184 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – RUNAWAY MARKET

  1. Gary Post author

    10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question when we get to the really nutty phase of the bubble.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’ve been saying for over a year now that when the Nasdaq breaks out above the old 2000 highs it would easily go to at least 10,000.

          The bigger the consolidation the bigger the rally once the breakout is completed.

          1. Anthonyo

            No Hoopla zone…

            Anthonyo
            October 19, 2017 at 8:02 am
            Set up complete for a deep bear market flash crash (think 1987)….1800 SPX is a piece of cake; 1500 SPX cannot be ruled out.

            OK.

  2. Ralph Hill

    I think you better clarify that you’re talking about $NDX and not the chart in this blog post ($INDU).

  3. jacob2

    “The Dow walks alone”. Can’t remember where i heard it but todays action brought it to mind. NAZ barely moved but the Dow charged ahead lead by IBM and large caps. Maybe it was Granville talking about market TOPS. We’re very late in the game.

    1. Gary Post author

      Just like I’ve been predicting these people will try to call a top every other day all the way up and they’ll miss the entire rally.

      I tend to think we’re moving into another bubble, but there is also the possibility that we are very early in the game just like we were in 95. Remember that’s when Greenspan gave his irrational exuberance speech. Many had been calling for a top for years yet the market still had a long ways to go before topping 5 years later.

      We are still very early in this 7 year cycle. Not even 2 years into it yet. Even if the cycle were to left translate we should still have at least 8 months to a year before any kind of major top.

      This is a very good video. Chris gets it. One of the few I might add.

      1. Steffmeister

        That is exactly what the Swedish EW is saying πŸ™‚ US indicies bullish move into 2019.

        I am glad that you support the EW ideas Gary πŸ˜›

        https://youtu.be/DvhRLA-7Nog?t=938

        I do not understand why all the focus are on expensive assets like the US, I am trying to buy cheap assets as Gold&Silver + resource rich countries like brics.

        My Russian ETF is up 24% since July. India has a bright future with good demographics. US indicies has more steam left but for how long?

  4. Gary Post author

    If we get a dip over the next few days one has to use it to buy. Vertical markets don’t give one many chances to get it. If we get one don’t blow it.

    1. Steffmeister

      I agree for a while atleast.

      I am very skeptical about the SM! Long&Short bondrates are very close just as before the financial crisis.

      Why bother when we are at the fifth and final wave up!?!? Yes maybe 2-3 minor waves left but that is about it imo

  5. earthkitten

    Warren Buffet says stock are cheap compared to historical valuations.
    Compared to the top in 2007 to Mid 2017, the market went nowhere.
    We have just recently broken out. This market is going higher. Much higher.
    Thanks Gary. I’m buying stocks & drowning out all the noise.

    1. Steffmeister

      Yeah good luck with that attitude! What would happen if the bondmarket gets into trouble? Centralbanks will flush the toilet and introduce a deflationary spike down in most assets, to put the money into the “right pockets”. Politicians however wants inflation …

  6. earthkitten

    Let me see Warren Bufffet or Steff. I’ll go with Warren.
    I’ll bet a burrito he’s richer than Steff.

      1. AT

        That’s true actually πŸ™‚ – he is usually selling when everybody buys, and buy when everybody sells

  7. Gary Post author

    Folks, this is volatility to ignore. It’s coming on day 40 of the daily cycle.

    It’s nothing more than a brief profit taking event so the market can catch it’s breath and then the next leg up will begin.

    It’s unlikely to even be very deep. The NYMO is already at -10. Once it gets to -40 or lower a bottom will form. That could happen in 2-3 days. Big money will be buying any dip because they understand what is happening.

    Listen to me for once. BUY THE DIP. The vertical phase has a long way to go yet.

  8. Goild

    Good morning,

    Interesting day.
    Last night I was seeing a red deep candle for gold today.

    We are near to close October, and bad SM news can come by anytime.
    Let us check UVXY.

  9. earthkitten

    Folks. You’ll never make money if you’re
    always fearful of the next pullback. We’re
    in a bull market. The trend is up.

  10. Goild

    Yes, with China’s economy becoming healthier, the SM run can last a few more years.
    But the rule of thumb is that in the SM anything can happen anytime.

    1. Gary Post author

      I find it funny that no one can see any limit to bitcoin, but virtually no one sees any potential in the stock market.

      1. Roy Batty

        I find it funny that some people confuse bitcoin with blockchain. They’re obsessed with bitcoin for some reason.

