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981 thoughts on “COMMENT CLEANER & 6 MONTH OFFER”

  2. Haggerty

    Good Morning All,

    Bob, I think you were saying that you were going to short AGQ when you think we are starting the D wave by buying puts. I think Wes on the blog was saying that he bought calls for the last part of the C wave on AGQ and offered close to half of the spread and it was taken after a few minutes of sitting there. I would really like to know what you are doing if thats ok when the time comes. I’d like to play the D wave too. I will use a small part of my portfolio, but even that can make a big difference for a guy like me.

    TIA

  6. DG

    Gary: It’s really something to be so highly skilled in two different areas (three if you count—I think it was judo, right?) It just shows what focus, determination, and persistence (and talent) can do! Good luck!

  11. Haggerty

    Yea I guess you don’t want to draw too much attention this way the average person can’t tell that your slowly stealing whatever they have left!

  18. New York

    I’m using my highly complex TA analysis system to evaluate the volume trends on this blog. Judging by the huge 1000+ comment posts we’ve had recently I feel a breakout is imminent.

    Yee haaaaw. Good luck riding this bull all!

  28. jeff

    We need to recruit a horse race announcer for the blog

    “and the dollar stumbs and hits the ground/gold takes the lead/ silver got out of the gate early
    No wait the dollar is back up but limping

  30. Poly

    Yes, looking promising, but still need a clear and strong breakout of the highs, otherwise it’s still wiggles within the range.

    A break up to $1,450, maybe by tomorrow, would set the scene for panic buying and strong 2nd half cycle, IMO.

  32. pimaCanyon

    mlmt,

    What? A week or so ago, you said you would be getting ON the bus. Now you’ve decided to short it instead?

    What changed?

    What analysis is telling you that odds are gold will go lower here?

    FWIW: Cycle analysis would say it’s extremely unlikely that gold will go below the January low of 1311 (june futures) for the rest of this bull market. So 1150 target is either highly improbable or the gold bull is finished.

  37. jeff

    Pima
    I read a article about naddler from kitco
    Every end of year call he has made over the last 10 years has been 50% off.
    This year he called 1150 so we should see 2300

    They said this was true within $30

  38. fat boy

    Mlmt
    I don,t want your trade to work but that does not mean it won,t
    In fact the volatility we have seen might put you on the right side of my gut feelings on the trade
    But what are you using to call it?

  49. Shalom Bernanke

    I’ll begin to add margin at the 564-5 on the HUI, if it pulls back there today or tomorrow. Since I’m going to step away again today, I’ll just enter conditional orders and free up my time.

    Good luck!

  52. jeff

    Pima
    That was naddlers number
    For being the head of kitco he is always so far off base

    I think he likes keeping people chaseing

  53. Hot Rod

    Guys,

    I will have to be honest that calling Basil a troll is a little extreme, actually a lot extreme.

    Go to the Yahoo message boards, Zero Hedge and you’ll immediately see trolls, pumpers, spammers, whatever you want to call them. It’s ridiculous.

    Hey, if Basil is as bad as it gets on Gary’s blog we’re very lucky.

  54. ALEX

    Hey Guys,

    F.W.I.W.

    I was in Logan Airport this wkend and thought I saw signs of a Gold top, (but I know we’re not at a top)…

    It was a GIANT wall size sign that said…”Is there a better way to invest in Gold”…and it showed a huge Gold bar and the ticker IAU inscribed on it.

    I have never heard of IAU on this blog, but I looked at the chart…its a slow follower of gold. Not interested,just thought I’d mention that.

    Out for the morning, MLMT…Crazy man! I’m buying more exk yesterday, youre shorting SLW today. WOW!

    As usual, Time Will Tell 🙂

  56. DG

    For anyone who followed me shorting PHM: I am hoping to hold this one for a kill. It will probably go broke if we get another bout of weakness in the economy. Will post if/when I cover.

  59. Bob loves Hawaii

    Haggerty and ChrisB, when Gary gives us the high sign, and I am taking a defined dollar trade on AGQ puts 60-90 days out at a 25% delta price.

    Then just sit and watch the power of compounding at work in your favor.

    I will scale in to this trade over a week.

    If Gary is right and AGQ pushes to $300-$400 a 20% correction in silver is a $120 to $140 dollar move. Just look at how much AGQ corrected during the intermediate correction, nearly $40.

    Once AGQ starts to fall, you will have decay and volatility as your friend.

  62. Yash

    AGQ partnership made loss in Jan 2011 and profit in Feb 2011. Roughly 25 dollar per share loss in Jan 2011 and 50 dollars per share profit in Feb 2011. Means if you hold both months then 25 dollars per share profit is added as gain (in addtion to your trading gain) on K-1 form. This is simple calculation. Actual calculation may be little more complex but may not far off in numbers.

  63. Avann

    MLMT, wouldn’t you think the safer bet would be long with a stop at 1410 or 1382 and then perhaps short … I dunno … it just seems to me like you’re consistently opposed to all on this site. It’s not like we’re losing money over here … good luck to you.
    One of these days you’ll come over to the light side …

  64. DG

    Eamonn: It has been on my watch list as a fundamentally broken company. To enter a short I need the item to “do something bearish” to give me a precise entry point. PHM got to an extreme on the upside where I felt it could not go any higher (there’s a limit to how far a rubber band can stretch), so I did it. I was in the hole a few cents for a few hours. Most of my work revolves around entry points. I can’t get more precise than that, sorry.

  66. Frank

    IAU is iShare’s version of GLD and it has been much less successful being only one tenth the size. So they are doing some advertising to grow market share. I am not sure if IAU’s fees are lower than GLD’s.

    “Slow follower”??? It should follow gold 1:1 minus some very small fees.

    GLD advertises in the FT and on Bloomberg.

  68. Gary

    If ones strategy consistently fails it would make sense to change something.

    Perhaps MLMT would do well do go over his journal and compare the winning percentage to the losing percentage with this topping picking strategy.

    If the losers are more numerous than the winners and the losses larger than the profits that should tell you the strategy has a negative expectancy.

    Anything with a negative expectancy should be abandoned.

  70. William

    Eamonn: I bought puts earlier in the day before DG announced his trade. Wish I had the forsight to jump on it the day before when DG did, however, I made my trade based on PHM moving back up over the 50 DMA and then breaking back down below the 50 DMA, also all momentum indicators turned negative with stochastics being in overbought territory

  71. PST

    DG,
    I used to cover the homebuilding names in my last job including PHM, and I also worked for Hovnanian, which is one of the large builders out of NJ. Anyways, I haven’t looked at or spread the company in over two years, but at they time, they definately were not a bankruptcy candidate (they still may be a good short, though). The combined company of PHM and the old Centex had ample liquidity and were able to push out all of their debt maturities until something like 2016. If SHTF, it’s tough to tell what happens to all these guys, but back in 2008, banks were willing to work with the large builders to help them rollover their debt to late maturity dates. Also, the government effectively provided all the builders a backdoor bailout by allowing them to extend the use of their tax loss carry forwards for up to five years rather than 3. This basically let them apply their losses and apply it to their profitable years. In essense they didn’t have to pay any taxes and received large refunds for prior years.
    Anyways, I can’t debate whether they are a good short or not right now, but I don’t think they would be a bankruptcy candidate. If you’re looking for some of those check out Beazer, Hovnanian and Standard Pacific or others will low Price/Book ratios. Again, my disclaimer though is I haven’t looked at these guys in years, so I would have to go back and look to see how their capital structures have changed over that time.
    Hope that helps. Good luck with the short.

  72. Yash

    http://www.proshares.com/funds/agq.html

    all monthly statements. you can find for all commodity etf by clicking that etf on their website. Then in monthly statement you get to see net gain or loss. you can find outstanding shares by dividing shareholder equity divided by nav. again note all rough calculations. in annual report they show accurate figures with net gain/loss per share figure too. last annual report on website is 2009 and net gain was 21 dollars per share for entire year of 2009. I don’t know about entire year 2010. also there is rule of ownership. if you buy in middle of month then you own on prorate basis for remaining days of month but if you see mid month then you are deemed owner for full month. so even if you see 1st of month you will get entire month’s gain/loss to you etc. I can see someone paying much larger tax if timing is bad. and reverse someone may benifit if timing is good. my experince reading these statements seems if we agq tops early month and we sell at top and then it contines down that month then partnership will show loss for month which may be good for our K-1. I am also learning so please do your due dilligance.

  74. Eamonn

    DG: Very interesting. I would’nt be at the level yet where I could research and find and make the decision that a company was broken. Maybe over the years I shall pick up the knowledge to know how to go about doing it.
    Good luck with it. It will be interesting to watch PulteGroup as time unfolds

  75. Natanarchist

    Gary;

    Good luck in Savannah. Shoot this is the first year in 15 that I will no be in hilton Head..only about 40 minutes to Savannah from there. maybe we will pass each other at atlanta airport today.Hopefully you can get a chance to go to Tybee for a dip in the ocean…after you win of course.

