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In response to zbigkid’s comment on the previous thread,
NO I don’t get it. Explain it once more ……but with feeling.
gold is in the woodshed tonight!
Ok so now who wants to call the bottom?
ME! ME! ME!
I strongly suggest waiting for a weekly swing before reentering long positions.
I hope you Goldilocks that that was sarcasm.
On the bright side I have spotted the Fat Lady.
I think she sings somewhere between $1,140 and $1,124.
of course!!! Patiently waiting for a bottom (and Brian’s was not very firm…..)!
So Gary for the benefit of newbies here
1) You used the NYSE Advance decline line to correlate to Nasdaq? Nasdaq advance decline symbol $NAAD, wouldn’t that make more sense.
2) The Nasdaq Decline line peaked in Jan 2014 and has zero (nada) predictive value as the Nasdaq Advanced 30% while line the declined 30% over the last 2 years.
3) Even the raw NYSE, Nasdaq AD lines are useless as there are tons of etfs, preferreds and closed end funds which distort. Frank Barbera used to maintain an adjusted AD line which actually correlated a lot better.
The AD line is diverging from the SPX. Many of the big tech names have not followed the market to new highs and some are at risk of breaking the Nov. lows. AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, INTC, FB.
Understand I’m not calling a top, and I don’t advise selling short. I’m just saying it might not be a bad idea to take profits on long positions and see if the breakout can be recovered.
Well all 3 have their own AD lines but like I said with the proliferation of CEF, ETFs and preferreds….it is next to useless.
How else would you explain Nasdaq going up 30% which AD line declined 30% over 2 years?
I prefer the NYSE AD line. Almost all tops occur with the AD line diverging, although not all divergences lead to major tops.
I think even in the realm of technical analysis, which you have called useless, this is about the most useless indicator, with a hit rate of 20%. But you have fun with it.
You aren’t listening to what I’m saying.
It’s just a mild warning sign coupled with the negated breakout in the Nasdaq.
Take profits and wait to see if the breakout is recovered.
I am listening. I am just disagreeing with your assessment of even the mild usefulness of an indicator which has been watered down by additional listings.
Perhaps you know that 52% of the NYSE AD line is made up of non-operating companies. Most likely not.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-nyse-advancedecline-line-is-lying-to-you-2016-04-21
You still aren’t listening. The warning sign is the negation of the breakout. The AD line is just another possible confirming red flag. Again the only action is to take profits and see if the breakout can be recovered.
You are trying to read something into my comment that isn’t there.
There is no perfect indicator. All indicators fail at times. Many other indicators are available to supplement. Price is king and the most reliable indicator. If one is caught on the wrong side of price, it would feel like being hit by a ton of bricks. Digging heels and fighting the price is not helpful for the pocket book. For SM, a trade worthy profit taking event may be on the horizon. Small caps,bigcaps, midcaps, tech,semis are beginning to roll over. Not interesting in looking too far ahead into the future and worry about the depth and duration of the profit taking event. It will become clear as price evolves over time. A tip of the hat to all the smart posters here and to Gary the owner of this blog.
The “baby bull” in gold is officially no more. As a long term “stacker” since early 2005, I have acquired gold at everything from $425-1600/oz. Tomorrow I’m going to sell a six-figure holding of physical gold, platinum, silver, and palladium. Just tired of losing money. By almost any metric, US stocks are the most overpriced asset in the world, yet they go higher, year after year. Gold gets a 30% boost early this year and can’t even maintain it, yet US stocks are up about 225% in seven years with not even a correction since 2011! And look at Platinum…why do I get the feeling if I wait much longer I’m going to have to actually pay someone to take it? And Rhodium remains 94% below its bubble high and still about one-seventh its inflation-adjusted price from the 1980s and 1990s. The only precious metal that has helped my portfolio is Palladium, and I’m expecting that to get slammed anytime now too.
Gary nailed his prediction late last year, and that was a big call for which he deserves the utmost credit since no one else saw that. However, I would not be surprised if we reach a new cycle low in the next few weeks and I see no reason that $400 gold won’t once again be in our future. If you look at Platinum/Rhodium, the precious metal complex is in dire straights.
