44 thoughts on “MARKET WRAP”

  1. Gary Post author

    Don’t get me wrong, I hate all politicians equally. I’m not a Trump fan, and certainly not a Hillary fan. But the fact that Comey was willing to restart the investigation 11 days ahead of the election suggests to me that the director is no longer afraid of retaliation from the democratic party.

    Which makes me wonder if Comey is looking at very different polls than those being fed to the American public.

    1. s29

      Everybody in the American Security Apparatus hate Hillary. Secret Service-agents, the military, intelligence people and cops. My best guess is that they don’t want to serve the extremely corrupt, volatile warmonger Hillary with her reckless policies.

      If she’s elected, cops are going to have a bad time (Hillary is a BLM George Soros puppet), the military will service as cannon fodder for pointless wars in the Middle East and against Russia (chances are she starts WW3) and every Secret Service-agent know that they will be treated like shit by Hillary, like they’ve always been.

  2. Pedestrian

    Good catch Gary. So you are in agreement with me on the Yen pattern being a cup and handle. Congratulations. If you don’t mind me saying though it is not enough to just comment that the Yen is almost certainly going to be on the rise. That event has significant repercussions across all markets much as a rising dollar has impacts over most of the global economy. We really should cover this in more detail one day because of what it portends for other trades and in particular gold which is our primary interest here. Unless the existing Yen/gold correlation breaks this is an exceptionally bullish indicator and if you look carefully at the chart you can literally time when the gold rally will be reignited. As I suggested two days back that will likely happen once Yen/dollars fall to the 200 week and using just your imagination you can see where that price intersection will take place in the coming weeks. Until then it is highly probable miners will keep falling along with gold as the handle portion of the cup’n handle works itself out. Anyone who disagrees with this assessment please, by all means speak up.

    1. Jeff

      A cup and handle pattern needs to be preceded by a rally, it’s not a bottoming pattern. The pattern you’re looking at in the Yen chart is just a rounded bottom.

      1. Pedestrian

        I know Jeff. That’s what the textbook says. But I have been at this a long time and the more I use charts the more flexible I find I need to be with identification. To me it is a cup and handle at the end of a decline and so that’s how I call it. I am not being smart assed about this either but a lot of technicals work in ways outside the advertised structure. So I don’t get too hung up on the name. What I want is positive results from identifying a pattern that works as I expect and on that score I have a pretty good record.

        So a bounce at the 200 week and off to the races.

        Hey, you are the second guy today who wants to disagree over the pattern name when its what the pattern is saying that is more important. Whether an inverse head and shoulders, a rounded bottom or a cup and handle; all of them lead to the same conclusion.

        Gold prices will rise again.

  3. Hillarys_Cattle_Futures

    One of the theory’s I’ve been toying with over the past few months is;

    (A.) Obamacare was written largely by special interest/lobbyist to enrich their own interests at the expense of the American taxpayer.

    (B.) Certain companies have gotten very very fat/bloated on Obamacare.

    (C.) Trump says one of the first things he’s going to do is get rid of Obamacare.

    (D.) Hillary’s tuff talk against Drug companies is all a bluff … if Hillary wins; it’ll be business as usual for the Drug Companies – as long as they pay their disguised bribes to the Clinton Foundations.

    Then, as of last Friday Oct 28, 2016; the FBI drops a bombshell (their hand probably forced by Wikileaks & KimDotCom) … and Wall Street begins to show some signs of nervousness;

    On Friday Oct 28, 2016; The 3 largest Drug wholesalers took a very serious beat down … IMO; this may be the earliest stage telegraphing that market participants are beginning to sense a Hillary loss – to wit;

    MCK;
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=mck

    CAH;
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cah

    ABC;
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=abc

    There’s also been noticeable weakness showing up in LABU & IBB recently (but not as pronounced as the vicious selling in drug wholesalers Friday).

