595 thoughts on “Webinar

  1. ddn3f


    I sent in a question yesterday that I guess you sorta answered. I believe that you expect this C wave to move up quickly. Do you expect that in the first daily cycle that Gold will push past its high? Is that the confirmation of higher high to add on your 15% leverage?

  2. ALEX


    One last thing, you probably know this…the media bar on that page also has a volume control on the far left. scroll on it and you can adjust the volume if its too low.

    or maybe its your ‘work settings’ as you said.

  3. ddn3f

    It is definitely the work settings. I do not see a media bar at all. I am guessing it would be right below the “Welcome to the Call Replay” on the right hand side. It’s a nice empty space for me.

    Kinda sucks I still have to work and can’t retire early like Gary.

  4. Poly

    Is the $HUI up against a long term resistance relative to gold? Can it get back into “bull market” valuations relative to gold?


    It’s interesting to see the $HUI still at levels seen at the March 08 and Dec 09 peaks, when gold was trading at some 30% and 10% lower than today.

    But much more startling is the $200 run in gold during Spring 2006, peaking gold at $730. At this peak, the $HUI hit 407, a mere 1.72 the ratio of hold and just 120 points below where it stands today. Since then though, gold has essentially doubled!

    Looking at the long term $GOLD:$HUI, it suggests to me that we still have not shaken off the trauma associated with the PM’s collapse of 2008. At the bottom in 2008, the HUI traded at just 150.

    Is this the run where PM’s get back into favor and break back down below the 2:1 ratio?

  5. Beanie

    I think precious metals are done rising for the time being. At best, it goes sideways. The market is very strong. As it goes higher, there will be less fear-based buying of gold and silver.

  6. DG

    Alex: Covered my FCX when it reclaimed the 50 DMA at 56.32. I do not plan to get out of my China short unless (FXP) unless have to. I may get to do FCX a third time. 🙂 Maybe it’ll drop to 4.16 then.

  7. Gary

    I think you need quicktime on your computer to listen to the recording.

    You can down load quicktime free. Just google it.

  8. DG

    Gary: I assume the later it gets the less likely it is that Gold will drop since we are getting deeper and deeper into the cycle. Is that right? Seems to me that MLMT is running out of time for his expectations to come to pass…?

  9. Gary

    If gold can keep making highs into at least day 12 then the daily cycle will become right translated and the odds will go down significantly the recent low will be violated.

  10. ALEX

    I am guessing it would be right below the “Welcome to the Call Replay” on the right hand side.

    Good guess, thats where it is.

    Corebuilder…doesn’t work on your home p.c.? Does utube or other media websites? Wonder if your ‘settings’ or ‘Parental settings’ could be blocking it?? Maybe someone on here can help you with that.

  11. Gary

    So far gold and the HUI are just forming what looks to be a small bull flag which is what I was expecting (either that or a brief sideways consolidation) after the large move Thursday.

    Silver on the other hand is just continuing to grind higher which is a good sign as it appears to be leading gold again like it did during the last run.

  12. ALEX


    Thanks for the chart…i was also thinking about that ratio…and I think that’s going to change soon , since the HUI and GDX have broken above long term resistance , and basically just retested that break out I.M.O.

  13. DG

    Gary: The website say 1/27 was Day 5, so today is day 12, and gold touched a new high today. Am I getting that right? Feels like i am missing something.

  14. David Kafrick

    The stock market is very, very strong. It keeps ripping through the top of every channel line. Amazing.

    The rise in the stock market since september has been one of the greatest trends I have ever seen. Almost a 30% gain with 4% maximum drawdown. It doesn´t get any better than that.

  15. Gary

    Day 6 if I remember correctly. I will update the cycle charts in a bit. I’m trying to get in a lite workout this afternoon.

    Still really sore from the tournament this weekend.

  16. DG

    Oh, I see, the website cycle count page is wrong. Gary, forgive me, but there isn’t much point posting the cycle count if, when a new low is formed, the page is not updated. I guess I need to check the count myself anyway, though it’d be great to have an accurate count on the website.

  17. ALEX

    I am 60% through the webinar , and at 60% through , Gary is going over why , even though he has been calling a top for SPX for a couple of months…he would NEVER short it.

    Quiz time-

    Who am I thinking of right now??

  18. Gary

    Just updated the cycle charts. They were current up until today and that included gold which I had at day 5 not counting today.

  19. David Kafrick


    Do you have any price projections for the Dollar low?

    I was going through my dollar chart, and based on a confluence of projections I came up with a range between $56-$59. Do you have any opinion about price targets for the dollar or you just work with time projections?

  20. daniele

    alex, sure it’s browser’s fault.Hope david will manage to listen as i’m doing now.It’s not simply for me understand all things gary says…. 🙂

  21. Gary

    Usually bear markets break slightly below prior lows followed by a strong rally. So if I had to guess I would think maybe some where around 68/69.

  22. DG

    Alex, Why did you insist I cover FCX? Oh well, I guess some other short can make some money here. I actually started to place the order to re-short it when it got back down below the 56.30 but didn’t pull the trigger. It’s all your fault! (I’ll curse you out later when I have the time.)

  23. Gary

    If oil can break to new lows I will have to rethink the early bottom and go back to the old cycle count which would be 51 today.

  24. David Kafrick


    Sorry to be asking too many questions, this is the last one 🙂

    Is there a cycle in the dollar bigger than the 3 year cycle? I am asking this because by looking at the monthly chart, it seems that this next bottom in the dollar will be a huge bottom. There is a massive triangle on the monthly chart, and triangles usually precede the last leg on a trend. So could this next 3 year cycle low also be the low of a much larger cycle? for example. a 10 year cycle…


  25. ALEX

    Robert… I MEAN DG (haha)

    My apologies!

    I was seeing that possible cup w/high handle on a 3 day chart

    look at FNSR 3month daily ,or TIBX , since you thought the handle had to slope downward… thats the cup w/handle pop I feared for you (shorting copper)

    Besides , the fat lady , she hasnt sung yet. Its not 4 p.m.

  26. ALEX


    Didnt you just hear what I said about a cup/handle on the 3 day charts ? GDXJ , 3 day chart , cup/handle?? 🙂

    Ahh ,DG , do not short this one, ok?

    Just kidding here…interesting to watch in the last hour , but I am not recommending anything here 🙂

    just messing around.

  27. DG

    Alex: You know I’m kidding, right? You are fun to poke at. Damn thing’s down in the mid 55’s now. Oh well, gratifying to know I can pick ’em at least. If the 50 turns over and it can rally back to it I’ll do it again. Funny calling it “Freeport Copper and Gold” when it’s getting killed and the whole PM complex is up today.

  28. DG

    Alex: I studied O’Neill for a while and I believe the handle really does need to slope down because the weak holders need to be getting out. If memory serves he is very precise about it sloping down and not getting below the 1/2 way point of the cup.

    Meanwhile, go FXP!

  29. ALEX


    Yes, I studied him too , and he does say that , However..Did ya tell that to TIBX, FNSR , JDSU , etc this month?? haha

    The higher handle means stregth and less sellers , I.M.O. On a longer term (6 or 8 months)it is accumulation.

  30. DG

    Pima: Notice the OEXers from the 12:00 to 12:30 post. They bought 1600 puts and 80 calls. Now that’s a statement!…and we died right there. But it’s only good for an entry point or a trade and doesn’t tell us even how we will close.

  31. ALEX


    That was an enjoyable webinar and lots of good reminders.

    One side note: That web page could be misunderstood where it says



    Because it implies a 20% discount in any timeframe ,plus 3 months. EX , someone may sign up for 6 months and think its at 20% off , and for 9 months. (Or is it?)


  32. DG

    Alex: Everything is going up. A malformed handle doesn’t mean it can’t go up, just that it doesn’t fit his pattern. Heck, 95% of what has already gone up sharply does not fit his pattern. It’s just that if you are buying it as a C-with-H, it is more likely to fail if the weak hands have not yet gotten out. Of course if the SPX rockets straight up what difference does it make? What did Buffett say, “It takes the tide going out to see who’s been swimming naked.” (I’m not referring to you, just that in this market patterns are almost irrelevant, and everyone thinks he’s a long-side genius.)

  33. Slumdog

    S&P. From this point forward, imo, there will be a big parabolic sweep up to a climax.

    I posted recently that I disagreed with Gary’s assessement of our reaching an unactionable high in the S&P.

    I said that it looked like there would be a further extension. The marginal rate of increase will now increase.

    This is a blow off high, and it will extend easily into 14000 on the DJIA.

    There are quite a few (still a minority) charts that will show you this same move, historically. So, this is nothing new.

  34. Romeo Bravo

    Robert, give it up man! The more of this type of crap you post, the less sympathy anyone has for you. You made a bad call, it was your call.

    It hurts, anyone who have traded for more than 1 month knows the feeling of being down and probably being down big.

    It’s time to concentrate on rebuilding both your emotions and your capital. Don’t turn into a hater, please!

  35. Gary

    It is still a secular bear market. If your are willing to just sit with your short position it will eventually turn out to be a winning trade. The downside is one might have to weather an even more extended draw down and you could miss the final C-wave advance while waiting shorts to work.

  36. Tim and Jeanene

    I missed it, but why would anyone be net short right now?

    If you are going to take a stab at a short, make sure you have enough long side exposure to at least hedge it off.

    Being net short never really makes sense, ever. The math just not work.

    Robert – instead why not be long PM 100% and short SP 500 the same amount?

    With POMO almost daily until June 11 I think it is – being short is asking for pain.

  37. Haggerty


    Just listened to the audio and I hope your right about this possibly dragging on to 2016 or so.

    I agree with you with 99% of the time. However, where I disagree with you is when you said that “what is gold other then what we say it’s worth”. Thats the attitude we should have for fiat currency’s. Because the end game could be where the world or some country’s go back to a gold standard with or without the US, and maybe not end in a bubble. Gold might end in a fixed value.

    Now I am nervous type of guy so I have physical silver on me and it comforts me to a degree that your not nervous to the degree that you need to have physical metals on you.

    But I think you really need to have a portion in physical just in case. NO?

  38. Gary

    If it starts to look like we are about to enter a hyperinflation then I would buy physical. Obviously we aren’t close to that at the moment.

  39. blammo

    Robert, as an FYI, I only laugh because I have been there. Emotions are a killer when trading. Now you have to fight the urge to get it all back in one or two aggressive trades. The Market will sniff you out and throttle you if you try that.

    There is a conversation that applies to you on Moo’s blog as well:

    “After loosing almost $180k in just 2 days (due to my stupidity), when I tried to
    get everything back, I lost more and then more and kept loosing for next 2 years.
    After that I went back to papertrading, sharpened my skills, found my niche and
    slowly entered the market and build confidence, still building…”

  40. Gary

    The fact is if someone went short with 100% of their portfolio when we got our first selling on strength day at about 1200 they are only down 10%.

    Robert’s irrational outburst isn’t caused by a 10% draw down. It’s very obvious he leveraged huge into what he thought was a sure thing, probably with options that are about to, or have already expired.

    So not only did he not listen to me about shorting he also ignored my warnings about leverage.

    And if I remember right I warned him several times on the blog here that he was taking a huge risk and should reconsider.

    I guess he didn’t take any of my warnings seriously.

  41. TZ(5288)

    2nd day of gold pausing (and pulling back a bit) after thursday’s spike higher. I think the congestion is pretty much over and the lows today will hold.

    I suspect we go higher now tonight and tomorrow.

    (It is actually good that gold didn’t continue running after thursday because it makes it much less likely we retrace back down to these levels once we resume higher.)

  42. Gary

    The simple fact is you thought you were smarter than the market. If you had even just listened to me about leverage you could easily recover all your losses in a couple of days riding the gold bull.

    But you knew more than me about that also. Now you are paying the price for your hubris. It’s time to grow up. You have no one to blame but yourself.

  43. David


    My memory is that Gary never told anyone to go short.

    At several points he cautioned against shorting. Finally, sometime in January, he suggested on the premium site that “those who wish to take a stab at the short side can do so” with a small portion of their equity. He even said this was mainly to keep itchy trigger fingers busy while waiting for the intermediate bottom. At no point was this part of his recommended allocation.

    Where from that do you get that he is responsible for your losses? He was bearish and wrong, but at no point did he instruct subscribers to short. If you’ve been following Gary’s instructions precisely, you should have very little in the way of losses right now.

    I can count dozens of investment bloggers who have been bearish the last few months. Are they responsible for your losses too?

    And by the way, what kind of idiot puts a large portion of their money at risk based on the opinion of some blogger in Las Vegas? If that’s the sole basis on which you made an investment, then you deserve to lose money.

