The intermediate cycle low in stocks is expected sometime this week. The rising price trend line is likely to be broken to the downside before the bottom is reached. The dollar will probably bottom at the same time as the stock market, with the precious metals putting in a top.
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As it turns out I was right about the dollar all along 🙂
That being said I would never trade the currencies. They are the most manipulated markets on the planet.
Dude,
You change your positions ever so often, it is hard to believe when you say you were “right” and what “market call” to trust.
Didn’t you say USD is headed for a free fall into 3 yr. cycle low…now you are saying it is stuck in a range ?!?!
I guess broken clock is right twice a day!
Dude,
Just admit it. You were wrong and I was right. The dollar is falling into it’s yearly cycle low right now. It did not go to 110 like you were predicting.
I think the currencies are probably going to be stuck in a range for several years. 103 on the high side. Maybe 90ish on the low side.
I don’t always get the short term timing right. And I don’t win on every trade, but the portfolios are consistently making money.
We are getting positioned now to make some money in the stock portfolio.
Weekly CCI Cross Down on Major Indexes… $SPX, $INDU, $COMPQ. The $TRAN CCI has gone below -100 leading the way for what could happen to other Indexes… Oversold can stay oversold for a long time… all these are on the verge of taking out there Monthly Pivots… possibly turning the whole Month into a Gap n Crap month… if these Indexes take out the Monthly Pivot it will be the first time in about 3 Months… Indicating that these Indexes are Under Pressure… and Should not be Brought Now or Earlier… I see Nothing to Back any kind of Buy Recommendation for the Major Indexes… More Downside to Come… the Unexpected… Watch Out Below… good luck with your call Gary 🙂
At every single cycle bottom I get the same doubt. No one every wants to buy at bottoms and no one ever wants to sell at tops.
Like I always say human nature never changes. It’s why most people never make any money.
You would think after watching me get these turns right over and over folks would start to pay attention but they never do.
Stocks are going to put in a bottom this week, maybe it occurred today. Either way you can take that one to the bank.
It’s not doubt… I just Question your ability to Call Market Bottoms… now that is Smart Money… since I have follow ed your Blog… if I had followed you advice I would have been stuck in losing trades… that is why I have not tried your pay service… I’ve been following you since around August/September 2016. I find that you calls tend to be a bit early and often wrong on the how much more downside… but I will give you and the blog credit… you have made me re-examine some of my sloppy… but lucky trades… Your blog is a Contrarian Indicator to me… which means… Stay on the Sidelines and don’t force Swing Trades or Day Trades… anyone can make an Entry… getting out with a Profit… I don’t see you Gary using any Method on a regular basis… that people can use to judge your mistakes… it would be different… but when you trades don’t work out or a sector is not doing… You Blame Market Manipulation… you can pull up all the stories you want on Market Manipulation… but in the end… what everyone needs to Recognize is that you are making bad calls and not taking responsibility… what is gonna be your excuse next week… when this week is just another week of Lower Lows… I call it supply and demand… but you call it Market Manipulation… no one is going to buy or subscribe to your service when you won’t own up to all your mistakes and stop blaming market manipulation… or blaming your subscribers for not listening… every time I do a search for you I get some crashing site… with Gary haters… I am not a Gary hater or part of that group… but from what I see on this blog… is that you need to Man Up and stop making excuses for bad calls… I am not against you Gary… but there is old saying: For those who want to- Find a Way… those who don’t Find an Excuse… I would also recommend you go some chart classes and really learn how to use the indicators correctly- p
That’s nonsense. The metal portfolio went from +50% to + 130%.
The problem is you are trying to day trade off my calls and I’m not trying to time day trades. I’m trying to trade intermediate swings.
This is what most retail traders do. They expect a call to pay off instantly. If it doesn’t they consider it a loss. If they only would hold the trade until it’s complete then they would make money.
We are setting up to make good money in the stock portfolio right now. Will I time a perfect entry? Probably not. Does that mean it’s going to be a losing trade? Of course not.
You have to change the way you think and expand your time horizon a bit if you want to make money in the markets.
It’s just criminal what they are doing to the mining stocks.
Gold bugs need to be prepared. They are going to try to run the stops below the Dec. lows during the next ICL.
