How many times have we heard this one? The miners are lagging. It’s a sign that gold is topping.
Absolute baloney!
The miners aren’t lagging, they are consolidating in an extremely bullish triangle continuation pattern.
I said in the Tuesday report that the miners would probably test the upper trend line this week and maybe even breakout. We may get that test as early as tomorrow.
Folks this is now moving into the momentum stage. During this phase of the C-wave we will see gold and silver grind higher day after day. It’s not unusual to see the metals rise at a 70 or even 80% clip (7-8 days out of 10 are up days) during the final two daily cycles up in the parabolic blow off top that always unfolds as a C-wave comes to an end.
The momentum phase is just now starting.
just as you post about imminent breakout, gold and silver moving on up 😉
First!
Heh… juvenile..
Gary, is the timeline still latter half of Aprtil?
Well.. second..
Gary,
Not to beat a dead horse, but even Tim Knight’s chart of silver (on his blog today) shows the spike in 1980 to be $42. What gives?
Given that miners have been lagging silver, I am considering adding more SIL.
Mikey,
Yes I’m lying silver only made it to $42 in 1980. I just wanted to see if you would believe me.
Now do you feel better?
It went a little above $50 by the way.
Gary,
Been on the site, but cannot locate a recommendation list or positions. Is there one?
Working my way thru previous missives. Like being in college again!
SD Jack … positions are typically only mentioned at the bottom of weekend reports.
Thanks for the head’s up Avann.
All new people,
welcome to the greatest show on earth.
All K-1 filers, chill. Just study what you need to do or consult a taxidermist…
I can tell the new people about my story(snore, snore ).
3/10ish/2010 I found Gary’s site through a friend of a friend, Tim Knight’s site and my friends site both had Gary listed. I was a trader then. I lost 1/3 of my IRA retirement and the wife said I was hooked to the computer and sadistically lazy. Well shoot, She whipped me and made me feel CHEEP.
I jointed a men convent, with a few women they graciously allowed, and now I am a winner. I can tie my own shoes too!
Truth: I stopped shorting and fast trading and started SLOWLY reading and ASKING questions to the board here. From day one (1) other members helped me out. I did buy into the long position for gold and silver, trusting, from GARY, that the BULL would correct any ill-placed entry.
That last line above is critical in this writing. I openly accepted the writing of another human person, saying that I trust your knowledge and judgment. VERY HEAVY STUFF…Yes, the fine print says – invest at own risk,,,pride, etc.. I do see the logic and I DO ACCEPT THE RISK.
Am I ahead after one whole year? Yes. will I continue to make money? It’s a risk we all must accept or not accept.
Welcome all of you new people and I hope that you will grow in knowledge from Gary and this board.
Good luck to everyone, whether we are new members or are longtime followers.
Best,
Tom
Gary,
I’m not trying to challenge you or aggravate anybody… I just want to make sure that all the bolts are tightened on our rocket ship to 50. 🙂
Gary,
I thought it might have been a mistake when you said 70 to 80 percent but it seems not after your free post tonight.
Are you saying 70% from a lower area of from here at $36? From here it would be closer to $60, not $50.
Thanks
Rodney
Well said Tommy D.
Hot Rod,
The way I read it is that the final days have 60-70% day-over-day gains.
Mr. M,
Correct. A 70% clip means 7 out of 10 days will be up days.
New Folks, I was still trying to make up from losses from 2008 (Emerging Markets Eastern Europe). was making some money on Gold last year and I lit up. Then I found Gary, the best Gold/Silver guide you will find on the internet. I dumped all my other news services and trade alerts as they couldn’t compare to Gary’s insight and knowledge and patience to guide us along. Welcome all New Subs (Subscribers -took me a while to learn I was a Sub.)
Gary,
I guess you missed my question at the top, we’re still looking at the latter part of Aptil timeline… trip to Vegas the first week.. wife.. don’t want to be glued to the screen.
And, dollar index a concern?
Nothing has changed that I can see.
Excellent.
We hope it is warmer then but not too warm.
Mikey … maybe this clears it up for you … the $50 was an intraday high … it never actually closed at $50 … on the very same day it hit $50 it closed at $42.
HMY up over 8% today
Avann… Yes, that makes sense.
An intraday reversal from $50 to $42 … that would not be (will not be?) fun to endure.
Seems like every pundit on CNBC has a $50 target for silver.
So, about the K-1, if you had AGQ in an IRA, are there special tax issues? I had looked at MLPs at one point but decided against those because the can generate taxes that have to be paid even in an IRA. I have AGQ in another IRA account.
Thanks for the help.
Elaine
avven
good point, i wonder if silver will get a $8 blowoff top this c wave =)
Gary,
Just an FYI – Tim Knight gave you a shout out on his board today (mucho respecto) and posted here earlier today.
Thanks Poly for pointing out in earlier post that this is a secular bull market for gold/silver (unlike the 1980s) and hence, cycles analysis may be more effective this time for mitigating sudden collapses.
I feel better now!
Gary,
not sure if this has any weight or not but with everything going on in japan and the slow down and shut down of many companies that produce products there, will this affect the demand and supply of silver? I remembering reading that the demand (around 820+ mill) will outstrip the supply (around 700+ mill)because silver is put into everything we buy. With the shut down in companies in japan, will the supply start to increase over the demand and affect the price of silver?
Silver will follow gold into the C-wave top.
Hey Gary, looking at the $USD…isn’t that swing low on the daily? Thanks.
The only time a swing has any meaning is when it potentially forms a cycle low. It’s still too early in the cycle for this swing to signal a cycle low. The odds are this is just one of those meaningless swings that happen all the time.
Great to know. Thanks.
Bob,
I received the K-1 for AGQ that had an income component (not my gain but their income) that was more than my realized gain for the year! And I’m sure I never received a distribution as the gold/silver ETFs don’t make distributions. I sent everything to my accountant tonight and will report back tomorrow on what he says.
Yash, I think you are right. I read the AGQ prospectus wrong.
Good night all, have silver dreams.
Gary:
Any thoughts on Emerging Market indices over the next year or 2? Decoupling from the SPX? or following the SPX into another bear market?
decoupling is a myth.
It seams silver has led the way a lot in the run up we have had.
Could silver also lead out of the top first
Feeling fat again by the way
Gary,
I see your point in sticking to SIL. I owned MGN last month and sold on strength around 3.80. Two or three days later they announced a private offering. MGN fell to 2.30ish. I got lucky on that one.
Thanks Gary…Reason I asked is the liquidity pumped by central banks could find its way to commodities and high growing emerging markets than an anemic growth US economy
Mikey,
I personally remember silver reaching the 50 level in ’80.
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fat boy, looking good!
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its 5:30est and silver is up! nothing else needs to be said.
yesterday was a rather good day was it not 😉
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Gary
I could not find anything on stock market in last nights report.
What is your take on stock market now? I mean have you changed your view of EXTREMLY LEFT transalated cycle (as opposed to Doc’s cycle count and guess on IT Low). Dollar is giving up gains (as expected), crude is rallying (as expected) BUT market is showing good STRENGTH? I would appreciate your inputs as i feel we are close to the moment of truth.
No haven’t changed anything. The pattern of lower lows and lower highs is still intact.
Gary, you have mentioned b/f that you would be worried that the dollar could rally if dollar bears reached extreme bearish sentiment. My wire service(IFR/Reuters) has dollar bulls at just 9% for 1 month out(their lowest reading in years). Whose sentiment numbers do you look at?
David,
Sentiment trade has the public opinion poll at 26% bulls. This level can be maintained for months with minor releases of pressure during dead cat bounces at daily cycle lows.
Gary,
What do we need to know about the K1 issue with AGQ? Any special tax considerations we should know about. Thanks as always.
I just turn all that stuff over to my accountant, so I can’t help you on that one.
Good enough. Some of the others will be reporting back when they hear from their accountants. Thanks.
Poly,
If you are right about the couple of up days and the half cycle pause. Then $40 would be a good half cycle pause. It is a big round number and if it reaches it in 2-3 days with the strong moves you are expecting, we would be around day 10. That’s smack in the middle of half a cycle.
So what happens after the half cycle low Poly?
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Equities will outperform miners and metal prices. They have the last 2 years and they will continue to do so in any C-wave advance.
Gary,
Can silver continue to rise without gold’s support? It seems that gold gets beaten back pretty easily when it attempts to breakout.
Gallo, AGQ is a Limited Partnership. There are special tax implications compared to equities. It is very possible you could lose money in your position and get stuck with a hefty tax bill. They are not immune from tax free accounts either. I avoid MLP’s & LP’s at all costs.
Gold being as ridiculous at 1440 as silver was at 36
AGQ k-1 info
http://www.proshares.com/volatility_commodity_currency_proshares_taxation_faqs.html
I have to believe it isn’t substantial as the profits and losses should be baked into daily price.
I love this talk about the euro collapse now in the mainstream media, taking the focus off the dollar.
Interesting article on the possible comex default…
http://dont-tread-on.me/36-silver-the-banksters-waterloo/
Great Panther Silver To Sell 5M Shares At C$4.20 Each >GPR.T 03/24 08:57 AM
Bad start on my SPX short. I will cut some off quick as I love small losses (and hate moderate-sized ones). The signal works best when it starts off right away. If I sell 1/2 the SDS and we wind up dropping later, and i break even, no harm. I don;t mind missing a possible profit but do mind taking larger losses. (I wish I could figure out how to tweak the sells so they become as good as the buys).
Sorry, the link didn’t go thru on my iPhone.
Here is the info on the site and then links to this page and the FAQ where it is explained.
If someone got a K-1 – would you please share the amount per share (gain or loss) that they are hitting you with?
Thanks.
Rodney
———————————–
Since this fund is treated as a partnership for tax purposes an investor’s allocated portion of any income, gains, losses and deductions is reported on a Schedule K-1. That means investors do not receive a Form 1099-DIV. For more information, please read FAQs on Commodity and Currency ProShares Taxation.
No distributions have been made for this fund.
All ETFs are required by the IRS to distribute substantially all of their income and capital gains to shareholders at least annually. For specific tax advice, we recommend you seek advice from a qualified tax professional.
————————————–
http://www.proshares.com/funds/agq_distributions.html
http://www.proshares.com/volatility_commodity_currency_proshares_taxation_faqs.html
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“Brian said…
Great Panther Silver To Sell 5M Shares At C$4.20 Each >GPR.”
hope slw not going to do the same thing??
Sorry, the link didn’t go thru on my iPhone (and gets truncated after I click on “publish” – I swear).
Here is the info on the site and then links to this page and the FAQ where it is explained.
If someone got a K-1 – would you please share the amount per share (gain or loss) that they are hitting you with?
Thanks.
Rodney
———————————–
Since this fund is treated as a partnership for tax purposes an investor’s allocated portion of any income, gains, losses and deductions is reported on a Schedule K-1. That means investors do not receive a Form 1099-DIV. For more information, please read FAQs on Commodity and Currency ProShares Taxation.
No distributions have been made for this fund.
All ETFs are required by the IRS to distribute substantially all of their income and capital gains to shareholders at least annually. For specific tax advice, we recommend you seek advice from a qualified tax professional.
————————————–
http://www.proshares.com/funds/agq_distributions.html
Here is the key and faulty link….
I am splitting it into 3 – you have to concatenate.
(part 1) http://www.proshares.com/volatility_
(part 2) commodity_currency_proshares_
(part 3) taxation_faqs.html
For whoever is researching the K-1 tax issue. This from ETFdaily News
http://etfdailynews.com/blog/2010/10/17/the-tax-implications-of-etfs-and-etns-gld-uso-spy-slv/
Another form of commodity ETFs that are taxed at an unfriendly rate are grantor trusts which hold physical metals, like the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV). These funds are deemed as collectibles by the IRS and taxed at 28%. *On the bright side, they do not generate realized capital gains or interest income.*
I have seen so many conflicting stories on this!
Thanks for posting info on K1 issue.
ddn3f,
$40 would be a dream to hit by then, but no action.
With all my lottery plays, I’m going for gold! I’m not selling out at 300% profit to watch it hit 1,500% 2 weeks later. We picked these lottery’s because they have a “calculated” shot at a big pay day. So I will ride these to expiration or if I feel we’ve topped a daily cycle, like last cycle lottery) will try to dump at the top.
I might take 100 of 300 off the table @ $0.60 to pay for lottery. Still hoping for around $2 out of these, but wont be surprised to get $3.50, but more than prepared to lose it all.
A question to the blog.
What happens if silver leads the charge and hits our price target well in advance of a final gold parabolic move? Ie say silver hits $50, while gold is still hovering around not finished its grind to its top. Normally silver shouldn’t correct while gold grinds higher, but silver is very volatile.
Keys, I would say that price is simply a prediction or guide, nothing says it can not go much higher (or lower), we would still be following Gary’s cycle analysis.
Poly and Keys: I believe there is no cycle that will help us at the top as they only time bottoms. We’ll have some general idea as to timing because a bottom will be due in so-and-so many days, but I suspect Gary will just have us sell into the coming froth. That’s why he says he always sells early. Especially if we start blowing off cycles can become distorted. Gary, is that right?
Poly,
I meant $40 silver by the half cycle pause. That looks doable at this point if you are right with 2-3 days of strong moves. I will hold until we think the daily cycle has topped.
Haven’t sold any SDS yet, as SPX often opens at the high on a gap. Itchy trigger finger, though.
You’re right DG, fully aware that cycles work on lows.
But for this purposes, they still serve as a great guide to picking a top. If it’s late in the timing band for a cycle low and we start to spike (typical top) that would be out sign to dump.
Alex, DG and all
what r u all doing with your GPL shares?
Down more than 6% due to dilution
@ddn3f,
I know that’s what you meant. It would be very nice and certainly possible ($2.30 not much the way she moves), but was trying to saying that it wouldn’t be actionable, for me. Got to resist any temptation to cash them 🙂
I intend to hedge out my positions during the D-wave, as previously mentioned on this blog. Gary has been too bang on for me to ignore.
My scenario becomes a what happens if…silver really really takes off fast, and is so stretched beyond gold’s pace that the reasonable thing for it to do would be for it to correct or consolidate. But in this scenario gold is clearly not done in its move upwards.
If we get to that point, we get to it I guess…but I think this scenario has a probability attached to it.
archrival,
I think you might want to check the batteries in your calculator. At the recent top the S&P was up slightly more than 100% from the 09 bottom and still well below all time highs. Anyone who got caught and held through the bear market is still deeply underwater.
Miners on the other hand are up almost 300% and considerably above their 07 highs.
The general stock market isn’t even in the same ball park as mining stocks.
Archival
Oh come on now, have you been here before.?
Me I only change my picture !
Are Gary,s sums right and yours too?
anybody buy GPL today or wait?
DG (and anyone else who knows anything about K-1),
Do you know whether the K-1 tax issues would apply to positions that you have/had in an IRA?
All other tax related implications you can pretty much ignore if it occurred in an IRA, but this K-1 stuff is new to me.
Get rid of the damn tax code and the IRS!!!! For income tax, do what Andy Rooney drew on a chalk board decades ago:
A) HOW MUCH DID YOU MAKE?
B) HOW MUCH DID YOU SPEND TO MAKE A?
C) YOUR INCOME (A – B)
D) TAX: 15% OF LINE C
@Fat Boy,
WOW you got fat quickly!
What are you going to do by mid April? That will be a scary.
Well, this can’t be good for the dollar
Two years ago, George Soros said he wanted to reorganize the entire global economic system. In two short weeks, he is going to start – and no one seems to have noticed.
On April 8, a group he’s funded with $50 million is holding a major economic conference and Soros’s goal for such an event is to “establish new international rules” and “reform the currency system.”
http://www.mrc.org/bmi/commentary/2011/Unreported_Soros_Event_Aims_to_Remake_Entire_Global_Economy.html
test
test
Pima,
A Schedule K-1 is a tax information form listing a taxpayer’s share of income generated by an investment in a partnership. As one of the many benefits of an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) is the tax-deferral on all income generated in the account, you might be surprised if you receive a year-end K-1, which lists items such as taxable income and capital gains. Fortunately, in most cases, the tax-deferred status of your IRA is intact, and you do not need to report K-1 information on your IRA investments.
Source: TurboTax.
Guys and Gals, Because they are set up as Limited Partnerships, securities such as AGQ, UNG, UUP, et al, report at the end of the year on a K-1 as opposed to a 1099. Usually on the 1st page there is a list of what you report, and if not, it will be on actual K-1. There is no big mystery here. Just a different way than you may be used to receiving this information.
The facts are, this is another way to report, Interest Income, Net Short Term Capital Gains(Losses), Contracts and Straddles(these funds use these to create the leverage), and Dedeuctions for Investment Expenses.
The K-1 is really NO BIG DEAL.
As for being treated as collectibles. If they are doing that (I have no information on that yet), it would change your taxable rate on Cap Gains to a max of 28% from a minimum of 15%, although few of us hold long enough to get the minimum rate, so the taxes will be comparable.
Bottom line for all the hand wringers is, I would not let the tax tail be the wagger of the profit dog. Enjoy your gains, and give Uncle Sam your little piece of the pie.
Where are all the junior guys? Thoughts on GPL?
I have been in MLP’s for nearly a decade, I find them a great tax advantage vehicle. They are not designed to trade.
I dont like “i told you so” kind of comments but looking back at my previous comments it would appear tha we have had the bounce and a re seasonally heading into highs in May. Im expecting the miners to hea into some seasonal bearish tendencies towards the end of march, those miners that hold up well will be the prime candidates for adding to the long side ahead of teh correction in equtiies in may. Right now im only concerned with seasonal trading. I believe some of the financials and commodity related stocks (Coffee) also look like they are heading higher into May.
Poly,
Thanks! I thought that was the case. I had a couple of piddly ass K-1 numbers, I mean less than $50 each(!) for two small trades I did in my Roth IRA (which is a small account anyway). So I just ignored it figuring if I got audited I’d let the IRS guy figure it out. 🙂
Sorry I had to post “test”. I need to do that in order to receive updates on the blog comments. Nice to see silver shining again :o)
I would never trade seasonality over cycles. Seasonality never wins that battle.
Fatguy, the link doesn’t work.
What makes Soros the economic god. He needs to be allowed to change things if they’re going to be changed. Maybe he will be since some say he’s the elite puppet master whose pulling the strings of presidents (and so-called presidents.)
Gary,
I’ve been charting along with you trying to learn as much as I can about cycle analysis. Are there any books or resources out there that you recommend to get a better understanding of this topic?
Hui is testing the trendline I mentioned in this post today. I expect we will see a breakout either tomorrow or early next week.
Maybe this is just gap filling
DG, feeling better?
PST,
I really don’t know of any. The best I can do is tell you to study the terminology document.
Steven
How much more gain showed on k-1 than your actual gain?
someone also mentioned that daily prices will be baked with gain/loss. I think thats why over period of entire year its not very high gain per share. 2009 has 21 dollars per share. but since we hold only in profitable period of year, its possible in those months agq partnetship also shows large gain and so tax bill will increase. I still get point that tax bill will be less than hefty gains made but one has to remember there is going to be more tax that you would have paid on actual trading gains.
Will do. Thanks.
I guess the best way to learn is to follow along with you and just keep practicing.
Gary,
I apologise in advance for any newbie comments, however, isnt seasonal analysis really cyclical analysis on a shorter time frame?
The cycles that you speak of and the knowledge you have acquired over the years regarding cyclical analysis, do you have any “bibles” that you refer consistenly refer to?
My CPA basically said to ignore the K-1 for AGQ related to the IRA.
She was, however, very careful to check that all the gains reported on the K-1 for the personal account matched the short term capital gains already reported on Schedule D.
A relief since the tax return was completely finished!
I have my doubts the stock market will be able to get back above the 50 DMA.
PST,
There is very little info out there…I tried searching a while back.
Dilution of GPL is disappointing, but as I see it, the setback is only temporary, and the damage is done.
I’m holding onto all of my shares.
Merde
Le Fou
Cycles really have nothing to do with seasonal tendencies. Cycles are about human emotions. Those tend to have set timing bands where they run out of steam.
That happens regardless of seasonality.
By the way, anyone know why gold/silver often sees selling pressure everyday around 11:00 EST. I know that you sometimes see it around 1:00-1:30 because of the Comex close, but am unsure why my limit orders always get hit around 11:00.
My AGQ K-1 only has entries in the Short Term Capital Gains box and the Other Income box (attributed to the contracts and straddles to create the leverage)
The Master Limited Partnerships (MLP’s) are income generators intended for long term holdings as BLH mentioned as opposed to what we do with AGQ. In that case BLH would have the box for Long Term Capital Gains filled in, along with any other gains or losses.
On my form AGQ does NOT have the collectibles box filled in, so AGQ IS NOT treated as a collectible. It is taxed at normal Cap Gains rates.
Gary
thanks for the comments. Sounds like i should start reading up on cycles, it took me probably 1 year to realise that technicals were geared against the public players, even proprietary indicators have limited functionality. Thats when i got into seasonal tendencies with decent success. However im becoming more interested in cycle analysis. Would the “terminology document” be available to subscribers?
PST,
it could be because europe closes around 11 or 11:30.
New York,
I just picked up some GPL. Since we are early enough in daily cycle and GPL has been a leader since the IT low, I like the risk reward here. Will add more as if rises from here or cut it if it closes below the 10d MA.
*But obviously you need to make your own decisions
Yes it is.
Gary,
I noticed HUI poking slightly above the TL today too.
Note that GDX, whose chart is very close to the same chart as HUI, broke clearly above that TL today.
Thank you to everyone who clarified the K-1 question. I appreciate the help.
Best,
Elaine
Brian,
Can you let us know what the K-1 taxable amounts are per share so you don’t have to give us the total amount?
Just take the total and divide.
Or, can you let us know how substantial it was?
Thanks a lot.
Rodney
Dollar dump.
And thanks for the K1 advice/clarification.
Pressur
Sign up, go through the old archives and old blogs .
Nugets are everywhere
Only a buck from all time highs!
Once free it ain’t looking back.
Gary
What would be the next logical place for silver to either correct / take a breather? Would this be the half-cycle and, if so, when would that happen? If not then any other thoughts on when we could expect a breather or correction?
Thanks
There are hundreds of non mining equities that have blown away the best gold stock over the last 24 months. You changed the parameters with your silly buy and hold arguement. Buy and hold has been dead for years.
Go shiny Gold. go!!
silver futures over $38
gold new all time high $1448.60
🙂
BREAK OUT!!!!!!!
Strap in tight!
Gary,
One more question. I understand that the cycles are driving this move. However, do you think there is also perhaps a short squeeze going on at the same time and is that what usually happens during this last phase of the C wave?
Maybe at $40 unless it happens with still a lot of time left in the daily cycle then I would expect it to trade through it.
Thanks. What do you consider alot of time left in the daily cycle?
Hotrod, Anybody can easily figure their rate. Dollars out minus dollars in divided by number of shares. Your tax rate on the gain will generally be the highest Sam has due to the short term nature of this holding. This can be anywhere from 0 to 35% depending on your other total income.
Seems like the cycle is now in full swing. Yesterday they were building positions, TODAY they are panicking for positions.
Do people on this board recommend having significant exposure to physical gold and silver in addition to paper? Obviously not as liquid during corrections but does provide some peace of mind in a worst case scenario.
archrival, Did you just come over here to pick a fight?
Brian,
So for AGQ, we don’t get a statement from the Brokerage in January for Tax filing – we wait until we get the K-1?
I’m more confused after your last post.
I thought the K-1 was a form in addition to the normal sales reporting.
Thanks.
Yash, and all. I just opened my Proshare K-1 (received yesterday)and my short term gains from last year matched my Schwab Cap gain.
So a wash for me. There was no distibutions.
Look at box L, cap contributed plus cap gains match the withdrawls.
On the same chart posted by Gary I see an IHS which is just reaching the neck line. It is about to breakout!
Does anyone else sees what I see?
Whom ever mentioned AG, what a rocket:)Thx
Brian, I’m a lover not a fighter!
For the record, I am in agreement with Gary with gold/silver.
My disagreement comes with the arguement that miners and pm’s are the only place to be. I have traded both over the last 2 years and have had much greater success with tech stocks than miners.
As for the general market I think it will rise with gold in this C wave. I’m sure there will be a point when they decouple, just not now, imo. This is coming from someone that remains extremely bearish this economy and eventually the stock market again, but not until QE 2 has run its course.
Hope you guys welcome alternate views, if not say the word, I’ll disappear. I’m not a beanie, et al.
GL
PST-
You’ll get mixed opinions on holding physical. I personally do, but there are a lot of smart people on this board who do not.
You should only see a difference from your K-1 and your 1009 from your brokerif;
you did not sell and the ETF had a distribution.
Divvies should be picked up on your broker statement, as well.
Box L should show your delta and your tax obligation.
Jeff,
Might just do that, thanks for the heads up
Options question for the Gary and the board:
I’m holding SLW June calls at various strikes DITM ($35, $36, $40). I’m up 75-200% + on them. Since it’s SLW, liquidity is good, so getting out at a decent price is not an issue.
In light of the anticipated blast off, should I stay with these positions, or roll all or part of them up to a higher strike at the same expiration? I could also roll them out to September, but I’m not sure there would be an advantage to that since the C-wave should be over long before. With the wind at our backs, I’m thinking now would be the time to add a bit more risk.
Ugh. This tax stuff bums me out…Makes my eyes bleed trying to figure out all this crap.
I was looking at that I H&S too Micheal. Not sure where to put a neckline and I would look at the Nov/Dec zone as the Rt shoulder. Regardless, once it breaks up that sucker should run hard.
Hotrod, You are correct. The K-1 is a separate report. Most similar to a 1099.
My broker does not include my Cap Gains from these securities on their 1099. Hence the K-1
Bob Loves,
I thought if the K-1 showed anything, which mine did not, that this would be what is taxable.
Now, I am below 59.5 so this maybe
something I will need to know when I reach that mark and have to declare cap-gains… I am sorry if I said this is a non-issue. I guess age may be a factor. I hear it stinks getting older…
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Archrival: Alternate views are always welcomed here. Just…
1. Offer the alternate view with respect for Gary/us
2. Give reasons for it and be precise
3. Don’t repeat your position over and over
4. Have a reason for posting Shouting (“We’re goona zoom!” is not a reason for posting)
The only guys who get run out of town are the obnoxious ones or who show up to gloat every time they are right for five minutes. Fair enough? [I have to say even the name “Archrival” sounds like you are looking to pick a fight.]
I’m giddy. Is it wrong that I want this C wave to be over with already so that I can get in at the bottom of the A this time, instead of half way through the C?
Tudor-
I have June 35s and 40s as well…and this morning had an order loaded to add more but just couldn’t push ‘enter’. I was looking at June 45s…wish I’d done it!
In my view, higher strikes might be OK, but I’m fairly conservative, so I would try to stay lower than where I expect the move to end…plus i’d try to sell while the price is still rising. September might just cost you more.
Jayhawk,
Yes I also see the left shoulder formed in Nov-Dec and the right is forming in March. About 50 point from head to the neck. Target of 50 points from $580?
Tudor, I do that alot. But I do it to take money off the table.
For me, I am taking money off the table NLT Tuesday and set a buy stop on my next trade and walk it down into the daily cycle low. Rolling April to May. September puts you in the teeth of the D wave, I imagine.
Remember pressure comes off the shorts by Tuesday, which ties beautifully to the half cycle high.
Anyway my thoughts.
Archrival,
According to the screener on FINVIZ.com number 4 performer of all 6762 issues they track was AG, GPL was #6 and AGQ was a respectable #18 with 325% gain. As a holder of AGQ (sold all of my miners and moved everything into AGQ some months ago) I would like to know how I could have done better holding any other basket of equities. Have YOU done better than 325% over the last 12 months?
DG, thanks for the ground rules.
Don’t think I have abused yet.
I’m from St. Louis, maybe that helps you understand the name.
Go GOLD and GL!
Gary
hope this is not too stupid a question but will you be tempted to sell a small amount of your non-core position when silver takes a breather at $40? You could then get back in at say $36/37 for the next ride up. I’m not suggesting a large trade – perhaps 10-15% of the overall funds invested.
Thanks for the sub service as well!
Bob, Tuesday is too soon for a mid cycle high if this is to be RT.
archrival, No problem for me, but realize you are on a Precious Metal blog. Arguing for tech stocks will not matter to many here. We are for the most part quite comfortable with what we are doing.
You could do yourself a favor, and pick just about any one of these junior miners from their 2008 low, and I think you will find few tech stock that beat their returns.
Leo, my first purchase off the bottom was BIDU around $150. Yes I was about $50 late to the party but it now trades at $130 after a 10/1 split. I still hold 25% of those shares.
Tudor, I am still holding SLW June 30’s bought at the Jan low. Currently up 300%. Last cycle a similar play did 1500%. I will hold them until Gary says we should exit. I did add June 41’s at the daily cycle low, but I hate to buy calls into strength.
It is OK if I am early, and if it runs, I will already trigger my May buy stops. The COMEX delivery is Tuesday, and the week following a big run up to delivery sells off.
Something to keep in mind.
Brian, Got it! I’ll keep my tech thoughts to myself. I hold UXG, what juniors do you like?
Dollar is barfing up all of yesterday’s gains. So glad I’m on the PM train. Primarily in AGQ with some ITM options on SLW and SLV (no SIL or juniors) to get 1.4x leverage (no margin). I plan on unloading the options (or at least selling calls against them to lock in gains) as the risk/reward ratio increases towards the end of the next daily cycle.
DG, imagine if you’d put those SDS shares in AGQ instead!
Archrival, that is an interesting tidbit, I made good money on BIDU as well (even though not as much as you did) and I could share with you my successes about the same time with F and AAPL etc.
The question was though, how did your entire portfolio do over the last year? And what equity basket could have beaten AGQ?
Tudor,
I’m in similar options as you – May or June at the latest. I think you’ll just take on unnecessary premium rolling out to September. If things change (dollar 3 year cycle low gets pushed out to August) I may consider rolling out to the fall months…
Mike
archrival, I have AG, AXU, CDE, EXK, FVITF, GPL, HL, MVG, PZG, SLW, and SVM for silver plays. I spread it out in case of a blowup, which I have had happen. A few jr golds like AAU, GORO, NGD, but mostly silver miners.
Leo, I have not outperformed AGQ over the last year. But, I have outperformed it over the last 2 years.
My guess the only basket that could have beaten AGQ would have been a 3X silver vehicle.
Thanks for the thoughts gang.
Brian, nice play. Here’s hoping for a repeat. I also had a small (3 contracts) position of Jun 31’s that I’ve held from $4 to $15+. The delta was at .90. I just rolled the entire position up to Jun 45’s. I think I might roll up about a third of my DITM positions and let the majority of them ride.
Mike: I am almost never 100% invested and always have some cash or at least margin around (for when things like Japan happen—I did well buying into that). If I don’t own more AGQ it’s not due to lack of funds, so other trades have no effect on my PM holdings. It’s not “either/or.”
I will not pull the trigger until …
http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/i-will-not-pull-the-trigger-until-%E2%80%A6-11603
Ok… I can’t wait for Larry’s followers to jump on Gary Silver’s moving C-Train soon. I think it’s already happening.
Archrival, I thought I guess, you are one of those people who enjoy trading for its own sake, as a hobby. I am too lazy for that, I prefer reading books and studying dead languages.
The beauty of following Gary is that I do not have to trade. Just read my daily updates and occasionally adjust my position(s).
