One characteristic of all major bull markets is that they rally much further than anyone originally expects. One of the characteristics to watch for is the size of the consolidation preceding a major breakout. Examples of this phenomenon are examined in various markets – gold, DJIA, Nasdaq and silver.
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Well we knew the PPT would try to stop the selling pressure and they did a pretty good job of it Friday.
I was hoping for a correction over the next two weeks, but I’m not so sure we’re going to get it. The Fed may not take any chances with the Jackson Hole symposium coming up at the end of August.
1000 silver is too crazy, gary
So is printing 10 trillion dollars. 🙂
Silver is a very small market. It would only take a fraction of the money flowing out of the stock market into the silver market to push silver to $1000.
Keep in mind this would occur during the final days of the bubble and likely we would see price jump from 500 to 1000 in less than a week before then crashing back to earth.
I agree that the PPT stopped the correction on Friday cause investorslike me are short and getting screwed. Those whack jobs are ruining the markets. I was reading that the FED uses certain words to trigger buying by the puters when ever they want the market to go up. Apparently, they know exactly how the computers are programmed so Yellen just needs to say a few choice words and voila, the puters kick into buying mode. What a racket.
How much money must you lose before you finally stop fighting the PPT?
They have a printing press for heavens sake. You can’t win that battle… until the bubble is complete and finally pops.
We are nowhere near a final top yet. The market is barely 20% above the 200 day moving average and I have seen no sign yet that the public is piling into the market like they do at bubble tops.
Right now the only market that is starting to see large public participation is the crypto currencies. That’s the market that is at risk of a crash, not stocks.
“I was hoping for a correction over the next two weeks but I’m not sure we’re gonna get it”
Seriously Gary.. if I could count the number of times you’ve said this over the past couple of years I would be rich a man right now.
This is a ‘buy & hold’ or ‘buy the dips’ type of environment — how many times do we need to say it?!
I would like to buy the dip. We did buy the dip in the Nasdaq, but really haven’t gotten much of an opportunity in the S&P.
1-2% is dip in this market. 5% is a gift. 10%–a back up the truck, mortgage the double-wide moment. 20% isn’t ever going to happen in nominal USD terms again.
In terms of the DOW/GOLD ratio, what is your prediction? A 1:1 ratio at $10K gold would be the same as predicting that the DOW will fall to that level. Also, what about the GOLD/SILVER price ratio? Your projections imply a ratio of 10-30. Haven’t you predicted a lower GOLD/SILVER ratio in the past?
The gold silver ratio made it to 33 during the last C wave.
20 doesn’t seem out of the question during a final bubble.
10,000 also doesn’t seem out of the question on the Dow. 11750 was the previous bull market top in 2000. If the Dow generates a bubble maybe somewhere around 40,000-50,000 it wouldn’t be unusual for the bubble to pop and lose 60-80% of it’s value. That would take the Dow back down to the 2000 level.
I can hardly wait for silver to reach $500 or better yet, $1000. I am going to start stocking up on toilet paper cause i figure it will sell it for $30 per roll when silver hits that $1000 mark. I would stock up on bread too cause it should easily hit 150 bucks a loaf but then I would need to buy freezers and install wind turbines for free power to keep the bread from going bad. Nope, better to stick with the ass wipe idea folks and buy silver for backup.
Reply ↓
I”l bet none of you would believe my real first name is Robert.
This board is dead this morning . I am done. Check back later to see if I have some tips for you guys for the upcoming week.
I still expect a rough few months for the SM. Holding TVIX for now. In a good position at the exact bottom, may as well let it ride.
Crude 59.0
Nat Gas 31.0
Gold 45.0
Silver 46.0
Platinum 47.0
Palladium 88.0
Copper 85.0
The 10 biggest silver producers:
https://www.thebalance.com/the-10-biggest-silver-producers-2340234
Yep…from $500 to $1000 silver……
I consider $200 a more realistic target if silver will break $50.
Anyway 200…500….1000 are all very high targets,it would be VERY interesting to see if silver will top before or after silver stocks .
Shit, I would be happy from 17 to 20.. 😉
I would like to get quick, good, much money soon.
Why wait till a dream silver$1000?
Who is up for DUST within a few days?
Good evening all. The marker I will be watching this week is 1234 gold, will be trouble if it breaks and holds, something to watch if you think gold is going to the moon,
MS
And the marker for silver is no other than 16.0. Any below and hold is also trouble, silver to 1000 may have to wait Biggy, stick to TP.
