2B REVERSAL

We need a comment cleaner so I thought I would post the 2b reversal on the XLE for you short term traders. Hint: very tight stop with high risk reward ratio.

Explanation of the 2b reversal is in the terminology document for subscribers.

1,052 thoughts on “2B REVERSAL

  1. Gary

    I think everyone is trying to login to the nightly report at once. It seems to have temporarily crashed the site.

  2. Allenupl

    Gary, This is the error message I am getting when trying to access the premium subscriber site.

    PHP has encountered an Access Violation at 7D611952

    Hope this helps clear up the problem.

  3. pimaCanyon

    Redwine,

    Sorry, I misunderstood you. I thought your statement “all fiats eventually go to zero” was your way of saying fiats suck, we shouldn’t be using them, the dollar’s going to zero, buy a farm and start using barter. You were just making a statement, sorry I misunderstood the intent of your statement.

    You did get me thinking though. I’m thinking why does a fiat go to zero, whether it takes 20 years or 200? Seems to me it’s because the politicians promise more than they can deliver without spending more than they take in. So they print. And then the next question is “why do the politicians promise more than the government’s income can pay for?” And the answer is because the VOTERS tell them that’s what they want.

    So it’s not fiat currencies fault that they get printed into oblivion, but rather the politicians and ultimately the voters. Seems like the only fix is to either write into the Constitution that federal expenses cannot exceed tax revenues, or force the issue by using a currency backed by something of value.

    By the way, I doubt I have more faith in the dollar than you do. It’s just that living in the US, I haven’t figured out a way to not use dollars.

  4. Gary

    FWIW gold backing has never prevented a country or empire from debasing the currency.

    Human nature will always find a way to try to get something for nothing…and it will always lead to a big mess.

  5. Wes

    Poly,

    Your avatar looks like a Texas sharpshooter got hold of it.

    fyi: a Texas sharpshooter is one who fires at the broad side of a barn, walks over and circles the target.

    We may have a few on this blog.

  6. pimaCanyon

    Well, that’s interesting Gary.

    Can you give me an example of a currency that was backed by gold that got debased and as a result that country experienced inflation? And did that currency eventually go to zero?

    How would that work, that a currency that’s backed by gold would get debased? Wouldn’t users of the currency be able to go to their government and exchange the currency for gold? And if so, wouldn’t that keep inflation in check?

  7. Gary

    heck the US did it in the 30’s they confiscated gold and arbitrarily revalued it.

    Rome used actual gold and silver coins. A currency doesn’t get much sounder that that.

    When Rome couldn’t pay it’s debt it started clipping the coins.

    In the 70’s Nixon decided to close the gold window.

    Backing a currency with gold has never stopped human nature, at least not for very long 🙂

  8. Tudor

    “FWIW gold backing has never prevented a country or empire from debasing the currency.

    Human nature will always find a way to try to get something for nothing…and it will always lead to a big mess.”

    Which is why we don’t need a gold standard currency system, we need to use gold AS money, which would only come about via a free market in money. In other words, we would quit quoting prices in currency terms (dollar, euro, real, etc.) and instead use actual units of weight of gold.

    See Rothbards “What Has Government Done To Our Money?”:

    http://mises.org/money.asp

  9. Gary

    Probably too unwieldy for everyday use.

    I suspect we will just have to deal with these giant messes about every 80-100 years or at least until human nature changes.

  10. Tudor

    PC, the proof is in the pudding. Every major currency today that was around 100 years ago was backed by a gold standard. One by one the politicians took the gold backing away, sometimes in one fell swoop, other times via incremental steps.

  11. pimaCanyon

    So the only way around the devaluing problem, again, would be to write it into the Constitution.

    Doesn’t make sense that if you’re going to have a currency backed by gold that the government is allowed to redefine how many units of the currency it takes to buy an ounce of gold.

  12. Tudor

    Gary, using gold as money doesn’t mean carrying around physical gold. The gold could be kept on deposit in a bank (warehouse), and the receipts used in commerce. Electronic transfer of gold ownership would be possible also. James Turk’s GoldMoney is an excellent example.

  13. Tudor

    PC, absolutely right. Which is why legal tender laws should be trashed and people be allowed to determine what they want to use for money. Get the government out of the money business. Everybody believes that there is some great voodoo behind money that requires that government experts manage it.

  14. T.J. Rand

    Nope- can’t get in either.

    And, unfortunately, writing ‘no devaluation’ into the constitution wouldn’t do much- the constitution has been little more than silly putty since judicial activism breathed life into the idea of a ‘living, breathing’ constitution.

  15. Gary

    Tudor,
    I think your probably kidding yourself if you think politicians are going to voluntarily back the currency. They like to spend money too much. Buying votes and such.

    In theory gold as money or currency backed by gold is a great idea but in reality it will probably never happen. So we continue to suffer through these calamities from time to time.

    Heck we put Glass Steagal in place to prevent exactly what happened in 08/09. Human nature short circuited that one also.

  16. Tudor

    Gary, I think a gold standard is somewhat likely in the future, probably during my lifetime, but I’m fully aware that the repeal of legal tender laws are unlikely, as much as I’d like to see that happen.

    This is broadening the scope of the discussion we’re having, but the points you make about human nature and politicians are exactly why I believe democracy is a fundamentally flawed system. That has lead me to advocate anarcho-capitalism as the best way for a society to be ordered. (But I realize it THAT won’t happen.)

  17. 86d4life

    PC,
    Thinking on the balanced budget in the constitution; wasn`t that kind of the idea with the debt ceiling too and that`s barely an inconvenience anymore.

  18. Tudor

    Daniel,

    The LvMI is an incredible organization. If you haven’t already, you owe it to yourself to dig into their audiobook and podcast library.

  19. Tudor

    A balanced budget is a red herring. Congress could tax everybody in the private sector 90% and have a balanced budget. That would not negate the evil inherent in a system based on forcibly taking from some and giving it to others.

  20. Rob

    Okay, I must be retarded because I can’t find the 2b reversal explanation in the terminology document. Is it part of the 1-2-3 pattern?

    Can someone be so kind as to help out the needy?

  21. David

    Tudor,

    What would protect the interests of individuals such as ourselves from corporations or wealthy individuals under your system?

  22. Tudor

    David,

    Answer – the absence of government itself. Corporations and wealthy individuals engage in regulatory capture, in which they use their wealth and influence to harm us.

    Think of Goldman Sach’s influence at the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and at the highest levels of governments all over the world. As long as there is government, there will be people who seek to influence it at the expense of others. The idea is to take away the gun (the state) they use against us.

  23. Ryan

    Gary,

    I know our stops are based on gold. Now my question is if that’s hit, get out of everything right away or see what my AGQ etc. was at that level previously and then use that price as my stop? I hope that makes sense.

  24. ...at ease

    Ryan, I called my broker and had them walk me through putting in sell stop loss market orders for my options and other stocks (ie AGQ, SIL) using stop market triggers if GLD hit the trigger price Gary gave us. Easier than guessing what the others would be.
    Call them in the morning before the market opens.

  25. David

    Tudor,

    It seems you’re talking about delivering us from one form of oligarchy into the hands of another.

    In a nation without any laws or regulations whatsoever, the likes of Goldman (or whoever had a private militia) could simply seize assets at will — your home, your money, etc.

    As it stands we are already living under a form of oligarchy, where as you point out the Goldmans of the world buy and sell politicians and write legislation at will. But it’s hard to imagine how removing what few constraints remain will suddenly turn them into benevolent dictators. More likely it would turn the US into something like Russia.

    It may be that we’re headed for anarchocapitalusm as it is, but I doubt that it will feel like a utopia unless you’re Lloyd Blankfein.

  26. Tudor

    David,

    Except that the government that the oligarchs have so firmly in their control is the very organization that prevents us from defending ourselves against the…oligarchs. Government is based on the “legitimate” use of non-defensive force. You can’t fight back and defend yourself when they say someone else is allowed to rob you.

    A life of freedom and liberty is not a riskless endeavor. There’s the chance that stuff might happen that you don’t like. But I’d rather live free in a dangerous world than securely under the thumb of the paternal state.

  27. Ryan

    at ease,

    I don’t even know if I can do that at my broker. But I don’t know if I want to, I’ll just it has a mental stop and see how the action plays out before selling out. I guess that kind of answers my question, if our stop in gold gets hit, sell out of everything at market price at the time not what the previous price of AGQ etc. was.

  28. Tudor

    I don’t for a minute think the oligarchs would become benevolent. That’s why I don’t want the government around to let them become dictators!

  29. David

    Tudor,

    I certainly like the part where they don’t control the government anymore.

    But it seems a little idealistic to think that they wouldn’t then use their vast resources to simply expropriate wealth from the rest of us.

  30. Patung

    Gold looks seriously weak chartwise, not sure how relevant the dollar is right now provided it doesn’t completely crater; gold is largely in lock step with oil. Watch oil.

  31. Farm Girl

    “Oil prices extended losses below $104 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as traders eyed gains by Libyan rebels seeking to topple Moammar Gadhafi and restart crude exports from the OPEC nation.”

  32. Bruce

    Gary, you mentioned the ‘exhaustion’ candles in the NDX but you did mention the possible exhaustion candles in Gold, XAU & HUI when they occurred last week. Were you looking through the rose colored lenses of hope?

    Just asking, not needling.

    Also, have you possibly overlooked a coil forming on the silver chart? If so, your coil theory says the first move will be reversed. So it is possibly looking like silver will break down before making new highs?

    Low volume selloff in gold/silver overnight and a stronger $USD.

  33. Bruce

    I meant to say you did ‘not’ mention possible (at least short term) exhaustion candles in gold/xau/hui last week.

    It is increasingly looking like that is the case.

  34. Haggerty

    Gary

    Just curious. In the weekend report I think we said we were going to let Monday and Tuesday go by then put our stops in. Is that still the case? Or did I read it wrong?

  35. Tudor

    “I certainly like the part where they don’t control the government anymore.

    But it seems a little idealistic to think that they wouldn’t then use their vast resources to simply expropriate wealth from the rest of us.”

    David, the history of the state is one in which the government enables the very people you fear to take advantage of you. They are already doing what you contend they would do in an anarchistic system. But because the state has the monopoly use of force, if you fight back sufficiently, the state will kill you. Democracy is a system built upon force and coercian. Not exactly a civilized way to construct a society.

  36. Shalom Bernanke

    Tudor,

    Don’t let David fool you, he loves the current system and why not? It’s been good to him as he’s a multi-millionaire, and has even stated he supports a strong US presence in the Middle East (and now we’re in North Africa via Libya). American resources securing Israel’s backyard, without Israel spending a dime! 🙂

  37. Shalom Bernanke

    My focus is on adding NUGT, with some more SVM (ex-dividend today), and possibly some SIL.

    NUGT is new and only trades around 100,000 shares/day, so size accordingly.

  38. Allenupl

    Gary or others – Question on Gold stops:
    I am still confused on which pricing for gold to use for a stop. The Stockcharts.com “$Gold” only gets updated at the end of the day so can’t use that intraday (I don’t want to wait overnight to reduce positions if the stop is violated). Should we be using the spot gold price (Kitco) or the continuous futures contract “/GC” that some of us track on Thinkorswim? — those prices can vary widely some days.

    Also, I assume if the stop is violated we go back to a core position or are there other strategies to consider?
    Thanks.

  39. T.J. Rand

    Troll-

    I don’t know if you’re a subscriber or not, but your (occasional) comments have been universally negative when it comes to precious metals. Not of the “SELL! SELL! SELL!” variety, but more subtle – a comment here and there, always when there is a opening to promote a view of continued weakness.

    Maybe your name is just getting to me, but are you by chance a genuine troll? I’ve never actually met one, and it seems like a pretty good gig- I’d love a referral if you’re hiring. 🙂

  40. Gary

    Mission,
    Yes it is a 2b. Moving below $1382 would complete the 1-2-3 reversal.

    At that point I would exit all precious metal positions and we would unfortunately have to be satisfied with the gains we’ve made as the odds would then be that the intermediate cycle has topped in a left translated manner.

    Would I be disappointing? Yes certainly. I think we all would be. We were all looking for one more big leg up. But the reality is we’ve all made a ton of money in the last 6 months and I can be satisfied with that.

  41. sophia

    Gary, DG or others,

    If I want to sell energy, but not sell short XLE, is there another vehicule please? Thanks for your help

  42. jeff

    Gary

    Could we get a rundown of the sentiment , blees , ect

    Put together they are stll encouraging aren’t they?

  43. Gary

    Jeff,
    There is no doubt that sentiment, COT, fundamentals are all bullish.

    The only real negative it the degree that silver is stretched above the mean.

    But all those positives will go out the window if gold breaks $1382.

    I will not risk getting caught in a D-wave because I stubbornly refuse to accept what’s happening.

    If gold breaks $1382 then I’m out until I see some sign that gold is coming back (new highs).

  44. pimaCanyon

    Gary,

    I know you’re counting the 3/15 low on gold as a daily cycle low, so if we go below that we would be looking at the new daily cycle being left translated.

    But what about this: If we do go below the 3/15 low and then reverse higher, would it be possible to count the NEW low as the daily cycle low and NOT count the 3/15 as the daily cycle low?

    If we did that, the new low would end up being the end of a stretched cycle, right?

    (I’m just considering ways that the bull might throw us off and then continue the move up.)

  45. jlinks

    Can anyone please tell me what vehicle they use for their gold positions?

    I’m a new sub and already took my positions in GLD, but which vehicle follows the gold index?

  46. Daniel

    Shalom-
    We appreciate your buying optimism!
    Can you use some of our tax dollars and significantly move this PM market higher!

  47. pimaCanyon

    jlinks,

    GLD tracks gold spot and gold futures pretty accurately.

    There’s also IAU with a lower share price and it tracks gold accurately as well.

    I am using deep in the money call options on GLD for the portion of my portfolio I want to have in gold. But if you do that, be careful. It’s easy to get leveraged that way because each DITM call option controls 100 shares of GLD and you can buy a DITM call option for a fraction of what you have to pay for 100 shares of GLD.

  48. Gary

    PC,
    There’s little doubt about the last daily cycle low. But gold could break it and then reverse and move to a new high.

    That’s what it would take for me to re-enter if $1382 is breached.

    I would only go back in if the pattern of lower lows was reversed.

  49. funmike

    There has to be a tremendous amount of political pressure to keep the dollar from sinking. The Fed is certainly aware of the consequences which ironically is the basis of our strategy. How long before reality overcomes the political? That is the question before us.

  50. jlinks

    Thanks pimaCanyon

    My question is, when Gary says to pus stops at $1382 what fund is he talking about? GLD is trading at 138 right now

  51. pimaCanyon

    jlinks,

    I believe Gary tells you exactly where to put the stop on GLD in the stops and trade triggers doc on the premium website. Take a look.

  52. jlinks

    Thanks for the replies,

    I read the Stops and Triggers page. Which fund tracks the actual gold price that Gary talks about? When he says to pus a stop at $1382 he is not talking about GLD which trades much lower.

  53. T.J. Rand

    Funmike-

    It’s my belief that the Fed cannot and will not stop QE2. The continued weak housing data, unemployment, Europe, Japan, etc all portend continued weakness. So they are doing the next best thing to keep the dollar from shooting downward- they are jawboning – making noises about ending QE2 as if it were a legitimate option they would take. It is no accident that multiple Fed presidents emerged within 1 day of each other with basically the same message, that QE2 might need to end.

    Politically, however, the end of QE would collapse equity prices and this close to the 2012 elections, begin to shift sentiment against the current administration – something the Fed never wants to do.

    So they are playing a cat and mouse game to try to get an orderly dollar decline. This will only work for so long, IMHO.

    The true test of the PMs will be in early April after all the eom Comex stuff is past us.

  54. archrival

    The general market looks great here!

    Many quality stocks breaking out, miners should come along for the ride although they will underperform.

  55. Eamonn

    Would someone be so kind to explain to a dumbwit why (Gary) “the only real negative it the degree that silver is stretched above the mean”? Which mean is that and what symbol should I use in stockcharts.com to see it?

  56. funmike

    That is why Gary gave the alternative stop with GLD instead of the actual gold. The point of the $1382 is based on the gold chart and the point of direction change.

  57. pimaCanyon

    Eamonn,

    Stretched above the mean usually refers to how far price is above a moving average. I believe Gary uses 200 daily simple moving average, but you could use others. 50 day, 65 day, 100 day, etc.

  58. pimaCanyon

    jlinks,

    PLEASE read the Stops and Trade Triggers doc again. GLD is in that doc and the trigger or stop for GLD is there also. You might have to scroll down.

  59. DG

    Just a thought ahead of time for everyone: The closer gold gets to $1382 (which it hopefully won’t!), the better the trade that gets setup. For myself, if we get down there I will but a ton at, say $1390, with a stop at $1382. If we hold you make a killing, if not you lose nickels. Tight stop opportunities are not to be wasted as the risk/reward is tremendous.

  60. jlinks

    Thanks funmike

    I was under the impression that I can actually hold positions on gold ounces somewhere and enter a stop order of $1382

  61. DG

    archrival: You just make yourself look silly with comments like that to SB. He has made more money in miners than you probably will in your whole life (as have many, many people here). Stocks may or may not go up, but why talk to others that way? You will never get any respect here with nonsense like that and you really do make yourself just look ridiculous. I laughed when I read what you wrote.

  62. Shalom Bernanke

    Well, I did the buying I had planned for today. Nothing to do now but let the stops work, so I’m also going to step away for the day.

    Good luck everybody. We’ll need some patience but Everything is OK.

  63. DG

    Since Gary is gone I can say this: If you want to be short something, consider the Q’s The reversed from a high of 57.22 and are close to that now, so a good play would be shorting near that number and covering immediately if they tick above it negating the reversal. Discipline is required! But you know exactly what your risk is (not much) and the gain would be many times that risk. If the Q’s drop much, put in a mental stop at your cost.

  64. Jayhawk

    86-

    I hope it’s right!

    Also looks a little like an inverse H&S or a bull flag if you like those in addition to the C&H. All with the same target with a good break up. 56 if my maths are right. 🙂

  65. Poly

    “We’ll need some patience but Everything is OK.”

    We will be more than OK, but unfortunately many here want results now, this minute, today! 🙂

  66. Poly

    Same pattern as yesterday, over night drop and then a day of grinding back to even for the day.

    There doesn’t seem to be any real fire in the belly of this beast needed to drive those lottery options. I’m going to dump at least half of them shortly.

  67. Allenupl

    Pima and all,
    I also am having trouble figuring our which gold instrument to use for a stop (I understand GLD!). Does the 1382 stop apply to the spot price or a continuous gold futures contract.

    Sorry for the bother but after many months of being a subscriber to Gary’s service I am still unclear about this. Thanks.

  68. 86d4life

    Jayhawk,
    Hey, I just went back and looked again and saw the I H&S. Missed it the first time, but how can a guy argue with that? I saw the bull flag that you outlined as the handle right away.

    Open question to the board; when we see multiple technichal formations on a chart at the same time, does it add strength to the formations?

  69. funmike

    I am not sure that you can use the actual gold for a stop. The idea of a stop is that if the actual gold price drops below $1382 then you would want to get out. In order to facilitate the stop you would use the equivalent GLD reading.

  70. ahain1223

    @86D

    I believe technicals are open for interpretation 86. Infact i would go as far as to say that technicals are purposely random in terms of reliability. Check out www(dot)effectivevolume(dot)eu or www(dot)alphascanner(dot)com (check out the blog)

  71. 86d4life

    Ahain,

    I see your point. Maybe, `Volume is the truth`?

    Just wondering; is anybody having troubles with the site again? I couldnt acess the new site.

  72. Poly

    “silver looks nice above 37….”

    Yes agree, but IMO, she will need big brother (gold) to come to the party sooner rather later! Otherwise she will start to look rather naked up at those heights.

  73. Matthew

    I am a little confused what happened to get in now she is about to explode, last chance, etc,.. referring to miners, gold, silver, etc…is everyone here during the day a trader?

  74. DG

    archrival: My point is still the same regardless. Why come on here with an attitude? If you want to contribute, do. If you want to learn, do. Otherwise what’s the point? “Hey, look what you’re missing!” is not helpful. He asked for names of stocks you are buying and you still haven’t said. That might (might) actually be useful. “Dow 15,000 here we come!” is not. Beanie was a real pain like that which is why he is starting to call you that. (Hopefully he has left) Useful contributors are always welcome.

