177 thoughts on “THE DOLLAR RALLY MAY LAST A COUPLE OF MONTHS”

  1. Christian

    The Dollar could rally for one month, roll over and deliver one more low. Impossible you say?? Well, not according to what I’ve seen thus far…

    Cycles are now morphing into Super Cycles!! Expect the unexpected.

    Ps: Walter B. is turning in his grave as we speak 🙂

  2. TraderPete

    I tend to agree with Gary at this point in time. I Think gold could bottom mid to late August before the seasonality takes over and propels gold to new highs. So, unfortunately we have a little bit longer to wait before we can go long gold. However, we could always make money on the short side as gold declines into this local minimum. But, I don’t think Gary would recommend shorting gold. He generally doesn’t like to go short.

  4. zkotpen

    Prudent commentary — thanks Gary!

    One suggestion: We’ve got the correlation coefficient on stockcharts, tradingview, and perhaps other charting services. Why not take that quaLitative commentary on correlations and back it up with the available quaNtitative analysis? Especially since it’s so convenient to do it??

    Here’s daily gold, with correlation coefficients of USD, EURUSD, and USDJPY. I normally look at this chart with silver, EURUSD, and USDJPY; and I have a similar chart for GDX and its correlation to — surprise surprise — gold and AUDUSD.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p95916437988

    Give it a try!

    You may (I may!) also want to look at Oil & track the correlation with USDCAD, for instance.

  5. zkotpen

    Christian,

    Like your charts — you & I have been on the same page since gold began this most recent daily cycle — we both have been looking at gold moving up to 1270s or 1280 area for at least a week or two.

    For the sake of nomenclature and science in general, cycles are still cycles. If you’ve got the tracking tools properly calibrated, you can accommodate a longer than average cycle length — with accuracy.

  6. zkotpen

    And just in case anybody hasn’t figured it out, I’ve stopped using the Elliott term “supercycle”, because it’s ambiguous and/or lacks inherent meaning — clearly, since different people are not using that term in the same sense as Elliott & his followers.

    Some multiples of the daily cycle include Intermediate, Yearly, Multiyear, and so on. I know Elliott’s followers have some or other multiple cycle labeled as “Supercycle”, and another one — Multiyear, I believe — labeled as just “Cycle”.

    Uff — too confusing, too ambiguous, and therefore not suitable for science!

    1. zkotpen

      I’ve also tossed out Elliott’s terms for divisions of the daily cycle…

      Daily cycle = Minor wave? What the heck does that mean? No way!

      Minute? Minuet? Not on my chart!

      Subminuet? More like history!

      Back to the multiples — grand super cycle??? Chau, baby!

      A dieu and good riddance to meaningless, anachronistic non-naming “names” of cycles!

  7. Ed

    USD is going down hard.
    Several reasons why USD going down hard.
    1. Whether Yellen actually raise another .25BPS or not that rate hike is already priced in current USD strength.
    2. Current USD strength is coming from Trump’s jawboning about economic stimulus from his campaign promises ie., tax cuts deregulation, and none of those programs are moving forward anytime soon. Trump economic plans already priced in USD strength.
    3. Euro is doing comparatively well with French Globalist in charge and still prevailing popularity of Merkel. ECB and BOJ are starting to tighten their monetary polices. Unlike FED’s playing with words like “soon” “data dependent” ECB BOJ PBOC do not have same luxury of FED which has a very attractive designated scapegoat named Trump.
    4. From here US Dollar can only fall…. Don’t listen to people who count days in cycles. Cycles change as news change sentiments. Follow the news, think, Gage sentiments and have convictions on your trade and get rid of prides, Get the hell out if you think you made an error.

    Gold is doing well considering how miners doing. But that is because miners are a longer term investments while gold prices fluctuate daily, very sensitive to daily news. Miners are not as sensitive as gold. Soon or later miners will catch up or catch down gold prices but they do not follow each other daily basis.
    My opinion is that miner investors are burnt out. Demoralized not able to read miners prices based on gold price. They just don’t give shit anymore about anything until major news or major trend has set in. Then, miners will catch up or catch down gold price in double time.

    Gold price is going up because I see
    1. US Dollar is going down hard all the way to 92 and 80s after that.
    2. US Bonds can’t compete with gold because their yields will keep going down.
    3. US political environments in near future do not appear to be positive to US Dollar.

    All in all, I think we just witnessed the last US Dollar top for our lifetime.
    Good Luck to All. It’s your money. Don’t let others talk you into doing silly things.

    1. Dday

      I don’t think many disagree long term weaker dollar stronger gold. The mid/short charts say the opposite, dollar most oversold since 2015, gold currently overboughtshort/mid term, so weakness as Gary said potentially $1170. But sure agreed with your longer term sentiment.

  8. zkotpen

    Ed,

    How about some quantitative analysis to back up all your talk, mate? 😉

    Otherwise, it’s just more social blah blah blah-ther.

  9. zkotpen

    Christian,

    Remember our previous discussion on trend lines?

    I don’t use them that much, but I did see a post on drawing trend lines according to Magee’s classic book on technical analysis… which I also don’t use much 😉

    Still, if you want an example, here it is (if not, kindly disregard):

    The Magee bear market trend line can be drawn on gold’s weekly chart. This trend line is drawn from the all time high for Gold on the 6th of September, 2011, to the first major swing high within the following bear market on the 5th of October, 2012. This line should provide strong resistance.

    Cheers!

