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Surf city: expecting a pm low around June 20-22 higher than early may low. But this does not seem to agree with your take on cycles and sentiment.
It’s possible for gold to complete a DCL in late June, but then I think we would probably need one more daily cycle before an ICL bottom could form.
I think it all boils down to how long an intermediate rally lasts in the dollar…. and that may depend on when the next daily cycle low occurs in the stock market. I’m covering this in the special Sunday report.
General consensus among cycle folks: intermediate cycle duration of 5/6 months continues to work. 6 months from Dec 2017 takes us to ICL in June. Number of DCs nested in an IC could vary. If we get an ICL in June, next ICL would be in Dec 2017? Then, there is talk of late July/ early Aug low by some other cycle folks. Regarding sentiment, when it gets extreme at an ICL, whenever it happens, there will be a big buzz on the internet about it to market their sentiment wares. In the meanwhile, cycle folks can successfully confuse themselves and others. Interesting?
The old cycle durations were 18-22 weeks for an intermediate cycle in gold.
The last one ran 28 weeks. The one before that ran 24 weeks, and the current one is on week 26.
I think all cycles are evolving because of the currency war and interventions in the currency and global stock markets are warping the currency cycles. That has to have an effect on all other markets.
Bill in Tokyo, Ed,
Thanks for drawing my attention to Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM).
I just care about the numbers, and if I can make sense of the chart 🙂
I recall posting on the premium blog back in March, 2014, that then-SLW was showing greater volatility than GDX. But they dropped off my radar.
If you compare moves up & down with GDX, WPM is good for maybe 15% better return (6% compared to 7% is a significant difference!). Both are just under $9B market cap, so no liquidity risk to speak of.
But the key difference is, if one can find the clarity on the charts — GDX was busy mucking about in a range Friday and gave a hint of its possible intentions late in the session. WPM got down to business right from about 10:10 a.m., no wavering, no ambiguity. I like that!
So what I’m calling the X wave to May lows in gold and GDX — a zig zag in both — looks like a pretty straightforward triangle — wave B — in WPM.
Uff… just makes more work for me, but WPM could have a better payoff than GDX.
Hi zkotpen. Ed did all the homework on WPM (formerly SLW). I used to like it, but the daily charts of FNV and RGLD look much better – because GLD looks better than SLV. I will still keep WPM on my radar, but Ed has a good point about, why did they change their name? And, if GDX is mostly gold stocks, and if GLD continues to outperform SLV, then maybe GDX will continue to outperform WPM, in the short term.
YTD gains
—————-
FNV 22% !
GDX 9%
GDXJ 4%
GLD 10% !
RGLD 24%
SIL 10%
SLV 8%
WPM 5%
QQQ 18% !
XLE -11% 😉
Bill in Tokyo,
Thanks for the suggestions! I’ll have a look at those other charts.
I’m not too concerned with overall returns.
Rather, my 3 criteria: volatility, market cap, and pattern recognition
If those things work, then I’m in.
It was a somewhat gullible naive buy a week ago but I was 92% out of the market, not prepared for an early breakout. It was NO BREAKOUT. Look at the log scale chart, close but no cigar:
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/619894#comment-619894
and then of course I was in for a financial a$$rape in k92&Platinum group metal, crashing 10-15% in one day, just the day after I bought them, so typical isn’t it?
Still in very good shape though, prepared for either scenario going forward!
Steff : thanks for posting the link to the two charts that clearly show there has NOT been a breakout as demonstrated by the chart using the log scale. Many people just don’t get the importance of using log scales for study, particularly over longer time periods. The percentage move is what is important and only log scales show a percentage move in proper context.
I wouldn’t be surprised to hear PLG announce more dilution soon
SLW changed to WPM simply because they have broadened their PM focus and are now not as focused on silver as they once were. They thought using silver in their name had become misleading to their actual execution of their business model.
Cycle work is the best. If they work, one can jump and beat one’s chest. When they don’t work and are twice, triple or even quadruple the length they ‘should’ be, they have evolved. When they are short, cut to as little as one day, well, that’s obviously manipulation. The perfect system. AVI must be insanely jealous.
Cycles are just one tool along with sentiment to give one an edge.
Yes they are not as accurate as they used to be due to central banks interventions in the currency markets and stock markets.
Just for the record , I followed AVI for some time and noted that he is NEVER wrong. He covers every possible outcome so it really doesn’t matter what happens, he is always right! It’s a tactic used by many analysts but he has perfected the tactic to a degree unmatched.
He comes across as a smart man but given that he is supposedly educated in law, I could never figure out why he makes extensive use of quotation marks inappropriately in his writings. Strange quirk.
Okay, so everyone is on board with gold and the miners taking a big hit as they drop into a cycle low? That’s fine but I am not convinced that the rally is over just yet nor will I be caught ‘watching’ without a stake in the PM sector as surprises unfold. As Gary once pointed out : in a bull market, all timing mistakes are corrected.
Couldn’t agree more with your last video Gary.. That big ass green candle on Tuesday had manipulation written all over it and was completely uncharacteristic. Glad I had enough sense to keep my core position in DUST.
I’m curious to see what kind of volatility the Miners will be experiencing leading up to and during FOMC. Will PMs throw us another curve ball?? Let’s find out 🙂
Ps: Where are all the whiners and non-believers…………….? I miss you guys Lol!
Probably In the middle of the wilderness with limited WIFI, skinny dipping in the lake.
Gold is getting squeezed in a triangle. Guessing may not be very helpful. What kind of volatility will arise in the next 3 days is uncertain. Great time for market letter writers to expound their thesis until then. If it does not pan out, fall back upon manipulation exit.
That’s what I’ve been saying for months. Gold now needs to test the lower triangle trend line around 1160-80.