Nite all
MS
50% PM miners – 50% Cash
I don’t discriminate industry anymore. I do not particularly prefer one sector over another, knowing all sectors go through cycle. Currently I am holding cash on sideline, ready to deploy a moment’s notice. US dollar is doomed.
US Dollars until now stayed strong in spite of trillion dollars of printing because they were done in coordination and in competition among all central bankers. And a lot of foreign illicit moneys were flowing into the United States.
However, these trends have stopped. Now moneys are actually flowing out from the United States seeking a greater returns. That translates into tightening money supply in the US stock markets and weakening of US Dollar.
Ed: How do you know money is ” flowing out from the United States seeking a greater returns”? Do you have a source for that information?
Warning – There will not be no parabolic bubble phase for NASDAQ unless there are going to be Zimbabwe style, “whatever it takes” money printing.
No booms for any hard or soft commodities.
Weakening dollars will only help money metals, but that too not go extreme high, may be stuck somewhere 1,300-1,400 range unless reckless money printing. It will be “cluster- fuck-flation” where deflationary and inflationary aspects both exist together, where economic activities will be deflationary while monetary fiscal governmental policies will be inflationary.
In such environment only opportunistic trading do well.
Don,
US and Canada real estate markets reached peak. No more Chinese money coming in.
Japan and Korea are big in Crypto-currencies. Now Crypto are in competitions with US stock markets.
Temporary halts on monetary easing by FED.
US stock booms are debts fueled stock buy backs and now insiders are cashing in.
EEM doing a lot better than US.
Those are some signs.
What kind of a day would it be today for gold?
USD is threatening to bounce.
Is there any indicator to gauge the day before the open?
ED,
Why playing PM miners only?
Why not adding diversity to the portfolio?
I am all in cash an other than day trading and perhaps an ocassional swing trade, do not know what in the world to do.
Goild,
You know exactly what to do.
Good morning everybody.
Are all of you convinced, that the gold ICL is in already?
I’m still not sure about that..
My guess:
gold <1200, silver <15, and new lows for the miners… early in August
we'll see.
Zkot
Good evening since we are on the same side of the world.
Yes, I know what to do and that is to wait for a right setup and pull the trigger.
Easy said.
Too many options.
Some of us are betting that gold miners still need to fall in view of a usd bounce.
If so I will get into gdxj or gdx.
In retrospect I shoul have plunged all my accounts when oil went to $42.
Still wonder what to do, time is passing and cash is losing value.
I hope you are doing well.
Yes, tie up that right arm in a sling.
Time frame has increased from a weekend to a full week, due to ur stubbornness!
(And I should know — I’m more stubborn than most!)
Cash losing value over time as bills mount faster than cash grows?
Welcome to my world!
I might end up joining a commune in order to regroup!
The real question for you is:
Does ur crowd sourcing of market analysis actually work better than a coin flip?
Gotta love my old Romanian Econometrics prof. We crunched far too many equations in that class for my liking. Still, love the way he brought every single quantitative model back home to the key question:
Does all that math and stats we just crunched give us better predictive value than a coin flip?
Every single time, every single equation. Crunch, crunch, crunch, for weeks on end. Then, in summary, does it give us a better result than a coin flip?
… and you know you can make money with a coin flip, 50-50 win-loss percentages… if you keep the losses under control.
Seriously, just enter the challenge.
“I hate false breakouts. They disgust me, and the entire community despises them!
That’s why for the entire duration of the past week, we’ve been checking and confirming this rally from every angle, and I can tell you that the mother of all short squeezes is upon us. ”
https://www.streetwisereports.com/pub/na/17578
That is it!
The final undercut is coming!
Final undercut in What?
Nada,
Just kidding, though I am thinking gold going down.
Oh lol,yes.. when we see “mother of all squeezes” and silver to 1k, it’s time to be weary. Gary calling the ICL is also a red flag, when it has NOT been confirmed. Yes I believe there is a real possibility, but until gold closes above 1298ish, then it’s simply speculating.
What kind of a day is today?
Up or down for gold?
My gut tells me is a down day.
Tell your gut not to worry about lunch money. You have the smart money on your side. COT is bullish. Lunch money is coming.
People believe bitcoin will go to 10,000 but no one can believe that silver will go to $1000…..
i sort of believe in that
But nevertheless I will follow whatever the candles say.
If they say up then it is up, if they say it is down then I will go down.
I will not argue but follow.
The trend is clearly up for the last three weeks.
The large multi year trend has been up since December of 2015.
you refer to gold or SM??
Gary,
It would be a 66 bagger.
How often do they come?
