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“Final” bubble?? I thought we were in just the Initial bubble…. Just kidding ….I just wanted to be first to comment before anyone does it. lol
So, Gary, in your opinion nothing has changed? This dramatic downturn has no effect on the way you think the SM will progress that is, vertically up or at worst a long term bull?
Listen from the 10:00 mark.
Here is a look at the eight year bull market from 1921-1929. Take note of the short time period for the final parabolic move at the tail end. I wonder how many were fooled by the big rally that followed that first big drop and how many analysts were calling for a resumption of the great bull market?
Of course, things were different then. Today we have the Fed and other central banks that will protect us from such nonsense. But, wait, didn’t the central banks control the money supply back then too?
I do not see the 100% up move from 2016-2018 that we see on 1927-1929. At the most we were 17% above 200 ma.
Percent above the 200 ma is not nearly as important as the standard deviations above the 200ma and before this crash started the S&P was over 3 standard deviations above the 200 day. That is rare and that is nose bleed territory and is simply unsustainable. Hence we are in crash mode.
NEW PONIES NO BUBBLE
Buying soon, lots of cash, but changing ponies from nq stocks to all things commodity. Inflation. FWIW Would be trully shocked after all this to see any kind of near term sustained parabolic Bubble develop in the markets. Guessing risk aversion makes a big comeback, think Kellogs and PG not NVDA. Going to get that big move, 50 – 70 % off the 200 or it’s undercut, but then south we go. Trading range 2475 – 2700 S&P for a long time. Going to drive people crazy. INstead of trying to be constantly playing bounces in a trading range I’m picking new ponies for the long ride into the sunset. Buena suerte!
Can’t be a V shape recovery or vertically up. Either a patience testing sideways, or continuity of what has happened over the last few days.
Commodities do look good but a bit early for oil. Isn’t it? Inflation in price could raise its ugly head. Under present conditions that will be devastating.
Hopefully, those in power will stop the SM slide (PPT!) and slowdown the price inflation without raising the interest rates too much. $ is still the reserve currency. THEY can do it.
VIN, Re: oil, February always the worst month for oil. So not a shocker that it’s having it’s big correction now after it’s strong 2017 rally. March – Sept oil is almost always in an uptrend. In many years to run for the secular bull camp. Buying commodities DBC, DBA, etc now akin to buying spx 5 years ago. Market leadership begining to change that’s all.
Nada,
A seasoned professional like yourself quoting Peter Schiff? Come on, WTF!
Peter Schiff is no dummy; he’s just not a savvy trader like the rest of us.
Peter Schiff’s got issues.
OMG, it was an obvious joke? Retweet from zero hedge.
When you look at this weekly chart of our current 9 year bull market, it takes a lot of faith to believe that there is plenty more upside coming on the right side of the chart. Somehow I find it hard to believe that the smart money is dumb enough to be still buying but I guess anything is possible. Maybe the corporations will be willing to pay higher prices for their shares but I won’t be in there with a bid.
The problem with your outlook Don is that it’s too bearish. Like many on this blog you’re a big ol’ BEAR deep down in your heart.. and every bear wants to feel vindicated (my dad was the same btw and I know exactly how you think), so I’m gonna give you the same advice I gave Bluebellkid the other day.
You’re trying to find common sense with the LEFT SIDE of the brain when in actuality the Market doesn’t give a flying hoot about what you think SHOULD happen and will continue to defy logic because it is mostly driven by human emotions and [of course] years and years of QE that have now snowballed into what might turn into the biggest bull market of our time, or the biggest bubble of our time. Yes, bigger than bitcoin. So do me a favour.. stop trying to find common sense and accept that this market will continue to defy the odds and will continue to, wait for it..
“.. remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
Yup, I said it. Another great lesson from one of the greats!
Also worth a mention: I’ve sat in some of those Corporate Board Baloney Meetings when I was a young lad and the message was always the same — make money EVERY QUARTER so that I can put food on the table, go on expensive vacations with my loved ones and FEEL SAFE. That is what ultimately drives mother market from the very top of the food chain (VP, CEOs, Politicians, Billionaires) to the very bottom (Joe Blow from Pizza Hut).. that raw human emotion that we all have in common, (regardless of skin colour, cultural influence, political inclination and religious belief) just wants to feel safe and will continue to push the Market to its breaking point.
Hint: We’re not there yet brother 🙂
Think I’m full of beans? No problem, let’s talk in 10 years and re-assess.
Christian: I have nothing but the greatest respect for your insight and wisdom.
Yes. it is true that am a bear and have been for the past few years. Fortunately, I have made enough on the long side over that past several years to be able to remain solvent despite blowing my much of the profits on shorting ventures. Being short has never been so unrewarding in my nearly 40 years of trading. However, at some point, the market will make that ultimate top and the bear will be upon us. I have no idea when that will be but I have been at this game long enough to know that neither you or Gary or anyone else on this blog can say for certain that a bear market is not already underway.
The fuel that has driven this market is running out as the CBs get serious about withdrawing nearly free money. The music is about to stop, in my opinion.
Gary, here is the feds reduction plan;
The Fed’s announced plan is to shrink the balance sheet by $10 billion a month in October, November, and December, then accelerate the pace every three months. By October 2018, the Fed would reduce its holdings by up to $50 billion a month (= $600 billion a year) and continue at that rate until it deems the level of its holdings “normal” – the new normal, whatever that may turn out to be.
Get that…….50b a month by Oct. With the treasury yields breaking out also the stock market doesn’t have headwinds……..its a full out cat 5 hurricane wind. If the call that your making actually pans out I will be the first to admit that your market prognosticating is unparalleled. Right now I would give your forecast about a 10% probability and that is being kind.
Forget the TA. What is stated above is not fundamental analysis. That is assured liquidity that is Guaranteed to be leaving the market. There is no speculation there. By October 1.65 billion dollars a day will be removed from the market.
Plus Mario Draghi is putting the brakes on ECB QE.
Gary,
The only way I could see your forecast come to fruition is if the U.S. dollar goes into hyperinflation and that would involve losing the privilege of beings the worlds reserve currency. Then, no doubt, the Dow could go to 100,000. I just don’t see that happening in the next 6 months though.
we really can not have hyper inflation as the reserve currency. That would create financial Armageddon. it would blow up the currencies of the world. Gold of course, would not be for sale or purchased ( with currencies, crypto’s wold be zero. ) until a reset. So….not much chance of that happening.
desert, when you say that money will be leaving the market can you explain how that works? It is my understanding that the Fed’s balance sheet is weighted with MBS and Treasury Bonds. Who will be buying that, stock investors? I believe we will find out that the buyers were located in the Caribbean or some other remote place…LOL
We have never had leverage in the market like we do today. Leverage stacked upon leverage stacked upon leverage. A 10% drop in the S&P could wipe out some of these players. It is happening now and as it unfolds it will trigger margin calls, defaults, derivative contract failures etc. It will be a cascading and self feeding process that could overwhelm the financial system as well as the Fed, ECB and other central banks.
G,
Wow, things are baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad! Please stop reading zero hedge and realize sometimes things gotta go down to continue up. Relax a little bit cuz the stuff your preaching is suicide material. Have a beer, get a girlfriend, get a massage, meditate or something. Turn of Rachel Maddow, you are going nuts.
Sounds like you are very very nervous about the current market and you should be. Those 3x leveraged long ETF’s you bragged about buying in December must be in the red by now. We all told you not to tap your HELOC to buy those ETF’s, but you laughed at us.
I don’t even know what the heck a HELOC is. Sorry, don’t have one, do you?
As long as the US debt is so large, interest rates will remain under control.
1% of 20T is about 1/3 the military budget.
The long term performance of the SM in a log plot is a straight line.
And it will continue so for at least a few decades more till we are burned by global warming.
With this basis Gay’s take on the SM is correct. We will get to Nasdaq 10,000.
But the current facts tell that it is not this Summer.
What is admirable is Gary’s consistency on his theme whether right or wrong.
And as usual, the bottom line is what counts.