$400 is about as ridiculous to me as $6,000.
We will bottom at some point and once the Gold oil ratio is in alignment it will be safe to buy Gold.
Until then Buy Oil Stocks.
Hi Markab,
They say they don’t ring a bell at market bottoms, but I heard them ringing when I read your post.
If the market turns shortly, thank you!
Gary Shilling was out with an article calling for $5 oil the day oil bottomed at $27.
Currently he is 900% wrong.
Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding……….
Totally Agree, Strike. Reminds me of the CDE board in 2008. I knew to load the boat then when the message board posters were jumping out of windows.
I am long platinum as well. I would hang in there. It sucks that it goes down every day but you are not leveraged and you probably don’t need the money right away. There is a big premium for platinum coins if that’s what you have and you will lose that premium if you sell. Its like $60 a coin. I would hang in there and just not follow the markets for awhile if it bothers you they go down every day.
Winter doesn’t last forever. One day spring will arrive.
You obviously have not watched Game of Thrones.
Winter does last for almost forever.
I’m going to lay out the scenario that will confirm to me the bull is still alive.
When we get the final YCL: We should see a massive volume up day in NUGT and JNUG. Gold should rally at least 1.5-2% from the intraday bottom to top. Miners at least 4-8%.
But because this YCL has been so severe everyone will see it as an opportunity to exit at higher prices. Then the next day price will continue to surge higher leaving everyone behind. It should look like the copper chart. The shorts will pile on again at the 200 DMA, but price will go through that forcing an even bigger short squeeze.
Ultimately the rally out of the YCL should look very similar to last years rally if the bull is still alive. It should just surge higher without giving traders any kind of entry.
On the other hand if gold rallies sluggishly out of the YCL then the baby bull is dead for now.
Lol Gary I commented in August that the correction despite your beliefs of mild declines will be so severe that it will only end when you declare the bull market is over. Don’t make Nostradamus out of me now.
You got the gold prediction correct. It is at least getting close to 1150. You missed on both oil and the stock market. Neither one has gone up huge like you predicted. In fact both are flat since you made that comment.
Perhaps I can acquaint you with reality.
OIH is up from $27 to $32.78 since August.
That is 20% in 4 months. Or about 60% annualized non compounding, non leveraged.
Vs what?
What I said all along …GDX will be a piece of Crap compared to my oil/oil services call.
GDX down 35% in the same time.
So 55% out performance in 4 months or 220% annualized non compounding.
You can ask Robert below how he would feel about a positive 220% call.
That is not a good call Gary. That is a fantastic call.
You would have strutted it to your subscribers way out in 2020.
Must be getting really sleepy…….165% annualized
It could happen either way. Not interested in nomenclature: bull/bear. I prefer up cycle/down cycle. One day at a time. Let us cross that bridge when we get there. Cheers.
duckie- you have a thing going with Gary..
He has been & continues to be very patient with you.
We all realize you r the smartest guy in the universe
like avi gilbert is.
But now you have become obnoxious & very tedious.
you have undone yr quack
Avi Gilbert and I have thing too. It is like a love triangle I am guessing.
I like Gary more than Avi Gilbert. I cannot stand idiots who say stuff like GDX could go as low $7.80 or as high as $52 depending on the wave structure (yeah he actually implied that over 2 articles).
As for him being patient,
Point one comment above that was inaccurate..will you please?
I did not call Gary names. He is using the worst possible indicator with 52% of the components INCORRECT.
And I did make that comment to him…..that is how bear markets go…the ones that love it the most land up hating it the most.
Totally agree. Yes, Gary may of missed this call, but he has been right many other times.
I don’t post often, but you really need to get a life Duck Dynasty. You post here more than anyone does and we are all tired of you.
You took a poll?
Speak for yourself Goldlion. I am definitely not tired of Duck and if you had any sense, you would be wise to heed his words.
Any reason not to short NG right now? I’m tempted (with a tight stop loss) lots of gaps to fill on the way down.
Sold gold position today.
Will re-enter when appropriate.
