger correction, which I doubt, I will just sit tight.

  146. Shalom Bernanke

    I pity those that take MLMT seriously, especially with regard to our trading (those that are with Gary’s program). Not only has MLMT already been wrong on this trade, he’s committed two major mistakes while doing it. If people here can’t already tell what they are, then they’re not paying attention and there is no sense in pointing them out. I don’t even care if MLMT’s trade eventually works, it’s a low percentage trade AND with lots of potential to get blown out entirely one day.

  147. basil

    Gary,

    can you provide some clues of how to recognize a C wave top? You might have already done that in your premier site posts, but I just joined this month, so I don’t know…

    Also, the D wave in 2008 went down about 60% or so and lead into an 8 year cycle low. Shouldn’t the upcoming D wave go down much less, say 30-40%?

    Thx.

  148. Ryan

    I’m a bit confused someone wrote that the dump silver took today was during AH? What is regular trading hours in PST time? I assumed spot trading regular hours are 6:30am – 1pm PST?

  149. jeff

    ryan

    go to kitco.com and click on the live gold charts. they are a few minutes behind, but on the bottom of the chart it gives you all the markets through the day. the market is only closed for 1 hour, from 5 to 6 est standard time.

  150. basil

    thanks Gary. Btw, your trip to Switzerland sounds very cool. I’m originally from the German black forest, around Freiburg, so not too far from there.
    Btw, there’s a recent German movie called ‘north face’ (Eiger that is), did you see it?

  151. blammo

    SB, I wouldn’t take MLMT’s trade but I *am* interested in using his methods to trade around my positions. As DG mentioned, he would normally have scaled out yesterday (as would I). So the information (price magnetism of 1396) is relevant to me even if the trade is not.

    Having said that, I understand the risk of losing my positions so I am hanging on (and will likely add tomorrow).

  152. jeff

    gary,

    i (you) have my broker all upset that i wont be tradeing to much. i told him i am just going to hold through hell or highwater.
    he said i should at least take proffits at 1500. i told him we were shooting for 1600, but would evaluate it as things developed. if i call him again ill probably be on hold for a while. =)

  153. Robert

    OT?:

    With a savings rate negative in the US, then how do most people still have enough money to pay Uncle Sam taxes? Or are most people just paying too little or not at all nowadays?

  154. Shalom Bernanke

    Why would you use an anonymous person’s methods to “trade around your positions”, when Gary isn’t trading around his? I’m not saying you shouldn’t, but why use an anonymous source that is all wet right from the beginning (in his approach)?

    If he’s that wrong out of the gate, what makes one think the rest of his “system” is properly based?

  155. Wes

    I haven’t gotten a buy signal, yet, and of course I may not get a meaningful one. Currently, I’m looking for the low in silver on Tuesday.

    So far, the draw down move looks incomplete, but Gary has said silver can do almost anything, and my traditional metrics may not work. But, I’ll dance with what got me here until proved wrong.

    I’m not adding yet.

  156. Gary

    I would have to agree. M has come on and made some dire predictions (and caught the attention of the more emotional traders) but none of his predictions have panned out.

    I’m guessing this volume analysis is based on support and resistance around certain levels.

    But as we all know in bull markets resistance gets taken out. Trend lines get broken only to be quickly recovered.

    At this point I think you are probably better off listening to Old Turkey.

  157. Shalom Bernanke

    That was a response to blammo. In fact, all we know about MLMT is that he doesn’t even have the most basic ideas correct. Sure, he’ll be right sometimes but that doesn’t mean it’s the approach to ensure success.

    Don’t worry, he’ll be back no matter what I say for he trades to be right (for recognition) not to make money. Some here appreciate other traders calling MLMT out so as to avoid his pitfalls. I don’t mean to offend you, but still have to call ’em like I see ’em.

  158. Robert

    Gary,

    How did you come up with the half-cycle low in stocks? Also do you know why Doc disagrees with the belief in half-cycle stock lows?

    I think it is kind of obvious that ALMOST everything in a 45-60 or whatever the cycle has now become in stocks that no matter what if it is an uptrend there will be some days (usually grouped) of profit taking, and vice versa in a down trend. To make this into a law though seems hard. For the daily cycles it is hard to argue against because they are much more severe, if you start looking for the halves things get real messy (ex., half cycle low 7 days prior to cycles end, etc.). Thoughts?

