434 thoughts on “PORTFOLIO CHANGE”

  9. St. Deluise

    the long bonds seem like they’re about to break out of their consolidation soon which i think will get people worried about deflation again, temporarily. good opportunity for lower prices if one is patient.

    i think my personal “all in” moment for gold is when the 10 year (1.96% anyone?) either fails to make a new high here or diverges significantly on a new one.

    in other news bailed on my SPY longs on the bounce this morning at a loss of around 10 points. got a small buy order for TBT at 18.80.

  11. Gary

    St. D,
    This is just an observation, and you can choose to ignore me if you want, but it seems like trying to day trade the constant wiggles in this market is whipsawing your account to death.

    Usually if something isn’t working it’s a good idea to quit doing it.

    The market is being ripped back and forth by currency manipulation and bear market fundamentals. That’s a pretty tough scenario to make money in.

  16. intelliblue2000

    Gary or anybody – what is a reasonable $HUI:$gold ratio? What should it be for miners to be “undervalued” relative to gold? Or “overvalued” relative to gold?

  20. Farm Girl

    WW – Bad hearts can be fixed. I assume you know to eat plenty of eggs and animal fats, and substitue stevia for all sugars, including honey and any artificial sweetner. Also assume you know there is no relationship between cholesterol and heart disease (Harvard Heart Study, 45,000 men for 40 years).
    Here is an especially good reference – David Williams is very good.
    http://www.drdavidwilliams.com/legacy/order/reports/alt_prt_hrt1006.pdf
    Also important to keep stress levels down – “Freedom From Stress” by David & Karen Gamow is superb, especially if you are trading PMs!

  21. 86d4life

    Farm Girl,
    Isn`t that DGs book?

    Pretty cool on the fats info. We get so conditioned to hearing fats are bad for us, when the brain is made of fat and needs it to function. I just went and picked up 150 lbs of lake trout a week ago. Body healthy! So why did I trim my AGQ this morning? Something backfired! probably the aspartame in my diet mt. dew kicking in.

  23. Danno

    Current PM rally a bit long in the tooth. Bad news out of Europe apparently not going to let up. Thought we would get a breather and the dollar would retest the bottom. Not sure that will happen now. Golden cross in USD. Death cross in Silver. Gold could go either way.

    Still long gold.
    Sill long silver.
    But picked up some ZSL.

    Thought about buying UUP but will wait for now.

  25. William Wallace

    Farm Girl,

    I eat 100% perfect and have a extreme vitamin regimine, and yes I know that there are many factors that contribute to heart disease. Some of the main causes of heart disease are vitamin and hormone deficiences (especially Vitamin C & D, and testosterone). I am doing everything a human being can possibly do to not only slow the progression of my heart disease, but reverse it(although mainstream medicine will have you believe it cant be reversed). The main trigger of both of my heart attacks was a combination of hard work and caffeine. I am an amputee (above knee), so doing certain jobs is twice the work for me and puts a beating on my heart. I was sheetrocking and drank coffee (spiked my blood pressure and split an artery) when I had my recent heart attack, so no more coffee and need to take it a bit easy working. Thanks 🙂

  26. Éamonn

    William Wallace, maybe if you could get a device to monitor your blood pressure. It might be surprising to discover what raises and lowers it.
    Like cancer, I believe a large amount of heart disease is determined by your genetic make up

  27. Danno

    aljiowa,
    UUP is not without risk I’ll grant you that. I’m a bit skeptical of the huge gap low on UUP and the small gap above the current price. It’s possible the higher gap may be filled, followed by a sharp reversal and fill of the lower gap… before the last big dollar rally. Keeping eyes open for now…

    Not all gaps get filled of course. And the dollar trades 24hrs so gaps in UUP must be questioned. However, IMO, gaps represent powerful or unsustainable price movements. Which is this movement? Dunno. If I knew that I would be a trillionaire.

  28. William Wallace

    Farm Girl,

    The problem with cholesterol is a protein within it that doctors never test for during normal lipid panels, its called Lipoprotein(a)

    Lipoprotein(a) is what binds to the lesions in the artery. Many people who have heart attacks never know what high levels of Lipoprotein they have unless they request that test, there is one cholesterol test that covers the full spectrum, its called the VAP test. My Lipoprotein(a) levels were very high (in the 30’s) I brought it down to 3 with big doses of Vitamin C and the amino acids Lysine and Proline.

  31. David

    “An undervalued gold:XAU ratio is 4.”

    I think you mean an overvalued gold:xau ratio is 4.

    The typical range is between 4-5, with 5 being undervalued and 4 being overvalued.

    Of course, by that measure gold stocks have been wildly undervalued for several years now — the ratio is currently 8.5ish and it was 11 during the depths of the meltdown.

  33. intelliblue2000

    Gary – pardon the dumb question. The Gold:XAU ratio, does that tell me if miners are undervalued? I keep thinking it is something like HUI:Gold ratio, but of course, I really don’t know.

  35. 86d4life

    gld spent a lot of time pecking away at the 61.8%. Finally broke through. Agq was sitting on the same line at 67. 50% for gld at 170.12. DCL? Looks like a good place to start to reload.

  38. aljiowa

    SF, that video talks about ‘decay’ as being caused by an investment not having the same value after it goes up 20% and then down 20% (example, $10 initial investment->$12 after going up 20%->$12 then becomes $9.6 after going down 20%. This is not decay, this is basic arithmetic that applies to any investment. The decay in leveraged ETF’s is due to rebalancing and frequent trading, and possibly other reasons which others can explain…but it is certainly not due to what is described in the video.

  39. catbird

    I’m kind of surprised silver is getting murdered so much vs. gold considering how Gary has pointed out that the gold:silver ration has gotten much more bullish for silver of late.

    Yeah, I know silver’s moves are magnified, but still.

  42. Shalom Bernanke

    Haggerty,

    No, I haven’t added to anything today. If we can close weak and get a gap lower tomorrow morning, then I’ll start to add more miners. I’m also looking to short the S&P via SSO into a bounce, as long as SSO stays below $45.90

  43. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m going on a 2 week vacation starting next Wed, but feel I’ll get to top off my miners before then. I’d like to see GDX get to $59. Seems that might be a decent area to turn up the risk.

  46. William Wallace

    Today would be as good a time as any to add to miners IMO, gold is back near the 10sma and so are miners, If gold has began its move down into a DCL and draw down from here shouldnt be too crazy. If gold runs tomorrow say good bye to this level in miners.

  51. intelliblue2000

    I just really don’t understand the market reactions to Italy – if USD is going up, market is spooked by Italy, shouldn’t gold also be going up? Oh well, what a puky day.

  57. William Wallace

    There is a swing in GLD but not Gold futures. Keep in mind, in the last IC gold would pullback to the 10sma only to rocket higher. These are dips you look to add on people IMO.

  58. Gary

    The last daily cycle was of normal duration. The intermediate cycle was short. So maybe we get four daily cycle’s up instead of three this time.

  60. Slumdog

    The 1765 gap just closed. Hooray.
    I just went long gold at 1770 as I was late getting there.

    Gold may stomp in the gap, but the long direction will resume.

    I expect gold to be 1800 within a few days. Gold is now free to run without the problem of the exhaustion or breakaway gap.

    There’s a small gap below 1765, too, down about 5-7 bucks, but I think the clean up in aisle 5 is finished.

  62. Slumdog

    Farm Girl, off topic, diet pepsi caused lung cancer in my 30 yr old friend; she died in 1 year. The aspertame and other sweeteners are deathly.

  67. St. Deluise

    gary, appreciate your comment earlier.

    the /es trade i got stopped out of this morning was part of an ongoing system i’ve been working on, which has actually been working well enough through all this (relative to what my brain would have me doing anyway).

    gold.. let’s just say i’m not 100% convinced the “D Wave” is behind us. i’ll still be buying the dips but unfortunately until i’m convinced i’ll also be selling way too early from time to time.

    i did not buy the dip today.. perhaps in the AM.