Last 2 FOMC rate hikes marked a bottom in gold. This time WAS looking different, but with the correction in gold that started last week, the same pattern is emerging: Gold tanking into FOMC, FOMC announces rate hike, gold gets bullish. I will be watching the next 4 trading days for a continued drop in gold and RSI getting into oversold territory to make a stronger case for gold to turn back up within a day or two of the FOMC announcement.
MT
Actually the last two rate hikes marked a top in the dollar. This time is different though as the dollar has not been rising into the rate hike like the other two. This time the dollar has been dropping for months so expect the opposite to occur and this time the rate hike will trigger a rally in the dollar instead of a drop.
XLE/ERX — A weekly bullish engulfing candle is a sure sign that energy has found a bottom.. all we need now is for OIL to form a swing low to further increase the probability of a trend change.
A decisive break of the channel trendline would be a good place to add to a current position.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/cVOkUGGc/
Woops! Ignore that last link.. it came up all screwy.
Try this one instead:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/sNy7WSkQ/
Three companies, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet comprise 10% of the S&P index (by weight) and all were down substantially on Friday, yet the S&P barely budged and finished off the day with a minuscule loss of 0.08%. That can only mean that the billions coming out of the tech stocks went immediately back into other sectors. The big players (central banks) were not waiting for a better prices and were certainly not keeping cash out of play, even for a few minutes. I guess that’s what happens when you have players with unlimited funds, price becomes irrelevant.
The rotation out of tech stocks, and into oils and finance, was controlled and performed in such smooth fashion that there were only minor disruptions to the world’s most widely watched index, the S&P. No panic, no fear.
The degree to which the markets are being micro-managed by central banks is truly astounding. I would love to know what their end game is. Total control perhaps?
The end game is as clear as can be. As long as global stock markets remain propped up there can be no recession.
After thousands of years central banks finally figured out how to control the business cycle.
What they haven’t figured out is how to keep markets propped up but not allow them to transition into a bubble.
The fact we can never know where we are in a bubble and how much further it might go, makes for a pretty flimsy investment thesis. Markets have crashed all through history along with currencies and central banks, so I dont think they have finally figured out how to print more money after thousands of years. or that this time its different.
Most important, none of this speculation has to do with cycles, which is the focus of your research and trading. It seems you might be out of place at times, like when arguiung that the banks moved gold manipulation to the miners, clearly wasnt the case. Even before that you said manipulation doesnt exist in metals ( couple years ago), now its your sole investment thesis.
Just sharing my observations, hope you dont take it the wrong way.
There are DNA markers that occur during the final parabolic move of a bubble.
I dare say that if the gold chart looked like the stock market no one that reads this blog would consider it to be a bubble. If that’s the case then why would you think stocks are in a bubble and about to top right now?
Bubbles take about a year and a half to complete. That’s about how long it takes for the public to catch on and everyone to jump in.
I consider the beginning to have occurred on election night. or maybe the breakout in the Nasdaq. So we aren’t even a year into this phase yet. Still way too early for a final bubble to pop.
During the final bubble price will rally very far above the 200 DMA. 50-100% above it.
At the final top there is massive public participation. We saw that kind of participation in tech in 2000 and in real estate in 2006. We have nothing resembling that kind of irrational behavior yet.
At Friday’s top the Nasdaq was only 13% above the 200 DMA. That doesn’t sound like any kind of parabolic bubble to me.
Usually the bubble phase starts when price breaks out of a long term channel. That is just barely starting now (and we may be about ready for a correction to delay the breakout).
And yes this is cyclical. The 7 YCL just occurred a year and a half ago. I would argue it’s way too early for the multi-year cycle to top yet. Even if it’s destined to be left translated (and I think it is) it wouldn’t likely top until probably year 2 or 3.
Well, if we only have maybe 6 months left of the bubble, does it make sense to keep pushing the long side, especially since the first 8 months of the bubble were missed? And what if its only 5 months left and you exit a month late, kind of like what happened in silver in 2011?
I am not saying the market collapses, it could just bounce around here for a long, long time, but again, that doesnt make us money.
So much unwavering focus on pms and energy on this board! Fas is breaking out. Could be a good trade on pull back for a ride to the next resistance. The most promising stocks in xle are: cvx, oxy and eqt. Rest are still half asleep. My favourite play is cvx.
vix is just waking up. When it shoots up like a geyser and begins to lose momo, that may be the time to get back into tech etfs for the ride to Gary’s nas target of 10,000?
Exactly. You don’t need to chase tech right here. But you darn well better be prepared to buy any dip. The deeper and more scary the better.
A “Dip” is what happened on Friday, further down would be a pullback and then some. Curious as to what point you’d think a buy would be good, 200sma is like a mile lower so that is not a dip, more like a canyon.
The deeper and scarier the better.
Gary,
Do you have a preferred Tech ETF that you like to play in that sector or do you just utilize the broader market ETF’s for positions.
My apologies if the question is redundant and already been answered.
Current stock markets keep bring me a picture of a frog in water in a pan that is about to boiled very slowly.
So no drastic crash, nonetheless just dreadful boring summer, fall, winter, and then spring, summer, fall, winter …. Draghi is still your best friend 😉 BTFD, sure “go ahead, make my day”
USDJPY and dollar down, gold flat to down. Not sure where today goes but not looking good right now. GUSH and ERX for today.
It’s almost hilarious at this point. I keep calling these intermediate bottoms and no one ever believes me.
Then they get bullish months later after the rally has already run its course and is ready for a correction.
I did a very comprehensive report on the stock market yesterday. Everyone should read it as the stock market is the place to be over the next 6 months to a year. (hint, you don’t want to chase right now).
Gary,
I’m very surprised you did not reply to a simple, very mundane, specific question, that was a non-confrontational question about a simple tech ETF.
You’re ability to step over and not address something so simple speaks volumes about you at the core. Oh well!
Sorry I didn’t see it.
I just stick with QQQ & SPY
If you want to leverage go with TQQQ & UPRO.
Now is not the time to be leveraged BTW.
Thank you Gary. Much appreciated!
