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Gold new low. The place to be plainly is equities. US had outperformed. Now is time to put more money in Dax, and CAC.
There will be bears that says no to stocks here again. They have already missed lots of this bounce, Last week and tis, the best is Russell 2k. Until next March to May, Dax and CAC will likely do very well. Again most will missed it.
FINALLY: 10000% agree with you, Gary!
That’s exactly what I’ve been looking for –> riding a very safe, high probability USX bubble along with its ensuing SHORT gold down to DEC16 FOMC.
very very safe trading, one of the safest
…and also highly contrarian trading –> sentiment is not a linear function: usually it is ok to consider yourself contrarian by trading opposite to price action (buying when the market goes down) BUT WHEN A BUBBLE IS IN SIGHT THE STORY CHANGES: if one does so he becomes gregarious NOT contrarian –> just as Gary noticed in this posting, too many people have been anticipating the rally: beginners and the soft-hearted have feared shorting gold while it was the … safest, contrarian bet 🙂
I would still only trade gold short on a day trade basis. It’s 40+ days into a daily cycle and nearing a final yearly cycle low. If you get caught short when this bottoms it could rip your face off with a huge short squeeze.
Guys, stop being a stubborn pig. Listen to the messages of the market. And the best way is though P&L.
When you do something, and losses keep occurring. Reversed, do the opposite.
Over the last many days, its so easy to make money from stocks. On the little time that I shorted, losses occur very quickly. So ? Reversed to long.
On gold. On the few occasions that I long, I just couldn’t make money. So? Don’t long it.
Well, what if you long you lose, you short you lose? Well , don’t trade that market for a while, trade something else.
Trust me, throw your opinion out of the window. Trade it , let your P&L guide you. Don’t fight it. And you will have a peaceful time.
When I look at BHP, RIO, they look like they still have a lot to drop from their HS breakdown. If PM is about to bottom, they shouldn’t behave this way. Most likely, dollar gonna rally big. And fundamentally, it’s bcos Euros going down as ECB is going to print like crazy.
I must say that Martin Armstrong has been the most accurate forecaster in this long long long damn bear market in gold.
He is awashed by mails from gold investors who don’t know what to do with their PM investments.
He is convinced that if gold will close the year BELOW 1040 there will be a NEW low in 2016.
It really seems that this bear market is ENDLESS!!!!!!
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/39611
it is all about the dollar and what you are saying, Mark, is possible from USX’ perspective:
since AUG25 USX is in YC#2 which will most likely prove right-translated –> this will increase the odds that YC#3 will produce a higher high, i.e. an YCH higher than the YCH of the YC underway, while YC#3 will prove left-translated.
Thus, since YC#2 is likely to end in Sep2016, most likely the YCH of YC#3 will likely come about exactly one year from now.
Hence year 2016 can be another nightmare year for gold until USX’ 3-year cycle decline commences at its end.
All this correlates well with fundamentals: FED will slightly hike rates through 2016 and USX and treasuries will start discounting an ensuing slowdown of US economy to come in 2017-2018, so that USX will fall in 2017 while gold will SHINE BRIGHT.
copy & save Alex… ( :
🙂
hi, Victor!
Lol.
Talk about a quick flip flop here from Gary!!
One day he thinks 1062 was the bottom, then he quickly changes his mind after gold opens down.
Are you seeing things? Nowhere did I say the cycle has bottomed yet. Maybe you tried to call the bottom at 1062 but I certainly didn’t. I said we are getting close.
Gary,
I think many inc myself wonder what number ..you ‘might’ have for …’clos’e
thank you
If the bloodbath phase has begun they usually last 5-7 days.
Monthly chart support for GLD is 95-99?
With Silvers resilience, MACD getting close to crossing upwards, same for GDX, and with Silver relative outperfomance to gold, I think its worth nibbling on the longs a bit.
According to ZH 18,000 contracts or $1.9 billion worth dumped. Do u see the same thing?
If so, looks like the games are not over. GS is greedy … why not drop gold way way below support .. 900 or 800 or more while the market keeps bubbling?
I am not selling my gold position. On Monday, IMF will decide to include RMB into SDR. It is absolutely bullish for gold. today it is bear trap.
Now also Rick Rule from Sprott thinks that there won’t be a low in gold soon,the bear market will continue until there won’t be a REAL weakness in US dollar.
http://thedailygold.com/rick-rule-absolutely-manic-bull-market-in-gold-coming-soon/
dollar bull will be exhausted soon. you will see.
Buying Begin at 1055. Buying zone 1030 – 1055. Do not try to Pick Bottom or Top.
Cycle & TA we are due for a Bounce. Let Trade It first & price movement will dictate bull or bear. Importan is making money on both side.
Thanks Gary, but it seem you let the move down influencing your price orientation.
thats what Im trying to say Gary.. price orientation.
next week will be very interesting week.
My prediction:
RMB joins SDR (if refused, China will dump dollar like last time)
no QE from EU
bad non-farm payroll
gold to 1150
I like what you’re smoking. I’ll have some of the same, please.
I think we have a Buy American moment and a set up for GDX on Monday morning for an inverted hammer today. Safety seekers can buy over 13 EMA 13.73
still have to see a 100m + day in gdx, gld at mid to high 90’s, so if the blood bath we soon should see targets
-the real bloodbath phase will most likely be next spring, if USD surges in next leg up.
– USD topping for now, gold falling on its own weight ? That’s interesting, but maybe the result of holiday manipulation
Weird gold falling but NUGT only a $ 1.6 down …what gives ? at 1056 nugt should be down at 18.5 by now ?
Anyone long gold, and not long stocks, should have their head examined.
Ok il make an appointment tomorrow
Paul, I joke not here. Look at the weekly charts for gold and SPX. It becomes very obvious where the trend is going. I see Gold 800 and SPX 3000 in the works.
Gary,
at what level would you dare to buy a double etf long on silver’?
If we really are in the blood bath phase there could be a good occasion for a trade next week.
Not until gold forms a weekly swing.
Thanx Gary
Gary….Nice work on the portfolio, up 25% Cheers.
Your Gold chart, from an wave perspective looks
complete. Thinking, you will get that rally, only
might be stronger, than you expect, right now.
Overall, congrats……Bud
Gary,
can you give an example of a weekly swing…?
thanks