There are many ways to skin this cat and I prefer the least labor-intensive one.
GOLD at a new high! This is just the beginning of the ride!!
I have a friend who has been accumulating silver now for over 3 years. He was not aware of the ABCD pattern, or the cycles the dollar follows. He does not doubt that silver could go to $50 or higher, but does not want to sell his physical silver either. Apparently, he has to pay 6% Kentucky sales tax on it, plus the other tax consequences. Any suggestions on how to best hedge his physical holdings once silver hits $50? I thought about puts, but I suspect the volatility at that time could work against him.
if hamster posts, i’m sure you will see he has a large amount of physical silver. i personally have 1000 oz and going to keep through the D wave.
That’s prudent and understandable DG. I’m sure you slept a lot better than most here during the last daily cycle as well. Though on the flip side days like the last two are really nice when you are 😉
Tudor, I am not a skillful trader like a lot of folks here. For options, I try to buy the intermediate low, and let them run the full cycle. Has been a very profitable strategy.
It sounds like Archrival is just a very poor trader of miners. What have I said time after time?
Hold don’t trade.
The only time to trade is at intermediate tops and bottoms and even then I only do it with part of my account. I always keep a core position.
Dude: Just have him short the appropriate amount of SLV or AGQ. He’ll make a dollar on the short for every dollar he loses on his physical (he might want to check the tax consequences, though…)
Archrival,
I think you miss the point. We don’t buy and hold gold or silver.
We trade gold and silver derivatives. You would be very hard pressed to identify the stocks that could compete with the returns generated from this.
archrival,
THE WORD.
hokas pokas.
No offense intended.
I for one just read Gary’s comments on this blog. I do not read this blog to get alternate views from other forum members. I am here for a specific reason. Not to chat, but I have done that; so I understand. I know you think that no harm is done, but it can get confusing; and we do not want to be lead astray.
Gary is one of the most confident & calm trader i have ever seen..I guess he knows what he is doing.
Hot Rod,
Thanks a lot for the Power Shares link. I see that I can actually download my K-1 data into Turbo Tax and let TurboTax figure out the tax due. Since TurboTax keeps a running tally of the total tax due I will immediately be able to see the impact of the AGQ K-1 once I import it – very cool!
I will report back my experience once I have done this – maybe this weekend.
Thanks again!
Mike and Tudor, I am not rolling up and out because it is apparent the 3 year dollar cycle is unfolding as Gary has been preparing us for years. Seems silly to me to buy more time premium and give up DITM options.
archrival, THE WORD!$ Ha! Ha!
Hokas pokas, even!!$$
I only read this blog because Gary posts in it. I have been with him long enough to know that there is a very small chance that I am ever going to find better advice anywhere, etc. I have stopped looking for better alternatives at this point.
I would rather not be tempted by any alternatives that might lead me astray. Sorry if I am coming on too strong. No offense itended. Cheers.
Gary – just a word: Thanks.
Subscription: Best investment money I ever spent.
401K funds (FKRCX & INIVX, only two worth a damn I have access to) are green and getting greener, already outperforming the S&P by >6% in only a month. Thanks for constantly reminding that this bull will correct any entry timing errors; so far so good.
Now let’s just sit back and have fun watching the fireworks for the next month or two, eh? Wish I could enjoy the view from the Matterhorn peak someday. My Swiss-born co-worker says it’s spectacular. Found an interesting story about climbing it: http://www.derwanderer.net/2008/07/27/the-matterhorn/
NPC,
I learned my lesson a long time ago. I don’t make stupid mistakes like that anymore.
What makes you think silver will even come close to trading back down to $36?
What if it trades right through $40 and I lost my position? Where would I be then?
Andrew,
Thanks for the link.
Larry said he wants two consecutive closes above 1453 before he will jump on the bandwagon. So if we get those, all of his subs will jump too. That ought to give gold a swift kick higher. 🙂
(Let’s hope for 1453 to get taken out soon!)
archrival, The part you did not ask about are the big alpha generators. From the intermediate low we are near 80% gains on AGQ. At the low I also buy small option positions on the silver miners. The junior miners themselves are considered my core.
Another Gary here…
Regarding AGQ’s partnership structure and K-1, it would be unwise to ignore the tax consequences.
As an ‘owner’ in the partnership, you will have income or losses associated with your share in units of the partnership that are in addition to those that occur by buying at one price and selling at another.
In my case, my share of the partnership income was offset by my share of the partnership expense which was added to the cost basis. So, income was higher but so was cost basis of the shares I sold. It ended up pretty close to a ‘wash’.
However, if I didn’t sell AGQ at all last year, I would have had to recognize the additional ‘phantom’ income and pay taxes on that, while waiting to sell the shares to get the corresponding benefit in cost basis.
So, if you hold AGQ versus trade AGQ shorter-term, and your tax bracket changes a lot from year-to-year, you may want to think about how this investment vehicle impacts your gains.
I hope this is helpful.
nitro,
me too, i will hold my physical position through the D wave.
the reason for me to do this is because i don’t regard it as an investment, but as a getaway ticket to start over if/when things get ugly, and i really hope it doesn’t get that far.
Brian said: “Mike and Tudor, I am not rolling up and out because it is apparent the 3 year dollar cycle is unfolding as Gary has been preparing us for years. Seems silly to me to buy more time premium and give up DITM options.”
That certainly is a reasonable, defendable approach. I also bought at or near the intermediate lows and have decided to let most of the position run. But based on Gary’s work and conviction that the momentum is about to take off, I’m going to back out a third and use it to increase my leverage a little. I’ll still be ITM by a few strikes. Same expiration (June), though.
New Gary,
Please consider changing your display name so that others may distinguish between Gary Savage and yourself. I know a lot of people search for Gary Savage’s posts.
Keep in mind that isn’t a third of my entire portfolio, Lord no! That’s just one third of my DITM SLW positions.
Yeah, there’s only room for one Gary here. Sorry Gary2. You need a name change.
HMY adding another 8% today
Alrighty, I surrender with my baloney argument 🙂 The low volume all-clear signal has been sounded. Demark indicators for Dollar exhaustion on the DAILY and WEEKLY are down at 74.90. MONTHLY is 72.5. At 72.5, I would look to scale out of your gold/silver trades. For sure, the DXY could overshoot to new lows – anything can happen – but the down dollar trend is your friend until it isn’t as people witnessed in the early 80’s and mid 1995. Just don’t get greedy – follow Gary and you will be OK 🙂
MONTHLY SPX Demark needs a higher high either in April or May to record a 1-4 month Sell Setup – good from June to September.
Tudor, I understood about your position size. I guess the only way I would add options is if the correction between the 2nd and 3rd daily cycle were sharp enough to give me great prices. I have had enough bad experiences with options. I only want to buy them when prices are falling sharply. Definitely not when they are rising sharply. The AGQ covers me during these periods well enough.
No matter what, I wish you the best with the ones you buy!
So we can take coolkevs partially off the top caller list! Excellent. Buy a subscription coolkevs and start making some cash.
I didn’t know that Google Blogger would even allow TWO Gary’s? This is going to be a real hassle if we have to try and figure out which Gary is the real one..
Gary 2, change your name, but don’t call yourself Duuuuuude.
Guys,
Note that Gary who runs this blog has an avatar of him climbing a golden wall.
The new Gary does not have an avatar pic.
Easy to tell the diff.
Pima,
You can’t tell when the comments are emailed to you. There is no avatar on the emails.
Thanks Gary
I was just wondering whether you would want to risk a small amount in top calling and bottom picking. The compounding effect of that can be huge. But it ain”t easy of course. might just be better to do the old turkey.
I’ve just added a few more trading shares, SLV Apr 33’s.
Pima,
How do you get comments emailed to you? I need to set that up, because when I am out of the country next month for 6 weeks, I am not sure I will get tweets as I can’t get text messages on sms, only email comes in. Thanks in advance.
nice little wiggle now for those wanting to add
at ease,
don’t know anything about getting comments emailed, you’ll have to ask someone else here.
didn’t know that about the email and the pix, so yeah, a different name for the new Gary would be a good idea.
DMA,
I’m like you. I only frequent the comment section to hear what Gary is saying. Otherwise, I stick to my own work and (no offense) the rest is just noise.
Peace
ddn3f, I guess I needed to ask you, how do you get comments emailed to you as I won’t be able to get text messages (tweet) out of the country. Thanks
anybody concerned yet about the depth of the pullback from the new highs that were made earlier today? Seems way too early to be moving into a daily cycle low UNLESS the cycle is very left translated and that would not bode well for new highs ahead.
What is cause of such sudden drops? Lost 3% in a few minutes. Is someone unloading a lot of silver?
Everyone,
When you hit “preview your comments” there is a check box that you can check to get comments emailed to you. Try it.
Thanks ddn3f, I will try that. Hate the idea of being away from the computer with access all the time during this c wave.
just the bull trying to shake some people off, i guess
great getting comments now on my blackberry. Thanks ddn3f
Everyone do yourselves a favor and keep your eyes on the USD, and ignore the short term manipulations in gold and silver. You will do well and keep your sanity.
I intend to buy puts against my physical. Most likely at the money, not sure on the time length. The purpose is to create a normal drawdown out of a D-wave, instead of riding it the full way. If gold rockets higher due to some strange and weird moment, I am still long. If the premium on gold ever gets too high, I am still long physical. I intend on buying slv and gld puts.
I thought about shorting slv or gld instead, but didn’t like the idea of being effectively out of the market.
Also, if you buy puts in a tax-deferred account, you can delay the tax man since you don’t actually sell your physical.
OMG, my phone bill will be sky high while I am away, can see that now if I get onto web blackberry browsing comments. LOL
Anyone think this is a normal pre-1:30 Fix beatdown…and a good time to add?
For those getting the emails from the blog … I tried it for a couple of days. It gets very annoying after a while.
Especially on those 700+ post days.
Will never do that again …
Eammon, silver is just very volitile and this point. Compound that with a 2X like AGQ and you can really get some serious volitility. Just try to ignore the hourly wiggles. Just read the nightly updates is the current Rx for dealing with volitility, etc.
This NUGT etf will be a dandy when more people come in and the volume increases. Still new, but it’s making progress.
I figure if miners should outperform the metals then this would be a good one b/c it doesn’t have individual company risk, but still has 2x the move of the XAU.
XAU today broke through a downtrend gong back to Dec.
Thanks DailyMovingAvg50/200
Yes it works! Thankyou!
I’m adding more AGQ. We’re only back to yesterday’s intraday high.
Yeah these moves are not uncommon for Silver, can’t have parabolic spikes only 🙂
Caution you have the MERC closing coming, SO often we see a plunge into that closing.
Sorry TJ Rand actually pointed that out. Not unusual to see the drop and then huge reversal on globex
Poly,
This will be good for us. If gold closes in COMEX down and then goes up. We get a Vuvvy/Veronica buy signal. Those are always good.
Loving this action… will be on the look out to add in Globex. 1420 should hold
Poly- NP – just nibbled at SLW June 44s
Expirations on Monday for gold and silver.The bullion banks almost always will try to lower the prices around expirations time–happens almost every month, just like clockwork
oops – did I speak too soon?? haha!
Veronica,
You around today? Does your system use hourly charts to derive its signals, or just daily charts?
Are you watching the action today?
Biggest red hourly bar since 2/24.
maybe just one of those brief buying opportunities Gary talks about during the steady grind up?
Folks you’ve got to quit watching the intra day wiggles. You’re going to drive yourself nuts.
The day isn’t even over yet. Have you even considered the possibility that big money is trying to drive this down and get you to cough up your shares to them ahead of another big push up?
Added a couple GC and SLW june 41. It can turn anytime now! 🙂
We banged our heads against the bollinger band…
Woops, Put Coolkevs back on the top caller list ASAP.
DMA,
“The rest is just noise”
You’re entitled to your opinion but that “noise” has made a number of people on this blog some nice coin. There are some very smart people who are willing to share their considerable knowledge here.
Do we hit $219.00 on AGQ soon? Keeps getting lower lows and lower highs by the minute.
Oh yeah, GO BUCKS!! March madness…
Buy the f’in dips as they say, big Ben will save the day.
wheres Mouldyhamsandwich when you need him. We want an update on this price action…
Looking at my mix, it looks like the big guys were going after the metals.
Butler has a lock on the tournament.
There is a new physical silver bullion ETF (similiar to Sprott) with the symbol of SIVR. The trustee is Bank of NY Mellon.
I’m only looking at gld, agq, and nugt, they hit their upper channel lines almost perfectly, and bounced back off them with gusto, not the end of the world. Oil tanked also which is another reason
Just to let you all know if you do follow comments in emails, New Gary, does just list as Gary, so it would help us all if New Gary can change his name on this list for clarification purposes on the blog comments. Thank you in advance New Gary, much appreciated.
Can anyone give me suggestions for real-time quotes. Daily Finance is about 2-4 minutes behind most of the time.
DailyMovingAvg50/200, download ThinkorSwim app – it is free and will change your life:
https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/displayPage.tos;jsessionid=67F2142791563AAC2EE988DDEABD438C?webpage=main&layout=homeLayout
“at ease said…
Thanks ddn3f, I will try that. Hate the idea of being away from the computer with access all the time during this c wave.”
at ease, you cannot take the laptop with you??
sell me your metals
come to daddy
i’m buying friday afternoon
this is a reversal candlestick…are we headed down again? how do we know when the d-wave is here
“how do we know when the d-wave is here”
You don’t! That’s what stops are for. They hit, we jump, they don’t we won!
troll, if stops get hit at this point, PMs are probably head toward d-wave, I guess.
Folks C-waves don’t end with a whimper. They end in an orgy of speculation.
We aren’t even close yet. Gold sentiment is still dead neutral.
“orgy of speculation. “
Settle down Savage 🙂
Ok Im no longer wishing for a dip, Im not allowed to add anymore. Now we just wait…
This was just the first attempt for the HUI to break out of the triangle.
If not tomorrow certainly by next week.
GPL may get the axe from me today. No time to fart around with goofy miners that do that stuff in the middle of a huge run.
poly / at ease
thanks for your concern re my weight
fyi i get fat when i am at all time high after a swing low
I get thin during corrections hence the skeleton.
when i don’t know where I am I am up down and up boy
cheers
If the PM Markets had sound, it would sound like air leaking out of a tire…..pshssssssssssssss. Looking forward to using what bit of cash I have left to buy here before the close.
Yes it didn’t feel too good with such a sudden drop but I put my emotions aside and added to SLW. On a side note, any thoughts with gold lagging?
Re: GPL, I agree Jayhawk. It is investor-unfriendly and is an example of why Gary recommends SIL over individual miners. I am still up on this trade though so will give it a bit more room.
Gary 2
The info you posted on AGQ/K-1 was very helpful. Thank you!
Just a little correction after awesome last few days. I learned from Gary on how to stay put and not trade on every wiggle. It has given me great rewards, so hang tight.
Since we are all telling stories, I will share mine. I wont give exact numbers, but thru the collapse from 2k6 thru 2k8 I lost 100% of my cash, and since I was leveraged, I actually lost more than I had. So what did I do, remortgaged some property I owned, and tossed that into the market, lost 50 to 60% of that too. Well, started looking at gold because I was tired of the whooping I was taking, and landed on this blog. I started investing in Gold in late ’08 as gold was just below 1000$ .. Gary was telling everyone that we were headed much higher, and I still remmeber as we broke 1000$ , and pulled back, Gary taking loads of abuse .. and handling it with the class he still shows.
Well, long story short, Feb 28th 2011, after 3 long and difficult years, I can say I am even, and since I can say I am actually in the green. So, to all newbies and short-timers I would tell you to be patient and stay the course.
It seems to me that Gary has his finger firmly on the pulse of the markets. I still spend time searching for something that isn’t factored in, some X-factor that will blow this plan. I have not yet found it, thankfully, as I am all in. I found an interesting video in my search….the ‘silver warcry!!’ to help pass the time waiting for the big breakouts to happen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FywT-txGuss
Great story, Peter.
I lost most of my money in China in 2008.
Since I joined Gary, I sleep better at night. Its that simple
JayHawk &
I am thinking the same thing on GPL. They just finished an offering to pay back debt. Ok fine. But this seemed like a middle of the night “Mayflower” move. Just does not smell right. Been thinking all day, usually when I do not pull the trigger, I regret it. To be fair it has been one of the winners and management has moved forward quickly. But as you stated, do we have time here for this?
If there was even a hint of positive sentiment in Gold brewing, this action just killed it 🙂
Eamonn .. thats really whats sad about what happened, the working folk took a beating and the upper class benefitted. I dont know if anyone saw the video, and I am sure it comes as no surprise, but Gary Shilling is talking about the two-tier recovery, and thats exactly what has, and will continue to take place. The rich will get fatter, and the rest will fight over the scraps.
Take your seat at that table quick … thats my piece of advice.
Jayhawk/Kevin,
There’s never a good time to do a share offering.
These companies all do it, though, and if you’re going to do it, you want to do it when the stock is roaring.
Think about it: would you rather they raise $5M when the stock is at $4.00 or $2.00?
Having seen plenty of companies forced to dilute during the 2008 meltdown just to survive, I can tell you the market punishes that much more savagely.
You may also notice that GPL was up 10% yesterday. It still hasn’t given back yesterday’s gains on this news.
If you want to sell GPL because you think it’s a momentum stock whose momentum is diminishing, go ahead. But if you’re going to play the juniors, this is something you’re going to have to get used to.
uup down, slv down, gld down – like the mogambo guru sez “whee! this investing stuff is fun” Somebody just bought 100000 Jun 21 Puts on UUP for .16 – I wish them the best! 4% to DXY 72.5 – current level of UUP is 21.71 => -4% gives 20.84 – if they hold to expiration and DXY at 72.5 that day, they will break even – hurray! 🙂 🙂
Jayhawk, This is usually a good time to add to a top performer. The shorts know they can make big money on an announcement like that. People that know the company take advantage too. If all is well with the company today’s action will be recovered quickly. If it is not, then that is the signpost.
Steady…steady…steady…steady.
Alright. Time to go find something else to hold my attention…
Silver margins going up by about 5% at the close of fri.
It isn’t much and won’t affect the bull, but that and the rollover of gold contract (and the expiration of the current silver delivery month contract) in the next week or so will likely show downward pressure.
The people who are short and want this thing contained or lower will be more forceful in here.
I can’t believe it! Are we going to see a reversal bar at the beginning of the parabola??
It is important for the fed and banks manipulating the metals (who gary doesn’t believe in) to contain and drop gold and silver as much as possible in the next week.
The hit started after gold broke to a new high and sucked in about 10-20k contracts to buy earlier today. Those people have been liquidated, taught a lesson (another reason for such action), and the pressure should continue now.
The sky is falling. SELL! SELL! SELL!!
😉
I’m still heavily long and not changing my positions. My stops are mostly at the “panic japan” lows of last week and should hold. (People who bought higher than that might get some upset now however.)
And of course it is always possible the manipulation wont be very successful and they get overrun to higher levels (which is also why I am staying put.)
David,
Valid points. I do understand. To your point it maybe effective. Selling some at the time in order to be well capitalized. I guess two things. One a had a bit of emotion as I did not want this now for obvious reasons. Thanks for getting me back in check.
But one of my criteria for juniors is management…how long have they been at the game, how often do they meet their commitments, and how do they treat shareholders. I read the release on their website, in my opinion it just seemed a bit sneaky. Maybe I was expecting two much from this group. David you make valid points, thank you for that
TZ, What is your opinion of the mini gold and silver futures contracts?
Sorry my spelling is horrible, sorry about that. On a cheap phone in brazil. Going to go have a beer
Globex pushback…extremely natural.
You gotta hate the CME Group. Its a shitty business they are doing.
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv11-103.pdf
And again a myriad of afternoon hobby chartist will call a top in silver cause there crayons said so.
I guess it will hurt the Pm’s at least for the next couple of days. So run is over for now maybe some pullback buying for those with powder left!
I don’t like this kind of action … I’m still all in but I converted my HZU back to CEF … yet again.
It worked well for me last time.
I’ll wait to see how this unfolds before I jump back on the HZU wagon again.
Yikes!
Double yikes!
>TZ, What is your opinion of the mini gold and silver futures contrcts?
The liquidity is in the main contracts, but you could do much worse than the mini’s. (Note there are now also MICRO gold and silver futures contracts I believe. I saw a notice on one of the exchanges.)
The mini’s have wider spreads, less volume, more slippage on a stop, but not horribly so.
And they also trade at slightly less number of “24 hours” than the regular contracts. (Regulars open at 6pm each day, the minis at 7:15pm I believe. No idea on the micros).
Like I said, prob still better than AGQ cause you get almost 24hr trading and you still get the favorable tax treatment (verify).
I guess trade the mini’s till you get enough money to trade the main ones. (Obviously anything has risk. This is not advice. And don’t do anything you dont’ understand fully.)
Gary,
What’s your opinion of some type of split in the AGQ shares?
one more for the road:
Invest in GDX Dec 7, adjusted high 64.22
Today’s price: 59.84 (3:28 EST)
Return: -6.8%
Invest in EWJ Dec 7, adjusted close – 10.49
Today’s price: 10.62
Return: + 1.2%
Even with the nuclear accident, Japanese ETF is still ahead of GDX since GDX hit its high in December. How long that will last, who knows, but it does amuse me 🙂
I know we’re not suppose to worry about the intraday wiggles but I am concerned that we hit an all time high in gold and just kept on dumping from there.
Kevin,
Having been through this experience many times, it always feels like getting mugged.
Ultimately, the market will tell you how to interpret the news. If the market feels that management is diluting the stock to line their own pockets, or that they’re mismanaging cash, the stock will start to underperform its peers.
Other times, the market shrugs it off as the cost of doing business and it’s forgotten within a few days.
In the middle of a move like this, a dilution will probably be shrugged off quickly. Over the next few weeks, anything with the word “silver” in it is going higher.
But it bears watching. There are tons of former momentum PM stocks that were the GPL of their day. Once the market falls out of love with them, it’s time to move on to the next one.
Gary will also tell you that this is why he doesn’t invest in individual juniors any more — so he doesn’t have to wake up to bad news.
(silver action)
“How you like dat, eh?!? You wan some morh?”
[scarface voice]
🙂
Nice drop, boys in the pit love this shit. (Pit still around?)
Funny bulls blame a measly 5% margin hike, stuff they do ALL the time on fast moving instruments.
Well still only down $0.40 for the entire day though 🙂
Had to post this recent summary from zerohedge for all looking for an explanation for the recent selloff.
“In tried and true fashion, just as Silver was about to viciously destabilize the global capital markets as it surged to new 31 year highs, the CME stepped in and did its usual 3-6 half life intervention by hiking initial and maintenance margins on silver futures from $11,138 and $8,250 to $11,745 and $8,700 respectively. This is merely the latest margin hike in what appears to be a neverneding series designed to reduce speculative “fervor” courtesy of endless liquidity. What it will do is merely provide a better entry point for those who by now realize that silver’s next stop in the fiat endgame is $40, then $50, and so forth. Naturally, the price drop in silver caused gold to sell off too. And now that the CME accepts gold as collateral, we can’t even visualize the reflexive loops that develop once the metal that is also a collateral currency becomes more and less valuable at the same time.”
coolkevs: And cocoa is up even more. So is tin in Borneo. Who cares?
I know we’re not supposed to worry about intraday wiggles… BUT THIS IS THE TOP I AM LIQUIDATING EVERYTHING INCLUDING MY FINE SILVER TEA KETTLE!
Coolkevs, Why don’t you back those time frames to say 2000 and tell us what you come up with.
Here goes my profits again but I believe in Gary and holding!
TZ, Thanks. It’s not so much a money issue as a getting the feet wet issue. I like to dip toes first.
The current pullback to (as I write) 3698, is a normal shake out the weak hands pullback. To be expected after such a huge run up and with margins being raised.
However, for those of you trading out there, it has just bounced off trendline support on the four hour chart. Looks like this will hold. If it does not I am lightening up slightly, but obviously retaining core position.
I’ve posted the chart here:
http://chart.ly/5aeq7k6
“Here goes my profits again but I believe in Gary and holding!”
Ha, What do you mean? We’re up HUGE, it’s a 40cent drop!
AG/FR.TO holding gains like a champ!
First Majestic (AG) up 4% on massive volume. Avg. volume 750,000; today on pace for 3,000,000. Looks like the big boys are seeing where the quality is and are starting to accumulate it. Remember, this just went to NYSE big board three months ago.
“You all know that a fish will not rise to the fly in calm water. It is when the wind blows and the surface is ruffled that the poor victim mistakes the lure for a genuine fly. So it is with the business affairs of the world. In stormy times, when prices are going up and down, when the value of the article used as money is dancing about – up today and down tomorrow – and the waters are troubled, the clever speculator catches the fish and fills his basket with the victims.”
Andrew Carnegie – The ABC of Money – 1891
Poly, When you are a new sub and still adding in, it does not look as good as those who started out at $30 silver. lol.
Since the EWJ hit its high its down over 8%. How is that better than GDX?
traderlady, if you are still looking to add these are the days you want to do it.
@traderlady,
OK, but I’ve seen you around for a while, maybe you were not completely “believe(ing) in Gary and holding”
🙂
You will be fine.
S&P and Dow above 50 dma, some said it wouldn’t happen.
traderlady,
I was a new sub in late Feb and felt the same way at each pullback. Now, not even a month later, my cost basis is well below today’s price and I’ve quickly come to appreciate the pullbacks as buying opps. That’s not a recommendation to buy, just my own personal experience.
Also, Silver just tested the last high and bounced off of it. Resistance became support.
This comment has been removed by the author.
traderlady,
I was in the same boat during the intermediate low. I wasn’t fully confident so I added a bit and I’ve been adding all the way up and dips. I just keep listening to Gary and keep thinking to myself it should be ok. I still even added today!
@archrival
Brand new blogger account….mmmmm, I wonder who you could be !!! ROFL.
Apologies the last chart screenshot didn’t have the prices on….here’s the revision:
http://chart.ly/u3r98m3
cool – gdx is really done nothing vis-a-vis October top. Its just above that. any regular equity much better in same period. gold oct top was 1387 so actual gold is up 3% in same period. I trust gary but it seems to me that regular equity has to keep going up (even if its at less rate) to get gdx really running. so now in remaining period regular equity may go up in small percentage and gdx may go up in much higher percentage but regular equity also has to go up. otherwise i don’t think gdx is going to run only becuase of gold.
Prepare to do some buying into any morning weakness, if we’re lucky enough to get it.
Long and strong.
Another attractive feature with the NUGT etf is that it has both gold and silver miners.
I can’t wait til this one starts trading like the other leveraged funds.
EXK, SVM, SIL, and NUGT on my list to buy tomorrow, but only into weakness as I’m already pretty well loaded.
Hmmm… general market vs. PM’s. I got one of my buddies interested in Gary’s approach by creating an Excel spreadsheet that kept track of a sample PM portfolio and sharing that with him. I started at the begining of 2010. Here are the results as of a couple of days ago:
SPY: +11.9 annualized
PM Portfolio: +98%
I’ll stick with Gary’s approach.
Gary, I’m not much of a candles guy, but I think you need to address in the report those really UGLY looking candles on today’s charts, gold one looks like a piercing bearish candle, silver looks like a shooting star, although neither opened above previous day’s high so that probably lessens their impact but nevertheless they do look UGLY.
By the way, that buddy of mine subscribed!
Correction, neither of the bodies is above the body of the previous day.
From ZH:
Something rather disturbing from a European trading desk…
TODAY TWO LARGE MACRO FUNDS OVER HERE HAVE GONE WILDLY LONG S&P. NOT LONG. WE TALKING 250% NET LONG. IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERTED ACTION ON GDP DGRADES FROM GS AND BOFA ARE THE LETTER DELIVERED TO BEN ON QE3. HUGE DIRECTIONAL BET WITH NEW CAPITAL PUT AT WORK. MOST LIKELY THE TWO INSTITUTIONS ARE COORDINATING ACTION WITH OFFICES IN CONNECTICUT. CHECK INFLOWS OF BLUE CHIP HEDGE FUNDS IN JAN FEB. APPLY 2.5 LEVERAGE. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SOME 40-60BN PUT AT WORK PRIMARILY ON EMINIS AT THE MOMENT. WHETHER SOME EXTERNAL FORCE WILL LEAVE THEM HIGH AND DRY I DON’T KNOW. BUT IF ANYTHING SEEMED TO BE AT LEAST NOT TOO IRRATIONAL UP TO NOW, IN THIS THIRD WAVE, BE READY FOR REAL ROCK AND ROLL.
P,
Go back and look at other C-wave’s and big legs up. You will see lots of these big “ugly” candles. Sometimes they lead to short term weakness. Most of the time they are meaningless and only succeed in getting the emotional retail investor to cough up his shares in front of another push higher.
Our stops are in place. We can’t lose money (as long as you got in at the intermediate bottom).
Just have the discipline to follow the plan.
I sold off two mutual funds and took the penalty today, I am sure they will call me again and tell me you shouldn’t do that, we will boot you out on one more. So will buy in the morning for opportunities with the lower prices. I have to hold off for my last sell out on GOLD mutual fund until the 28th/20th of March or they boot me out for good. 4 hits and you are done. So will wait for 28th/29whenever it lets me sell as of 30 days. At least it’s in Gold fund, so should be mutual fund with account activity/abilities and won’t be mutilated with funds accounts capability to get back in.
low tax .. we were comparing just gdx .. PM portfolio is different and gary pm portfolio dosen’t even have gdx (which is good thing)
no argument against pm portfolio.
Driver,
Why is that disturbing? I don’t care about the S&P.
yash,
gary has said he isnt in gold for this c wave and silver is the play to be in.
at ease,
What fund/brokerage company are you in?
Even Vanguard won’t kick you out for selling your funds.
You may want to think about relocating to a brokerage that lets you do what you want with your money.
Can someone give a beginning date for the last C wave?
What wave was the August to november surge called?
Thanks.
Fidelity Funds, they block you from reinvesting in their funds accounts if you do a roundtrip within 30 days. I had to downsize some other mutual funds into these 3 main funds in Feb. So have been collapsing all the mutual funds investments down to 3 and the last to stand is the Gold fund, which I can get out by the 29th of March and not get blocked. I think it is 85 days before you can get back in. So I think I am ok with this plan. I like Fidelity, no problems otherwise. Just had to read the fine print and found out it is 4 round trips and they block you, not 3. So will wait for 29th on the last sell off. Wanted to play safe down the road with Hubbys account as he retires next year and wants that Villages home from his funds.
Driver, wouldn’t that be glorious for us?
at ease,
The fund companies do that to discourage market timers who switch in and out of funds as part of a strategy, although I can’t imagine who still does that now that ETFs are readily available.
Easiest thing to do is get a brokerage account at Fidelity. On the brokerage side you do what you want, no questions asked. Then, if you want to switch back to mutual funds long term, you always have that option.
Bob, be careful what you wish for.
This C-wave began at $860 in April 09.
@ at_ease,
That sounds more like a “IRS Wash Rule” than a Fidelity rule. Trust me, nobody rejects re-invested assets because you cash out before.
All,
If silver closes at 5:45 EST at $37.20 or higher (positive)..
Will today be officially considered an outside day reversal (bullish)?
thx
Ben, All I can do is prepare for it. Being largely in Metals and miners, it is glorious for us.
We will outpace the damage.