Quite frankly silver at $1000 is possible but realistically it would mean that the US economy went down the tubes and a terrible inflation took place.
That would mean 1M would be worth say $50K.
When Jim Rickards says gold going to 10k he always means in todays dollar value not tomorrows. I think Gary has the same approach otherwise mentioning a number is useless.
$1000 silver? Nope, I am out at 100 haha …
But please, please, if you do not have significant experience playing the market, do not go blindly and put your hard earned money on silver.
Gary, has said that almost no one makes money in a bull market, why should you?
Good day,
As everyone is bullish on indu, thought I would post my reversal marker which is at 21600, if indu goes below and stay below that would be time to short. very similiar to the tsla , the reversal marker was 360, it went below( short) now it is backtesting. Do the same on the indu if it happens.
Shorting is a great way to make money quick , you can capture gains that took 5 years in months, but but you got to have a system,
But you have to watch what Gary calls undercut, look what happened to dust at 29.50, if you don;t believe it is significant look at a 5 min and see how many hits it took to get in under at circus day.
Will it go back over 29.50 I thinks so.
MS
My experience is that it’s very tough to make money on the short side. Markets go down differently than they go up. Bottoms can happen in the blink of an eye, and you lose much, or all of your gains in a matter of days if you miss the bottom.
I would point out this is exactly what has happened to your DUST position. You had some very nice gains but missed the bottom and gave everything back and then some.
Gary, as you say it is not a week long bingo game, these are markers which minimize your risk I am not at all
at risk with dust, Having that mindset that you can;t make money shorting could limit you from a big payday.
Dusty may surprise you it may not , thats what my markers will tell me.
If indu does drop below I would short big time.
MS
You are at huge risk. You have a 100% position in JDST. If the market continues to go up you will get wiped out.
Since this is a bull market, it is going to go up. The only question is will there be a counter trend correction to allow you to make some money.
In my opinion the counter trend already happened.
Gary, you are making an assumption that I don’t bail, the reversal back up over 29.50 should happen quickly, if it does not gold/miners will take off and jnug will be my friend.
MS
Has Mabel factored in the COT report?
Sir Butch, Mabel Marker is a graghic program, it does not care what cots says. it just identified reversals which I stated earlier for gold and silver, The market has not decide yet which way.
MS
MS
Silver is up, gold down, it will be interesting to see how the divergence resolves.
Gold did exactly what I said it had to do. At the very minimum gold needed one failed daily cycle. It did that when it briefly dropped below the May low.
It also had to generate at least an ABC correction. It also did that by bouncing briefly into the June 23rd top before completing the decline.
Instead of getting lost in the day to day wiggles like most of the posters here. Pull up a long term weekly chart of gold and GDX with the 200 week moving average. It’s pretty clear what is going on. But most people can’t see the turn because they are trapped in a short term mentality.
A lot of things have been said about gold. At this point, we need confirmation. We should be getting close to breakout or breakdown.
For those interested here are the usd markers
upside markers 102.28, 133.0, 188
this is for you gary
downside markers 82. 65, 71
remember if 93.61 is taken out and holds , you could be in trouble gary
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What do you mean? I don’t trade currencies.
Forgot to ask yesterday when the results were posted for contest. Gary, so for folks on the blog – you are able to see all of our trades for the contest, but how do we confirm your trades? Where are the checks and balances?
My trades are posted in real time, any sub can confirm that.
Hi Gary,
With this upward burst this morning – I’m showing the Monthly Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking the long term trend line since 2009?
Weak data out of the US is a reoccurring theme and making a dollar bounce difficult. Currencies are wacky to say the least.
Good day Nada, Once the weak data gets out of the way, the shorts will get smothered, 93.60 is a reversal marker, they are protecting this. They do not want the usd to rise but the day will come.
MS
Well we are close to confirming one way or the other in gold. DUST is close to breaking down and GDX close to breaking out – who will be the winner? Gold has had a very nice bounce out of a new daily cycle (or possible ICL) and from experience, gold goes to the extremes in both directions. It will take some BIG selling in gold to stop BTD mentality. Gold bugs are relentless in their belief gold should be trading at 10k and will die trying to prove they are correct. Interesting times.
MS
Your marker system has yet to produce winning results. GDX appears to be in a stealth bull market sucking bears like you in.
Are you still married to JDST?
Deflation is a myth. It’s not “different this time” .
Every time governments print too much money it causes inflation. Right now the inflation is manifesting in the stock market and real estate markets. But it will leak into the commodity markets as well in due time.
GDX getting close to breaking through..
