I noted in yesterday’s daily update that we should be nearing not only a daily cycle low but an intermediate cycle low any day now. (the February intermediate bottom came on a reversal off the jobs report. Guess what’s coming on Friday?).

Not only that but sentiment is again back to bearish extremes. We are even starting to see the haters & trolls appear again on the blog (generally a pretty good sign of an impending bottom), although not as much because gold and miners have for the most part completely decoupled from the stock market.

Not withstanding all of that the market is now just about as oversold as it was in March of `09. There are only 27 stocks in the S&P trading above their 50 DMA.

You can see from the chart these kind of oversold levels always  spawn some kind of bounce and often bear market rallies begin out of these kind of oversold levels.

Considering how late we are in the intermediate cycle the market is due to put in an intermediate level bottom at any time.

Now just isn’t the time to get brave and press the short side. Much safer to just let that trade slide on by than risk getting caught in an explosive bear market rally or a continuation of the cyclical bull which ever the case may be.


  1. Anonymous

    I couldn’t help but notice that the 3 month T-Bill yield closed at a new high today. And what a sharp reversal that was. Why would interest rates be going up? Perhaps we’re beginning to see some light. As you can see in the chart I’ve attached, the 1 Year Treasury yields are starting to reverse too. To a lesser extent, 2 years are following. This should continue down the line to the 10 and 30s. Money will start flowing out of those and back into risk assets.$IRX&p=D&yr=0&…

  2. md

    This is your comment from previous post “The next thing I would need to see before I would be willing to call another leg down in the secular bear would be a Dow Theory sell signal. In order for that to happen both the industrials and the transports would need to break below a secondary low point. I think we just put in that low a few weeks ago. So if the Dow were to close back below the June 8th low of 9939 and it was confirmed by the transports closing below 4089 then I would have to say it’s time to hunker down bad times are a comin’. (They are surely coming eventually – we are just trying to get the timing right.) “

    If we are back to bear ‘cos it looks like Dow Theory sell signal in effect, then surely long term you should be short here…and looking to ADD on any rally

  3. Gary

    That little 8 day bounce was way too small IMO to indicate that we have a secondary low yet. We need to see something like the bounce out of the March 08 low.

    I’m pretty sure we are still trying to put in the secondary low point. Once we get it and the market bounces out of it then we can watch that low for a violation by both averages. If that happens then we will have a Dow theory sell signal.

    I would have to be an idiot to fight with a bear market when there is still a bull market to invest in.

    Just look at what you are up against.

    The second greatest bear market in history only dropped 58% over a year and a half period. Miners have rallied 250% in a year and a half.

    Playing bear markets requires years & years of experience to do successfully and even then you need a huge dose of luck.

    The Fed is going to fight the bear with everything they have. There will be another round(s)of QE. There will be bans on short selling. Who knows what all will be thrown at the bear. I guarantee these things will come out of the blue, probably premarket, trapping shorts on the wrong side of the market.

    There will be plenty of explosive bear market rallies.

    Why in the world would I voluntarily subject myself to that?

    Fighting with a bear market is a last resort, nothing else is working, strategy (even then 95% of investors would be better of in the long run just going to cash).

    If there is a bull market somewhere to invest in it’s just a no brainer. Never in a million years would I choose to put myself through the wringer of trying to trade a bear market for small profits (if I could even manage to make a profit) when I could just take a position in a bull market, use an Old Turkey strategy, and let the bull make me rich.

  4. Anonymous

    IMO you should stick to your metal thing. YOU really have no crystal ball and YOU really have no clue otherwise. You keep saying the same thing over and over. And people actually donate for this.

  5. Anonymous

    Since ‘anon’ above sees no value here, perhaps he should quit visiting, and certainly commenting.

    What an idiot, and clearly loaded up short or too afraid to take the trade he sees!

  6. Anonymous

    I can’t say for anyone else but the reason I “donate” is because Gary keeps me focused on the big picture in gold.

    Like he’s said for a while now, you would have to be an idiot to trade the stock market…maybe the anon is that idiot 🙂

  7. Anonymous

    ANON above.

    Word of the day “IDIOT”.

    We will see soon when gold is down $100 in a day. HAHA

  8. Anonymous

    When gold is down $100 in a day, I’ll still be profitable and looking to add.

    No joking.