I hear that his portfolios are doing extremely well.
Looking at the slopes of the ’29 crash one can notice three main slopes.
The first drop was to the base of the steepest slope.
Based on this we can expect the SM to lose about 7%-10% more to about 2400.
At any event, this weekend we will have a good glass of red wine to the health of everyone here at the SMT site. Good nite.
Do not under estimate the resolve, resources and ability of central banks.
It’s kind of like betting against the house.
I suspect they will get their way once again.
That is of course, until they don’t.
Dude some of this market rout is for political reasons against POTUS.
Globalists and mega bankers did not like Yellen firing as she was owned by them.
Notice no PPT present since last Tuesday when it started when they were present at the slightest decline for the past 8 years.
Trump is purported to be considering and looking at reviving a version of Glass-Steagall.
The “Russia Russia Russia” FBI/Deep state/MSM broohaha is already a failed dudd, they know that already.
They could push it lower just to make a point and shot across POTUS’ bow.
6 months ago, Yellen proclaimed “another financial crisis not likely in our lifetime.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/27/yellen-banks-very-much-stronger-another-financial-crisis-not-likely-in-our-lifetime.html
Last month bullish sentiment peaked in the 99th percentile.
https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/analysis/2018/02/01/raging-bulls-could-send-stocks-reeling
If you are looking for peak hubris, I would say we were pretty much there. It is stupid for Gary or anyone else to hold the view that under no possible scenario have we already just seen the top and are at the beginning of a bear market.
The time to buy is when you’re scared. So yes this is a buying opportunity. But how many retail investors do you think are buying?
The answer of course is none. Only smart money buys at bottoms. Dumb money sells at bottoms.
As you can see dumb money is dong what they always do during declines.
Dow channel breakout
NDX channel breakout
Gary, channel breakout is clear. Do you think that therefore it is a high probability to see NQ and Dow come back to the channel during this correction, that is 6000 and 22500 respectively ??
A retest of the breakout is a possibility. I’m not saying it has to happen but we haven’t even negated the breakout at this point yet everyone is convinced we’ve started a bear market and we just haven’t. This is just a very sharp YCL after over a year of very calm conditions.
Thanks Gary Appreciate your thoughts as ever.
I was scratching my head in the video for a moment and the talk of undercut low. Then realised you are only talking about the cash market.
Chart of futures I use has hit 200 day and looking technically strong to move up.
HOWEVER
I have moved up in my mind the risk posablely that the music just went off. Rates, debits, end of QE’s , obvious market top markers etc…
Everybody likes to talk about “topping is a process” and normal rolling over conditions BUT we’re not in a normal situation for the last 10 years and soon as that stimulus is gone we go back down to where we came from would make sense?
Fed was in this trap in 1929 & their rate rising always kicks off the next crisis eventually.
Morning isavage. What app is pictured in your screenshot?
Good Morning & Afternoon from the UK Nada
The App is Net Dania – use it all day everyday almost 😉
We haven´t heard from the Bitclowns much lately, now that they are realizing they are sunk, as volatility is leaking out making it that much harder to realize their 25K by June dreams. Magic beans are worth more, at least you can get a plant out of them.
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/02/07/crypto-crackdown-bitcoin-is-a-combination-of-bubble-ponzi-scheme-environmental-disaster/
Like I said, 10 years from now we will wonder how we could have been so stupid.
We haven’t gotten any smarter since the 16th century. In fact one could make a case we’ve gotten dumber.
Gary ,
Tom Lee softspoken asian guy former chief investment strategist JPMorgan is still all in on cryptos.
He is not that supid ? How did hold a leading position at the JPMorgan then ?
Very smart people are still on it.
How ?
Lol.
Come June this umpteenth “left behind doom is coming” is going to age the same way a glass of milk would that you left out on the table & went for a swig in June.
The destinantion & course is clear if you’re……
On the Mayflower.
It certainly took a long time but bonds are finally heading lower like I was expecting. That was a year long bear flag. The 30 year bond bull is over.
That doesn’t necessarily imply bad things are going to happen. If bonds were to crash then yes we would be in trouble. But I doubt the bond market is going to crash. I expect just a long grind lower that could last 10-20 years.
Nobody here seems to have panicked out of stocks yet, just nervous, but haven´t sold. There will likely be a further test of their fortitude, and at least a few will have to be shaken off the bull I would think.
I prefer to use actual sentiment data rather than try to extrapolate it from what I read on the blog. Based on the current sentiment levels we should be getting close to a final bottom. I’m also factoring in the daily cycle is now on day 56. That’s pretty stretched, but the previous cycle before it stretched to 61 days.
The larger intermediate cycle has set up to have two stretched daily cycles embedded within it, and the second cycle is due to bottom any day.
I hear you and agree, was just making a local observation. If I had to bet, I would wager you are going to be correct on this buy also, even if it hurts some at first. It sure dosen´t pay to be a seller down here, so odds are we will see the same thing we´ve seen the last 8 years, a rip your face off rally. Trading is odds, after all.
At the recent top the SPX was only 11% above the 200 DMA. That hardly seems like a 3 standard deviation move.
At the top of the bubble in 2000 the Nasdaq was almost 60% above the 200 DMA.
At the top of the oil bubble in 08 price was 40% above the 200 DMA.
At the top of the bitcoin bubble price was 240% above the 200 DMA.
I think everyone is expecting a long slow recovery once the bottom is complete.
I think we are going to slingshot out of the bottom and leave almost everyone sitting at the station.
We have created the fear necessary to keep everyone on the sidelines for a big part of the next rally. That’s the kind of fuel we need to drive a parabolic top.
Like I said in the video I think we are in a similar position as bitcoin in September.
If almost everyone is sitting at the station, that means few are buying, then what would drive the price into a parabolic top? I thought retail buyers would be the ones that were going to drive this thing into a parabolic top.
Gary,
For your information and for this board, Chris Ciovacco in his latest message as of the market close on Friday 02/09/2018 says that a very important level on the S&P is 2558. If S&P closes below that level on Friday 02/16/2018, then he will make significant adjustments to protect capital in the accounts that he manages. However, he feels that this down move is a correction in a bull market. He also says it may take two months or more to find a bottom.
Unlikely as we are already going to be 25 weeks into this intermediate cycle. I’m going to say if we didn’t get our bottom on Friday will get it this week
For what its worth I just don’t think TA is the answer here. When the one thing that is responsible for painting the charts that you just posted is taken away………..what is going to replace it? This is a two fold effect. You have to consider government support dollars have been taken away. Then you have to consider the amount that is being extracted from the markets every month. Bottom line is that we are in an environment that was completely controlled by central bank intervention that is now doing the opposite of what they did to paint those charts.
Foe those that actually pay attention to bond yields this video is must see viewing.
THIS is How the U.S. Accumulated $21 Trillion in Debt Without COLLAPSING!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_w3SkWcOQg&t=51s
Here are some thoughts from IBD: The article was long so this is just parts of it and it may read a little choppy.
What’s going in the stock market? After more than a year of gradual to solid gains, investors suddenly discovered that stocks can go down, sharply. But despite the breathless coverage of “record losses” for the Dow, the stock market has not had some historic meltdown. After an unusually calm 2017, the major averages are in the midst of their biggest pullback in years — and pullbacks and corrections are normal parts of healthy markets. The market has now moved into a correction. Up until Jan. 30, the S&P 500 index hadn’t fallen 1% or more since last August. The market hadn’t had a cumulative pullback of even 4% since the presidential election. Eventually that had to change. That switch in market direction was a clear warning sign for investors. Market direction is critical and lets you know whether you should be looking to buy stocks, take profits or move to cash. In a confirmed uptrend, most stocks are likely to rise and leading stocks are more likely to deliver huge gains. In a correction or bear market, even top-rated stocks find it hard to make headway. For a return to a confirmed market uptrend, look for the major averages to rebound over several days, with at least some strong gains in heavy volume. As Tuesday’s rebound showed, one good day isn’t enough. Meanwhile, few signs indicate a bear market is looming. Bear markets are typically associated with a recession. That seems unlikely in the near term, with economic growth strong across the globe for the first time in several years. Don’t fight the stock market. Most stocks move with the market, so a correction is a time to sell stocks and move to the sidelines.