  70. Poly

    Thoughts of D-Waves and collapses naturally pop into one’s mind the second their accounts go red or gold heads towards DCL’s.

    That said though, there is precedence for a very shortened and failed IT gold cycle, it occurred in 2008. I believe the macro environment is much different this time, I give it fairly low odds.

  71. Liquid Motion

    For those that may be interested in miners check out a chart of HUI for last 12 mnths…with solid line and BB overlay…(stockcharts).
    My observations….highs are achieved when BB upper is touched followed by 2-3 week retracement to mid or lower BB….
    Upper BB is achieved almost entirely during the first week of the month for last several attempts.
    Lows are stopped at around 500.
    Peaks are progressively higher.
    Have been watching since late Oct…and if proven correct….we could see (as Gary put above) another week of retracement not only in gold but also miners.
    Only to be followed by a higher high early December.

  72. gideon

    I still expect gold to have a C wave down. Since it reached 1804 on its B wave, a decent estimate would be 1804-389=1415. I do not think gold will be immune to a downdraft in the near future. As stated before, 1380 is another projection based on EW guidelines. BTW, I still say to hold the core position, this only concerns when to accumulate more. I do not intend to sell any until the secular bull ends.

  74. Danno

    catbird,
    Silver follows gold in a healthy way typically when the stock market is also ticking higher, or at least stable. If the market is shaky and gold is not working miracles, silver will get sucked down with the market… until that glorious day when PMs truly ‘decouple’ from the market. But I wouldn’t hold my breath for that day. You might turn many shades of purple first.

  75. Danno

    Liquid Motion,
    Gary correctly pointed out several posts ago that the HUI has formed a megaphone pattern.

    If the HUI does not achieve a higher high on this rally… (gulp)

    Personally I think the HUI chart looks like burnt dog poop.

  76. diana

    I’d like to comment about Great Panther Silver (GPL) Alex has mentioned GPL numerous times on this blog, but I considered his recommendations as more for trading than investing for any length of time.

    Here’s a great article on GPL that would indicate to me that it could also be a good “old turkey” play:

    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/10/27/fool-exclusive-great-panther-silver-from-the-insi.aspx

    The S&P could decline considerably from here, taking miners with it, but I decided to push the button while it is going down, not up. FWIW (not much?)

    PS Listen to Gary!

  82. William Wallace

    James,

    If the 10sma holds I would expect to see gold push above 1800 again. I wouldnt consider this a DCL, its still early in the daily cyle. I mentioned earlier that in the last IC we seen gold trade sideways a couple times so the 10sma could catch up before pushing higher…this may be the action were seeing here, flag then spurt higher. If gold loses the 10sma I would be looking for a DCL on the 50sma, 1730ish.

  85. William Wallace

    James,

    BTW, the cycle trendline is right below the 10sma, so gold would have to break the trendline to confirm a move into the DCL. If gold loses the 10sma it will break the trendline.

  89. Beksachi

    Poly said “That said though, there is precedence for a very shortened and failed IT gold cycle, it occurred in 2008. I believe the macro environment is much different this time, I give it fairly low odds.”

    Poly,

    Can you confirm why you believe macro picture today is different and does not favor a 2008 type scenario?

    Do you mean “2008 was Lehman (liquidity crisis)” and “2011 Nov is a currency/fear crisis”?

    If “fear driven”, then I guess gold has a chance of going higher this time.

  90. 86d4life

    Well I just told you, I swear they list the 50dma as 1701. And they call it the gold futures advanced chart. Maybe now forex is on aspartame.

  92. 86d4life

    Kal,
    don`t encourage him too much. He`s Italian and when he starts getting excited, he start`s talking with his hands and then I don`t hear from him for days and then I think he had another heart attack then I start getting excited…….oh, sorry, got a little excited there….

  94. KAL

    Haha 86d. I enjoy your comments and of course the banter between you all. I have a new job and blogs are blocked there (but not the premium site), so I sometimes get to read them at night, although I usually am doing well to read all the premium site comments.

    I see the 10 sma at about 1755, 50 sma at 1728. Sound about right? GC does seem to be bounding off the 10 regularly. I guess that has to do with the free fruit deal WW talks about all the time? 🙂

  97. William Wallace

    Kal,

    Thank you my friend 🙂

    86,

    You look exactly like my off the boat little old italian grandmother. You sound exactly like her too when you start cracking up and talking italian!

  100. ...at ease

    WW,
    86 is right, we don’t want you getting too excited and disappearing again. It’s in the blood, you can’t help it. 86 didn’t call you an Italian politician, that’s who did everyone on over there, same as here. They buy all their votes.

  103. James

    Thanks WW appreciate all your insite. Before the week started I posted the 10, 50, and 75 day moving averages all came together at 1727-1730. It seemed unlikely gold would test that after running to 1800 but now anything is possible. Still holding the trendline and 10 day.

  107. 86d4life

    LOL!! I have to shut my grill so I can put up with this again tomorrow. Good night all. You too, W2……….

    besides, I live on the hilltop, not the side!

  112. RJ

    Gary,

    It is going to be very interesting if the market turns over big time here with regards to EW. I see so many nearly identical charts across many blogs labelling this peak a 2 and C.

    It does appear that EW is mostly after the fact but like I said if the market rolls over here EW might gain some credibility.

    On a different note, Joanne’s Halloween indicator has finally crossed back over bearish, albeit just barely. 3 DMA crossing below 10 DMA for S&P

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3387040&cmd=show%5Bs208344815%5D&disp=P

  115. gold silver troll

    Gold barely down but silver getting hit hard again…the silver underperformance is getting ridiculous…have my stop limit in place to lock in my profits…will mostly get hit at open….I will chase it higher if needed

  118. ALEX

    DIANA

    I read your article on GPL, thanks.

    I actually did purchase a mini boat load in Mid October on the double bottom at $2 ( the first time there was 1st week of OCT on heavy volume, second time was about 2 1/2 wks later and the MACD was higher ,volume lighter, etc ) and have held old turkey since.

    I agree with you, It does look to be shaping up lately 🙂

  119. Rich

    FLIGHT TO SAFETY?

    As the Euro crisis deepens, the smart money is fleeing to the US dollar. The view on London’s trading floors is that Italy is too far gone to save; I expect the Euro to collapse in coming weeks and there to be a massive inflow to the dollar. Although one would expect Gold to be a save haven, dollar strength will drive down the spot gold price in the near term, and Italy will come under huge pressure to start selling it’s gold reserves. I expect the $1750 support levell in spot gold to be breached soon.

  120. intelliblue2000

    Gold and silver are not doing well. I always thought flight to safety means buying gold, but I probably thought wrong. “Safety” seems to be US dollar.

    Or maybe it is just a move down to the daily cycle low for gold like Gary said. Hmm… even though I am not leveraged, I still find it annoying.

  124. ALEX

    Just looking at a chart of GOLD, I can see how it could drop down to the $1728 area (50sma) and there it would sit on the bottom of a new channel line. It would still be fine…

    http://www.screencast.com/t/8mqGC1jyTC

    I drew this for a friend yesterday, so the “WE ARE HERE” is as of yesterday.

    $1755 is the 10sma…we are there now 🙂

  127. ALEX

    GOLD just went from $1600 to $1800 , a normal 50% retrace would be $1700.

    The 20 sma is at about the same area as the 50 sma ( around $1710 to $1720)
    so things still look fine to me ( SO FAR) 🙂 .
    Its the way Markets move…they breath in and out on a regular basis.

  128. Gary

    Rich,
    It’s just a normal move down into a daily cycle low. The come like clock work about every 18-25 days. Once they are finished then the bull gets back to doing what it was doing before the profit taking event.

    It’s way too early in the intermediate cycle for this to be anything more unless this was the move down into an 8 year cycle low. But that isn’t due until 2016.

