I’ve been in an almost constant battle with my email server now for the last couple of weeks. For some reason their system is set up to recognize bulk emails as spam. So when I send out the nightly report it occasionally triggers their system to shut down my outgoing emails for several hours.
After a 5 hour ordeal on the phone Saturday attempting to get the weekend report out, it has become painfully obvious that the nightly alert has become too large to continue as a mass email.
So from now on the reports will only be posted to the website .
You can still send email questions to me at the usual email address, but this too is starting to overwhelm me. So from now on I can’t guarantee I will be able to answer every email.
If you have general questions you can always post them here on the blog.
I will try to have the nightly report posted to the website by 6pm PST but occasionally if I’m out climbing it may be later than that. Most days it will be up by 3pm PST.
If I post an intraday alert to the website I will also post on the blog to notify everyone to check the website and I will send out a notice on twitter. My username is garysavage1
From the last post-I showed some numbers
Some interesting numbers on various miners, etfs, etc. Year to date and the past three months.
YTD-
NG 141%
NGD 138%
SLW 133%
SVM 92%
EXK 76%
GDXJ 62%
PAAS 52%
AEM 53%
HL 45%
CDE 36%
SLV 64%
Three months-past performance-
NG 125%
SVM 86%
EXK 82%
SLW 77%
HL 75%
NGD 58%
SIL 58%
SLV 50%
GDXJ 47%
Silver 30 and Gold at 1500… Actually according to Gary…they go above round numbers, so maybe 31 and 1525 seem to be in the cards.
Has anybody done a sanitization to the list of Juniors posted in the Site ?
I am looking for the ones with real potential, minimum liquidity yet small to sky rocket. Preferably without some fundamental flaws such as mines in Venezuela.
Which ones have you picked and will keep ?
alex said…
the dollar went to 77.34 tonight, does that change anything…meaning was a cycle top called early?
Makutaku…I have bought and love (but some are extended) exk , hl , ng , svm, Pal,…and recently bought ANO and TLR
there are more , but those ae good.
Gary…dude. I’m in awe. Fifty years old, all your hair, and not a speck of grey.
U rock.
Oh, yeah.The lifting and climbing is kinda cool, too. :-]
Gary, I don’t blame you for not wanting to beat your head against the email issues. That would suck. But for those of us that can’t follow the website throughout the day, would you consider using Twitter to send out alerts of portfolio changes and important updates? I use an email filter to send a text to my cellphone whenever you sent something out. That let me know to check the site. That would be a HUGE help.
Thanks! Tudor
Alex,
DXY value does not change anything. Check attached chart of the DXY and you will see we have retraced up to the 68% Fibonacci while at the same time gold has not followed. This is very bullish for metals. We have a long way down to go with a minimum target of 74 so now is time to grab the bull by the horn.. EUR/USD has also completed 5 waves down and is due for at least a retracement if not reversal. When gold is higher in a few days i dont want to hear that you are waiting for a dip or missed the entry….i will kick your ass!
DXY CHART
Just to clarify, instead of sending the email, make the entry to the subscriber side and send out a Tweet to let us know there’s something new.
yeah twitter would be great to notify people when the report is posted on the website
I can’t for the life of me figure out how to use twitter. Isn’t there and RSS feed on the blog that will send out an alert when a new post is up?
gary just outsource the job to these IT guys from India, check out this site http://www.odesk.com or http://www.freelancer.com youll get this mail or twitter figured out for about $20 bucks. Its not worth the time trying to figure it out
Twitter:
1. Sign up for an account.
2. Let us know your username. Anybody who wants to get your tweets can sign up to “follow” you. Each person can choose to get alerted via email, text message, or both.
3. When you post something new to the subscriber side, log into your Twitter account and send a tweet from the Twitter homepage that says there is a new post.
An added advantage is that you don’t have to keep an email list.
Easy peasy.
Gary
with today’s price action in gold, silver, what do you plan to do with the capital from your SLW sells? You still plan to wait for a correction in SLW to gap fill that might or might not happen?
fyi
RAZVAN….You ‘da funny man!
thx for the chart and explaination, but trust me..I have been on this bulls back since late july-early august. I have traded a bit , but never all out 🙂
When I saw EXK break out of a HUGE base and kind of a double bottom cup(pan)handle, I yelled out here…get on it!!
I am looking at TLR as a possible new buy…2 yr wkly chart shows it broke above a triangle pattern and just retested it. Time will tell…thx for the DXY info
twitter limits the posts to 160 words does it not? unless you create a twitter account just to post the weblink so users can click on it to read.
There’s a 160 character limit. (The size of a text message.) Gary would use it to alert us that there is a new post to the site. We “followers” would have to go to the site to read the update. So it might look like this:
SmartMoneyTracker: Portfolio change posted to website
or
SmartMoneyTracker: November 9th update posted
at which point the subscribers would know to check the site. Gary could include the URL in the tweet if he wanted.
And a correction: Receiving a Tweet via email can’t be done from Twitter, but can be done through various third party sites.
Gary:
It is relatively trivial to set up your own hosted web-site and then send as much email as you want.
If you do decide to stick to web-based access please create PDFs of the report so they are easy to archive on my PC; until now my email program (gmail) was working as an excellent archiving system. HTML pages are not easy to save since they have a lot of elements which get scattered.
On a different note, the USD has not made much downward progress since the first week of October.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75816409334
Weekly MACDs are turning up (though remained like that for quite some time last year). More importantly the Euro is showing significant weakness down 400 pips from last week’s high. It is not showing up so far in the DX due to JPY strength. However the DX is creeping up to that 77.4 mark.
So far the PMs have barely yawned at USD strength and the price action is uber bullish.
av,
All the reports are already archived on the website.
Gary, I emailed two suggestions about how you can overcome this ISP related email problem.
I’m trying to make my life easier. This is already taking up a lot more of my time than I ever intended when I started this.
So I’m going to go with the website and subs can login to get the report.
aviat72, I suggested the same. Another option is to use Yahoogroups set to admin notification only mode.