    IMO; If Trumps wins … the companies that have been fattened up by Obamacare are heading towards the slaughterhouse.

  4. Dreamer

    My take is that Big Dick Comey is now trying to save his own bacon as he can no longer go to the mat for Hillary. Big Dick is not going to sacrifice himself, his career and wants to salvage some of his integrity and credibility of what is left. So to save his bacon, Big Dick is now going to throw Hillary under the bus to save himself and justifiably so. Self-preservation is bigger than anything as it is in every person’s natural instinct to survive and this is where Big Dick is at after coming under heavy scrutiny and criticism from Congress and several other directions.

    Doubt very much that Big Dick would do this and then months from now say that we looked into this a second time, did a very thorough investigation, blah blah blah and we found nothing new that warranted charges. So Dick is feeling the heat bigtime.

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    PEDESTRIAN, I think you were talking about an inverted H&S forming in JPYUSD since a cup with handle forms as a continuation pattern – not the case of JPYUSD.
    I agree with you we should see gold bottoming as JPYUSD does.

    ROBERT, that was my initial thinking too, but I cannot ignore individual price action in GDX (showing left-translation, hence inability to move to higher ground despite gold) while both gold and miners are getting late in their daily cycles.
    I am a momentum trader and I get into a trade or stay in it only as long as wo things occur:
    1) I see momentum;
    2) the trade still makes sense from reward-risk perspective.
    If either of the two falters, I am back into cash.

  6. Pedestrian

    As a rule I prefer not to comment on politics but there is one thing bothering me that is not being discussed about the Weiner laptop. How is it that after all these months Huma Abedin never thought to herself that maybe , just maybe, one day those 650,000 emails she left behind on her husbands computer might not come to light and why did she lie to the FBI knowing full well that eventually she would get caught if she did not take steps to destroy the evidence. I mean to say, did she not understand that her husbands sexting likely involved the use of the very laptop that was full to bursting with confidential State documents and correspondence and that his activities would eventually lead to her own downfall? Could she be that dumb really or is there another agenda in motion? In other words, those files were meant to be found and Huma and her estranged husband are just more of the actors in a drama whose conclusion is probably already preordained.

    1. tulip

      thanks pedestrian….
      it is terribly preordained… and incredibly tangled…
      maybe Huma thought Comey would indict weeks ago…
      who in their right mind would marry weiner…

      1. daverobson

        Apparently all ths emails were under a file named life insurance. I guess it was there in case anything happened to her. Pure speculation .. so they were purposely kept. Apparently her ex husband is cooperating and talking to the FBI. FBI had these emails for a few months as well. Stay tuned … will be awhile before they go through all the emails .

        1. Pedestrian

          No way Dave! They were filed under Life Insurance? Holy Moly. In other words Huma was so afraid for her life that she deliberately kept a time capsule of information to destroy the Clinton’s in the event of her untimely death? Well, they say that politics is a blood sport but this really takes the cake. So that kind of proves my point that she did not ummmm, forget about those files being left over at Hubby’s place. There must be zero trust in Washington no matter who you work for.

      2. Pedestrian

        Haha LOL. We will just have to presume that Huma married the man and not the weiner but I am just guessing of course. Don’t make me laugh too hard Tulip, this whole drama is already one for the hysterical ward. I can’t even imagine how it will all be recorded in school text books in the future. And this whole thing about a little old laptop containing 650,000 emails. What the hell? That’s not a laptop. Its a server for Gosh Sakes because we are led to understand that the letters there were saved in whole on that drive to be printed out rather than just exist as links to an email provider elsewhere. And so that’s the computer that Weiner decided to use when he went on his sexcapade with underage girls around the US? Oh PLEASE LORD!!!!!! It is all just too stupid for words.

        1. Pedestrian

          I guess at this point we need to ask the obvious question. Was Huma planted to take down Hillary? WOW. I guess anything is possible. No way in hell did she forget about 650,000 emails. There is just now way. So this was all planned.

