Everyone might as well resign themselves to the fact that the SMT will be posted only to the website from now on. Every newsletter I’ve ever subscribed to is done this way and now I see why. There comes a point when it just gets too big to be sent as an email. The SMT has reached that point.

When I started this I had no intention of spending anywhere near as much time at this thing as I am. I’m retired and I fully intended to enjoy my retirement.  I realize I’ve made my bed and now I have to lie in it, but I can tell you I’m going to do everything I can to make this easy on me. And right now that means the nightly emails are done. I’m going to write the nightly report once and post it on the website.

I will tweet when it is posted so everyone doesn’t have to constantly check the site. However 90% of the time the report will be up by 6pm PST. Subscribers can just go to the site at 6 and usually find the report ready to go.

Intraday posts are pretty rare and even if you don’t get the post till the evening it usually isn’t going to make much of a difference whether you acted immediately or the next morning. But for those of you who think you have to react instantly I will tweet when I post an intraday alert. Most of the time they come premarket, so you could always just check the website before the market opens.

Now for anyone who is having trouble logging in. 90% of the time you have caps lock on. The other 10% you put the username in the password prompt and vice versa.

To make it easier the username will never change and it is very easy to remember. All you have to do is save the password on Sunday night when I send it out (perhaps on a sticky note on your computer) . If you loose the password email me and I will get back to you as soon as I can with the password for the week.

That’s it. Now let’s turn off the grumbling and get back to investing.

96 thoughts on “

  1. Phil

    Retired at 50 ? must be nice Gary hehehe … Ok I’ll stop grumbling but i deleted the pass word to your web site or the email i should say 🙂 I’m going to have to find it again 🙂

  2. Gary

    Now do you leverage addicts see what I mean? The market will eventually throw you a curve ball.

    If this turns out to be an intermediate top anyone who is heavily leveraged just took a big hit to their portfolio and it will only get worse. This is how one can manage to lose money in a bull market.

    I’ll say it again heavy leverage always eventually ends in a blown out portfolio. There are no exceptions.

  3. fubsy_cooter

    Curve balls indeed! Who ever could have guessed that we would be considering the possibility of the dollar hitting its yearly bottom now? Bizarre how markets work. Fooling most of the people most of the time. Great lessons here.

    This has got to be one of the most variable markets ever. Think about what we’ve seen in the last two years? ten years? What happens when everyone becomes an expert?

    Gotta be ahead of the crowd. I will spend my days in search of a secular bull to ride. Yeehaw!!

    My inner Scaredy Cat is gonna want to rise up in the next 24 hours though, I’m sure.

  4. fubsy_cooter


    I just want to express appreciation at your ability to read the market in real time. In other words, you don’t get stuck in preconceived notions/biases. If the market shifts gears you’re ready to shift with it. I’m learning a lot from that.


  5. Keys

    Only throwing this out there, but another day of today..ie a strong dollar move….and silver reacts like today…ie tanks pretty hard. We may be in a pretty big correction. We are really stretched, and I don’t see the reason to why we should go up from here.

    I really do hate gold, and this bull is a bastard. But I have a feeling that many have jumped on the get rich quick high leverage train…all those margin calls and forced sales might have the cleansing that gold, and especially silver may need. Also seems logical at this point.

    Something did seem different about today…a lot of strange, unlikely, things happening. Even if we do rise from here, I am going to get nervous, it seems like leverage is the cause to any future rise.

    Long-term bull not discussed…the US is still drinking from the sewage plant….I will be expecting some Bloomberg propaganda pretty soon supporting the all mighty dollar as the FED perpetually prints the crap out it.

  6. thedocument


    If you recognize Oct 19 as a daily cycle low for stocks, the setup makes a heck of a lot more sense. We are now on Day 15 with a Day 13 peak. If the Day 13 peak sticks… and I suspect it will… we are about to see a left-translated daily cycle which will escort stocks into an intermediate low. A break of that last daily low at SPX 1159 will confirm this outlook.

    Now, I know you may think the drop was too shallow to constitute a daily cycle decline, but it’s happened before. I have tools I use for identifying such lows which have had me labeling Oct 19 as a daily low for my subs since that day.

    Like you, I also strongly believe the dollar just threw a curve and is forming an intermediate low, so we have our impetus for such a decline, as well.

