237 thoughts on “Gold’s Basing Pattern Continues”

      1. Anthonyo

        That Mafioso delivery boy sounds like he has lots of saliva and foam in his mouth while recording this video, lol…he is disgusting…he was ultra bear for 7 years…. watch out when permabears join in the bull train.

          1. jacob2

            Yes, you wonder what they know that we don’t. It’s the retail trader against the pro’s. Wonder who has the advantage? They only spend 100’s of million dollars a year to get an edge.

      2. Autobahn

        In Davos he said “one will feel foolish to be out of the market” something like that. Then correction came 😂
        Now this “pre-bubble” comment.
        Gary’s prefered scenario is definitely inside his head.

    3. desertsun999

      You have got to be kidding me. You need to think about everything that your leaving out when you throw up a chart ratio like this.

    4. espresso

      Thanks for the link. I’d rather we had a reasonably long period of bull market versus a bubble. Instant gratification is nice, but it’s clear e.g. March 2000 that you can miss the flashing exit sign and get hurt pretty bad really quickly, ditto the PM shares like ahem a few years ago.

  2. Robert

    Yup Yup. In the meantime by then the stock market should be alot higher. The FOMC may send stocks into a DCL. Somehow I think the miners will have a big drop into the gold intermediate low. GDX may flush below the 21 level to get everyone out and then rocket to the 2017 highs

  3. optimal

    Gary, Thank you. so then Resistance of 1377/1400 holds on Gold, then down to 100 Week MA to about 1271. then possibly to 1500. Low coming in May. Correct?? At one time, you thought 1300 support would hold, not you think a little lower for bottom?? Thanks again.

  4. desertsun999

    Bluebellkid,
    Did you ever stop to think about how the chart ratio you posted above takes our federal debt into account.
    Do you realize we are in an environment where every 1% increase in bond yields results in 650 billion more
    in debt service? How in the world could you find any validity in a chart ratio like that?

    1. Bluebellkid

      I didn’t post a chart I posted a link to a 28 minute video. Did you watch the video? And where do you get the 650 billion number. A 1% increase in interest rates on our national debt is 200 billion.

    2. espresso

      If the entirety of the federal debt rolled over all at once at 1% higher than expiring bonds, the added interest per year would be 200 billion (i.e. 1 percent of 20 trillion).

      Since it would actually take ~10 or so years for the rollover to complete, the debt would be added over 10 years, not all at once, e.g. 20 billion added the first year, 40 billion added the second year, etc.

      It would hurt, but correct math shows that it isn’t insane like your miscalculation implies.

      Remember there is no interest payment due for future entitlement spending — only for actual debt.

  5. desertsun999

    Gary, if you own a car does it get you to the store any faster when your walking? Well, same principle with the printing press. If your in a quantitative tighting cycle owning a printing press does not help you purchase more stocks and bonds.

    1. Gary Post author

      What would stop the Fed from restarting QE and buying as many bonds as the gov wanys to issue?

      How do you think we paid for the debt after the Vietnam war and at much higher intrest rates.

      1. desertsun999

        The U.S. dollar. QE4 and the dollar is toast and possibly our reserve currency status. Then the printing press don’t matter anymore. At that point your just another nation trying to find creditors to finance a standard of life that is unsustainable. I’m sure the rest of the world will put out a large banner saying “welcome to the global economy.”

        1. DaZeD

          If you look at Japan, they’ve done QE far longer than we have, and you haven’t seen their currency collapse yet. Changes in financial markets are not going to happen overnight. Every country can’t abandon the US dollar as a reserve currency overnight, it’s possible that some might start with a basket of currencies and slowly it would be adopted etc.

  6. Rhino18

    Anyone’s thoughts on this……. If the market is going to continued upward, whether it be a secular bull or entering a bubble, how about loading up on some high beta stocks? Or is it better to continue using leverage with TQQQ, UDOW, etc.

    2. Gary Post author

      It’s actually bullish for the dollar.

      The dollar is due for a counter trend bounce sometime soon.

    1. ras

      Indeed. HFT is continuously on the prowl for low hanging fruit and the opportunity to shake them down on transition eves. Cycles, sentiment, robot ratio, etc, seem to be of no of no use when they kick in.

  10. Vortex

    Hold on to your goldbug hats. Dr. Jeffery Kern who publishes the well known “SKI” system has just announced that his system is signaling gold is about to have a massive drop in price in the coming weeks and months ahead.

    He states that gold will not just break the 2016 Dec low, but will ultimately drop into the $500 dollar range before a turn around. This guy is a hardcore goldbug and all he covers is gold related areas be it the metal or mining stocks.

    Talk about going out on a limb.

    1. Anthonyo

      If so then sell all physical NOW!
      Never heard of him; Are you sure his other name is not Harry Dent-in-the-head?

      1. Vortex

        Well his work has only been posted on 321gold for about 10 years. So I guess you have never visited Bob Moriaty’s site before.

        He’s very well known within the goldbug community.

