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Call me crazy but this chart (which I posted on the sub side a few days ago) is what’s keeping me in the SHORT OIL trade. Topping is a process, albeit a frustrating one at best π
Christian,
How are you shorting oil, and are there other avenues to do so besides whatever one you are using?
Ty in advance.
SCO and DWTI are the more popular options. I’m currently using OILD.
HOD is an inverse 2X leverage on the Canadian side.
Unlike the metals, the oil hedgers are probably mostly legitimate oil or oil related companies who are looking to lock in prices after the huge plunge they suffered a couple of years ago. In other words, not sure I would necessarily call them smart money, like I would with gold and silver commercial shorts.
That being said, that is a pretty compelling chart, suggesting at least a bounce (drop in oil) is close at hand.
Yes, some of these shorts are explorers who will carry those contracts to expiration.
OIL:
Goldman Sachs outlook today: $75 in 3-months, and $82.50 in 6-months
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-resumes-climb-on-us-gasoline-demand-2018-02-01-81031226
classic… that almost guarantees at top. GS famously upg oil at $145 with a tgt of $200 within 6 months. it top a few days later at 148. 6 months later is was in the 30s. they put the “k” in crooked… lol
What does the short term look like?
Oh boy Gary would I laugh my butt off if the top in the Nasdaq is already in. You have made some good calls lately but you have also made some pretty bad calls in the past..anyone who is a mo-mo person looks like a genius in the latter stages of a bull. When you start getting super cocky with statements like Nothing wil stop the market getting to 10K then bells start ringing in my head as a possible top.
Yes the parabola could extend to 10K but there is also a strong enough argument to be made that it could be over now also. We have seen record levels of RSI lately..never before seen..we have seen investors intelligence showing the most bulls in like 35 years. I don’t know when but when this party ends it will end very rapidly and to me it could end anytime from now until September with or without the Nasdaq hitting 10000.
What I find laughable is anyone who is trying to play a parabola…these patterns are impossible to forecast when they end and how far up they go..nobody knows..its pure gambling. Look at bitcoin..who would have know then parabola would blow up at 20000 and not 10000 let alone 5000 or 50000..nobody knew. Nobody ever knows..so for you guaranteeing 10000 is pretty rich.
The ROBO ratio should stay extreme for several months before a top.
The advance decline line should diverge for months or even a year before a final top.
The banks should diverge from the general market before a final top.
We should see the general public panicking to get into the market like they were panicking to get into bitcoin in December before a final top.
During a bubble price should stretch 40-60% or more above the 200 DMA before a final top.
We should see a buying panic proportional to the selling panic that occurred at the bear market bottom before a final top.
None of these signals have occurred yet.
My correct market calls so heavily outweigh the few misses that it’s almost not even worth trying to find them.
Over the last two years the metal portfolio has gone from $100,000 to $418,000.
The stock portfolio has gone from $100,000 to $278,000.
The only sector I have struggled with is energy. If you want to try and find fault you had best stick to that sector.
Gary,
You are great mentor and educating us to control anxiety and greed . my portfolio went from $50,000 to $240,000 in less than a year .
Of course I am following your guidelines along with your trades.
cdntrader:
I’m with Gary, this will not stop until late this year or next year.
Next target for a posible turn is 2985.60 on S&P 500, that could be the top for this bear rally, now we are in correction mode and a buying oportunity
I’m watching close this correction, could mark a huge left shoulder.
Good trading all
Markets have been flashing red flags for a couple of weeks now. In last night’s daily report IBD changed the markets from “confirmed uptrend” to “markets under pressure”. If things continue to deteriorate (as in action like today) they will put the markets “in correction” and we wait for the rally/confirmation for the green light to get back in. The last few years they have moved the markets to “under pressure” many times (something I had never witnessed in the past and I even emailed them about it) only to have the markets turn around in a short period and then they moved the markets back to confirmed uptrend so they have adapted to these squirrelly markets. At the very least one needs to cut losses in laggard stocks and watch those that have a profit very closely. I’m all in cash and have been for days. Keep an eye on stocks that do well during this downturn as they will most likely do well when things turn around – one is DXC.
There must be a chart, β the greater the conviction the less likely it is to come
trueβ.
I heard the same thing in 2014, 2015 & 2016 when I guaranteed the Nasdaq was going to reach the 2000 highs.
I heard the same thing when I guaranteed that the semi’s would reach the all-time highs.
Folks you would do well to listen to me.
As long as analysts and traders keep trying to pick the top (and there’s certainly no shortage of top callers yet), this market isn’t going to top.
Plus what so many of you continue to overlook: Bear markets require a catalyst. They don’t just appear out of nowhere for no reason. And they certainly don’t begin for no other reason than the bull market is mature. Without a catalyst all you can get are profit taking events. You simply can’t begin a bear market without one.
Not the start of a bear. Just a gut check phase prior to the resumption of the major trend -UP. Everybody I listen to is also talking unstoppable bubble. That IS consensus. No top talkers do I see on CNBC.
Sentiment too bullish and almost everything significantly overvalued. It’s all about sentiment. You of all people should appreciate that.
You might be right about the suspension of investment rules at a certain point in a SM bubble. However I think Its a “fake bubble” which everyone has bought.
Don’t think we see a “real deal bubble” until after a significant correction and another consolidation phase. Perhaps, years away.
Then you aren’t listening to everybody π
The ROBO ratio should stay extreme for months before a final top. Go check out those prior videos and see where the ROBO ratio was during the 2000 bubble and where it’s at now.