  11. Alexandru Popovici

    NATGAS in confirmed IC decline – failed DC – and, bonus, a close below 200dma to corroborate the resumption of the YC decline.
    with NG on week 14 of its IC, we still have a minimum 2 weeks, maximum 12 and a median extra 4 weeks before the ICL is set –> that ICL will also be the very YCL!

    XLE itself is also on day 18 in a failed DC topping on day 7 –> still many days for it to find its DCL and after that another DC of which DCL will also be …the very YCL of energy stocks.

    With such Energy Complex still in its dolldrums, THE BOUNCE IN RISK-ON ASSETS I CALLED LAST EVENING SHOULD BE VERY VERY LIMITED –> UNTIL TUESDAY MAXIMUM.

    1. bluelagoon

      Alex – it looks to me like NG and Oil are bouncing right now – what do you think? I agree longer term it looks like they are heading down but seeing a bounce on the shorter term horizon.

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        correct!
        mind that their 10dmas are pretty high vs price, so that minor trends have a pretty large room to fool arround with bears and shake out the weakest of them as well as with moth-like bulls who see them as resumption of the bullish long-term trends –> not yet there though.

        1. bluelagoon

          Thanks for your reply Alex. Very well put. Do you only study futures charts or do you also study other tickers/ETF’s? I am seeing UGAZ ready for a bounce – potentially to fill some of the gaps from recent days – so at least to the 5DMA – not sure if it’ll hit 10DMA.

  12. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, with such setups backed by bearis COT reports, I really do not understand why you give so much weight to that sentimentrading.com tool in your calls!

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        gary, look at natgas’ COT –> it has a huge net short position of commercials both in absolute terms and relative to OI on a historical basis.
        It is larger than before the 3YCL in the winter of 2016 !

        Crude’s COT is not as gargatuous but it is definately not bullish.

        1. Gary Post author

          Nat gas yes. I don’t trade nat gas though so I don’t track it. Oil reached the same level that triggered the last two ICL’s so I’d say that one is rather bullish. It’s probably unrealistic to expect the oil COT to reach the same levels that were achieved at the 3 YCL.

          Until proven otherwise I view the recent dip as a half cycle low. A sell the news event from excessively short term bullish sentiment levels. Oil needed to pullback anyway and the OPEC meeting was the perfect excuse to do so and lower the sentiment levels.

  13. zkotpen

    Gold is highly correlated to both the JPY and silver almost all of the time, at least so far this year. I take a look at that correlation once per day as in the link below — similar to the link I posted above, but I just changed it back to my usual way of looking at the correlations for gold: to silver, to EURUSD, and to USDJPY.

    As far as I can tell, that’s all I need to know of relevance in terms of gold:silver and gold:yen ratios: Are they correlated, and if so, how strong is the correlation? If not, is the breakdown in correlation temporary, or does it seem to be lasting?

    The silver correlation broke down for a couple of weeks in late April to early May; USDJPY negative correlation broke down in late March. Otherwise, both have held up all of 2017 so far.

    What more do we need to know? If there’s an answer to that question, I will certainly take a hard look at it. Otherwise, I just boil it down to the most simple consideration and take it from there.

    In the present case, for me at least, that helps me take on two significant questions:

    1. Is there a high probability, reliable set up in ForEx, trading USDJPY?

    and

    2. Does silver/SLV represent a better, more reliable trade opportunity than GDX and/or gold/GLD, in terms of reward:risk?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p27580374779

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s probably still too early in the daily cycle to expect a significant correction just yet. More likely we just churn sideways into the FOMC meeting, pop right after and then correct.

      Intermediate sentiment on stocks is dead neutral. And that’s not typically the level from where intermediate rallies top and corrections start.

  15. Bigdaddy

    I sold my SRTY at the close yesterday and lost few ticks. Just watching today after yesterday’s big disappointment. The downside momentum evaporated. Now we have a great jobs report so why wouldn’t the market go up more yet?

    1. Gary Post author

      You are almost guaranteed to lose money trying to short this early in a daily cycle. We’re only on day 9. The time too short is when we get to day 30. And even that is iffy as the Plunge Protection Team can step in at any time and stop a correction.

      1. Christian

        Gary — You are wasting your time with this one.. He doesn’t listen one bit. His brain is fried from all the fumes pumping out of those OIL machines on his land, Lol! God bless his little heart.

  16. Gary Post author

    We have a swing forming in XLE. One could go long with the stop underneath yesterday’s low.

    1. ras

      First bounce after a good thrashing. Hard to get excited . May or may not hold, who knows? Let us see a bounce which can turn around ma 20. Until then it is just slope of hope.

      1. Christian

        Ras — You still don’t understand the benefits of measuring your risk/reward ratio.

  17. Don

    The big five are all down today and the S&P did not make a new high this morning. I and not saying that means anything but the market just got a good reason to go up with the glowing jobs report and it’s not reacting with a lot of enthusiasm.

      1. Robert

        Gary something is wrong. Gold down big today and miners going up big time. Something not right I dont think any big drop is coming again in miners

        1. Gary Post author

          LOL you crack me up. GDX is up .26%.

          It’s just bouncing off support at 22.50. It may do this for another week yet, but by the end of June miners are going to be many percentage points lower than they are now and you will be telling me there’s no way they can ever go up.

          We still don’t have confirmation that the dollar has completed it’s ICL. But once it is complete and starts to rally it should rally at least a couple of months. That’s when you have to worry about gold going down. Right now the dollar is churning trying to decide if it has made a final bottom or not. So the metals don’t have a driver yet to push them down.