For those determined to stay invested, you should probably take at least partial profits. Follow sell rules. If a stock falls 7% to 8% below your buy point, just sell. Don’t let stocks that had run up 10% or more turn into losers. Remember, if you get out and a stock bounces back, you’ll get another chance to buy — or you’ll have capital for another quality stock. When the stock market clearly resumes an uptrend — whether it’s next week or months from now — you want to be ready. The market can turn very quickly. When a new rally takes hold, the first leading stocks that break out often turn out to be big uptrend winners. When everyone is bullish, nobody wants to sell but there are no longer many people left to buy. That’s why excessive bullishness can mark at least short-term tops. Markets rise on a wall of worry. They need investors coming off the sidelines and buying stocks. So a dose of fear in investors is healthy.
Pullbacks and corrections clear the decks and set the stage for a new strong uptrend. Leading stocks can set up in bases, and you can buy these first movers when the major averages confirm the new stock market rally.
Fiber optic stocks have held up well during this sell off. Take a look at LITE – INFN – VIAV – ACIA – OCLR
Gold/miners on day 1 of their new daily cycles.
USD to produce a bull trap > 1.2537 in a shortened daily cycle of USX –> USDJPY will head < 107.3 (ICL) set in September.
The dollar might have one more push to tag the September low.
Your swing looks like it may be negated. I think we need to wait for clear direction from the dollar, but gold definitely in timing band for DCL.
I see the Canadians have no jobs from this morning’s report and part time jobs at their highs since 2009. Recession anyone?
Equivalent of the state of New York in a little pullback. EH
Trudeau the Great!
dirty refugees get free housing and cash flow though
Tell me more about it. This young man was elected when Canada was doing was reasonably well and look what has happened to the country is such a short period? Probably more to come. How many more years does he have?
I know some posters on here are hoping for mayhem. Being single and only having to worry about yourself is one thing, however the story changes when you are raising a family or have children in college (entering the workforce), or are running a business. You worry about their future.
Nada, do you wish for carnage?
My position is short volatility with a small bet. Rest of broker account is in cash and also cash in 401k/IRA’s. I have been waitining for 3 months in retirement accounts for a marktet correction. I am just waiting for the dust to settle.
I am a bear at heart in all assets, just because I like the speed in which things go down, but no.. I wish no one any financial harm and understand well that people have a lot riding on the markets well being.
Sorry if my bear personality got a little excited over the past few days and I understand well what losses feel like as I have been there and no doubts will be there again.
I can appreciate that patience Nada, and with that you deserve this correction and that great buying opportunity after “the dust settles.” Months and years to build up, and days to weeks to tear down. Now I can understand your viewpoint, the action you like, but not the heartache. Thank you for explaining.
I do believe some are just jealous or vindictive. Shows character.
Nada,
Hey, I am also curious, when the market is up day after day for those 3 months and you are waiting, being patient, what techniques do you use to hold and avoid FOMO? Input from others welcome also.
My personal broker account kept my FOMO in control. I was able to let retirement accounts and IRA’s sit in cash because I had something to do. No doubt, it was hard to keep out of the SM during that time and yes I had regrets day after day, but again the personal broker account which is much smaller than retirement accounts help alleviate that pain. I exited in those accounts 3-4 months ago, because for 10 years I had not been out of the market in retirement accounts and the all time highs (at the time) were enough for me to exit.
I read a recent study that stated, individuals feel more pain on the sidelines than they do from losing money in the markets. I believe that 100%.
Folks this just isn’t the big one that the perma bears are looking for. Money isn’t flowing into safe havens like gold and bonds like it did during the three other major corrections.
Thanks Gary. Excellent chart and some of the best evidence I’ve seen that this isn’t the “big one”…..yet.
To say there is no fear is ridiculous. http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Good morning,
Let us make money today.
By the way, despite this SM minor adjustment we are still very bullish above the upper trend line.
Real fear would start when, if at all, the lower trend line is penetrated.
Agree and, in most cases, the upper channel line hasn’t even been reached: my expectation for today’s session, is an immediate down start going mid-way between Tuesday’s low and the upper channel line below. For NQ that would be something around 6170, then upside reversal for good. Just my 2 cents.
Somebody has been busy buying S&P futures over the last few hours. The PPT? Looks like are going to get an opening gap up just like the way things used to be. I predict we will have a moderately strong up day with a sell off near the end but probably closing up to keep everyone calm over the weekend.
Lets ‘see; I expect the opposite: strong down start and undercut below Tuesday’s low to make the last bulls capitulate, then up we go…but you might be right, because usually Friday is not the right day of the week for such scenario
JJ, your daily calls are usually pretty good. You should become a day trader.
Gioid you are good at day trading and you usually indulge in miners.
Have you ever tried INDL and/or LABU? They are very volatile and perfect for day trading.
I did try both of them. Unfortunately, I don’t have the mental setup to day trade – a bit too slow to act. Still, I did make a few excellent trades.
Semis and techs leading the market, as usual. Gold stocks going down, as usual.
SOS?
I watch the ETFs of 42 countries. Yesterday they were ALL down, a rare occurrence. This morning, with few exceptions, nearly all are up. No way the US based PPT could have that much firepower so it must be that the banks all work in unison. That’s my theory anyway.
Coordination is possibly done via/ with the BIS. The CB heads meet monthly in Basel and I’m sure the audio/ video conference lines are heated up at times like these. There’s definitely coordination.
Of course it’s still early, but we aren’t getting follow through on the breakdown undercut.
There’s a good chance the bottom occurred yesterday.
Could be. Bottoms can be recognised only in hind sight. Uvxy needs to break down, looks like a slow process. Close to a bottoming zone. But, exact bottom? Who knows?
Amazing.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p78840777576&a=576685261&listNum=1
This is kind of funny: https://dollarcollapse.com/stock-prices/remember-when-stocks-went-up/
…and there is truth in it too
Somebody is dumping the absolute piss out of GDX in a very controlled manner since the 25th of January.
LOL, very true. For the life of me, I do not understand why Mustang Sally has not showed up. I guess this means we have a lot further to drop in gold, because when she does return, get ready to buy.
Dec lows get taken out today in GDX?
If not today, then absolutely next week. The weekly candle looks horrific in relation to the lower bollinger band. Also, there is a gigantic year long H&S that projects to like $17 (one of Gary’s original targets). This action to me strongly suggest the next DC is going to roll over super quick. When that neckline breaks, then the real panic will set in.
Yikes!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p12047911659&a=576692295&listNum=1
Gold has held up well. Hasn’t even touched its 10 WMA yet (ostensibly set for a higher high on the next DC).
It’s only the miners and silver (so far at least) that look like they are cooked. In a vacuum, gold looks great.
thx Gary – best analysis out there right now!
I do believe the DOW will be the big safe haven/piggy bank until we finally crack confidence. buying Sep DIA calls.
With debt strangling consumers in a rising Irate environment while the gov debt is in a death spiral as pensions wither, failing to make new highs in any 6 month period would be a disaster for the stock market IMO. Desperate times…
Consumers deleveraged a long time ago during the housing bust.
The debt now is on government balance sheets. But governments have printing presses.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html
It’s a real drag – not as dangerous perhaps given the disastrous fall about to hit RE back then, but healthy it is not.
The problem is Real wages have not grown so debt at new highs even at lower rates is a red flag,
You are wrong. Credit card, student loan and auto loan debt are at all time highs!
Student loan debt – This one is gong to be a big dot deal. For some reason, millennial’s think they should have free eduction and are racking up student loans in the hopes they are going to be “forgiven”.
The thought of that makes me sick. So, let me get this straight. It should be the tax payers responsibility to pay for the education of someone else who could potentially undercut their own jobs in the future? WTF. Paying for education is the job of the individual receiving the education, no one else. You have 70k debt after you get out of college? So F’ing what . Pay for it. If you want to attack the problem, go after the universities and book companies that are charging an arm and leg for their services.