Gary — I realize you’re trying to sell subscriptions but there’s really no need for a comprehensive report on the stock market.
You’ve said it a million times: We’re headed towards a bubble. In fact, we’ve likely already started. This is a ‘buy & hold’ and don’t look back kinda opportunity. And I would (for those of you that haven’t already) diversify across 3 ETFs, including a triple leveraged, that are likely to outperform over the next few months. Simple 😉
I’m trying to help people learn how the markets work so they can make money. Everyone really should read the Sunday report on the stock market so you understand what may be about to occur in the weeks ahead and can take advantage of it.
Silver is done. It won’t be long before gold and miners follow.
It’s time to be patient.
I think we will all get a much better spot to buy in about 4-7 weeks.
you can be sure gold will tank….with 226K contracts Net Short by Commercials….!! up from 188K……
ZKOT:
This is what I was referring last week: gold continuing down, no significant upside on a minor trend (wave B), hence no room for a bull trap.
Gold is grinding its way down to DCL, with a deep down thrust on FOMC’s rate hike (and up thrust for USX) and around there will be buying time when it is early in its new DC (at ~1240) to ride it up to its YCH above 1300 through late July/beginning of Aug.
Nah, the dollar cycle and gold cycle are already too long to expect another daily cycle higher (in gold) and lower (in the dollar)
The rate hike is the trigger for the dollar to confirm its ICL and rally for a couple of months and for gold to test the lower triangle trend line.
Oil bottomed in May just like I said it did. OPEC has no intention of letting oil drop back into the 30’s.
goody good: CRB index on the dead cat bounce expected (new DC), taking Natgas up in a new DC to reverse soon –> i’ll re-short there (@~3.1)
2-3 months from now the energy stocks will have cycled the weekly charts back to overbought levels. I will be proven correct again and almost everyone will have missed the rally again because that’s what people do.
90% always have to be on the wrong side of the market.
Gary, I am sorry but I think that would prove incorrect: USX and CRB Index (hence oil/NG) will be advancing this week on dead cat bounces alone –> FOMC’s hike will be buy-the-rumor-sell-the news type of event, smart money will be doing contrarian trades to the thrusts (up for USX and down for gold) to be generated in the aftermath of the rate hike.
USX going down next week (and gold up>1300) after a rate hike will confuse many but it should not bewilder us, we should expect them 🙁
Alex and Gary – you two are on opposing sides once again when it comes to energy. One thinks it’s a minor wave up while the other thinks we’ve had an ICL. I guess we’ll soon see who’s right.
SOXS has sure put on a good show – though it looks like it’s hitting at least a temporary top soon.
there is a lot of compelling data to support the view we have yet to see YCL in energy later on this summer (beginning of August or so).
Weekly [and daily] swing high in Nasd100 (and semis too) as well as close to delivering a failed IC !
My short-CAC40 trades are paying off! 🙂
Nice work Alex. So if this is a swing high in Nasd100 – we should expect this downtrend to last for at least a few weeks right?
I’m getting ready to buy Dust this week. Could even be to-day if I like the set up.
I H&S
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70067432362
the banksters are rotating from tech to financials.
Took my stop off GDX. I will ride out any declines and add more when the time is right. Gold stocks are not looking all that weak and when the turn comes it could be sudden.
You’re LONG Miners??? This late in the cycle? WTF
I have to ask ,what was the initial point of having a stop loss?
Dday, the point of the stop was to protect me against another big sell off in gold. It didn’t happen and I don’t think it will so I took off the stop.
Good morning to all. First chance I have had to look at the markets and I don’t see anything unexpected. I got a fill for some silver and will buy more if it drops further. Gary, did you ever get back into DUST after you were stopped out?
Yes we re entered at a slightly better price than where we got stopped out.
I was pretty sure the rally was a bankster created move but we had to make sure just in case.
Once the miners started to reverse the next day we had confirmation that the rally was nothing more than a trap.
You made the right move to buy dust. The juniors GDXJ is acting weirdly. It seems that junior miners will be immune to any gold selloff into the ICL. It may not go down much
You’re kidding yourself if you think the miners are going to hold up during a $100 drop in gold.
It’s still relatively early in the daily cycle. It’s not time yet for the real selling panic. The bulls are still trying to buy the dip. There will be a recognition day soon. Once that hits then the real selling will start.
Ok lets see just saying that the juniors are holding up better so the drop might not be as strong in them compared to seniors
There were big sell offs this morning in the semis, Amazon and Google but they have recovered rather sharply. It’s hard to believe that after all the tech carnage, the S&P has barely moved down.
How many times must this happen before you get it?
The government uses the PPT to protect the markets. It’s how they control the business cycle.
There is an FOMC meeting on Wednesday where the Fed is going to hike rates again. They aren’t going to allow a big sell off ahead of that. If a profit taking event is going to occur it will be after the meeting.
Read my comment above regarding market manipulation. I just don’t think the PPT is at work here, it is other central banks who are not being secretive about the their massive stock purchases that are pouring money into equities.
What would the purpose of the so called PPT to be secretive about their intervention? There is no valid reason for them not to disclose their actions which are supposed to occur only during times of extreme market crisis.
Reactive interventions don’t work very well and cost a hell of a lot more money than proactive ones.
I think the PPT learned that lesson during the mini bear in 2011.
We haven’t had many significant pullbacks since then other than the 7 YCL, and even that was pretty weak.
it barely moved down because rotation from tech to financials. Check the ratio XLF:SPY.
Why are the oils moving up with crude sitting at 46 bucks? Just oversold?
While oils have moved up some in the past three trading days and no doubt there will be those that will say they loaded up on ERX at it’s recent low of 24.50, the fact is that anyone who bought ERX or XLE during the past few months, is still deep underwater and in no position to be ‘chest beating’ until we they are at least even on the numerous failed trades.
The time to sell is when the weekly charts get overbought.
All one has to do is get “close enough”.
