11 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY

  1. gary Post author

    It’s starting to look more and more likely that the counter trend bounce in oil (and commodities) may be over. If so then my expectation is that oil will test $35 at some point before the 3 year cycle low is complete.

    I was expecting a little more out of the bear market rally. Possibly a move to the mid 60’s before heading back down, but it’s looking more and more likely that oil is going to come up short of my original expectation and traders should probably now start looking for lower prices than hoping for one more pop higher.

  2. Carl

    Hi Gary as we speak, oïl jumped almost a full point from its low today – perhaps the bear rally has still some steam after all ? Isn’t there a seasonality that is rather bullish until early to mid-July for oïl? Will see.

    1. gary Post author

      Oil is too erratic to trade short term IMO. But I think the best place to be is on the sidelines. Both long and short are too dangerous right now. Oil is whipsawing back and forth killing anyone who tries to trade a direction. The best trade might be a strangle position.

  3. victor

    so, Gary, you do not expect to see NG at 3$ ? Also, if Iran nuclear deal will be done that would be a trigger for oil to move much lower…, do u think?

    1. gary Post author

      I really have no clue as to short term moves, but I do think longer term it has a date with lower prices until enough frackers go out of business to clear the oversupply issues.

  4. Bill in Tokyo

    Was surprised to learn that cycles say oil’s next step is down, because using just simple TA the downward momentum in XLE has slowed and even stopped so far. If it starts up and continues down again, that’d be 1:0 in the cycles vs. TA battle in my head, at least for the energy sector. 😉

    1. gary Post author

      Oil is right in the middle of a cycle here. It could go either way. That’s why i said I wouldn’t trade it either long or short right now. And I would agree, energy stocks could bounce and test the 50 DMA next week. That might be the spot to go short again.

  5. Jonathan

    The NASDAQ selloff on Friday is drive by semiconductor caused by the Micro miss and lower forecast. This reminds me of Microchip in October 2014, when the company missed and lowered forecast, and it eventually brought the semiconductor and the whole market down with it. At the time, Microchip claimed that the company had the ability to see industry trends much sooner than everybody else. Turned out, it was company specific not industry wide, and it created a great entry point for longs. This time, Micro blamed PC slowdown. We’ll see.

  6. victor

    Gary, what possible scenarios for metals on Monday because of Greece? US dollar should shoot up and metals down? What abt China’s move?

    1. gary Post author

      It’s hard to anticipate short term moves in the metals because the bullion banks can swing it where they want it to go. But gold is moving into the timing band for a daily cycle low so any pop if there is one will likely be short lived.

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