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Gary,
It may be time for you to dig out your Nasdaq 5100 charts from a couple of months ago. The breakout to ATH in Apple yesterday on the announcement of the iWatch release in April leads me to believe that Apple will probably rally into April carrying COMP and SPX with it. COMP to 5100 in April.
I think the iWatch will be a major disappointment. When it is released, there will be some initial hype followed by quarterly reports that will hugely disappoint the market expectations. The market for watches is very limited, frankly I do not know many people that wear them. I never have. There are currently a couple of smart watches out there now; I do not know a soul who actually owns one. I suppose there could be a mini fad (for a short time) just from the apple nut jobs who will buy anything apple makes, but it will be short lived on this latest product.
I kinda think we may need to go through one more intermediate degree correction before we get that push to 5100.
iWatch / iCrap / iDumb. Whatever.
It’s the products. It’s the buyback. It’s the threat of QE again that will prop the stock up.
I mean it’s NOT the products
Personally, I think it will be a disappointment as well. Thats why the rally before the release, “buy the rumor, sell the news” and why it will be a top.
Agree that we have a DC well underway now, then will make a cycle low. Whether it is a DCL or ICL remains to be seen. But I have to think we have one more ICl out there at least before the broad market gets any really dizzying upside. Those big moves come at the beginnings of ICs, not in the 3rd or 4th DC of an IC. When that ICL happens, buy the crap out of it and then scale out of your position… a bit after the first big up thrust, a bit at about 30 days in, a bit at some big round number, etc. But hold onto a bit of that position because bulls, even tired bulls, always surprise to the upside. Especially bulls being bankrolled by the biggest money printing effort in history.