  9. Gary

    Gold was down $185 in February. Did it make any difference to the bull market?

    Some people just can’t seem to learn anything from history 🙂

  10. Anonymous

    The trolls are out in force. We should be days if not hours away from a bottom.

  11. Anonymous

    “The trolls are out in force. We should be days if not hours away from a bottom.”

    Yep, and meaner than ever! Although I like the probability of gold going higher better than stocks rising (I’m only long gold), I smell capitulation all over these whiny equity bears. 🙂

    Additionally, it appears they cannot read, as Gary has stated MANY times that his observations about on stocks are only that, and not a trade he’d take.

  12. Anonymous

    The dollar is currently breaking below the 50 DMA. Perhaps the crawl Gary noted is already breaking down?

  13. Anonymous

    How do you figure?
    Attlia fought the cyclical bull for months losing massive amounts of money for his followers.

    Gary has been saying all along to stay on board the one remianing bull market and he’s been absolutely right for months and months. Heck he even got out just before the Dec. top. Granted he entered again a little too early but like he says the bull will eventually correct any timing mistakes.

    I’ve got to say of all the blogs I’ve read Gary is the only one making consistent money for his followers.

  14. Basil

    Overall I like the blog. Nevertheless, I haven’t seen the miners make new highs, or silver make new highs. If the stock market re-visits the lows of last year or even drops beyond, gold might hold up somewhat for various reasons, but silver and the miners will be affected negatively. I think it comes down to whether you believe we’ll be ultimately stay above last years stock market levels or not. I see the decoupling that Gary talks about. In my book the miners crashed in 2008 beyond what any bug thought was possible and they still haven’t recovered, for the most part. Silver is lagging behind and has not yet in any way fulfilled expectations to the upside, including mine. I am still holding my physical silver and gold, since 2005, and hope all the PM bugs will be right, but I see other currents making that difficult for the time being. I also don’t buy into the money printing will kill deflation theory. I’ve heard it a thousand times including here, that doesn’t make it any more convincing. What I see is all major world stock markets having already made a death-cross or are about to make it. For me that reads trouble ahead. If I say this blog starts to read like xtrenders a year ago, I mean that dogmatism and narrow sight pays off as long as it does and it won’t when it won’t.

  15. thedocument

    The SPX is approaching the 75-week moving average this morning, so I’d say we are getting close price-wise, as well. My daily cycle interpretation differs from yours, though, Gary. I see us on Day 26 today. However, there’s no rule that says this cycle couldn’t end early if we get a panic.

  16. Gary

    It seems like you are just a bit impatient. Just twiddle your thumbs eventually silver and miners will kick in gear.

    At the moment miners are trying to get through a major resistance level in the face of a severe stock market decline. The same for silver. Once the selling rpessure is released they will be setup to break through that resistance.

  17. Basil

    I meant to say ” I don’t see the decoupling that Gary is talking about “. Not yet.

  18. Gary

    Hmm I had not noticed the 75 MA previously. It certainly has acted as strong support or resistance. Nice catch Doc.

  19. Gary

    My gosh gold is just moving down into a cycle low just like I said to expect. It happens about every 20-30 days.

    You have freaked out at every one of these. At what point do you learn your lesson and use these dips to accumulate?

    It is a bull market after all.

  20. Gary

    All that is happening is we are moving into a final intermediate cycle low and the selling pressure is starting to affect everything just like it always does at these major cycle lows because of margin calls.

    Once the low is in and the selling pressure is removed the crashing dollar will drive the next leg of the C-wave in gold.

  21. Anonymous

    I can’t speak for anybody else, but I’d like to see this weakness carry into tomorrow morning (gap down) to add to my positions. Would even look to get some of Soros and Paulson’s NG.

    Otherwise, I’ll just stick with the gold physical etfs.

  22. Anonymous1

    Well Gary –

    I might be a prick, but a few months ago you were smug enough to throw out the line –

    “you hold your cash and gold, and i’ll hold my gold and commodity stocks and we will see who goes broke first”

    How those commodity stocks working out for you in this “massive liquidity sloshing around”????

    nuff said

    Gold and Physical Cash folks……

  23. Gary

    I have no doubt we will eventually go below that level at some point. So if shorts want to hold for however long it takes they could rack up a 40% gain give or take. But in the mean time gold and miners will probably soar many times that amount.