  159. LowTax

    I’ll second Gary’s and SB’s take – I’m no trader so I certainly can’t critique MLMT’s methods, nor will I try, but as an investor in the gold bull who has been with Gary for a while, who has learned to control his emotions, and who understands the status of the world’s financial situation, I worry that MLMT’s outlandish comments are pushing less experienced investors to loose their positions to short term wiggles when they should be keeping the big picture in mind. It would be a pity if this were indeed the case. If anything, I’d like to ask MLMT to tone down the theatrics.

  160. blammo

    We are all anonymous (relatively), but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn from other posters.

    I have learned from Alex for example and thanks to him my GPL position is now under water (j/k Alex).

    This isn’t about a person but about information. Some people on this board, not me, added heavily yesterday. Perhaps knowing that we would likely revisit 1396, they wouldn’t have done so.

  161. bamster

    TZ,

    Thanks, appreciate it. I had heard they had an excellant platform, but I was always hesitant to move my account only because I’ve been with RBC for 15 years and its a hassle to transfer everything. But after all the shit I’ve been going thru with them for the last 5-6 months, I really have to because it is affecting my trading and costing me money. Thanks again.

  162. Gary

    Robert,
    half cycle lows may become a thing of the past but they tended to correspond to the dollar cycle which runs about half the duration of the stock cycle. So when the dollar would bounce it would tend to drive stocks down into a mild correction at about day 20.

  163. blammo

    RBC sucks.

    I prefer TD and BMO (even better) as far as big banks are concerned. I am waiting for TOS to be incorporated into TD but currently they are not accepting new accounts (in Canada).

    Their is also QuestTrade but I have not used them.

  164. blammo

    SB and Gary, I definitely agree with your comments regarding someone’s histrionics. I’ll leave it at that.

    I haven’t sold anything and don’t plan to. Waiting to add more.

  165. Shalom Bernanke

    blammo,

    That’s true it’s not about a person, but information. The information we have on MLMT is that he not only shorts the strongest bull market there is, but averages into losers against that trend! Secondarily, although not as important, he hasn’t even been correct a majority of the time.

    More information is not better if it’s a distraction or erroneous. It’s hard enough to follow Gary strictly, but to think MLMT is going to help you trade around positions and somehow polish up Gary’s system for you is a grave mistake.

    Anyway, I’m just sharing my take on the issue. Enough said on my end.

  166. Robert

    Wouldn’t it be real nice if the market kept moving higher while PMs hit their end of the C-wave? Then once out of PMs you could put on a short. Seems to good to be true to be honest. It’s hard to see equities higher from here on out (exceeding previous highs). It’s getting etched in everyone’s mind that high oil prices are going to kill profit margins. For some reason though I do think we’ll have a higher high further down the line, maybe after oil gets hit hard after the USD bounces from it’s 3yc low.

    I’ve been watching SoS/BoW constantly over the last few months. The SPY was bought basically every single day there was ever any weakness over the past month or so. For the past two days no one stepped up and even nibbled, didn’t even throw in their typical 30-50 million, and SPY hit hard. Today SPY got bought up about 50 mil and almost immediately rose from its low at 1294. Then more BoW big buyers came in and got it up to about 100. I don’t see how we’re going to gap down tomorrow morning with the strong close.

  167. Robert

    That said, someone snuck out the back door today of the QQQQs dumping 200+ million. Also someone quickly escaped MDY SPY +300 million which you can’t see now cause it closed green, same with QQQQs. AAPL also, the leader of this market rise over the past 6 months got sold good today after someone BoWed it yesterday. I would have to say from watching the action so far it seems like we might edge a little higher or flat for a couple days but it doesn’t seem like smart money is going to be continuing to buy at these levels for the time being.

  168. Robert

    What’s important to note is that more times than not, significantly, you can never see all the BoW in the SPY I allude to because the SPY ended green.

    *my bad, qqqqs show up now, they ended red, and it’s bigger than I thought, +300. IWM also showing up as +90 or so.

    I swear you could trade and earn a good living off following SoS/BoW intraday if you know what to look for and can trade on a whim (you’re only 15-35 minutes behind the actual trade).

