Strictly Necessary Cookie should be enabled at all times so that we can save your preferences for cookie settings.
If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.
Why didn’t the PPT step in?
they were busy gangbanging Janet.
Do you have their phone # or e-mail?
Now I am frightened too. It’s really hard thinking about leverage right now.
ya, look at the futures…., scary abt tomorrow, but I just transferred my whole retirement RRSP account into US big companies (TRIMARK)
Should have taken that $1,000 bet with Gary…
16 times during this bull market I’ve warned people not to panic during ICL’s. 16 times I warned people I was going to say “I told you so”.
16 times almost everyone ignored me…
and 16 times I ended up telling everyone I told you so.
Shall we make it 17?
This is why I make money in the market. More money than almost every hedge fund. Because I do the opposite of the crowd. When others are scared I’m bullish.
With the VIX spiking 115% today I’m bullish.
It doesn’t mean the bottom will occur tomorrow. But it does mean that 6 months from now I’m going to have a lot more money in my account while most of you will have made nothing.
You will have sold when you should have been buying, and having sold at the bottom you will remain fearful way too long and miss most of the next rally. Just like you do out of all the ICL’s.
Emotions are tough to control. It’s why most people are unable to make any lasting gains in the market, because most people are incapable of fighting their emotions.
And you’re long how Gary? Curious when and what position you took with your view. Just curious.
Heck we’ve been long every since the August low. Remember when everyone was predicting a September or October crash?
Everyone stayed on the sidelines worrying about an event that was never going to come. Why? Because the ICL occurred in August. September and October were way too early for another ICL.
Now everyone is going to panic at the bottom just like they always do at ICL’s, Then they will miss most of the next intermediate rally.
You watch if we gap down tomorrow the blog will light up with calls for a crash. Traders will be selling left and right. The correct strategy will be to buy left and right.
Well who knows, at this rate S&P may find support at 2500 near the August low of 2400-ish.
the bet is going to be fun!
I think the miners may have bottomed today.
The situation looks awful, quite awful.
Start praying.
Got rid of 1000 JNUG shares: Bad choice.
Bot 100 UDOW shares: Bad choice.
Goild, who knows?
Best of luck!
Hey Goild,
Are you working to a consistent trading strategy?
Vin,
You right, no body knows.
Crashes from a 3 standard deviation level above the 200 day don’t end so nicely. There is much more downside left and an enormous amount of leverage in the red that needs to be resolved. People are too complacent about this crash and assume is will pass soon. Mean reversion is very very painful at these levels. – by the way futures limit down as I write this.
Show me an example of this.
87 crash
Nope. The 87 crash dropped for about 2 months then recovered to make a double top before the crash.
silver 2011
Again not the same thing. Silver was at a parabolic top stretched far above the 200 DMA. 81% above the 200 DMA.
At the recent top the Nasdaq was only 17% above the 200 DMA. Clearly not in a final bubble top.
Gary, I talking standard deviations – not % above the 200 day. Find your statistics textbook and refresh you memory on standard dev.
I’m telling you we aren’t in the kind of environment to get another 87 crash. Sentiment is becoming too bearish too quickly.
We are creating a bear trap and one that will almost certainly reverse violently causing the shorts that get trapped maximum pain.
The futures have finally hit oversold on the weekly RSI.
RSI
Daily RSI is at 6. Only the 7 YCL was lower.
Gary, I bought Spy call but way too early now underwater. It’s hard to hold in this bloodbath
Options are like going all in on a poker bet.
The most important rule is to always always buy way more time than you think you’ll need just in case the move takes longer than you expect to play out. I wouldn’t buy anything closer than September expiration.
We are creating a monster bear trap. The rubber band is getting pulled far to the downside. Once the pressure is released we are going to get an extremely violent move back up.
This is not the time to be short.
The Nasdaq 10,000 target went from being 38% away to 58% at this time. You still see it as achievable?
There is no doubt the Nasdaq will hit 10,000.
This is a traders dream folks…step back and remember when you wished there was a pull back in the market to enter? HERE IT IS! Of course my initial punts are down 50% and I want to puke. That’s a sure sign it’s Time to buy…my TDapp locked up in the panic but I still managed to add to my UDOW calls and that ‘add’ has already gone from 1.40 to 2.50. This is a what I call a WASH to scoop up all those neatly placed stop loss orders and nothing more. stocks and bitcoin dropped and gold didn’t move today…this is a fake out and a big one but still a fake out
Yeah that’s what smells to me. If this were truly a major crisis in the back end I think gold would be spiking.