Oil/energy seems tempting (short term) even though fundamentals don’t change with this OPEC “deal”. No real change in production.
Would advice against it.
advise….
Now worries guys, the 133 MMA caught gold at 1166. It’s all good now, bottom in. 😉
I’m still here guys thx for the concern if it’s genuine. Drinking a few rounds now to ease the depression. I still feel miners will rally hard either by Friday or early next week. Just look at gold breaking new lows and some miners yet to make new lows like ABX. Also volumes on down days are big but yet price still holding support. I think that means big money scooping up shares. So I am still hopeful. I am either gonna lose it all or take a smaller loss if there is a rally. Kinda doubt I will break even given the decay
You have gone down the slope of hope. We have all been there.
It is only money. Be thankful for your health and the fact that you are not living in a country like Venezuela or lately even India for that matter.
I just want to say I really appreciate your analysis, Gary, as mainly a lurker here for the last 14 months or so. I’m a very quantitative person (a scientist by profession who also holds an MBA), perhaps the reason why I always liked John Hussman’s stock analysis (although despite his incredibly well-reasoned and highly mathematical approach, he has been very ,very wrong since 2009). US stocks are at nosebleed valuations, from which it would be entirely expected for them to give up half of their post-2009 gains. Yet that is not likely to happen ever, since the S&P has become a highly political number for laypeople to gauge the health of the economy…even if the rot behind that number is obvious for all to see. And people constantly say with rising interest rates, USD, gold will fall. Yet, in 1980 gold was the equivalent, inflation-adjusted, of $2,400/oz with short-term interest rates well north of 10%. Real interest rates today remain solidly negative in the entire developed world, and likely will be no matter how much the Fed can raise, yet gold has not capitalized on that one iota. And if you really believe the meme of a strengthening world economy (with record car production), industrial metals like Rhodium and Platinum should be doing much, much better.
It remains very humbling to be the biggest loser of all my friends who blindly invest in US stocks through their 401k’s and have no understanding whatsoever of economics and valuations and yet have “trumped” me for the better part of the last decade investment-wise. They pretty much only know what the shills on CNBC tell them and nothing else…and they are doing GREAT financially now.
So true. So frustrating. All our concern to do the right thing and sidestep disaster for our families….way better off to date being an unthinking sheeple following the advice of the guys on Wallstreet TV. Fiat by decree currency how many Americans even know whatvthat means?…..we’d have been better off if we were kind of dense and simple minded. I hear you loud and clear here. But then what? Put your proceeds into an already bloated stockmarket? Real-estate?
Duck is right. It’s only money.
FInally a few other people are getting what I have been saying all along.
Gold is tied to USD/JPY (inverse) which is tied to TLT/Real yields (inverse)
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/usdjpy-and-price-gold
Thanks for sharing link DuckW
SM losing steam. qld rolled over. Rut, tna, beginning to roll over. Spxl likewise. Loner, udow still dithering. Likely, a profit taking event in the works. How interesting, this happens on a day when OPEC reaches the so-called deal. PM complex not very interesting at the moment. That could change. Markets are perverse. Cheers.
As long as YCS is powering up, it is going to be a serious headwind for the pm complex.
I’m afraid the bull market in gold and silver is over, or should I say this was just a bear market rally or trap. I think the bear market will continue for many years to come. I have to agree with Harry Dent that gold will probably get down to $250 when all is said and done. Perhaps we can look forward to a new bull market beginning in the late 20s. In the meantime I see deflation more devastating than the Great Depression in the 30s. Now that Trump will be President, I see the same thing happening under his administration as what happened during Hoover and FDR. This could be the end of the world. But lets stay cheerful anyway.:lol:
Sorry. 😆
As I said before, Gary is playing sucker’s game here……calling every week a btoom in gold prices….but he has been wrong for lot of weeks!
One of these weeks he may be right for a short term bounce and he will call it a victory.
I hope he keeps the record of how many times he called bottom in gold with undercut low and then coming up with wild theories about election, then cycle count and then USD and now the best one yet…….we are still in a bull market and weekly stochastics will be overbought in March.
Mr. Market has served his analysis with a lump of coal.