I noted last week that the miners had already broken through their yearly cycle down trend line.
I gave up on the miners breaking the December lows a couple of weeks ago.
Gary, I don’t think that was very clear. You had it both ways as a real analyst 🙂 saying may or may not. I’m glad you are now saying Gold and miners are more likley up and up.
How could I possibly be saying maybe or maybe not when I have an open position in the metal portfolio long?
I’m not like other analysts that give you both sides of the trade and then always claim to be correct. I either make a trade or I don’t.
Notice none of the other newsletter writers have risked exposing themselves by entering the challenge.
Yes, correct, only said you had it both ways for weeks, but as you mentioned you are now long and I’m glad you are saying Gold and miners are more likley up and up and no more ICL in sight.
“I gave up on the miners breaking the December lows a couple of weeks ago.” Gary, why not just man up and admit that you were wrong?
Your final gold bearish gold video, in a long series of gold bearish articles, was on July 3, when you admonished the gold bulls for their bullish bias. You expected the bottom to occur 4 to 8 weeks later. As it turned out, the bottom was only a few days and $15 away. Most were out, or loading up on DUST, waiting for your signal. Sentiment never did reach the oversold levels you were so sure was necessary.
Isn’t that what I’m saying?
I don’t think the miners are going to drop below the December low.
I think gold has completed its ICL. It’s why I went long a couple of weeks ago.
You went long “a couple of weeks ago” ? I do remember you saying that you took out a “small” position in NUGT in order to play a possible miner bounce but I don’t recall you ever stating that the DEC low was off the table. Did I miss that?
Yes you did miss that JJ and you wanna know why?
Because you’re NOT a subscriber and aren’t (subsequently) privy to everything that goes on behind the SMT curtain. If Gary delivered all of his wisdom and market insight to us free of charge ON A SILVER PLATTER, then what would be the point of a subscription?? Common sense.
christian, are you a subscriber? are you trying to suggest that Gary made a public post on july 3rd but was telling his subscribers something else? i doubt that very much.
I’m not trying to suggest anything Roadrunner; you’re doing that all on your own, Lol!
I also don’t recall Gary ever stating the miners taking out the Dec. lows was no longer being considered. I do recall that I said I would be the first to congratulate him if that were to happen.
One would think Gary would want to be clear where he stands for the sake of enticing readers to buy a subscription. Does that not make sense?
If you want my real time calls you will have to get at least a monthly subscription.
The Dow is breaking out of its bull market channel. This is how the bubble phase begins.
Maybe is a bubble maybe not, I found trades like QQQ, TQQQ, UPRO etc really dangerous with stock at the top. You can end up holding some huge losers if this “bubble” assumption will prove wrong.
With the Dow and the Nasdaq breaking out of their bull market channels there is no indication that I’m wrong or that “this time will be different”.
If the market deflates then it’s going to take gold down with it just like it did in 2009.
I’m not sure why people think a crash in the stock market would be good for gold. History says otherwise. Deflation takes everything down.
All that air stressed words of metals up will vanish as soon as the dollar move up and it’s about to do that, I’m out 50% with profit, better wait imao.
AXU starting its march to $4?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p62153257530&a=537270048&listNum=1
Dollar has once again put in a lower low.
Did anyone note that Bigdaddy is up on SQQQ, SOXS, up big on SLV, up on short NFLX ? Only FB has to crash a little further and then i will be kicking everyone’s ass in the contest.
You aren’t in the contest. To qualify you have to send me your trades including percentage and most importantly exits.
One day doesn’t prove anything. If the market turns back up and you miss the turn then you will just rack up another series of losses trying to short this bull market.
BD: Your dog is lucky maybe?
Nice work Bigd but Gary could be right and your profits good disappear pretty quick. Be careful.
Trying to call a dollar bottom has become an exercise in futility.
lol, I understand why Gary gave up. 200wma is the next obvious bounce spot. I wonder how long ECB and BOJ are going to let their currencies move up without some type of fight. Both central banks have rolled over and my god, think what happens if the ECB actually grows a pair and raises interest rates.
Yes. I’ve given up on trying to spot a bottom. The intermediate cycle is now 65 weeks long. That is never going to happen naturally. So I no longer expect cycle or sentiment forces to work on the currencies.
At this point who knows when we will get a bounce.
I there’s going to be a crash anywhere it’s most likely to occur in the dollar.
Goild,
I have mostly played PM because that is what I know best and I consider it is least amount of risk involved.
Yes, I said. LEAST AMOUNT OF RISK. 🙂
I like miners but I tend to play ETF and Streaming mining companies like RGLD, FNV, SAND, WPM.
