210 thoughts on “PORTFOLIO CHANGE”

  4. Gary

    I instructed Gurvir to purchase more bandwidth for the site. The portfolio change doesn’t activate until the close so you have plenty of time for the site to reboot.

  10. TZ(8155)

    GARY,

    >I instructed Gurvir to purchase more bandwidth for the site. The portfolio change doesn’t activate until the close so you have plenty of time for the site to reboot.

    When you make a new post that is only an END OF DAY portfolio change, if you just say that in your tweet and on the message here instead of simply “portfolio change” then people wont panic so much. Just add the words END OF DAY.

  11. Anthony

    Who needs gold. I just did 5 hours of due diligence, to include reading the annual report of Mosaic MOS. i’LL TAKE A COMPANY THAT HAS A BREAKUP VALUE 60 PERCENT HIGHER than it’s current price and pays a dividend.

  12. Gary

    GZ,
    I wanted to spike traffic so we could test the changes Gurvir made this morning and see if that solves the problem. Obviously it did not, so we are going to have to add more bandwidth.

  18. TZ(8155)

    Gary, the problem can be CPU and poor programming setup instead of bandwidth.

    With a router that monitors bandwidth he should be able to easily tell you whether it’s the access point or the server CPU.

    In fact earlier he said the server CPU almost pegged to 100% and that would tend to indicate it’s the server. If it was bandwidth then the cpu would be fine cause all the requests would be choking higher up at the ISP.

  25. TZ(8155)

    There is a VERY good chance that this low here in gold holds for the REST OF THE BULL MKT. It is very consistent to with other gold consolidations after D wave type selloffs.

    We’ve just had a $200 selloff in FIVE days!

  28. TZ(8155)

    That doesn’t mean we can’t and won’t come back down close to this point in a day or month or so. But there are very good odds we don’t go any lower. Buyer beware, of course. I have a stop in place at that low.

  33. St. Deluise

    playing knife catcher a little with gold here, long from the 233 day SMA at 1580ish. long term hold hopefully. next fib MA is 377 at 1477. sincerely doubt price gets much lower than that.

    getting on a plane, happy holidays everyone

  36. TZ(8155)

    I will still avoid buying GDX or any stocks at this point although I will admit they are getting close to the critiera by which I would own them. As based on comparision against ‘straight metal’ and also, now, including increasing dividends.

    The high volatility of the markets also means that I want to maintain 24hr trading and exit ability. As this zone of instability passes stocks won’t have as much disadvantage to me.

  47. ALEX

    2006 C-wave

    Didnt we just do this again?

    Charts look the same to me (this is a chart I made a while ago…ignore the “yesterday” note.

  55. Gary

    Jmaes,
    Do you think you will be able to time a perfect entry?

    Any more downside is going to freak you out even more than you already are. So what’s the point of waiting, you won’t be able to pull the trigger anyway?

    If the reversal candle in the HUI is there at the end of the day you might as well take the signal because you certainly aren’t going to get a better one.

  56. Gary

    This is easily going to be the largest spike in hits on the blog in over a month. These always happen at or very close to bottoms.

  62. Danno

    On the last post did Gary say gold tagged 1535 in Asia? Was that a typo? I can’t seem to find that price on the charts. Thanks.

  67. Ben

    TZ is right… if the CPU pegs, it’s because of scripts which are running. Actually sending the data out over the broadband connection takes very little CPU power. A typical modern CPU can easily fully load a 1 gigabit ethernet connection.

    The problem(s) can be solved by redesigning a few things as TZ has graciously commented on — all spot on ideas.

  69. Elaine

    If Gary ever starts posting pictures of Victoria’s Secret models with the nightly report he’ll have to get his own server farm to keep the site up.

    đŸ˜‰

  74. ...at ease

    WW/Alex,
    I sure hope you are right about the 300 sma for C cycle beginning, as I would hate to be tossing all profits out at the end of the year if it’s not, hanging on here by my nails (should say fingertips, bit then nails off already). đŸ™‚

  76. William Wallace

    Fubsy,

    I agree, If we are looking at the 06 model gold will bottom on the 300dma and hold above the previous IC low, if the stock market continues to collapse and the dollar rally we will see another failed DC that will present an 08 type drop in gold to the 1400’s.