        1. Anthonyo

          Yeah; I know Moriarty, he was that nutty professor in Star Trek Next Generation. He wanted to get out of being a hologram(just like college professors who live in holodeck only not real world).

        1. Vortex

          At the end of the day it’s just one mans opinion. I don’t care whether hes right or wrong.

          But his analysis may be worth listening to. You ultimately have to form you’re own opinion and conduct your own DD.

          In today’s climate of lies and manipulation nothing would surprise me. Gold at $500 or $5,000.

      3. Vortex

        Harry Dent is beyond a idiot. He’s very likely got the worst track record of anyone forecasting markets and sectors.

        Maybe the guy will finally call something right.

        1. Anthonyo

          That’s why I call him Dent-in-the-head Harry..he is an angry nut case alright.
          Robert Prechter is the super mild version of Harry The Dent.

    2. RTTPD

      “He states that gold will not just break the 2016 Dec low, but will ultimately drop into the $500 dollar range before a turn around. This guy is a hardcore goldbug and all he covers is gold related areas be it the metal or mining stocks.”

      Im starting to wonder if you really did listen to the whole interview or, instead just listened to part of it…..then made some stuff up in your head and posted it here?

      He never said gold would drop into the 500 buck range. What he said is that gold mining stocks would break below their Dec 2016 lows and ultimately land somwhere between the Dec 2015 and Dec 2016 lows before they take off again.

      He very well could be correct as ever since GDX rebalanced, most of the mining stocks have regressed in how they performed percentage wise prior to the gold price before the rebalancing.

  11. Robert

    A little jump up on the gold. Stocks not doing much yet. Maybe the SPY need a red day tomorrow to kick out all the breakout traders

      2. RTTPD

        Clearly an attack on hi networth Russians.

        HSBC laundred huge amounts of cash for the mexican drug cartels and the US never gave a chit.

  12. desertsun999

    Gary, I know you think rising interest rates are signaling a healthier economy but what if the rising rates have nothing to do with that and are actually a side effect of quantitative tightening and a lack of buyers for our bonds? We are rolling over an enormous amount of debt and with the Fed now backing off bond purchases the only other way to attract buyers is to raise rates………and I mean raise rates, not this quarter point B.S.
    We have never experienced the effects of QT. I can tell you one thing, nothing good is going to result from this. The only question is how many dominos fall.

  15. Goild

    Gold at $500?

    Even the well admired, notable, and amazing Wernher Von Braun said:
    “I have learned to use the word ‘impossible’ with the greatest caution.”

    I would say gold at $500 is impossible.

    Gold production per once is around $1200.00

    Wait till inflation kicks in good taste.

  16. JesseL

    What’s up with Silver ? DXY Not looking so good.

    Big red candle on volume at 18:45 followed by a big green candle, then it takes off.

    Was that a sign to the manipulators?

  17. Anthonyo

    Gold and silver both UP….is USD falling towards the bull trend line now like Gary suspected?………..if so, unload longs at 1377-1400 baby.

    1. Gary Post author

      The perma bears will keep finding excuses for why the market should go down and they’ll keep trying to pick tops all the way up.

      When the last bear finally throws in the towel completely broke from trying to short then it will be time to start looking for a top.

      The Robo ratio will look like the prior two tops and signal extreme complacency. Right now the wall of worry is definitely still intact.

      1. Gary Post author

        I think it’s a waste of time waiting 6 weeks. The Dow of course isn’t going to be anywhere near 17,000 by then. It’s more likely to be near 28,000-30,000.

        Clearly Megamind’s technical indicator is complete junk, as was all the perma bears telling us we were about to experience an 87 crash. Just like every ICL that has come before the only one that knew what was occurring was me and the bears just missed another buying opportunity. As usual most traders have missed the rally, or employed the time honored buy high, sell low technique.

        I tried to warn people that the odds of a slingshot move were high and that historically most ICL’s will gain 6-8% in the first 10 -18 days of a new intermediate cycle. This is the period where the best gains can be made the quickest. Instead most people panicked during two minor consolidation days.

        Major ICL’s only occur once or twice a year. They are the single best buying opportunities of the year. Even if a bear market is in progress they are still the best buying opportunities of the year, but no one ever makes any money off them except the very few people that listen to me or understand how cycles work.

        Human nature never changes.

  19. carlvan

    Gap up opening for SM? NQ only 100 pts from ATH and drawing (and breaking) a beautiful megafone pattern on the 4H

  21. Goild

    Good day,

    Let us find out how to make money today.
    Review your guidelines.
    Do not get into hopium.

    Today might be a strong day, or a bull mini trap.

  22. Gary Post author

    I don’t think one has to make a decision today. Wait and see what the dollar wants to do. It’s still up in the air right now and could go either way. At this point one is just flipping a coin and that’s not a very good strategy.

    2. espresso

      I don’t mind flipping a coin if it is my quarter with tails on both sides. My mom got it in change while shopping back about 1980.