          1. Robert

            I hope you are right. This has been the most difficult cycle I have ever seen price action wise

          2. Gary Post author

            It’s still early in gold’s daily cycle. That’s why we are getting this frustrating back and forth action. Once it gets later in the cycle then we will see some serious selling pressure emerge.

          4. dboz

            Robert, there are no miners anywhere even close to where I sold them two weeks ago. All are down, many down 10-15% already. Fractional percentages up today. I would not be surprised to see the selling pick up this afternoon. Many are at 52 week lows already, so any spot demise will send them cascading. I doubt many are going to hang on. The sector is totally flustered. There has been almost no reward unless you timed the bottoms perfectly and got the tops like Gary.

          5. Robert

            DBOZ and everyone the reason I am frustrated is because miners have not been going up for weeks now when gold went up alot. Now today is the first in awhile gold went down a good amount and now the miners are switching roles and did not sell off much with gold. This is why im frustrated but im just going to wait it out maybe my emotions getting better of me

          6. rogersv

            This back and forth movements gives us more short opportunities on spikes. We never lose the train on the path to the ICL.

        2. Christian

          Robert — What did I say yesterday..? For the love of God the almighty king of the clouds STOP being such nuisance 🙂 Why aren’t you listening?!

          2. cazabrujas

            Robert, you need to have more grit if you want to be a trader. control your emotions or you are going to end up bankrupt.

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    Risk-on sentiment to endure through Tuesday until gold & treasuries find their DCLs and NYSE Composite rises to new high, above MAR1.
    Crude oil to find a cap in its 10dma.

  20. Alexandru Popovici

    GARY, NG has acted as a leading asset for the energy complex. XLE now out of a HCL only. You should heed more, i think, to the resistance crude has at its 10dma.

    Transports look like they want to establish a new IC (ICL at 200dma on MAY18) –> this is menacing, it means YCL in Transports to be found at the next ICL – some many weeks ahead (we are on week 2 only!) while transports tend to bottom earlier than SPX!
    This means that YCL of NYSE and SPX to come in 15 to 18 weeks from now –> enough time to allow NYSE to rise to new high and fall.

  21. Christian

    Folks, I remember telling Zkotpen the other day that trading doesn’t have to be hard, and some of you are making this more complicated than it needs to be. Trading.. whether short or long term is all about probabilities and measuring risk vs reward.

    Today’s price action in ERX is a perfect example. Below, you’ll find (for the purpose of education) an illustration of how you should be studying the chart right now as we speak — in real time, not in hindsight.

    The current set up favours more upside for energy and the probability of a good trade is currently on our side. Now is the time to dip your toe in the water.

    BUY: $25.50
    STOP LOSS: $25 (in case ERX fails to deliver)

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/buCgHft2/

    2. ras

      Nice chart. 60 minute time frame: erx in bearish configuration. ery in bullish configuration. Ditto uwt/dwt pair. Not interested in convincing anybody. I follow what works for me and encourage everyone to do the same. My system automatically integrates risk/reward, cycles, sentiment, etc. Thanks for the input.

  22. Alexandru Popovici

    the deadcat bounce in risk-on assets (energy too obviously) will not only allow gold & Ts to find their DCLs but also CRB Index to rise in a new daily cycle to fail quickly.
    good luck to those w/ ears to hear.
    checking out

    1. jacob2

      Yep, agree don’t see oil, gold, industrial metals going anywhere either anywhere soon with a dollar rebound. Emerging markets should back off as well. Consolidation continues late summer buys for cyclicals.

  23. primetime

    For clarification of the record, Christian is the greatest. He is all knowing and is perfect. He is superior to all others, his opinion reigns supreme. There is only one way, the Christian way.

    He is too humble to say it, so I did for all the new bloggers on the site.

    BTW, how is the vacation with Gary going?

    2. Kruzoe

      Is this Christian in Dust? I bought 10K of Dust yesterday and making lunch money, lol.

  24. JJHarmen

    Forced to cover my UPRO short. There is no point in trying to short this crazy market until we see it roll over and that could be far higher than now. Win a few, lose a few.

  25. zkotpen

    Kruzoe,

    “I bought 10K of Dust yesterday and making lunch money, lol.”

    “Making” lunch money — what does that mean?

    Did you take profits?

    Last I checked, not a single lunch seller was accepting unrealized gains as payment for food. Or for anything else, for that matter.

    1. Kruzoe

      ZK: Just quoting our good friend Goild, the “lunch money” guy. I’m still in Dust with a stop loss – cannot lose on this one.

      1. zkotpen

        Kruzoe,

        Stop loss is prudent!

        Still, remember that Goild is king of taking profits as they become available — I’ve learned a lot from him. That guy sees a profit, he grabs it & doesn’t look back. That’s his bread and butter 🙂

  28. zkotpen

    Robert,

    Post whatever you feel like posting (w/o being rude, of course).

    You’ve got a point about the miners being in a confusing pattern decoupled from gold since early February.

    I am actually pulling up my Intermediate chart for GDX, which I don’t normally do during the trading day, to make that very assessment. Specifically, the move down from May 17 to May 24 looks a heck of a lot like the larger move down from Feb 8 to May 4, on a different degree/fractal.

    Ignore it at your peril — certainly don’t ignore it because some self-appointed autocrat badgers you to do so.

