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If it goes up from there, it will probably have to go down again to (nearly) test the downtrend line. So don’t get too excited unless that happens.
Why OIL is going up?
1 It tagged the lower trend line of its channel.
2 Volume on ERX, XLE, USO show a meaningful increase last week.
3. GOLD is reversing,.
I think it probably just boils down to the dollar. After a 6 month decline the dollar should be about ready to bounce for awhile.
Last year the YCL came in May. We’re about to move into July so it’s definitely due.
LABU is wayyyyy overbought. Glad I bought 2000 shares of
LABD at the close Friday.
Yup …
My take on the USD as reflected on UUP is that it first will hit the daily averages which are descending. This coincides with the upper trend line of its descending channel. Then it will go back to its lower channel trend line at $95. There USD may bounce. There is some correlation between UUP and TNX. TNX is threatening to break support and might pull down USD.
We shall see.
Sentiment on the 10 year is at extreme bullish levels not seen since July of last year.
The Blees rating on the 10 year COT is at a maximum bearish level of 0.
earthkitten,
Thanks for the tip on LABD.
I might get in.
Why did you get on Friday?
Volume appears still steady.
In this business it does not pay to be with the losers.
The play should be to get in LABU, in a jiffy it can reach $100.
The smart money might be involved and it can be a rocket to the moon.
The weekly chart shows it to be a rocket’s pedestal. Volume has not taken the strength of other instances.
One can think of shorting it when volume reaches 30-50 M in the weekly chart.
The current LABU weekly picayune volume of 11M is nothing in view of a volume of 120M in a typical JNUG week say.
Good lock!
Gold outlook failed, so let’s say outlandish things about biotech now.
QID. 2x short NAZ
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
June is the 10th anniversery of the start of the financial crisis. Bear Sterns had 2 of it’s hedge funds go under and really got the whole thing rolling. 2009 QID was seliing at almost 1900 dollars a share and today 16 and change. MY plan this week is sell some tech raise a little cash and buy a little QID. Isn’t qid British for money? KNow absolutely nothing and superstitous to boot.
Golid. I bought Friday because I have not seen something as
overbought as LABU in a long time. Check out the slow stochs.
Much more downside than upside.
earthkitten,
There was a discussion months ago in that overbought does not mean a reverse.
I hope you are right and make money on this. It can be a false breakout in view of the still low volume.
Have a solid stop loss just in case.
Upward pattern on XBI (Biotech) looks incomplete.
Still trading above the bollinger band, and hasn’t even come close to pulling back to the 5 day SMA.
In other words, it isn’t even testing the first lines of support yet.
Once it does, then maybe it will be time to cash out of longs, and think of shorting — not clear if this is a countertrend rally, or the start of a new trend. I think it’s the former, but not sure.
Meanwhile, still bullish biotech, at least for the current daily cycle. Looks more like a “hold” than a “buy” — still not a “sell” — much less not a “sell short”.
Xbi 82 it has been written.
Next resistance 90.
Looking at XBI shorting LABU might be justified.
Calculate risk:reward, make sure it’s >3, abide by those calculations.
If you win, good on you, if you lose, it’s the cost of doing business.
Must be hope-free and no directional bias.
Earthkitten was impatient. Heck, I was impatient shorting GDX last week — but I did not make the same mistake regarding long USDJPY.
And believe me, I am examining my own biases — asking myself: Why the hurry to act on miners, but a more strategic approach to dollar yen?
There are some people on here who are still long on biotech, and/or just beginning to take profits — those people are exercising the right tech analysis and the right strategy — good for them! I congratulate those folks for making good decisions and NOT placing bets and hoping 😉
Impatience is a common and prevalent trader’s disease.
I got on board on USO early, as usual, it would have been easy to look at the descending channel and wait till
USO tagged the lower trend line.
Bad trading habit that needs to be weeded out.
Goild,
Yes, I agree. Weird that I was impatient with shorting GDX, but not in going long USDJPY. The latter setup just hasn’t come yet. Nor has the former, actually.
Maybe it has something to do with the whole gap thingy… “OMG — I might miss out!” which turns into “OMG — that was stupid, what I did yesterday!”
But with the 24 hr market, I just wait, and watch. Study for a month. Get into the groove, and wait for the trade to come to me. If it doesn’t come, I don’t budge. End of story.
I need to transfer that mindset to the 6h30m markets.
Zkot,
I am thinking of starting to build a position on UVXY, say 500 shares. If it goes my way then double.
It has a great potential.
What do you think?
ERX might be another place to build a position?
I am ready for a good week for gold, silver and the miners. I don’t see any reason to get excited about the oils.