And in regard to the car loan bubble, yep another big one. They will give loans (now up to 10 years) to idiots who can not afford a bicycle much less a 30,000 dollar car. I see kids living with their parents, making 20k a year and driving a 30-40k car. Yeah, thats going to end well.
yah – subprime is the canary because by the time it rears it’s ugly head you have run out of good consumers…
Unless SLV gets some sort of miracle bounce here, the weekly candle looks absolutely horrific and set for some major follow through in the weeks ahead. It is strongly suggesting that any daily cycle bounce at least in silver is going to be very short lived and roll over very quickly. The weekly stochastics and RSI have plenty of room to accommodate a major bear trend or spike lower if that is what silver wants to do.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p61289790378&a=576690370&listNum=1
Walking talking Jesus, what a blood bath in miners. Dec low slated to be rubbed out today? Should have never exited JDST. Mr. SM spooked me out of position.
BTW, great day for the “Gold/miners on day 1 of their new daily cycles.” @Alex.
We are in a downtrend for now so the characteristics of that are strength in the morning and giving a lot back by the close if not all of it. There is no way the markets can now turn this into a positive week. All indices will close in the lower half of the weekly trading range on way above average volume which is not what we want but also to be expected. Nada, you can use this for day trades (short) take positions on strength in the am and bail at the end of day.
Good stuff. I will be interested when you re-enter SM. I am tempted to buy a little today, but don’t have the balls.
I’m glad I hung on to my LABD. The biotechs are getting the hammer. Sold all my TMV this morning . I think the bond market is going to bounce for while . Too much bearish talk.
Don, thanks for the vote of confidence but I tried my hand at day trading and lost. Concerning LABD, If I recall correctly, you bought your LABD a while back. Are you making any money on it? I wish I had bought back in yesterday as I was intending to do. Sucks.
SLV is hitting this lower trend line soon. Sure, a bounce (DCL whatever) is due, but then down she goes.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p15187085852&a=576694824&listNum=1
Nasdaq getting ready to lose yesterday’s low, looks like that “undercut” is going to get “undercut”. Next stop 200-day at 6550.
That “10,000” target is going further away every day.
Looks like we’re at least going to make it to the 200 DMA.
Yep the 200-day and 50-week targets seem to be a magnet.
100-point swings are eventually going to subside, at least that much I can say.
Come on Man! 10k is a piece of cake? By the end of March? But then one has to give credit to Gary for being careful later on as he suggested to buy options with an extended expiry date to give some room.
And it looks like he doesn’t own 3X. SO? Where is the problem?
8 more weeks and we will all be rich.
Here we go again! SOS?
This thing is finished yet. How low? Any guesses?
Or, is 10k is still a piece of cake? by the end of March?
Gold’s bull trend vs silver since 2011 looks A-OK to me. The first half of 2016, so far, was literally nothing more than a blip in this trend.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3ASLV&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p05495293497&a=576697140&listNum=1
Say what you want about Peter Schiff (I have said plenty against him in the past) this talk makes a lot of sense. Re-posting this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJ87Yj2s5B4
Nice work Gary and everyone.
Friday in a gold bear trend is always bad, it is actually doing OK considering.
Spanky…the big boys are painting the tape in the miners and silver so you will sell. When you sell they will release to the upside.
I’m not selling, but I recognize they are extremely oversold and could generate a big bounce for a day or two any time. So much damage has been done though, that I see the odds of the next DC being extremely left translated at almost 99%. Everyone who has held on from the late 2016 low will finally be dumping into the next ICL, which should be an all out panic.
What’s going to happen in the miners is we get some sort of choppy sideways rally for 5-10 days (this will correspond to the DCL in gold), and then the bottom falls out for about a month going into the March 21 FOMC. $17 GDX is in the bag most likely. god only knows where silver will be.
nah…gold bottomed yesterday for the DC… I think miners will hit 25 before 17.
Trust me bro, I pray that you are right.
I think you are correct RR. Just bought some NGD 10 mins ago.
When oil turns up so will the SM.
Why such a big smash on the gold miners for such a small pull back in gold? Doesn’t seem logical or rational that there’s such a huge drop. Any thoughts?
Because it’s a shit sector.
lol. So true! PM bulls have patiently sat through a grind lower in the miners for 19months now, and they are literally on the cusp of completely breaking down!
I said it yesterday, but the Dow breaking below the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart strongly suggests that even if the ICL comes soon and we go on to make higher highs, that process is going to be choppy and won’t be a rocket shot to new highs in a matter of weeks.
That’s the best case scenario IMO. This is clearly a busted parabola. As we saw with silver, after the massive initial drop, we got a second fairly quick pop to try to regain the highs, but it failed and the rest is history. If we break back above the cloud before March, I will be very surprised and will just reinforce that the Fed really is in total control.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p37053193364&a=576699505&listNum=1
It was a parabola.
should read WASNT
I want to reiterate what I said a day or two ago: market recovery will be slow. I can’t see a “V” print out of this.
Not that anyone should care or listen..
Ichimoku cloud confirms that IMO. Of course, this is all about odds and nothing is certain, but I really would become a true believer in Fed magic if we just V bounce back over the top border of the cloud.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p37053193364&a=576699505&listNum=1
With Yellen gone now, will the new guy fill that void? You’d think so, being a Trump puppet, yet here we are.
Broke the Dec lows. Another great call, by Ted.. 5 days ago, he called the bottom in the miners.
Today would be a really nice day for Shortin’ Sally to return. Come on Sally, stop being such a tease!
The Dow and miners, unfortunately, are probably going to bottom together some time after the March FOMC meeting, IMO.
The last few times gdx flirted with these levels other than December were:
July and May when gold bottomed at $1207 and $1214.
before that we hit that level in March 2017 with gold bottoming at $1196
An easy $100 difference in spot gold this time. Surreal.
The undercut got undercut.
With the miners and silver crashing with the SM basically to the day, this is eerily similar to 2008 at least for now.
Sally is above water and in profits! Come on sweets, show yourself!
Spanky is Mustang Sally, Mustang Sally is Ped.
Perma bears are only right in a downtrend.
Same horse different color.
Spanky is not Ped. Spanky is a perma bull who is completely dejected from the performance of silver and miners. he DOESN’T want them to go down. Ped/Sally wanted gold below $1000.
Wily enough to fool a roadrunner.
well if you have proof …but I am sure you don’t but you are certainly free to believe anything you want….
Looks like money is moving into the only true safe haven: CRYPTO!
LOL!! Oh yes, nothing safer than that..
The Dow and the miners basically bottomed together in 2016 too.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p37053193364&a=576699505&listNum=1
GDX hit the 200 WMA at $21.18 so far today. It will break the neckline today or next week of a large H&S that projects to $17. Sure, a dead cat bounce is due anytime, by the dye is being cast for much lower lows in the weeks ahead.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p44962903123&a=576703819&listNum=1
From @RitholtzWealth
Nicely put Beachandbiscuits
Bankers are leaving
Wow, gold blowing the miners out of the water and doing serious damage on the weekly chart. Whatever happens after the mythical DC low, you can bet that this trend (miners losing ground to gold) is not just going to flip on a dime. There will most definitely be serious follow through for months if not longer.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AGDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93359167346&a=576706486&listNum=1
Gartman has stated we have entered a full fledged bear market and he added to his shorts. For whatever that is worth.
That is actually a good contrary indicator.
Dennis Fartman is still wrong of course, this aint a bear market……But it does not mean we are done going down yet in this correction either.
Spanky, mining stocks apparently don’t produce gold or silver they just produce loses.
When all time record high leverage unwinds it is best to stand out of the way. The snowball with turn into a steam-roller.
…Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand after a fake bounce +350 on the Dow, we turn negative now…………
You can hear a pin drop out there in MSM….The fear will not be palpable until ….
Ultimate Downside TARGETS: SPX <2,400-2500 & Dow 22,000-22,500.
SDOW has been serving hot dishes since Weds night.
Main course yet to come.