    Your instincts clearly tell you something is up, even if your reason doesn’t understand it. I used to ignore such intuition — much to my huge chagrin (and in areas having nothing to do with gaming financial markets).

    Don’t cave in — keep trying to figure it out!

    1. Robert

      Thanks for seeing my point of view. I hav no clue if Christian is long or short miners all he is doing is saying I must shut up without providing any reasoning as to what is going on with the gold market. I am of the view now that the banks are trying to confuse everyone now. Gold should still drop into its ICL from here

      1. dboz

        Robert, the whipsaw action is brutal. Up a few days, down a few days. Metal prices up, metal prices down. Taking money off everyone both directions. No one knows which way to go. No need to have FOMO, if we take off from here, PLENTY of time to catch the big wave up and ride it. If we go down from here, you will be glad you are on the sidelines.

        1. Robert

          Yes exactly. I will just wait it out it looks like another week or 2 weeks till this mess is sorted out.

          1. Christian

            Robert — Please don’t twist my words. You keep asking the same questions over and over and over again, and I’m asking you to stop freaking out! It’s a waste of time and energy. And I’m not intentionally trying to be rude; I’m just trying to get through to you.. just like I’m trying to get through to Bigdaddy, who keeps making the same mistake over and over again. You guys are quite the pair 🙂

            And btw.. all of my trades regarding DUST have been posted in real time (with a chart) on this blog for everyone to see and constructively criticize.

            So! For the last time.. I am SHORT MINERS since I called the exact top on May 17th. I can’t do any better than that.

          2. Robert

            Ok! Thanks for clearing that up then. One question for you when do you plan on selling your DUST, how long from now?

  29. zkotpen

    And since we’re on the topic of last week, one thing I do know is that taking profits as the market makes them available is extremely wise, prudent strategy.

    Believe me, if you follow some cowboy who should be leaving their spurs as far as possible from their trading desk, that cowboy will NEVER step up and reimburse your losses!

    TAKE PROFITS AS THE MARKET MAKES THEM AVAILABLE.

  30. zkotpen

    ras,

    I’m with you on energy stocks… using Christian’s chart (my mind is extracting the math from the pattern, without even pulling it up on my chart today! — if I were going to put money on the trade, one way or the other, I’d certainly pull it up on my own chart!!)

    And like your prudent approach.

    ~cheers~

    1. ras

      As the saying goes, lose your bias not your money. erx/ery, uwt/dwt, and other similar pairs are all the same to me, no preference to one over the other. Simply take whatever the market decides to give instead of wishing for something else. Right now, the tailwind seems to be back of ery and dwt. For how long, no idea.

      Weekly stochastics dipping below 20 is not an automatic buy signal. It can run below 20 for several weeks as price heads down relentlessly probing for a bottom. Cycles are not reliable. Sentiment works very well at major extremes, not so well in between. It is important that every player cleave to what delivers, opinions notwithstanding.

  31. zkotpen

    What have I learned today?

    1. Tough guys telling you to tough it out will NEVER reimburse your losses.

    2. Unrealized profits cannot be used to buy lunch — or anything else, for that matter.

    3. Profits realized as they become available CAN be used to buy lunch & other things.

    Ignore these lessons I’ve learned at your EXTREME peril!

    1. Christian

      Z — You keep talking but I don’t see you posting any REAL TIME trades. Let’s see what that scientific brain of yours can do. C’mon baby! Put your money where your mouth is 🙂

      1. zkotpen

        Christian,

        See my post below — 30 minutes after your post here.

        That’s the way things are shaping up, far as I can tell: Daily cycle could still be pointing up, within an intermediate triangle on the one hand, currently with an intraday triangle possibly moving sideways before the move up completes on the other.

        Believe me, I am trying to work my way up to Goild’s nimble fingers to get in on that small triangle action — I’m not quite there yet in experience level, but working on it.

        As for the math & science, just remember, what most humans roaming the Earth take for granted:

        It is Calculus, and the science and engineering that follows from it, that keeps the carnivorous wild cats & dogs as well as bears and others from seeking us out as their next meal. Calculus and science give us the luxury of doing what we’re doing right now (me: listening to Puerto Rican Salsa), as opposed to hunting and gathering and defending ourselves from the onslaughts of hungry predators.

    1. zkotpen

      LoL!

      Sideways, rangebound market leaves plenty of time for ZEN — even after a 90 minute catnap 😉

      Listening to Puerto Rican Salsa to keep spirits high — dancing in my chair

      (I am a terrible dancer, btw, just lovin’ the salsa all the same)

  34. zkotpen

    Here’s the thing, and much as I foresee a move down in metals and miners on the one hand, I’m still not entirely sure we’ve seen a daily cycle high in them yet on the other.

    What’s really getting to me is, I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom in USDJPY’s daily cycle decline. And as I’ve posted on here numerous times — with quantitative proof — USDJPY’s negative correlation with gold is danm near spot on this year!

    It looks like USDJPY has one more push up, to be followed by its move down into its DCL. And if that’s not enough, the current USDJPY rally has not broken out — it may be a triangle — or some other complex, consolidating pattern.

    Getting back to the metals, I’m simply not convinced we’ve seen the DCH yet. Maybe yes, but maybe no.

    Why not wait for a higher probability setup?
    Something like what ras is suggesting…

    … or do like Goild, and go in, grab some profits, and get the heck out.

    If I see a high probability setup on a short trade in miners, sure, I’m gonna jump on it. But I will certainly not get married to that trade — if it goes in my favor, I’ll grab what the market gives me & be grateful!