If this was a real crisis, bitcoin would be spiking, not crashing.
Bitcoin has not been around long enough to have a history weathering crisis situations
A little off topic – look at Bitcoin, it is in full blown crash mode. 5000’s tomorrow or lower.
INFLATION:
As previously posted won’t be buying the general market until we hit 2500 or so on the S&P. The way the market is unraveling that could be tomorrow. However, sold DUST and ERY my commodity hedges for what I still hold (old turkey) and will now be adding to miners, oilers and industrial metals and maybe grains. Most held up well during this downdraft. Inflation the next big market theme. Want to be positioned with size.
Good luck in these interesting times.
this one does look different imo – the timing is bad juju , ‘they’ will likely put it back together *eventuallly* – but maybe months spent convincing everyone it won’t FIRST.
This could well be politically motivated – throw out all you think you know in that case – like gold for the past 4 years or so – they will run their game till collapse because in their minds they still get their pension ‘no matter what’.
Funny how this happens as Yellen exits. Maybe she disabled the PPT computers on the way out – to make Trump look bad.
Futures in free fall. Leverage does not like being involuntarily unwound.
What do you consider a free fall?
http://www.cmegroup.com/
Oh, bitcoin futures…got it.
scroll down to the Equity section
This is when PED’s analysis is really missed. Too bad he was bullied off the site. HA
I agree.
He left voluntarily probably because all of his market calls were wrong.
Nothing “normal” about this move. ICL’s don’t drop almost 2k Dow points in less than 8 hours.
Nada,
What is not normal about a 10% stock market correction every couple years? The cycle is stretched and it must drop quick….
Referring to velocity.
Exactly! It was numbing.
like the old wall street saying – valuations do NOT matter until they do (earnings growth stalls and stock prices lose momo).
10% correction in 5 trading days – if it goes materially lower than that it has a real good shot at starting the loss of confidence stage – it’s been a DAMN long wait.
This is what comes of burying our collective head in the sand ‘as long as I gets paid’. eventually the corruption simply implodes in internecine warfare.
You buying GOLD?
bot gdxj today. NEM was resilient in the teeth of the selling storm on the SPX.
No PPT in place, free fall, and fear is just setting in.
Wait till the end of the week.
There will be a deep ANT hole in the SM chart.
For the futures to fall, someone must be selling.
I wonder what is open where you can sell shares?
a 50% retrace if the 2016 low-2018 high is reasonable if there is no quick turnaround imo.
about 500 spx points or so.
How much the S&P futures are down in after hours trading doesn’t mean a damm thing, UNLESS the PPT declines to step in and buy before the American exchanges open in the morning. Remember, they have unlimited funds and if they fail to intervene, that would be a good indication that there is a different attitude at the FED towards supporting the markets at any cost.
This does not look like the common ICL that we have been having. Its looking like a crash. Maybe we get a failed DCL
This is a YCL.
The last really scary one came at the 7 YCL in Feb. of 2016.
We are getting the 2018 YCL in the same early in the year time frame. Since we didn’t really have any scary ICL’s in 2017 we are making up for it this year.
I’ll say it again, when this bottoms it’s going to be violent.
Guys, Gary will eventually be right. But from what level? His max upper channel trendline certainly looks to be working out fine. The right translated rally corrections wouldn’t be too deep certainly is working. Lol
I never said they couldn’t be deep. I said they almost never drop below the previous ICL.
Trendline level for Spx is 2700, futures is at 2500 ish. That’s around 2000 Dow points! Yes, that’s right. Gary is still right, and can laugh you clowns??? Hmmm…. How do call this a good call?
I expected at least a pullback to the trend line breakout. It has gone further than that yes. But the big picture hasn’t changed.
The Nasdaq is still going to 10,000.
When we bottom and then go back to making new highs will this be a good call?
Or do you require perfect timing for every trade no matter how much money we make in the end?
If one has to weather a 30% drawdown on the way to making 100% is it a bad call?