Totally agree. Seems like everyone one I know and listen to says – “hey, don’t worry the market will turn soon a make new all time highs.” Well, I’m not so sure about that.
This right here, this has some serious implications about stock market liquidity–we are talking 2008. Miners crashing right along with stocks vs gold.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p71973455705&a=576707286&listNum=1
Gary, there is one thing that suggests the market may be heading for more of a move lower than you are anticipating. The gold and silver miners are being sold off very aggressively compared to the prices of gold and silver, and several Canadian energy stocks that I follow (eg. WCP.TO) have broken down well below their prior one-year lows even with the price of oil at $60.00. This weakness in the “high beta” stocks suggests that a larger top may be occurring here. I don’t recall 2008 too well, but didn’t the same thing happen prior to the huge market declines in the fall of 2008?
Maybe this weakness in these stocks is just a normal part of the broader correction that we are having. I haven’t had enough experience with the markets to know for sure.
WTI $55 the first stop…
then ultimately $49 is where it really belongs.
That is how the 2007-08 debacle started, in the miners first, then everything got smashed.
Exactly.
Forget PMs , the main action is in stocks now people.
PMs are dead money for now until mid-year.
This time is different!!!!
That rubber band is REALLY getting stretched….actually I had to swap mine out with a bungee cord to prevent catastrophic breakage.
Wave 5 resumes…. Down -300 in the Dow now.
Today could be a doozy.
3-5 trading sessions to go until correction done?
You can hear a pin drop out there in MSM….The fear will not be palpable until ….
Ultimate Downside TARGETS: SPX <2,400-2500 & Dow 22,000.
S&P and the Nasdaq are back to October levels. The PPT better step in soon or the margin calls will crash the market on Monday.
Or Powell better announce QE4
Sorry PPT has been locked up and gauged since Tuesday 2-weeks ago on teh day of SOU speech by Trump….
All part of the plan.
Mega banks and remnants of Obama Fed making points to POTUS with this…
‘and it aint over yet either.
Nada,
Zero Hedge just posted another article from Schiff: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-09/peter-schiff-political-rhetoric-vs-economic-reality. I’ll be right back, wanna make sure the sky really isnt falling.
6500 for the Nasdaq should be a piece of cake, 5500 not out of the question. LOL
well we’ve had a solid undercut and now await the much touted bounce. Suppose to be spectacular by many pundits. However much in this market has been pro business republican babble gab and infamous tax cut. Which is suddenly but expectantly questioned due to deficit arising from ill advised corporate tax cuts. Even republicans are expressing public doubts. Trumps survival rests on the economy holding up at least and improving as per his belicose.
Unfortunately tax cuts now done and he serves little purpose except for his 30% following which will become ever more evident in coming months leading into mid terms. Market will reflect the likely takeover of House by democrats whose first order of business will be to accelerate investigations and expose trump and his family dealings
Market after some uplift in early spring will then collapse into mid term elections and beyond.
you are on drugs…but you are funny. dems have nothing, but lies and propaganda (not that Repubs are much better) but the Obama FBI/DOJ co conspirators will be in jail. You will then realize you have been lied to for 2 years….that is going to suck for you. careful with that TDS.
Is this another JNUG Debacle, Part Deux around here? (TQQQ)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ6Sqmgv5q0
Pretty quiet around here considering the action, usually there is more energy, and expletives being thrown around. Just wait until Gary is up on this trade, people follow him into a trade but then make their own exit, only to disappear soon after, like when they booked their losses on the energy trade which went on to make money.
to notice: cannabis stocks are holding really well in this selloff.
Down 5% today is a good thing these days?
huh?
Miners making a new 19 month lows vs gold today. gold is down. SM is down. Bond yields drop for a day today after an enormous run.
Gold should be rocketing higher. Maybe it’s discounting a SM recovery and the Fed not backing off of raising rates?
One thing is clear though, anyone who thinks miners will rise when stocks are crashing is delusional. It’s lose-lose with the miners.
Miners are going a lot lower.
One thing you DON’T want to do is look at Nasdaq monthly chart, remarkably similar to 2001’s crash, makes me question if we would even go sideways from here. Truly crappy and huge red candle with MACD/RSI still way up there.
QQQ also has a gap to $147.40, from there to reach that 10,000 magical target would require a 52% rise, to get there by July would need a resurrection which as we all know was a fable, as will be this expectation.
To look at the monthly chart you have to wait until end of this month…
But Spanky, think of all the experts pumping the metals all the time. They are always on the verge of a breakout, but only go down more.
We are always close to a breakout here and there, but it never happens
Oh Bitcoin….
You safehaven you……..
LOL, trying to drum up buyers for your magic beans again? Bitcon is just taking a breather, the slow leak will resume shortly.
Wow, GDX going to go sub $21 today. With gold at $1315 and silver down 1%. Wow. What a $hit sector.
At this point, I would say the miners have been discounting nationalization since 2008. There is no other explanation.
GDX is going to $16, if I had to bet.
The Russell etf IWM blew right through it´s 200 day MA.
Will Gary post something publicly if he believes his thesis is busted? I know its not his duty or obligation and he already posts a lot of free info.
I bought the cdn equivalents of qqq and spy about a minute before yesterdays close.
No, he’ll delete the portfolios, that will be your confirmation.
I guess the VIX is going to 50 again. Would be Epic no doubt about it.
OIL being taken to the wood shed and more… later.
GOOD!
You can hear a pin drop out there in MSM….The fear will not be palpable until ….
Ultimate Downside TARGETS: SPX <2,400-2500 & Dow 22,000-22,500.
SDOW has been serving hot dishes since Weds night.
Main course yet to come.
Nothing’s broken, all is well….
fast and furious
Absolutely critical to the miners and silver will be the nature of the next daily cycle in gold. My god though it doesn’t look promising right now. And where the hell is the DCL? Anyone want to take a stab?
It looks like the last DC in gold was 45 days? And I believe today is day 40 of this cycle. Another 5 days of this crap and the miners, oh the miners.
Not any longer do the miners have hope, I wouldn´t count on the next daily cycle doing anything other than save you a few pennies here and there, before failing again. GDX is going to below $16.
Look at AG, can it get any worse? Yep, $4 worse.
My AG is sub $5 today. holy hell.
Gary seems to disappear when his calls are so wrong he did not see this coming, unless we find out he sold days ago. But regardless of what is happening today I am holding. Markets can not go down forever!!! This could be capitulation washout. If not we are all in big trouble. The party in power can not preside over this kind of collaspe and stay in power.
Gary will simply adjust to the new reality, whatever that may be. Very flexible that way.
At all, he has simply go off to climbing.He come back later.Obviously you don’t know how person gary is.
What “collapse” are you referring to? The market corrected by approximately 11% and you call that a collapse? You might want to remember that markets do correct quite often even in strong bull markets.
lobster
22 000 on the DOW is a piece of cake. 19 000 is not out of question.
Similar theory to Gary’s.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1518012854.php
I am very sorry to hear that Dennis Gartman has declared we are in a bear market. That guy has been the best contrary indicator I have ever known of. His 90% failure rate exceeds any analyst that gets it right (or wrong).
Haha, I know of another outstanding contrarian indicator, very consistent with the years: Robert Prechter EW forcasts…
CANNOT get away from the synchronous views expressed by Dennis Gartner & the SMT comment poster…
” Gmoney “.
I think DG is a fan of SMT & he posts here as ” Gmoney”.
Glad to have you aboard Dennis !
Beautiful in its symmetry. From $20 to sub $5. Greatest bull market in history….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40371402151&a=576715139&listNum=1
Carlvan,
Your morning prediction is right on if we can just get that end of day up part now, please!
Let’s see what happens from here Primetime- NQ might retest its low, perhaps a couple of points lower at 6168 then reverse higher; at least that will be my bet from here…
SPANKY – I feel ya on AG/Mux – both of these are powerful options that the market apparently believes are going bankrupt one way or another.
This is sad – we’ll see if we survive of course, but the governments/CBs are shutting the doors on the roach motel one by one. They WILL kills us financially and literally if they can imo.