  77. DG

    Thanks PST. Kind of you to post. I got some current financial analysis from Stansberry (a newsletter writer) who is much smarter than I am about financial reports and such. He felt their balance sheet has eroded very substantially the last two years an d that things are getting worse there. If I get a good entry point (as i appear to have done over 7.60) I am content to just hold it and see what happens. If they go to $2 and don;t go broke I’ll still be quite happy! Thanks again for posting.

  79. pimaCanyon

    IAU has avg daily volume of over 5 million shares.

    GLD has avg volume of 14 million shares

    Share price on IAU is 1/10th of GLD

    Both track gold almost 1 to 1

    right now GLD is up 1 percent, IAU up 1.01 percent

  80. DG

    Yash. Thanks! I was wanting to figure this out and had not yet gotten to it. I saved your post and will study it later. I hate getting some huge nasty surprise on tax day, but it seem that it will not be too bad. Your approach makes sense to me. I believe they also post the actually final data once a quarter, so by late April Q1 may be up (at least that’s what they told me when i called them but the person I spoke to wasn’t sure.)

  81. MrMiyagi

    Silver downturn yet again same time as yesterday’s chart.
    This never ceases to amaze me and I wonder why it is that there is so much similarity in move directions on the charts.

  83. PST

    My pleasure DG. Your comments have helped me out a ton, so I thought that I’d try to return the favor. Stansberry is a smart cat, so I’m can’t dispute what he says, especially since I haven’t looked at them in so long.
    One plus that you have going for you, is if housing prices keep deteriorating, these guys will have to mark down their inventory to market. This is why you’ll see them discontinue selling in some communities so that they don’t have to have price discovery for certain homes (similar to banks not writing down REO inventory). If this happens again like in 2007/2008, they will all likely have to take big hits to their book value, which will not be a positive for their stocks.
    Again, good luck.

  85. Yash

    DG – I haven’t see quater end actual reports so that person may be wrong. But monthly statements give good rough idea. End of year annual report is just addtion of all monthly statements gain/loss. Hard part is to calculate your ownership days if you trade these etfs often. But may be using excel formula you can do it. I am not very big in this. I am bigger in miners than this. Only after I see this year tax impact I will decide for next C wave.

  88. Poly

    It’s a lot to do with algorithm trading too.
    When it goes up goes up $0.40 on the one minute chart, nobody seems to complain.

  89. Jonas Haraldson

    I get this feeling that those who wish to curb the rise of the PM prices just flaunt their untouchability by executing their bear raids with blatant obviousness. What normal seller for profit would time his watch to the exact same time?

  90. DG

    Yash: You are right. She said the post the monthly once a quarter and two weeks ago nothing was there so I assumed that was right. Now I see Jan and Feb there. Thanks.

  93. PST

    In my short time trading AGQ and silver, I noticed that all of my limit orders got hit at around 11:00-11:30 and 1:00-1:30. I think that the price gets hit at around 1:00-ish so that they can paint the tape and get a lower closing price at the Comex (1:30 close). Someone on this board, noted that the 11:00 raid is probably the same thing happening at the close of the European exchanges. It doesn’t happen everyday, but it happens enough that I think that there may be something to this theory.
    Any thoughts?

  94. David

    Nike,

    Silver is a vey thin market. Any big institution selling a block of SLV would knock it down. If anything, the systematic selling at the same time of day would be typical of a big holder trying to unload its position in blocks.

  100. PST

    Pressure,
    I haven’t signed up because, while I think he’s a sharp guy, his views are a little extreme. I prefer someone like Gary who takes a more objective approach rather than a “sky is falling” mindset.

  101. PST

    Pressure,
    Stansberry was also fined by the SEC for securities fraud for telling people that he had insider info to get the price of one of his holdings up. He still can be a great analyst though, but I thought I decided to steer clear of this one.

  102. Frank

    I haven’t touched homebuilders for more than 2 years. I think most of the meat is off the bone and that unfortunate tax refund scheme, which was a massive bailout and loaded up cash on their balance sheets. The game is rigged so I won’t touch them. The only big one (well, not really) to fail back in 2007-8 was WCI. I missed that one but was fortunate with GGP in late 2008. I miss those days…. especially my favorite SoCal banks, Downey and Fed First.

  103. DG

    Pressure: He has a lot of newsletters. The one I get is cheap: PS Investment Advisory (PSIA). I have gotten some good ideas from it. And yeah he’s extreme and you have to wade through his rhetoric to find the gems, but he is a damn good analyst, IMO. I have already made enough in PHM the past two days to pay for a lifetime of subscriptions.

  110. pimaCanyon

    HUI is right up against the downsloping TL. Hasn’t penetrated it yet.

    I’m drawing the TL off the 598 high made on 12/7 and the 3/7 high. This TL WAS penetrated on 3/24, but HUI pulled back during the day and closed well below the TL.

    Today is the second touch, let’s see where it ends up.

  111. RickH

    Hi All,

    Long time listener, first time caller.

    SLV been leading GLD for a while, anyone considering GLD may outperform in the near future?

    Thanks, Rick

  112. pimaCanyon

    Hi Rick,

    Welcome.

    I don’t know how you could determine that other than using price targets. And price targets are pretty much a WAG anyway.

    If we expect gold to hit 1600 and silver to hit 50, silver will continue to outperform. But what if silver only gets to 45? And gold hits 1700?

    Anyone have analysis that can support a call for a target price in gold and silver?

  116. Frank

    I used to short heavily in 2007-8. Home builders, banks, etc. That was my investment thesis in that time period. I switched to mainly going long PMs in October/ November 2008. I had some small exposure to PMs but not enough commitment and often found myself chasing. Bought GLD for my IRA in 2004-5 or whenever the ETF was launched.

    Oct-Nov 2008 was an opportunity of a lifetime. Bought Jan 2009 call options in stuff like SLW and let much of it exercise.

  121. PressurePointAdmin

    DG/PST thanks

    Im always sceptical about these types of things the variance in costs between reports is large.

    What im also intrigued about is as soon as individuals/companies get “blacklisted” it makes me think they are doing something that is worth looking at.

  123. David

    Rick,

    Gold outperforms in the beginning of the ABC cycle. Silver outperforms at the end. So silver should continue to outperform until the end of the D-wave, then underperform for the next year after that.

  125. Jayhawk

    Guys, come on now…Despite Gary trashing “conspiracies” when the POS or POG gets slammed down massively within minutes, it’s quite obvious that some large entity (s) are dumping contracts to force down price.

    Just look at the NY open this week…Price climbing nicely and then BAM! out of nowhere all a bunch of sellers dump massive amts of contracts for no reason?

  127. Romeo Bravo

    Jay, I think someone on this board mentioned a few days ago that one possible reason for the POS and POG dump, especially coming towards end of the month is some funds that want to profit from the price rise of metals but don’t necessarily want to have it on their books to show their clients/investors at the end of the month the size of their involvement.

    One theory anyway.

  128. pimaCanyon

    whitebear,

    the difference is that Gary, DG, P.K. and I are drawing the TL such that it touches the high of the day on 3/7. Your TL goes right thru the wick of the 3/7 candle. So yeah, your TL has a different slope.

  129. DG

    Jayhawk: What makes you say the selling is “for no reason”? Obviously someone(s) are selling, but do we have any evidence that it’s “in order to drive prices down?” That implies intent and I can’t see how we can determine the seller’s intent. We can say things like “Why else would they…” but this is just guesswork, no? I’d love to see real evidence someday but have never seen any in all the reading I have done and no one on the inside has ever ratted.

  130. Jayhawk

    Perhaps Romeo…algos too makes some sense.

    I also find it fascinating that these margin hikes seem to come out of nowhere and just at the times when silver is making a strong move.

    FYI, that weekly swing high on gold is close to being invalidated if gold can get above 1448 this week. ( I think that was the number Gary pointed out.)

    Anyone know the dollar number we need to get under to make that weekly swing low on the USD become void?

  131. Gary

    So does that mean the sudden drop in the stock index this afternoon was manipulation?

    The big gap open must have been manipulation by the good guys I guess 🙂

    I guarantee that during the D-wave anyone who is short silver won”t be talking manipulation if silver goes down.

  132. PressurePointAdmin

    All of the banks i have worked for hedge their positions, all of teh producers (oil/gas) i have worked for hedge their positions, it does beg the question who is taking the outright positions. Hedge funds in Hong Kong, or small insider groups living in darkened bunkers in the hills of Vermont

    Believe me im not a conspiracy theorist, but im not naive either!

  135. RickH

    Thanks pC and David.

    pC, I just glance at the daily % gains for each. Sorry if that’s a bit crude, but today is the first time in a while that GLD is a bit ahead. As for price targets, for me it will be watching for an exhaustion candle with massive volume at a point when everyone is gaga over PM’s and the gold coin vending machines hit the kwikie-marts (or some such ludicrous mainstream warning).

    David, That is a reasonable rule, lets see if it plays out. I hope it does as I have been focused on SLV and not GLD, until today, starting to trade into and maybe establish a DGP position.

    Thanks again for the input.

