We saw the same candle in mid 2012, gain 20% then loose 40% over the next few years.
The $64,000 question is will the next 3 year cycle low be lower than this 3 years cycle low?
If so, is really doesn’t matter.
Surely you would want to take advantage of any similar possible 20% bounce?
10-15% jump from the lows is already in the price…maybe $50 WTI, but I doubt it goes to $60 as many pundits have ben sugesting.
Even if this is destined to be another left translated 3 year cycle I still want to see a rally strong enough to be clearly identified on a multi-year chart. I think we can all agree that we aren’t even vaguely close to that yet.
At the very least we should see a 38% – 50% Fibonacci retracement.
metals to resume downtrend
Looks like stocks may have finally topped and commodities may have finally bottomed as well. If we see hyperinflation, then they both could still go higher from present levels though.
The CRB may have bottomed but without robust growth in the economies of the world, I can’t see strong and sustainable commodity markets for years to come. I am a retired baby boomer and it is a surprise, even to me, how much I have cut back on my spending even though most would say that my finances appear adequate. I now see the US FED’s interest rate policies and inflation as the biggest threats to those who have retired and who believe that they saved enough. Deflation is a cruel joke thrown around by out of touch economists and academics . There is no deflation what so ever at my grocery store. The US FED and it’s antics have scared me as their desperation becomes more obvious every time one of FED members opens their mouth with soothing words. I am plenty worried and seek opportunities to cut back further on the spending . The wife and I have agreed to stop buying one another birthday and Christmas gifts. This scenario is being played out among the millions of baby boomers that are no longer driving the economy of most developed countries. In fact, we are becoming much like a boat anchor that is preventing the economy.to move forward.
The Fed has made gamblers out of everyone with money that used to be in CDs , Money Market Funds, Treasuries, etc. Dividend Paying Stocks, Junk Bonds and Active Trading are the replacement for CDS , MMF & USTs.
…and going further out in the yield curve as well.
Oil resistance 50, 53 AND LOOKS LIKE MAJOR RESISTANCE AT 60.
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