What will happen to Gold when the Greenback rubber band SNAPS I wonder 🙂
Christian, we have been hearing that for a while.
It’s not the DXY per se, as much as it is $USDJPY that governs gold.
And even $gold:$xjy ratio is going to break down imminently (within the next 6-12 months IMO). Reason I am saying this if that if you look at the month chart, since 2012 the ratio has gotten tighter and tighter to the point now where it is at 20+ year low volatility in the ratio based on the monthly bollinger bands (20,2). Those bollingers are going to start expanding again as they can’t really get much tighter from here. Something dramatic is going to happen.
The big five are all down, oil stocks are down, tech stocks down and the S&P has barely moved. Frustrating for the bears.
What will happen to Gold when Greenback rubber band SNAPS and go limp in 80s. 🙂
There’s a D*ck joke in there somewhere 🙂
Not a SMT sub anymore since today. I didn’t renew my SMT subscription.
My experience: good reports, learned good things, but ended on red thanks to some call like JNUG 23 last October and ERX trade I still holding.
Lately recover a bit with DUST and JNUG trades, but still in the red working my way towards break even.
Overall good learning experience. I may re-subscribe later if Gary would offer a promotion or if price would go back to $200.
Why didn’t you stop out when gold went below 1275?
I explained that stop very clearly. It took a long time for gold to get above 1275. A move back below would be bad news , and it was.
If you would have you would be way up on your metals position.
Gary, I did, but was already in too big already. No blaming you, but shattered my confidence in the trades called. Even you reset everything at the time 🙂
Like I said, great experience, the learning experience worth every dollar for the subscription, I have no doubt I’ll recover by the end of this year, and I would likely re-subscribe for the right price.
Don’t look now, but the EURUSD is trying to break above the 200wma. Hard to understand why investments in Europe would be ideal. Immigration will destroy the landscape and will create a huge demand on resources and government services.
If the dollar is in a bear market, and I am not so sure that it is, would it be likely to take out it’s 2016 lows below 92?
Wow, my Jdst down a whopping 11 cents today amidst thr mother of all short squeezes and the SS High Hopes silver rocketship launching to the $1000 moon.
Better dump that JDST garbage right now.
Many of the silver miners as well as GDXJ are fighting a battle at the 100 DMA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p91771593149&a=537278591&listNum=1
PPT working VERY HARD this morning.
NASDAQ DOWN
S&P FLAT
DOW UP
What is that telling you.
They are working on smallest number of companies. 30 companies in DOW.
They can’t do that with a much broader NASDAQ companies.
They are also suppressing Gold price to hide Dollar weakness.
Least amount of money with greatest result.
I guess we can say “Biggest Bang for the money.”
Anyone saw Jeff Sessions in this morning’s Cabinet meeting?
“Anyone saw Jeff Sessions in this morning’s Cabinet meeting?”
No what are you referring to? The GOP should be ashamed of themselves. They control the house and senate and can not get anything done. Why? Traitors like John McCain fill the ranks. They are so blind to their dislike of Trump that they will destroy a nation for simple spite. What a mess.
Sadly, the US has become the best example of why democracy does not work where every citizen gets a vote including those on welfare. How many Democrats would be city mayors, governors or members of congress if only those that paid income taxes were allowed to vote?
We keep doing the same thing over and over and expect different result.
The whole thing is absolutely corrupt and so obvious now.
It’s transparently clear they care nothing about the people – and are just trying to inflate their friends in the insurance companies regards healthcare.
You have all this Trump-Russia total BS dominating MSN – Meanwhile Crooked as all hell Hilary and Wasserman-Schultz, with their rag-head Pakstani computer moles, hacking and cheating the whole system —NOT A PEEP ABOUT IT ON THE MSN
And MCcain —- Dude is 80 Years old with terminal brain cancer – and still wants to pick a fight with the Russians!!!
Kookville!!!
You’ve got to be kidding?
They are protecting the average mans retirement account. The average man doesn’t need another 2009 to wipeout his 401K.
Plus they are preventing a recession by keeping the stock market inflated. The average man doesn’t fare well during recessions.
Good points ED. The media, as well as the public, tend to focus on the DOW for their daily snapshot of what the markets are doing and it made another new high today. Trump made it all happen, according to him, anyway.
I keep saying we don’t have free markets anymore. That’s why it’s dangerous to short.
The euro is not bouncing off the 200 WMA. In my last article I noted how the 200 didn’t act as support for the dollar, or in this case it may not act as resistance for the euro.