  136. Robert

    I find it just amazing that gold and silver are sold off at exactly the same time almost 90% of the time.Just looks at the charts and you see the same thing everyday almost.For everybody scoring at home yesterdays high tick in April gold was $1430.30. Yes, that was a gain of EXACTLY 1.00%. How unusual- NOT. In fact out of the first 22 trading days in March a whopping TEN featured rallies that were stopped near 1%. There can be no clearer evidence of manipulation than the repeated, practically ritualistic daily capping of Comex paper gold. No free market can have an 83% probability of morning selloffs. All markets are manipulated look at QE1 and 2 ,why do you think the general markets are up-because the Fed keeps throwing money at them –that is a form of manipulation by the way.

  138. David

    Rick,

    A breakout for gold is more important than what happens in silver right now. If gold breaks out, silver will follow. So be happy, not worried.

  139. Hot Rod

    My thesis is this for the sudden spikes down….

    “They” accumulate “physical” contracts and the price drifts up.

    They then put buy limit orders in for derivative products tied to the physical price (mining shares – SLW, CDE, AG, etc., ETF’s – SLV, AGQ, options, options on futures) at a lower level that will get tagged by the declines. My guess is they also watch the Level 2 quotes to know where the stops and triggers are.

    They then put in the large sell orders to drive the physical price down, which will activate the buy orders of the derivative products.

    Net-net they likely broke even, lost a tad or maybe even gained a tad on the “pump and dump” or “dump and pump” action.

    When they buy up those contracts back (dump and pump action), it drives up the value of the derivatives.

    Wash, rinse, repeat.

    Now…What if this is all done through HFT algos.

    They can program the logic based on times of day or open interest triggers to pull the trigger (also with a strength of size determination) for maximum gains.

    Because it is premeditated and they can trade faster, it is ready for the action and can arbitrage in microseconds.

    Just one humble man’s “plausible” theory from 2 years of “watching.”

  140. gold silver troll

    after all the troll talk yesterday…

    I am no troll…someone asked me this yesterday

    all you chartists,

    do the exhaustion candles on SLW and most other miners bother you guys?

    i am kindaa bugged by it

  141. Poly

    Jay,

    All of the tradable commodities get hit with margin hikes, frequently, as volatility and price increase. This is normal market response, especially in thinly traded markets.

    Most of the time when Silver margins are increased, if Zero-Hedge bothered to look and report, they would find many other commodities being hiked too!
    But nobody screams manipulation when Cocoa, Corn and Soybeans get hiked! Or when these get dumped like a bag of s#$^

  143. pimaCanyon

    goldsilvertroll,

    Well, I would rather see the miners close near the high of the day. Day’s not over, so we’ll have to wait and see where they end up.

    Meantime, pick a miner, I’m looking at SVM. Look at the rally from the January low to the early March high. There are several “exhaustion candles” during that run. Which, of course, did not turn out to be exhaustion candles at all, right?

    That said, I will feel better seeing gold, silver, and miners all break to new highs. Right now we are essentially in no man’s land, still in the trading range of the last 6 trading days.

  144. Wes

    Yash,

    The numbers you are quoting for AGQ are quite close to the actual returns on owning the stock.

    For example, if you owned AGQ for all of 2009, you would have made $24.65.

    If you owned it for all of Jan, you would have lost about $25, made $50 in Feb, etc.

    That can’t be by chance, IMHO.

  145. pimaCanyon

    But if you look at the daily chart of gold futures, we have a big green candle with price near the high of the day. That doesn’t looks so bad.

  146. DG

    Yep. I don’t like the candles, but they are not a definitive bearish tell. We have already dropped enough to honor them,, but I wish we’d tick over the day;’s high of the reversal day already!

  147. Yash

    Wes – you are right. I am just not sure how K-1 looks. I am preety sure this monthly statement gain/loss comes into K-1 but I don’t know what happens of actual trading profit. I have never seen K-1 as I owned agq first time in 2011. I agree that over full period of time like full month or full year this gain/loss stuff may not impact much but if buy/sell timing is wrong then its possible you may get gain in k-1 but actual trading loss and vice versa.
    Thats why I feel these are not frequent trading vechicals. But I may be wrong.

  148. Haggerty

    Thanks BOB

    Wes

    When you jumped in to AGQ calls you didn’t give what they were asking on the bid right you went a lot cheaper and they took it after a while right?

  149. Hot Rod

    Wes,

    YOu outline a good point.

    Isn’t the K-1 form for AGQ in place of the 1099?

    Meaning, you don’t have to report your sale price and capital gain based on cost basis, you just report the K-1 gain or loss.

    This would align with your outline that the share price gain is equal to the K-1 amount.

  150. Pseudopersona

    Maybe this is way too simplistic, but wouldn’t it be possible for a very big player to buy in at a price, wait for some good profits, sell big enough to run stops, buy same amount back in lower and do it all over again? If you can do this ad infinitum you could make a bazillion dollars buying and selling the same silver in the same trading range.

  156. Movax2

    There are a lot of retail investors buying dollars I think. I know of four people at my work that have invested significant amounts in $USD (I am Canadian) and I just started working there. They think USD/CAD at .98 was a good trade.. well they probably just went to a currency exchange and lost even more on the fees. But I think there are a lot of people that think they can pick up some USD for cheap and when the market overpowers them and they realize they have made a mistake there could be a wave of selling. And another wave as some hold out until there is too much pain.

  158. Hot Rod

    Poly,

    Sorry about that. 🙂

    It is a good question. My guess based on the info I read is that you will get K-1 forms even if you don’t sell. Because it is a limited partnership, as an owner you are responsible for your share of gains or losses.

    Now, with that I’m not sure how long you have to file and pay taxes, or credit.

  159. blammo

    I am also hearing of Canadian friends picking up USD, and last time I mentioned gold/silver at a friends dinner party all any one wanted to talk about was real estate… FWIW.

  161. LowTax

    Wes, thanks for checking on the 1995 government shut-down. Good to know it didn’t really phase gold. We have so much money sloshing around right now anyway…

    TZ – hillarious about the lobster!

  162. Ryan

    What’s going on with SLW? Should be up with the rest but is pretty much flat. Maybe just taking a rest from a decent day yesterday?

  163. MrMiyagi

    Ryan,
    I was wondering the same thing. It looks like it is filling this morning’s gap, also I have noticed that most times it finishes strong.

  167. Romeo Bravo

    Just an FYI to those who have April dated options that are out of the money.

    The curve of theta loss (meaning the loss of option value due to time value) really picks up into next week as we will be just two weeks from Options Expiration.

    At this point they should probably be treated as throw away money/lottery play or you could always roll them to May or (even June) and pay a bit more for the same strike or possibly roll them to a higher strike for no cash outlay or possibly even a credit.

    Just a heads up for option newbies.

  169. LowTax

    Whitebear, DG, etc.

    I am a total notice when it comes to charting but it seems to me that Whitebears approach to trendlines is more logical. The HUI peak on 12/7 defines the first point. The second point is defined by the intra-day high on 3/2. The intraday high on 3/4 validates this trendline. 3/7 was an attempt at a break-out which failed. 3/23 validates the same trendline. 3/24 and 3/25 are failed breakouts. Finally, today’s high is a break-out IF it holds into the close.

    As a novice, I ask: should trendlines be re-drawn if there is a third high that is higher than the second high which initially formed the trendline (3/7 in our case)? OR does the original trendline remain firm and subsequent points should be judged as failed or successful based on that original trendline? Thanks.

  170. Eamonn

    From what I’ve have been reading and from my intelligence gathering, stocks & PM will post new bull market highs in the next 2 months, but then a major correction.
    Does anyone agree or disagree?

  173. jeff

    Haggerty
    We got the close above the 1338. So I am holding my may 1440 calls. As per my highly techy broker
    For whatever that’s worth

  175. DG

    LowTax: Unfortunately this is not an exact science. I am less comfortable with two failed breakout attempts which WB’s interpretation requires. I really won;t even like one and usually try to draw the line so that it is not even violated intraday. Plus we are struggling here and had the trendline been breached I’d have expected a woosh up. As a separate point i won;t be really comfortable until the reversal high at about 582 is taken out as well. At least this is how it looks to me.

  178. RickH

    David,
    Did I say I was worried? 🙂 No worries here, just always trying to maximize my trades and refine my edge(s).
    Rick

  179. jeff

    Eamonn
    I’m on the iPhone it’s hard to type
    When the dollar hits it’s low it will rally up hard and fast

    Crushing pm and stocks for a time
    Then after that we buy again

  180. Eamonn

    jeff: I’ve been reading lots and lots of sources, trying to get thought/opinions from smart people such as S&P’s subscription service, etc

  181. n1tro

    Hot Rod,

    Not too far fetched. Similar thing happened to me back in the day when I was prop trading sirius satellite. The day Howard Stern came on board the stock price was going up as expected. Then within 30 secs the floor of several level 2s fell out and the stock dipped $0.30 to only bounce back up $0.45 within the minute. Mind you I alone was playing with about 100K shares alone and in the room I was trading with would of had more than 1 millions shares in play but someone had deeper pockets to drive it down for probably a buddy of his and knock us all out.

  182. DG

    Eamonn: My experience has been that reading a lot is educational for seeing how people look at things, but the vast majority of writers have nothing of use to say. It takes a long time to get a sense for who really knows something and who thinks he does but doesn’t. Always ask/wonder/research what the writer’s track record is. People can write things that are very persuasive and be totally out to lunch. This is not an easy game and really takes time. Or find someone good (like Gary) and do what he says—but never stop learning.