Maybe we should use you as our Gartman contrarian indicator. Gold and silver monkey hammered, oil looking on the verge of moving up big.
And just like that the B wave bounce is over…
I have to say that does look like manipulation today. 25,000 contracts dumped in the blink of an eye.
I would suggest waiting for a close below 1241 before trying to sell short again.
No kidding. That has manipulation written all over it. And the Buck hasn’t even budged.
25000 x 100 x 1250 = $3,125,000,000.
It dumped in one minute at 4:00 AM sharp. Cool stuff. Easy money for a Fed. 😅
The market sure made a lot of folks look like fools this morning with their gold calls.
Wht so amazing about these dumpings is they want to be as blatant as they can be. Just to show off they are in no fear of CFTC. Only NY FED trading drsk can do this stuff.
Gresham Law comes into my mind this morning. Bad money drives good money away into hoarding.
uff… the short in metals I was looking for last week!
Morning like this I miss rifle range. With my AR15. I could justrelieve the stress by hitting targrts 500 yards away.
This is why I keep stressing that you can’t trade metals solely by chart patterns. The big money will often paint the chart to entice retail traders and hedge funds to lean one way and set them up to get fleeced. They did it a couple of weeks ago with the phony rally and they did it last week only to fool you again.
Hey Gary. Makes you wonder if this new gold bull
market has a chance with all the manipulation.
Guess Avi was wrong again about gold going parabolic.
I’m sure he had two or three alternate wave counts so he’ll claim to have called it perfectly.
That’s the beauty of never actually making a call or just picking an entry and telling people to use a stop. Maybe subs should demand these newsletter writers actually run a real time portfolio and we’ll really see who’s swimming naked and who actually makes sustainable gains in the market. It’s not as easy as these guys like to make it seem.
I told you about a bearfest this week in the last thread, major monkeyhammer pulled out by TPTB 😐
Bought Africa Oil for a multi year hold … waiting to add miners.
Gary,
“This is why I keep stressing that you can’t trade metals solely by chart patterns.”
I couldn’t agree with you more. Chart patterns alone are full of ambiguity.
Step one of scientific method: Define the problem. 😉
Miners are going to get hard on this one. Panic will set in quickly with the trend line now broken.
“Someone” Dumps over $2 billion notional Gold, trading in a one-minute window.
Looks like Gary is right again and the Cartel are painting the ABC correction he suggested.
“The market remains clueless about this trigger.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/global-precious-idUSL3N1JN1KI
* Spot gold hits lowest since May 17
* Hedge funds cut long position in COMEX gold for second
week
(Recasts, updates prices, adds quotes)
By Nithin ThomasPrasad
BENGALURU, June 26 Gold prices fell one percent
to hit their lowest in near six weeks on Monday, amid a stronger
dollar and rise in Asian shares, ahead of a flurry of U.S. data
due this week.
“This sharp depreciation, which lacks any fundamental
drivers on a relatively quiet trading day has left investors
bewildered,” said Lukman Otunuga, research analyst, FXTM.
“With the fundamentals out of the picture, price action may
be the key culprit behind the decline,” he added.
Spot gold was down 1.2 percent at $1,241.89 per
ounce, as of 0912 GMT, touching its lowest since May 17.
U.S. gold futures for August delivery slipped 1.1
percent to $1,243.10 per ounce.
“The market remains clueless about this trigger. The sweep
went through CME, 18,500 lots gold and 5,500 lots silver,” said
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS in Switzerland.
Good morning,
How unexpected…
Well there must be an opportunity to make good money out of this.
Where is it?
Goild
If you want to play UVXY. You better hsve your fire extinguisher handy!
You will recall I’m constantly holding UVXY over 6 years and cover on spikes and also am short in second brokerage account. It’s the ONLY way I have survived!
We all know that things are madness v valuation or fundermenals. But I believe that Gary has a point that the Central banks can send the Indexes anywhere they choose.
All the old measures have been abandoned when you have infinite new money buying.
I’m believing in a potential 1987 sharp correction to sell UVXY in to. Then flip short in to Garys doubling from here.
Only thing that will change that for me is a true black Swan event. USD crash, central bank loss of confidence etc…
But as a trade and you being the “king of launch money” and rapid trading. I think you would enjoy play long / short game as I have.
Hope this if interest
Best regards from the UK
isavage,
Thank you for the comments.
I know almost nothing UVXY but the SVXY must stop sooner or later.
Today UVXY has already about 4% drop and the bottom might be close.
The potential is pretty good.
I am thinking starting with 250 shares and see how it behaves.
Oh London! Like to visit there again.
Wave 5 of wave C? Wave 4 almost entered wave 1, but looks like it won’t. Gold.