I personally am not a fan of Twitter. First we need to establish Twitter accounts and then we need to set up an interface to Twitter like Tweetymail. Not user friendly for non-Twitter users/ addicts.
p.s. Cox (I use them too) keeps its email limit secret, which is a joke. Verizon caps it at 100 addresses per message and 500 total per day.
Hi,
The premium site doesn’t work on my blackberry browser. I get the following message every time I try to open it on phone.
”Main header
Your Text Here.
Copyright 2009. Gary Savage. All rights reserved.
Cheap Web Hosting”
Is it only me or anyone else having same problem on Blackberry.
V
Hi gary, i would prefer if you could send by email your report in pdf version.This format could resolve any problems you’ve got with your server.Thank you so much.
Gary,
Can’t you just switch to a new provider with a different ourgoing server. I was sending thousands of emails to a subscriber list for a business of mine and had no difficulties with the right provider. Another option is to just send an email once something is posted to the website. Frankly, I find the email format very valuable and I don’t know about anyone else but I would be willing to pay more for your service to continue to get it in my email. Otherwise I have to constantly check the website to see if something is posted.
Steven
…follow-up…it would be very helpful at the very least to attempt to continue with the email format until either the intermediate correction of the end of this C wave.
Thanks again…
i totally agree with steven.Email format is much preferred and helpful for who (like me) can’t stand at pc all the time.
thanks again
I’m trying to simplify my life. Notwithstanding this ongoing problem this is already taking up way more of my time than I ever intended when I started this. So I will not be doing the email anymore. It takes a long time to compose as an email send it out (hopefully with no problems) and then turn around and do it all over again when I post it to the website.
I will send out a notice on twitter when a report is ready for viewing or if an intraday alert has been posted but I’m not going to do the email alerts any longer.
I own the following juniors, NG and QNMNF
Also AEM and GDXJ
Whatever happened to the guy who complained that silver never moved 🙂
Looks like the dollar is done with its pathetic rally… on to 74!
And where are Justin and Gary_UK?
I too would prefer emails and if the pdf attachment idea works it would be take you about 30 seconds to convert the website post to a pdf. If not, I can understand the frustration about calling your email host. Not worth it, but think about the pdf approach.
Silver getting lots of support…there is blood in the water now…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8116143/Whistleblower-accuses-HSBC-and-JP-Morgan-of-silver-futures-scam.html
Hey Gary
do you care to comment on how you plan to deploy the capital from your SLW sells?
One could wait for SLW to fill the gap or just stick it in AGQ. It has been outperforming SLW anyway.
Don’t forget I’m leveraged. When I take down some of my SLW position I’m still leveraged. Someone who has no leverage might not even want to seel their SLW position.
gold and silver on a tear overnight and into this morning. hopefully everyone held tight for the ride up
Gary,
On occasion I have received other advisers reports, from a friend. They have all been in PDF format. Four years ago I signed up for Jim Cramer 1 year, I teaches you how NOT to follow his trades, but I am guessing he had his own server.
Whatever you decide I think the herd will follow…
Gary,
your service is very valuable and people need to understand that you make yourself available to answer questions to a greater extend then most other service providers around. I think some people, especially the noobs, try to take advantage and ask a million questions about everything under the sun. I dont mind if the update is posted just on the web if it makes it easier for you.
Gary,
I know how frustrating IT can be and just want you to know that however you decide to deliver your market insights is fine with me.
I know I’d outsource the IT work to someone in India. You’re time is far to valuable to waste tweeking IT problems. Your better off to pay an Indian $40 to figure it out and set it up properly.
Read 4-Hour Work Week. The guy’s a dweeb but has some good ideas and links on saving time for the important things in life (like helping us make money).
Will the password still be sent via email once a week?
Also, I am thrilled that my portfolio is back above what it was before the crash of 2000 and that’s after only 2 months with Gary’s advice.
The last decade was a sad lonely experience. 🙂
Yes I should be able to sneak the password past the system once a week.
I posted this to the other thread. SLW’s CEO is on CNBC today at 12:30. Quite an interesting move into the mainstream.
p.s. Gary, I wish you would reconsider using Twitter rather than email. A notification email would be sufficient. If you use the right platform then it’s a quick email to a single email address.
Gary:
I often read the reports when I take my son out to swim/chess/karate/put your favorite activity here classes. Often I do not have internet accesses. So archives on the web-site are not serving the purpose.
HTML pages are very hard to archive. Generating a PDF for your nightly report should be trivial.
I personally recommend that you get your own domain and send the email from it. It is trivial and will free you from these hassles.
Getting the email on your email box is one less task when compared to logging in every day to a website. And with a toddler and a kingergartner, my hands are full! I used to read the COT report every weekend; but after you stopped sending them it has just fallen off my plate.
You don’t seem to understand that the mass email is shutting down my outgoing email server. Then I can’t get login info out to new subscribers or answer questions.
Even if I used a servie I would be constantly trying to update their data.
Email just isn’t an option anymore.
Just get used to checking the website in the evening when you get home from work.
Gary
You once said ( maybe many times) that in the last phases of this c-wave many will sell early and not be able to hold on. Aug to oct was easy to hold on , but some of those stocks I hold have NOW done the 2nd (equal) leg of an a-b-c in just days ALREADY! Like EXK ,HL,NG
EX: AGQ AUGUSTto October ( 2months)
A) $58 to B) $105 = $45ish
now in about 2 weeks another $45
$105 to $132.00
SO…Is it possible that the cycle ..(BASED ON SENTIMENT) would now change to shorter due to over bullishness and its quickness)??
if not, then you re right, some will sell WAY EARLY…like now. thx
i think the profit takers from this morning are gone. let the chasing begin!
V – this seems to happen with the BB browser and Opera Mini. However, I downloaded a browser called Bolt and it works fine with the premium site. Hope this helps.
Android is the way of the future guys. At least with android, you can log in using the browser and make a trade. Whats the point of getting the email alert and not being able to log in and do anything about it?!
$HUI up 19% since last few days in October!
Bailingout
Everytime you post something I read you re name and I’m yelling…”NO, DONT BAIL OUT YET!!”…
then I realize its just your username lol whew
$HUI – A vacuum is most certainly the word. This puppy is being chased like nothing else, volumes are impressive. Dumping now is leaving so much on the table.