    1. Gary Post author

      Like I keep saying. Traders and analysts will keep trying to pick tops all the way up. If these people understood how cycles work they wouldn’t keep making this same mistake over and over.

  24. Gary Post author

    The SOX is about to recover that 1363 level. Once it does it’s had a three month consolidation to build buying pressure that should drive another nice trending move once the breakout occurs.

      2. Christian

        This is just a ‘gap fill’ Robert and I have my doubts that it’ll even get filled in its entirety.

  25. Gary Post author

    During first daily cycles the HCL doesn’t usually occur until day 20-25. We’re only on day 10.

    Some first daily cycles don’t even produce a recognizable HCL.

  29. tallboy

    Gary, Spot on like usually. QQQ is about to break 170 another level coming down. Again fellow traders the stock market is where we all need to be, Gary has tried to help you all make money. Stop being so stubborn some of you. I am a Gold lover also!!

  30. Anthonyo

    Gundlach: S&P to have ‘pretty decent run’ in early 2018 before declining and finishing the year in the negative

    Gundlach is the “Bond God” chief investment officer at DoubleLine Capital, which manages $119 Billion worth of assets.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/gundlach-says-s-p-500-index-will-have-negative-return-for-2018

    Gundlach: “…, last line in sand to retain bond bull is 3.22%; if we break out over that game is over…. I do think rates will break to the upside if I were to make a bet. If so, No resistance until 3.6%-3.7%”

    “”If stocks are going to take another tumble, I think it would be preceded by a bitcoin decline and a rise in yields.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-23/what-jeff-gundlach-thinks-fair-value-10-year

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/bond-guru-bill-gross-signals-end-of-bull-era-for-treasury-markets.html

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/02/23/jeffrey-gundlachs-market-picture.html?play=1

    Rates to 4%?
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/02/25/were-at-the-twilight-of-the-current-bull-market.html

    1. Gary Post author

      Another permabear trying to find any excuse for why the stock market should go down. 3% rates are not going to do any damage to the stock market. Come see me when we’re at 5 or 6% Maybe

  31. Rapunsel

    Anyone’s comments on Clive Maund’s latest?
    Thinks the bull market is kaput and we are headed down.
    Got his followers mega short.

    Thanks Gary

    1. Gary Post author

      Like I keep saying these nitwits will keep trying to call a top all the way up. In the process they will miss one of the greatest bull markets in history and they’re going to miss the final bubble phase of one of the greatest bull markets in history.

      I keep trying to tell people that the biggest gains come at the very beginning of a bull market (the baby bull) and at the very end of a bull market (the bubble).

      Almost everyone missed the baby bull in metals. And now most are doing everything they can to miss the bubble in stocks.

    1. Gary Post author

      Way way too early in a brand new intermediate cycle to be making those kind of trades. Wait for at least 15-20 weeks to go by first.

  38. Anthonyo

    Been in since Last week… continue holding TQQQ and UDOW until FOMC meeting March 20-21.
    Early 2018 is early 2018.

  39. Gary Post author

    The semi’s are going to blow through that 1363 level today.

    We are getting the slingshot recovery as predicted. Now we just need this to convince the public that there is no risk in the stock market. That should begin the unsophisticated buying panic that drives bubbles.

    Plus there are still plenty of perma bears that just refuse to accept the bull and still have to convert. There’s lots of fuel to drive the bubble.

    1. tallboy

      Amen Gary, I guess if we continue this pace the rest of the week the bubble looks in play again. Reaching the highs could create a pause or not?

      1. Anthonyo

        Which one better? Call options on NASDAQ (NDX), OR, Calls on TQQQ? And why did the TQQQ 190 strike call FALL -96% today?!

        1. Christian

          I wouldn’t buy options on a triple leverage Anthonyo — They’re deadly :/

          I would stick with QQQ.

  41. MrBurns

    Transports is the only index not firmly above the 50ma (daily). Mid-channel on the weekly, so not any dire consequence at this time.

  42. Americano

    Triumphant day for ” The Dream Machine ” otherwise known as TQQQ.

    Maybe the Bitcoin powered Mayflower will just draft behind the TQQQ this spring?

    We’ll take it !

    1. Gary Post author

      Double tops are most likely to occur when they come late in an intermediate cycle. A market that tests the all -time highs after only 11 days isn’t going to double top. That is a market that is beginning an extremely powerful rally and is going to make new highs and probably big new highs. (This is what we need to see gold do, and when it does then it will be ready to break out of the basing pattern it’s been in for over a year.)

      I see a lot of analysts already anticipating a double top. If they knew how cycles work they wouldn’t be making these kind of mistakes.

      1. ocram

        Gary,
        could gold (and especially gold stocks) go up along with the SM or it will wait until the SM bubble pops? (many times you have pointed out that it’s not so unusual for all the markets to go up together when there is a huge money creation)

        1. Gary Post author

          They can go up together. The one difference though is that stocks can go up along with the dollar or if the dollar drops. Metals will probably need to the dollar to continue lower to keep rising.