It’s not a bad call just unfortunate timing and as long as you’re trading with the trend than a 30% drawdown is somewhat manageable.. unless you’re over-leveraged.
30%???? I assume you say that relative to 3x leverage?
Yes, if you’re leveraged to the hilt — it sucks!
This is why ‘position sizing’ is so important and why it’s important to always keep a bit of dry powder on the off chance we get a ‘clouds falling out of the sky’ type of event.
Bare in mind that back in 2009 a lot of folks where still heavily invested in their mutual funds from top to bottom and have since recovered. It’s a difficult pill to swallow but as the saying goes — this too shall pass.
Isn’t it a bad call if one is holding 3X …… 30% drop means more than 90% drop in 3X ….. WOW!
Liquidity has taken a huge hit today. There have been big gaps in the bid/ask on /NQ all day and it continues tonight. The short volatility unwind is really exacerbating the move down. And now we have a lawyer running the Fed. This won’t be the typical ICL. More like dislocation.
Christian bought more TQQQ
Anthonyo also bought UDOW
Myself 100 UDOW shares.
I am expecting to lose $1000 tomorrow morning on those UDOW shares.
That’s because your “trading” methodology is different than mine. I tend to focus on the big picture and don’t get scared very easily when the market turns.
Today’s nasty turn has all the characteristics of a shakeout and I’ve already seen my fair share over the past decade.. That’s why I bought more shares today and will buy tomorrow or the next if we gap down.
Again, this is why it’s important to study Market/People psychology 🙂
Yes, it’s tedious work but it pays off, especially when you’re trading a large account.
Just add UDOW as it goes down.
Most of my investment is in TQQQ but I think UDOW will do just as well, and could very well outperform.
Agreed; it seems The Dow is the flag bearer(no pun intended) of the move down… as it was also the leader in most recent gains as of 3-6 months.
All this hype, and gold and silver could essentially care less!
Up, up and away….there go the futures!
NYMO Last: -118 Lol!
The only other time I’ve seen the NYMO this low in the gutter was back in 2011.
This is a ‘BUY’ signal!
The current minus -550 Dow futures is less than half an hour ago where it was at -720 deficit …………..This deficit could evaporate in Daylight….. We have seen this happen before…….
The energy down is spent overnight in Futures………..Once it sees day light it rallies…………Let;s see if it happens again…..
Also, NASDAQ is not cooperating and is down just a bit : NASDAQ futures are down 8 times less than Dow Futures in % terms.
This what you call divergence between indices.
Traditionally NASDAQ has pulled the Dow and SPX behind it in line.
———
OIL: What I cannot understand is why Oil is still above $60? It is mind boggling.
Perhaps Gary could shed light on this oddity.
Gary what are your thoughts on the dollar during this big correction in stocks and massive crash in the crypto market? I’d have thought the dollar would be rallying very strongly given that a lot of the liquidity from stocks and cryptos is going into the dollar, but the dollar isn’t rallying much at all.
Cheers Jeremy
One of the hardest rules I had to learn early in my career is never never never sell during a panic. When the VIX is over 30 this is not the time to be selling. It’s the time to buy.
NASDAQ Futures just turned positive.
Dow only minus -251 points down.
It is repairing itself as hypothesized before by yours truly.
All 3 main financial indices in positive territory now.
Whoosh down over for now, it seems.
All green now on futures….could it really a two day rinse? Naaaaahhhh that would be too easy. Interesting if the euro rally’s and the dollar dives and the SM goes up 3%….
Wave 3 done, Wave 4 Up begins.
After going to bed with NQ futures down 2.5% more last night, I´m a little surprised to see them up .8% at the moment. Maybe Gary will be proven correct again?
Well today is Tuesday, and last week I mentioned bitsploink tokens would go to $6K by today, and as I type it´s trading under it, with not morethan a half hour bounce all along the way. Nobody but a few fools want this now, and the only think bagHODLers can do is take the exit on the next bounce. The only problem is a $1000 bounce now will seem like nothing to a bagHODLer, but they might not even get many of those being they would now be 20% moves, so they won´t settle for that, and thus ride their imaginary beans straight to $3 each.
They are so in love with their beans, they wouldn´t even sell right now at yesterday´s price of $7700, as I said they would soon wish they had. There should be no doubt in anybody´s mind, ¨secret tokens¨are cooked or many, many years, IF they ever get off the floor again, just because of the fact nobody considers them anything more than a gamble anymore, maybe speculation for a bounce but not an ¨investment¨.