  7. alex


    Not being cynical..just cautious-

    you once said that charts are useless because they can morph into something else and changes the trade. Seems like cycles have been VERY unstable..short..translated…or I guess you could say MORPHING into something else too this past 2 months.

    The dollar Yrly cycle low 3 wks early? Gold topping now possibly?

    YES..Sentiment changes chart patterns…and sentiment (greed) changes cycles too?? no?

  8. Gary

    I don’t pick a non obvious spot as a cycle low just to make the cycles “work”. I just consider it a stretched cycle. But the end result is the same. If the dollar has made an intermeidate bottom then gold and stocks have probably made an intermediate top.

    If so then we have a pretty good idea where golds final leg is likely to top…that’s for tomorrow’s report though 😉

  9. Gary

    certainly. I’ve warned several times in the past that cycles aren’t the holy grail of investing anymore than any other tool we use. They are one of the best tools available in my opinion, but absolutely not fool proof.

    They did get us in at the August bottom and we will get out with big profits even if we do get thrown a curve so all in all not too shabby.

    I expect they will get us in pretty close to the bottom of the intermediate cycle low if this unfolds that way.

  10. thedocument

    On the contrary, the Oct 19 daily cycle low is quite obvious. As I mentioned, I’ve been calling it a low through the whole daily cycle (since Oct 21, actually), not just to make anything “fit”. I don’t do sloppy work… it’s way too expensive.

  11. Gary

    For me to call it a cycle low I have to be able to see it from the other side of the room. A one day drop doesn’t fit that criteria.

  12. Walter

    From today’s post:
    > Since today was the 12th day of the rally this
    > should be a right translated cycle. That means
    > it’s unlikely gold will drop back below $1315
    > at the next cycle low.

    But if the current daily cycle would turn out to be stretched to 24+ days, then today’s top at the 12th day would mean this cycle would instead be +left+ translated and so might well drop below $1315.

    In that case we can’t get out higher anymore using the bounce from the low, since we won’t be in when that bounce happens, after the stop took us out at $1315.

    So IF today would turn out to be a swing high, i.e. if tomorrow gold drops below today’s low of $1383, why not get out at, say, $1382? In that case there’s most likely more downside to come and if this cycle turns 24+ we may well end up exiting at the lowest ($1315) point.

    On the other hand, if gold breaks below $1383 tomorrow and not hit $1315 but turns up again, there will be a new swing low at which we can get in again.

    I think this is the same idea you floated last week, but then the downside was much smaller (approx 1350-1315, if I recall correctly). Now we’re talking approx 1390/1400-1315 downside, which is quite considerable, I’d say.

  13. Gary

    Trying to use swings in the middle of this cycle isn’t going to accomplish anything except to kick you out of a trade.

    Here’s how I look at it through an investors eye’s. I’ve already made a ton of money riding this rally up from the July bottom. If I lose a little bit of those profits because I have to make sure my exit is warranted then so be it. The big money is going to come during the final leg anyway.

    I know what levels will take me out (dollar related) and I know when I’m going to take profits (bounce out of the daily cycle low)

    Then my strategy is to get back in as close to the intermediate cycle low as possible and step on the gas hard as the final leg of the C-wave unfolds.

    Now let me warn everyone. remember how hard it was to sell yesterday when I took profits on SLW? I’m sure everyone thought I was wrong to do that.

    Well at the final C-wave top it’s going to be much much harder to take profits and I can virtually guarantee I will be early there too. But if you let your emotions control you again you will get caught in a D-wave decline.

    Let this be a lesson when it’s time to sell then sell and don’t look back.

  14. thedocument

    Gary: I used the same methodology to win our bet regarding the Sep 10 daily cycle low in gold which, by the way, was only a 2-day drop.

    TZ: It’s funny that I’m debating with Gary about stocks so much when I primarily trade PMs, eh? Well, Gary and I are pretty much on the same page there, except that I have an itchier trigger finger. I unloaded most of my holdings today. Even if this intermediate cycle has not peaked, I’m content to wait it out for an eventual low and get back in when my confidence level is higher.

  15. Tudor

    I just found this on Zero Hedge. It’s your post they picked up and published on their site on July 19, before I was a subscriber. On that day, gold closed at $1184.