Looks like we see the SM ICL coincide with oil ICL dropping like rocks together.
TQQQ bounced off the 200 day. Maybe marking the bottom…
…or not.
amzn and nflx are still under pressure.
until we break and hold 1370 on gold, I’m shorting every overbot indicator on silver/gold I can find,lol.
The evil in this world wants to control us at any cost – and guys like Armstrong / Sinclair parading around pretending to ‘help’ should be put in chains. It would appear all these gurus with decades of deep experience and contacts at the highest levels are mere pawns of Satan.
Indeed Jimsee.
Makes me wonder if this Mayflower I’m on is really…..
Noah’s Ark !
the eclipse point (2/15) could be a retest high or a panic low in gold imo. good luck all.
We could be setting for the the mother of all Black Mondays.
agreed. reminds me of 1987. a week of constant selloffs and then a monday total collapse. then up and away after a slow start
Geez everyone here is so bearish… There’s nothing being panic bid right now except maybe VIX… Gold is even declining. VXX is barely even green on the day.
TQQQ now down 32% from it’s highs just 10 days ago. OUCH!!
Someone mentioned TQQQ | JNUG above. I thought Gary got out of leverage in the SM about 2 months ago and went old turkey into QQQ?
Are his subscribers in an active TQQQ trade and if so, from what level and position size? /NQ and /YM have a ways to go before testing 200ma, but /ES is already on the 200. My god, JDST is a monster. I sold around 60ish 🙁
/ES and SPX crashing through the 200.
Anyone who bought TQQQ or QQQ since October 27 and held on waiting for the great parabolic move, is now under water. That isn’t me being bearish, just a fact.
NADA, very nice play on JDST . I am starting to pick up a few miners for the long term hold.
Yeah, looks like they are good for a buy. Good luck.
Do you lack 50 dollar a month to subscribe?
Gmoney,
Before this thing turns and you disappear, I wanted to let you know to watch your a$$ on the way out. And if it dont turn the world is going to end or the market will go to 0, take your pick.
primetime:
Why such anger?
No anger, just calling out the nonsense….mother of all black Mondays….fear mongering, and playing on peoples emotions is wrong. thats it
But if it makes you feel better about yourself G, go ahead.
And what the heck is a HELOC, you got one? I dont, never heard of it.
I think it’s a home equity line of credit but I’m just guessing…
ok..any predictions for the close. markets bounce and close less than 1% down. gold closes positve…miners will be at zero by 4PM.
LMAO!!
Official bubble pop on black Monday February 12th. No doubt we bounce out of it but we are now in a bear market for stocks. Everyone fearing inflation has it backwards. There is no inflation and hasn’t been any for quite some time! Fed needs to cut rates!
Itsinthed..Where do you live that you are not seeing inflation?
USA.
for months and months SM talkers have been crowing about we need a correction..5-10% . so we are down around 10-11% now and folks are calling for the end of the world.
Human nature is so funny to just sit back and watch. They got what they were wanting, and now they aint happy.
+1 here roadrunner – emotions…
LOL that’s funny roadrunner….the miners are absolute GARBAGE!
But hopefully “Where there’s muck, there’s brass!”
The buy the dip crowd are piling into the Bios, Semis and Techs…… are they going to be rewarded this time?
looking like it
I don’t know guys. This looks awfully like the bottom, 2 PM, $NYAD doesn’t confirm, VXX doesn’t confirm, Dow futures support, commodities don’t confirm… I’m in on the dow at 23659
short covering and fomo to get started. If there is a V shape recovery that will lend an air of absolute invincibility to the market. Gary alluded to it in the vid, although the place he pointed out I think is a bit off. Using both gold and Bitcoin as an example both of these markets underwent something similar to what gary is predicting will happen with the US markets now.
Some examples Gold 2011 April 26th (I think there is a better example a bit earlier but cant get my daily chart to load back that far).
Bitcoin November 9th 2017
In both cases each suffered sharp rapid declines and V shaped out before going truly parabolic. Both were in steep uptrends prior to that as well, they just got a whole lot steeper once the market saw the successful ‘power move’ out of what looked pretty bleak at the time.
sorry that was meant to be a reply for Don on the comment just above.
NASDAQ is GREEN for the moment – Please tell me it’s over! I’m going to turn off my computer now.
It’s over! Turn off your computer and drink beer with your friends!
Hopefully Mining stocks don’t get left in the dust of the rally.
You can be sure they will be left behind. Can’t see them making any headway until the March FOMC. I pray that I am wrong and they rocket out of this low, but right now it don’t look so hot.
Gold could have still made its DCL yesterday. Yesterday’s low not taken out today (although close). We just need a higher high than yesterday and we will have a swing low and likely the DCL. Lots of damage done to miners. Hard to see the next DC as anything other than left translated. That being said, barring a total collapse next week, gold’s current daily cycle is strongly right translated and yet the miners made a lower low. Also, I believe we saw this same phenomenon in January 2016, FWIW.
It will take about 2.7 days for people to forget this and pile back in. Sheeple, Jelly.
Jelly Bean,
Look at the economy. Inflation is moderate but if you look at the markets you would think we are in the Jimmy Carter days. This is just a way to get you to sell to them at a price they manufactured.
We are getting the big bounce off the 200 now. Now we probably close greeeeen 🙂
If GDX closed positive, that would make me a little happier.
Just to clarify, I am referring to SM.
Going green…
SM up, miners down
SM down, miners down
gold up, miners down
gold down, miners down
“SM up, miners down
SM down, miners down
gold up, miners down
gold down, miners down”
sell miners, miners up
There fixed it for ya!
I like that! So true.
Nada,
I’m surprised you got time to post….those stones still aren’t big enough to pull the buy trigger?
@primetime I bought in my broker account and I put in a request for retirement accounts to buy at end of day. They are great at processing orders before close. I figure with the tag of the 200, we are close enough. I bought 35% position in roth and traditional in a fund that mirrors S&P500.
Thanks Nada, you do have tomatoes. Good luck with the trade.
If the Dow can close positive or just barely down, today almost certainly marks the DCL and ICL.
The GDX 2 hour chart suggests the carnage may be over for a couple of days. lol. We need a 2016 style rocket shot, but of course we won’t get it.
The TQQQ bounce off the 200 day has held and moving nicely up. Let’s see the close.
Wow! reversal candles everywhere! Waiting for the close. Waiting for uvxy to breakdown.
CARLVAN: right on my man! Great call today, if we can hold.
I believe JAKE called oil and SM will reverse together today, also great call
😉
Short the miners as a hedge against anything. The beta to the downside is stupendous.
FWIW there is a H&S on the GLD 10 minute chart projecting to 123. Could be DCL is ahead of us.
Miners negatively diverging from the SM now. They are basically negatively correlated to everything. Nice topping candle on the 1 hr chart. They will likely close at the lows of the day. Absolutely godawful sector.
Bought GUSH and DBC.
Anyone covering their oil shorts? I think I will book profits as a DCL may be in (and to restore my confidence!)
it’s a bit early but I’m off of this, switching for oversold stocks…
Test. Working?
OIL being taken to the wood shed FINALLY! $55 is a piece of cake, $49 cannot be rule dout. Inflation my ars!
Purported Ultimate Downside TARGETS: SPX <2,400-2500 & Dow 22,000-22,500.
SDOW has been serving hot dishes since Weds night.
Main course yet to come?
Friday could be calm norm before Monday storm.
You should know by now what happens to folks who get cocky.
“You should know by now what happens to folks who get cocky.”
Bluebelkid, It never fails. Market is a humbling experience.
Naw….we have found a bottom. Surprised oil has backed off as much as it has. Oil will dbl major triple from here.
Surprised is for the novice.
Maybe we will get lower gasoline prices, ya think?
So far we have a daily reversal candle for most stock indexes
It appears the 200 day was the place to buy but it’s still early. Today will go down as day 1 of an attempted rally. Now we wait for the confirmation.
Looks like the dip buyers have finally gained the upper hand.
