DOLLAR ANALYSIS

The dollar has likely started moving down into an intermediate degree cycle low over the next 5-6 weeks.

48 thoughts on “DOLLAR ANALYSIS”

    1. Jorgy

      Exactly. Traders whom follow price action without any predispositions will make out better long term. The problem with subscription services and analysts is they constantly have to make predictions about the future. I liken it to throwing mud against the wall and seeing what sticks. I’m not talking shots and anyone, but 99.9% of every prediction I’ve read over the last few years has been wrong. Nobody knows what is going to to happen next, period. They NEVER have and NEVER will. The best that anyone can do do GUESS what will happen using a system that only works 1/3 of the time, if that. The trend is your friend except when it bends at the end, which is why more money has been lost trying to pick tops and bottoms. Do yourself a favor, sell everything, get to cash and enjoy the holidays! 🙂

      1. Gary Post author

        Of course since it’s basically impossible to trade “after the fact” all traders have to make a prediction for what they think is going to happen 🙂

        1. Bud fox

          They do?

          Making predictions cause bias and expectations. When those expeditions don’t happen one finds reasons or excuses why those predictions didn’t happen.

          In this business, anything can and will happen. That is one thing I can predict.

          The best money I ever made was catching a trend. Yes, I missed the first 20% but the next 60% was easy money.

          1. Gary Post author

            The reality though is that one never knows when something is going to trend. You could wait and miss the first 20% and then end up entering at the top of the rally right before it goes back down.

            That is basically the reason it’s so hard to make money in bear markets. Traders wait until it appears that a trend is starting and enter right at the top of the rally. Then the next leg down begins.

            The reality is that markets rarely develop strong trends. They are the exception rather than the rule. Most of the time markets are stuck in consolidations.

          2. Bud fox

            You just need to watch monthly charts with a 10 SMA.
            The best trend riding tool there is. When price closes below get out.

            Pull up charts of Appl, AMZN, LMT.

  2. Mark

    Gary,
    this is a brave statement since almost the whole world is convinced that the US dollart will rise over the next year.
    Probably one of the few renowned analysts who think dollar will go down and the euro will go up is Charles Nenner.
    To me graphically it seems that this $US bull market is not ended,there is only a visible leg up developed over the past year,the previously movement looks like an accumulation,I hope,of course,that you will be right since this would mean that ,probably ,the gold bear market is over.

    1. Gary Post author

      There is no confirmation yet. The dollar would need to drop below the Aug. low during the next ICL. If it does that then I’m going to call it and say the dollar has topped. But I need that confirmation first before I make that call.

  3. tulip

    Gary likes climbing rocks and going out on limbs..no one else is getting close to even bringing up that gold has maybe put in a final bottom…death & taxes are inevitable as well as bottoms…

    1. Bud fox

      The graveyard is full of bottom callers. Just look a oil. Everyone got that wrong. Golds’ 4 year bear market has had many bottom callers that got it wrong. Gary has published as many as 5 bottoms calls that looked good but just never gathered steam. The fact is the bottom will never be known until many months have past.
      Monthly chart will be the only confirmation of a bottom and when gold is out peformingthe SnP500.

  4. tulip

    Gary I v much respect your climbing.. I just don’t get why you are suggesting
    a final bottom as often as you do……

    1. Gary Post author

      Again if you listen to the podcast (around minute 5:00) I’m not saying a final bottom yet, just an intermediate bottom. We won’t know if it’s a final bottom for a while. But I think a tradeable rally is brewing even if it’s just a bear market rally.

        1. Gary Post author

          Well we are 4 years into this bear market. At this point every intermediate bottom should be looked at as a possible final bottom.

  5. David Silver

    USD:
    Further retracement to 98.28
    Rates rising = stronger USD
    Above 200dma, 50dma and 40wma
    Weekly bullish candle close
    Commodities still trending lower
    USD down???

  6. David Silver

    Crude Alert:
    Price adjustment premarket Asia jumped from $34.73 to 36.06!
    Game chamger to manipulate technicals
    34.29 line in sand will be the tell.
    Hold then $43.54 minimum
    Break then $27.14
    Bull timeband lapse (Jan 29 – Feb 5)
    Bear timeband lapse (Jan 22nd)
    Watch premarket New York

    1. M.D. Cov

      Timeband expiration for commodities:
      Downtrend stop: Jan 22nd arena
      Gold 1025.25
      Crude 27.14
      Uptrend stop: Mid March arena
      Gold 1145.42
      Crude 40.05
      Downtrend FINAL bottom: June 22nd arean
      Gold bottom 956.20
      Crude bottom 15.78

    2. David Silver

      My hunch tells me:
      New York MM’s will try to hype the open
      IF this happens short it
      IF markets are a scratch then bearish due to Friday’s tape
      IF markets underwater dramatically then buy the dip
      Dont like the technicals and fundamentals in all markets but USD
      Play the ongoing tape action trend

  9. Will

    Even its vertical support is at 30-ish, i won’t go shorting crude oil here as prices are right on its major horizontal support on the quarterly chart at 34-ish…with a broken USD, anything can happen on commodities space..