We aren’t even vaguely close to the kind of complacency that would signal a bubble top.
Let’s agree to disagree and see how it plays out. The next couple of weeks should tell the tale. Know that I have never been wrong about anything before. Ha!
Any idea on a timeline for when we’ll start moving up in the stock market again? Are we talking days? weeks? The VectorVest timing indicator is at the highest I’ve ever seen. I can’t really see it moving higher in the near term. The last couple days have been down and today was a bit of a sideways move.
We’re 51 days into the daily cycle. The bottom could occur at any time.
I’m watching the 5 day RSI. That has been a very consistent buy signal during the vertical phase.
Nice! Thanks!
How many days into the cycle is the US Dollar?
Pack your bags Christian, its time to come home and face the reality that you are going to have to sell that ass of yours on the streets, to get out of the mess you are in. Oil is ripping your nuts off, so please tell me you have something more than a chart from sentimentrader to base your hope and dreams upon.
Anyway, I hope you enjoy what’s left of the vacation!
My nuts are tingling but that chart is giving me what some might call a boner β the size of a burrito π
LOL. You know I am messing with you! Anyway, have a good trip and hopefully that dollar turns up tomorrow on NFP.
Love to read y’all’s banter. Thanks for adding some levity to a stressful trade!
Itβs like hearing a boar and a hog in the feedlot.
clean up yr mouth alright..
or stick a burrito in it
Whipsaw city in gold. Nothing is coming easy for bulls or bears.
Gold is in an uptrend Ped, anyone without horse blinders on can see that.
You’ve got some issues.
Retail guys say buy the dip! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/etf-investors-don-t-miss-202719558.html
Gary, oil is front running the upcoming recession? 6 months to 1 year seem about right?
aapl beginning to turn around. amzn is weak. Difficult for nas to make much headway without amzn.
Sucky earnings from Google, Amazon so-so, if Apple sucks or is a so-so report than Nasdaq will dive to the bottom of the ocean tomorrow.
Is this your first ICL?
Haha no, not even close.
You seem to be quite bearish even though nothing unusual is happening. In fact so far this barely even qualifies as a DCL much less an ICL and the cycle is on day 52. None of the indexes have even managed to push the 5 day RSI to oversold yet.
If we turn higher tomorrow this could be an almost exact repeat of November 99.
Dollar weakness, RESPECT the trend.
Gold is in an uptrend.
RESPECT the trend.
What happened to your “every gold DCL breaks the bollingers” lie? Selective memory?
Gold has not generated a DCL yet. I warned shorts that we could get a stretched cycle that makes it to the baby bull high before this 1st cycle tops. It all depended on whether the euro had completed a daily cycle top or was just flagging in preparation for a run to that bear market trend line.
After today I’d say the odds are looking pretty good that it’s going to make a run at that trend line. That means there’s a good chance gold is going to produce one more move higher before the real move down into the DCL begins..
That would be a stretched DC right? Does that mean there will be fewer days to find the DCL after it tops?
Yes, the longer it takes to find the top the less time it has to get to the bottom. However these are the conditions that could trigger the short cycle scenario.
That would mean gold tops during the first cycle just like it did in September. The second daily would fail to make a higher high and gold would drop down into its ICL as the dollar gives us a dead cat bounce for a few weeks.
Never said DCL PED. Youβre The only resident troll spouting falsehoods under your several aliases.
You’re a lying POS, you know that?
Here’s what you said on January 29, 2018:
“Gold cycles break BBβS”
I responded:
“your own chart clearly shows that not every DCL drops below the lower BB. Not saying it wonβt happen this time, but your own chart doesnβt support what you say.”
You responded with:
“Sure does Spanky, you are just in denial.”
To which I said:
“Oct/Nov 2017 DCL”
And you responded:
“Spanky. Thatβs the only one you need a microscope on, look at the cycle highs as well. If they poked you in the eye youβd still be in denial.
Effort vs. result: look at the volume on expiry day in relation to the gain.”
Goldman sees copper rising in the next 12 months even after it racked up the biggest gains in eight years over the course of 2017. Brent crude will also rise above $80 a barrel within six months.
How can OIL goes down to $50-$55 when Gary is saying NAZ 10,000 guaranteed this year??
We’re just looking for an intermediate cycle decline. They always come eventually. Just like ICL’s always end eventually and the weekly stochastics eventually cycle back up to overbought.
If I had listened to all the clueless people panicking last summer I would have sold our energy position for a huge loss. Instead we managed to score a small profit.
Trust me, oil will have an intermediate decline. When it does everyone will get super bearish. That’s when I’ll be getting bullish.
You’d think after people make this same mistake enough times they would learn…but they never do. That’s why most people never make any lasting gains in the market. They get too bullish at tops, and too bearish at bottoms.
I try to behave 180 degrees opposite of what the majority of you do. I try to get too bullish at bottoms and too bearish at tops.
Gary,
I am short Oil and recently doubled-down on the sort position too.
I did expect $49……then close shorts.
But oil has been propped up by a rising vertical stock market, as well as a harsh winter in US,….seems to still be propped up……..just would not break down.
My worry is, with NAZ going to 10,000 all but a given, how could oil be allowed to correct?
What number you have for a normal cycle ICL for oil?
Goldman Sachs also came out with a$82.50 pie in the sky forecast for oil !
An ICL will almost always retrace 38 to 50% of the previous rally.
OK, in that case $55 could easily be in the cards.