GUSH:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GUSH&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p96043128409
Felt terrible but bought it anyway. Oil and the market linked. Nice close. Hope it lasts.
Based on the volume today in TQQQ, UPRO and UDOW I think we probably got the bottom.
If we start the slingshot Monday that will be the confirmation.
A rally/confirmation is one where we rally (like today) and then 4-7 days later we get the confirmation (similar type move accompanied with volume). Confirmations that come early or later tend to produce uptrends with no legs and they don’t go far. So, no we don’t want the confirmation to happen Monday. I know you do with the positions you are in but in the long run it is better it doesn’t happen.
Gary I bought some more calls today Sep 300 strike and above. When u say slingshot will it move up consecutive? Or are we going to get the up down bottoming process first? Miners made new lows today as well
Sept. 300?
Yes and 310. Also July 300. SPY not QQQ
Surely not on the QQQ?
No, not on QQQ. And don’t call him Surely.
September 300 will need a miracle to make you anything more than a few bucks, seriously, are you not aware of how options decay?
I mean unless NASDAQ hits Gary’s 10k target in July of course…
You did a good job keeping everyone calm Gary. I listened and bought in all accounts today. Only 35% in retirement accounts, will wait for swing to add more.
It’s too early to call the correction over, but not a bad bet. I have been out of pocket most of the day and not able to watch that closely. The fact that everything bounced off the 200 day is encouraging and would have been a good place to place bets but in real time that is easier said than done.
I have to say I agree. Dow and Nasdaq also closed back inside their daily Ichimoku clouds, with SPX getting close.
At the beginning of the week, I mentioned that a very critical number for the Dow was the 24190 level. End of the week and the Dow closed exactly 24190!
We may have had a turn around in stocks last call today Friday near closing…….it usually means rally will extend into Monday.
Closed SDOW(opened Weds night), and switched to UDOW before closing today for Monday.
Gold? Big reversal for oil and the SM today. Against all odds wonder if gold can pull off the same next week? That would be something and a real sign that inflation is making a return.
I dont’t believe this MSM-created fake notion of inflation coming…I dont see it at all.
They are just grasping at straws trying to blame stocks rout to something.
Oil next stop 55-56 but it really needs to be at $49 fair value. The rest is pumping up the price manipulation by Saudis and Trump is helping them and kind of looking the other way.
Right, no inflation now. Tommorow is a different story. Gold the ultimate inflation hedge. If it should magically spring to life after all the bugs have thrown in the towel and at a time of seasonal weakness, now that would be the tell on inflation. As for oil,as of today own lots. Let’s see what next week brings. Thanks
I work for a very large, very diversified manufacturer of hygiene products, etc. and I can tell you that our raw material prices are going way up across the board.
Here’s something that hasn’t happened in a while:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
that is why the FED pumped in the cash. it may have bottomed. last couple quarters it has been rising…which is what the FED wants. to keep liquidity in the economy and prevent a debt deflation they did this https://research.stlouisfed.org/datatrends/usfd/page3.php
What does it imply? Severe deflation?
Dow Jones closes 24190!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
”….I told you so…”
Panos
LOL…good call
🙂
palobar
February 5, 2018 at 12:15 pm
24190 on the Dow is a very important level.
Reply ↓
Sold my OILD, picked up some JNUG and one last tranche of TQQQ when it bounced off the 200. What a ride 🙂
I also sold my oil short… I was a little hesitant to buy miners as there’s some hesitation in gold… Why don’t you trade futures christian?
I certainly could but decided a few years ago to keep my investment/trading style relatively simple 🙂 The more time I spend with certain ETFs, the more I really get the ‘feel’ for them, if you know what I mean..
I trade futures because it gives me a benefit in terms of trading flexibility, ability to control margin and also because it’s more tax efficient, but obviously not for everyone. It’s really stupid that futures are taxed at 60% long-term and 40% short-term and you normally trade the same things I do like nasdaq, dow, gold, oil and you use leverage (which futures provides).
So was yesterday our stealth DCL in gold?
I’d wait to see if the dollar tags the Sept. lows before trying to pick a bottom to this cycle.
We may still have more selling next week. If so it would probably still rub off on miners.
GDX actually closed positive today, putting in an insane looking hammer candle.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p37856161142&a=576751965&listNum=1
$silver’s weekly candle looks awful to me. I expect a DCL next week in gold.
GDX is trading down over 30 cents in afterhours on 10million volume. Would expect a big gap down monday?
I don´t think that chart is correct on GDX closing unchanged, the HUI, NUGT, GDXJ etc were all down on the day and only bounced to middle of the range by the end of the day. Same with the XAU index.
Something big is lurking out there to see darlings like FNV get demolished over the last few weeks, it kind of reminds me how the 2008 financial collapse started. Not a prediction, just an observation as miners led and were first to crash, stocks came soon after.
uvxy beginning to breakdown, a welcome sign. It does not pay to look 2 steps ahead in the market. 1 step is enough. Nobody can outguess the market.
Broker dealers were relatively unscathed. Example: ibkr.
This market event is far from over. More downside next week……a lot more. A bounce off the 200 day is a normal pause on the way down.
Yes we know, you are the same mentality as Ted. You will keep repeating the same thing over and over and you’ll miss the turn just like Ted did.
I’ve been bullish for most of (but not all of) 2017, however, this latest decline is not business as usual.
That’s just completely meaningless drivel. More Monday morning quarterbacking. After the fact you want us to believe you timed everything perfectly. Well that kind of BS doesn’t hold water here on the SMT anymore. If you want anyone to take you seriously you have to make actual real time trades in the challenge.
I can tell you that not one single person went short or in anyway timed the top of the market. One person sold his semi’s pretty close to the top but then went into GBTC, which as it turns out didn’t turn out too well.
So as far as everyone is concerned no one spotted this in real time. Of course a lot of people would like to claim they did after the fact. But that doesn’t count anymore.
Gary: I never made any claim that I timed everything perfectly. All I said is that I was mostly bullish throughout 2017. Further, I think this latest decline has little in common with the other ICL’s you describe. People should be cautious here,
Check back with me in a few months on that GBTC when bitcoin goes to $35,000. LOL
Vin,
Regarding your question, yes I tried LABU but I prefer JNUG as I am very familiar with its dynamics.
I also feel comfortable with JNUG. Getting into a different ETF requires time to learn it and to become comfortable. In day trading the main think to focus in is to obey the ‘rules.’ This is the difficult part.
I am trying UVXY as a second option.
Have a nice weekend!
The miners went to bed with the SM last night.
Today they wanted more of last night and so they were chasing Mr. SM.
Very unusual.
I hear Christian got into JNUG. I am glad.
I loaded more JNUG shares.
Get on board.
This is trade to be in!
palobar
“Dow Jones closes 24190!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ”
Folks noticed it. I don’t know how but you did it. I don’t think it’s a super co-incidence, anyway, congrats.
Could you please give the # for DJ in a month or so ahead, for sure we will start paying attention if you get it right next time… (( :
I think this chart is a compelling picture of buyer enthusiasm on the dow. Look at Tuesday and Friday, the two bounce days. The volume was close to record on both days. Notice how the bounce days just manage to close within the confines of the Bollinger bands. There is more downside to come here. Buyer confidence and enthusiasm is playing right into this decline.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p14139426246&a=576773942&listNum=1
Excellent chart and I agree 100%. A decline from the extremes the market was at in late January will not get resolved quickly. There is definitely more downside.
I would like to see a heavy BoW day as a sign the banks are ready to step in. Haven’t seen one yet. Of course it could have come today except the market closed green, so we can’t know.
whats a BoW???
The current correction has now reached 11.6% on the Nasdaq and 11.8% on the S&P 500 from prior highs.
Going back more than three years and not including the current correction, the Nasdaq has had corrections of about 19%, 18%, 10% (rounded up) and 11%.
The deeper corrections lasted six to 10 weeks, while the shallower corrections ran four to six weeks.
Traditionally a correction is defined as a pullback of 10% or more, and a bear market 20% or more.