I’ve been saying for several weeks now to wait for a weekly swing. How is that calling a bottom every week? Until gold forms the swing I’m not prepared to call the bottom. Everyone should still be on the sidelines from 1275 unless you were brave enough to buy the trend line break on the HUI. I suggested subs get out today, at basically breakeven. So even those traders should be waiting for the weekly swing now also.
You need to get your facts straight before posting.
Admittedly, I’m just very bitter. The only good call I made was selling my California house in 2005 at a time when the rallying cry was “Real estate never goes down!” and “Buy now or be priced out forever!” I rented until 2011 until I bought again. However, all those irresponsible people who bought homes and toys they knowingly couldn’t afford were bailed out…they had little or no skin in the game (a 100%+ mortgage) and just defaulted. There were so many of them that they collectively became a political class : “the struggling homeowner” that must be protected and helped. So they walked away from their houses, often with their boats, RVs, college educations, vacations, financed with home equity money. They absorbed a small ding on their credit for a few years and guess what? They were able to buy in the same neighborhoods five years later for half the price, essentially coming out ahead of what I did (since they were able to keep all the toys acquired with their second mortgages) even though I forecasted the crash almost perfectly. In retrospect, the government could not let the housing market crash entirely so it rolled out all the stops (incentives) to help stem the flood of houses on the market. And suspending short-selling of Banks helped out the entities holding those bad loans, and by extension, the stock market. And they have been putting $$ in the stock market, not gold, and guess what? Their lazy approach to “investing” has served them well again.
I think I’ll just stick to my EE and I bonds from here on out.
This is my first time posting a comment here. But I have been getting market insights here for quite some time, with some good results. I would like to thank Gary especially, but also others such as Duck, Alexandru and Pedestrian (to name a few of the more prolific and knowledgeable contributors) for sharing ideas. I think I agree with Gary that some of you try to be too clever with the daily market moves and lose the big picture at times.
Let’s all try to keep this blog civil and respectful. This takes some effort and restraint. Are your comments always the sort of words that you would say to a friend? Most blogs deteriorate into name-calling and personality clashes eventually. Please let’s all try to keep our egos out of it.
I probably won’t post much. Wisdom comes more by what you take in than by what you put out. So I’ll take in all the good ideas I can find here!
The Crow.
To duck: People have recognized for years now the correlation between yen and commodities, especially gold.
I think the issue people are having is it is virtually impossible to guess what the BoJ wants with respect to the yen (and they no doubt coordinate policy with the Fed). It is no coincidence that the BoJ announced even bigger QE mere days after the Fed announced QE3. That allowed the Fed to add a $1trill to its balance sheet and at the same time commodities tanked (due to the crashing yen).
The cynic in me thinks that the Fed and BoJ coordinate policy to keep interest rates low and a lid on commodities. It’s the perfect world for stocks.
The latest BoJ policy pronouncement seems to me to be intrinsically hyperinflationary for yen–namely they will print as much yen is needed in order to get 2% inflation. The irony is though, the more they print, the lower the yen goes and the as a consequence commodities (and gold) go lower in USD terms and stay flat in yen terms, thus keeping a lid on inflation if not being outright deflationary.
Where do you see yen going near and longer term, and do you think then correlation with gold and commodities stays intact?
Part of your answer
http://goldbugspray.blogspot.com/2016/11/yen-and-commodities.html
Gary,
“On the other hand if gold rallies sluggishly out of the YCL then the baby bull is dead for now.”
Bravo!!!
3 comments:
1. How do you quantify “for now”? That’s even more vague than the rolling 4-5 years. Can’t find “for now” on my calendar, on my clock, or on any other time measurement tool…
2. “On the other hand”… Nice! BTW: What do you call a one-handed Economist? 😉
3. C U in 2022~!!
If the rally out of the YCL is timid then I would expect gold will not make higher highs and we would be headed for 1045.
End of November. Monthly gold chart looks ugly.
Yes the candle is well below the 20 month MA. It just sailed right through without even a slight bounce.
Just to add my own view on “On the other hand if gold rallies sluggishly out of the YCL then the baby bull is dead for now.”
