Gold is now due for a corrective move. Its rallied 15 out of the last 17 days and is now moving into the timing band for a cycle low. My best guess was that gold might make it to around $1240 before that corrective move began. Today was pretty close.

If stocks have one more leg down before the final daily cycle bottom then a move down by gold at the same time does make for a tidy little theory.
More in the nightly updates.

57 thoughts on “CLOSE ENOUGH?

  1. Keys

    Gary you keep those of us value investors on track for the big picture. DG is a short-term trader that makes money off a day trade or a system trade. I suck at trading, but that 12% gain off your bottom sure made sense to me. I have all the knowledge in the world to understand when something is too stupid and invest likewise.

    Frankly you keep the big picture people like myself in line, but allow us tempted humans to trade sometimes. I sold 10% of my levered position and am waiting to add it back when the time comes. I don’t play games, except with my margin portion (I get so bored playing old turkey). Anyways, I know I was happy with Gary’s call at the bottom. I sold at a 12% gain in one month. The margin portion is mine…I took the wife out and we had a great time, still plenty to spend, like new car spend. Either way, although day trader may not be your thing, I think your cycles are brilliant. I will continue to enjoy the evenings out with the wife when you are correct and when you are wrong old turkey. Very simply for me.

    Anyways….look forward to the next call.

  2. Anonymous

    How large of a profit taking move down in gold are you expecting Gary? I know it’s hard to put a number on it. Just curious at any guess. I have also been waiting patiently for this.

  3. Gary

    Gary-Uk here.

    Good to see Gary has nailed it again, so many posts about dollar falling, equities rising.

    Just watch how wrong he will be (as usual) as the SPY tumbles below 1000 over the next few weeks. And the dollar up nicely overnight, a nice dollar squeeze is already starting.

    Please don’t believe his cycles nonsense folks, fundamentals play a part too, and equities can’t defy gravity for ever.

    I see he’s also (as usual) hedging his bets with gold, so if it plunges as paper gold gets sold, he’ll have a post saying ‘daily cycle low’ or some other bull.

  4. Anonymous

    Troll Gary,
    Just face the facts the G-train has been right ttime after time and he’s making money. You on the other hand have consistently been wrong and your put options have decimated your account.

  5. Gary

    There are still potentially 9 days left in the daily cycle. If the Dow and the transports both break below the July low then I will be happy to call the bear market.

    It’s late enough in the daily cycle though that selling the break probably will incur a drawdown as the market bounces out of that low.

    But either way there is just no need to to rush to get short until one has confirmation of the bear.

    And even then why would anyone want to waste time trying to make little profits on the short side?

    We’ve already seen how tough it is to do. Do you think it will get any easier? I can assure you it won’t, and I expect it will actually get much tougher as the powers that be start to panic and begin throwing more and more money at the markets and don’t be surprised if they change the rules on you as you go.

    Why anyone would want to fight with that when they could just sit back and enjoy the ride on the gold bull is beyond me.

  6. Anonymous

    GaryUK says “Please don’t believe his cycles nonsense folks, fundamentals play a part too, and equities can’t defy gravity for ever.”

    What a stooge. He admits real Gary is kicking his butt handily, but that it can’t last forever. Further, Gary doesn’t even trade SPY right now (and SPY isn’t near 1000, UK must mean SPX).

    anon is right, I don’t think fish n’ chips even reads this site. He’s still hurting from the last couple rounds, and now that SPX is down 1-1.5% the last 2 days, he’s out beating his chest. What a joke.

  7. Anonymous

    Today looks to be a snooze fest, so thanks to Gary’s help getting me into strong-hand status, I think I’ll go camping and fishing.

    Good luck. See you next week.

  8. DG

    Gary UK: You are actually just making yourself look foolish. Gary called the Gold bottom at 1155, and the recent top at 1240. I am impressed that he was able to use cycle to do that. If you aren’t, well, you’ve simply chosen not to be for some odd reason that has nothing to do with investing. IF gold plunges from here, he will be wrong, but if it just backs off to around 1200 it will be another excellent call. I’m not sure what website you are reading but it doesn’t seem to be this one. As for the dollar and SPX, notice he doesn’t have you short the dollar or long SPY. Those comments are long term. Let’s see what happens over the next year.

  9. DG

    oops—my error—the dollar is a long term comment by him (destruction by Fed); SPX is bottoming soon according to his cycle low work, but I bet he doesn’t have you go long. He’s been pounding the table on gold, so if you’ve missed it, it is hard to blame him. If you want to focus on the peripheral comments it’s of course up to you to nitpick what is least relevant.

  10. DG

    Be careful. Looks to me very likely that GDXJ is going to get hit hard over the next few days. If you have too much you might cut back to core. It’s 29.10 right now.

  11. QuantTrader

    Thanks Gary. So do you prefer Gold or Silver right now? The Gold:Silver ratio is right in the middle of the band historically. Also, do you have a chart or something that describes all the different waves like C, D, etc…?

  12. Daniel

    Still have cash to put to work?
    Wait for Daily Cycle Low or put to work now and play old turkey!
    Obviously, since you are fully invested you are riding out this daily cycle– but when should new money be placed?