          So at some point the dollar is going to give us an intermediate degree, counter trend rally. During that time stocks will likely ignore the dollar, but gold will likely drop down into an ICL.

  46. Goild

    It is an interesting situation.
    SQQQ has already reached a lower low. While QQQ is about to tag the previous high.
    SPY is behind.
    For the SM to non-stop fly over the previous high some kind of fuel needs to be present.
    Or a continuing market manipulation must be ongoing.
    Who knows what will happen.
    But there will be a second chance to make big bucks on SQQQ and UVXY.
    A plan is required to profit from shorting.
    There is a lot of money to be made.

    1. Gary Post author

      Trying to short a bubble is the quickest and most efficient way ever devised to lose money.

      For months and months and months I’ve warned people not to short the market. Despite that people keep trying and they just keep losing more and more money.

      A much better strategy is to follow the trend and make money off the bubble. Then when you deem you’ve “made enough” move on to the next sector that you believe will be ready to rally.

      I tried and tried to get bitcoin investors to be satisfied with their gains and convert to the stock market which would be where the next bubble would occur. As we saw no one was able to control greed (except one person) and walk away.

      We have a very rare opportunity, something that I think may have never happened before in history where we will get multiple bubbles one right after another. Why? Because never before in history have governments abused their printing presses like they have over the last 9 years.

      One can either take advantage of this opportunity or choose to fight it. I think one will make a lot more money if they choose to join instead of fight.

      1. vin

        Gary, I guess there are negative days even in a bubble. No?

        If one can time it correctly, one can do well. No?

      2. Americano

        100%.
        The record will show & I will attest that Gary was a veritable ” Paul Revere ” trying to assuage those tempted by going on the Mayflower ( Bitcoin ) to STOP & take profits or just get out.
        He did his Christian duty.
        There was just no saving me & ted. Basically its Plymouth Rock…..or a murky unmarked grave.
        Point is he tried and is hella successful with his alternative picks & that’s the point.
        DESPITE the wiggle freakouts he persevered.
        That’s why I tip my cap to Gary & subscribe !
        ( PS – my $25K June Bitcoin is still on – I just agree on TQQQ ” The Dream Machine” ! )

    2. vin

      @goild: around fomc?

      Could be very profitable but a dangerous game indeed. I don’t think I have the courage to go against the trend at this point.

      If you do, good luck.

  47. Gary Post author

    Sentiment has barely emerged from excessive pessimism levels. We have many weeks or many many percentage points before we need to worry about the next intermediate top.

    Seriously folks, why would anyone attempt to trade any market without a subscription to sentimentrader?

    Only an absolute fool would make this mistake.

  48. Goild

    Gary,

    Your strategy is certainly a very good one.
    There is no substitute, as McArthur would say, for victory, for joining the winners, and for going with the trend.

    You have made some outstanding calls in the midst of the market threatening to fall at all times highs.
    And also have tried very hard to help people to make money. This is very nice of you.

  49. MrBurns

    NYMO running hot to +61, could see a pause here. NYSI still has plenty of room to run and all equity indexes saw MACD bull-crosses in the past week.

  51. Goild

    Good day,

    Let us see what kind of day today would be.
    Looks like a flat day.
    But anything can happen.
    Be patient to wait for the extreme, the divergence, the channel, or
    or the gut feeling.
    Set the stop loss line and respect it.

  54. Don

    It would be interesting to see where the markets would be without the tech and semiconductor stocks performing their relentless 9 year melt up.

    1. Gary Post author

      You’ve been trying to see a bear market for years.

      Everything is breaking out. Just the economically sensitive semi’s are leading. Which just goes to show the underlying economy is strong.

      1. lobster

        Don,

        Respectfully, that is like saying, I wonder how the Patriots would do without Brady? The fact is, he is on the team. Read into that as you wish. Good luck with your trading. 🙂

      3. Don

        No Gary, I am not looking for a bear market. I am a veteran of many bull and bear markets and I have never seen a bull market resembling this one. There has been no real sector rotation where market leadership is passed off from one sector to the next until such time as most have had their day to shine. Yes, there has been some improved performance in certain sectors that have lagged badly but the primary strength has been the same sectors (tech, semis, bios), for years and years, dip after dip.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s probably too early for a HCL. Those usually come around day 20-25. Sometimes there isn’t a HCL during really strong first daily cycles.

      I warned you there will be down days along the way. Look at the last intermediate cycle. There were plenty of down days even though it was an exceptionally strong cycle.

      1. ras

        Not an expert in cycles. tqqq: price hits resistance zone with huge macd -ve div yesterday intra day. $8-10 dip could be in the works.

        1. Gary Post author

          Virtually every breakout after a correction will occur with a divergence.

          It’s one of the flaws technical traders make expecting divergences to matter.

          The more important divergences occur at cycle bottoms. It’s a sign that momentum is waning and a bottom could be forming.

          Expecting a divergence to be meaningful after only 11 days in a new intermediate cycle is almost always a mistake.