  75. ahain1223

    @86

    I think volume is a large part of it. HFTs have made tape reading impossible. I think the most important thing to remember with volume is that pros are buying on weakness and selling on strength

  76. DG

    Matthew: Conditions are always changing. “What happened to…” just means things have changed. The HUI breakout failed. That’s new and requires a change of attitude. Ignoring new information will make one poor. Very few here are traders, BTW.

  77. ahain1223

    @DG

    Your comment provoked a thought. The question i have is what information constitutes a change of plan and what information does not. Because on the one hand if we took all new information then we would be traders so as investors what would you consider as information that qualifies. So would you say that the only information that qualifies as investor is “price”?

  78. Poly

    Matthew,

    I was one of them screaming, but no day trading. My comments, were based on a new gold cycle that had just begun in conjunction with a dollar drop. If this was going to be the start of a blow-off top and one of the last couple of daily cycles for this entire C-Wave, it would have to explode at that point, IMO.

    It’s still not too late of course, but with the cycle starting to get deep into the count, an upside explosion becomes less likely, quickly. That’s not to say the picture is bearish, far from it and nothing sold, stops are in place. Just will require more patience. Of course Gary is the one to listen to, the rest of us do throw off a lot of noise 🙂

  79. Matthew

    Hmmm..Thanks DG. I guess I am trying to put Gary’s nightly writings in perspective. A couple of days ago it was this train is leaving get on and yesterday it was uh it might be time to get off..that to me seems like a trader. an investor would say here is the market info and this is not easily going to change in the next 3-6 months (whatever time frame). this is how you should invest…

  80. DG

    ahain: No there are lots of things that inform my decision, including volume, various divergences, response to news, etc. Even a non-trader is often deciding whether to add and how much. Taking information does not necessarily mean acting on it. As well, it is helpful to be mentally prepared for things that may soon come to pass. The key is to have a scenario in kind, but hold it loosely. Kind of like skiing: you know where you are going but need to be relaxed enough to handle bumps that show up. At least this is how I do it (I both trade and hold). The “Plan” is a stop at gold $1382, but there is lots of dancing around that that can happen.

  81. Poly

    “yesterday it was uh it might be time to get off”

    Gary reports have never said that. The previous cycle dictate the stops and when to get out, the rest is just discussion around the confidence of the current cycle/setup.

    If you’re a subscriber, you have to all of the portfolio changes issued, they are very few and far between!

  82. DG

    Matthew: Gary has NOT said to get off. He is simply saying what events need to happen to know it is time to get off. If he stayed enthusiastically bullish every day, regardless of what was happening, and then one day (when the stop was hit) said “O.K. now sell everything” he’d seem crazy. I prefer to get the PM’s temperature taken often. No action has been suggested.

  83. Beksachi

    Are we out of the woods?

    This clips shows fundamentals still very strong- gold demand in China is there.

    Maybe the short term inflation panic into pms occurs in Asia and not in USA…I am a little concerned that we expect XLE to go down soon….won’t this mitigate the public jumping to PMs?

  84. Intern

    DG,

    You ever go all in with your investable assets? Or always have some dry powder? And does all of your portfolio have tight stops or do you give a percentage of or certain trades wider stops?

    Thanks

  85. Matthew

    Thanks..Not trying to inflame anyone just trying to make sense of the methods here and what I have gathered so far… So basically stops are set at 1382 for gold..not sure what stops are in place for miners… so if that is taken out then it is official that it is time to take what you have off the table?? I assume that it is a touch stop not a 15 min bar below, etc.

  86. jeff

    Mathew

    If you saw my post that I bailed
    That was just me
    I was over leveraged ( bad bad jeff )
    That was not garys call

  87. DG

    Intern: I am not all in and virtually never are. I have two kinds of positions: tight stop trades and longer term holds. The PM’s are longer term, for example. XLE short was done for a chart reason so the stop is when the pattern is violated. I’ll take almost any trade if there is a good natural nearby stop because my risk is tiny. Once I get way in the black I have room and can let things move around (like AGQ), but I never take get into a situation where I show a large loss, regardless. A lot of my work revolves around entry points so that doesn’t happen.

  88. DG

    Matt: Gold runs the show. If $1382 is violated you sell everything, miners included, according to Gary’s plan, because if $1382 is broken something is wrong.

  89. DG

    Matt: If you are not a subscriber you should be. It’s the best money you’ll ever spend and you will always be lost and a little behind trying to trade off the blog. I have made a pile off it and have been trading for decades. Improved my game a ton.

  90. Mike

    I also recommend subscribing to Doc www(dot)thedocument(dot)com

    He follows cycles like Gary and is complimentary – catches insights that Gary does not and vice versa. Both subscriptions are dirt cheap and have paid for themselves for a lifetime in my case.

    I figure I’m this invested in PM’s it is nice to have both viewpoints to ensure all angles are covered.

  91. Eamonn

    Poly, are you a full time investor? From reading your posts, you seem very well tuned into what is going on, and know what you are talking about

  92. DG

    Jeff: No firm answer as to how to buy a breakout. There are a number of ways each of which is reasonable and each of which has drawbacks and advantages depending on what your reasonable goals are (re risk, maximizing gain, etc.) Gary’ll let you know when he would do it.

  93. whitebear

    Put my stop on AGQ at 208. I’m not willing to ride it all the way back down to 174. The test of breakout should hold us, SLV 35.75ish. If it doesn’t, I want out and will reassess the landscape at that time.

  94. Poly

    Thanks Eamonn. No I hold down a career in the financial enterprise software space.

    There are many bright and talented people on this blog, starting with the blog owner. I read a lot, all the time, so most of what I say is probably just other peoples thoughts 🙂
    I like to keep an eye and ear on the pulse of the tape, that has always been of interest to me.

  95. Yash

    whitebear – I think ma20 205 is easily testable .. so i think 208 is little tight. below 205 I can agree to sell. just my 2c

  96. T.J. Rand

    It doesn’t feel like it, but we look like we are setting up a swing high in the dollar today, and swing low in Gold later this week if we can close above 1438.08.

  97. Avann

    I’ve already booked some profits … this consolidation has lasted too long for my itchy finger … I went back to core position this morning.
    I will be back on a confirmed swing high … somewhere around 1430 gold … but that could change as this grinds lower …

  98. DG

    I’m of course not disrespecting anyone, but I was concerned about all the blog entries about buying calls when we were near the highs. Buying them at an IT low would not have troubled me, but I have never seen so many posts here about call buying before. The emotionally easy trade is usually the most dangerous one. It did get me to stop adding to my AGQ stash.

  99. whitebear

    Yash,

    Thanks for the 2c. I will consider the 205 area. Today, I was looking for a wide range UP day, out of this consol. Maybe it comes tomorrow…

    My gut feels fishy. Which it wasn’t at the last pullback to 174.
    I am still bullish. /SI had nice back test of trendline, just now. But, I want out if they pull the carpet.

  100. Ryan

    I asked this before and never really got a firm answer but just to clarify again. If we have stops on gold at 1382 then we sell all positions at current market price not at what the previous price was when gold was at 1382? So for example lets say AGQ was $174 when gold was at 1382. If gold gets to 1382, we sell AGQ at whatever the market price is NOT where it was previously? Is that correct? Hopefully I won’t freak and sell before stops.

  101. Avann

    DG … I don’t buy options, I don’t leverage and I was in right at the bottom … silver $27. With the double ETF I’m up over 60% … I think that makes it much easier for me to step aside at this point. I have no problem buying back higher but do not want to see my 60+% turn into 25%.

  102. ...at ease

    My feelings were I want to lower my position, as I see nothing happening, but then I realized that my thoughts were becoming negative. Isnt’ that a sign to buy when others are jumping off.
    I think it’s just bordeom.

  103. hiptwist

    DG said: “Tight stop opportunities are not to be wasted as the risk/reward is tremendous.”

    I completely agree. But the entry here is the “easy” part. What do you use as exit beside the SL at about 1382?

  104. Avann

    … at ease, I will also employ DG’s suggestion (IF, big IF) it comes to that.
    If this keeps inching lower I will unleash what I just sold and buy it all back around 1390 with that tight stop at 1382.
    I sincerely hope it does not come to that but those are my 2 options … buy back on a swing low or gamble at 1390.

  105. DG

    hip: I meant for anything, not just gold. If there is a clear stop in XYZ at 30.50 I will but it at 30.60…why not? The stop in gold is a whole different story because it makes a lower low. (Did I misunderstand you?)

  106. DG

    Avann: That won’t work, because once 1382 is violated we will have made a lower low which will call into question whether we have entered a D wave or not. If 1382 is violated you just get out and stay out until a higher high is made. I will buy above but near 1382 and sell everything if we break 1382

  107. William

    $36.30 is proving to be very tough resistance for SLV. Touched it twice yesterday with no success and moved straight up to it earlier today before falling back down. If SLV can get through that level hopefully we will see a quick pop higher.

  108. Poly

    I know you’re working with a tight stop and not much to lose, but I doubt that trade would have much chance of success purely because we just don’t belong down there.

    For me the number is $1,405 which would probably see me exit a good chunk of my July Calls, purchase at the IT lows.

    You may want to consider right here, right now as being a great candidate to be fully invested and leveraged, with a tight stop of say $1,405. It’s at this junction we should be ready to rally after 4-5 days of going backwards.

  109. Poly

    I don’t know Eamonn, but its a good candidate due to the days left in the cycle, low sentiment, dollar been up some days now and sideways trend for 5 days. If it’s going to rally, these next few days would be where one could expect it to occur.

    The entire trend line from the IT lows through the recent daily cycle lows would be violated around $1,407, that would not be good action IMO.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p65967473473&a=229521473

  110. DG

    Poly: A good point. I think either approach can work. A agree that we don’t belong down there, but I believe trendlines are often broken just to run the stops since so many people look at trendlines. False breakouts/breakdowns are common. Seems to me each approach has weaknesses (or everyone would be rich by now!), but both seem reasonable to me.

    Got faked out of my FCX short yesterday as it made the new several-day high only to cave into the close. Phony breakout. Sigh.

  111. Avann

    Yes … I see that … good point … I may try that one as well but I’ll wait to see if we get any closer. Perhaps around 1410.

  112. Poly

    Eamonn, I think Gary offers the easiest and most worry free trading plan, it takes much of the thought and stress out of it. Some of just love the stress 🙂

  113. DG

    XLE short stopped out. Violating the reversal high means pattern has failed. If you did it you have to cover now, and be prepared to watch it go lower. This sort of trade takes discipline or you may wake up and find it at 84! If you can’t pull the trigger on the cover, don;t take the trade.

  114. Sandy101

    DG/Avann,

    Can tight stops be implemented in reality in gold/silver.

    Most big moves have come in overnight hours. What if gold opens 30-50 $ down! This has happened many times.

  115. DG

    Sandy: 50$ down? Not likely, but if that happens you take the hit. If gold closes above the line and gaps through it, you lose. But even then $45 is only 3% or so.

  116. hiptwist

    DG said: “Did I misunderstand you?”

    Yes, I obviously wasn’t clear: If you can buy some Gold at 1390 and it doesn’t break the SL at 1382. What is your strategy to take profits? Trailing SL, touching the upper BB band, … ?!

  117. jeff

    Ok I’m on the iPhone but
    My broker was showing me some patterns
    First recent high we had and then 6 down days then 6 up
    Now recent high and 3 down up to this point

    Go back to the 3 tops through December
    See the 40 dollar down days? Well they are 18 days Apart
    Hmmm kinda makes me wonder
    Little top cycles? Weekly wiggle cycles?

  118. Sandy101

    Mr Miyagi,

    I am not saying this is what always happens. I am saying how do we implement stops if this happens. I do clearly remmeber this happening a number of times over the last 1-2 years. Maybe, somebody has hard data on this.

    Having said that, I sure as hell hope it doesn’t happen! I am 100 % invested and want PMs to keep going up.

  119. MrMiyagi

    I hear you, as a Canadian investor, I have even less trading ability; no extended hours, nothin’, unless I open a forex account which ddoesn’t interest me.

  120. Avann

    Sandy, this is true and since I use ETF’s that’s a risk I’ll have to consider when the time comes.
    I guess it will depend on the time of day. I most likely would not be willing to risk it if it’s near the close of the day.

  121. Sandy101

    Hope it works out for all of us and PMs resume their climb soon.

    This bull is throwing lot of curve balls. If it was not for Gary’s calm reasoning, I would have gone nuts by now.

  122. Avann

    Sandy. I’m with you … I am not very interested in the alternate plan … I would be much happier to see gold go to 1430 and have to buy back in higher.

  123. MrMiyagi

    XLK, tech spyder, slowing down past last 2 days, don’t know what it means exactly but the masses usually pour into techs and lose the most money there.

  124. DG

    Hip: Gold bull legs end in froth. I will sell when a novice friend asks me “Hey, should I buy some gold?” Or there’s a line at my local coin dealer, or…you get the idea. You’ll be able to tell. Other than that it’ll be a stop on the way down. I’m going for a kill here and don;t mind losing some profits to try to hang in there (o.k.. I do mind, but there’s no good alternative!)

  125. blammo

    DG and AVANNN/Sandy are a good illustration of two differing strategies for this run.

    1. Bet heavy and be prepared to give up a big chunk of previous profits and hope to hit a multi-bagger.

    2. Take some off the table here and secure your profits though you have to buy in higher if (when?) the bull gets going again.

    I am with DG but can understand Sandy/AVANN as well. I manage a couple family member’s ports and have scaled back their holdings putting them in camp 2 as well.

    Camp 3 would be newcomers who don’t have the tailwind behind them (previous profits) and will need to act accordingly.

  126. wingwalker

    Poly,
    I think that’s a great chart you posted and very good stop loss point for any position add’s. One way I’ve managed to avoid having my stops run, is to confirm the violation of the trendline & therefore exit the trade. Personally I like to give the trend line a little leeway so I usually say that the stock needs to trade below the low of the day that breaks the trendline before I exit the position. So the first day it breaks the trendline I don’t sell. If on the 2nd day it trades below the low of the first day I sell it. I find this has limited the amount of times I’ve been stopped out and then the stock or index turns around and immediately turns higher.

    I found this method in Morales & Kacher’s book. Which isn’t an awful read if anyone’s looking for a stock picking / trend following book.

    Of course, I always have my max % loss on a position and if it hits that it’s gone.

  127. ALEX

    GARY SAID D-WAVE??

    Blogger Gary said…

    Jeff,
    There is no doubt that sentiment, COT, fundamentals are all bullish.

    The only real negative it the degree that silver is stretched above the mean.

    But all those positives will go out the window if gold breaks $1382.

    I will not risk getting caught in a D-wave because I stubbornly refuse to accept what’s happening.

    If gold breaks $1382 then I’m out until I see some sign that gold is coming back (new highs).

    March 29, 2011 6:35 AM

    Last week someone said C-Wave over and he STRONGLY said he NEVER EVER saw a C-wave end without a blow off top, and that if 1382 broke, C-wave top/3Yr low in $$ may be delayed till fall. HHMM, what happened?
    Then he ridiculed chart tech guys saying they were “idiots drawing a line on the chart’ and thats why they are missing the big C-wave.

    Wow, how much a week changes!! 🙂 haha

    I am on vacation and thx to the guys on here that wished me a good one last wk ( Silverman, traderlady and a few others), great blog as usual! I dont have time to read it all 🙁

    Just getting caught up on last nights report and this blog…gary shocked me with that above blog this a.m.. LOL

  128. ...at ease

    No action or little in GLD. I have never seen the one minute ticker just stay at the same price for so long all day long (two days now).
    It’s just hovering within .50cents. Has anyone seen this kind of inaction before? Any tell tale signs?

  129. Sandy101

    Blammo,

    I am actually in camp 1. 100 % invested (no leverage) in PM portfolio (AGQ/SIL/SLW).

    Sitting tight but I am apprehensive, since if Gary’s stop is hit, most of my accumulated profits will be gone.

  130. ALEX

    P.S.

    Anyone follow me in on SHZ a week ago, I will sell if it goes above (or retests) the high of March 23 with lighter volume (just to be safe and take profit), if it goes above on stronger vol than it had March 23, target $650+ and i stay in .

    Take care everyone, keep up the good posts, makes for good reading at late night 🙂

  131. T.J. Rand

    DG-

    Your ‘there’s no good alternative’ comment is why I don’t know where else I’d put $ right now save for PMs. Equities? Don’t trust ’em. Bonds? End of a 30 yr bull any month now. Other commodities? Don’t know enough about them…and PMs should move with them.

    The only other place I’d consider parking funds are in other currencies- Singapore $, Norwegian Krone, or even Remnembi come to mind as currencies that should stand up better than a crummy US $.

  132. DG

    Alex: Hope you’re having a great time! Gary is only suggesting that if $1382 is broken one must consider that a D-wave has started. He also said he’d never seen one like this so it’s pretty darn unlikely…but anything is possible, and we need to know what the parameters are.

  133. jeff

    alex

    yep, it seems we are stalled here, but all indicators are ok, a little dollar rally.
    not sure but,
    i think the 3 year cycle low might be this fall. that might be the problem. other than that wild guess, beats me =)
    ( we were rather pumped up for the highspeed train to come buy about 150 mph)

  134. Poly

    Wingwalker,

    I too would give the trend line some flexibility, maybe a break that recovers is OK, dont know until uit happens and how one feels about the move. To DG’s point, they do run the stops and that trend line is fairly obvious.

    I will check out that book, thanks.

  135. Avann

    I know Gary doesn’t do his analysis based on seasonality but if you look at last year this pattern played out exactly like this year. January decline, February up, March consolidation and April/May/June all up.
    Maybe there’s something to it?
    Even 2009 has similar characteristics … perhaps a couple of weeks earlier.

  136. whitebear

    Price action is tightening up. Inside day on AGQ, and friends. There will be an expansion day soon, IMO. Tomorrow is likely, although maybe they cue it with some news.

    SLV, perfect test of breakout, same with AGQ at 211. It should go much higher from here. My stop stands at 208 on AGQ. If they shake me, so be it. I don’t have a problem buying high and selling higher.

  137. ALEX

    DG and JEFF

    Thanks for your reply-I’m not worried too much..I just remember last weeks comments when people panicked, and then to say the C-wave could have peaked and d-wave start…odd. I do have internet access here ( I just hate using it on Vacation 🙂 so I will watch a few things too.

    Its definitely a dollar dilemma –
    out for now..take care everyone.

    Jayhawk..some nice charts earlier, thx

  138. EricH

    Despite the market strength, the miners are having trouble staying in the green. This is not the type of performance you would expect from a sector ready to ‘bust out’.

  139. sophia

    traderlady,

    the only thing that worries me is the comments of Bullard and co about addressing inflation…more talks like that and people are going to buy back their shorts dollar….

  140. Haggerty

    You know I’m not really a chart guy. But every thing looks decent. If you look at the post “Breakout Imminent” Gary showed the triangle consolidation on the HUI and right now we are sitting right on that 550 line. Everyday we have like this is a chance for the averages to catch up.

  141. David

    Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). It currently stands at 67%, which means that the average gold timer is allocating two thirds of his gold portfolio to gold and gold-related investments, keeping only one third in cash.

    To appreciate just how much bullishness this represents, consider that the highest the HGNSI has risen to over the last two years is 71.9%, only slightly higher than today’s reading. Over the last five years, furthermore, the HGNSI has never gotten higher than 75.2%.

    In other words, the current HGNSI reading is within close shouting distance to what in recent years has been the highest level to which bullish sentiment has risen in the gold market.

    According to contrarian analysis, of course, the odds are against the majority point of view — especially a majority as big and strong as the one that exists currently in the gold market.”

  142. Hot Rod

    Haggerty,

    That is definitely the bright light right now, a waiting game for the averages, bollinger band, etc. to settle a bit.

    I definitely do not like how silver is drifting sideways-lower but have no real cause of concern other than stupid mindgames.

    The situation with JPM getting the vault and the CFTC delay is super sketchy. Manipulation or no manipulation.

  143. David

    The above is a sentiment reading from Mark Hulbert of Marketwatch.

    FWIW, his readings have been dead on throughout this C-wave. This is the first time they’ve turned bearish.

    Just another data point…

  144. Redwine

    David

    I may be mistaken but don’t think this SUBSET represents anywhere near the majority of gold buyers/sellers.

    Consider the rest of the world.

  145. Poly

    Time will tell! (yes how cliche)

    Big bull play certainly still on the cards here, at this action could be flagging. This type of movement does lend itself well to voilent moves, in either direction.

