11 thoughts on “IF EVERYONE IS BEARISH WILL THEY ALL BE RIGHT?”

  1. duckwhorocks1

    Gary have you seen the COT?
    How do you reconcile
    300,000 NET long from Large Speculators in Gold as everyone is bearish?
    2:1 Long Vs short for the small Specs in Gold is equal to everyone is bearish?
    2.5:1 Long vs Short in Silver for small Specs is equal to everyone is bearish?

    Just wondering what sentiment/positioning numbers you are using.
    Thanks,

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m using actual sentiment numbers from sentimentrader.com.

      The large specs have had a huge long position for the better part of the last 7 months. The COT isn’t a sentiment indicator.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Thanks.
        The COT is a positioning indicator but it does indicate sentiment.
        If you see the bottom in Gold it formed with the small Specs having an all time high short position.

        Whichever way you cut it…that positioning will be unwinded.
        I think a “surprise” rate hike by the Fed will be the impetus for a $150 down move in Gold.

        1. Gary Post author

          The Fed has never hiked rates with the odds under 75%. They are currently at 12%.

          I seriously doubt the Fed would risk such a massive surprise and risk crashing the stock market ahead of the elections. And with most of the data points below expectations they don’t even have a signal from their own methodology yet to hike.

  2. CaliJoe

    Gary,
    The interim bounce in gold you’re talking about in video, what do you see for silver? Do you think silver has potential to reach $25?

    1. Gary Post author

      Probably not during this intermediate cycle. We’ve just run out of time. Silver will probably have to churn sideways for the rest of the year also. But it could deliver a very convincing bounce over the next couple of weeks.

Comments are closed.