I get a kick out of these post… Gary your now one of my Contrarian Indicator… I agree with some of your ideas… but I think your timing is a bit early for some: I don’t think the ICL will happen this week… UPRO, TQQQ, FAS, UDOW are very close… in taking out or possibly below the 50 MA… today being a Gap Down… Lower Low… Lower High activity is not Bullish… the Weekly CCI Indicator on these ETF’s show Sell Signal just starting… and with today’s Gap Down… an ICL… a Brave Call… and an Early Call if you have nothing to LOSE… now is not the time to Buy… but it is the Time sit of Cash and Wait… and today the VIX spiked up towards 14’s… with a Rising 50 MA which is bearish for the SP500 and friends… and go back and look at the VIX around November 2016… wow the VIX- 12 Oct 2016 went to VIX 23 Nov 2016… a big bearish move 1 Month… anyone who really thinks this is an ICL needs to look at VIX… yes I like GDX and JNUG… I DO NOT THINK THE MINING STOCK OR MINING ETF’S ARE GOING TO BREAK DECEMBER ICL… I appreciate you post Gary… we just have very different on views on Entry Points… take care- p
Hmm that seems like a stretch. So when do you think the next low could occur in mining stocks, around May/June?
I think the low has already occurred around March 07, 2017… if you look at JNUG… it’s made a Double Bottom after making a 50% Retracement from the big run in had in 2016… on the Weekly Chart CCI is below -0- and rising… the real fun happens when Weekly Chart CCI for JNUG hits over 100+ and stays… like it did in Feb 2016… GDX by comparison looks good… but I expect JNUG to catch up… Only the daily JNUG is above the 20 MA and yet is below the 50 MA… CCI is above -0-… an early indicator is when Daily CCI hits over 100+… So Answer your Question… I think the Low is already in place… anything that is not showing a pattern similar to GDX show be left alone for now… p
Paul JNUG should drop im just not certain if it will go as low as the Dec bottom
Robert a Double Bottom is in place with JNUG going from Dec 16 to early March 17… this Double Bottom formed after a 50% Retracing 2016 move up… this may look at first a bit extreme of charts… but given that it is X3 I expect JNUG to catch up with GDX and friends… look at $GOLD and it’s about 8 or 9 pts away from the early March High… something that could be taken out this week or in early part of April ***$GOLD last week has taken out its monthly Pivot of 1240… GDX is close to taking out it’s monthly Pivot which is near 23.75
JNUG monthly Pivot is 9.40 and has traded below this all month… I think it might catch with $GOLD… as it looks like it wants to take out the early March High and if that happens… I would expect JNUG to try and take out its high around 8.06…
Gary, the more I watch price action on various stocks and etfs the more I believe you are correct in that everything is being managed or manipulated. With digital stocks and digital money this is completely possible especially when you are the creators of this digital mess.
FYI- I have been on the sidelines for over 3 weeks… waiting in cash… I do make a few day trades… but mostly swing trades… if I had listened to your Advice when I first came to your blog around August/September 2016 I would have lost money badly in metals… I gave you benefit of the doubt… not being a subscriber and did not know how you had traded metals and gold in the past… I’ve been in the market since 92/93… I had been working downtown in the Boston in Financial District from 1989 to 2013… Boston Financial District is home to many Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds… I met worked and talked with co- workers about the Market on a daily basis… I learned old school style by reading the IBD (investor business daily) William O’Neil’s great book- How to Make Money In Stocks… was how I learned to read charts… at this point in my life I do take a position unless the Risk- Reward is in my favor… Entry is key to making money and Exit plan is even better… you might call that Day Trading… I call it Risk Management… I am not against you Gary… but we differ in Views slightly… although I have no positions in the Stock Market at this time… I think there is more Upside in GDX and JNUG… they both need to get above there March Pivots of 23.88 and 9.40… Although you think $GOLD will not break the March high… I think differently on that until I am proven wrong… ***I would not buy the breakout until I saw how either GDX or JNUG held up in April after the first trading days past it’s new Pivot… why April??? I want to know if GDX or JNUG start April trading below the monthly Pivot of April… as far as UPRO and UDOW… you are having a bounce from yesterday… as they hit March Pivot and bounced off from them today… but I avoid them both although they are above the 50 MA which is helpful… they are trading below the 20 MA and the Daily CCI is oversold -127… I like buy situations where the 20 MA is rising with price trading into or trading above it… with daily CCI rising up above -0- into +100… yes that right… I like to CCI to demonstrate overbought stretch… that is following the Trend or as some might call it Momentum… it is easier to make money in a Trending Market… then try to call a Bottom or Reversal… only to find yourself early and the more Dominate Trend pattern returns… I understand how you might like the short term bounce… but for my set up… the Risk-Reward is just not worth… I can’t think of the last time I have had a losing trade besides… TQQQ about 1.5 yrs ago… my own stupid mistake… it cost me a little over $200 to cut my loses… but that was because I was trying to cheat… and I knew it… and a result of over trading… since following your blog… it has actually helped to have a bit more patience… take care- p
Gary
It’s a worry that since your have gone off gold and its in an bull phase. I sold a little of my Aussie gold stock on your recommendation, I am glad that it was just a little,
Your are pushing the SM bubble and someone I have followed Nadeem Walayat on Market Oracle,com is suggesting a fall of SM into June , July.