Find some nerve, when the equities and the dollar join the party it will be some fireworks display.
Whatever makes it easier for you to keep up the good work Gary, is fine by me.
We are all capable people, so checking the website shouldn’t be too much of a problem.
And given that you encourage an old turkey style of investing, i’m sure we can survive without instant gratification.
JUST A HEADS UP…
PZG and TLR are both in 2 yr basing consolidations. Today they are about to breakout and their volumes are GREAT.
Future rockets for your watchlists 😉
Gary,
I understand your frustration with the email problems you’ve been having. (I wouldn’t have put up with having to mess with it for as long as you have! Apparently you are a very patient man.) The daily update on your website certainly works for me. Tweets on twitter for interim updates is a nice touch.
I also understand your desire to make life easy for your subscribers. Some folks want the email to continue, some want PDF’s, etc. But logging into your site once a day to read the update is about as simple as it gets, so I’d suggest sticking with that plan. The few subscribers that don’t like it will adjust, and I’m guessing they will find it’s not such a big deal after all.
LOL, Oh good old Timberline Resources. You know the market is getting into funky crazy mode when these micro caps start to take off.
POLY
YUP, but i look at TLR on a 2yr wkly and this went from .30 to 1.70 on last yrs run…HUGE FLAG consolidation…so it may be time.
same with PZG , they both have the daily volume coming in strong.
Gary, website updates work for me.
For those who are familiar with Twitter, are there any security issues with setting up SMS to your mobile phone? Or are there any free services that will let you link your email to Twitter?
Gary:
My request for PDF on the website has nothing to do with email. Whatever program you are using to write the nightly report should be able to save it in a PDF format. You can just post that instead of the html pages.
I do understand what you are saying about your outgoing server. The problem is your ISP. If you have your own domain it would not be a problem. But that is not relevant anymore.
For me, having a PDF on the web-site will be still better than no email and no PDF on web-site.
WHEN THE WIND BLOWS, EVEN TURKEYS FLY
WATCH…for breakouts
VGZ , PZG , TLR
TLR…has 600,000 volume before the first hour…usually has 500,000 avg daily volume.
Gary, the problem is that it is not “your” email server. You are using COX and they set restrictions and to make it worse they either don’t reveal their cap or use an algorithm. At least with Verizon you know it is 100 per email and 500 per day.
If you don’t change to your own platform, i.e. truly your own outgoing mail server, then you are going to have a worsening headache sending out the password once a week as your subscribers expand. There is no way around that. You will spend more time doing that every Sunday than sending email notifications from your own platform.
The only other option is to allow subscribers a unique login, which requires upgrading your website substantially.
Hosting of your own domain costs like $5.95 a month and it also allows control of your own domain/ brand name.
Another option is to use a platform like Yahoogroups. Very easy to manage and you send out a single email. Another PM newsletter service that I subscribe to uses this platform.
p.s. Cox will block the use of other outgoing mail servers but you easily bypass that by having your hosting provider set up a unique port number for POP mail. Cox blocks port 25 for POP mail. I also use Cox at home so I am able to send business email via our company server by bypassing this way.
For example, your outgoing mail server would be mail.garysavage.com using port 2025.
I meant to say “more time to send out one password via a Cox server on a Sunday than a whole month’s worth of email via your own platform”.
I’m going to name my 3rd child “AGQ”, just hit my first 20 bagger!
naming my first kid Nova or endeaver…maybe Heckla
🙂
China and Taiwan announce measures to restrict capital flows. Beginning to shut down another use of excess QE liquidity? PM’s drinking from a fire hose??!!!
Note that the USD has disconnected from the PM space recently and is only responding to the broad stock market. And that’s positive. And that is why I question Gary’s focus on the DXY. The Euro can easily break down again for various reasons and the USD will look relatively strong.
I would like to see the broad market fall and have PMs disconnect. That’s what we had from the end of 2008 through Spring 2009. Although the miners were beaten worse than the S&P on average through Nov 2008.
I continue to argue that USD devaluation relative to other currencies is highly undesirable.
Frank is a smart guy, Gary.
Listen to him. You need to get your own server like he says or start using Yahoo Groups.
Gary, I agree with Alex above…the rise in Silver and AGQ in the last couple of days since the Fed meeting is scary….sentiment getting extrememly bullish here?
Gary (or anybody),
I didn’t know if I had to set up a twitter acct. to get auto updates from your subscriber site, but I did. Now how do I get those auto updates to go to my email address?
At yesterday’s close $SPX:$HUI at lowest for at least 3 yrs.
Thanks for the complement, alysomji.
driver1,
I do not like Twitter so not an expert, but I believe that you need to set up yet another account with an interface like Tweetymail. One reason that this is not a good idea. And as I pointed out in my long post above it does not solve the problem of sending out the password.
Gary
I fully understand your frustration in dealing with this. I’m a relative tech novice myself and hate getting caught up in some of this crap.
I’m fully satisfied with your solution. Though I’m sure there are other ways to skin this cat that may be even better, as suggested by others here.
driver1 – I’ve set up a free account with tweetymail.com that will send alerts to my email address that I monitor closely. It’s pretty easy to set up, once you have a twitter account established. I guess there are some other similar services out there, but this is the first one I came across, so…
Sounds like this is what you’re looking for. I don’t use twitter otherwise, so this will be the only use I have for it.
Many mining securites had gap openings today just like they did 3 days ago. There are many JUNK mining stocks that gapped as well. That is a sign.
There is some buying mania in this things now and a reasonable indication we might have a pause or pullback for a day or two. At least enough to close out the morning gaps
The gap open on SLW had substantially more volume than normal (and so far today).
Things look ready for a pause, but I’m not sure how low or long.
I’d personally be holding if I owned from lower levels. If I had just bought in the last few days I’d be more worried.
And bad earnings do still have an impact. High flier GSS is down over 10% today.