    “So the bottom line is we are on the verge of getting one of the best buying opportunities we ever get in a bull market sometime in the next week or two. The question you have to ask yourself is, will you take it or will you let the “technicals” talk you into missing another fleeting chance to accumulate at bargain prices in the only secular bull market left?”

    Gold bottomed on July 28 at $1155. What a wicked sick call. Truly a thing of beauty.

  16. Gary

    And you and I both know that methodology will work this time and then fail the next time. 🙂

    I just like things to be obvious.

  17. skogie

    Gary, I posted this in the last comment thread very late in the thread so I’m posting again in case you just didn’t see it. What books do you recommend for someone interested in learning about market cycles? (If you saw this in the earlier post and passed it over, so be it. Take it easy and happy lifting. I’m looking at competing in the 2011 world masters in Montreal. Perhaps we’ll meet…)

  18. Gary

    I don’t really know of any books on cycles. I have a fairly detailed explanation of how I use them in the terminology document FWIW.

  19. Jerred


    Yes they do. Futures market trade 24 hours and you have the ability to watch Japan, Asia, and Europe trade.

    Most people believe the NY leads the move.

  20. Marc

    ZeroHedge had some good posts about the silver market margin requirement change. It just shows how nervous the central banks are about the flight to hard metallic currencies.

    Just like Bernanke is willing to do anything to avoid the effects of a natural de-leveraging, the powers that be will try to derail the natural effects of their meddling. We saw that today.

    The one thing that can’t be changed is the fact that PMs are a flight to safety. Like I said, they are worried.

  21. Onlooker

    Very hard to tell at this point, eh? The dollar could still reverse hard from here and PMs are back to shooting into an intermediate top. It’s happened many times before if you study the gold bull (look at the nasty day silver had on Apr 20 ’06). So I understand and agree with Gary’s diagnosis and trading plan.

    In order to make the big bucks you have to be willing and able to buy when it’s hard (interm lows), not sell too soon, and give up some profits from the top in order to not get kicked out too soon. And not get excited and keep adding too far into a cycle; especially on leverage.

    We’ve got our levels in the dollar and gold to watch. Now we just have to have the discipline to execute the plan. Emotions make all that much harder to do, no doubt. That’s what Gary’s here for! 🙂

  22. TZ (7006)

    My stops for all futures positions are now a bit above the lows of the day today. Base on my work (not cycles based), those lows should hold and we should rapidly return back up *IF* this was only a shakeout and not a more serious change of the trend. If we continue down I’m out and back to core. I will have made some nice change for the week (but obviously far less than at the highs today.)

    I agree it looks unlikely that we can return back up after today, but bull markets surprise to the upside they say. We’ll see what happens. Good luck all.

  23. Todd

    Don’t you think we had enough volume to warrant a blowoff top? SLV was over 7 times normal volume. ALL PM stocks reversed very violently with massive volume.

  24. TZ (7006)


    >I unloaded most of my holdings today.

    I find it interesting how many people were hit and or bailed now. I’m not out just yet. If the low today holds and we rally there are gonna be a *bunch* of people scrambling to get back in. I clean up big.

    If it doesn’t, I’m out with a bit less money and reload for next action.

    So far things dont look so bad for a resumption going up, imo.

  25. Gary

    We may have an intermediate top but this is no blowoff final C-wave top.

    When that happens the HUI will be stretched 40-60% above the 200 DMA. Gold will be 30-40% above the 200 DMA.

    Be careful it will be very easy to talk oneself out of buying the bottom of the intermediate cycle when it comes because it won’t look like a bottom… if this was a top.

  26. Todd

    Gary, So will you wait to sell until after the dollar breaks above your suggested mark in tonights report, then sell on the rally?

  27. alex

    GDX COULD fill gap 2morrow, then turn up for a bounce…LOOK AT OCT 7th CHART

    today was a bearish engulfing pattern BUT look at the GDX on OCT 7…same thing ,SELL OFF, next few days retested the high on OCT 13th-DOUBLE TOP…then corrected.

    IF Next few days goes up to todays highs, I would watch the volume…if its light..LIGHTEN UP! First …GAp could fill lower tomorrow, then up?? time will tell.