Next target is around $2k, it could get there quickly, but my wager will be it takes awhile, maybe until mid-April, a slower, grinding deflation like a basketball that has already lost 70% of it´s air, the rest is coming out but at a slower leak. Once the shock adrenaline wears off from the cliff dive, this next stage is the depression stage, where bitclowns start to realize they were invested in the biggest bubble of all time and didn´t make a dime, nor is it ever coming back. Dazed and confused, they don´t know what move to make next so will sit with their near worthless beans quietly forever.
DCL of SM is round the corner indeed but:
– all European indexes are in confirmed YC decline by producing today/yesterday failed IC below the ICL on Jan2 (the Aug low was only an ICL, not YCL),
– European indexes are early in their IC – merely week 5,
– US indexes require another failed DC giving the level of extreme selling –> mot likely a short DC to extend into the first week of March.
Thus, this is not just an intermediary decline but Yearly Cycle decline and the YCL of SM is more likely to occur in early March after the dead-cat bounce to come these days.
…Furthermore, look at FTSE, it went below the ICL in September!
By taking its lead and the fact that world’s SMs are in YC decline, we can infer that the bottom in March will be below the Aug ICL.
During the 2000 bubble the Nasdaq dropped 10% in 3 days into an ICL. It didn’t signal the end of the bubble.
As of yesterday’s close the Nasdaq was down 7% from the all time highs. It only seems bigger because we’ve had such a long period of calm. But in reality this isn’t that big of a correction. The flash crash, QE 2 crash, and the 7 yCL were all much bigger in percentage terms and none of them signaled the end of the bull market. Even both ICL’s in 2014 were larger than the current ICL.
Monthly swing high in SM.
I am not suggesting an end of the SM bull; I am only proposing the idea that the DCL set yesterday (most likely) is not the bottom of this correction because this correction is an Yearly Cycle decline.
The only problem I have with a retest or undercut is the daily cycle is on day 55 and the weekly cycle on week 24. A lower low in March would really stretch those cycles.
Uh oh! https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-06/xiv-svxy-halted-news-pending
PPT alive and well this morning. We just had an intervention.
Why you say that, Nada?
Down futures were down 450 pts and then spiked to only 50 points down. Looks like they are trying to gain control, but volatility is flipping the middle finger. I suspect that’s where the battle will have to be won to gain control. With that said, those who thought it was a sure thing to short volatility yesterday, are now bankrupt.
I think it’s pathetic that government has to hold the children’s little hands in the markets and buy futures.
Gary, if this is ICL, why do you think it’s going to end in 2 days? ICLs last weeks, not days. I will wait for the swing before entering as I am in no rush to pick the bottom – I only do that in gold 🙂
Yes, it was clearly intervention, gonna be an interesting day.
Gary, yes, you are right, this daily cycle has to end.
I was considering having one more daily cycle, a short one, topping at the end of next week (around FED’s Congress report) and then aggressively moving down into jobs report in March –> extending the Intermediary Cycle with just +4w into YCL.
Gary, you must at least consider the possibility that we have just seen the peak of the multi-year bull market, and the Trump melt-up was the euphoria phase. I know you are a technical analyst, but stuff like on valuations, for example, the Buffett Indicator hit a record 159% on Jan 29th. Even if it is an imperfect indicator, it would be irrational to expect even more extreme deviation away from the long term mean.
Gary you still taking 10k on NASDAQ by July bets?
he he
I do think we get to 10,000 by July.
I think this is going to set up a very aggressive next cycle once this is finished.
Tops are a process. Not a one week event.
Dixie is going to unleash the hounds of hell on gold soon enough.
LOL, I don´t think the buck makes a bit of difference at this particular time, people have plenty of other areas stealing their focus. I haven´t even checked the buck, with all the action we´ve been seeing!
Oh it does. If you believe the markets will calm, then what do you think will happen when gold snaps out of the dream state? Its going to awaken to the horror of a whistling Dixie and loose it’s shit. Granted, we first need the markets to calm.
Personally I would rather see the markets lose 3000 dow points to make me happy, but that’s because I love the bear. Bear markets are much more fun than boring bull.