  185. blammo

    Romeo (if you were talking to me), my front month calls are ITM (for me), I’m just going to hold them or get stopped out.

  189. Edwin

    your miners are going to do alright only if the main stock market is moving in the upward direction. i’m out of miner because you factor the market’s sentiments, gold sentiment, company risk, company valuation, energy costs..

    the less risky trade is an unlevered play on the physical metal itself. you get enough leverage with silver over gold. but for the risky speculator day trader go into a levered derivative like AGQ, HZU, UGL

    gold is moving along nicely, i hope it doesn’t get attacked tomorrow for NFP but so far so good. saw some of the guys take some profits this afternoon.

    market is pretty neutral today.. like it like this.

  190. DG

    MLMT usually doesn’t give reasons. He has made some very good calls and some way off the mark ones. Once in a while he’ll give a reason (they usually don’t look like especially good reasons to me—but hey, he does have some nice calls from time to time–too good to be just luck, IMO)

  191. ALEX

    Sold AG, EXK, and CDE

    Not happy with volumes right now, daily charts and intra day.

    will buy back when I am more sure of buying direction

  193. DG

    Alex: Thanks for posting. I was wondering about that. I just sold my EXK as well. Volume is drying up as it drifts higher and approaches the previous peak.

  194. Edwin

    Robert – the markets are rigged yeah, you’re playing a dirty game.

    But it’s never been a free market to begin with.

    it’s the ones in the know who take from the common folk..

    gold is no different from any other market.

  195. LowTax

    We’re unlikely to see any big moves before the jobs number tomorrow… If it’s anything like ADP’s number, things will look weak and probably signal that more fiat is on the way…

  198. ALEX

    DG

    Thats what I was looking at.

    With CDE its the 3rd time at this high point, lacks volume and the MACD is low to sideways. I just will hold my Good gains and if it blasts off…Back in…if it falls, I will look to re enter.

    Heck, CDE could drop tomorrow and the whole thing rockets Monday, because they do look to be forming flags on a 3 month chart.

  200. ALEX

    I am not really recommending following me.

    AG has been my BEST gainer, its a double since the Jan low. I just have a lot of shares and when it went from $19 to $14 early in March, I had wished I saved that cash 🙂

    Today ,intraday ( a 1 day chart, 5 minute), it hit around $21.30 this morning on great volume, pulled back and retested on 1/5th the volume and the MACD was dead and turning down, so I bailed. There are gaps below…I hope to re-enter.

  201. pimaCanyon

    Jeff,

    I don’t know much about options on futures, so here are few questions:

    What did you pay for the 1440 calls? What’s their price today?
    Each option gives you the right to buy ONE futures contract at the strike price, right?

    Right now gold futures are only $3 and change away from your strike. Gold could easily be at 1450 by the end of April when your calls expire. Gold at 1450 would make your calls worth $1000, right? ($10 above strike X 100 ounces of gold per contract)

  202. mylifemytrade

    Any thoughts on why SLW is down when SLV is not. When I started “put”ting SLW this morning, I certainly didnt expect this.

    Taking 20% off here at 43.3x to create room in case Benny decides to do more fuckery

  203. mylifemytrade

    @AngryHippie I posted yesterday that I was looking to board the GC bus at 1435+ and SLV bus 37+ and mentioned SLW too. After that today it was just a matter of getting a good entry using 5min chart

  205. Edwin

    by the way, gold is being held down artificially now.

    they ie. the big money. only want it to appreciate by a dollar a day. sounds like PC ad.
    you can have this PC for $1 a day. 🙂

    so an up day like 14+ dollars, that’s just ridiculous. sell down is immiment.

    long term fine, you can’t beat old turkey unlevered. the volatility bc this trade is so popular now will make you go nuts.

  206. ALEX

    DG

    I only sold 1/2 my EXK, but for the same reason you mentioned. I will jump back in if Silver breaks out (or miners do with good volume).

    I havent given upon the Bull by any means, just taking profits hoping to re-enter lower.
    If silver is up a buck tomorrow and Gold breaks the highs…my getting cute here will not pay off-but it did on a few last time we were at these levels. 🙂

  208. coolkevs

    good luck gary!
    Low-volume love-fest continues in most markets. Kevin Depew on Minyanville highlighted that we have recorded Demark Daily Sell Setups on the SPX and the German DAX today. So, Friday through next Wednesday, we could see some downside pressure in stocks. Silver will record a WEEKLY TD Sequential 13 Sell signal this week, good for 12 weeks, so look for downside pressure in the metal of choice through June.

  209. ALEX

    SOPHIA

    My wife JUST said the same thing!! haha

    I told her I take breaks from work when I’m working, and breaks from the sun when on Vacation 😉

  210. ALEX

    I’m waiting for JAYHAWK to point out that VERY nice & maybe quite valid cup/handle on EXK on a 10 day chart!

    CRAP! lol

  211. Wes

    Haggerty,

    I bought some AGQ Apr 200 calls when AGQ was trading around 190ish (as best I recall).

    The bid/ask was something like $13.20-$15.80. I bid $14.50.

    The bid stayed unfilled for about 30 seconds. Then I went on to some other orders. When I checked back in about 5 minutes, the order was filled at $14.50..

    The price of AGQ was nearly unchanged (+or- $1) during the entire time, as I recall.

    Hope this helps.

  213. DG

    Alex (say “Hi to her for me)…

    I am planning to do the same thing when $HUI breaks out, but I don’t know how much juniors I’ll buy and how much more AGQ. Waiting…and waiting…and waiting

  214. DG

    Nice chart, Jayhawk. The petering out volume as we approach the previous high bugs me. I don;t mind buying it back higher if it gets through with some oomph.

  215. Romeo Bravo

    Blammo, certainly not singling you out on options eduction. I just saw your comment and thought some others might be in similar situation and I learned the hard ways many years ago about holding to close to OpEx. Sounds you have things covered!

  218. ALEX

    JAYHAWK!!

    How did I know 🙂 thanks, the chart is a beaut! I sold portions on the last beat down when the highs got retested on lighter volume & gaps below..(holding mucho core) and got back in, so I have more profit to play with),but yes…Its getting very late in the game to get cute.

    DG

    She didnt say “hello”, she said to say goodbye (smiling), its 3.00 in the Caribbean & that means a walk on the beach to happy hour at 4 p.m..

    Paige me if this thing rips out at 3:45!!

  220. Shalom Bernanke

    Just checking in before the close, and I see silver miners off the highs. I don’t think the lower volume is significant in any way, and am not selling anything down here.

    Staying long with everything for now, and my plan is to add (on margin) if the HUI pulls back to around 565 or so.

  225. DG

    Jonas: Now that you mention it I do remember reading that. I guess this is one of those things where the people convinced there’s a conspiracy are unlikely to persuade the doubters. It’s too easy for me to imagine that this guy is trying to sell a book or something (now or later). I’m looking for something like a damning email or work paper or something. The guy could after all just be a liar. People have done much stranger things for notoriety—though I must admit to not having researched this very hard. The whole thing just doesn’t make sense to me as there is no reason to manipulate (unless you like losing money in a bull market) Silver is at highs anyway so what are they accomplishing?

  227. Jonas Haraldson

    Well, that’s Gary’s argument: silver is going up so ergo there’s no manipulation. I’m very long so obviously I believe in the bull, but I also like to understand the market dynamics, in which I include various types of efforts to move the price in any direction.

    Earlier today I posted a link that shows pure statistics, which shows how the intraday price movements have systematically been influenced in such a way as to minimize the AM and more so the PM price fix in London. Check it out and tell me how that could possibly be interpreted as anything else than a desire to keep the prices down.

    http://bit.ly/bkFieB

    It can definitely be argued that barring those daily influences over the years, the price would definitely be higher today.

    I’m emphatically NOT a tinfoil hat kind of guy, just a very analytical person who sees patterns that are very hard to explain in any other way than manipulation.

  228. pimaCanyon

    Jeff,

    Yeah, that’s a lot of ground to make up between now and end of month. It’s certainly possible though. Gold would need to hit 1470 just for you to break even. It could. Could even go higher. But if it just ticks a little higher day by day, you could lose a big chunk of it, so you’re probably smart to try to dump them at 2400. If gold moves up tomorrow a few dollars from here, they could hit 2400.

    For what you paid for those calls, you could buy one or two deep ITM GLD calls. I’ve done well so far on those. But I got tricky a couple weeks ago and bought just a few just out of the money May call (they expire mid-May) and I’m in the hole on those, but after today only a little.

    I think I will mostly stick to shares of GLD and SLV from now on and only use deep in the money calls on GLD when I want the added leverage. And then only early in daily or intermediate cycle.

    Good luck!

  229. DG

    Patterns don’t mean manipulation, though. For all we know there could be a government that uses an algo that sells at that time. Maybe manipulation needs to be defined. Sellers come in and that influences prices of course, but manipulation?

  230. pimaCanyon

    SB,

    You mentioned once that you use Average True Range (ATR) to set your stops. How do you do this?

