I love this story from Reminisces of a stock operator. It is so appropriate as the second phase of the gold and silver bull get underway.
“Most let us call’ em customers — are alike. You find very few who can truthfully say that Wall Street doesn’t owe them money. In Fullerton’s there were the usual crowd. All grades!Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man.
Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others.He did not seem very keen to get tips — that is, he never asked the talkers what they’d heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again — when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by.
It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn’t donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.
The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock.They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap’s answer was always the same. The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: “What do you think I ought to do?”Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, “You know, it’s a bull market!”
Time and again I heard him say, “Well, this is a bull market,you know!” as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.
One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning’s story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it. Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, “Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I’ll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you’d better do likewise. That is, if you’ve still got yours.”
Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.”Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!” said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap.”Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip,” said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man.
Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary’s face Elmer went on: “I have just sold every share I owned!” From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares.But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, “No!No! I can’t do that!”: ‘What?” yelled Elmer. “I simply can’t!” said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble.”Didn’t I give you the tip to buy it?””You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you.Indeed, I am, sir. But –” “Hold on! Let me talk! And didn’t that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn’t it?””It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn’t think of selling that stock.”
“You couldn’t?” asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers.”No, I couldn’t.””Why not?” And Elmer drew nearer.”Why, this is a bull market!” The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation.”That’s all right,” said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. “I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you’d better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself.””My dear boy,” said old Partridge, in great distress “my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I’d lose my position; and then where would I be?”
Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get sympathy: “Can you beat it?” he asked me in a stage whisper. “I ask you!”I didn’t say anything. So he went on: “I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He’s got seven points’ profit and I advise him to get out and buy ’em back on the reaction that’s overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He says that if he sells he’ll lose his job. What do you know about that?””I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn’t say I’d lose my job,” cut in old Turkey. “I said I’d lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you’ve been through as many booms and panics as I have, you’ll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don’t feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It’s a bull market, you know.” And he strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.
What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market.The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me
Gary- so, even though the dollar has been positively correlated with the market lately (since it began the int-term rally in Dec), you believe the potential downturn in the dollar will drive asset prices higher? At what point does the long term positive correlation between stocks and the dollar return? Has it returned already?
The problem with that theory is that the dollar would now be on Week 21 of its intermediate cycle, so any decline into a low certainly wouldn’t last long enough to fuel runaway rallies.
Alternatively, the dollar’s intermediate cycle bottomed on Week 16 (a swing low formed the next week), and we are now on Week 5 of a new cycle. Failure of a cycle on Week 5 or 6 would certainly leave plenty of room to run.
I think people are mistakingly thinking the dollar has been strong. If it was really strong we wouldn’t be seeing oil above $80 or gold above $1100 or stocks driving higher, etc.
The dollar only appears strong because the currencies it’s measured against are weak. Measured against anything else and it’s apparent that the dollar really is losing purchasing power.
Realistically it’s not possible to achieve a strong dollar after printing literally trillions of dollars.
When, not if, the dollar decides to resume the secular trend its going to drive asset prices much higher. In the case of stocks everyone would consider that a positive, unfortunately all that liquidity is also going to find it’s way into the commodity markets and drive inflation.
That is the Achilles Heel of Bernake’s plan to just print our way out of our troubles.
Except this cycle could run long just like every cycle has been running long. The last dollar cycle ran 25 weeks. The stock market and gold cycle ran 30 weeks.
While it’s possible we saw an intermediate dollar low 6 weeks ago I don’t like calling a cycle low especially an intermediate cycle that isn’t obvious. That certainly wasn’t obvious 6 weeks ago.
But if you are right and the dollar did make an intermediate low then we could be looking at a potentially very left translated cycle. The fly in the ointment is that it would also suggest very very long stock market and gold cycles for the second time in a row.
If the dollar is on week 6 potentially dropping into week 20 then it would call for a stock/gold cycle that would run 25 to 26 weeks before it would even top.
What’s the big deal with true dollar strength and Euro?
Euro and other currencies, including commodity currencies, are equivalent junk. In fact they have the disadvantage of being less liquid currencies, and not de facto global reserve currency like the USD.
Remember when nickel and other BM’s, and energy, not to mention stocks, were all flying high in 2007 and 2008, much higher than now? Dollar Index was significantly below today.