What we are waiting on now is a follow thru day or confirmation as today counted as day 1 of an attempted rally. And like I said it is better if the confirmation comes on day 4 or later. Here is what we are looking for:
To count as a follow-through day, at least one major index (mainly the S&P or Nasdaq) needs to close up 1.25% or higher in volume heavier than the prior day. Volume does NOT have to be above average; just higher than the prior day. And note that not every follow thru succeeds as about 25-30% of the time the rally attempt fails and the markets drop back into correction mode.
SOX and IBB held support today, and FB printed a huge hammer. If the bullish NDX scenario remains intact, the potential leaders appear ready to resume the advance. The Transports also printed a big hammer and there was a VIX buy signal. The market is one up day from creating a momentum reversal out of an extreme oversold condition, and retail sentiment is wrist-slashingly pessimistic. Time for cake?
It will be interesting to see how next week shapes up, on the one hand there are lots of bottom pickers, people confident we´ve turned higher, giving high fives, and nobody seems to have thrown in the towel on their longs yet. On the other hand, we are no doubt oversold on any technical measure, we saw a sharp rally end of the day, and Gary´s cycles also dictate a low in here. Crazy trading!
GDX/GDXJ — IS THE BOTTOM IN?? MAYBE..
That reversal and the double bottom in the Juniors is why I bought Miners today. That and the 5 Day RSI is very heavily oversold which gives me confidence that we might’ve printed a bottom.. if not THE bottom, then ‘close enough’ IMO.
I’ll be honest, I would have liked to have seen the dollar bump up against Resistance @91 and perhaps a swing low in Gold BUT I have noticed time and time again that the Miners will on occasion diverge from the Metals, meaning on occasion Miners will bottom before Gold and vice versa.
I’m basically banking on it.. that being said I don’t think GDX will get past 24 (.618 Fib) before rolling over into a more significant bottom — Gary and Gold Predict mentioned March FOMC.
I ignored the ‘naysayers’ and made some pretty decent money on OILD, so I don’t mind taking a risk with the Juniors. This is a ‘swing trade’ btw so my timeline is fairly short term and I’m using play/beer money 🙂
Christian, I think you made a good decision. Barrick has hit a major support zone @ 13 and I believe that the rest of the sector will most likely follow. I think that there will probably be a couple more days of back testing this support but I think it should hold for a bounce if not the bounce.
It’s a risk.. but it’s a measured risk.
I’ll sell when the RSI rolls back up to +/- 75%
Sounds about right, miners should bounce soon, also it will be a weak bounce. I am not going to try to catch it, will just wait for the new lows to load up. it´s not like there aren´t plenty of areas with action these days, I might even look to buy some marijuana stocks, uraniums, etc while miners decide what they are going to do, but the fact is all the rallies have been very weak throughout 2017 and recently, while we just broke the support area Friday that has been tested 4 times. Unfortunately for longs, miners are going lower.
They go down when stocks go down, they go down when stocks go up, they go down when gold goes up, so if this is a bottom, nobody should expect fireworks to the upside. And longs better hope momentum to downside in any market resumes bc we know miners will go down alongside it. They had every stinking excuse to rally and could barely get out of bed, they are sick!
Almost forgot, GDX and GDXj have flipped to SELL on my long term (monthly) charts. It does not mean they crash, but it usually means they are going lower for many weeks at a very minimum and probably longer. In any case, I wouldn´t bet they are going up bigly other than a day or two for longs to feel good, but I would sell into that move it it occurs!
I did something similar on Wed afternoon, I bought 2k of Fresnillo @ £12.29. (I’m in the UK) I’m currently evensteven on the trade after taxes/costs etc. They just seemed to be massively oversold on the day (-5%) and that’s after a whole week of selling and due a decent bounce. Hopefully its a short term trade. The last time i did this tho it took me 12 months to make a profit from them. (I did get a decent one tho in the end.)
Gary, I am just curious, what is the lower yearly cycle low on the SIL telling you in relation to your cycle analysis?
I’ve never tried to use cycles on the miners. Gold is the cyclical driver of the metals sector. Where gold goes the rest of the sector usually follows.
Sometimes, like now, when gold is going down and stocks are in an ICL decline the miners can get hit exceptionally hard. Much harder than would normally happen if the miners where just following gold down.
Thou shalt not sell any OIL shorts until at least $55 dudes.
Christian, this chart is for you.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p16049679193&a=576807645&listNum=1
Thank you!
Gary i dont understand whre is your stand on precious metal? Are we going down for long term?
Did you watch my previous video?
The market just got a little too stretched above the 12 month moving average. It came back to tag it, which it’s done many times in the past. Since it’s still too early IMO for the next multi-year cycle low where price should drop below the average we’re probably about done with the correction.
If all the years of QE are going to trigger a bubble then price should stretch far above the average like it did in 2000.
Gary,
For your information and for this board, Chris Ciovacco in his latest message as of the market close on Friday 02/09/2018 says that a very important level on the S&P is 2558. If S&P closes below that level on Friday 02/16/2018, then he will make significant adjustments to protect capital in the accounts that he manages. However, he feels that this down move is a correction in a bull market. He also says it may take two months or more to find a bottom.
It is at least reasonable to expect some kind of double top.
Last call to take advantage.
The safe is all broken and the miners riches are all spread on the floor.
This JNUG trade is a no brainer one. The odds by far are in favor.
What is not so easy is to seize the opportunity and to have the guts to put the though on the table.
This is the time to go old turkey.
“We were told to never miss a rally”
Last call, last call, last call!
goild- postma over on ker says there will be a last call… Gary saying pretty much the same… so is Flanagan at Gann….
Goild´s time frame for a trade is a half hour, dosen´t apply to most of us.
Jim,
This time I plan to hold for a good while.
Join the rally!
Don’t be a chicken!
Goild I dig your trading style with the golds.
CONSTANTLY extracting value before or after lunch – in a sector where long waits…..
Means entombment in a sarcophagus.
Wonder how many commentors are actually……
Mummies?
Yikes!
Stay nimble G !
Tulip,
Gary actually said to wait more. He plays the exhaustion system.
As I said before realizing that this can be a heck of an opportunity is a piece of cake.
But a very different matter is to put the dough on the table and to enter and exit properly.
Hope you are doing very well with your trading.
You are missed here in the blog.
As you can see the blog has become very civilized and useful.
Stay tuned!
The SPX made a FAILED daily cycle yesterday. That’s right, a failed daily cycle.
That’s what is supposed to happen during ICL’s. We haven’t had one in a long time. We were overdue to get back to normal.
I can’t argue with that one. I need to drink more coffee before I post..
It feels like 2005 all over again for the miners and today the HUI is at the same level! Back then, the gold price was holding strong in fact rising but the miners were getting a beat down. I too have been plugging my nose and adding to my long term holdings. I plan on some JNUG next week as well. Miners will double from around these washout levels and more. Gut wrenching!
I agree they will double, but I don´t think they are starting up from these levels, they could very easily lose 30 or 40% in just a few weeks, before a rally that doubles in price.
Of course we will get a bounce here and there, maybe lasting a few days, but then what? Miners had every excuse to rally hard, and instead they sold off sharply, so I will look for another entry much below 2016´s lows on the HUI, could even be in the 120 range. It sounds impossible, but anything is possible with this group.
Wishing the best for you King.
Hard core miner investors of a decade or more are blessed ( or is it cursed lol) with the patience of The prophet Job. I think gold 1300 is the DMZ. Above why not below, hell no.
Been in a rush this morning trying to identify these guys today.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-10/stocks-no-longer-make-sense-me-heres-why-quants-are-embracing-bitcoin
I searched the galley, then the starboard then what da ya know…..
The crows nest & bingo. There they were.
Exciting times……
On the Mayflower.
Above entry in no way means Gary’s SM calls aren’t going to happen.
I think they are. Especially Nasdaq 10K.
Sure the meek will inherit the earth…
But that inheritance is gonna come from the dream machine – TQQQ & something else that I’m sure your imagination can conjure…..
When you think about Plymouth Rock.