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I am not a chartist but isn’t this the point where they should turn back down if you were playing the bounce from the December bottom?
Gold should also break the intermediate down trend line before the intermediate cycle rally is over. That would be a break above 1300.
The bullish percent needs to get overbought as well.
Sentiment is still dead neutral. It should become excessively bullish before the intermediate cycle tops.
Gary – do you make anything in the break in copper today?
Looks like it might be ready to drop into an ICL in the weeks ahead.
There is a possibility that gold goes up to 1300 but miners underperform. Stock market selloff may pressure miners while gold has the better performance
I was wondering about a stock market sell off since it looks like copper has finally turned down convincingly.
Imagine if gold went up $400 in 45 days like bitcoin has.
It will. Patience gwasshoppa, patience.
Bitcoin’s rise is purely a symptom of all currencies being rapidly devalued, and the beginning of a very vicious unwinding globally, so once we get past the point where the gold manipulation by banksters is overwhelmed completely by massive buying pressure, then you’ll see $100 days, $400 weeks, and even $1000 month price rises. It will be breathtaking in its awesome power, but at the same time, the world around you will become infinitely more expensive for the simplest of things. $10 coffees from MCdonalds, $20 fries, and $50 gallons of milk.
Gary please share thoughts on OIL ?
I’m still waiting for the weekly stochastics to cycle back down to oversold before I’ll get interested in oil again. At some point this year we’ll get a yearly cycle low. When it happens I’ll be ready to buy energy and energy stocks.
Haha they look a long way from oversold on that chart.
I’ve got all year. I can wait.
I love this. The art of patience is still aliive!
The 200 week MA means nothing. The last three times gold broke through that average proved to have no predictive value. Gold may go higher but it has nothing to do with some arbitrary moving average. As for stochastics, anyone who has used them as a trading tool finds out fairly quickly just how long the stochastics can remain in over bought/ over sold territory. I stopped looking at stochastics years ago when I realized they were a trap for amateurs.. Sentiment is, by far, the best indicator to follow if one knows how to interpret it properly. For example, bullish sentiment after a long bear market means something entirely different than the same sentiment after a long bull move.
Don – What are your thoughts on Platinum and Palladium? Their charts do not look as bullish right now as gold or silver. Also the gold/platinum ratio is beginning to widen with gold out performing platinum.
I have a stake in platinum and think it will out perform gold over the next several months. I have no holdings in palladium and don’t much care for it as a PM investment.
Gary…. you have to mention the miners….
dead in the water…………
thanks
If gold had a $18 dollar down day tomorrow do you think the miners would remain flat or would we get one of those big red candle days?
Hi tulip, he commented on it towards the end of the last blog post…
looks like gdxj could tag 34 and gdx to 20 according to analyst that I follow…
It seems all to obvious to me. Gold spikes, miners dont follow and everyone second guesses and sells. I’m a more of an old turkey guy anyway so I will be holding
They may be selling to the banks who want to accumulate at lower prices…
One has to take everything with a grain of salt in today’s managed markets.
Look at how the miners bottomed last January with a lower low. I warned everyone that it was likely a manufactured move so big money could accumulate. Most people assumed the worst and ended up selling at the bottom.
The moral of the story: Don’t read too much into one or two day moves. Big money can paint the charts to get retail traders and hedge funds to react in the wrong direction.
So you and your analyst looking for a 15% move to the downside. That would be a nice trade. let us know how it works out.
Although I was happy with the performance of the precious metals today, I do believe the lack of strength in the gold miners is something to keep an eye on.
I am sensing we are close to turbulence in the general market which can impact the performance of the miners sometimes.
As Ped already pointed out (and I concur) , the miners are telling you the PM’s are headed down. OTC OPEX for LBMA delivery starts tomorrow. Gold always spikes (like today into HEAVY 1250 resistance) before a selloff. The dollar is in an intermediate uptrend with resistance at 101. 74. Once thats taken out, hedge funds will short cover and begin a steep $ rally. PM’s NEED to pullback here to generate energy for a lasting rally. Just look at the daily MACD and Slow Stocastics-they’re telling you all you need to know. GDX back down to the 50 dma would set up a superb base (possible inverted H/S) for the next leg up. Sell lightly into heavy overhead resistance and buy at or below heavy support (or write out of the money covered calls above overhead resistance).
