I see a lot of traders scrambling right now and a lot of over trading. I’ve put together a game plan going forward to protect gains and avoid losses. You can view it in the morning report. Now isn’t the time to let your emotions run your trading.
Like I said yesterday, the stock market intervention yesterday to abort the natural move down into the yearly cycle low is a wild card. Until we see how this is going to effect the currency and gold cycles you need to be on the sidelines.
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So that the best they have in the arsenal huh? weak very weak. Im still very much long here.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/u/u23XtGrF.png
I hope you are right Bill, a major breakout in one of my preffered Gold stocks K92 +19% yesterday.
I’ve been averaging down for months now … however I’ve got some dry powder for alternatives.
Nice to see Gary adopting to my gameplan, early Feb I will take a look at JNUG …
a close of the breakout Gap at 1165?
Stox oxygen is about to run out imo! Be careful here …
Just another example of why I keep stressing not to short the stock market.
It’s almost impossible to win in a rigged game.
Once you understand they changed the rules in 2009 and resign yourself to play by the new rules you will save yourself a lot of headaches and losses.
The only time in the past the market has been able to ignore sentiment extremes, cycle failures, and overbought weekly conditions and just keep moving higher without a profit taking event was during periods of QE when there was a constant stream of new money flowing into the market.
Which begs the question are we in a new QE phase, but just no public announcement this time?
If so then there would be a fundamental driver for a dollar crash into the 3 YCL.
Looking at VAP there are some suspicious trades when DJIA had an impulsive up-move.
FED propping up the stockmarket? For how long?
Many refused to believe me when I said the gold market was being manipulated. Now of course we have proof I was correct.
Some still refuse to believe me when I say the stock market is being manipulated.
Folks the world changed in 2009. There’s no longer any such thing as free markets.
Manipulation has been part of the markets for centuries Gary, not just since 2009. They manage to flip cycles for a while but not longer term. In the end mother nature always win!
It’s not that people don’t believe you, we all witness it each day in the markets. The problem is that it comes with a healthy dose of cognitive dissonance, i.e. you realize that the stock market is manipulated so you won’t short it, yet you also realize that gold is manipulated, yet you still participate in it.
We all deal with it…I often wish that I had never traded a thing prior to 2008 because my trading instincts can do a lot of harm in markets that move unidirectionally with minimal retracements and a lot of busted patterns.
I sometimes wonder about these newer fund managers who seem to have developed algo’s with nothing but buy orders, it’s the most absurd thing I’ve seen.
Gary, it looks to me like the S&P is in a steeper parabolic than 2000 or 2007.
It is parabolic Gmoney. From a 10,000 foot view the chart has gotten quite strange. This is no doubt what Gartman sees and why he is now endorsing stocks since he is a momentum chaser. Check the DOW and tell me if you think this is sustainable for long because I really have my doubts. Notice the nearly 3000 point vertical ramp at the top? We have not seen anything even remotely like it in the past 15 years! And not just because of Gartman I get the creeps from this kind of pattern. These kind are virtually always topping technicals.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m1
Thanks for the chart Pedestrian. I lived through the Dotcom bubble and the euphoria of the last several weeks feels like the end stages of that bubble. Look at CAT and IBM. Declining revenues quarter after quarter and the are going ballistic this week.
Pedestrian:
The past three weeks I’ve felt that the markets were almost “flash crash-y”. hard to fill on certain orders, kind of a “trade thru” type scenario on various orders, as if no one wants to take on any risk…and just as stocks hit day 52 (seriously check out the cycles and what day Sept 9, 2016 landed on), this thing gets a middle of the night lift (with a bunch of VIX hammering to accommodate.) No Dollar-Yen, no crude oil ramps to get it out of the range, just some raw heavy handed buy em ugly type stuff.
mkt is about money supply.. it is a party until fed take the money out of the system ..
exactly and when they do watch out, it may come sooner than later …
Gary, You’re making one big mistake that your not consistent with. You’re correct when you say most people over-trade. And the only confirmed BULL market for the last 8 years have been equities. How many times have you kept your followers out of the market waiting for cycle lows when buy and hold has been the ONLY correct strategy.