I stick to yesterday’s comments which were that I think something unusual is happening to silver. Possible short squeeze and revaluing against gold. I still say I’m not confident SLW makes it back to that gap at 30 for an entry. Like I said, I’d be holding.
Poly, what does 20 bagger mean?
20 bagger means a 20 fold return. You bought AGQ when it came out? and held the whole way?
Way impressive! Congrats!
This comment has been removed by the author.
Poly,
How do you get a 20 bagger from AGQ? You would have had to buy it at around 7 and it never traded that low unless you’re using options.
This comment has been removed by the author.
does the dollar trading at 77.18 right now mean anything bothersome??
you get 5,10, 20 baggers usually playing with penny stocks. I’ve done it a few times with mol.to and hrg.to. Waiting on tvi.to to be my next 10 bagger! But number of bags dont really matter, its how many shares you got when it hits is what counts.
I think Poly uses options guys.
Pretty hard core reversal going down here.
I made the statement yesterday that SLW was moving 2X silver (and silver was moving 2X of gold.)
Gary’s comment earlier make me look at that again and there is a slight adjustment to the statement.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGQ:SLW&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87887838337
This is a ratio chart. AGQ is the numerator, so if the chart is climbing it means AGQ is outperforming the denominator (SLW).
AGQ underperformed SLW for 2 yrs, but that is not the case since approx Sept. (That underperformance could be caused by the decay of the leveraged ETF. Still…it didn’t *out* perform.)
Thus owning AGQ or (2X silver futures in my case) instead of an SLW gives BETTER performance (based on recent history). And remember the ALWAYS true market addendum clause… “SO FAR”.
My statements yesterday made 2x silver(AGQ) appear roughly equal to SLW.
(close your eyes Gary)
Yes using calls. $130 Nov AGQ calls, $0.70, currently $16.
Small 3 option position ($220) few weeks ago that Silver will do what Gary said it would meaning AGQ will be around $150 by around the middle of the cycle.
It was a gamble, but certainly one that followed Gary outcome script. I was prepared to lose the entire $220.
Gary,
Since it’s pretty obvious that the PM complex has decoupled from the dollar and is trading on an emotional high of fear and greed, does this throw a wrench in cycle theory?
BTW, I’ve always preferred the daily reports on the website. I’d rather you focus on the investment strategy rather than being the IT guy.
Gary:
My request for PDF on the website has nothing to do with email. Whatever program you are using to write the nightly report should be able to save it in a PDF format. You can just post that instead of the html pages. When you save html pages it creates multiple files and folders and often images go missing.
I do understand what you are saying about your outgoing server. The problem is your ISP. If you have your own domain it would not be a problem. But that is not relevant anymore.
For me, having a PDF on the web-site will be still better than no email and no PDF on web-site.
Aviat72,
You can use a print to PDF program to create your own PDFs.
NG is getting hammered. It’s around 90% over 200 day MA and I’m thinking of dropping it. The problem is that it won’t be a long term gain for me until tomorrow. Damn tax code!
AGQ is actually outperforming 2x silver too. Interesting.
Since the launch around 8/24/10:
SLW=80% gain
Silver= 59%
2x Silver= 120% approx
AQG = 135%
2x silver still beating SLW. AGQ is beating 2x silver probably due to the rebalancing each night. That would work on the reverse on the way down (or I think when flat).
Looks like the majors are in style today. Folks must be taking profits in the juniors.
“AGQ is actually outperforming 2x silver too. Interesting.”
AGQ mirrors the performance of silver on a DAILY basis only, so over a longer amount of time and in a rising market you’re compounding quicker, simple math. The same will exist in a decline, AGQ should decline more than 2x over a given amount of time. This is not a good vehicle for the long term as time will slowly decay these funds.
Marc,
I expect cycles will hold up just fine. It’s still early in the cycle for a top in metals and a bottom in the dollar. either way like I said last night we will not try to avoid the next cycle low for the reasons I went over in the report.
anyone know anything about a relatively newer stock AMOK (amarok resources)??
large moves and high volume.
Silver is close to putting in a second week of almost a $2 gain (so far). That is matching my short squeeze, ‘generational’ runaway theory I mentioned earlier (and showed with platinum chart from 2008.)
Something is going on behind the scenes with this and being out is a large risk, imo.
This comment has been removed by the author.
The dollar is rallying and the stock market is dropping.
BUT the stock market is dropping because inflation fears and concern about the fed is shooting up.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704635704575604050836250966.html
So I’m not so sure dollar strength or market pullback THIS time takes down the metals because THIS time the causes are from fears about currency collapse and inflation.
This is why cycles are exceptionally useful at tops.
When things start to get really heated like now traders invent reasons for why it will continue to go up forever. If you know a cycle top is coming you can ignore the irrational exuberance and just concentrate on what is coming.
Gary,
Whats your short term target for silver? Thanks.
I have no earthly clue how anyone could pick a realistic target in this environment.
TZ: “Something is going on behind the scenes with this and being out is a large risk, imo.”
I’m glad I’m in for the moment, but I have to tell ya, it’s feeling riskier and riskier being in.
bailingout: Sell deep ITM call options.
PMs have decoupled from the DXY. Today CL, ES are all stepping down with DX. But the PMs are not.
However, GC is showing relative weakness and is forming an ending diagonalish pattern (a wedge). It is up about 100 from the Wednesday low. Silver it seems is in a rush to tag 30.
SILVER TARGET:
We are in a runaway squeeze, imo.
$2 gain/per week. This is 2nd week.
2-3 more weeks like this.
approx $35 minimum/reasonable target (and since most expect $30 it would be nature for the market to go higher)
HOWEVER – somebody is on the wrong end of the trade at this point (I would assume the two bullion banks being sued.) So the final capitulation pop could be a wild swing maybe up to $40 or $45.
The december silver contract (high open interest) starts deliver at the end this month which is coincidently about 3 weeks away. That could be the trigger for the blowoff.
OBVIOUSLY these are my opinions only and I could be wrong! DANGER DANGER. Be careful.
BTW all the folks with the 2x instruments, remember that once the price of the ETF shoots up, the retracements are also painful from the dollar point of view. So buying some puts (or put spreads) to protect gains against overnight action may not hurt.