You have timing on this? Maybe an oil video if you are so inclined.
amzn up 6% in after hours trading. apple is down a bit. googl down 3.5%. nflx and fb flat. tqqq is at 173.5 up 0.80. Not bad.
Damn! good think I did not sell my wife’s AMZN and FB.
Who knew?
Pretty soon they’re gonna have AI robots delivering stuff to our doors. Much like Sophia.
Folks you just can’t take chances when you’re in the parabolic phase. Price may reach oversold before it turns back up, but then again it may not. Check out again what happened in November of 99.
you could be right Gary. tqqq is now at 175.56 up 2.84. I guess those interested in tqqq are already in before close today. Friday’s close could be revealing. Likely, the only game in town for a while is nas. Oils/ golds go to the back burner for now.
I miss our bitchcoin guru Ted. What’s his views on bitchcoin? Lol. That’s the price you pay when you throw commonsense out of window
We should probably go easy on the bitcoin newbs. Everyone was a greenhorn once, and the bitcoin story/frenzy was a powerful magnet for the unwashed.
Iβve made plenty of mistakes in this game as I paid my tuition to βhigher learningβ.
But Iβve got to admit, this (the bitcoin mania) was a particularly entertaining show!
Give them time to lick their wounds and learn their lessons, we all deserve that donβt we?
Toady we have a textbook perfect example of a coil in JNUG.
The coil had to unwind to somehow meet GOLD uprising.
Though the manipulators have been punishing the miners/JNUG.
They are well behind.
Perhaps they are in a coil to also unwind, to unwind to heaven.
Hopefully so.
Gary –
Lost in the comments above, what’s the count on the US$?
Day 46 tomorrow.
OK thanks, so it’s almost done going down?
I’m guessing a 5-7 day bloodbath phase into a final ICL.
OK, I see the Bear flag, we’ll see how it works out from here.
Foolsgold,
It’s pretty clear you’re just another troll, but I’ll make you the same bet I made Goild. $1000 says the Nasdaq reaches 10,000 by July.
My email is at the top of the page, you can respond whether or not you accept.
Let’s see if you have the balls to back up your crap.
That Gary is offering the same bet we made, speaks highly of him.
It shows that his statements are one to one with his true beliefs.
He truly believes in the bubble, which indeed is taking place.
It has been an awesome call.
Realize that the Nasdaq was around 6500 back in August when he took the bet.
Gary, any thoughts on a spring blood bath for gold? Noticed tonight that both DUST and UUP very oversold and close to crossing weekly slow STO’s.
A two year comparison between GLD and XAU showing the manipulation, the miners lagging and exuberance.
A textbook perfect coil on JNUG today unwinding under the pressure of a rising gold.
“A textbook perfect coil on JNUG today unwinding under the pressure of a rising gold.”
Your chart is missing one very important fundamental — There is no ANT attatched to it. It can’t be textbook as long as the Ant is missing.
Yes! Gartman oscillator turning green! LOL
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2018/02/01/stock-rally-is-nearing-end-oil-has-peaked-heres-where-to-invest.html
Getting close to oversold on RSI.
The bitcoin bag holders are now starting to understand the party is over and anyone who entered late has lost big and now has no hope of ever recovering.
Those that still have some profits need to sell immediately while they still can and switch over to the stock bubble.
Most wonβt be able to sell and admit they missed the top. They will just hang on until theyβve lost it all then weβll start hearing calls for a government bail out.
And there will be no bailout, just crying for one. Chitcoin will hit $6K before next Tuesday, maybe even today.
So far this has been exceptionally mild. Price hasn’t even retraced 23% yet.
Folks don’t lose focus. Keep the big picture in mind. Most traders let their emotions take over during corrections and miss the buying opportunity.
This is an extremely right translated cycle. That means this is not a major top. It’s a brief profit taking event, and a chance to buy, add or reload at lower prices before the next leg up.
Good day, I hope.
This does not look good for the miners.
Just got rid of my 1500 JNUG shares, 1000 GDX shares, and as soon as the market opens I will sell the 3000 reminding GDX shares.
Hope not to have made a mistake but to me things look bad for the miners.
RTTPD, this time there is an ANT for your delight π
Why, what changed overnight, they are basically flat?
Short term sentiment is slowly working off the bullish extremes from January. Assuming we end the day down we should be back below 30% bulls.
If we can make it down to 20% bulls that would be a good spot to launch the next leg of the parabolic phase.
Sentiment is the fuel for rallies. Bearish sentiment is what drives a rally as bears have to give up and chase.
Well,
I had not paid attention recently to cycles and the overall picture.
Last night I paid attention. JNUG from a day trading point of view has been quite disappointing for longs.
It prefers to fall than to rise. The miners have been in a channel since 2013 and they just hit the top of their current cycle. See the comparison of GLD and XAU above. TIP is diving. USD may bounce back soon.
GOLD is at or near the top of its cycle. Conclusion the odds are against the miners. Therefore ACT as an ANT.
This is not the scenario where I should keep $100K in the miners.
You are getting bearish 35 days into a daily cycle. It’s a little late to be getting bearish.
I tend to think we’re going to get a stretched cycle as the euro runs up to test the bear trend line, but if not then gold should complete a final DCL within the next 5-10 days.
I wouldn’t be getting super bearish at this point.
I think gold will at least test the baby bull high during this intermediate cycle.
Would that not be an additional 5 days left towards DCL? Since we had the DCH about 5 trading days ago?
I should add that the miner also sleep with the SM.
If the SM retracts the miners should feel it.