Simple. Equities are in a REAL STRONG BULL MARKET. Until that changes, BUY and HOLD is the ONLY strategy if people want to make money!
Correction. We started this rally at +50% in the metal portfolio. As of the exit yesterday we were up 134.8%.
That’s actually a 57% increase. Not 84%.
Still 57% in 4 weeks isn’t bad. 🙂
In a market like this, the surprises will ALWAYS be on the upside!
I am BULLISH until SPX 2700+.
LiesandDamnLies,
Interesting thoughts on the Chinese New Year effect.
Would you kindly re-calculate your predictions, for the record?
I just looked up the New Moon: 28 Jan 2017, 00:07 UTC
Then went to
http://publicholidays.cn/
https://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/china/
Jan 27 Friday Spring Festival Eve National holiday
Jan 28 Saturday Chinese New Year National holiday
Jan 29 Sunday Spring Festival Golden Week holiday National holiday
Jan 30 Monday Spring Festival Golden Week holiday Common Local holidays
Jan 31 Tuesday Spring Festival Golden Week holiday Common Local holidays
Feb 1 Wednesday Spring Festival Golden Week holiday Common Local holidays
Feb 2 Thursday Spring Festival Golden Week holiday Common Local holidays
fomc 1/31
obvious equity breakout on Trump happy talk, judging from past this should provide 50 to 75 spx points before another consolidation as with previous eight weeks or so, then another chance of a reversal. Keep saying unless you’re a day gambler best to watch for that to happen with conviction reversals in vix, dollar and yen. None of which are happening in spite of all the speculations.
Gold’s biggest issue relates to its relevance with all the happy talk coming from Trump and company. Safety now is with US equities and ability of US corporations pumping up their stock values with repatriation of offshore accounts and happy talk from Trump wall street swamp dwellers. Those who unwittingly voted for him will soon discover they will have to wait their turn for any trickle down benefit.
gary,
is fed going to raise rate 2/1 ? what is your take?
The odds are heavily against it.
Excellent sell calls by Gary and many here. Whether it will work for days, weeks, or months remains to be seen, but breach of 1200 convinced me Smart Money is the right name, for majority of posters, at least for now.
I’m tickled by dollar hanging onto 3 digits for dear life. Seems like the unrecognized variable to me. I think if it were to break, BOTH stocks and gold would benefit, which doesn’t seem to fit in your scenario Gary. Comments?
Dennis Gartman is now bullish on the stock market. never discount that fool’s almost perfect record of being wrong. I am shorting the the stock market with renewed confidence.
It’s a warning to get the hell out if you ask me. If stocks crater (sorry, I meant correct) then gold could take off like a bat out of hell since that is the correlation right now. Stocks up and gold down and vice-versa. My biggest worry on the short side is that I am holding a position the day the stock market takes a flyer off the high board and my trade gets squashed like road kill in the process.
He seems to bat at about 1000, doesn’t he.
I sure wish I had dumped all my silver as I did my platinum assets. I will buy back the platinum and add to the silver but not just yet.
The stock market is way over bought but if is about to make a top of sorts, it could go higher yet. I am not waiting to short because a reversal could be sharp, swift and overnight.
Gary, let’s stop with the ‘intervention’ nonsense. Why in the world would the FED intervene in the markets when they are at all time highs? Stock markets all over the world are soaring and that is not due to American FED ‘intervention’.
Like I said no one believed me when I said the gold market was being manipulated. Now we know for a fact I was right.
Even in a strong market there should be normal proft taking events to reset sentiment. We haven’t had one in almost a year. That’s not normal market behavior, that is PPT protection.
Note the gap fill
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/v/VqvEoBs8.png
End of day bounce today?