  169. Brian

    Bob, You probably ought not look at the after hours action then. The market apparently didn’t think much of that press release.

  170. TZ(5288)

    My silver futures increase today brings me back up to approx 7x long.

    (Leverage decreases as you get gains – simple math. So my leverage has dropped last few weeks and this bumps it back up).

    I have a stop on that additional purchase slightly below today’s lows for about a 1% net worth loss if hit. I think the low has a good chance of holding and the risk/reward seems quite favorable.

    So far so good. Up 50 cents and seems to be climbing late night.

  171. Brian

    Gary and SB, The analysis of MLMT is right on the money. If somebody comes here breaking Rule 1, it is hard to give them much credibility.

  172. Bob loves Hawaii

    Brian, the press release was pre market and rocketed the stock higher. AH trading does not interest me. I have been in NAK from 6 bucks. This is a massive finding, and will move NAK for years to come. I will continue to acquire shares. GORO needs to be in your watchlist, as well. They also reported killer drill results on their new mine.

  173. Brian

    Bob,

    I owned NAK from low levels too (recently sold). Problem is NAK is mostly valued for their copper, and Dr. Copper may be telling us that things aren’t as rosy in the economy as some would have us believe. Given the action today, all the overhead resistance should be sucked out of NAK, so now we will see what’s up.

    I own GORO presently. No disrespect for either company.

  174. Wes

    TZ,

    Speaking of simple math, you really need to distinguish between money supply and money base. The total money supply is north of $13 Trillion.

    Now look at the graph you referenced. It shows money base at just over $2 Trillion. That’s a huge difference, and one you need to appreciate before you keep confusing the two.

  175. wingman

    How do you see AGQ down $17 while silver is in the midst of a massive C wave advance, during a crazy bull market, with the dollar collapsing, oil at the front end of its cycle that’s going to keep pushing it higher, in a world that is completely out of control and not add? Answer: you don’t…especially when surprises happen to the upside in bull markets!

    So today I added April AGQ and SLV calls at the close. Did I get the bottom? No one knows since as Gary likes to remind us, “trades happen in real time” (though it’s up very nicely after hours). Nevertheless, to me it doesn’t matter, since catching exact bottoms is more luck than anything. Moreover, if you believe the story, then come May 1 you won’t be sorry you added on a day of such massive weakness.

  176. TZ(5288)

    WES,

    Yes, the monetary base is a component of the money supply.

    It was a quick post.
    The message remains the same.

    I assume you are not being critical of the overall communication that the Fed’s printing continues at a massive rate?

  177. DG

    Steven: the two DXY lows are 76.88 & 75.63

    And, separately, I love how when someone else can do something that others don’t know how to do it’s “luck.” If you don’t know how to do it how do you know it’s luck? I guess some people have been “lucky” for decades. “If I don;t know how to do it no one else can know either!” Fascinating.

  178. DG

    No one can regularly get the “exact” bottom, and no one can do it every time, of course, but it is not a random pursuit. Sticking in the word “exact” just exaggerates things so they can be more easily dismissed. Who needs “exact” to the tick? I believe I have posted enough trades here to show that even what I do, as amateur as I am, is very far from random. It’s just another aspect of trading that one can develop an expertise in.

  179. Nike Boy2008

    the gold/silver blogosphere is talking about how silver open interest for March is still very high (28,000) and that tomorrow is the last day scare some more people and that tomorrow is going to be an ugly day as well…

    Gary, have you any thoughts on this?

  180. fat boy

    I am sure we have all heard the old saying

    ‘If you sit down and try to argue logically with the village idiot be careful when people walk past they might not know the difference’

    Trouble is on the blog I’m not sure we have a choice and it is tricky to spot the difference but fun and better for the account balance when you do.

    Good luck everyone tomorrow thanks to all and low tax is right lets not do anything in a panic.