  28. thedocument

    TZ, you could be right, and best of luck to you. However, silver posted a huge reversal today… nearly $3 off its high… and the dollar formed a weekly swing low off a major trend line. When that happens, especially after the temporary break of that trend last week, I tend to think it was a trap. Conditions are very ripe for a more substantial bounce in the buck, and I am just playing it safe. I will be ready to load and lever once an intermediate low is identified for gold, whether it be higher or lower from here.

  29. v

    Hi Gary,

    I am a little confused after reading today’s report. We were expecting the dollar to make intermediate low around 71 later this year and C-wave to top around then. A move above 78.36 will negate that as 75.8 would be considered yearly low.

    If dollar breaks 78.36 then Gold on other hand will make a daily cycle low (most prob. stays above 1315)and then we sell our longs when gold bounces from daily cycle low while dollar could tag 80.

    So now we exit longs if Gold breaks 1315 OR dollar moves above 78.36 and we sell the bounce out of daily cycle low.The top made yest. would be considered the C wave top for Gold and D wave decline would start if dollar breaks 78.36.


  30. aviat72

    I was able to save the web page without significant issues, though I would love to have a PDF writer. Does anyone know of a PDF writer which integrates with Chrome and does not load a ton of spam?

    DX briefly broke 78. JPY is weak and Euro has just broken out down of the channel which took it from 13740 to 13800. Inflation numbers from France and Germany were weaker than expected.

    GC retraced almost 50% of its drop but now can not get over 1400. I think right now buyers are scared.

    But there is a LOT of economic news today (Jobless claims are today) which can move FX. However I think the Euro move is largely due to the debt fears coming together again. These are macro issues and willl not go away. Now that QE2 has sailed, and economic data has been better than expected, QE3 is likely to say hidden for some time. This has shifted the focus away from the US. All the criticism from foreign bankers about QE2 has also tempered any tom-toming which has been happening for the last few months, while they were marketing QE2.

    The weekly charts of DX show some kind of basing action; the MACD chart I had posted was showing the turn too. Perhaps it is now the turn of other OECD bankers to perform competitive devaluation.

  31. RA

    HI Gary,

    The debt problems in the EU can drive both PMs and gold higher. So if USD makes a higher high, it could be because of European problems and PMs can still rally. So wouldn’t the better line in the sand be the 1315 level for gold?

  32. Bruce

    From Bill Fleckenstein:

    “However, there could still be fireworks ahead for gold, as there are an inordinate amount of calls that have been sold with strike prices of $1,400, $1,450, and most importantly, $1,500. The sum of that open interest tallies to about $10 billion, and depending on who the sellers of that “vol” are, life could get pretty interesting over the next month.”

  33. aviat72

    That option data can be quite misleading. First of all they talk about notional amount. So if someone has sold one call at $1500, they count it as $150K (100oz/contract).

    Many investors write well out of the money calls to earn extra income. Most dealers will hedge their exposure (i.e. if they write a 1450 call, they will try to buy some longer term calls at the same strike, or some calls with a strike further out). Close to expiry, they will hedge their positions continuously to remain delta and even gamma neutral. These big strike levels also act as resistance which if broken can spur a short covering rally; but more often then not the dealers will try to push the price below the strike. Though in the long term investor demand will win out, in the short term dealers have enough fire-power to keep a lid on prices for a few days.

  34. Gary

    The C-wave top won’t occur until spring. We may however get the yearly cycle bottom for the dollar earlier than expected.

    We still have a further move down into the three year low later this spring.

  35. v


    Ok so strategy would be to take off leverage if dollar moves above 78.36 as this will mark the yearly cycle bottom for dollar and then we might get a small decline in PM which we will buy again for the 3 year low of dollar next year spring.


  36. Gary

    I don’t know how to calculate that one. We will just have to wait and see.

    We shouldn’t see it because the dollar’s intermediate cycle is way short. However the stock market intermediate cycle is right in the timing band for a move down. The most likely time for that to happen is now so it can bottom before the traditionally positive Dec. period.

  37. bamster

    Heh Gary,

    I’ve been following the dollar for the last couple of days and to me it looks like it is being manipulated up for this G20 meeting. I beleive the same thing happened a few weeks ago under the same circumstances.

  38. Gary

    And just how could that be done since the only tool the Fed has for moving the dollar is a printing press?

    Folks the stock market is way too large to be successfully manipulated for anything other than the short term. The currency markets are many multiples larger than the stock markets.