We got close enough IMO and when we sell several months from now I think we will have made a nice tidy sum of money.
Gary, when was the last time you held anything for “several months”?
The miners from the Dec. low to the Feb. top.
there are also the energy and metals portfolios trades, not doing so good yet, held for some time, which I hope for break even, or hopefully some gain soon;
Ok, two months is a long time. LOL
You give me crap about weathering a 2 week drawdown in DUST during a counter trend bounce. Make up your mind.
I’m holding DUST until I think the intermediate decline is finished.
Very true Don.
How are we doing JNUG?😅
TQQQ is down 3-4% today. As per seasonality – TQQQ is weak in June – this is the dropoff I was expecting – will wait until late June/early to July to buy.
Bluelagoon, where can you find seasonality on TQQQ (or any other ETF)? I would appreciate a link. Thanks in advance.
JJ – here’s an example – http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=tqqq&compare=
You can also check out that ticker against its inverse.
Caution it is only for the past 5 years. I usually see what strength periods are and then go back further than 2013 to see how a ticker performed prior to 2013 to see if the trends hold. Some do for certain months more than others like TQQQ for June and July.
The same could be said about DUST. From it’s high of 38.68 on May, it has declined and sits at 28.69 today, so despite it having gone up for the past four days, it still has been a piss poor performer.
The same strategy applies. There will always be short term swings in any intermediate trend. If you think you can successfully catch every one of them you are kidding yourself.
The intermediate trend in miners has been down since February.
We will sell at the bottom (or as close as I can get to it) of the ICL and then you can judge whether it was a successful trade or not.
Then I will start buying NUGT for the ride back up. Of course by that time everyone will think I’m crazy for buying metals as the charts will be saying that gold is going lower.
Gary, looking forward to see that happening first and see that DUST finally on the green.
I just sold all my ZJG (a junior gold ETF ) at a nice profit and bought a double leveraged senior miner Canadian ETF (HGU) . I don’t believe we are going to get any significant sell of in the senior miners.
As many of you may have noticed, SOXS has gone up quite a bit in the past few days as the semis have taken a hit. I have plenty of that ETF but you don’t hear me bragging about getting it right because my position is still deep under water. I held on to a losing position too long and now need a big decline in the semis just to break even. Calling for a market sector to turn, over and over, until it finally happens does not always prove to be profitable. No chest beating here.
Miners expecting another bounce after FOMC. They are up with metals down. While it is possible that metals and miners rally again with the hike news, I suspect this time they will retreat and catch everyone off guard. The last 3 times saw a bounce, this one will catch everyone. Just my guess.
Don, maybe your play on SOXS will pay off yet as the market is looking soft but why did you hold on to a 3X fund when it was going against you? Would it not have been smarter to sell and wait for a better price? Well, at least you honest about your trades, unlike so many other bull shitters here like those that say they make “lunch money” every day.
JJ_ I held because I was sure the semis were going to collapse. My timing was off and they soared. Bad move on my part.
Interesting JNUG and JDST are out of sync today. JDST is down more than JNUG is up, possible rebalancing moves having some effects?
very weird, Gold down, GDX down but GDXJ up
That is the only explanation I can think of. I noticed GDXJ was behaving oddly on Friday and switched from JDST to DUST, but wasn’t sure if I was making the right choice. But now I am so happy I did that! I am going to consider switching back to JDST on Monday, depending on how it performs in the morning. I was thinking last week that the rebalancing was just going to be a big nothing sandwich, but I guess I was wrong.
Where is our favorite player today? Bigdaddy?
BD was saying something friday about smashing his monitor…maybe….LOL.
BITCOIN got hit hard again.
This just out: Dennis Gartman is bullish on the Nasdaq and Financial stocks. He has been, by far, the best contrary indicator of all analysts. He gets it wrong far more than anyone gets it right.
Good afternoon,
It seems that today is a good day for JNUG. The divergence with GOLD is interesting.
Though recall that on Friday JNUG was also above gold to level and fallin the last hour.
is not interesting, is actually wrong … gold down usually means both pairs GDX/NUGT and GDXJ/JNUG down
Well, there are occasions where miners lead, and today may mark the beginning of such an occasion.
yes agree, but if they would lead, both GDJ and GDXJ would lead … and is not the case; Gold down, GDX down … GDXJ weird likely because of the re balancing, and likely they’ll align soon on the downtrend …
It’s still a bit too early in the daily cycle for the real selling pressure to begin. Likely more churn above the $22.50 support zone in GDX this week.
Once $22.50 breaks though then the real selling pressure into the DCL will begin.
JNUG volume is pretty weak.
is ‘weak volume” a bearish sign?
Could be bullish or bearish, simply stated the fact the volume was light.
If we are going down to where Gary says, it will sell off Robert.
Yes
Indeed the day is mixed FXY is up.
Gary, I just asked if you got back into DUST so what ‘crap” are you referring to? You said that you got stopped out of DUST. Now you have bought back in: ” Yes we re entered at a slightly better price than where we got stopped out.”
You need a subscription to know Gary’s latest trades. He still has to earn a living.
Gary got out and re-entered at almost the same price.
Kruze, are you suggesting Gary NEEDS the subscription service to survive? Don’t his trading skills count for something?
No and Yes.
good question …. only Gary would know the real answer 🙂
Gary, seems gold is still down, but GDX joined GDXJ on the green side. What’s your take on this?
Bluelagoon, thanks very much for the link regarding seasonality! Excellent tool.
You’re welcome JJ. I find it helpful. An example is DGAZ vs UGAZ with May & Oct being winning months for DGAZ majority of the time.
Bluelagon, yes, with weekly swing hign, the downtrend should last at least 3 w from now, then a deadcat bunce (Zkot would say a B-wave) and then a final leg down to YCL.
But! I think stock market will have a bounce on FOMC day so that Transports would be able to render a higher high in this DC and to allow EUR, treasuries, GDX, gold to have a down thrust to accomodate their DCLs.