    If there’s more to the trade after that, I’ll look for a suitable re-entry.

    That’s the plan right now.

    1. ras

      Best post I have seen in a long time. Until gdx and gld are kicking in the same direction, it is difficult to get excited about pm complex, long or short. Besides daily candles are getting jammed up: indecisive price movement. There will be enough time to take an appropriate position once gld and gdx get into sync.

    2. Christian

      The high probability set-up in the Miners has already happened. The first one was on May 17th and the second one was on May 22/23rd. I even posted a chart highlighting why…

    1. zkotpen

      It is quite possible that GDX is undergoing 2 triangles at the same time:

      1. Triangle of Intermediate degree, which will break down — months in the future.

      2. Triangle of Intraday degree, which will break up, to an eventual daily cycle high in GDX, that would be wave C of the Intermediate triangle above.

      So, potential triangle both one half step above, and one half step below GDX’s daily cycle, at those intermediary degrees/fractals 😉

  38. JJHarmen

    I was looking at the monthly chart of the S&P today and was taken aback at how steep the climb has been since early 2016. How long will this go on?

  39. Christian

    Robert — I plan on selling my DUST position when Gold hits the next DCL or ICL, whichever it turns out to be. At which point, I’ll switch gears and go LONG MINERS — just like Gary 🙂

    This is unlikely at this point but.. if Miners decide to pull a fast one and break the current channel downtrend line, or close above the 10DMA with enough conviction, then I will exit my position and re-assess. Better safe than sorry when trading a triple leveraged fund.

    Here’s another detailed chart to give you perspective:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/jlyamMIf/

    1. Robert

      Now thats what I wanted to see a clear plan. Good chart. It looks like next week till that recognition day hopefully no longer.

    2. Christian

      Also — Notice how no one else on this blog gives ACTIONABLE INTEL. Just a lot of chatter and opinions that are somewhat useless in real time.

      Folks.. How many of you are willing to put yourself out there instead of hiding behind your HP monitor. If you have an incredible strategy that works.. I wanna see it and I want to learn it — in real time!

      No more quotes, or books to read, poems to recite, or useless opinions! Let’s see the good stuff 🙂

  40. Don

    JJ: You must be looking at a linear scale . Check it out on a logarithmic scale that plots the horizontal value widths in percentages rather than absolute values. Not so steep, right? Think of it this way, when the S&P was only at 200 points, years ago, a 50 point move was huge as it was a 25% move. Today, that same 50 point move is a mere 2%. A linear (arithmetic) gives the same horizontal grid width to that 50 point regardless of the index value and over long periods, the distortion produces very steep graphs.

    For the reason outlined, always use logarithmic graphs. Analysts that are trying to bolster their arguments on a long term view, will always use linear scales.

    1. JJHarmen

      Got that. Your right, switched to the logarithmic and looks much different, not so steep. Thanks for the info.

  41. desertsun999

    I just cannot buy into that type of dollar bounce Gary. I think there is a outside chance that this could be the high for the month in the dollar. If we retrace to 98.50 in the next couple of weeks that is as much downside as I can see. I will take a full position at that point.

  42. zkotpen

    Christian,

    To clarify my post of a couple of minutes ago:

    Yes, you clearly identified the top of GDX’s INTRADAY cycle.

    Now, whether that is also the DAILY cycle top still remains to be seen. There’s a very good chance the DCH is not yet in, just as there’s a very good chance the DCL in USDJPY is also not yet a done deal. I was waiting to get into a short position in miners, and play both sides of USDJPY — but it’s turning out that neither of these trades is turning out to be any sort of swing trade, rather, scalps of the variety that Goild trades — when I get to that level of nimble trading, sure, I’ll jump on them. I’m just not at that skill level yet. That guy strikes like lightning — he gets in, and he gets out. I’m still trying to get to that capability, of scalping smaller degree trades.

    As for swing trades, I’m waiting for a good one to present itself 😉

    2. Robert

      If miners are to make a new DCH they would have done it alrdy. Gold hit 1273 u would need 1300+ for chance of new highs in GDX. It’s just this whipsaw that’s making us unsure. Maybe tomorrow will be the day of true direction on the employment report

  44. JJHarmen

    The climb was actually much steeper in the 90s, according to the log chart. Interesting. maybe we have much higher to go then. Like I said earlier, no more shorting till we see a clear top and roll over.

  45. Bigdaddy

    Stock market is at all time highs, the oils stocks are up nicely and my one and only holding, an oil stock, is down on the day. I can’t believe this shit. I swear there must be someone hacking into my computer and taking the opposite side to my trades just to mess me up. maybe feeding me false data too. SOB!!! My monitor is on the verge of getting a shot gun blast.

  46. Don

    BD: i keep telling you find another ‘hobby’. You are not well suited to be playing the markets.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Piss off! You don’t know me and what I am “suited” for. I don’t ever give up on anything. I will eventually be a big winner.

  47. Kruzoe

    Well, I decided to sell my Dust for a quick one day profit of $14K. Still have a slew of junior/senior miners.

    1. bluelagoon

      Wow Kruzoe – from yesterday’s low to today’s high that was only a 6% return if you got the exact bottom and top. That’s a hefty 1 day trade – over $200K committed to make $14K but hey – if you could do it – all the power to you.