    If the dollar has put in the yearly cycle low it is because sentiment got too bearish not because some mysterious cartel is manipulating it.

  39. v

    Hi Gary,

    I exited my leveraged position in silver today at $28 as I was not comfortable with it.

    My strategy would be to sell half of my core positions when dollar moves above 78.36 OR else I will just wait to add back leverage when dollar breaks 76.14 again. Do I need to make any changes to this?


  40. Gary

    I wouldn’t neccessarily add back when 76.14 is broken. If gold and stocks enter an intermediate decline I would add as close to the bottom as I could. That would probably be somewhere around 80 on the dollar index.

  41. Keys

    Mirror Mirror on the wall,
    do we gap up before we fall?
    Do we get caught in another trap, or is this a chance for big snap back? The USD is set to tank, but we are fighting the almighty Federal bank. Perhaps the odds are in our favor, as gold and silver is what we savor. But even then there may be a demise, it may be fear and panic before our eyes.

  42. DG

    Gary: The dollar breaking 76.14 was likely to lead to more of a decline in the dollar, but didn’t. I assume breaking above 78.36 could also be a fake out before the dollar heads lower again. Any thoughts about that that aren’t obvious? Of course the market can do anything and you have to just play the odds.

  43. Gary

    What concerns me is that the dollar didn’t do what it was supposed to do. It should have continued down but instead it has almost certainly put in a shortened daily cycle low. If this daily cycle makes a higher high then I have to assume the trend has reversed and we have an intermediate cycle bottom in place.

    I know this means a very short intermediate cycle but it does set up a long cycle to follow that will move down into the 3 year cycle low. And it also adjusts the timing of the three year cycle to bottom in the March/April time frame which fits with the 08 three year low.

  44. Gary

    The risk isn’t for a swing low yet. But gold is at risk of having put in a daily cycle top and potentially an intermeidate top if the dollar has bottomed. If that is the case then we want to take profits on at least part of our positions and build up cash to be put to work at the bottom of the intermediate cycle.

    We won’t know until we get confirmation and part of that is for the dollar to reverse the pattern of lower lows.

  45. alex

    Could be a good bounce at the open , I just saw AGQ up $11.00 in pre mkt trade , and Gold up $13 and silver up $1.10 to 28.05

    dollar moving down for now

  46. Carlos

    Imagine Gold pass yesterday high (1424.25), what will change ? The run up will continue or we still have to wait for the dollar also ?

  47. Shalom Bernanke

    Sure gold could go up, even if the dollar goes up. We just saw this occur.

    IMO, the only way the dollar goes up if a country blows sky high (Ireland, Portugal) causing a flight to “safety”. In this case, USD rises, but gold is the ultimate safe haven, so they could go up together.

    Perhaps we should not focus so much on the USD at this stage? Sure, in normal markets they are usually inversely correlated, but this environment is anything but typical.

    Regardless of what people do with existing positions, dips will be bought in a big way, thus putting a floor beneath us. Too large positions will force people to think too hard and make errors. These pullbacks should be somewhat easy to digest, and if they’re not, your positions are probably too large.

  48. Shalom Bernanke

    I know most people here are just trading the gold bull, but as far as day trades go, I expect to enter the short side of ES futures today, possibly several times.

    This should be a good day for day trading stocks. I will not day trade the PM’s, as that’s a long term monster bull!

  49. alex

    I heard a lot of talk about “big reversals” in silver/gold stocks and especially the “engulfing candle” WITH HIGH VOLUME in many…people say it must continue down

    but look at the chart for OCT 7 This yr

    same candle, same volume , and it went up to retest the high , up 3 out of 4 days

    just saying…mkts could go up before down…dollar low could still be coming later this month

    ONLY time will tell


  50. DG

    Well, SB, I have to admit that you often have useful things to say (or does that just mean I generally agree with you?). I will try to put aside our previous feud and ignore your attitude and just dialogue about financial matters.

    I myself fight drawdowns tooth and nail, but then I am more of a trader. My goal (which I virtually never accomplish) is to have an up day every day. When I get hot, I make money on up days, down days, and sideways days, and keep the down days small. I never use leverage and I guess I am not trying to get rich doing this (I can pretty much do whatever I want now.) but I expect a good healthy return every year no matter what stocks, gold, oil, or anything else does. Lots’ of ways to play this game. Gary’s “This is a bull market, so just sit there and shut up” is probably the easiest and is usually the most profitable, except for my genetic predisposition against drawdowns (and my love of the game of trading). I also agree that if you do what you love it ain’t “work.” I’ll never quite doing my “day job” (I own my own small company) until they carry me out.