    Personally I would rather go with the larger profit potential.

    Shorts need to take note of the extreme traffic happening right now. This has happend at every intermediate cycle low.

  24. Gary

    Anon1 do you really want to go there … again. Gold and miners are only slightly off their all time highs.

    Sheesh some people are just unable to learn their lesson.

    Gold is just moving into a daily cycle low driven by the selling pressure coming from the stock market. Do you correct your mistake from the last time and buy the dip or do you make the same mistake again? and again and again!

  25. Anonymous1

    Im not talking miners……

    I’m just holding you accountable from your commodity stocks – like grains and crap you were referring to.

    i don’t mind debate, it’s when someone is cocky while being dogmatic. You called me out, you lost.

    Gold and cash has whupped your all in gold, miners, grains, etc call.

    Something tells me your ego won’t let you admit that though.

  26. Gary

    I’ve never bought or advised anyone to by anything other than miners??? Gold is the only bull market left. Why would I buy something that isn’t in a bull market?

    I think you have your facts wrong.

  27. Anonymous

    Gary is correct. I’m a subscriber and he’s been very clear gold and miners only.

  28. Anonymous

    I second that I’ve watched his weekly updates for months and the only thing in his portfolio for months and months has been miners or metal ETF’s.

  29. Anonymous

    Of course this dummy, anon1 chooses to use this exact point in time to try an make his point, after obiously harboring resentment for many months. LOL!! What a putz!

    Anon1 belongs over at “magic Timmy Knight’s” site where he managed yet again to tell readers (after the fact) he was massively short into today. Flip-flops positions like a teenage girl at the mall, but at least he’s back to hating gold! 🙂

  30. Gary

    Why would I want to get out when gold is now on day 28 and the daily cycle rarely lasts longer than 28 days. Not to mention the dollar is crashing.

    One would have to be nuts to sell now. Now is the buying opportunity we’ve been looking for and the fundamental picture is setting up just like expected.

  31. Anonymous1

    Not in these forums.

    During our debates – he was talking about buying commodities.

    He was liking the grains in the forums. I am not a subscriber – so don’t know what he writes about.

    The debate was that the Bennie has “$12 trillion sloshing around” which I showed him was off by $10 trillion, and I said cash and gold, in which he mocked me for owning cash. Said I would go broke.

    He lost the challenge – and I’m sure all his minions will come out in defense of him, but facts are facts.

  32. Anonymous1

    8:37 Anon

    Look dork (since we are allowed to call names as you just did)

    I have said cash and gold for months….. and been there. Go back and read the posts…… nothing changed. Not flopping around.

    Facts are facts.

    I just come on here once in awhile when things are bad to see all the whining that goes on. When everyone is scared and wetting themselves hoping Gary will make everything right, I buy more Gold.

  33. Anonymous

    Just checking in early today b/c my active trader buddy told me gold is crashing. I won’t see you guys until next Tuesday’s close, so wanted to pop in. Obviously not a good day, but thanks to Gary I’m still up 25.4% right now. I don’t own miners yet, but will consider them or more DGP next week.

    Take care and good luck!

  34. Gary

    Anyone who has read this forum for any lenght of time would know I never mocked anyone form holding gold. So that isn’t even a question.

    To think that I would mock someone for holding cash is just about as ridiculous. Holding cash just means you are nervous about future direction and worriewd about a drawdown. Why would I mock you for being nervous and playing it safe?

  35. Gary

    Certainly anytime is a good time to buy silver. It has a long way to go before this bull is over.

    I can’t tell you whether or not you will suffer a short term draw down though.

  36. Anonymous

    “Look dork (since we are allowed to call names as you just did)…I just come on here once in awhile when things are bad to see all the whining that goes on”-anon1

    Not only are you the only one whining,but your massive inferiority complex is on display every time you open your trap. 🙂

  37. Anonymous

    Why is silver moving so slowly compared to gold? I thought they’re correlated, no?

  38. Gary

    Silver’s big moves occur as a C-wave tops. Once that happens you will be richely rewarded for holding your silver. Just be patient.

  39. Anonymous1

    “Not only are you the only one whining,but your massive inferiority complex is on display every time you open your trap. :)” – 8:47 anon

    pffffft (chuckling)

    oooooooo k?????

