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In the meantime SMT members are getting creamed … how much of a drawdown should members expect. A stop should have been set.
Yes I’m bitching 🙂
We aren’ t even half in yet. What are you talking about? Did you ignore my position size and go all in with leverage when I told you to only go in with 20%?
Good to see but isn’t this a little inaccurate as costs have blown out over the last 10 years; and as such it takes a higher gold price to just break even?
When do miners ever break even, especially with a declining Gold price? How do we know GDX won’t hit single digits?
It will eventually, but not during this intermediate cycle. I just posted a chart in the comments section of tonight’s report of what I think is going to unfold over the next 6 months.
What if Gold goes to $900? What will stop GDX from continuing to tank? HUI is 113 and it was around 35 in 2001. What if HUI eventually goes to $35 again? What will happen to GDX?
Don’t be scared hommie!
GDX starting to give back this morning’s gains….wouldn’t surprise me if goes red on the day. 🙁
I am amazed how well Yields ($TNX) are holding here, its again totally putting emphasis
that the FED is going to raise rates soon. Its way to early, but I see yields going as high as 80, yes, 80. But buying here is dangerous. We will have to wait, but it front running the fed, and the last time
the yields like this held, on lower rates, we rallied for years on end.
What kills me is that we’re waiting for the trade of the year with this so called bear market rally. The trade of the year just happened with the likes of DUST moving 50% in 2 trading days.
A NUGT play out of the bottom will make that look like chicken feed.
gary,
To call a bottom in miners, you will wait for a swing low and DCL, correct?
Good luck picking a bottom. Many have been trying for 4 years and all have failed.
Rarely do bottoms happen on massive volume.
Bear market rallies almost always happen on huge volume. Heck we got 6 times normal volume on NUGT today so it’s already happening. Who do you think was buying all those shares that panicking traders were selling?
You?
Bud fox, how long you’ve been trading? Large volume spikes are often a sign of exhaustion.
Hopefully by now, all the weak hands have already panicked and jumped out of the building,. and sold their positions to stronger hands. Tepper??
Gary, you predicted all this long ago. Congrats on your excellent foresight!
Massive volume on NUGT?
That’s easy on a $3 stock.
Ask yourself what traded more dollar volume DUST or NUGT?
You’ll be surprised.
They are both signs of an approaching turn. Panicking traders are flooding into DUST and smart money is flooding into NUGT.
That line is getting old. You said that a 1 1/2 years ago.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/wp-content/uploads/NUGT.png
Hey, at some point it has to work, right? 🙂 Interesting how the metals bear market has already lasted longer than the 2008 equities bear market.
Bud:
NUGT is a day trading vehicle and only one measure of volume. Look at GDX, GDXJ or even the miner stocks themselves like NEM, GOLD, GG, ABX….they were all trading on huge volume. It is common knowledge that reversals happen on huge volumes….the long term rounded reversals are different.
If you’re that worried about drawdown, you have no business in miners, let alone 3X weapons of mass capital destruction. I’m buying gradually into HEP.TO, a covered call miner ETF that trades on the TSX. If gold continues panic selling, so be it, I’ll accumulate more for the long term – and get paid every month while waiting for the final bottom.
Based on the margin calls in China on the physical deliveries of gold, the sell off will continue I think. But if it doesn’t and For all the subscribers, hopefully Gary isn’t out climbing and miss the bottom call when it happens.
Yeah, until gold breaks 1130 strongly, I doubt the pain is over. Big miner squeeze this morning though.
aw, c’mon guys, enough with the $DUST and $NUGT — don’t you know you should be long the FANG
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digital age!!
digital wealth 🙂
I love it when people sound so discouraged. No question the imbalance in the markets is coming close to the end. I am with Gary on this. Gold is about to get a big dose of RESPECT.
Jim Rogers is calling for $960 Gold which would be a 50% correction. After Gold finally bottoms he thinks it will go to the moon when people lose confidence in paper currency. Not sure I’m buying into the Gold Bug Thesis….I don’t care when the final bottom is, or how high it goes, as long as I can profit from the bear market rallies. Buy and hold is for suckers! 🙂
did you buy
Of course it will go to the moon when confidence in currency is lost or if the world ends. It will be stored on the moon at that point. Too bad we won’t be alive to see it.
Yeah, the Gold bugs will be right, eventually, but it won’t matter….timing is everything!
Grand
I did my homework before I made that comment about bottoms and massive volume.
I suggest u look at SPY 2009 and GDX 2008 bottoms as examples.
Massive volume usually happens a few days after the bottom on a follow thru day per IBD.
yeah it is usually all within a few days. It is close.
Looks like you folks will get a swing in the miners today. Not very convincing swing, but a swing nonetheless.
Gary, Tom,
I do not yet see a swing in the miners (GDX). Is that what you see?
I think what Gary is trying to say and what some need to realize: Position scaling is critical to a trader’s success. He is long less than a 50% his full position. We may see more downside in the miners, but if you believe in the thesis, then this is the most attractive time to be long in 30 years from a value perspective. I am long now in the low 19s in GDXJ. I will add if we dip below $18 again to make it a 100% position. I am confident enough that we are close to a bear rally that I am willing to take some pressure at that level.
I think people were saying that back in the 1980s. Gold is likely going through the same phase and will retrace back to $900 area before traveling sideways to lower for the next 20 years.
Tom, per my earlier question, do you see a swing in the miners today? I don’t see it.
Tom – Even if your theory is correct and gold travels sideways for 20 years at $900/ounce, which would mean the dollar retains its value for next 20 years (impossible), the mining companies are still undervalued.
Yeah, it is right here.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p09785758616
Gary has likely had his subscribers add to their existing mining positions with a stop below yesterday’s close.
Tom,
I have always understood a swing (low) to require the high of the low bar to be taken out on the subsequent bar. Your chart shows an inside bar following the low bar. That is not a swing in my book. Why do you call that a swing today?
Don:
To get technical: The definition of a swing low is after one up day followed by a third candle that makes a higher low. In my book, I don’t wait for the third bar because your buy entry would be higher.
That being said, it looks like we are going lower today so any buy yesterday would be stopped out today if following my scenario.
The gold price seems to feel rather comfortable at this level. No nervous, choppy action. Makes me think it will go lower short-term. HUI had only a small gain yesterday, not convincing.