      2. Anthonyo

        Yeah sure….NONE of you so-called genius anal-ysts told us to BUY BITCOIN when it was $3….So pls spare us the hand waving….. You needed the hoopls for Bitcoin when it was $3 , not the hoopla for Dow when it is at 23,000 ……………

        ‘Nuf said.

  11. Gary Post author

    Remember this rule: during the declining phase of an intermediate cycle, prices don’t stay overbought very long before rolling over and starting back down.

    We’re now going to see the flip side of the coin in the stock market. Prices won’t stay oversold very long before the next leg up begins.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s not going to go down very far. The cycle is extremely right translated. It topped on day 39. There just aren’t very many days available for the cycle to drop. This is how runaway moves behave. They correct just enough to get the bears hopeful and then they start the next leg up as the shorts have to cover another losing position.

    2. Nada

      Exactly. Just some selling. No one here was saying this was game over. Also if you get a red day, be sure that Gary will come in and pump the market back up πŸ™‚

  12. ras

    Dip is starting. It was evident yesterday with lonely walk by the dow. Opinions are fine. Price is king. Everything else is noise.

    1. Gary Post author

      Buy the dip.

      You missed the entire daily cycle expecting and trying to call a top, don’t make that mistake again.

  13. JJHarmen

    The algos are programmed to buy dips and a half percent drop has become the line in the sand. The explosive rally should start any minute now.

    1. Gary Post author

      I expect the dip will last more than just one day. Watch the five day RSI. When it gets oversold you need to start buying.

  14. vin

    labu down another 5% today? If nasdaq is slated to go to 20000, or even 10000, then this one should be the best buy of the century? No brainer? Irrespective of all the meddling of politicians. Even without the vertical phase bios should do well. But, if SM is to shoot up then this should be firework worth watching.

    Goild this probably would fit your requirement of volatility. Any interest? Or, you are too tied up in jnug?

  15. JJHarmen

    The media are using Black Monday to scare a few folks who react by selling, as if history will repeat itself just because the media has pointed it out.

    1. Gary Post author

      90% of the time I would agree, but we are starting the vertical phase of this bull market so anything is possible.

      1. Surf City

        Gary, I also believe we will see much higher highs but a cycle low is likely needed to reset investor sentiment for the next leg up

  16. Lenapowich

    What was the event that has triggered this world wide sell off in stocks? It’s not that serious but what am I missing?

      1. Surf City

        Gary, I also believe we will see much higher highs but a cycle low is likely needed to reset investor sentiment for the next leg up.

  17. Goild

    I only got a meager $659,

    “He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.” On speaking of Old Turkey.

  18. Christian

    GOLD INTRADAY UPDATE — Consolidating for one more bounce up which should sucker in gullible bulls and provide savvy traders with another opportunity to SHORT πŸ™‚

      1. Christian

        Poor Nada — he doesn’t know it yet but he’s already lost a BURRITO. It’s just a matter of time.

        1. Nada

          Like I said Christian, I am giving you plenty of rope my friend. You will do the rest all by yourself πŸ™‚

        2. Nada

          What you are missing is the big C wave that is headed your way courtesy of USDJPY. You will soon realize, muhahahaha!

      1. Christian

        You’re letting the wiggles distract you from the big picture my little enchilada πŸ™‚ No need for an update, just patience.

    1. ziasDad

      We’ll see. If gold breaks the neckline on the IHS on intraday chart (needs to get 1293 or higher), the target on the IHS is around 1306. But that neckline hasn’t been broken yet. It may just serve as resistance to send gold lower again.

      Yes, folks, gold could go up or it could go down. πŸ˜‰ I have no idea which way it will go. (Unless that neckline gets busted, then odds would favor a run up to 1306)

  19. JJHarmen

    Lena, I believe it might have had something to do with Apple and it’s Iphone sales. The sell off is almost over anyway. The algos have stopped the sell off and the S&P is on the road to recovery. We just might go ripping back up to new highs before the end of the week.

  20. Goild

    Dammed manipulators. They have JNUG lagging NUGT, already for a while.
    In my next life I might be a manipulator :}

  21. Anthonyo

    Set up complete for a deep bear market flash crash (think 1987)….1800 SPX is a piece of cake; 1500 SPX cannot be ruled out.

    OK.

    1. ziasDad

      lots of folks calling for a pullback, even a crash as you’re saying here. Just the fact that so many are expecting a significant pullback shifts the odds in favor of it not happening.

      What are you looking at that makes you think SPX heads all the way back to 1800?

        1. Anthonyo

          No Gary you’re the one who is “pulling” legs to get Subs here on your hoopla calls on Stocks.

          “Hang on we are going vertically up” sermon. Give it a break please.