  129. Rich

    Alex – yes I agree. Long term trend is up, but there can be significant draw-downs. PMs will go through one as smart money flees to the dollar.

  130. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m putting in bids in some of my names below current prices, corresponding to $59.40 or so on the GDX.

    It feels like we could go lower, but I don’t mind being a little early.

    Good luck!

  131. Haggerty

    Gary
    Given the action odds look pretty good that this is working it’s way in to a DCL as opposed to a shakeout before a final push higher in this cycle right?

  132. ALEX

    FARMGIRL

    I just read what you wrote about heart healing…interesting.

    I should google it, but I’ll get 1000 results, so I’ll just ask…you said this

    “…and substitue stevia for all sugars, including honey and any artificial sweetner. “

    STEVIA…Better than Honey? I thought Honey in moderation had good enzymes, etc. What is good about Stevia?

    Thx!

  133. Gary

    During the time the dollar went from 75 to 78 gold rallied from $1675 to $1800.

    Gold can rally in the face of a strong dollar. Granted not as much as when the dollar is dropping but it can rally because a strong dollar means other currencies are weak and investors from those countries are increasing their demand on gold.

    My expectation was always that this leg up would be rather modest, probably only to about $2000 or a little over.

  137. sophia

    From London with love…

    EUROZONE: William Hill, a UK bookmaker, make Italy 7/2 second favourites
    to become the first country to leave the Eurozone as their financial
    concerns mount. Greece are the 1/ 4 favourites with Portugal at 10/1 and
    Spain 12/1. ‘It is beginning to look very likely that the Eurozone could
    soon begin to break up’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe. William
    Hill also offer odds of 7/2 that one or more countries will have quit
    the Euro before the end of 2012 (1/6 that none will), and are 7/4 that
    Greece will have reverted to the drachma by the end of 2012.

  139. ALEX

    RICH

    I agree too, you only mentioned $1730 , so what I pointed out kind of matched your thoughts. That was reasonable.

    I find If I can put a reasonable target expectation ( like what if we do a 50% retrace to $1700)on a pullback, it just helps one to avoid selling right at $1710 for fear of a crash.

    And so as Gary mentioned above…he’s not nervous at this point either. Just 2 sides of the same coin flipping here. 🙂

  142. Gary

    Instead of trying to guess at an exact bottom wait till a swing low forms. That will give you your best odds of not having to weather much of a draw down.

  147. sophia

    Thanks Gary for your advice…I am improving my investing skills thanks to you and all the fantastic guys inspiration.
    Merci mon ami!

  148. sophia

    Just a small remark…DAX is holding pretty well considering where it started the day and with Gold and NSQ weaker…Are we bottoming out?

  149. Farm Girl

    Alex – Here’s all I know. White sugar or sucrose is a disaccharide that contains equal parts of the monosaccharides glucose and fructose. “Evaporated cane juice” is just rebranded white sugar. Glucose goes straight into the bloodstream, and fructose heads straight for the liver, where it is converted to fat if it isn’t burned off by exercise.
    Sweeteners with high fructose levels are low-glycemic because they don’t dump as much glucose into the bloodstream. But while fructose does not increase insulin levels, what it does do is radically increase insulin resistance, which is far more dangerous. Fructose creates more than double the advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs), harmful chemicals that age the human body, in the bloodstream than glucose, and it raises blood triglyceride levels, a marker for heart disease.
    Speaking as a beekeeper, I’m sorry to say that honey gets its sweetness from the monosaccharides fructose and glucose, and has approximately the same relative sweetness as granulated sugar.
    There are three grades of molasses: mild, dark, and blackstrap. These grades may be sulfured (made from young sugar cane) or unsulfured (made from mature sugar cane). Mild has the highest sugar content because comparatively little sugar has been extracted from the source. It has about the same glucose and fructose levels as table sugar.

    Dark molasses is created from a second boiling and sugar extraction, and has a slight bitter tinge to its taste. The third boiling of the sugar syrup makes blackstrap molasses. It isn’t sweet, because the majority of the sucrose from the original juice has been crystallized and removed. It contains trace amounts of vitamins and significant amounts of several minerals.

    Agave tastes about 50% sweeter than sugar, so you can use less of it. But blue agave syrup has a higher fructose content than any commercial sweetener — ranging from 55% to 97%, depending on the brand, which is far higher than high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), which averages 55%. White agave like Xagave has no more fructose than sugar, and a lot less glucose.
    For perspective, an average size Fuji apple weighs between 180 and 300 grams and will contain about 15 to 25 grams of sugar. The 25 grams is split 15 to 18 grams of fructose and 5 to 8 grams of glucose.
    Other sugars in foods and beverages include: lactose (naturally occurring in milk) – a disaccharide containing glucose and galactose; maltose (crystallized from starch) – a disaccharide containing two glucoses; and dextrose – another name for glucose. You can can buy dextrose on Amazon for $1 per pound, although it is not as sweet as sugar.
    Stevia, or sweetleaf, is an herb that contains a non-sugar chemical with a sweet flavor. Because humans can’t digest and absorb the sweet chemical in stevia, it doesn’t provide any energy or contain calories.
    The best brand of stevia I have found is NuStevia – no bitterness, no headaches. We use it in everything, hot, cold, baking, etc. Belly fat slowly melts away.

  150. ckpc

    Sophia,
    Interesting information regarding the “bookmaker.” Thanks for giving us a perspective from Europe.
    Where are you located over there?

  151. Éamonn

    Farm Girl, bee keeping sounds very interesting.
    Does the honey taken directly from the hive contain bacteria, fungi, viruses, or any other particulate matter?

  154. ALEX

    SIDENOTE, then back to the mkts for me:

    I was told by my local beekeeper that you should buy Honey LOCAL TO YOUR AREA, because the bee’s collect from all the local flowers that cause some allergies, and eating their honey can build up your tolerance.

    Not sure if that true or false ( and I dont have allergies anyways) but it sounded reasonable enough.

  156. 86d4life

    Farm Girl,
    Quite an eye opener. Thanks for the lesson. I was always under the impression that honey was supposed to be the `best of the best`. I just glanced at an article yesterday that was saying(I`m close but maybe not exact on these numbers)55-77% of standard on shelf honey doesn`t contain pollen and my takeaway from just glancing at it was that the pollenless honeys were manufactured. How deep does the rat hole go. I`ll just stay away from sugar and use my remaining cans of diet dew for targets.

  157. ckpc

    FARMGIRL,

    That was a plethora of information!
    I’m going to copy it and save it to my “Nutrition” file. Can’t thank you enough!

    Sophia,
    I’ll be in Europe after Christmas to celebrate New Year’s with my daughter, who lives in Paris. It’s a blast taking the “Chunnel” over to London. What a feat of engineering that is!

  158. sophia

    ckpc,

    I am half french, went to French engineering school in France so I am very proud of the Eurotunnel!
    Enjoy your trip, Paris is a great city!

  160. Driver

    Farm Girl,

    I’m interested in what you know about Sweet ‘n Low. Stevia is much more expensive so I’m mixing Sweet ‘n Low and Stevia when I need a sweetener.

  163. sophia

    no, to the US 30Y Bond Auction happening now…Apparentely, the 10Y yesterday had the biggest tail since Sep 2009…Just wondering who in his right mind would be a note at 3% for 30Y!

  166. ckpc

    Sophia,
    Got it. Thanks.

    GDX seems to be rebounding nicely at the moment. I added a little this morning after lightening up on Tuesday. Hope it holds.

    Yes, where is WW for the play by play?!! He provides good “real time” information.

  167. sophia

    US TSYS/30Y: Treasuries slide after weak $16B 30Y bond auction
    tailed a lot to draw 3.199% high yield and weakish 2.40 bid/cover but a
    okay 28.4 indirects and 15.8% directs.

  168. Ananyavrat

    Gary, central banks may sell gold to fund themselves and reduce the debt of their nations…..
    furthermore if europe goes into selling spree, gold top may have already formed and your d wave decline may be on for next 2 weeks….