If you want to talk about strength, then IMO you should only look at USD and S&P or other currencies vis a vis gold to know that gold is where it’s at longterm. (But I learned all that from you!)
I’m trying to say that sentiment towards USD has always been negative throughout the past 5 months when it began to rise. All I every hear or read is that the dollar is worthless, or getting more worthless, and that any strength in it would always be “short-term.”
Global liquidity is dollars. Period.
A renegade (genuine contrarian) views I happen to find interesting say that the markets are in a secular bull and the dollar will rise with it, with gold.
I love this view because I simply can’t find a real world rationale for it…
I feel your macro story is not that important to what stocks or gold does. Just like the macro rationale behind JGB’s tanking in the nineties and 2000’s. They did not.
So what if energy keeps going higher, so long as it doesn’t exceed 2008 highs?
They’re increasing price of gasoline in Dubai and the rest of the UAE, but I don’t think anyone really cares because rents are in a vicious downward spiral, and there are still a few agricommodities out there like rice that are way cheaper than they were more than a year ago…
Actually dollar sentiment is very bullish not withstanding what you “read”.
The 200 DMA has turned up. That means trend followers are now looking to buy dips. They will continue to do so until the secular trend resumes.
I suspect that may happen when the EU actually writes the check to cover Greece. Understandably everyone says they will bail them out but when it comes down to actually writing the check and watching their funds go up in smoke that’s another story altogether. As long as that continues it could prolong the intermediate dollar cycle.
In response to the secular bull market theory, we would have to assume something has happened this time that has never happened any other time in history.
That being a secular bear market ended before human nature ran the full course all the way back to ridiciulously cheap valuations.
We still haven’t approached anything even remotely close to the historical valuations at “all” other secular bear market bottoms.
So in order to buy into the “this time it’s differnet” theory I would have to believe human nature has changed.
Needless to say I don’t 🙂
look at the markets since June 2009, most folk have been waiting for it to fall, instead it continues to climb a wall of worry as will the dollar. Ask yourself this question, do you see the Euro in the 1.40s or 1.20s or below within the next 6 months? The Eur is the biggest component of the dollar index. In my mind the dollar has a twin pillar of support in euro soverign debt problems and an overbought stock market inan environment most fertile for black swans. Add to that the dollar is relatively under priced. JG
Actually I think the only thing holding the dollar up is the EU waffeling about writing the check for Greece. They all talk a good game but it’s now come down to the point where they are actually going to have to put up real money.
Everyone knows they are going to bail out Greece. That’s not even really a question. Everyone also knows once that check is written those funds will disappear down the Greek financial black hole. So understandablly everyone is hesitant. Especially with German elections in May.
Once that check is written though, I think we can expect to see the Euro soar and the dollar tank.
I have to disagree. The Greece is just a symptom, actually Ireland and Portugal are just as bad then you have spain and Italy. I think you are underestimating the problem, it’s not just a question of bailing out Greece and moving on as your response suggest, the problem is with the whole of southern Europe and the UK. The reason for reluctance in bailing out Greece is that this sets a really bad precedent. IF
I don’t mean to suggest the problem is going to stop with Greece. It’s just that the other countries aren’t on the brink of default right now like Greece. Once the check is written there will be a period of calm until the next crisis hits. That could be a year or more away.
In the mean time the US is in basically the same shape as Greece only we are able to print our own currency thus buying ourselves more time.
Ultimately that fact will continue to weigh on the dollar and will in the long run cause the dollar to lose it’s reserve currency status.
No I’m just talking about an intermediate cycle low that is overdue for the dollar. Once something is actually done about Greece I expect the dollar to begin moving strongly down into the intermediate cycle low.
Big selling on strength today: $341MM of SPY.
Mark of a top, Gary?
Who knows. We’ve had multiple SoS days and the market has run over all of them. I can’t get money flow data for the 06/07 period so I don’t know if the runaway move rolled over that tool also.
why do you analyze the dollar in terms of the dollar index when you yourself admit that it’s not a good representation of the dollar? Why does your DX chart even matter at all, given that real assets(stocks, gold, oil, etc) are all moving independently of what the DX and specifically the euro does? All your analysis suggests to me is that the euro is due for some strength vs the dollar based on the DX analysis, not that the true value of the dollar will decline.