I am tempted to buy into oil stocks but considering how poorly ERX and GUSH have done as crude has gone up considerably, i think it’s not time just yet. Stay tuned and follow my lead on oils.
Just join the challenge and we’ll see if you actually make money over a significant period of time.
Son, I don’t need to play games in order to prove anything to anyone. I post all my trades and exact prices here within a few minutes of a trade. I play the markets for fun and participate on this blog to help out others.
Oh yes you do. Until you make real time calls including percentages you are just blowing hot air like all the other blow hards on here.
BTW none of those blow hards are even vaguely close to the top positions in the challenge.
Got some real competition there Gary;)
How many contestants went long metals on the 7th?
Anyone who spends all day posting here is obviously looking for attention.
I agree with Gary, shut up and join the contest otherwise you’re like all the newsletters who claim brilliance but can’t prove it.
Gary, your best calls over the years have been on the overall stock market. Your worst has been oncurrencies.
Which is exactly why I won’t trade currencies.
They no longer respond to cycle or sentiment forces. I think they are primarily driven by central bank interventions and since I have no way to predict those it’s best to just stay away from currencies.
Dollar Index broke 93 handle convincingly.
USDJPY @110.35
And Gold price still down $2 from 1270.
How crazy is that?
I guess PPT is DUST’s friend. 🙂
Energy is down today,
Good day to take a position.
Saudi and Venezuela will make ripples.
All soft commodities are down.
All hard commodities except gold are up.
That tells me we are in deflationary market and we are in Safe Haven play.
Weaker dollar should be good for US stock markets in nominal USD terms.
I can’t imagine how WTI is down when USD is down with background noises from Venezuela and Saudi.
Are they trying to paint Dollar follows Oil?
Shoot…
That explains why gold is down.
Dollar follows Oil.
Not the other way around.
NATURAL GAS has one scary looking weekly chart. We should get a bottom sometime in August . UGAZ holders will get destroyed until then.
I think it is safe to say there is no UPCOMING energy BULL MARKET. Bear market, carry on.
Hey BD, are you still holding BKX? It’s at .235 today , 4 million shares, 50 times it’s average volume.
Nope, sold BKX at a loss when I got depressed and sold everything. Another example of how I was right and lost money…. not happenning anymore.
Stubborn determination will result in a very large loss at some point.
I tend to think that the gold bears are setting up for a big loss.
ED,
Thank you for your comments. I am thinking of getting in the PM and miners.
And I agree ne gets into what one is familiar with.
It is late around here.
Five hours of hard work on only +$200 in my cash account!?
Though in my swing account I added $1600 🙂 via JDST at the first JNUG tip.
I am going to sleep.
Good trading to all.
This appears as a bad day, double JNUG top, gold down, it will end likely bad.
Hopefully gold will sink deeply.
GDX right up against its declining 50 WMA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p41455058551&a=537297616&listNum=1
Does Lucy pull the football away from Charlie Brown yet again?
Watching gold price action today: https://youtu.be/KkGTB8ESMCM
so fanny … re-send it to my wife… with volume on…
This could push oil prices up to $60 in a hurry – see latest article by Ambrose Evans Pritchard
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/31/venezuelas-oil-industry-breaking-point-us-tightens-noose/
ERX up today … may break even soon after all
Natty gas just got clubbed like a baby seal over nothing what so ever. Over 5.25% straight down. It’s like a rogue wave hit the Natty.
GLD GDX GDXJ sentiment has achieved excessive optimism to the extreme. I really don’t put too much emphasis on the sentiment in this type of environment. It can stay overbought for weeks or months if FOMO kicks in. I see COTs increased their shorts on Friday by a significant amount. However, I put zero faith in trying to price action and COT reports; The dollar was extreme BLEES rating and has been not stop selling.
Bear or Bull in gold, it certainly needs to correct or there is not going to be much energy left for a sustained move through upcoming heavy resistance. Throw that in with the excessive sentiment and the lackluster response to the non stop dropping of the dixie and gold looks a risky trade long or short.
Well regardless of where sentiment is, the fact of the matter is the miners have been absolute garbage relative to gold over the last few months.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p54807081353&a=537314021&listNum=1
Maybe you will get your wish and they collapse when gld tops.
Yeah its odd for sure. Why I always play GLD calls/puts for gold direction and will only short miners. When gold tops, I have no idea. It has been a very nice bounce.
We are now hitting my target levels on the dollar…….. 3yr cycle bounce is almost here. Hey Gary, I am up 18% as of todays exit trade. You forgot about me…….ha…ha!
