After seeing Fridays action (AM, SPX -24), I am beginning to wonder about a possible megaphone on SPX from Dec highs, Jan lows that bottoms around SPX 1950 next week, This fits Armstrongs belief that Euro panic low (about 100) may happen next week. Possible after FOMC supports rate hike. Top in May for megaphone about SPX 2150.
Also, a little wacky, but I think there is a conspiracy between Fed, JCB, and ECB. First, Yen drops 30-40% to prevent deflationary spiral with Abe’s nuclear option, now Euro seems headed same way with Euro QE and Fed’s jawboning USD higher. Nikkei now over 19k from 14k year ago.
COT sentiment in gold (large specs vs commercials) is close to the levels seen at Nov-Dec bottom with gold/HUI/miners setting up for a dbl bottom. Could result in 40%+ pop in miners if we get a panic high in USD and $30 to 50 drop in gold next week.
arthurk, I don’t follow your reasoning re:
‘Could result in 40%+ pop in miners if we get a panic high in USD and $30 to 50 drop in gold next week.’
You think miners could go up 40% BUT gold could drop $30 to $50 at the same time?
Surely you would not get such a divergence – both more likely to move in tandem in the same direction?
Bob UK, what part of a dbl bottom then a 40% pop don’t you understand. The drop in gold is needed to setup the dbl bottom. Obviously the pop comes after the bottom.
It was not obvious from the way you worded it.
‘Could result in 40%+ pop in miners if we get a panic high in USD and $30 to 50 drop in gold next week.’ reads as them both happening at the same time.
I think we are going to get major moves in both the conventional markets and gold on Wednesday but I have not a clue which way either will respond to what the Fed does or does not do re interest rates.
One will go up and the other will go down IMPO but it is a coin toss as to which will do what.
The FOMC statement is the most likely trigger for the currencies trends to reverse. .
If that is so Gary and the Dollar then begins to go lower against the Euro and other currencies surely it would mean a spike in commodities? Or isn’t it that simple?
I think I will continue sitting on the sidelines.
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