SILVER up 1.48…and the dollar up to 77.25?? who would have believed that weeks ago!
crazy
as for BEDE…me too. I held NG as long as I could, but I sold half and may get into something earlier in its run. Its just SO HIGH over its 200dma.
Hedging is a waste of money for retail traders. You just end up with two positions you have to manage instead of one. If you are wrong then you just threw away money on a hedge that you didn’t need.
If you don’t time the exit correctly then you again throw away money on a hedge.
If you think a correction is coming just sell. It really isn’t any harder than that.
anyone dump their exk today?
BEDE:
>I’m glad I’m in for the moment, but I have to tell ya, it’s feeling riskier and riskier being in.
I think whatever is coming will amaze all of us. When “it” happens I’m pretty sure we will know it. It will make our jaws drop.
A slow grind up like this with no violent gaps or surges is indicative of a party caught on the wrong side and trying to get out against overwhelming buying. At some point they will crack and you’ll see it.
(Of course they might also try to change the rules, etc. Always risks. AND I COULD ALWAYS BE WRONG, SO DONT BET THE FARM)
Gary
typically we see gold daily cycles run 20-30 days bottom to bottom, correct?
thanks
TZ:
Didn’t bet the farm, only bet half my GDXJ position which is getting left in the dust. 😉
Even if silver keeps going up we are due for some sort of violent whipsaw anytime now. A $2 swing probably would do it.
Gary,
What are your thoughts about what we’ll eventually do with the cash we freed up by selling off some of our SLW? I miss the extra gains already! 🙂
Here comes the first real suck-out, fight it.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Big drop in gold. Let’s see where it goes. Maybe daily cycle is topping.
i see bursting bubbles on slv,slw,agq. time for a pullback i think
Sell? Only thing I see here is a big shake out, I’m getting ready to jump in.
Hedges are useful for tax purposes.
at which point should we start to add to our positions Gary?
Wow. A little unsettling to watch, but probably a good thing.
Yee haw! Now that’s a nasty (but healthy) shake out of some late comer buyers. Fell off a cliff. Ought to tamp down some bullishness, at least in short term. I can hear the bears from here, calling this the beginning of the end (again).
Strong hand status sure does make this a lot easier.
SLW may be on way to filling gap at 30 – 30.75? Thanks for the alert yesterday Gary, looking like another good call…
Everything is OK.
and the dollar rallys
Now THAT was some fun.. muaaahaahaaa
MLMT,
yeah, 2 more dollars down and you are back to even
LMAO
This comment has been removed by the author.
There WILL be a nice sized bounce in both gold and silver to suck in more people and then a gap down tomorrow below today’s low is a high probability event.
IMO it is short the bounces now in the PM world
@Jerred You should worry about where you would be when we are 2 more dollars down on silver. Don’t worry about me 🙂
Just about got my 1% down move from Friday’s sell signal. Don’t mind keeping the SPY shorts for now as a partial hedge against my PM longs.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ADDED some silver
so again….AMOK…up nicely (still) on decent volume for it …see 2 month chart.
anyone know this company??
Stop right above the lows on that additional silver; not going crazy
bailingout said…
aviat72,
Don’t forget FU.
——————–
???
That deep ITM calls was on your comment regarding tax issues. You cannot buy a put since it counts as a sale; you can sell deep ITM call to effectively reduce your delta and risk, while profiting from the theta and option premium.
That ending-diagonal on GC was a tell as was the $100 move up from Wed. All we did so far was tag the value area high (TPO) from yesterday(that was also the break out point).
BTW Gary, Put spreads are relatively inexpensive insurance (10% OTM are about $2 for $10 protection on AGQ). Since metals move big overnight, and your stops will not be hit till you the stock start trading, they help protect gains and let people sleep better.
SO FAR this has been a normal pullback.
TZ, nice call.
Crazy, I made that comment about a $2 drop then went to lunch. Got calls from two people, packed up the lunch and ran back to my palatial mansion.
@TZ
Genuine question: I would really like to know how does one differentiate between normal pullback and an abnormal one?
Really dont want to reveal that. Sorry. I said I bought. This drop should be gone within 24-48hrs if i’m right. If not, my stop is near the low we just hit and that extra buy is out. (I moved up the stops on my original silver position to around 25.75.)
buying more
VGZ
right here & now
not much risk, but broke higher on volume earlier
SLV and AGQ showing up on SoS today…further pullback likely.
Also, given today’s price action, Gold may be forming a swing high tomorrow.
Is it possible that the bullion banks took a charge at gold and silver given the very fast and sharp decline in the price? I didn’t time it, but felt like it happened within 1 minute. Market manipulators do that for stocks they want to pick up cheap before it rallys from my experience.
Some observations on the Bearish side for Gold (Not saying it will happen, but things to keep in mind – these tie in to Gary’s weekend post):
1. A move above a big round number ($1400)
2. Quick reversal with a long upward tail
3. A left translated daily cycle which will move below $1315.
n1tro:
There was something wrong starting 12:55 when DX fell but the PMs were flat-lining. GC and SI are pretty much trading in tandem with SI with higher volatility.
Then around 13:05 they started selling. Of course the bullion banks will try to shake out as many people as possible. Today was set up as a day where they could do a lot of damage (SI up 5%) and they did. The price action in gold was also indicating some kind of flat-lining.
What I have noticed that consolidations below resistance (round numbers) like the one we had around 1300 lead to solid breakouts without much fake-outs. When the round number gets taken out in first try, it tends to result shake-outs; markets get too overbought and needs to correct itself before it can find new buyers.
If Equities end near lows of the day, then be very wary – jobless claims tomorrow. Good data will send equities up and dollar up – sending silver and gold down. Those doing futures needn’t worry. But I really expect a gap under today’s lows.
The CME is raising gold and silver futures margins at close of business wed (tomorrow). They are now trying to hit these things and rachet up pressure.
Correction: only raising silver margins, not gold.
Just stick with the script and stop questioning it, Silver on a daily basis is still at a decades high and gold above $1,400!