    – good one – i guess

    puerile if you ask me

  40. Anonymous

    LOL and once the market rallies Timmey will claim to have gotten out right at the bottom too.

    Of course it will be after the fact. Like I said the other day any one dumb enough to let this guy manage their money deserves to lose it.

  41. Anonymous


    You have it all wrong. I’ve never seen Gary mock anyone, nor advocate holding anything but precious metals. I have seen him suggest being in cash if one is to nervous about drawdowns.

    You’re the only one mocking anyone on this site… you bring your vitriol and insecurity here and pretend you’re having a debate.

  42. Anonymous

    I’m going to dump my silver tomorrow. What a useless investment. Held it for 6 months and it hasn’t awarded me anything except mental anguish.

  43. Anonymous

    Dawler Guy here….
    I guess there is really nothing to say at this point…yall know most of my positions…looks like a hornets nest has been stirred up here…

    Later fellers…

    D G out…

  44. Anonymous

    We’ll see if you cover at the right time to actually make any money. BTW your long dollar trade is sucking up any profits you might be making from shorting gold.

  45. Anonymous

    [email protected]:10 is a mental weakling, cheering harder for others to lose than focusing on his own trading. He’s not even short gold, but gets off trying to drag others down.

  46. Anonymous

    It’s starting to look like our gov’t is going to announce an austerity plan tomorrow! LOL!

  47. Anonymous

    I have been out of my dawler trade for qiute some time…my shart stox position blows everything out of water…pay attention…

    D G out…

  48. Anonymous


    Looks like your HUI prediction of never to trade below 450 is toast.
    Crystal ball not working too well.

  49. Gary

    Pay attention to wahts going on here folks. 66 comments and the markets only been open 3 hours. This is what we saw at the Feb. bottom too.

  50. Gary

    Hey the day isn’t over yet 🙂

    But it’s still meaningless before this bull is over the HUI will be up many multiples of where it is today. I’m not concerned with today since I have no intention of selling until we see a C-wave top.

    So far I’ve seen nothing that suggests we’ve seen that yet.

  51. Anonymous

    Not to mention DG has his losers/stopouts on his biggest positions…recipe for disaster.

  52. Anonymous

    ANON 9:33

    Why don’t you give it a break…I’m only out 1.50 on the trade…thats nothing my friend…to bad you have all your life savings in gold related products…reel smart there…
    You need to grow the hell up and stop bashing everyone and everything that is not YOUR view or position…
    Lets compare p&l’s my friend…

    D G out…

  53. Basil

    that’s what they said after two weeks of rally in March 09 on the xtrenders website. They believed that the rise in traffic and the rise in the numbers of unfriendly comments meant that the rally was over and that it’s a signal for a market turn. It never happened.

  54. Anonymous

    I guess you don’t remember I was back shorting gold in the 1240-45 area earlier this week to re-establish a SHORT…
    You obviously only read your own comments…

    D G out…

  55. Anonymous

    LOL I’ve been holding gold and silver since 03. DG you can’t even begin to touch my P/L statement.

  56. Anonymous

    The intraday action isn’t looking so good for you shorts.

    My bet is Gary will be right again and the market will put in an intermediate low and all the shorts will fail to cover in time and have to watch all their profits evaporate.

  57. Anonymous

    Lively day so far. All of this name calling and I-told-you-so back-and-forth makes for an illuminating discussion.

  58. Anonymous

    People reading this blog…..may I have your attention please….
    We now have confirmation Uncle Warren has now owned gold since 2003…

  59. Anonymous

    “Let’s compare P+L’s”- DG

    LOL! Here’s a question, how come you have never come here and told us when you were adding to a winning position? You like to keep that better cost average to gloat, rather than step up size into a winner. Only time you add around here is when you’re wrong, in an attempt to eventually prove you were right.

    You don’t have to show me you P+L. I’ve got a good idea what it looks like overall.

  60. Anonymous


    Pull up a one-year chart of SLW. It’s a long, steady rise, punctuated by the sharp corrections that are par for the course with precious metals. What are you complaining about? A one-week drawdown? It sounds like you’re voicing your own anxiety, but don’t project that onto others.

    The PM’s have barely budged in this decline. I never would have thought there’d be this much whining with gold over $1200.