  22. JJHarmen

    Goild, do you have an opinion on where gold will be one week from today, or one month away or are you strictly a day trader who scalps without regard for the long term trend? Just asking.

    1. vin

      You are scaring me. What fundamental theory is your analysis based on? Will it really happen? Or, are you just scaring folks like me who are not very knowledgeable?

      I can assure you that you will be either right or wrong. Keep up the hard work and one day you will succeed.

  23. JJHarmen

    I was reading last night that it is now a widely accepted ‘fact’ that the central banks are in complete control of the markets and will never allow another crash, or severe bear market, to occur. Printing money with abandon has become their tool to counter weak economics and damm, it seems to be working. This time really is different, or so they say.
    I have heard that one before. We shall see.

  24. JJHarmen

    I never did get another fill on GDX. I guess 1500 shares will have to be suffice. Someday, the baby bull that Gary called back in early 2016, will return as a more mature bull market and GDX will soar. I can wait.

    1. ziasDad

      news media and news articles are usually contrarian indicators. THE top will come when Time, Newsweek, the New York Times and other newspaper all start shouting about what a great bull market it is, DOW to 50,000 or 100,000!! THAT will be the time to sell and run for the hills. Now…?? Not so much.

      A possible scenario I’m considering is that we do get a pullback, but a little one, maybe 3 percent, maybe 5 percent, maybe even 10 percent! But then the market roars to new all time highs and doesn’t look back. I’m thinking April next year will be the earliest time window where the market may put in a major top. Meantime, BTFD.

  25. Goild

    JJ

    I guess deep in my sould I hold that gold got to take off. That is the reason why I am holding the GDX.
    However, interest rates have no choice but to go up, likely the FED will increase the rates in December.
    On the other hand the bullish season for gold is coming soon. Mix short term scenario.
    I have no opinion for one week or one month. I take it one day at a time. I just reduced risk by selling 1K JNUG shares. Overall my holdings say I am bullish.
    To be successful at scalping, one must relay on the wisdom of the swing traders. I also need to have a take on what is likely to happen tomorrow. Occasionally, one has confidence the market will be up or down. Today for example, I was positive and so I loaded into JNUG. Of course, anxiety for safety overcome me and sold the 12K JNUG too early.

    1. JJHarmen

      “Wisdom of swing traders”…. who might that be? Are you following someone in particular? Given your incredible success, I think everyone should be doing exactly what you are doing but I guess it would be too time consuming for you to post every trade in real time.

  26. Goild

    Vin,

    Yes, I started selling the 12K shares around $17.92.
    To be a little fairer my goal was to secure lunch money.
    I was losing at some point like $900.

  27. JJHarmen

    Only a trading genius could make money consistently on UVXY. That piece of crap declines on a daily basis from the most severe decay rate of ANY ETF. Good luck Goild.

    1. Troy

      My BIL has been shorting both it and TVIX for a year and making a killing on them. It seems Scottrade has share available to short. TD Ameritrade never has any so I have only bought SVXY instead.

  28. JJHarmen

    I tried shorting UVXY once and my brokerage firm wouldn’t allow me to do do. Apparently, only the big boys are allowed to short that cash cow.

  29. JJHarmen

    It’s just about time for a wave another wave down for the SM but will it make new lows for the day?

    1. Troy

      I shed the rest of my JNUG and grabbed some JDST at 54.50. Had an order for more at 54.01 but the bastards missed my fill by a penny.

  30. Spanky

    Absolutely pathetic response in the gold miners and especially the silver miners, many of which are barely up, tells you all you need to know about the sustainability of this latest pop in gold and silver.

      1. Spanky

        It’s the same story day after day after day in the stock market, and conversely the miners. Stock market gaps down and then recovers nearly the whole loss by the close, while the miners gap up and sell off by the close. Tells you everything you need to know.

        1. JJHarmen

          Spanky: “It’s the same story day after day after day in the stock market, and conversely the miners. Stock market gaps down “. What?
          The only gaps that have occurred having been opening gaps UP everyday since last Friday. The sell offs have occurred after the opening gaps but have always recovered throughout the day. Today has been the first opening gap down since one week ago.

          1. Spanky

            Not really technical gaps. I just mean the miners often open at the high of the day and then sell off into the close.

  31. Spanky

    My god they are milking the golden cross (or lack thereof) in SLV for every pennies worth.
    I’m just tired at this point. Would much rather we just get a flush to $11 in silver in a week or two than this incessant downward grind. I’m sure we will get a waterfall in the last week or two of the IC (when we enter what Gary calls the bloodbath phase), but damn, we have to sit through another 6-7 weeks of this garbage. Just get on with it! Annoying as hell because the miners are screaming this pop is a bunk move.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p13528567132&a=551242721&listNum=1

  32. jacob2

    Gary, thanks for forwarding the very good video on why to remain long this market.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fboY0B7FVK0

    The only negative comment I have regarding it is the frequent quotes of Jesse Livermore ” the worlds greatest trader”. Always find it deep irony in the fact that he blew his brains out in the cloak room of the Alogonquin hotel after a series of market misteps.