Poly, they do say it’s an rule they have to follow. Unfortunately I had just diversified my hubbys funds into a variety of sectors in January before I found Gary. So have been collapsing out of them all slowly and investing in Silver and Gold for his account. Getting there. Just trying to make money for him, not lose it and follow their rules as best I can.
Thanks Gary.
Pesky dollar index…
If we open lower I will add still more. Probably just a smidge of AGQ…another 3% then…Wow!! I’ll be leveraged! : )
My Allocation:
SLV 30%
SIL 24%
GDXJ: 23%
SLW: 11%
AGQ: 10%
Currently at 98%.
USD forming a bear flag.
And Like Clockwork, CME Hikes Silver Margins Halting Surge
In tried and true fashion, just as Silver was about to viciously destabilize the global capital markets as it surged to new 31 year highs, the CME stepped in and did its usual 3-6 half life intervention by hiking initial and maintenance margins on silver futures from $11,138 and $8,250 to $11,745 and $8,700 respectively. This is merely the latest margin hike in what appears to be a neverneding series designed to reduce speculative “fervor” courtesy of endless liquidity. What it will do is merely provide a better entry point for those who by now realize that silver’s next stop in the fiat endgame is $40, then $50, and so forth. Naturally, the price drop in silver caused gold to sell off too. And now that the CME accepts gold as collateral, we can’t even visualize the reflexive loops that develop once the metal that is also a collateral currency becomes more and less valuable at the same time.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/5ug3scu
Le Fou
David, the first line was from ZH. Also, a few of us here do care about the S&P.
Test
Great story, Peter! Congratus on hanging in there and with Gary’s help making it all back. And now you go green! Thanks for posting.
Folks you aren’t doing yourself any favors with this manipulation nonsense.
All that happened was the HUI rallied up and tested the triangle consolidation trend line.
The entire sector rallied so viciously that it stretched quite far above the 10 DMA.
All that happened today was just normal profit taking triggered by the entire sector hitting resistance and while getting a little ahead of itself. Nothing more.
AGQ 60Min Chart ,Bullish Backtest of Past Pivot High ?
http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/67750dd5-f5c1-49e7-a388-21299ce8b9e5
So CME raised the performance bonds on what I believe is a COMEX options expiry day and at all time highs for gold and silver. Coincidence? I think not.
And I just wonder how many small players panicked and sold their tanking PMs, which they had just bought on today’s gold breakout. And I bet that the big guns even knew of the margin hike in advance.
Fortunately, I had a small sum of money left over from an abandoned trainwreck of a trade in QID, so that ended up in AGQ instead.
Welcome spoken Gary.
Gavin (new sub?) posted a nice 4 hour chart that clearly showed this reversion to the trend. We’re still up sharply.
However Gary what do you make of the S&P, holding up nicely? If it’s going to tail, it would need to do it very soon, no?
we got a veronica/vuyyuiy buy signal today with the pits closing down and userx up. Maybe tomorrow will be happy Friday.
GARY,
It is easy for you to jab any and all comments about manipulation in the metals. You do so from a safe distance – dismissive of all reasoning to the contrary.
Yet you so do while never commiting yourself to a solid position.
I will do that now by reversing the discussion.
WHAT WOULD IT TAKE for YOU to agree or admit that there are reasons for people running the fiat monetary system to push gold and silver lower (or slow their rise). And that these actions have occurred and continue to occur.
I believe that your response of ‘what would it take’ will highlight the untenuousness of your continuing “no way it makes ANY sense whatsoever” position (which goes against people as high up as Greenspan who actually RAN the system.)
Personally, I’m with Doc.
I don’t think the S&P is going to tank.
I think it’s going to ramp with the PMs. The PMs will be the star performers by a wide margin, however.
Ultimately, I don’t care one way or the other, as I’m all PMs.
What are YOUR conditions?
What would it take for YOU to agree?
I suspect you will only be satistifed by a signed sworn statement in blood by either Bernanke or Blankfein and friends and 1000 witnesses corroborating with videotape.
What would it take?
What are YOUR criteria?
What facts are currently missing for you to make that FINAL LINK?
TZ,
I can answer that from my perspective.
There’s no reason for the powers that be to be preoccupied with the gold price at this point. If they wanted to manipulate something, it would be the price of oil, not gold.
Just because the price of gold is all-important to goldbugs doesn’t mean it’s all-important to everyone. Over the last 20 years it’s been at most a curiosity or novelty to most mainstream economists, including the ones at the Fed.
I imagine that if you gave Ben Bernanke a truth serum and asked him if gold concerned him, he would say that it did, but only as a potential bubble whose bursting could threaten the system.
Only in the years to come will the price of gold be seen by mainstream economists as an indictment of Central Bankers and their policies.
I should amend “threaten the system” to “threaten the economy if it grows too large and then bursts”.
What would it take?
Someone to give me a logical reason why the government or Fed gives a damn about the price of a shiny metal?
I have yet to hear one. All I ever see is completely illogical nonsense for why a trade didn’t do what gold bugs think it should do.
This is just starting to get ridiculous. Are you people really going to sink to the level where every time gold doesn’t do what you think it should it’s going to be because of manipulation?
In case everyone hasn’t noticed gold is at new all time highs. Silver is at new highs, huge new highs.
How in the hell can that be happening if the market is manipulated?
If the government is going to f**k with something they need to do it to oil. That’s a commodity that matters. Gold is completely meaningless.
BTW Greenspan’s comments concerning gold were made at a time when the dollar was backed by gold. If that were the case now then yes the Fed would have a case to manipulate price if it was possible (it isn’t)
Re. Price manipulation; I think the key thing is that even if price manipulation occurs (and I am not saying it does), it would only be a short term effect.
To suggest that prices can be manipulated in the long run is, I believe, just not true. Jim Rogers was asked about this recently and said it nonsense. I think he knows his stuff.
Just follow the trend, which is up.
TZ,
Needing to see the markets in moral terms — as a battle between good and evil — will cost you money.
The goldbugs hold these conspiracy theories dear because they lost money day in and day out from 1980-2000.
Instead of realizing that the secular bull market had ended, they just hung on, very much like our friend Beanie does in the stock market.
They needed their conspiracy theories to keep them warm while they watched everyone else prosper in the stock market. They dreamed of the comeuppance that everyone else would get when gold finally returned to the center of the universe.
These people will continue to hold on past $5000 gold and will give back all their gains in the years thereafter because they think that gold is some magical substance that is supposed to go up every minute of every day forever and ever.
The goldbugs will cost you money. If you drink their Kool-Aid, you will not sell at $5000 or $6000 or whatever the top is. You will hold it forever and lose money for years and years and years like they did.
If being part of a struggle between good and evil is psychologically more important to you than making money, great. You can pay for that experience.
But don’t go around selling that nonsense to newcomers who have a chance to profit from this gold bull and improve their lives.
I won’t address any particular manipulation of gold and silver by governments and central banks. But I will say I believe that central banks and governments care deeply about the shiny metals. Why else would they own them, and why else would CB’s around the world be rushing to buy as much gold as they can at the moment?
The dollar and all fiat currencies are a confidence game, and the alternative currencies of gold and silver shine the light of truth on the malfeasance of those who enrich themselves by forcing fiat money down our throats. Governments have a vested interest in making sure nothing challenges their pretty pieces of paper. Legal tender laws are proof of that.
I can certainly believe that governments and CB’s do attempt to manage the price appreciation of gold and silver. As long as the rise is discreet enough to not draw attention to their debasement of the currencies, they can continue without causing too much suspicion. But a violent explosion of PM prices would give rise to a search for reasons, and that would shine the light of truth on the ruling class.
Always funny to see the fear blogs run pictures of Blythe Masters and scream bloody murder EVERY SINGLE time Gold/Silver down. When it spikes up, it’s good old fashioned markets and supply/demand. ROFL.
I think we need to define the word “manipulation.”
In my opinion, do I think that someone (or a large institution) out there is placing large sell orders to crush the bid on the silver price, while they have buy orders in on many derivative products that get taken down at the same time (e.g. ETFs, miners, options, futures). Yes.
They may “lose” some money if they cover at a higher price (driving price back up) but they made out like bandits going “long” on “derivatives.”
Is this “manipulation?” Of course. Is it legal and within the rules? Yes.
One of the things I don’t understand is the deal with JP Morgan having this massive short position.
Based on my readings, they have had this short position for 2+ years.
Ok. Don’t these future contracts have a delivery date? What does it mean they are short this much? Does it mean these contracts are leaps, 3 years out or are they next month contracts that they keep rolling over?
How is it that we have month after month after month go by and their “short” position is still there? Logically they must be buying or rolling, correct?
What I do have a problem is “if” JPM is breaking the rules. From what I understand they are in a class of traders that has to show some degree of offsetting long positions. Well if these long positions are OTC, other derivatives then I believe this is against the rules.
Another theory is this…
For every short they have, there has to be a long.
Well….
What if:
1) Goldman is the bank that is long (holding for treasury or FED) or
2) Another entity is long
In other words, they are selling short to themselves or an entity that won’t take delivery and will absorb the offsetting gains versus losses.
What I do know is the whole thing is shady.
Could someone be kind enough to point a novice to a decent charting tool , so I can track the 10/20 DMA etc
Clarkatroid,
sharpcharts.com
Carbon Emissions down 2.45% today.
Damn carbon manipulation ponzi scheme jackasses get me everytime!
Clarkatroid,
I don’t know what the others are using, but here is a free charting website.
http://www.freestockcharts.com/
Clark
freestockcharts.com
EW haters, move along, nothing to see here… 🙂
Let’s assume that Gary is correct in saying we’re in the last phase of this C wave and we have at least one, maybe two daily cycle highs ahead of us.
If that’s the way it plays out, the recent daily cycle low in EW terms could be labeled wave 2 of 5. Today’s pullback could be wave 2 of 3 of 5 (that is wave 1 of 3 of 5 topped at today’s high).
That would mean we’d have waves 3 of 3 of 5 and 5 of 3 of 5 as new highs ahead of us in this daily cycle.
The next daily cycle low would be wave 4 of 5. And the daily cycle that begins anew from the low would take us to its high, wave 5 of 5.
Summary: a large wave 5 began at the IT low, wave 1 of that large wave topped at the top of the first daily cycle and wave 2 of that large wave bottomed at the recent daily cycle low on 3/15. So we’re now in wave 3 of that large 5th wave and each pullback we see will be just corrective wave of a lesser degree playing out.
Note the following retracement levels of the move up from the daily cycle low on 3/15 to today’s high:
GLD – slightly more than 38 percent at today’s low
SLV – about 30 percent at today’s low
HUI – not even 25 percent at today’s low
GDXJ – 20 percent at today’s low
SIL – about the same as GDXJ
So from a retracement standpoint, today’s pullback is entirely within the bounds of what is normal (for a second wave of a third wave, assuming the move down today wave 2 of 3 of 5).
So as SB (my twin brother) likes to say: “Everything is O.K.”
I’m going to make a guess and say that JPM probably has some of the smartest and best capitalized traders in the world working there. Does anyone really think that these people are unable to see the bull market in gold or silver?
Does anyone really think these people would be stupid enough to trade against something like that?
Do you think they are seriously trying to lose money? Because that’s what trading against a secular bull market is. A serious attempt to lose money. No professional trader worth his salt would ever do that.
So what is the motivation for JPM to make the colossal mistake of trading against a bull market?
Rod,
The “JP Morgan short position in silver” dates back to before I started investing in PMs in 2000.
At that point it made some sense, because silver kept getting knocked down to $4 year in year out.
At this point it’s absurd. Think about it. They would be down 1000% on that short position at this point, ten years later. Don’t you think they would have covered by now? Don’t you think they got the memo in 2001 when the big miners started dehedging? How stupid do you think they are?
I can assure you that JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are making money off the PM bull. They are long. If anything, they are driving this spike higher, not lower, sucking in as many retail investors as possible in order to leave them as bagholders later.
They will make money coming and going, the way they always do.
I found a reasonable opinion on why there may be manipulation of silver:
http://screencast.com/t/zJ8JfM4V
Here’s a link to the article:
http://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-bullet-and-the-silver-shield/
Pima got that right, Everything is OK!
The reason I’ve stepped a way from this board for awhile is to stay focused on the big picture. I really enjoy this place, but it can be a disservice at times when we all get tangled up is reasoning the last 1/2 move. Sometimes it’s good to step away for a few days, hence Gary’s advice to shut down the computers for a few weeks. I’ve taken his advice lately and life has been real good. 🙂
Razvan,
My chart shows USERX closed DOWN today, so no signal.
Couldn’t resist, bought a big stack of AGQ after hours @ $220 on margin. Margin balance went red, but nothing a little wire transfer can not fix in the morning.
Weak hands got shaken today and new players are at the table. Wash rinse repeat. Wash rinse repeat. Wash rinse repeat
We are firmly in the drivers seat.
Does anyone remember the blog where Gary posted both the high and low historical dow to gold ratios? I meant to copy that and save it but didn’t
Razvan: You have to wait for USERX to post today’s close, and Pima was right that it was down. Also, you can often tell beforehand because it’s a basket of miners, and they were weak today.
Stop lying Shalom, you were off printing like mad for a few days
pima .. you can follow ew count of tony c for gold and silver .. its is preety good. its almost similar to what you have mentioned. he has this in last 5th wave of major 3. In 5th wave 1,2 are done and 3 is going on. with in 3 he has not marked 1,2 yet but that could be same as what you are saying. wave 3of 5 will daily cycle top with wave 4 of 5 as daily cycle low. then wave 5 of 5 will complete next daily cycle top which will be his major 3 top too. that means major 4 will start similar to D wave which he thinks in silver can go to 26. Then last major 5 will start of bull market which can be subdvided into multiple (at least 2) abcd of gary’s. by his oew he has gold target of minimum 3750 at major 5 top which will be bull market top.
Re: manipulation, here is an article that aligns with what Tudor was saying:
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/03/why-central-banks-of-west-hate-gold.html
Takeaway—> because gold is such a useless and shiny piece of metal, it’s absolute: if it rose dramatically in price, it would be hard for governments to explain; their money printing/double entry book keeping schemes would be revealed to the masses.
Oil and food prices rising can be explained away by demand/supply/weather/political crisis…factors outside of their control.
Having said that, however, I used to be a gold bug but am now more in middle path/pragmatic- all thanks to learning from Gary’s cycle knowledge. Will be cashing out at end of this c-wave.
fergot to mention his gold target of major 4 wave 1308 or so. I don’t remember D wave targets.
someone asked for historical ratios.
I have this one
http://www.chartsrus.com/
I can assure you that if gold was at $2000 or $3000 or $4000 the public wouldn’t for a second all of a sudden wake up and say “oh my gosh there must be inflation and it must be the governments fault” “its time for a revolution”
This argument is just doesn’t hold water. The public has been weened off gold as money for decades. Let’s face it we are never going back.
And for what it’s worth a gold standard or gold as money has never stopped a country from debasing it’s currency.
So to think that we would somehow cure our problem by backing the currency with gold is to not understand history.
Since gold was at $300/oz in Jan, 2002 to today’s price of $1428, gold has risen dramatically in price, yet the Fed has not done very much “explaining” of anything. I don’t think they feel the need to explain it. How could they explain away this increase as anything other than inflation of the money supply, and the devaluation of the dollar?
Yash,
Thank you.
you guys are right..my apologies.
The price for USERX was up when i checked it but it must have not closed yet.
Gary,
It seem pretty easy to look at the Dow:Gold ratio and decide when to sell PM’s but not so easy to decide when the stock bull is over and when to start buying PM’s. Any input?
Anyone have any insights/information on what’s happening with PZG?
Technically, it seems to be stalling. (For example, aerospace-engineer-by-day, technician by night Merv in his latest report switched its ‘primary intermediate term rating’ from positive to negative.)
Fundamentally, though, according to Techperson’s recent posts, it’s looking good – even if, like me, you don’t actually understand much of the terminology:
(March 2): a killer NI 43-101 will be filed later this month; also they hold an Echo Bay property (evidently a good thing)
(Match 23): an announcement on the assay report on the tailings pile at Sleeper will give them $70 million of silver; more on the NI 43-101 – if it shows the expected 5 million ounces, they’ll sell the project/whole company to CDC or one of the Mexican majors.
Plus, further googling showed that the highly respected PM investor Friedberg has a large stake in the company. And that respected investment firm Stansberry list it as their top-performing open position, recommended by Dr Steve Sjuggerud, no less.
So, the fundamentals sound good, even to a non-expert.
Yet, I also came across a denial by the CEO that they had any intention of selling up from earlier this year.
And the recent price action, with most companies in the PM sector on a tear, is … concerning.
As a long-time lurker on this blog, I’m well aware of Gary’s warning against putting more than 5% of one’s portfolio into a single company.
But it seems that in later stages of a C-wave, it’s outlying minors like PZG that have the potential to show the biggest gains.
Anyway, I’ve let my position in this one creep up above the recommended limit – and would be grateful for any comments on PZG’s prospects.
“Gold and silver are money. Everything else is credit.” J. Pierpont Morgan
if jpm has a large unbacked short position and there is manipulation, it is because they are not allowed to have a large unbacked long position. its called the silver 7 rule or something like that and came as a result after the hunt brothers incident. google it. 🙂
one of my favorite Gary quotes…
“If we can do that (get to the next C Wave with prior profits intact) for two more ABCD cycles and a final parabolic bubble, each and every one of us should be able to walk away from this secular bull market financially free.”
Raz: USERX doesn’t really “close.” It’s a mutual fund so they post the day’s NAV at 5:30 EST or so. It’s not that it hadn’t closed yet earlier today. It was that yesterday’s NAV and change was still showing.
Book guy,
I’m not sure what you are asking me.
I’m talking about following secular bull markets. Shifting from the general stock market ie the Dow to Gold and vice versa. It seems like 1:1 Gold Dow is when one would sell gold and move to Dow, but when would one sell Dow and move to Gold. How do we know? It isn’t a magical ratio, or does not seem that way to me. I don’t see a correlation to interest rates or P/E ratios. Just wondering what you would look for. I have no idea.
book guy,
You don’t have to worry about when to shift back to gold from the Dow, because it’s not going to be necessary for another 30 years or so.
You should be very wealthy by then 😉
Yash,
What target does Tony C have for silver for this major 3 and next major 5 ?
Thks.
LOL Well, there went my diversification strategy… the only funds closed in the green today were the mutual funds, of which two of the 3 I sold today to put more funds in Gold/Silver funds. (the gains were piddly didn’t even cover my penalty).
David,
Thank you and though I share your view, I would also like to learn as much as I can. 🙂
Rick4779
That statement caught my attention as well.
We need that kind of confidence in this dour economy.
Gary,
How often do you go back, or reflect, on your past charting and calls (for tops and bottoms)?
TBG, how about fundamentals like $USD?
CME raised margins on Silver future. It might have been the trigger that caused the afternoon weakness. This is the 4th time they raised it in the past 4 months. Didn’t stop it the past 3 times, why worry now?
the big selloff occurred around 1pm est. isnt that when comex closes and some big players taking profits?
somone posted something about QE3 earlier…zerohedge has to add to that
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/meanwhile-afterhours
SDJ,
I don’t dwell on a good or bad call if that’s what you are asking. I don’t necessarily buy into the concept that one can look at the past and prevent mistakes.
Sure you can look back and say “my position size was too large and I wasn’t thinking clearly” That kind of mistake you can prevent.
But one can’t look back at a trade that went south and say well when I see that setup I will go the other way next time. That just doesn’t work. The conditions are always changing in this business.
You will never be able to sidestep every land mine, it’s just not possible in real time.
The best we can do is try to keep the odds in our favor, control risk and when we make a mistake try to spot it quickly and correct it so it doesn’t hurt us too badly.
This is one reason why I want no part of the stock market. I can’t figure out any way to get the odds on my side.
By riding the gold bull I can get the big trend in my favor. If I make a timing mistake, which I invariably will, the trend will “fix it”.
Daily Moving Average
Maybe. Seems to me like overall fundamentals is the key. A general feeling of easy credit, great markets, lower interest rates. I guess I was hoping it was something a little more concrete that someone who isn’t very perceptive could see. A lot of people I work with ask me a lot of investing questions. You help one person and they make a lot of money and word starts to get around.
Book Guy,
The Dow:Gold ratio is useful for calling a top in gold, but it’s not really useful for calling a top in the stock market.
It’s more of a general rule of thumb than a law. It corresponds to the commodity cycle, which holds that commodity bull markets and stock market bull markets run in opposing cycles. The reason for this is that stocks generally tend to do well in periods when commodities, particularly oil, are falling in price and poorly when they rise in price.
So there’s a fundamental macroeconomic underpinning behind the idea.
Luckily, when it reaches 1:1 or thereabouts, which won’t happen for several years, we can shift into stocks for the next 20 years or so.
A question for you experienced futures guys out there:
When CME ups the margin requirement, does this often push over-levered players into liquidation?
If so it seems like the perfect time for big players to run the stops.
thanks DG, i am on board now
What an excellent response to my inquiry. That is precisely the reason this “New Sub” jumped aboard.
And I agree wholeheartedly, Hindsight is 20-20, and working it in realtime, while making money, is a very difficult exercise.
Sometimes an exercise in futility!
I can’t tell you all enough how glad I am to have found this place. I am learning things with every post. Well, at least the majority of posts.
Thanks.
josh,
there are big players on both sides of the silver trade. higher margins will not hurt big players who know the price is going up and want to hold for delivery or just get paid a premium in lieu of delivery.
Book Guy,
Here’s a post that explains the commodity cycle:
“The rationale for this is simple. The price of physical goods are expenses for corporations as they are the raw materials to produce things. When the costs increase, profits decrease. This trend continues until it reaches an inflection point where it can not continue. Profits decrease and a retrenchment takes place. Demand decreases for raw materials and their prices fall.
Then this trend continues until investments in the acquirement and production of raw materials is ignored. Mines take billions of dollars to develop and can take decades to ramp up production. Oil reserves likewise are expensive to find and exploit. As the current supplies are depleted, the prices of physical goods rises. It continues to rise until it reaches a tipping point when investment in the sector once again is lucrative. And the wheel turns again.”
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-18-year-stock-market-commodity-cycle-2760.html
I don’t rememeber tony c silver targets but gold targets are major wave 3 as 1700 or so and major 5 target 3750 .. where bull end. you can culculate rough silver targets using these may be
Yash, thanks for your answer anyway.
Also he has gold bull top in 2014 itself as he tracks it as 13 yr commodity cycle.
Below is from his update (tony c) .. the last sentence is gary wave c and wave d in 2011. So that aligns properly. After that he has top in 2014 itself and I think gary thinks its later towards 2018.
The 1967-1980 Gold bull market unfolded in time cycles with the following pattern in years: 3-3-3-2-2. This translates into important turning points in the following years: 1970-1973-1976-1978-1980. The current bull market appears to be following a slightly different time cycle pattern: 3-2-2-3-3, or 2004-2006-2008-2011-2014. As a result we expect Major wave 3 to top in 2011, and Major wave 4 to bottom in 2011 as well.
@GARY
about the cycle rading on S&P, try this one:
http://img828.imageshack.us/i/83878757.jpg/
RED= yearly bottom
GREEN= intermediate bottom
BLUE= daily cycle bottom.
According to this, we are in the last intermediate of a yearly cycle.
I espect a double top or a marginal new high @around 1350 in 15-25 days, then a multi week plunge to 1150 or lower.
Hey N1tro,
I get that for sure. Not quite what I meant tho, sorry.
If you’re long X contracts and you’ve got just the minimum maintenance cash to back it, does an increase in margin requirement force you to liquidate (or deposit of more cash)?
In other words, does an increase in margin requirement create forced liquidation? I remember a similar thing back on 11/7/2010, and it also coincided with a large reversal day in silver, although at a very different point in the fall rally and cycle count.
The only problem is I’ve never heard of a daily cycle that is only 14 days long. The average is 30-40 and even that has stretched to 60 because of QE.
The only way the counts really “work” is for Feb 24 as the last daily cycle and the current cycle now being left translated.
The yearly cycle low would then come just about right on time in early May.
David,
Thank you, I really appreciate your detailed input. I would say I have a decent handle on it myself. I am trying to think of a way to show people when to enter and exit each market. I guess their is no easy way for lazy investors.
I have a fitness website and one of my core beliefs is that everyone should study two things. Health and Investing. I feel that they are the two most valuable things in life and that no one will care about them more than you.
I like to give people solid, easy to follow, easy to understand advice. I sort of look at it like I’m teaching a single mom who works 10 hour days and cooks and cleans and takes care of the kids. She needs me to tell her what to do when this…
I think I can find a way to describe it though. Basically when your taxi driver tells you his gold stocks, look at selling. When your taxi driver thinks the stock market will never go down look to sell general equities…
I’ll keep looking at it.
WOW
Tried quickly catching up, but going to skip for now. I looked at charts and all looks fairly good, but it appears riding it ‘real time’ was a bit uneasy…in that case.
GARY- nice report tonight to neutralize the uneasy blog.
DAVID gave a nice reply to GPL.
I have owned other miners that have done this, its a pure business investment move many times.
You hear their reports of “DRILL TEST” shows high grade silver over XXX area of property, XXX deep.
(WE all applaud), but they now have to go get it, so earnings they announce , “We will increase production by 500,000 ounces nxt yr” , (again we all applaud).
Now they sell 1 million shares for $5 million to buy new equipment, permits, drills, hire more miners , and we SELL …the JERKS are screwing with us!! hehe
As David implied, If they raised 5 million when the stock was $1 , they would have to sell 5 million shares!!- today they sold a bit over 1 million shares, “Progress Has No Patience” in the business world. 🙂
At the open on a 1 day chart , 1 million sold …it bounced, now retested at end of day. May go fill the gap at $4.10 , I may buy more 🙂
Goodnight, going out.
Book guy,
The taxi driver thing is nice, but it doesn’t work well in practice. People don’t understand how long the cycles are. I’ve had people say everyone’s bearish on real estate, so that’s where I should invest, without realizing that real estate is going to be impaired for 20 years.
You are never going to come up with a quick rule of thumb for people, because they have to understand the fundamentals. Otherwise they won’t stick to the program.
i cant speak for the big boys but when they increase the margins, it just gets taken out of my account after 5pm est. i’m not using my full 200x leverage so it doesnt affect me or knock me out. i doubt the big players are leveraged to the point that it would knock them out rather they would unload because they rather not pay the carrying cost for whatever reason
Just for the record: I have a bet with Gary about the alleged manipulation. The win critera is the legal outcome of the ongoing class action suits against JPM and HSBC for manipulation. Conviction – I win a beer. No conviction – I’ll buy Gary a beer. I guess it’s a tad optimistic to expect a resolution of the bet before the Switzerland trip, but I keep my fingers crossed. 🙂
Meanwhile, my strongest “evidence” are the following:
Exhibit A: An official statement issued by the CFTC and written by one of their commissioners. He says:
“I believe that there have been repeated attempts to influence prices in the silver markets. There have been fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control that price. Based on what I have been told by members of the public, and reviewed in publicly available documents, I believe violations to the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) have taken place in silver markets and that any such violation of the law in this regard should be prosecuted.”
Source: http://www.cftc.gov/pressroom/speechestestimony/chiltonstatement102610.html
Exhibit B: A non-refutable analysis of many year’s worth of intraday gold price movements that show beyond a shadow of a doubt that the price drops in a statistcally determined way for the London AM and especially PM gold fix.
Source: http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/IntradayGCManipulation.php
Why do I bother about this since we make a lot of money anyway? Just curiosity and a certain craving for justice and fairness to prevail.
Just a few more tidbits:
JPM actually inherited the massive short position from Bear Stearn, when they took over their assets.
As I interpret the situation, the increasing access to information via the internet gradually makes the manipulation harder. As more and more people read and are clued in on the ongoing fiat currency debasement, the once profitable scare tactics are becoming difficult to continue. Too many investors simply call the bluff and buy the dips.
So JPM are actually in the process of unwinding their short position, even though it’s slow work, since they don’t want to send the price straight into orbit.
GGUY
I was expecting 1365 myself, since last yr, and I love the chart.
gary,
which site can i go to get get snetiment readings for gold,silver,dollar,market etc?
BookGuy,
What’s the link to your fitness site?
Nitro, the brokerage decreases your leverage the bigger you get. Margin raises only affect the little guys.
@GARY:
This was not a daily cycle. It happens sometimes (it’s not so rare) that an intermediate cycle is made by 2 daily cycles and then a half daily cycle after them.
I have intermediate stats from years and the IT cycle can last from 61-62 to 86-88 days.
62-64 days would be a straight 2_daily_cycles cycle intermediate.
Then you can have a quarter, half or another full daily cycle.
A full 3_daily_cycles intermediate last usually about 86 days.
Hm, no luck with the links above. Trying again:
href=”http://www.cftc.gov/pressroom/speechestestimony/chiltonstatement102610.html” target=”CFTC”
href=”http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/IntradayGCManipulation.php
I find it a bit schizophrenic when every fall in price is “blythe’s” fault and a bit naive on the opposite side when any ‘manipulation’ is cathegorically brushed aside as you tin foil fool you.
Dunno if it’s just me but some pretty remarkable things came up to the surface in the world. Like one very smart guy running a bit of a ponzi, which blew up at about 65 BILLION dollars. He was well respected at some point, something like chairman of NASDAQ stock market.
Take movies as a ballpark for what general public even can logically process. In movies in 80ties, they stole $100k from bank. In 90ties they stole a million from a bank. Now if they make a really over the top mission impossible, they’ll go and steal maybe 200million dollars. This guy in REAL WORLD ripped 65 billion.
Real world is nastier than general public can or will imagine. Either it’s hidden from you or if it’s in plain sight it’s so repulsive you will not be able to grasp the reality of it.
So JPMorgan has some of the smartest traders? I’m sure they have and are earning money on PM bull.
Just like all the banks were making a killing on the last bull called housing bubble – right up until late 2008 when all of a sudden all the banks needed billions of dollars of bailout or they’d be flat out bankrupt?
And then they turn around and hand out billions of bonuses. WTF.
So name of the game is that those in powerful positions will do everything, and i mean everything to remain powerful and gain more power. There are absolutely no ethics today. If you see any sign of ethics, it’s just used as instrument to gain more power. And there’s no risk to “losses” when banks trade. If the means are achieved, that’s all that matters, because money doesnt cost them anything.
And I’m sure an empire like USA must have some of the top of the top people having figured out how monetary policy will turn out in the end. People here think JPmorgan has almighty smart traders and Bernanke who’s controling USA’s money is a complete looney? Really? I agree, at 1,6 trillion deficit a year it doesnt look good, half of that bought by USA itself. It will end in a crash but i think it’s pretty much a planned way out of huge debt. Doesnt make sense otherwise.
And as far as manipulation question goes. IF anyone in the world can get more power by hitting on price of gold – then it’s being done. And if it’s in the interest of the banking sector – then the potential losses dont matter, because money doesnt cost anything.
Pff, hehehe, hell.. Even two brothers at some point in history manipulated price of silver, imagine that, two guys manipulated silver market! Maybe today there’s two guys hitting the price of silver down? Let alone JPM almighty with unlimited funding. Things are many times unimaginable until they’re uncovered, then they’re quickly accepted as common sense.
In the end it doesnt matter. Stock market is what it is, there’s always a way to profit from it. If it’s manipulated, then trade manipulation and be happy.