    I think that if you’re impatient, you should just sell all your PM’s and just walk away. Just don’t complain when you have to buy back in at higher prices… and then find yourself selling at a loss during the drawdown that follows.

  61. Gary

    Do you think this is the end of the gold bull? If not then what difference does it make that gold corrects? It is just a correction in a bull market after all.

    Those who hold their position won’t even be able to determine where this correction occured on a long term chart once the bull is finished.

    Let’s face it a $65 dollar correction is pretty meaningless if you ride the bull to $5000.

    I think you are thinking way too short term. A better use of your time would be to scale in during the correction so you can actually make money during the bull.

  62. Moe Rann


    I should have sold on Friday as my instincts were telling me. I could be buying back here.

    Wassupppwiddit !!!

    There is a reason why they called Old Turkey a “Turkey”. 😉

    I sure hope you are right about this intermediate cycle low being formed…


  63. Basil

    Anonymous 10:15,
    neither am I whining nor am I complaining. I’m simply stating the facts. I don’t need to pull up the SLW chart, I know it. If you go 1.5 years back, yes you’re right, it looks great. If you pull up a 2 year chart, not so great, does it? Narrow sighted folks like you were blowing the same trumpet in 08 before SLW crashed from 20 to 2.5. And if I look at the bulk of the charts of miners SLW currently stands out as one of the very few better ones. Many of them look rather crappy. And it’s not called anxiety, it’s called common sense, and if you want to block out all but mindless bullishness, be my guest. Also, don’t tell me what to do with my physical PMs; if I need anybody’s advice, then certainly not yours. Dumb ass.

  64. Daniel

    I am with you on the PM bull and this is a small hiccup longer term– (tiny hiccup)
    I do find it surprising it is happening while the dollar is having a very bad day.
    Do you make anything (worth mentioning) out of this development?

  65. Gary

    Gold is just finally succumbing to the pull of an intermediate cycle low. But the dollart is setting up the fundamental driver for the next leg up in this C-wave.

    If you can just go on vacation for a year or so the bull will make you a very rich man. If you constantly worry about trying to time every wiggle you will make nothing.

    You just have to ask yourself if the end result is worth the price you have to pay to get there.

    Asa I’ve said many times in the past if you are one of those people that constantly checks their account and freaks out on every draw down then just go to an all physical portfolio. I guarnatee you will weather draw downs with no sweat if you are just holding physical.

  66. Anonymous

    The forum is just like Feb. that settles it for me it’s time to start backing up the truck. We have to be days if not hours away from a bottom. I’m just waiting for cavity boy to show up as the final tell 🙂

  67. Anonymous

    Yeah you would think these fleas would learn their lesson after looking so foolish in Feb. but I guess not.

    Just get ready to stick your foot in your mouth again. In the mean time I’m going to be loading up on this half price sale.

  68. Keys

    As I mentioned before.

    Gold can go down $300 for all I care. I mentioned it before, but if you don’t believe in the final product don’t invest. Drink beer and enjoy life, or don’t invest and have a beer. I learned the hard way as well!! Upper chin gents, the gold bull is a monster that wants to kick the living crap out of anybody that wants to get on. Those that are barely holding on now; it will only get worse. I doubt the bull is done kicking. That is how gold is. You CANNOT trade gold for a long period of time and make money, and if anybody has made money it is no where close to simply buying and holding. Again I learned the hard way too!

  69. Gary

    Couldn’t have said it better myself. If you can keep your eye on the big picture then you will make a fortune during this bull. If you are constantly trying to avoid draw downs do yourself a favor and just buy treasuries.

    You just can’t ride the bull that way.

    Just go on vacation and come back this fall when the second leg of the C-wave is roaring higher.

  70. Anonymous

    Sheesh miners are 10% off the highs and people are freaking out. If you can’t weather a measly 10% correction you have no business in the stock market and certainly not in the precious metals sector.

  71. Anonymous

    OI! Enough of the Dawler Guy bashing! He comes on board and shares his opinions in an open and entertaining way, I’ve not seen him bad mouth or bash anyone without provacation so give the guy a break. Many of us actually enjoy his daily interludes. Keep strong DG and keep us posted on your lawngs and sharts.

  72. Anonymous

    Weren’t you saying the same thing in February? Are you sure you want to risk sticking your foot in your mouth again?