    2. victor

      sold my inverse 2x ng at 3.0 thinking to repurchase at 3.07…, listening Gary bought first portion 2x oil too.
      Bigdaddy, try to control your emotions, don’t jump in trade like naked into woman’s bed, observe and follow the trend to be safe. Wish you best…

  48. bluelagoon

    DGAZ is correcting down from it’s massive rally last few days – I’m targeting $21-22.

    1. Don

      UGAZ and DGAZ. have extreme decay issues so unless you are dead on with your timing, it’s almost impossible to win consistently playing those two. I know because I tried. I was right about where NG was going over the next few months probably 80% of the time and still didn’t make any serious money from UGAZ/DGAZ. Buy and hold is not an option.. If you really want to play NG, I advise you to go the futures route, as I have done. Good luck to you if you wish to give it a go

      1. bluelagoon

        I agree with you Don – would love to play futures instead but my account is not set up for it – I will do that eventually. It seems there’s way more advantages to futures vs these leveraged ETF’s – e.g. one doesn’t miss getting a price point bc the mkts are not open; no decay; you get the full advantage of the “move” vs. what the ETF translates it into, etc. Are there any disadvantages or risks you would note?

        BTW – yes – UGAZ and DGAZ are not hold them type of ETF’s – they bounce up and down like crazy so only good for those who can play that volatility.

  49. Don

    Despite all the gloom here about the ‘poor’ performance of the miners, GDX is up 4.2% from May 1st while Gold is up a mere 0.88%. Those who are making money on DUST must be really clever, really lucky, or really full of doo-doo.

    1. Kruzoe

      Let’s say really lucky. I did post this yesterday:
      Kruzoe
      May 31, 2017 at 11:22 am
      Also buying some Dust to-day.

      My net gain is 10K shares at 1.38 profit per for about $14K. The only reason I sold was because I will not be at my desk to-morrow.

  52. zkotpen

    Kruzoe,

    Bravo!
    $13.8k is nothing to scoff at
    (not sure why folks are scoffing!)

    And the doubters fail to realize that you did not put your entire amount traded at risk — you said you had a stop loss in place to limit risk. Only the amount risked in the event you are stopped out is used in the risk:reward calculation — NOT the entire amount paid to enter the position. Just playing around with my calculator, looks like you had the whole thing under very good supervision.

    Take profits as the market makes them available…

    So again, hats off Kruzoe!

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m pretty confident the daily cycle has topped. But…

      It’s still fairly early in the cycle so don’t expect any serious selling pressure yet.

  54. zkotpen

    Christian,

    Love your post & working on a reply.

    In the mean time, I’d like to ask you one question that I hope you will answer honestly:

    What are the chances of your being published in your lifetime?

    1 in 800?

    Substantially less?

    1. zkotpen

      Redbaron,

      Thanks for posting the NOK chart. Looks interesting on first glance & I’ve got this scheduled for weekend look with greater care.

      Also, not sure if it was you who posted the charts for SEDG & TAN, but I’ve saved them as well. The former looks good on first glance; the latter less so.

  56. zkotpen

    Robert,

    Check my post addressed to Christian, just below yours, time stamp 5:45pm

    I like your hunger — though it looks as though you’re lookin’ for love in all the wrong places — namely, in concepts: Your speculation about “big banks”; the employment report; some time schedule you’ve got in mind, but the market is unaware of and/or indifferent to.

    I was clueless in my rookie year, Aug, 2012 to Aug, 2013, and lost more money than I care to think about.

    But despite my ignorance, of one thing I was certain:

    Where to look for answers:

    Mathematics & Intuition

  58. zkotpen

    As a result of Robert’s posts, combined with my own internal nagging, I took a good look at the Intermediate chart for GDX during Thursday afternoon.

    Much to the chagrin of the impatient ones, I just do not see that intermediate chart for miners getting out of line any time soon. Though Gary’s and my approaches differ substantially, we’re looking at similar charts: Gary looks at the 10 week SMA; I look at the 50 day SMA for intermediate cycles. I believe we both use the 200 day SMA for yearly cycles.

    For the intermediate cycle, I just don’t see GDX getting out of line for now, meaning, I’m looking at intermediate volatility to squeeze. Yearly volatility is already squeezing quite a bit — pretty much all year, since that green candle on the first trading session of the year, Jan 3, began GDX on a track of getting & staying close to its 200 day SMA, without ever really straying too far. But from about the 2nd week of May, yearly volatility has really been tightening, portending a significant move is in the works.

    So while I’m with Gary on a move down in GDX, my current thinking is, one more push above the 200 day SMA will come first — not immediately — intermediate cycle will keep in line, daily cycle will eventually top on that push to the 200 day SMA — key word is eventually — maybe FOMC week — in the mean time, more grinding, more volatility squeezing, on as many degrees as possible, until all fractals are squeezing, from the wiggles all the way to multiyear cycles and probably one cycle degree both higher and lower, too 😉

    Here’s a poem to express just what I have in mind:

    Moslem Christian Buddhist Hindu Jew

    n Pagan n Daoist n Wicca Witch 2.

    Squeezing, squeezing, squeezing,
    ’til Robert has pulled out all of his hair
    and Bigdaddy has taken out his shotgun
    and blasted his terminal to bits
    and Yellen starts shoutin’

    And then down she goes!

  59. dboz

    Don’t give up your day job. Just say your point. It’s like reading Nostradumbass quatrains.

  60. zkotpen

    dboz,

    Actually, state YOUR point.

    What’s the relevance of XAUJPY and XAUXAG?