  7. victor

    Hi Alex, Simulations Plus declares $0.05 dividend…, if on Clinton fear it moves down a bit I will buy it back…

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    Hello, hello, Victor!
    It should move down a little bit more after its cum-dividend date as stocks market declines towards its YCL.
    Personally, I think a Hillary win will allow a rise in stocks market before the fall to YCL.

  9. Alexandru Popovici

    Crude oil is already in yearly cycle decline too – ready to deliver its signal by a monthly swing high.

    IT IS MENACING THAT CRB INDEX IS IN AN LEFT-TRANSLATED YEARLY CYCLE!
    Commodities complex topped well before oil.

  10. Pedestrian

    Putting politics aside I have another chart to put up on the topic of Biotech. This one on IBB is very long term and asks the question about where the real price bottom lies from the standpoint of Elliot Waves. Any Elliot practitioners here (besides Avi who drops in from time to time to see what Gary is saying)? You might have a better assessment than me reading the Runes on this chart.

    So here it is: This is a ten year chart of IBB and you can easily read the five wave rising pattern that began back in 2010. What is less clear though is whether or not the typical 3 wave decline has completed or if we are still working off the 2nd wave bounce. If the latter is the case then Biotech stocks still have a big decline in their future by my estimation. As an aside, LABU is again falling today and I can’t see it recovering until it has retraced 100% of the years move to date.

    Any takers?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/chart/IBB#eyJtdWx0aUNvbG9yTGluZSI6ZmFsc2UsImxpbmVXaWR0aCI6IjIiLCJib2xsaW5nZXJVcHBlckNvbG9yIjoiI2UyMDA4MSIsImJvbGxpbmdlckxvd2VyQ29sb3IiOiIjOTU1MmZmIiwibWZpTGluZUNvbG9yIjoiIzQ1ZTNmZiIsIm1hY2REaXZlcmdlbmNlQ29sb3IiOiIjZmY3YjEyIiwibWFjZE1hY2RDb2xvciI6IiM3ODdkODIiLCJtYWNkU2lnbmFsQ29sb3IiOiIjMDAwMDAwIiwicnNpTGluZUNvbG9yIjoiI2ZmYjcwMCIsInN0b2NoS0xpbmVDb2xvciI6IiNmZmI3MDAiLCJzdG9jaERMaW5lQ29sb3IiOiIjNDVlM2ZmIiwicmFuZ2UiOiIxMHkifQ%3D%3D

    1. Gary Post author

      I would wait until we get something that can clearly be identified as an ICL in the stock market. When we do it will exacerbate the selling pressure in biotechs.

      So no need to jump in that pool until we see a bloodbath phase in the stock market.

      1. Pedestrian

        Agree 100% Gary. Hey, check this other chart out. It is the FTSE All World Index for stocks around planet Earth. Basically it represents 7400 companies in something like 50 countries. What is interesting is the bearish crossover of the 50 MA under the 200. Maybe more interesting because the two lines are hugging each other and refusing to give a good decisive signal of what comes next. Also note the MACD. To me this one is fascinating from the really big picture angle even though in itself its not tradeable information.

        But it may be warning us of what is coming next and suggesting why Biotech could be going quite a bit lower.

        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

        If that does not load correctly then just plug in $FAW and go to a weekly or monthly view.

          1. Gary Post author

            My guess is if Clinton gets elected the markets will continue to be propped up.

            If Trump gets elected support for the market will be withdrawn and we will get some kind of crash or semi-crash so the dems can hand Trump the biggest shit sandwich possible in January.

          2. Pedestrian

            I don’t know how to do that. Anybody out there who can explain it I would be eternally grateful.

          4. Pedestrian

            OK, many thanks Gary.

            Now since I am here again I have another fascinating chart fact for you technical people (where are you today?) I won’t bother posting the chart because they don’t work for me but you can easily check this for yourselves. And this one is pretty interesting depending on how you read it.