    I’m off for the day, later all.

  146. DG

    67% is as high as it’s been recently but at the C-wave top I bet it’s over 80%. The rest of the gold world is not at all overheated yet, even if newsletter writer exposure is slightly. If memory serves, at the 1978 SPX top is was 97% for stocks!

  147. David

    This is not a call for the end if the bull market, as Hulbert points out.

    It’s just a sign that bullishness is now very high amongst gold investors. Sentiment is finally catching up to the gold price.

    In my opinion, we need to see a breakout in the next few days or Gary’s parabolic move is off the table for now.

  148. Mike

    I lightened up a bit on silver’s bounce higher today and locked in some profits.

    The dollar is throwing us a curve ball here and I did not feel comfortable being leveraged under that scenario. Now I can sleep more comfortably 😉

  149. Aaron

    oa, thats misleading, the USDX has been up every other day. UUP tries to mimic the move, so its not the best of gauges.

  150. Veronica

    I’m feeling a little uncomfortable after the last 2 days.Pit gold was down today, so a ray of hope may come with a Userx up close.

  151. DG

    David: Fair enough. With bullishness this high if we just sit around for days and days the many longs will get itchy I suspect (I’m feeling it!)

  152. hiptwist

    OK, to divert from the dreaded D-Wave I’ll post some statistics. A thing, I haven’t done for a while on this blog.

    Some weeks ago there were discussions about the validity of the BoW/SoS data of GLD.
    I did some backtests and wanted to present the results in two posts.

    Part one: The reference to compare against

    Backtest: 2007-05-01 to 2011-03-28
    Quotes: Gold price London price fixing AM and PM
    Holding period 1d

    1. sequential Buys/Sells with breaks
    2007-05-01 Buy 677.50
    2007-05-02 Sell 673.25
    2007-05-03 Buy 675.90
    2007-05-04 Sell 680.80

    AM Fixing
    ALL +265 | -230 | >0 54 | G 0.15 | u 1.45
    PM Fixing
    ALL +263 | -228 | >0 54 | G 0.05 | u 1.33

    2. sequential Buys/Sells without breaks
    2007-05-01 Buy 677.50
    2007-05-02 Sell 673.25
    2007-05-02 Buy 673.25
    2007-05-03 Sell 675.90

    AM Fixing
    ALL +529 | -461 | >0 53 | G 0.09 | u 1.45
    PM Fixing
    ALL +542 | -440 | >0 55 | G 0.09 | u 1.40

    E.g. the last line can be interpreted as follows: There were 542 holding periods PM-Fixing to PM-Fixing with increasing gold prices. This are 55% of all days with an average gain of 0.09% and a standard deviation of 1.4.

    The most interesting part here is the discrepancy in gains of 0.15% vs 0.05% between AM and PM fixing with sequential buys and sells with breaks. Obviously these breaks can make a big difference but this is just noise when compared to the standard-deviation.

  153. hiptwist

    Part 2: Buying and selling at London AM gold fixing according to BoW/SoS data

    Backtest: 2007-05-01 to 2011-03-28
    Quotes: Gold price London price fixing AM
    Signals: GLD BoW/SoS data total volume (including block trades)
    Buy the next day at 11AM London time when a buy-signal occured

    1. Holding period 1d
    SoS < x Mio
    -100 + 4 | – 6 | >0 40 | G -0.18 | u 0.91
    -050 + 9 | – 10 | >0 47 | G -0.02 | u 1.11
    -040 + 14 | – 14 | >0 50 | G 0.10 | u 1.16
    -030 + 24 | – 21 | >0 53 | G 0.13 | u 1.10
    -020 + 35 | – 36 | >0 49 | G 0.02 | u 1.20
    -010 + 47 | – 52 | >0 47 | G -0.08 | u 1.30
    +000 + 82 | – 90 | >0 48 | G -0.08 | u 1.50

    BoW > x Mio
    000 + 74 | – 52 | >0 59 | G 0.24 | u 1.63
    010 + 41 | – 30 | >0 58 | G 0.06 | u 1.32
    020 + 23 | – 16 | >0 59 | G 0.03 | u 1.40
    030 + 16 | – 16 | >0 50 | G -0.16 | u 1.42
    040 + 12 | – 11 | >0 52 | G -0.11 | u 1.47
    050 + 10 | – 7 | >0 59 | G 0.03 | u 1.65
    100 + 2 | – 1 | >0 67 | G 0.62 | u 1.04

    2. Holding period 5d
    SoS < x Mio
    -100 + 5 | – 4 | >0 56 | G 0.34 | u 2.05
    -050 + 8 | – 8 | >0 50 | G 0.16 | u 2.35
    -040 + 12 | – 10 | >0 55 | G 0.21 | u 2.26
    -030 + 22 | – 15 | >0 59 | G 0.33 | u 2.31
    -020 + 32 | – 26 | >0 55 | G 0.14 | u 2.46
    -010 + 40 | – 35 | >0 53 | G -0.10 | u 2.82
    +000 + 56 | – 53 | >0 51 | G -0.05 | u 2.92

    BoW > x Mio
    000 + 46 | – 40 | >0 53 | G 0.35 | u 3.19
    010 + 35 | – 24 | >0 59 | G 0.46 | u 3.07
    020 + 20 | – 15 | >0 57 | G 0.27 | u 3.38
    030 + 14 | – 15 | >0 48 | G -0.48 | u 2.44
    040 + 12 | – 9 | >0 57 | G -0.18 | u 2.55
    050 + 9 | – 7 | >0 56 | G 0.03 | u 2.84
    100 + 2 | – 1 | >0 67 | G 1.05 | u 3.32

    E.g. the last line can be interpreted as follows: There were 2 holding periods AM-fixing to AM-fixing 5 days later with increasing gold prices and a BoW-total volume of >100 Mio. This are 67% of all days with an average gain of 1.05% and a standard deviation of 3.32.

    My resumee when examining these results: There might be some value to the signals with big volume (<-100 Mio and >100 Mio) but there are by far not enough samples to be statistically significant (should at least be >30 cases). The rest ist just noise.

  154. DG

    hiptwist: I think one of the questions regarded clusters. That is, if there is $35 million SoS for five out of seven days (or something like that) does that have any predictive value? Can your data answer that question? Thanks for doing the homework, BTW

  155. ...at ease

    Hearing fears of double dip inflation. Also noticing that anywhere I shop (online) I am getting LOTS of emails with everything, I mean EVERYTHING on sale rather than specific items.
    Just a market FYI sentiment.

  156. Moneyman

    Alex!

    Clarkatroid was very nervous yesterday over Gary’s a bit negative vibes.

    Very unusual since Gary has been the security self lately.

    Have not seen clarkatroid in here today..He talked about his nervousness and that he wanted to drink some alcohol. Lol!

  157. Avann

    My chart shows DX high yesterday = 76.435 … Today = 76.432.

    So I guess that’s a swing high.
    I’m not sure how relevant that is.

  158. hiptwist

    For all those who don’t understand what I’m talking about: Check out the old blog comments via Google search “site:smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com BoW SoS”. In short, there was a discussion, wether buying on strength/selling on weakness data published by the WSJ is indicative for the future price of GLD.

    I just realized, that I used block trade volume in my last post (part 2) above instead of total volume. So I recalculated the lower two tables with total volume again:

    2. Holding period 5d
    SoS < x Mio
    -100 + 5 | – 4 | >0 56 | G 0.34 | u 2.05
    -050 + 11 | – 7 | >0 61 | G 0.32 | u 2.40
    -040 + 14 | – 11 | >0 56 | G 0.31 | u 2.46
    -030 + 22 | – 17 | >0 56 | G 0.17 | u 2.32
    -020 + 33 | – 26 | >0 56 | G 0.07 | u 2.59
    -010 + 43 | – 35 | >0 55 | G 0.06 | u 2.51
    +000 + 55 | – 61 | >0 47 | G -0.15 | u 2.61

    BoW > x Mio
    000 + 55 | – 35 | >0 61 | G 0.35 | u 3.26
    010 + 37 | – 22 | >0 63 | G 0.53 | u 3.02
    020 + 20 | – 18 | >0 53 | G -0.23 | u 2.29
    030 + 14 | – 12 | >0 54 | G -0.26 | u 2.39
    040 + 9 | – 7 | >0 56 | G 0.06 | u 2.82
    050 + 9 | – 5 | >0 64 | G 0.34 | u 2.87
    100 + 2 | – 1 | >0 67 | G 1.05 | u 3.32

    As expected, almost the same result, as block trades are the biggest part of the total
    volume.

    DG, I thought your trade with entry at 1390 was a short term trade… therefore my question. For your query – stay tuned 🙂

  159. hiptwist

    OK, by special request of DG here the results for a cluster analysis:
    Signal, when the average total volume of the last 5 or 10 days is > or < as BoW/SoS
    Holding period: 5d

    SMA(5)
    SoS < x Mio
    -30 + 5 | – 5 | >0 50 | G -0.18 | u 2.26
    -25 + 8 | – 5 | >0 62 | G 0.46 | u 2.84
    -20 + 8 | – 9 | >0 47 | G -0.02 | u 1.90
    -15 + 13 | – 13 | >0 50 | G -0.09 | u 2.31
    -10 + 16 | – 17 | >0 48 | G -0.20 | u 2.48 *
    -05 + 39 | – 26 | >0 60 | G 0.19 | u 2.83
    +00 + 69 | – 63 | >0 52 | G 0.10 | u 2.91
    BoW > x Mio
    00 + 53 | – 36 | >0 60 | G 0.29 | u 3.27
    05 + 24 | – 17 | >0 59 | G 0.79 | u 2.33
    10 + 12 | – 3 | >0 80 | G 1.26 | u 1.91 *
    15 + 5 | – 2 | >0 71 | G 1.07 | u 2.18
    20 + 5 | – 1 | >0 83 | G 1.39 | u 2.20
    25 + 2 | – 1 | >0 67 | G 1.10 | u 3.23
    30 + 2 | – 1 | >0 67 | G 1.10 | u 3.23

    SMA(10)
    SoS < x Mio
    -30 + 6 | – 3 | >0 67 | G 0.27 | u 2.25
    -25 + 7 | – 2 | >0 78 | G 0.57 | u 2.34
    -20 + 7 | – 3 | >0 70 | G 0.28 | u 2.41
    -15 + 9 | – 4 | >0 69 | G 0.46 | u 2.08
    -10 + 19 | – 12 | >0 61 | G 0.40 | u 1.87
    -05 + 26 | – 26 | >0 50 | G 0.23 | u 2.73
    +00 + 66 | – 70 | >0 49 | G -0.03 | u 3.14
    BoW > x Mio
    00 + 55 | – 37 | >0 60 | G 0.71 | u 2.99
    05 + 13 | – 8 | >0 62 | G 0.47 | u 1.96
    10 + 6 | – 2 | >0 75 | G 0.91 | u 2.50
    15 + 4 | – 1 | >0 80 | G 0.96 | u 2.84
    20 + 1 | – 1 | >0 50 | G -0.89 | u 3.69
    25 + 1 | – 0 | >0 100 | G 1.72 | u NA
    30 + 1 | – 0 | >0 100 | G 1.72 | u NA

    This backtest looks much more promising:

    The expected average return of a 5 day holding period is 0.09%*5=0.45 (see posting part 1 above).
    Both tested SMAs show consistent underperformance after SoS-days compared to the reference. And both SMAs show consistent outperformance after BoW-days (exception: SMA(5,BoW))>0: G=0.29 < 0.45)

    The sweet spot for this simple backtest seems to be an average over the last 5 days for SoS-days of <=-10 Mio and for BoW-days >=10 Mio (marked with *).

    The last BoW-Signal was on 2011-03-02 and the following trade went as
    2011-03-03 Buy 1430.50
    2011-03-09 Sell 1431.50 | G 0.07
    A mini gain when going long Gold, but under average

    The last SoS-Signals in March were
    2011-03-14 Buy 1424.50 |
    2011-03-18 Sell 1415.50 |G -0.63
    2011-03-23 Buy 1433.00 |
    2011-03-28 Sell 1420.00 |G -0.91
    Two clear gains when going short Gold

    I still would not trade money on this alone, as the statistical significance is still not high enough for my personal requirement. But it really seems to give some indication of further short term performance of gold.

    We might track this going forward as addendum to twiddling our thumbs that the gold bull might resume.

  160. Edwin

    2 days done of metal shakeouts

    let’s the games begin. 🙂

    I see 3 weeks of uptime then I’m collecting half.

    gold volatility is about +-13% so at 1400 range is.
    (1218 – 1400 – 1582)

    silver volatility is about +-26% so at 30 range is
    (22 – 30 – 37)

    proper risk management everyone.

    one of the levels i’m watching is the dollar index — don’t want to see it rise over 76.435

    go gold go!

  161. Clarkatroid

    Ok cards on the table time

    I’m roughly 30% up this year at this juncture, following garys plan nearly word for word ( I’d be a little more up if i would have jumped in 100% when he did)

    But I’m nervous at this point due to the recent price action of overnight falls then daytime fightbacks results in break even/ slightly losing days. I feel like the ” breakout imminent” post isn’t happening . Combine this with more recent less bullish blogging from Gary, and thinking of booking profits for the year

    Im in a dilemma at this point having invested every single cent if my net worth in the analysis of this blog, which is testament in itself to how much i rate gary. Currently I’m 210k in profit for 2011

    If I follow the plan and exit all positions at 1382 gold then I lose virtually all profit, profit from the biggest ” win of my life”

    The alternative is to bank profits now, bask in the glory, take the 210k and twiddle my thumbs

    To be totally honest I don’t know what to do and any advice much appreciated

  162. Richelle

    Looking at the $Silver chart, it seems like the same type of coil played out from the 7th to the 14th followed by a big move down then a rally.

    Maybe we will see a similar set up…

  163. grimweasel

    Silver will rocket tomorrow. The Bull was having a rest. We have a hammer and now an inside bar hammer too. If the high of that IB is taken out then the spring board will be set and up she will go. Only fly in the ointment is stupid NFP this Friday…

  164. jeff

    clark

    maybe you could buy the breakout if you can pull the triger, but you are like me and a little slow to react. or take a chance and sell. if we do get near 1382 , buy back in.
    i was over leveraged and could not take a pullback. i had lots of proffits and bought may call options.
    well the options are in danger now and i may have blown it.. i still have great gains, but i may get lucky and come out ok.. there will be more opportunities.. its your calll best of fortune to you

  165. ALEX

    TRADERLADY

    You were the one from Sarasota? NO WONDER this is easy for you!! I am in Aruba on a balcony, drink in hand-spent the day in the pool and walking the beach, glass bottom boat, etc

    WHAT MARKET?? HAHA

    Anyways, MONEYMAN-thx for the reply. I actually think things look pretty good so far. My SHZ is up on increasing volume…REE,AVL,and MCP look like they’re breaking out with volume A-B-C’s if they break highs of last wk w?vol ( BRIAN, you still got AVL? I bought back into REE)

    I think ,as someone said, “Time will tell”..

    But looks ok so far.

    Will be checking in before mkt opens tomorrow, good night all-

    DG, good conversations on blog today..I gotta re-read HIPTWIST’s analysis when I get a chance!

    When is Garys competition? Thursday?

    BREAK THAT RECORD, GARY, AND SHOW GOLD HOW TO BREAK TO A NEW HIGH!!

    You first, then Gold!

  166. grimweasel

    Interestingly though the silver daily chart is showing ‘Barb-Wire’ – this is a series of 3 or more overlapping Doji candles and if any one has read Al Brooks excellent book (Trading Price Charts Bar by Bar) then you will know he advocated NEVER trading a breakout from Barb Wire until the direction is clear. I’m only looking long but we have had a trendline break on strong momentum with a rally and test into a higher high. This is bearish with candle confirmation but I just wouldn’t short this bull until the USD rallied and silver showed a lower high and 123 setup short on the weekly chart 😉

  167. Edwin

    Clarkatroid,

    if you want to book some profits, just take some or set a stop to give you some piece of mind.

    as the saying goes, nobody went broke collecting a profit.

  168. New York

    clarkatroid,

    I wouldn’t let greed drive your decisions. NOt only risk management but greed management is one of the toughest task for me to overcome.

    If you’ve booked a NICE 210k profit since January I’d say ‘that aint half bad’ and would consider booking some profits.

    BUT it all depends on what you’re goals are. If you’re going for a home run i’d say hand in there but you have to realize the possibility of striking out exists.

    If you’re more of a lead off hitter then maybe chip away with a single or a double here and there – although you’ve already got AT LEAST a tripple, no??

    I’d say take the profit and wait for confirmation. If we dip again you’ll have a buying opportunity, if we go higher and confirm a swing then you’ll feel more confident getting back in… just my 2 cents

  169. Jayhawk

    Weasel-

    That barbed wire thing sounds painful. Also is similar to Gary’s coil pattern–which will give a false break out of the pattern and strongly reverses a few days after the opposite direction. I guess we should all be hoping for a hard break down at this point. Hmmmm…

    Clark-

    How does a gold move down to 1382 wipe out all your profits (35%?) if we got in at 1307?

    I hear ya. Up 50% on AGQ, 53% on AG. Hard not to want to book those profits. 🙂

  170. ...at ease

    So we made it through Monday and Tuesday shuffle days that Gary said we needed to get through. So we shall see tonight or tomorrow where we are headed.

  171. DG

    Hiptwist: great analysis—thanks. I am not a statistics guy, so what is “Mio”? I get the point, though, I think.

    re buying at $1390, I often don’t decide ahead of time whether a trade is short-term or not. As we are probably still in a C-wave I would hope to buy AGQ at 180 or so and hold till 350! If my risk is 10 points and my potential gain is 170 points, I’m always going to be there.

  172. Nike Boy2008

    FWIW…we’ve had 4 straight down days in gold

    we are due for bounce…maybe a dead cat bounce..maybe a lock out day…

    once thing that i’ve learnt from gary and this blog is to sell into strength (especially after 4 straight down days)

  173. Jayhawk

    Not to pile on old Tim Knight. But in retrospect, his post on the precious metals rocket and comment here on Gary’s blog praising him were right at the top at this point. In keeping with the reverse indicator theme, that was the day to sell.

    Tim’s post 3/23

    HUI that day

  174. jeff

    Dg mom got in agq at 175 sigh im not sure what to do with her money.
    the really bad part is dad has put her in this and that trough the years and she has never never made money. this is the first time she is up and excited . im getting so much gratitude. if she stomps out ill just die
    i will not let her lose a dime, but she is so happy to have made some

  175. Gary

    I’m going to post an alternative stop in tonight’s report that will lock in most of our profits.

    That’s the good news.

    The bad news is that if triggered then we will have to chase if gold reverses. And we will miss some of the rally.

  176. Avann

    I’m not sure why some are considering the profit taking as an all or none scenario.
    Clark … you do not have to sell everything … that’s why I think some are so nervous.
    I didn’t like the action so I sold back to core.
    I’m still holding 40% … if that goes to 1382 (or whatever new stop Gary has in store for us) I’m OK with that.
    Just sell enough so you’re happy with the profit and that should keep you from losing any sleep.

  177. DG

    Jeff: No sin in taking a profit. There are lots of reasons to trade. If she has been scarred in the past booking a large profit may be a good thing to do. I myself want to make a pile and am willing to lose most of the profit to do so, but that’s a personal choice. You need to take Gary’s (excellent) info and approach and marry it to your own needs. Just don’t pretend to be doing that intelligently when what you are really doing is just trading emotionally and calling it an “approach.”. There are many right ways to do it and lots of really bad ways as well. Just know which is which.

  178. Poly

    “I’m going to post an alternative stop”

    Every time Mr Savage pleases the masses with an alternate stop, the primary (original) plan prevails 🙂

    This is good news.

  179. DG

    Hiptwist: Then I may be a little confused. Are you saying the sweet spot is a 5-day accumulation of 10 million or more? Do I have this right? Today was +7.7 million. 10 million seems modest. If one fday is $12 million, and the next 4 days don;t show up, it’s still good? Thanks again for doing this legwork. I have wanted to know.

  180. Clarkatroid

    i was a little more aphrehensive and bought in drips and drabs from 1307 from late jan, thats why im only 35% up this year.