  73. Anonymous

    Hey Gary,

    In your opinion is it worth adding to positions (gold, silver, miners) or do you see a decent amount of downside…I know Old Turkey 🙂

    Just wondering how you see things playing out.

  74. Anonymous

    Have you seen a 10 year chart of gold. If we freak out over this “nothing occurance” today, and follow little lines, there is no way we will be able to hold through the bull. Deflation fears again…really…with our USD pegged to Ben’s printing presses do you really see that happening…More money will flood the system evenutally at the mere notion of deflation…I hope it does come…cheaper prices for awhile, I may buy back into oil as a trade if we hit $35 again.

    …I think we should all go back to feb and re-read the blog. It’s the same stuff….

    Gents, you really need to buy into the big picture or not. If you don’t believe in the big picture you WILL not be able to keep your positions, you might as well sell now and cut your losses because you will perpetually buy at tops and sell at bottoms.

    Further if you sell gold and pms where do you put your money..almost every currency out there is suspect.

    Anyways I have to go enjoy the sun and mow the lawn.

  75. Gary

    Well gold is so late in the daily cycle that we could get a bottom anytine now. The question is whether the next daily cycle will fail and gold has further to go into a deeper intermediate low.

    Of course we could also just see an extended daily cycle that puts the finishing touches on the intermediate cycle.

    It is the end of the 21st week and the gold cycle rarely runs longer than 18-20 weeks. We could conceivably see another down week next week which would take us into the 22 week and a final intermediate bottom.

  76. Anonymous



    DOWN $50 now

    50 to go. Friday will be the other fity.


    No help from bucky. What say you all powerful one?

  77. Anonymous

    I’ll also be a buyer once the selling pressure subsides. Looks like this might go on a few more days, but buyers will be rewarded.

  78. Gary

    Yes we would need at least a swing low before gold has put in it’s daily cycle low so there’s no need to try and pick the bottom unless you believe in the bull, don’t care about drawdowns, and just want to take a stab at trying to catch the exact bottom.

  79. Anonymous


    “Narrow sighted folks like you were blowing the same trumpet in 08 before SLW crashed from 20 to 2.5. “

    Actually, narrow-sighted folks like me were buying SLW at 2.5 as well. I also owned it back when it was called Wheaton River. Do you remember that? I doubt it. It was a long time and many thousands of percentage points ago. That’s how narrow-sighted I am.

    Gold is down a whopping %5. %5 drawdowns are regular occurrences in PM’s. Even the 30% drawdown in 2008 was little more than a hiccup in the bull market, and we’re a long way from down %30 so far.

    It’s OK to be nervous. But don’t stigmatize those who have a differing opinion from you as mindless permabulls. There will be a time to sell them and never look back, but that time has not yet come.

  80. Anonymous

    Well, today cuts into profits, but I remain unshaken in my belief of the bull market. I expect more turbulence ST, but will be buying more gold at some point in the next week, if not nibbling just a bit tomorrow.

    If we should get a sharp down open (gold), I’ll buy with impunity.

  81. aviat72

    Reasons for the sell-off:

    (1) Euro pop meant that the short-Euro and long-Gold trade unwound.

    (2) Deflationary pressures in the economy as specified by the Prices Paid Component of the ISM.

    (3) Too many people trapped in the fake breakouts; a lot of hedge funds loaded to the gills in Gold selling as other risk assets tumbled.

    My hope is that we retest the 150 day SMA, the definite line of support for Gold, before the next leg up.

  82. Anonymous

    It may be the oversold levels in the Euro. That was a tough one if holding PMs in euros. Just add another 2.38% to your losses.

    Listening to traders say sell on CNBC..beautiful….this is great for the long-term bull. As traders leave, and we test support, and gain investors, all this does is extend the bull longer….the bull will frustrate the short-term gain guy by giving his money to the long-term guy.

    I figure another $100 drop or a test of $1000 will pretty much kick all the traders out. $999 gold and we will most likely get a massive launch to $1350-1400 before year-end. Let’s just hope this sling shot happens real fast and dirty. For sport only, I am going to guess that as much as we fall below 1200…we will sling shot that double in this round. so a drop to 1100 becomes 1300. a drop to 1000 becomes 1400.

    Still no blood on the street boys, we are still headed down! But the posts are increasing.

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