100 thoughts on “LAGGING COMMODITIES”

  1. optimal

    Gary,

    If parabolic comes in 2018 and then decline in 2019, will the decline also happen in precious metals??? When u say commodities do u mean precious metals also?? Thank you.

    1. Gary Post author

      The multi year gold cycle is different than all the other markets. Gold could go up as the other markets go down.

      1. ian g

        Gary re XLE lagging WTIC badly, there have been periods in the past where we have seen the same lagging pattern and then the energy sector went on a big run after a period of similar lagging. Will this be the case this time? I don’t know but I would not abandon the energy sector just yet.

        1. Gary Post author

          My strategy moving forward will be to trade the actual commodity.

          Once oil gives us the next ICL I’ll trade USO, UCO or OILU instead of XLE or ERX.

  3. Americano

    No doubt when Nasdaq DOES go parabolic it’s not AMZN that will be your vehicle.
    It’s TQQQ.
    Otherwise known as the….”Dream Machine”
    Excellent video Gary.

  4. JJHarmen

    We should get the usual SM opening gap up to fresh highs followed by another minor sell down with the rest of the day trading within tight ranges. In other words, boring, Gold should be making another attempt to bust through $1300 .

  5. Don

    Good video, most of which I agree although not convinced the SM is going to go parabolic or vertical. We might just get a regular top. However, a point on your terminology: A vertical market is how parabolic move ends, not begin. Parabolic markets start with a steepening curve of higher highs and especially, higher lows until they finally become a vertical rise on a log scale. (higher percentage moves near the end).

  7. ptata00

    Gary the only thing I am confused about is the US dollar. If it is too continue it’s bear market soon, would this not raise the price of gold and all other commodities? The video says sideways to down for the CRB till the SM rolls over. If the US dollar has really entered a Bear does the SM have more influence on the index or the dollar?

    1. Gary Post author

      Oil isn’t really driven by the dollar so much as supply and demand. Gold can disconnect from the rest of the CRB, and gold’s long term cycle is much different than the rest of the CRB.

      I would expect a bear market in the dollar would be good for gold. It may not have much effect on the rest of the commodity sector.

      1. espresso

        Long term problem for oil (good for the planet) is that the cheapest per BTU for add-ons worldwide (not uniformly) is solar and wind. This trend will accelerate rapidly over the next ten years. OIL will never reach an inflation-adjusted $147 gain, and probably never even $100 again in today’s dollars.

    1. Gary Post author

      Take into account that gold is very late in its daily cycle. Day 36. It’s due for a corrective move back down.

      Also the dollar has completed a swing low. The dollar cycle is extremely stretched at day 56.

      So all things considered the dollar is due a short term bounce, and gold is due a short term correction.

      1. Nada

        Gary, quick question on your statement of “and gold is due a short term correction”. What are you trying to say here? You have been very adamant that gold is about the produce an ICL until about 1 weeks ago when you hinted that you thought the ICL occurred in October.

        So what is your current position?

        1. Gary Post author

          I haven’t traded anything in the metals sector for quite some time.

          The banksters are just fleecing both sides.

          I’m content to stay on the sidelines for now.

  9. 1970confused

    Gold is always due for a corretion, everything else just keeps on going!?!? Have you seen GDX, GDXJ, can not have 2 up days in a row. After 7 years we are still in the shitter and the HUI is lower now than when Gold was at 400$. So the question is if Gold wasn’t surpressed manipulated whatever you want to call it would it behave like Bitcoin?????

    1. Gary Post author

      We’ve known for years that the gold market is manipulated. It’s why one has to be careful and conservative when trading it.

    1. Gary Post author

      Like I said gold is due.

      The problem is gold was held down as the dollar moved into its DCL. Gold should have rallied considerably above $1300. It was held below $1300 so it is not in a strong position to weather a short term rally in the dollar.

  14. 1970confused

    Blah blah blah there is always a reason…..what i want to hear is heads should roll for what they have done and they are doing. But as we know there are 2 different sets of rules out there, one for the rich and one for the peasants

    1. Gary Post author

      All you have to do is play in the market that is manipulated in your favor. (the stock market.)

      They are handing out free money in this sector if one is willing to take it.

      When we get the next ICL in January or February don’t be afraid to buy aggressively.

  15. 1970confused

    Gary with all do respect and I respect your comentary unlike alot of losers on this site just here for there own satisfaction and agenda, I will not touch this market with a 1000 ft. pole. What buy Nasdaq now for a 50% move the Sp500 and Dow at all time highs setting them every freakin day all year, when the vix is at all time lows. NO WAY. Am waiting for the right oppurtunity again for a huge gain in the metals like we had in 2016. I’ll let everyone else play the markets and bitcoin.

    1. Gary Post author

      That kind of thinking is completely illogical. Bull markets make new highs. It’s what they do. One can’t not buy a market because it’s doing what it’s supposed to do???

      You could have bought at the recent DCL and had a very close stop.

      I’ll say again: When we get the next ICL in January or February don’t be afraid to buy this time.