@desertsun999 . You looking for the 200wma or do you have another target for suspected 3year cycle low in USD? Cheers and GL.
Welcome back desertsun….where have you been?
Today is the biggest gift you will get in AMZN for the next 100 years. BTFD!!!!
I am saying this semi-sarcastically of course (it might be able to get down to the 20 WMA). But cynical investing has been 100% effective since 2012.
BD: BKX just hit 27 cents, up 31% today and 58% from a few weeks ago.
Now 28 cents. Please don’t rub it in. It hurts to have sold something at a loss only to see it soar later. What is going on with that one? Any news? Do you think it is still a buy?
BD: No news that I can find but anything up 36% in one day on big volume has something going on. What attracted me to it in the first place was the huge insider buying. Maybe if it backs off a little, it might be a buy. I really can’t say for sure.
Don, good call on BKX. You have been holding that one for some time. I had it once but sold it when oil looked like it was headed back down. Can’t win them all.
Wow, roller coaster ride for NATTY GAS. Whipsaw continues in energy. Oil going to take a plunge next.
It is incredible how the market can be held up with deteriorating internals but we have seen this before.
Good Day , Been a fun day with the usd playing possum, Is tesla leading the way for the rest of the market, might be the topping pattern of the spx looking the same. Oh well ,confusion abound. to the moon. I can feel the band getting tighter, place your bets. Don.t think the bingo challenge will be close at all there is going to be a big gap.
Still in the weeds
MS
Hey MS. Amazing to see DUST green on a day like today with the dollar action. Gary, are your leveraged positions green or red from your entry last week? I know you can not divulge your entries and exits for free, but I am just curios if they are above or below. To be honest, I don’t know what to expect going forward – where are beyond the middle range, so the risk is increasing long or short. Cheers
Hello Nada. I posted all my markers for gold and silver, somewhere in here, for dust it just has to get back above my marker of 29.50. just look at a 5 min chart and you can see the importance of 29.50. Still rockin the jdst and nothing for me has changed. you might witness a flood of shorts if it gets above 29.50 and holds, increasing in wave size at it ramps up.
MS
Huge reversal candle in AXU today. What started out as a promising day turned out to be a high volume pump and dump. I think the bears could be about to get their wish.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p46195371321&a=537331815&listNum=1
You are gong to base that off one small company? Hey I am all for cheaper gold, but just curious why you picked that company.
It’s been one of the stronger silver mining stocks by far. Can’t see it doing poorly and the rest of the sector just rocketing up from here.
Thanks for the info. I don’t follow, but was most curious as why you mentioned that specific stock. It feels like its going to be frustrating for both the bears and bulls.
No doubt. Whipsaw city today.
It’s possible August will be yet another narrow range month. I’ll definitely be a bit surprised, but it would not be shocking at all. lots of room for headfakes up and down galore on the monthly charts. I will say this though, slv closed July with a hammer candle, which to me suggest there will be follow through to the upside in the next couple of months.
GDX was a disappointment today but I am keeping my 800 shares.
Begging to build my long term position in miners today.
Bought 13800 shares of B2Gold Corp (BTG) at 2.59 average
Bought 10000 Shares of Kincross Gold Corp (KGC) at 4.16
Had order for Hecla Mining Corp (HL) 10,000 shares at 5.32 but did not fill any of the order. Will try again on it if price gets below 5.35
These are logh term holds and not short term or swing trades.
GDX, GDXJ, and HUI all exceeded Friday’s high and did not drop below Friday’s low and the volume was unremarkable. Today was just a minor down day. The miners have a date with higher numbers, in my opinion.
I sold 500 SLV (half my stake) at the close for 15.91 and bought 200 shares of SQQQ at 28.48 (for a total of 500 shares). A dump is in store for the QQQ. No doubt about that.
FB was down some. It’s a big turd just begging to be flushed down the toilet and should be shorted. My current stake is 700 shares (short) at an average of 167.20. Advertisers are questioning it’s value for their money. Also, my Netflix short is profitable and is definitely going down further. They are spending too much money .
Friends, feel free to ride on my coat tails of success and stay tuned for further money making ideas. I may be on later before bed.
Bigdaddy, you must ride on the dash when you are in the car – you are a saint for letting us have access to your trade ideas.
Just got back from JCPenny. The wife & I bought 250.00 worth of sweaters for 7.50, averaged about a 1.50 a sweater…..ha…ha. Last day they are open. Now that’s what I call savings!