Both theories can fit it the SM rises into later March April and then falls into May.
However I am not going to let go of my gold stocks soon, Just in case there is a fall from now to late June.
cheers Lies
PS Pedestrian”s mirror , mirror on the wall prediction of Silver heading to $10 on 18th of Feb is worth a mention. When it hits $20 I will post the full message.
These same dire predictions always emerge as a market, any market, is dropping into an ICL.
June would be way too stretched for an ICL. It’s in the timing band now. The bottom is going to happen sometime this week.
I’m watching sentiment. Once it gets bearish we should have the bottom, unless the PPT intervenes and stops the correction prematurely.
I went over both scenarios in the video. An early bottom today or tomorrow probably leads to the T1 scenario. A bottom later in the week would be a final ICL.
Based on the NDX and BKX today we may end up with the T1 scenario.
Readers note… some of the writers on Market Oracle… are Super Bears… and Gold Bugs… they re-write there trade history fit a phony track record… think “Harry Dent” use weekly charts and the CCI is good guide… StockCharts.com is a good service and will give you all the Tools needed for correct entry… I like this blog… because of the sometimes opposing views… set off the Alarms: for my BS Detector…
Nadeem Walayat of Marketoracle has been a super bull since 2009 calling the bottom and only a few months ago did he turn bearish on the market. He thinks we will correct 20% into the summer then go higher again. He has been spot on with his bullish calls for years. No idea if his bearish call will pan out. Guessing 20% correction into summer is unrealistic.
Readers note… some of the writers on Market Oracle… are Super Bears… and Gold Bugs… they re-write there trade history fit a phony track record… think “Harry Dent” use weekly charts and the CCI is good guide… StockCharts.com is a good service and will give you all the Tools needed for correct entry… I like this blog… because of the sometimes opposing views… set off the Alarms: for my BS Detector…
Please do Lies. And don’t forget you made the promise. At this point all signs still point to lower prices in the ongoing bear market in all precious metals. The threshold gold must now surpass to break the trend line resistance is 1300 dollar gold and each month that minimum level drops a little lower. I had already warned months ago that if gold could not exceed 1300 by the end of March it would not happen and the bear would persist.
The only hope you have of seeing higher gold prices by June/July is if this current stock market correction is strong enough to push gold up and over the top turning it bullish again. Otherwise the trend remains downward and on that note take special care because as soon as this correction ends gold and silver will reverse all the flight to safety gains they have made these past 10 days.
And back down she goes along with the fortunes of most mining companies.
Mostly guys like you are too cocky by a country mile trading more on BS and bluster than by chart skill. Take a look at DSLV and notice that it has just retested its support line meaning a bounce is very likely in the cards. As it rises so silver falls. And also take notice of the upside potential. Gary could well be correct that this equity market decline is almost over and perhaps that’s what silver and gold are also telling us.
I suspect you are going to be another of the casualties along the way buying heavily into a gold fantasy and so you probably deserve your losses. Maybe I will repost your comments after an appropriate decline so your nose can be rubbed in it. That might settle you down.
1280 – 1300 could be choppy 🙂
Concentrate on today. What happens a few days later? We will handle that when we get there. As long as gs and jpm are under pressure, SM not going anywhere in a hurry, no matter what anyone says.
Gary
I am playing for gold higher than today by June/ July whatever the path the SM takes. I will benefit if the SM rises short term with the other stocks I hold rise over the next few weeks. Then I will sell out looking for opportunities at lower prices. Holding Aussie gold miners stocks into June/ July.
Time will tell. Good luck folks.
cheers Lies
Don, where are you at buddy? Do you think it’s too late to short the stock market? What about the gold miners, you staying out? Still holding mine but they are not going up as much as I would like to see.
BigDaddy, just watching. Too late to short the SM? No, I think there is more pain coming. As I have said a few times, I don’t trust the miners but do concede that they may go up. I feel more comfortable in the metals but did sell gold this morning, keeping silver and platinum. I have noticed that my penny stocks are not moving up at all with today’s gold rally. That is a concern.