  44. David

    My memory is also that you spent a lot of time on this site back in November/December crowing about your gains, about “chasing good MPLS tail”, fast cars, talking about how rich you were going to be, etc.

    I don’t remember you giving Gary credit for your gains back then. Those were all you, right?

    When you grow up, you should run an investment bank. You have the same mentality: Privatize the gains, socialize the losses.

  45. alysomji

    I just want to chime in to say that I agree with David.

    Gary has been careful not to take any short positions or recommend shorts except if using a small portion of equity with a close stop, and even then only at the very specific points he has mentioned in the daily cycle where shorting might work out (eg. first down day after four or more up days).

    If you listen to the webinar, he mentions for the umpteenth time why he doesn’t short bull markets (cyclical or secular) except perhaps in extremely rare circumstances (such as the Dollar coming out of a 3-year cycle low).

    Gary, some of us do pay attention to what you actually write in your letters each night. Please do not get frustrated by those that don’t (not saying that you are…but just in case).

  46. Rob


    No. I wasn’t going to short UUP. I meant its low volume and rising price as further confirmation that the $USD has little upside, as we wait for it to tank and for precious metals to rally hard….hopefully. 🙂

    Thanks for looking out for me. You da man!

  47. Trader H


    im having trouble trying to listen to the webinar. the link that was provided by tudor doesnt work for me. anybody that can help me?

  48. TZ(5288)

    I think you should change the webinar photo to you either: a) smashing weights around a gym; b) hanging off a vertical cliff with blue sky and a killer drop in the background.

    The vibe of the existing photo is just off. I can’t explain it.

  49. ALEX

    Earlier I asked , are there 2 Roberts?? Because if we just heard from THIS Robert , then it explains A LOT!!

    Robert said…
    I never have touched options, but whenever I think about them or hear about them my eyes grow very large- that is a sign that I should not be using them! 😉
    January 9, 2011 8:00 PM

  50. Razvan

    why would Gary put a photo of himself lifting weights or rock climbing when the presentation is about investing in the markets?
    If anything he should be wearing a gold or silver chain! 🙂

  51. Keys


    I hope you learned from this…Humble pie is not fun…but we have all been there! I have come to think that every person that makes money has been burnt at this point. Eventually our pride gets in the way and we go “all in” too many times. And despite all negatives towards you, we could easily be talking about ourselves at a certain point.

    All the best!

  52. Keys

    I like the idea of Gary with the “yo-yo” bling idea…perhaps put on a sideways hat, with a smirk, crossed arms…Call it Gary’s Gangsta advice…”Going for the Bling”

    Top it off with a backwards peace sign!

  53. Daniel

    I received your twiiter text stating the new report was posted but still only see the weekend report as the latest report on the premium site?
    I refreshed and logged out and back in on my side but still no success?
    Just an FYI!
    Thank you.

  54. tfortrader


    Doc agrees with your idea that the dollar will bottom at the end of this int-cycle in spring, but he also says to keep an “open mind” about the possibility that the dollar will form a int-cycle low at the end of this month followed by another cycle into a low near the end of June. Do you see that as possible?

  55. Gary

    There is the possibility of one more intermediate cycle before a final bottom. I tend to think it would be more likely to bottom in the late fall. That does tend to be when we get these currency crisis.

    Plus the last yearly cycle low came in Nov. If the next cycle were to manage to stretch another year then we would expect the bottom next Nov.

  56. catbird


    Good grief…even for TK that sounded unbelievable, so I had to check it out myself. He thinks the PMs are darn near the most flawed market in the world. :facepalm:

    Quoth Tim: “I seriously think that GLD, SLV, and GDX are all poised for meaningful drops. The equity indexes are all still annoyingly, agonizingly, irritatingly strong. But metals………they’re bear-ready.”

    Makes me want to get on the horn to my broker and borrow some leverage in the A.M.

  57. Rebecca

    Hi Gary,

    You mentioned that you don’t see hyperinflation happening any time soon. Can you explain why you have come to this conclusion? Under what circumstances do you think hyperinflation will occur. How do you spot the onset of hyperinflation? Thanks much in advance for the insights.

  58. Brian

    What in the world is going on here. All these posts about Robert being short and why he shouldn’t be, but zero posts from Robert? Have you all gone nuts? What happened to gold and silver?

  59. ALEX


    check the previous comment page for this morning before ‘webinar’ under ‘summer break’

    look around posts time stamped 7.30 a.m.

    Robert kind of got on here and went off hard …f-bombs and all.

  60. Brian

    Thanks Alex, I saw what was coming with him a couple months ago. He mentioned last month that he quit drinking. I think that experience was short lived…….

  61. David

    The reason you don’t see any posts from Robert is that he leaves a post, then deletes it as soon as Gary reads it.

    The gist of his posts is: I lost money shorting the market, and it’s Gary’s fault. *sniff*

  62. TZ(5288)

    Money never sleeps, but I guess most of you guys do.

    Swing high in dollar. Metals rockin.

    I’m keepin all the money for myself till you clowns wake up

  63. mylifemytrade

    So today is your day when gold will open around 1361 and screw those who shorted 1361 intra-day spike last week.. Very likely we will sell off from there..

    I expect ES (SPX futures) to do the same… by opening around 1318.25… or at least higher than 1316.. go to 1318.25 and then sell off…

    I expect that we will be back to near the opening levels or highs of the day by EOD…

  64. David Kafrick


    Cycles are only good for spotting bottoms, but pretty much worthless for tops, right? But I was just thinking in tthe case of the Dollar index, the tops will always coincide with the bottoms in the EURUSD. Which means that if there is any consistency to the cycles in the EURUSD, than there should also be cycles which refer to the tops in the dollar index. Have you ever tried counting cycles in the EURUSD pair? Do you know of anyone that does that? It could really help in trying to time the tops in the dollar index.

  65. Jayhawk91

    I’ve been following that wynter-benton stuff on JPM/Comex hedge fund-March delivery Catbird. Go to JPM’s board on Yahoo and the poster there is wynter-benton. It’s certainly entertaining if nothing else! She said several weeks ago Feb 8th was the day this would start going down, so I find today’s spike up kind of interesting.

    She just posted this-

    “It was The Leader who took silver up in the middle of the night only to allow Blythe to think that she trapped us with that China interest rate hike.

    It was our group who leaked the China interest rate hike story before it was even announced. Blythe fell for the trap and shorted like crazy.

    Now witness the destruction of Blythe and The Morgue itself.”

  66. sophia

    Guys, if you need me to be a contrary indicator, I am happy to help you!! Ah ah…
    I followed Gary’s advice and bought Gold at 1349.3 yesterday. Just sold back at 1363 ( I know Gary, you are going to tell me NOT to do that, but I feel more confortable and I can sleep better…).
    Thanks for your help thou, I am learning…

  67. Gary

    Only at a final intermediate bottom will the selling pressure become heavy enough to affect miners. They can easily ignore a stock market correction for the first 3/4 of the move.

  68. Gary

    Scalping these little wiggles is the recipe for losing money.

    If all you do is take little profits then sooner or later you will get caught in a daily cycle correction and all those little profits will go up in smoke. And if you are the nervous type then you will end up selling at the bottom of the correction.

    You need to put your money in physical so you can have a chance to profit from this bull. You are obviously not emotional suited to ride the bull in a trading account.

  69. ALEX

    Bought 5000 more cxz at the open..

    Chart looks great , higher than normal volume. Appears to be forming reverse head & shoulders with volume on the upside.

  70. DG

    Sophia: The problem is that if you only ever take small gains one bad mistake and you’ll be in the hole. If you have to take 5 gains to make up for each for each loss you have to be right over 80% of the time to just break even! How about this instead: once you have a gain of any size you have some room before getting back to even. YOu had $15 an ounce room in gold. Why not hold it until either even or Gary says “time to sell?” You ought to be able to sleep when you are ahead. If gold gaps down $15/ounce the next day you get out without loss. It’s not about “learning” it’s about not constantly giving in to your emotions. If you can’t at least partially master your emotions you may well lose a lot of money at this game.

  71. sophia

    Maybe, maybe not…I don’t know so many traders that are emotionALLY suited for anything….
    I will not ride the whole bull, but I didn’t join your blog for that…I like the discussion and I like extracting $25.000 here and there…

  72. Steven

    Why are the PMs going up on the China Rate Hike? Was it less than expected or are they letting their currency actually appreciate a little at the same time. Any thoughts?

  73. Sandy


    Once again a great call on entry point.

    Is everybody all in or are people still adding at these levels.

    I am 90 % invested and have final 10 % left to invest, trying to decide when to go in.

  74. Gary

    Because it’s a bull market. The intermediate profit taking correction is probably over, and the dollar is beginning a currency crisis.

  75. ALEX


    RBY is back to where I sold it the first time 🙂

    I bought some lower , but it just goes to show you that the Bull does correct itself once it gets going


    Silver just broke out to the upside and I imagine GOLD WILL FOLLOW…that WILL FORCE mlmt TO CHANGE HIS PLAN. (HOPE HE’S NOT PILING ON THE SHORTS 🙂

  76. Fergie

    Hey big guy,
    Great webinar! Been checked out getting settled into the new water view home (courtesy of 2010). The silence is most welcome to tune out some of the angst about the latest squiggles.

  77. DG

    Alex: Would you consider breaking your caps key for me? How about for $5? BTW, I slightly overslept this morning (I’m in CA) and missed re-shorting FCX. Damn. By 9:35 it was down for the day already.

  78. Gary

    I’m still planning on coming up to see this spectacular place…and collect a burrito or two.

    I’ll wait till it warms up though 🙂

  79. Fergie

    I have to buy Hacienda 2 first! House hunting early summer when the D starts. I was starting to think I would have to settle for a pimped out RV. Thankfully, it looks like the elusive C wave is here. Hallelujah!

  80. ALEX


    I have considered breaking my left pinky, since this seems to be the ROOT of the problem! 🙂

    Was it oversleep or over indulgence of California veno?

  81. Gary

    Gaps in ultra funds don’t always fill. The gap in GLD might though.

    If one wanted to add my suggestion is to set a trade trigger to buy when GLD touches the 10 DMA. Then reset it every morning as the MA rises.

  82. Onlooker

    A gap on AGQ is really meaningless, as is a gap on the GLD & SLV charts, as has been discussed here before.

    It’s truly a 24 hr market for the PMs (amongst other things) so these instruments that only trade during U.S. market hours are going to have gaps quite often as they “catch up” to the world market’s progress from the previous U.S. market close.

    The same could be said for the miners, in large part, because they tend to follow the the PMs, of course.

  83. Rob

    Why are people still trading in and out of stocks? The swing-low was a week or so ago. Wasn’t that the time to get in and hold until the next swing-high? If you bought in at the latest swing low, you already made 10% – that’s my paper profit, so far.

  84. fat boy

    so how come the disparity in move on agq compared to slw gdxj sil etc

    i am 100 in now last %10 this morning i should have jumped all in when gary said but shy after blip call last month

    so how about leverage entry team – when?

  85. Benjamin

    right… so gaps from 24h instruments are a bit different than normal stock gaps, ha? I suspected that but I never heard or read anything about it so far… thanks!

  86. Haggerty

    As the dollar starts fall through the 76 level , I think everyone will turn to stocks for protection, and I think that’s when we start to get the correction. In recent past they trade inversely but I think they will go down hand in hand and screw the average poor working slob like myself who otherwise would not know any better. Just being cynical let’s see what happens.

  87. DG

    Haggerty: My two cents—-Interesting thought, but are you sure you are not just rationalizing your short position? One can always find ten good reasons to be bullish and ten good reasons to be bearish. Focusing on the ones that agree with a losing position is dangerous. Maybe focus on the bullish side of the argument until you get scared enough to cover more 😉

  88. Romeo Bravo

    I wonder when the new media will catch on to the falling dollar story. They are talking inflation of course, higher gas, higher commods (mostly through the filter of the rest of the world.) But when our own currency starts to crack, I can’t imagine they would ignore it.

    That will provoke some kind of reaction from John/Jane investors, hopefully pumping our beloved PMs, of course! However, there will most likely be a general market reaction. Haggerty, you may be right, even with the dollar falling stocks may start to fall with them?

  89. Gary

    FWIW Jim Rogers is also short tech stocks. But then Rogers doesn’t try to time perfect entries. When he see’s something extremely extended he takes his position and then sits with it.

