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Thanks Gary!
Bad news events that cause market sell offs have for the most part all turned out to be buying opportunities in the long run if the markets are in an uptrend. We have a cluster of distribution days that at this point are telling us that institutional investors are selling. There are 5 distribution days for the NASD and 4 for the S & P 500. Markets are under pressure and warrant some caution. The buy the dip mentality just got a wake up call.
This is hardly even a dip yet (-4%). But buying the dip is going to be the correct strategy.
TQQQ and UDOW are down 10.92% and 12.17% respectively.
You do know those are triple leveraged ETF’s?
I do know that. You are telling us that SPY is only down 3.88% and that is true but you didn’t recommend SPY. Do you remember recommending TQQQ and UDOW as trades?
We’ve been mostly in leverage since August. It’s why the stock portfolio has done so well and outperformed the S&P.
When everyone was calling for a crash in September & October I was telling people this was the period where the market would start to trade vertical. As I said in my previous video we knew there would be a pullback at some point. I just didn’t have any idea how to anticipate it anymore as cycles and sentiment don’t work very well if at all during a bubble. So I decided the best strategy was to just get in Old Turkey and accept that at some point we would have to hang on through a correction.
Thank you Bluebellkid for a well intended warning. But, did you expect the group on this board to heed it? Good luck.
Looks like you are not familiar with cult mentality. Though they say that a few in every cult do see GOD! LOL!
btw I am a staunch follower of Gary’s advise and have bet heavily on his scenario. Last week was bad. In fact the losses almost equaled the profits made earlier based on his advise. Before I get creamed let me hurry up to say that I don’t act in unison with the changes he makes. First, he is too fast for me. Second, my “left-brain” thinking gets in the way before using my hard earned dough and also because I don’t like to blame others for my losses.
In short hopefully Gary will turn out to be right in spite of the involved risk. Thanks again.
This is from Investopedia:
Although the relationship between interest rates and the stock market is fairly indirect, the two tend to move in opposite directions: as a general rule of thumb, when the Fed cuts interest rates, it causes the stock market to go up; when the Fed raises interest rates, it causes the stock market as a whole to go down. But there can be no guarantee about how the market will react to any given interest rate change the Fed chooses to make. For example, in 2013, in defiance of conventional wisdom, both interest rates and the S&P 500 rose significantly. Economists are still trying to figure that one out.
Read more: How Do Interest Rates Affect the Stock Market? | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/investing/how-interest-rates-affect-stock-market/#ixzz560XPd5DV
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook
From June 1999 to Feb 2000 the 10 year went up 15%, yet the Nasdaq went up 75%.
It’s less about the direction than the rate of the move. Rates are increasing too quickly now (10yr. 15% since Jan. 1st alone).
If that continues (which it almost certainly won’t because it’s crisis-creating material) it’s bad for the market, but if they stabilize and only increase gradually it seems the market can continue to increase until the absolute level of rates causes economic activity to slow.
That might not play out with the 30 year bond bubble ending, capital will be moving into commodities and equities. Conservation of mass.
Things got so overdone we have to have our 10 – 15 % correction. Will get a rally but rallies need to be sold. A change in character for the market. When fear is what is being served I’ll be buying. The times they are a changing.
So basically you are determined to make the same mistake all over again?
Yes, I’m constantly making mistakes. However, selling most of my stocks the last few weeks and buying some hedges: ERY,DUST,TZA and QID does not seem to be one of them. Also off to a rousing start on the 2500 ish S&P target.
I don’t see that you made any changes in your challenge positions???
Guilty, negligence.
I’ve been reading a few of your posts on and off over the past several months Bluebellkid and I finally figured out what you’re doing wrong. You think with the LEFT SIDE of your brain (the analytical side) when you should be spending more time with the RIGHT SIDE of your brain (the creative/emotional side).
Understand that.. the left side of the brain wants logic and/or common sense, facts, fundamentals that will hold the test of time when in actuality Markets are mostly driven by human emotions. Yes of course.. a “one day event” can move the market one way or another but ultimately, the real “mover and shaker” is the retail trader’s emotional hodgepodge.
The more you start tapping into the right side of the brain, the more you’ll understand the true driving force behind the Market 🙂
Not picking on you by the way.. Just giving you some perspective 🙂
Christian, excellent analysis that is the exact way the market works.