All silver has done (SO FAR) from the point of view of SLV (look intraday) is drop to close it’s opening gap and grind up a bunch of people on high volume.
This isn’t catastrophic….yet.
Looks like the $$$ is set to challenge its high around 78 and change. Once it gets up there, am expecting a MACD divergence and then a resume of its decline.
Only caveat is the Irish situation. If this persists, $$$ could strengthen considerably just like it did earlier this year on Greece fears. What that means for PM’s I don’t know.
Gary,
Can you help us about you think about this last hour ?
I’m playing a strong afternoon sell off into the close. Going shopping at 3.58pm.
Stopped out extra silver.
wow…SLW 37 to 32 in one day…just nasty
Nasty but Necessary and Healthy!!!!
Nobody knows how to value gold and silver. What are they really worth? Silver up 2, so what, what does it mean? That’s why precious metals go parabolic up and down. Nobody knows nothing. And you thought that it was difficult to evaluate banks for their toxic assets! Can you smell Ponzi or Tulip a mile away?
I know Gary has said SoS numbers have no meaning on any stock or etf except for SPY, but I have to wonder. Yesterday we saw extremely high SoS numbers on GLD and look where we are today. Gold down more than $30 from its high of the day. Quite a move.
Today we are seeing SoS on SLV.
I got destroyed today trading SIL. Man, freaking brutal.
Certainly looks like more weakness to come tomorrow, but do not worry, everything will be OK.
I don’t have the stomach to take a look at my account today hehe
Beanie – Yeah, nobody knows how to value Gold and Silver…but then the same can be said for all the fiat mmoney, no? Gold, Silver, $$$ etc. are just that….values which the Public believe (Gold, Silver) or the Central Banks control($$$)
AGQ is also on the SoS list today.
Washing out weak hands!
SoS ? Can anyone tell me what is SoS please ? I am new on this.
Thanks.
Today’s cloud has a silver lining though (ahem…): SLW is on the BoW page. Big money is buying that puppy.
SoS = Selling on Strength
BoW = Buying on Weakness
Take a look here:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3002
Thks Pima
I figured that SLW was done for when “Guy’s Adummy” on CNBC was pumping SLW.
GSS is down 18% today.
If you’re trading/investing any of your portfolio (I assume you are if you’re here!)on Gary’s advice, then give it the benefit of the doubt. Sit tight or go for a walk or get out that check book and start buying.
This is when the Sprott trusts really excel, both being down less than their respective metals.
Apparently CME raised silver margins intraday, causing forced liquidation of leveraged longs.
This is why I shorted the SPY’s and SMH on my Friday sell signal “even though it’s a bull market.” For two days SPY was down and gold up. Now my shorts are taking some of the sting out of the PM down day. Just another way to play…
Gary is one of the best coaches I have ever seen, but as long as you don’t go nuts with leverage due to his exuberance and surety, he can be a great adjunct to whatever style you have. I am making a lot more in the PM complex than I ever would have without him.
Looks like i’m gonna get shown up on my comment about slw having a hard time closing that 30 gap. Didn’t bet a burrito though 🙂
Just sold some UUP calls at a nice 50% profit.
According to the CME notice I got, the new margin rates take effect close of biz TOMORROW (wed).
The bull does not want anyone on his back!
what’s up with dollar? is it headed back over $80?
Could this be the start of the d-wave in Gold?
Man, where is Gary when I need him. I don’t think I have ever seen such bearish engulfing patterns on such high volume. I will definitely need Gary to get me to be positive through this correction. I wonder if this is the intermediate top.
There’s one reason not to trade futures vs. stocks/etfs!
I’m buying the close.
Shalom
What do you think, after that day, what will be the trend for gold and silver ? Up or more down ?
So far a textbook A=C correction with B wave 38% retracement of A/C both in SI and GC. Silver has corrected 50% from last Wednesday’s low
If you look back at previous C wave tops, the final leg up has often contained vicious volatility like we’re seeing today. Can’t wait to see what coach G. has to say tonight…
Well, I’m buying this weakness for sure. Only small lots every .25c down on silver.
I have no idea where this sell off will bottom, and I don’t really care. I’ll buy it all the way down and sell it all the way up.
The long-term picture hasn’t changed, so it’s buy weakness, sell strength, as before.
No leverage, so I can sit on my positions until the bull comes back. And he will. Just as soon as he has bucked off the weak hands.
Hmm, that sounds a bit rude.
Intersting day today, obviously.
Many possibilities.
-An outsied reversal day on huge volume suggests an exhaustion top.
-Cycles suggest a mid cycle consolidation into a half cycle low.
-Buying of late by central banks has been kicking in on every meaningful decline. Will this occur again? It wouldn’t suprise me to see the PMs drop over night and into the open only to reverse higher again. The metals are volatile, and this drop certainly will serve to dampen sentiment quickly and knock a lot of riders off the bull.
-Although its hard to see the numbers drop in my account, I will be waiting for a swing low to add to positions. My hope is that we don’t have to deal with a break of 1315. It would be difficult to watch the profits of the past week evaporate.
At this point, I’m going to let the markets tell me what to do like Gary suggested last night. It is nice to have the knowledge that if the market is entering a meaningful correction that the secular bull will eventually take care of any errors in timing.
I had a buy order in for big size on SVM, way away from the mkt when I put it in, and got filled .02 off the low.
However, I still believe we will see weakness into the morning, or even late morning if they open higher….but that is an opportunity to buy more.
Even if we get weakness for a week or so, this is the worst of it. I’ll be buying around these prices (little lower probably, but higher is fine too, once things settle).
After today, if you are still in, there is NO WAY I’d sell here. Bull markets haev very sharp pullbacks, and they typically don’t last long…so looking to add back what I took off yesterday.
Feels like a top. Specially in silver. The euphoria was just too high.
If the dollar gets above 78, I´m getting out of my position.
Carlos,
Today broke the momentum, but not the trend, this is why I believe we’ll see more weakness, but I’m not trying to exit a bull market into weakness…only question is when to buy.
These sharp drops are typically just a way for specialists to take stock from you that they know is going higher.
I added back some more silver at the close here.