    I suspect by this summer any shorts will be huge winners. The question is can bears have the fortitude to sit with their position that long? Can the weather the draw down while waiting for it to work? And can they accept missing a big run in precious metals while waiting for their short to work?

  90. Haggerty


    I was thinking about saving what I have left but at this point I am willing to lose it all. Believe me it hurts cause I am “small time” but it’s not enough where I need to leave the table. I just think with the way we jumped back in to PM’s a couple of weeks ago and got stopped out the same day and how things are just not following the “NORM”.

    This is just pure speculation not betting the house on it, just willing to lose what I have pretty much lost anyway.

  91. Gary

    We should see stocks start to fall when inflation spikes high enough to damage discretionary spending. That seemed to be a little above $100 oil last time.

  92. DG

    Haggerty: Sorry to hear it. The lessons are much cheaper when you have little at stake, but the pain is just as real and can be a great motivator to figure out what you did wrong and then SWEAR to yourself you won’t do it again. Eventually you will make every realistic mistake and then you can really start making some money! Hang in there and learn. (If I may…take Gary’s comment to heart about not shorting bull markets. Trying to pick a top in a bull market is VERY difficult and rarely worth the effort and losses that come with it).

  93. pimaCanyon

    1373 on the April gold futures would put gold at the top of the new uptrending channel. I suspect we’ll get a reaction there, but who knows–could be just a sideways thing to let the channel line continue to move up.

    I still have a bit I want to add, maybe 15 percent of my account. Waiting for final confirmations that the IT low was the real deal. Right translated daily cycle would probably do it, but if I wait that long, should probably just wait for the daily cycle to bottom (even though it will likely be at a higher price than where we are today!)

  94. Todd

    Hi Gary,
    I am wondering why SIL seems to be underperforming. Many of it’s top holdings are significantly up more than the ETF. Any thoughts?

  95. DG

    I saw some clip of Rogers somewhere just recently and he said that he had not been short anything for a long time, but was now short tech (and something else that escapes me). But he is a lousy short-term timer as Gary said, but he is patient when he knows he’s right.

  96. Haggerty


    Your right. I did listen to Gary in a way because my position would have been much larger so I toned down the trade at the beginning. Thank God.

    I have now written off that trade but still hold it. I think there are more curveballs to come. Just when guys like Gary who are right a majority of the time think maybe we are in a runaway move in stocks and everyone thinks that the market will stay afloat or move up because of the dollar falling that’s when it will catch the majority on the wrong side of the trade.

    From now on I’m just going to follow Gary to the T. I am now very heavy in AGQ and going to just wait for this to run it’s course and then get out at the D wave.

    BTW DG, Gary, ETC, thanks for your input and time. I know it’s valuable

  97. Josh

    Jerred (or other profilers)

    Are we getting a trend day today? Open drive out of range,IB is narrow, but I’m not seeing confident range extension to really tip it over to the upside, seems more like tiptoeing.

    Clue me in.

  98. Gary

    Rogers was not short the market in early 2010. He wasn’t short anything from Nov. 08 till just recently because he understood the effect of QE.

  99. Poly

    You have to understand that these ETF’s simply hold positions in mining companies and therefore they have an easily determined NAV. You could expect a small premium to NAV, but beyond that, SIL should perform to the extent it’s equity holdings perform.

    As for SIL, it’s not the best vehicle in my opinion, because more than 50% of assets are invested in big cap silver, so they wont move like the juniors.

    See here:

    If you want exposure to Juniors, just stick with GDXJ, it has a very broad spectrum of miners and contrary to what the name suggests, has very high exposure to Silver miners.

  100. Jayhawk91

    Rogers was interviewed last week on CNBC and said he was short a little a little, but continues to be massively long commodities.


    Not surprisingly, Rogers see oil at $150, and the exchange between Rogers and some CNBC guy discussing the role of speculators (it is all the evil speculators’ fault, never the Chairsaint) is worth watching the clip alone.

    Rogers’ response to CNBC’s desperate attempt to get him to list a stock or two for the lemmings to buy into, the response is priceless: “Commodities have outperformed stock by 10 times over the last 10-12 years. Why aren’t you doing only commodities. It’s outperformed stocks by 1,000%. To me it’s pretty simple, you should change the name to CommoditiesNBC.”

    And, finally, his response to what his stock exposure is is not what CNBC wanted to hear. “I am short emerging markets ETFs, short Nasdaq ETFs.”

  101. Jerred


    You are starting to sound like a pro!!

    great read so far. The most important part is the homework you did yesterday after the close.

    what was your hypothesis for today (long, short, or fade the moves)?

    what are the areas to do business?

    Tight IB with little extension probably sets up for a small trend day.

    long and lovin it

  102. jabalong

    I was under a vague impression that around its launch GDXJ was estimated to be something like 80:20 in terms of gold:silver mining exposure. Maybe this was wrong. Anyone have any idea what the breakdown would be today?

  103. pimaCanyon

    Silver has an interesting long term channel on the daily. The recent low tagged the mid-channel line and it now looks like Silver is headed back to the top of that channel which is at 33.20 today, 33.49 by 2/15. Maybe it tags that channel line in the next few days as it makes a daily cycle top.

  104. ALEX


    My best performer today and this week is a rare earth miner…AVL. ( thought of swapping for a junior, but Strong volume looks likely to run to the top and possibly break).

    but my best junior miners are also


    CXZ ,


    AXU , (25%)

    EXK (30% already since buy on Jan 25

    SLW (15%) 🙁

    The juniors are shining nicely-if this is just a start , Final C-Wave looks scary good!

    Bought GPL today, dont care if it pulls back , I’ll buy more. Look at todays volume at the top (1/2 day so far).

  105. Josh


    I’m seeing the gap from Jan 4 overhead and I don’t think we’ve got the conviction to close it today.

    That would make me a seller on a rejected attempt to close it up this afternoon at around 29.64 on SLV. I don’t see how you buy today. The auctions are so tight.

    I’d also be tempted to take some profits if the 12:48 auction fails.

    Tell me where else to look. Or where my process is wrong here.

  106. Elaine

    Catbird, Shalom,

    I was the one that asked Gary about NUGT. It is in Abagil’s portfolio at Peak Theories.

    It is a pretty small fund at this point. Gary recommended DGP, although it is not moving as much as NUGT.


  107. Fung


    Need a bit of advice here.

    I am leveraged 2x on AGQ. Average price is $131.

    Should I stay put or take some profits off the table today?


  108. fubsy_cooter

    These bull flags have been money lately. Nice odds on bet for decent entries.

    Unfortunately, I waited one day too long…oops. Had to buy the short term breakout instead.

    Nice day we’re having. If this turns out to be the beginning of an intermediate move, this could turn out to be a great year.

  109. Gary

    Folks if you want beta it’s pretty hard to beat AGQ.

    You are on the verge of moving to strong hand status in a move that should last 12 to 15 weeks. It’s week two. Why would you sell? Just put a stop at $131 and let it ride to the end of the C-wave. Instead of walking away with pennies you will walk away with a small fortune.

    This is the mistake that almost all inexperienced traders make. They are worried about giving any thing back so they take small profits and in return leave a huge fortune on the table.

  110. T.J. Rand


    Go back and read the comment streams on the past few posts – pick out Gary’s comments, and you’ll find out the answer.

    If you are not a subscriber, you should be – this is the most useful subscription I have had (and I’ve had a number).

  111. Ben

    Gary, you would have made a great kindergarten teacher, because you have (seemingly) infinite patience in repeating the same things over and over.

    And we need to hear them. Thanks for the podcast yesterday, and thanks for reiterating what needs to be said. I need to hear much of that at times — it *is* easy to be lured over to the dark side of thinking there are slam dunk opportunities when vigilance must be maintained and hubris left in check.

    I also appreciate the commentary and cycle info on equities and oil. A couple of my 401k type plans have few options. Just “on” and “off” and with one of them, “off” has paid exactly 0.000% for the past year.

  112. Jayhawk91

    Yes, Rogers is most like 80-90% long commodities and shorts with a tiny amt of his money. I also see he trades intermediate stuff like currencies, etc. Hard to argue with his philosophy. He loves SILVER over gold BTW.

  113. Gary

    No stops. It’s too late in the intermediate cycle to stop out now.

    If we were to get one more move down it would be an ending move and not worth stopping out to maybe get in $10 or $15 lower if you were lucky.

  114. Beanie

    I’m pretty confident a mega tech (green energy and internet part deux) mega boom is coming, that will last until the end of this decade. Not sure how that would affect commodities. Do they go together, or will commods be left behind (sideways action for the remainder of the decade)?

  115. Steven


    How long will the recording of Sunday’s call be available? Also, is there a way to download it so we can keep it?


  116. whitebear


    Thanks for sharing much of your time and energy here…

    Question: Do you foresee property values and real estate stocks to rise in the face of this inflation?

  117. Gary

    Bubbles never come back. It’s been 10 years now and the Nasdaq is still half what it was in 2000. In inflation adjusted terms much less.

    Don’t hold your breath hoping for a real estate rebound.

  118. Beanie


    The market could triple from here and Rogers will be ok because I don’t think he’s shorting huge. I think he’s on air to pump down the market..

  119. Razvan

    if you want to talk about things that are undervalued then real estate is definitely undervalued especially in certain areas that were hit the hardest when the bubble burst.

    You can buy a house in south florida for $100k with a pool in a decent neighborhood. Just to build the pool will cost you $25k. The prices might have gone down but the cost of raw materials and the construction cost is about the same, maybe a bit less.

    I dont know how long it will take for the excess supply of homes to clear but when it does..watch out! the prices should skyrocket. I bought a house in 2009 and i only wish i had more cash to buy a shitload of apartment around a university somewhere so i can rent them out.

  120. DG

    SB: Yeah, Grantham and Rogers both caught the lows and now both think stocks are way overvalued…but what do they know?

  121. ddn3f


    I was thinking the same thing as you about silver vs the miners. But also gold vs silver. Silver was very strong today. Would love to hear some thoughts.

  122. DG

    Raz: I agree with you that houses are undervalued in a sense, but usually once a bubble bursts the recovery takes forever, and the snapback, even of the compression bottom, is weaker than one would expect. It is going to be a long time before housing is a good investment again, IMO. A whole generation just got destroyed playing Real Estate Mogul.

  123. DG

    David K. I have always liked your posts, and really can’t argue. At this point I am in the “who the hell knows” camp. So many things I have relied on for years have meant nothing, I have to believe the Fed’s fiddling is in play, and if that’s the case, how high is up? Glad I can put my heart into PM’s because I sure the hell can’t buy stocks here.

  124. Shalom Bernanke

    Miners also outperformed the metals when this latest move higher began. I don’t think it tells us anything particularly useful, other than maybe they’re due for a breather.

    I hope miners pull back for a day or two so I can add.

  125. AGQ

    I own a couple rental properties. I can tell you this is not the time to get into property investment. There is a ton of supply. Dog eat dog competition to undercut rent to fight for good renters. Wait a few years and you will get a better price.

    I am waiting to buy another property but the numbers don’t work out if you calculate declining market rent price, property taxes and fees, maintenance fees, etc. Also, there is a glut of potential renters with horrible credit. Very difficult to find someone with decent credit. You can go months with vacancies cutting rent until you find someone decent. Worst thing you can do is if you get a bad renter who knows the eviction rules. Out here in cali, very difficult to evict someone which will last months + lawyer fees. Huge headache.

  126. Shalom Bernanke

    “I might just re-jigger my portfolioa little to include some NUGT. Very impressive.”-catbird

    I still have funds to invest, and will keep an eye on NUG-T as well. being it’s a 2x fund though, I’ll only buy it into a relatively sharp selloff if we get one.

  127. TommyD

    That was an interesting post about the JPM board. That person is either a great story teller or…

    thank you for the Webinar. I sent the link to my son who is getting the calling to learn the stock market. He saw the movie Wall Street and loved it.

  128. Gary

    The HUI has broken through resistance at 530. The next resistance level is at 548 and the 50 DMA. Breaking that will reverse the pattern of lower lows and lower highs.

    I really don’t know what you are talking about miners underperforming. Even the gold:xau ratio is dropping which is a sign that the miners are out performing.

  129. David Kafrick


    In my heart I have a lot of difficulty believing this particular analysis that I came up with, but things that I have been using for quite some time to trade the ES and YM tells me there is a high probability of it happening. I will probably just keep playing the long side with a shorter time frame, getting in and out, because unfortunately I don´t have the courage right now to just buy and hold the stock market.

  130. DG

    SLV just ticked through MLMT’s spot (29.64) where he said he’d be proven wrong. He has had a few very good calls so I have been watching for it and now his scenario is off the table.