    Weekly or Daily ATR?
    Do you put your stop one ATR below the low of the previous week (or day) and then move it up (or down if prior week had lower low) each week?

  231. pimaCanyon

    I believe patterns existed long before most traders knew about them (before TA became widely known), like back in the 20’s and 30’s. EW Theory says the patterns exists because of group psychology and emotions unfolding in repeatable patterns.

  233. Shalom Bernanke

    PC,

    I just use ATR as a guideline when getting into positions. I don’t trail the stop as prices move up (moving the stop higher) once I get some cushion.

    Which ATR I use depends on the expected hold time. For the metals, I used the weekly ATR as I expected to be in for several weeks +. If it were a trade I expected to exit bin several days, I’d use the daily ATR.

    The reason I don’t use trailing stops is that exits are typically into moves my direction. The first stop, when placed, already defines my maximum risk.

  235. jeff

    Pima
    I got myself in this mess because I was way over leveraged
    I had huge proffits. 120% and a late start
    I thought I was just holding my place in line

  236. Jonas Haraldson

    Everyone can chose what they believe in of course. As for me, when I see distinct patterns that appear without any other plausible explanation I get suspicious.

    Markets are so thoroughly analyzed that any kind of predictable pattern always comes with an analyisis. In the case of e.g. first day of the month uptrends it’s mutual funds buying. In the case of the relentlessly rising stock market it’s Bernanke money printing, we can all agree to that – especially since ha has even admitted that he wants to create a wealth effect.

    So if both the general stock market and the bond prices are subject to government interference, then why not precious metals? (And please don’t say they lack meaning. Why is Russia, China and Iran hoarding? Well, maybe to challenge the dollar? There’s no doubt that PMs are extremely political).

  239. gratitudo

    SLW get hammered at the close, while every other silver miner is in the green. Any explanation? Profit taking on the last day of the month / last day of the quarter? Or, does anyone else know anything?

  241. Ryan

    I bought some more SLW at the close. I don’t know why it sold off when silver was up but it was worth the gamble for me. I just hope the sell off in slw today is not a precursor.

  242. Jonas Haraldson

    @Gratuito:

    I checked Twitter and nobody seems to have any clear ideas of why SLW takes a beating. Someone was blaming end of quarter liquidation, but it seems strange that it would target only SLW. I think maybe insiders may know something about the company.

  244. Shalom Bernanke

    SLW is only down a little over 1%. I wouldn’t read too much into it, and with volume on par with the average daily, I doubt insiders are acting on something material.

    Could be, but I doubt it.

  247. gratitudo

    After looking at the chart on silver and SLW during the last 45 minutes of trading they appear to be very close. Probably nothing, but it did look strange to see SLW in the negative when almost every silver miner was positive.

  249. Shalom Bernanke

    I do risk losing most of my gains, just like the rest of us. 🙂

    But it’d have to be a huge gap down, and even stops won’t protect longs from that. They’ll just get the next price once the stop is triggered. I rarely sell into weakness, and only when stopped out, which is infrequent as I use wide stops.

    It was difficult to do early in my trading, but I realized we’re all at risk all the time, even those sitting in cash in the bank (devalued currency). I’d rather just be in things headed the right direction, little wiggles be damned.

  251. pimaCanyon

    Jonas,

    Makes sense to me. Patterns could exist on charts because of group psychology unfolding in repeatable patterns (I believe this is the thinking regarding cycle analysis) OR because of manipulation. I don’t think we can say that because a pattern is there, that definitely means manipulation. But I also can’t say that the PM markets are NOT manipulated. They probably are, as most (all?) markets are these days!

  253. MrMiyagi

    One of those days where I don’t know if I should be glad PMs are up, not glad because of the downturn at the end. Glad becasue the US$ was down or not glad because it’s at 76 at the end.

    Let’s see what’s on TV. Mythbusters maybe? Some dumb sitcom? Yes… that is what I will do yess…
    Tomorrow is another day (obviously).

  255. Intern

    Jonas, DG,

    What affect should manipulation/conspiracy have on my investing? Aren’t we just interested in the squiggly lines going up?

  256. Yash

    DGP is ETN and not ETF. double gold etf is UGL just like AGQ.
    ETF UGL and AGQ sends k-1 forms and DGP not.

    ETN has risk in terms of underline bank. I think its Deutsche Bank in case of DGP. if bank goes under then DGP is also gone under irespctive of price of gold.

    It is happened when lehaman went bust.

    Now it will happen again ever .. answer may be NO but just stating risk.

  257. Jonas Haraldson

    @Intern:

    For me it has meant peace of mind. I have a mental model of what’s going on, so sudden precipitous drops don’t scare me like they did when I had no idea why they happened. Thus I don’t sell when I see that particular pattern anymore (unless it’s to intraday trade them).

  258. Jonas Haraldson

    @Yash:

    Can’t say for Deutsche Bank, but I used to hold an ETN from Commerzbank before. I did some research and that bank has not recovered from the lows of 2008. Also it apparently carries serious levels of sovereign debt on its balance sheet. With Portugal and Ireland in a major crisis I just decided I didn’t want to take the risk anymore.

  259. Edwin

    algos or traders are getting really fast on the uptake on this..

    gold has already bled off it’s gains and looks ok.

    1433 or below is still a buy if you’re waiting to pick up imho.
    i would wait until until end of comex close tomorrow though to add.

    i’m riding this thing into the sunset…

  261. Brian

    It is a ONE DAY move in SLW people. Good god. No one was questioning why SLW was up bigger relative to other silvers yesterday. I love reading the comments here but the amount of panic over noise is excruciating sometimes.

  263. Jonas Haraldson

    So, is there some kind of list of who’s going to Switzerland this summer?

    I’ll be coming down only for a weekend (6/9-12), but looking forward to hopefully meet some of you.

  264. sophia

    I have to say that I really don’t like what is happening here: so many Fed Governors talking about rate hikes, they seem to have realised that they went too far with QE2 and that they are destabilising the whole world…
    Not good if rate hikes comes too soon….

  265. Edwin

    brian – it’s the day trading man.. it’s war. lol

    imho just buy unlevered longs in gold and silver metals, set stops to the daily’s and go on with life.

    it’s dinner time.. i decide with today’s loss/gain. is it’s going to be a mcdonalds happy meal or rib eye steak? :p

  269. David

    Sophia,

    I think they’re just jawboning the market.

    Something to keep in mind that Barry Ritholtz went into on his blog: QE3 is already in progress.

    The Japanese have just dumped as much liquidity, in dollar terms, into the market as all of QE2.

    So the truth is, that has to go into the Fed’s calculations. No matter how you slice it, there is even more liquidity in the global marketplace than anyone originally planned.

    Hence the monster rally in equities.

  270. David

    To be clear — when Ritholtz refers to QE3, he’s referring to the Japanese money dump, not to a renewed QE program here in the States.

  271. Ryan

    I’m sure a lot were not panicking about SLW, some of us even added. It was just strange that at one point it was down over 2% (SLW.to) while everything else was clearly in the green. Just seeing if there was any news out or something.

  276. Vonda

    I took some funds out of AGQ and switched into deep ITM June SLW calls–just before the dip. So that’s why I was particularly “curious.”

    Dumped the calls after a 40 cent decline.

    After hours I notice SLW up and AGQ down. So much for “getting cute.”

    Okay by you, Brian?

  277. PST

    (Part 1 of 2)
    Jonas / DG,
    Don’t mean to be jumping into your conversation, but I’ve seen this topic (PM manipulation) discussed so many times on this board and have refrained from making comments (been too lazy). Anyways, I figured I’d add my two cents now…better late than never.

    I’m not a tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy theorist and I honestly have no idea whether there is active PM suppression occurring in the market. I’m neither smart enough nor connected enough to know the answer to that. But what I can say is that there are two very good reasons why the fed / money center banks would want to manipulate prices. For all those that don’t like long theoretical pieces, skip the rest, but for the rest of you here goes.

    1. Trust in Fiat Money System – A system of fiat money can only exist if people have trust in the medium of exchange (the US dollar). If people lose faith in that medium, the system collapses. Now in the case of precious metals, prices could not be allowed to rise uncontrolled for all to see. Why’s that? Because people could then see how much their money is being devalued and how much of their purchasing power they are losing. If gold and silver were allowed to explode higher, most people would decide to not hold dollars and instead hold these metals instead. As it is, with the dramatic appreciation over the last few years, many people are coming to that conclusion anyways. This would impact the economy because people might then decide that they don’t want to hold, get paid, or accept the USD and would only accept one of the metals. How would we all feel if we walked into a store and the owner wouldn’t accept our paper currency? The fiat system would quickly lose the trust of the people and would fail. Our dollars used to say what they were backed by (oz of gold)….they now say backed by the faith and credit of the US Government. Without the faith part, the fiat game is over.