  13. Anonymous

    Again, when in doubt just think S&P 950 is coming.

    Oil looks terrible. We could wake up next week and see USO in the 20s. I see Monday and Tuesday as days to just sleep. Let this market bottom at 950 S&P before getting long.

  14. Gary

    Definitely silver. The gold:silver ratio is way to high. As gold moves into the C-wave top silver will start to massivley outperform.

    I would wait for a swing low. Probably sometime late next week before adding any new cash.

    The swing high formed this morning.

  15. Gary

    Pretty unlikely we see 950 during this decline. It’s been 4 months and the market has managed to drop 140 points.

    This daily cycle is right translated which means the odds favor the decline holding above the prior cycle low of 1010.

    Also we only have maybe 9-10 days left before the cycle is due to bottom. The odds of losing another 110 points in 9-10 days when it has taken 4 months to lose 140 is pretty slim.

  16. Jayhawk91

    DG-I think GDXJ is also heading for a brief beat down, but there seems to be a nice channel support as well as price level support under it at 28.50, if not I’m watching the 20 day around 27.84. Obviously will wait for the charts to firm up if/when they get to those levels. Also, daily RSI 7 which is a pretty good tool is flashing sell on GDXJ today.


  17. TZguy

    Looks like the silver coil (a much larger one than gary is mentioning…going back to May) is going to break to the downside instead of upside.

    Remember also that silver never really capitulated in this most recent period. Maybe it’s still ahead? (Along with a gold correction).

  18. DG

    I see what you mean, Jayhawk. My problem with channels is that they work until they don’t. I use them for setting stops. That is, I can buy at the bottom edge with a tight stop. Gary is right that stops are often run, in which case I lose pennies. When they work I make dollars. The stops aren’t ALWAYS run, and with my tight stops I only need to win about 1 out of 5 of this pattern. It is not favorite though.

  19. Gary

    I don’t really see a “larger” coil but silver is notorious for technical breakdowns before big moves higher.

    Aug. 07 is a classic example.

    Silver is a very thin market. Expecting it to obey normal technical analysis is wishful thinking at best.

  20. Gary

    One could maybe try to “pick” a bottom at $1200. If that occurs late next week then gold will be deep in the timing band for the cycle low and you should be very close to the bottom and one might even get lucky and score the exact bottom.

    Other than that it’s probably safest to just wait for a swing low.

  21. Gary

    I’m guessing we will see a BoW day sometime in the near future prior to the final bottom in the stock market also.

  22. Jayhawk91


    I don’t trade the channels or trend lines, but our good friend TheDocument likes to point out the trend lines on gold and spx to give a clue when the daily cycle up trend is broken. I like the price levels and RSI 7 to give a clue if we are gathering support-combined with cycle analysis and other great info guys like Gary and Doc provide it should put the odds in our favor! Also an nice juicy divergence on the MACD shorter time frames makes my confidence level much higher when entering a trade…I know Gary is not a big fan of some of these, but they are just supportive clues to me on my overall fundamental analysis on gold/silver.

  23. Daniel

    Nice posts today fellas–
    (Jayhawk & DG especially)
    I like information and less trolling–
    The info and past macro economic (inflation /deflation for example) debates are some of my favorites.
    Keep it up

  24. QuantTrader


    Platinum looks interesting too. Along with Silver, it should have more S&P beta once S&P bottoms and the ratio is at 1.23ish to Gold, historically a low ratio so it might play pickup just like Silver would.

  25. DG

    Yeah, Jayhawk. I use a lot of stuff too and look at them in descending order of what I consider to be the best indicators. For me sentiment is key since if everyone is on one side we just have to reverse. Then I use the other stuff to pick the top or bottom (tape stuff: volume and reversal patterns, etc.) I need to be pretty good at nailing a top or bottom given my tight stops, so that’s where a ton of my effort has gone over the years. Gary’s not a fan because he is, in part, doing a different thing, I think (generally longer term and using cycles) I say, whatever works for you as long as you are self-honest about it. It’s a great game, isn’t it?

  26. Gary

    Bonds tend to follow the stock market cycle. My guess is we will get a top in bonds close to the same time as a bottom in stocks.

  27. Natanarchist

    OPEX is next week for Gold and Silver…the big banks will probably hammer it until then. Something to consider as it ties in with Gary’s half cycle. I don’t have the link right now ( I will look for it) but there are big problems brewing with the COMEX and LBMA with physical delivery. Sinclair called this a couple years ago..the man might turn out to be right….again, just like Gary has been.

    To Gary UK…guys like you have been coming to this board posting the same negative crap about Gary SMT for years..and every time you guys turn out to be wrong. You think anyone and certainly not SMT subs will believe you? Instead of being a negative drag on the blog…make your calls, stick to them and good luck.

  28. DG

    Gary, please don’t shoot me, and maybe I shouldn’t even post this, but I am now looking to short GDX at about 51.50 if it gets there. Remember folks, I’m a trader when I see a high-odds setup. I plan to hold my gold for weeks or months after the coming dip (I am still long some now so I can look at the GDX short as a hedge against my GLD I suppose).