  131. notGreedIsGood


    in last night’s report, you expected a pull back to the 10 day MA, for gold to shake people out. Seeing today’s price action, do you expect this to pan out?

    when do you plan to add more leverage?


  132. Gary

    I’ve already added the first level of leverage on the slight pullback as I said I would. The last layer will come when the HUI reverses the pattern of lower lows and lower highs.

  133. Fergie

    You keep mentioning the 10 day MA. For the newbies, you may want to spoon feed the targets for gold, silver and HUI in tonight’s newsletter. Maybe that’d reduce the wig out factor when there’s a pullback? Just a suggestion.

  134. Wes

    In an effort to stop this relentless stock market surge, I have purchased a few June 61 calls for $1.

    Otherwise I’m out of the stock market right now.

  135. Wes

    Jim Cramer brought up an interesting point that I hadn’t considered.

    He made the point that a great many people are in bonds because of the perceived safety. He thinks an “out of bonds” move could also be an “into PMs” move to preserve the safety aspect.

    In any event, I’m in PMs now, thanks to Gary, all AGQ.

  136. Romeo Bravo

    Wow, like the Fall of 2008 in reverse! The market never goes down. If this is the “end” of the rally (at some point) an amazing graphical bookend of Fall/Winter 2008 and Winter/Spring 2011!

  137. T.J. Rand

    Brian Kelly on CNBC just opined that Gold is “at the tail end of the bull market.” Sounds like all the investment ‘professionals’ are still coming to grips with PM’s.

  138. ALEX

    Someone said they followed me into REE last week (Brian or Steve…always mix you guys up…sorry)

    Anyways, REE and AVL and MCP are the same as far as being rare earth minerals…their charts look the same .

    FWIW: __Today AVL burst up 13% with strong volume ,so if you’re still in REE, It would be interesting to see if it MAY do the same. It was up nicely today too.

  139. AGQ


    I got in REE with your call. I sold half today and plan to buy back if there is a pullback. Thanks. This one has been one of my best gainers this week.

  140. DG

    Wes: That was the gap. He had said earlier that trading through would negate it, and we did trade through, but he may want to adjust his previous statement because it was so close. I believe he thinks the gap is a big deal.

  141. Brian

    Alex, All those Rare Earth’s are carving near text book cup bases. Not sure why anybody would have sold today. Nice volume increases as they rise up the right side.

    I am just holding the only one I could find that had an operating mine. TASXF

  142. Natanarchist

    good call MLMT and jerred/Josh..you guys all called that to the penny on SLV. ..so do we just keep going higher or is a pullback in the works? I still have about 30-35% of my capital to work with. I don’t day trade so I don’t worry too much about daily wiggles, but if I can get a better price later this week I will wait rather than chase this move higher. I should have put it all in last week, but…haha..at least everything I have is up. One more big purchase and then I can go back to twiddling my thumbs until the G man thinks the C wave is topping..hopefully around June. The I will buy him burrito’s at Frank $ Fina’s late June when I go to Vegas again.

  143. blammo

    High volume on AVL at the end of day. Someone might have got lucky with their stink bids. Looks like it printed 4.80 at the close.

  144. Brian

    This just out.

    TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Marketwire – Feb. 8, 2011) – Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AVL:$7.7300,$0.8800,12.85%) (“Avalon” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that, following the signing of the Negotiation Agreement with the Yellowknives Dene First Nation (News Release No. 10-27 December 8, 2010), Avalon has now entered into a similar agreement with the Deninu K’ue First Nation (“Deninu K’ue”) regarding the development of the Nechalacho rare earth elements deposit Thor Lake, NWT (the “Project”).

  145. Gary

    At some point gold will tag the 10. It will do it many times during this run. It may end up being higher than today’s close but it should be a decent entry at the time.

  146. mylifemytrade

    I am same as MLMT.. Some stuff blocked at work.. thats why different emails to log in… thats all..

    Ok.. Every big intermediate down move starts with a large gap down (Jan 4th on SLV).. After the first leg down.. there is a good chance we go revisit the opening level of the big gap down day.. That day the open was 29.61.. next second we made high of 29.64 and then down… Today we closed at 29.65 –> anyone who was holding IT short positions with a stop one tick above has been stopped out…

    I expect the downside move to start tomorrow in full earnest.. Gold satisfied the minimal requirement of closing around 1361 (in fact it did better by gapping over that level and staying there all day to suck in buyers).

    Next leg down starts tomorrow IMO.

  147. mylifemytrade


    Think about it: what will the market achieve by “bulling right over” the Jan 4th gap on SLV?

    Now think.. why did the price on SLV close today at 29.65 (0.01 above the highs of that day).

  148. Mark

    Good call on the Rare Earths Alex. I’ve been in several RE issues since late 2009, including those mentioned. You might also consider QRM.V and TSM.V on pullbacks, both have strong charts and a long ways to go, IMHO.

  149. Shalom Bernanke

    Thanks for the report on SVM, Brian. I thought earnings were tomorrow, but glad it’s good news.

    Lots of miners report in late February through March. I wonder if positive surprises are the catalyst to get jam this C-wave much higher?

    So far, it doesn’t look like I’ll get the pullback to add remaining 40% sitting in cash. 🙂

  150. Gary

    I’ll say this. With a Blees rating on the COT for gold at 100 and 27 weeks into an intermediate cycle one would have to be crazy to trust chart patterns over cycles and the COT.

  151. Brian

    MLMT, I don’t think many folks pay much attention to that level. Good theory, but we were beginning an intermediate cycle low at the time.

    As TZ has tried to explain often, slv and gld have gaps that don’t show up on futures chart. Silver has been up 8 straight days, so a pullback would seem inevitable, but I would more expect it after the breakout.

  152. Jayhawk

    Nicely in the green for the year despite that 12K haircut with the January fake out move.

    Avatar changed to the Silver Surfer to remind me not to jump off the wave too early. 😉

  153. Shalom Bernanke

    Congrats Jay.

    From the SVM report, I have to like this:

    ” Achieved total production cost of negative $5.93 per ounce of silver and
    a cash cost of negative $7.13 per ounce of silver, maintaining
    Silvercorp’s position as the lowest cost silver producer among its
    industry peers;”

    Apologies for the poor copy/paste, but that’s how it came out.

  154. Josh


    I hope you find a better entry price in the near future. I have no idea where we go from here. I’m trying to learn this game without wrecking my net worth, so I’m almost certainly a fade at this point.

    I did close out this afternoon – so now I’m chasing again right along with ya.

    Great Day!

  155. Wes


    January 4th was a Tuesday so that’s not a real gap, just the difference between the close on the 3rd and the open on the 4th.

    I think you’re overreading this.

  156. Poly

    Gary, agree with you, but even looking at the chart patterns I see nothing but solid “confirmations” and the down trends broken.
    It’s been a solid advance off those lows and Silver is back into that “zone mode” we witnessed in Sep-Oct

  157. Gary

    At the beginning of an intermediate rally the gains are very large. Novice traders seeing those big gains and worried about giving anything back make the mistake of selling.

    Then here’s the pattern that follows. They don’t get the pullback they were hoping for. They wait a day or two and finally panic back into the market. That’s about the time a short term pullback happens.

    Now their new position is in the red and they are giving back those initial gains. If the pullback lasts more then a day or if they are heavily leveraged they often freakout and sell for a loss.

    Then of course that’s right when the bull surges higher again. As most of you have probably noticed by now usually a big part of the surge comes premarket so one is locked out of the trade until the open.

    Then you end up buying high again and immediately get hit with another drawdown.

    This is how inexperienced traders end up losing money in a powerful rally.

    If you are lucky enough to get in close to an intermediate bottom, stay in, so you don’t get caught in this buy high sell low destructive pattern.

  158. ALEX


    Wow-co-incidence…I sold 1000 shares of REE today too (still have 1000),and regret it after the day ended with AVL up that much. 🙁
    their charts are almost exactly the same…

    I’m glad you got in when you did, REE and AVL have been my best gainers too!

  159. ALEX


    TASXF…I’ll look into it. I was told the only one near production is MCP.

    I sold 1/2 mine , because I got it at the gap near $12 and wanted to buy more AG on a pullback. May not have been the best move, but still good gains on that. Yes,I agree about the textbook cup/handle.

    oh.looking at TASXF…Good run,but the light volume is noteworthy (66,000 today).I’ll put on my watch list tho…thx

    AVL is roughly thes ame price range, good volume.

  160. David Kafrick

    For those that like to trade the grains, I think Sugar no.11 is setting up an awesome buying opportunity. Between 30 and 30.50 is a great buying spot IMO. I think it could easily go to 60-65 in less than a year.

  161. TZ(5288)


    >TZ is noticeably quite today. If he is still levered 5x he should at least be able to cover rent this month.

    I’m 7x.

    Was up late. Slept in. Splurged on lunch for $20. Went back to sleep.
    Rough times.

  162. Natanarchist

    I hear ya Gary. I learned those mistakes few years ago. haven’t made them since. hey, if I have to enter at higher price for the last 1/3 rd of my capital and it goes down for a few days or even a week or two that will be ok. (bull market corrects those mistakes) My “old turkey” core is so solidly in the green that PM’s would have to drop substantially, like a D wave, for me to get freaked out.

  163. Razvan

    “I can tell you this is not the time to get into property investment. “

    I disagree completely! I dont know what your circumstance is and where you live but in south florida this is the perfect time to go into the real estate market. I am a big believer in real estate. I like doing home remodeling and taking care of properties so i dont mind waiting 20 years to reap the rewards.

    The property i bought was tore down to the cinder block and rebuilt with only the best materials. I did all the work myself so it didnt cost me any labor. Within 4 days of putting the house for rent i had 2 offers already.

    All together i spent 140k on the house which i now rent for 1500 a month. Bottom line is 1100 a month which ads up to 13k a year profit. That is almost 10% return on investment without having to take on any risk.

    I only wish i had enough money to buy more.

  164. Rob

    I’m confused. Aren’t we in the 2nd week of the intermediate cycle?

    Gary said…

    “I’ll say this. With a Blees rating on the COT for gold at 100 and 27 weeks into an intermediate cycle one would have to be crazy to trust chart patterns over cycles and the COT.”

  165. Gary

    This is a blogger issue and nothing I have any control over. It’s been sending me multiple notifications of the same comments over and over all day.

    danm blogger is so frustrating sometimes.

  166. Gary

    yes we are. or at least the signs say we are.

    I was referring to the calls for another leg down. If that were to happen then it would turn this into week 27. That’s already stretched so the odds are low we will get another leg down especially with that 100 Blees rating.

  167. TZ(5288)


    It occurrs to me that so many people ask you about cycles books and you have so little to respond with that there is likely an opportunity if you would like to write one yourself.

    Why not set the standard?

  168. pimaCanyon


    My TOS screen shows a close of 11.78 for SVM, and a current bid/ask (AH trading) of 11.92/11.99.

    So it’s up AH, but not a whole lot.

    It made an AH high of 12.05 earlier this evening

  169. Clarkatroid

    hi gary

    great webinar btw & free burritos in the uk also if your ever in england ;P

    im only 50% invested. Is it too late to add positions given the gains over the last 7 days?

  170. TZ(5288)


    I would suggest that blogger is not inherently broken. That doesn’t make sense.

    Each blog uses a template to run, organize, and manipulate the page and behavior. It is much more likely that blogger is fine, but you are using a busted template with errors.

  171. Gary

    I am including a plan for adding exposure in tonight report.

    FWIW If gold goes to 1600-1800 do you think it’s too late?

  172. Josh

    Nat, SB, Gary,
    I closed out today because I needed a minute to clear my head, which I personally can do better with no book. I also want to get a look at the early structure tomorrow to try to gauge conviction before I recommit capital.

    I hope I don’t see it blast higher without me, but if it does I can live with that. What I can’t live with is going into the overnight fully committed with no confidence in my plan.

    It would be nice to hold as confidently as you guys do, but I think that only comes with experience.

  173. Poly

    Lot of new faces, congrats Gary.
    Got to say people, just love the way that gold chart is forming!

    The V off that “intermediate bottom” is impressive and we have confirmation of the trend broken.

    Another move higher tomorrow up to $1,373 should complete the V and tag the 50dma to end an impressive run up.

    From there i guess we pull back for 2-3 days, form a flag, touch the 10dma possibly and then we could be off to the races.

  174. Gary

    LOL, I’m more busy than I want as it is. I’m going to pass on any book deals. There is a fairly detailed explanation of how I use cycles in the terminology doc.