    I have listed the key correlations, in the simplest of terms. Why bother to complicate things with XAUJPY and XAUXAG charts? Do they have predictive value in some way?

    As for my point, I thought I made it abundantly clear:

    More squeezing, volatility decreasing, on all degrees of trend, until the move down commences, PERHAPS during FOMC week. Impatient ones will be miserable, as they expect some imminent move that does not appear to be in the cards just yet. Likewise for not being ready for two key reversals before the larger intermediate degree move. I also clarified directionality and relevant correlated markets.

    Still, I realize that while stuff makes sense to me, sometimes it comes out wrong or in a confusing way. I really thought I made the above clear. If not, the above paragraph should be pretty clear for all degrees of trend I monitor, pretty much my outlook thru the month of June.

    If, however, I am not getting right to the point, please let me know & I will try to be more explicit.

    Cheers ~ z

    1. Robert

      Lol Zkot I think thats it now for GDX. Im feeling more confident now based on this overnight price action of gold along with todays selloff in gold. Its time now and the gold cycle has topped. Miners have been waiting for gold to fall and now they got it so im expecting bigger moves to downside from GDX soon

      1. zkotpen

        Maybe so! As you’ve noticed, GDX is a tricky one.

        I’ll be the first to discard an incorrect forecast, as ras said — either stick to your views or stick to your profits — I’ll go for the latter!

        And if the currencies or silver make more sense to me than GDX, I’ll move right over to one of them.

        Forex has that special advantage for living on the other side of the world: It trades 24h. Of course, now that I’ve got a forex account, I realize there’s 2 sides to that coin as well — sometimes the market moves while you are eating lunch, or sleeping, or going for a walk or something… I don’t have a smart phone for constant monitoring! (Not sure if I want to constantly monitor — just want to get off the graveyard shift!)

      2. zkotpen

        I will say one thing about gold’s overnight weakness at 06:00 UTC:

        So far, the move down looks like the intraday cycle is nearing an end. Not saying it has ended, but that’s what I’m monitoring for at present: Any clue that the intraday move is either finishing up, or continuing further down. So far, one attribute is corrective intraday: Contracting volatility.

        But there’s 7.5 more hours of data that will pour out before NY opens. All we can do is monitor the data, and give it our best shot, I reckon 😉

        1. dboz

          There do appear to be bull and bear signals. Makes it possible to go higher and retest upside again. Could also head lower and test 1245.

  61. Alexandru Popovici

    GARY, mind that crude oil has retraced more than fib-61.8 in its DC already (62.6% to be precise) — sign of weakness, omening left-translation and further price undercutting, daily-cycle-failure.
    Do you still hold the assumption that May low was more than a mere DCL ?

      1. bluelagoon

        Alex – your track record remains strong – NG and oil and indeed on their way down after quite a topping process. Are you expecting any decent bounces where one can still get in on the short side? Usually it’s not a straightforward move down.

  62. Ed

    “As long as the music is playing we all stand up and dance”. As long as BOJ ECB print we all have to buy WWW. So when are we going to see NASDAQ 10,000 ? This shit can’t be real ? If Central banks start buying ETFs We can have S&P at 10,000 before the music stops. Zimbabwe ‘s Mugabe still in reign and we’ll, I guess all will turn out OK. USD index shot up from beginning of 2014 corresponding FED’ tapering. What happen to DXY now when EC B and B OJ start taper their QE?

  63. Gary Post author

    Gold is only about half way through its daily cycle. It’s probably too early to expect any serious selling pressure yet. Plus often there is a first leg down followed by a bounce and then a second leg. The bounce creates the cycle down trend line. It doesn’t always bounce though. The last two DCL’s just went straight down. However this should be a larger degree ICL so I think we will get a bounce either during this daily cycle, or as I alluded to in the video, there might be two cycles down for gold if the dollar rally were to run for a couple of months.

  64. Ed

    Gold is still ” it may” and ” it may not” ? Just post when you buy and sell,. may be a day after the trades? Then I will buy your subscription based on results.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t do the day trader nonsense. Usually the only one that profits from that is your broker. I’ve been holding a short position in miners basically since Apr. 17th. I’ll continue to hold it until I see something I can identify as an ICL. At the very least I think gold has to tag the lower triangle trend line around 1160-1180.

    2. desertsun999

      Ed, Based on your dollar comments we are looking at the same thing. The dollar has broken down on the long term charts and 92 seems like a reasonable target. The million dollar question is………….When is the 3yr cycle going to bottom? It seems Gary has reversed direction again with Wednesday’s video and thinks the cycle is going to bounce right on time which is about now. The problem with that is the $USD COT commercial long data does not support that argument. It suggests that the 3yr cycle might be late which is where your 92 target becomes a real possibility. As of the end of last month the dollar has broken below 3 different technical supports on the long term charts. The COT longs on the $CAD are at multi-decade record long positions. Those are just some items to add to your list. The 3yr cycle is going to involve a multi-month bounce which would fit right in with a head & shoulders right shoulder bounce at 92.50. If we bounce here then we could possibly be looking at an attempted double top in the dollar. Gary pointed out a number things in his video that help support his case along with his ICL criteria. I think the prudent thing to do if a person is sitting in a all cash position is to start averaging in here. I have hit two home runs in silver by getting out around 18.60 in April and then getting back in within pennies of the lows of May with a full position. I have taken half that off the table based on Gary’s ICL criteria. At some points in the market it is best to start taking a longer term focus and I think we are at one of those points. Its great to swing for the fences on every pitch but the guy that goes for the base hit or double is the guy that’s going to get paid.