Thus, before a strong dive, we should see some sideways moving with a bounce till after FOMC announcement of the rate hike.
Thanks Alex. Your trajectory makes sense. I am not shorting the SM until I see more after the FOMC. Gold is also going sideways so I’m not in that either for now. Oil has been the best play but it looks to be a short term bounce only.
never getting any easier!
GDX — I’m expecting a bounce up over the next couple of days. Possibly up to 50% Fib.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z6EpW2Lz/
I greatly doubt that gap will be filled before DCL is set on tje rate hike release.
Alex, you think Gold is going to get down this time on the rate hike?
Why would be different than last 2 times when Gold went up?
I ve been saying something else: the first reaction of the market will be in the expected, “normal” directions (gold down to DCL arround 1240 and USX up to DCH) while smart money will use that weakness (strength) to buy gold (sell dollars) in anticipation of gold going up above 1300 through July.
The expected direction is for the dollar to drop. The last two rate hikes have trained traders to expect the dollar to fall on a hike.
This time it will do the opposite.
Because that’s what markets do. They make you think you’ve got it all figured out . Then they do the opposite of what you have come to expect and take your money away.
The last two rate hikes the dollar was rising so it made sense that the reaction would be for the dollar to “sell the news” and drop.
This time the dollar has been dropping for 5 months so the reaction should be the opposite, and the dollar should rally on the news.
The FOMC is the only catalyst left for miners to drop. There is no reason for GDX to churn around 22.5. if the miners don’t drop this week then what will be the reason for them to drop next week? And u keep saying it’s still early in gold cycle for the drop. My gosh when will it happen then, another month? Lol
I hope you are right Christian although I would like it to do more than just fill a gap. I have a fair chunk of change into GDX.
A rally for silver and gold would be nice anytime soon.
Gary, you will then be in for a surprise on usx and gold.
that’s because you deem MAR10 just a DCL instead of ICL and because you ignore cot report on the dollar which is ultra-bearish as well as the contrarian attitude smart money will take: they will sell the dollar into the rate-hike strength.
Popoviciiiiii — I trust Gary’s cycle count more than I trust yours my friend. His cycle count also lines up with my own as well as a couple of other Analysts I trust and follow explicitly.
You need to spend more time studying the subject at hand before giving away free advice.
Christian DUST performing well but whats the deal with GDXJ? Up for no reason at all. Its like a big game. Gold up gdxj down now gold down gdxj up. I was telling Gary earlier that GDXJ is strong and it might not sell off as much as GDX during this ICL
If we are going to down to the levels Gary says, it is going to sell off. The juniors lose a little and the percentages are huge. It does not take much drop to get panic selling in the juniors. I will say that with silver getting slammed some silver miners held up nicely and some even went up. That is some what concerning when sitting on the sidelines. I am still open to the possibility I may have to chase as an upside breakout is not out of the question. That said, better to be late to an uptrend than early to a collapse.
I hope you are right as I wish to buy cheap gdxj but looks like it may not happen
No, we hope Gary is right. I have FOMO. Seeing lots of upside and a lot are above where I sold we we were supposed to GET OUT! Still keeping the faith.
GDXJ is busy rebalancing.. I personally would stay away from the Juniors for now. Google for details.
Exxon, Chevron and GE, all Dow stocks, took their turns at keeping the S&P index looking healthy with the S&P down a minuscule 0.10% today.
DUST — 30 min chart. I could be wrong but this is what I think might happen in the very short term.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/YCxLjMM8/
Ps: I am ‘no matter what’ still SHORT Miners — big picture.
Palladium has been going up like crazy lately. Isn’t it considered a precious metal? Platinum’s chart doesn’t look so shabby either. Gold is holding it’s own but silver has been taking a shellacking. I think I will look into buying silver after the FOMC meeting.
So far, the easy money does not appear to be in the Nasdaq.
OMG you’ve got to be kidding?
Yes the Nasdaq is due for a correction. Like I said, the bigger and scarier the better.
But, the Nasdaq is still up 45% since the 7 YCL last spring.
You need to take your blinders off, and more importantly if we do get a correction you need to be able to pull the trigger and buy, buy, buy.
OMG? You need to take your blinders off, what the hell does the Nasdaq being up 45% last few months have to do wiith your account and what is going to happen the next few months? You act as if you’ve been making candy, but you’re slipping all over the place, spinning uour wheels at best. It happens to everybody, but trying to claim victory is a real stretch for even you at this point.
As I said, SO FAR since your statement was made, the easy money doesnt appear to be in the Nasdaq. Jeez man, you’re the ine with blinders, blaming banks while not making the money you say is easy, gauranteed, or whatever other terms you use.
The stock portfolio is up 90%. We are doubling the Nasdaq.
Looking at the multiyear cycles for gold, silver, GDX, WPM, USDJPY — these things are crazy confusing. No wonder people are confused about the state of intermediate and yearly cycles at present. Miners & USDJPY seem to be the most telling — bearish and bullish, respectively.
… my brain feels like it’s been tied in a knot looking at the multiyear charts!
It was a off beat day with PMs down GDXJ up, miners mixed up and down, techs bouncing around, seems like the market lost all direction?
Zkot,
Thanks for your GOLD correlations with GDX and USD/JPY.
I like the correlation chart.
Do you know how to tell if gold will have a good, bad, or a sideways day?
Premarket behavior, volume, and previous day candles can help to tell.
Though I wonder if you or anyone else has a good recipe to tell how gold will fare for the day?
I will go on record now that the buy, buy, buy call in stocks won’t be held longer than a month. Anybody can buy, and everybody thinks they will hold, and even Gary himself will be out before a month passes.
Why? bc even if the trade works it is a bubble trade and bubbles cant be held bc they pop. People jave a hard time resisting the call for fast, easy money, yet so few have it! This time is different!
with such convincing bullishness, why wont this trade last longer than a few weeks, if that?