  170. 86d4life

    At Ease,
    I suspect he gave himself another heart attack from laughing so hard at the last shot he took at me last night. It was pretty funny. I was still laughing when I woke up this morning. Of course, I`m easily entertained and I suspect he`s doing what`s right and just taking it all a little easier.

  175. William Wallace

    Gold looks good. As I mentioned last night, if gold lost the 10sma we would get a break of the cycle trendline and a move into the DCL that would take it to around 1730ish. Gold recovered nicely as expected and looks poised to get a move on.

  183. 86d4life

    W2,
    you were up too late, jerking my chain, weren`t you? You couldn`t wait to get back in the seat and start busting a move. We might have to take away your futures account and force you to play by NY hours. Or the choice may be made for you.

  187. William Wallace

    I told you guys, I won’t die until the gold bull dies…so if you don’t hear from me anymore you’ll hear Gary say for the first time “short the hell out of gold!!”

  190. William Wallace

    Everyone,

    You lift my spirits, it’s amazing…thank you 🙂

    I’m gonna get some more SMT subs now for G…doctors hear me talk about gold and they look like they are on morphine!

  191. intelliblue2000

    If Gary ever say “short gold”, I will eat 2 burritos and drink 2 margaritas and practice burping in my living room. Actually skip the burritos and just drink the margs.

  193. Slumdog

    Big Money J asked “Slumdog – how do you track the pit gaps?

    I assume you’re talking about the gap between the LME close and the COMEX close?”

    Ans: The gaps are all off of the NY Gold Pit daily high and low, measured day over day.

    Yesterday, the gap at 1763 area closed and I mentioned one below that in the 1750’s. That got filled today.

    Often the gap gets touched, top, bottom, or overshoot, like today.

    And sometimes the market stomps on the gap as in goes over and over the darned thing back and forth.

    That’s all there is to it. We’re in one of those back and forth swings. It will end soon.

    If the bull is standing, then up she will go.

    Another comment: 1800, a big round number. The market has just a few games it can play at the round hundred number. This needling in and out, above and below is common. Often the market retreats as it just did, for good reason this time due to the gaps. And imo, over a short time, a week or two or three, the market will be back at 1800, and when it comes back from this drop it will not even recognize 1800, but it will go where it’s going to go.

    But alas, the IMF will solve everything and all of us can tuck into bed for a cozy restful winter (except the Aussies who are at the beach).

    What is obvious that Gary sees is the market has patterns that repeat within a range of optional behaviors. He looks at cycles. I look at repeating patterns. Both his awareness and mine are available to anyone who wants to study this topic, the squiggles and highs and lows and the “beat” of the market’s heart, dispassionately. And the answers are there for the reading. It ain’t easy as nobody will be there to say you’re right or wrong in your conclusions. So, you gotta reach a point where you trust yourself, and you’ve gotta be choosey about what has the highest probability.

    I don’t win that often. I have an excuse, of course. Only Old Turkey has increased my net worth in PM’s significantly.

  194. Slumdog

    David OT…
    Only 2 options… on a 2nd post partum she fell apart within a few months, or, as she drank 1 to 2 6 packs of diet cola every day, in spite of my warning, the chemical in that causes lung cancer. Let’em sue me. I was afraid for her before she got it and told her so, and when she did get it, it was not detected early enough, as there is a method to stop lung cancer early, but as of 15 yrs ago, there was nothing for more mature cancer.

  195. KAL

    I’ve had a bunch of old timers tell me stirring a teaspoon of local wildflower honey in your coffee every morning wards off allergies. Those old farmers know their stuff. That’s all they had growing up was home remedies…

    GET BETTER SOON WW!

  201. intelliblue2000

    Off Topic – Gary, I was watching a show that follows a few different breeds of puppies from birth to 4 months old. I thought about channel and Toby. The adult dogs seems to have a hard time keeping up with the puppies, just like humans…

  204. ...at ease

    Slumdog, I am sorry to hear of your loss. I am sure it was not easy to go through. My husband lives on diet coke also. Doesn’t drink anything else and you can’t get them to change.

  205. 86d4life

    At Ease,
    I do try and substitute an afternoon cup of coffee for a diet dew, but it`s tough. addictive stuff.

    W2, you out there? How you holding up? Burtha come in to tickle your ribs yet?

  209. aklaunch

    WW, I hope so. I am thinking if the end of the world is not here Silver will perform moderately at best through the rest of this DC. I am thinking the move out of the next DCL will give everybody what they where hoping for to the upside. That is of course if the market can hold up?

  213. riley

    Hey ww hope you okay. Did you go into a-fib? Hopefully in sinus rhythm and can keep rate controlled. See many people with irregular heart rate due to heavy use of sinus sprays and caffiene. Anyway take it easy.

  215. St. Deluise

    call it overtrading but leaving gold position here at 1767 profitably, think we see a marginal new low to put in a decent centerpiece to the swing. there’s a pivot at 1727 i like and have an order at.

    hanging on to nugt.

    heading out to upstate new york for the next few days, don’t crash the dollar just yet WW!

  217. Danno

    FYI… dumped ZSL yesterday for a small profit. Dumped UUP puts for a small loss. It was a wash. Only holding long term gold and silver now positions. Difficult to get a bead on exactly what’s about to happen here short term. Needed to step back for a minute.

  223. William Wallace

    God Bless the brave souls who go all out, and those who lay down their lives for our Freedom. May the Lord give strength to the families they leave behind in this world, until once again united in glory.

    Welcome home soldier.

  232. MrMiyagi

    Hey kids..
    Been sparse for a while here, got the house done apart from a couple of minor touch-ups and it is for sale! Never thought it would end.. Now have to shovel 6 inches of snow which is exactly why we are looking for greener winters.

  234. William Wallace

    86,

    You believe in God, yet you ask me who you should pray for, it’s not me you will face on the other side of that door..He told you who you need to pray for – your enemies.

  240. 86d4life

    W2,
    agreed and I think you even realize that. The question, I guess, was more of a hypothetical, perhaps being a way of saying, do Americans need to be dying in the first place? Not that I don`t agree with your feelings all around 🙂

  243. Poly

    Hi ver,

    I’m now seeing a setup where by gold tops out of this new daily cycle and turns down into a failed IT cycle. So that implies a move below $1,533 and into the $1,400’s.
    Before we get excited, it’s NOT a prediction, just a credible “setup”, I trade probabilities not absolutles.
    As the daily cycle was extremely profitable for me I booked my profits in order to formulate a new trade plan. The two scenarios are almost polar opposites, the dollar holding many keys to the puzzle.

    Price had not declined too much with this bounce back up, so a coming DCL gives me time to plan. If we just move higher, I always ride with a core in my long accounts, so I’m exposed enough for now before re-thinking that scenario.

  244. intelliblue2000

    Poly – I apologize for the elementary question. When you and Gary refer to “failed IT cycle”, what does that mean? The intermediate cycle low is higher than the previous intermediate cycle low (in gold)?

  245. Captain Morgan

    WW,

    We’re praying for your health and share your prayer for our service personnel today.

    I love the Discovery Channel and Gold Rush in particular. Was involved with gas and oil drilling as an investor. Between that and gold mining/investing, it’s like being on a treasure hunt every day….very exciting.

    Get well and come home soon.

    Best,

    CM

  249. William Wallace

    I mentioned last night that the last time I got out of the hospital gold put in a big up day, and that I was going home today so expect another big up day…im home…lol

    Lets hope I dont end up back in there for the next pullback also 🙂

  250. intelliblue2000

    Poly – I see, since Gold is in a bull market, a successful IT low should be higher than the previous IT low. Stock is in a secular bear market, the successful IT cycle, the intermediate cycle low should be lower than the previous IT cycle low.

    thanks!