    Tread carefully…

  11. AlexP

    all right, besides the long gold recommendation at 1050 on late Thursday, now the cheetah has also charged onto the Christmas dead-cat bounce in stocks.
    Thus:
    – long gold
    – long stocks

  12. chris

    Nice, hope PM and stocks sticks. Gold silver rallying now. Hope they don’t slam it down just before market opens.

  13. AlexP

    swing high in USX and swing low in gold.

    gold getting a slam before or shortly after US markets opening is not only likely but extremely welcome –> provides opportunity to scaling in to Thursday’s evening long position.

    1. AlexP

      …room for SPX’ dead-cat bounce up to 2085.
      On the other hand, it must be carried with a relatively small weight in total portfolio.
      Large room, though, can be granted to long gold position.

    1. AlexP

      Gary, USX has got no chance to move below AUG24 YCL of 92.52.
      ACTUALLY….IT WILL NEVER TOUCH SUCH A LOW LEVEL AGAIN, not even at the next 3-year cycle low to come in late2017-early 2018.
      The “never say never” saying does not apply here 🙂

      1. Gary Post author

        That does seem like the low percentage outcome, but if it does drop below 92 then we’ve got a megaphone top forming and the dollar will be toast going into the 2017 3 YCL.

        1. AlexP

          IF , IF and IF it does indeed but it wont, Gary 🙂
          there is no reason for USX to produce a quick failed yearly cycle (i.e. to move below 92.52) , either fundamental or technical.

  18. Chris

    Did any of you long copper? I longed some too. Chart looks like it could bounce some, plus I also long China. China recent strength may bode well for copper.

  20. Chris

    Gold is at a level it always finds resistance. If it could clear , good. If fail, gonna drop $10 in a flash.

  21. tulip

    SPDR gld bought 14 tonnes gold right after rate hike…..is the most in 4 yrs..??
    fed creates deflation ,creates inflation…..

  24. AlexP

    this is a weak dead-cat bounce in stocks while bearing all characteristics of the income resumption of the decline this week; it is best to close the stocks position on literally no profit while riding gold on a full position – stop oder maintained at 1057 for all position, i.e. right below break-even.

  25. Will

    Crude oil did a weekly ‘inverted hammer’ look alike last week…mentioned yesterday that i won’t go short crude now…it’s too precarious as it just hit its major quarterly horizontal resistance at 34-ish and bounced off…

    The risk is on the upsides in coming days…and…likewise for the general commodities!

  26. zkotpen

    My indicators suggest that gold has not yet put in an intermediate bottom. The current move up may go above 1088, but it may also be a triangle and remain range-bound for a few more days.

    I have given a lot of thought to Gary’s characterization of this bear market as “cyclical” — trying to arrive at that conclusion by technical analysis. Even if gold is getting ready to put in a ICL = YCL, my cycle indicators suggest an eventual cyclical regression to the mean is in the cards. It’s just not there yet.

    1. Gary Post author

      So far gold is just doing what all D-wave’s have done by retesting the previous C-wave top. Nothing out of th ordinary in that.

  27. zkotpen

    What I mean is, a cyclical bear should eventually test the 200 month SMA. 200 months is 16 years, 8 months of monthly data. The long (cycle) term SMA.

    Gary, you have mentioned the 200 period sample size regularly, especially 200 weeks and 200 days, which has gotten me to do my own style of analysis using those larger sample sizes. Analysis also works on 200 months and 200 periods on your INTRA-day chart — that’s where I can see the fractals in full glory!

    The 200 month SMA gives me a very clear picture of the 2000’s gold bull, with three key peaks: 2006, 2008, and 2011. These peaks do not make complete sense to me at the weekly and daily degrees — they’re only a partial picture. But it’s the 200 month SMA that really contextualizes the 2011 peak — the all-time high in gold looks almost like an aberration on the charts of lesser degree.

    Of course, that’s in the past. In the present, I apply the same analysis, on the weekly and daily charts, that lead me to believe that the current ICL and YCL are one more move down in the near future. The 200 day SMA is looking more like in a consolidation like we had to the May, 2015, peak. Likewise on the 200 week SMA, though the daily chart makes more sense to me.

    So that’s my real-time take. We’ll see how it pans out…

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