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Remember this?
Nope, refresh my memory. Who told you?
I was MIA for about ten days there. Are you talking about Avi? Just curious.
I don’t remember who it was. Someone posted those charts a couple of weeks ago as proof that the trends would continue. My cycles & sentiment levels were telling me otherwise.
OK. I missed it too. But good call if you got it right, Gary.
Gary. Does this mean the counter trend move in stocks is off the table?
I am starting to question whether we get a deeper correction after the FOMC meeting. This is starting to look like a new intermediate cycle. The Nasdaq, Russell, Cac, & Dax have broken out to new highs. The Hang Seng and most other markets are within spitting distance of breakouts.
I’d say by the time the FOMC comes around next week the rest of the markets will probably follow.
Hey Gary, how do you think this situation would impact the miners, if at all? If people are piling into stocks, it would make sense that the gold stocks would suffer and the miners would go down even faster than what you predicted.
Gold and stocks are trading inversely to each other right now. So if stocks continue up I would think metals would mostly drift lower (with occasional bounces along the way).
Given the recent relationship between gold and stocks do you anticipate a decoupling of that relationship; or would this suggest a deeper or earlier ICL in gold than we’ve been anticipating; or simply further confirmation of our current expectations.
lol – you answered my question before I got it posted, you’re good.
Are you still looking for an intermediate cycle low in stocks
You mentioned last week some time in May?
I agree. Stocks look ready to launch.
So could this be the euphoria stage in the stock market, stocks go to new highs everybody jumps in and then bubble pops?
It takes about a year to a year and a half to complete a bubble so we still have lots of time yet.
We don’t even have anything that looks parabolic yet. The SPX is only 7% above the 200 DMA and the Nasdaq 10%. At a bubble top the Nasdaq could be 50-60% above the 200 DMA.
So IWM won’t be filling the gaps anytime soon?
I am going to remain cautious and see if this is not a false breakout in stocks. A sudden reversal could happen tomorrow or next week on FOMC. If things take off after those two outcomes, it could be off to the races. All it is going to take is for some big money to say enough, and pull the rug. First man out. Retail always knows last.
Blue Horseshoe loves Bitcoin. Something seems amiss.
The dollar looks very iffy suddenly.
Gary, if things should stumble, what are the ramifications of those gap ups? What do island tops mean?
Dollar oversold on the daily, Heres the chart….
I expect dollar to climb from here gold to fall and sm’s to continue rising.
https://invst.ly/3u3ix
SM bouncing back as per normal, looks like the initial news spike is over….
I doubt we will have much downside risk until after the FOMC meeting.
But what about the GDP number tomorrow? Could that be a concern?
The GDP number is backwards looking. The market is looking ahead. If Trump even manages to get a watered down version of his tax cuts through, GDP is going to jump.
Cool, thanks for the guidance Gary.
Gary can you lay off the Energy sector please, Your entries are dropping the sector, when you stopped out, it bounced.
Energy has been a tough one. It just keeps whipsawing our stops.
9 days straight line down for silver.
It’s starting an intermediate decline. Tighten your belts, This still has at least one more daily cycle to go before it’s over.
I’ll bet a burrito the banks succeed in breaking the December lows in the miners.
Gary I think GDX is near daly cycle low. We should get a dead cat bounce soon to fill some overhead gaps
Probably on or after the FOMC meeting and the March low will need to be broken first. The banksters will want to cover their shorts into a panic sell off. They can accomplish that by running everyone’s stops below the March low.
As much as it hurts to say it, it looks like you are right.
I will collect on that Burrito now thanks since I was pretty vocal all of January that the final bottom in miners would be a complete retrace back to the bottom. Not that I believe that anymore. I just want a free burrito!! You can send it postage paid to “Some guy in New York on any old street”. Put it in a paper bag so it doesn’t go moldy.
I will be waiting.
BITCOIN.
We had 14 days straight down in silver back in November.
Gary has made goods call on the gold miners and stock market and bad calls on energy and the dollar. Being right half the time is pretty good for an analyst.
I want to short the market but Gary is scaring me with his calls for the market to bubble up. If he is right, the bears will get killed.
The sector to short is metals. They are in an intermediate decline.
Probably best to wait for the bounce out of the DCL and then try to short as close to the top of the cycle as possible.
Never in a million years would I ever trade currencies.
I’m not getting any love from energy though. The sector is whipsawing and it just keeps hitting our stops. Eventually we’ll catch a trend and produce a nice gain but for now nothing but frustration.
Gary, you’ve said your definition of a bull market is one where you have higher highs and higher lows than the previous year. If the banks break the December low in the miners, we can’t, by your definition be in a bull market?
Gold is making higher highs and higher lows. It doesn’t matter if the banks manipulate a lower low in the miners.
Miners are just in massive whipsaw. Up and down. Bears and bulls getting killed daily. If this reverses again like yesterday something is up.
I just bought some silver this morning. I am not afraid of getting back into the metals. As Gary once opined on a few occasions, in a bull market all timing mistakes are corrected. He’s right. Either we believe the PMs are in bull markets and accumulate during correction or they are not and we short them.
My thoughts Don.
Your conviction is not strong if you call for $5000 gold and $500 JNUG and then you short the sector. You are playing on the emotional nature of people for other purposes, some known, and probably some unknown.
Complete nonsense.
All markets have intermediate corrections. That’s all that’s happening.
Short every miner the day before earnings, they all drop a guaranteed 9-10% the day after. Money in the bank for you day traders.