    When i say “only” i mean “feck me, grab the hampton, ive got a semi on”

    35% a ludricous amount, especially considering we arent even 6 months into 2011.Its an amount im not used to,who is?

    im used to 4.75% locked into a bank bond for 3 years. So im trying not to be greedy and be realistic

    so gary, a new stop for the more conservative investor would go down a treat sir, although ive mentally drawn a line under 1407 as suggested by some of your bloggers earlier

  181. traderlady

    Alex, Nice to see you on here and glad you are having a relaxing vacation. Perhaps a repeat this summer when in Sarasota for the two of you. We shall all be richer by then. Kerry

    PS Maybe Gary will stop in on the way back from the Matterhorn. lol

  182. Brian

    Poly, You got that right. This is the wear you down and scare you phase we seem to always get. You would have to have pretty good feelings about the US Dollar to bail prematurely, or be over leveraged.

  183. Adam

    If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring. -George Soros

  184. Moneyman

    In a previous post Gary wrote that there is probable with a rebound when we reach the level of the dollar in November 2010..

    Then he changed his mind and thought we would cut through the level like a knife through butter.

    Well we see it now probably, and it is very likely that we will soon return down .. Then I do not know if it fits exactly with Gary’s cycle theory ..

    However, Gary many times before had a plan and when it did not come true many people got nervous.

    However it happened before that there was some bumps along the road..then after a few days we were back on track again.

  185. MLMT

    I have been flat… looking to enter long bus. But this looks bearish. I am hoping we get one last hurrah to 1435+ and on SLV to 37+

    Otherwise I will have to chase this down.

  186. Clarkatroid

    dg “I myself want to make a pile and am willing to lose most of the profit to do so, but that’s a personal choice”

    this is my dilemma. Hang in there and risk losing most my profit versus “winning” a life changing sum of money in a relatively short period(5 years or so)

    i plan to ride this bull for the duration and mimmick the gazzamatrons advice as much as i can stomach it, but….. its really hard to do in real time. really hard.

  187. Gary

    We shouldn’t be getting a wear you out phase at this point.

    There’s no denying gold is not doing what it should be doing. We’ve gone nowhere for the entire month of March.

    That’s not to say we can’t start. But I don’t like losing a whole month when this should be going gangbusters by now.

  188. n1tro

    Clark,

    Why don’t you just book half your profits and put a stop like Gary’s. It’s not every quarter you can say you are up 6 figures?!

  189. Clarkatroid

    i think the “wear out phase” is because my expectations have been too high after a couple of months of fireworks and because ive made soo much money(to me 210k is a heck of a lot) and im nervous about giving it back.

    i made a similar amount of money in 2002 on small cap tech stocks, but was naieve enough to hang in there and lost the lot, all in the space of 3 months, so im a little battle weary

    this is a very steep learning curve and i appreciate the fundamentals are totally different in this situation, but im not sure i can last the distance having had my fingers burnt in the past.

    Its more exciting than when i lost my virginty though i must admit.

  190. Ryan

    I wasn’t fully believing in Gary so I only put in a little about at the IT bottom. I got more confident and starting adding in heavy along the way. Unfortunately that means I’m only about 20% in unrealized profits. Now my question is I know the stop is at 1382 but there really is no way to tell what price silver or the miners will be at? I’m willing to use Gary’s stop but if that means losing 20% I don’t think I’ll be able to do that. Any educated guesses if gold hits 1382 what percentage loss would silver take? BTW Clarktoid I think even if you use Gary’s stop, I don’t think you’d lose 35%.

  191. thedocument

    Gary,

    If gold and silver were moving into a parabolic peak in late April, they most certainly should be going wild right now. Rather than being a negative, however, perhaps, the action simply supports an early summer peak instead.

  192. Moneyman

    But can not the time frame postponed a bit Gary? Why can not gold rise through April and throughout May instead of mars?

    What are the chances that Bernanke raises interest rates? April 4 will be interesting?

  193. TZ(4404)

    I’m still fully leveraged long.

    Like many of you today I’m feeling the flat churn of gold and silver.

    I’m not happy about it, but I can easily write it off to manipulation down/flat for options and contract delivery.

    The peopele short and working to supress metals do NOT want any enthusiasm or upward momo during a delivery rollover. It encourages people to hold longs and take possession.

    What you want instead of dejection, dismissal, second guessing “is the top in?”

    That’s what we got.

    Generally a flat ‘wear out’ period (as gary says) is 3-5 days which is what we have had. Your comments just go to help confirm it as many of you have lightened up, are now worried, etc.

    For my part, I expect the real action to take place in the next 24-36 hours. By that time the direction should be clear.

    Most of my stops are still at ‘japan crash’ lows, but I would also say that ‘they’ tried as hard as they could to push gold and silver down mon/tues. THOSE lows should hold as well although I’m not going to put my stops there.

    I only say it in case someone wants higher stops. The lows on monday.

    So…my thoughts are to just wait a BIT longer and if you are really really antsy, use the lows of monday to lighten up if hit.I’m still fully leveraged long.

    Like many of you today I’m feeling the flat churn of gold and silver.

    I’m not happy about it, but I can easily write it off to manipulation down/flat for options and contract delivery.

    The peopele short and working to supress metals do NOT want any enthusiasm or upward momo during a delivery rollover. It encourages people to hold longs and take possession.

    What you want instead of dejection, dismissal, second guessing “is the top in?”

    That’s what we got.

    Generally a flat ‘wear out’ period (as gary says) is 3-5 days which is what we have had. Your comments just go to help confirm it as many of you have lightened up, are now worried, etc.

    For my part, I expect the real action to take place in the next 24-36 hours. By that time the direction should be clear.

    Most of my stops are still at ‘japan crash’ lows, but I would also say that ‘they’ tried as hard as they could to push gold and silver down mon/tues. THOSE lows should hold as well although I’m not going to put my stops there.

    I only say it in case someone wants higher stops. The lows on monday.

    So…my thoughts are to just wait a BIT longer and if you are really really antsy, use the lows of monday to lighten up if hit.

  194. TZ(4404)

    My other thought is that while it may be that no C wave has ended this way, there is no “rule of the universe” that we have to get a further blowoff.

    I’m perfectly willing to entertain that the rally is over and it’s time to sell. But NOT YET. Let the manipulation games from options and contract delivery pass and lets see how it plays out.

  195. Moneyman

    Doc so you think that the gold rally may start in April instead of March?

    The big question is whether the dollar can continue to rise?

    Gary was hesitant for a rate increase April 7. However, I believe it is possible with an interest rate increase..I think ECB will do it!!

    It would then favor the euro and pushing down the dollar and continue down towards the three year cycle low.

    Sometimes it feels like Gary hang on to certain restricted time frames. I’m not familiar with the cycles so I will not say anything, but why can not the parabolic C-Wave topp come three weeks later then expected?

  196. The Angry Hippie

    Based on what been reading here the blow off peak parabolic orgy has to occur at some point. Right? Do these cycles ever end without the blowoff and head straight to D-wave?

    If by Gary’s count what we have experienced so far is only a whimper and not the true triumphant firework laden climax then I am still expecting it. As TheDoc suggested, maybe just a little later than anticipated.

    Does the blow off possibility expire at some point? Only once the stops are violated?

  197. TZ(4404)

    The fed is trying DARN hard to send signals to the market or talk things down.

    Fed gov last week spoke about exit and tightening.

    Another one over the weekend.

    Another one early this week.

    (All of these had various related news stores too).

    And then today they did the largest reverse repo (withdrawing money) since 2009. It wasn’t an absolutely large number and it was for only 1 day, but it was still another signal.

    They are playing games with the mkt.

    Of course either:
    1) they know they can’t/won’t stop QE and are just trying to sow enough doubt to hit real assets like gold and silver (it’s working)

    or 2) they really are serious and will, at least for a TIME, stop or slow QE for a while and let the system swing the other way. And these signals are legit attempts to start warning people.

    Tough call, but that’s part of what is hitting us.

  198. Gary

    Doc,
    the only problem is that there has never been a C-wave parabolic move in the middle of summer. That would also entail a D-wave in the most bullish fall season.

  199. thedocument

    Moneyman,

    The rally started in January. I just think it may peak in late June rather than late April. That time frame would better fit several cycle counts. However, in order to hone in on an early summer PM peak, we also need to see the dollar’s 3-year cycle low form at that time, and for that to happen, we need the dollar to confirm it has started a new intermediate cycle by holding its weekly swing low this week.

  200. TZ(4404)

    IMO, using mining stocks or indicies to try and read or justify this situation is not legit. In the tail ends of a parabolic rally, the actions is primarily straight metals. And primarily silver.

    Stocks herky jerk up somewhat as well in unison, but not significantly and not enough to use as a measure to say “hui/gdx isn’t breaking out and stocks look weak THEREFORE the gold/silver ralie is OVER”.

    I dont’ agree with that logic at the end of a C wave. Go look at history if you want to argue against.

  201. james r

    The dollar does not seem to having any evidence of a long term trend.

    The candlesticks are all short and today was a doji.

    We “should” be up tomorrow.

  202. thedocument

    Gary,

    Not really. These parabolic runs tend to see a 5-6 week unraveling on the back side. An early summer peak followed by a 5-6 week decline puts the intermediate cycle low in August… just in time for seasonality to kick in.

    If you also consider that all the right-translated gold cycles since the 2008 low have been running in the 25-30 week range rather than the old 18-24 week timing band, the early-summer outlook gains credence. We would see an early summer peak in the 23-25 week area followed by the 5-6 week decline perfectly within the recent tendencies.

  203. TZ(4404)

    St. D,

    >really not even sure why people are bearish all of a sudden

    Because a LOT of us have been in this game a while. We’ve gotten crushed more than once by calmly thinking things were ok while little alarm bells were going off one by one.

    Right now a few of us are getting little alarm bells.

    No momo as expected. Swing lows and highs at the wrong time. Fed starting to talk and actually do things. All the newbies on the board buying calls earlier in the week. Etc. Etc.

    We aren’t bearish, but we want to stay frosty.

  204. Gary

    Doc,
    If a new intermediate dollar cycle runs a normal 20 weeks it won’t bottom till mid August. That would put the up leg in gold at 28 weeks. add 6 weeks for the D-wave and you have a 34 week cycle. Quite far outside gold’s normal timing band which has been 25 weeks.

    I keep coming back to the November year cycle low in the dollar the last couple of years and I’m trying to see how we could stretch the dollar cycle out to there. I guess it’s possible gold could consolidate through the summer again.

  205. TZ(4404)

    Like I said earlier, I think the direction and everybody’s questions will be answered in 24-36 hours.

    The timing simply feels right and the ‘wear out’ phase I think ran its course.

  206. Gallo

    Gary or Doc,

    Why not a grind higher through early summer followed by a correction and then a huge move in late summer early fall for the rest of the year? I remember Gary making a comment in the last post that a summer rally as we had this past summer is rare if not unheard of. Yet it happened. These things are not always carved in stone. Haven’t you said don’t extropolate the future by using the past?:) Why wouldn’t that thinking not apply as to how this C wave will ultimately unfold? Cycles are more of an art than it is a science I’m sure. The fact that Gary and Doc (both of whom use cycles) have come up with different scenarios as to how this leg of C wave should unfold is proof of that.

  207. St. Deluise

    fair enough!

    another thing going for the “endless consolidation” angle is that a lot of people might just sit on their hands until a better picture of the QE situation materializes, which might take a while unless the market forces their hand.

  208. ...at ease

    I’m with you TZ, let’s get through the games this week. We were expecting dollar drop on or after April 1 – 7, then May. Neither is here yet.

  209. TZ(4404)

    PS: none of my posts were to or about gary/doc who are carrying on their own discussion above.

    I was just posting a few of my thoughts in multiple posts and they got interleaved and made them look like I was in the discussion.

    Ignore that.

  210. thedocument

    Gary,

    True, but the dollar cycle doesn’t have to stretch to 20 weeks. The timing band is actually 15-22 weeks, so at the front end of that range, we get an early summer low (early July, actually). And if it runs short as it did in November, we get late June. Lots of possibilities. We’d have to watch sentiment at the time to confirm, but the scenario is worth keeping in mind.

  211. jeff

    o the drama

    bulls are tuff

    i think it would be easier to get a pickup full of coke, about 2 tones, uncovered, driving from mexico to newyork about 110mph. with “i hate pigs” painted on the side of the truck.
    o and blowing the horn the entire time

  212. TZ(4404)

    GARY,

    I didn’t read the nightly report before my comments above.

    I won’t say which comments I’m talking about for the sake of subscribers, but I just wanted you to know.

    Good traders think alike?

  213. Haggerty

    I’m hoping the reason that we haven’t done much in a month is because the move out of this range of consolidation will be a huge move to the upside.

  214. Avann

    Gary, assuming the new plan comes into play … why wait for a new all time high to reenter and not just a weekly swing low?

  215. Avann

    I don’t think it is … it’s just very tight sideways consolidation … very much like silver has be in for the last 5 days.

  216. ddn3f

    Avann,

    Thanks. I could have sworn I saw it defined before in the terminology document. Maybe it was on the old site.

  217. TheBookGuy

    Anyone know how to make a conditional order in IB? I don’t seem to be able to find it and being that I’m in Afghanistan with terrible internet does not help me search. I have to say I don’t like the format of IB much.

    I took my profits today and am just going to sit back and see how this thing unfolds. I’ll buy back in at $1450 if it moves up again. I was going to do so at $1449, but I’ll go with Gary’s advice.

  218. jabalong

    Just read the latest premium update with the alternate plan and have a couple of questions.

    When we’re talking about taking profits on all precious metals, does that include our core positions? If not, what percentage are we recommending as a core?

    My second question is about using gold as our benchmark here. We’ve got a situation where gold has been weak, while silver has continued to show strength. And we’ve got Gary’s entire model portfolio in silver.

    So why not focus on silver in terms of plans and stop losses? I’m thinking maybe it’s because silver is often more volatile. But then gold can easily move $10-15 in a day, so I wonder about moving an alternate stop up to within $8 of where we are as I write this, while silver is still looking good.

    I don’t have a crystal ball and not sure which plan is better, but just wondering why we wouldn’t focus on silver for our exit plan since that’s where the strength still is and where we are invested.

  219. pimaCanyon

    Great report this evening, Gary!

    Question: You mentioned a condition where you would close positions. Should that occur, will you go back to core, or will you sell everything?

  220. Gary

    I will sell everything.

    We are getting very late in this C-wave and I’m not going to take a chance of getting caught in a D-wave just in case the dollar did put in a mild 3 year cycle low and gold doesn’t do the normal parabolic final rally.

  221. Poly

    The alt plan is a good one, I agree a breakdown below the trendline at this point is not good action.

    I’ve maintained also that the next 2 -3 days are the “money days”

  222. Hot Rod

    Just an interesting tidbit (fun fact) from some TA tonight.

    Gold has declined 4 days in a row. Over the past 1 year timeframe, this recent decline of only $20 ($1438 to $1418) is the smallest 4 day drop by far….

  223. Gary

    Four down days in a row is actually a 4 day corollary possible trend change signal.

    Generally speaking one rarely sees four down days in a row in an uptrending market.

  224. jeff

    gary

    i pulled the wife out of the market ( her 401) what should i tell her do ? stay out, or get back in for a while… any thoughts

  225. jabalong

    Gary, if we’re starting to consider that gold may not do its normal parabolic final rally for this C-wave, what are your thoughts on potential downside targets for the D-wave in such a circumstance.

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think we were looking for a big rise over the next month or two, then falling back to retest current levels in the D-wave.

    But say if we were to top out soon with $1,440s being the peak for this C-wave, what would the implications of that be for a potential downside target for the D-wave?

    This may very well be premature, but since we’re talking about maybe exiting our positions sooner than we’d hoped, would be nice to have some idea of potential downside in this revised scenario (ie, no parabolic final rise), particularly for those of us inclined to keep core positions in PMs.

  226. Hot Rod

    Another fun fact from TA.

    The last 5 times over the past 3 years in gold that the Ichimoku cloud turned from red to green, gold followed with an increase.

    Right now, gold is in the red and it turns to green on March 30th….

  227. Nike Boy2008

    thanks for the great report Gary..

    tomorrow should be interesting…gold already headed down – @ 1415 now..

    i’m more than happy to lock in profits

  228. Sandy101

    Gary said

    “There’s no denying gold is not doing what it should be doing. We’ve gone nowhere for the entire month of March.

    That’s not to say we can’t start. But I don’t like losing a whole month when this should be going gangbusters by now.”

    Gary: Could this mean that we replicate last year’s acton which was up in Feb, grind in March, up in April May June and take off after August IT low.

  229. Gary

    Any D-wave from this point would be unlike any other D-wave because it wouldn’t really be a severe regression to the mean event.

    I suspect it would unfold as an infuriating grind lower for 2-4 months with many violent counter trend rallies.

    Best guess would be maybe slightly below the last intermediate bottom of $1307.

  230. TZ(4404)

    In light of recent comments something funny maybe happening that I suspected would: so many people aer now reading/following cycles and the ABCD pattern that they may now cease to work this time around.

    I’ve seen the pattern before over the years as I’ve run across different techniques and approaches. After something gets widespread enough it will often skip a beat just long enough to hurt the extra-large group of people now following it.

    Then they get dejected, go away, and the pattern can regain some of its use again.

    I was in metals for almost a decade and only came across and started to believe in cycles recently. Now almost everybody I know is reading/doing the same.

    So I wont find it hard to believe that it might not work this time.
    (But I’m still long and evaluating what I will do in the next day or so based on various scenarios.)

    It’s just an interesting observation.

  231. Gary

    No I would not buy at $1382 because the daily cycle should not even be close to that level at this point.

    If gold even gets close to $1382 with 10 or more days left in the daily cycle then the odds are high it will trade through that level.

    Gold should be rocketing higher by now now testing the prior cycle low.

    There’s really no way to sugar coat it.

    If something doesn’t do what I think it should, almost invariably it was me that was wrong and not the market. I always end up better off if I don’t argue and just change my mind.

  232. jeff

    tz
    instead of getting new subs for gary, lets keep it a secreat and double our fee. that might be a bigger bargain. ok no mor subs
    new guys get to stay my hand is up. pluse i have 3 subscriptions

  233. jabalong

    An infuriating grind lower over many months, we’ve certainly had a few of those over the years with gold. Thanks Gary, just wanted to get a ballpark idea at the moment.

  234. David

    Keep in mind that this is exactly the scenario Doc was calling for.

    Stock market to new highs, and a more prolonged journey to a C-wave top in June-ish.

    It appears Gary may be buying someone a burrito.

  235. Hot Rod

    Gary,

    This is one of your biggest assets and added value.

    #1 – every day for you is another data point and you re-evaluate
    #2 – your #1 goal is to make money no matter what
    #3 – you have no issue with changing direction if necessary or admitting mistake

    I still think it is worth the risk to keep the “hard” stops at 1380. But, I agree that gold at 1310 and even at 1300 are key levels to watch.

  236. jeff

    gary

    ok that makes it clear. wow what a revelation. that would be why some support areas should have been a sure thing didnt even phase the market. for instance the dollar sliceing through its lows recently

  237. TZ(4404)

    Remember, a market is EXCELLENT at making people THINK (or afraid) that it is about to do something, cause them to REACT as though it actually did, but then never follow through and go the other way.

    Right now gold and silver are putting serious concern into everybody I’m reading, but they have not actually dropped below ANY support levels yet.

    None.

    But some are already selling and others are making plans to bail.
    (It’s never bad to plan, mind you.)

    Just remember there is a HUGE difference between ACTUALLY going lower and breaking things and making us THINK it is going lower.

    Don’t act so much on the APPEARANCE of what it might do. Make it SHOW you.

  238. jeff

    gary

    i pulled the wife out of the market ( her 401) what should i tell her do ? stay out, or get back in for a while… any thoughts

  239. Francisco

    Gary,
    In your new plan, you talked about reentering silver above a certain price after the reversal from the coil breakdown. Are you suggesting that we reenter silver at this price EVEN IF gold still has not rallied back to higher highs? In other words, are the two mutually exclusive or do we need both conditions to be met to reinitiate a silver position?

  240. MyPreciousGoldSIlver

    Hi everyone,

    first time poster, even though I’ve subscribed with Gary for a long time

    Everyone I know is buying gold and silver now. I’ve never seen so many people ask me about gold ever. The news, cnbc, cnn – all they talk about is gold and silver and about how the USD is doomed

    Gary’s secret is not a secret anymore…everyone is expecting the USD to plunge in April

    This was further enforced when I saw the number of new posters for the last entire month.

    Sentiment is definitely very very bullish.