I agree. Silver is already signaling a major breakdown is imminent. Commodities are toast in general as the Dow makes the mother of all moonshots.
Long time lurker, but just noting that Avi, Gary and even the likes of Cramer are all saying buy the dip here. Seems like most analysts are treating it as such, which is unusual to say the least.
LMAO!!!! Bitcon! Why didn´t I think of that? Might get a short lived bounce now that $6K has been breached, that apparently is the average cost of ¨production¨for a bitcon token. Either way, it´s a selling opportunity, so get out while you still can bc the price will go much lower.
http://321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty020618.html
Many of us have been pointing out for a while that the true value of bitcoin is 0. It’s a grand Ponzi scheme that anyone with a lick of common sense should have been able to see. But clearly we are no smarter in the 21st century than we were in the 15th.
The more often Cryptos/bitcoin are transfered, the larger the ledger becomes and more work for the miners to do to get paid.
It’s my belief that the unintended benifit of Cryptos is technology that will make the cost of electricity much cheaper in the future.
Definitely the markets are being managed this morning. Have to save the little children from mean ol bear. Looks they have started to attack volatility to gain control.
Let us make money today!
I put an order to buy LABU at 79.79 ….. missed it literally by 2 dammed seconds!!!!!
… thought of you as a day trader and the split second action needed!
Enjoy the ride today.
Sold my LABD at 4.02 for a nice profit. It looks like the PPT has stepped up to the plate.
Trading in XIV has been suspended??
The semis and bios are leading the charge and just screaming upwards.
I am getting fed up with the gold sector.
We got the gap down and reversal I was looking for.
It’s looking real good for me saying “I told you so”.
This will be the 17th time BTW.
YEs, to the rally. THe question is what happens after? Business as usual with the NQ Blasting off to 10k or rally and a long consoilidation process digesting the damage done. Fan of the later. Commodity stocks are now a the best bet with inflation creeping into the markets imo.
10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question when we get to the really nutty phase.
By the end of March?
Let us first do some basing action and let the mas on intra day charts acquire positive slopes. When the time comes, it will move. There are no magic chants that can move the market before the time comes.
Gary,
How far are the DCL are we in miners? Thanks
I said on the premium site I would not be doing anything with the metals right now, because there is the possibility that the dollar may be putting in a final ICL.
Now is the time to focus on the stock market as it completes it’s YCL. There will be many weeks of rallying ahead in that market once the YCL is confirmed.
There is plenty of room for more pain with the dollar coming out of an ICL. Silver is going to new lows and the pathetic commodity rally from late 2017 is over.
And just like that , anyone holding XIV gets stabbed in the back with locked in and massive losses. Neat trick for Credit Suisse that ensures they aren’t the losers. Billions of dollars gone in an instant and overnight yet. Anyone that thought ETN’s were ‘safe’ investments has just found out otherwise.
The VIX etf’s are tricky. I learned my lesson several years ago on those. I no longer trade them at all. I’ll let others dabble in the vix. Just like I’ll let others play with bio.
Has there been a precedent with other ETF in the past? Disturbing…
ETFs and ETNs are not the same thing. There has been problems in the past with ETNs.
If you want to continue playing the short vola, take whatever the NAV of XIV is 2/20/18 and buy SVXY. Seems this one will continue to trade and both are doing the same thing.
The general rule is playing out for Gold which is what does not go up when it supposed to do so, falls down hard
Silver is in serious trouble IMO. I think the metals and commodities are going to plunge on this moonshot move in the stockmarket
Is the carnage really over? Or, just a pause?
Looks pretty weak, I’d say just a pause.
GOLD = 26-27 March
I will be very busy later so just in case I forget to share it. Mark this date on your calendar. As for the time windows before that, I will share them shortly.
I tend to think we did print the YCL this morning, but either way we saw how violently the recovery is going to be when the bottom is struck.
Like I said this is going to set up a huge bear trap and the next phase of the bubble will be even more aggressive than the last one.
Maybe so. But if USD did a ICL then that would mean that gold next daily cycle could be shortened one and we left translate? Maybe gold Intermediate cycle has alrdy topped
Too much leverage being forced to be unwound. This event is far from over.
G is going for 17.
17 times now I’m going to tell traders “I told you so”.
LOL, you got that right!