  181. Slumdog

    David: “If you’re all-in, you have to have some kind of risk control in place”

    Risk Management as I see it — Wealthy enough to buy out the position in total. There’s no way the market can move against you, like David’s position, meaningfully enough to really mess with your emotions. David’s discomforted, but that’s about it. I’m underwater on an Ag contract and my view is, it’s just gonna be more stuff. Who here hasn’t bought stuff they didn’t really want? Well, I bought it. I will own it before I give up another cent of loss to anyone else, as that anyone else is the market… So, it’s a mental power game. Me or them/you. I’ll never again allow anyone to control my reasoned decision. Ag and Au will rise dramatically; there’s no other option. So, in drops, the answer is “To hell with them.” Stand my ground, pony up whatever is required. It’s mine because I believe in it. There will be plenty of oppty later to sell it back.

  182. hiptwist

    Nike said “the blogosphere means … silver open interest for March is still very high (28,000)”

    I really can’t stand it any more. Here just some facts:

    FSI020091200 D 2009-11-24 | C 18.4550 | OI 20816
    FSI020100100 D 2009-12-28 | C 17.5430 | OI 330
    FSI020100200 D 2010-01-26 | C 16.8490 | OI 174
    FSI020100300 D 2010-02-23 | C 15.8880 | OI 22545
    FSI020100400 D 2010-03-26 | C 16.8920 | OI 263
    FSI020100500 D 2010-04-27 | C 18.1190 | OI 14581
    FSI020100600 D 2010-05-25 | C 17.7680 | OI 147
    FSI020100700 D 2010-06-25 | C 19.1100 | OI 15311
    FSI020100800 D 2010-07-27 | C 17.6220 | OI 203
    FSI020100900 D 2010-08-26 | C 18.9820 | OI 13880
    FSI020101000 D 2010-09-27 | C 21.4550 | OI 43
    FSI020101100 D 2010-10-26 | C 23.8260 | OI 425
    FSI020101200 D 2010-11-24 | C 27.5280 | OI 28268
    FSI020110100 D 2010-12-28 | C 30.2970 | OI 901
    FSI020110200 D 2011-01-26 | C 27.1230 | OI 186
    FSI020110300 D 2011-02-23 | C 33.2980 | OI 28275

    Further back it’s the same. A decrease of 50% of OI in the last days before First-Notice-Day is not uncommon. So obviously not many do their homework.

  183. Strellsy

    Morning folks! Looks like the Asian market grabbed that buying opportunity with both hands.

    Here in the UK I wasn’t able to capitalise on that overnight weakness, and this morning the LSE has gone down, so I can’t even add now.

    Was great fun watching the rollercoaster of people’s emotions though. Lot to learn from that.

    Remember: buy when there’s blood in the streets.

  184. Gary

    There is a reason silver has been so strong for the last 7 months.

    There are obviously shortages developing in the silver market. I don’t think a meager rise to $34 was enough to bring a ton of supply to the market.

    Until price rises high enough to bring in a lot more supply then any emotional sell off is either that, just an emotional profit taking event, or it’s a temporary selling event by smart money to get emotional retail traders to cough up their oz. and shares at a cheap price before price surges higher again.

  185. Gary

    I’m assuming you mean gold. The average duration of a daily cycle is 20-30 days. Today will be 19.

    We don’t even have a swing high yet and the dollar still has another week or may two before it’s due to bottom. So I’m not even convinced we’ve seen the top of this cycle yet.

    All yesterday amounted to was an emotional move driven by a hard reversal from $100 by oil.

    Nothing fundamental has changed. If the dollar keeps sinking we will see oil push through $100 and money will continue to flow into PM as protection from Ben and his printing press.

  186. T.J. Rand

    Jeff-

    I hate to be one of those ‘go look it up’ guys, but Gary has addressed cycle length and right/left translated cycles numerous times, both in his terminology docs and throughout the blog threads. If you’re a subscriber, should be an easy look up – if not I’d urge you to subscribe. Best $ you’ll spend.

  187. Razvan

    jeff why does it matter how many days we can be down?
    didn’t you see yesterday how in a couple of hours we can be down 5% or more?
    I think youre trying to figure out in your mind how low can the price go based on how many days we can be down.

  188. ALEX

    Blammo wrote:

    “I have learned from Alex for example and thanks to him my GPL position is now under water (j/k Alex).”