Christian, I see you’re as crazy as I am shorting oil for the same reason… Also, logic is in the eye of the beholder. You and I see that our logic is good by shorting oil (and in my case also betting on the however brief dollar strength for the next few weeks). I have to say it was not wise on my part and probably the hardest I’ve had to work for so little reward
I’m left handed maybe that explains it.
I like bluebellkid comments.
Keep in mind that we all here are very different and so are the motivations.
BBK appears to exercise prudence and to play by the book.
It is a good model.
Money is difficult to come by. You do not think so? Just try to borrow it.
He stresses volume and sure volume is king in this business.
For a good reason all charts show volume as a prime item.
Protecting the assets when your working years are ending or have ended is a priority.
Putting money in the 3X miners is really for sophisticated investors, meaning those who have experienced substantial losses and know the meaning of risk, and most importantly are trained to act and do act to follow the market. In this business is not sufficient to know, or to be able to act, you got to have the training, so that the acting naturally follows the thinking. Of course, thinking shaped by successful trading.
As per the inverse relationship between bonds and stocks, yes it is classic.
But it does not hold in these times. As the interest rates are so low, bonds are not at all a threat to stocks, and the inverse relationship breaks down.
Once the interest rates are around 5%-6% definitely, bonds become of interest, and the relationship sets in . But not when the interest rates are low 1%-2%.
Money is hard to come by and I am retired so living off my money.
This market has more leverage than any time in history. Another quick 2 or 3 percent down could cause enough panic to trigger a genuine crash.
Gary seems to be counting on “FED” won’t let that happen. In fact it is more like “FED” can’t let that happen.
This article published a few days ago nailed it: http://www.acting-man.com/?p=52084
We are in late stage blow-off territory
Remember, sentiment can change quickly and for no apparent reason.
We’re going to be laughing at this article in a couple of weeks as just another top caller that got it wrong.
I’ll say it again. Tops occur during left translated cycles, not extreme right translated cycles.
Bubble tops occur with price stretched 40-60% or more above the 200 DMA. The Nasdaq was a measly 17%.
At a bubble top the ROBO ratio will hold extreme levels for several months. It has just barely poked into bearish levels only recently and nowhere near the kind of complacency typical of the 2007 top and certainly not even vaguely close to the last bubble in 2000.
Bubbles will typically rally 100% or more in a year or less. It’s taken the Nasdaq a year and a half to go 50%.
When we see the kind of rabid bullishness exhibited by the bitcoin traders, when we see little old ladies in the grocery store talking about the stock market, and everyone you work with is bragging about how smart they are and how much money they are making in the stock market then we can start to get worried.
The market is doing exactly what I told you it was going to do. The first bubble was in bitcoin. That bubble has popped and the liquidity is now going into the stock market. Once that bubble pops we should see the next bubble in commodities and especially gold.
Everything is unfolding perfectly except when we get a shock day like Friday emotion takes over and our mind starts to panic. But if one calms down, takes a step back and looks at the big picture you can see nothing unusual is happening.
I tried to make people see this with the video. Hopefully a few people will listen to me and try something different this time instead of making the same mistake as every other ICL during this bull market.
Where does the capital go every time the market sells off, the $. Logic dictates next time will be different though, right?
Looking at the big picture
We are just starting the greed stage.
Gary —–
Have you no pitty for the gold-bugs here?
How come we/they didn’t get a video and pep talk?📢
The metals are getting close to their final DCL as well.
WRONG Mister GMoney!! ……..and by the way this is a very old and tired and TRITE chart by the way. If I see this relic of a chart one more time I swear I will barf.
Having said that, we are not even fully into the “Media Attention” phase yet! Not even “Greed” yet!
Most retail investors and barber shop customers, and sheeple are still OUT of stock market.
Modernize your thinking people! Same old garbage as I saw in the 90s won’t cut it anymore today.
I concur we are in the greed stage but getting close to delusional IMHO. As far as “New Paradigm” we already have that: Debt Doesn’t Matter. For the tech bubble it was Earning Don’t Matter and for the real estate bubble it was Housing Prices Always Go Up.
That big picture chart looks like bitcoin to me.
Bitcoin was stretched 240% above its 200 day moving average at the top.
At the January high the Nasdaq was 17% above it’s 200 day moving average.
Maybe you need to take another look at that long term chart.
Your graph is excellent I just disagree with the “you are here” indicator. I think we are more at the media attention area.
But that’s why investing is great you make your guess, I make mine. That’s the thing about how some people here try to analyze Gary and tell him he’s wrong. The facts are he has posted his results and they have not.