  175. Gary

    Are you heavily leveraged?
    I ask because that would explain your nervousness to hold a position. You are afraid of a margin call on any wiggle down.

    If you are leverage I suggest getting rid of a big chuck of that leverage and I bet you will think just fine again.

  176. Josh

    Nope, no leverage. I hear you loud and clear on that one and toe the line.

    If anything, I’m probably just trading too much size for my skill and confidence level.

  177. Gary

    If that’s not the case then just set a stop at your break even point and let the trade run.

    Trust me you will be kicking yourself if you leave a fortune on the table because you made a rookie mistake and didn’t let your profits run.

  178. Redwine


    I agree on RE as long as it’s with borrowed money. Just can’t see placing that much cash in a losing asset when we’ve got a perfectly good bull market in PM.

    I know conventional wisdom is to pay down all your debt but, as is often the case with CW, the opposite is true.

    If we get some heavy inflation any debt will be wiped out, leaving you with free RE. It’s what happened in the seventies/eighties with high inflation and it’s all tax free income that way, especially if you work the RE angles such as 1031 exchanges, refinancings, and interest income deduction.

  179. K

    Your comments from 2:48PM today are starkly different from what you have posted before that gold creeps from intermediate low as the traders and investors are very tentative to buy at bottom.

    Do you see the nature of the PM markets changing as it matures?

    Here is your blog comment from August 2, 2010:

    “Folks let me warn you again that intermediate bottoms in gold don’t act the same way as intermediate bottoms in the stock market. As you’ve seen stock bottoms explode upwards. Gold creeps upwards. The reason is that gold is in a secular bull market. Very few people believe in the bull yet, that means traders and investors are very tentative to buy at bottoms.

    The stock market starts out fast and tops slow. Gold starts slow and tops as a parabolic move.”

  180. Gary

    Gold has been creeping out of the bottom. You can see it in the many comments on the blog trying to pick a top in the rally, the indecision in the move at the bottom, traders taking profits too early, etc. I think we may be finishing that stage of the game. If gold can now quickly recover the old highs then we could get a massive momentum move especially if it’s driven by a collapsing dollar.

  181. Gary

    I wouldn’t even attempt to try and call a short term top in AGQ and one would be an idiot to try and trade it.

    Just sit tight till we get to the top of the C-wave. That should still be several months away.

    You can put a stop under the $1307 low if you want though.

  182. AGQ


    Every local market is different. I see you are good with your hands with fixing things. That will drastically cut costs and help you in the long run. Sounds good. Good luck.

  183. David Kafrick

    An advice that I would give to people who have trouble letting winning positions run is to NOT look at your account balance at all. At least not when you have a position that you´re planning to let it run but know that you will have the urge to sell before your analysis tells you to sell.

    When I started trading my account balance and the open profit/loss on every position I had would be displayed on the top of my trading platform. Today, I only check my account balance when I don´t have any positions or about once every 15 days or so.

  184. Gary

    We could see some minor profit taking but silver is close enough to the recent highs that we will probably see a test before any serious pullback.

    And there is something fundamental driving this extraordinary move in silver. I consider it very risky to lose ones position in this market.

  185. Poly


    The move out of the lows so far looks much like the move out of the Aug int low, do you agree?

    We made up the entire decline in the first Ert dlaily, do you think we can get to that$1,425 level before we roll into the next cycle?

  186. Razvan

    Gary or anyone who is willing and able, can you send us a message when GLD hits the 10sma? i dont have GLD on my trading platform, or is it the same to use the 10sma on spot gold?

  187. Rob


    Everyone’s a critic, eh? It just means that you are popular and that you are adding to your subscriber base. Personally, I’m here for Gary’s cycle analysis view of the market. I don’t give a rat’s patooty what color the font is.

  188. JReality

    Beanie, I’d bet that Jim Rogers covered his shorts in the summer and he’s re-shorting now. I think I’m gonna join him on the NDX short. Fade him at your own risk.

    Who cares what FADE-elity says? They want to suck people into the buy, hold, and pray mentality.

  189. TZ(5288)


    Just some thoughts. Posts gone since you replied.

    I’m a happy customer regardless, but you seemed to be working some marketing angles with the webinar so I thought I’d throw out the site comments.

    No worries.

  190. james r

    I guess just me and MLMT are the only ones bearish?


    PMs should correct.

    The markets love symmetry.

    I still think we will get our intermediate low.

    Good luck everyone!

  191. Jerred


    I dont know where we go tomorrow. Need to do my homework and see the open.

    The open is the tell (open type) then day type.


    I do not use time periods. They are obsolete and have no bearing in what i look for.

    I have mentioned this multiple times on the blog that people need to stop looking at their P&L’s and focus on the PROCESS.

    Gary is giving the subs the process but some traders focus on the P&L. That is what a novice does. Process, process, process!!!

    The P&L will take care of it self.

    BTW – I am long a core position and will trade accordingly.

  192. Strellsy


    When you get confirmation from the HUI to add your 15% leverage, where will you place it?

    Will you evenly distribute it across your holdings, or add to AGQ?

  193. Strellsy

    That’s pretty much what I am thinking, Gary. I am spread across various ETFs including LSE:LSIL which is the UK equivalent fo AGQ. This is outperforming everything else and silver is looking so strong that it seems the obvious home for the rest of my capital.

    Out of interest, will you add as soon as you get confirmation or would you be looking for a pullback, say to the 10DMA?

  194. ddn3f

    Silver is making the premarket move up. Anyone going to chase today?

    As silver is moving, SLW is still really far below its all-time high.

  195. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m not chasing after 7 days of higher prices. There are several ideas I’ll add to on dips when they occur, like SVM which I am positive I’ll get $20-$30/share when I sell.

  196. Keys

    With rising oil prices, SLW is one of the better plays imo…getting stuck in a drawdown in this stock, where their input cost is $4 an ounce, and output is $30, is pretty good in my books. Food for thought…little debt as well.

    While AGQ is outperforming, we must remember AGQ is 2x silver…I mean one could leverage and do a 2x on SLW as well….How is 2xSLW doing compared to 2xSilver would be a better comparison?

    But I agree the silver miners have been lagging a little(last couple days), but one can’t go bouncing in and out of positions so oftern to miss the boat all together.

    The best risk/reward trade is silver. I have a feeling that silver will do better than GDX…now that says something a metal will outperform gold miners

  197. Poly

    SLW is still just one company though, lets not forget that. Although their business model is fantastic and cash flows leveraged well to silver’s moves, “they are just one company”!

    I’m not sure what their contract renewal periods are, but I can assure you any renewal will not be at the $4 rate!

    When you look at SLW performance in previous runs, it has essentially matched or performed below AGQ. As AGQ simply tracks the bullion, why would we take on any company specific risk?

    The only condition where AGQ falls is under with declining Silver bullion prices.

  198. DG

    Did anyone take that China short (FXP) I have been posting? If not, I’ll stop posting about it, but it is still the place to be IMO if you want to short something. Might as well short something that is already in a bear move rather than top-guessing the run away SPX train.

  199. David Kafrick

    Just my 2 cents: you guys focus too much on absolute returns without taking into account risk adjusted return. IMO, holding AGQ or SLV makes no difference in terms of risk adjusted returns. You are simply adding return and risk. Looking at the sharpe ratio or something like total return divided by the asset’s volatility is a much more valid way to measure performance than simply looking at what will appreciate more regardless of the risk.

  200. Keys

    I didn’t say to put all your bread in one basket….I just said the allure to AGQ, is based upon its 2x power…..one could achieve a 2x with anything if they wanted to.

    I also mentioned the best risk/reward is silver….this includes against silver miners.

    My mention of SLW, was that it was a best of breed if one were to choose a pm stock and get stuck in a drawdown…Miners are very suspect to energy costs…SLW is not a miner, and despite price action, remains fundamentally strong in a rising energy environment. If oil goes to 200, I wouldn’t want to be stuck with a miner with high input costs….

  201. Shalom Bernanke

    At least Keys is long the miners and has been for some time, unlike others here still waiting to buy some. If I’m not mistaken, Keys has performed better than just about any member of this blog.

    Correct me if I’m wrong.

  202. aviat72


    Well if you do not look at the session (pit or electronic), how do you determine the opening type???

    You have to be using some session; I presume it is the pit-trading session.

    Also someone had mentioned that there is a mini-silver futures contract which tracks the main contract closely and has low bid-ask spreads. Could someone please point that out to me again. Thanks.

  203. Natanarchist

    jerred/josh/james.r/mlmt….thanks for the input. Always nice to hear the other side. unlike you guys, I just don’t have the time to trade daily or focus on daily wiggles. I like to look for a good entry based on Gary cycle work and then hold through the cycle. It has worked well.

  204. ALEX

    I’m not worried about my silver positions NOW, during the last leg of a C-wave, Since oil will not impact this leg and say silver goes to …$50.

    A company like first majestic produced 6 1/2 million oz last yr, forecasts 16 million by 2014 , 20 million as a future goal.

    Next Yr , Thats 7.5+ million oz x $20 increase in profits= $140+ million added on to last year…$100 oil isn’t even crippling.

    AG ( First Majestic Silver..AG)

    The equivalent silver production for 2010 consisted of:

    6,529,325 ounces of silver, representing a 72% increase from the prior year,

    6,404,227 pounds of lead, representing a 3% decrease from the previous year,

    and 2,152 ounces of gold, representing a decrease of 19% compared to the previous year.

    And Shalom…I doubt it 🙂

  205. Keys

    Thanks for the props! Most of my old turkey comes from being wrong for all the right reasons over and over again…You eventually say the heck with it…easier life style too.
    I do think though that some, like Gary, have the heart for the modified turkey approach(which is beating old turkey btw!). My emotions simply can’t take it…so my performance is really based upon my acceptance to how lousy of a trader I actually am.

  206. Gary

    The upper band can be anywhere depending on what settings you use.

    Just in case the reason you are asking,
    the Bollinger Band crash trade doesn’t work on the upside.

    Markets go up differently than they go down.

  207. ALEX


    You said you are a lousy trader…

    I wouldn’t say you are a lousy trader..I would say you learned to be a good investor.

    we all learned from ‘someone’ or ‘many someones’how to buy & sell, trying to make profits.

    If you have learned to stick to a method that increases your profits, and reduces losses…you are a good investor!

    You are a good investor…it sounds better!

  208. DG

    Wow, Gary. You have really changed my trading attitude. I am long a quite a bit of PM’s and actually am hoping they dip here so I can get more. Wanting something ii am long to goo down is a new attitude for me. Combining your approach with my trading skills, I have handily beat Old Turkey so far (got 100% out at $1380, and bought back what I sold at $1330 or so—I think perhaps a number of people did this). It’s great to learn new stuff. There’s always something to learn, which is part of why I love this game. Thanks!

  209. ALEX


    You got 100% out at $1380 and then back in ,that much lower…thats going to be a great feeling when gold goes back to $1380 and you see where you are (compared to where you were last time we were there)! Nice

    p.s. every time I try to post, it first gets rejected. I hope the 3 or 4 times I try unsuccessfully aren’t cluttering Gary’s page.

    —Dollar diving!!

  210. Chicken Burrito

    My proprietary volume/price/macd/stochastics/bollinger bands analytics model says that a failure of SLV to breach 29.77 combined with a move of GDX bellow 57.26 and a XAU/HUI ratio of 2.123/3.124 by at least 11:12 this AM spells a VERY large sell off in the metals. I’d be scared.

    Be very, very, very, very…


  211. DG

    Careful, guys. SLV just showed up on my short screen. I don’t plan to sell any (let alone short it!), but it sure slows me down when I think about adding. Even if it goes higher near-term it is very likely to pull back to at least here before starting higher again.

  212. Poly


    Is that signal even valid? I mean, SLV is simply a fund that tracks the NAV of physical silver bars, so essentially it’s tracking the Silver Spot price.

  213. Gary

    According to our clueless Fed president inflation remains quite low.

    Apparently Ben doesn’t eat or drive, have health care, go to a movie or have kids in college, etc, etc.

    Keeping a straight face while delivering that load of BS has to be one of the greatest acting jobs in history.

  214. ALEX

    Ben is speaking

    says inflation in other countries could be caused by natural disaster causing shortages/industry demand.Growth is in other countries, so they have demand in flation.

    says (no quote) we have the tools to reduce liquidity when the time comes to prevent inflation. Now is not that time , but we are monitoring ‘inflation threat ‘ closely. etc etc etc

  215. Beanie

    Paulson still got the Midas touch.