It will take time for selling to exhaust itself.
I am shocked, but not surprised that XIV tanked so much that it will be shut down. I mean I planned for it to potentially happen, but it’s kind of crazy it actually did! I had been investing a small portion of what I own in XIV, but after the ferocity of the selloff, liquidated my holdings before it really tanked. Very glad I did! This selloff is so fierce, I have a feeling today is not the last of it. Seems to me like tomorrow may be the day.
Remember folks, the rally out of YCL’s tend to be the most powerful rallies.
We are well into the YCL right now. The VIX hit 50 this morning.
Not sure about the rate of recovery. Let us leave it to the market. tqqq made a complete retrace to 138-140 area, early Jan level. Folks who got in around this range should do ok over time.
Gold = 21-22 February
What is the significance of this date? Reversal? Top? Bottom?
Nice call Gary!!
I hope those semis are rested enough to take off.
Going climbing. Will see where we close.
I don’t need to watch the wild swings today as we try to print a final YCL.
Keep in mind at this point the total decline was only 9.7%. There have been 5 corrections during this bull that were larger. At this point it only seems like a major crash because we’ve had such a long period of calm. But in reality this is just a pretty normal YCL.
Whats the deal with gold anyone going to try play this DCL?
I think traders should stay away from gold right now. The dollar may be printing a final ICL. If it is then gold is going to struggle until the dollar tops.
The place to be is in stocks as they are in the process of making a major YCL.
Gold is in no man’s land here with a potential short cycle maybe topping.
Yup makes sense
sounds good.
B safe.
Redundancies
SIL waterall decline/spike lower is imminent:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p60106456618&a=576023581&listNum=1
Gary wrote>>>>> Going climbing. Will see where we close.
I don’t need to watch the wild swings today as we try to print a final YCL.
Nada asked about Ted the other day.
I said that Ted was fine & on the Mayflower,
That was wrong of me to do.
I had no right to speak for Ted. Who am I to take away his agency?
That’s the OPPOSITE of Bitcoin,
So while Ted is on the Mayflower, I assume he is fine as there really is only one way out.
Total Glory ( $25K June , 50K EOY) or doom. I am looking forward to the upcoming new moon that will work like a Bloody Mary after this horrible January hangover.
I’m stoked & appreciate the fact you are all doing YOUR prep work for being happy for me & all on the Mayflower this Spring.
Thanks Again !
So they HALT trading on XIV ! Shouldn’t that be ILLEGAL?
I sure hope there will be a Class Action law suit on this to the highway robbers in charge of XIV.
Uh, they have something called a prospectus that lays out all of the risks in bloody detail.
You play with derivatives like ETNs and ETFs and you are assuming risk way beyond the underlying.
ForgetAboutIt, they should still be sued. Prospectus my ars. Ohm there must be many ways to get them, not only one. All you need is a resourceful legal team.
XIV VXX have been known to be bullshit and garbage for a long time, even Credit Suisse in their prospectus says DO NOT OWN MORE THAN ONE DAY.
Why do people buy these? Because they are idiots thinking they will make quick money.
VIX itself is tricky to trade, the long side works out with proper timeframe and timing, downside puts WILL DECAY LIKE YOUR BURIED RELATIVES and unless you have a butterfly setup, just stay out of this.
Class Action suits will be thrown out if anyone is foolish enough to try them, it’s all outlined by the issuer, plainly says to expect this to unwind to $0.00.
I understand they are different and not ETNs, but I really don´t trust 3x etfs, either. There might be surprises there one day.
$hui within 7-8 pts of breaking below the ICL.
Bingo & key to Mayflower thesis.
Bitcoin is NOT the Nasdaq
Bitcoin is Topix.
https://mobile.twitter.com/fundstrat/status/960888091463618560/photo/1
Nada,
Good call on the miners.
Though I rebot 1K JNUG shares.
Yeah I exited JDST this morning. I am going to play some volatility (short) like you Goild 🙂
As usual the miners ignore any sense of support from Fibonacci levels. Blows right through them.
If the next DC in gold is left translated, the miners are absolutely screwed.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/xiv-trader-ive-lost-4-million-3-years-of-work-and-other-peoples-money-2018-02-06
Time to go triple short BONDS.
Writing is on the wall.