  278. PST

    (part 2 of 2)

    2. The perpetual creation of new money – To understand this point, you need to understand how money is created. Not to get too into the details, but money is not just printed by the mint, like we all imagine. Something like 90-95% of our “money” is in the form of electronic debits and credits, and only 5-10% exists physically. Most of the money is created by banks through credit extension in a fractional reserve banking system. Here’s how it works. You deposit $100 at your local bank in the form of deposits. The bank then makes loans with that and earns the difference or spread. Banks must reserve a specified percentage of what they make in loans. Currently the reserve ratio is 9:1, so a bank can make $900 in loans for every $100 in deposits. Poof…$900 is created out of thin air with a credit to your account. That money is then spent and a portion of it makes it back to the another bank in the form of deposits. This money is then leveraged 9:1, and so on. This process happens over and over. It is estimated that it takes about $1111 in deposits to create $100,000 in fiat currency in the system. Now imagine that you no longer want to keep your savings in dollars at the bank. You instead want to buy gold and silver because of the devaluation of the dollar, and those deposits never make it into the banking the system. Well, all that credit creation potential is lost. Lending activity and the velocity of money slows, and therefore, productive capital is removed from the system. Banks need deposits so that money creation continues. That is why the system is viewed as a giant ponzi scheme by many. I know what you’re question is…if you spend the money, then won’t someone else deposit it. Not really, because its not all “savings”. A portion of that money is used in the cost of production, some is lost in taxes, some is re-spent, some sits on corporate balance sheets, some gets repatriated to foreign corporations, etc. You get the idea.

    Again, I can’t tell you definitively that manipulation or price suppression is happening and that an evil cartel of the fed and banks are colluding to keep prices low. What I can say though is that I wouldn’t just dismiss it as improbable because there is no motive.

    Now my hand hurts from typing. Sorry for the long, boring post.

  281. Vonda

    Thanks PST, very interesting . . .

    And thanks for the posting Daniel. I also glanced through the “foreclosure.hamlet” article — boy it just keeps getting uglier and uglier. As one who is in the market to buy as soon as it looks as if there might be some stabilization, I’m getting increasingly dismayed that that day will ever arrive.

  282. Jonas Haraldson

    @PST:

    Thanks! I totally agree, just balked at typing all of that to explain my standpoint. 🙂

    Here’s the ultra short version for lazy readers:

    The mighty FED has a super power: it can create dollars from thin air and make people pay interest on it.

    If people start to prefer the original form of money, i.e. gold and silver, instead of dollars, the FED will lose their power and hence their very reason to be.

    How’s that for a motive to subdue the PMs’ rise in perceived value?

  284. Jonas Haraldson

    By the way, I wonder if we have anyone from Utah on the board. Would be interesting to know what the buzz is there on their recent steps to make PMs legal tender.

  285. Vonda

    David, you’d better withdraw your ! marks: you might upset Brian.

    The article does say–as Gary has maintained and many of you already have gathered–that inflation is on the boards regardless. I do wonder what that .75 will do to housing . . .

  286. Daniel

    David–
    I agree — 75 basis point hike within nine months will not end the PM Bull— But was enough to garner a little attention late in the day!

  288. David

    Daniel,

    I wasn’t mocking your post or anything. If anything, I was mocking my initial reaction. “75 basis points! They’ll never do it!”

    It’s as if zero percent, which was once an unthinkable number, has now become the norm. When I was a kid, interest rates were in the high teens. As in eighteen percent.

    Now .75 inspires terror.

    Suffice it to say, if they raise rates it will already be too late. They are way behind the curve.

  289. Aaron

    Anyone talking about rate hikes is kidding themselves, that would tank the market. And in a year so close to presidential elections, that unacceptable.
    The Fed wants to the dollar lower, yet they want a controlled devaluation, not a panic ridden one.
    As SB says, all is well 🙂

  290. David

    A .75 point hike isn’t going to tank anything.

    .75 is nothing. It’s practically symbolic. And, as has been shown time and again, rate hike cycles tend to correlate with rising markets.

  292. TZ(4404)

    The ‘quarter’ for gold and silver ended 1 hour ago today and we have finally moved past ALL manipulation and ‘adjustment’ points.

    -options
    -delivery
    -end of quarter (and month) window dressing, etc.

    The metals are now free to move as unemcumbered as possible and I still sense they want to go up.

  293. DanielB

    Short story. Rising wedges on GLD and SLV. Falling wedge on USD. Long GLD, SLW.TO, and SBR.TO. I’m hoping for a breakout, but suspicious of a reversal.

    The S&P 500 has formed a three week long rising wedge. The entire rally from Mar 17th looks weak. Gap ups followed by consolidation. I don’t like it. Selling has remained the dominant influence going into quarter end, rising wedge resistance and price resistance. Either we’re looking at a reversal down in the next week or we’re going to get a crazy breakout.

  294. David

    Aaron,

    I would argue that the “recovery” has already been choked by the price of oil. $108 oil is a lot worse for the global economy than .75 interest rates. The deed is done.

  295. Natanarchist

    @PST/Jonas;

    Totally agree with your posts. Since none of us are privy to Gold swap agreements by CB’s, to discount the managing of the price of Gold/Silver by said entities and their banking friends is naive.

    jonas, the traders name you were looking for is Andrew MacGuire. not only did he notify the CFTC a month in advance of the day Silver was going to be hit. he gave the warning again a couple days before and also in real time as it was happening. he then got hit by a car in London two days later and basically he hasn’t really been heard from since. message was received.

    Now to believe this was all normal or just a coincidence is to wear the biggest Dunce (tin Foil) hat available. The signals from your masters must be coming in loud and clear and distorting any cognitive thinking skills that remain after twelve years of dunce indoctrination in American public schools.

    politicians, bankers, Fed officials and their bosses only do one thing publicly…they LIE.

  296. n1tro

    @Jonas,

    Wasn’t there a silver trader that outed the manipulation when silver was breaking $15-$17/ounce?! Thats when I started to pay attention and go long. Can’t remember the guy’s name though.

  297. n1tro

    SB,

    Your physical holdings of silver…mostly 1 ozs or bigger bricks? Deciding whether I should pick up some 1kg coins at $37/ounce.

  298. PST

    Natanarchist,
    For the record, I actually do side with Gary in that I don’t think manipulation exists as depicted by the conspiracy theorist boards. I especially agree that JPM isn’t taking huge losses each quarter to suppress silver prices on behalf of the fed. However, I do think that the current bull market in PMs has certainly caught the feds/banks attention and it is something that they are (or at least should be) concerned about. We have unprecedented levels of sovereign debt and I think there is real concern about our status as the reserve currency going forward.

    I do, however, believe that prices are manipulated for trading strategies – painting the tape, running technical levels, avoiding having to close existing contracts and deliver physical, etc. This is the stuff that makes it into the media and is misinterpreted as collusion by the powers that be to keep the prices low.

  299. Hot Rod

    2 years ago when I was searching for leading indicators for PM price increase I was using the Fed M1 weekly report that comes out at 4:30pm:

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/

    I took it literally that money printing meant currency in circulation ( 🙂 ) and keyed off of the Table 3 and Table 5 “Currency” trend.

    Whether or not this is actually a meaningful indicator, I have witnessed over these 2 years the “currency” number just slowly and steadily increase – just unbelievable.

    Today’s reading of 943.5 billion dollars (Table 5 – non-seasonally adjusted) is a 7.8% increase over March 2010.

    It is a 21.5% increase from the Sept 2008 number, just prior to the financial crisis….

    At this point, I don’t really know if this matters, what the actual amount of paper dollars there are in circulation….

    Thoughts?

  305. n1tro

    SB,

    How easy is it to flip junk bags when the time comes? I stick mostly to philharmonics,maples,eagles, and koalas just because when silver is at $200/ounce 🙂 I don’t want to be sitting there while the buyer tests and doubts my stuff. 1kg kookaburras at $37 is below spot right now so I think I will buy some more.

  306. Wes

    @PST

    If things were working like you describe, there would never have been a QE2. The problem is that very few want to borrow and fewer meet the bank’s increased requirements.

    The Fed has provided enormous amounts of money to the banks. They are not nor have they ever been reserve constrained. There are simply few takers for the loans.

    So, it matters little whether additional deposits are provided to the banks via deposits. If they needed your money, they wouldn’t be paying .00001% to get it.

  308. New York

    PST,

    GREAT POST.. Thanks’ for that.

    I think the main reason you see Gary being dismissive of such talk is because all the conspiracy talk does little to make us money.

    In fact all it does is dilute our focus and distract us from making money in the markets.

    I’m with you, and like other on here, I fell DEEP into the rabbit hole and discovered a lot about our fractional reserve banking system, the Rothschilds and how fractional reserve and fiat money came to be.

    It’s a system created by people and as such can certainly be manipulated by them. But we must learn to interact with the matrix while not being part of it – to some degree.

    At the end of the day Gary’s ability to stay focused on the task at hand is what will allow us to confidently place our bets. The fact that we are all being robbed of our income and what they do let us keep is constantly being devalued since every fiat currency ultimately returns to it’s intrinsic value (zero) is just a fact of life that only some of us will ever even realize or have the capacity to understand.

  309. n1tro

    Holding till $200 😉 so it doesn’t matter when I buy. It’s only important that you keep buying. Also, when the D wave is in place, I may not have any spare cash because I jammed it all in my account to leverage hard.