Actually, I would state this as, “On the ONE hand if gold rallies sluggishly out of the YCL then the baby bull is dead for now.” The baby bull is “the OTHER HAND” for this Economist 😉
This is a bear market rally, just like the 2 that befuddled Gary in 2013 (April-June, 2013 and July, 2013 – July, 2014). The first lasted nearly 3 months. The second was one degree higher and lasted 1 year. This bear market rally is one degree higher than that: The same degree as the move down from Sep, 2011 to Dec, 2015. How long do you reckon it will last?
The answer to that question is my answer to Gary’s “for now”. The over zealous bears think the bear market rally ended in July, and lows below 1046 are imminent. While I recognize this as possible, I think it is more likely that “for now” will be measured in YEARS (as opposed to months or decades). It is very possible, if not likely, that the bull market rally will consolidate in a multi-year triangle, followed by another multi-year bearish move.
As I’ve stated for months, this consolidation will likely clobber both bulls and bears. Swing traders and skilled day traders with absolutely no bias for price movement one way or the other will likely make out like banditos. The caveat, of course, is to be able to recognize waves of the “B” or “X” or “4” variety — “corrections to the correction” aka both bullish & bearish “traps”, in which everybody is likely to lose money. And if the move is a “correction to the correction to the correction” — that’s it — ur dead!
When I look at this yearly cycle, it is right translated — so we could very well get another move up to 1400’s — the same area as the April and August, 2013 peaks. That would be the 2017 yearly cycle high, and most likely the multi-year high as well.
zkotpen,
Your user name looks familiar to me. Did you use to post on Gary’s premium site or the Refined Investor site?
Gary mentioned the fact that we made a higher high as evidence of a new bull. What about $gold from 1993-1996?
I noticed that $silver has former a weekly swing low so far. As long as it stays above about $16.10 by Friday that is.
That is a positive sign for gold if it does hold.
China reducing gold imports caused the crash in Asian trade.
I, too, am a lurker here but after reading posts from Mrduckwhorocks1, stockpick, zkotpen and the like, I think it’s worth pointing out that I, and probably most of Gary’s followers, don’t expect him to specifically “nail” every variation in the price of gold that will occur in the future. The History of the World suggests that predicting the future, no matter what the subject, is quite difficult. So I’m happy just to read the thoughts of an experienced gold trader who has done well for himself over the years.
My preference is for “big picture” insights and even flat-out hunches about where the price of gold is going from those with a history of success. If I profit from a hunch based on an analyst mistakenly looking at a chart from 2006, instead of 2016, I could care less. Okay, your chart was a decade off, but so what. I made money.
Last month I was fascinated to read that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation had added 40.4 tons of gold to its reserves during October, a record. This brought Russia’s gold holdings up to over 1583 tons of gold. In fact, Russia has increased its gold buying by over 50 percent in the last three years and I wondered if Vladimir Putin may have had something to do with this aggressive, gold-buying policy. Let’s see, as the third-largest oil producer in the world, is it possible that Mr. Putin recognized that the only way an OPEC agreemeht to lower production could have “teeth” is if Russia would agree to follow suit? And is it possible that Vladimir Putin decided to go on a gold-buying rampage in the knowledge that, if he threw in with OPEC and agreed to freezing oil production, the price spike in oil that followed would become a “twofer” because of the uptick in gold prices that it would trigger?
Russia bought 50 percent of all the new gold produced in the last year.
Was this because Vladimir is a dimwit? That he doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing?
I don’t have the experience in gold to answer such a question. But I suspect that someone who fixates on a minor trendline, like Mrduckwhorocks1, probably doesn’t, either. So I’d like to hear what Gary has to say about this, because he has probably made more money in gold than probably anyone reading his column.
So the dollar in red prior to EU US trading. I think it will break even by US open and then go into the green.
Only trading positions
Short TCK from 26.44 and long Euro USD from 1.058.
I think Euro has put in a bottom.