A Leaky balloon: It gets air inside of it, stays inflated for a bit, and then slowly deflates….
SUCH is the status of today’s intra-day stock mini-rallies.
OIL: A brutal decline is coming for oil.
Why, Anthonyo?
Nada – Your exit of JDST but not looking to long JNUG? we just hit the 78 Fib. Gary also seems reluctant also, that’s a surprise as he was calling the bottom for PM’s & miners in this week few days ago.
So what am i missing??
Well, I started buying this morning and man has it been a roller coaster. Only put about 1/4 of my money in and was up over $4000 and then that turned into a $10,000 loss only to come back and be up $4000 again. Currently up $2000.
I concur- same here with NQ futures…
Yes Bluebellkid like wise. Also JDST was not moving in the same ratio to JNUG frustratingly..
fangs, pnqi, tcehy, fdn, etc. are getting back into the go,go mode. Another potential entry point?
Afternoon isavage. Well for me, I wanted to lock in the profits I had from JDST. I was long from around 50, so a 10 point move was good enough. I think gold has further to drop, but with the markets acting squirrely, I do not want those profits evaporating in case the sell off is not done and gold is bid up on fear.
I think the dollar is coming out of an ICL and if that is true, then we could have a failed cycle. However, the dollar is not acting the way I want at the moment, but not interested in taking gold long. The previous IC had one good daily cycle and the rest of the price action was complete garbage.
Interesting Nada – your right it’s not a time for complacency for sure 🙂
Thanks for the feedback seeing Gary is apparently out on the rocks someplace lol
XIV opens trading (Un-halted) at $10.49;
quickly falls to now $6.37.
All time high $145 on January 8, 2018.
Caveat:
It seems now we have the possibility of a Fed+mega banks collusion to hike interest rates fast and high….which may cause a bond market crash…
It’s political collusion against POTUS.
Can we discount this as traders?
Nah, I don’t think so. Fed doesn’t want to be blamed for crash (e.g. calls to audit them have not gone away) and POTUS could paint as hurting economy. Eventually they’ll raise enough it hurts, but IMO they’ll keep a slow and steady pace unless inflation starts to pinch consumers obviously and enough they squeal to Congress (IMO it’s there, but most haven’t caught on it seems) .
Plus, if we really are in a bubble it will be over so soon it won’t matter what they plan anyway lol.
We may get a bounce somewhere along here obviously, but make no mistake GDX is making a beeline for this neckline. From there its anyone’s guess how this will play out–a bounce before the plummet or maybe we just knife right through(that’s my guess). Ugly.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37941600053&a=576050805&listNum=1
I just picked up some HVI @ 2.15 (Toronto exchange), a Canadian inverse volatility ETF that moves the same as XIV and SVXY. It’s down 83% from yesterday. If the market recovers these inverse volatility ETFs should make a sharp move up.
Don’t think DOW, Nasdaq massacre is over, have a feeling one more mini flush coming.
HVI.TO (inverced VIX) opened at 2.30pm. as of now I’m 87% in loss, $13,944….
https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/images/charts/201802/full-eCrgMpaijs70UjhLTui3T.jpg
Avi Gilbert is saying we will get wave B bounce then crash to wave C. Whatcha think Gary?
I agree, but it is Wave 4 UP which is messy , wave 4s are messy.
Wave 1 down Last Tuesday
Wave 2 up last Weds &Thursday
Wave 3 down Friday, Monday
Wave 4 up now.(sort of mixed, messy)
Note: I never understand what Avi G writes… He is very myopic and microscopic in his approach to EWT…Boring in fact…..90% of the readers get lost half way thru his convoluted articles. And to be sure, he is a horrible writer literally as well! lol.
This is all we needed…Just In: Trump is saying he would love to see a government shutdown if no deal on DACA/Wall.
As if this market needed more worries?
Phew!!! What a ride!!
If they go to war all the way with POTUS, they will shove the bond market off the cliff… it will cause stocks to crash……and nasty effect on economy and Trump will lose mid-term elections in November to Dems BIG TIME.
You see, the Mueller thing, even Dems realize it will not go anywhere or bring Trump down. so now, enter the “going through the fire together” phase of toppling POTUS.
So now, these are the Big Boys: Mega banks & Fed colluding against Trump.