  51. Frank

    Looks like the party is back on…. with a strong dollar. Interesting that the yen is the weakest link in the dollar index today.

    Like I said yesterday, the USD is correlating with the broad market and I really hope to see decoupling of the broad market from gold miners.

  52. fubsy_cooter

    Took off a little froth this morning by selling my AGQ in premarket. Nice bounce. I still have a sizable PM position, but with the uncertainty I feel more comfortable without my AGQ.

    To me, 2x ETFs are for the more likely bursts higher, not for seesaw action. Too much gets shaved off the top during reversals on these tools.

    The comments are looking like there are a few fools playing leverage to the hilt. I guess it takes a fatal error to learn. Greed in the markets is one imbalance that allows us to get an edge. Let the others have the greed, and keep the edge.

  53. fubsy_cooter

    I bought AGQ at 100, 103, 107, 113and 122. Sold this morning at 130.

    I know it was the right move for me b/c now I feel less attached to the market. If it goes up, my accts rise. If it goes down, I get to buy more at lower prices. A strong hand sell.

  54. Gary

    I will say this. The hits to the blog yesterday were the largest they’ve been in a long time. That usually only happens at tops and bottoms. The sentiment was wildly bullish. We have a key reversal on large volume and the dollar is not doing what it’s supposed to do.

    Also the stock market has entered the timing band for an intermediate low.

    My feel is that we just got thrown a major curve ball and smart money will sell into any snapback reaction. I wouldn’t blame anyone who takes off leverage today 🙂

    I will wait for confirmation myself though.

  55. TommyD

    Could we be filling some gaps, like in SLW, or something? Yesterday was pretty weird along with Fox news of a stray missile and G19 meeting.

  56. Chrys

    Nobody talks elliott wave here. I’m not an expert but yesterday looked like a the end of a 3rd wave for silver and gold. Silver will correct with a simple ABC zig-zag (alternating with wave 2 complex wave)with a target of 25.75. Gold will enter a triangle ending at 1400. Then both PM zoom higher into their 5th wave. Further out there will be another correction followed by another high in the spring. HTH

  57. DG

    Friday’s sell signal was fulfilled and successful as we dropped 1% in two days (max should be five days). I am holding my shorts as with PM’s
    weak I feel more comfortable short some stocks as well, but the signal has now expired. I will post the next one (hopefully a buy signal)

  58. pimaCanyon


    If yesterday’s high was the intermediate top, we will wait for confirmation and then sell into the bounce that follows.

    Here’s a question: If yesterday’s high was the IT top and we follow the plan to sell into the bounce out of the IT low, what chance would you give that bounce being at a higher price than the price PM’s are trading at today?

    I’m guessing that today’s prices will turn out to be higher than the bounce out of the low. If that turns out to be the case and if the odds are high that we’ve seen the IT top (and it looks like they are), then it might make sense to take off some positions today and then wait to take off the rest (of the total that we’re planning to take off) on the bounce out of the low.

    Does that make sense?

  59. n1tro


    Your example of you selling SLW the other day is not a good example of when to get out. It only accounted for 10% of your portfolio. What would have been better is if you came on the blog yesterday while the action was going on and said you are selling the rest and if people didn’t believe, then they can have nothing to say today.

  60. aviat72

    We retraced about 62% of the drop and now Euro broke 1.37. But the PMs are fighting and not giving in. What the bulls want is to prevent the stops from triggering below yday’s PM lows. The market was balanced overnight before the Euro started dumping after the equities opened.

  61. Poly

    Let’s not forget the index is more than 50% Euro composed so this rise is mainly attributed to a declining Euro out of Irish debt fears. Those fears can be quickly forgotten.

  62. Gary

    I would need a crystal ball to tell you the answer to that one 🙂

    I do expect we will get a healthy bounce out of the next daily cycle low as everyone will expect the buy the dip strategy to continue working.

  63. Nick

    Well….the SPX has reversed hard almost immediately after exceeding the earlier high in april 2010….a repeat of the Double Top back in 2007, perhaps?

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