  59. carlvan

    Looks like QQQ need to close the gap of 23-26 Feb around 168.13…perhaps an opportunity to add to position

      1. Gary Post author

        I wouldn’t bet on the gap filling.

        We’ve just got some hesitation as the Q’s test the all-time highs.

        I expect by the end of the week they will go through that level. Certainly by the end of next week.

          1. Gary Post author

            It could be a spot to add, but I wouldn’t sell or sell short with the conviction that it’s a guarantee.

  60. Anthonyo

    I find Powell a big improvement over verbose but opaque Nana Yellen… this guy seems to be on top of any subject, provides direct replies without all the fludd garbage Yellen spewed out.

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar is very close to making a higher high and confirming a new intermediate cycle. If it does then gold should produce a failed daily cycle and move down into an ICL as we head into the FOMC meeting next month.

      1. Anthonyo

        No break for poor gold; Gary after gold ICL March 20-21 FOMC meeting, could we have a rally please? Say rally originating near last week of March and extending for 1-2 months? Possible? say 1450-1550 by May?

        1. Spanky

          Gold is dead. The miners are about to be cremated. Silver looks about as piss poor as it could on the weekly and monthly charts.

      2. RTTPD

        As much as I thought scenario #2, breaking the double top would play out, I like what looks to be a much shorter dollar rebound cycle to play out, where the dollar rolls over much faster and turns back down.

  62. victor

    have to say, cannabis are full of novice traders and other public, every weegle in stock market spooking them like shark on a pack of fish. Deep in red … , opportunity for you guys to buy cheep. VFF.TO holds well compare to others, should receive a license end of February.

  63. Spanky

    As I have been saying, the miners are going to get absolutely raped going into late March. $17 is in the bag for GDX, if not a lot lower.

    Silver will be at a new multiyear low and will likely break the 2016 low, IMO. Even though the CoTs are bullish, it won’t matter. This is going to be like 2013 where the floor drops out.

        2. Spanky

          Basically, the next waterfall decline is going to clear out all of the hopeful bagholders that have been holding since 2016. And there will then be 2 years worth of overhead resistance that will need to be chewed through. GDX will be in a grind for years yet.

  64. BeachandBiscuits

    Options Traders:

    Any suggestions on good courses/ sites to get education in trading options successfully? TIA.

      1. BeachandBiscuits

        Thanks. Will look into to, but it’s tough to see how they would teach you to trade vs. just teaching how options work, how to value, etc.

        1. didier

          Trading options is the same as trading, if you’re wrong you lose. So ‘learning to trade options’ equals dixit yourself ‘learning how options work, how to value, etc.’ There is nothing else you can learn i guess. The only alternative to my knowledge is the approach explained in optionalpha: place a lot of small option trades at the right side of volatility so the odds are in your favour and market direction is of no importance. But that approach is totally different from what we’re trying to do here: predict market direction.

  65. Anthonyo

    Sounds like more than 3 rate hikes to me:

    “every quarter, every participant in the FOMC submits a projection of what they feel is going to happen to the economy and also their projection for appropriate monetary policy.
    And at the December meeting, the median participant called for three rate increases in 2018. Now since then — we will submit another projection, all of us, in three weeks
    …………– but since then, what we’ve seen is incoming data that suggests that strengthening in the economy. We’ve seen continuing strength in the labor market. We’ve seen some data that will, in my case, add some confidence to my view that inflation is moving up to target. We’ve also seen continued strength around the globe, and we’ve seen fiscal policy become more stimulative.
    ………….So I think each of us is going to be taking the developments since the December meeting into account and writing down our new rate paths as we go into the March meeting, and I wouldn’t want to prejudge that.”

    –Mister Powell new Fed Chair today in his reply to a Demi senator.

  67. Don

    Dennis Gartman recently got stopped out on his bear market positions and is now net long. That is all we need to know that some downside market action is in the works until such time as he reverses his position yet again. He is a fantastic contratrary indicator.

    1. Anthonyo

      Fartman is an idiot and always wrong; he coined these non-sensical terms like “long OF gold, short OF oil, etc.” and “net this and net that” ……just to sound profound to the lay man …….. The guy belongs in a crypt in a ancient history museum.

  70. Americano

    1300 is the DMZ under which miners can be shorted relentlessly.
    Given the performance of TQQQ aka ” The Dream Machine ” & Bitcoin though…….
    I don’t see why anyone would find it interesting to do so.

  71. Spanky

    All of the ultrapatient soon to be bagholders who bought GDX at the low in December 2016 around 18.50 need to be cleared out before the banksters will let the miners rise again. No way they let them off the hook. It’s just too tasty to pass up.

    1. roadrunner

      Gold/miners must be down..Spanky is posting! if you are so convinced of your scenario happening, it would be real easy, and I mean real easy, to just short the miners, right here, right now and make some really nice coin over the next few weeks/month. But you won’t do that, instead you will continue to make your whinny, negative posts that serve no interest to anyone. really. You are not helping anyone, including yourself.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xyh-JpWdGmQ

      1. Spanky

        I don’t short stocks.