I agree. This economy has barely begun to take off. Which is why I think Gary has this one right.
Thank you, Gary.
I’ll try to catch the next bottom/dip.
Actually I shorted some stocks right before the jobs report
and want to close those positions, to reopen long positions and to short VIX
at first signs of a bottom (bullish candles, oversold RSI etc).
Timing is important.
Hi Gary
When do you think gold will bottom in this DCL?
Cheers Jeremy
Gold should move up this week by Friday to 1359 – 1365; most likely to 1359. Then the rise is over. Gold should then proceed its decline (USD rising from 88.4) until March 21 fed meeting. GDXJ will decline to 27.
There’s no panic yet, yes it was a big day but I doubt if it has scared too many out of the market yet, lets have a 200 point up day followed by another dip for a few days and get sentiment washed out.
I’m on the sidelines having missed the last bit of the leg up and was waiting for an ICL to re-enter. dropped out of jnug and entered a 5% SCO position.
95% on the sidelines, I havent been that for a loong time.
Well I’d hardly say there is no panic. The short term optimism index has only been this low two other times in the last 20 years.
That being said, I think the odds are best for a bounce and then a lower low the week of the 12th. But I wouldn’t say the odds are huge. Maybe 60/40. 40% we made the low on Friday.
Great analysis. I think lows on a Friday are rare. We may see a bounce and lower low next week and then the vertical continuation. A swing low has a very high probability to stick, just like the swing low in December for the PMs. That worked out great!
I appreciate you sharing your thinking on the odds here. Somebody knows this run isn’t over. I created my own quest investment with Jan out-of-the-money SPY options as they were cheap with a decent open interest and spread. Tried to snag a couple more contracts Friday. They didn’t budge a whole lot. Neither did the out of the money QQQ’s.
Put Call Ratio
A contrarian sentiment indicator that helps determine major and short-term market bottoms.
The Put/Call Volume Ratio compares the total number of puts traded each day with the total number of calls. The ratio will surge above 1.0 when investors turn bearish and buy more puts than calls. A reading above 1.15 can confirm a positive reversal in the S&P 500 or Nasdaq, or follow-through day.
0.97 as of 2/2/2018
BULLS vs BEARS
A contrarian sentiment indicator that confirms market bottoms.
The Bulls vs. Bears weekly survey of newsletter writers is published by Investors Intelligence. When the percentage of bears crosses above the bulls, a market bottom is more likely.
BULLS: 66.00 % BEARS: 12.60 %
Put call ratio. Getting close. Notice these spike very quickly at bottoms. One more down day could complete this correction…or we could get the bounce and second leg down scenario that would push this out another week or two.
Investors intelligence is completely worthless as a stand alone sentiment tool. The ROBO ratio is much better IMO as it focuses on retail trader, buy to open put call ratio’s. At a final market top retail traders should get, and more importantly stay, maximum bullish for several months.
Based on extreme readings the AAII survey could just as well be saying we are in the middle of a bull market as a top. That’s the thing about these surveys. They become bullish at intermediate tops. If the rally was exceptionally powerful then they become extremely bullish.
The thing to look for is if they remain bullish during a correction. That is a sign that extreme complacency has developed and a final top may be forming.
At this time investors have very quickly jettisoned their bullish bias so the odds are high this is not a final top. It’s just another in a long like of intermediate corrections in an ongoing bull market.
Margin Debt
A contrarian sentiment indicator that has flagged three major market tops since the 1970s.
The year-over-year percentage change in margin debt can help flag major tops in bull markets. This contrarian sentiment indicator will exceed 55% when optimism runs rampant on Wall Street and investors are heavily borrowing money during the late stages of a bull market.
16.09% year over year as of November 2017
Well my opinion is that Gary is being far too cocky with his forecasts,..nobody is good enough to say when a parabola will end..I don’t buy the 40-60 percent above 200dma argument..just because it happened in 1999 doesnt mean its the norm. As Gary often says we don’t have free markets anymore..I think the past 10 years have been a grand new experiment and nobody has any clue how this will end and when it will end.
I don’t buy the argument that interest rates need to get to 5-6 percent to cause issues..we have had near zero or even negative interest rates around the world for almost ten years in a frantic effort to stop a depression hence I think the economy now is more dependant on ultra low interest rates than any time before. I think current interest rates are already a problem given how many businesses and consumers rely on boromwing money for free. How many people now are literally totally depenedant on buying anything with low monthly payments. The increase in interest rates over the past few months has been quite rapid and its the rate of increase thats more troubling.