Gary has said about a dozen times that he never shorts the markets. I am not sure if he meant all markets or just the stock market. During gold’s crash of 2012-2015, I don’t recall him shorting gold or the miners.
Don,
I think you can probably time your entries a little better.
I doubt the DCL will come before the FOMC meeting.
The final ICL will be in late May or June. You will know it’s time to buy because everyone will be calling for sub 1000 again. No one will be bullish except me.
That’s the time to buy.
What silver did you buy? Futures or ETF? (don) Aren’t you trying to catch a falling knife?
Physical.
BD: I bought a SVR (Canadian silver ETF) and smaller stake in HZU, a Canadian double leveraged play on silver. I have kept all my ZJG (which hasn’t fallen much) and will add to it if there is another sell off in the miners. This isn’t the time to get too crazy. Like I said, are we in a metals bulls market or not? A reversal could come at any time if we are in a metals bull market.
We are in a bull market, but gold is also caught in a volatile basing pattern. If the miners were to retest the 2016 lows would you be able to hang on?
Doesn’t seem likely, but who knows how far the banksters can drive this sector down.
CONTRARIAN indicator, Don? Everyone is short.
I’m not short at the moment. The metals are too stretched below the 10 day moving average. Wait for some kind of bounce to close at least some of that gap and give all the trapped bulls some hope. Then sell short on a tag of the 10.
GDX 10ma? That’s at $23.35-ish, 10% bounce would make a lot of new bull calls.
The 10 will decline every day. The same thing can be accomplished if price goes sideways to allow the 10 to catch up.
Thanks, Gary.
There is going to be a bounce in gold and miners. I think it is imminent however it may be weak. There is the possibility we could finally get a breakout of that 6 year channel so keep your eyes peeled. It cannot be ruled out now that gold and silver have fallen so many days in a row and the bounce that comes might just put us over the top.
GLD is sitting right on top of its 200 day MA and ready to pop. But will it be enough for a breakout?…..
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=gld
The metals are now caught in their summer ICL. Gold hasn’t even really broken down yet. I doubt the DCL will occur until the FOMC meeting, and I think there’s a good chance GLD fills the gap between 116-177 before the DCL is complete.
But yes the sector is due for some kind of short term bounce before the final move down into the DCL. If not then the next 5 days are just going to be ugly and we go straight to the DCL without any bounce.
That’s how the March DCL played out.
The miners are already ugly. Uglier, is really scary. Many are more oversold now than at any time since 2015.
Another week or more straight down will be unbearable. Each down draft has pushed them lower and lower from last year. I am still old Turkey on the vast majority of my holdings. It is not looking good and we might not get a break up here like PED is showing as possible
The down side is going to confirm years worth of pain still ahead. If GOLD sinks below $1240, then we head back into the 1150 range and the miners will probably be worse off than 2015. It may even be bad enough that miners actually start closing?
Gary honestly I doubt the miners will just keep falling straight down like that. GDX will move sideways to slightly down and maybe a slight bounce. Downside is not that much from here in GDX and even if it breaks the March lows it will only be slightly due to the fact that miners normally bottom before gold
Silver is saying the opposite today. Broke the uptrend line and now looks poised to drop back into the $16 level. On the flip side, the gold/silver ratio has broken out and is heading straight up. See my chart the other day.
The miners weekly and monthly charts look terrible and Gary may very well be correct about the miners taking out the Dec lows. The metals don’t look nearly as bad and i can’t see them taking out the Dec. lows but that is possible. All it would take is for the banks to dump a billion in futures and we know they are quite capable of doing just that. I just don’t think that is a high probability.
Gary what you think about energy that dropped ? Did you stop out . I believe you bought
Yep, stopped out again for a small loss.
We’ll try again when we get the next setup.
Falling crude is a bit of a surprise. World demand is rising and Opec have made some cuts so I can’t see crude falling much more.
I picked up some SLV for some short term trading. I think the bounce has started.
There are some good buys in the junior/senior mining space if one has some dry powder. I don’t think there is too much downside left. Time to nibble here and there.
Throw out some names you like Kruzoe. I have been thinking its nearing the time to start building a list of companies since the low season is here now and that means that the bargains will soon start to appear.
USDJPY dropped $.50 already and metals barely flinched.
Not much chatter here today. I wonder if Goild has made a pile of cash yet like he usually does?
There are three things that one can be sure of : Death, taxes and Goild making his lunch money!
Pedestrian, what is your opinion on the stock market? Do you think it’s going much higher as Gary believes it will?
The honest truth JJharmen is that I just don’t know. I have put forward my theory of what may take place though but as I mentioned the idea is still untested. In essence I think we will have an overshoot (left translated highs) on all the major indices charts I have been talking about and that in turn will draw in a lot of money that has been sidelined until now.
If a correction does come it should not be far off. Perhaps around the time of the next FOMC.
This is purely speculative thinking though and really, its anyone’s guess what happens next. Should markets prove themselves up to the task and just plow through all the resistance levels on those indices then I guess I am going to join the crowd and become one of the bulls.
The indexes I refer to are the NIKKEI, DAX, STOXX50, MSCI World Index and the Wilshire5000. All of those except the Nikkei have reached or exceeded their primary resistance levels at this time. I am giving this idea the benefit of the doubt though and will wait until the end of next week before crying uncle and admitting it is a failed concept.
Amazon up another 1.3% today. It has gained 22% YTD and 51% in the past year. It’s the gift that keeps on giving to it’s shareholders.