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DUST sitting right on the 20 day MA. Will it rise from here today? Will gold pull back again? What looks bullish on the gold chart to others still looks negative to me but today may make things clearer. The inverse ETFs, Dust and Jdust still look like they have plenty of room to run even if that seems improbable to most here.
A call for gold to fall to 957 if it fails at last years low of 1046. Looks likely to me!
http://www.marketstoday.net/analysis/Analysis-Commentary/gold-due-for-a-bounce-but-remains-in-long-term-bearish-trend/18764/en/
And then there is Goldman Sachs also suggesting a fall to 989 if its recalculated EW waves are correct. I picked up these helpful bits of information over at Goldtent today courtesy of Boobooman and just thought it was kind of interesting since I also have a target in the high to mid 900’s for gold before this period of carnage is over. In other words, I remain skeptical of any bounce we may see near term and think it should still be treated as a bounce to sell or a fresh opportunity to get short again. What I don’t think is that we are about to go back to the prior highs of this year anytime soon.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=390733
Hi, Ped. Good posts. Before we could get to your scenario, “Maybe the shorts are about to get skinned before we head down again?”. Playing dust is not that easy. We may have to wait patiently until $gold and gdx finish their rickety bounce and dust finishes the C wave. Also, time will be needed to unwind the extreme sentiment. We had 2 great up moves in dust, once in November and once in December. To experience a similar move, we may have to wait until January, 2017. This probably may not be the time to get excited about the pm complex. It is understandable to entertain the opposite view if one has been on the wrong side of price since September hoping for quick and significant relief.
Probably, shorts will be skinned some more, while trapped longs will experience some needed relief and euphoria. Once the bounce plays out and the downward movement in force resumes, all the cycle/sentiment folks will be repeating their usual mantra, “market manipulation and resultant stretch in cycles ” accompanied by the usual trumpeting of the residual % gains, if any are left, when gold heads toward sub $1000 level.
how about $250,when i bought my gold ring
Look to the left of your chart. Using your logic, will miss the entire 1999 bull run! Lol
Keep trading in hindsight and you will go broke. You do know this is a bear market in gold I hope!
Funny you should mention, I was accumulating QQQ calls yesterday afternoon . I’m bullish QQQ at least for the rest of this week.
As a short term trader, I covered my GDX calls yesterday..
I think it’s rude to be disrespectful to Gary. He is voluntarily providing a great blog and giving us all the opportunity to share valuable ideas. .
I wasn’t rude to Gary. Who are you talking too?
Boy you really like to hear yourself talk don’t you,…You got one lucky call right now all of a sudden your the forum master trader, moderator and go to guy. If anything your an embarrassment.
Are you drunk again? Holy shit Bill, its only 8:00 am.
Rude? No, it is just a different viewpoint. Please feel free to disagree.
Deja vu anyone, dollar moving on up after failed gold rally…..
Market seldom moves as per any one’s expectations. The market is the leader, we are all but humble followers. Anyone who thinks the opposite will get whipped.
Nah BS you need to be able to read technicals, the market/technicals have been in favour of the dollar since the summer. Ignoring them and pretending gold has some unique superiority over other markets will get you burned.
Next dollar resistance begins 103.98-106. After that 111.43.Then 120. I went long gold January 2016 and then shorted in August when the macd histogram started turning dow. I have done very well, no hocus pocus just technicals.
And the market continues just higher. No end to this rally apparently.
Sentiment levels in stocks are becoming extremely bullish. Usually when this level of bullishness is reached the market tends to struggle or give back its gains at some point over the next month or two.
Right now we are still in a low volume holiday trading. It’s easy to push the market higher. The incentive to take profits will come as we move into 2017 and the possibility that Trump will get the capital gains tax lowered.
Anything to the contrary will be a surprise.
Yep, sooner or later the reality of a high dollar will hit.