We have broken record RSI values on some of the main indices..we have gone the longest in history without a 5 percent correction..we had the largest weekly inflow in equity etfs last week ever..we had the highest bullish sentiment in the investors sentiment survey in like 35 years and one of the lowest percentage of bears ever. This run over the past year has been unusual in many ways and lately the bullish signs have hit record extremes or multi decade extremes. So for Gary to come on here and practically guarantee the Nasdaq hirtting 10000 is really foolish in my opinion.
I am not saying we cant consolidate and go parabolic again..but to be so extremely confident is irresponsible. Its not now after 9 years and extreme bullish readings that you tell everyone that the market is guaranteed to jump.
I have heard similar statements from Gary before where he was very confident something would happen and it blew up in his face and then he blamed manipulation and so on. We shall see but I vividly remember in early 2016 when the markets were turning over and I mentioned I had bought many value stocks that had tumbled and Gary said that was irresponsible because we could see a full out crash and so on. And now after a mammoth run he is betting the farm on a 50 percent move in the Nasdaq..
So basically you are saying you are determined to make the same mistake as every other ICL. 🙂
Let me show everyone how ridiculous the maximum RSI argument is. Keep in mind this is a sign of extreme momentum, not a guarantee of a top.
Did any other periods of extreme momentum signal a final top?
“bullish signs have hit record extremes”
Simply not true. The Robo ratio has barely just reached bearish levels. Compare today’s levels to the last two bull market tops.
Wel there are many other indicators that are at extremes or records..your facvourite is the ROBO ratio but I pay attention to a record RSI value..a record never ever been seen before..thats kind of exceptional and unusual.
As I’ve already shown high RSI is a signal of extreme momentum, not a guarantee of a top.
Its a record RSI value..a record is not the same as extreme. This is an RSI value never seen ever!!! Its unusual..
We are obviously in the final euphoric parabolic phase of a third stock market bubble. When viewed with the benefit of the 200 day moving average as a mean regression line, it’s glaringly obvious just how dangerous this market has become.
Gary – May 2013
Hmmm..how did that extremely confident statement turn out..actually that statement would have been quite appropriate in January 2018
I’ve already said I vastly underestimated the power of QE and central bank intervention. It caused the 4 year cycle to evolve into a 7 year cycle.
Why would you think they are all of a sudden going to stop now? Fed heads were already out on Friday trying to calm the market. Don’t you think they will step in and intervene again if they deem it necessary?
Yet despite thousands of years of evidence that parabolas are never sustainable, investors invariably get suckered into buying into these moves and get caught when they inevitably crash.
This I can say with 100% certainty, this parabolic move in stocks is going to crash, just like every other parabolic move in history.
The smart investor will wait patiently on the sidelines and once the crash occurs the low risk trade will be to go long as the Fed will attempt to reflate the market. This is a virtually guaranteed strategy to make money, although very few people will have the patience to wait for the trade to develop.
The vast majority of traders will ignore the extremely risky environment, because his emotions make him think that he is getting left behind. He will buy into the parabola assuming that it will continue indefinitely (Does this sound familiar to the tech bubble and real estate bubble?).
Gary – May 2013.
Hmmm..he has changed his tune a lot since then.,.
Absolutely the parabolic move will crash… but at least wait till it forms before getting out.
Parabolas almost always gain 100% or more in a year or less. The Nasdaq has taken a year and a half to gain 50%. That’s not a mature parabola.
Parabolas can stretch 40-60% or more above the 200 DMA. At the January top the Nasdaq was 17%.
You are just in too big of a hurry to call the top. You are potentially going to miss the best part of the bubble. Or more likely you will hold onto your bearish bias until you can’t take missing any more of the rally and you will capitulate and buy right at the top.
I refuse to participate in parabolas..too dangerous..they are too volatile and technical analysis is basically useless..its pure gambling and its not the time to bet the farm and get incredibly cocky..
The time to get into parabolas is before they start. Why do you think I’ve been beating people over the head for over a year now to focus on the stock market?
When everyone else was chasing the bitcoin bubble after it was already very mature I kept trying to get people to take profits and transfer the gains into the next bubble in stocks.
Once this bubble gets mature I’ll start advising people to control greed, take profits and move on the the commodities market.