  29. Gary

    All I will say is I learned my lesson a long time ago. Never short a bull market. The surprises come on the upside.

    We could easily see gold pop up again one more time next week. There is still enough time in the daily cycle for another move higher.

    It just isn’t worth the risk of whittling away at ones gains by trying to fight the secular trend.

    Much safer to just go to cash if you think a correction is imminent.

    If one wanted to short something I would think the stock market would be a safer bet now that it has broken to a lower low.

    I certainly wouldn’t be willing to take that trade this late in the daily cycle though. At this point selling short is like trying to grab the cheese out of a mouse trap. Yes you might get lucky if you’re fast but is a little piece of cheese worth the risk of having the trap slam down on your fingers?

  30. Anonymous

    I disagree with repeated comments of comex delivery from Sinclair or Organ and people. Their data doesn’t make sense to me like when organ talks about massive deliveries and shortages. (Yes..I still think gold and silver are going *massively* higher.)

    The comex inventory warehouse inventories are on this page at the bottom. Updated daily.

    The registered gold inventory (amount available in the comex delivery system) has held around 2.6mil oz for months. Silver has held around 50mil ozs. When (if) they drop, it shows people taking oz out of the system. So far they aren’t.


  31. DG

    But it won’t slam on my fingers because I will be out quick if I am wrong. If the trade is 80% to work, and my risk is equal to my reward, I am in good shape. It’s just math. Being in a bull market means I wouldn’t hold a short position and go for a big gain. If we were in a bear and I got a good entry point I’d hold it. But here, I know what I am risking. If GDX opens at 54 tomorrow I’ll have lost more than I planned, but that’s very low odds (just got the short off, BTW). As well, being long GLD I’d probably break even if gold gaps up tomorrow. Much more likely I’ll take a small win out of GDX and go long it if things play out as you suggest they will. Good luck to both of us—It is likely we will both win; me tomorrow and you in a few weeks. Besides, I love cheese.

  32. Anonymous

    Wrong way TK banned me again. What a pompous tool.

    Gary, thanks for the open blog. Some people like TK just weren’t cut out for democracy.

    Good luck with your 250 positions TK, that has to be one of the funniest things I have ever seen. 250 positions??!!! Bwaaahaaaaahhaaa!

  33. Natanarchist

    hey TZ guy..I am looking for the info I had read earlier this week. If I find it I will post it here. BTW..I wouldn’t believe anything the COMEX says anyway..its like believing the BLS that unemployment is only 9.5%…these people are it is your choice to believe them, it is also my choice not to believe them. happy trading

  34. treasury bubble

    Gary, what do u think about the stk mkt bottoming next week with the sale of over $100 billion treasuries next week. What a coincidence?

  35. Gary

    I have noticed the market does like to bottom on a news event. The Feb, intermediate low occured on a Jobs report and the July low occurred the day before a jobs report. We get GDP revision next Friday. That would be day 40 of the current cycle. I bet the market bottoms on a bad revision…catching all the bears leaning heavily in the wrong direction on what theoritically should be bad for the market.

    Of course we will hear all the usual stuff about manipulation when the bottom does come.

    I suppose I should have considered this on Tuesday when we got the swing low. No associated news event.

    Oh well live and learn.

  36. pimaCanyon

    I wonder about manipulation. At one time I thought the idea ridiculous, the PPT and all that. Like it was just an excuse for wrong way traders to explain away their mistakes.

    However, now I wonder. Would the following be called manipulation? The Fed buys Treasuries from the banks (who have been forced to buy them previously with the zero interest money the Fed has been “loaning” them). The banks take the new money they get from cashing in their Treasuries and use it to bid up the stock market. Get enough of them doing that with enough money and the market has to go up, no? Ergo, the expression: Don’t fight the Fed.

    So should we all just become perma-bulls here? Not only jump on the gold bull market, but the bull market in stocks that is being engineered by the Fed.

  37. Rainman

    Your comment on revised GDP can possibly lead to bottom is quite diagonal to your views that market makes the news and not the other way around. Also, don’t you think market already knows about good/bad revised GDP?

  38. Gary

    Yes of course the market is already aware that the news is going to be bad that doesn’t mean market participants can’t wait for it to hit before buying. The old sell the rumor buy the news type thing.

    Actually all the Feds inflating is having less and less affect on the stock market and more and more affect in another area. I have a very enlightening chart that will be in the weekend update 🙂

  39. Anonymous

    $SILVER is no longer coiling on the daily, but would you say it is still doing so on the weekly?

  40. Gary

    No not really. Silver is such a thin market that most of the time it’s just a waste of time to worry about chart patterns. I was hoping silver would bounce out of the coil and break through that $1850 resistance as gold worked into the cycle top but obviously it’s not to be.

    Not to worry though silver will catch fire at some point during the final leg or legs of this monster C-wave.

    Just so you know. If you think the gold bull is a tricky son of a gun its nothing compared to silver. Silver is one tough SOB to hold on to.

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