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Gary – nice video big picture perspective. Are you buying stock ETFs today or waiting until we have confirmation of a DCL??
See the latest post on the website.
If what you are saying in the video is correct then this would mean ‘the banks’ operate jointly to hand the bad over to Hedge funds and retail traders. That seems far-fetched, because a) it suggests a conspiracy of all major banks, and b) there is not sufficient $ in Hedge funds and retail traders to buy up all these paper assets to give the banks an exit at the top. Your own argument is that the retail traders and hedge funds don’t have enough buying power to push a market to new highs; likewise they don’t have the buying power to provide an exit to ‘the banks’. It’s much more likely that big banks hand the bag to each other and try to outsmart everybody else including other banks.
Realistically the banks would be unloading all the way back up during the double top. But I’ve seen this too many times that a top or bottom will occur as a marginal breakout or breakdown that fails to follow through. That isn’t conincidence.
A thought on gold. This market reminds me of 2008. Not to say that there will be a crash in the fall. BUT: 2008 the PMs rallied earlier in the year. I think I remember Silver Wheaton going to $ 20 in the spring exactly where it topped out just now), only to drop over the course of the summer and crash to $2.50. Absolutely nobody saw that coming. From $2.50 in Nov of 2008 it became a twenty-bagger in just 3.5 years. I think there is way too much bullishness in the gold market. Even Goldman Sachs reversed course and became bullish, at least mid-term. I wish it were true, and everybody would agree and then bet and win on the same horse, but usually it doesn’t work this way. My best educated guess—we’ll probably see new lows before we see new highs or at least we see new lows (we might see higher highs first, but I doubt it).
And one more thought about the idea that only amateur retail traders could possibly buy into this being the top…
Both Icahn and Soros are short the market. Apparently they believe it’s going South—if not now, then soon. None of them can be considered an amateur retail trader though. I suggest that, for the sake of your subscribers, you put your own opinion in proportion. Who can compare to Soros and Icahn—there experience, their know-how, their resources, their contacts in ‘high places’. None of us for sure.
Buffett is buying….
Soros is 85… I have a feeling he might be losing it. Why do these guys never retire?
Buffet almost never sells..
Thats why he is making money.
Check how much money was on the short side and on the long side in the last 15 years.
Icahn seems to have lost his touch. Just take a look at how IEP has done the past few years. He has a lot of positions under water. Go to gurufocus and you can see all of their holdings and average cost.
Alex, I think you and the bears are seeing wrongly. If its just the banks rallying, market may not be bullish. Look at 2000-2001 tech burst. Banks up, but index down. But now, Banks and Semis are doing very well. Look at semis. It is far from all time highs. And from what i look, it is screaming that it wants to go highly. It will support the market now, and once it is about to go parabolic, it will lead nasdaq to bubble phase. Yes parabolic, maybe next year? Who knows. But bottom line, market is only experiencing a painful sideway correction now to frustrate bulls and bears. Eventually, bulls win.
SPX since 1800 to 2100 have trapped many bears. They have covered. So now this range will bring them back. And then squeeze them again at all time highs.
Nice video Gary. Very interesting observation about double tops. But you had me at “markets are rigged” 🙂 Big banks, the Fed, anyone with the power to manipulate the markets are doing it, and why wouldn’t they.
Can’t believe you missed the most important thing in “today’s” market, which is not like our past markets and that is simply the involvement of central banks across the world. i think your smart enough to figure where I’m going. I leave it at that. Rolling top to drop to spy 186 and then I’ll reassess.
The $FAW all world index is making lower lows and lower highs and had been highly correlated to the weekly S&P 500 except for the last year.
It will be difficult to make ATH’s in US markets while global markets are clearly in a downtrend.
http://schrts.co/6NIwYl
All global markets completed their 7 YCL back in February. They will no longer be making any more lower lows.
Thx.
You must have gotten ur crystal ball fixed.
The NASDAQ is making weekly lower lows and lower highs.
http://schrts.co/RI7EGb
Right on.
Bulls, Bears, crystal bolls, predictions, etc,
Follow the price.. get the trend, buy in tranches, enjoy the ride..