            For 2016 the S&P will officially post a yearly outside engulfing candle or said another way, an “outside year”.

            We don’t need the year to be over to know this. Its already a fact. For those unfamiliar with this technical indicator it simply means that the S&P low of 2016 is below the lowest point of 2015 and the high is above the highest print for the year 2015. Thus, we have an outside year on a bar chart.

            These are not a common event. The last time the S&P saw an outside year was in 2000 and we all know how that ended in a disastrous sell off for the next 24 months. But that was a bearish outside year because the bar ended on a down note.

            For 2016 we are still in an uptrending candle on the entire year. So this may actually be a bullish engulfing candle no matter how crazy that sounds right now. Whatever it is the next year is going to be interesting and almost certainly more dramatic than this one.

            Place your bets!

          5. Pedestrian

            And would you not just know it!

            Just when I thought I had come across a rather unique observation of a technical pattern on the markets I no sooner discover that someone else had beaten me too it by several months. The Citi Group Technical Department had already dissected this idea of an “outside year” back in July before it had actually formed.

            In the article linked they note it is going to be the first instance of a Bullish Outside Year in the past 35 years and only the third such instance in the S&P’s history. The year 2000 event I mentioned above was a bearish outside year. Also very rare but obviously different. Anyway, have a look. I might not have been the first to make the discovery but I am probably the first who was not working for a major bank!

            http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/07/01/an-outside-year/

  12. Alexandru Popovici

    Hunting the moment to short treasuries, most likely on Wed.
    Hillary’s win will produce the selling climax in treasuries, JPY and gold (besides a temporary optimism in stocks, commodities and USD –> USX to reach its YCH).

    1. Pedestrian

      Oh, I don’t know about that. I won’t burden myself too much with rule books and restrictions. And seat belts are for sissy’s. You may have noticed my viewpoint is pedestrian. So I’m just like the man on the street watching an auto accident take place. I am not involved in the accident and I sure as hell didn’t cause it but like others around me on the curb I can’t help but stand there in amazement at the carnage and just say “wow…that was one hell of a wreck”.

      So its neither a vote for or against anyone. Let alone your personal beliefs.

  14. Robert

    Very quiet here, what are your predictions people…one more drop for gold still ahead or was that it? A DCL is still due in few weeks

    1. Pedestrian

      I think gold might have outsmarted us, Robert. I just noticed on the daily chart that it triggered a buy signal in the past two days. That bear flag just got so long in the tooth it can’t possibly be a bear flag anymore and that’s probably why we saw miners heading back up yesterday. Talk about a stealth move.

      1. Pedestrian

        Looks like Gary called it when he said metals would be a buy after platinum broke above resistance. That happened already and this morning metals are all on the rise. So its something to keep in mind that watching plat can help to know gold.

  15. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    “Let alone your personal beliefs.”

    Actually, I didn’t read all of your words — I just read the first phrase and made my comment.

    Curious analogy for two reasons:

    1. I never stand around or rubberneck at traffic accidents, much less talk about them. NEVER. That is a rule of mine.

    2. I lost a friend on “Good” Friday, 1982. He was 16 years old, driving down a country road, wrapped his car around a tree, ate the steering wheel, and died. The girl sitting next to him was hospitalized for months with a broken pelvis among other injuries. There were two girls and two boys sitting in the back seat. The girls were injured, the boys unscathed, as the girls were sitting on their laps. It is unfortunate to have gone thru life without my old friend.

    Otherwise, a little refresher on the English language for you:

    1. A rule is not a preference — so “as a rule I prefer” is absurd.

    2. Formation of plural does not use apostrophe s.

  16. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    “You may have noticed my viewpoint is pedestrian.”

    Reminds me that back in my Uni days, my friends and I used the term “pedestrian” as a synonym for “crass”. 😉

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