Sasha
sentimentrader.com
David,
Thanks for taking the time to share your knowledge. I’m starting to understand how you got to 7 figures++ .
During the last bull market I heard the manipulation conspiracy used in the energy markets. Whenever oil went down it was always because some cartel took it down because as everyone knew we were at peak oil and the fundamentals prevented oil from dropping. So if it did then it had to be a managed take down.
Of course when oil went up then it was because of speculators.
This need to blame someone for why things don’t do what one expects seems to be universal in all markets.
Heck I suppose there’s a cotton cartel that only the cotton traders know about too.
There’s no question that manipulation exists. The silver rally we are all enjoying right now was brought to you by the manipulation of dozens of hedge funds and god knows who else working in concert. But there is far more money to be made marking silver up than down.
What is naive is the idea that were it not for manipulation, gold and silver would go up in a perfectly straight line for all eternity.
Also i was thinking…
Would it be a gain or loss if people on this blog would have a proper forum where to discuss? Locked and available only to SMT members for instance. This blog comments system is a bit …. but it does have it’s plus sides as well.
Just an idea to maybe get the ball rolling and someone can put it up on the web in the end if Gary and enough people find it an improvement to SMT.
Sasha
David,
You are probably right.
catbird,
http://www.dragonfts.com
Just read Martin Armstrong’s newest letter and his dates are fairly close to what Gary is saying.
I barely have enough time to keep up with this blog. I can guarantee I’m not going to do two.
I would not have the energy to look at two blogs and do my day job
big achievement of the day for me was entering the hard stops at last
lol
Gary, maybe you should take this blog private and make it for subscribers only. There are way too many spammers. Only paying customers should be able to have access to your advice. Furthermore, you’ll have more time to focus your time on your newsletter and only answer paying customer emails.
I agree 100%. Private blog for subscribers with Gary’s attention when he’s available.
The purpose here is for Gary to increase subscriber base with no free lunches.
Gary does a tremendous service posting free content as well as staying active for all.
Quality over quantity, let’s not take advantage or burn him out.
I enjoy Chris Kimble’s work, but apparently, he is not a believer in cycles:
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/silgldreversaldaysmar24.gif
Nice that stuff like this is out there. To scare the weak hands.
i’m sure a private blog has crossed gary’s mind but i bet a burrito he wants x amount of subscribers before it be worthwhile for him to privatize.
Poly,
Good luck with you new AGQ position. Very gutsy.
I see the possibility of the pullback extending to somewhere between 35.60 and 36.47 on the May Silver futures contract. Doesn’t have to go that low–hell, it could rocket higher tomorrow–but if the pullback continues, that range should hold it.
GGuy,
Great chart, thanks for posting.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out!
Dobbs: Are you serious or joking? I have reviews from some of the top trainers in the United States. Most of what I say has been clinically proven. Are you serious?
This comment has been removed by the author.
DG
Can you post a link to your book?
I haven’t bought the book yet but appreciate others’ reviews even when scathing.
But back to metals, I think the biggest mistake any of us will make is selling too early. In 20 years I’ve only seen markets like this a few times. Hold tight and buy dips!
Dobbs, and you felt compelled to try and embarrass DG publicly. why?
Common decency in the least would be to seek him out on his website and offer your constructive criticism, privately.
Maybe he can do a chapter in his next boomk on schmucks, he already has a subject matter expert, you.
With regard to e-mailing Gary with questions, just about everything is answered b/t the blog comments and nightly reports. It would be good to keep email to a minimum, other than to request Gary cover a topic in his report so he can share with more subs. Anything other than that is an energy drain and unnecessary, IMO.
Hopefully I don’t jinx it, but we have momentum on our side for what I call the “Friday Effect.”
The past 8 Friday’s have been positive gainers for Silver and in many cases huge gains. (ok, there were 2 days that were essentially “flat”, but still a solid trend)
Contrary to some of the posts and analysis today I was very pleased with the results.
First of all, the “raid” came after silver was already up big, bringing it down to “flat” range, still closing over $37 (which in itself was huge). Sure beats a raid coming when it is flat or already down a bit.
I’ll take up days of 6% and down days of 1% any day of the week.
Before I got on board with Gary’s work I had a tendency to always feel silver was “hanging by a thread” and “fragile” and could get taken out at any given time, even though I was riding the long side up. Sort of a “once bitten twice shy” tendency because of a badly mistimed entry when I first got into the game.
Over the past month this is dissipating in fact it is quite the opposite. I truly have confidence that momentum is there to keep going (with pauses).
Thanks, guys, but no need at all to come to my defense The fact that a crank doesn’t like it is of no concern to me. I have trained 22,000 people and have literally hundreds of letters from people saying that it has changed them for the better. I even talked down a suicide once, which was of course very gratifying. I have to admit that when we do the program the attendance is voluntary. I suppose if someone had no desire to change or examine his own motives for behavior, he’d find it threatening and need to trash it. I can’t imagine why such a person would buy it, though. If you are closed why read a book about how to change yourself? Of course he might think he’s already perfect.
Dobbs: What in it was “rubbish.” I can easily defend every sentence in it. I’d love to know what you reject. Boring is up to you, but rubbish sounds like an objective claim. It’s like the guys who yell “Dow 30,000!” with no reasoning or evidence, eh?
Mahalo for your hard work Gary.
And the best part, hotrod, is that it doesn’t even matter if Friday is up or not, longs are going to make a lot of money if they can hold a few weeks. I even doubt I’ll sell all my miners at the end of the C-wave, will probably just do some pruning.
The Book Buy: Amazon carries it. “Freedom from Stress” by David Gamow
OOPs–cute typo–that was for The Book Guy, not Book Buy
I sold my GPL even though I’m sure it will be fine. It only was a 6% position and I moved that $ to SLW. SLW, AGQ and AG are my big three…I want to riding proven winners for the next month or so. No time to waste. Down the road, will revisit GPL after the dreading D wave.
My last remaining IRA is one account I’ve traded aggressively and with good results this year. Up 100% since Jan in Just AGQ, SLW and SLW calls. I sold my SLW stock early today and moved 100% of that capital in May SLW calls. Going for a home run here with a pretty hefty chunk. Taking my shot.
Pima, I can’t tell you how my system works:) I’m not too concerned at all about the action in gold yet as my system’s stop is a bit south of here. I believe the move this past summer started out with a breakout that was initially sold into.Thge system is saying to be patient here, much like Gary is saying also.
Jayhawk, That is just fascinating to me considering last week or so you were ready to throw in the towel and walk away. WOW.
Thanks DG. Looks good. Sort of an Unlimited Power by Tony Robbins book?
Brian-
I was in a horrible mood last week and even though the action was frustrating me, I never said I was selling or hedging anything. I actually added SLV and SLW calls last week along with the GPL position.
I can tell you, once the SPX gets an official weekly swing low in I will feel much more confident with the wind at our backs. I don’t like the odds of having a blow off phase in the face of an overall market crash.
I still think the Japan mess & carry trade may impact things…I decided that the timing could actually work in our scenario fueling a D-wave and harder core market correction last Spring.
Book Guy: Sort of. It’s of course my own style, but the point is we do not appreciate how much our attitudes affect everything we do. The greatest trading psychologist ever (Ed Seykota) said “You always get exactly what you want from the financial markets.” If that is true—and I believe it is— you need to get honest about your attitudes that are holding you back if you are not trading as you’d like to. Many people have no interest or desire to do this and such people should not waste time with Tony Robbins or my book.
Jayhawk, I am just glad you didn’t lose any positions you would have regretted losing!
Cheers
DG
Sounds like my kind of book. I’m looking forward to the read. I’m exactly where I want to be in life. If I weren’t I’d do something about it! That motivates me to do something about it.
I’d just like to comment that this board has some really great people and it is a great place to hang out. I used to read several financial sources a day constantly searching for more. I have found since becoming a sub of Gary’s that I have relaxed and not felt the need to constantly “be on top of it.” I’ve read book after book on a few subjects, investing being one of them and I still want to learn but I don’t feel like I have to, I can do it out of pure pleasure now.
Gary said:
“I can assure you that if gold was at $2000 or $3000 or $4000 the public wouldn’t for a second all of a sudden wake up and say “oh my gosh there must be inflation and it must be the governments fault” “its time for a revolution”
I disagree!! Signs of inflation are currently managed by either:
1) Externalizing or “not our fault” (i.e. saying it’s supply/demand/mid east crisis)
2) Stealth inflation (falsified government statistics, smaller packaging (check out your costco paper towels recently, inferior ingredients (watch what you eat!), lower quality of components or services)
If gold were allowed to rocket up, even the most detached “joesixpack” and “lady gagaed” Mtv drone would be forced to perk up and ask “what is going on”?
The game would be over instantly and there would be revolution!
Gary said:
“During the last bull market I heard the manipulation conspiracy used in the energy markets. Whenever oil went down it was always because some cartel took it down because as everyone knew we were at peak oil and the fundamentals prevented oil from dropping. So if it did then it had to be a managed take down”.
This is indeed an interesting perspective from Gary; I was not following the energy market at the time.
Bottom line—–> I’m middle of road and won’t get caught up in the manipulation theory either. All I care about is pragmatism and try to exit this C-wave effectively, and play the next few A and C waves with the forum here.
Speaking of cycles and human emotions, there is good book “The Fourth Turning” by Neil Strauss which outlines the impact of cycles and generational US history. According to their work, we entered the “winter” or 4 th turning in 2000 onwards- we can expect profound and revolutionary changes soon in the US once a critical marker or event occurs.
(By the way, good luck waiting for that event, I have been waiting 10 years and still waiting…)
Whatever transformation the US undergoes, I agree with Gary that we may not go back to a gold backed system- indeed, it will have to an entirely new paradigm.
Most on this forum will agree that intuitively the status quo in the US does not “feel right”….something is going to have to give.
gary
aren’t you also a conspiracy theorist where you blame QE2 if YOUR analysis for stock market goes wrong? (as opposed to simply accepting that I was DEAD WRONG) I am saying this NOT because I betted money on your analysis but because I know other cycle analyst like Doc and Tim Wood (original man behind cycles quantitative research) who were anticipating the low in stock market the moment you were talking about the EXTREMELY LEFT TRANSLCATED cycle?
I have many thing to say..will post later.
Don,
Gary has said he doesn’t trade the stock market. His bread and butter is PM. If you ended up on the wrong side of a trade its your own fault, own up. Gary has made me 50% since Jan 30 investing in PM and miners. Not too shabby ehh!
Regarding my forum idea.
I didnt think of it as another blog, but rather proper forum with threads as a way to make SMT running easier for Gary, not having more work.
Pros i can see are that certain questions that come up again and again on this “endless” 1 thread blog would be as separate threads on forum. Once question is asked, debated and hopefully answered, thread is there to see for others to find answers without more questions to Gary. It could relieve some of emails sent i guess… dunno what people email.
Certain individuals like vuvvy could post his buy/sell signals in his thread. Alex could discuss his newest junior plays in his own thread, ‘lottery ticket’ discussion, etc… Conspiracists could debate conspiracy on their own and Gary doesnt even need to open that one up 🙂
Con i see is that threads/debates can get out of hand, ‘fights’ can start and unmanageble for Gary to have an overview in the end, overhead with verified registration process against subscription, etc., being more work for him than keeping up current setup of comment blog + emails. Also i guess current public comment blog would be left more to ‘flap in the wind’ and would not act as a great subscription promotion that it is now.
DG, I am about half way through your book, however I can already understand why Dobbs doesn’t understand your work. You have to be able to have an open mind to be able to digest ideas beyond your limited perceptions. His reponse shows he is choosing to block his capability to learn something beyond his own comprehension.
A change in attitude will open many doors and opportunties otherwise closed. …Dobbs review of your book simply spoke for itself. He is incapable at this time of learning new ideas. He is obviously in some pain, however not enough to make any changes in his own perceptions. You must have hit a nerve. Keep up the good work!
Sasa, good idea on eliminating frequest questions to have a link to most common questions. We could just all come up with a list we have seen to help Gary and ourselves to post. It would just be a link for subs. Less of his sub ideas would be divulged also but a leader to getting new subs.
sasa, i think the real problem is the huge and absurd amount of email send to gary, not post on the blog.Why on earth should i sent an email to try to discuss with gary about my personal thought about manipulation?It’s absurd.Mailing to gary just for important and private requests.Nothings else.Ego is a danger for everyone here.IMO
I agree with SB. 🙂
Beksachi, From what I have read, we will just evolve into a world wide global unit of currency. Makes sense, since we are already a global economy. Not right away, but eventually once the policitians fail to find any other way to resolve the differences the world will unite (or most of the world will when it comes to monetary unit of trade).
paul
That question was for Gary and not to his devotee to glorify their god even if he try to wraps the things around..and ehh! read my comment again..i hv not betted on Gary’s market analysis..cos i know he is calling for DOOM since Jan 2011..and he will be right one day .. till then he needs devotees like you and wrapers like QE2 to blame onto something else…
may be its a business tactics or ego induced due to god status
Wow Gary, you have now been categorized: God like status. Keep up the great work! I am impressed by all the adulation you receive, even by those who don’t agree with you. You must be doing something right we can all learn from.
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Gary has so many haters. That’s when you know you are doing something RIGHT. I’m going to get worried when there are no more haters around here.
and i have the exact opposite impression…for one simple query there are immediate replies from devotees touting Gary (so far I can see two of them for one query)…and thats why i take Gary’s analysis not too seriously nowdays..
Its unfortunate for one simple query/question/doubt to the master , Gary’s devotees immediately throwing reply’s assuming that I hate Gary…why should i hate him..he has full right to be wrong..but at the same time he needs to admit it and not wrap it in QE2
Don,
Here is my expectation. I think a daily cycle bottomed on Feb. 24th. I think we are now in a left translated cycle that if it bottoms in the normal duration will end sometime around early May.
Until the market makes a new high my cycle count is not wrong as you would like to suggest.
The market is still clearly making lower lows and lower highs. It’s still in a down trend at this point.
There is no question that QE is influencing stock market cycles. They are stretching far beyond what used to be normal durations. 40-60 days is now the norm when it used to be 30-40 days.
I’m not making excuses I’m just stating a fact.
The way I count cycles I need to see something obvious. I don’t pick a one day decline and decide that constitutes a daily cycle low just because I can make it fit in an expected timing band.
Now the recent correction is deep enough that it looks like an intermediate level correction and if the market does continue higher and make a new high I will certainly mark it as an intermediate low.
I’m just not convinced that the correction is over yet because it would require the last daily cycle to have only run 14 days and I’ve never seen a 14 day cycle.
So you are jumping the gun by a long ways to say that I am wrong on my cycle count at this point. The market hasn’t even broken the pattern of lower lows and lower highs yet.
DG, Read on Amazon the reviews of your book. All excellent. I looked into the book through the Amazon web site and it randomly brought me to a chapter on the benefical effects of meditation. I recently attended a mens Catholic retreat which was conducted by a completely deaf priest out of Rochester. He said meditation changed the way he was able to handle/accept his daily experiences. Being deaf was/is quite a challenge for him especially growing up. One of the most gentle humble and sincere people I’ve ever met. And since he spoke from the heart, nothing rehearsed, he was very articulate which quite frankly I didn’t expect.(Preconceived notions I suppose). All we did was meditate and discuss bible passages for three days. It was very refreshing. I thought it was interesting how us Catholics are apparently huge advocates of this form of prayer.
Don,
I never understand why people feel the need to troll blogs and give their negative opinions. If you disagree, that’s fine. In fact, having a good debate makes for a more robust blog. But if you’re just coming on to try to discredit Gary’s work, then I don’t think people here want to hear it.
Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Gary’s analysis, don’t read it. Find someone who’s analysis that you do like and go there instead. Or try doing your own and see if your hit rate is 100%. I agree with Gary though, it’s premature to make any conclusions. Also, Gary’s always given the disclaimer that he’d stay away from equities right now because QE has distorted the cycles.
And in terms of people elevating Gary to god status, it’s simply people that he’s helped make money in the past coming to his defense. Whether or not he’s always right or wrong, he’s certainly helped alot of people make money, myself included. Again, if you don’t find him helpful, well…go find another source.
Gary does not = god
Buy he has my full admiration any gratitude =)
DG,
Thanks for the discussion about your book, between you and Gallo.
I ordered it this morning. I look forward to reading it. I could use the help.
Tom
If Don wants to be long stocks he should just buy some NUGT instead of messing with the S&P.
jeff, completely agree with you.
TSX-listed Revett Minerals hopes to list its shares on the NYSE Amex in the coming weeks, after receiving approval from the exchange, CEO John Shanahan said on Thursday.
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/silver-miner-revett-to-add-amex-listing-2011-03-25
Its a waiting game now…we will just have to wait for the Dollar to break… This should start on Tuesday. 76.25 should hold.
Why Tuesday for the dollar decline, Aaron?
Eamonn, its just a guess…Im assuming that we wont get much action in gold or silver on Monday due to options expiration. Even if the dollar was to break down on Monday, the effect on the PMs would be controlled.
I read elsewhere that a big hedge fund unloaded some gold yesterday, and that could be responsible for the decline
I’m sure a lot of short term traders unloaded PM positions yesterday to wait and see if the HUI could breakout of the consolidation.
Eamonn thats rubbish. Ive heard that excuse a thousand times. No hedge fund dumps that many contracts at market knowing that it would affect the price by 20 dollars, thats just stupid and careless. As a matter of fact thats against CFTC (a joke) regulations.
Majjor beat downs like yesterday in such a short time frame are common, and can only be achieved my massive dumping of contracts at market price, overwhelming the buy orders. Volume charts on these wiggles are very telling.
Gary
So gold tested the high twice, if we test it again and fail will that mean a sideways consolidation for the summer?
Hi Aaron. Frankly I’m a novice at finance and how these things work. I joined here about a few weeks ago and reading this blog I’m trying to adsorb as much as I can but I am currently overloaded. However, I try to understand and research as much as I can and I am hoping with the passage of time (maybe years) I will be able to “talk to talk”. Its very valuable education
Eamonn, this is a great blog with lots of good info from lots of experienced folks. Good luck with the learning, its a never ending process.
Aaron, actually Eamon is right, but not for conspiracy reasons, hedge funds are rolling contracts and they sold yesterday so they won’t have to stand for delivery and will book profits for the month/quarter, then reestablish next week in the next liquid contract. The cash market ETFs move in sympathy as they are deriviatives.
Jeff,
I wouldn’t make the mistake of thinking some technical rule is going to govern the price of gold.
If the dollar collapses down into it’s three year cycle low then gold is going to rocket higher. It really has no bearing on how many times this or that level gets tested.
I know it’s hard to do but to make the big bucks you simply can’t put too much faith in charts.
AtEase: That’s exactly right. Everyone carries some pain or frustration in some way or another. Some people deny it (“Are you kidding. I’m too macho to have feelings or pain!!”) Those people cannot be helped and the pain will stay until it is painful enough to deal with, or they just live pretending it is not there. Our overwhelming tendency is to blame the situation for our frustration (“If only he would stop doing that I’d be fine.”) The problem with that is you become a slave to that guy and his rude behavior. Your well being is dictated by hiss behavior every day. Wouldn’t it be nice if you could stop minding? Not pretending not to mind, not stuffing the annoyance, but actually having it no longer bother you? Then you can—with a clear mind—decide whether to fight the guy, avoid him or just ignore him, without feeling the compulsion to do it because you just cant stand it. Think of how much more effective you’d be at everything if you could make clear rational decisions instead of reacting. Dobbs is clearly not able to do this and takes comfort in blaming others for things he doesn’t like (“Your book is rubbish!). How does writing that help him other than to vent his own annoyance? You went to a Catholic retreat. Pray for him! Anyway, this is a financial blog. Enough of this…
Thanks, Veronica. (I knew you wouldn’t be able to divulge system details, but was just wondering whether it looks at intraday data or just daily… don’t answer that! Glad to hear it’s still long 🙂
Gary,
Does yesterday’s big intra-day reversal signal any short term weakness in the price of gold and silver or do you ignore moves like these?
I’m hoping for a little morning weakness to add some more mining shares (just 5% of total capital).
PST: Gary trades off the cycles and sentiment. Tape patterns like the reversal are almost always ignored. If a cycle bottom were due soon it might possibly matter a little, but as one is not due it is just noise.
DG: I bought your book, but frankly haven’t looked at it yet. After reading your post above though, I put it in my bag for my upcoming trip right next to my Epictetus!
DG, you sound like you know what you are talking about. Being to ignore and not react to irritating people is an important skill in life
Thanks DG. Still trying to learn as well, so I appreciate the feedback.
Bob, the only place that the price of gold and silver matters is futures. Rolling is common, its never done is a sudden fashion. At tims when you roll, you can see the rpice fluctuate too (depending on your size), yet if the quantity is too large they make sure they space it out. This is careless stuff, and considered market manipulation by the CFTC, and investigations are started (yet never finished, like silver in 2008…its still ongoing!). There are exceptions to the rule though, and thats who the manipulation crew have the beef with.
Don,
Gary calling for DOOM? Where has he said that? I believe YOU are interpreting his calls as DOOM, no? (If stocks head south and you stay invested in the stock market, that would feel like DOOM to you, right?)
Gary’s calls are pretty clear. How you interpret them is your own doing.
(Many well known and successful market analysts have said that the US stock market began a bear market in 2000 that will last 15 to 30 years, so Gary is not alone in his call for stocks to head south again.)
Aaron, I am talking about the futres and if you look at silver on the morning of delivery commitment you see the same waterfall pattern. If you knew people needed to get out wouldn’t you pile on when you see volume or force the issue to make weak hands cover?
I suppose I am a conspiracy theorist, as well, since I believe the Fed’s counterfeiting programs are driving gold price higher 🙂
Seriously, people. There is a big difference between conspiracy and simply analyzing the potential results of people’s behavior.
Easy with those weakness wishes, SB. I got a little excited and added a few (too many?) shares of SLW before I should have. Buying dips is fun and all but lets get on with this orgy Gary has been talking about. I’m here for the party!
Buying on weakness is the way to go, but should be limited to around cycle lows. Once a cycle is off to the races and clearly galloping, buying on weakness normally means “buying higher”, IMO. Buy the bulk and the IT lows and stay put. Sure if there is an unexpected 1-2 day blip, buy it up.
Bob, I know what you are pointing to, yet its a fact that no pattern in markets last forever, these patterns correct themselves over time, because traders see the pattern and beat it out by trading it. The only time these patterns dont change is when a trader is fundamentally blocked from participating, and that block in this case is position size.
It seems to me that if you replace Gary’s ‘big money’ with ‘JPM’, then you can technically claim that Gary believes in manipulation, and thus a tin foil hat gold bug 😉
PS. I disagree that short term manipulations have no long term effects. Technical damage can sway money away thus altering the intensity of the move.
No worries, Hippie. Getting paid today or two weeks from now, it’s all fine by me. 🙂
Big money doesn’t trade based on charts. The only money getting “knocked out” by meaningless technicals are emotional retail traders.
case in point the reversal candle may very well turn out to be nothing. Money that’s driven by value or cycles or sentiment will buy the dip.
Retail traders trying to trade base don charts will lose their shares to smart money.
I think there is a difference between “Big Money” and “manipulation.” Manipulation is a concerted, over-time, conscious process of changing the price of an item for the sake of changing the price. Heck, I’ve manipulated—when I clean up the offering on a stock two or three times in a row to see if I can get it running—but that is not over time. If Big Money gets together and says “Hey, let’s keep this price down by shorting” and they do this often and over time I’d call that manipulation. Anything else is just them doing their thing. Of course they affect prices but that’s not conscious manipulation over time. One could argue the Fed is manipulating the stock market to keep it up, but they are not buying and selling. They are juts providing liquidity. JPM would have to be fools to be “manipulating” silver prices because silver has skyrocketed and they’d be broke with their “brilliant” strategy by now.
Don
I don,t think anyone here follows blindly and you are correct Gary gets things wrong.
He also gets things right and builds in protection when he is wrong for his subs. The basic plan is working and the plan is protected. And there is still risk! Any idiot knows that.
Frankly I am here to make money and welcome contrarian views backed with debate to keep everyone on their toes. Gary and the people here are helping me make a s**t pile of money and with some protection built in.
Please Just read and debate as senseless criticism with no
pay day is just white noise and we take the eye off the ball. If you have more to offer than Gary uses qe2 as an excuse then get stuck in.
regarding DON
I read your original question (since it got so much attention). I am thinking he initially wasnt really trying to attack Gary , until everyone else came to garys defense.
If you re-read the post “GET OUT”, warning everyone that your parent retirement fund should be pulled out of the markets and so on , one could see that as a ‘doom’ call, while another views it as a strong recommendation.
THEN , I think Don must be a subscriber, because he was referring to what Gary said in last nights post…that the feds QE2 is affecting cycles.
So Dons origional post was somewhat like….Gary, you dont believe in ‘Gold market manipulation’, until QE2 affects your cycle timing (which was mentioned in the report last night).
I’m going to be ‘devils advocate’ here- I read Dons question as trying to tell Gary…”if you believe the fed QE2 affects your cycle count, then why not believe manipulation in Gold market.
Right or wrong, I saw it as less ‘attacking’ , until he was criticized…then he got a bit edgy. Just my thoughts…I COULD BE WRONG-but I origionally read it that way ,since earlier discussion was ‘Gold market manipulation’.
Please dont shoot the messenger (me) 🙂
Aaron, I agree with you on short term vs long term. I was focussed on the beat downs.
WHOA!!
Did I say Gary said get your parents retirement out…SORRY!! I meant thats what everyone posted they did!
SORRY GARY!
Now shoot the messenger, he spoke a falsehood…sorry again
Is that a swing low on the dollar?
Nice swing low on the 30 minute silver chart. Maybe we can make a run back up for $38.
Daily/Weekly close over $38 would be ginormous.
Gary, what do you see as the place for charts in your analysis? And how do you get a read on sentiment?
Alex-
Cup and Handle on the SLW 60 minute chart? Target 54.
I believe a swing low means nothing unless it is during the tim ing band for a cycle low. There are swing lows every week in items that are meaningless. When trying to spot a cycle bottom the SL is a good way of saying “That was it. Time to buy”
Charts are last in the chain. I start with the big picture, secular bull market. I only want to trade in the direction of the secular trend.
Then I determine where we are in the intermediate cycle. Then the daily cycle. I confirm with sentiment.
Finally I use charts to try and time entries or exits if it’s getting late in an intermediate cycle. Mostly by focusing on swings once we are in the timing band for a turn.
I will use chart patterns and such if they confirm the big picture, cycles and sentiment.
I would never go against those three major tools based on anything as insignificant as a possible reversal candle or vague wedge pattern etc.
Jay
what time frame? I think I do see it…is it like a 10 day hourly
DG,
I have a question for you ( and whoever Alex or Poly or others) …
When time comes and the stupid stock market will be too high for its sake, would you advice to sell futures or buy SDS Etfs?
Thanks for your advice…
Gary,
I like your approach re. big picture followed by a narrower view..That is great to keep you sane and avoid the daily wiggles…I am learning…Even if like Peter yesterday, I am poorer than I was last autumn because I shorted the stock market!!!
Jayhawk
Also in my past experience with the cup/handle pattern , the volume on the handle needs to dry up (less sellers) and then, when it breaks above the cup, it needs much larger volume to fully reach the price projection.
If volume out of that handle is weak, it comes straight back down and retests the cup or falls apart( then the victim says, “those cup/handle formations arent really reliable 🙂
BTW even if the market can make a new high I would still suggest one get money out of general stock funds in 401K’s. We’ve had an almost 100% rally in two years. The stock market is still in a secular bear market.
The Fed’s policies are going to create bigger problems. It’s just not possible to cure a problem of too much dept and too much consumption with more debt and more spending.
Just like the last attempt failed miserably so will this one.
So one has to ask themselves how much more upside potential is there? Probably not enough to warrant the risk of getting caught in the next leg down when the secular bear returns. Considering that the next 4 year cycle low is coming due next year and most bear markets tend to last about a year and a half to two years. It’s now dangerous to stay in the stock market.
Plus we have a yearly cycle low coming due for stocks soon.
Sophia
I will just say this…for me PERSONALLY , its sds or dxd or QID , because I have never shorted with great success.
I have what my experience tells me are my strengths and my weaknesses, and even though I have tried to get better at my weaknesses-I prefer to actually do as Gary just said
Find a bullish SECTOR , then I research Equities in that sector , and so on.
As for shorting , Thats my weakness 🙂
DG shorts frequently, so he can help you see things better there 🙂
Sophia: Alex got me to buy juniors and i will get him to learn how to short! There are advantages to each, so it really becomes a question of what you are comfortable with. I have been shorting for many years so it feels no different to me than going long (the math is different, but I mean comfort level, analysis, etc.) If you short you need to be very disciplined because the math is such that losses get bigger and bigger. On the long side a $10 stock dropping to $5 means that an additional 50% loss costs you only $2.50, and so on. I sue very tight stops and have spent my whole life trying to prefect entry points. But that’s just my personal style. (BTW I just shorted FCX and my stops is 20¢ away).
Thanks Gary, Alex and DG for your advice…I made a lot of mistakes in the last 6 months and I need to have a different approach…
I guess that this is called the learning curve 🙂
But Gary, I am with you, the stock market is brewing something nasty and nobody wants to be caught long on this one…
Jayhawk
That would be beautiful 54 on SLW. How long till then? Do you have a guesstimate?
So they’re projecting prices & times now? Fantastic.
DG, I just read the first 30 pages of your book and see I’m going to like it. BTW, are you familiar with Epictetus? If not, you might want to check the old man out – I think you’ll have a lot in common.
CMT: Yes, I majored in philosophy so studied all those dead guys. If memory serves he was a little heavy on discipline. If you can remove the desire for the bad habit it doesn’t take discipline to resist it—you just don’t want to do it any more! My stuff works on changing attitudes less than will power. (you need discipline to practice what is in the book, however!)
Another ho-hum day of sideways trading..
It will only make the breakout more powerful, like a coiled spring..
Hagarty-
I don’t even know if it’s valid or not, but assuming our targets on silver I could see SLW hit the 60’s by the end of this cycle.
Jayhawk
Daily cycle or do you mean c wave?
End of the intermediate with silver hitting 50 I would imagine SLW hits 60’s
DG, actually Epictetus was all about controlling your desires. What you wrote to BookGuy at 9:22 last night sounded a lot like Epictetus. That’s what made me mention it.
In any event, I’ll be reading your book while lying on the beach next week and NOT watching the markets wiggle!
I have a question for the more experienced folk, if they would indulge me.
How hard will it be to make money with Gary when the c-wave is over?
Where’s the volume? I don’t see much volume in anything – SLV,GLD, SLW, the general stock market. Is everybody tapped out waiting for some magical level to hit, then BUY BUY BUY. It’s no wonder things go up in the morning and then they fade fade fade, because there is no volume. Until further notice, the low-volume lovefest continues…
coolkevs – that has been the hallmark of the majority of this up move. QE has changed many of the parameters most are used to.
A top in silver?
Just FYI for anyone interested.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty032511.html
CMT: Yes, but my thought is to get at the root rather than controlling your behavior. How do you control a desire? You control the action the desire prompts, not the desire itself. If you get rid of the desire the action fades away. For example, If you learn not to even mind taking losses, you can easily keep them small. If you hate being wrong and taking losses you’ll hang in therewith a bad trade hoping it will all work out.