Trump took one of them, Wells Fargo, and executed it in public recently.
Lots of Wells Fargo branches closing around here. He killed one of them already made an example, showing off the cut head to public.
The remnants of Obama Dem Fed elements and Mega banks are thirsty for his blood, to be sure.
IF it goes to war, shortX3 Bonds, short stocks, shortX3 Oil…
go long PMs.
LOL, looks like my wet dream scenario was the low in SPX. .618 retracement *exactly*
Nada,
Have we in fact reached the golden ratio .618 fib line?? Truly?
Well there is always 100% fib line too , right? lol
I suggest you retain your wet dreams for more pleasant things, Sophia the AI robot comes to mind….. LOL.
Close enough for me 🙂 Yes, I am happy for the correction and now lets focus on our epitome of calm.
To be honest the .7860 line looks more appealing , perfect support around that line….May get it in Wave 5 down?
Haha you are right about Avi. Now the big question is this just a DCB on SPY to wave B? Or is it ICL about to rocket launch to new highs? Maybe take some profit along the way to b safe
Wave 4 Up now, Wave 5 down to…who knows….Wave 5s could be nasty.
Retesting 24,100+ is not out of the question?
Damn Lee! Dow is up 500 points suddenly!
UDOW in syrup city baby.
Wave 4 in full swing.
I am long NQ and already 80 points higher; placed a trailing stoploss somewhere in between; sent to Gary for the Challenge but he said options and futures not allowed. I also bought TQQQ at 147.70, now at 152.90.
What a ride indeed ! Hopefully this holds and no pullback, then I could make it to “10k piece of cake” (and no idea how that would be for TQQQ). If we still have a C wave to come as some are warning, well I will exit at a profit at least.
The Dow is climbing along together with Gary:)
Higher Intra-day high in a sudden POUNCE half an hour before closing…
Hmmm where have I seen this before??
Answer: ANY Bull Market since the 90s and on.
The tech stocks are getting all the love.
Joy! My AMZN & FB need some lovin’.
The worst sell off in the miners in about a year. Lots of technical damage done here obviously. Such a fool I have been for holding on to these stocks for such a long time. While I recognize the DCL could come any day now, its what comes after that bounce that scares me.
Unbelievable that commodities are at 50+ year lows while the stock market will be going to unheard of heights shortly. I wonder is there has ever been a point in human history where stocks have achieved valuations like this relative to commodities. To add insult to injury, there is a very real possibility that commodities break down here after going sideways for 20 months.
Wow. Just wow.
LoL. You really think anyone believes you are long miners Ped.
Mission accomplished you prick. Cya.
GOLD taking it on the chin with surging Dow.
So let me get this straight:
Gold goes down, when stocks crash.
Gold goes down, when stocks surge.
Hummm, curious…I will get back at you.
Gary: thank you; you gave me the courage to launch a decent position on NQ, when all news are on crash-mode, and I am already 100 points above entry!! I secured the position and can’t lose. Now comes the most difficult: hang on until 10k or above…
So did everyone (except spanky) buy the dip in the general market? Gary was begging everyone to get in. i sure did. added some to long term account and picked up some short term plays with the Q’s.
@spanky…see here is the difference between me and you..Silver held up like a champ today! We most likely have a short term bottom in PM’s, or maybe one more day. maybe gold down to test 1300… long term everything still looks fine. miners, well there just being Miners…LOL
Like I said it’s the bounce out of the DCL in metals that worries me. I assume the worst of the decline for this DC is likely over. Silver weekly chart could easily break down, and it will get very very ugly. Commodities (GCC) are in the same boat.
i don’t see silver testing last years lows. But who knows. Lots of BOW in major miners so a bounce is due. I agree about how the 2nd DC goes. maybe we push over 1400.
“Like I said it’s the bounce out of the DCL in metals that worries me. I assume the worst of the decline for this DC is likely over. Silver weekly chart could easily break down, and it will get very very ugly. Commodities (GCC) are in the same boat.”
You’re turning this into a self-fulfilling prophecy by being so negative. You need to relax. I’m starting to wonder if sunshine profits sent you here to jinx us.
nice close for tqqq and hqu.to, cdn counterpart of tqqq. Hope fully, players took advantage of the entry point around 2:30 pm today. So, it is mountain climbing competition between nas and Gary.