    “We have spent the last year and half making restructuring investments in high quality assets at deeply distressed prices to maximize gains in an economic recovery. In total we’ve invested over $20 billion in more than 40 different transactions. Now that these companies have repaired their capital structures, their equity offers substantial upside appreciation relative to downside risk. This is part of the cycle where we want to have long event exposure and do not want to be under-invested.”

    John Paulson

  216. ALEX

    Chicken B

    I actually like all the indicators you mentioned and use them all except Bollinger Bands. you said..

    “My proprietary volume/price/macd/stochastics/bollinger bands analytics model “

    I have SLV slightly overbought, but not scary. A pullback to near $28 possible…do you have a target?? thx

  217. DG

    Poly: Yes, it is just showing the the rubber band on physical silver has become VERY stretched to the upside. Short term stuff, so just for adding-on purposes, but it gave similar warnings in mid-October, early November, and late December, all of which were correct to suggest caution. As I said, I am not selling anything based on it but will wait for a dip to add.

  218. TZ(5288)


    Ben and the Fed are not clueless. They are doing EXACTLY what is necessary to maintain the fiat theft system.

    That you think he is clueless means you simply do not understand his and the Fed’s REAL purpose. Hint: their purpose is NOT to keep inflation low, NOT to improve employment, NOT to ‘save the dollar’, and NOT a few other things that people commonly attribute to them.

  219. ALEX


    I read it twice and he still got me looking at SLV, and I couldnt see anything scary 🙂 Could go up, could pull back—Chicken B, you got me onthat one

  220. TZ(5288)

    The LARGEST LOOTING of the WORLDS treasures is currently happening by the governments and finance powers and the only people getting crushed into poverty are the ‘little people’ who are too lazy to stop watching TV and figure out what is being done to them, and too stupid such that they believe the statements and ‘goodwill’ of those in power.

    Why in hell would somebody doing this stop? Cause they want to be a nice guy?!?

  221. Gary

    Why would they stop? Because if they continue down this path it will lead to another depression and another war.

    Do you really think Ben is willing to start another war to further the banking system?

    I just don’t think he
    s that evil so yes he is an idiot if he can’t see where this is going.

  222. TZ(5288)

    The typical behavior of a thief, when something is working, is to hope it LASTS and take as MUCH as you can.

    Gary (and much of the world, actually) think the proper behavior of a career thief making the SCORE OF HIS LIFE is to STOP, walk to the front door, knock, and politely inform the owner they are getting robbed then start helping them recover their losses as well as assist in calling the police.

    Yeah..the fed is clueless cause they keep on stuffing loot into the getaway car.

  223. TZ(5288)

    >Do you really think Ben is willing to start another war to further the banking system?

    You don’t read much history on this topic it seems.

    The answer is not only yes, but wars are very profitable.

    Oh…and the people doing the stealing don’t get hurt in these wars. Those same TV watching ‘little people’ do.

  224. DG

    Here’s the dip is silver I posted showed up on my short screen at 29.75. Not expecting a big deal, but glad not to have chased.

  225. mylifemytrade

    The bloodbath over next 2 days will be a sight to behold.. but we will likely take out yesterday’s highs early next week ….. that may be the last chance to get off the bus IMO.

  226. Shalom Bernanke

    I believe Bernanke and those he works with definitely will bring on another war. Wars serve as a distraction, while eliminating many “useless eaters”, to use Kissinger’s term.

    On a lighter note, maybe we’ll get a couple down days in the miners, so we can all LOAD UP on NUG-T (if volume ever picks up).

  227. TZ(5288)


    Do you have money on your comments? Please tell me your precious metal position. If you aren’t mostly out of metals based on your statements I will not find them believable, no offense.

  228. David Kafrick


    No offense, but you are just being stubborn and trying to win an argument with the market and with this board.

    You said 5 or 6 days ago that we were going down hard, nothing happened. Than you said that it would happen before slv takes out 29.64 . Didn’t happen.

    Now you just keep pushing your timing target and price target until you get proven right.

  229. TZ(5288)

    Metals could crash and go to zero. Almost anything is possibe in the markets. Proper investors should cover multiple scenarios.

    I’ve covered it and will lose about 3-4% of net worth should that come to pass and I get stopped out.

    I’ve been wrong before and trading continues. However I suspect the previous values I gave to hold.

  230. sophia


    If I may say something between all the super traders that we have around this blog…If Gold goes down in the next few days, it will be an opportunity to buy…..

  231. DG

    MLMT: I asked you just yesterday what would show your scenario was wrong. You said “A tick above 29.64 on silver” It had been gold above $1361 last week, but that was not mentioned. Then we traded above 29.64. Now we are back to “gold is going to tank” again. You never give reasons, and frankly, while you made a couple of good calls in a row a while ago I have lost interest because there seems to be no rigor behind your claims. You are of course welcome to post whatever you like but you are starting to become background noise. WHY do you keep feeling gold is going to tank? Just guesswork?

  232. Gary

    I know gold trades 24 hours but it’s funny how the hedgies almost always seem to be able to fill a gap on the GLD chart.

  233. pimaCanyon

    Watching these clowns in Washington WHO RUN THIS COUNTRY, I become more and more convinced that we are doomed. They are ALL IDIOTS!

    Rep. McClintock just referred to QE as QUALITATIVE easing.


  234. n1tro

    Doesn’t MLMT base all his predictions on volume analysis? So maybe someone should check volume and set aside cycles for now confirm or deny the predictions.

  235. pimaCanyon


    A weather forecaster forecasts severe storms with torrential rain for tomorrow. Tomorrow comes and the sun is shining. The forecaster forecasts severe storms with torrential rain for the next day. The next day comes and the sun is shining. This goes on for 30 days, each day the forecaster forecasting heavy rain for the next day.

    On the 31st day, it rains! The forecaster says, “See, I knew it was gonna rain, I told you it was gonna rain, great forecast eh?”

    So what do you think, is that weather forecaster a good weather forecaster?

  236. DG

    MLMT: My last post was too strong. Sorry. Being wrong or adapting is fine in my book, but you had said “ticking above 29.64 will negate the drop” not put it off for a few days. Your lack of reasoning and wiggling to avoid being wrong damages your credibility, though.

  237. mylifemytrade

    If cycles can get messed up by Fed intervention, then why do you think other methods like volume analysis and/or chart patterns are immune to Benny’s Johnson.

  238. DG

    MLMT: Of course they can. But you still haven’t stated why you are convinced gold is going to tank. And if your analysis is based on price points once they are taken out they just are, for whatever cause. As in, once a trendline is broken it just is, whether caused by Bernanke, the phases of the moon, or whatever. If you want to post as you do it would be good to back it up with something, otherwise it’s like the “SPX is going to 10,000″ or SPX is going to 100” guys.

  239. DG

    Pima: Silver has already honored my “warning” post from this morning. I will add when GLD hits it’s 10 DMA as Gary has suggested. Seems like as good a place as any. The days are past where i can expect to get a but signal as we will not get overdone to the downside again. (The last buy signal like the sell on SLV was on SIL at 21.06 on 1/25. Should have just kept it!)

  240. Gary

    LOL I’m fairly certain that is his goal as most everyone here is long precious metals and nervous as we are most likely at the very start of an intermediate cycle.

    Which is of course the scariest time to enter positions as the possibility of a continuation of the down trend scares the crap out of everyone right now 🙂

  241. DG

    Alex: Have you seen FCX? Damn. I can;t believe I overslept and missed my chance to redo it Monday. I couldn’t get you long FXP, eh? You said you don’t short, but this was a LONG (o.k. it’s an inverse ETF).

  242. David Kafrick

    This kind of action in gold, spasms with no follow through, is very uninspiring. I think it needs some kind of violent spike down to shake out weak longs and attact the longer term buyers. It just looks tired.

    Silver on the other hand is looking pretty good.

  243. vuvvy

    My proprietary pivot system That has been backtested and optimized since Globex inception has not given it’s buy signal yet.It has absolutely nailed the last 2 IT corrections without any false starts, and only gave 1 bad signal in the 2008 correction. If I do get it I will post.Another guru that has followed gold and USERX has an interesting concept that when USERX is down for the day and the pit gold session is up that it can mean additional gold weakness the next day, sometimes surprisingly so. I have seen it happen multiple times so am hoping for a down gold close at 1:30 in the pits.

  244. Josh

    Looks like silver is building value inside yesterday’s range, which I like, as I am long again as of this morning. I do think a retest of the 29.05 area is possible, perhaps even later today. I would be more concerned if the gap from yesterday closed without being quickly bought back up. I like the relative strength in the metals. Sellers in control today until somebody steps up.

  245. TZ(5288)


    >My proprietary pivot system That has been backtested and optimized since Globex inception has not given it’s buy signal yet.

    Would you care to specify a security with that statement?

  246. vuvvy

    Poly,Some people are just so bad at trading they need a system with rules in order to make good decisions. That would be me:)I get lots of confidence when I can backtest a system and see how it has performed historically, and have the ability to only trade it when the profit curve is hitting new highs, as I know the system is performing well right then.

  247. vuvvy

    TZ, sorry about that. I just assumed with the mention of Globex that everyone would know it’s GC. I have another system based on momentum that went long GC at 1344 that has 65% winners to the long side with the winners 1.99 times the size of losers that I use for my trading, and use the pivot system more for confirmation.

  248. Razvan

    all this automatic systems have little value to our trading, just short term stuff.

    the greatest trade this year was the 150sma on gold which i heard nothing about from the system guys.

  249. ALEX

    Hey –

    My propitiatory patented memory bank has served me some data that says….HMM..sometimes intra-day pullbacks snap back and shake out weak hands.Sometimes for days and only going sideways and slowly down…indicating demand…

    I’m not Necessarily saying here…my memory actually really sucks 🙂

    just saying


    Jst got back , saw UR post…Yeah, 2 good calls with the China short and FcX

  250. vuvvy

    Razvan,A system can be based on 1 min charts all the way to monthly charts. I have the ability to backtest gold futures all the way back to 1975 on virtually any time frame.It is definitely not for short term only as some my daily sytems are in a trade at times for months.How well will your 150 MA work if this is only a bounce and we continue down?A system will accomodate for that and allow a trader to make rational decisions.

  251. Jerred


    I dont believe sellers are in control today. It is a two way auction.

    SI/SLV will trade the previous day high and the vpoc. Buyers stepped in at vpoc and bought it back up.

    more than likely we get another day of this to make a balanced composite then look for a break of the balance.

    I added on the dip today to my longs.

    Long and loving it

  252. DG

    A “system” is not necessarily “automated.” Finding a set of indicators that works well together is a “system,” at least as far as I use the word. And people keep these things proprietary because if they actually work and become well known they cease to work. You can be darn sure that, given the money I have made off some of these things, I’m not about to ruin it by posting it here!

    By the way, silver has recaptured its earlier losses and looks vulnerable again to a dip. let’s hope we get it so we can add.

  253. Razvan

    if the 150sma doesnt work then i have $65 dollars to go before i can close my position without taking a loss.

    The best trade last year was the $25 bottom on silver which again was picked without a system live on this blog.

    It is just not how i want to approach the market. Yes you can make money by doing these short term trades but not for people who like to stay in a trade for long periods of time.

  254. vuvvy

    DG, that is correct.I can automate my system and I do in my simulated account but I would never trade with real $ that way. Everything is done with orders entered manually, that are generated by my system.It’s been real eye opening to see how my signals are interacting with Gary’s methodology.

  255. Clarkatroid

    hi gary/ anyone
    would someone be kind enough to point out to a novice investor looking to add positions how to calculate the 10 day dma, or point me to some software etc please
    many thanks

  256. DG

    System also does mean short term. My “system” spotted SIL at 21.06. It can now be held until it hits 40, hopefully. My work has revolved around finding entry points with no or little draw down once the trade is placed. I look for entry points during reactions against the direction my long-term view indicates the item will go.

  257. vuvvy

    Razvan, Of course to each his own, and whatever each trader is comfortable with. My system is invaluable for spotting tops in gold after strong moves(usually within 1-2 days of top)and not as good for bottoms, which is why I’m here for Gary’s advice.

  258. Razvan

    if you are serious in learning about how to use sma, fibonacci (gary uses these sometimes) levels and pivots then i suggest you go to http://www.fxbootcamp.com/ and learn with them for $99. They trade the currency markets and are big on technical analysis. Dont start trading currencies now because that is a different ballgame altogether but you can take the knowledge and apply it to any market.

  259. Razvan

    you insight on spotting the tops will be useful here. Gary is good at spotting bottoms but we need help for the tops. Let us know in real time when a top is approaching !