    I was expecting that MMs will definitely change the course of the C-wave or do something to subside sentiment

    Looks like that will happen now.

    Good luck to everyone. Stay safe and hope you all spend a lot of time with your loved ones

  241. catbird

    TZ,

    Point taken, but remember a lot of people have a big position in AGQ. Apparently many even own a lot of options.

    If these people people wait for gold to print $1382 before they deem it to have “SHOWN” them what it wants to do, they will have given back most (and for some latecomers, all) of their gains.

    One thing we can all agree on: we are still waiting on the manic, blow-off top that imbues everyone with euphoria. If we get stopped out and then gold promptly reverses and races to $1450, so what? We climb back on and make a bundle more en route to the C wave top.

    I’d rather miss the profits in the 1410-1450 zone than ride my AGQ all the way back to $1382 before selling.

  242. TZ(4404)

    >Everyone I know is buying gold and silver now. I’ve never seen so many people ask me about gold ever.

    I’ve gotta say I disagree.

    There are quite a number of people who know I trade the metals and who know the ‘pitch’ as to why they should buy.

    None of them yet have perked back up and talked to me recently. Usually near a peak I get some calls or emails or comments over lunch.

    Nothing yet.

    Others here on the board can give their opinions if they want as to what they’ve seen. For me the marginal buyers aren’t biting yet.

  243. TZ(4404)

    CATBIRD,

    My comment on the market was more philosophical than not, but I wasn’t suggesting the “show me” point is 1380 or anything that gives a huge loss.

    That point can (and probably should) be the point that gary discussed in his newsletter.

    I was just pointing out that, so far, we haven’t broken ANY downside levels AT ALL.

    So it is interesting that the metals have generated the angst that they have.

  244. DG

    I agree with TZ. I have a lot of friends who do not invest or trade. At the stock market top I was getting questions about stocks. At the oil top I was getting comments and questions about oil. I have heard nothing about gold yet. Plus sentimentrader shows public sentiment on gold at dead neutral, and the Rydex switch fund guys have average exposure, not a large exposure as they normally would at a top. Doesn’t mean we can’t go down, but it’s the damnedest top I’ve ever seen.

  245. David

    Precious,

    I definitely haven’t had that experience. I ran into some dedicated gold/silver traders around the Japanese earthquake and they wanted nothing to do with PMs.

    I don’t think the fate of gold/silver lies in the hands of Joe six-pack anyway. It hinges on the dollar and on hot-money hedge funds.

    We are definitely on the knife edge though.

  246. Avann

    I have a few friends who are asking … perhaps it’s because I see them regularly. But up until now it was just curiosity… this week they were seriously considering buying … I told them them to hold off for awhile.

  247. Razvan

    TZ
    people are not complaining about how much value the metals lost. People are not happy because the metal are not behaving the way they are supposed to be behaving in a blow off top.

  248. james r

    Precious,

    As for bullish sentiment, I am the only one in my IT group that is invested in metals, everyone else is in the general market.

    As for the metals to turn up the dollar needs to drop NOW!

    People need a reason to buy. Just buying for the sake of buying is not enough.

    James

    James

  249. Hot Rod

    Earlier there was discussion about conflicting chart signals. Well here’s another one.

    I have seen in my short experience that “positive and negative divergence on the RSI” can be telling for seeing when rallies run out of steam and when breakdowns weaken.

    On the 3 year gold chart…

    We have positive divergence on the RSI with 2 data points from Aug 2010 and then Feb 2011. RSI has made a lower dip but price made a higher dip.

    At the same time, we have negative divergence on the RSI with 2 data points from Oct 2010 and Mar 2011. RSI made a lower peak but price made a higher peak.

    I have to wholeheartedly agree with TZ that the next 1-2 days or the rest of the week (3 days) is damn critical.

  250. 86d4life

    Not to make the waters any more murky, but I `m reminded of Steve Buscemi in `Armegedon` when he said `It`s time to embrace the horror`. Maybe a little over dramtic, but I think it makes a good point. Things are really getting wild.

    TZ; Garys system seemed to be working well up until just recently. Do you think it`s possible that the market could be influenced in seemingly that short a time?

  251. Gary

    I can assure you that the amount of people reading the SMT is inconsequential compared to the rest of the market.

  252. Rosabarba

    I wonder if enough consideration is being given to what could be a paradigm shift in the aftermath of the disasters in Japan, and how the current murkiness in those technicals we watch have been affected by it. We are close to having a confirmed and possibly major blowoff top in the yen, which is about 1/7 of the dollar index. The action in the PMs of late might be a bit of muscle memory in response to apparent dollar strength that is actually yen weakness.

    Nothing much to do but watch for now, as far as I can tell, but perhaps the current ambiguity is just a bit of black swan that hasn’t been digested yet.

    Just a thought, anyway. Sorry if somebody floated the notion already and I missed it.

  253. TZ(4404)

    I’ll wrap the night by saying, for what it is worth, I think the uncertain feeling is a fakeout and we resume screaming up higher tomorrow.

  254. TZ(4404)

    Please nobody bet on that. I’m just as quick to change my mind and run when I think my position is bad as gary or dg.

    I’m just throwing out my 2 cents.

  255. Brian

    If you want sentiment just read this blog. Most people on here (except for about 10 long timers) are like cats crapping razor blades. I have to stick with my earlier comment that aligns with TZ. Everybody wanted a rocket and now there is a little twist. The thing I know for sure, every time I sold in a situation like this, I ended up regretting it. Maybe this time is different, but I hate that phrase too.

  256. DG

    Trading/investing is probabilities. Things don’t always work. If someone offers to pay you $100 whenever you flip a set of five coins that don’t land all heads, you should take that bet but of course can still lose. If you take it and lose you weren’t “wrong.” If you took the others side of that bet and won you were nonetheless wrong to take it. It’s all about playing the odds. A system didn’t fail to work because the universe flipped five heads against it. How to evaluate whether a system has stopped working is not easy, but is the question. I agree with gary that given Central Bank purchases and sales, China, India, etc. SMT is irrelevant. Maybe someday—after they name a coin The Savage—but nowhere near yet. Even the hedgies might possibly move gold for a day, but they can’t abort a cycle.

  257. ...at ease

    Just to keep some humor here, I can say without a doubt the gold/silver will be shooting higher as of March 31st or April 1st, because, that will be the first available day I have mucho funds from the mutual fund available to buy more. That has been the trend everytime I want to get into some more. So… let’s see what the rest of the week brings us and be ready.

  258. Brian

    DG, You may be wrong here, because somebody clearly aborted the USD daily cycle. In 2008ish SB aborted a 4 year stock cycle. It does happen and Gary had documented it.

  259. DG

    Brian: Yes the Fed certainly does affect things. I meant a popular technician or approach will never override the gold market’s natural movements. The Fed can, but not Gary (yet?) or cycle theory.

  260. Brian

    DG: As TZ mentioned earlier, sometimes when a certain approach to the market gets too popular, market players look to abort it and profit. Think about Peter Brimelow hijacking Gary’s work. That is huge exposure. Suddenly traders are reading this work and looking for an edge. Yes cycles are human nature, but they can be temporarily aborted by many things. This week in particular is just a futures rollover and opex, so I haven’t weighted it heavily yet. Just thinking out loud with the fingers here.

  261. Gary

    Even in a down trend one would expect an up day after four down days in a row. I wouldn’t load up on leverage just because gold has an up day.

  262. Jayhawk

    Yes, Rosa. Japan knocked everything off there and the metals options exp followed up that so things are really screwed up right now. I’m impressed that silver is still right around 37 in light of all that.

  263. Gary

    If gold & miners get back in gear then I would take a move higher by silver seriously and not really expect the coil pattern to play out.

  264. fat boy

    Lots of fun and games today and loved catching up..
    Brian and not everyone is passing razors even beyond the ‘big 10’
    I agree with Gary our blog is not a litmus test indicator of the average Joe and I guess the question is Gary are you going to post the new stops on trade triggers? Or just leave it as an alt strategy?
    Tz poly it certainly feels like next 48 hrs may swing the masses, I’m hearing you
    Lol for tomorrow all…..

  265. Steven

    Gary,

    If the C wave is not going to go according to earlier plans then do you think we may have already topped out on silver and gold?

  266. Greenspansconscience

    Next couple of days are going to be huge.

    We have a triangle consolidation in gold that, at least for now, looks like a thing of beauty.

    We’ve had 4 red days in a row on gold, with medium to small candles. It looks like a bull flag to me.

    Gold’s RSI is dead neutral. MACD is also flat and ready to make a move. Stochastics are neutral.

    Sentiment is skittish at best.

    I would say we are ready to break higher.

  267. ...at ease

    San Diego Jack,
    First you need a google email account set up. Then below this comment box is a box to check that follow up comments will follow you. They will come in on gmail email account. You can also set up on twitter that there is a new post, following garysavage1 to follow for tweets on new posts to your sms on cell phone.

  268. ...at ease

    San Diego jack, once you set up your gmail. You will need to send a comment and check the box below that you want to follow comments, (I think where a lot of Tests come in). That should do it for you.

  269. Adam

    Let’s keep in mind that on March 18th, the Euro ($XEU), gapped higher. Since then, it’s formed a text book flag pattern to fill the gap and ended the day with a morning star pattern. It’s not surprising that the dollar index isn’t crashing lower given that scenario. Plus, with the new QE going on in Japan it’s amazing the $USD index hasn’t shot higher. Note that the dollar is *NOT* holding up against the commodity currencies (Aussie Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Brazilian Real). Because of this, there’s also been strength in emerging markets which is probably part of the reason why stocks are moving higher in general right now – using the EEM as a bullish tell. I’m not understanding the panic on the site right now.

  270. Jayhawk

    at ease–

    Listen to some of Willie’s older interviews as well. The guy is a hoot.

    I’d love to see a chart of that Cloud thing for the poster who mentioned it earlier.

  271. Moneyman

    Adam

    Yes it has been a little panic on the blog. Or rather, a fear that everything is over before the battle started properly.

    What do you think of the dollar movement? Will gold and the dollar rise together, or will the dollar fall back anytime soon?

    I believe in a falling dollar in the near future and that the euro regains strength.

  272. hiptwist

    DG, my statement Signal, when the average total volume of the last 5 or 10 days is > or < as BoW/SoS meant:

    The average has to be >10 Mio for BoW. And I used a 5d average. So in other words the sum of the absolute BoW/SoS values over the last 5 days has to be 10Mio*5d=50 Mio

    The final numbers for 2011-03-29 are BoW=7.69=128.82-121.12 (less then the 10 Mio you saw). So there is no signal yet. Still >42Mio missing, which when added in the next 4 days would trigger a buy.

    For fun, I’ll try to follow the numbers and post here if a buy or sell is signaled.

  273. San Diego Jack

    At Ease…

    I have gmail, and tweaked the settings in the Dashboard, and will see if I get notified.

    Didn’t do the follow-up, as I could never keep up 1150 comments chasing me. Seems Gary is wildly popular…

    Thanks for the help.

  274. San Diego Jack

    At Ease,

    Not getting anything. Nothing to gmail or Dashboard.

    Will try again tomorrow, calling it a night. Thanks again, and hope to wake to higher PM’s…

  275. ...at ease

    San Diego Jack
    You have to send a comment in this comment box (it will say San Diego Jack (google account) signed out if you are on.
    Then check the box below for follow up comments to follow your comment sent.

  276. fubsy_cooter

    As always, I appreciate Gary’s willingness to let the market speak to him and not get locked into a point of view.

    The recent action has been confusing at best. On the positive side, I see a Gold Bull that is making even the stoutest supporters nervous. This could just be the bull shaking off as many riders as possible before launching into a great run higher.
    Also, we have been consolidating pretty significant gains above
    1400. Form this level and sentiment, a breakout would likely be powerful.

    With that said, I like Gary’s plan. Locking in profits on unexpected weakness is frugal, and is the luxury many of us have by having had the balls to buy when prices were in decline.

    When the risk of taking that safety net is the possibility of losing 3-4% on a rally versus the possibility of sitting out a drawn out correction, that seems to be a reasonable move.

    Just felt like throwing in my two cents.

    F

  277. Strellsy

    It’s interesting to see how the fear of losing profit affects people. There is a lot of research into the traders mindset and how people would rather lock in a small profit, than take the risk of making a large profit.

    Gary – one of the things I like so much about your work is the constant emphasis on old turkey and how the bull will do everything it can to throw you off.

    Is there a danger that the blog panic is getting to you a little?

    We can’t lose money with the current stop @ 1382, but we seem to be micro managing our position even further with the new plan. Which for me seems out of kilter with our long-term strategy.

  278. Gary

    Strellsy,
    The risk is that gold may be entering a D-wave.

    The simple fact is that it isn’t doing what it should be doing. We should not have lost a whole month. Gold should be rocketing higher at this point not putting in 4 down days in a row.

    There is such a thing as having blinders on. One can Old Turkey themselves right into a D-wave if they aren’t careful.

    I absolutely will not do that. To do so would mean dead money for probably two years.

    Gold is at a point where it needs to get moving. If it does then great we are positioned and ready to go. If it doesn’t then I’m going to move to the sidelines and wait till it does or stay on the sidelines till I think the A-wave has begun.

  279. Bruce

    Gary –

    Regarding the silver coil: if silver breaks up, what are the odds that that could be a fake move, only to be reversed lower, after it sucks in break out players?, or am I overthinking, being contrarian to the contrarian, if you knows[sic} what I mean?

  280. PressurePointAdmin

    without beating on the “seasonal door” (remember the model is not a standard model) what we are seeing here is supportive of teh model and the lows coming into late april/early may, For now i sit on the sidelines. Barclays (BCS) very much still on the buying watch list.

  281. 86d4life

    Just taking a stab here; Rallys don`t end in a consolidatioin and that`s what the GLD chart looks like to me. Please, comments from the board.

    Tz smacked it hard.silver smokin` this mornin`.

  282. Haggerty

    Good Morning
    Looks like silver is up 50 cents from yesterday. Could it be that Silver will lead Gold. I really hope so. Going to Follow my April Contracts with trailing stops hopefully get a nice jump in price today.

  283. traderlady

    Jimmy Rogers today:
    “I actually bought some silver [XAG= 37.46 0.39 (+1.05%) ] and gold [XAU= 1419.16 3.21 (+0.23%) ] last week, not a lot but some,” he said.

    “Paper money is being debased all over the world… the world’s got a lot more inflation, a lot more currency debasement, don’t sell your silver,” Rogers added.

  284. Gary

    We need to see gold follow silver otherwise silver would be in jeopardy of the coil pattern playing out and an initial move higher would be a fakeout.

    Gold needs to better $1448 and turn this into a right translated daily cycle. It would help if the miners would breakout too.

  285. Gary

    Instead of trying to guess I’m just going to follow the plan. If gold closes below $1410 I’m on the sidelines. If it can make a new high and if the miners can join the party then by all means press on the gas hard.

  286. Gary

    Yes it has to close below that level. An intraday move below that would be meaningless as buying pressure could come in again and send it back up which is exactly what we have been seeing lately.

  287. Shalom Bernanke

    I’ll follow Gary’s plan, except that I’ll only exit half my positions and hold the rest. I can weather a large drawdown on partial positions and hate the thought of sitting in fiat paper, even if it’s getting more valuable vs. other confetti.

    One day many PM bulls will miss a spike higher by trying to avoid a pullback, so I have to keep some as long as the secular bull is intact. That said, Gary has traded this well and put us in a position of strength, so I intend to follow him with a partial exit (if we close below $1410). The rest has a stop so far below current prices I seriously doubt it gets hit.

    Let’s see what happens. 🙂

  288. Shalom Bernanke

    As far as buying back in (after a stop out) over $1450, I’ll leave that trade for others. I won’t be buying a breakout this late in a C-wave.

    One more reason I will keep some even if we close below $1410.

  289. New York

    Gary,

    If silver breaks up and gold doesn’t follow (fails to make a new high above 1448) we must assume the move up in silver is a fakeout out of the coil, correct?

    If that happens wouldn’t one want to sell into that strength? Or we should sit tight and wait for confirmation?

  290. Frank

    A SMT subscriber that’s new to this message board. Just can’t sleep as the future of the C-wave is coming down to the wire.

    Looks like the bull is doing the sky shoot thing but besting 1448 seems to be a tall order …

  291. Mission

    What’s the formula for determining GLD’s level when gold spot is at such and such price? Or, another way of asking this question, what will GLD be if gold hits 1410? Thanks.

  292. Clarkatroid

    Gary the plan sounds terrific. As does today’s action so far .

    Others have said this but your ability to flipit positions at the drop of a hat gives this subscriber a lot of confidence

  293. Poly

    We’re on day 11, we don’t need all time high’s immediately!

    First step is ‘the now”(adding some more would be great) and not giving back any of the gains, that will reveal this cycles character. Half a cycle remaining, plenty of damage can be done in half a cycle.

  294. funmike

    Has anyone ever done any studies to determine what drives these cycles? It seems to me that there must be a originating force and in that case some potential disrupting forces that cause the cycles to move or not move with some kind of regularity. For example, the direction of the dollar is in the hands of congress right now. In most years the budget bill would have been done by now. This could be our variable. Meaningful cuts could shore up the dollar. Keep on spending and the C wave is still on. Just a thought.

  295. Otis

    Gary and others. Regarding daily closes below any significant level. One thing that confuses me is since gold trades 24 hrs and various markets open and close at different times, what makes one daily close (NY) any more significant than another markets daily close? My observation is that when the gold bull is running, a big part of the moves seems to happen after hours. Just look at the GLD or SLV charts when they run they tend to be full of gap ups. (and we’ve debated many times on this board whether gaps truly exist in PMs).

  296. funmike

    If I think that congress is reigning in spending then I will have more confidence in the economy at least until the reality of the huge debt sinks in.

  297. pimaCanyon

    For those wondering about the price of gold compared to GLD, there are a couple of ways to do this. One is: Just look at their prices in real time and calculate the percentage difference.

    A better way is to look at the chart of gold and see what Gary is referring to when he suggests selling on a close below a certain price. See WHY he is saying that. Look at the price bars that have their LOW of the day at that price. Then look at the GLD chart, look at those same price bars and see what the lows were on those same days. That’s what you would be looking for, a close in GLD below that level.

  298. pimaCanyon

    Correction: Look at prices in real time, multiple GLD by 10 and the calculate the percentage difference between that price and the price of gold.

  299. n1tro

    Now is the time for people who came late to the party to get out if they want. Silver and gold has a nice spike up. I don’t want to hear anymore crying in the coming days please. 🙂

  300. Otis

    Pima’s suggestions on GLD price calculations are the way to go. Just keep in mind when looking at GLD vs gold, that gold may create a low that is lower than the intraday/after-hours price action on GLD. So to be absolutely safe in your GLD level make sure the time of day corresponds to the time of day on gold (ie use intraday chart and make sure your gold price isn’t 2 am when GLD isn’t trading)

  301. Poly

    (For the SLV $40 lottery folk’s only)

    Sold to close remaining 150 calls @ $0.21.
    Even with a potential big run in the wings here, just don’t see the math to get these calls green, let alone a big payout.

  302. Otis

    Duuuude,

    Many members have not been able to set conditional stops with their brokerages based on spot gold prices. Are you able to set a conditional order based on GC or spot gold with your account and trigger a trade for AGQ? If you are able to please let us know as I’m sure there are a number of members who would like to follow suit. Thanks.

  303. TommyD

    Gary,
    Should I look at the close of gold from the NY Nymex at 1:30??? or should I view everything when the general market closes at 4:00?

  304. ...at ease

    You can set a trigger for your other metals/miners using GLD as the trigger price/
    Your other symbols are set for sell at market price when
    GLD <= set price.

  305. Bob loves Hawaii

    If I have not heard of Gary, and someone asked me about the silver chart, I’d say a chart pattern that has price sitting above the last major high, consolidating for four days, and then breaks higher seems pretty bullish to me vs the anxiety I see on the posts recently.

    I think that we can agree that the FED fears a falling dollar now (high oil and food) but are really powerless to stop it unless they stop buying Treasuries (which they can not), have spent the last four days using TOMO gimmicks and jawboning to keep the dollar stable.

    This will fail and I am more optimistic on metal prices continuing it’s run higher.