People are waiting for Trump to Fuck up. Seriously is that your best hope. He isn’t even in office yet, and then how long till it goes wrong. The day after he is inaugurated , keep dreaming…
It is amazing how someone like Trump who knows next to nothing about domestic and foreign policy is seen by so many as the second coming. He may do well for all anyone knows but he may also be a complete disaster. I am betting on the latter due to his oversized ego and the fact that he thinks he is smarter than everyone else out there. Running a country is not like constructing buildings or hosting a reality tv show. The market is having a love affair with him as though he has actually accomplished much when in reality he has yet to do anything but talk up a storm.
Hopefully, his advisers and the senate/house leaders will keep him in check.
mkt has nothing to do with politician.. up or down
I kind of agree with you. I voted for Trump because I want him to pack the Supreme Court with conservatives and stop illegal immigration (including muslims). I know he can’t do much about the economy.
Seriously, Weird bunch of people here keep fighting the dollar strength, and keep hoping PMs bottom.
Also where’s Alex oil is closer to $39???? Oil is heading towards $60 man
Is it ?!
Tempting to short, will see if tomorrow it pop on or before inventories…
dust getting creamed some more!
dust and nugt nearing their critical ma’s. Interesting fireworks soon?
holding my shorts SPX and USDJPY set some time ago (got stopped out of the GBPUSD long at 1.237, though).
JPY is on the verge to start trending up (USDJPY down) strong, very strong by the end of next week!
Down to USDJPY = 111
I think you are right about the Yen. People forget that Japan has a trade surplus and manufactures quality products that people want and need. What does the USA export? Scrap cardboard, scrap steel, pornography, diabetes, US Dollars?
hold on…, we will see America great again, no sarcasm …
Agreed. I have great hopes.
No kidding.
Hi, Alex. You seem to have a good grip on currency movement. If usdjpy sinks to your target of 111, where do you expect gold to be? 1180-1200 or higher. If that happens, Gary will have the last laugh and sub $1000 guys will be silenced. It is all the same to me. I am not locked into any specific scenario.
Ha. Good one Ras. It won’t be that easy to shut me up!
Thanks for sharing Alexandur. Seeing how you are almost always wrong folks may want to do the opposite.
|How did that stock market scorch work out for you? What a joker.
[email protected]
yeap, Victor, oil is ripe for re-shorting.
oil may have a strong bounce to allow CRB index to put its YCH; now its highest high is in June – CRB may get an yearly right translation before rolling into YC decline and the best help it can get for that is from an exhastion up-candle in oil.
Thank you Alex
you’re always welcome, dear Victor!
I tend to agree with you Alex, my volume indicators show exhaustion or no buyers and at fib extention 0.23. The concern is the TSI running parralele while other indicators are also showing a reverse to down and finally it is a double top also. It has been in cycle rally and has a week and half to a DCL looking at 2 month iC. The double top could look like a cup and handle. I think the volume would be key looking all.
watch USDJPY! It should be interesting, very, very interesting! Red-hot.
Alex,
you said that USD will have its YCH in March? I see it in late April early May thats when gold starts its decent to new lows. Also you have USD/JYP at low forcast at 111….. I think it may go low further say 103 to 105 range before a strong bounce back up with USD ….. any thoughts ? Thanks
10-years yield is down >>> gold is up. [email protected]
CRB now at 193.22. It should jump some +1.35% from here to produce a right-translated Yearly Cycle, above the high of 195.88 on JUN06.
JPY starting a powerful bear rally should help PM segment tomorrow.
If we add an exhaustion bounce in oil and natural gas to this tomorrow, then CRB can get that +1.35% growth to set its YCH.
It looks like the DCL has begun in earnest. I’m very interested to see if its allowed to run to completion, or whether the PPT will step in to abort the sell off prematurely.
If they do then nothing will have changed from the Obama administration to the Trump one.
Or, it can be a sucker decline to lure premature shorts. Needs verification. We could get it pretty soon.
Gary: What are your thoughts on the action in the XAU today?
a serious question Gary. Your last post says that a DCL has begun in earnest, unless PPT doesn’t allow for it to happen. If this is the case then what’s the point of calling a DCL, let alone saying it has begun. Of course the fed and Trump cronies don’t want the markets to collapse and if they in fact can affect them to the extent you claim there is no point in following your analysis. It’s like saying tomorrow will be sunny, unless it rains.
jonsyl I agree with you. Saying this could be the start of the DCL unless they intervene is not actionable in any way. It is saying the market will either go up or it will go down and I have no idea which.