Christian, yes, I see a lot of talk among analysts on USD having left an ICL behind last week and that its ensuing lasting advance would cause gold down in IC decline – I personally do not understand this view at all but…we’ll see.
A rally above 97.50 would complete a weekly swing.
At 56 weeks this is already one of the longest, if not the longest intermediate cycle in history. I’m not sure how much longer you expect it to continue.
The drop in January was not an ICL. It didn’t even come close to breaking the intermediate trend line. Also the top in the euro in January was clearly not an intermediate top which it would have had to be if the dollar had made an ICL.
Like I said yesterday, silver is done. It’s only a matter of time before gold gives up and follows it down into its ICL.
The lower triangle trend line will be some where around 1160-1180 depending on how long it takes gold to get there.
The miners have been trying to tell anyone who would listen that something is wrong. They made their high way back in February and never followed gold to new highs.
I’m pretty sure the banksters are going to run everyone’s stops below the December lows (in miners and probably silver) during the ICL.
Gold will not drop below the December low.
There are a number of miners that look good and don’t jive with what you are saying. IAG for example is one – it is up above the 50 day and 200 day and the 50 day is heading up. They posted good numbers for the March qtr. Last week it closed near the top of the weekly trading range on above average volume in spite of gold’s sell off.
Price Insenstive Investors are the source of all evils.
Goild,
“There’s nothing good or bad, but your thinking makes it so.”
Good posture certainly helps.
Cycles just go up and down. Blows my mind, either way. Pick your cycle(s). Make sure trends line up 3 fractals deep in the same direction. You have your preferred cycle. One half step — half octave? — higher to make sure you’re trading in the right direction. When your preferred cycle is going in the same direction as a half step higher, then look for an entry a half step lower.
For example, if you trade daily cycles, you should trade them going the same direction as the intermediate cycle — half octave higher. When those two are in line, look a half octave lower, to the intraday, when it lines up with your daily cycle, and signals a move in the same direction, then you’ve got all 3 going the same way, you can trade the daily cycle. Look for your exit point a half step lower, same as you looked there for your entry point.
That strategy is bulletproof — you’re the one who mentioned self-control. You can boil self-control down to not getting edgy and jumping the gun. That example is for trading daily cycles. Wiggles work the same way for day trading. Yearly cycles work the same way for long term. And self-control rules the day.
If you want to trade yearly cycles, you’ve got to line them up with the multiyear a half octave higher. The intermediate a half octave lower will determine entries and exits. Naturally, that’s the biggest challenge on the self-control aspect: One gets anxious and lines up cycles that simply are not aligned. If a singer needs to take it up an octave, or down an octave, they just do it, without trying to force the wrong key. Try to force the wrong key, and that’s the death of one’s account, as a singer or trader 😉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAOpk1Xu5cE
Gold is trying to break through major support this morning at 1265. It’s not so stretched below the 10 DMA that it needs to bounce yet. Short term sentiment is tame at 40% bulls. When sentiment get into the low teens then it’s time for a bounce. And there should be some kind of bounce if we are now in a larger intermediate degree decline. Remember ICL’s unfold as at least a 3 wave pattern down.
We haven’t had a pullback like that yet and that’s another clue that none of the recent dips were ICL’s. They were just minor daily cycle lows.
I’m not looking too hard into any moves before the Fed tomorrow, even cycles won’t matter much ahead of Fed news on lazy summer trading days.
Any changes in when you plan to buy the Nasdaq, perhaps the low is in?
I covered it in detail in the Sunday report.
crude seems to be struggling.
Crude is either basing at the bottom or building a bear flag.
The action in energy stocks the last several days would seem to suggest it’s basing.
It should be struggling after 336,000 barrel a day increase by OPEC in May.
vix not in the mood to spike. 2 day pull back?
erx back on track?
tqqq bounce to 105, then dip to 95 in abc correction?
Tech stocks are back in favor . Big divergence between crude and oil stocks. Crazy morning,
Anyone have an idea why GDXJ is so strong? Its behaving the opposite way now, when gold goes down it actually goes up or very steady. Before gold would go up and GDXJ keeps going down. So if it stays this way then as gold goes down into its ICL then GDXJ will not lose as much as GDX
I think that will change on Monday, after the rebalancing of GDXJ is finished, which is going to be very early on the way to the ICL. we’ll see.
My guess. The re balancing was announced couple months ago. It may be that they have completed most or all of the new make up of the fund and the selling of companies who will NOT be included has been completed. GDX/GDXJ are holding up well with this mild pull back in gold. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow to gold and the miners with the FED announcement.
$1258 was the main resistance on the way up and its holding strong so far. The last two interest rate rises led to sharp gains in gold, third time lucky? The technical picture is different this time though with gold mildly overbought….dollar oversold
senior pm stocks in bouncing mood?
Miners may be going to lead now. JNUG up over 2%, GDXJ looking good. Jnug just broke out over resistance.
Crude oil, gold, natural gas are down. Oil, gold and natural gas stocks are up It all makes perfect sense to a contrarian. That’s ok as long as GDX keeps moving up.
It all makes sense to the machines that are doing the bulk of the trading. Fundamentals of any kind no longer matter.
Just another trade goin the wrong way. ala savage.
Just another wiggle to sucker the day traders and amateurs onto the wrong side of the market.
I’ve seen this many times. The banksters will whipsaw the market over and over fleecing both sides, then the real move into the DCL will occur and produce the real buying opportunity.
Gary
Why not wait to enter when you’re certain the banks are goin to fuck with us? You changed your system after last fall, why not again? Especially with cycles erratic.
Well if I could get the damn banksters to send me a memo when they are done we would always have perfect entries.
Since thats never going to happen I just try to get close enough.
Canned answer. If you miss two in a row with 3x…..sayonara.
I am buying more silver.
I think it’s still too early. Gold still needs to produce at least one failed daily cycle.