  306. DG

    Minors doing very well today. GDX is up about 3 times what GLD is. Hopefully this is foretelling what is to come…

  307. Romeo Bravo

    Poly, smart move. I sold some SLV $ 42 calls against the $ 40 so I’m going to let those run a bit. I have other deeper in the money SLV as well. Big part of the option game is knowing when you have a low probability trade (like the $ 40 this close to expiration) and get out for break even or a small loss rather than a total loss.

  308. DG

    Gary: By the way, interestingly, OIH showed up on my short screen yesterday, so I switched when I covered XLE. Right industry yesterday; wrong ETF. I’m back to even after the XLE loss so you are off the hook—I know you’ve been sweating about this 😉

  309. Poly

    Of course there really should be nothing to fear or stress about, these emotions only leading to over-trading, at the wrong times.

    There are only scenario’s to play out (which is what a lot of this discussion is about) and sitting in between. As long as we are aware and prepared for each scenario and trade accordingly, over time we should come out profiting handsomely.

  310. Nike Boy2008

    talking about the move in silver – fake or not:

    gold has been dropping since market open…it just can’t seem to keep its gains

    hopefully it reverses, and we close over 1430

  311. DG

    Well said, Poly. I think what you said is also at the heart of proper position sizing. If you are stressing your positions are too large. If you sweat no matter what size you do, you shouldn’t be trading.

  312. Poly

    You’re right Romeo, live to fight another day with these 🙂

    Being lottery plays, you’re playing for a killing (due to low probability), not a last day scramble to cross the strike price line.

  313. EricH

    Gary,
    You mentioned the coil in silver and the initial move is usually the fake one. Do you see a problem with today’s move in silver if that’s the case? Maybe time to lock in profits?

  314. Gary

    Eric,
    I would only play the coil in silver on a downside break and recovery.

    As long as gold and miners are rising then I would ignore an upside break on the coil and just continue to follow one of the two plans.

  315. T

    I know there was a site move happening, but is it still down? I can’t get to the premium web site. There is no DNS entry for it, and I’ve tried multiple independent DNS servers.

    DNS server handling your query: localhost
    DNS server’s address: 127.0.0.1#53

    ** server can’t find smartmoneytrackerpremium.com: SERVFAIL

  316. Ohio Rob

    Gary, you are not allowed to show emotion. It freaks the rest of us out. I am considering your frowny face as bullish as I have read you always get out early. Although, this is one f’d up parabola.

  317. pimaCanyon

    So far, the uptrending TL off the 3/15 low on the hourly chart on gold futures has held. The low a few minutes ago tagged that TL and bounced up.

    Wild market, to say the least.

  318. whitebear

    Either, this is uncharacteristic price action for a continuation higher or they really want to buck long riders off…

    60min, /SI still looks healthy.

  319. PST

    Gary,
    I know that you think that gold can rally without additional dollar weakness, but it just seems like the price movements this morning are the exact inverse of the dxy movements. At what point do you think this inverse relationship will decouple?

  320. TommyD

    GLD has a gap that has not been filled at 137.09 from 3/17

    I personally believe and I practice safe sex but this is unconformable.

    I will wait for the close at 4:00 then evaluate my options.

  321. DG

    It really feels—emotionally—like they are going to break down here. I have seen very often that when I allow myself to feel my feelings (rather than segregating them so I can trade properly) they tell me what the masses are feeling. This is a good sign for us. I don’t know what the PM’s are going to do, but if I were emotionally confident they were going to rally I bet anything they’d break. My pit-of-the-stomach feeling is a good sign.

  322. Beanie

    Don’t sweat it homies, silver headed to $50 this year.

    What’s interesting is how much higher can it go when Dow is on its way to 36,000.

  323. TommyD

    DG,
    I agree. Everyone should stay away from Mexican food for the next few days.

    By the way, I ordered your book. Looking forward to reading it…

  324. pimaCanyon

    Gary,

    Another poster asked the question:

    What time will you use to determine the close?

    1:30 when the futures pit closes, or
    4:00 when stock market closes or
    5:15 when the “day” officially ends on the futures (market closes for 45 min, then re-opens at 6pm with tomorrow’s date)

  325. PST

    Jonas,
    I’m not running correlations or anything but am just eyeballing the charts. Everytime the dxy moves up, it appears that gold/silver moves down. I think this is pretty consistent with the last 5 days too. Gold and silvers momentum stopped as soon as we saw the dollar start to rally.

    Can you give me a better idea why you don’t think that this is the case.

  326. pimaCanyon

    Hey Beanie,

    You will be glad to know that Neely is forecasting DOW 100,000, so your 36,000 is way too low.

    Oh, but there’s one little detail: The move to 100,000 will begin sometime after 2020, maybe will not start until 2030. Meanwhile, it’s a bear market in stocks with a trading range between spx 666 and spx 1600. Next significant move will likely be down. Enjoy!

  327. Jonas Haraldson

    These drops usually have at least two down segments with some minor reverse squiggles in between. Based on that I would guess we’ll bottom out on 36.8 for silver and then slowly head back up again.

    I wish I knew what’s actually going on with the position limit process at the CFTC. Predictably, all the banks came in with multi-page treatises on why position limits are bad. And now the scheduled CFTC meeting today has been canceled. I’d so like to be a fly on the wall.

  328. DG

    Yay! Beanie is back! He was hiding while Japan cratered the markets. If we drop he’ll go away again. Of course his SMH “this is the best sector” call still looks a little sick and while he has made nothing in ten years (SPX unchanged) and we are up a ton, it’s selectively pointing out the few things that have worked for him that counts! Oh, and you can buy his book for $400.

  329. Jonas Haraldson

    @PST: I’m not at all saying that there isn’t any correlation. I absolutely think there is one – but mainly long term.

    The very sharp trend reversal just now in silver started with a 15 cent one minute red candle. If you look at the dollar development in the same general time frame, it actually dropped instead of rose. So this sudden selling pressure doesn’t seem to be correlated with the dollar. That’s all I meant.

  330. Beanie

    pimacanyon,

    How about 36,000 this decade? Probably by 2017-2018.

    This would be unprecedented if equities move to new highs and silver and gold double, triple, quadruples from here. Unprecedented.

    One thing is for sure: We will all remember this decade for generations.

  331. PST

    Thanks Jonas.

    Just trying to get a better idea of what charts you’re looking at more than challenging what you’re seeing. Appreciate it.

  332. guy

    with a whole lot of imagination this is starting to look like a weird inverse HS on the 1 hour chart for last 5 days.

  333. Jonas Haraldson

    It’s weird if you take it at face value.

    If, on the other hand, you chose to lend some credence to all the people who believe that there is too much paper metals and that the bullion banks stand to lose serious money if they have to settle their huge short positions with hefty cash premiums, it all becomes logical. The bullion banks do whatever they can to bring down the price in order to cover their shorts and also to make the charts look bearish.

    If, if that explanation is true (which nobody knows for sure) they’re certainly succeeding to create FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) even among us.

  334. Aaron

    Jonas, I see atleast two people on this blog who arent even bothered. I personally dont care for all this downdraft, even though my targets were passed on the downside (1420), its a lot easier to take if you believe in manipulation, these moves smell of desperation. Im holding on till 1600, and am not budging, be it if we close below 1410 or 1380…and thats with leverage.

  335. Sean

    FWIW: I think the 10:30am drop in Gold and Silver is connected to the unexpected buildup in oil inventories (report released at 10:30am).

  336. PST

    Haven’t seen alot about this, but can some of the recent moves be attributed to end of quarter profit taking? The reason I ask is that the 11:00-11:30 selloff coincides with the close of European markets on the second to last day of the quarter.

    I know…I’m looking too much for cause and effect, but am asking anyways.

  337. PST

    Just to add…alot more funds now have positions in Silver than even a quarter ago. I was an analyst at a fund and we made plenty of window-dressing moves prior to quarter end.

  338. Jonas Haraldson

    @Aaron, agreed. Desperation was exactly the word I was thinking myself. I’m also hanging in there with leverage. However, I’ve done three things to mitigate very short term risk:

    1) Sold some options, actually just minutes before the drop today.

    2) Changed from 4X to 2X leverage.

    3) Actually sold 20% of my holdingson the first down candle in the drop. I just felt the need to see if it’s possible to trade these things.

    Already starting to have some regrets about #3, though. I just get the feeling that silver is resisting the downward pressure better than usual. I was “hoping” for 36.8 at which target I wanted to buy back the 20% I sold.

    Meh, looks like I can add another lesson told many times by Gary and that proves to be very true. “Don’t get cute and try to trade smaller moves”. 🙂

  339. pimaCanyon

    Beanie,

    I know that’s what you’re betting on, but what will you do if stocks head south again and fail to turnaround until they hit spx 700?

  340. Eamonn

    Could I ask you PST, how you know that more Funds have positions in silver than a 1/4 ago? How is “window dressing” carried out?
    Thanks, Eamonn

  341. PST

    I don’t want to post the name of the fund, but it was an $800M distressed fund out of westchester county. We had several terrible investments in 2008, including being a major holder of chrysler credit. As a result, the fund was wound down, so I’m now a “man of leisure” until another opportunity comes up. You could say that I’m learning cycle analysis and how to trade, since I was only doing fundamental analysis before.

    If you have an interest for any particular reason, I’d be happy to talk offline or swap emails seperately.

  342. Ryan

    I agree with Sean, we seem to be tied with crude lately. If it sells off gold sells off just like it did this morning. Now I’m wondering since Gary mentioned that oil might be a potential short and if the correlation stays, wouldn’t that mean it’s going to take down gold if oil goes down as well?

  343. Gary

    E,
    Yes just follow the plan. If we get stopped out it just means we will get in either at the bottom of the D-wave or once gold decides to get in gear, which ever comes first.

  344. Wes

    Gary,

    Could the unusual behavior of gold have anything to do with the possible (and looking more probable by the day) government shutdown ?

    This is an unusual event, and if spending money by the US is bullish for gold, spending less during a shutdown would be less bullish.

    This would have the effect of strengthening the dollar.

  345. DailyMovingAvg50/200

    guy, silver looks more like a little bull flag to me, sort of, maybe. The cup-and-hangle continuation has already occured. I would not bet the farm on a chart pattern though. Patterns are probably warnings like TA indicators. They help support the case for continuation or reverasal of the long-term trend.

  346. YesLetsDiscuss

    Damn…last night, I’d decided to sell my leveraged SLV, GLD and GDXJ options into any strength today and protect profits (loss on GDXJ), while keeping the miners

    Got quite busy this morning, and now looking at that nice spike up but the violent move down is just sickening. I think will wait until the afternoon session and perhaps sell then.

  347. Clarkatroid

    eamonn,

    we have a stop thats very close to being triggered, thus booking huge profits for the year.

    yes we dont want to get stopped out, but followers of this blog can be very happy so far in 2011 even if we end up on the sidelines in the next few days.

    We are still dreamy amounts up

    Some perspective is needed i think. Its less than 12 weeks into 2011 and we’ve hit a home run already.

    The gaffer here knows what hes doing

  348. PST

    Eamonn,
    It’s purely anecdotal, and an observation based on recent conversations with friends that are still in the industry. Besides, silver trades very much like a momentum stock, so I’d be shocked if hedge funds are using it to try to pick up a couple extra basis points of performance. Even in a “distressed fund” we held GLD despite the fact that it had nothing to do with our mandate.

    In terms of windown dressing, the basic strategy is to positon your portfolio so that it appears as though you’ve been holding many of the “strong” stocks in your quarterly filing (13F). Funds will add high-flyers like apple so their investors don’t question why they have missed that boat. As it relates to something like GLD/SLV, you may not want to show that you’ve been holding these, because again they have nothing to do with your mandate.

  349. Eamonn

    Thanks PST. I’d really love to know what the scene is like inside Goldman Sachs & JP Morgan, and just how they make their money. Very interesting to know the lengths they go to

  350. pimaCanyon

    Clark,

    I saw your post from yesterday. Maybe you’ve already done this, but have you considered taking profits on half and then following Gary’s plan for the other half?

  351. LowTax

    Wes, I would think the shutdown would certainly have an affect on markets. I seem to remember that similar things happened in ’94 during that shut-down. Granted, things are a bit different now…

    So far though, today looks like a gap fill.

  352. PST

    Daniel,
    I was hoping that you sent me an email. I’ll set up a random hotmail account later and post it for you to contact me.

    Eamonn,
    I wish that I knew too. If I did…well I’d be making GS-like money now.

    All kidding aside, I never worked at a bulge bracket like GS, but I actually hated the time that I spent in banking and hedge fund jobs. I’d give you reasons, but I’d probably offend anyone on the site that worked in these types of jobs.

  353. DailyMovingAvg50/200

    Yes, gap fill explains that sudden drop at 10:24. The down trend line has been broken, and a double top put in. Maybe things are smoothing out and gold’s spat of volumless trading will be more like what occures in equities.

  354. Eamonn

    PST, I’d love to know. Tell us about you time in investment banking. Why did you dislike it? Its not a sin to have an opinion

  355. Mike

    Clarkatroid,
    My guess is it’s only going to get more volatile, so you might want to cash out some profits to buy a ready supply of clean skivvies for the ride ahead 😉

  356. PST

    New York,
    Sure. Again, I’ll put up an email later, so we can talk.

    For what it’s worth, I’ve learned more about trading from Gary and people like DG and others in the last couple of months, then any time spent at a fund. It’s these guys you should want to talk to directly instead.

  357. Gary

    Folks no need to send me emails telling me the site is down. I know it is and we’re working on it.

    I’m off to climb some rocks.

  358. PST

    Let’s just say that they are thankless jobs. Long, long hours so forget about any social life or hobbies. Alot of games and bullshit like facetime and internal politics. Plenty of mindless grunt work like pitchbooks (read the book Monkey Business: Swinging Through the Wall Street Jungle), Plenty of “difficult” personalities (ie [email protected]#holes).

    Well I guess that I just said what I wasn’t going to. This doesn’t apply as much to working at a fund though. That was more enjoyable.

  359. MrMiyagi

    I am wondering if the US$/gold/silver/stock market is returning to where it left off two weeks ago otherwise I’m confused as can be!

  360. Wes

    Low Tax,

    Do you remember any dates in 1994 when the government shut down ?

    The SPX plummeted from first of Feb. to first of Apr., but gold fell from the first till end of April.

  361. PST

    Don’t get me wrong, I have alot of friends that love every minute of it. It just wasn’t for me. I guess that may be why I’m sitting home though and they are making bank. If I could make good $$ trading and never have to report to anyone again, well that would be ideal.

  362. ALEX

    Hello All!

    EAMONN

    Just checking in at lunchtime. This looks pretty good to me ( you asked for a positive spin?) so here is something Tech analysis would observe…

    Look at he GDX ( on a 10 day chart or even a 1 month)

    March 17 to March 24 GDX ran (roughly) from 54 1/2 to 61 1/2 and Peaked at 61 1/2 on High volume. Now its overbought on stochastics a bit , so it can pull back 50% of that run , it was a 7 point run up , so 3 or 4 points back means it can retrace to roughly 57 1/2 area…it did that on lighter volume each day.

    Yesterday it turned around, closed up…today gaps open, closes the gap , and is up on same volume as yesterday already at noon. If it closes up on this volume, it looks great!

    gotta run, I LIKE the way my stocks look today!!

  363. ALEX

    Just checked a few more equities, (EXK, slw, even HL!) they have almost the same volume NOW at 1/2 day trading as they did all day yesterday and are up…that makes the 2 or 3 month chart look ‘improving’ to me . It could lead to accelerated buying.

    That would be ‘miners taking the lead” to me. GDX looks good.

    So far -so good I.M.H.O.

    Out for the day-Ride that Bull!! 😉

  364. ALEX

    Lets do that 1 more time

    SLW …March 16th to March 24th, it ran from $38 to $46 (thats an 8 point run). It gets temporarily overbought, can healthily sell off 1/2 that ( or 4 points)…so, $46-$4=$42.

    So it could pull back 4 points to $42 and that EXACTLY what it did ,hit $42 yesterday and is up today on More volume. Buyers.

    Thats a healthy chart with a run up and a normal 50% retracement, according to Tech Analysis.

    On a 2 month chart , SLW is a gorgeous cup/handle.

    ok, to the beach to climb some rocks!! (but my rocks will be in a Tall Glass 😉

    good day all!!

  365. P.K.

    I am in the bullish camp for gold/silver and I feel that Gary’s original c-wave run is still ahead of us.

    The dollar has simply back tested the breakdown.

    3 year dollar chart.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p41708806420&a=229647848&listNum=1

    Close up of breakdown and back test.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p64354632454&a=229647848

    The “imminent breakout” in the $HUI is still very much in play with a successful test of the 20sma.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p02924786020&a=229425091

  366. Hot Rod

    OA,

    Good find, thanks for posting.

    I can’t f—- believe what I just saw. Jim F—- Cramer, Mr. F—- Bullsh— himself talking about the fundamentals of silver.

    Scary f—- sh– when he is in the camp.

    I’m trying to find that article in the FT today he referenced….

  367. Avann

    Is it possible that this is just a very short daily cycle?
    Wasn’t the last a bit longer then normal … and so a shorter one here may be the explanation?
    In which case a stop at $1410 at this point is justified based on the swing low today.

  368. DG

    Sophia: A market (any market) that should go down given historical precedents, and does not go down, will go up. This sounds simple, but think about it. We are stretched on the upside, there are good historical trading studies indicating we should have gone down this week, etc., yet we keep rallying. That bodes well for the SPX over the next month or three. I am doing little with stocks at this point. They are way to “high” for me to want to buy and have too much momentum for me to short. I am just trading upside and downside individual super-extremes.

  369. sophia

    Thank you DG! I think that I am going to take your approach as trying to sell here is like committing suicide despite the crazy levels!

  370. Frank

    Jim Jubak?? That is a bad sign and what does he know that I don’t?

    Where was Jubak when it was trading around $2.70 in late 2008?

  371. Frank

    They are equally bad. He used to write insipid columns on MSN pumping the latest momo stocks and I remember seeing his garbage during the dotcom days. I am surprised that he is still around. Cramer actually ran a hedge fund in the 1990s that allegedly was successful rather than just spewing bad stock picks.

    SLW has unfortunately shown up on the radar screen of the momo crowd. I think the dimwits on CNBC have been pumping it as well.

  372. DailyMovingAvg50/200

    Cramer has been on the PM bull a along. PM is just his number three though. He has to juggle a couple of hot trades to keep everyone’s attention. Too hard to get a clear picture from him, which is why I don’t follow him.

  373. Aaron

    Dollar looking weak, its time for the FED to ask another governor to speak of possible rate hikes in the future…again.

  374. Jayhawk

    SLW looking good.

    I like how this 42 level held firm on this recent correction as well as the 10 & 20 MA’s holding firm.

    MACD histogram on the daily about to flash buy too.

    SLW

    If the HUI can get over 573 and some change, I think it will be the all time best monthly CLOSE for the index

  375. sophia

    AAron, you make me smile….It indeed sounds like one ECB guy talks and then one Fed guy talks and then one ECB guy talks…..

  376. MrMiyagi

    Cramer’s predictability is his unwavering pumping of tech stocks like NFLX, AAPL, GOOG, CRM & al, wavering between BUYBUYBUY a particular stock one episode and SELLSELLSELL the next one with no explanation.
    Sure some of his picks have made a lot of money but most have not. I got tired of watching his antics, if I wanted to see that much yelling I’d watch Maude reruns.

  377. William

    Everytime I hear Crame pump a stock I think of this quote from the Simpson’s….

    Millhouse: “I’m grounded and spend all day listening to my dad yell at Mad Money with Jim Cramer.” Millhouse’s Dad: “You said tech stocks were bullet proof!”

  378. basil

    Gary,

    I’ve recently become a subscriber. After reading last night’s report however, I am already wondering why. Confusion I can have all by myself if I choose to.

    I have been in the silver market since the May low in 2006, and I’ve done very well for myself. I subscribed to your service to see if I can do even better, instead I keep reading about frequent changes in trading strategy. Old turkey I like, only it’s nowhere to be found here.

    I don’t mind if you begin questioning your own predictions and timings; things do change short term, but why then making all that noise about nothing in the first place? Why being so cocky and over confident about silver being on the verge of a C wave blow off finale, which will be (as you put it) unlike anything any of us have ever seen before? Only to put it into question about a week later?

    I understand that, from a business perspective, a blog and paying subscribers need to be entertained; they require a ‘leader’ with strong opinions and they buy into the supposed complexity of the PM markets that can only be decrypted by mystical cycle work;
    but really, the world is full of investment analysts who are today as over confident as they were ten bad predictions ago. I for one get tired of too much talk.