I am buying silver, platinum and gold stocks and shorting the stock market. The reversals are very likely to be sudden and dramatic. Everyone thinks Trump is going to save the US economic slow motion train wreck and that isn’t going to happen. The smart money is well postioned for the downside of the market and a bull market in the PMs. Who is the smart money? Well, me, of course.
Don I like your thinking 🙂
What other analysts compare gold with British Petroleum from 60 years back. Fascinating stuff to put it mildly
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/588833#comment-588833
An explosive gap up move in Gold, that would come as a surprise to most traders I guess.
Makab, do not sell your stuff close to the bottom, wait another 6months or so.
Italiano Disco on Sunday? 12% unemployment 37% among youngsters, falling stockmarket negatve growth, yeah lets stay in EU, things are just great … sad times for the Italians living at their parents home until they are 40years old.
How would a NO affect stockmarkets, and Gold?
For those still skeptical about The Scorch, please take a look at $DJUSHB – weekly chart showing:
– lower YCH on month 5 – leading all stock market
– clear YC decline
– resitance at 50wma.
Homebuilders begg for an undercut of the FEB YCL (452.43) to print its multi-year cycle low in JAN.
GOLD IS TOAST LONG-TERM! it’s just broken decisevely its yearly 61-fib today!
Tough, It should rise during the Scorch up in a new yearly cycle but it bears no interest to me anymore.
I am done with gold, you will not hear me talking about it anymore since it is out of my interest even if it rises through JAN alongside Treasuries and JPY as the Scorch develops.
No wonder I’ve got stopped out of my long gold positions three times consecutively in the last weeks since it is in long-term demage –> USD rising long-term + its breaking 61-fib today will produce a failed yearly cycle: GOLD BELOW 1000 NEXT YEAR.
Yes Alex because here in the US we don’t have any debt and our politicians are fiscally responsible.
What to invest in, then, after the The Scorch ??!!
This is the question!
In assets that the Kondratieff Spring loves:
– real estate (the multi-year cycle in $DJUSHB – homebuilders will provide the basis for this),
– the other commodities (not PM).
Agricultural land will skyrocket! BUY FARMS 🙂
… the multi-year cycle LOW in $DJUSHB….
Dollar down pm’s down. Which will rebound first?
Break of $1170 then minimal support at $1150 the $1050.
http://invst.ly/2v36l
Negative MACD crossing on the monthly, this gold bear has got someway to go yet.
Dday, a bounce for gold should occur, its rise in a new Yearly Cycle, but, in my opinion, gold is too demaged and USD too powerful to be worth getting an entry in it: risk of shakeout is too big for me at least.
Does all this mean that those people who have switched off their computers are going to wake up to a nasty shock when they turn them back on February – March of next year?
Haven’t you heard Gary has now stated “Investing is a risky business….”, hopefully those who took his, lets say, irresponsible advice set stops.
My advice was to stop out at 1275 and wait for a weekly swing. Does that seem bad to you?
Possibly on the daily, although the macd is showing signs of turning yet. Looks like you are agreeing with me.
yes, I am.
BV, yes, indeed.
Homebuilders’ ($DJUSHB) incoming dive towarsds its multi-year cycle low WILL BE THE EPITOME OF THE SCORCH, will take the whole stock exchange with it, not necessarily to lower lows but it will be nasty, as you say.
It will be the epitome of the Scorch because it will reset the sentiment on real estate: exactly what is needed to ensure its upside in the Kondratieff Spring thanks to ensuing temperate but higher inflation (temperate inflation is good for stocks, real estate and commodities).
Looks bad for gold now if it breaks this general support area (1168/9). Then down to 1033-1050 and GDX 12ish. That will be a major buy area. Thankful I bought GDX Puts last week as insurance, but not enough!
GBPUSD behaving strong. A trade I am in due to price action. Don’t know what that means for gold however.
duckwhorocks1 Can you recap for me where you think the SM is going? You think the market has a correction soon or simply a small pullback or a move sideways for a while before continuing on higher?
Thanks.
I see dollar index correcting, and the likely catalyst shall be the FOMC next week.
Got back the 25% NUGT shares dumped yesterday plus another 25%.
It seems that today will be a good day for gold.