        There is nothing whiny about what I am saying. An IC that tops on week 6 and a DC that tops on day 6 (that still has another 29 trading days left!) are not exactly screaming imminent rocket shot for the miners.

  72. Spanky

    Gold has a date with the lower bull trendline which is basically intersecting the 200 WMA now. That intersection comes in around $1230, but we’ll probably go lower before the DCL, just for giggles.

    This ICL topped after only 6 weeks and the recent DC topped on day 6. The DCs have been running about 40 days. That gives us about 29 more trading days to reach the low 1200s. That will be a piece of cake. I’ll tell you what, silver and the miners are going to already be in tatters when gold tags the 200 WMA.

    We are looking at the second week of April for the next DCL.

  73. Robert

    Even though this is a new intermediate cycle the run up in the SPY has been sluggish. I have to say holding through the entire cycle takes balls of steel. You have to be like a robot without any emotions

  75. Gary Post author

    At this point it looks like gold is setting up to produce a failed daily cycle. It’s still very early in the daily cycle so I don’t think traders need to look for a bottom until the FOMC meeting next month.

    Just exercise some patience now for a few weeks.

    1. Anthonyo

      Gary,

      1) Big gold rally after FOMC (sell the news, buy the event) into May? ……Say rally originating near last week of March and extending for 1-2 months? Possible? say 1450-1550 by May?

      2) We add to stocks longs today?

      3) We need some female intelligence women traders posters in this here site. Just saying.

      1. Gary Post author

        Yes the next cycle low should also be a yearly cycle low for gold. That should be a very profitable buying zone.

        Now it’s just time to wait until the opportunity arrives. Remember ICL’s usually have some kind of bounce before the final leg down so don’t get suckered into thinking the bounce is the bottom. The bottom isn’t going to come until at least the FOMC meeting.

        1. Bluebellkid

          And BUY BUY BUY these above average volume selloffs as they mean nothing. The fact that the rallies have come on below average volume and the selloffs on above average volume does not mean a thing, if you are scared then BUY BUY BUY and if you have not any money then get on margin. (sarc off)

          1. Gary Post author

            I think we’ve seen repeatedly that volume really doesn’t mean anything and all you’ve done is whipsaw your portfolio trying to attach significance to it.

            FWIW the volume at the bottom was significantly above average.

            Like I said before, a very simple strategy is to buy when the smart money confidence index is bullish and then sell when sentiment gets complacent.

          2. Bluebellkid

            Put up a weekly chart Gary. As I have repeatedly said, “weekly charts tell the story”. You have a habit of cherry picking charts.

          3. Gary Post author

            Look what one would have missed waiting on volume.

            Pure and simple volume is an outdated concept that no longer works (if it ever did) in our modern markets.

          4. Bluebellkid

            I’m analyzing the “circle” you drew and I see 43 UP days versus 25 DOWN days and you say volume doesn’t matter. It’s not about HEAVY volume as you used to frustrate me with it is about VOLUME period. Above average and UP days vs. DOWN days. As I have repeatedly said VOLUME is everything. To track Smart Money you have to track the volume as they are the ones generating it.

          5. didier

            up versus down is on balance volume, on balance volume was down between august en december 2017 but qqq was rallying

    1. Gary Post author

      Robert you really need to sell your options and get out of the investing game. You are way too emotional, and it’s probably because you are way too leveraged. You panic on every down day.

  77. RTTPD

    ” Basically, the next waterfall decline is going to clear out all of the hopeful bagholders that have been holding since 2016. And there will then be 2 years worth of overhead resistance that will need to be chewed through. GDX will be in a grind for years yet.”

    Your emotions always seem to get the best of you.

    What you’re stating above is not likely to happen.

    Both the Doc and Dr Kern have outlined in a technical analysis what is likely to happen.

    The Doc says that many pm stocks are in the process of bottoming off their 200 week MA’s and those MA’s are starting to turn up for some, and more will follow.

    Kern is basically saying the same thing, only he is using the USERX as his indexing model. He says the USERX needs to fall below 6.42, and can fall as low as 5 before the PM stocks turn up in unison

    1. Bluebellkid

      I have no idea what will happen. All I know is that below average rallies followed by above average sell offs does not bode well. I have seen it too many times in individual stocks and indices. I posted TWICE this weekend on two different threads that Utilities and Tobacco stocks were some of the best performing groups last Friday and no one here questioned me on it including Gary. Those are “defensive” plays as in they pay good dividends so parking your money there during selloffs is a good strategy and once again no one here picked up on it. I’m no guru but when I see things like this it gets my attention.

    2. Spanky

      That’s fine. I hope you are right and there isn’t much more damage, but that is wishful thinking to the extreme.