Anyone advocating playing a parabolic move is playing with fire and being totally irresponsible in my opinion. Your advice in 2013 was correct but you have been converted to the masses because of CB intervention which has convinced everyone that the SM can never crash..a very dangerous sentiment in my opinion.
When it crashes it will occur as a left translated cycle, not a cycle that tops on week 23.
Have you not been paying attention to the videos?
I dont think parabolas follow any techincal rules or cycle analysis IMO. Good luck with the left and right translated rules with a parabola. The DOW sure looked like a parabola in the past month or so literally going straifght up at the end and this after a record 9 year bull market..
Go look at the Nasdaq in 99-2000 to see what a real bubble looks like. keep in mind it took 20 years for that bubble to form. So to say this bull is old at only 9 years is absurd.
I haven’t looked at the Robo ratio in the past but it seems that even when the ratio just enters bearish it was a good time to exit or start pulling up stakes. The market either went flat or down, not worth the risk/reward for the little juice it may have left.
Except when we start to move into a final top, then the ratio can remain bearish for many months as extreme complacency develops.
Gary,
Are u going to ignore that the SPX has not even broken the weekly cycle trend line , which means it hasn’t even started to find its ICL yet.
Like I’ve said, I’m not sure rules that work during the middle phase of a bull market will work during a final parabolic phase.
In 2000 the ICL didn’t even come close to breaking the intermediate trend line. It only managed to push the five day RSI to oversold and then took off again.
Current RSI level
OK. I understand ur rationale.
I would be surprised if SM turns around that quickly. SVXY and AAPL were diverging for at least a week before the current swoon. Folks who followed these and other cognate indicators bailed out of tqqq/udow and other 3x etfs, in spite of Gary’s missives: not worth timing wiggles during a parabolic phase, sm will turn around and leave you behind in a blink, etc. 50% give up of the previous advance for tqqq is certainly not a wiggle. In 18 days, tqqq advanced 28.6% (4Xdow), with aaple dropping out of race and google panting for breath. This was clearly not sustainable with declining momentum to boot. Put stock option and future option player robot programs took the gas out of sm in a jiffy. Most of the advance since early January was riding on air: heightened expectations wrt earnings season, tax reform, etc. We could get a transient bounce to lull folks into complacence before another smack down. Furthermore, we could have another speed bump positioned at next FOMC meeting in March. If tqqq sinks to the 150 area in a second leg, we could see a double top in the 180-190 area. If the pull back stops at the current level, Gary’s scenario could play out. It is best to be prepared for both outcomes. aapl and googl are the spoilers for tqqq. It is hard to visualise tqqq powering up without a helping hand from these 2 heavy weights.
Wrt to legitimate critical comments by cdn trader, it is important to remember that what appears here are just individual opinions and nothing more. It is the responsibility of the individual to do his own own due diligence before acting upon the ideas espoused here.
150 would still just be a completely normal pullback in an ongoing bull market. In fact it would be rather mild for an ICL.
The thing almost everyone is missing because they are caught up in the short term immediate action is that this correction will set the stage for the next intermediate cycle to become much more aggressive as it draws in the public and the buying panic begins in earnest.
I tried to warn people that a vertical market would begin as we came out of the August ICL. Almost no one listened to me though because like today, they were caught up in the bearish bias that gets generated during ICL’s.
They couldn’t envision the market transitioning into a very powerful vertical rally because at the time price was dropping. So consequently most people missed it unless they were able to do the opposite of what their emotions were telling them to do, or they listened to me, instead of ignoring me or disagreeing with me which is what most people do during these cycle pullbacks.
Many people will repeat the same mistake again this time as well and most will miss a big chunk of the parabolic phase that is coming.
This is just how markets work. They function on a bell curve. A very few are wrong all of the time. Most are right some of the time, but then give back their gains because they can’t reverse their bias when they need to. And then there are the very few traders that are able to make a lot of money because they are programmed to do the opposite of what their emotions tell them to do, or they’ve learned how to control their emotions at turning points when the herd is all running in the same direction.
Just like I explained sentiment is turning bearish way too quickly for this to be a final top. At tops traders remain stubbornly bullish, just like bitcoin investors over the last month. Yes sentiment got bullish at the end of January, but not the stubborn kind of bullishness that signals final tops.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-timers-just-gave-stock-investors-a-reason-to-celebrate-2018-02-02
Nobody is saying the final top is in. May be not. It is not clear to me how sentiment readings can energise languishing aapl and googl stocks. Until they find their legs, it would be tough for qqq/qld/tqqq to put up the kind of stellar performance compatible with the parabolic phase that you envision for nas.