    I didn’t get excited about your prediction of a C wave finale despite your uncanny certainty; that is, because I am a seasoned investor and have heard plenty of stories along the way; but you backed up your conclusions with lots of data, history, and your thorough knowledge of cycles. Now your tone has changed to a much more cautious one. You are even announcing that you are raising the sell stop on your positions. To read in your report that ‘gold is not doing what it is supposed to do’ leaves me wondering what you think it is supposed to do? Follow your call to the dot?

    Let me be clear, you are not the inventor of this PM bull and you are not even an early bird to that bull. You are trying to ride it better than others with your cycle theory. So far I am not impressed. You were dead wrong a year ago, heading into the very large spring correction of 2010. And now you are beginning to question your calls on the USD crash and the PM c wave top this spring. I thought that’s what I am paying for, timing? Is it not? If it’s not timing, then what else? That we are in a bull in silver that will run to $150, $200, or even more, that most of us already know.

    I see absolutely no reason to get discouraged because of a lingering high level consolidation in gold. A little less is better some times, otherwise it’s just idle talk and much ado about nothing.

    Thanks in advance for the angry posts that I’ll get for posting my opinion.

  379. Hot Rod

    Basil,

    You bring up some good points, this blog is about open and healthy discussions.

    Gary is still “all in” and should be commended for rethinking the situation each day as more data comes in.

    This is what good statisticians, scientists, project managers, etc. do.

    The new data either reaffirms that you are on the right track or it uncovers some issues that need strategy change.

    I I much rather have him question himself openly (humble) than sit there and say “don’t worry, I’m right, hold on, it’s turning around.”

    I am looking for facts and commentary in order to make my own decisions on investing.

    Gary gives me exactly what I am looking for.

  380. Hot Rod

    Doc,

    From my perspective, I thought the bet was on the SPX.

    You’re a stones throw away, though, looking good.

    Is there a burrito place that you have in mind, what is good out there?

    Here in NYC, nothing good. I long for the days I was in San Diego where there were a million mom and pop shops.

    Chorizo breakfast burrito
    Grilled Chicken….

    Yummy.

  381. Avann

    basil … I notice you conveniently waited for the day to correct before commenting.
    Had $1410 actually been violated I think you would have kept your mouth shut … happy trading 🙂

  382. Shalom Bernanke

    basil,

    Gary is still fully long. Considering alternative outcomes is part of trading, and the fact Gary has held firm in the face of doubt is what most here are paying for.

    Good luck, and stay long if you like money!

  383. Ben

    Gary gives me what I’m looking for, something extra. The community is a bonus.

    It’s also comedy relief as I see the massive egos strutting around every week trying to have the biggest balls. Beyond you, nobody cares.

    I’m happy if I can squeeze an extra couple percent out per year over how I was doing before.

  384. n1tro

    i think gary wouldn’t question himself so much if there weren’t so much panic on the blog and the countless emails he gets from noobs. chill out already. for those who got scared and sold already and now seeing metals pull back, get ready to chase. gary gave the level to pull the trigger *if* you want to protect your profits. cycles aren’t perfect but a lot better than the guessing you were doing before is it not?

  385. Poly

    basil,

    This isn’t “an angry response” in return.
    But your post shows a complete lack of understanding regarding trading strategy. To even question the need to change strategy when evidence warrants this underlines this observation.

    As for being cocky, hey if you’re not 100% behind your primary idea/stategy, you’re never going to commit to it. The difference is knowing when it’s failed/reversed and being able to execute an exit and/or an alternative strategy.

    If you’ve traded silver successfully since 2006, with the unbelievable volatility, congrats. Maybe going back to buy and hold metals is your best option.

  386. Brian

    Yeah basil I don’t really understand your complaints here. You bring up the one turning point he didn’t “nail” but fail to mention all the others he did. One of the best qualities an investor can have is being able to adjust quickly to situations where the market is going against your plan. This is one of those situations.

  387. rapper

    Basil,
    A plan is just that. Follow 1382 or 1410. Fade gary when he seems too excited. Follow your own plan at this point and keep what Gary wrote in the background. Gary is helping people, that are probably way too emotional, protect profits. Most of those folks won’t be able to buy back over gold 1450 so there will be more crying then if that’s what plays out. After watching the overnight action I knew we would be up so I am going to take it one day at a time.

  388. Romeo Bravo

    DG, I think to get our parabolic C wave happy ending, something in the general market is going to have to give. For the metals to clearly outperform, I think the general market is either going to have to weaken or at least go sideways for the next few weeks that coincides with the end of the C.

    Otherwise if the general market is rocketing up, why would people pile into the PMs?
    There has to be some kind of incentive for people to move over to them.

  389. Frank

    I agree with many of your points, Basil. I use Gary’s analysis as one input along with my own analysis that is much more intuitive as well as other sources. Sometimes I strongly disagree with Gary, but the big picture is that I share the view of PMs. E.g. Feb 2010, I established large long-term positions in SLW and GDXJ in another account that I manage where intentionally had no exposure to PMs. Gary’s analysis at that point was that we were entering a D wave.

    But Gary also some goes all-in with leverage, so you would obviously be more trigger happy and concerned about corrections. I would never expose myself like that.

  390. thedocument

    Hot Rod,

    Fair enough. I’ll wait for a new high, though under my methodology, we have a new intermediate cycle whether or not we see a new high.

    I didn’t find any great burrito joints during my year in NYC, but my favorite restaurant was an Argentinian place called Cafe Ronda (Columbus & 72nd). I highly recommend the mojito and the lomo mariposa 🙂

  391. Matthew

    Basil,

    I actually completely agree with you and am also recently on here. I Have been holding pm since the drop in 08 and have also done very well. I think the reason people are doing so well is because yes you are in the right macroeconomic trend (long silver). So ya you are going to do well. Heck I am up 75% in the since sep-oct ish. Is everyone going to hang on my every word…prob not.

  392. DG

    Basil: If you are strictly Old Turkey you do not need this blog nor his nightly posts. If you want to occasionally get in or out (his portfolio changes are few), it is best to allow someone to change his mind as the incoming data changes. Gold is in fact not acting as if we are where he thought we were in the cycle. That is new data and could not be known until it happened—which is now. Should the new data be ignored for the sake of “consistency”? He hung in there last year and got smacked for it. This year he is trying to prevent that and is getting criticized for it. You can’t have it both ways. The only alternative is to never be wrong and never have the market behave in a surprising way…then you never need to change your expectations. Good luck with that.

    You also make a number of bogus statements. For example:
    “To read in your report that ‘gold is not doing what it is supposed to do’ leaves me wondering what you think it is supposed to do? Follow your call to the dot?” If you read the report you’d know what you said is just plain wrong. What gold shouldn’t be doing is have multiple consecutive down days at this point. He has made that clear both in the report and on the blog. If you don’t read the stuff it’s not surprising that you are, in your own words, confused. I am not confused in the slightest and I am no genius. Sounds like this site is probably not for you. Many of us have made a pile following Gary’s advice and strategies. If you can’t or won’t, well, that’s of course up to you. Impugning his motives (to entertain not to serve) is insulting and uncalled for. Your opinion on that plus a nickel is worth about, well, five cents.

  393. Otis

    Question for longterm subscribers. I noticed back when we were looking for the IT bottom and Gary entered early there were some complaints of forgetting “old turkey” (Onlooker comes to mind). Has Gary’s approach changed as the C wave matured? I know the old turkey philosophy is what attracted me, but also understand that as a move matures, one may need to be more flexible/cautious. I do notice that after the IT bottom there has been more short term “squiggles” discussions on the board and maybe less mention of “gobble gobble”. I always considered the short term conversations entertainment as we allowed our core to run.

  394. Poly

    Matthew,

    Of course any Old turkey investor in metals is up BIG! You will get no arguments here, it’s a bull market after all.

    But taking the “trades” from this blog, whether they are to get out, go back to core or leverage up, have resulted in greatly out performing old turkey.

    There really have been fairly few trades posted by Gary, these are just stops/strategy changes.
    But if the noise is still too much, just sit Old Turkey, you will do wonderfully well and you don’t need a subscription for that.

  395. Clarkatroid

    thanks for the advice guys. i have thought about banking a win here for half my profits.

    my finger was hovering over the sell button a few times in the last week or so, including today when the smackdown occured.

    but the problem is ive bought into garys leadership, if i go 50% cash i wouldnt know when to re enter and invariably get it wrong, so ive decided to stay strong and follow the 1410 stop out to the letter

    Last nights report with this tighter stop is really re assuring as i now know im banking most the profits whatever happens

  396. pimaCanyon

    basil,

    Ironic that you’re expecting “angry posts” in response to your angry post.

    From a logical perspective I’m trying to figure out what you’re so upset about.

    You have been in PM’s since 2006 and made a lot of money. That’s great!

    You like the concept of going Old Turkey. That’s great!

    So why did you sign up for Gary’s service? If you’re going to just go old turkey, you don’t need his service. And if you want to do something other than old turkey, then why are you getting upset with him for NOT going old turkey???

  397. pimaCanyon

    Clark,

    I don’t want to talk you out of your new plan, but as far as when to get back in (if you do sell half), I would just follow Gary’s plan for getting back in if stops are hit. You get back in on a break to new highs.

  398. pimaCanyon

    DailyMovingAvg,

    Gold futures (June) made a lower low on 3/28. Today’s low did not go that low.

    What are you looking at that shows today’s low being lower than the 3.28 low?

  399. pimaCanyon

    TJ,

    I don’t see that it’s confirmed today. Doesn’t today’s high need to be HIGHER than the high on 3/28? My charts do not show that, today’s high is lower than 3/28 high.

  400. Clarkatroid

    re basils post

    i think its right you post how your feeling, and im glad that you havent recieved a hostile response from the board. Its a healthy signal that most folk here are intelligent,open minded and dont have the blinkers on.

    Nothing worse than a bunch of stuck in the mud gold bugs

    I do think though that your a little premature in posting your criticism if youve only recently joined.

  401. notGreedIsGood

    hey DOCUMENT

    are you still here? will you offer us a discount into your subscription service? Gary has from time to time, and it will increase your subscription base 🙂

  402. Aaron

    I never understood why Gary gave discounts, and i certainly dont know why Document would. Both of these services are amazing deals for what you get in return.
    You guys can make the amount you pay for the subscription in a day’s trading.

  403. pimaCanyon

    I have been using Gold futures for charting, not GLD, because futures trade nearly around the clock.

    Spot would be another way to do it.

    I wouldn’t trust an ETF to give accurate highs and lows because of the limited trading hours.

  404. Beksachi

    Looks like some folks to need to remember this is “Smartmoneytracker” – not solely focused on precious metals.

    Goldbugs (like myself) who have been in PM for over 5 years are happy but I realized I can even MORE happier better utilizing my capital by following where the smart money goes.

    This is why I read Gary – for example, I believe he mentioned some time ago that we will be getting into stocks at some point this year.

  405. T.J. Rand

    Pima-

    I amy be a bit premature or even in error if Gary is using in Market Hours only. I’m using the 24 hr spot price that resets at 6:00 PM. I show the high on Monday of 1428.08…and today’s high as 1430.29…don’t know when 1430 was hit, but I watched Gold tick above Monday’s high pre-open at 8:30 EST.

  406. catbird

    There’s been much talk about emotions here of late.

    What does it mean to be bored?

    I guess in my case it means February (and last fall) spoiled me.

    In truth I’m not really stressing about the chance I get stopped out at $1410…just tired of waiting for the PMs to make me more money. : )

  407. pimaCanyon

    Beksachi,

    I think you’re mistaken about getting into stocks. I believe Gary said the time to get into stocks will be when the PM bull has run its course. That would be 2016 at the earliest, more likely 2020. I believe Gary has also said stocks are in a long term bear until late in the decade, probably 2020.

    We might SHORT stocks if Gary sees an opportunity to get in on the ride down into the anticipated 2012 low.

  408. Avann

    FWIW … I think gold has definitely put in a swing low today and I also think that we may look back on this a very short daily cycle.
    I have repurchased everything I sold yesterday with a stop at $1410.

  409. Clarkatroid

    pima, im just sticking to the plan mate.

    im not afraid to admit i do hang off garys everyword, but im not stupid enough to stick around if he loses the plot

  410. YesLetsDiscuss

    Sold some of my calls a few minutes ago – April SLV 30 (huge profit) and June GLD 140 (small loss).

    Reason is to reduce the account volatility. Still have other calls.

    Itchin to sell the GDXJ May 42 calls. It would be more than a small loss right now and don’t mind it, but GDXJ is looking strong at the moment, so likely to hold off on those.

    Anyone else holding GDXJ calls?

  411. Beksachi

    Thanks for clarifying PC- yes, what I meant to say was that SMT is open to using whatever optimum strategy at the time (shorting or long stocks, PMs) to make lots of money.

    There are no attachments.

  412. Driver

    DMA,

    GLD did make a lower low today, by a dime. That means it wasn’t a swing low for that holding. You would now need to get a print above 139.18 to form a swing low (if that remains the high of today.)

  413. Edwin

    woohoo go precious metals go.

    silver, platinum and gold are taking off.

    see 3 weeks of uptime we’re here bar no catastrophe in the world occurs.

    level to watch for a gold is 1480, silver 40.

  414. Edwin

    gold is getting a little volatile with all the technical trading happening..

    swing high, swing low, trend breaks etc.

    if i was controlling the market (which a few key players do), i would look at these levels and break them all. 🙂

    MrMiyagi – loved you in Karate Kid, yeah we’re looking at the same market. depends on what time frame you’re looking at it. i’m look at a weekly.

  415. thedocument

    notGreedIsGood,

    At the risk of sounding immodest, I think the price I charge for the letter is already a discount. I mean, what’s $180 if I help time a few big trades better? Anyway, I write the letter mostly to help myself think, and I charge a fee to keep participation limited to serious traders. Better for everyone that way.

    By the way, I moved back to Atlanta 3 years ago, and as much as NY is known for its dining, my favorite restaurants are still in Atlanta.

  416. thedocument

    Eamonn,

    Unless something is wrong with the outlook for a continued rally, we should see prices break higher again any day now. Gold is still too early in its daily cycle to see PMs roll over.

  417. The Angry Hippie

    I love it when you post SB. That beatific smile make me feel like everything is going to be ok. Big Ben looks so darn proud of himself. He must be heavily invested in PMs, huh?

  418. DG

    Not a bad start, given the miners up a good bit more than the metals. It is interesting to have this much anxiety so close to the highs. One good day would change everything.

    BTW, I don’t post all my short-term trades. I try to cherry pick for the blog. I typed up and then deleted my short in PHM yesterday as it was a slightly less confident one. I should have gone all in on that one or at least posted it! If someone can tell me ahead of time which ones are going to work, I’d be much obliged.

  419. Ryan

    DG,

    Do you have any opinion about c and rimm? I’m still holding a bit of citi and thinking of putting some money in rimm?

  420. DG

    Eamonn: no blog. I just post here when it strikes me to.

    Ryan: I rarely have an opinion on a random stock. I use screens and when one meets my criteria i do it. That said, rimm should bounce after one more down day as it will reach maximum overdone-on-the-downside. But I won;t trade it as it doesn’t meet my standards.

  421. ALEX

    BASIL

    Again I am joining the bad guy 🙂

    Just that there’s nothing wrong with what Basil said…He has traded the p.m.’s for yrs. Has done well. Has signed up for a service to help him with his ‘timing’, and doesnt feel he has rec’d anything more than a confusing mssg SINCE SIGNING UP. He has the right to say so.

    Everyone stepped up and said ‘Anyone needs to be willing to change their plan mid-course or risk losing money’. TRUE( I agree), but it is true that each NEW POST is SO Overconfident..Like “GET OUT”, which we’ve heard since OCT for the SPX. Comments like… Technical Analysis chartists are DEAD WRONG!They will miss this parabbolic move!! But they weren’t. They’ll be buying dips.

    There was the POST “Energy stocks are NOT where you want to invest!!” about 4 months ago ( see SD, HERO, BRNC, IO, ICO, PCX, PQ, HK) …most doubled. It Never was mentioned again.

    You feel the writer knows so much more than anyone else,and everyone just follows (and as he put it in 1 report) any chartist idiot that draws lines on a chart…is going to miss this move in GOLD. Maybe they saw signs of consolidation and changed sooner,sold highs and rebought lows. : )

    I am one of those idiots by trade, and have done extremely well going with at times, and against Garys calls, based on charts. So I will say that I love Garys cycle analysis even though he condemns ours ,(even when we are correct later). ENERGY was a Great Trade, with oil breaking $100.
    I think BOTH TOGETHER work the best!

    And I read BASIL’s post after 2 Bonbini drinks, so had to speak up for his opinion.

    Back to the beach!!

  422. Edwin

    Ryan

    rimm – if you want the same type of volatility without company risk buy qld. nasdaq is about to leap.

    citi (c) you’re due for some more downside.. this is one of the stocks that leads up/downs, just buy the spy for neutrality sake.

    you’re catching falling knifes on those trades..

  423. Hot Rod

    Alex,

    Notice how Basil posts and is silent the rest of the day, seems like he/she does not want to openly discuss – only throw something out there.

  424. Wes

    After today, the stock market is short term overbought for the first time since last September.

    If it moves up from here before first correcting this overbought condition, then we’re in for something special, IMHO.

    I think it corrects the overbought condition, but I’m happy enough not to be in the stock market, now.

  425. Wes

    Low Tax,

    The stock market was straight up pretty much all of 1995. No reaction to the shutdown.

    I’ll check gold when I find time.

  426. Hot Rod

    At Ease,

    It’s funny because I don’t really use the I-clouds much. Last night I threw them in there during TA because I was just searching and searching for something given the very strange drifting lower behavior over the past couple days.

    We’re not out of the woods yet. Closing again over 37 is great, bouncing back from a raid (again) today was great, but there are still signs that we are hanging by a thread.

    One very big positive that was mentioned by someone today is the fact that we didn’t immediately fall off a cliff after the run up over 38.

    If you look back at all the other big silver tops, you see an immediate and aggressive reversal down.

    This might be why so many here have itchy trigger fingers. I think we can all agree that if/when the C wave top comes, we’ll have a short window to get off the speedy train before giving up sizable gains.

    What is easier, catching a falling knife or jumping on a moving elevator?

  427. ...at ease

    I agree, Basil has some points, however the attitude could use some adjusting. A lot of us look for experienced mentorship here, as we are not all experts. So if Basil has something constructive to contribute to us, (especially us new subs), we are all ears. However, we do find it difficult to listen to someone berate our chosen mentor’s services on a tough bull ride.
    Alex, even with a few drinks you are always the diplomat. I think all folks are saying is that even Basil can learn something here, if he is open to participating and contributing to our knowledge bank here. It’s a group think and you can’t rough up the crowd without getting a little stomping on. Cheers all, we are all in the same boat waiting for the tide to bring us in!

  428. Donagh

    Interesting results using Jon Townsends’ TSI indicator tonight.
    (I know Gary doesn’t believe in tracking every wriggle, but I’m looking for some comfort here!)

    On the 4-hour chart, the TSI fell all the way to zero since last week, but bounced nicely off the zero-line today, which should mean more upside ahead.

    The daily chart is less clear-cut because of the flat week we’ve had. But (grasping that straw!) it does seem to have turned up marginally today.

  429. ...at ease

    Doc, I don’t subscribe to your service, however I would think if you are as good as Gary, your service is priced well.
    Folks are either in group think or not, but what i like about Gary’s service is he will change course as needed. No one likes change, it takes effort, that’s what all the guffawing is about.
    I admire Gary for just getting up when everything looks fine and gets out and plays. If things are hairy, he hangs in here with us. He sets the even keel tone for the group.

  430. basil

    SB,

    I certainly was never out. The last time I was out was out was in January, or did you ever read here that I was out or intended to sell?

    Avann,

    I didn’t conveniently wait for anything. I was commenting on last nights report. What would be a better time than doing it the morning after the night report. Get a grip.

  431. basil

    James r,

    perhaps I lost any credibility with you. Not sure what makes you think you can talk for the whole blog.
    As for you, I don’t even know who you are, and never took note of you or your posts before.

  432. Poly

    Come on guys, its a $200 subscription that has an amazing track record, but NOTHING is going to be perfect, nobody is!

    If you think you’re going to sign up for a service and get rich sitting on your ASS trading somebody else posts with 4x the leverage that person recommended, then you’re just plain ignorant! Sorry if that offends.