    Be very careful about who you follow and what you wish for. Good luck

  33. Goild

    Hopefully after lunch the volume will increase and pull up the miners.
    There is a divergence and it is likely the miners will go up.

  34. JJHarmen

    It looks like the SPX is going to try and get into the green by the close. Absolutely amazing how every minor dip is bought.

      1. Gary Post author

        That’s irrational. That’s like saying you want no part of a baby bull. The beginning stage of a bubble is when easy money is made.

    1. Spanky

      As long as the Fed keeps tightening while the BoJ stands pat, the only limitation on the stock markets upside is technical. Forget about valuations.

      What are the alternatives? Bonds? Commodity charts are wrecked for a long long long time. I don’t care if the complex rallies 50% from here. They are going to be basing in a range for a decade or more.

      1. Americano

        Alternative: Bitcoin.
        Bitcoin(Uber)>Gold(Taxis)
        If just 5% (1% currently) goes to Bitcoin(Uber)……It’s $25K.

  35. victor

    if it’s to me, you meant one things I’m another…
    did anyone bought NG on that scary down move? I add it again. ..

  36. Gary Post author

    Smart money knows this market isn’t going to suffer any serious correction until the semiconductor index at least reaches 1350. This is why every little dip keeps getting bought. (Also we have an FOMC meeting in a week and a half).

    Dumb money traders are the ones trying to pick a top every other day. We just aren’t going to get any kind of significant top until the semi’s test the all-time highs, and trying to pick a top before that happens is foolish if not downright stupid.

    1. Spanky

      The yen is about to break down. Ugly reversal candle so far today. Not even sure why it was up today TBH. I mean, does anyone really think it’s bottoming here? The weekly chart tells a dire tale IMO.

  37. Spanky

    There was absolutely no fundamental reason for yen to be up in July. It was purely technical IMO. Pump before the dump. The Fed is tightening and reducing it balance sheet. BoJ is standing pat on massive bond and stock QE.

    Can anyone tell me what the downside to this monetary policy is? Massive yen carry sends the stock market to the moon, interest rates and USD are pressured up, commodities pressured down. It’s Nirvana. Of course, some day the yen will reverse higher, but don’t hold your breath. Why would they kill the golden goose?

    1. JJHarmen

      And just like I suspected this morning, we ended the day with fresh all time closing highs for the DOW and the S&P. This market is hilarious (unless you are short) to watch the obvious manipulations.

  38. Sassybabe

    I am just happy that sliver came back up. It would be nice to see more sustained move higher though. It will come.

  39. Sassybabe

    I have to say that this board is much more enjoyable to read now that Pedestrian is gone. He was such a creepy man anyway. I noticed that other guy with the motor, mouth ramblings, (Zkotpen) also left about the same time. Maybe they exchanged emails and are boring one another to death now. Anyway, big improvement here.

    1. vin

      Not quite. The most intelligent, the most superior human, the most read, the most knowledgeable Mr. Dr. Sir zkotpen is still around to advise and guide not too bright ones like me. LOL!

  40. Nada

    I am sure some of the dollar bull are starting to get this very uneasy feelings in their guts right about now.

  41. zkotpen

    Gary,

    I’m gonna have to thank you once again. This, it is a sincere expression of gratitude, and I hope you will take it as such, though I expect you to grab sword, spear, and javelin, don armor and helmet, and react in full jousting mode.

    1. Thanks for showing me when it’s time to retire. When you stop innovating, and/or time passes you by (“cycles don’t work any more in these modern markets”), it’s time to retire. I don’t think I’ll ever get there, but if I did, I’d know what to do, and do it with a πŸ™‚ (not with yet another battle!). On that note, I recommend you check out when the stock market peaks. Do not wait for your “gold bubble” — too risky, if you want to retire on top of your game. Someone once said that quitting is not the same as quitting while you’re ahead. Unfortunately, most disregard that wisdom.

    2. The combative nature of this site makes it personality-driven. Some key principles I’ve learned along the way point me in a different direction. Science is rigorously set up to be free of personality (all discoveries must be independently verifiable and verified), and the intuitive path, regardless of which manifestation of it, always demands taking full responsibility. It’s never the market’s fault or the bankster’s fault or the manipulator’s fault if you get a forecast incorrect or take a trade that ends up a loser.