……
Lol, Gary. Tis nadeem is often right in his assessments. So don’t say that he is a perma bear. He saw this super bull run much earlier than many. Also guys, be careful. Watch your calendar. Late April is French elections. So you think market will be strong til then, or weak til then with a sell off before bottoming??? Be careful guys
Yes, Nadeem was spot on for many years now and called the market bottom in 2009 and has been bullish all the way until a few months ago.
This appears a good point to go long JNUG.
Goild, trying for some quick lunch money?
I think Gary is correct with TPTB using the PPT to step in early. They have continued to squash any reasonable fundermenals since 2009.
I’m tired of losing money on that so shorted UVXY this morning at the low. I unfortunately placed my cheeky order night too high to get filled.
So far working out as planned, but ready to go long if now lows are seen.
Don,
Actually I already did my HW and pocketed about $2K.
Good trading to all.
My call for JNUG long at $6.90 was wrong.
Though as soon as SM flips I think JNUG is a buy for a day trade.
How did you manage that?
Don,
Is it a question for goild? and about the $2K?
Yes,
Don,
I just counted that I have like 30 round trip trades on JNUG today.
Gold is up today, SM down, so I thought a good day for JNUG and I bought on the dips at extreme candle lows.
I was about $1k red on the long red candle at about 10:20 AM. But then I noticed JNUG was reluctant to keep going down, so I had like 17K shares and that made the gross of the money when it went up.
It looks like JNUG now is going up. I have now 6K shares, 2K which I am taking OVN, and 4K which will sell as when I get some more money for lunch :).
Funny how the S&P overnight trade is almost always reversed the following morning, just like today. The futures have been rising all day. Someone likes screwing over the overnight traders.
Added to SPY May calls this morning. Holding for 2400 or higher. Miners I think will fall down a good amount eventually. Its not a coincidence that gold is at 1260 and GDXJ cannot even retest FOMC highs. Its surely a sign of weakness much like February and once SPY recovers I think these miners will drop hard. Gary says breaking Dec lows, that seems steep I would say GDX could get to 20
It seems that gold will come back to the early morning highs, and so JNUG.
So JNUG long is a trade to consider for the rest of the day.
Goild: 30 roundtrip JNUG trades already today?? I didn’t think you had become such a prolific day trader. You brokerage firm must love you. You are aware that only a small minority of day traders are successful and that by year end, most lose? Then there is the nightmare of reporting every single trade to the taxman. Anyway, good luck with that, maybe you will be one of the few that succeed.
A little perspective:
http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2017/February/17-02-GGF-Video11.php?inf_contact_key=5ec03766ce43521be3aa92bbde565a88d63b313b1e2b75a0819890d9b6f9776d
JJ: I noticed the same phenomena. Overnight action, especially when extreme, has become a contrary indicator for the next morning and sometimes for the entire day. I am counting on the S&P reversing back down by the end of the day but isn’t a sure thing.
Don,
Thanks.
We will see how I do by the end of the year.
That will really tell if I am in the right path.
Yes, they probably like me as I book lots of trades.
Though, the rats steal a lot from me with the slippage. The commission is OK, the slippage cost is very high.
It appears that SM may have at least a dip.
Though, I would not discount and think that it will come back to early day lows.
Euro topped out today at 1.0949 today so expect gold to begin to fall back as it declines and US dollar rises. I see good set ups on the inverse metals and miners trades as imminent. Maybe this is the end of the market correction after all. TLT is on a sell as long bonds also peaked. The Nikkei bottomed on a perfect pivot and Yen/$ will also sell off tomorrow. So its back up we go in US stock markets. No big complications here after a review. Looks like an easy read to me.
I would like to see the SM take out the day’s lows but the biotechs are quite strong so it may not happen.
Robert,
I think the miners are going up.
The charts for XAU and CDNX are bullish.
No they don’t.
XAU is bearish as hell. I wouldn’t touch miners now except very selectively. But as a group they are going down for the next few weeks. Look at DGLD too as its also on a sell so this is both metals and miners we are discussing. The good times have ended once again and the cycle points to declines dead ahead.
There gonna drop by next week or so Goild. You cannot ignore the divergence now between gold and miners. Tell me, why will miners all of a sudden just shoot up strong? It had more than a week to do so ever since gold was at 1220. Gold now hit as high as 1260 today and where is GDX? Its still barely above FOMC day
Just bought some more platinum. If I am wrong on this one, it’s going cost me plenty.
Robert, Ped,
OK, I will rethink my 2K shares position OVN on JNUG and get back to you.