      With the way the weekly MAs are flattening out (e.g., 144, 233, 200 etc), you could make the case that the action since 2016 has been nothing but a giant continuation pattern that projects much lower. All of that bearish sentiment had to be worked off, and 2016 did the trick. No true bull market behaves like this. Once the Dec. 2016 lows are within sniffing distance you will see real panic set it.

      1. RTTPD

        Spanky —–

        I’m not sure what stocks you are watching but I’ve seen quite a few already break below their Dec 2016 lows. Take a look at ASM.

        In the not to distant future that miner will be a HUGE buying opportunity. If it goes below 1.10, I am going to buy 50 – 60 thousand shares.

        NGD is another one that will be very cheap and will turn out to be a monster in the future.

        I see huge buying opportunities on the near horizon.

        1. Spanky

          The miners have been making lower highs and lower lows for almost 2 years. Sorry, that is not the sign of a bull market. They will be basing out for years and years.

  78. Anthonyo

    Volume lower but steady while rising stocks is nothing new…This was in 2014, when the DJIA was still at 17,635+…. low steady volume while rising DJIA didn’t matter then at all….3+years later, we are at DJIA 25,400+ .

    ” Many have considered the bearish volume signals of late to be “dead” since the weekly and monthly longer term volume numbers many investors follow have been declining for years, yet the market still has risen in price in spite of it.

    …In other words the verdict is still out as a large market selloff would actually confirm what the falling volume has been warning of over the past few years, that the current uptrend is very weak and continues to get weaker, with less participants, as suggested by these falling volumes. Just because an extreme is the largest ever, doesn’t invalidate it. ”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-stock-market-trading-volume-150803637.html

    1. Bluebellkid

      That makes me think of what Lynette Zang keeps saying at ITM Trading, and that is there are no traders on the other side of the markets.

  79. Anthonyo

    -300 DJIA day …..markets usually pout when Fed does not give them what they want…….today is no exception.

    3 or more rate hikes are coming, market will soon put that in the cake and move on.
    Even if 3.5% this year on the 30-year bond ain’t gonna kill the bubble goose.
    Selling the news today, to buy the event later.

    1. MrBurns

      Last print is at 17:45 ET. Either way, I have not been able to make a true correlation with this statistic versus real moves.

  81. Anthonyo

    Today the market showed it is still at war with new Fed chief.
    The whole correction started on the very same day he became Fed Chief…….
    Does this tell anyone anything?

    But we have a bubble to complete…
    So then, it better turn around and head up before long; no need to pout long.
    Fed sounds like it is set to raise 3 or more times this year. Get used to it, market!

    Any further possible tantrums by the market in days ahead would be a futile attempt to change the Fed’s strategy… it has worked in the past when Fed did a 180 turn around and introduced more QE…………..but that was then, and now is now.

    So then.

  82. earthkitten

    Bluebell. You are one scared investor. Or are you a gambler? It is
    obvious you are playing with scared money & probably need to
    move on to CD’s because you are so scared of the next drawdown.
    Pullbacks are normal. You are overthinking it & listening to every
    perma bear you can find. Just listen to Gary & relax. We are in a bull
    market & will make a higher high. That’s what Bull Markets do.

    1. Americano

      earthkitten :
      Your comment could be fashioned into a mantra for all the pilgrims aboard……
      The Mayflower.
      This March is crucial to Bitcoin’s price destiny.

    2. Bluebellkid

      I’m 63 and yes “playing” with all the money I have amassed during my working career. I didn’t take the annuity offered at retirement I took the lump sum because I dont believe the Pension system is “safe” although I did check with my company’s (Huntsman Corporation) pension group and found out my pension fund was 92% funded which was above he norm. If you think everything is hunky dory with global debt at something like 325% of GDP and an unfunded liability in this country of something in excess of $100 Trillion (according to the CBO) then you are delusional and good luck down the road. When volume is running light on the up days and gets into gear on the down days it should get your attention. Does it make sense to you that the volume should be below average when markets are moving up and above average when selling off?? And yes you are right pullbacks are normal but not with above average volume and that is what is lost on you and most others.

        1. Gary Post author

          From Jason Geophert at sentimentrader today.

          “Almost every time stocks decline and then rebound, we get the same bearish argument – the rally is occurring on low volume.

          I don’t know why this persists, other than it was in a textbook from decades ago, has wiggled its way onto certification tests for newly-minted technicians and is taken as gospel. There is so much crap out there that can easily be tested but either due to dogma or laziness is not.”

          1. Gary Post author

            The same argument about low volume was floated as we came out of the 4 YCL in 2016. Jason commented then as well and we know what the market did.

            “Volume has dropped off as stocks rallied during the past two weeks. The textbooks and their adherents would suggest this is a bad sign, but they rarely look at the facts. And the fact is that stocks perform just as well after low-volume rallies from a low as they do from high volume rallies off of a low. In some time frames, the low-volume rallies actually outperform. ‘

          2. Christian

            Lol! Was just reading that as well in tonight’s report AFTER posting my little blurb down below 🙂 It’s a sign BLUE!