    2. JJHarmen

      !970confused. While it’s great that you don’t think of yourself as one of the “losers”, you might want to consider changing your handle. How about ‘1970winner’ or maybe 1970neverlose”. Just a suggestion.

  16. 1970confused

    Thanks but no thanks, I have become a contrarian. Look at the cheap not the expensive. Is that not what the big boys do….Im done

  18. Goild

    Good morning,
    In this hike at 10:30 NUGT was leading GOLD.
    Jnug is lagging.
    Interesting.
    Holding 1500 GDX shares around $23.1.
    Holding 1000 JNUG shares around $15.4.

    Nada,
    Are you still bullish short term in gold?

    1. Nada

      FOMC members running their mouths today, so I expect we are waiting on the land mine sweepers to arrive.

    2. Nada

      FOMC members running their mouths today, so I expect we are waiting on the land mine sweepers to arrive.

  21. Goild

    Perhaps it is a mistake holding JNUG for a swing trade.
    It is lagging NUGT and is $NUGT/2 in price.
    Fear tells me to switch to NUGT.
    Greed tells me to hold…

    1. Nada

      Goild from what I am seeing at the close each day, the algos are simply in and out on GDX and GDXJ. They are just scalping. Nasty place to be. However, you like scalping so it may feel right at home for you. Good luck with you trades.

  22. Gary Post author

    Silver has broken its cycle uptrend line today. It’s probably leading the sector into the next DCL.

  23. Goild

    Nada,

    GDX has the same positive bias GOLD has. It has been climbing a bit and is above the daily averages.
    It is a bullish sign.
    JNUG is about flat.
    I will wait for the bull trap prior to the FOMC and perhaps sell JNUG.
    This consolidation will end. The issue is which way will it go.
    This is the time to plan the pyramiding move to make say $50K, shall the miners decide to get out of the mine.

  24. Goild

    The monthly chart for gold is forming a perfect cup with handle, isn’t it?

    Hey, load more JNUG shares!

    1. carlvan

      IMHO, the CWH pattern will only be confirmed with prices around 1900 again, then with a reaction low down around 1600; so, for now, breaking above 1377 would be a first mandatory step in the right direction

  25. Goild

    Volume in GLD, JNUG and NUGT has been decreasing.
    The miners have been punished.
    They are lagging GOLD now for a lot.

  26. Goild

    It is about lunch time in NY and the market will likely get slower.
    I am going for a workout.
    Have a nice profits day!

  29. Roy Batty

    One thing that hasn’t been mentioned much is that bitcoin is designed to be unmanipulated …. medium or long term anyway. It’s possible that a slow move is beginning from PM to BTC because of it. I’m not very experienced in futures trading but still wonder if BTC isn’t manipulable even with conventional (bank run) futures/options markets. Someone with direct knowledge should write on it. I can’t find anything interesting. What other commodity is like BTC? Do any others have zero weight, are completely virtual, trustless (unlike gold and silver), infinitely divisible, travel near the speed of light, hard limit on supply, secret, no storage costs other than hard wallets or cost of healthy brain, tradeable 24/7/52 globally without banks or any third parties, have no practical function other than store of global wealth, and truly free market (no permission and peer to peer)? What did I miss?

    1. didier

      Maybe you miss that the code blockchain is written in contains a lot of bad stuff, or a lot of bad stuff could be added without your knowledge? Maybe this parabolic rise is manipulated higher, to rip you off in the end? What do you know.

      1. Roy Batty

        BTC and most blockchain software is open source (anyone can inspect it and thousands have). All the ledgers are open for anyone to see and have distributed duplicates worldwide to prevent double spending. I may not know as much as you but I’m asking some important questions. I’m just thinking BTC is more complicated and meaningful than Tulip hybrids.

        Maybe the PM and SM are heavily manipulated in order to rip YOU off. The establishment is busily trying to figure out how to control cyrptos and I’m wondering if they even can. I think the bankers and smart money realize it can’t be.

        1. didier

          Ok, open source. But i think you understand my point.
          Maybe they rip me off in de sm but if so i’m not on my own. It’s regulated in all kind of ways.
          What about the huge electricity consumption to protect btc from fraud. Do you know someone in your country who had his bank bills miscalculated??? Mistakes never happen, never is there fraud. Bank did very bad things. But that will also happen in btc.

          2. Roy Batty

            The Greek banking system is heavily regulated and was when huge amounts of retirees money was stolen. Regulations don’t make your money safe … the opposite is true. They enable your enslavement with the benefit of your ignorance concerning your situation. Sounds crazy I know but anyone with a brain knows what the situation is … they’re just having trouble accepting it. It’s scary.

            BTC costs at least 5 times more to mine than gold, on average. Once you understand the basics of how it works you then begin to know that the energy used is being converted to fraud free security.

          3. Gary Post author

            We’ll see how well ones money is protected when the bubble burst and everyone loses everything.

            We will hear the usual cries of save me from my ignorance. Then the lawmakers will step in a regulate or make it illegal.

        2. didier

          What happened in greece or with leman was not fraud. It was bad laws, bad politics, bad intentions.. But the electricity is used to prevent calculation fraud. Again do you know someone in your country who has been misbilled by his bank? Me i never saw a problem in my account. So all that electricity is used to do what banks do as good but using almost no electricity.