  77. fubsy_cooter

    It sure feels like we’re getting close to a reversal, but to my mind there’s more work to do to the downside.

    I don”t know how it will play out given that dollar sentiment is at positive extremes and needing to be cleansed, but it seems that after the massive run we had from late 08, that probabilities suggest a drop on the larger end of D-Waves, which would take gold down to the 1350 range (using ’08 as a model).

    Maybe it comes after another whoosh of a rally back into the mid to high 1700’s, which would likely hel serve to cleanse the love affair with the dollar, or it could be that dollar sentiment gets stretched beyond what seems rational, and we get a small rally in asset classes followed by the steep decline that a few folks here are calling for.

    The other somewhat likely possibility is that the presses get fired up again in earnest, and this d-wave is aborted at a point similar to the ’06 decline which would be around 1480 (appx 23% using ’06 as a model). We’re getting pretty close to that.

    That’s an easy stretch to reach with sentiment at extremes. Its often the case that these extremes get hit for a reason and surpass what rational minds would expect.

  79. Danno

    FWIW I just sold ZSL. That’s 4 for 4 (for SF Giants Fan who was counting). ZSL may be able to push higher, but I HAD to take profits. No way I was giving today’s gift back.

  80. ver

    GDX has been outperforming 2x GLD over the course of this entire intermediate cycle. The action over the last 5 trading days, including today, is making this quite stark. Hell, even TZ is starting to acknowledge the miners!

    That said, if this weakness continues we may see GDX put in a “catch up” day while GLD steadies just like two weeks ago. The relative performance of GDX vs. GLD over the next few days and weeks is key to setting the tone for the next intermediate cycle.

  92. Danno

    Wav_rida,
    Partly thanks to you spotting the H&S in silver yesterday, I saw a confirmed H&S on AGQ. So I bought ZSL and sold today. That increased my entire account balance by +6% in ONE day. Nearly erasing the -7% loss I had on UUP puts (which I still own! heh).

    With Gary leading this group and guys like Poly, WW, Wav_rida, Alex, etc… this teamwork stuff really works.

    Just keep telling us what you see on the charts!

  95. William Wallace

    Danno,

    Said:

    “With Gary leading this group and guys like Poly, WW, Wav_rida, Alex, etc… this teamwork stuff really works.”

    There is no team on earth like the one on this blog when it comes to trading, we flank the markets from every angle and kill it.

  106. SF Giants Fan

    From Peter Grandich web site.

    “I will wager any one of them (or a combination of all three) one million dollars U.S. that gold will hit $2000 before it hits $1,000 on the COMEX. I have arranged for the law firm of Lomurro, Davison, Eastman & Munoz of Freehold, New Jersey to hold the funds in trust. For once, let one or all of the most arrogant and often wrong gold forecasters truly put their money where their mouth is when it comes to gold forecasting. This offer shall be good until midnight, December 31, 2011 (I will donate my winnings to charities).”

  109. ALEX

    Sorry I’m in and out today, was on Vaca for a week and trying to get all caught up : ]

    ATEASE and 86D4LIFE and SB-Thank you too

    WW , 300dma, Bring it!!

    AO92000- Yes I bought today

    SOPHIA- Cookies : ]

  111. ALEX

    So I went away on Vacation last week and now theres a ‘sign in’ filter here.

    Is that the TROLL deterrent? : ]

    I was going to stop posting here completely again after the Gary Bashing exercises.
    Everyone’s entitled to their opinion I guess, but scrolling through endless INSULTS and CHEST POUNDING was tiring and a waste of time -I.M.O.

  116. William Wallace

    I just want to point out….

    When gold bottomed today we had a “10sma swoop” on a 5 min in effect, which supports a move higher out of the low…that swoop failed and broke down, which usually indicates a new low ahead. Gold didnt make that new low today though.

  117. ALEX

    WW

    Thats Because you dont sleep and you’re all over this action , day and night!! : )

    AT EASE

    Is that what it was designed for? I missed the last 4 days of posts here. Did Gary say he put it in place so he can identify (and block) wanton posters?