      1. Gary Post author

        Listen to the video again. I now think the odds are pretty good the 3 YCL came a year early and the dollar is now putting in a left translated 3 year cycle and starting a bear market. We should get a bounce out of an ICL soon though as the euro cycle is getting really long in the tooth.

  65. WYSIWYGN

    still, metals do not look to have an intention to go down, yet, on the contrary, coiling up ?

    1. Gary Post author

      Like I said it’s still fairly early in the daily cycle. I wouldn’t expect any serious selling pressure for at least another week or so.

      The dollar is still churning trying to decide if it’s bottomed or not.

  66. bluelagoon

    Jobs report is out and Gold is up. It’s looking to me like gold likely won’t top until around the Full Moon (June 9th) which is within Gary’s timing band for gold to go down.

    ZKOT – since you are big into analysis – have a look at what gold does around the full moon……someone mentioned it and I looked and sure enough, around that date it seems gold either tops or bottoms – alternating from month to month…..at least it’s been so since the beginning of this year….I didn’t look further back.

    1. Gary Post author

      Like I said the dollar continues to churn trying to decide if it has bottomed or not. Barring a reversal into the close it looks like the daily cycle is going to continue to stretch.

  67. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, USX cycle is not stretched — it is on day 18, last DCL on May8.
    Now the dollar can bottom on any day but it is not stretched at all unless it moves beyond day 25.

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar is the mirror of the euro. The euro cycle is still moving up so the dollar cycle is still moving down. The euro is on day 37 and the dollar on day 47.

      1. Gary Post author

        We could get the bottom today if the undercut reversal holds into the close.

  69. Alexandru Popovici

    Bluelagoon, both NatGas and CRB index are in their respective timing bands to chart DCLs on any day (while crude to print a HCL).
    When exactly ? Who knows? I don’t.
    But indeed, with the DC of CRB index so much turned down, it may not bottom until an undercut. Still, I would not short the market here; I would wait for the advance in a new DC and go short on a swing high.

    1. bluelagoon

      Thanks Alex – I’ll look out for that and maybe go long if I see a swing low.

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        trading minor trends?!
        that’s a risky game. it definitely requires different trading parameters – not for me.

  70. zkotpen

    bluelagoon,

    Funny you should mention the full moon. That lady is in flux, just like the markets, and she’s never as predictable as this month one way, that month the opposite. She does her dance, plain and simple.

    To be honest, this is gonna be one bad-ass full moon — not like the lovely eclipse of February, for instance. Seems like April’s full moon was a monster, too. Saturn will oppose the Sun, so I will probably go into hiding for about 10 days!! After all, I’m Capricorn, born on a Saturday. Full moon as market opens next Friday… then more cosmic funky biz on the… 14th… yikes!

  71. Alexandru Popovici

    GARY, nope, I see the DCL of $EURUSD on May11 so that the pair is now on day 16 – ripe for a DC decline indeed, but not stretched.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      the decline of EURUSD to its DCL on May 11 post Macron’s election has got all features.
      It also retraced in that DC to fib-38 sharp!
      So why claiming EUR’s AND USX’ DCs are stretched ??!!! They have behaved quite, quite normally lately.

      1. Gary Post author

        The dip on May 11th was way to short to be a DCL in the euro. The was a HCL and the pivot will be used to construct the cycle trend line. A HCL in the euro can’t be a full DCL in the dollar.

  72. Ed

    BLS numbers are just that “Bull Lying Shits”. Their main purpose is to be used as FED’s policy tool. In other words, FOMC is chicken out. From here to FOMC date middle of June, we will hear a lot of jawboning trying to put the market in guessing game but in my opinion, rate hike cycle is done for good.
    Now, FOMC is done, powerless. More jawboning will only make them foolish and clueless which they are in reality.
    10,000 NASDAQ still alive and well as long as BOJ and ECB keep their printers all greased and in full throttle.
    See that 10Yr Bond Yield going down this morning. That was main competitor of Gold that going down the toilet.

  73. Gary Post author

    Nat gas is probably going down. Oil may have completed it’s HCL today and possibly forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

  74. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary:
    1) I think there is a larger probability (but untradeable now) that crude oil + Natgas to continue their declines to stretch CRB’s DC for many, many days ahead –> a swing high in stocks on Monday may set SM’s YC decline to take Energy market w/ it.

    2) why EUR’s DC did not retreat enough ? how much should it have retreated?! It had a fib-38 and a fib-retracement should suffice.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      …in the more likely scenario gold/miners/treasuries/yen would continue their advances –> hence GDX to new highs in this DC as risk-on assets go South, stretching CRB Index’ DC.

  75. Ed

    Zkotpen,
    How is your Quantitative Analysis coming along this morning?
    I keep telling you people. You can look charts, numbers, cycle all you want, but what drive the sentiments is news, rumors, shits like Waren Buffets Trump Twits, Comey testimony next week. and that sentiments drives cycle, charts. Not the other around.

  77. isavage

    Gary we are now on or just above my falling trend line fron 2011 top for gold.

    Breakout and retest or head fake? I know you’re calling for summer lows. But maybe they come after run-up to around 1300.

    Any changes to your plan with the action since NFPR?

  78. waverider

    So far Alex is winning the timeline argument. Irregardless people are buying gold. This is what Robert has been waiting yrs for.

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