  260. Poly

    The world given up on discussing let alone shorting equities, destroyed after that relentless march.

    Normally the time it all gets going?

  261. Beanie


    “I don’t think trading strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as most traders believe. If what you are doing is right, it will work even if people have a general idea about it.

    I always say you could publish rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.”

    Richard Dennis

  262. Haggerty


    From your mouth to gods ears. My short has left me a broken down shell of a man.

    And I was thinking I should just salvage the 20% I have left from what I started with in that position, then I figured that would be when the drop happens.

  263. vuvvy

    If we get a blow off top it will get out close to the top, as it has done every time since the gold bull started.The top gold has made recently has been out of the norm as it was choppy/curved but I don’t think this next one will be.I will post signals at that time.

  264. Beanie

    I was wondering if anyone has entertained the idea of where precious metals would be trading at if the Dow indeed gets to 18,000? Of course, very few people think Dow will get that high, but let’s just assume that it does. What do you think?

  265. vuvvy

    Ugh… looks like MLMT will get his smashdown day tomorrow. Hopefully it will be a one day affair.This is based on gold being up $1.40 at the pit session, and USERX having a down day today.

  266. pimaCanyon

    clark, who’s your broker?

    I trade with Think or Swim (TOS). Their platforms comes with realtime charting, including all kinds of studies, two of which are simple and exponential moving averages.

    A lot of online brokers these days provide charting at no charge. If yours doesn’t, you might consider switching. I’m generally happy with TOS, but their platform is a bit complex so there’s a learning curve.

    Stockcharts is pretty easy to use, so that’s a good suggestion. Don’t know whether they give real time data, but for the type of trading that Gary does, you probably don’t need real time quotes.

    Good luck!

  267. vuvvy

    Tomorrow may be shaping up to be a test of that 10 day MA, although I will personally use the 13 day to add.Hopefully by posting this info the market will make me look like a fool and not go down:):)

  268. vuvvy

    Jeff, I’ve found that systems using a number of factors work better than any single one. These include many analysis techniques,MA’s/crosses,hard stops,%trailing stops all optimized over bull and bear periods. I have used parts of SAR like ATR and combined them with other factors I really don’t want to spell out exactly,for obvious reasons.

  269. ALEX

    James R

    Is it scary ?? 🙂

    Some of us think the train left the station, and the caboos is backing up here to let the last ones on (near the 10sma)…

    BUT , I keep hearing LARGE head and shoulders on GDX and HUI by others.

    What do you see? 🙂

  270. james r


    Is it scary?

    Yes of course. I do sometimes doubt myself. Yesterday, I almost pulled the trigger and god forbid chased a higher open!

    Anyway, I see plenty of silver miners like HL and SIL forming a head-and-shoulder pattern.

    A few days ago I mentioned on this blog that the volume was weak and retail people were chasing this phony rally.

    I think this is what happened last year. A false breakout rally. Though I wasn’t a subscriber last year.

    So as I said yesterday the markets love symmetry (and gap filling) and that’s exactly what I think is going to happen.


  271. Glen

    james r

    “I see plenty of silver miners like HL and SIL forming a head-and-shoulder pattern.”

    I don’t see a head and shoulders on SIL. Do you mean inverted head and shoulders?

  272. Slumdog

    JamesR, we already have a massive H&S top Nov, Dec, Jan.

    That’s not the big news.
    The big news is what happens this month, Feb. So far, this is chop. It’s vicious; but it’s chop.

    Until the low of Jan is taken out, we’re in limboland.

    I’ve posted this observation either last week or earlier this week.

    If there will be a serious move that I can read ( and I can read very little), we’ll need to do nothing but chop for the next 18 calendar days.

    What you’re discounting is a failed H&S pattern. When those occur, the torrent will rush in an unholy extension of the rise, and will tear every short’s roots out.

    That torrent will blow the market up by 120-720 points above the Dec high.

    The direction now is obvious, and it’s down. It’s been obvious since the last week in Jan.

    Whatever you’re seeing is the obvious answer. The unobvious answer is a massive surge up.

    This is the meanest and thus the highest probability move at this moment. But we need confirmation for either direction. As of now, you’re right, but be very afraid as the best fake out will be what Gary describes, a lot of frightening indecision in this time window, and then Gary’s logic, paraphrasing: “errors in a bull market are made to the upside”.

    IMO, either stand aside and wait the 18 days, or ?? I am long and frightened on a small amount in GC.

    There’s plenty of time to get into the short direction, imo.

    I’ll update in the last week of Feb.

  273. ALEX


    Good answer, I was kind of just wondering , because thats what makes a market…buyers/sellers.

    I am holding now , Things look trather bullish to me , but as you say…no one can be 100% confident.

    I will say this , however –

    I have been waiting for the 10sma to cross above the 20 sma, and it did on all the stocks I own,and GDX- with MACD turning up and almost above the zero line. This is rather bullish usually.

    Look back , When GDX bottomed in July and The 10sma crossed the 20sma in August-It all was up from there, with a couple down days here and there…

    If we get a really light volume bounce off that 10 or even 20 sma, you may want to dip in a little??

  274. james r


    I am looking at the daily timeframe for 6 months. Both heads and left shoulder completed. Right shoulder half-way completed.


  275. basil

    I think we’re looking good. The fact that the Transports showed some strength today is encouraging as it is the last of the indices lagging behind. I do see a ‘head and shoulders’ in the Transports, but yet I see a head and shoulder every week somewhere without it meaning anything. This guy has a pretty good explanation of how to judge the ‘head and shoulder’ in the Transports:

  276. ALEX

    James R

    Ya know what..I am comparing this to Aug , but looing at Feb 2010, there was a pretty hard dip at the end of Feb. ( really only 3 quick days) that DID go through the 10 and 20 sma Quickly.

    You could look for that, but I just dont see new lows, and I would hate for this thing to Rally hard out of here, with you 100% cash.

  277. Poly


    “Yesterday, I almost pulled the trigger and god forbid chased a higher open”

    So in past 24 hours, what changed that made you view this 6 MONTH, 4 peak pattern differently? Enough that you went from almost buying yesterday to predicting Armageddon today! 🙂

    Please, enough already.

  278. Avann

    I think what changed is he DIDN’T pull the trigger so now he MUST find a reason for a correction.
    James … don’t worry … just wait for the 10 DMA and get in when we all add the rest of ours.
    I still have 30% to add … patiently waiting for 10 dma.

  279. David

    I see a head-and-shoulders in SIL as well — but with TWO heads and 1 1/2 shoulders.

    As everyone knows, the “two-heads-1 1/2 shoulders formation” is very bearish indeed. A classic sell signal.

    Write it down: MLMT is calling for $1300 gold. James is calling for SIL $18.50-19.00. MLMT has made one very good call in the past, which gives him a 100% track record. If he gets this wrong, that goes to 50%, and he will have all the credibility of a tossed coin.

    $1300 gold. $19 SIL. Game on.

  280. james r


    I mentioned I am not always confident on my analysis. There is always a chance for failure.

    And I am not predicting armageddon. But I have been on record that we have not had our intermediate correction.

    Now can I be wrong?

    Well of course!

    And if I am wrong I will buy back and ride the rest of this C wave up.


  281. David

    If the 2nd shoulder on the 2-headed H&S breaks down, it becomes a crack baby, which is bearish.

    If it breaks out, it becomes a “reverse crack baby”, which, interestingly, is also incredibly bearish.

    I learned all of this from reading Tim Knight.

  282. fubsy_cooter

    THe one piece of personal data I’ve collected that has not changed over the past couple years is that everyone I speak with says, “What is gold right now…. __ dollars an ounce….Isn’t that too expensive?” That is the stock response I hear from the public, and the media (mostly). My bet, and I know Gary’s too, is that there will come a time when people rationalize gold prizes when they truly are too expensive.

    We aint there yet.

  283. ALEX

    If anyone cares…

    I have a friend that cant buy and hold, he dooesnt feel confident about the Gold Bull, so I draw him charts and show him what I focus on… And then I also use the charts to reference for myself.

    …I believe the chart unless something changes , then go from there. So far , they have not changed from the bottom on Jan 25 to now.

    I will open the folder , but I already posted 2 of these charts before. The new ones are charts 3 and 4 in the series of 5 charts.

    Hope they help Someone


  284. DG

    You know, heads and shoulders are just two body parts. There are lots of other body parts to choose from. We shouldn’t be too narrow on this blog. I’m seeing an ominous elbow and kidney pattern that usually results in price fluctuations. Usually.

  285. Jayhawk

    Deformed, crack baby H&S patterns are traditionally the most volatile and scary of all the dreaded H&S patterns. Be afraid, be very afraid.

  286. mylifemytrade

    Ok. so my TA is off by few days and few dollars/cents on gold/silver…

    The point I am trying to make is… this is time to use bounces to get out of long positions and not buy more (thinking these are breakouts).

  287. ALEX


    I know you wrote that post as I wrote mine ,

    So I am not going to girly slap you IF I happen to have a head & shoulders in one of those charts 🙂 LOL

    ok, dinner time in New England


  288. David

    Interestingly a guy on YouTube did a video in which he went out on the street in Southern California with a 1-oz gold coin and offered to give it to anyone who could tell him the price, give or take $100.

    No one even got close. Most people guessed $50.

    (At the time I think the POG was around $1200).

    Eventually, after dozens of people, he tried to give the coin away. No one would take it.

  289. Chicken Burrito

    Blogger mylifemytrade said…

    Burrito dude,

    Lets talk at EOD today…

    OK, you want to talk about the massive .04% drop in gold or the heart stopping .56% drop in silver.


  290. Natanarchist

    I find it weird that folks are getting upset with MLMT/James r and their call for lower gold. If I understand correctly, all they are saying is that the intermediate bottom is not in…time will tell. now if they were calling for 600.00 gold like some EW’ers..well that would be a laugh. For most of us that don’t day trade, a pull back here and there isn’t going to change where we end up at the end of the C wave.

    part of me wants those guys to be right or close to right so I can add more at a lower price.

  291. Clarkatroid

    re- everyone that replied to my 10 day moving average question. thankyou very much, its appreciated

    im obviously a novice investor, old turkey to use garys lingo. But to be totally honest ive little interest in becoming more than what i am now. ie a part time novice investor. So rather than digging any deeper than i am now, would someone be so kind as to point towards the next buy signal as per garys advice.

    fwiw, im from the uk and use 2 brokers, td waterhouse and hargreaves lansdown .

    as a side note, this is the most lucrative blog/investing site ive ever been involved in, i made a shit ton of money last year just following garys advice,so props to you mate. keep it up

  292. Poly

    “The return to gold does not depend on the fulfillment of some material condition. It is an ideological problem. It presupposes only one thing: the abandonment of the illusion that increasing the quantity of money creates prosperity.”

    Ludwig von Mises.

  293. Slumdog

    I apologize to the group. I am looking at a very specific chart pattern reversal. It’s not the classic shoulder, dip, head, dip, shoulder, and then slough off.

    What you’d see is a low, high, low, so far. That’s what I see on a monthly chart. I don’t see the dips that you’re looking for. I’m not looking for those.

  294. Chicken Burrito

    Blogger mylifemytrade said…

    Burrito dude,

    You sound too cocky…

    I will let Ms. Market handle you…


    Pot let me introduce you to kettle.

    You make some pretty cocky calls round these parts mylifeislame. Mommy needs you to take out the trash if you can hear her calling down there in the basement.

  295. Gary

    The difference between last year and this year was last year the dollar was rallying out of a yearly cycle low. This year the dollar is collapsing down into a three year cycle bottom.

    Completely different fundamentals.

  296. pimaCanyon


    Way to go following Gary and banking serious coin! Keep it up.

    I suspect one of us here will post when gold pulls back to the 10 day moving average. I will post if I’m around when it happens.

  297. mylifemytrade

    You want to hear my view..

    Gold has already put in its LT top – we wont see 1400+ again… ever again… if you are lucky you will see 1395-ish.. that’s about it.

  298. Brian

    MLMT, You just lost all credibility. You must not follow any of the fundamental story that is going on here. Set your short bets ASAP and let us know how it goes.

  299. Avann

    MLMT … that has to be the cockiest thing I’ve ever read/heard anywhere.
    Gold will never EVER hit $1400 again.
    Would you like to rephrase that?

  300. Shalom Bernanke

    “If it breaks 1400, his credibility on this board is gone.”- David

    lol, like he ever had any. I’m amazed anybody even addresses him at this point, but to each his own.

    It’s the same guy that takes a stab here and there, typically right before major bull moves, only to come back 6-8 weeks later to make the same bearish call. He obviously doesn’t care about making money, so must only peek in here to ruffle some feathers.