  83. Spanky

    The $HUI is within a few weeks of its 200 dma crossing below its 600 dma. It doesn’t get any more bullish than that. Textbook bull market.

    Silver’s 200 dma has already crossed below its 600 dma. It’s leading the way in this tremendous new bull market.

      1. Spanky

        Question is, should a real bull market be behaving like this? I mean sure, you get fakeouts and multiyear consolidations, but the complex (other than gold) looks terrible. Should the 200dma really be crossing below the 600 dma? When that has happened previously it either marked the beginning of a bear market or coincided with a market crash.

      2. Spanky

        BTW, I am old turkey, but I have held with the presumption that this is a new bull in the metals. Quite frankly we never had consolidative action this ugly between 2000 and 2008 and then 2009-2012. The $HUI would need to rocket higher from here to save this cross from occurring. That seems extremely unlikely. Once the 200 dma crosses below the 600 dma, the miners will be shorted relentlessly on every uptick.

        1. Gary Post author

          If you are watching the market every day you clearly have no business using an Old Turkey strategy.

          Get out of metals and into stocks or cash.

          1. Spanky

            But I have held these miners for 2 years now.

            I was expecting steadily higher highs and higher lows, with the occasional 1-1.5 year consolidation. Not a breakdown and retest of the 2016 lows after 20 months of lower highs and lower lows, or hell, a continuation of the bear. yeah yeah, I know, gold looks beautiful and the miner’s haven’t completely crapped the bed yet. But they are literally on the cusp of doing so. In fact this looks very much like 2012-13. After the 200 dma crossed below the 600 dma, it was all over.

  84. Christian

    BLUEBELLKID — You’re one of my favs but the thing that I find frustrating with you is that you aren’t able or willing to adapt and/or change your strategy no matter what anybody tells you or shows you.

    In the meantime.. some of us are making REAL money and you are still trying to argue your point. You were even trying to SHORT this market when it was clearly pulling out of a YCL a little while ago — that is asking for an “ass kicking” my friend!

    It frustrates me because I like you more than some of the other ignoramus that frequent this blog and I wanna see you making a killing!! So do me a favour.. if you think Gary’s charts are full of beans then at least get a subscription to sentimentrader.com and follow the SMART MONEY..!

    Take $50K out of your portfolio, dedicate those dollars to following the SMART MONEY and then after 12 months compare notes. It will change your life 🙂

    I know that Gary has already mentioned it at length and I was personally introduced to it a few years ago over at Stansberry Research, and it took my investment methodology as well as my perspective to a whole other level.

  85. earthkitten

    Bluebell. “Down the Road” is the key phrase in your response.
    When will debt matter again? Tomorrow? 1 year? 5 years? 10 years?
    It could take 15 years before it matters & one could miss out on
    the best bull market ever. I know right now that consumer confidence
    is at an all time high. Small business sentiment is the highest in years.
    Wages are going up. I know mine did with the tax cuts & earnings are
    great. Unemployment at an all time low. There will always be things to
    worry about. That’s why so many don’t make money in the markets. They
    overthink & sell at the exact wrong time. Good luck to you. Wish you well.

    1. Gary Post author

      We’ve known for years that governments protect the stock market. It’s how they control the business cycle and one of the main reasons to focus on stocks. You have protection in that market.

      1. jacob2

        Gary, Changed your mind about the upside breakout and the bubble? In the no bubble camp due for a long consolidation in a trading range. Weather or not that makes me money remains to be seen. Lightened up at 2750 S&P want to buy again when/ if we approach 2500.

        1. Gary Post author

          When has an intermediate cycle ever topped on week 3?

          Short-term sentiment just got a little extreme with bulls at 84%. Couple that with the NASDAQ and the semis testing the all-time highs and you have the recipe for a short-term pull back or consolidation before a break out.

    2. Goild

      BBK,

      Thanks for the article.
      Had heard that currently there are states that have reduced the amounts given to retirees.

  87. Goild

    USD up today made GOLD dive.
    Miners went down probably helped by the SM.

    Miners/GOLD outlook is quite grim.

    Sold 1K GDX to have 2K shares on the table.
    Might get rid of them.
    Accept loss and sell asap.

    SM may have established the top of a new channel trend line and may dive again to -10%.

  88. earthkitten

    Again Bluebell. There are negative articles on every topic
    you can imagine written everyday. At some point, you will
    have to decide what your risk tolerance is. Everything has
    risks. Life is a risk. I should know. I was diagnosed with Acute
    Myeloid Leukemia in 2015 at the age of 54. Doctor gave me
    a 50% chance of being alive in 2 years. Still here & loving every
    day. Bluebell, if you can’t take the volitility, you really need to take
    some of your capital off the table. After what I’ve been through, volitility
    is nothing.

  89. Anthonyo

    Big boys use Fed chief testimony days as excuse to take profit at the top, so they can buy again low.
    It happened when Yellen spoke too, same thing.
    This whipsaws retail investors traders around, so they sell to give cheaper shares to the big boys for the next leg up.

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