Nada, I am looking at the monthly charts on $USD. Pretty nice resistance @ 93 to 92.50 plus it would set up the head & shoulder monthly bounce for the dollar. Makes sense to me……….we’ll see. Been taking it easy for a while. The million dollar question right now is whether the PM’s are going to rally with the dollar in my opinion. I hope you guys are making some money!
Gary
“Seriously, just enter the challenge.”
Might I remind you that you and I are already on for “the challenge”
See you in January, 2022, and we’ll see where gold and silver are at that juncture.
One difference between you and me is, I don’t care if I’m wrong about that prediction. For me, it’s just a guideline, and it’s fluid, just as markets are fluid and dynamic. It’s a soft prediction. Despite its softness, there’s a very good chance it is accurate.
For you, on the other hand, it’s a hard prediction: Rock solid and static. But that doesn’t mean that’s how it will play out.
As for your trading challenge, that may be interesting, if it involves development of good trading habits, which include calculating risk and setting appropriate stop loss accordingly. But it does not, which seems to be hard and fast. Likewise, trading on one’s own time frame, not somebody else’s. With metals, many if not most of the lucrative setups occur within one trading day, at least for the time being.
The real question is: Why are you personally administering this yourself?
Surely you’ve got a competent Administrative Assistant who handles this type of task for you?
Gary,
That GDX yearly trendline looks downright random!
Gary says PPT is working for us. That’s craziest shit I ever heard.
The Silver market may have lifted up her skirt a bit today. SIL had a monthly close above its resistance line today. We have tested that line for the last three months so todays close could be meaningful. If we test that trendline this month and bounce it could be a great buy in point. This may also be a leading indicator as to what the PM’s are going to do in relation to the dollar bounce. This is worth watching closely IMO.
The large spec’s on the $USD are net short now. The multi-month bounce for the dollar is coming…..SOON.
As a PM investor there is only one decision that you need to make. ARE THE PM’s GOING TO RALLY WITH THE DOLLAR OR DECLINE. This is where weekly & monthly trendlines and MA’s are going to come into play in determining direction.
Why was my JDST up today with all of this incredibly positive sentiment that it’s up up up to the moon time for the precious metals? Seems like something isn’t adding up.
PPT doesn’t give shit about your I R A accounts. They only work for elite criminals who gets all the 0 % free loans.
BigDaddy,
Do not let euphoria mislead you.
Euphoria and overconfidence is very bad in this business.
RonL,
Nice to know you are still around.
I know you will make very good money.
Thanks for posting your trades.
Thanks Goild
I might be a little early on my move into the PM’s again but it sure looks to me PM’s look very close to a major breakout up with a run of 2 to 3 months at least.
Time will tell. No stop loos on my buys but if it starts to get too ugly and the momentum turns down then will have to reevaluate. For mow will continue to add to my PM position at any correction. Not doing any leverage plays this time around. Trying to pick some good companies in the mining sector with proven growth and reserves. Such as B2Gold. After their 2nd QTR report before the market open that showed 1% above forecast with a slight downward projection for rest of year it got beat up. Tried to pick where I thought it would stop the fall but got in 5 cents to early. Will see what tomorrow brings but these are not day trades.
Bigdaddy I hope your Facebook short works, looking at the NASDAQ futures tonight, it does not look likely.
Also, Facebook advertisers aren’t “questioning its value for money”, Ad Revenue per user and ARPU grew yet again this quarter with both daily and monthly users growing as well.
GC December contracts are trading at $1,275 all day today.
It’s just Investing.com using August contract price of $1,269.
I was surprised no one here supposedly well versed in gold experts not uttered a single word about it.
So you guys all laughed when I was scratching my head all day today.
1274.5 rollover contract
When Investing.com rolls over to December contact price quote?
Anyone knows when CNBC rolled to December contract quote? Time if it was today?
So can I safely assume all gold miners share prices will reflect gold price 1,275 instead of 1,268.
Some strange stuffs I noticed in investing.com.
Investing.com uses incomprehensible previous day close price quotes for gold.
Previous close quotes changes depending on what time in evening you looking at it. Very confusing and it appears to be intentional. Sometime it does not update previous day close price and uses 2 day old one. I think that happened just past Monday.
Only reasons I am using Investing.com are it is free and using real time. But it is very intrusive and I am sure it uses and sell users’ stock portfolio or click data.
Anyone knows a better website that is free and gives out real time price quotes?
Depends on what you are trading. For forex and spot gold, I use Trade Interceptor. They provide a free demo account with realtime data. You can have your desktop app and mobile app sync the same charts – very sweet. However, I use tda as my broker and they provide free real time data for most assets.