Watch the bond market. It’s threatening to break down like I suggested about a week ago.
If bonds start to crash it’s going to negate the manipulation in the stock market. At that point the Fed will have much bigger problems than trying to artificially prop up stocks.
I dunno Gary. When I see something pull back this far I don’t usually think that its going to break down further so much as my instincts tell me its like an elastic about to snap back. The bond market is setting up for a very sizeable bounce and perhaps it will be an equities correction that brings that on. The 30 year bond has maybe another 2 dollars and change in this decline before it hits important support. That’s also where gold should see a strong bounce. I mention this because I have noticed there is stealth buying taking place in the gold miner market. Even as GDX and the HUI were falling there were quite a number of gold stocks that performed really well the last few days. We are perhaps being deceived and I need to check my technicals more closely to confirm it. Secondly, the charts I have been watching are getting too obvious. And you know what happens. As soon as everyone catches on the game ends and goes the other direction.
Totally agree Pedestrian. We must be looking at the same charts. I should also mention that there is a big cycle in play there that hit right around the initial lows a few weeks back. In my opinion, a nice spec position with some options in bonds or TLT looks more attractive then buying puts on the stock indicies. Obviously, it’s playing on the same theme, but I’ve already seen that bonds have been respecting a “two way” trade far more than the rigged S&P and other indicies (Russell is probably the closest thing to a semi-honest index these days).
DXY https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/5/5Wk9aabj.png
NUGT https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/o/okMqmI4M.png
In the past it has been said that Markets are bigger than the manipulators.
It looks like that has changed since 2009, that the manipulators, the PPT, Federal Reserve, other Central Banks, BIS and their crony TBTF banks are BIGGER than the markets.
Agreed Dreamer, but look at the tactics and it becomes clearer. A lot of the gains come via overnight ramps, FOMC ramps and other assort hijinx. Once you remove those from the equation, the indicies essentially “flatline” over great periods of time.
Er, Gary, EVERYBODY knows their has been manipulation of the gold market and that it has been going on for years. It is not you great ‘discovery.
The German DAX was up 1.83%, the Nikkei up 1.43% EuroStoxx up 1.52%. If the FED was intervening , and I don’t believe that for a second, one would think they would have driven up the S&P a little more than 0.82% today and closed it above the 3000 level for the shock and awe value.
Stoxx has a head and shoulders pattern on it right now. So fair warning to all. Stay alert. With this recent sharp move in markets you just have to wonder if a surprise is not in store for us fairly soon.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=EX&p=w1
Er, Gary, EVERYBODY knows there has been manipulation of the gold market and that it has been going on for years. It is not your great discovery.
Nice close I recall a trader once said ” everything will move up together ” that trader was Gary.
I don’t think they drive it up, the just give it a shove any time it starts moving down hill. Otherwise they leave it be. The futures is the easiest way for them to control it. They get the momentum going in the morning and then things take care of themselves.
Exactly. They just prevent important technical levels from being broken. That would trigger downward momentum and be much harder to stop.
But in the process they aren’t allowing the normal profit taking events that should occur in a healthy market. A rising market needs those cleansing periods to reset sentiment.
All markets are moved via currencies, guys. That’s where the action always happens. Don’t you ever ask yourselves how it is that the Yen controls gold, the Canadian dollar moves crude and USD impacts on most commodities. Each have their place.
Yes normally..However, there have been numerous equity market ramps with/without the dollar, with/without the yen-carry, etc, etc…I believe that this is a major component of the manipulation in so much as traders will “key off” one component of the ramp and when that falters, the “all clear” seems present and that just creates another source of future liquidity “short covering” to add additional fuel…It’s so damn blatant at various stages.