Anyone have any familiarity or experience with JS Kim at Smartknowledgeu??? No way No How I am giving up Gary (or relying on someone else) but someone brought his name up to me and I do not know too much– (Except he has been a pretty big gold/Silver Bull)
Thanks to anyone in advance!
Not if the dollar continues down into the three year cycle low. It’s the same mistake all the technicians are making.
Now if the dollar cycle were to stretch out to next fall then yes we might have a top although it is pretty early in the intermediate cycle for a top even if this were going to stretch into the fall.
Really the only way to get a top in PM at this point is for this to be the three year cycle low right here.
Sure doesn’t seem like the kind of panic that accompanies three year cycle lows to me or the irrational complacency that accompanies C-wave tops.
Movak: That article seems a bit silly. There is not one piece of evidence in it other than the fact that silver has already rallied a lot. He claims silver is moving from strong hands to weak hands. How does he know that? It’s pure puffery, IMO. He may even be right, let’s say, but he sure doesn’t say why in any convincing way.
Well, he does say he could be a couple dollars off. That is significant.
EAMONN
I would say the answer to your question really depends on how things play out, what kind of damage the markets have or are going through , is there any recovery, do yoou short markets or not,etc.
Gold will have an A wave after the D wave, but they tend to be more tame, unless that changes because we’re getting further along in the P.M.Bull.
I would say it’ll take effort & research – and NOT as easy as it has been now.
Yes we have all gotten pretty spoiled by this C-wave. Once this is over it’s definitely going to be tougher to make money for a while.
OK, thanks Alex. Just thinking for the near future
Still sniffing around the short side. Bought some EPV (short Europe) at 49.01. Keeps me amused and prevents me from selling any PM stuff! I keep probing and one day soon I will start hitting, add on bounces, and hopefully make some real money.
Demark Update from Kevin Depew at Minyanville:
Silver is on bar 12 of 13 of a WEEKLY sell signal that will record next week. This will be valid for 12 bars, or 12 weeks ~ 3 months. So, from April to June.
Gold is on bar 11 of 13 sell signal. It has also met a TD Propulsion Up target of 1445 – an exhaustion level.
US Dollar – not much has changed – MONTHLY on bar 12 but has been in deferral since September 2009, waiting for that 72.5 level. QUARTERLY buy has already recorded. WEEKLY we are on bar 9 of 13 of a buy signal and need to meet the TD Propulsion down target of 74.90. Depew says, “we are getting much, much closer to a major long-term buy signal for the US dollar”
I’d say you are going to wind up Gary with that stuff, coolkevs !!
Dollar is on a tear today, especially in the last hour. Fed announced QE3 is unlikely (this may have something to do with it, eh?)
The steep downtrend line from 3/15 and 3/16 was busted to the upside in the early morning of 3/24. longer downtrend line beginning at the high on Jan 10 crosses 76.80 later today. The dollar breaking thru that would suggest the low of 3/22 could hold for a while, that the dollar would continue heading higher.
F.W.I.W.
A lot of technicians are pointing to the large reversal candle on Large volume yesterday as indicating a ‘top’ here-
but if you look at SLV or SIVR etc in early Nov, there was a HUGE , High volume reversal and they just went down for a couple days and tagged the 20sma. It was ‘top’ calling then too, but higher in Dec.
Time will tell as always, but the 20sma is a buying gift if it happens
On a wkly chart, it hardly shows up.
That 321 article is unbelievably poor analysis.
Silver is “looking toppy” is a good as it gets. Not even a discussion of what looking toppy actually means.
Of course weak hands are buying silver at the moment. Every buy is a weak hand at first.
He states that the next move in silver is down, but doesn’t even mention gold, which is far from looking toppy. Gold is building a huge 6 month consolidation base from which it is now looking like breaking out of.
There is no way silver is going to collapse while Gold is consolidating or moving higher.
All dips in silver have been bought aggressively and on good volume.
I suggest anyone who thinks silver is “looking toppy” check out Trader Dan for some proper analysis:
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
PMs plunging….
From a conspiratorial angle, it seems the dollar is on the edge of the abyss and news keeps popping up (fed announcements, Euro debt problems, more bad news about Japan) just before it plunges to buoy the dollar and give it a bit more life – or time for “them” – the elite, smart money, whatever you like – time and liquidity to build positions.
Miyagi: Gold down three dollar and silver up is not really plunging. We are all getting spoiled!
Here we go again. Major downwards pressure starting on the exact same minute as yeasterday: 1:30 sharp. Funny how all profit takers synchronize their watches. Meeting some resistance at 37. Let’s see if it can hold up.
Good point DG albeit the descent rate generated neagtive Gs.
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Well, my model is receiving final confirmation of an intermediate equity low having been set. I know a new high is a formality of the burrito bet, but I now have the 16th labeled as an intermediate low.
Doc: I agree. The thrust out of the bottom has a number of historical comparisons all of which indicate an intermediate bottom. I suspect we will test that bottom in some fashion but that the test will be successful. Back-to-back gaps from oversold conditions are rare but telling.
1412 – 1414 is possible on on April gold futures. That’s just a simple A = C calculation. That is the if the current drop ends up being the same length as yesterday’s drop (25 points from high of day to later afternoon low), then the current drop should bottom around 1413.
Large-range rollovers in SLV/GLD 2 days in a row?? This can’t be good, my friends…never mind, it’s a major fakeout for next week 🙂 Or maybe the low volume is allowing the big boys to push the metal toys around…
If this follows yesterday’s action then yes, around 1415$ will be reached.
What’s unfortunate about these plunges is that they generate a lot of negative commentary which then arguably lead to more weakness. One blog I follow called blog.afraidtotrade.com is just one example I’ve seen since yesterday’s drop.
Looks like gold rollover. Silver still positive.
Dollar gaining ground, Gary what’s your upside target that you would expect the dollar to stall out?
We can always hope that we just made the low and we’re done. That would make the current drop a little more than 62 percent of yesterday’s drop, and that’s a common relationship for waves A and C of and ABC correction (not to be confused with Gary’s ABCD gold wave terminology)
Hey, I thought the miners were supposed to go straight up 4-5% every day?
No worries, Everything is OK.
Silver gap fill
This move in the dollar looks very similar to the bear flag on the 7th. Here’s hoping we get the large move down on Monday.
I wouldn’t have any idea how to pick a target for the dollar. Once we get another swing that would be the next chance for a continuation of the downtrend.
Meanwhile, on another channel, the USD is strengthening since the Euro is now the ugly duckling du jour. I guess Portugal is falling…
so….do we have a swing low on the dollar?
the $USD isn’t paying attention to cycle theory …
Gary,
What’s your upper limit on this dollar rally that would cause you to consider the possibility that the 3/22 low was a significant low (IT low?) and that the dollar will continue heading higher for some time, weeks maybe?
We had a swing low on the dollar three days ago. That doesn’t guarantee that we just saw a very shortened daily cycle though.
The odds are it is just a bounce to relieve short term oversold conditions before the next push down.
I think this is what did it “Fed’s Plosser: Funds rate should hit 2.5% in year”. If they really start raising interest rates, is that a game-changer for PMs?
The first warning would be a reversal of the pattern of lower lows and lower highs.
Gary,
What about a possibility of new euro crisis?
$USD just jumped out (presumably because of the Portugal news). Woudn’t the possible euro crash stop the dollar slide??
DG,
Just saw your comment re sniffing short side. So you’re not convinced the stock rally is for real, not convinced SPX will make new highs?
Well…1420 (ish) on Gold and 76.25 on the USD have been reached… this move has my attention if we dont reverse here
What about another euro crisis pushing gold up along with the dollar? Can’t remember the exact timing but how did gold perform during the Greek crisis. I seem to recall seeing news of bullion dealers running out during that time period.
This guessing game about the currencies goes to the heart of the whole discussion of what’s real value. Everything is always worth something in relation to something else. In the case of the dollar index, the most important other things are the Euro, the Pound Sterling and the Yen, with the Euro overweighted if I’m not mistaken. So the dollar can be worthless – it’ll still rise if the Euro is even more worthless.
OK Here is a plan for those of you that are starting to freak out and don’t have the discipline to let your stops work.
You can take profits right here right now. BUT you need to have a plan to re-enter.
Here is one plan. Buy back if and when the HUI breaks out of the triangle consolidation OR when gold tags the 10 DMA and then completes a swing low.
You will protect profits and potentially be able to re-enter after the short term weakness passes. The downside is that you will re-enter higher if the HUI breaks the trend line before the test and swing. So you will possibly be giving up some profit potential.
You know AGQ and SLW really didn’t move down while silver was down 40 cents…. that has to be good.
Later everybody, I’m going to get my winning Mega million Lottery ticket.
I think I better go long USD before the train leaves the station. Thoughts?
I kid, I kid.
I think the concerns about no more QE are just ridiculous.Make no mistake about it, QE3 in some form, overt or disguised, will happen.There is no choice for the Fed–
Careful. Dollar back above THE LINE. Could see mid-80’s on the dxy by june
Gold & Silver down.
But, juniors hold well.
Is it bottomed and good sign for Mon?
Alex,
Your post re Don is a good one, very logical. Thanks.
Don,
Please stick around and ask questions. We all learn from Gary’s (and other commenter’s) replies to those questions.
Why even post a plan, we’re NOT EVEN DOWN on a daily chart and at 30 yr highs. We’re down 3% from an intra-day spike.
I know it’s for people that get freaked out, but seriously!
Robert, I think the fundamental problem is not whether we have QE3 (or 4 or infinity) or not. It’s simply that we’re drowning in debt – like much of the rest of the world. Debt that can’t be repaid absent a significant amount of inflation/currency devaluation.
If the Fed is abolished tomorrow, the US still can’t service it’s debt at a “market” interest rate.
Mark Faber weighs in:
3.25.2011
We Could See A Rebound In The US Dollar And Weakness In Commodities
I think what we could see in the next few months a rebound of the U.S. Dollar, weakness in asset markets, correction in commodities, and maybe a rebound in U.S. bonds. We live in very volatile times; a correction could be 10%, 20%. I would on any weakness accumulate gold. – in WallStreetPit
Poly
I agree. A bit scary, and disappointing, but no big deal when put in perspective.
Gary,
I reread what you wrote in yesterday’s report about the 10 day DMA tests.
That’s all.
No way I’m selling anything in an attempt to sidestep a possible few day decline in metals.
I’ll just hang tight and buy more if the dip occurs (unless stopped out, but my stops are way below Gary’s)
Hello all, my first post…..but have lurked to learn for a few months and now feel I can ask intelligent questions. I’ve hesitated to ask many questions but have determined the only bad question is the one not asked……so here goes.
I am invested with a huge percentage of my portfolio in the thesis of the dollar-driven collapse and resulting expectation of a PM rise. It is interesting that the dollar rise has started at exactly the same time on two consecutive days.
Since the rise in PMs is predicated on the fall of the dollar, should we be worried here? I’d say yes but only if this rise breaks a descending trendline at above 76.60 or thereabouts. If this is dollar driven….if we live by the fall of the dollar, we should expect to fall by the rise of the dollar.
People have too much size for their risk tolerance if they’re nervous about a day like today.
Trust me, Everything is OK, and not just with the metals, but the economy too. Just keeps getting better all the time! 🙂
Former,
If you are a sub then you know where the stops are. If those get hit it means something else is going on and it’s time to step back.
Everything else is just guessing.
To Anyone,
What is the highest silver or gold have stretched above their 50DMA during a C-wave.
I know this has been gone over before, just don’t recall. Thanks.
Also I know that is not 100% credible by any means, just trying to get a better picture.
DG,
When I started reading this blog last July I thought you might be Dennis Gartman 🙂
Gold has tagged the 10 DMA. So maybe that will hold this drop.
formerAG,
More than most here, I don’t care one iota about the dollar index as it’s measured in other flawed paper currencies.
Metals are going higher while paper confetti will fluctuate between relatively stronger or weaker vs other fiat, not metals. Sure, I’d prefer to have a falling dollar at our back, but we’ve already seen the USD and metals go in the same direction many times.
Metals and miners are the only place to be, IMO, and more people realize this every day.
PC,
Where do you get the chart for the gold/ma?
Don’t see why everyone is freaking out? I mean nothing goes up EVERY SINGLE DAY. Man, Gary, you sure have some hard subscribers to please. I feel for ya.
SB,
100% right about size. A little 2% pullback is NO REASON to freak unless you’re playing with leverage and don’t know how to accept it!
Otherwise, we’re not far from all time highs on AGQ, SIL, SLW and GDXJ.
I’m staying long and looking to add, long after you fellas stop out. They can bury me with my miners if need be.
Pima: from last string—I am not convinced we make new highs, but no matter. We should test the lows and VGK shows up on my short screen. FCX was my own tape reading and no system to speak of. If we test the lows these will both get hit. At that point I can cover or hold until break even. Right now i am nicely ahead on both so my break even stop is in place. You can see how the way I trade has entry points as a key. If you keep placing trades and don’t lose, good things will happen. You lose 20¢ a few times but make a dollar when you get one. Small size until I get actually bearish, and then the first trade will be large and the add-ons as well when the tape tells me I am right. If/ when…
No way I’ll convert back to confetti, unless it’s boatloads and at the end of the C-wave. Even then I’m not too excited about a big bank account in doll hairs.
Regarding the rates rising to 2.5% does anyone really think that this is possible? That is a huge rise in rates in one year. 225bps?? That would crush the bond market, crush the Feds holding, make it much more difficult for the government to service it’s debt burden, most likely end any hopes of a recovery in real estate and probably derail any chance of an economic recovery as well. With real inflation rates you can make the case that rates should be that high but I don’t think Bernanke wants to take the blame for tanking this so called “recovery”. He would rather let evil speculators take the fall. There is a chance that rates will be raised but probably not until the fall and I certainly wouldn’t expect rates to be anywhere near 2.5% within 12 months.
Thanks, DG.
Thank you Gary and Shalom. I am a sub, but need reassurance by the pros in this group, as I have almost ALL of my retirement money in this plan. I will stick to the plan and not act unless the stops are taken out.
To all those who got nervous, this view might help. If you go back to a few options expiration dates, you will notice that a beat down in the metals begins a few days in advance, then on the day of, it rises to the best price for the banks to have the least effect. That price this time around is 1430-1440, so Monday is almost a sure up day 😉
A long time ago, the beatdown would come on the day of options expiration, but too many traders caught on and started playing the same game… the rules needed to be changed, and changed they have.
We shall see what develops.
PowerC: Really? Gartman? That’s a mind-bender. Thanks for sharing.
Never thought I’d say this, but Bernanke is right. (That’s Shalom Bernanke here on the blog). The dollar is losing value in absolute terms even as it momentarily is gaining against other overprinted currencies.
EXK filled a gap, bounce up off of the 20 sma
formerAG: One other thing to consider—you need to picture a decline and imagine how you will feel. It’s fine to say “I will stick with the plan” but when the pressure hits and you imagine getting wiped out do you freak out and sell? If so, you are too heavy. If not, you will be fine. How will you feel if the stops are hit? Lower confidence in the game plan ought to result in smaller positions sizing so you don’t panic. If you have your entire retirement savings at stake it may interfere with keeping a cool head. Only you can answer those questions.
It is a common misconception that metals can’t go higher in a rising rate environment. In actuality, it’s when rates start higher that metals really get into gear on the upside.
We’re not there yet, and any talk from the criminal Fed is nothing but an attempt to contain commodity prices. They have to address rocketing prices of commods to act like they’re on top of the problem, but they will ALWAYS debase paper currencies, it’s just a matter of how quickly.
Long before the 2008-09 credit swoon, the dollar was being printed into oblivion. It’s just events like 2008 that remind everybody of the scam, a sort of generational change in how we view things.
How could anybody believe anything the Fed says? It’s ridiculous.
Aaron, you’re right. Scary little beat downs happen ALL the time, especially around expiration. Then they come ROARING back. That’s why I believe selling now and waiting for the breakout is just throwing away good money and losing a good hand.
This comment has been removed by the author.
i’ve been privy to larry williams 2011 forecast if anyone is interested in his view for the remainder of the year. Im not the kind of person who is willing to share the soft copy out of respect of his work but i would be willing to answer any questions.
I feel bad for anybody that gets juked out of their metals into declines, but will take the shares if they insist.
Re: SB’s last post:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/observations-correlation-between-gold-price-and-rates-or-complete-lack-thereof
GLD ma20 138.66 todays low 138.66 in stockcharts. ma10 138.37 !!
From Dan Norcini-just more manipulation by the Fed
“It is no secret to those attuned to market action that the US Dollar’s technical chart picture is horrendous. It had broken through a critical support level near 77 on the USDX last week and had further descended down towards the tremendously important 75 level. No matter what appeared to be happening in the world, the US Dollar could not get much if any of a safe haven bounce.
Currency traders had been moving to the Swiss Franc as their choice of a safe haven. The Aussie has been making new highs and the Canadian Dollar has been very strong as well.
Now, it is also obvious that the US would dearly love to see the Dollar stay weak to help it deal with its massive debt load but the ugly truth is that the Dollar was on course for a major crisis if it violated the 75 level.
Enter the Fed officials today and yesterday. Apparently the strategy was to get several of the FOMC governors to hit the airwaves talking about ending the QE program. Since it is QE that has been partly responsible for Dollar weakness – along with the abysmal fiscal condition of the nation – something had to be done to prevent a Dollar crash. This is the reason we are getting a sudden rash of Fed officials looking for microphones and venues to talk about ending QE.
Result? Up goes the Dollar and down goes the precious metals market. Coincidence? I hardly think so. If you understand what I wrote earlier this week explaining the antagonism of Western Central Bankers against gold, then you can easily understand that its rise to a new all time high is testifying against the steady debauchment of the US currency by the Federal Reserve.
As a kicker, they also manage to further knock down the Japanese Yen saving themselves and the rest of their pals at the G7 from having to actually pay to undergo another round of currency intervention.
You have just witnessed a shrewdly hidden round of verbal intervention camoflauged as normal policy discussions.
PIMA
Yeah, thanks.I read it and thought one thing, then saw his feedback and saw that others saw it another way, so figured I’d just mention it. Sometimes in disagreements , “different eyes see different things”
DG,
Good advice. I can handle volatility….and can envision myself hanging on if we approach the stops and that is because of the logic of Gary’s plan and the following Gary has here. There is a very smart core group of leading subs like you, Shalom, Alex, Poly, Pima, and others that give me even more confidence to stick with the plan. I might brown out my underwear but think I could hold out and ride this bronco till the pot of gold is achieved.
Sofar this is Just a Backtest of a Lower Channel & the Old Pivot High @ $216
http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/470e97b2-5cba-45d0-bc20-16abb2de9a16
Gold hit the 20 DMA and held. maybe that’s all she wrote for the dip? I have not added yet but will at the 10 DMA, swing low be damned! (Unless I chicken out…)
fomerAG,
Don’t worry about your underwear, you’ll be able to buy plenty of new ones if you can stay on the bull.
Nice chart Gann. Thanks.
Read today’s charleshughsmith(dot)blogspot(dot)com article – A Contrarian Take on the Dollar’s Demise. I think I’m going to start investing in bat guano 🙂
I’m starting my weekend early, so getting out of here. Take care, good luck, and stay long metals if you like money.
Have a good weekend, and don’t freak if we open lower Monday. 🙂
Nice chart Gann360.
Actually, I just realized that I got a super strong deja vu from way back in time. I was 10 years old when Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard in 1971. I remember the major headlines of the seventies:
– War in the Middle east: check
– Rising oil prices: check
– Rampant inflation: check
– Gold prices soaring: check
– Silver going ballistic: check
Just waiting for fuel rationing and government price controls like we had back then. Oh, and big anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Thx DG….As long as that Lower Channel Holds Support .i’m Good,
Wow Gann ,
That looked like a shake out the way you had that charted
DG
I gotta tell ya , picturing you wearing browned out underwear riding a bull is kind of a messy sight that I dont need, thank you 🙂
MrMiyagi,
I use TOS for trading, they’ve got a great charting package.
You might be able to download their desktop trading application even if you don’t have an account with them, so you can use it for “paper trading”. A bit of a learning curve to get familiar with their platform, but I do like their charts.
I’m also out for the afternoon, so have a great weekend all!
Thanks Pima,
For the 10/20DMA, what timeframe setting should be looked; 1,3 or 6 month?
COT report out at 3:30. Sometimes there is strength after it is released. We’ll see…..
Hey Alex! I didn’t say that! FormerAG said it about himself!
and let’s see if traders want to go home for the weekend with a fist full of contracts.
Ok, bye now…..
UR Right DG
My apologies!
PS. a rise in the price of gold in access (globex) is usually a good sign of whats to come the next day.
Im off to Mexico for the weekend, everyone have a great and relaxing weekend! we shall be victorious!
What is wrong with me today??The pain meds for the back, I guess.
Bought some more EXK when it bounced off of the 20sma, hope my vision wasnt blurred 🙂
I just got in for the day! Glad I missed the freaking out on here.
Shalom, I’m with you on the confetti – I fail to understand people who see PMs as too risky and who freak out at the slightest daily wiggle. I’d rather own something buried deep in the ground than that worthless green crap any deay of the week, or year for that matter. The dollar can go up all it wants with respect to other confetti – utterly meaningless. Have a good weekend all!
VGK starting to move on the downside now. FCX too, but not as much.
Hag, I just bought mine. I won some a few weeks ago so I’m busy giving it back. My guidelines are over 100 mm buy 10, over 200 mm buy 20, etc.
I don’t understand the panic and frustration every time we are not +2% per day. It’s like having KK pre flop and worried the other guys got AA all the time
Our hand is strong and we should be more confident about it IMHO 🙂
Anybody that didn’t get diamonds last time around, MDM’s volume is starting to swell up.
Link to a FOX BUSINESS NEWS clip talking about SILVER.
Masses ready to enter!??!
http://preciousmetalsnews.blogspot.com/2011/03/silver-vs-stocks.html
Bek, Thx for the share on Fox news.
More for our side of things 🙂
As a strong side point-
This is a chart of the C.O.T. report last week ( they come out Friday, but are recorded as of Tuesday)…
Notice that the Smart Money shorts LAST WEEK were almost the same as JULY low of 2010 and our recent Jan low 2011!
This Tuesday they may have even reached that same low #. That usually has strong Bullish implications.
I will not be on this blog often or at all nxt wk most likely, unless I read and poet early morning,I will be on an Island…Enjoy your weekend/week everyone!
http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png
Gary, we are not +2% today. Are we still ok?
Very funny, oa92000 !!!
Clarkatroid – nice analogy. The similarities between playing poker and trading the markets are well documented.
Get the odds on your side and master your own emotions of greed and fear.
Hey the day isn’t over yet. Give it time.
fwiw, an Elliot Wave Theory guy from realmoney on silver: just so you know how the enemy is thinking. Just take note, he has no position despite his outlook.
=====================
Ken Goldberg
Silver sets up surprise
3/25/2011 1:26 PM EDT
EWT points to a close below 37 as problematic for silver. 31 +/-2 will be immediatly focused upon in the following 3-5 days following such a close, followed by 25 +/-2 within the following 3-5 days after that. This lower support zone should provide a multi week bounce, back up toward 34 +/-2.
Silver has gone parabolic, which, as we’ve highlighted with multiple examples in the past year, suggests a full round trip back to the origin of the parabola, once the blow off concludes. The origin appears to be around 20 +/-2.
Position: na
Jonas,
They never actually rationed gas. Lots of stations ran out, and they said they *might* ration, but it never came to pass.
Price controls, yet — the wage and price freeze, which was widely ignored.
I’m really starting to understand why any “perfect” set up, even if spoon fed to people takes so long to be compromised by the market. The level of fear, greed and even normal market moves shakes so many people out robbing them of the full potential of any trade.
Just amazing to watch in real time!
Ben, didn’t they do odd / even gas rationing using either license plate numbers or drivers license numbers. Seems to me they did.
MDM is very interesting. Not for right now, but for the bottom of the D-wave.
Thanks, Brian
The dollar is going up. Right.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/imf-prepares-threat-international-monetary-system
Clark
I have to wonder, if we had a honest show of hands, if the ones freaking out are the ones over leveraged.my hand is up. But my stops are good and I’m flat on my leverage
And I have a core
I will not get crushed
for those who need their hand held through this “pullback”…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzyXn8t0plM&feature=player_embedded
reasons to still be long in silver.
At ease yes they did
n1tro , The only thing that put a panic in me, was Gary was saying sell if you feel you need too. But I held as my accounts are fine and stops on stocks in place.
Aaron you said…
To all those who got nervous, this view might help.
Thanks a lot for that. Not that I was going anywhere, but it did help.
Alex,
Have a great time. Take care of the back. We’ll hold down the fort while you’re gone. Catch some rays for us.
I said if you were freaking out and didn’t have the discipline to just let your stops work here is a plan to take profits and a plan to get back in.
No where did I say one should sell. If that was the case I would post it on the website to sell.
Kerry is fine and holding(no freaks),lol!
Alex have a great trip and I shall miss your trading knowledge and insight.
I’ve had a sell short on stop order in all day just below yesterday’s low on SLV. It’s too late in the day for the trade, now, so I’ve canceled it.
One of the real benefits of call options is the ability to short the common against them. Most times you can cover the short for the profit and never have to use the option.
It seems that the “fear” or “panic” that i have witnessed here today is indicative of short term trading activity. I thought Garys philosophy was to ride out any blips and catch the big wave. What is it that some people are failing to understand. This is not a place for traders but investors.
MrMiyagi,
First, I made a mistake in looking at my chart. What I saw was the 20 DMA that got tagged today. Gold came very close to tagging the 10 day, but missed it by about $1.80.
Second, I’m not sure I understand your question. If you want the daily moving average, you have to be looking at a daily chart.
You know you can also get this from stock charts, probably with a lot less hassle than downloading the TOS app and learning how to use it. But if you want to use other charting tools, TOS has a very complete package.
I bought Silver below $36.90 today, who would want to sell right now? That is stupid.
Alex,
Thanks a bazillion for the COT chart – it was even updated for today.
Doesn’t look too exciting, not that many big changes which is weird considering the volume and volatility late last week and early this week.
Rodney
@Alex
Alex and COT movements by commercials should be viewed within the context of the bigger picture, sure extreme readings are often good point of entry but you should also watch for low open interest if going long and high open interest if going short, cheers.
Pressure,
You’re right. But I think some of us at times may try to anticipate what’s coming. I don’t like the surge in the dollar today even though it has not yet broken the major downtrend line. Because Gary’s analysis has focused on the dollar, especially the upcoming 3 year cycle low as being the primary driver for the C wave, when the dollar starts looking like it just may continue higher here, then some of us start to wonder whether/when to start reducing position size by taking partial profits.
So far the drop in gold and silver would not have me all that concerned. It’s the strength in the dollar that bothers me.
PC,
Figured it out, thanks.
Why would any body be freaking out at this point? We are looking at perfectly normal and likely very healthy consolidation near highs. A bear flag on the dollar, and a bull flag developing in the PMs. Man, if someone’s having trouble with this action, the PMs are likely not the place to put a huge stake.
Go a littlw lighter and ride out the downdays.
Just piping in from the lovely Klamath mountains.
@Pima
I think that you have valid concerns regarding the dollar, but then it come backs to the short terms vs the long term and everyones own individual risk appetite, i think the best approach is to just hold and use any opportunities like this to buy the dips. Even regarding the COT i am beginning to become skeptical after they change their reporting format i think last year. Once something become public knowledge that concerns me. In Sep 2010 commercials were short short short gold, yet what did we see, prices went from 1250 to 1400. On the flip side commercials are now very long the dollar, but that doesn’t mean to say that the market is about to decline, these guys can hold their positions fr months and keep rolling them. So all in all everything i have said is probably worthless lol
Gary,
What do you think of diamonds as represented by Brian’s suggestion MDM?
In the past, I have waved people off “investment diamonds” because the price of diamonds is set by a cartel, not the market. They are obviously leveraged to the consumer as well, with all the challenges that represents.
At the same time, I have done very well with platinum via SWC and have found it a good diversified within the PM complex.
Any thoughts?
@Jonas Haraldson,
It’s O.K. to remember the 70’s, but if you remember the 60’s, you probably weren’t there :).
Sorry Gary, that is how I interpreted it, so my misunderstanding. Good to know you will post “SELL” when the time comes.
I didn’t see any big drops, that I was worried, until I saw your post and being a new sub, have to question what is meant. Since I didn’t understand the in and out process you described to take profits, I chose to hold with stops in place.
fubsy_cooter, I wasn’t worried, just looked like regular dips to me.
Pressure,
I can only speak for myself on this, but as a newer subscriber, I have a much higher cost basis than those that were buying early in January and February. Unfortunately, I cannot just follow Gary’s lead in terms of his stops and triggers, because I’d be in a loss position at his designated stop. With that said, I wasn’t nervous on a day like today, but last week’s price action around the Japan event had my sweatin a bit.
I actually bought more AGQ and SLW and SIL today to square up with GLD.
PST, I hear you I am in the same position as you. Only bought in late Feb / March. So I know what you are saying. But I was watching for dips to buy in today and then I hear that others are going to do differently, I have to wonder, ok, what am I doing?
Gary
Why did my last post get deleted. Apologies if i have not adhered to any rules.
http://www.bullionbaron.com/2011/03/cme-hikes-silver-margin-requirements.html
CME Hikes Silver Margin Requirements (Again!)
Alex-
Here’s the hourly SLW cup and handle or even just a flag if you like.
SLW
Our expectations have been set to see a massive dollar plunge and an epic precious metals blow off top. So to see some kind of weak action here doesn’t perfectly fit our dream scenario. I’m with Aaron…Let’s get the metals expiration Monday behind us. Amazing how every month BS goes down right around that time.
I was watching the ticks yesterday in silver and saw it chugging up nicely when BAM down within minutes. So obvious. I knew right then, margin increase on silver rumor. Sure enough!
Pima,
The explanation you just gave is exactly what I was trying to say earlier. I won’t speak for anyone but this newbie, but others may feel threatened when things start going in the wrong direction. You get accustomed to nice rises and then two down days with a rising dollar not far from breaking thru the descending downtrend line……ya get nervous even though you have the steadying voice of Gary and others on this board. Human emotions are hard to shut down. That is why I value this blog so much. It is needed to keep me sitting tight…..and not browning out and jumping overboard. If the dollar breaks 76.60 I’ll be getting increasingly nervous and will refocus on the Old Turkey method we need to follow.
at ease,
I got in in early March too and have been looking to add more for awhile, so I actually bought a bit yesterday. Those were already “materially” underwater today. I’m glad to say though that I was buying some (and pissing my pants at the same time) during the Japan thing.
i hear you jeff
i also think pressurepointadmin has it nailed on.
Im an investor not a trader, with 0 leverage because im comfortable with my exposure at 100% and i dont want to put myself in a position where im hitting refresh refresh refresh every 30 seconds on my kitco iphone app
im hitting it every 10 mins as it is and thats enough tyvm 😉
It is clear that there are some timing issues with taxes on AGQ. For example, I had unrealized gains on 12/31/10 and I have to pay taxes on those gains even though I never sold AGQ. But those taxes are addded to your basis in the stock and any other fees they put down on the K-1.
I called ProShares and they were of limited benefit.
Here is the real question: in the end when everything washes out and we finally sell AGQ will someone pay a penny more in taxes by owning AGQ than it if was just some regular tax.