  123. ...at ease

    Alex, We did have a few trolls this week, so assume it’s for them. Hopefully they are done and we can get back to business making money. đŸ™‚

  125. Michael

    Alex, WW, Gary…et al.. this blog provides a tremendous forum for those that follow it to exchange ideas and trading information that many subs find extremely valuable to their day to day trading. It woudld be a shame to let a few trolls that will come and go with time, to interefere with this exchange of ideas by some very talented people. My suggestion is to just ignore their posts as those of us who have been following for more than just a short time know that their posts are unfounded, without merit and useless. Let’s not let them interfere with this great forum…

  126. intelliblue2000

    I think some of the “trolls” are used to forum like the Yahoo Message boards, where there is foul language, name calling, bashing and just plain bs (talk about how much money they made…etc).

    Ideally, it would be best of nobody engages the trolls and keep this blog respectful, useful and thought provoking.

  130. ALEX

    I know what you’re saying Michael-

    I think I was just really busy that one day and didnt have time to jump in after an hour or two and try to scroll through all the posts

    I’d to read whats already been said about the days action and what I might be able to add, but just found myself wasting time.

    but I agree, it’s good to see what others see and think , sometimes it triggers idea’s that would be overlooked.

    Gone for now..happy trading to our 24/7 traders – W W

  132. William Wallace

    Rob,

    Yes thats what I was thinking if gold bounces here, I will be looking for weakness and possible rollover at the 150dma. If gold hasn’t bottomed yet and is going to put in another failed daily cycle thats basically how I see it playing out. I mentioned that post blow off bottoms usually read -20 to -27 on the true strength index, today we are at -14.88.

  134. William Wallace

    If gold pushes up to $1595 tonight and reverses we will most likely see another down day tomorrow. Last night I mentioned that I took off my long futures from $1633 at $1640 because I believed gold was going to reverse again at $1645 and break yesterday’s low, and thats exactly what happened.

  137. riley

    WW you think we might get a long wick reversal around the 300ma like last time? I covered my shorts at 1605, and waiting for big reversal move. Cool charts Alex

  139. kmisak

    James R, just before I read your comment, I was thinking how LUCKY I feel to buy the Panther for 1.98 today. What a gift! she’s been real good to me in the past, and I hope to hold these new shares for awhile…

  144. Veronica

    In the past when my gold system does not establish a stop and has a strong downdraft after the buy has been made, the subsequent swing low can be bought aggressively as price usually rockets back up. I do think Gary and DOC are correct here and gold can be bought aggressively even though the panic may continue for a bit.I feel like I am getting an early Christmas present:)

  145. kmisak

    Yes, great deals today. ‘BG’ (Before Gary) I would be buying up individual juniors like mad; had over 20 at any given moment (top loser CVE:EC!)Today I have only a basket of 5 Cdn juniors plus a majority in HGU (Cdn gold miners large cap 2x ETF). Alex’s recent chart on GPR/GPL helped me rebelieve in it – my first ever PM stock in 2009!

    So today was NUTS; buying for me/partner/brother/sister/sister in law/two friends ! ! !

  147. TZ(8155)

    WW,

    How do you draw any significance from the 300dma?
    It hasn’t held or supported anything since 2005.

    I is my contention that the gold market changed starting in 2006 and became more ‘aggressive’ in nature (more participants; further along in the bull; higher slope, etc).

    This can be seen looking at a long term chart such as monthly or weekly with various moving averages. There is a clear difference in the nature of pullbacks and their depth/duration from 2006 onward (In all cases I exclude the 2008 selloff in any analysis – that was a special event).

    Thus I don’t understand the significance of 300dma. I can see it DID create significant support point before 2006, but not after. So again, why do you think 300?

    Personally, I think there is a 60-75% change that gold bottomed today and will resume going up. The other odds would be that we continue a bit lower overnight (running stops) then reverse. Or that we simply keep moving down significantly (heading to the 1400’s scenario)

    My 2.5x position therefore has 2 stops that I hope will solve two problems for me. Half my position has a stop approximately at the low today – with my assumption it holds.

    The other half has a stop closer to 1550 to handle a slight dip lower overnight before resumption higher. At least I will retain something.

    If both get taken out then I suspect we are headed for the 1400’s scenario.

    This approach increases my risk by another 1% from what I had today, but I think this are has a high chance of holding so I want to maintain some tenacity here and not just get stopped out overnight (which could still happen).

    Anyway…that’s what I’m thinking and doing.