Probably see gold back at 1210 sometime tomorrow. Another opportunity therefore awaits to either sell stock into that bounce or take a short position before the larger more serious gold decline gets underway. That’s my take on the market anyway. Bought and sold within pennies of bottoms and tops this last go-round and eventually went back to cash since I didn’t have the energy to start anything new as the close came. Sometimes you need to reset your brain and get your bearings. You miss things but its better to stay cool and avoid mistakes that come with being tired.
Good point! I am very tired and always feel like I am on the brink of losing it all quickly. Up is slow, down is fast.
We must both be getting old Boss.
Gary, do you still think we are now in a PM bull market or do you now feel there has been a sea change?
I still think it’s a bull market.
Any thoughts on what happened to Palladium today?
Sure thing. Check this weekly chart. Palladium is a Yo-yo.
Up-down Up-down Up-down.
Except now its put in an outside week so I suppose it will Yo-Yo in the down direction for awhile.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=PA&p=w1
Other than that I have no idea since I don’t follow it!
Closed short position this morning on miners. Don’t have a clue wat happens next but it looks like gold will bounce tomorrow. It’s late in the cycle according to Gary so no sense commiting to longs yet. Stock market prbly pulls back tomorrow
gold targeting 1140… remember my note few days ago that “its going to be impossible for gold to break 1220” and that has come true…
You’re just following Armstrong. He missed the entire baby bull and he missed this rally out of the YCL.
He did? Do you get his gold reports?
I did up until a year ago… I was also a member of TF metals report as well I gave up on the noise makers .
I have to agree with you… Armstrong has turned out to be big idiot… I read his stupid reports and he really confuses everyone because he is making predictions based on long term charts
As per tomorrow….
What is going to be the deal?
Let our minds figure out the plausible scenarios and how to trade them.
I only pocketed $700 day trading today. I will have fun at the grocery store this evening.
Pedestrian must be planning a very nice vacation…
Still all in cash.
Good trading to all.
Kind of funny Goild. My wife told me to stop talking about money and start spending a little more. I think she needs attention. I might take a break from the keyboard for awhile.
Pedestrian,
Yes, have fun but do not go for long as you would be missed here.
Thanks man.
Zkotpen
I agree with you Chinese holiday dates. However millions of Chinese would already be on the move a few days before the holidays begin to get the full week with their families, so it sort of starts early. I believe when the market is being played it starts before the holidays begin (the set up) and then plays out a number of days after the Chinese traders come back to their desks. If the play is on they come back to a rising NUGT and JNUG and run with the flow for while.
The last 2 days of stock market rises (which Gary attributes to the PPT but I think its our bankster players) seems to be the perfect set up for a play over the Chinese holiday season for all the gold bull multiplers.
There is a strong possibility of at least another one or even two day surge in the stock markets further forcing down the gold bull multipliers again to enhance the set up for the coming action.
Last night II wrote my predictions at 1AM our time. I did make a mistake on the JNUG starting point 12.72 for the 25th January was plainly wrong. I looked up the wrong chart and we are a day ahead of you.
So I’ll have another go at my predictions for the coming Chinese holiday play. This is assuming that the SM topped on the 25th. If there is one more up day for the SM tomorrow the calculations will start at a lower starting point.
* 2017 Jan 25th NUGT = 10.57 >>>> Feb 7 to Feb 9 NUGT ( 14.2 — 20.0)
* 2017 Jan 25th JNUG = 8.68 >>>>> Feb 7 to Feb 9 JNUG ( 13.8 — 16.9 )
the HUI, XAU and GDX will also be played during this period if I’m right. I can only see the volumes on the NUGT and JNUG. While the volumes on the NUGT were up marginally last night on the average volume for the week, JNUG volumes were steady. So maybe the SM will rise for one more day.
Its the SM sell off that will trigger the play action. It may happen before the end of the week but I think that Monday the 30th is the most likely.
Lies
Forget all the conspiracy stuff. You have a day and a half to figure out what happens when fourth quarter GDP comes in hot. What happens to the dollar and treasury yields and what does that imply for gold, stocks and other commodities?