Cycles? Gary is the expert. All that I can see is gold majors trying hard for a tepid bounce. Once it is done, it is down hill to Dec lows?
Silver has been beaten down non stop .
erx finding legs?
Just like I predicted.
Just like every other ICL for the last 10 years.
No one every believes me at bottoms.
No one ever buys at bottoms.
The charts always say that price is going lower.
That’s when price turns back up.
I predict that 10 years from now nothing will have changed. I will still be calling bottoms and still no one will ever believe me. Why? Because human nature never changes. And 90% of you always have to be on the wrong side of the market. Very few people can be true contrarians. It’s too hard to go against the herd. Most people are sheep. And the sheep always get eaten by the wolves. 🙂
Gary, how many “bottoms” have you called for oil and been wrong? I figure that when ERX is north of 30 bucks, (which I figure is about your break even point and that being a generous estimate), then you can beat your chest until it hurts.
JUST like you predicted? Did you predict stopping out, too? Nobody will ever accuse you of being humble, thats for sure! 😉
Your DUST + ERX trades are underwater, and you keep claiming that your’re calling the bottoms. Nothing could be further from the truth. if anything you’re the perfect contrarian indicator.
dwt turning its tail? Gary, a little bit of chest thumping please, on your bottom call for energy complex. Hopefully, you are now above your entry price?
I guess we are finding out why oil stocks have been strong given the sharp reversal in crude. Is this just a “squiggle”?
Is the pull back in the SM over, already?
Why is GUSH and GASL up 3-5% and ERX up only .5%? Is ERX a buy then?
JJ: Maybe ERX isn’t doing much because that’s what Gary is holding. LOL. Just kidding. If the oil rally continues, ERX will catch up. That said, I have no intention of buying it.
Gary GDXJ is defying the drop into ICL just like I said. Almost at a new high today
Gary already said that GDXJ was screwy because of the rebalancing business, so he is focusing on GDX for analysis, which is behaving as planned.
Yeah, where were all the prognosticators on that one?
⛏ goin down. finally new high
For the most part, Canadian oil stocks are not participating in the oil stock rally. Perhaps it is because they are of no interest to the central banks who are much more inclined to buy US stocks.
Alex P – where do you see us on crude and NG? It’s looking to me like we are bouncing up – maybe a new DCL – which may last for a few weeks? And then after that, further decline towards and ICL?
Alex is too inconsistent. Sometimes he is right, sometimes wrong but when wrong, he stubbornly refuses to abandon his forecast. You have to be flexible to make money, in my opinion.
Hi Gary – Why is JNUG so strong? Based on the dollar rallying and gold dropping especially tomorrow shouldn’t money managers be a bit cautious ahead of FOMC? Do you expect a big down day tomorrow? Thanks
Despite the sell off of the big five and tech sector in general, the VIX remains at a low level indicating the put buyers are not paying large premiums for protection. The problem with using the VIX as an indicator is that it can remain at very low levels for months prior to a final market top.
I predict Gary is going to get hot again real soon. Either that, or he is gonna blow SMT to smithereens, there is no in between the way he is moving lately.
lol
JDST longer term charts are not looking good at all….it may bounce on the Fed report but then will likely continue downhill. Gold is looking like it will not go lower than 1200’s and maybe only 1230’s. So I have a feeling Alex P might get it right with the drop in gold from Fed and then back up again. Doesn’t seem to me that we’ll go below 1200 as Gary anticipates.
I don’t get it either. Metals are showing strength and miners are going UP.
” OLD TURKEY” DUMB CAVEMAN” just keeps making money while everyone else watches and is thankful they have dust ie Christian and Gary. WTF
I like what GDX is doing but I am not at break even yet.
bouncing time in nugt? A play coming in dust soon?
Whats happening in GDXJ is downright criminal. There should be lawsuits. First gold kept going up and GDXJ stayed down and now the opposite. Gary is it possible for GDXJ to revisit the May lows? I have brushed off GDXJ retesting the Dec lows now that looks impossible based on its strength
Robert: Everyone was warned that there would be disruptions while the rebalancing went on so I am not sure why you are so upset.
are gdx/gdxj performing dead cat bounces or are they actually (by a few weeks) anticipating the return of the metals after their ICL (1170 and then back up) ??
I have a feeling that today’s wiggle in the price of gold and GDX has to do with Sessions’ hearing. let see how they react after the testimony, which will probably end up being a nothing sandwich.
This is more than a “wiggle” its a huge run for the miners
Again, Robert. I am not talking about the GDXJ. Something else is at work there. I am talking about GDX and gold. There’s no huge run in either.
GDX looks like it wants to test the 200 day MA again to the upside, meanwhile the 50 day MA is converging with the 200 MA, and could cross over, giving us another “golden cross”. They don’t always re establish uptrends, but do enough of the time to garner the name.
Ya’all drinking too much Ayahuasca.
Agree Ralph – looks like GDX wants to tag the upper trendline again. After that – it will either have a big drop (as Gary predicts) or break the trendline…….my bet is on breaking that trendline and onto a summer high.
There are a number of miners exhibiting bullish signs.
For sure. IAG is looking very strong and broke out today.
Fundamentally, not entirely sure why GUSH is so strong when both NG and Crude have been weak to neutral. All I can say is that the charts tell the story (even though fundamentals do not) and they seem to show it’s likely on its way to ~$25-26 next. I’m going to see if I can get a pullback and then hop onboard.
Posted last Friday that GUSH was ready to launch Monday, Tuesday at the latest.
May have posted it Thursday, I forget now.
Nice call dboz – it certainly has boomed. How far do you think it’ll get? And any idea why it’s booming while NG/crude aren’t? I haven’t watched it long enough but it seems to be early to go up/down vs NG/crude?