OK Gary, I will wait a bit before getting rid of the reminding 3K GDX shares.
Thanks.
Gold is falling like a rock. And, I am stuck with some jnug!
It don’t luk gud at all.
We still have plenty of room to go before we get to the max complacency stage of the bull.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-timers-just-gave-stock-investors-a-reason-to-celebrate-2018-02-02
What a beautiful morning. Love the sight of gold getting hammered π
Ooops!
Gary, nasdaq does seem to be forming shoulder-head-shoulder as someone has pointed out before.
I’d have to squint really hard and stand really far back from my computer to find a H&S pattern on the Nasdaq chart.
We’re just getting a completely normal profit taking event to clear sentiment and set the stage for the next leg up. And so far it’s been exceptionally mild.
I hope so. Now I do have some serious money riding this bet. I would hate to lose this one. I hope 10k it is.
Otherwise I will have to give up single malt and start drinking wine.
Wow!
After selling JNUG/GDX I went to continue sleeping.
Came back and GOLD/JNUG indeed is down.
JNUG will likely hit at least $15.2 which it hit day before yesterday.
I still have a bit of profit on GDX so I will go ahead and get rid of 2000 more shares.
Leave only 1K shares.
We may see a turnaround as the algos/ traders realize this. the earnings number is not what it seems to be.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-02/not-so-fast-heres-full-story-about-those-surging-hourly-earnings
Welcome to the matrix where the only thing that matters is whether U believed the latest headline, if not , no worries , we’ll have a new one in 30 minutes to cleanse your brain.
Christian,
Is this the time for oil?
π
Oil? Not even at a weekly low. It will probably close up for the day.
Gold and the stock market seem to rise and fall together lately.
A further drop to 1321 and then recover by the end of the day is in the cards.
i am thinking 1330 . might be the low but who knows.
1330 is not going to be the DCL. You guys are dreaming. Gold delivered the sweetest topping process I have seen in some time, everyone had more than adequate time to exit leverage. Now comes the pain, and make no mistake, gold is going to make you cry blood.
thanks for your hyperbole, but it will not be causing me to cry anything.
LOL, Nada likes to call every wiggle, so a 1.2% move to him seems huge, but weΒ΄re all just trading different time frames, sizes, and methods.
” gold is going to make you cry blood.” Oooops. That that is scary. How bad will it get Nada for someone who is loaded with gold/golds?
Depends if you are holding leverage. Personally, I don’t trust anything more than the first daily cycle in gold with the wackiness we have seen in the currencies. The dollar (bear market or not) is potentially going to bring a world of hurt out of its ICL.
I should have listened to you.
Too late now. I will continue to hold.
Where is jyoung and his Hurst cycle analysis? He bought the top in SM and also missed the call on gold, again.. as always they run away and hide when they get it wrong.
It looks like that the 25-26the of Jan time window picked the high of this rally. The Gold/Silver ratio is moving higher aggressively today and that may well be signaling a big drop in the precious metals.
Morning palobar. I went in two days early from the top, but my March puts are loving gold’s price action. I think a retrace of .618 is in order.
I think you are going to make a nice profit. Well done and good luck.
Goild, are you making big bucks with UVXY? You sure nailed that one when you said it was ready to spike, up 13 percent today.
I actually have a profit on LABD. It sure doesn’t go up as fast as it goes down. Should I take the profit and run or get greedy for more?
I am tempted to buy silver. How much lower will it go?
We have not even had 1 day below the 10 day moving average yet in gold. The hunt for the DCL is going to take 5-10 days. Buying now is not a wise choice. Let’s not forget, the dollar is coming out of an *ICL*.
JJ,
No I am not in. I did take $1000 out of UVXY.
I new that the very first SM drop was worth chasing.
Now I sold my 250 shares of SQQQ for a few bucks of profit.
I have a gain today and I am happy.
I have no loss so far π
5-10 more days of this huh?
SIL is going to retest its December low, if not break it. The selloff since the DCH has been severe.
When it breaks below the cloud on the daily chart, it is cooked. In theory it’s possible for it to rebound from here, but that does not square up with Gary’s notion that we get 5-10 days more of this.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p03043562151&a=575243826&listNum=1
The 15% correction call. So far so good. We’ve only just begun.
The weekly SIL chart is even more ominous. Barring a decent rally into the close, there is going to be major follow through to the downside. The lower bollinger band is ready.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p06351523739&a=575245287&listNum=1
The yen is already back to good old 110.
Gold has a lot of breathing room thanks to last month’s rally. silver, not so much. It’s the poor silver miners that are (likely) going to new lows though.
Option data out for next week. Implied volatility is pricing in a move lower, surprise surprise. The dollar is going to kick up some trouble.
Same deal with EXK. If it breaks below the cloud, it’s going to be an ugly slog into March. It needs to hold on here for dear life.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EXK&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p96033135851&a=575250142&listNum=1
This is the royal road to make money!!!
Singing has returned to the Mayflower.
Hymns of expectation and deliverance fill the galleys.
Cruel January has passed & the Bounty of February & March beckon.
We could still get some death throes from January for a week or two still ( just like when you kill a rattle snake they will jerk around in the cooler for days without a head).
Weβre stoked and excited for you all to bear witness to our Thanksgiving thatβs coming up…..
i hope you still have some profits and are not needing bitcoin to return to its previous high. you might never get there and then we will worry about all the Bit Sailors lost at sea on the Mayflower
Worry not RR.