  301. Robert


    If I remember correctly he hasn’t made too many calls, and more often than not, when he does make a call they are on or close to.

    I don’t see how gold won’t breach $1400 unless QE immediately dies and world governments all agree to austerity measures.

    That said his call as we stand is still in the right and I think he should be judged as time progresses.

  302. David

    MLMT made one good call — he picked the precise top of that fakeout at the beginning of January. That gave him a bit of credibility. I am not aware of other bad calls.

    But this one is pretty clear. If he’s right, great. If he’s wrong, he’s on par with Beanie.

  303. vuvvy

    I think we hit the final top later this year as we seem to be mirroring the late 70’s very closely, but dude ya REALLY think we hit the top already? REALLY? I am LMAO!!!

  304. Avann

    David … yes. That’s the problem with calls like that. There’s no credibility left if you’re wrong. He has a very small chance of being right … in which case he’s either brilliant or lucky and a very big chance of being wrong … in which case I would have a difficult time taking him seriously moving forward.

  305. Chicken Burrito

    David said…
    He may be right for all we know. Give him the benefit of the doubt. We’ll know soon enough.

    We’ll know soon enough that gold won’t hit 1400 EVER AGAIN. OK. Are you heading into the future in a time machine to report back to the blog? LOL.

  306. Avann

    CB … if gold misses $1400 even in this year I would call MLMT brilliant. No need for time machine … we will know soon enough.

  307. vuvvy

    GC in 1980 lost more than 30% of it’s value in one daily cycle. I’m not sure what spot price did back then because futures represented what gold should do in the future and was approximately twice as high as the spot at the top, but I’m sure it tracked it pretty closely. This correction isn’t even remotely close to indicating any kind of long term top.

  308. David


    If gold breaks 1400, which I expect will be soon, we will know he’s wrong.

    Of course, if the bull market is over, gold could still come back someday — which makes it kind of a lousy bet. Easy to prove him wrong. But I would still give him credit even if gold failed to break 1400 this year.

  309. TZ(5288)


    >The one piece of personal data I’ve collected that has not changed over the past couple years is that everyone I speak with says, “What is gold right now…. __ dollars an ounce….Isn’t that too expensive?”

    100% friggin completely true

    ONLY response I get (assuming the person even *has* a knowledgeable response.)

    As I see it, the CURRENT wave up will end with all the people we know who have *casually* been “exposed” to gold (though us gold/silver bugs) suddenly asking about it and buying some.

    They’ll want in at 1600 or 1800 or whatever the end of this C move is. (The general masses who have NO exposure to people like us or zerohedge or whatever will STILL be missing in action and clueless)

    As the “exposed” people buy near 1800, that will be the peak for *this* C wave (spring I guess we are thinking). All of them will immediately get crushed, sell, and wish they hadn’t started.

    Metals will recover after the D. They will resume going up, break highs and keep going.

    The *exposed* people will say “damn, I should have held” and get back in (we will, of course, already be in and continuing to make profit).

    The goldbug exposed masses will drive the EARLY part of this final leg up (as 1st and 2nd stage money starts unloading) and suddenly the GENERAL masses will take notice and get in for the final push. They will progressively add and add and burn out the tail end of the metals bull.

    Then, Game Over. They bag hold and ride it down.

    PS: as part of this C wave, I am keeping a watch out for those goldbug “exposed” friends of mine who suddenly take interest and actually, finally, buying. There are half a dozen who know that’s mostly all I trade and keep saying “it’s going to the moon”. They still have none though, but that will change at the end of this C.

  310. DG

    Robert: You’re not the same Robert who went on tilt earlier this week are you? If so, nice emotional comeback. If not, good to be down to one Robert.

    Re MLMT: Has he ever said to anyone what he bases his calls on? If memory serves he made two good calls in a row which is what got my attention. Lately his posts have seemed erratic (not more wrong, just less sensible.) Never see $1400 again, huh. Fascinating. Well at least that’s clear and measurable.

  311. TheBookGuy


    Are you currently showing us in some way on what day you update the chart day count? I don’t see it if you are and you don’t always update the chart along with the number of days we are on.

    I don’t know if I’m making sense…if not please ask what I mean. I’m not a real good communicator.

  312. TZ(5288)

    The top is far from in. Unlike MLMT, T&J or whoever else wants to disagree, I *DO* understand money and finance and I DO know where this is heading. And I got my money on it.

    I’m not one of the people who is gonna say “well…you never know.”

    That’s why you have a brain and that computer in front of you. Use it.

    I do know. If some of the critical facts change then the outcome might change. But that isnt’ the case for now.

    Long and holding.

  313. Gary

    I update the cycle count charts every day although I don’t generate a new chart every day. But the cycle counts are accurate.

  314. TZ(5288)

    Back to the metals market, I see a likely selloff in the next 24hrs. Nothing too bad, just something like what we had today continuing tomorrow.

    I’m pondering two different buy points on silver where I might add a bit more (with very small stops as per my technique). 29.75 and 29 would be approximately my levels of interest.

  315. Gary

    LOL isn’t it obvious MLMT is just trying to ruffle the feathers of everybody here?

    I guarantee M can’t see the future any better than anyone else and I guarantee his system if it is a system probably doesn’t perform much better than 50-60% like just about every system.

    With the dollar collapsing I would put the odds of another move down at probably less than 20% and the end of the secular bull market at less than .0001%.

    Secular gold bull markets don’t go out with a whimper they go out with a bang.

    And even if gold were to drop into one more lower low, so what?

    We aren’t leveraged heavily so we could easily ride out the minor draw down. That would then pretty much have to be the intermediate cycle bottom because the cycle would have stretched extremely far.

    And in the final analysis we would have got “close enough”. No one ever gets the exact bottom. If we get within 3-5% that’s good enough in my book.

  316. Avann

    TZ, are you saying you would buy at 29.75 and then abandon if it continues lower and then try again at 29? I have 30% to add so am also interested in getting more.

  317. Avann

    Actually, it looks like the 10 dma is right around 29.10. Maybe TZ and Gary have it right. Could be the right time to add if it gets there.

  318. David

    One thing I will offer is that silver stocks aren’t leading the metal. SIL in particular has retraced only half the decline, while silver itself is close to making new highs.

    This supports the bear case.

  319. Brian

    If you look at the last launch out of a seasonal low, miners were much slower to respond than the bullion. At the time, I really did not get that, but it seems to be happening again.

  320. Nick


    I believe you mentioned in the past you look @ volume profiles.

    Now having made a call of Gold not crossing 1400 (atleast in the near future), can you elaborate on What you are seeing?

    I guess, we would all love to hear the WHY behind your call.


  321. james r

    I was thinking if the gold market is going to reach our target say 1600-1800 do you think it would make sense for the market to correct well below 1300 (say 1260-1240) to shake off the loose hands and any bullish sentiment?

    I believe this type of correction would give us the added strength to reach our goal as oppose to a weaker correction above 1300.

    If you look at other bull runs like the nasdaq in 1998 it had a deep correction before it may its final run to the top in 2000. I’m sure there are other examples.

    Just trying to make some sense on the direction and timing of the market…

  322. mylifemytrade

    Ok. I got ruffled a bit today with all the comments made at me and got carried away…

    I will take back the gold and 1400 line… All I want to say is that gold will trade much lower, possibly down as low as 1150 or so before it may go higher … thats all… I still believe that there is fair chance that gold saw its peak.. but that is just mental masturbation… thats all.. However, 1150 before 1400 is based on the price patterns that an intermediate correction takes in any asset class.

    As for me, I was positioned short gold from 1426 and covered at 1360. I wanted to short the next spike that went to 1424… It never hit my price level and when I woke up in the morning it was too late to get on board.

    I shorted GDX at 64 and covered at 58.

    Presently I am flat. I see some downside this week.. But remember the 1396 level I spoke of several weeks back. IMO, we will see that level in NYSE hours before we head back down again. That is when I will short… If we do not get there then fine.

    I will go long around 1160 with stop under 1130.

    As for GDX, I will short around 59 area… and cover around 48 (gold = 1260-ish) where we should get a nice bounce and hence go long.

    Finally I will go long GDX and miners big time when GDX hits 44.

  323. mylifemytrade

    FWIW I do not trade silver. I traded it only once using SLV puts during the first down leg from SLV=30-ish to SLV=26-ish

    That was my first and last SLV trade. The movements in SLV and silver are erratic. Also, gold is much more behaved IMO than silver as far as my analysis goes.

  324. mylifemytrade

    Gary is right that if you try to trade these wiggles you will end up losing money.

    That is precisely the reason why I am flat right now… I will not be long PMs till gold gets to 1160 level….

    As for stocks, I see a nice down day tomorrow. But we will go back up again next week to put in an intermediate top.

  325. ALEX

    Blogger David said…

    At some point I would think that oil prices will be a drag on the miners. Maybe that’s what’s happening here.

    Just a thought…

    ..not really likely. Think about this…from Aug to now Oil is up 20% , and silver is up 80%!

    So you pay a bit more for your oil, BUT…you are making the same profits as last year in silver.. plus 80%.

    So your Silver company pulls 10 million oz’s out of the ground last year…

    $17/oz = $17,000,000.00— using the same equipment (thats paid off) , same employees at close to the same wages…costs roughly the same as last yr maintainence wise, but oh…oil went up 20%. so Gas from $2.50 is up 20% to $3.00.

    Now your 10 million oz’s is worth almost double at $30/oz…is $30,000,000.00, with about the same costs ( unless they explore,acquire .etc)

    Not very likely you are seeing anything but more profits , even when oil and gas are up 20%

  326. mylifemytrade

    I am publicly apologizing if my comments ruffled any one. The comment about Gold and 1400 was unprofessional and uncalled for… I was having a rough day and a lot of comments (unpleasant ones) didn’t help the matter. It was very childish of me….

    People here have their retirement and life savings on the line in the PM and miners trade… Very much out of line for me to make such a comment… I am no Beanie and dont intend to be one ever.

    I have learnt a lot from people here and dont want to ruffle any one here.. that is not my intention. My intention is to share a counter side of the trade that most of you have put on… which should in essence only help you as it forces you to think twice about the trade that you have put on.. Thats all..

    In the end, I hope we all make money…. In the market, both longs and shorts can make money provided you manage your position size/money well… BAD TIMING AND GOOD MGMT will prevent failure… and bring some sucess… but GOOD TIMING AND POOR MGMT –> guaranteed failure.

  327. ALEX

    OH…and my above post is addressing the “maybe that’s what we are seeing now”.

    Just that AT THIS POINT, oils up 20% and silver is up 80. Not affecting them now, was my response.

  328. David

    It certainly wasn’t unprofessional or uncouth to say you think gold has topped IF you believe that to be the case.

    But if you call a top in gold on a gold forum, people are going to react. You’re throwing down the gauntlet, after all.

    A number of people, including myself, noted that you’ve made some very good calls in the past, and your point of view is always taken into account.

    Having said that, perhaps it was unfair of me to suggest that you could be regarded as a Beanie 😉

  329. DG

    MLMT: Water under the bridge m from my standpoint. Giving reasons and what you base your opinions on, and informational rather than extreme comments, is great as far as I’m concerned. I have to admit that I don’t think gold will drop that far and as this is just the start of the rally it would be unfortunate if you talked people out of their positions, but that’s what the game is about after all, so let’s let ‘er rip!

  330. Gary

    Here is a very simple plan one could initiate at the open.

    Take partial profits here. Then if we get the pullback wait till gold makes a higher high before buying back in. At that point we would have a higher high and a higher low. That would pretty much confirm the intermediate bottom and one could then add in their margin with a stop below the lowest pivot.

    This will mean losing some profit potential but it will also lock in some profits just in case gold is going to make a lower low (which I doubt).

  331. Slumdog

    Gold continues to trade in the earlier, previously unclosed gap, 1357-67.

    Gaps according to others don’t exist in 24 x 5.5 trading. However, this recent performance and the last both are indisputable facts.

    Protest all you wish, the gaps are real, and the outcomes are clearly understandable.

    Direction traders have been raked.

  332. Slumdog

    Who besides Gary is a trustworthy source to be considered in the panoply of predictive stars?

    I will start.
    AGoldHamster at kitco and his own blog.


    QuadG at kitco.
    Major Market Movements https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=41880

    Of course, Jim Sinclair and Trader Dan as backgrounders

    Who else?

    Do appreciate that Gary is imo worth a very serious consideration, and for some here, full trust. Like many here, I make my own decisions, even if it means following someone else.

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