And the CFTC just had to do something to protect the criminals that might or might not be selling gold they cannot deliver, so they raise margins.
Either way, I’m long the only bull that’s left, and hoping for more weakness to get even more long.
Thanks for your thoughts Shalom.
gives me a chance to buy some physical silver at a lower premium. The dollar index can go to 100 for all I care, still doesn’t change the fact that silver is in demand, in short supply, and is actually needed for day to day use. And also, the US economy and the usd is still worthless so no worries here.
What’s there to sell? We (should) all be so very deep in the money already to worry about a 3% decline, come on!
the cost of holding paper silver long last night on forex was $16.50 per 500 ounces. They are trying to entice carry traders by giving $16.50 per 500 ounces if you were short too (normally it is $0 for shorting).
Anytime Carlos. Btw, I meant SILVER that cannot be delivered, as that’s where the margins were raised.
I’m doing the same as Nitro, and buying more physical too. This action reminds me of trading internet stocks in ’99…violent shakeouts in a strong trend, of course all weakness reversed in no time and kept blowing the roof off! 🙂
SIL trades like a penny stock. Volume is extremely low…Anyone else not liking SIL?
Silver retraced (fib speaking) the entire rally starting from Fed day.
This is strong (it happened violently in a few hours…and with lots of help from our friends in NY), but not out of the ordinary.
Maybe this rally is over for now. Maybe not.
Gary could present his view of todays silver/gold market…
For those buying, you may be right on as a rise tomorrow would be unexpected, but typical for a raging bull market. However, this could easily be the beginning of a more meaningful dip into a half cycle low or more.
For my money, the low risk buying opportunity will occur at a swing low on the daily charts.
Around the world now smart/rich people are likely calling bullion dealers and placing silver orders in mass. Those dealers often manage/hedge their inventory using silver futures so they would be buying to lock in prices in various ways.
Will the buying put a floor in here? How strong might buying in next 24hrs on this reduced price be? Will there be more selling to overwhelm it? What if people like Sprott or other billionairs jump in and want to load up?
Lotta unknowns. Wild day.
The selloff happened after the pit hours closed at 1:25PM. Maybe the shorts are trying to drive prices lower during periods of lower volume?
What do you suggest wue should do fubsy_cooter ?
If I were a betting man, tomorrow would be another day in the decline area. When silver was up 5%, CNBC was all over it…Fast money was talking about Silver Wheaton, and the CEO from Silver Wheaton was on CNBC today. Silver seems too stretched….anyways my cyrstal ball is at home.
Not to mention the blog’s happy glitter turned into a message of people saying its okay, its okay…third step is despair..imagine will get that soon, if gold and silver head downwards…I think many put on quit a bit of leverage…If the blog is like this, I can only imagine how many margin calls there will be if we really start to head down.
Anyways food for thought. Sorry for the negative outlook for traders, I hope I am wrong…but we are really due for a big fresh correction. But then again we have been due for months now…so don’t trust my timing.
Keys:
Correct sobering thoughts. Anybody long or in danger with their account must ask “what if it goes lower? what are the consequences?” and “what will I do” (preferably BEFORE that even get’s going or you will make things even worse)
Let’s not forget the past three months performance…Nothing goes up forever.
Three months-past performance-
NG 125%
SVM 86%
EXK 82%
SLW 77%
HL 75%
NGD 58%
SIL 58%
SLV 50%
GDXJ 47%
TZ(2006) what is your view for the next days for Silver ? What do you think we are presenting ?
Rule change on the CME . . . hmmm. Wouldn’t it be something to be in a position to pick up the phone and have your guy at the exchange change the rules? I don’t know, but I suspect the market sniffs this one out for what it is – an act of desperation to suppress prices. I hope it goes as smoothly as the Swiss central bank’s FX interventions.
Carlos
I can only speak for myself and my own risk tolerance. I prefer to buy at bottoms. In this case I am looking for a swing reversal above 1315 on Gold. If that occurs I will be adding some SIL.
change in margin requirements does NOT suppress prices of silver or any future for that matter.
It is based on volatility in the market and the brokers/CME/CBOT do not want accounts to blow (owe more than what is in the account).
This is there way to limit AR
So, i see more correctin the next few days?
I recently enter on AGQ so my “!margin” is small. Shall i sell my position to try to buy lower ?
SI moves $5K for every $1 change in silver (200 ticks @ $25/tick). The margins were $6750 which was pretty much taken out intra-day today. Contrast that with the ES which requires a 110 point move to take out your margin. So with rising daily range, the increase in margin requirements was not unexpected.
GC is up more than $10 from the lows and is above the October highs 1388. So things seem to have stabilized a bit.
So Fbusy,
You see more correction the next few days?
I recently enter on AGQ so my “!margin” is small. Shall i sell my position to try to buy lower ?
Jerred & Aviat,
Thanks for the info guys – I’m a bit of a cynic and I don’t trade futures. So I really don’t know WTF I’m talking about. So this kind of change in margin requirements is typical in a rising market?
Of all the approaches discussed here, fubsy’s has the best probability of success. Too much focus on the next 48 hours will do nothing but distract.
@Josh
In a market that is expected to get more volatile. CME raised the margin on TF (Russell 2k futures) from 4k to 5k back in late April
OK. I don’t get it.
I joined Twitter, and I “followed” garysavage1. So what happens now? It looks like I have another page to bookmark and visit. Why not just visit the Smart Money Tracker website and save the step?
OK–If i did this right?
(and that is a big IF for someone so technically challenged) I should receive a text to my cell phone (via twitter) when Gary updates the site. this is convenient for me as I do not normally check the website.
We will see. If it does not work I will just get used to checking the website!!
Gary has said over and over:
A PM bull will do its darndest to buck you off if you’re long.
Furthermore, gold is still well above the “line in the sand” low of 1315.
Gary ,
I dont use Twitter and not crazy about having to check a web site for updates or nightly updates. i’m not going to ask for my money back since I just recently renewed but I’m sure I wont be renewing once it expires for that reason .