I just noticed an old ticket stub about a week back – I think it was 78 maybe 79 gotta look again. I remember the suspense of Dave Kingman walking up to the plate against Tom Seaver.
Thatβs whats happening now.
Just as Kingman took Seaver downtown to left center so to will Bitcoin go new ATH & hit forecasted mid-0point of $25K in June (50K EOY).
The world is changing fast & itβs most apparent here…..on the Mayflower. Itβs not a warning itβs an invitation.
http://pressemitteilungen.pr.uni-halle.de/index.php?modus=pmanzeige&pm_id=2830
Time to get stoked !
LOL good stuff Americano. Good luck on your voyage. I will have the strumpet’s waiting at Plymouth Rock for you and Ted. Meanwhile, new projections off the 200 day moving average for you to snuggle with.
As always Nada,
Thanks for your support. Glory is to be HAD.
Not pined for.
Youβre always welcome on…..
The Mayflower.
I hope you are right Americano. Honestly I wish everybody success with every investment.
With that said I don’t see see anything glorious with the recent price action in Bitcoin.
I use Median lines and it does not good at all, nor has it since Dec 15th, especially if price breaks down around the 8200 level tonight.
If you want to kill some time I made a video about my Bitcoin Analysis on YouTube https://youtu.be/vmuWO9EF_3M let me know what you think if you check it out.
Other than that, goodluck.
P.s. what happened to Ted??
The silver miners were clearly predicting this smash in silver for weeks. How low will she go?
We are at the neckline of the H&S patterns I have been predicting for GDX and AXU. We should get some sort of meager bounce soon to form the right shoulders. Let’s face it, for the last 7 years, all we see in the sector is H&S tops and they always trigger and reach their projected targets. The only countervailing factor this time is the bullish alignment of MAs on the daily charts. *If* this is a normal daily cycle, I would assume the neckline should hold.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p45099159996&a=575263926&listNum=1
Sell the rally time don’t buy the dips
The market quickly becoming short term oversold, so we will rally. What happens during a rally will be key to if this is just a spike down or a possible longer term drop. Buyers have pushed the limits of sanity. The collapse in Bitcoin and other crypto currencies is reflective of fear taking control among speculators. Fear among the fast money crowd is forcing selling to also emerge in the stock market.
When the market rallies, the buy the dips crowd will attempt to make a stand but the key will be does it make a new high? If it does not (me) technicians and trading programs will read this negatively. We could see liquidation in ETF’s emerge and efforts by short ETF’s to become increasingly short multiply adding additional selling pressure in the market.
It’s only a 10-15% correction dead ahead, 2500 S&P.
Just my take
Goild,
I need to borrow some ants ASAP. This method seems more efficient.
Gary – you’re not concerned about this massive TLT breakdown dragging markets down further, much deeper?
There is a H&S top on the TLT monthly chart that is forming. The neckline sits around 117 this month. If broken, would target about 100.
I see it, you see it, does Gary see it? He’s betting cold hard cash for Nasdaq parabolic rise (granted it just says July without a year so it could be July 2056)…
Christian, now a good time to reenter erx?
Yes, Christian used the funds he acquired from selling that ass on the Toronto streets last night and added his last tranche.
C’mon Nada,
I cant stop laughing now.
Something to think about if you are a yen bull.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84911441329&a=575269246&listNum=1
TLT massive H&S:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99496524534&a=575269963&listNum=1
MasterLuc, the Russian TA guy that called BOTH top & BOTTOMS on TradingView has JUST unveiled his latest chart showing the journey of the Mayflower.
https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/hg0S8xjw-historical-3-looks-to-be-completed/
I hope he is right, but I doubt it. Gold is and will always be king.
In any event, broken parabolas are at best slogs, as you ride the slope of hope. If there truly is something to bitcoin, then it is going to be basing for a long long time. I previously stated I don’t think it has any intrinsic value other than as a medium of exchange and therefore fundamentally fails as money. I think that will be borne out in time.
actually spanky, Bitcoin has failed as a medium of exchange. Too slow. Therefore, it is not a store of value or a medium of exchange, so what is it….a baubble or trinket at best.
Yep, only tokens that are too expensive and slow to trade, can be stolen from somebody on the other side of the world, and have yet to feel the heavy hand of regulation.
SIL is sitting on the 144 WMA. Would not be positive if we get a weekly close below that level. Nevertheless, it should provide support and act as a magnet if price drops below.
SLV is also in the exact same position with respect to the 144 WMA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p38552945141&a=575272771&listNum=1
Primetime,
Here you go!
https://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/worlds-deadliest-ngs/deadliest-army-ants
That is nastaaay!!
Nada – Loving your chart work again π
where are you finding these BTC charts l like so much?
Morning isavage. That chart was provided by a user named wave-trader on tradingview. There was a lot more to the chart, but I modified to show what I thought was relevant. Lots of guys on TV trade bitcoin, so some interesting charts to view.
Gold rallying like the champ that it is. The final low may be a ways off, but a reversal candle should be a sign of underlying strength.
That’s just gold sucking in more longs. Misery loves company.
Maybe. Maybe gold crashes back into the $1200s. Who knows. I guess we have 5-10 days to find out.
Gary – perhaps you put this video out today to re-assure folks of the bigger picture as the market begins to have its first real correction in a while. It seems the dollar is bouncing here while commodities and the market are correcting. How far do you think “they” will allow the markets to drop? SOXL & TQQQ should be ripe for picking once this drop completes.
It’s ON…
Targets
SPX 2700 or lower.