  310. pimaCanyon

    David,

    How can we know where silver will be at the bottom of the D wave? Because the D wave will likely retrace 50 percent, maybe 62 percent of the entire C wave, we need to know the end of the C wave. Where the D wave bottoms will likely be very different if silver hits 45 at the top versus 65, no?

    I am not at all convinced we’re going to see a D wave anytime soon anyway. The reason is that this ending phase of the C wave is not yet playing out the way it should. According to Gary, D waves follow parabolic blowoff tops. If we don’t get the parabolic blowoff, we won’t see a D wave.

  311. ahain1223

    Update: GLD and the gold miner i follow ABX continues to exhibit strength which looks like it will continue to mid april. My Barclays investment is very marginally underwater by $0.10 with strong bullish tendencies into mid may, needs to start showing some strength soon or this could turn into a short candidate on relative weakness come mid may where i will flip the posi if need be

  313. David

    Pima,

    It’s a reversion to the mean.

    Silver is currently 50% above it’s 200dma. This is insanely stretched. It will eventually revert back to it’s 200dma or a little below that. It always has when it’s gotten this stretched.

    Right now the 200dma is at $25. I would expect that number to drift upwards in the coming weeks. So it should revert to $25-30 in a D-wave.

    As for the idea that there will be no D-wave, you’re lucky Gary isn’t here 😉 There is always a reversion to the mean event when things get this stretched, and they are usually abrupt.

    I would caution anyone against thinking that silver will never revert. This would be a very painful mistake to make.

  314. Shalom Bernanke

    I haven’t sold any metal in a long while, so can’t tell you how easy it will be to dump (especially in the future), but I’m quite sure there will be plenty of buyers when we want to sell and many ways to do it.

  315. PST

    Wes,
    I’ll get back to you in about an hour. I have two toddlers home from daycare and who want to play with Daddy

  316. ...at ease

    Whewww, what a busy day! I wasn’t comfortable with all the leverage I had with so many options in 4 accounts, so decided once in the green, I was going to sell and convert to metals except my deep in the money GLD options. Took all day selling high and buying low, but I did it and now feel much more comfortable when the time comes to hit the sell buttons. So now I can ride bull comfortably.

  318. Le Fou

    What occurs to me is that the area on the dollar chart between 75.63 and 74.23 is a kind of no man’s land. It should be the battle ground for the dollar. We’ve already dipped below 75.63 once and bounced back above it. If we drop below 74.23, that’s when panic sets in and pms go parabolic. Right now, everyone is on tenterhooks waiting to see how far the dollar will fall. MOST PEOPLE DON’T WANT TO GO THERE. It will not be very good for most people. We should not be surprise if there’s a big battle here in no man’s land, so it may take awhile. While we’re waiting the averages will have time to catch up to the huge move we’ve seen in the past 6 months. That’s my 2 cents. What do you think?

    Best,
    Le Fou

  319. jeff

    at ease
    i got my platform up and was going to trade tonight. there is no volume. my platform only shows who is trading on this platform and there looks like maybe 100 trades so far. mabye while gary is gone we can get smt and form our own takedown tonight and by back cheaper =) ready set sell lol

  321. Steven

    I was speaking with a friend of mine who is a head trader at one of the major investment banks. He was in a meeting with their top economist who believes we will have a very high number for NFP tomorrow, somewhere around 300,000 jobs added. Of course we need 200,000 just to keep up with population, etc. so we would really only be adding 100,000 jobs but nevertheless this would be a big headline number.

    Tomorrow is one of the biggest days for PMs in quite some time and we are at so many crossroads that the reaction to this number could turn PMs into one direction or the other for a while.

    The question is will this be positive or negative for silver? People will think that QE2 will end (maybe even early) and no QE3. On the other hand silver is an industrial metal which would be positive (for example, I would expect copper to react positively to a good report).

    What are people’s thoughts on how silver will react to a positive number?

    On the other hand the expectations are so high right now that a negative number could be a huge disappointment. What do people think will happen to silver in that scenario?

  322. DG

    Intern: I have been out for a long while, so to answer the question you asked a long time ago… I do not believe that there is any use at all in establishing whether or not there is manipulation in the metals markets. Fact: Gold is in a bull market: Fact: if it breaks the previous low that is a serious warning sign. Fact: Too much leverage is dangerous…etc. Whether it is manipulated or nat makes no difference to me. It’s a lot higher than when I bought it so that’s good. If it were lower that would be bad. If someone wants top play games they are welcome to. If I trade properly I will still make money. I don;t care whether I’d have made more, less, or the same if the world were different, because because the world is the way it is, and the way it is is giving me another very good year. Different thing as a citizen, but not as an investor.

  323. Robert

    Steven,
    the jobs report tomorrow just like all the other reports from the government are as phony as a three dollar bill.It becomes more and more difficult to discuss U.S. employment “statistics”, since an ever greater percentage of what is presented is simply total fabrication.”after two years of a supposed “economic recovery”, even using the U.S. government’s own data, we see that the unemployment rate has merely equaled the rate at the “bottom” of the so-called recession. Two years of supposed “job creation” has brought the U.S. economy to the same point it was at the so-called “bottom”. Using the U.S. government’s own data, there clearly never was a recovery “Like “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”, the U.S. government has been lying about its employment data so much for so long, that even in the unlikely event that the U.S. economy did actually begin to produce positive employment gains, it’s unlikely that any thinking adult will believe it.

  324. Wes

    Steven,

    While an unusually large or small employment number can effect the price of silver in the short run, I doubt that it will abort the normal cycle. I say this only because it hasn’t done so in the past.

    The cycles unfold as the sentiment goes from bearish to bullish on silver. So far, there is no evidence of excessive bullishness, and an employment number is unlikely to influence that much, IMHO.

  328. Razvan

    “I was speaking with a friend of mine who is a head trader at one of the major investment banks. He was in a meeting with their top economist who believes we will have a very high number for NFP tomorrow”

    sounds like someone trying to scare us out of our position.
    Why dont you ask the “head trader” which way silver is going? i am sure he knows better than us

  329. Poly

    Steven,

    I agree, gold is t a crossroad, because it’s in the middle of it’s daily cycle sitting just in the pocket of all time highs.

    Tomorrow is day 12 and we will likely get a break either way. But IMO, the job number is irrelevant, the metals will break either way on a small/large number.

    If we’re going to break big tomorrow, watch out for a sharp
    fake break first in the opposite direction.

  333. PST

    Wes,
    I’ll keep this as brief and succinct as I can. Anyways, I agree with a lot of what you said. The banks certainly aren’t resource constrained and when I said that they needed deposits, it’s more of a universal comment that they need deposits to keep the fractional reserve banking system operating and the economy growing.

    In terms of QE and QE2, these were not done to recapitalize the banks or because the banks were resource constrained. The banks were recapitalized earlier (via TARP, TALF, the overnight discount window, secondary equity offerings when their stock prices recovered, etc) and they already had sufficient capital.

    Rather, QE was a form of monetary policy intended to inject the entire financial system with additional liquidity and reduce consumers and corporations cost of borrowing. Conventional loosening (cutting interest rates) was no longer possible because rates were already effectively cut to zero. By doing QE, the fed was attempting to drive REAL interest rates negative and flood the system with even more liquidity. The thought was that the banks would start lending money that they had effectively received for free to consumers at real low rates and make the spread. The problem was that banks didn’t want to make more real estate loans because they already had too much exposure (and not because they didn’t have the capital). Also, consumers didn’t want to borrow more because they were already overleveraged and were starting to delever. The banks are only the mechanism for the fed to get money into the system through lending. If the banks don’t lend, the money sits as reserves or is invested in other assets to try to generate a return.

    Fast forward to April 2010, the economy started to roll over again once QE was finished and the inventory replenishment cycle was starting to wind down. Additional fiscal policy was off the table since there wasn’t the political appetite for it, so the fed and monetary policy was really the only game in town. With rates still at zero (actually .5%), the fed’s only real option at this point was QE2 (other than reducing reserve requirements or cutting the interest that they pay to banks for their reserves, both of which would have been ineffective.)

    So, my point is that QE and QE2 wasn’t done because the banks didn’t have the capital. It was done as a stimulative measure in the absence of additional fiscal stimulus.

  334. ...at ease

    I was trading in options for the metals. Had too many options and didn’t like the leverage. But done buying now. I had to wait to get out of the red, as I was late to your party. I would have loved to been buying when you all were in january. I didn’t get in until mid February on some of my accounts and others later.

  335. Poly

    Just be careful with them, don’t buy too many and certainly not anything at or out of money.
    There will be MANY chances to make grey money, leveraging up big now to “make up” what we made in Jan and Feb has the chance of spookin you into selling for big losses.

    I say that because I sense some anxiety :). I’ve been there before.

  337. Steven

    No Razvan. We weren’t even discussing PMs, just the general economy. We later did discuss the stock market and PMs but that had nothing to do with the discussion on the employment front. And if by chance you’re referring to me as the one to scare people out of positions…well, let’s just say I am VERY long.

  338. Steven

    NikeBoy,

    I see the chart on Turd’s site but I don’t see where he says it will go to $40 and then back to $36. Can you copy and paste it here (the link I think will just send us to the whole blog).

    Thanks in advance.