  149. TZ(8155)

    As a bit of a teaser, there is an interesting technical argument for gold to rally up to 1640ish by friday close. Maybe this pairs with veronica’s comment above.

  151. ...at ease

    Veronica, I sure hope we are getting early Christmas present. I would hate to see this year having us go out losing. We have worked so hard for our profits. Been a tough end of year here.

  152. William Wallace

    TZ,

    The 275dma and 300dma supported every blow off correction over the last ten years, except the 8 year cycle low that occurred in 08′, I would say that is pretty significant. We fell just short of the 275 today, if gold has more downside I believe it will be the 300 that halts the decline again. Today gold bottomed on this C-wave’s lower trendline, which I have been saying for months now would halt the decline first, if it holds it holds, we’ll see.

  154. TZ(8155)

    RSI for gold today closed oversold (below 30). That has been exceedingly rare in this bull mkt (again, excluding 08 meltdown).

    We had one back in 06 during a D meltdown (one day before the bottom). Another in 04 after another D (3 days after the bottom). And one in 03, also again during a D, 11 days before the bottom.

    Interesting that they have been occurring during D’s but we presume this is a B. It’s only one indicator though but shows this selloff is pretty severe.

  157. ALEX

    In the first chart above…I actually posted it Before this drop..so ignore where it says “yesterday”..just look at the 2 new arrows I added.

  158. ALEX

    TZ said

    “…It is my contention that the gold market changed starting in 2006 and became more ‘aggressive’ in nature (more participants; further along in the bull; higher slope, etc).”

    I have had this thought in the back of my mind too (since 2008).

    It would seem that the slope would become steeper in the 2nd phase of the bull for the reasons you stated (a recognition stage ) ,so I have that in the back of my mind when I look at charts.

    And then the final blow off phase (straight up for 6 months or so).

  160. Phil

    Piggy-backing on Le Fou’s comment…thank you Alex for the charts and excellent TA. I had everything in front of my face for RIC, including my own DD, your charts etc….but I froze when it was time to buy on 10-4. BUT….GPL has been and will be a different story….

  161. catbird

    What concerns me the most right now is the lack of fear on this blog, both on the premium site and over here. Makes me think we have at least a couple more scary down days coming.

    This drop has been so quick that nobody has really had TIME to get scared.

    That said, I bought twice today per Gary’s calls. As Gary said, buying at the 200 DMA has always been profitable in this PM run. Not always the perfect buy point, but a darn good buy point, and gold breached it decisively today.

    My .02.

  162. Gary

    catbird,
    The reason there isn’t much fear is because we got out early and no one has had to ride out this correction. If we were trying to hold I can guarnatee there would be puke all over the place.

  163. Frank

    I think a “D wave” could have become more protracted and not so deep as in the past. So this could be part of this new paradigm as gold is maturing.

    I am just saying this to illustrate the uncertainty in all of this and trying to fit it into this model. The “C wave” was certainly different in 2009-2011 compared to 2006.

    If we had a short A wave then it certainly does not match the trend toward longer cycles, but in the end it just depends how you label these things. I hope it’s a bottom here of some duration.

    I see a lot of fear on the Premium site. You have to remember that many people there follow the instructions blindly so they are in cash. And it looks many failed to buy yesterday (today depending on where you are).

  165. Phil

    Gary is spot on per the usual. I decided to hold from an entry point of 59 and change. Not my life-savings but a decent amount. In the past I would have freaked out and puked up my shares on a day like today. BUT…with all that I’ve learned I actually added today and was excited about it. Gary, Casey, Stansberry, Nenner etc…all have it right when it comes to this bull….just hop on and prepare for the ride to get even more wild!

  167. ALEX

    Le Fou and PHIL

    Thanks ,and PHIL- I mentioned before that I have been loading up on GPL at $2 and selling 1/2 as it puts in a reversal candle up near $2.80 area.

    %-Wise thats sweet, but If this is the next C-wave entry (and we’re at $2)…this could triple+…so I am still heavy in GPL too.

    Older chart, still valid

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Lgds8qSW

    And it looks like we are on the Magenta line now

  169. ...at ease

    Spot On Frank, many did fail to buy, due to the fear of it still going lower. Gary said many wouldn’t be able to pull the trigger due to fear. Others have learned when Gary says jump, we say, YIPPEEE!

