SMT YEAR END PORTFOLIO UPDATE

The stock portfolio is up a little over 25% for the year. I’ve taken profits on all positions and will wait for the next intermediate cycle low in January or February before I re-enter stock positions. 

The metal portfolio is up 15% for the year but taking a drawdown as we wait for the yearly cycle low to form.

I’ve not had any luck trading energy this year. The energy portfolio is down 10%.

The currency portfolio is up 2% for the year and I’ve quit trading currencies now that the currency wars have started to intensify again.

The Quest portfolio is back to cash and I’ll wait till the next ICL in the stock market before making anymore trades. The Quest is up 170% for the year. 

17 thoughts on “SMT YEAR END PORTFOLIO UPDATE”

    1. Gary Post author

      Only in the stock portfolio where the market is manipulated in my favor. And in the Quest portfolio.

  4. AlexP

    well done, gary.
    Good decision to close all stock positions too –> stocks have been too risky to ride.

  6. zkotpen

    HI Alex!

    Have you ever used the USD/CHF currency pair to help forecast the gold market?

    I’m having a look now — might be a little more accurate than the dollar index…?

    Cheers!

    1. AlexP

      Hello, Z!

      No, because of 2 reasons:
      1) general — gold and currencies are not a direct interest of mine but rather a side effect of employing intermarket relationships as an additional setup for stocks trading;
      2) specific — I’ve always looked at CHF with great skepticisim simply because it is the currency of too small an economy to lend it as a treasury asset in times of economic turmoil.
      The best confirmation came to me some 4 years ago when Swiss Central Bank desperately swore to print unlimited currency so as to maintain it pegged to euro.
      Secondly, the Swiss have lost their primary economic asset –> bank secrecy for wrolds’ tax evasionists.

      So…why should I trust using in any way (even as an instrument as you propose) a currency of a country which has lost its main competitive advantage and which is too small to provide protection thus rendering susceptible to volatility at times when investors need security ?!

      because of these weaknesses, I would personally never buy CHF except when I travel to Switzerland.

  7. Jay

    Why not ride stocks higher in December? You really think they would let it fall apart during Holiday shopping season?

    1. Gary Post author

      I expect the Fed will try to keep stocks propped up until the FOMC meeting, but after that we’ll probably have another crash or semi crash. That’s when I’ll look to re-enter.

      We’ve had one year now where stocks have gone nowhere. I expect most of next year will be the same. Once traders figure out that the easy money is nolonger being made in stocks they will start to put money into the oversold commodity markets.

      1. Mark

        Gary, Martin Armstrong said that the moment to enter a market is when both TIME and PRICE give the right signal .
        But TIME for him is even more important,what do you think of this theory?

        1. Gary Post author

          Gold has to complete it’s 8 year cycle low. In theory that won’t come due until the fall of next year. However the 3 YCL in the CRB is due now. Since I don’t expect gold to diverge from the rest of the commodity complex I’m expecting the gold cycle to run a little short.

          1. Mark

            This is VERY interesting!!! Martin Armstrong is expecting the low in the fall of next year indeed!
            Let’s hope he will be wrong this time!!!!!!
            Thanx Gary.

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