Interesting how GLD and SLV are not as bullish (yet) compared to the chart of the Day.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=W&st=1980-02-23&en=(today)&id=p47325827345
Looks good to me.. Let’s get some follow through tomorrow.
not going anywhere for another year
Folks look at those charts. Silver 9 up weeks in a row. Gold 8 out of 9 weeks up.
Yet so many traders continue trying to fight the trend.
Gold completed its bear market last year. It’s making higher highs and higher lows.
Does it take a sledge hammer to make this sink in???
The average trader takes 2-3 years before they finally recognize a major trend reversal and convert to bull market strategies. We did it last year almost instantaneously.
Currently the market is different than in January. The correlations are breaking, miners are lagging, SM is knots. There is no easy money anymore. After nine weeks of running up, it may run two weeks down.
And if it runs up two more weeks, what do you do?
To play use Gary’s advice to buy whenever is over sold on the weekly chart while sentiment is extreme.
Or day trade.
Or join the SMT premium and let Gary do the thinking.
Option trader,
Would you please give us a summary about how you read the charts?
You mentioned it yesterday. Would you please?
Gary: “Gold completed its bear market last year. It’s making higher highs and higher lows.”
Both gold and the HUI are still trading under their 10-month moving averages. And the HUI is in the process of being rejected by said moving average this month. If it’s a bull, they’d be trading over this moving average and climbing away from it. No dice and no bull. If gold is going to 5,000, 10,000, or a quadrillion. Plenty of time to hop on. In the meantime, it’s just knife catching.
Has Trump been dumped yet? No, then the trend is ur friend. Gary says 1300, believe him and believe Trump even more. Buy any dips, they wont last long. Trump is destabilizing the world, trying to destroy the EU for his buddy putin. Increasing nuclear arsenal, telling fbi what to do, telling intelligence to find dirt to back his ban, telling Mexico to take all illegals even if they are not Mexican, cmon guys. How can this be normal???? Trump is the best thing for gold, ur charts arent working out for one major political fool, der feurher. Ok u trump apologists may resume ur pathetic a– sucking on ur great leader. Buy gold and silver in these very uncertain times.
why Gary allows you here at this pt is …………….
pls disappear………..
Looks like someone Forgot to refill their Prozac….
Nice inverse head an shoulders in NUGT 15 chart , case no one noticed…
Indeed. Quick drop in the last 30 minutes!
The channel theory for gold stands that since 2013 gold has been in a channel around $1200.
TIP and JPY (FXY) correlate with Gold. Gold itself is a measure of inflation and so one can understand the correlation with TIP. Why gold correlates with JPY? Who knows but it does.
XAU also correlates with Gold, JPY and TIP since 2013.
So the channel theory is the best theory currently.
There is nothing in the horizon to make gold breakout from this channel.
Yes, if inflation comes yes, but unfortunately inflation will be kept very low as US cannot afford higher interest rates.
So the gas to pump up Gold and the miners is being exhausted pretty soon.
The channel theory is the best we have currently, I pose.
Hardly gold will hit $1350.00 this year.
We shall see.
Goild,
I review charts from the monthly all the way down to the 5 minute chart.
I spent about 1 1/2 years virtual trading and studying chart/candlestick behavior. Each night I went over all my trades and studied what the charts and candlesticks were doing at the time I executed them. On the weekends I studied for hours, going back day by day by day to learn what was happening on the charts when intra day reversals took place.
I learned the language of the candlesticks, their shapes, color and characteristics which all stand for something. They also act cooperatively to indicate set ups and confirmations of a particular direction.
In conjunction with moving averages and Bollinger bands, the candlesticks give me all information that I need to know.
Unfortunately, it’s literally impossible to describe the characteristics of the candles without me showing you in person. It’s a language and you can’t explain it. It has to be learned.
My First set ups ocurr on the longer term charts (monthly and weekly). My confirmation set ups follow on the daily charts.