*** BE CAREFUL ***
I am no great fan of Pedestrian, bit these few lines is a great read!
“At this point all signs still point to lower prices in the ongoing bear market in all precious metals. The threshold gold must now surpass to break the trend line resistance is 1300 dollar gold and each month that minimum level drops a little lower. I had already warned months ago that if gold could not exceed 1300 by the end of March it would not happen and the bear would persist.”
Once again we will hit our golden head into the downsloaping bear trendline, that predicted the turnaround last summer. We will not break it until we enter the fall, and even if we break it the Bear is not over.
No stupid mistakes with JNUG and such until midsummer low or a little bit later even.
In my humble opinion 🙂
Don,
I joined with 500 shares of PLAT.
We shall see.
What is PLAT? I can’t find that symbol and I would like to buy in too. Where is PLAT traded Goild ? I found PPLT but it is 93 bucks a share and 500 shares of that would set a guy back 46 grand so I don’t think that’s what you bought.
Bigdaddy,
Is a short used by Don meaning Platinum.
I buy PPLT. I think it is the only ETF for Platinum but I could be wrong. Anyone know of another (other than the futures market)?
Ok Robert, Ped,
Things considered:
In my mind gold has virtually already broken resistance, and it will continue up, taking the miners up.
I see JNUG as cheap and by Friday I may have a good profit on the 2K shares.
May be this is the time to load more JNUG shares. But I will take the middle path, listen to you guys, and just keep the 2K JNUG shares. Thanks.
I am tired, and so I will quit here. Otherwise I may lose today’s profit.
Good trading to all.
Gary, do you think Telecom or Info Tech or Financials will outperform the S&P on this next move up? Thanks.
I think the NDX is likely to outperform the SPX by a bit. Not huge though.
Looks that way. tqqq outdoing upro.
Thanks
Robert, Ped,
Further acknowledgement of your take and thought that today Monday Gold may have seen the high for the week. So got rid of the 2K JNUG shares.
Goild, I am just giving my views, I have been wrong many times but I just don’t see the neccesity to try and trade miners now. I mean gold is up 40 bucks and GDX/GDXJ has not given any meaningful gains. The risk to reward is not worth it IMO. Gold would have to go up another 40 bucks to see anything outstanding. SPY is down and has more profit potential, so I agree with Gary to wait on miners for a better bargain price. Plus, if he is right that gold and miners have yet to drop into an ICL, then JNUG could lose 50% or more from here.
Robert,
Yes, being patient is key.
I am afraid that JNUG is so cheap that it will easily get to $8-$9 in a jiffy.
It all depends on Gold going further.
Further fall of SM will take gold up.
I like to acknowledge other’s opinions. Had I consulted with you guys when I had 69K shares of JNUG near the recent bottom, probably I would have received sound advice and made a good money, rather than my hasty/fearful sell of them for a good loss.
I lost on miners too, they have been too difficult lately. Im trying SPY now and plan to hold until at least the all time high. Im not sure if it will go too far above that level.
Alot of other cycle and elliot wave analysts are saying a marginal new high and then back down to today’s lows. But now Gary is saying a much higher high like 2450 up. So im not sure how far SPY will go but I would say 2400 is a good bet from here.
Maybe miners will go up a little more like you said but I think the odds are that when everyone sees that SPY has turned bullish again, they will vacate miners and gold.
Gary — good review again. Was this morning’s steep selloff enough for you to add to your partial stock positions? I added some this am.
The reality is that SM is below the daily averages which is ominous.
There is no support till SPY about 226.
Daddy, don’t you see the SM is falling?
I’ll point out again that bottoms never look like bottoms in real time.
I’m pretty much the only person who ever catches these turns.
The technical traders are always caught up in their chart patterns and they never see the turn coming until many weeks later.
Of course by that time they have missed the move.
I think today would be a good time to sell gold and silver, because of the futures expiration tomorrow and options expiration that ends Thursday, and of course all the talking FEDs this week. 🌑 📉
Yup. SPY is having a hammer day. It looks like high chance that today was the bottom, if not today then defintely sometime this week. Gold will selloff pretty soon as a result
SLEP,
Thanks for pointing it out.
It’s too late in the intermediate cycle to keep pressing the metals trades. Plus the miners are clearly being suppressed. You’re just giving the banksters your money.
Trade something that is being manipulated higher, like the stock market.
I think it looks like we have a T1 scenario unless SM tanks tomorrow. Nimble trading required off of a final DCL before ICL.
Tech heavies leading. Financials still struggling. gush waking up after 50% + hair cut? xle/oih still in DT, though.