Dow 24900 or lower.
Hell yeah, thats a good start. Lets remove the 2018 move in 2 weeks.
YEP!
This what is called a Break in da Bubble factory …………or a short-term parabola paralysis
SO MUCH for gold rallying with crashing stocks !!!
They are making sure gold is taking it on the Chin too today…
Freaking OIL is still hanging on WHY??, and being short Oil is so frustrating right now.
Oil is waiting for Christian to capitulate, then the hunt for the ICL will begin. Not a minute sooner.
Done for the day! π
Have a nice weekend guys!
It’s possible today’s smash in SLV is setting up a massive explosion to the upside. Would not want to see SLV drop too far below15.60 or so. This inverse H&S projects to about $18.50 on SLV.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p11239314526&a=575279439&listNum=1
Now youΒ΄re talking, weΒ΄re going to have to change your name to Spunky. π
The symmetry of this formation so far is pretty remarkable. So expect some weakness next week and then I expect SLV to make a serious move to the upside.
Last week I pointed out the top in gold when Spanky posted his first ever bullish post. This is not the Spanky I know and love, so my advice is add shorts on every bull post.
Lol. It’s true.
I should point out that based on the monthly chart, at least for silver, it’s quite possible it completely falls apart and heads for new bear market lows. Wouldn’t shock me in the least.
I guess this is the end of the easy money in the traditional markets, oil, gold, SM, Nasdaq, etc.
From now on you got to have guts, make smart bets, or do the unnatural thing of shorting.
No easy money, not anymore.
Goild – I’m still with Gary. looking for a rip as soon as the all clear is given. Then spring summer bigger selloff.
Have been covering my XIV shorts & and adding to my UVXY short – so money where my mouth is π
Good weekend to you also
isavage,
Glad to hear from you.
Best wishes in your trading and have a very nice weekend!
Hopefully sunny as you are in London, right?
Hey Goild, you have an active bet with Gary on 10k Nasdaq by July 1st, correct?
Yes he does. If you role up you will find a confirmation, after Gary challenged Foolsgold to the same bet.
Sure am glad I know a red flag when I see it and can heed the warning! Volume is running heavier than yesterday so at this point it is another distribution day but we have an hour and a half till close for confirmation.
It’s confirmed – another distribution day! I fully expect to see IBD put the markets “in correction” in the nightly report.
The greater the conviction the less likely it is to come true.
Quite the candle in SLV today. We’ll see how she closes. Hard to envision any higher high during this IC after today’s slaughter.
So much for the theory that the metals would rally when the stock and bond markets crash.
Same as it ever was.
Indeed! I bought USLV last July at 10.59 after reading Marshall Swing’s article about commercials going long and the anatomy of a reversal. My goal was to just let it ride and I had a nice profit at one time but wasn’t really watching it that close because I wanted to believe I could hold on for a while. I ended up selling for a few cents profit in December. Here we are in February 2018 and it is back to that level AGAIN.
SLV has hit its 50% retrace. Next up is the 61.8% retrace at 15.46 which looks like it will be in the bag soon.
STOCKS: This what You call a Break in da Bubble factory β¦β¦β¦β¦
or a short-term parabola paralysis………………………
and SO MUCH for gold rallying with crashing stocks !!!
They are making sure gold is taking it on the Chin too todayβ¦
Freaking OIL is still hanging on WHY??, and being short Oil is so frustrating right now.
Sure would be nice for us savers for the 10-year treasury to hit 5%+….doubt the Fed will allow that though.
shit must be bad if metals can’t even catch a bid.
I just came back and oh my goodness….
Nada, yes we have a pending bet of $1000 on Nasdaq climbing to 10K.
Good news for Bitclowns.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-02/bank-america-jp-morgan-bar-crypto-purchases-credit-card
ACIA is one that had a huge new issue run in 2016 and then last year gave it all back. It appears it bottomed this week. I was going to buy yesterday at the middle BB and before I knew it the thing had blown thru that level. Today it pulled back to middle band and found support. It is another one to put on your watch list as a possible buy candidate – they develop high speed modules for cloud infrastructure. HRC is another one to watch.
Dow down 600 pts now. I would put that into the “serious” category now. lol.
Stocks, bonds and gold all down big. I guess the safe haven play is the USD, which isn’t really up that much at all today.
Why the “f” should gold drop if stocks *and* bonds are crashing??? Makes absolutely no sense whatsoever to me.
Days like this clearly show that the miners are also in bed with the SM.
My sympathies for those who have lost today.
Had I not sold my shares my loss right now would have been around $5k.
Goild it is bad. This whole dammed week has been horrible. My paper losses are huge.
But, then it is only money.
FREAKING OIL is not breaking down.
Today seems like a hail mary talk up the dollar day to me by the FED – could be the FED and UST are on different pages?
My bet is that GOLD will be the ultimate beneficiary as washington DC politics sinks below the swamp water credibility line.
There is literally nothing left in the playbook at this point but manipulate markets – nothing.
The real economy is not expanding – we are in a debt death-spiral no one wants to talk about.
Healthcare malfeasance will kill millions if not fixed…
SO let’s get out there and give 3 cheers for the greenback,lol.
Things are about to get real around here!!
Stocks: Parabola Pothole
Vertically?
Stocks: Vertical Vomit.
Gary, are you ok???