  252. ver

    Thanks for sharing Poly. It’s certainly an unexpected outlook given where sentiment but important to consider (especially if you have a system that is signaling it). Are you thinking the current or the next daily cycle will be the one to fail and lead the current intermediate cycle to rollover?

  255. Gary

    The only time an intermediate cycle has ever failed was during the 8 year cycle low.

    Why worry about something that probably isn’t due again until 2016?

  256. Poly

    Wait, not designed to freak anybody out. It’s my response to a question I was asked.
    It’s also just a “scenario” that has probability, not something I want to trade, but something I want to plan for.

  258. Rob L

    Éamonn

    I agree with you that Poly knows his cycles very well, but he is keeping is core and sold his position from his trading account, if I read correctly.

    For most of us here, myself included, selling IF the daily cycle fails is what we should be concerned with.

  260. William Wallace

    I assume the only reason Poly is even considering a failed IT scenario is because of the huge previous IT and the possibility of the dollar rallying. If you look at this C-wave you can clearly see that gold’s behavior has obviously changed and that a strong dollar only slows gold down. No, Pol?

  261. Poly

    The scenario doesn’t have to be a failed cycle, just a re-test, that would be a significant decline. We did have an IT cycle failure in 04. We also had complete retraces of major IT cycles in 06 and 09. Again just a scenario, my main hope is a continuation higher, just planning for both.

  262. YesLetsDiscuss

    Poly,

    Interesting. However, for such a big drop to occur, Gold will need to have euphoric sentiment first, before it tops. That means, it will have to go above 2000 in this DC.

  265. Éamonn

    I imagine Poly’s warning is due to a technical signal from his propriety system. Without knowing the system, its hard to criticise this call.

  266. William Wallace

    Poly,

    Looking at the 06 IT cycle I can definitely see where your coming from…but gold traded very different then. Every one of those c-waves topped with peaks and dropped right into d-waves, gold never even consolidated sideways…just pops and drops.

  267. Rob L

    Éamonn ,

    There is nothing stopping you, or anyone else for that matter, to lighten up their position right now and buy back in when the 3rd daily cycle starts with a swing-low.

  269. William Wallace

    Poly,

    Funny were talking about this today, couple days ago I was looking at those IT cycles you mentioned and my heart dropped for a second, I was gonna say something but not convinced enough to really even consider it, not yet atleast.

  277. Gary

    Pre 2008 gold was still in the 1st phase of the bull market. Now it is in the second phase where professional money managers and some of the public start to take notice.

  278. Captain Morgan

    WW, Gary and Toby,

    Are you guys familiar with the subject and book entitled Earthing by authors Ober, Sinatra and Zucker. Astronauts practice earthing/grounding to the electrical potential of the Earth, when they return from space travel. It not only helps them reduce the transient negative health impact of returning from space travel, but also has a great number of health improvement benefits for people and animals suffering from diseases involving inflammation. Gary you might want to consider it for Toby as well. Having a Ph.D. in pharmaceutical science, I’m not easily swayed by the quackery of some alternative medicine practices, but this does seem like a compelling case to at least take a second look (perhaps that’s why trading did not come easy for me ;-).

    WW, with your heart beat irregularities, has your doc considered an implantable pace maker/defib unit. One of my friends got one and is doing great…like you, healthy as a horse, except for heart disease he didn’t know about it until it nearly killed him.

    Cap

  280. Poly

    Gary, massive up and downside moves are hallmarks of late cycle bull markets too. The NASDAQ threw EVERYBODY off in a major collapse right before it went “to da moon”

  282. Poly

    Willian,

    I don’t chart pattern or recognition match.

    There has been a precedence during this bull market that clearly shows the 5 best performing IT cycles (blow off’s) had a distinct effect on the following IT cycles. The effect was similar to what I described in the setup earlier. It’s rather factual, I’m just pointing out a similar setup.

    To appreciate cycles is to understand how tightly intertwined each of the cycles are with each other, that includes all the cycles with varying length. Just like the ripples in a pond, a larger splash creates waves (cycles) of varying amplitude.

    Again, it’s not a prediction, so in this case it’s information people can do what they want with. I trade with the information I see in front of me, and hope to profit from any outcome. I’ve said enough, have a great weekend all.

  283. William Wallace

    Cap,

    Thats the only way you know when you have heart disease, after it nearly kills you, thats when they actually go in, the only time they will go in to the artery. There is a new MRI now that can actually see plaque in the artery, so people who dont have a heart attack can find out if they have heart disease now.

  285. Gary

    I agree. That’s why I think this particular intermediate cycle is probably going to be mild. Maybe a little over $2000. If however it were to drive up to $2300+ then I think we would see a true D-wave decline.

  286. MarkF

    WW,
    “War is a racket”. The soldiers who fight are cannon fodder for the military industrial complex and the private central banks. The wars we fight today are for the health of the state, not the health of the citizenry. We lose more of our freedoms with each vile useless conflict abroad. Until we realize that the wars we fight today are wars of empire, we are doomed to suffer the fate of all empires as they extend themselves militarily until our substance is eaten up.

  294. ...at ease

    MarkF,
    Serviceman are non partisan, they serve under the President, who was elected by the people. I would suggest you take your issues concerning the military institution up with your local, state and federal representatives. If you can’t be bothered, then just thank a servicmen/women for the right you enjoy to speak your mind.

  299. MarkF

    A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.
    As a fundamentalist Christian, I don’t have to leave my brain at the door and pretend that the wars we now fight are somehow righteous. I follow God’s word before I follow a corrupt government and its venal minions into wars based on lies. America has ceased to be good, and it is therefore no longer great. Our country was made that way by a populace ignorant of history, our Constitution and the writings and warnings of the founders of this once great nation. We’ve ceded the U.S.A. to psychopaths and no one cares as long as another Pyrrhic victory gives us a city to watch burn while we eat our pizza and enjoy the spectacle of the devastation we’ve brought to innocents. We don’t defend our borders, but we’ll lay waste to entire populations of other countries and put in one dictator after another to replace the ones who don’t play the game by our rules, and we call it democracy. Our Constitutional Republic will not survive an immoral ignorant citizenry who worship government and it’s manufactured wars and call that patriotism.

  303. William Wallace

    The 65wma was direct support throughout the past couple of decades of the gold bull until after the 08 correction, this c-wave was born on the 65wma, gold bounced directly off the 65wma for the last time (bottom of the b-wave) and never touched down on the 65wma again…gold’s behavior has changed drastically in more then a few ways since the 08 correction.

  306. ...at ease

    MarkF.
    The original purpose of our federal government was to fund the common defense of America and her ideals, domestically and in foreign lands. Rather than damning our protectors of freedom perhaps exercise your duty as a free citizen and contact your local, state and federal representatives to address your issues. Hmmm Ron Paul could use your help.

  307. MarkF

    Ron Paul is founding father material. We have been blessed to have some small chance to change the direction of this country by getting him elected. I pray God gives this country another chance to redeem itself.

  308. William Wallace

    I was just looking at some weekly charts of the gold bull from late 1976 to 1980, after the dramatic correction in gold concluded in 1976 (similar to the 08 correction), the gold bull was back and ended in a stampede in 1980…this c-wave looks almost identical (its amazing)…if this continues to playout gold is about to go truly parabolic and put in atleast a $400 rise from here.

  309. ...at ease

    MarkF,
    If you are that serious on your beliefs and convictions, I am sure Ron Paul appreciates your prayers, and could really use your help on his campaign and any donations you can give to back the cause. This “prior military man” served our nation during time of war. I am sure he could use your help to change things more to your liking.

  315. ...at ease

    WW,
    So we continue to trade with the dreaded D wave hanging over our every move during this intermediate cycle. arggghhh. No wonder Poly, tossed in his trading chips. He is saving his funds for the bottom of that D wave. Wonder if if will occur prior to the expected yearly cycle low (end of Jan/Feb timeframe) or it will become the yearly cycle low when it occurs possibly prior. Either way, AhYhYh!