          1. didier

            In the non-btc world there is regulation: it works but nothing is perfect. In btc computation/ electricity replaces the regulation. It is doing something the difficult way. And btc will be as imperfect as everything else.

  30. Gary Post author

    The SPX is within about 20 or so points of the bull market channel trend line.

    That would be a prime spot for a pullback before one more push higher into the FOMC meeting on December 13.

    Possibly a double top in mid December?

  31. wifesaidnomoretrading

    Bought 3k shares of GUSH $24.75 SL $23.40 TP1 $31 TP2 $36.40 TP3 $40.25

    Also holding 6k shares UWT w SL @ $21.15 TP1 $26.40 TP2 $29.25

    Have my core TQQQ 10k shares w SL $135.71

    Holding JDST still w SL @ $56.75, breakeven, and TP1 $67.25 TP2 $74.50

    Long: FB, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, BABA, CRM, IBM, SDRL, PSX, PYPL, AXP, V, BAC, C, JPMC, COST

    Short: TSLA, EBAY, FIT, WMT, AMD

    All shorts are long put contracts and longs are blend of stocks and call options. Making moves after New Years, not touching much between now and then unless I smell a bottom in the metals complex as the next $150 move from $1290 is UP to $1440. I’d like to buy on an undercut of 1227 support as eurusd bottoms in 1.14 region around Xmas time. Cheap gold for the wifey 😉

  32. Goild

    The Gold/miners market appears changing after those spikes. What is behind?
    The last gold spike coincided with a spike in UVXY.

      1. Don

        Give how the market loves new, good or bad, I am surprised it hasn’t shot up further. Maybe by close we will see some action.

  34. Nada

    Goild were you holding UVXY or vix related product at the time? VIX is getting a nice pop. You know they love to monkey hammer volatility, so get ready.

  35. Goild

    Nada,

    I have been scalping with UVXY and learning about it.
    Waiting for January to perhaps do a swing UVXY trade.

  36. BeachandBiscuits

    Expert advice requested:

    Which people/ courses/ books do you recommend to learn how to trade options?

    Gary has always recommended Walter Bressert, but he died recently and it doesn’t look like his company is doing much now.

    Best suggestions? Thanks.

        1. Nada

          Afternoon BeachandBiscuits. Option trading is a long road. I would recommend you find an options trading room to help you on your journey. I can recommend two for you – theotrade.com and tradewithjoe.com

          Tradewithjoe is an inexpensive service and lloyd is a super sweet guy that can provide some sound advice. Theotrade is the best I have seen, hands down. Theotrade will teach you things about the markets that will make your head spin. Good luck with your journey. I would personally recommend keeping it simple at first and always make sure you buy yourself enough time. Theta is enemy number 1.

          1. BeachandBiscuits

            Thanks much. Definitely a good idea for a trading room. I tend to learn better and quicker by hearing and seeing vs. reading a step by step, so interaction with others would be very useful I think.

    2. Goild

      Try this book: “The way of the Turtle” to get insights.
      The best book would be your trading log.
      If you do not know a lot do not play big money, just very little money.

  43. primetime

    Retail is holding the SM bag now…therefore they will only crash this thing out after hours when the little guy can’t play.

  44. primetime

    N and S Korea lobbing missiles and there is minimal reaction if any in gold or SM or VIX. When this thing breaks, watch out.

  45. palobar

    DJIA = We are approaching a major price resistance at the 24020 level approx. Although it is very important, I do NOT suggest shorting this market. If the DJIA takes out that level, it will enter the stratosphere.

    Gold = The November 17 high is still holding. It can break either way.

  46. jacob2

    Wow, that was something. No buying only selling.

    Can’t help but believe the tax will prove highly inflationary.

    Gold?

  50. vin

    bitcoin went up to $10825 yesterday (Tuesday). Does it mean it is going vertically up? Or, not not yet? Or does it mean that it is in a bubble stage and as Gary says it is stupid to invest in this beauty because there is real money to be made in the vertically going up SM market?

    Gary says that the SM is probably in the vertical up stage and nasdaq can go to 10k by june/July. That is 50% from here.

    Can anyone tell me how many weeks (or days) it took for bitcoin to go up 50%? LOL!.

    More interestingly how many weeks will it take for bitcoing to reach 15000 (about another 50%)?

    What will be the price of bitcoin by July 2018? And bitcoin cash? And, of-course the bitcoin gold!

    Wow! Unbelievable! This is history in making. Fireworks! Something beautiful to watching and enjoy.
    Amen!

  52. Gary Post author

    With no regulation the rise in bitcoin could simply be the product of two or three hedge funds selling back and forth to each other to drive the price up. Then when the public takes notice and starts buying they sell their bitcoins to the idiots at the top.

    Meanwhile everyone convinces themselves this is a world changing technology and we really are going to be able to create our own currencies from now on.

    Then after the crash and everyone has lost everything we find out hey we were just the pawns in one of history’s greatest Ponzi schemes.

    Human nature never changes.

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