With that in mind, tomorrow will complete my confirmation set up for SLV as long as there is no heavy reversal to the downside. All the candlesticks will be in order to confirm SLV is ready for a bullish move. Let’s see what happens.
I think you should stick to virtual trading. Your recent recommendations have been nothing short of disastrous.
Ouch!. Terry, I think you don’t follow anyone else trade ideas but your own, so no worries for you with what folks post…or…you could help him with his learning? I would hope people do not blindly follow trades from anonymous posters on a free blog..
You’re right, I don’t follow anyone else’s trades. Instead I take their analyses into consideration and it does sometimes affect my own trades.
There are many traders here who provide balanced, constructive advice. Pedestrian, zkotpen, dday, don, ras to name a few. And even goild sometimes although he can be a little impulsive.
I have tried providing actionable advice here before, only to get laughed at. So now i post real-time trades because results are the final arbiter of how good your trading ability is.
I agree with your assessment of the negative commentary by some posters. Like you, I like to hear others thoughts, even on products I don’t trade. I think the idea is for everyone to make money. We are just the little guys in the market. I have been following your posts and continued success.
Option trader,
Thank you, I appreciate it.
It gives me a general idea of your approach, The more salient points is that you primarily rely in charts, and that you use the candles as a language. It also shows that you have been carefully in learning to trade.
Again thanks.
If silver does not reverse then why enter it when it is away from the weekly averages?
I guess there reasons are: 1) SLV is trending, is currently bullish, 2) SLV is just entering the weekly oversold.
So there is still a bit of room in the upside.
Though the SLV weekly volume is going down…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GPL&p=W&st=2006-02-23&en=(today)&id=p68073575432
Nice Chart. Sitting across the room looks like it wants to go to $4.00 Big cup and handle.
Closed my EURUSD @ 1.0580 and XAUUSD @ 1248.10 (made 40 pips and 140 pips respectively). All trades posted here REAL-TIME.
It seems like none of the bugs here are making money. I have shown you guys repeatedly how to trade the price. All you have to do is lose your directional bias and open your damn eyes. Oh well… you can bring a horse to the water, but you sure as shit can’t make it drink.
Gary, your buy on GDXJ at the open yesterday was ill-timed imo. What happened to buying the dips, as you always like to preach? You are buying into strength and selling into weakness, a mistake you always chastise others for.
I suspect it will turn out that I bought on day 1 of a new daily cycle. I’m not sure how you can call that buying on strength.
Some of the stuff you come up with makes no sense at all???
Just like copper, Transports produced a weekly swing high and are in confirmed daily cycle decline about to fail.
Natural gas is leading all risk-on assets in its confirmed YC decline for several weeks.
Utilities and staples are up out of -H&S leading Treasuries which show nervousness to restart TRENDING.
When Treasuries start up strong these days, gold will exhaust to its ICH too and USD to its ICL.
I wonder if this will create more Gold manipulation or more flowing through the market for better price , Gary .
This seems like opening a bigger hole in the the chicken pen and giving the the fox sheep clothing with another gold market headed now by banks. Any opinions on this new situation.
Will they just make their money with the flow of trades creating an environment with less need to minupulate with sales revenue in the spread of price. Will Profits in ths manner do the trick knowing what other backs do to prohibit minepulation and then including the asian market which is more excluded presently.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-23/lme-hands-gold-banks-license-print-money
Banks, not backs.
The banks could possibly not woory about minupulation in their market as the more trades , the better is concern. Fees is more value than just owning it. N tax on turn over is the aim on all money for banks in the cashless outlook, as a higher turnover begets the more fees
Sorry ipad , not so hot anymoreeeeeeeee..hahaha
Ped, hows ur short in gold and silver doing. Dont fight the trump embarrassment, as Sean Spicer so well said yesterday and is the whole trump phenomenon. ” WE HAVE A TREMENDOUS RELATIONSHIP WITH MEXICO. ” Right! And soon a tremendous repeal and replace, and a tremendous import tax, and a tremendous relationship with Russia. Gary says buy gold and silver. It truly is a tremendous opportunity.