    I laughed man ,I did laugh when I read that πŸ™‚

    I’ll make a blind deal with you though…I will buy your shares today and you agree to buy them back on April 10th. What say thee??

    oh yeah, P.S. I said buy GPL at $2.75 anyways,Its now $3.25… what do you have arthritis?? πŸ™‚ LOL

  189. jeff

    My fault for not a clear question and simple question

    I do subscribe

    Typing from iPhone But I’ll ask a better question next time

  190. Avann

    Get somebody explain why yesterday did not constitute a swing high in gold … I read the terminology but there must be something I’m missing.
    The low of the day was 1393.29 vs the previous low of 1395.10.
    What am I missing?

  191. DG

    On the way to another successful buy signal. I hope some people took advantage of it. Next day gap downs are the signal’s worst enemy so I am even add on a pull back this morning. Question now is whether to sell at up 1%, and I am disinclined as we may well challenge the highs again.

  192. pimaCanyon

    DG,

    Great call on your SPX buy signal yesterday! Looks like this one will fall into the 85 percent category.

    Are you gonna trail a stop on your long SPY position or just take your 1% when/if it gets that high?

  193. DG

    Can someone tell me of a broker with a low margin rate and what it is? I want to negotiate a lower one with mine. Thanks!

  194. Gary

    DG,
    Depending on how much you plan on borrowing you should be able to get down to between 3-4.5%.

    Obviously the more you borrow the lower margin rate they will give you. Even if you aren’t going to use that much margin I would think you should be able to talk them down to 4.5%.

  195. DG

    My pleasure, Nike. I hope people are taking these buy signals. They come randomly and not that often, but the expectancy is off the charts positive. They don’t always work, but nothing always works. Wes, did you take a shot at this one?

  196. DG

    Thanks, Gary. I don’t usually borrow, but now I’m “stuck” with all these SPY’s on top of my AGQ. Oh well…a happy problem.

  197. DG

    Alex: o.k. I bought more GPL on weakness yesterday. Do you just sell at the C-wave top? Do you keep adding on weakness? I really don’t know how to trade these damn fool things. I’ve never bought a $3 stock before. Maybe I should wait till it gets to $6—I’ve traded $6 stocks before πŸ™‚

  198. ALEX

    DG

    Just hang on..looks great. check out GPL chart on a wkly.

    Crazy buying in GPL this morning…

    -already up over 5% and volume is over
    1.5 million @ 10 a.m. Highest recorded volume to date is just over 3 million for the entire day.Buying is giving this one a lot of strength.

    Yesterday retested the breakout, and now near all time highs again.

  199. Wes

    DG,

    I’m heavily involved in silver, but I haven’t made my “all in” move, yet. I’m looking for a silver buy signal, but so far according to the metric I’m using, I haven’t gotten any “completed” buys.

    Other than a very small June call position, I’m out of the stock market.

    I’m still looking for a silver buy by Tuesday.

  200. Strellsy

    I took the buy signal DG. The combination of your signal and Gary’s VTO trade was too good to pass up.

    Am in S&P futures from 1299. Thanks very much!

  201. Wes

    DG,

    You seem to like to pit yourself against the market and scalp profits.

    To me, the market is all about making money. In the past, the big money I’ve made has always come from concentrated positions.

    Gary’s PM techniques are my bread and butter.

  202. Jayhawk

    I’m looking at swapping some of my AXU & EXK for GPL today.

    Tell you what DG, I’ll sell you my GPL in say, 2 or three months when it’s in the 6 range. πŸ™‚

  203. Jayhawk

    Quick question-

    I want to put the MA’s that would correspond the the daily on the hourly. (Example-10,20,50,200 etc daily==what number hourly)

  204. Shalom Bernanke

    I use several firms for different reasons, but IB has the lowest rates for margin:

    http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/education/comparebrokers.php

    I use Schwab for trust accounts as they’ve got the best customer service/user friendly attention. IB has low rates (margin and commission), but is only good for pros that don’t need hand-holding b/c service leaves something to be desired. If you have to phone in alot for any reason, I am sure you’ll get frustrated at IB.

    All in all, I like IB for my day to day trading.

  205. ALEX

    Hey Jayhawk

    one thing to consider about that (since you are a chart man).