Jake
Bede: Here is how Twitter works:
1. You follow Gary on Twitter.
2. When Gary posts an update, you receive it in your tweets section
3. Gary can post updates @ End of Day or an intra day alert.
4. I don’t use twitter – so am not sure if you can forward your tweets to your email or use an RSS feed. Some folks here have suggested there are some programs to forward your tweets to your email
5. Alternatively, you can check the premium website End of Day. Gary has said he would post intra day alerts on the Blog for us to check the premium website.
Heck, whatever is easier for Gary to convey his thoughts works for me. His analysis so far this year has been invaluable and pretty much spot on. I only wish he continues his amazing analysis. While I understand people may not be familiar with Twitter etc. The medium of delivery should be secondary…The analysis and its contents should be primary IMHO!
Nick–
Well Said
G20 threatening currency war—and does gold go down?
zstock7
If today was a “hit” in a bull mkt (which it probably is) then silver should recover a good bit rather quickly. Over night it is already on that path.
Gold didn’t suffer much today and is the dog to watch. Gold said today wasn’t to abnormal. Silver simply was overleveraged, overbought, and ready for a push. Well..they pushed it.
So, if we go much lower than the lows today I will worry about the situation and consider adjusting my main position. For now I’m gonna hold and see how well things stabilize and recover in next 24hrs. It might surprise us.
My stop on gold continues to be about 1370.
I also still have my full position in silver from last week and I tried to add during the decline at three different stages on the way down.
First two were stopped out for losses. The third at the closing lows is still in play. It has a stop right near the lows where it was purchased. The rest of my silver has stops below $26.
I’ve had an epiphany!
Because of today, I’m going to sell my AGQ at the open tomorrow. Then I’m going to have my broker mail me a check to close out my account.
I will cash that check and receive thousands and thousands of Fed Reserve Notes in return!! Such a deal!
What could go wrong? Who needs precious metals? After today, the Fed Reserve Note is CLEARLY the place to be.
Am I wrong, Shalom? ; )
TZ–
Agreed– Gary has even warned about all the (leveraged) talk he was witnessing on the blog. As much as I liked the recent moves they just cannot continue that way ad infinitum. The bull is not tired– (just snickery)
Thanks Nick,
I don’t think I’m going to find Twitter very helpful.
I’m just going to put the premium site in my Bookmark toolbar, and access the daily updates that way.
JOSH,
it can happen in an up market or down market.
they usually base it on the volatility of the contract.
That still doesn’t curtail leverage or trading because those margin requirements are for overnight holds (futures contracts settle each day).
There are brokers that allow you to trade intra day for much less margin (i.e. $500 per contract on the ES, NQ, TF).
If you have any other questions then feel free to ask.
Note that raising margins in futures contracts is a normal part of business for an exchange. The margin is necessary to protect the exchange from default by people taking positions. As the price or volatility of a security rise, you need to require more money “down” to play the game.
The only catch is that ‘da boys’ in NY probably know and have a hand in picking when margins get raised and how much. So they likely had this happen or knew it was coming and further piled onto the short side once the crack was opened up.
Raising margins in a bull market/move *usually* doesn’t end that move unless it was already vulnerable anyway. I’m not too sure silver was vulnerable in the sense of this move being broken. I simply think it might have been overextended.
NOW many of you understand why I was so gunshy for 2 months in trying to get into various metal positions. It’s because of stuff like this. Yeah…it happened now, but a lot of securities looked just as extended back weeks ago and something like today was just as possible.
The next few days become critical in the dollar. I’ll explain in tonight’s report.
And we have a winner!
catbird has decided to place his faith and fortune in my stead. No matter how low the paper goes, I can always make him whole through the power of printing. It’s my only power, but it’s a doozy!
Rickards’ comments on the margin change today:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/11/9_Jim_Rickards_-_Threes_Company,_Silver_Margin_Change.html
Bede:
Twitter is simply a means for Gary to notify subscribers that he’s added something to the subscriber site. This is helpful for those of us who don’t monitor the site throughout the day.
Not a big deal if you only read his updates at end-of-day. But I like to know when he posts in the middle of the day, and Twitter works out great. He posts, he Tweets, I get notified via cell phone, I check the site. Wala! Gary’s happy because he doesn’t have to fight his email provider. I’m happy because I get instant notification of an intraday update.
I really don’t understand what all the hand wringing is about. Gary offers an unbelievable value for the money. I’m glad he’s found a cost effective, acceptable solution to the problem of providing his service with a minimum of hassle to himself.
Gary, what books do you recommend for someone wanting to learn more about cycles? Thanks in advance.
Tudor,
I can see how Tweeter would be useful if it goes to your cell phone. I’m not complaining about the service, but I was wondering how people found Tweeter useful.
Gary has done a lot for me. I won’t be using the service any less than I do now, and I don’t appreciate it any less.
Thanks for your interest.
@BEDE
The way I use twitter is.. I follow someone and have their tweets come to me on my cell phone. You can set that up in your twitter account. Also, you can selectively decide whose tweets you want to receive on your cell phone and whose you dont want. This way if you follow gray and dont want to be bothered with checking a webpage, then follow gary and enable cellphone forwarding for his tweets.
Tudor.
Like I have said a number of times, Gary still needs to send out the password once a week so he needs a trouble-free email “conduit”. And if he does that he might as well send a daily email.
He obviously is not going to send the password over Twitter!
It’s very easy to set up an email platform to send out mass emails either via your own $5.95 domain name or using Yahoogroups.
Regarding the web-page etc., give Gary a break now. He just came back from a tournament where he may have aggravated some injury. He spent hours with Cox to figure out how to send the weekly reports. Right now he just wants to make his life as hassle-free as possible.
I do agree with Frank that the issue of the weekend mail remains, so for the longer term some other solution might work better.
Just received the Tweet for the nightly update!
Twitter. If Gary puts an RSS feed on his website, I THINK I can then get his tweets to my email. You twitter experts, is this correct?
Oil rising again, Silver rising, gold rising, dollar dropping.
So far everything is behaving as though today was one massive coordinated hit that has now been exhausted.
Hope you are right. It looks like it can go either way here. Oil down, gold down, silver down as of right now.