Ive just looked at the COT report
Looks like open interest is up which is bearish and also commercials have increased their short position, marginally. Interesting because this time of year is typically a time that commercials are long gold
Too funny Clark.
I’ve been sleeping awful lately (not because I’m leveraged up…I’m 100% in with some small options positions) and I will wake up at 3 or 4 AM Mountain time and immediately I’m hitting Kitco on my iPhone to see what gold and silver is doing on the other side of the globe. My wife thinks I’m insane.
I believe that this may mean some additional weakness heading into beginning of april then some further strength around april 1-2. Watch this space.
Steven, At the end of the day, owning AGQ is no different than owning any other stock. Just a different taxing presentation.
I’m not familiar with futures contracts, but when margin is increased, isn’t it increased for both shorts and longs ?
Seems like the net effect should be small, but there is probably something I’m overlooking.
Wes, i think the only thing we can guarantee with increased margins is increased volatility ahead and mayeb with the larger shakeouts for weak longs
My wife has more fortitude than I do – she’s been a precious metals bull (for fundamental reasons) since $500 gold…it took until $1000 for my overly-complex, angst-ridden thought process to catch up with her common sense.
So these days I tell her Silver’s up $1, she says “Good”. I tell her silver’s down $1, she says “So?”. I gnash my teeth and she says, “Where else do you want to put money? Not in stocks, and not in dollars.”
Keeps me sane.
T.J. get the apron and the hoover out my friend, its time to let the Mrs in the hot seat 🙂
PPA- you’re not the first to suggest it! :<)
steven – i am not tax expert. but this is exactly i was refering to. now you have to pay taxes on 2010 k-1 even if you did not sell agq in 2010. now when you will sell in 2011, you will get k-1 in 2011 also to pay taxes on it. my guess is final taxes paid will be more than what you would have paid if agq would have been normal etf. but here is lottery. if you sell agq in particular month in 2011 which shows loss for partnership of agq then it will work out in your favour as even if you got trading profit you will get loss of partnership too. if you check their websites then they post monthly statements of gain and loss. there are some months were there are losses shown. of if it happens if you sell in one of them months it will be advantage. also ownership of agq is for full month once you own it on 1st day of month. hope this helps.
wes,
the margin increase only affects long positions. in fact, if you are short silver right now, you get paid for holding your short position!
brian – i don’t think its same as owning any other stock. in regular stock we pay taxes on stock’s trading loss and gain. the company of stock pays its own tax on company gain or loss. its possible company is making loss but you make trading gain and vice verca. its not connected at all in regular stock. in case of currency and commodity etf we are running that etf as partners. so we are owners and we are liable for partnerships gain and loss. so we are like passive partners who do not run partnership but become part of good or bad of partnership. also worst is in this partnership we don’t even get share of gain that partnership makes but we pay taxes on it. thats why i am not clear what happens to all this gain of partnership. it just accumilates and then what. who eats it. govt gets taxes so govt is happy and they don’t care who eats gain.
TJRand
You married well.
Check out Jesse’s silver chart. We have painted a beautiful IHS.
Enjoy your weekend everybody. Jayhawk, check your e-mail this weekend, I did not forget you, just busy.
Bob
Edit, I meant gold.
Jayhawk-
She’s well-grounded, that’s for sure. But she’d put me on the far side of the sanity line if I checked PM prices late at night. I live on the East Coast so 6 am is early enough…
pressure,
I have no control over the spam blockers in Blogger. Sometimes it just catches things for no good reason.
Gary thanks for the heads up.
Bob-
Thanks, look forward to hearing from you.
For those using kitco to check quotes on your phones and stuff, bookmark these IMAGES. The bookmarks are better because they are not entire web PAGES (with adds and text and junk you don’t need). These bookmarks are the CHARTS ONLY. Fast and small (lower data transfer too):
(replace ‘***’ with periods)
www***kitco***com/images/live/gold.gif
http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif
What a shitty week. The dollars not rolled over and had it’s tummy tickled, the cot report looks stinky, some silver witch is beating us into a pulp, and agq has the audacity to finish 5% off it’s all time high.
Meanwhile and we are only up around 40-50% this year
We don’t deserve this crap folks, we really don’t 🙂
Does the US$ index (and accordingly all currencies) follow gold’s 24hr 5 days schedule?
http://apeakunderthehood.blogspot.com/2011/03/is-bernanke-going-to-announce-fragrance.html
Is Bernanke Going to Announce a Fragrance Line?
One More Stab– Anyone??
Anyone have any familiarity or experience with JS Kim at Smartknowledgeu??? No way No How I am giving up Gary (or relying on someone else) but someone brought his name up to me and I do not know too much– (Except he has been a pretty big gold/Silver Bull)
Thanks to anyone in advance!
thanks TZ, have a good weekend.
Clark,
Just proves we’re all just a lump of greedy, spoilt and degenerate gamblers in the end. Love it!
Looking for some short term silver trading advice.
I just transferred a big chunk of money into my new precious metals IRA account to buy some physical silver to balance out my silver miners portfolio. I will have about 22% physical silver and 78% silver miners.
The IRA money will be available for me to buy silver on Monday.
My question to you silver prognosticators is: Should I spend it all in one big buy on Monday, or stretch out the purchases over a few days in hopes of catching a dip in the POS.
I’m inclined to just buy it all on Monday on hop on the train for the long ride since silver seems to be taking off.
But if any of you see a good reason why I might want to wait a few days to buy some or all of my physical silver, I’d love to hear your advice.
I’m NOT going to wait weeks because I think silver is going UP … so it’s just a question of buying it ALL on Monday or stretching it out over a few days next week.
The dollar is on day 14 of the daily cycle, which is too early for a daily cycle low.
However, it just printed the 20th week of the intermediate cycle, which is normally in the timing band for a swing low.
The last intermediate cycle was shortened (13 weeks I believe).
That should mean that this intermediate cycle for the dollar should stretch.
What is the likelihood that the trouble in Portugal helped trigger a flight to the dollar and we are now facing a 3 -6 week rally of the dollar out of an intermediate cycle low?
Thanks Brian for the reassurance. Yash, according to my accountant what is really happening is that you are paying the unrealized gains in AGQ + partnership income – partnership expenses (even if you didn’t sell any shares). I kept my position on 12/31/10 and then sold everything in January for about 10 days. Yet my realized gain on AGQ (I had done some trading during the move up in the Fall) is only a very small fraction of the total gains they are asking me to report. My accountant says that all of these numbers will be added to the basis of your stock when you eventually do sell AGQ.
Does this make sense to anyone as an explanation for how AGQ works tax-wise?
Ike
No expert here
But have we seen a flight to the dollar lately for anything?
Maybe flight to the dollar was not termed correctly.
The dollar has formed a daily swing low.
If the dollar breaks above 76.28 next week, we will have a weekly swing low in play as well…
Daniel-
I’ve read some of Kim’s stuff on Seeking Alpha, but have no deep knowledge of him. His articles seem well researched, and his analyses generally sound, but I can’t really attest to the accuracy of his calls.
n1tro,
How does getting paid to be short silver work ?
I hope they pay them a lot, as they may need it.
Ike
Look at the dollar daily chart
It looks like a kiddie roller coaster down
How is that for techy stuff ?
DG,
What ever happened on the SDS trade from the other day ? I must have missed the outcome.
The point is
Do you see a trend and are we near a cycle where it would be meaningful
Press Gary for more answers =)
Wes: Covered and lost .75% Told you the sells were not as good as the buys!
Everyone ran out of gas?
Alex,
your awesome insights will be missed next week…
have a great weekend everyone
unrealized gains in AGQ + partnership income – partnership expenses
unrealized gains in AGQ will get adjusted when you sell evenually I think but partnership income – partnership expenses won’t. so thats extra on which to pay tax. so how much is (partnership income – partnership expenses) – is that substantial?
I am not worried about unrelaized gains.
@Ben: Not so easy for you to know, but I live in Sweden and we certainly had gas rationing for at least a year or so. Killed my budding hockey career, since the place where we trained was too far away.
gottahaveit,
If I were buying physical, I’d buy some now but probably wait to buy half or more near the bottom of the upcoming D wave.
Of course, the D wave might not play out as planned, maybe silver goes to 60 (or 70 or 80) instead of 50 and only corrects to 40 (or 50) in the D wave. So if you wait, you risk having to buy at higher prices.
However, how will you feel if you buy it all now and the D wave drops silver into the low 20’s? I would not feel so good about that which is why I would reserve at least 1/2 of my cash to use as close to the bottom of the D wave as I can get.
wes,
so if i am long 1 mini lot of silver (500oz), they charge me $1.60. if i am short, i make $0.45 per lot. how’s that for conspiracy?? shouldn’t borrowing paper silver cost the same whether you are long or short? its like some unknown power wants people to short silver! lol
Yash,
It was a six figure number for me so yes it is substantial. And I live in NYC one of the highest tax rate areas in the country. But, again, my accountant believes the P/S income will be added to the basis in AGQ when it is finally sold.
Hey Steve
I’m live in the pot hole neighborhood of College Point Queens. Where do you live pal?
Gary,
With the EU approving a 706 billion dollar bailout fund and the BOJ printing Yen, the dollar has rebounded. This could set up a scenerio where the dollar rallies for some time. A strong dollar could be what the Fed wants right now enabling them for more QE. Would you consider the possibility of a QE3 if the dollar does gain strength? I know you have said there will be no more QE immediately following QE2, but in this case the 3 year cycle low would probably arrive in Fall.
Just thinking here. Gold and silver rallied along with the dollar on wed or thurs b/c the world knows fiat currencies are garbage. The USD was up 1.5% (one of its better showings) fri, silver up .40% and gold down only 0.04%. POS and POG could rally along side the USD for the next month for Bernanke to give a clue about a possible QE3 in April. This could be when the firework show really begins kind of like last years run but now with the dollar sinking into the 3 year cycle low. POS could hit 100 and POG 2500 if this scenerio plays out. Pipe dream I know, but winning the mega millions was the winners pipe dream too.
I am considering the possibility that gold could rally along with the dollar. But I seriously doubt we are going to see QE3.
Think about what triggered QE2. It was the market collapse last summer. Until that the Fed was contemplating withdrawing liquidity because the market was soaring and the economy was on the mend.
They didn’t change their mind until the market crashed. It would take another market crash before the Fed panics and runs QE3.
The stock market loves a weak dollar. This strong dollar could be it’s poison.
From Turd Ferguson:
QE WILL NEVER END. IT CAN’T. THE FED IS NOW 70% OF THE TREASURY MARKET. IF THEY LEAVE, WHO WILL BUY? WITH NO BUYERS, HOW CAN THE U.S. GOVERNMENT RAISE THE FUNDS TO COVER IT’S $1,500,000,000,000 DEFICIT FOR THIS YEAR? WHERE WILL IT GET THE FUNDS TO COVER THE $1,500,000,000,000 DEFICIT FOR NEXT YEAR? AND DON’T TELL ME HOW RATES WILL RISE AND ATTRACT BUYERS. THAT’S COMPLETE B.S.!! RATES CAN’T GO UP. HIGHER RATES ONLY ACCELERATE THE DEATH OF THE PONZI! QE IS NOT ENDING. EVER!!
In theory that makes sense. But the Fed can’t break the currency either. They are between a rock and a hard place with no real possibility of escape.
I expect they will just deal with each emergency as it arises. When the currency starts to crash they will halt QE long enough for the dollar to recover. That will of course cause the stock market to deflate and the economy to roll over. At some point they will panic as the pressure on the dollar will have eased and the markets and economy will then take front stage.
Enter another round of printing until the dollar gets in trouble again. Repeat.
At some point a reckoning will come where we will have to decide to either hyper inflate or allow the deflationary depression to cleanse the system.
Gary,
I asked this the other day and maybe you missed it but do you have an opinion on the possibilities of a share split for AGQ – it is getting a little pricey for the average investor.
Sounds like a long battle
Hmm I really have no idea. If I remember right the triple inverse financial ETF did a reverse split so I guess there is precedent.
I dont want a reverse split more on the order of 3:1 or 2:1 would be nice with a subsequent run up. I have read splits do happen with ETF’s:
http://etfdailynews.com/blog/2011/02/18/proshares-announces-etf-share-splits/
Gary,
How will the rising dollar, if it continues, effect your gold and silver projections and timeline in this C wave…or should I just wait for the weekend report.
Interesting how the Fed members came out in interviews over the last few days talking about interest rates rising by 2.5% over the next year. Maybe they were trying to talk up the US dollar. Any analysis I have read has said that was total rubbish that interest rates would rise by that much
http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.03.25%20Inflation_and_equities.htm
Yeah, it was Plosser from the Fed talking yesterday. He’s a hawk and doesn’t represent the makeup of the Fed so most people don’t take his views as real policy statements. You can see that at noon when he started talking the $ went up and bonds and gold dropped. It’s not till the dove members of the fed start talking about this that these moves will make me more nervous.
Here is another point of view why QE will probably not end anytime soon from Dan Norcini -unable to copy chart he talks about
The Seeming Unstoppable Rally in US Equities
One of the things that has really struck me has been the comments of many of the analysts and guests on the financial TV this past week in regards to the rally in US stocks.
The common refrain seems to be something along these lines:
“Well Joe, this market has had TWO BLACK SWAN Events thrown at it in two week’s time and it simply will not stay down. Whenever you see a market that does not respond to bad news and actually begins to shrug off that news and moves higher, you JUST HAVE TO BUY IT”.
It is always fun listening to some of these analysts scratch around for reasons to explain this stock market strength especially when some of these same people will point to the poor labor markets and broken housing market as reasons for concern. Some go as far as expressing great hesitation over further strength given the sharp rise in crude oil and related energy prices. They sluff that off however and will point to the global growth factor as reasons for the rally in the US equity markets with that overiding everything else.
The simple truth is that the world is awash in liquidity and this liquidity is finding its way into both stocks and commodities. It is so massive that it just overpowers anything that gets in its way. In such an environment most traders are simply afraid of being short. What happens as a result of this unwillingness to aggressively sell is that it takes less and less volume to move stock prices higher because sellers are scarcer and price must move high enough to entice sufficient offers into the market to accomodate all the orders to buy.
Take a look at the following chart which I have posted previously here at the site but which I think needs frequent reference to remind us how important this liquidity has become to maintaining the rally in US stocks.
Note the sharp expansion in the Fed’s Balance sheet near the beginning of this year and note how it just keeps on rising. It is that measure of liquidity that swallowed up the selling due to unrest in MENA and the tragedy surrounding Japan.
The Fed may be floating a trial balloon by talking about an end to QE to gauge how stock markets will actually react to such an event but one has to wonder how shutting off the liquidity spigot, based on this chart, is going to affect the high flying equity markets.
Interesting article, Redwine. I hope it comes to bear!
Can anyone here recommend Interactive Brokers? I need to switch broker and I am thinking of going to IB. Thanks
Robert
Can you post a link to your chart ?
this it the chart https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/–pZNhgER180/TY138XvYbFI/AAAAAAAAAQk/lnJjS1vWRuI/s1600/S%2526P.PNG
Laying the S&P over the Fed Balance Sheet:
http://tinyurl.com/4olf9sn
Fed Balance Sheet and the CRB:
http://tinyurl.com/46vzp62
Eamonn,
I’ve been with IB for almost a month and I like them.
If you’re going to use any margin, that alone is reason to use IB because their rates are pegged to the federal funds rate and hence are the lowest.
Jeff,see if this link works-
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/–pZNhgER180/TY138XvYbFI/AAAAAAAAAQk/lnJjS1vWRuI/s1600/S%2526P.PNG
The central bank will want to show that it doesn’t have its head in the sand.
Hanson said it was less clear if and how the Fed would address concern that higher gasoline prices will slow economic growth.
less clear=far from certain?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-may-try-to-talk-tough-on-inflation-2011-03-14?pagenumber=2
Thanks catbird for your feedback on IB. My present broker is kinda scary in terms of their competence so I will have to wait for the c-wave to end before I transfer. I don’t want to miss the c-wave and I’m really scared my broker will screw up the transfer or do something bizarre with my money.
Thanks for the charts guys
I’m on the iPhone so I’ll look tonight
Jeff,
Google Trader Dan’s Market Views and you read his articles and see the charts. Turd Ferguson reference’s Dan from time to time.
Eamonn,
There are some frighteningly incompetent people at my former broker (Scottrade) but it only took 3 biz days of pressuring them and 10 years off my life expectancy (ha ha) for them to see a mistake they made after I switched. (had to do with a trade they made after all my equity was moved to IB. it was a trade that I didn’t authorize)
An ACATS transfer is routine and shouldn’t be cause for concern, despite what happened to me.
Why wait?
It would be a “surprise” for most to see both a rising USD and gold. Truth be told they do not always share an inverse relationship. This may just be one of those times. This blog knows better than most.
got the charts , thanks again
so my question is when the fed stops or ends QE2 will the banks turn around and short the market?
something like some of them did on the houseing? all the while haveing the investers long
catbird, I couldn’t handle the stress and worry of an account transfer with my current broker. I lost $2k one morning last week because of a calculation error they made. I was 20 mins on the phone to have it remedied. Most responses emails from their “customer service” are pre formulated stock answers which make clear that they have not read and understood my original message to them.
I saw this calculation over at harveyorgan.blogspot.com
Anyone have an opinion of whether this sounds like a reasonable analysis?
“Collectively all the G 10 banks are short over 7 billion oz of silver and if imput an average price of say 16.00 dollars the losses are: 7 billion x 21 = 147 billion dollars. Say JPM has 40% of this total, then in silver alone they are deficient of 59 billion dollars. This is just silver.
In gold the total shortfall of all the G10 banks is around 50,000 tonnes of gold whereby 7000 tonnes is forwards and 43,000 tonnes is naked calls. (BIS data Nov 2010). In oz, the total shortfall is 1,600,000,000 oz (1.6 billion oz) with an average input starting point of say 500.00. The loss in gold would be 1400-500 or 900.00 dollars per oz x 1.6 billion oz or 1.44 trillion dollars.”
Jeff–It’s Just my opinion but make no mistake about it, QE3 in some form, overt or disguised, will happen .
If not the stock market will collapse, the economy which is already in horrible shape will even get worse .Bernanke and the Fed will not allow it to happen.Listen Obama wants to get re-elected along with all Democrats in the congress, do you really think a sinking economy will help them-
Also who will buy are debt, the Fed already buys 73% of it now-
Here’s an article from Gonzo Lira on more QE or not:
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/03/how-likely-is-qe-three.html
I encourage everyone to read this report.
http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/
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just got a fortune cookie and this fortune was inside-
You will have gold pieces by the bushel- better than stocks!
is this like the shoe shine boy telling me to buy pm’s?
also I have only seen the etfs get split when they are getting killed. srs, tza, faz were all split but they were also all on their way to zero. during the meltdown some of them were as high as 1k. WOuld love to see my AGQ hit 1500!
No weekend report yet….
I need my fix man….
Robert
How sneaky can they get
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nice video workout Gary..you sure seemed pumped 🙂
good luck next week..may you win.
lol Great lift, Gary! Raw as hell!!
Gary,
If the $USD can move above 77.04, won’t it form a weekly swing low? If that happens would you still want to see a higher high on the daily chart?
A swing isn’t a guarantee of a cycle bottom.
Good reading Gary, as usual well thought out and presented.
No bullshit.
Enjoy your competition and Savannah, my wife and I love that eccentric city.
My advisor can beat up your advisor. haha.
redwine
great lesson thanks
gary
great training
great report
I’m impressed! Piece o’ Cake in Atlanta Gary.
Meant Savannah!(had Atlanta on the brain). Bring it home!
Gary,
Do you use ANY kind of supplements? Like, for example, NO-Xplode?
Do you care about carbs?
Just some caffeine. Carbs are kind of meaningless. I’m an Olympic lifter not a bodybuilder.
I take caffeine and AAKG (the central ingredient in NO-Xplode) before lifting. You can buy generic AAKG powder on Amazon for a fraction of what NO-X costs.
I take creatine, but I am still ambivalent about it. I may not buy another tub if I don’t see a difference after I finish the one I have.
Gary,
I’m glad you don’t take any supplements. I can’t remember the name now but I was recommended one from the in store shop at the gym and horrible side affects. My fingers started tingling and my friend that took the same supplement had chest pains and later found out from his doctor that he may have damaged his spleen! Scary stuff, don’t even know what is regulated or not.
Great report this weekend, lots of information. I was a little spooked from your comment on friday about taking profits but have a re-entry plan (I know you did not say to sell). But I did end up selling some late entries at break even, no big deal only 8% of portfolio so if we get more weakness, the weekend report about the stops gave me confidence and will put it back to work next week.
Gary,
Have you ever tried a paleo diet, Crossfit is huge on olympic lift and encourage a paleo diet for its training. Nice lift btw.
I must confess I have no idea what that is. The only dieting I do is right before the meet as I usually have to lose about 3-5 lbs to make my weight category.
The diet is basically consist of things cavemen ate. Lean meats, fruits and vegis. Nothing processed, boxed, or packaged. Crossfit’s website is awesome and full of useful info. You will love it.
http://www.crossfit.com/
After a lifetime of heavy physical labor, it hurts just thinking about it. Be careful Gary.
great lift Gary althou 120kg doesnt seem like that much weight.
Next time i go to the gym i will try to see what this clean and jerk is all about.
Cavemen didn’t have diseases and sickness like we have today and many scientist blame the foods we eat today for many of our bodily problems. The body hasn’t evolve as quickly as our food has leaving the question is it really healthy. The caveman diet is based on foods our bodies were meant to eat.
Raz,
120 x 2.2=pounds. Do yourself a favor and start with half that weight. Note how deep of a front squat Gary goes down into.
86
i didnt want to say it, but im with you. i got more than one part shot. im not really hurt, but everything i do is garded
Raz,
Put 200kg on the bar and go for it! No need to warm up – it’ll only slow you down.
120 kg hmmm
well i would
1 take it apart and move it
2 get a forklift or
3 go get some mexicans ( a bunch)
120 kg = 264 lbs
I did 135kg/297 lbs. this afternoon.
The world record in my age and weight category is 142.5kg/314 lbs.
Yeah, Jeff, that wasn’t racist at all.
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rob
im going to gut my bedroom, ceiling floors and walls and i pay them what i make a hr.. cash. they love me and are glad and greatful and there on the spot. hell half the time when i drop them off i stay and eat dinner with them. the ALWAYS have hot dinner on the stove.
o calbe lived with me for 6 months when he brought his wife here, but he was dominican
the hardest part looks like when you have to keep the weight all the way up.
i dont really have the body type for this sport but i will try it. I am tall and slender but have been working out for many years.
Jeff,
Right on on the guarded issue. At some point, all the tears and pulls and heavy hits really add up. But thanks to the `G` and some of the real heros on this board, the heaviest thing I`ve had to lift in the last 3 weeks is my limit of sea trout or a bag of fresh grapefruit.
Really good point on the diet though. Fish, fresh fruit, vegies, some good sun really puts some pep back in the step.
86
working in the port?
me and dad play volleyball for 15 years. working out and training keeps you in shape to do that, but then in the working world we dont really train, or streach and it chatches up to you. also you cant stop for a while while you heal
86
ya i got it now. just the grocery store and fishing?
Redwine,
I’ve heard of that one but never read it. I’ve heard nothing but good things about the diet. If anyone can stick to it, the diet will change your life.
Port Mansfield, Tx and about the only thing I`m working on is catching another limit of trout. And who says there`s no justice!
The repetitive use injuries in construction are unavoidable. I put in about 20 years of framing, drywall and roofing. I thought roofing was great because I didn`t have to be in the mud on the ground. Now my knees and lower back have a different opinion.Lol.
Hello Gary,
Great weekend report!
I will try to ask this without giving away details, so here goes:
You mentioned the possibility of the 3 year cycle low in the dollar coming in at a different time than you were expecting.
What about last November? Could that IT low have been the 3 year cycle low? That is, could it have already happened and we missed it?
Well if November was the three year cycle low then we are now already in a left translated three year cycle, as we’ve moved below the November bottom, and will be well into a hyperinflation by the next one in 2014.
I don’t really expect hyperinflation until the end of the decade at the earliest and hopefully our government will come to its sense before that happens.
okay, I see. Because the recent low in the dollar was LOWER than the November low, we would have to be in a severely left translated new 3 year cycle and that would be ugly, very ugly. Yeah, hyperinflation around the corner and all that.
So it makes sense that the 3 year cycle low is still ahead of us.
Thanks, Gary. Great weekend report, very thorough!
Gary. Watching your video makes my back hurt. : ) Good Luck next week.
Gary,
If the 3 year cycle in the dollar is pushed out (or the dollar even strengthens here) do your targets for gold and especially silver change? I thought previously you were thinking 1600+ and at least a tag of $50.
Thanks and amazing report, as usual!
Great lift Gary! good Luck in Savannah!
Nice report Gary , many thanks. Gives me some confidence and focus when the noise starts seeping in
The weightlifting has inspired me also. I’m about to attempt a clean and jerk on on 2 snickers bars simultaneously. If I make it I will eat them. If I don’t I will eat them
Don’t try this at home kids
Great lft, Gary. If you have time, at least post and let us know how you did. Best of luck!
Shot at the world record….wow, that’s pretty impressive.
You ever notice that people who excel in life, will do so at a few different chosen “concentrations”. This alone tells me that I’ve probably aligned myself with the right guy.
Good luck in Savannah and bring home the record.
No a dollar rally doesn’t mean a strong dollar or less dollar in circulation. It just mean the EU is outprinting the Fed at the moment.
gary
could you post a breakout in the HUI on twiter?
i guess you could be traveling though =)
Very impressive video Gary! I expect you will be on top in Savannah. Also, enjoy the neat city, nice time to be there. :>)
traderlady
gonna see alex in fl?
Jeff, I think he said June/July.
Yeah, maybe cocktails by the pool. lol
Just watched that clean and jerk and I think I figured out Gary’s strategy. He doesn’t predict the direction precious metals based on fundamentals. He threatens kick their ass unless they move his way.
Nice work brother.
And the printing continues….
(AGI) Washington – The International Monetary Fund will set up, next week, a 580 billion Dollar anticrisis fund. “The greatest concern is the risk of contagion from Portugal,” says a well informed source. IMF’s top officer, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, will issue the fund, on the basis of the ratification announced on March 11 by the Nab (New Arrangement to Borrow). Last year, the Nab increased 10 times its initial 53 billion Dollars, thanks to the 13 new member countries.
ok
so we are on the verg of a breakout. we tested the new highs, tested the 10 ma, formed a swing.
could we test the highs a few more times?
i have some may 1440 calls and just a little nervous about them. i was thinking june for the top was safe so 1440 was safe for the end of april.. im inclined to let them ride. any thoughts? ( other than that is not in garys plan, so that is what you get lol)
Gary,
This may be a dumb question but I’m still learning…so here goes. If you think that the market may continue it’s down trend in the weeks to come, why is the recent weekly swing an intermediate bottom in your eyes, and not just an amplified counter trend rally due to the exogenous Japan shock?
I still need to get through many weeks of previous reports like you suggested, so I appreciate the patience if this is something that is explained elsewhere.
Because its potentially in the timing band for an intermediate bottom.
However until the market makes a new high I’m sticking with the theory that it will rollover and go lower based on the daily cycle.
Thanks, got it.
I’m actually confusing terms and see that that was your conclusion when I reread the weekly update.
My bad.
Mining Company CEOS forecast Gold price
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/21/us-mining-summit-gold-price-idUSTRE72K66Q20110321
Ahain
I like the 2000 number
everybody find a new blog?
Yeah are there two blogs? Cant see the blogg?
Cant find the site where Gary lift weights..?
he put the link in the subscribers weekend report
no there are not 2 blogs.. just nobody around
Ty Jeff!
Gary looks strong! 🙂
ya he does.. dollar is picking up with a few trillion of funny money on its back
I am long the dollar short PM’s especially SLW HL SSRI with large put positions. http://www.ttthedge.com
I am sure there are several people here that use IB and trade futures. I am just getting my feet wet with some April e-micro gold contracts and could use advice.
I got an email from IB Friday with a warning to sell or liquidate those immediately as they cannot be delivered. Otherwise they will involuntarily liquidate them. I thought they are good until April, but now I guess, April contracts = April delivery and trading ends in March.
Does anyone know if there is a roll-over feature in IB for futures and options?
I guess when trading starts tonight, I’m gonna have to sell them. I really hope we open UP like last weekend. I wouldn’t mind getting a chance to buy back next month’s tomorrow at the same price.
Well, so much for expecting an up open. As I type, gold is down to 1427 right now.
tom
so what is your target for the dollar and pm’s?
dollar gapped up and gold down
yld
i think monday is delivery, so you should be able to roll fairly evenly
i thought this monday was options and the futures were a few days away
Friday was the close for April gold, must be out by Friday or put up the collateral for delivery, Silver arch options for delivery closes Monday PM.
bob or anybody
i have some 1440 may calls and starting to get a little skiddish about them. then a few minuets later i feel fine. any thoughts?
sell calls above that price until we breaks out to new highs again. You will sleep better.
ya next test ill dump them. nothing in stone that this will take off just yet, but i really like the futures chart with the volume and open intrest graph on it. like gary said open intrest is down. when i look at everying all i see is blast off, but one more test, ralley out of the dollar and a little delay…. ok ok ill dump =)thanks
Yesletsdiscuss, you need to roll to the next contract on or before the 3rd last business day. I rolled to the June contract late last week.
Thanks jeff, Bob LH, Veronica/Vuvvy
The contracts were still in my account, and I sold them for 1426…i’m gonna hold off on buying for now. Its not fun to see the profits dwindle from 1440s and have to sell it.
Just trying to understand how the dates work – looking on the CME website, the first position for the April contract is listed as 3/30 and the first notice is listed as 3/31 with the first delivery as 4/1.
Do you think IB wanted to settlement by 3/30 and so asked me to sell by 3/27?
I trade with IB, and before with Transact and I always make sure I roll 4-5 business days before contract month end. I’m not sure what IB’s exact policy is.
You guys are talking about futures I’m guessing, anybody still holding on to april options? Or are you guys going to roll that in to may?
Just wanted to recommend a gem:
http://goldtent.org/
Rule #1 Never, never, never, never short a bull market.
If you don’t believe me just ask how much money has been lost in the last two years trying to pick a top in gold.
There are much easier ways to make money.
Gary,
Asking this question again. I understand if it’s not for the public blog but could you at least include it in the nightly report?
If the 3 year cycle in the dollar is pushed out or the dollar even strengthens here do your targets for gold ($1600+) and especially silver change (a “tag” of $50)?
Thanks and amazing report, as usual!
I answered that in the weekend report.
Gary,
I’m sorry but I’ve read the report three times and I don’t see where you have targets for the C wave assuming the 3 year low in the $ is pushed back. Could you help a fella short on some IQ?
I said I expect gold to complete the C-wave no matter what the dollar does.
Dollar index up does not mean dollar strength. It just means the EU is temporarily outprinting the Fed.
As long as QE2 continues then the supply of dollars will expand. That will drive gold higher.
Gary,
follow up question:
our C-wave basis has been on the fact that the USD will plunge into her 3 year cycle low…
now are we saying that gold will go parabolic regardless of the USD…what will drive the parabolic move?
so..it’s not about the USD anymore?
isn’t that changing everything that we’ve belived in so far..