Today’s breakout from a consolidation pattern on the dollar’s daily chart projects the DX to near 85 and almost assures that we are NOT in the intermediate cycle that began out of December. That cycle most likely ended 5 weeks ago or last week, as the current week has formed a swing low.
You are correct. The only reason I even bother to look at the dollar is because I believe in order to see a C-wave continuation we need to see the dollar move down into an intermediate cycle low.
Gold can certainly continue to grind higher despite a stronger dollar but I don’t believe we are going to see a parabolic move up in gold unless the dollar is weaknening.
I’m showing the dollar still below 82. It would have to go above 82.24 to break out to new highs??
Check out doc’s blog for the chart on DX.
Perhaps Greece will not be bailed out. Perhaps they will be asked to leave the Euro and go back to their old currency.
That would probably light a fire under the Euro if they could take Greece out of the equation. I know Jim Rogers said as much and that he would be a big buyer of Euros in the event that Greece was allowed to fail.
‘We still haven’t approached anything even remotely close to the historical valuations at “all” other secular bear market bottoms.
So in order to buy into the “this time it’s differnet” theory I would have to believe human nature has changed.’
I think there is a component that is very different this time. The money printing we are witnessing is unprecedented. If it wouldn’t be for exactly this money printing stock valuations would already be rock bottom I believe. Unless this money printing ultimately leads to runaway inflation, perhaps hyperinflation, and to a collapse of the system in three, four years or so, I don’t think there is a chance that we get to the low valuations you are predicting. On a separate note, I know that you do not believe in manipulation and as for PMs you might be right. As for the stock market rally of the past year however, I believe that has been a carefully arranged and rigged rally; banks were give sufficient liquidity to trade their books back into profit. This rally was essential for the US bank system to survive. It think it would be naive to assume that the establishment would have taken that chance.
To the extent that the Fed printed trillions of dollars yes that helped spawn the stock market rally. But the markets are still too big for anyone to manipulate over anything but the short term.
And yes all this liquidity will come back to bite us in the ass and the market will make the full ride back to cheap valuations before this is over.
If you remember it was exactly that same excess liquidity that drove the last bear market collapse because it spiked oil to $147 a barrel.
The end result isn’t going to be any different this time especially since the money printing has reached even higher heights than last time. It just means the collapse when it comes will be all that much worse.
I’m looking at the UUP chart, and it’s not clear to me that the 200 MA has turned up yet. Sideways, yes, but not an uptrend.
Look at the actual dollar chart. $usd on stockcharts.
Good thing I dumped my 50K worth of SLW for break even a few weeks back.
The bull has years to go yet. No need to beat oneself up because of one miss timed trade. Just buy it back.
284 DIA SOS today G man.
The only thing that has ever had any sgnificance is the SPYDER’s and I’m not convinced those will be of any use during a runaway move.
I know, you are buying into the runaway move theme for now. I’m still thinking whoosh down day coming soon.
For a very conservative approach, what would you recommend? Wait for a weekly swing high on the dollar? The dollar has been a tricky indicator to judge these entries. Looking at the mining charts now, it looks like a long consolidation and now the break out is finally happening. I’m in a small position now (15%) and was waiting for our overall market correction.
Anyone else here not in at a high% and if not, what’s your game plan?
Your options are to chase the move if it turns out to be a runaway rally…or you get in now and if the market does correct it’s almost certainly not going to be the end of the bull so any correction should be brief.
If you are able to hold thru a drawdown you can just enter and not worry about missing any of the move.
If you aren’t able to hold through a drawdown then you will have to chase if the runaway move develops and most likely you will enter at a short term top and suffer a drawdown of some sort anyway.
Trying to time perfect entries is probably one of the single most costly strategies most retail traders get sucked into.
No kidding…I had a 75% position built mostly in early Jan (these are still red) and some in Feb. Sold off most based on your D wave call, now have jitters to jump now based on what happened back in Jan. I know this correction shouldn’t be as deep, if it does indeed come. I’ll figure out my strategy this weekend.
Thanks for your feedback. Tricky year with the PM trade. I believe in the long term fundamentals on the trade, so I should just buy and hold a bigger%
That strategy would eliminate needless losses 🙂
Took some profits on the ones entered in Feb, letting the losers ride until the bull corrects them.
To buy or not to buy… That is the question. All day today I kept hearing my mom’s voice in my head saying, “well Jesus, I DON’T KNOW!!”