For the life of me I have no idea what you see in the chart of AAPL that looks bearish. It’s broken out of a large 2 year basing pattern and based on the size of that base should still have a long long ways to go yet. Sure there will be pullbacks along the way.
GOOG looks even more bullish.
I think both Gary and cdntrader are right,they diverge only on WHEN the bubble will pop ( it could pop in any moment from now to the end of the spring.)
According to Gary to buy the parabolic end of the bubble will make earn lots of money,according to cdntrader it is an extreme risk since it could pop in any moment.
Probably the sage thing would be to deploy not an huge sum of money into the SM and hold until also the last of the taxi driver will tell you which stocks you should buy. ( the problem is if you don’t use taxis in order to move….)
Maybe now the most intelligent strategy would be to concentrate on what the next bubble will be (admitting there will be another bubble)
Well if you’ve been around this board you know that nobody ever changes there mind. Argue back and forth nothing. The hardest thing to change is your mind. I’m in the no final top it’s a 10 – 15 % correction crowd and that’s the way it’s going to play out,…. damit. Then there’s always the 666 close thing going. EVIL. HA! good luck.
The problem is that its always obvious in hindsight when a top forms..it rarely is beforehand. The old story about selling when your taxi driver talks about markets..not sure how relevant that is..I dont recall in 2007 or 2008 too many people talking to me about the stock market..and it crashed.
I know a few people talking about bitcoin to me..mainly the under 30 crowd and it crashed..so the thing is its a lot harder determining general sentiment than it appears.
There are tons of services out there guaging sentiment and whats extreme to one person isnt to another.
I know Jason from sentimentrader has been totally floored lately on the behaviour of the market..he has never seen so many things defy logic or sentiment and yet the market kept going up.
So I am not saying int he end that Gary will br wrong but what bothers me is how confident he is in calling another 50 percent move up in the stock market..thats a huge move after we already had a massive move. I think its high time that people are cautious and as ocram says deploy some money but do not bet the farm so to speak. I am looking at playing a bounce but I know a bounce could quickly collapse as well..the volatility has just ramped up..will it end in a week or two or will this be a multi month consolidation or is the bull maket over.
If I was going to guess I would look for more of a 2008 or 1929 type of timing..a bit more downside then consolidation and then another move up possibly getting close to recent highs over just pushing over by the fall then the real crash.
I would say it’s not that hard to spot the signs of a major top. I’ve gone over them multiple times. At the moment we just don’t have any of them.
So I think it’s still too early to bail on the bubble before the best part has even begun.
cdntrader,I made the taxi driver example but I know very well that is a joke 🙂
If it would be so easy we would be all millionares .
A bloke I just started working with, when I mentioned stocks and trading, admitted to knowing nothing about shares or trading is forking out 10k for two high end computers just to mine bit coin. This was in early January, this is a pest control guy, AKA shoe shine guy.
Classic!
This week’s summary:
Dow’s biggest single-day drop since Brexit (June 2016) Dow’s biggest point drop since Lehman (Oct 2008)
Dow’s worst week since Jan 2016
VIX’s biggest spike since Aug 2015
China’s Shanghai Comp worst week since Dec 2016
China’s Shenzhen Comp worst week since Jan 2016 Germany’s
DAX worst week since Feb 2016
30Y UST Bond’s worst weekly drop since the election (Nov 2016)
UST Yield Curve biggest steepening week since election (Nov 2016)
High Yield Bond’s worst week since March 2017
Dollar Index first weekly gain in two months
Dollar Index biggest daily gain since Jan 2017
Gold’s worst week in two months
Silver’s worst week since July 2017
Bitcoin’s worst week since Jan 2015
Gary, so PM’s should be in decline mostly in that buble moves in stocks? I think we are not going to see gold 1400 till summer…
Gold and stocks have been going up together since the bottom in 2016. The market is going up more because it’s late in a bull market and probably in a bubble, but smart money is already diverting some capital into the metals market in anticipation of what will come once the stock bubble pops.
My hope is gold dropping to 1280-1300 by March then consolidation..and then a move up after breaking1400
Next SM swing low will probably end the IC decline. We’ll probably get a little lower low to ease the swing-low parameters and then it’s blast-off again.
