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I won’t be surprised if gold and miners get hit tomorrow … hard.
Agreed. I’m flat GDX and expecting a pullback…..and no I won’t chase if it goes higher tomorrow.
You won’t be able to time a pullback anyway so what’s the point of trying to avoid it. All rallies have brief pullbacks from time to time. Trying to time them is impossible. Holding till the weekly stochastics reaches overbought is very easily done, and will make one a lot more money than playing the amateurs game of trying to flip in and out during a powerful rally.
This definitely has more room to run, but GDXJ is already up 20% from the bottom. These rip-your-face off short squeezes aren’t constructive for the long-term and tend to burn out relatively quickly. Props for sticking to your call though, when all the chart guys were calling for 60 on the HUI.
All intermedaite bottoms start as short covering, then momentum players start to jump on the band wagon as more and more shorts get squeezed. This is why markets in the grip of a powerful intermediate rally don’t correct like markets in a range. They just get more and more overbought locking out late comers and trapping shorts.
GDX will likely fill the gap down to around $14.52 before it goes rocketing higher.
If this is an island reversal then that gap won’t fill anytime soon.
Only 30 cents south until the gap fills….we may as well go ahead and fill it sooner rather than later.
Thanks Gary for teaching and explaining the different aspects of a rally. Especially when to be looking at closing out of the trade.
Gary,
Run your weekly chart back to September, 2012, and see where you’ll put the next blue arrow: 9/17/2012.
Weekly slow stoch dropped below 80 the week of 10/22/2012, and stayed there until the first blue arrow you’ve drawn, 8/26/2013 — 10 months. Most of that time slow stoch was oversold — until the top of the most impressive rally of the past two and a half years, July-Aug, 2013 — a rally of yearly cycle degree.
Daily slow stoch is the one that needs to reach oversold — and stay there for a little while.
Gary’s right on this one; now is not the time to sell. Let your winners run the course!
And I’m amazed that some of you are still sorta/kinda whining about this short term opportunity.. Y’ all better go back to school cuz you don’t know shit from shinola, haha!
“run the course”…
Where does the course end?
Gary says it ends when weekly slow stoch says overbought.
I wrote what I think charts will look like at the end of the course on Saturday.
I reckon now it’s a matter of seeing where the course actually does end.
China does it again folks. Today is going to be fascinating for the DOW.
Chap on a BBC morning financial programme reckons the YUAN will be devalued by 10%
Gold is down a bit this morning. So those that were going to wait for a pullback are you going to buy this morning, or do you sit on the sidelines too nervous?
And if gold recovers and closes up later today what do you do then?
You have persuaded me Gary. I spent several hours last night and this morning going back over your charts, articles and listening to your thoughts on the Kereport website.
I am curious as to what happens today re the conventional markets and whether they will be pumping up the conventionals again today – whether they will be able to.
Fascinating week.
No matter what one believes, never criticize one for taking profits. There is no sure thing, especially in todays market.
The near term bottom is in for miners. They may pull back today or even for a few days but we are going higher here for awhile. I may add to a few of my positions today. I’m more interested in oil stocks and emerging markets–might put some money to work there.
Gary,
As I understand your cycles, we don’t yet have a weekly swing in Gold and are still on Week 19 of the intermediate cycle, still early enough for another decline.
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1
The daily cycle did have a swing and is now on Day 14, getting pretty close to a potential high.
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=GC
I understand the sentiment side of the situation, but am I incorrect in the statements above?
Thanks.
No weekly swing just yet.
I had a nice profit in NUGT and JNUG and Bull Silver x10, sold everything today …
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/501949#comment-501949
C-wave and 1033 on it’s way???
shake you off the train
Stefan — I agree with your overall assessment, though not with your wave count. I believe wave iv of — perhaps minute degree is nearing completion, to be followed by minor 3 to about 1033. And I believe the decline will be ~$100, which is around 61.8% of the total from the origin of minute 3 (1232 on May 18) to the end of minuette 3 of minute 3 (1073 on July 20).
Either way, what you call wave b (I call minute iv) is incomplete, nearing completion. B’s and 4’s behave similarly. One more push up into the 1130’s. You probably made some cash in yesterday’s DUST trade. So one more NUGT trade.
I worry when everyone thinks the same and try to envision maximum pain.
I think max pain would occur by giving back this entire rally and breaking new lows, only to then begin the move Gary is speaking about.
Stay strong and follow Gary 😉 We are close.
I love the slow stoch on the weekly. It helps you to slow down and think… always a good thing when trading. Movement does not equal dollars. The sitting on your hands is where the real money is made. If you look at this chart, 2/3 times you would have made a healthy profit in each countertrend rally buy buying oversold and selling overbought. We are now more oversold then any of those other times. Obviously, much more to be made on the short side, and we are in the timing band for a trend change.
Yeah…. it’s a good r/r. About as good as a GDX long trade has looked in 4 years.
Gap at 14.52 on GDX got filled sooner than later. Is this really everyone’s last change to hop on board and sell when weekly stochs get overbought, or is GDX gonna first retest the all-time low again?
Metals could make a lower low before moving higher but the odds are that near term (1 month) we have a bottom. With the market where it is and considering the valuations of many stocks, new money is going to look at value and some of the better quality mining stocks have huge value right now. If you play NUGT and DUST or JNUG or those leveraged ETFs, you really don’t stand a chance….Pick good names for trades or GDX at the worst and play them. NEM and EXK are good names with strong balance sheets.
I must respectfully disagree.. I’ve made plenty of moolah ‘swing’ trading leveraged ETFs. Just make sure you know what you’re doing (and that takes time, experience, and discipline).
And if you wanna play it safe when trading Gold and/or Silver stocks, then I recommend you look into Royalty Companies with strong fundamentals — an absolute must for any portfolio!
Who is buying $250 million of GDX in the aftermarkets? It managed to move it up one penny. I think it is best to buy the individual company. I think NUGT is going to hit $.25 or $25 post reverse split. There is big money making huge profits at the small investor’s peril by manipulating this market. September 11 is when you should be long gone from NUGT. That is when it does a 1 for 10 reverse split. Then the Ll time high will be 5000. Can it ever get there again?
Gary, in your recent posts last week you had siad:
Gold:
1) August Spurt to 1130 area, then << WE SAW THIS HAPPEN on WEDS August 12th
2) Fall to tag 1033(mid to late August),
3) 'V' rally to 1200-1235 by mid- to late Sept, then
4) Fall to below $900 by Nov/Dec, CLOSE DUST HERE … and …. Go Aggressively Long Stocks
5) many month of zig zag to regain 1000 into Oct 2016 (Stock market parabolic move during this.)
If this is what you wrote(summary by me) so why are you now calling for a GDX interim rally for 6-7 weeks when Gold has NOT yet gone down to tag 1033 yet?
Is gold now skipping 1) above and going straight to 1200-1235?
Thanks
It doesn’t look like gold is going to make it to 1033 during this intermediate cycle. It appears to have found a bottom at the 50% Fibonacci retracement due to the dollar topping. A further move to 1033 will probably have to wait till the next intermediate bottom, and there is a slim chance that the bear market may have ended at the 50% retracement.