Same range as you do, but I would keep a tight stop to lock in profits as I do not see it breaking out. Just a bounce out of oversold conditions. I think oil still has at least another $5 or more to drop. I have mentioned many times, oil is in trouble. There is simply too much of it. Fracking has created a huge imbalance in supply and the Middle East has no control over price. We are basically in a price war and while that is good for consumers, it is bad for banks and oil companies as the margins are tight.
Nice call dboz. I hope you made a few bucks.
ERX was up almost 2% today and then there was DUST, down almost 3%. Kinda puts a damper on the ‘chest thumping’ routine. Crude getting smacked down in after hours on a report of US crude inventories up but that may not mean much by tomorrow,
The dollar bounce has not been overwhelming. I expect we shall see further downside sooner than later although it has been Gary’s opinion that a multi-week rally is in store for the dollar. I don’t agree but I have been wrong before. A weaker dollar would have a bullish influence on gold.
We will see what the dollar does after tomorrow. I am starting to think the upside is limited. I am sitting here in wait and see mode. So many sources I view are all over the place. Gold to 1100, gold to 1500, it really is crazy right now. It is going to break big one way or the other. I would rather be late to the rally than early to the collapse. Done the collapse thing two or three times now and it is not fun. I am ultimately still slightly underwater.
Directional bias is irrational, and counterproductive.
Those anticipating a drop in gold or the miners, either now or after a short term rise, are going to be disappointed. Cycle analysis is not going to help anyone here, as there are too many bullish factors pointing to a sustained rise after a multi-month decline, including out-performance by the miners and out-performance by the juniors over the seniors.
Miners should sell off but I have to say that the cycles have been a failure in terms of time so far. Its nearly a month now since Gary has been calling for a drop and gdx gdxj are still near the highs. Meanwhile dust & jdst are being crushed
The market has been doing just about what I’ve said it was going to do. I warned you many times that it’s still too early to expect a big sell off just yet. We’re not deep enough into the daily cycle yet. The real selling pressure emerges at the very tail end of the cycle and that’s usually between day 30 and day 40.
Retail traders rarely have the patience to let a trade work. Why do you think so many people on here are day traders.
Those that listened are now going to reap the reward from the energy trade.
Heck we might as well just start waiting till day 30 of every cycle to get out of longs or wait for entering longs at day 40.
In case you haven’t figured it out by now, you need patience to make money in this business. If you don’t have it, or can’t learn it you have no hope of ever making any long-term gains in the market.
Good potential reward from the energy trade. Those who entered the trade with you or a bit later will be rewarded. Weird. Oil still at the starting gate, seniors way up. Great call on energy trade. There is no arguing with price.
Previous cycle duration was 40 days. Is it projectable into the future? Cycle duration can vary due to many factors that you enumerated in earlier posts.
“The”. energy trade? Which one of the several energy trades, or do we only count the latest one?
Haven’t seen any ending action in oil yet.
I agree, so glad I’ve stayed away from energy the last year or more, and the chart looks just as bad going forward. It can’t get out of bed, good thing the economy is so strong, or I would hate to think where oil could be.
this chart says it all, oil has been a stinkbomb for years now.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=w1
LABU Looks bullish ….
Or better still BTK for a bullish rising wedge…
One thing Gary is very good at is calling cycle tops and bottoms, AS THEY OCCUR.
While he is good at nailing stock market and gold turns, he has problems with currencies and oil. I suspect that is because both are highly manipulated and irrational moves are the norm.
I suspect the knee jerk reaction on tomorrows rate hike will be dollar down because that’s what happened the last two times. But look for the initial move to be faded either by the end of the day or before the week is finished.
My prediction for Mañana — This blog will light up like a bonfire with all the Goombas grumbling and snarling in disgust because good ol’ Gary just couldn’t get it right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goomba
🙂
>> Fast forward 1week later >>
Gary: Just like I predicted…
Goombas: Grumble grumble.
🙂
This guy lays out both scenarios nicely.
http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-hui-gold-ratio-is-coming-to-a-head?post=138632
I remember Robert asking Gary back in the first week of May if that could have been the ICL in gold? My concern right now is we are only 40% bullish according to Gary. Doesn’t that mean most bulls are on the wrong side waiting for the pullback?
Intraday bounce in gold looks corrective (i.e., volatility is contracting). Should bounce a little bit to a lower high (than last week) before reversing into the DCL.
USDJPY is just the opposite: Pulling back intraday in a corrective move, should not go below last week’s low before resuming its DC rally.
GDX — leading gold here (GDX has touched its 5 day SMA — gold will follow suit).
Strategy: Wait for 3 fractals to line up — the daily cycle, as well as the next 2 fractals below that, then short GDX and long USDJPY, so long as the caveats are not violated (NO higher high for miners, NO lower low for USDJPY). If they are violated, then back to the drawing board (nothing lost!). Otherwise, the USDJPY trade should be good for the rest of the daily cycle (or most of it). Short miners should make for about 2 day/swing trades.
I think this is a wave B — bear trap in GDX & gold; bull trap in USDJPY.
Still, there’s a chance to profit by grabbing the cheese and getting the heck out before the trap slams shut.
If you can line up intraday plus 2 fractals below that, you can profit from both traps: the bounce in miners and the more sustained move down into the DCL. I don’t think I’m quite that good — yet! So I’ll just wait for the shorting opportunity.
Also, I would NOT try playing both traps in USDJPY — those moves are too herky-jerky. You can see how USDJPY moved up for 49 hours last week: Plenty of twists and turns, but moving in one general direction.
I reckon I’ve done my homework for this week 🙂
Good luck all!
Gold moving between support at $1258 and resistance at $1272, not expecting much to change until rate decision later on..
Good point — I don’t think it will go all the way back to 1258,… but it could, maybe closer to 2pm, without disrupting the corrective bounce in play.
For now, I’m looking for intraday volatility to squeeze — then pop — then reverse & proceed downward for a tradeable short on GDX, long on USDJPY…
Goild,
Oh, your question:
Fractals and fibonaccis, my friend 🙂