Gary, look how cannabis declined, would you consider to move some % money there? I’m sure you’re going to be glad you did in a couple of month, just look at VFF.TO potential, I expect it double in February licence granted. http://villagefarms.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Village-Farms-Investor-Presentation-FINAL-Jan-9-for-website.pdf
I don’t know anything about the sector. I’m sure I will make plenty of money in tech and the Dow.
(( : stubborn Gary, can you spend 10min for the link I provided, please…
I just don’t need to branch off into a sector that I know nothing about. I’m confident I will make more than enough money to be happy by just focusing on tqqq and UDow
Hey Gary I respect you very much could you please do a small check on Canadian Cannabis stocks ? I am invested and wondering if the bubble popped at some point the big 3 were stretch 300% over the 200 ma …aph.to , Weed.to or check out the etf hmmj or MJX .
I for one think it is premature for the bubble to pop but the chart looks exactly like this chart someone posted earlier on bubbles were either in the denial phase or entering the mania phase …
I personally think that cannabis bubble have popped. The price of most cannabis stocks are at least 10x higher than mid 2016. We might see some spike up near the date of legalisation (may/june) but i think cannabis stock will be really bad for the next months. In my opinion, they will all lose at least 50% of their price in the next weeks.
Pot stocks are a very emotional sector, great for short term trading only.
A very good video from Chris on what to look for during a topping process.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm4yXtg7CQ
Good video by Gary….SPX 2700 or slightly below makes perfect sense in at leats 2 ways of analyses.
The only bad actor is OIL now which is clinging on to 60-63 like Crazy Glue and won’t break down. Very strange. Saudi manipulation may be involved…
A very interesting article showing the extremes we are at. Something that is quite ominous is the decoupling of the Treasury Yiekld from the S and P. The worst of all scenarios is a bond market and stock market collapse at the same time..this wipes out both bond and stock investors.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-03/its-turning-point-bond-stock-slump-sparks-worst-week-risk-parity-2013-tantrum
Great video, cheers Gary. Totally agree with your 2700 area pullback over the next week or so. I mainly hold mining shares but ocassionally try a derivative trade. Ive always gone with Australias biggest bank (CBA) as it usually moves with the market lockstep. I want to try something else this time. What sector do you think i should be looking at for a short term trade out of the dip (if it does end up to be a dip)? Ofcouse i woukd love other people opinions too. Thanks in advance
Gary, what is your view on gold? I scroll down your blog, no video for gold. Please give us your view on this
In that video, did the market ever go parabolic before it topped? Gary is always saying about price being stretched well above the moving averages when topping as in Bitcoin recently and yet that did not appear to be happening in that video? Why did the market top and roll over?
That was not the end of the bull market in 57. It was the top of a 4 year cycle. Once the 4 YCL was finished the market continued higher into 66.
It’s too early for the market to begin the move down into the next multiyear cycle low. We’re barely 2 years in.
Thanks Gary. It was an interesting video. 40 minutes, but I stayed with it.
According to Zeberd Jensen miners will be vaporized soon,probably together with the SM.
He thinks PM will make new lows well below the lows of december 2015.
Unfortunately nobody can say this will not happen 100%,it would be a carnage for many people including me.
I’m really tired of all this.
https://twitter.com/HenrikZeberg?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fgoldtadise.com%2F
Why do you even bother reading this kind of nonsense? This guy is just another nut in denial about the dollar bear market.
It’s because I have made many mistakes Gary and my hope is to be able to remedy them,and when I read these forecasts I feel depressed,even if I have never hear about that analyst before,but you know better than any others what human nature can do to sentiment.
Let’s hope you will be right about everything,especially because you deserve it.
Thank you.
Lol i know this guy. As soon as anyone points out his mistakes he throws a hissy fit and blocks them. Follow him at your own peril!
At bull market tops there are usually divergences. The advance decline line can diverge for months. The banks start to wilt ahead of the rest of the market. I’ve shown what complacency looks like with extreme ROBO levels for many months.
Another divergence that signaled at the last two market tops is the monthly money flows. We don’t have a divergence yet.
Actually even better – there was a MF divergence into the 7 year cycle low 2015/16. So signalling 3/3 of the last declines. And nothing now.
The average stock is participating in this rally as well. After many years of going nowhere, now all the stocks are breaking out of a huge sideways consolidation.
Hard to argue with that last chart.
Historical day. Nice plunge, selloff. It can be called a mini flash crash.
I closed my short positions.