  316. ...at ease

    WW,
    Interesting your numbers take us down to $1600 after an additional $400 rise on this intermediate cycle, as Gary said, we would never see $1500 gold again on this bull run.

  324. William Wallace

    at ease,

    Of course there will be a correction after a parabolic move, what the hell you think gold is gonna float off into space..lol!

    86,

    Doing good brother, sitting here in my puffy robe 🙂

  328. 86d4life

    I read a scenario for gold once that said on the final push the price of gold going up would pass Jesus on the way down! I don`t know how much good the gold would do us then.

  330. William Wallace

    Forgot to mention…had I been looking to add on yesterdays pullback I would have been looking for a bounce off the 75sma (if it dipped harder the 50sma as I mentioned couple days ago). Gold bounced directly off the 75sma at 1736, would have been another perfect entry off an SMA. This is why I stress SMA entries constantly, so others can take advantage.

  333. William Wallace

    at ease,

    Nothing is certain in this game, you cant ask me that…anyone looking to get in now would be best to enter at a clear DCL, although it may be significantly higher than now, and there is always the possibility the cycle fails and it goes against you.

  337. William Wallace

    yesterday laying in my hospital bed there was a 90 year old man in the next bed beside me….young kid comes in an asks him if he wants some fresh ice water (im saying to my self hells no because he was freezing from feverish cold sweats and had like 15 blankets on)….he says to the young kid “huh, speak up” so the kid asks him again, he says “huh, huh, what, what, im picking stocks, im picking stocks!” Little old man was talking in his sleep, the kid just gasped and walked out…lol. I wonder what stocks he was dreaming about, I was gonna wake him up or whisper in his ear and ask him what stocks he was picking!!

  338. ...at ease

    WW, Old Turkey folks will run through the D wave like all the other corrections, it too will pass and move back up. Only big one you got to worry about, is getting out before the bubble top pops.

  340. William Wallace

    at ease,

    Dont get me started with the old turkeys holding through D-waves…I dont have time to hold through D-waves! Maybe the little man next to me was an old turkey holding his gold to his grave!

  341. ...at ease

    Yeah, I hear you! Me neither, I got one year to make my short term goals and so far as of today things are looking good. stressful some days, but good. You should see me working at my new office space, hard to keep the sun off the notepad screen. And I have to be real careful making sure, I don’t get water in my keyboard. I work at this everyday from everywhere and anywhere. Just need an internet connection that works. I just can’t imagine, what would happen without an internet connection. LOL

  342. Farm Girl

    Not to make this a nutrition thread, but early Saturday AM seems a safe time to post.

    Éamonnn : “Does the honey taken directly from the hive contain bacteria, fungi, viruses, or any other particulate matter?”

    It contains pollen grains, royal jelly, and wax fragments. Raw honey will never go stale or rot, even after hundreds of years. Raw honey always crystalizes. All liquid honey has been overheated, and most of the benefits are destroyed.

    Alex said “I was told by my local beekeeper that you should buy Honey LOCAL TO YOUR AREA, because the bee’s collect from all the local flowers that cause some allergies, and eating their honey can build up your tolerance.”

    That is true, but even better is to find local bee pollen, usually tablets. Take one the first day, two the second, three the third, etc until you are up to about 8 tablets. If you hit a level that starts to cause an allergic reaction, back off a bit and stay level for a few days, then start increasing again. Senator Tom Harkin cured his extensive allergies this way, which is why he is the point guy for alternative health in the Senate. If you move to a new area, you’ll probably have to do it again.

    86d4life said; “55-77% of standard on shelf honey doesn`t contain pollen and my takeaway from just glancing at it was that the pollenless honeys were manufactured.”

    Sadly true. This “honey” is manufactured and does not contain any (or very little) honey. Buy from local beekeepers or at farmer’s markets. Or order exotic honeys like Hawaiian from a reliable Internet source. Supermarket honey is like supermarket “maple” syrup.

    Driver said “I’m interested in what you know about Sweet ‘n Low. Stevia is much more expensive so I’m mixing Sweet ‘n Low and Stevia when I need a sweetener.”

    98% chance you are kidding me, but just in case: http://www.bellaonline.com/articles/art15448.asp
    “Further research was then done on saccharin, because the FDA wished to ban saccharin outright but the food companies fought this (successfully). The National Cancer Institute ran studies in the next 2 years and found that saccharin was indeed connected with bladder cancer. People who drank only 2 cans or more a day of diet soda had an increased risk.

    “Studies show that the average teenager drinks over 2 cans of soda a day. One in 10 teenage boys drink EIGHT servings of soda a day. The average American drinks over a gallon of soda each week. With more people turning to diet sodas to control obesity, these levels can cause serious problems.

    “Pregnant mothers are especially cautioned to stay away from saccharin, because even small usage of saccharin could overwhelm the developing fetus’ defenses and cause damage to the developing bladder area.”

    at ease wrote: “My husband lives on diet coke also. Doesn’t drink anything else and you can’t get them to change.”

    Nothing makes you fatter than diet soft drinks, although any low-fat food is a close second. My brother ONLY drinks diet coke, even after having all his teeth pulled at age 60.

  343. Wav_ridah

    Few interesting things that I looked at tonight were the changing trendline of the Nasdaq bull. They got steeper and steeper as the years went on. Overhead resistance turned to support as the momentum changed. The corrections were sure to shake one off using these supports b/c they always cut though only to regain them. Overhead resistance tended to overshoot as well (late comers I guess).
    This brings me to the Gold bull. All I can say is the trendline may have gotten a bit steeper. We’ll see how this plays out. $2000 appears to be right at the trendline top.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/YsKW68OGFx53

  346. MarkF

    WW and …at ease,
    Sorry for the tone of my comments. You both seem like good guys. I have two sons, and I have taught them both the criteria necessary for war to be justified. I do not want them to be, as the criminal Henry Kissinger said of military men, “…dumb stupid animals to be used as pawns in foreign policy.” Those who serve honorably are to be praised.

  347. Danno

    Silver is struggling under resistance. The dollar is at support.

    Hard to say which will win short term. Common sense says the dollar should win. But markets are irrational.

  348. Driver

    Farm Girl,

    Thanks for getting to my question. (I was definitely not kidding.)

    My understanding on saccharin was that it was fine. I thought that the FDA tried to ban it for false reasons. They had given the rats huge doses of it, so of course the results came up poor.

    The soft drinks you mentioned all seem to have aspartame in them for sweetener, not saccharin. We stopped drinking those years ago because of the bad things I had read about aspartame and that the drinks actually made one fatter.

    Thanks for going over saccharin for me and providing me with your findings. Guess I’ll move 100% to Stevia.

  350. Poly

    Well if we get a $400 move from here I 100% agree a massive move down would quickly follow.

    But if you read what I wrote, a) primary thesis is gold going higher this IT cycle b) I will be exposed to the upside (besides my core) c) I guarantee you gold is not going $400 higher from here without me 🙂

    Just a note though, all parabolic moves have begun from the start of IT cycles, this one is deep into the cycle and approaching a standard mid point. A $400 move higher from here, on the back of a recent $400 move would be impressive to say the very least.

    That type of action I would expect or reserve for the final stage of the bull market. That said, as always we keep an open mind.

  351. slovakbeer

    farmgirl-
    I think we are like minded and thanks for the long post on honey, I will be sure to tell my honey about it. BTW try drinking green tea with fresh squeezed lemon juice(at least 1 tbsp), I read about it a long time ago, there was a study done that said the body absorbs alot(forgot%) more of the good chemicals in the green tea. Since I started doing it religiously I almost never get sick.

  354. Danno

    When in doubt eat fish, drink water, and throw in a few dark green vegetables for mulch. Pretty much the best anyone can do.

    Shoot for 1 gram of protein per pound of body weight. 1.5 if you want to be buffed. You’ll hardly ever achieve even 1 gram per pound of body weight in a day, but it’s a good goal. Don’t exercise too hard or lift too heavy. Known a lot of older fitness buffs with blown out joints.