Anon, too bad about your mom.
Jay, I’m in the same boat as you as far as indecision – the dollar is not terribly cooperative right now. I sold most of my miners last year just before the peak (as Gary was lightening up) and was waiting for a bigger pullback than we got. Needless to say, the market is considerably stronger/crazier than I planned 🙂
What bugs me is that just as gold started collapsing before the market, so it is weaker now. It seems that if it was leading, it should be STRONGER than the market. I believe Gary’s argument has been that gold has held up well against the dollar but if one includes the market in the analysis, one sees that the market has been even stronger against the dollar. Either way you cut it, gold has been the weaker of the two and remains so.
Given that, and given a higher low in the dollar last week, I am hesitant. Add to this the extreme insanity in the market and I become very reluctant indeed. It’s screaming for a correction.
That said, there are quite a few cheap miners out there relative to last year’s peak. Can’t hurt to buy some of them…
Gary, what was your rule about how many Xs in a row on the P&F chart on stockcharts.com lead to some kind of collapese? Well I just looked at the RUT. WOW!
To clarify, I was looking at the RUT weekly.
The Russell only has 7 X’s ion a row. Hardly overbought.
Folks if this turns into a runaway move the biggest mistake anyone can make is trying to make it conform to any normal standard. It won’t do it.
BTW the Russell has a possible T1 pattern targeting 800.
And the dollar is in the middle of a 1-2-3 reversal, complete with a big ugly reversal candle right where the #2 test would occur.
“The dollar only appears strong because the currencies it’s measured against are weak. Measured against anything else and it’s apparent that the dollar really is losing purchasing power.”
What’s your point? The dollar index CONSISTS of the value of the dollar against those other currencies. The dollar will continue to lose purchasing power with the dollar index going up as other currencies lose purchasing power at a faster rate.
“When, not if, the dollar decides to resume the secular trend its going to drive asset prices much higher.”
Trend against what? The euro is more than half of the dollar index, and its troubles have just started to become known (and believed) by the public. The euro is simply not viable long term without a much stronger political union, and it is more likely to fall to parity with the dollar (pushing the dollar index back above 100) than it is to climb back to 1.60.
The secular trend is down for the dollar and has been since 2001. If Greece leaves the EU I think you would see the Euro strengthen immediately.
The fact is the dollar has been losing purchasing power for 9 years. And even though it has been rising since Dec. against other currencies its still losing purchasing power against real stuff.
It simply isn’t possible to print trillions of dollars out of thin air and have a strong currency. The world doesn’t work that way.
Magic only works in fairly tales.
And your explanation for the Yen is….?
I’m not sure what you are asking me???
Japan has begun QE just like everyone else and that of course is destroying the Yen.
Gold, oil and most commodites have been rising sharply since 2000. A pretty good indication that Japan has been present at the money printing party along with everyone else.
You have 50% in juniors and 50% in silver miners. If my math is rigth, you are fully invested, right?
Your math is right
If you anticipate dollar is in 1-2-3 reversal then the trade could be take when 3 occurs and that should give confirmation and plenty of time for trend to be followed.
Why jump in at the anticipation? I thought you learned a lesson pretty well in January on miners.
I don’t care where gold is at this time. If it’s an A wave I’ll just hold till the next C-wave arrives.
But if one is worried about a draw down they could certainly wait although like I pointed out in the weekend report it seems fairly certain gold just put in a daily cycle low and the best time to enter is as close to one of those lows as possible.
“Once that check is written though, I think we can expect to see the Euro soar and the dollar tank.”
I disagree completely and strongly. The Euro’s problems have just started to gain attention (Portugal is in almost as bad shape – even though the have less government debt that Greece, the level of private debt in Portugal is MUCH higher than Greece’s).
Even more important, the bailout of Greece sends a huge signal to the other Euro weaklings that they can expect help, too (moral hazard at its worst). Kicking Greece out of the euro (likely no legal way to do that) would have probably been the best thing for the euro (longer term), but now, Germany might be the country to leave the Eurozone, to get away the money printing in the rest Europe.
“The fact is the dollar has been losing purchasing power for 9 years.”
The dollar has been losing purchasing power for 97 years (since the Federal Reserve was formed). That is completely independent of its relative value against other currencies, which can go both up and down. Its true purchasing power only goes down.