  433. MrMiyagi

    Lets not make this board into a fight club because I value the input not the arrogance.
    Don’t make me wax on wax off, you don’t want to see that!

  434. basil

    Matthew,

    thanks. Glad to know some at least shares some of my thoughts.

    DG,

    let’s say I just doubt the ‘data’. Data doesn’t change that often and neither should opinions. I like holding old turkey, but don’t mind trading let’s say twice a year. But this year is still you and this blog has already traded in and out multiple times and is contemplating another exit. That doesn’t sound o me like cycle work, that sounds to me like frequent trading. As for the nightly reports, I like to believe that I do read them thoroughly enough to comment on them. I don’t think any of my statements is bogus. Also, I am not at all confused. I wrote that if I would like to choose to be confused I could do so and get there by myself, I don’t need to pay for a newsletter to get confused because of confusing strategies. That’s all.

  435. jeff

    basil
    you can add if you want. heres one for you.
    i was worked up and skiddish and over leveraged and i got myself in a spot. when we hit the high and started to pull back, i went flat at 1430/1435 and bought may 1440 calls. well now im sweating it. think we will make it up there in time. im inclined to dump them

  436. Wes

    >>>What gold shouldn’t be doing is have multiple consecutive down days at this point. <<<

    That’s a pretty interesting statement that you’re buying into DG. What the heck do you think gold ought to be doing and why ?

    If somebody is wrong here, I’m betting it’s not gold.

    You ?

  437. basil

    SB,

    I was expecting angry responses, because I know this blog a little, and like any investment blog this one has a lot of devotion to the guy who runs the blog. Nothing wrong with that, but not my personal choice, particularly if I find that he is hyping the c wave finale for weeks on end only to back paddle then. My conclusion is, yes I don’t need to pay for that service and I can pick tops and bottoms just as well. No one needs to get offended by that or by the fact that I choose to voice that opinion. I am not angry, just a bit annoyed by cockiness in the investment world, because it usually fails to be backed up with anything solid.

  438. ...at ease

    …and gosh darn why didn’t he Gary see that Tsunami coming that would destroy the nuc plants and that BB and crowd would meet worldwide to print even more money???
    Geeessshhhh!

  439. DG

    Basil: I never have a problem with someone disagreeing with a strategy. In fact, it is often helpful and educational, but if you want to just vent, it’s pretty pointless. Saying that Gary is busy entertaining instead of writing a serious newsletter merely shows how poor you are at discerning character.

    “Data doesn’t change that often.” I don’t even know what that means. Doesn’t it depend on what the data is, or are you saying no data ever changes “often.”(?) Every time a prior low is broken the upward zig-zag is violated, That’s an actual change. Seriously, if you don’t think that’s a valid approach just cancel your subscription. But when a prior low is broken Gary may well post about it. If you want to stay Old Turkey, that’s absolutely fine, but there’s no point in posting with an attitude. I’m telling you ahead of time it’s going to happen, so don’t be shocked and annoyed when it does. It’s the attitude that irked me not your intelligent comments. Debate is great; venting no so useful.

  440. basil

    Clarktroid,

    I have been following this blog since about late 2009, more actively since early 2010. I joined about six weeks ago when Gary put out his final c wave finale calls. I joined because I wanted to follow his arguments and his case more closely and to profit in case he is right. Turns out he isn’t so sure anymore, and I don’t see the reason why. To me things look just as good as they did six weeks ago.
    Anyway, it’s not the first time though that I have criticized Gary’s over-confidently presented calls on this blog.

  441. catbird

    To the more experienced traders here:

    Say one has made nice profits off a big honking position in shares of an ETF like AGQ.

    To reduce downside risk, what’s wrong with selling all the shares and immediately putting a fraction of the capital you just had in the shares into options of something similar (like SLW or SLV) with the purpose being to drastically lower your committed capital, and hence, your potential losses.

    Thoughts?

  442. ...at ease

    Jeff, hang in there, you should know soon whether your calls are good or not. I am in deep in the money on some May calls and some are in profits and the others still aren’t profiting (my entries), however I still have time with those May calls, if not it’s a wash. Patience.

  443. DailyMovingAvg50/200

    It’s a white spinning top, so may not be a problem. I think it was a red spnning top that was the start of the last problems.

    If a White Spinning Top is observed after a long rally or a long white candlestick, this implies weakness among the bulls and it is a warning about a potential change or interruption in trend.

    If a White Spinning Top is observed after a long decline or a long black candlestick, this implies weakness among the bears and it is a warning about a potential change or interruption in trend.

    http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs03.asp

  444. basil

    At Ease,

    I have contributed some in the past; but I guess I choose to do it more rarely. I surely have an open mind, but that open mind also recognizes arguments and strategies that are not so sound.

  445. Brian

    Obviously what Gary writes is his opinion. Whether it is expressed in a “cocky” way does not change the fact. The good thing is he knows when his opinion could be wrong and readily lets his subs know too.

    To me it sounds like you feel ripped off because what Gary said was going to happen hasn’t yet. You also said that you didn’t get worked up about all the C-wave finale talk, but it really seems like you did. If you didn’t you wouldn’t be venting about Gary’s cockiness.

  446. Wes

    Hot Rod,

    >>This might be why so many here have itchy trigger fingers. I think we can all agree that if/when the C wave top comes, we’ll have a short window to get off the speedy train before giving up sizable gains.<<

    This will almost certainly be true when the final C wave is underway, with the public buying precious metals hand over fist.

    But, I’m not so sure about this C wave having a spike reversal. It certainly may, but I don’t think we can compare it to 1980, yet. We just don’t have the excess sentiment associated with 1980 so far.

  447. sophia

    Basil,

    I really don’t get it! Gary told us to get out in December and he was right by 110 $. Then, he told us to get on the wagon with Agq at 131 and it is now at 220…
    What do you need?

  448. basil

    DG,

    sorry to read that you are taking issue with my attitude. I don’t think there was anything wrong with my post.

    As for data, I am talking for fundamental and technical reasons to be in or out of a position. I just don’t think those reasons change that often.

  449. ...at ease

    Basil, What is not sound about having an exit strategy if the laid out plan blows up? Wouldn’t that be part of good stategic planning? Gary has adjusted as the market has turned that’s all.

  450. basil

    Brian,

    no I didn’t get worked up about his call for a c wave finale that was supposed to bring us riches, but I am admittedly a little annoyed that he now back paddles for what I think are no good reasons.

  451. basil

    Jeff,

    I am long AGQ and a very, very small position SBR.TO and SQI.V

    The fact that I am long and holding explains my position, I don’t see the need to discuss it every day.

  452. San Diego Jack

    Basil,
    I am a new sub too, and the last couple days were tortuous for me, but my porfolio perfomed well today, so I am much more relaxed.
    Trying to forecast in realtime is hard & I’ve lost plenty in equities, thinking I had it all down. But Redwine has it right:
    “Fog of War”
    You do the best you can, while in the fight, and I think that is what Gary is attempting to do for us all, especially us newer people.

    Hang in there! I am.

  453. ...at ease

    Basil, Gary will actually comment when he is going out climbing. He did this morning. I just wanted to point out that other services I subscribe too, even the big gold experts who work in the field, are saying the market is volatile right now and although a C wave climb was expected April/May and although it rose today, it still may not take off for two days, two weeks or two months. How’s that for pintpoint timing. And this service costs me 5 times as much as Gary’s. However, Gary provides more a daily temperature on gold/silver which I like to know going on daily that I can learn from, not someone saying, just wait, it will come. So just to give you another view of services available out there compared to Gary’s.

  454. basil

    Jeff,
    you got it right, I am long silver from years back.
    I follow the likes of Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Eric Sprott, James Turk, etc. for years. They were talking about silver already in 1998. That’s the beauty of modern media, you have access to and can learn from the best; you can pick and choose, and you don’t need to waste time reading posts you don’t care for; only once in a while to have a good time.

  455. Avann

    Why is everyone still feeding him … he comes on, challenges (with an attitude), very timely and adds absolutely no value.
    Enough.

  456. San Diego Jack

    Basil, I have followed Faber, Rogers and some of the tail-coaters that link to their blogs. They are not always correct, but then again, they will tell you that too.
    Trying to buy a few options on Roger’s RJI, since I think it will jump higher in the next few months.

  457. JD

    Basil writes:

    “Turns out he isn’t so sure anymore, and I don’t see the reason why. To me things look just as good as they did six weeks ago.”

    Guys, correct me if I’m wrong, but this is troll country, is it not.

    What’s the rule with trolls?

    Do not feed, right?

  458. basil

    at ease,

    I neither meant to talk down Gary’s genuine effort to provide good insight to his subscribers, nor did I mean to say that it is easy to predict market swings in PMs or that there are better investment letters out there. I guess, what I tried to say and/or concluded myself is a) that I don’t like cockiness in the world of investment analysis, b) I really do not need an investment letter that tells me what I already know, namely that silver is an extraordinary investment vehicle probably for years to come, and c) I am able to time my entries and exits all by myself.

  459. basil

    San Diego Jack,
    exactly my point. Jim Rogers loves telling people how bad of a market timer he is; Faber also likes to point out how often he gets it wrong. That’s why I follow them. And while wrong on specific market timing calls they got the macro picture right pretty much always.

  460. DG

    About troll feeding: I usually respond once or twice to see if the creature has a sufficiently developed neocortex to learn anything. Once that test is complete either they show some signs of progress (rare, but occasionally) or the food is withheld. I think we know what to do here.

  461. Avann

    You know, when Hamster came on all cocky and then decided to leave … I was disappointed because hammy had some good insight. I was very happy when he returned … haven’t heard from him in a while … I wish he would drop in.
    But this one … it has absolutely no value whatsoever … nothing but hot air.
    Sorry … that’s the last from me … I promise 🙂

  462. San Diego Jack

    Basil, three points here:
    1) Macro views only help if you buy & hold. Step away from the trees, you see a forest. Go up in the air, you see pasture, but a million miles, you see an enticing blue & green globe.
    With this service, you are getting in and out at the profit points, neither Faber or Rogers do that.
    2) Cockiness is one thing, confidence is another. I liked his assuredness, and his chart explanations. Plus, the community gave him high praise when I asked of Gary’s track record.
    3)If you are so quickly dissatisfied with the service, contact Gary via email, and request a refund.

    Personally, I followed the blog for awhile, learning along the way, then jumped on when Gary made the 15 month offer.

    When you disparage the fearless leader, you may be ignored at best, hammered at worst.
    Good luck to you Basil.

  463. basil

    DG,

    I must have hit a terribly weak spot with you and some others, if you start referring to me as a troll and a brainless creature. Congrats on being so above my posts then.

  464. Avann

    Eamonn, absolutely. If you locate in either southern Ontario or British Columbia it’s a great place to live. The weather is not as bad as everyone thinks. In fact southern Ontario is on the same latitude as northern California.
    In Toronto, we get about 2 lousy, wintery months, 2 cold months and 2 rainy months. May thru September are all very nice months. I’m an avid cyclist and can cycle as early as April and as Late as October. Come on up!

  465. basil

    San Diego Jack:

    3) = is exactly what I am going to do. Perhaps DG, Avann, James r, and Jeff can put in a good word for my refund with their fearless and beloved leader.
    Thanks all! Good luck!

  466. San Diego Jack

    OMG!!!

    I’ve been spending part of my time with Loonies (Canucks, more like)?

    Avann, do they still put in formlydehyde in the beer up there? Used to get pounding headaches after drinking a couple of Moosehead beers, and had to stop.
    (although, I really liked the beer)

  467. TZ(4404)

    BASIL,

    Don’t worry about DG. He has a big ego. I’ve tried to explain it to him and suggest he have more humility than always coming off like he does.

    Sometimes his posts really have a condescending nature to them. He has good things to say of course, but the “I’m the smartest guy on the planet” vibe can be too much.

    🙂

  468. Avann

    San Diego Jack … formlydehyde?? Huh?
    I’ve never heard of that … I like my beer and drink beers from all over the world including the odd Canuck beer but I have never heard that before.

  469. San Diego Jack

    Thats what I was told way back then, that is was an additive they used that effected like that.
    You know, they put stuff in beer, for clarity, longer lasting heads etc.
    Haven’t done it, but German Beer, made in Germany, is prohibited from adding anything, so in essence, it is an “All Natural” product, or as I call it “holistic.”

    I crack me up!

  470. Mike

    Catbird,
    Gary has done just that in the last intermediate decline in Dec/Jan timeframe (got out of AGQ and into SLV, but also reduced total committed capital). It is a good defense if you expect some sideways or downside action due to decay of leveraged funds. It also would limit upside of course if we shoot straight up from here.

    Basil,
    Gary offers more than just calls which he has a good track record of. He is a good coach for being invested in a very volatile sector. If you can hold old turkey w/o that more power to you. I still think he does offer an “edge” with respect to sidestepping major drawdowns, and also keeping people level headed by not liquidating during minor drawdowns.

    Mike

  471. Wes

    basil,

    I think you are not getting a square hearing, here.

    I have had, over the course of many months, numerous conversations with Gary because I simply don’t agree with his worldview on why we have this bull market in PM’s. These have been public and civil discussions in which I’ve been completely unsuccessful in changing his views.

    Frankly, I think he’s wrong about some fundamental issues. But, at the same time, I acknowledge Gary as the best market timer I’ve ever seen.

    Because of the latter, I’m content to just (mostly silently) disagree with him about those issues. I don’t think it’s all that important as to why we have a PM bull market and I continue to take advantage of his market timing.

    Gary can make you some serious money with his trades, as opposed to buy and hold, if you just let him.

    I can understand your frustration with his “not a doubt in the world” fundamental calls. I just sort of say “there he goes again” and move on.

    I suggest you adopt a similar attitude. Unlike the “blowhards” you may be used to, Gary is the true gentleman in his dealing with us all.

    There is a great deal worth knowing to be learned from Gary, and he’ll deliver if you let him.

  472. Mike

    Sorry Catbird, didn’t see you mentioned options. That adds another level of complexity and can decay more than AGQ itself in a sideways or downtrending market…

  473. Avann

    SDJ … I’ll have to do my own DD on that. I mostly drink European beers out of a keg … I have 2 taps setup in my bar (yes I like my beer) … so I likely have nothing to worry but I’ll look into it.

  474. catbird

    Mike,

    Yeah, I remember Gary doing that, but I guess I was thinking go one step further because options allow you to risk even less capital while still letting you win big if we surge higher.

    Iow, say I have $100k tied up in AGQ, but I think we might be chopping around a long time, or even moving down. Instead of selling and buying $100k of SLV, why not sell and buy $30k worth of SLV options.

    See what I’m getting at? Drastically less capital at risk.

  475. San Diego Jack

    Avann, You have TWO keggers in your home? Man, do I have a newfound respect for you!
    I love Amstel Light, Heinekein and yes, Corona (in my blood & next to border!).
    What are your favorites?

  476. n1tro

    Eamonn,

    I wouldn’t recommend southern ontario or vancouver just yet. Housing bubble hasn’t burst yet. A friend at work just bought a 2100sq ft house for $600,000 and thinks it’s a good deal since it has 9′ ceilings. I’m going to use him as buy gauge when dumb money piles into metals so I know when to sell.

  477. Avann

    SDJ … yes 2. Old Turkey means to buy and hold (pretty much forever). Gary has a short story that explains it … ask him for the link.

  478. ...at ease

    SD Jack, Not for sure, but I think it has to do with a story from wall street where an old guy holds his positions when the trend is up and doesn’t (and sell in and out) because he doesn’t want to lose his position. Correct me please if I am wrong, as I would like to know for sure also.

  479. Avann

    n1tro … you are right about housing in Canada … the bubble has yet to burst and it most likely will but it will not fall like it did in the US.
    I’m expecting a max 20% reduction in prices over perhaps 2 – 5 years. I’ve been waiting a long time and still nothing.

  480. San Diego Jack

    I am Realtor in Southern California, so I watch the local & US market closely. Here is an excerpt from an article today:

    * 30% loans in foreclosure have not made a payment in over 2 years
    * 47% loans in foreclosure have not made a payment in 18 months

    We have a hidden inventory, that once released, is gonna be a killer, if the Mortgage Interest Deduction takeaway doesn’t get us first.

    You Canadians are faring better, but still have to watch out.

  481. Wes

    basil, Poly

    I can certainly afford to be sage :).

    Thanks in no small part to Gary, my account closed at an all-time high today.

  482. Poly

    As for change of plans and trading strategy, I’ve got news for you. As this bull progresses, the swings will get wilder, deeper, steeper and faster as the volatility really picks up. This type of action happens as every man and his dog picks up the scent and greed gets out of control.

    Take a very close and detailed look at the NASDAQ swings during the final years of that bull from 96-01. That type of action is what we will soon have to deal with, this bull is 10 years young do not forget. Picking and riding these waves will be an ever evolving process that will change on a dime.

    So go ahead play old turkey and make a reasonable cash out at the top. For me, I’m going to juice every swing and cycle out of this bull that I can, easier money is hard to come by.

  483. Mike

    Catbird, I see your logic but you’re not going to get a free lunch with options. It’s true you free up more cash because you’re using a leveraged instrument, but you’re not reducing risk. For your eg:
    $100k of AGQ is equal to $200k of SLV.
    If you then sell and buy $30k of SLV options that gets you roughly $200k of SLV exposure, that same amount of capital is still at risk and can go to zero even if it expires out of the money. Additionally there is decaying premium with the options so that $200k exposure has cost overhead that evaporates overtime. Not recommended for most.

    I mainly just use them in my IRA where I can’t use margin to get a *little* leverage, but I often use a spread to offset premium decay and limit downside risk.
    Mike

  484. Intern

    SB,

    Did I understand you to say that you’ll sell down to a core in D-wave, not sell all? Just wondering your strategy/thoughts why

  485. Mike

    When I say same amount of capital, I mean it will fluctuate just like owning $100k of AGQ, plus the premium lost.

    If AGQ were to go to zero, then yes you would only lose $30k as opposed to $100k, but that is unlikely to happen.

  486. basil

    SB,

    just out of curiosity, what do you do when you don’t hang out here, which I can see doesn’t happen too often?

    As for the whining part, I’ve done very well in silver and I’m in it for a long time. I owe my gains to the silver bull, not to Gary. My gains in this bull and/or whether we are about to take off or not is none of my concerns and has absolutely nothing to do with my six week old subscription.

  487. basil

    SB,

    look what I found on your blogger profile:

    “Interests:
    Robbing all Americans by devaluing their currency hopefully slowly enough they don’t realize it was our plan all along. We don’t really work but instead convince or force you to hand over more of your productivity all the time.”

    Apart from being anti-American, what are your other hobbies?

  488. San Diego Jack

    …at ease (regarding Mortgage Interest Deduction),

    Oh Hell Yes! The people running the country want as much money from you as they can get. This has been in the mix for a very, very long time, and they are waiting for the right time to take it away, using an excuse of deficits or lack of taxable income etc. This is nothing new.
    Another proposal is to limit or cap the other deductions to 12.5% of income for property taxes & chartible donations.

    Remember, if they take 100% of your income, they will spend 105%!

  489. basil

    SB,

    why don’t you meet up with your best blog friends forever some time outside this blog? There’s a real world out there, you know. I mean you and those subs here who keep track of their masters hiking schedule?

  490. Bob loves Hawaii

    If I may weigh in, I followed Gary a year before I joined, a year ago, and what I notice is Gary is almost always early, shows momentary concern on his decision, and then is most often right in the end. I factor this into my trades, as I scale in when Gary gives the high sign, usually only hedge when Gary drops portflio size, and will scale out when Gary exits his positions.

    I think the real anxiety everyone is feeling is a mismatch between reality and expectations. This is the worst emotion of all, and is historically the reason most rebellions happen.

    I am seeing this with people outside of this blog who expecting gold and silver to take off and are getting extremely frustrated, yet we are nearly at all time highs.

    Basil encapsulated his frustrations very well, but he sent it to the wrong place, he should have just sent it to Gary personally.

  491. n1tro

    I think the correction in Canada will be more than 20%. Like come on, a dinky 2100sq ft house and its 9′ ceiling isn’t worth $380,000!

  492. Gary

    Speaking of burritos I think I’m going to lose one to Doc. It doesn’t appear that we are going to test the panic low like I thought we would. That would mean the March 16th bottom was one of the longest daily cycles I’ve ever seen. 82 days if I remember right.

    The wonders of money printing never cease to amaze.