  355. Jayhawk

    Farmgirl is taking your all to nutrition school and she’s SPOT ON.

    A good soda alternative that is very tasty and uses Stevia-

    http://www.zevia.com/

    Some other ideas-

    Make green smoothies. My wife and I have been drinking one a day the past year. (Google “green smoothie girl” to find a helpful site)

    Join a CSA or community supported agriculture share. You get fresh, organic produce every week and you support a local farmer. (We can’t grow our own veggies due to the soil and elevation) Our share runs all the way into mid Dec.

    Buy local, grass feed beef only. Find a supplier–Same deal…support a local farmer, grass feed beef is higher in omega 3 that salmon.

    Buy a share (depends on your location) of a cow. We get raw milk every week this way. Same deal with eggs.

    We do other stuff like baking our own breads, roasting our own coffee, local honey, etc etc….

  357. William Wallace

    Poly,

    I never said you wouldnt jump back on the bull, I just said you would be sick if you didnt as it took off without you, because I assume you prudently wouldnt take position again until a clear DCL is in, and if gold runs away a clear DCL may be significantly higher from here and a good portion of the move would be behind you…but you have your core position so I think maybe you’ll just puke in ya mouth a bit and be fine anyway..lol 🙂

    BTW, you know that I believe gold is acting as if it were the beginning of the IC.

  360. William Wallace

    Eamonn,

    I believe the move out of the 10/20low has all the characteristics of gold’s behavior out of an ICL, much more so than the move out of the 9/26 low. Although the 10/20 low is not labeled the ICL, by the looks of it, gold is trading as if it were, and im playing it as if it were.

  362. William Wallace

    Eamonn,

    BTW, I also think the last IC looks alot more normal, even in duration, with the last DC included, although cyclically it seems impossible. I guess time will tell.

  363. andybuji

    Adam Hamilton of Zeal would tend to agree with WW:

    Major seasonal rallies in gold: chronologically in a calendar year, the first starts in mid-March and runs 5.1% higher on average by mid-May. The second now starts in mid-June (it used to be late July) and climbs until early October, seeing gold surge 7.4% higher on average between 2001 and 2011. Finally the third and strongest starts powering heavenwards in late October before peaking an average of 10.4% higher in late February.

    Late October’s major buying op subsequently erupted into a sharp gold rally in recent weeks. And if seasonality continues to hold true this year, this rally is just getting started. Gold’s big seasonal breakout above its resistance line is nearly upon us, a very bullish omen.

  364. Rob L

    William Wallace,

    Saw your comment about your belief that the IC low was 10/20 rather than 9/26.

    If you look at a gold weekly chart for the past 3 years and set the RSI to 4 and the SMA at 30, it has been a pretty good indicator of a IC low for the past 3 years.

    It may be naive and overly simplistic, but the pattern of the RSI touching 30 remains intact on 9/26. Just a bit of fun here, nothing scientific.

    🙂

  368. Poly

    WW,

    So you feel the $400 wave higher is a continuation move from the last $400 IT cycle. I guess you’re making the case that the last move higher wasn’t worthy of a C-wave top AND feel we need to finish the c-wave right here.

    What I do like about your idea is that it’s better than the “we’re going back to nice gaining IT cycles” thesis. After a 2 year C-wave advance and a parabolic like move the last IT cycle, you would expect a continuation move as you outline OR the breakdown into a failure I outlined. That idea is much easier to trade.

  369. William Wallace

    Poly,

    “After a 2 year C-wave advance and a parabolic like move the last IT cycle, you would expect a continuation move as you outline OR the breakdown into a failure I outlined.”

    Exactly, one or the other. From what I’m seeing I’m leaning more towards the former right now.

  371. Danno

    andybuji,
    Zeal isn’t always right. And counting on seasonality is a sure way to the poor house. It might. And it might not. Too early to say.

  372. ver

    Poly, WW:

    How confident are you in the persistence of the ABCD wave pattern? A “2-year” C-wave does beg the question of whether the pattern is giving way to steady trending moves ending in a spike-correction-consolidation before rinsing/repeating.

  374. William Wallace

    Ver,

    The 1976 to 80 gold bull was very similar to this C-wave, after it peaked in grand style gold corrected big…and then began trading in the ABCD wave pattern. Gold corrected big again in 08 and then it was back to the 76-80 bull type trade that we are seeing in this C-wave advance that I believe will peak again in grand style…and then correct big again.

  375. Elliot Kebdust

    Gary, I just want to say thanks for the blog. Even though I am not a subscriber I do enjoy reading the comments and admire your conservative attitude about investing(gambling). For sure emotions will consume any account that is not managed with some type of ‘system’. Again, thanks.

  377. William Wallace

    Ver,

    It looks more like gold goes from the type of pattern that we see in what we are refering to now as a 3 year C-wave (which in reality is nothing at all like the previous c-waves of the past 10 years, but instead very similar to the
    late 76 to 80 bull pattern), then a deep correction followed by a long consolidation before resuming the ABCD wave pattern.

  379. Slumdog

    Alex, Berlusconi represents the worst of human society. He is obviously corrupt, a debaser of females, a self-indulgent asshole.

    He should be tried and convicted, just like Katsov in Israel, ex president going to jail. This man has compromised women and undermined a generation of Italian men and women. Italy has a serious cultural debasement of females. That SOB should be publicly flogged, to stop the rest of the stronzo’s populating that place. There are some outstanding Italian intellectuals, and then there are the majority of males who I think need to be whipped to get their minds reprogrammed, quickly. Israel stood up and slugged their ex president for rape and molestation. Italy just wants to have his money and do the same thing as he did.

    What is most surprising is why Spain isn’t included. Ever been there? The words “flojo” and “orgullo” and “caballero” define a long failed economic structure. 56 weeks paid, 45 weeks worked. Not viable. But inclusion in the EU created such a long bubble that they’re sunk and nobody chooses to see it.

  380. Slumdog

    I do follow repeating patterns. The gap of Thursday closed on Friday.

    And 1800 is a round number. So, we’re heading there. Each of the 3 daily pit gaps got filled. Hello, if that doesn’t say something, especially when coupled with DC and IC guidance by Gary and WW and Poly and other excellent readers here.

  381. Slumdog

    As to the price of gold, The daily close high in 1980 was $838 or so.
    Using a simple inflation calculator yields a number of $2188 in 2010 (calculator has not been updated online it appears). So, add on a few more bucks, like 4-5%, and we arrive at $2300.

    I think the high will be the rational $2150-$2300.

    That will be a fair match to the 1980 high, and time for serious profit taking again.

    The Great Doubling, 2000, is obvious and in the bag. That’s a non issue. Based on the trading pattern recently, the round number will do nothing to stop the rise in this wave.

    To stay longer than $2150 is to trade with stops at $1989 and then higher, to hope for a target number, whatever it is but in now way lose the capital gain.

    All imho. !

  384. NJ

    Hi WW:

    Glad to see you well and posting again!

    So if I read you correctly, you are expecting the bull to peak within the next couple of IT cylces? End of Gold bull in early 2012 with a blow off?

    thanks!

  386. William Wallace

    NJ,

    Human nature doesn’t change IMO, so if this 3 year bull we are referring to as an extended C-wave (which I view as something very different then the ABCD pattern of the last 10 years, and almost identical to the 76-80 bull run) is the same behavior that created the 3 year bull that ended in 1980, we may see this bull end at the top of this IC…especially if Gold does run to $2200-$2300.

  389. Danno

    This whole sad story has nothing to do with gold. It is all about the dollar. Does the dollar chart look good or bad near term? That’s the 64 million dollar question.

  392. William Wallace

    Eamonn,

    I think Gary made it very clear also that although gold may go to $10000, that doest mean that we will continue to have normal intermediate corrections as we have been throughout this c-wave until we get there.