I have no idea why you keep citing DXY as a measure of its purchasing power. DXY will continue to rise for quite a while, as its main components (euro, yen, pound) have even more problems than the dollar.
Since you are 100% invested, you must not be worried about the correction in the stk mkt that may bring down pm. Also normally, investors usually reserve some cash or bullets. Unless you are planning to go on margin or you are like buffett having cash coming in from the wazoo, you will be sitting tight in this downturn if it happens.
I just don’t plan to trade my positions, correction or not.
It is a bull market after all and any correction will ultimately be reversed so I’m not really concerned with whether or not the stock market corrects although I think that possibility is probably off the table.
Let’s face it we’ve had three chances to “sell the news” none of them worked.
Greece is on the verge of defaulting. The stock market hasn’t even blinked.
The dollar has rallied strongly. The market could care less.
Sentiment has reached bullish extremes rarely seen. Nothing!
The daily cycle appears to have bottomed on Monday. That would suggest we have another two months before we can expect the next major low.
Hey when the market doesn’t do what it’s supposed to do then I take it as a sign that something significant has happened.
The best answer I can come up with is that we are now locked in a runaway advance and everything else is irrelevant.
sad to see gary n doc both running behind subscription model..gary also incresed his rates to 200 now and doc started new service…especially when both have medicore track record of success..just posting daily on blogs doesn’t make one competent
Sorry to say but just being a critic doesn’t give one any credibility at all.
What you fail to mention was a buy in April of last year and hold till late Nov. Not too bad I would say.
You also fail to mention that I bought in Jan. at roughly 440 on the HUI. Then exited in March between 430-420 because I wasn’t sure if this was a D-wave that would continue.
Now I’m re-entering between 450-430.
Not perfect but certainly nothing to freak out about.
Gary..i m not against you earning money from subscribers but after seeing your marketing efforts and increase in rates, i fear you would lose your focus on true investment advice and your core competency which is basically a long term picture…I would strongly protest such commercialization cos true investment advice (which does not involve any flashy charts/posts/thoughts aka noise) and subscription model rarely goes hand in hand..if someone is confident in his/her long term analysis why run behind monthly perks..unless n until you really want to run a business out of a blog…and i believe even ppl commenting on blog many times give something useful (though not on daily basis) at free as such to speak of…there are many newsletters in industry e.g. Dennis Gartman with flashy language and appearance which charges like 400 bucks per month but apart from information if you try to convert it into trade..its not worth 4 bucks…i mean a true advisor needs to think beyond number of subscribers..ultimately seems no one is sure of their ability to earn money in markets and just want to extract something from poor fellows aka subscribers as much as they can…so that if their advice goes wrong at least they will have this subscription money to survive on…only Gentleman i have seen in industry in Marc Faber who donates his subscription money completely to help some organization and not uses it as his pocket money…
Heres what I know to be true. No one and I mean no one is going to be right in their calls more than about 60% of the time. So for the most part I think it’s probably a waste to spend $1000 for any investment newsletter. Just because one charges an outlandish fee doesn’t mean they are going to hit the nail on the head any more often than the guy that charges a more reasonable sum.
Here is my guiding philosophy.
I think gold is in a secular bull market. Until that ends I will have only two positions in the market. Either long precious metals/miners or in cash.
I will always try to exit and go to cash if I think a D-wave is impending.
I will not trade positions with stops as stops can and often do incur unnecessary losses that don’t need to be taken in a bull market.
If I mistime an entry then I will just hold until the bull corrects my error.
If investors believe in those conditions and believe that I can help them stay on that path then buy a subscription. My price is considerably cheaper than almost every other newsletter.
I don’t make any ridiculous claims that a subscription will allow you to “trade your way to riches”.
Anyone who has been in this game for any period of time knows that just ain’t going to happen.
This is a tough business. Probably the toughest. If you want to make a living you can do so by trading if you start with a large enough stake and use perfect risk control.
If you want to get rich (figuratively speaking) then you need to invest in a secular bull market. That’s what I’m doing. With the one condition that I want to attempt to trade my way around a D-wave.
So there you have it, right up front. If you are a trader don’t waste your money on an SMT subscription. Even though I do monitor sentiment, cycles and technicals for traders, without excellent risk control all of that will be worthless. Ultimately every timing tool fails from time to time.
If you want to ride the bull then the SMT will help you do so.
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