Nikeboy: The point is that all fiat currencies are going to have problems. The dollar going “up” just means that the euro is worse for now. But people are starting to realize that they need to get out of both and the best alternative is gold. If the european nations and the U/.S. decided to stop printing and let things deflate, then we might have a different story, but until then the dollar being garbage and the euro being even more garbage is not bad for the PM’s. Make sense?
DG,
Thanks, I get it now.
Yes DG you got a point there..
Gary is so flexible. He do not persist in an analysis if it turns out he’s wrong. Now we dont know if hes wrong about the dollar but we got another scenario also..
There is no pride involved and it makes me feel safe when Gary is flexibel.
Many traders claim into the end that they are right and follow the ship to the bottom.
Yep. Flexibility and stops is a good combination. The idea is to make money not be “right.”
Folks our stop is only 3.2% away. If it’s hit it just means we will lock in all the gains from the January bottom up to that point.
It’s pretty much impossible to lose money now unless you are leveraged 20:1.
Not too mention we have huge gains from last year that aren’t going anywhere.
gary
stops are in
gains are safe
but there is not one thing that has changed and nothing is different. this is just a little more consolidation.
more consolidation is better isnt it? it could mean a higher push
i meant. a higher target even
i didnt mean a 1450 higher. i meant a c wave top higher
Gary: To be fair, the stop on GOLD is 3% lower, but the last time gold was there (ten days ago) AGQ was 20% lower at 175 or so. No one is in gold here, so really 20% lower (175) is the relevant number IMO, not as a stop but as what people’s risk is at this point.
DG, I am half in gold. It was the only strong position I came into SMT with. Have been catching up with silver buys since end of Feb.
Fair enough. I shouldn’t have said “no one” but my point is still the same…
True and if AGQ is at roughly the same level and the stop gets hit those that entered at the January bottom will walk away with about a 35% gain.
If I knew some way to look into the future and say for sure whether the PM where going up or down then we could be assured of making the right move.
Unfortunately I can’t, so the best I can do is set the stops and then see how it plays out. Yes if the stop is hit we are going to lose some profit. No way around that.
But if one just gets nervous and exits without a re-entry plan then they risk missing any further move.
I came up with a workable plan for those that don’t have the discipline to honor the stops where they are at right now.
If someone has another idea I sure everyone would give it a listen.
DG, off the subject of finance and on your book. Have you had any experience or results from your work for someone dealing with sudden onset of severe anxiety panic attacks? I just recommended your book to them.
I am not suggesting anything other than that the 3.2% number is not really that relevant to most of us. Nor am I suggesting anyone get out or panic. just that the stop at this point is not all that close. Hopefully we settle down for a few days and can move the stop up as you suggested in the weekend report.
At Ease: My book is more geared to stress and the emotions that come with it. To the extent that the panic or anxiety attacks are stress related the book can help, and such attacks usually have stress as at least a component of them. If you send me your email address (via my website) I will email you a handout about anxiety you can give to your friend.
will do. thanks
Gary, so if the stops are hit does that mean you believe the D wave is upon us?
Doesn’t seem like anybody brought this up on the board yet so I will:
http://www.bloomberg[PUTDOTHERE]com/news/2011-03-24/bernanke-to-hold-press-briefings-after-fomc-meetings.html
The situation is getting so squeezed from both sides that the fed has to up the propaganda level dramatically.
This is a pretty important development
I’ve been long since 900, that’s my stop. I appreciate your guidance Gary but this is what separates the bulls from the bear. The bull always corrects my mistakes.
My comment this evening is that it seems to me that the singular thing that almost nobody is expecting this week, is for the price of metals to HOLD, NOT drop, and shoot higher.
We are all looking down and steadying ourselves for volatility and “what if our stops are hit”, “what if we head lower?”
I find that interesting.
We will see what happens, of course.
TZ I am with you, hoping they are just consolidating waiting on the HUI to catch up.
We are dropping some overnight. I’m gonna put in a guess and say I dont think gold drops below 1400 or silver 36 on whatever pullbacks we are going to get here.
My stops are lower, but those are the zones I expect to hold.
TZ, I think you and I are the only ones watching tonight. Every tick is painful cause it’s down, down, down. Silver seems to be holding better. Dollar just won’t go down.
Maybe by morning, I will be surprised and see it back up. 1417it’s been hanging around awhile now.
No I’m here watching the horror show with you guys. Hopefully we’ll wake up to something better than this.
Maybe we will wake up surprised on the good side. Won’t be surprised on the bad side. Was getting mixed reports from David Skarica today. First he said, gold is just doing it’s seasonal thing March madness into May and go away and HUI is delayed due to oil prices, so it will consolidate and catch up. Then I get another note from his other service that says, start selling off some and get ready to invest in Japan. And get ready to have this C wave stretched out over summer and buy Jr Miners as they are undervalued. So different services, a bit different sentiment in the same day. Maybe he recorded the first one on another day prior.
Well at least it’s hanging around 1418 now, that’s a tick higher. 🙂 Let’s hope it’s heading back up.
Or a temporary hold before another plunge to 1410. Tomorrow will be a tell.
At 1:30 am, I thought I’d put my senseless 2 cents… Huh?
I’ve decided to just marry the gold futures and to hell with with this.
Gold will yield 15-25% on a hold; just gotta flip the futures contracts.
Fortunately, I don’t buy 5 or 10 lots; so chuck it up to bad trading and do like I’ve done with they physicals, camp on ’em and earn money the old fashioned way, old turkey until 2000 or later Armstrong’s 5 to 12,000. And get back to work.
That’s the news from this poster.
Gary,
don’t you think it’s still a bit early for 3 year low in the dollar? Normal timing band is between 3 and 3 and a half years, which is OK. But 2010 yearly low was only 5 months ago. Wouldn’t a bottom in fall be more logical from this perspective? Is it normal for yearly cycle to bottom in only 6 months?
Thanks
I do not believe that no one has mentioned the gold actually had a swing high on Monday.
I know, way too early for a swing high. But the dollar has a swing low and looks like it is rallying out of a weekly low as well.
Ok so I went flat at 1435 / 1430 and bought 1440 calls
Now we are down and I’m still to chicken to buy at my brokers price of 1414 or 1416
That is almost a perfect buy signal . Although I could have a little bit more of a stomach cramp to seal the deal
Me being to chicken is the signal
But if I buy then that is the signal to sell
hope you’re not buying jeff
No Just a lame try at hummor sorry
I did not have my first cup of coffee!
It meant that gold formed a swing high on Friday…
Good morning,
So far this looks par for the course.
My seasonal model is showing further weakness in gold into beginning of April. The optimum buying point is first week of May.
Buy ’em into the dips, fellas!
actually April is seasonally very positive for gold.
May & June are very poor months seasonally for gold.
No way I get shaken off the strongest and only bull market left. I’m also not moving my stops up…last thing I want is to get chased back into fiat paper.
Still looking like normal retracements – gold 50% of the recent up move; silver 38%.
Shalom,
There is such a thing as too bullish. If the daily cycle low gets breached this early in the intermediate cycle then it will most likely signal the start of a D-wave.
There is no reason to ride one of those. Gold would likely drop back down to the $1250ish level.
One would be much better of to take profits and try to catch the bottom of the D-wave and then ride an A-wave.
Holding at that point would just mean you will likely have dead money for possibly up to two years.
Next time I see the first sudden huge red candle a few days before option expiry I’ll be sorely tempted to trade the pretty much predictable drop that typically follows…
A D-wave could last 2 years, seems kinda long?
It’s not that I’m wildly bullish, so much as I can’t stand the thought of sitting around in paper they debase daily.
I’m flexible, but for now still buying the dips. Let’s see what happens.
im yet to calibrate physical gold using gc-067 continous futures. I should have been clearer. I based my seasonal analysis on ABX. Im assuming that they will have a fairly decent exposure to spot price fluctuations, ill run it over the spot tonight to see what the results are. Also my seasonal model is proprietary so i guess i use the term “seasonal” with a little looseness as it differes from conventional models considerably.
wow…gold down nicely…
one thing i’ve noticed: every time the number of posts (newbies) on this board increases, we get a nice correction…I remember that a lot of new people posted in this board last week…Right then, I knew that we were in for a correction…
wonder if it is to shake off weak hand or…the d-wave.
there is talk of a d-wave already again..
Looks like my buy dolar/short euro call last week nailed the dollar bottom. The dollar has already rallied as much as my signal required, so from here on…?
For those concerned about Thursday”s reversal, here’s what happend the last two times using SLV:
11/8/10 reversal was 10.3% high to low that day. Volume was 120 million shares or so. Subsequent low before a new high was 5.6% lower than the reversal day lowand came 8 days later
12/7/10 reversal was 6.6% from high to low. Volume was about 60 million. Low was next day 2.5% lower.
3/24 reversal was only 3.5% high to low. Volume was 60 million. So this was a fraction of the November one and about half the December one, and the December one bottomed the next day 2.5% lower. The one we had last Tuesday, other things being equal, seemed very minor in and of itself. There could of course be other reasons for the metals to pull back, but the tape action is not a major one if they do.
It’s not that the D-wave will last 2 years. Those usually last 6-8 weeks. It’s that it can take two years before gold breaks out to a new high. So your money does nothing for two years.
Much better to take profits and try to catch the beginning of the A-wave.
Are we putting in stop limits or stop markets at the GLD price?
I would use stop market.
I understand, Gary. I suppose I could be persuaded to book profits on half my holdings if you’re exiting, but I still have to keep some. 🙂
I’d like to get to Tuesday afternoon before cutting size, if possible.
Gary
Sorry to clarify “weakness into beginning of April”, meant that come 1st week of april this would be another buying opportunity, so i think the end of the week early next week will present more opportunities. Mid april should see another minor correction with opportunities to buy again 1st week of May. (May is where we kind of differ on opinion)
I don’t really do much with seasonality. Last year gold rallied into the summer. That almost never happens.
I’ve had much better luck using cycles. If the last daily cycle low gets violated then we are looking at a left translated intermediate cycle in gold and those tend to move below the prior cycle low.
In this case that would be 1307. So if 1382 is breached that would indicate a D-wave has begun.
Granted this would be the strangest C-wave top of the entire bull market but I wouldn’t ask questions at that point and would just prepare to sit for a couple of months until the D-wave bottoms.
sell me your metals
i’d be concern if gold dropped out mid april, but now is just normal take down. magnified with eur/usd trade.
Gary,
this C wave IS different. Previous two C waves had more than a year long accumulation after B wave decline and then topped in two explosive weekly cycles.
This one is drawing a trendline. We’ve never seen this before. When trendline goes, so should our C wave.
Man, people are nervous nellies. if SLV opens above $35.90, that is very bullish as that is the support/resistance line from the last high.
I was talking about a top. No C-wave has topped by rolling over and with sentiment as mild as it is right now.
They have always topped with a huge parabolic move and euphoric sentiment.
Even at the $1450 top last week sentiment on gold was dead neutral.
What i like about seasonality is that it gives you specific time frames. So within those time frames you can find those trades that stack the odds best in your favour. THe issue i have with cycles/EW is that there are so many different interpretations to these cycles. You have made your own interpretation work for you and a bunch of other people. I hold down a full time job too so having specific dates to work with works for me.
EW is worthless.
Cycles are however an invaluable tool that, along with sentiment, has allowed me to get very close to intermediate tops and bottoms.
That’s what I’m saying. Parabolic tops were supported by massive accumulation. Which we may not have now.
I’m not saying we won’t see parabolic top. All I’m saying is it shouldn’t surprise us if we don’t. Maybe it’s become a little too obvious by now.
a note on short-term /DX bear rallies:
2/2 1.945
3/4 1.39
3/22 1.19 (thus far)
so everyone calling a dollar bottom here may be jumping the gun
Starting to see a Dollar turnaround – Euro tested 1.40 and is turning up; GBP looks like a false breakdown below 1.60 and reversal; DX turning down from trendline resistance. Should be good for gold and silver.
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My biggest mistake when getting back to actively managing my money was to (by coincidence) getting sucked into the EW world view. This was back in early 2010, when according to them the world annihilating wave down was imminent. Since then I’ve realized that EW interpretations of chart squiggles is about as accurate as weather predictions based on fish entrails.
Tbh, after only 2-3 free blog posts from Gary (aka Toby), my conclusion was that his methods are vastly superior.
I still read a lot of other material, but this has yet to be overtaken by anybody else out there.
consider diversification in these markets and not be overlevered if you want absolute returns. volatility can wreck havoc on a portfolio especially if it’s going the wrong way.
the markets are going in all sorts of directions at this point.
today’s takedown in the metals is one the biggest. so time will tell if the bounce out will be also huge.
some other bulls in the recent weeks; coal, forestry, healthcare
i don’t see the whole market going down until middle of april though.
The HFTs have not helped also, there was an argument a while ago concerning the correlation of stocks, i.e. they all go together. My main studies have been concerning the Dow 30 and i know for a fact that stock rotation is alive and well which makes stock picking an even harder skill to master, even the gold miners are moving independently of each other.
We’ve seen enough of these take-downs to establish that the norm is a bounce back, often quite vigorous.
The explanation model used by the GATA and other metal heads is that price is slammed down to paint a sucky tape and thus induce selling from tech funds and nervous nellies. They then use the selling to cover shorts in order to reduce their huge short position.
Btw, for those who don’t know, today was last day for public comments on the CFTC’s proposal for position limits on commodities. The vast majority of the ca 4,000 comments received were favorable to position limits of 1,500 contracts. We’ll see what happens with this going forward.
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@Jonas
When you say reduce their shorts i presume that they are doing so by using other products like swaps selling fixed and buying floating, offsetting their short futures positions as per the COT reports which definitely shows them, getting shorter. If the COT report is to be believed
Gary,
I have the last 2 C-wave tops as Mar 08 and Apr 06.
Could you tell me the last 2 C wave tops before those?
Many thanks in advance.
The problem with EW is there are usually so many alternate counts, each one of which may play out. Because of the prevalence of all these alternate counts, EW usually doesn’t give any kind of edge.
Moreover, traders can get married to ONE PARTICULAR alternate count way before there is any evidence of that count having a much higher probability than any of the others. Seems to me that that’s what the uber-bears have done with the high level alternate counts.
Gold had a clear 5 waves up from the 3/15 low that topped at the 1448 high. EW would expect a 38 percent to 62 percent pullback after the completion of those 5 waves and that is what is happening now.
Gold has now between 50 and 62 percent. If it goes beyond 62 percent odds start to increase that the 3/15 low will be violated. 62 percent is around 1407. Let’s hope that holds.
Silver has retraced exactly 38 percent, so it’s showing more strength than gold, no surprise there!
@ahain
You’re right, they have indeed been getting shorter in the last few weeks, but for several months prior to that, the short position was actually being reduced.
I’m not sure why. My own guess is that the general confidence has increased and they haven’t been able to generate sufficient selling volumes to be able to net cover. Another could be that they felt threatened by lawsuits or financial losses, but have been reassured that they’ll be indemnified. Who knows?
Leaving for an investment seminar now. Good luck all.
DG that was a great call on the Euro/USD! Wishing you luck on your hedge fund launch!
USD needs to start puling back soon, I didnt like the action in gold ripping through that 1420 level. Option expiration, CFTC’s position limit announcement…should be avolatile day.
PS. Good morning everyone!
SLV back over support at $35.90. This is great news.
Gary,
you sound surprisingly negative today. Does this pullback set alarm bells ringing?
Trichet is helping us here but confirming that he will vote for a rate hike in April…Bye bye USD!!
I have never seen GLD, just sit and hold at a price, it’s like everyone is standing still just watching, no action.
Clark,
What sounds negative to you?
I’m just sitting with my positions. If our stop gets hit then I will put the next plan into place. aka try to get in at the bottom of the D-wave.
I don’t expect the stop to get hit though.
SLW calls was on my buy list this AM but I think I missed a the buying opportunity on the open.
at ease,
as Gary said, this week is key and I think that people are trying to figure out what is the turning point here…it will most probably end up in a violent reaction one way or the other once everybody has made up his mind….
Good day all, lovely weekend?
Nice to such pessimism so close to all time high’s, hope you didn’t cough up those shares!
GLD up, USD down… keep that going!
Once gold trades above 1422, I believe we’ll be out of the woods.
Nervous coughing a bit, but no shares coming up yet, Poly. 🙂
Not liking the deep retracement in gold, but it’s still a bit less than 62 percent, so still within “normal” retracement range.
TSI trader called to short the US Dollar last night (http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/)
Wav_Ridah, which box to you go to? Are you competing in the sectionals?
I’ve been doing crossfit for the past year, Crossfit Long Island City. Like to do paleo during the week but not on the weekend lol.
Gary, Crossfit is a combination of olympic lifting, gymnastics, and circuit training. Sounds right up your alley if you want to check it out in the future.
PM headfake this morning on St. Louis Fed president Bullard comments about discontinuing QE2 early.
Yes I know what crossfit is. I’m strictly a competitive Olympic lifter.
Was international caliper level when I was young but had a hip replacement and broke my ankle in my early 40’s and thought my lifting career was over.
I guess not yet though 🙂
well, the USD continues to hang in there
Hi everyone
I guess we may get a number of fake downs ar
Guess we are staying sharp this week p
Lol
Hi Gary,
I studied biomechanics a bit and that lifting puts huge stress on your hips, but also especially so on your knees. My father has had both knees replaced. I would not like to have that operation. VERY painful, unlike the hip operation
why is there so much emphasis on the USD, surely the AUD is more important given the nature of their economy?
because the dollar is the worlds reserve currency.
Guys
IMO this looks beautiful.
Large gold miners are holding up extremely well today, even at the open, when compared to spot gold. Is this meaningful?
Looks pretty good to me also. I kept everything and am getting out of here so I don’t have to watch every tick.
Stops are in so I’ll leave it alone. Good luck.
Gary,
I’m bullish on the stock market and PM’s. Would new highs on the SPX, be cause for any concern with your PM projections?
Keep your eyes on the bigger picture people! These wiggles are irrelevant on a weekly chart:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_mar282011.html
Not that I’m recommending it, but if XLE can close red today we would have a 2b reversal.
Oil is now moving into the timing band for a cycle low and there is a daily swing high in place as of today.
It’s also stretched quite far above the 200 DMA and sentiment is excessively bullish.
gary
the tone of your posts today came across as defensive, to me anyway.
im new to this kind of variance and days like today make me nervous. looking up to you for assurance and if i dont see it then ill panick and start drinking heavily, and you dont want to create alcoholics via your blog mate 😉
Come on Clark, you’re not a folder 🙂
“Show me the money!”
Clark,
Our stops will prevent any big loss. If they are hit then we will bide our time and prepare to ride the next A-wave.
if they aren’t hit then we should be headed higher soon.
Thanks for not recommending XLE as a possible short. I’ll be sure not to look at it if it closes down 😉
and Clarke, if it goes up tonight, you can still drink heavily to celebrate the resilience of our shiny friends!!
DG,
Actually I figured you would be the only one brave enough to take it 🙂
If we’re going to make a run, this would be the opportune time.
Mild 3 day pullback and a bottom, low sentiment and all time high’s just above.
If the plan is in place, you almost expect it to get explosive and VERY soon.
SLV, new highs on the day.
Poly,
You already loaded up on a lotto play a couple or three days ago, right? This morning’s low looked like another opportunity, did you add anything at the lows?
(Not that I’m doing anything here myself other than holding on to a full position…)
Looking better on the gold chart, I’m headed out for a run in the sun. So everyone keep buying and pushing those prices UP!
Gary, could this be a left translated daily cycle on SLV (Assuming confirmation)? This move overnight almost touched the 10 EMA, and bounced over the five and back over support of the last high.
my guess is silver will do succssful ma10/ma20 test one more time today/tommrrow. that is what happened in october too when both ma10/ma20 are close and after testing ma20.
I have my lottery in play, but with 14.5 days left they will need to “show me the money” soon or I might take them off, even though they are a lottery.
Still holding out, I’m feeling a big move coming today, like the chart.
I bought some SLV apr 39 calls this morning (lottery). couldn’t resist… they were so cheap!
i love it when a plan (of gary) comes together.
especially to see a lot of pessimism on the blog.
if gold/silverbugs are getting negative i feel there’s no one left to sell and the only way is up (nice song btw)
Just because i think that the low isnt in dont confuse that with pessimism. Were all here to make money, we all have different methods and invest/speculate differently.
I think todays action suckered those who went short by finishing at the highs for the day, but also i think it will sucker long term bulls and reverse down sharply, however im sure that will make no difference to most people in this board as we see it goto new highs
I’m back in at 1421
/DX rolling over at the top of the channel.
here
Hi Gary,
New subscriber here. Your using cycles and Sentiment to judge tops/bottoms but what tool/chart are you using to judge sentiment? What would you say is the scale? (daily, weekly)
Thanks
Jay
Thanks for posting link
Much easier on iPhone
And it’s a great chart
Yeah Jayhawk, I have been watching the DX flirt with the down trend line 2am this morning. Was beginning to wonder if Jim Rogers was right about the DX – guess not – heheh
Buying back some of the SLW I sold out on friday, so almost back to full again.
The bull is bucking violently, but I still got 1 hand on the reigns, the other is bolt straight up holding a pint of Stella aloft, attempting desperately to stop premium lager sloshing over the sides while Gary is the fair ground ride operator trying to turn the speed down and stop me falling flat on my face 🙂
Clarkatroid!
I laughed out loud when I read what you wrote.
But gary said earlier that it will be difficult to ride this wave..And yes..It is!!
It is clear that it affect some people mentally when Gary does not sound as positive as before.
Uncertain investors become even more uncertain..Even me!
I think the euro has bottomed and will rise again..
Trichet calls on the forces and is bullish for a rate increase..
I guesss that it will be hard for the dollar to rise in that environment..We will se!
Seems like they will cap silver and gold until expiration. Anyone know the time today for that? 1:30EST or 4:30EST?
Nevermind, it is 1:25EST for silver and 1:30EST for gold. It will be interesting if they let up after those time periods.
Seems like they want silver to end at 37 and gold at 1420.
Jeff,
Had you sold your entire position? At what price?
Congrats on getting back in at a good price. What are you in, just silver, or gold and silver both? What about miners?
damn – everyone learning to play this game ‘almost’.
one more take down tomorrow for the books. lol
Glad I slept in this morning.
Nice candle on the HUI…
I briefly entertained the idea of adding some deep ITM SLV calls at the open but thought better of it since my leverage is a solid 140%.
As Gary said, if a D wave is about to start, then the C wave that just went by would be one of the weirdest ever. Friends, I have seen/heard nothing resembling euphoria for the PMs. Not even here, among the junkies.
BTW, pretty cool that this a 1,000+ post thread.
Swing high on gold and silver today, so far?
PIma
I wa over leveraged so when we tested the high and started to pull back I flattened out at 1430 ish and bought may1440 calls but now I am a little nervous about them
But I’m still way ahead
May is a long ways away…
Silver mini. Just one
Gold a bit more
Futures
I bought one, too, and may add another mid-week. Gold looks like an inverse h&s pattern has formed, and putting in the right shoulder.
Any other IB customers unable to look at options Greeks under “options analytics” today? This has happened before.
For IRA/401k owners-
Gonzo Lira wrote an interesting piece about who will buy treasuries when QE2 ends. He discusses whether the Japanese, Chinese, & Europeans will do it and dismisses each. Through the article (and the comments, which themselves are unusually good after a rough few initial ones) the issue gets a thorough scrubbing. After going through the possibilities, GL offers 2 options:
A) QE3
B) Forced investment of IRAs/401k’s in Treasuries (or outright confiscation)
Both of these would be more likely after a market crash, and this issue is explored in depth in the comments.
Thought I’d post this and the link in the event anyone is interested.
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/03/how-likely-is-qe-three.html#more
For the record, Gonzo Lira thinks QE3 is he way we will go due to easier politics. The consensus in the comments (and my own opinion) is that we’ll eventually have both.
Pima
Any thoughts on may 1440 calls ?
TJ Rand, If they touch our IRA’s there would be a HUGE uprising with riots I would be there.
Traderlady, I’ll join you in the streets. That will be a huge Ponzi if ever there was one. I’ve been toying with the idea of taking a loan out on my 401k but I have to get it approved by my company’s owner/CEO and Vice President. From what I’ve heard, this is only allowed for hardship / emergencies …
Zero chance of any IRA raids before November 2012. The only way it becomes possible is if Barry gets a second term.
Traderlady & LowTax-
I’ll join you at the ramparts…Just hope there are enough of us when the time comes
Not trying to be alarmist with the post, but it is an issue I’ve wrestled with, and I thought Gonza lira gave it as broad and dispassionate a treatment as possible.
On a happier note- The HUI bounced off of the 20 MA this morning before moving higher
LowTax, I think it may not be a good idea. You have to pay tax on the earning if you made money, and you have to pay interest on the loan. I am thinking about putting less money into 401k, and put it into Roth IRA or just stock market instead.
Just my opinion, but I think the chance of the Feds mandating IRA/401k investments is about zero. They have lots of tricks at their disposal that are legal, why do something overtly inflammatory? Anyone proposing it will immediately sacrifice his career in politics. They can’t even raise the Social Security age by a couple of years out of fear they’ll get voted out and they’re going to steal retirement accounts? Preposterous.
I know that this was asked at least 3 times in the past week, but I can’t find any of the posts. What charting software do people use and recommend?
Appreciate any thoughts?
I use stockcharts.com (as does Gary). The free version can do a ton. I am a member which allows me to program screens to find stocks that fit my criteria.
The government won’t present it as “confiscating” your IRA – they will be much more subtle. It will be made to look very attractive, a good deal for everyone.
I’ve moved over to StockCharts as well, and in addition track the dollar, gold and silver via ChartStation.
I use prophetchats through investools.com I tried stockcharts too, which it seems everyone prefers, but I found it a lot slower and less flexible than prophetcharts.
Thanks for the suggestions
Glen: Making it attractive is not the same as requiring it. If they require it I think they’ll get shot.
The deficit has to be covered somehow, and since I believe the last option will be cutting spending in the amounts needed, there are only a few avenues to take. Throw in a market crash that causes the majority of people to question their ability to manage money, and offer a ‘guaranteed’ retirement annuity investing in the ‘safety’ of Treasuries…
You get the picture. I hate the idea, and agree there would be a huge political price…so it won’t be done until there is a bigger political price to be paid by taking other alternatives. But I believe it is coming at some point – hopefully not for several years in the future.
DG – I agree with your sentiment about 401k’s, at least for the moment. I don’t think it’s do-able at this time. But I can easily envision circumstances that will make it substantially easier – if and when the bulk of the population has little or no value left in their accounts, they will easily trade it for the empty promises of the day’s current politicians. It’s merely a matter of the circumstances at the time.
Remember that the US government openly confiscated gold in the 30’s so confiscation is not really soemthing new. It’s just something that needs the proper framing.
And we’re not really talking outright confiscation either – we’re talking about leaving people’s balances intact and forcing some or all of their balances into Treasuries with a “guanrateed” return. Under the right circumstances, people will grab at that like water in the desert.
At some point in the indefinite future, maybe. And the “confiscation” of gold was only done because the currency was backed by gold and they wanted to devalue it, so they had to get the gold. And it was in the middle of the Depression. If things get bad enough anything is possible, but we are a long ways away from that. Someday…who knows, but talking about it now is like wearing a parka in July because it’s going to get cold eventually.
PST, http://www.freestockcharts.com/ is actually pretty nice.
On the confiscation of gold, that will never happen. The easiest thing to do is to allow the fed to hyper inflate the dollar to pay off the debt, destroying peoples savings in the process. It is kind of a back door way of them stealing your grandmothers savings.
this may be old news to some but Utah is recognizing gold and silver as legal tender
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/04/utah-house-passes-recognizing-gold-silver-legal-tender/
does anyone have change for 1400? hahah
Jeff,
Sorry, I stepped away for a bit.
I am no fortune teller, but I have still have confidence in Gary’s analysis. So as long as our last daily cycle low is not violated, the trend is still up.
So far today’s action looks promising. New impulsive move up from the lows (clean 5 waves on 15 min chart), followed by a zigzag correction (so far).
Looks like that correction will take gold to around 50 percent retrace of today’s move up, so around 1417. That also jibes with today’s wave structure.
So –IF– this thing plays out the way we would like (and the way the wave structure looks like it could), then after we tab 1417, we should see a reasonably strong advance for the next 5 wave up impulse.
It looks more likely than not that we will tag the 1448 high in the next week or so and very likely continue up from there.
Based on what I see, I would continue to hold the calls for at least the next several days. Hell, by this time next week they just might be in the money.
When do the calls expire?
I agree with PC,
The only holdings I have which are iffy are the lottery April 40 SLV calls which are not that much to begin with.
Duuuuude,
Back door? How about front door, big wide double doors at that?
They have been stealing ALL our savings since they were created, so the hyperinflation gig will just accelerate the theft and make it obvious.
Bernanke may soon be unwelcome in his own country.
‘course he does not should ALL the blame, he’s just the last thief holding the bag when the gig is up.
Folks you might consider waiting for
a swing low before jumping.
Miyagi,
I have a couple of deep in the money April calls (GLD). They are essentially shares at this point, no time value left in them. I will either exercise or roll them into May or June in the next week or two.
I don’t know about options on futures. I believe that’s what Jeff has. Even though his are May, I suspect they have a different expiration date than the options on ETF’s. Possibly as early as the last day of April.
Gary, I’m sure this has been covered, but do you have a recommended reading book list that you could maintain on your subscription site? Or at minimum tell us the top 3 you would recommend for learning about cycles and sentiment or anything else you would consider crucial to your successful trading?
I don’t really know any good books on cycles. My favorites are both the Trader Vic books.
Gary and Jeff,
I am not advocating jumping here, one way or the other. (I’m not adding to my positions, nor I am selling any.)
I like the price action today, so until we get something different, I am holding my position.
Gary has our stops in place, so we’re covered should something go seriously awry.
Awesome – thanks for the fast response…
Trader Vic has a number of books out – could you be more exact on the 2 you like? He also has a cookbook series, Tiki Party and Pacific Island, which I doubt you are referring to 🙂
Are they:
Trader Vic: Methods of a Wall Street Master
&
Trader Vic II: Principles of Professional Speculation
There is also
Trader Vic on Commodities: What’s Unknown, Misunderstood, and Too Good to Be True
Yes those. I need to get the third one. I haven’t read it yet.
The breakout for $HUI is still imminent. Price has simply come back down to test the 20ema (even a test of the 50ema would be OK)
http://tinyurl.com/6ejdgny
PK,
Why EMA vs SMA?
mining shares have given up all gains…chart suggests more downside tomorrow…
Guys,
Most of these gold articles are useless and premised on the US going broke.
If the US needs money, it prints it. This can cause inflation, but we’ll never go broke. If we never sell another bond or collect another penny in taxes, it just doesn’t matter because we just print the money.
So, articles that suppose the US goes broke, or somebody somewhere will not buy another of our bonds, these articles don’t make sense. Ignore them, because the author doesn’t understand how money works.
http://tinyurl.com/4hrpzbm
I usually use EMA on my charts. I note that $HUI is currently making a test of the 20 day simple moving average SMA. I would not be surprised to see a test of the 50sma before the “imminent breakout”. (Just that like everyone else here, I too would like to see it bounce right here and make the breakout.
Wes: Parts of that make perfect sense to me, but then why does the gov’t sell bonds? Just as a tool to sop up excess dollars? Why pay interest, or is the interest payment also irrelevant as they just print it?