Here comes the PPT Mafia Bosses…
Fedβs Williams tries to ease market fears the central bank will turn aggressive on rate hikes
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-williams-tries-to-ease-market-fears-the-central-bank-will-turn-aggressive-on-rate-hikes-2018-02-02?mod=bnbh
160 on HUI and I am going all in on JNUG
As mentioned earlier.. The dollar has arrived to stir up some trouble. Everyone pilling on at the 10 day moving average. Why? Oh its the dollar, its in bear. It can’t bounce. WRONG. Come Sunday night, she is going to pop above and start a short squeeze from hell. Gold will be back below 1300 by Wednesday.
I wonder how self proclaimed Hurt analyst jyoung is doing with his SM longs? Another one disappears on a horrible call. Fear not oil shorts, when the Dixie starts whistling, there is going to be hell to pay. God is great, muhahahahaha! Oh I almost forgot, my prediction of Shortin Sally’s return will soon arrive.
If we can extrapolate today’s action, for sure. Hell, it could be there sooner. It’s silver that is going to get absolutely smashed here given the very very negative divergence lately. Congrats on your short.
Silver absolutely pummeled into the close.
If gold has 5-10 more days of this crap, silver will be at new multiyear lows soon. Fun.
This is my S&P chart. I bought in today. However, my cheeks are clenched super tight. If we break the trend line, I think the S&P could see 2675 worst case scenario…but if Gary is right about the bubble, which I believe he is, then that won’t happen. Waiting for the BOW number at the eod.
Noteworthy:
NASDAQ losing less than other indices.
LOOKS LIKE the FED is going to go aggressive on HIKES………….
When they come to deny it or alleviate the fears there is only one conclusion to be drawn:
They ARE going to go aggressive on HIKES as they see INFLATION in horizon…
Someone forgot to tell stocks that.
Silver is down 4% today. That’s pretty damn amazing.
Pushing Minus -700 points near closing…
Volume is finally kicking in on the miners. Would love to be a fly on the wall on the Subscription side.
Short Sally’s Return
You really are funny. You make me laugh on a day when I have lost (on paper) a huge amount of money.
Thank you.
I pray that is the limit of damage to the miners.
STOCK MARKET goes UP, Gold goes down.
STOCK MARKET crashes down, Gold goes down.
You can’t lose folks!
Same as it ever was.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1wg1DNHbNU
10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 is not out of the question.
I believe you but I am left with no money to invest.
Nada: For Bitcoin, yes. LOL.
Oh come on Nada this is just a stocks parabolic puke, it shall pass.
The story is really not stocks today, the story is why gold went down along with a stock dive…..and also why oil did not dive too.
Do you think gold IC has topped?
How much money are you losing on metals? I have feeling silver will take out Dec 2017 lows.
My miners were down about 12% this week.
I also think the December ICL is toast at this point. But I am not selling until gold breaks down completely.
That’s why he is MIA right now. At this point (in real time) it is just a correction and it is best to be on the sidelines until it plays out. We could see the markets bottom somewhere in here and we could see them tank even further and the best way to find out is let the markets tell us (and they will). Problem for Gary at this point is for several days now he has made anyone who would listen feel like and amateur if they didn’t go all in on the “buying opportunity and dangerous to be on the sidelines mantra”. I remember seeing golddigger commenting that he was buying UDOW and TQQQ just a few days ago and he has got to be WAY under water unless he sold. If he was here to get advice on when to buy then he no doubt has any clue on when to sell and has most probably taken a huge paper loss at this point and is waiting for Gary to give his some hope.
Thank GOD that the week has ended.
Vin,
Sorry to hear about it.
Have a nice weekend!
You have a great weekend as well.
Please, those of you who have no experience trading, please, please, do not bet the house on
the bubble.
Goild, is the the MIDDLE FINGER of the ant pointing to it? LOL
Anthonyo,
It appears so.
Have a nice weekend.
Been reading this and Gary sounded a little too cocky. So much for a mild drop in SPY. I doubt it rocket ships from here. Miners look like a better bargain now than the SPY and QQQ
Remember the time to buy is when you’re scared. So far we don’t even have anything that could be considered a “mild” pullback. The market hasn’t even retraced 38% of the recent rally.
That being said, nothing will change. The vast majority will get uber bearish right at the bottom and sell or sell short when they should be buying and getting positioned for the next leg up.
By the way the 38% retracement would be just about the same level as the bull market channel trend line.
There you are, was wondering when you would come in and do damage control. You are right at this point that it is could be nothing more than a correction but when you have advised folks to buy at much higher levels the markets have to make a huge move for them to just break even.
I’ve been out climbing all day.
Heck you’ve been through enough of these to know nothing unusual is happening. We’ve just barely reached oversold on the 5 day RSI. The cycle is extreme right translated. This is just a completely normal profit taking event after an exceptionally powerful intermediate rally. And so far it’s an exceptionally mild one.
5 day RSI.
In a previous video I discussed the possibility for a retest of the bull channel trend line.
Well, nearly 700 point drops are not “nothing unusual” but I will agree that I think the markets will be rebounding in the coming weeks, but I will be on the sidelines just in case we are wrong. This is where IBD’s philosophy of let the markets tell you where they are going as opposed to guessing and trying to pick bottoms. And yes I will miss the bottom but better safe than sorry when dealing with the money you spent your whole working career growing.
Well noted.
And I was Scuba Diving while everyone was loosing their shit Lol π
This is why I keep stressing the importance of having a hobby or two.. or as many as you want! Staring at the monitors all day every day will drain you of your vital energy β not good.
Gary, I am just glad to see a correction. A retracement to .618 would be a wet dream.