    Thanks for pointing out stuff to me over the years. I appreciate your instincts, which are on target. Some of the things you key in on are interesting to me, others are not. For the interesting items, I’ve looked at them using my own techniques and approach. Still haven’t checked out Sentiment Trader dot com yet, but I will.

    1. vin

      WOW! What an insight! What an elegant way to express such a complicated issue. Sir, you overwhelm me with your elegance, knowledge, intellect and class. Unfortunately, all you say is no faaaar above my head that it will require decades of reading on my part to comprehend it.

  42. vin

    jj what do you expect SM to do tomorrow? Will it rise or will it just abide time a couple of days before shooting up?

    1. Christian

      A LESSON IN TRADING — Divergence + one more push to the upside to sucker in the bulls!

      I’ve seen these play out hundreds of times.. which means that now I know better. And just so we’re clear.. nothing is ever full proof (especially not in the metals market) and Gold could suddenly rally in the middle of the night and surprise everyone (except my good friend Nada), but this is another one of those “set ups” that plays out exactly as expected more often than not.

      Let’s see how this one plays out πŸ™‚

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/7GBr3Qdx/

  43. Jelly Belly

    It seems the SM correction is over in 1 day (not the expected 2-3 days). The NYMO never got to -40 and the 5 day RSI never became oversold. Is this a good time to buy or should I wait for another dip where these indicators are oversold?

  44. Nada

    Those pesky Eskimos attacked Nada after last night’s tax vote. We all know the close it what matters, so I will save you from all the mundane BS. See ya then!

  45. Gary Post author

    Well the yen is just about to confirm a failed daily cycle, it looks like the move into a daily cycle low in the stock market only lasted one day, and gold is giving back all of yesterday’s gains. I’ll say it again, gold still needs to complete a failed daily cycle and it needs a bloodbath phase before the intermediate decline is over.

    Like I noted in the chart, these runaway moves can last for a long time. I’ve seen them run for 6 to 8 months. Yes there will be corrections along the way but it’s virtually impossible to anticipate exactly when they will occur or when they will end. If you had asked me yesterday I would’ve thought the correction would last at least 2 to 3 days. Instead it lasted one.

  46. Goild

    Good morning,

    The scenario looks grim and slow, but not terrible.
    How are we going to make money today?

    Let us beware of falling knifes.

    1. Gary Post author

      We are making easy money by just holding Old Turkey our stock market positions.

      No trading, just sitting tight. Our brokers hate us.

  47. Gary Post author

    That may be all we are going to get for a daily cycle low. That would mean that we are now on day one of a new cycle.

    It is extremely dangerous to try and pick a top very early in a daily cycle, yet I predict we will continue to see analysts calling a top every other day. This behavior will probably continue for at least another four or five months.

    1. JJHarmen

      Which analysts are calling for a top Gary? I’m not seeing that other than from die hard perma bears such as Schiff or Hussman.

      1. JJHarmen

        In fact, the MSM is very much on board with the run away move you have been talking about. The majority are bullish as hell with token warnings about high valuations. Everyone buys the dips because it’s the thing to do now.

    2. vin

      In credible! But, Gary labu has been a real drag. What would you do if you had some. Sell? Or, wait?

      Congratulations on your predictions, in particular when there weren’t many who predicted it.

      So far, so good.

      1. Christian

        Not Gary but — Biotech is a lot more volatile thx to US Politicos, so if I were you I would keep some because I think it’ll move up with the rest of the market, but place most of my assets into the tech sector and the dow using leverage to try and maximize your gains during the bubble phase πŸ™‚

        1. vin

          Thanks. I was inclined in the direction of keeping labu.

          I don’t have much spare money to buy right now. But, what would you suggest in high tech? soxl? Too expensive, isn’t it?

          1. Christian

            It all depends on your timeframe and if you’re waiting for a correction at this juncture; you could be waiting awhile.

            I like TQQQ, SOXL and SPXL if the other two are too expensive. It’s all relative of course.

            GL

    1. vin

      Smart move Goild.

      Are you ready to load up on jnug at 16, it is getting there slowly, but steadily. Amen!

  48. JJHarmen

    Same pattern expected:
    Market gaps up to new highs….. check
    Market sells off almost to even….still to come
    Market recovers to small gain (or loss….rare theses days)…later in the day

  49. JJHarmen

    I just like hot knife through butter, the Nasdaq Composite surges to a new high. The Russell 2000 is within a whisker of it’s all time high. The markets are now firing on all cylinders except, of course, those waiting for the gold “baby bull” market to mature and take off.

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