Stocks have probably formed an intermediate top and are headed generally lower over the next 4-6 weeks. While commodities have likely formed an intermediate bottom and are likely headed generally up over the next 4-6 weeks.
For the next month or so traders are probably better off in the commodity sector while they wait for the stock market to form an intermediate bottom in late April or early May.
Are you worried that excess storage in the US runs out in May at which time the oil supply on the market will rise significantly?
I’m just looking for a bear market rally. Those occur despite fundamentals. They are just a reset of sentiment.
I agree with your comment but question your timing. I think we are headed for a test of $40 oil before your oil rally begins. I think there is still some strength in the dollar Bulls along with oil storage and the Middle East war which will all have bearish sentiment toward oil prices in the coming 1-2 weeks.
Ultimately I think oil will retest the 09 lows at $35 but I think this is the opportunity for the dollar to move down into an intermediate cycle low thus releasing commodities to rally for 4-6 weeks.
Aunt Janet said that cash isn’t a store of value……so I guess that means they will do everything in their power to make sure we have enough inflation.
I don’t know what she meant by that and, more importantly, whether her words have been misreported or misinterpreted.
Surely is the Yemen thing escalates then we could see the US Dollar rise – safety – and also gold rise as well?
Wars tend to do wacky things like that.
I bow to your greater knowledge on the conventional stocks Gary but have they gone down for 4 – 6 weeks at all since 2009? I find it difficult now to envisage TPTB allowing the markets to fall for such a period of time? I would love it to happen but just find it difficult to actually believe it could happen.
See the morning report today for what I think will occur in the stock market over the next month.
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