    AXU and EXK ,3 month charts and 6 month charts look like pretty nice reverse H&S forming. This area looks like the bottom of the right shoulder. Thats why I sold EXK earlier this week and got KOG, but may switch back soon…EXK could be at its low on the shoulder.

    GPL looks great, and if anything like ‘AG’ last Aug to Nov could go straight up big …but if overbought, it may run to $4 and go sideways for a bit, while oversoldish EXK and AXU may move up. Just a thought. I own all 3.

  206. DG

    Wes: I am very eclectic in my trading. I do both. I own AGQ from 128, after missing that little piece we got out for. I plan to hold the SPY’s for the new Dow high. Other times I’ll scalp something, long or short, if the rubber band gets stretched too much. I was short the euro in some size from 150 to 120 last year. China short was good to me as well. Whenever I see money on the ground I will pick it up. I agree about concentration and patience, it’s just that sometimes I don’t see anything that grabs me that much, and even then I have extra cash to pick up nickels.

  207. Aaron

    So much for expecting the dollar to break down, perhaps it will come next week.

    Support becomes resistance, so perhaps the bounce of the cycle bottom for the dollar (due in a week or two)will peak at 77…

  208. AGoldhamster

    Wes … in your boat too … Late Monday or Tuesday; until then they will try to reduce contracts standing delivery or cash (+%) settlement … ***preliminary***
    Another 10-15K on Monday and the rest might stand for delivery. Anything above 5K might provide some heat for the boyz.
    According to rumor (see SGS-site) 4500 minimum intend to stand … though maybe this is just making noise.

    And what about a margin increase, again after pits closed, in gold and silver today to help to achieve some more selling? If the HUI continues selling into the pits close (like yesterday) – I would be careful – if not that would be a positve – indicating too many contracts standing.
    Not?
    And Yes I’m new here.

  209. ALEX

    Nevermind Jayhawk…
    you said “some of my AXU and EXK”, not all of it.

    Ma’s= I use 10 ,20 and 50 depending on 1 day? 3 day? 10 day? hourly charts.

    It seems to be different with different stocks…so I just measure which M.A. fit that equity best and if it breaks down from it, I look to see if it regains it again ( if that makes any sense).

  210. ALEX

    Hey DG

    Heres something for you when trading or watching your GPL…

    look on a 6 month chart with 10 sma–it RARELY breaks its 10sma when its in a good uptrend. (It does when it corrects though). Even the huge sell off yesterday bounced off it…

    so you can either add when it goes there and bounces off it, or keep an eye on it that way.

  211. AGoldhamster

    And Brent dropping below the recent trendline (support) … 15min … – would be another warning flag for a later selloff in XAU and XAG.

    And for next week – USDCHF preparing last good buy kiss at around 93xx – just to dive south into coming weeks?
    USDJPY looking too as if it wants much lower (opposite of what most expect).

    This all – imho – points to a bigtime rally north in PMs.

    There’s only one caveat – I have WAY TOO many bulls out there.

  212. catbird

    Shalom,

    Thank you. I’ve never switched brokers but I think the time has come to go with IB now that I’m using margin.

    Stupid question that I didn’t see answered in their FAQ: When I close my account at Scottrade, is there a way I can carry over the cost basis in my shares to IB?

    In other words, what I don’t want is to have to sell my positions, cash out, and thus lose my “strong hand” status.

  213. Steven

    DG,

    I get a rate of 1.25% with Etrade. I carry a meaningful balance so this may not be available to anyone. However, I was paying 3.25% and all I did was find a rate of 1.25% on the Internet and they matched it. I think I used Interactive Brokers for the low rate. I also did the same with my commissions and they reduced those to $2.99 from $6.99.

    Hope this helps.

  214. marinho

    Gary,
    i would like to add to the SLV i got yesterday, but now I feel we are close to the end of the daily cycle and I am wondering if I should wait for a cycle low.

  215. kmisak

    Gary, earlier in today’s thread you warned against holding individual junior miners.

    Your comment today worries me a little. Since discovering HZU it has now become my #4 holding, but I have two juniors, GPR and SLX as my top two (SLW is #3).

    Here is my question: at what point is a large individual holding too large, in your book? As my #1 holding, GPR is 22% of my portfolio. I’d hate to let it go; I’ve played it since it was .58CDN, but your comment earlier…

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