I want to see if the markets are allowed to complete a normal correction without an intervention to abort it prematurely. If so then we may finally be done with market interventions.
If we see another intervention then it’s going to be business as usual and nothing will have changed from Obama to Trump.
Gary- DCL in what????
Stocks
Looks to me like they are trying to start as many fires as possible for the incoming admin to have to deal with. Rate hike, China, Russia, Israel, Oil, Market Bubble, Housing, on and on. So I do not expect any relief from a decline. They want a total CRAP fest on the table for the new admin. The more time and resources to put out fires, the less “damage” they will be able to do to the legacy of the current admin.
I agree. If they can tank the economy during Trump’s first two years they may be able to turn the Senate Democrat in 2018.
Gmoney, trump will achieve that with little need from any other source. I agree with an earlier post of Gary, that there is an expectation of capital tax cut over and above corporate tax cut. These alone should give continued hope for markets inspite of Trump’s stupid tweets. They will be contested by republicans without offsetting cuts in due time which together with confused policy on most everthing will cause market to sink
I don’t know Dboz. I kind of think the future is all written in the charts already and not much would be different no matter who won. Do you follow grains by any chance? Have you been watching wheat contracts? Well that’s a good example of what i mean. Wheat has fallen so low its just getting stupid now. So I am predicting a major grain failure for the fall of 2017 since shortages are what it will take for prices to change direction at this stage. Corn is also at ridiculously low levels. Maybe it will be the North American harvest that comes in poorly and affects both major crops. Whatever happens will have global impacts though as there are only a handful of countries that export either crops in volumes that matter. Canada, the US, Australia and Ukraine come to mind first. China actually produces the largest wheat crop of any country. But they consume all of it themselves.
Maybe Armstrong is right and we have a really cold winter coming. He says a mini ice age is coming in the next decade or so. Another Maunder Minimum.
COT report told me all I needed to know. Commercials have
decreased short positions big time. Just like December 2015.
Short positions were increasing during summer of 2016. Time
to go long gold & the miners. Happy New Year!!!!!!!!!!!
You could be right. Let us see the strength of the gold bounce and subsequent retrace.
Commercials might be more often right than wrong but you can’t use what they do as a timing indicator, Kitten. They have a really bad habit of being waaaay too early but also having the deep pockets to stay in the game long enough that they still win anyway. Us ordinary folk are not usually in that position so timing is a bigger deal.
But I do agree with you it is a good sign for the bulls the way the COTS are reading lately.
$xau has been repelled thrice by 50 day ma. If xau is repelled again by 50 ma at 82, it will be more of the same. If on the other hand, if xau powers up to 200 ma and pulls back to 50 ma, it could signify a change in trend. In the process, both 20 ma and 50 ma will have turned up. Interesting times ahead.
Thanks to Gary, Pedestrian, Alex, ras & all the posters here.
Very informative & entertaining.
Well thank you Kitten
1145 break through. It’s on now.
I cant do any better gosh knows but the analysis here is pathetic.
nobody knows is perfect…
In case you haven’t figured it out no one has a crystal ball. No one knows what the future holds.
No one predicted the election night reversal, although lot’s of people here like to pretend they did.
The bears take it as a sign the gold bear is still in progress.
I think it just sidetracked the bull for a couple of months but didn’t change the secular picture, or stop the new bull market.
jnug@5:30
Victor, I tend to agree with you Alex on OIL, my volume indicators show exhaustion or no buyers and at fib extension 0.23. The concern is the TSI lines (will cross when turned) running parallel while other indicators are also showing a reverse to down and finally it is a double top also. It has been in cycle rally and has a week and half to a DCL looking at 2 month iC. The double top could look like a cup and handle. I think the volume would be key looking at all. So it has to go then a ABC down .
What is the comments ? If we looking at a bounce in Gold, what is the view for JNUG/NUG . If looking how it drop from 6jan-4 feb with gold correction. There possibly were greater down expectancy while sentiment chart indicate it more negative now?