  171. Phil

    Alex

    Thx for the updated weekly. Buck 75 (if it gets that low…which I doubt) would be a no-brainer. I rode the panther last year from the low 3’s to the mid 4’s. This time it looks like we’ll be riding from the low 2’s to the mid 5’s….or perhaps mid 6’s……

  173. diana

    Could anyone advise me if it is better to buy the Canadian funds like CEF and PSLV in a retirement account? I am getting 15% withheld on some Canadian miners. Any advantage to have it in an IRA? Thanks so much. (Our CPA intimidates me, or I’d ask him.)

  175. Éamonn

    For those interested, McClellan does not see a bottom yet the the gold sell off.
    McClellan accurately predicted the big sell off in gold days before it happened.

  181. Bill

    james r, why do you think spot $GOLD will halt at $1500 (or dip below as you said)?

    I myself have no idea, am wondering though what you are seeing. Thanks.

  187. diana

    at ease – My Canadian miners, which are not in my IRA, deduct 15% from the dividends I receive, then I get to deduct that withholding from my US tax. I was wondering if having CEF in my US IRA would have any tax advantages. I assume they would still withhold the 15% on profits when sold (within IRA), but maybe I wouldn’t get to deduct that from my tax return because I would only be declaring income on distributions? If that makes sense? Thanks. I

  188. Bill

    Hi Diana,

    I’m thinking the same … would be nice to hear from folks … here are some comments I have that might help a bit.

    “Could anyone advise me if it is better to buy the Canadian funds like CEF and PSLV in a retirement account?” – Bill: remember CEF is 1/2 gold, 1/2 silver; PSLV is 100% silver; PHYS is 100% gold; GTU (CEF’s sister fund) is 100% gold. It’s up to you if you want all silver (PSLV), all gold (PHYS, GTU), or a combo (CEF).

    “I am getting 15% withheld on some Canadian miners.” – Bill: not sure what you’re thinking here because we both know that CEF/PSLV/etc. are bullion, not miners.

    “Any advantage to have it in an IRA?” – Bill: no advice for you – I leave that to others; but I myself will keep a core (buy/hold) position of gold in our IRA, and fast approaching is the buy time. I’m thinking CEF for my wife/I.

    “(Our CPA intimidates me, or I’d ask him.)” – Bill: my input is, find another CPA. A CPA nor anyone should intimidate you. I had a similar experience w/our brokerage acct – the acct mgr was a super nice guy, and knew more than I did, but he/I didn’t share the save views on gold, and I always hesitated to do anything in our acct because he was watching. Now he’s gone and my head is clear.

  191. Bill

    james r, thanks for that – I’ll keep an eye on that. It’s amazing that $GOLD pierced through the 50w EMA. 1500 sounds as good a place as any.

    FYI I’ve noticed + div on the $XEU / FXE charts in the PPO (MACD), so I think the bottom in $GOLD is near. $XEU had + div in the PPO last Dec 2010 as well, and it really blasted forward out of that. Maybe your 1500 is the magic bullet. I’m thining we’ll see 2000 gold by March. Although, Gary’s the Cycle Guru, and so that weights on my mind also.

  199. Éamonn

    Bill, thank you. That’s more like it. Looks like people are still buying more GLD calls, indicating the bottom isnt in yet for gold

    Now I want a 5 day sma for the Put/Call ratio…

  200. diana

    Bill – Please see my 11:02 PM comment. I have thought about CEF, but was just using CEF and PSLV as an example.

    Bill said: “not sure what you’re thinking here because we both know that CEF/PSLV/etc. are bullion, not miners.” I wanted to indicate that I get 15% withholding on dividends, so figured I would get that deduction also on the sale of a bullion fund like CEF (in the future).

    Bill said: “no advice for you [re: tax advantages in IRA]- I leave that to others; but I myself will keep a core (buy/hold) position of gold in our IRA, and fast approaching is the buy time.” I AGREE!

    Thanks for your response!

  207. EricH

    “My estimate on gold.

    A pierce through the 1500 and a close just above it.

    This should flush out the last of the weak hands.”

    I get a chuckle when i read stuff like this. ‘Weak hands’ was able to hold a move from 1760 on Friday to 1565 low in 4 trading days but won’t be able to handle another 65+ draw down?

    If we get a move below 1500, the folks that haven’t bought will be looking for 1300.

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