  396. Danno

    WW,
    You are looking at a very small window in time. Gold can only resist a strong dollar for so long.

    That said, I’m not predicting whether the dollar and/or gold will move up or down this week. If I had to guess I’d say the dollar will drift lower on the high from the good EU news while gold drifts higher or sideways. But after that initial drift… I guess we’ll see.

  398. Danno

    WW,
    It probably depends on what condition gold is in when a dollar rally occurs. Is gold overbought or is gold experiencing in a solid, sideways consolidation.

  399. Gary

    WW,
    Gold is a long way from a final bull market top. Don’t make the mistake of trying to overlay historical chart patterns on today’s bull.

    Every period in the market is unique. What happened in 1980 isn’t going to happen this time.

    Once we see billboards everywhere advertising gold, lines outside the local gold dealer and all of your neighbors buying gold then it will be close to the time to sell.

    None of that is happening yet.

  400. MarkF

    …at ease,

    I really couldn’t let your statement that, “The original purpose of our federal government was to fund the common defense of America and her ideals, domestically and in foreign lands.”, to go by without a response.
    In light of your support of our unconstitutional wars of aggression in foreign lands, you forget that
    our federal government was primarily intended to secure the unalienable rights of its citizens against violation.
    We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
    There’s nothing in there about defending America’s ideals in foreign lands. Such an idea would have been anathema to our founding fathers who only sought peace and trade in their relationships with other countries, not entanglements. We were to be an example to follow of the prosperity, and happiness freedom brings a nation, not a harbinger of a perverted and corrupt democracy at the barrel of a gun in military adventures around the globe. The wars we fight today, the militarization of the police forces across the nation, the Patriot Act, the intrusion of government into every aspect of our lives, would have been considered gross violations of everything our founding fathers stood for. Sure, they weren’t perfect, but they gave us a wonderful country that is now being flushed down the toilet by the warmongers that lead us and the warmongers that vote them into office.

  401. William Wallace

    Gary,

    Your mistaking me talking about a c-wave finale, never said I thought the Gold bull market was coming to a end.

    Poly said…
    WW,

    So you feel the $400 wave higher is a continuation move from the last $400 IT cycle. I guess you’re making the case that the last move higher wasn’t worthy of a C-wave top AND feel we need to finish the c-wave right here.

  402. Haggerty

    I was having a soft discussion with some of the guys in my union a couple of weeks ago, explaining how the value of our currency and living standards are going to get a lot worse before they ever get better and how they need to put their money in Gold and at the very least some sort of commodity based etf or mutual funds.

    And one guy said to me, but the Gold bubble just popped. I was just like oh boy, where do I begin… so I suggested they buy peter schiffs book and called it quits

  403. William Wallace

    Gary,

    I realize every run is unique, but we know history and human nature repeat. If Gold goes truly parabolic now, pushes up to $2200-$2300, and then retraces $500-$600 in a D-wave we will be seeing 1980 all over again. The late 1976-80 run was basically the same length as this C-wave, was also a 6-7 wave run, and had a partially parabolic move before going fully parabolic and topping. Again, I am in no way suggesting this as being an end to the gold bull market, the 1980 run wasn’t the end of the bull market, but it ended in a drastic correction and consolidation. I am not one to try and predict anything, so why would I even suggest, or what would make you assume, that I believe the gold bull market is coming to an end?

    We will see together in realtime what’s going to happen moving forward my friend 🙂

  404. Gary

    WW,
    A push to $2300 isn’t even close to being parabolic.

    In 1980 gold rose 300% in one year. That’s parabolic. And that is what we will see at a final top, along with everyone you know buying gold.

  407. William Wallace

    Gary,

    You were referring to the last IC as gold going parabolic, now your saying gold rising $500 from here is gold not going parabolic…what are you trying to make me sound like im stupid? 🙂

  409. Gary

    I’m saying a rise to $2300 from here isn’t even close to the final parabola we will see at the end of this bull market. The Dow:gold ratio would only be at about 6.

    That’s not even close to the kind of over/under valuations we will see at a final top.

    So yes a rise to $2300 over the next couple of months will certainly be a spectacular move and it will likely trigger a true D-wave decline, but it won’t be a final bull market top.

    The next opportunity for that will come in late 2014 at the next three year cycle low in the dollar index.

  411. Éamonn

    WW, as far as I am aware gold went sideways from 1980-2000. It appears you are suggesting gold will do same if we hit $2300 in this IT cycle ie a 20 year consolidation, which I think Gary disagrees with

  412. Gary

    You said buying the correction would be a huge mistake so I assumed you meant the top of the bull would occur if gold rallied to $2300 and buying the bottom of the next correction would get one caught as the bubble collapsed.

  413. MrSu

    Haggerty,

    LOL! I know how you feel… A good friend of mine said that Gold is too expensive and he would only buy it if it goes to $300 !!!!

  414. William Wallace

    Eamonn,

    Wait a second, it’s clear in all my recent posts that I am suggesting nothing more than gold possibly going to $2300 and it triggering a true D-wave decline. and then a consolidation (never said how long I think the consolidation will be, obviously have no clue). I just pointed out that after gold corrected in 80′ it consolidated for 20 years, as you mentioned. Gary has said many times and even laid it out in nightly reports that he also believes that after this C-wave tops and it triggers a D-wave that it will consolidate for over a year or so.

  415. ...at ease

    MarkF.
    How’s that domestic tranquility working for you? How’s that general welfare working for our friends, family members and neighbors?
    My point made was simply that I honor those who have shed blood and will continue to support those who defend our founding fathers ideals.
    We could pick apart the Constitution, but I would prefer we simply abide to it. Government’s intrusion into our lives has infiltrated at all levels, not just the federal level. If you are adamant for change, get involved. For me I lived a life fighting for rights and freedoms, I am now “at ease”.

  416. Éamonn

    WW, I agree with you. A move to $2300 area in this IT cycle would be excessive, particularly in light of the last whopper IT cycle. We would likely have a sideways consolidation for maybe a year.
    P.S. Hope your heart is keeping well :o)

  418. William Wallace

    Gary,

    I realized that after I said that that Eamonn took it that way also (and others might take it the wrong way also), that’s why I removed that post. But what I meant in that post was I think it will be a mistake to think that gold will begin another C-wave like this one immediately after the impending d-wave bottoms…and one may be waiting a bit longer than anticipated to see gold make new highs again. That’s why I said “unless your a young turkey, that plans on taking profits when your an old turkey :)” Hope that
    clears that up, eesh!

    I hate when my writing scews what I’m trying to say, sorry guys. Gary maybe you should setup an SMT skype, nah forget about that I don’t want anyone to see me in my paisley boxers!

  428. NJ

    Hi WW:

    Thanks for your clarification and comments with Gary and Eamoon.

    So to sum it up:

    You think:

    1. Gold goes to 2300 odd = end of this C-wave.

    2. Sharp D-wave correction of $500-$600

    3. A year or 2 or perhaps 20 years of consolidation before another C wave begins.

    Hopefully I got your scenario right! 🙂

    Take care and thanks for your inputs!

  429. William Wallace

    NJ,

    “3. A year or 2 or perhaps 20 years of consolidation before another C wave begins.”

    I never said I think gold would consolidate for 20 years after this C-wave, I mentioned that after the 1980 bull topped and corrected there was a 20 year consolidation. I have no clue how long gold will consolidate after this C-wave tops and corrects, but im sure many of us are in agreement that there will be a consolidation that will last some time. Gary believes a year or more, I agree 100%.

  433. ...at ease

    WW,
    I sell into rallies as we move up, so I am not so leveraged the higher we go. Yes, I did sell some on Friday, but still holding plenty. I do value Poly’s insights as I do yours and many others here. However, I listen to Gary on when it’s time to step on the gas and when to lighten up or fold em. My main concern now is capital preservation. I have great gains, I don’t want to lose on the rest of this ride up.

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