Just because we “can print it” does not mean we are not broke already!
Well actually if we have to hyperinflate the currency to pay our debt we will still be broke.
There still is no free lunch in this world. And printing to pay our debts in lew of real productivity is still going broke.
The consequences will be devastation much worse than what happened during the 30’s.
“Just because we “can print it” does not mean we are not broke already!”
How does one go broke when they control the supply? Makes no sense. We can certainly create inflation by creating too much of it, but broke is impossible.
DG,
2b reversal is getting close 🙂
I agree with Gary– and started investing in Gold when the first TARP bill passed– (Albeit I was a little late to the game) — This is the fundamental Austrian based philosophy of Economics which helped me “stick” to Gary when I found him!!
Inflation up to the point where no one will accept or use your currency, at which point you actually are broke.
DG,
The answer is that a lot of our monetary system is left over from the days when we were on the gold standard.
The only reasons to sell bonds now is that it allows interest rates to be set and it provides a place to store money for interest.
This is not the simplest way to do either, but it’s what we’re currently left with.
Markets turned down sharply…
I took a shot at 78.70. I also hacked into your bank account and will debit whatever I lose on the trade Of course if I win it’s because I am brilliant 😉
Not being able to pay your bills is broke enough to me. Borrowing more money to pay your bills (aka Printing it) is broke enough to me! “Printing more of it” just makes it all that much worse!
Is zimbabwe broke? Was Germany? The answer is YES.
Regarding confiscation of retirement accounts: I believe if such a law ever passed it would be declared unconstitutional. Seems to me such an idea would violate the 5th amendment (although I’m not a lawyer or a constitutional scholar).
Did I miss some event that turned the DOW/S&P/NASDAQ down at the end?
Market really shit itself at the end of today. Did XLE close flat?
XLE slightly down at the end, 18 cents.
I’m not saying printing is an answer or a sensible approach, just pointing out that we can not go broke, that is a fact. On the flip side, cutting all spending and choking the hell out of this economy, in the name of debt, sounds like suicide to me!
Sure we can print ourselves to oblivion where we are worthless and that would be a “form” of being broke, I do not deny that.
But we are VERY far from that!
So before you hang your hat on that thought and rush out to buy bullion, canned food and a shotgun, remember we’ve be down this path before. It might get 10x more difficult and we might experience some significant inflation down the road, but I wouldn’t count on dark days forever! You will find yourself handing onto “relative” worthless shiny metal while the world moves on. IMO. (Yes still a big gold bull though)
“Is zimbabwe broke? Was Germany? “
Lame comparisons and you know it, or I hope you do!
I know it’s a shock to realize, Haggerty, but we’ve been printing at will since the 1970’s and it looks like it’s going to continue, so try to get used to it.
We have the world’s reserve currency, unlike the others you mentioned.
I agree with Poly. Zimbabwe and Germany did not own the world’s reserve currency. Their debt was denominated in foreign currency so they had to default on their debts. We owe in dollars and can thus just print them to satisfy our legal obligations and thus will never default. We buy oil in dollars as well. “Broke” is too vague. If it is carefully defined what I am saying becomes clear, I believe.
Poly-
Never meant to imply that these doomsday “broke” scenarios were, or are, imminent! But figuratively, I beleive we are broke already– (Although you are correct–we can just print more-and print more etc.) That to me just increases our degree of “broke”– (If we continue to choose that path.)
WES,
If we don’t movement overnight or tomorrow by mid day, I’m dumping the lottery for hopefully most of cost back, live to fight another day 🙂
With 14 days remaining, we need it to be much more advanced, this 3 day pullback has hurt it’s chances.
I had my husband move his retirement funds from government TSP for the exact reason you all discussed. In the military we get what they give you, whoever is in power has the say. Why wouldn’t they start with Military retirement plans (TSP/401s) as well as government employees retirement plans? They control all the transactions of these folks paychecks. Heck, if they put the IRS in control of the health care plan, anything goes.
“How does one go broke when they control the supply? Makes no sense. We can certainly create inflation by creating too much of it, but broke is impossible.”
Because you control the supply of PAPER. As USD value goes to zero you become more and more broke. Costs for government continue to increase while USD becomes worthless.
Gonzo is wrong, on the conversion of retirement accounts to treasury bonds, because the government would need to sell the equities and totally crash the stock market. Ooooopps, won’t work.
Pima. April 26
Wes Poly,
I understand that we are the worlds reserve currency. However I also understand that there is a first time for everything. Believe me, we are a few meals away from complete anarchy all the time. For the first time in World History (for the last 40 years ) every currency in the world is backed by nothing. To say that it’s impossible for us to go broke or to say that we have been here before is wrong. Who knows how this could end. I believe that someone will move back to some sort of commodity backed currency in the future. I can be wrong but You can’t tell me these things are impossible.
Poly,
You’re probably right about it not working out.
I’m still thinking about what to do. I only have 100.
DG
Is it not impossible for other country’s to reject the dollar for those very reasons.
Yeah, because those commodity back currencies provided such security in the past! Heck we only had 4 major depressions in the 1800’s!
Power Corrupts, they will steal your retirement through the back door. They will not ask you for your bank statements and take it that way.
If your grandmother has 300,000 in CD’s at the bank, the government essentially steals her money by hyper-inflating the currency. If they print enough money to stay solvent while driving the purchasing power of her money to $150,000, then they stole her money just the same as if they took it from her. That is how they steal our money. Nobody goes to prison.
Haggerty,
Other countries cannot reject our money for payment of our debt, because it’s payable in our money.
Beyond that, who cares if they reject it ?
“As USD value goes to zero you become more and more broke.”
How does it go to zero? Do you mean the value against one other currency pair goes to zero? Which pair specifically? Last I looked, every country has printed to support itself, we’re no exception. So as the reserve currency, why are we suddenly going to zero against countries with similar sized Debts to GDP?
There’s no question the US is broke. We will never be able to pay back our debt. And amazingly we keep going deeper in debt to push out the day of reckoning.
I’ve said this many times; there will come a day when we have to decide whether we are going to completely destroy the currency or suffer the deflationary depression that is required to halt this monster debt spiral.
All people, and countries for that matter suffer, from normalcy conditioning.
People are conditioned to think that if something has never happened before than that means it can’t happen. Of course we know how well that worked in 08.
But it can and will happen. If we continue down this path the dollar will lose it’s reserve currency status. If we continue we will end up hyperinflating the currency. If we continue we will suffer a hyperinflationary depression. Just because we are the United States of America doesn’t exempt us from the laws of the universe.
There is no easy way out of this mess we’ve gotten ourselves into. So instead of making the mess bigger and bigger by trying to print more and more money. We really should accept that printing is what got us in the fix in the first place and just get on with the healing process so this doesn’t last 20+ years like Japan or the depression.
I doubt we will though as we’ve now made the problem so huge that the thought of suffering the consequences are almost unthinkable at this point.
Poly,
We completely disagree on this topic, On a separate note you said you are going to move your options out till next month because April is too close to expiration right? I’m guessing you don’t think we are going to get our jump before then/
Is anybody going to ride their April options out?
Jeff,
Okay, then you’re now in the time band where you will see the “time value” (which is the entire value of an out of the money option) decay at its most rapid pace. So it’s starts to be a problem with each day that gold either goes sideways or goes lower.
Out of the money options basically suck, except for the lottery play that Poly does occasionally. Seems like with OOM options, you would want to put a very small percentage of your account into them (if any at all) and be prepared to lose ALL of it.
I don’t know how much you put into those calls, but if you don’t want to lost the whole amount, I’d probably watch the action for the next couple of days. If we go higher quickly, you could do well. If we continue sideways or down, I don’t know, maybe start unloading a little bit at a time.
Good luck!
@ Haggerty,
I’ve never held April’s, except for the lottery plays. If I get out, these will not roll, just a cash out.
ALL of my deep in the money (core portfolio) have been in the July options since the very start of the Intermediate Lows set in Feb.
Wes
You say who cares if they reject it. At first it sounds good. But eventually me and you and every other guy in the street won’t start to accept it. That will spread very fast. The free market will force that hand eventually. Eventually no one will accept it because it is worthless
another down day for miners – HUI finished almost @ LoD at the 20 day SMA
Also the 10 day MA is still below the 20 day MA…it need to go over the 20, which might take a few days..
and the dollar just refuses to go down..
hopefully gold breaks out of its funk this week…
Haggerty, I already moved all my options out to May/June/July.
Any idea why the market went down quickly at the end? Profit taking?
The delta on the April lottery ticket (SLV Arp 40 calls) is .078. The delta on my next highest April call is .913.
So, the lottery ticket is all I need to address, now.
How does it go to zero? Do you mean the value against one other currency pair goes to zero? Which pair specifically?
It goes to zero like all fiat currencies in history have gone to zero. Noone is willing to exchange real goods/services for USD.
I’m not saying this is guaranteed just that it’s possible. IMO is highly probable seeing how the only way out of this debt problem is to debase. I sure as hell don’t believe the politicians will be able to reign in spending to the degree that’s necessary.
Hsggerty,
Are your April options deep in the money (DIM), at the money, or out of the money?
I have some DIM GLD and SLV calls. Because there’s so little premium in them, I’m not too concerned about them. The thing is if I roll them to May or June, I’ll end up paying a premium for the time value on the new calls.
So I’m thinking I may just exercise the SLV calls (or sell the calls and buy shares). Maybe I do the same with the GLD, but the GLD shares eat up so much more of my account balance because of their higher price compared to SLV, so I might end up rolling them (the GLD calls).
Ok Poly,
Let us know when and if you unload those I have some lottery plays too. In April May and June.I don’t have much experience in this area so I like to hear what others are doing.
TIA
Poly & other guys who use options,
I have some April 34 SLV calls. What is a good way to handle these.
These are a small fraction of portfolio.
I am a new option investor & picked up these calls to get familiar with options, hence will appreciate your feedback. Thanks.
I don’t understand the argument that hyperinflation is impossible because the USD is the worlds reserve currency. People seem to dogmatically claim this without thinking it through.
Can anyone here explain why this argument holds any water at all?
Pima
I have Exk and slw for my aprils and they are just out of the money. i think it’s possible we go sideways and when we do jump out it will explode to the upside. The question is will it jump before the 14th of April
a currency can “go to zero” when compared to an ounce of gold. In Zimbabwe, you can not buy an ounce of gold no matter how much paper money you have there.
Redwine,
All fiat currencies have not gone to zero.
Consider the following fiat currencies:
US Dollar
Euro
Yen
Swiss Franc
Australian Dollar
Canadian Dollar
.
.
.
These are fiat currencies. Have they gone to zero?
So the statement “all fiat currencies have gone to zero” is flat out false.
Will they go to zero? Who knows. Maybe, maybe not.
As long as these fiat currencies float against each other, the only way I can see that the US Dollar will go to zero is if they ALL go to zero. Could happen. But can anyone tell me when?
I see a lot of people buying a lot of options. Just make sure that you aren’t so heavily leveraged that if this doesn’t play out like we want it to that you still have plenty of capital to invest at the bottom of a D-wave.
Just be prepared for anything and don’t get so emotionally and financially attached to one outcome that you can’t turn 180 degrees if conditions warrant it.
Redwine,
High inflation is certainly possible.
As far as I know, hyperinflation has only occurred because of owing debt in the other guy’s currency.
That doesn’t mean it cannot happen, but it hasn’t, yet.
Sandy,
Considering you asked and your omission of buying them to “learn”, I would sell them ASAP.
Plenty of online resources, books and paper trading sites to learn on.
Currencies won’t necessarily go to 0 against other currencies but they can go to 0 in purchasing power against commodities.
It doesn’t really matter if it takes 80 yen per one dollar if it takes several million of either to buy a loaf of bread.
Thank you Gary…
The Defense Rests. lol
pima
ill be looking to dump them
Sandy and Haggerty,
Tough call on what to do with your options.
Sandy, yours are in the money, but not by much. As we approach expiration, the premium or time value will go to zero. You might consider selling them now and just buying the equivalent number of SLV shares (100 for each call option your will be selling).
Haggerty, I have no idea how much longer we’ll wander around without moving up enough to put your calls in the money. You can always unload them a little at a time, some tomorrow, more the next day, etc.
Good luck!
Gary, you much more rational when you stick to the cycles and gold bull market.
Gary,
you’ve been talking about the d-wave quiet a bit in this post…
pima
was there somebody on this blog from brazil? i think they said Brazil defaulted 2 times
test
If gold breaks below $1382 then we are probably going to move down into a D-wave.
Do I think it will happen? Not really.
Will I stubbornly sit and watch all my profits evaporate if it does? Not a chance in hell. I will go to cash immediately and bide my time until the next A-wave begins.
But until $1382 is breached It’s just needless speculation. Right now we are in no-mans land.
Pima
I know that all current currencies haven’t gone to zero as of yet. I figured that was self evident. Duh.
All fiat currencies, in the past, have gone to zero. There, better?
Thanks Poly.
My April SLV 34 calls are less than 1 % of portfolio, hence not much financial impact either way.
I will sell them tomorrow.
Redwine- there is a technical definition for “hyperinflation”- a certain % rise in inflation in certain time period- I can’t recall the specifics but it did not seem too fantastic.
You are correct- my understanding is that just because we are reserve currency, we are not immune to “hyperinflation” scenario.
However, because we are a “reserve currency”, we have the right to dwell into completely uncharted territory for unknown periods of time: The US has apparently, well crossed over certain technical threshold limits (I believe things related to “debt to GDP percentages”) that in cases like other countries (e.g. Argentina who has had foreign debts in 2000), they imploded much sooner- the bond market took over and yield rose rapidly.
Furthermore, re: printing money fears, apparently, there are many strategies/tricks the government has up its sleeve to devalue the $ in a controlled fashion (to deal with the debt) and, hence, avoid further debt issuance that would cause the horrific “hyperinflation” scenario: one such trick is to induce our foreign trade partners to start dumping their $ holdings (after all, the foreigners own trillions).
Also, what better excuse for the government to say that the $ crapped out because of the “foreigners”?
Bottom line—> there are so many technical aspects to this topic that I don’t understand all – but read enough to decide that our US future is, most likely, going to be a very very “slow motion” traffic/inflation accident – with a small chance of “all hell breaks” any moment hanging over our heads.
Better to ride these cycles and convert the paper to other assets and enjoy….
Wes
“As far as I know, hyperinflation has only occurred because of owing debt in the other guy’s currency.”
Well common sense would tell me that owing debt in your own currency and nations/people all over the world hoarding USD would make USD hyperinflation considerably more likely. No?
I miss the six days up in a row. I’m ready to go back to that anytime now 😉
Duude, Ronald Reagan did that to my father’s savings. He wiped out half the man’s life savings. He wiped out half the value of all those who were conservative and loaned their money to the gov’t in the form of treasuries.
IMO, there’s zero chance it won’t repeat.
It seems to me that what is going to happen is the following:
Silver/Gold will be up nicely and a lot of people will sell because of the past 3 days. Then pms and miners will keep going up and people will jump back in thus accelerating the ascent.
I’m just sayin’, this is based on human psychology; in other words, that’s what I would think of doing and therefore so will most.
Doesn’t mean that I will do it.
Gary: “All people, and countries for that matter suffer, from normalcy conditioning.
People are conditioned to think that if something has never happened before than that means it can’t happen. Of course we know how well that worked in 08″
Ask Japan about their assumptions re: tsunami height and intensity.
Haggerty: They can “reject” the dollar all they want, but the contracts are denominated in dollars so that’s what they have already agreed to be paid back in. We are in compliance if we just print enough to pay them back.
Gary,
How do you get a D-Wave without a blowoff top, we’re not stretch far from the 150dma to support a D-wave, are we?
I mean a D-Wave here would certainly drop us below $1,308 and result in a failed IT cycle, that would be beyond bearish, no? Have we had a failed IT cycle besides the 2008 crash?
Wouldn’t the more obvious choice be a push out to fall instead or a D-Wave?
Two scenarios, which would weaken the dollar’s status as reserve currency:
1) The Saudi Arabia rulers fall. A new regime decides to sell oil against payments in gold instead of USD.
2) China gradually moves so that buyers of their export goods need to pay in Yuan. (They actually already started to settle trades with India in Yuan).
Not saying these are likely, but they sure aren’t completely impossible.
There are two key reasons that the USD has become the world’s reserve currency. i) heritage from when it was actually backed by gold, so in effect by holding dollars you held gold. ii) the fact that OPEC only sold oil for dollars and no other currency, which forced most major countries to have a dollar reserve.
“one such trick is to induce our foreign trade partners to start dumping their $ holdings (after all, the foreigners own trillions).”
If US foreign trade partners dump their USD holdings it would increase USD velocity significantly. Velocity can be much faster at causing price increases than increasing quantity. I mean, they would have to purchase THINGS with their USD. All the worlds USD could come flooding back into the US in a short period of time, creating a money tsunami of epic proportions.
If everyone treats USD like hot potatoes, because their value is obviously decreasing, we will have hyperinflation, I believe.
I know it’s very complex and just speculation, but I’m trying to understand and have adjusted my opinion several times on this issue.
I think the reason normal type inflation isn’t possible has to do with insane debt levels and a world in transition, unlike the seventies.
Poly,
I’ve been contemplating that one myself. It certainly wouldn’t look like any other D-wave because it wouldn’t really be a severe regression to the mean event.
It would probably play out over 3-4 months and grind lower with plenty of violent counter trend rallies.
Of course until $1382 is violated it’s just empty speculation.
Redwine,
It’s a bogus argument.
All cotton clothing eventually wears out and ends up on the trash heap.
All automobiles end up in the junk yard.
So I shouldn’t wear cotton clothing or buy and use and automobile?
Everything goes to ZERO eventually, that’s the nature of things in this relative world.
If our currency will eventually go to zero (and given a long enough time horizon that will have to be true, just as sure as the US will one day no longer be the world’s only super power), the only reason that statement would have any significance is if the currency will go to zero within our lifetime, or even in the next 10 years. Can anyone tell me that that will happen?
Prognosticators have been forecasting doom for the US Dollar since the 70’s. Hasn’t happened yet. Will it happen eventually? Probably. But if it happens in the year 2090, do we need to worry about it now?
Will we have inflation? Hell yes!!! But inflation is very different from the currency going to zero.
So this mutated D-Wave would hold the last IT cycle lows of $1,308?
Looking and smelling just like last year. Mild rally in the Spring, big launch out of the Summer intermediate lows.
We still have time for a large move now though. I’d like to see how the rest of the week pans out now that the metals options exp is behind us on gold.
Poly
If this was a d wave , it would look nothing like what Gary has described
In theory no $1307 would not hold because this would be a very left translated intermediate cycle.
I don’t understand what you mean Jeff. We’re discussing a scenario where gold breaches $1,382, not what we’re in now. (I’ve followed Gary for a long time)
Jawhawk, my sentiments exactly! It’s got time, but if it’s going to be a C-wave top, it’s going to need to do it sooner than later.
I just don’t see D-wave being possible, last year scenario would be a good candidate, of course still working on an “alternative scenario” to the current standing one.
sorry
Pima
Good, I’m glad you agree that the USD will eventually go to zero. Gold and silver will never go to zero.
Obviously the real question is when. Just because some people argued it would happen in the seventies, or at other times, is obviously a weak argument against it happening now. Just as arguments that the continental dollar would survive were wrong.
The USD has lasted longer than any fiat currency in history. The US has had four currencies, more if you count private market currencies.
Peoples faith in these slips of paper is mind boggling. I have no faith in paper money. Gold money has never gone to zero and probably never will.
Back in 2008ish, there was a blurb on the radio that there was only so much gold; hence, curriencies are necessary evil if there is going to be any economic activity.
Daily-
http://mises.org/daily/1829
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p12983658322&a=228380139&listNum=1
The USD was actually very rapidly losing its value in the 70s. It was saved by drastically raising the interest rates (and I mean drastically and for a long time). In other words, there was some recognition of the problem and willingness to endure the cure.
Compared to those days, the current trend is vastly higher speed on the money printers and zero interest rate policy for “an extended period of time”. I can’t see how paper created at an accelerating pace out of thin air will remain desirable to exchange for oil or even plastic toys. Hence the commodity inflation we already can see.
Looks like a bull flag in HUI to me.
The fact that the US is the world’s reserve currency has nothing to do with gold. I think other currencies were backed by gold also, without ever being the world’s reserve currency.
We are the world’s currency because we have the biggest economy and insist on buying things with dollars. China is next with about 50% of our size, and since we are their biggest customer, don’t look for them to pass us in your lifetime.
You often hear people refer to the nineteenth century ‘depressions’ as proof that a gold standard won’t work. The truth is that century was an economic utopia compared to the next and all the economic busts were quickly recovered from. Constant deflation helped the poor more than the rich.
The reason the “Great Depression” is remembered is due to the fact it was far worse than anything experienced in the 19th century.
I personally don’t support a gold standard (chaining gold and fiat together), but do think having a dual system would provide many advantages to both extremes.
Most everyone is an idealogue when it comes to soft/hard money questions. Everyone seems to occupy the extremes.
One other reason we are the world’s reserve currency: We are the greatest military power. I read an article (don’t remember by whom, unfortunately) that felt persuasive to me. The guy said that in world history the reserve currency has always and without exception been of the country that had the most military power. The U.S. is not losing that position any time soon.
The USD would never have become the worlds reserve currency without being redeemable. Look what happened when Nixon told the Saudis they could no longer exchange USD for gold.
THE FIRST OIL CRISIS.
we can have the biggest baddest military and economy in the world but if the Fed breaks the bond market because they printed too many dollars it’s all over for us.
1800’s was an “economic utopia”, that really is the joke of the day!
the scariest part of the whole hyperinflation scenario is what type of government follows after the downfall of the currency.
Poly
It’s a cop out to quote others out of context.
Before any kind of hyperinflation sets in, the US government would start a big BIG war somewhere to divert attention.
Gary,
It would really be nice if the Fed could get the CPI to even 3%.
Now before you say the CPI is inaccurate, it is the same measure they used 2 years ago. They have “printed like mad” for 2 years and can’t get the CPI to even 3% ?
So, until we get the CPI to 3%, let’s quit talking about hyperinflation.
Redwine,
It wasn’t a cop out or taken out of context, to seriously label the 1800’s utopia compared to the 1900’s, I find just so far from reality.
I mean really, you’re comparing those 16 hours a day pig shit shoveling days to this past century?
the CPI is inaccurate
[ At the time, the episode was labeled the Great Depression, and held that title until the Great Depression of the 1930s. Though a period of general deflation and low growth began in 1873, (ending about 1896) , it did not have the severe “economic retrogression [and] spectacular breakdown” of the latter Great Depression.[1]]
[Because of the large increases in U.S. industrial production, GNP and real product per capita, economic historians have questioned whether there was really a U.S. depression in anything other than profits.[2]]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Depression
Good night guys, same time tomorrow. Action over next few days should be telling.
Redwine, let’s choose to disagree and each make some money here 🙂
Mr Myagi, they already have. Why do you think Prez is coming back from his holiday trip to address the US folks.
Poly
“I mean really, you’re comparing those 16 hours a day pig shit shoveling days to this past century?”
Sure, but you’ll have to use your imagination and compare the nineteenth century in the context of equal technology, knowledge, and cultural norms.
My comparison was economic robustness only. The gold standard had nothing to do with 16 hour a day pig shit shoveling. LMAO!
It’s the slight of hand used, watch this hand that I hold up here everyone, (pay no attention to the hand behind my back, could be my fingers crossed or busy doing those things you don’t want to know about).
This kind of concern on a pro gold board is comforting, although the SPY fade is some cause for concern.
I am April hedged on my May options until we clear new highs (letting Theta do its thing).
It appears that the ECB and the FED are both jawboning their currencies, as oil prices are becoming problematic.
ECB is winning this session tonight, bring the Euro flat against the buck.
Gary, did we slip into the daily half cycle high last week?
Redwine,
But ALL currencies, fiat or not, go to zero. Why? Because the government that issues the currency doesn’t last forever. When a government is toppled or dissolves, its currency is no longer used. THAT is the driver, not the fact that the currency was fiat or not.
My point was that the fact that a currency goes to zero is completely irrelevant. Just as all automobiles end up in the junk yard is a completely irrelevant statement when you’re discussing whether or not you should be driving an automobile. I don’t care if my car ends up in the junk yard in 10 years and I don’t care if the US Dollar becomes worthless in the year 2090, those “forecasts” about my car and the dollar have no bearing on the argument of whether I should be driving my car today or spending dollars today.
(By the way, this currency has only been fiat for about 40 years or so, since Tricky Dick took us off the gold standard, so I don’t believe it’s true that the US Dollar has lasted longer as a fiat currency than any other in history.)
FWIW, the dollar has confirmed an intermediate cycle low having been set last week, so I now anticipate the 3-year cycle low to form in late June or so. This cycle count actually fits much more nicely with what I see transpiring in stocks and gold.
how did we get to be the reserve curency and the envy of the world.
Our unique rights that not even england had. property ownership is one and another big one is being able to patten ideas and inventions. the ownership of both, and the freedom ( freedom; the freedom to do what we should, not the freedom to do anything we want)
to take the responseability for the outcome and reward of the success. it goes with the ant farm annalogy posted by red. these have been erroded and destroyed at this point, but being able to find the nich you can succeed in and excel in is a big part of the formula
of course there is many more things, but i think these are huge ones overlooked and not considered
You bring up a good point, DG. However, I think that US military dominance could end sooner than we all think. I believe China will be on par with the US in 5 years or less. They have already beat us at our own game of capitalism and they will soon beat us at our game of military strength.
Not something I want to happen, but it sure looks to me like it will.
Wes,
I think it’s safe to say that the governments version of the CPI is meaningless.
If you want to put a lot of weight on housing or flat screen TV’s then yes there is no inflation. But if you are a real person living in the real world there is massive inflation.
The problem is that the liquidity isn’t landing in the housing sector or electronics sector. It’s landing in the commodity sector.
It’s why we are paying almost $4.00 for a gallon of gas instead of $1.60 like we were 2 years ago.It’s why the price of eggs or bread or cereal have doubled or more in the last two years.
It’s why we are seeing civil wars throughout many third world countries.
To deny inflation based on the governments flawed measure is to ignore the obvious. Ask any family struggling to put food on the table and gas in the car if there is inflation and I’m sure you will get a very different answer than what the CPI says.
if the FED ends QE2 early as suggested lately, does anyone see a mass exodus in commodity related investments on such news?
doc
so how does that effect gold now?
Gold is green now. It was up $2.50 a few mins ago.
Jeff,
We can expect gold’s run to peak along with the dollar low in early summer. This timing actually fits much better with gold’s cycle count, as it has tended to form 25-30 week cycles since the 2008 low rather than the old count of 18-24 weeks. As a matter of fact, this timing also fits with my outlook for the equity intermediate cycle as I now see them both forming lows sometime in August.
A very weak intermediate bounce by the dollar would work wonders to ease sentiment.
doc
thankyou
DG,
Great signal on the USD last week…seems like we are going to have a week or two (or maybe more) bounce
gary
is that what we are getting now?
Pima
All currencies don’t go to zero. Silver and gold currenies never in history went to zero.
“THAT is the driver, not the fact that the currency was fiat or not.”
If the currency was gold or silver it didn’t go to zero. The paper currencies all go to zero, eventually, and it isn’t always necessary for the issuer to go away. The USG, for instance, has collapsed at least 2 paper currencies so far.
“Just as all automobiles end up in the junk yard is a completely irrelevant statement when you’re discussing whether or not you should be driving an automobile.”
Automobiles have very limited marginal utility whereas money has unlimited MU. Huge difference.
Keep the faith my friend.
Gary: If Doc is right. do the PM’s just screw around for a month here, and not spurt until May/June? I guess there’s a burrito riding on it so pretty big stakes. Perhaps you will address this in your nightly report…?
A new intermediate dollar cycle would certainly give a big c wave run the room it needs to really stretch it’s legs!
DG,
That one is tough. If the prior daily cycle low is breached I won’t hang around as we will have a pattern of lower lows and lower highs forming.
It’s possible that the metals just grind around in a trading range for several months. Or like I said in the weekend report maybe they just choose to ignore the dollar.
Damn where is my crystal ball when I need it?
Redwine,
I agree with you in principle. What you’re saying is that fiat currencies have a life span. Yes, everything in the universe has a life span, even gold and silver!
But I continue to say that that fact is irrelevant if the object in question has a lifespan such that it will likely outlast our own lifespans.
The fact that my house will eventually crumble is a completely irrelevant statement when I’m trying to make a decision about buying the house or living in it. Yes, 500 years from now it will probably not be here. So what?
No one can tell me WHEN the US Dollar will go away. And the WHEN makes all the difference. Next year? Or next century?
So we’re at an impasse. You believe that “all fiat currencies go to zero” is a valid argument against using fiat currencies, and I believe it’s irrelevant. (I like my house and I’m living in it, even though I know that all houses eventually go to zero 🙂 So be it, we’ll just have to disagree on this one.
DG,
Pull up a comparison chart of gold and the dollar and you will see they can move in opposite directions… sometimes strongly so… for days or weeks. Check out late November, for example, and you will see gold spurting higher even during a sharp dollar rally.
I expect this intermediate bounce in the buck to be weak, and I expect PMs to continue discounting the dollar’s 3-year cycle low by getting on with their cycle movements. Gold’s current daily cycle is still young and should spurt higher any day now.
more on the relationship between gold and the dollar, one of my favorite tools
GLD/UUP (dxy not available)
http://oi56.tinypic.com/1117z3p.jpg
clear breakout and retest thus far. independently they both can squiggle around willy-nilly as far as i care, so long as that line isn’t violated we’re ..golden.
“So we’re at an impasse. You believe that “all fiat currencies go to zero” is a valid argument against using fiat currencies, and I believe it’s irrelevant. (I like my house and I’m living in it, even though I know that all houses eventually go to zero 🙂 So be it, we’ll just have to disagree on this one.”
You must be having a conversation with yourself. I don’t recall saying it was a valid argument against using fiat currency.
Obviously if the dollar goes to zero in 2090 it won’t be a problem for us, unless Gary is right about biogenetics.
I think there’s a good probability it will go to zero w/i the decade and you don’t. My opinion doesn’t rest on the fact that all fiats go to zero any more than your opinion rests on the fact that houses usually last a good while. Neither one of us knows what will happen but I’m fairly certain you wouldn’t buy land in Japan, devastated by the recent tsunami, and build a house on it.
I don’t know what will happen to the value of silver either, but that doesn’t keep me from speculating. I’m just saying that having a dogmatic faith in the dollar could cause serious economic pain in the future. Hopefully it won’t.
Makes sense, Doc. The PM’s could grind/rally higher for a while, with the blowoff C-wave finale coming along with the final dollar drop. Gary has stated that the final blowoff move pretty much has to be accompanied by a weaker dollar.
Well never seen 1186 comments and counting before Gary posted
Q
Is that a stretched Gary cycle?
new post
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How do I report K1?
Here is my case… For 2010, I’ve bought/sold 3,000 shares of UGL (proshare 2x gold) for a total cap gain of $24,000.
Then I received the K1, which has $41,500 on Net short-term capital gain.
So the question is, do I report both $24,000 (cap gain from trading UGL on my etrade acct) and $41,500 (reported from K1) on my Schedule D?
If so, this would suck since I didn’t receive the $41,500 profit from the partnership.