Chris,FOMC in 2w.
Now I think the catalyst for GOLD YCL and USD ICH will be tomorrow’s jobs report.
Stock market’s decent to follow an ensuing trend of home builders (after they’ve been range bound post their YCH), also adds to gold’s run and USD’s fall after tomorrow.
But I will only short SM, not buy a damaged gold tough.
Homebuilders have been consolidating since 2013, with multiple failed breakouts.
The SCORCH will give them the last leg down this winter before breaking high for good.
LUMBER should make the top commodity in the next years, post the Scorch.
I support this message.
Although still trying to figure out what Scorch is.
I have seen gold below 61.8%, and the ensuing bounce could be big. Worth the shot. Just dont try too big a position and should be fine.
Tks for highlighting that fomc is following week. And yes, then tomorrows nfp going to be the catalyst.
I also see SM correcting, but not going to short it, looking to position for next year rally.
Any comments about EU/USD, GB/USD up, USD down?
Three favorable items to go long on gold now?
I do not see why one would bail out of trading gold. Gold’s price varies a lot and so it is a trader’s paradise.
Currently the sentiment is pessimist for gold. So why not short it hard?
A lot of money can be made if one is right.
Currently I do not think I have the stomach to reverse my 125% long position into a short.
Thanks all for their comments.
Keep the negative comments coming boys and girls (re: gold)……… signs of capitulation all over the place.
Just wanted to say, great posts Alex and duckwhorocks1. You guys keep this site great. Folks telling you guys to leave is just a bunch of BS. Glad I can learn from you guys.
Thank you, Yasen! I’ve got it wrong with gold 🙁 have not noticed until today that it still is entranched in BEAR market and lost some money getting stopped out of my longs for 3 times.
So, a bounce of gold to maximum 1335 (more likely 1280) and then decline to sub-1000.
Alex, you are knowledgeable but your bounce in gold prediction is too ambitious. The day when gdx dropped to 20.11, your message said the week after it bounced to 1292. Never made it there.
I am thinking 23+ GDX max then down hill from there. I trade in and out of gold miners.
Alex so when do you think gold will have its ych? After the spring or earlier in the yea? When does the scorch begin ? After FOMC ?
Added another 50% NUGT shares to gold position for a total of 175%.
We will see today what happens.
Right timing I think. Today looks to be reversal day in about two hours.
Still added 50% more for 225% total shares.
Wish me luck!
Gold is below $1170 and you are buying NUGT.
Watching the bond market. I think the bubble is popping, and I’ve never seen one deflate gracefully. If I’m right this is going to be multiples worse than the housing bubble.
There simply has to be consequences to printing trillions of currency units and forcing negative interest rates in much of the world.
Which bonds they seem to be up today?
Ignore looking at wrong section….
support at $1150 then $1050
Short SPX@2198
excuse me… about Gold… the YCL was not around 1250 as advised on this blog ?? Lucky I didnot follow advice. Now is 1150 ?? Its true there shld be strong rebound around this next lower level.. but… maybe to 1250…. but in my case… it will be to close all long positions.. anda trade short… rgds
rebound shld camo with Dollar Indx at 102-103… where I expect Dollar correction.. even to 96-97… and that shld be right time.. to close Gold… and if Dollar reches 96-97… short.. short.. short on Gold
Well, there is the Palladium meltdown I was expecting, with the rest of the PM complex also getting hammered again.
Why would anyone dare short US equities? This thing is going parabolic…
bonds getting whacked!
Dday,
I am too bold and at times I call myself stupid. Though today there were in the early morning too many signs pointing to a good day in gold.
So I got many shares neglecting the downfall. I had to go to 600% shares on the bounce back to level back.
So I am now at 100% NUGT shares and even when it gets to 7.8 which would be a gain if it closes even at 7.93. We shall see.
Here we must, must, must follow the market rather than our thinking.
Can someone explain why with USD Iow, GBP and EU up, and OIL up, Gold is still down?
Is there another hidden driver for gold?
Perhaps it is caledl sentiment.
Positive for the day with my 100% NUGT shares.
Thanks!!!!
Good trading to all.