THAT, my friend would create panic :o)
Gary,
Is that trend line at about 2689 on the S&P? Thank you.
That play is passed now.
Gary,
Something is fishy smelly in the Interest Rate plan, bonds crashed today, stocks, oil and gold fell in tandem almost……….all pointing to some Fed hawkish plans to hike rates…………Fed henchman came out today mid-crash and reassured markets to the contrary..
Thoughts?
And one more thang: why is it that every time Gary Savage goes climbinm stocks gold etc dive?
Hummmmmm…..
I guess everyone seems determined to overlook the fact that historically stocks rise along with interest rates during the early stages of a rate hiking cycle.
This has nothing to do with interest rates. Seriously we are still at multi decade lows. This is a completely normal profit taking event after a very powerful intermediate rally.
The SPX will probably test the bull channel trend line.
The only thing that would worry me would be if we had a full on crash in the bond market. That may be coming but I seriously doubt it will be anytime soon.
Kept my calm and bought some NVDA and Boeing from metals profit.. everything was monkey hammered today.
Gary,
Trend line is 2689 on S&P. Correct??
LOL I go climbing 3-4 times a week. I don’t recall stocks and gold falling that often.
Hummmm OKay Curiouser and curiouser.
Looks like it was a day where being long pretty much anything was a bust. This is the hardest SM correction we have seen in a long time and zero signs of intervention by the banks. Silver smashed down 3.6% for no good reason. UVXY was the place to be, up a whopping 27%. Goild, I hope you were in on that big win.
What do y’all think about this chart showing the Dow at major resistance level.
http://kimblechartingsolutions.com/2018/02/dow-testing-70-year-breakout-level-says-joe-friday/
As it is testing this breakout level, monthly momentum is at lofty levels. The only other time monthly momentum has been this high in the past 100-years was 1929, 1955, 1987 and 2000.
I looked at this week as a blessing. Did some rearranging of the portfolio. Greatly improved some metal positions but my old turkey positions did take a hit. That is ok due to a 3-5 year investing window.
Improved positions today:
UDOW 163 shares at $109
TQQQ 164 shares at $173
676 shares USLV at 11.07
63 shares of SVXY at $109
2 tranches of short oil
16 tranches of old turkey silver miners
So now the truck is loaded for the parabolic move and I will run with this long term barring a sm crash and burn.
I was 50 % cash last week took lot of profits waiting for this pullback . I will start buying Monday on words.
We went too far too fast . We were up close to 7 % in all indexes we are down only 3 % YTD.
Don,
I new that the first drop was the one to be in.
So I chased UVXY and at the top was able to make $1K out of 500 shares.
Pretty much crumbs for what it could have been. It is hard for me to hold into shares.
Have a nice weekend!
The shoe shine boy, the DOW on Times cover and now this current smt byline. The market does speak. vindicated
Long and strong JNUG, and happy to say so on a very unpopular day to admit to being long. Happy to see sentiment for gold curdling like sour milk around here, just means we are that much closer to a turnaround, whether it’s next week or months from now. 2018 is gold’s year to break 1400, be sure of that. Happy trading to all! π
If the Gold/Silver breaks out from here (monthly chart) you maybe be surprised from the PMs.
You’re holding JNUG and are willing to wait “months” for a turnaround. Good luck with that.
Ha, indeed I am! I believe in bravery, and like Warren Buffet I am smart enough to know I am NOT smart enough to trade every up and down. Gold is destined to go up, and I am holding.
This was the heaviest volume week for JNUG since the week of 6/16/17 and it was a DOWN week not up. JNUG closed near the lows of the week after crashing thru the 200 day and then 50 day – outright sell signals. If you think things will be ok anytime soon you are in for a rude awakening and need to do some studying of how stocks go up and down and what constitutes a sell signal. The last thing you need is to be parking money in a triple leveraged decaying investment vehicle. Take your losses and wait for another buying opportunity. You can take a small loss and make it up a lot easier than sitting thru a 50, 60 or 70% loss. Since Gary called the low back in December JNUG did not have one week with above average volume until last week and then it closed in the lower half of the weekly trading range indicating all was not well. This week we got the confirmation of that.
That’s ridiculous. You missed a 22% rally (in GDX, 3X that in NUGT) because you were waiting for volume confirmation. Then when you got it you ended up buying right at the top of the rally.
This just proves what I’ve been saying all along. Many rallies start and progress on lite volume. Volume isn’t a major factor in determining whether a rally will immediately fail or not. Clearly the rally in miners did not fail. It produced a very nice run over a 5 week period of time.
It also proves that most traders will do just like you did. They will wait for confirmation and about the time they get it that’s when a pullback starts.
You are using strategies that worked in the past, but more often than not fail in our modern markets.
Gary do you think GDX holds onto its December low?
It will easily hold above the December low. The cycle is right translated.
Bubbles and Bloodbaths are some of the most overused terms on this blog but today Bloodbath would be definitely be appropriate.
BB Crash Trade on the spx & ndx. Maybe a bounce and then kaboom for the buy of the year.
Absolutely, we are going to set the stage for unsophisticated money to start flooding into the market.
I’ll get a new video out shortly.
One of the freakiest 1 week candles I have ever seen (in context). Talk about a pump and dump. The weekly chart was looking gorgeous for the last couple of years. I mean textbook perfection. Now, not so much.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92214799791&a=575348023&listNum=1
Full of penny-stock junior miners with nothing more than a shovel, bucket and offices in their basements.
LMAO…that is true.