  339. Mikey

    DG,

    You highlighted NLY a while back after it gapped down on a stock offering. Today it went ex-dividend and gapped down again. Not the same circumstances, but do you think there’s a trade there? Thanks.

  340. ...at ease

    Poly, I had too many Options contracts trying to make up for not getting in sooner. But too much to track. So kept my GLD125 May and June and sold the rest of the Various options deep in the money to limit to SLW, AGQ and GLD.
    I shy on miners due to the volatility. I will only do options on those if I see a move on them coming. My anxiety was having 4 accounts and try to keep them all balanced with so many options in all of them. Plain and simple now, can just put in stop loss and sell and not have to worry about all the contingencies. I am going out of the country for 6 weeks next Saturday and no way to keep up with them all with so many options in 4 accounts. Feeling better now. 🙂

  342. ...at ease

    Jeff,
    Let me know how you like it. I am on Trade Station and so many nuances with this system, I have a lot more to learn using it at the same time learning to trade and learning options. I just feel I bought a Farari when I could have done well with a Mustang. But will get there. 🙂

  345. Wes

    PST,

    I’m not sure what your point was. What you said was that money entered the economy through fractional reserve banking and thus the government had a motive to manipulate PM’s to increase bank deposits.

    I just stated that had fractional reserve banking been increasing the money supply as you described, the Fed would not have had a motive for QE2.

    I stand by my statement.

    Nobody has ever implied that QE2 was done to supply liquidity to the banks. The Fed increased the money base for that purpose and, I think, was startled when it didn’t work.

  346. TZ(4404)

    Most of you guys simply shouldn’t be playing options. I can’t make it clearer than that.

    It’s a sucker’s game and there are many reasons you are losing when you actually think you are winning or doing something smart.

    You aren’t.

  347. TZ(4404)

    Yeah, I know this will probably set off a huge debate round. And I know gary has some calls in the mix.

    I’m just trying to throw this out for the new people who may be reading all this “option this” and “options that” talk and think that is what they should be doing.

    It isn’t. Stay away.

    That’s my opinion, clearly. But I would warn those who dismiss it casually. Others can chime in as they see fit.

    And, of course, everyone has the right to buy and sell whatever they want. But I feel a certain duty to at least give counter comment for the sake of people reading the days and days of options talk going on.

    Options are a great way to lose money and appeal to the gambler instinct in humans. The guys writing them know that. Their ferraris and yachts thank you.

  348. TZ(4404)

    For the replies that will come back “but I **MAKE** money with options, so there”. I will say:

    1) Most people who THINK they make money in options actually LOSE money cause they selectively only remember the wins in their head. It’s a common psychological trait. Selective bias.

    2) For those who really DO “make money”, they usually make LESS money than if they had had a regular (leveraged) investment with stops. And they make this lesser amount at a GREATER risk.

    3) Finally, to the small small percent who actually DO make money and make LEGITIMATE risk adjusted comparable money….you guys know DARN well that you do it through VERY VERY hard work and discipline and mathematical precision. These levels being at higher levels than necessary, generally, for non options investing.

    So again, back to my original suggestion/opinion that most of you shouldn’t be in them.

  350. fat boy

    Tz well put and a good call
    I stay away from options as I cannot trade all day long or have the time to study in depth
    I think they are intoxicating but I personally know a few people who decimated (in the roman sense) their accounts
    Good luck tomorrow all

  351. Intern

    DG,

    Thanks, that’s how I try to look at it. Kind of cold blooded, not my personality, but kind of the sandbox that we’ve chosen.

  354. TZ(4404)

    Intern,

    I never even suggested that leverage was the answer or goal.

    Why do you want to buy AGQ on margin as some kind of solution?

    To what problem?
    To gamble as hard and fast as the laws of the US will allow?

  355. Robert

    from ZH toniTomorrow’s NFP number will be one of the most critical releases from the BLS: if on one hand the number is far greater than expected, it will effectively mean that QE3 will not begin immediately after the end of QE2, just like QE1 ended on March 31, 2010 only to see QE Lite implemented 4 months later. That the Fed is not willing to take a political gamble and send oil to $150 is conceivable, which is what would happen should Jon Hilsenrath start leaking QE3 rumors. On the other hand, the economy is once again turning lower as recent diffusion data (not to mention housing) has been indicating. Should the Fed implicitly tighten, by not loosening, the economic contraction will accelerate drastically, and capital markets will follow suit. And since as Hugh Hendry noted earlier, there is no China to pick up the slack, the stakes on the all in gamble in this bet that the virtuous cycle has picked up, will likely cost Bernanke his job if he ends up wrong and QE3 is needed anyway. Of course, as many believe, and as Bernanke himself has said, manipulating the market and stimulating inflation is and continues to be the Fed’s only objective. Obviously, the waterfall effects in either direction here are huge. Which is why if tomorrow’s NFP number is a beat and not just any beat but a massive one (read well over 250,000), it will be an attempt by the administration to cement the idea that the economy is now recovering. Anything at or below consensus will merely push the decision one month forward, however it will be too late to prepare the political landscape for QE3 in May, just two months ahead of the end of QE2. So tomorrow is likely D-Day on QE3 (or at least a direct continuation of POMO past the June 30 expiration date).

    In this light, it is interesting to note what Morgan Stanley has to say of Narayana Kocherlakota’s interview from late in the afternoon, which stipulated a 75 bps hike in rates as normal, and which caused a minor sell off into the close. According to David Greenlaw there are rumors that Kocherlakota may have seen, and therefore leaked, tomorrow’s NFP number, which by implication would have to be very bullish, in order for the Minneapolis Fed chairman to have such strong words encouraging tightening.

    ght on jobs report-

  358. n1tro

    at ease,

    how much you spend on tradestation? also, are you using any custom modules to help you spot opportunities?

  359. DG

    Mikey: I’ve been out all evening…I am still long NLY. The ex-dividend is not a gap because they just reduce the price by the amount of the dividend. Any decent chart service will not show a gap. I still think the stock is good in general, though.

  361. DG

    N1tro: Yep. Did fine on it. Bought at 90.87 and sold at 91.75 a week later. I always trade the things I post, though not always the exits (I either don’t remember I posted it, get out in pieces, or it hit the stop I had mentioned). I’m careful about what I post here and quite a high percentage work (I probably should probably stop trading anything I am not confident enough in to post!)

  362. ...at ease

    Nitro,
    I just did the sign up and get 6 months free platform. After that I think it will be $99 a month unless I have a certain amount of trades.

  363. ...at ease

    TZ, I have done ok when I am careful on options. I got turned off on a service I had, that would send me tips to buy this option at this price or that one and sell when you make your 50% or 100% gain. I dumped that service as they didn’t provide decent entries or exits. And just about every one they sent me NEVER made any money.
    Then I found SMT, so dumped that one and another one. I do have another service that will occassionally give me option tips on Jr miners, but I usually exit as soon as I take my profits before he notifies us to do so as he never seems to notify us at the peak. So I know exactly what you are saying. You either are trading on them and watching for the profits to take when there, or they can hammer you. I would think options is a day trader game. But then I am still learning a lot, so I am not the expert. But I studied them to learn how they worked and it is difficult to get a good price consistantly. I am sticking with Gary on out until 2016 when this ride is over.

  364. n1tro

    DG,

    So I guess you are only doing the short plays. I was more interested if HYG for a long play since at the ~$90 mark, the rate of return is about 10%. Decent for money stuck in retirement fund which you can’t get at for awhile. Any thoughts?

  365. ...at ease

    I like GLD, so might try UGL as I have been enjoying the money made on AGQ and I didn’t even get in when most of you did in January.
    So might sell a few GLDMay125 and put some in UGL to see how that one rides.

  367. Clarkatroid

    anyone on this blog from blighty?

    if so what broker is best to trade these new york instruments?

    im using Hargreaves lansdown and td waterhouse but the former has no auto stop loss system and the latter charges 1.5 % commision for currency exchanges

    neither are ideal for a uk player dealing in new york stocks i think

    many thanks

  368. jeff

    At ease
    I just like the Dom At night I will scalp the futurses with it. There are many features but I don’t have any tricky things
    Who is your broker?

  369. ...at ease

    Trade Station is my new broker. I also have the bulk of my retirement funds in Fidelity.
    I moved an IRA account over to Trade Station to get going and opened a smaller account to start a business trading entity as a (partnership LLC) with hubby, so I can trade for income and taxed as ordinary income rather than capital gains.
    I figured if I was going to have to spend a lot of money learning this game, may as well make it a business trading entity for the tax breaks for the long haul. I need to get back to doing more trading, but have been tied up learning SMT lingo and the gold sector side as well as setting up my business and getting the books going, as well. Lots of work and so much more to learn.

  376. ...at ease

    Jeff, that was nice of you.
    I have told several folks about SMT, but no one trades gold/silver. Most folks just put their money in IRAs and 401s and either let it sit in money market account or try to pick a few funds and never do another thing. They don’t like to have to think about looking and thinking.

  377. jeff

    At ease
    They only do futures I thought
    He trades pms and I wanted the feedback
    I wasn’t just being nice, I wanted like minded thinking

  378. PST

    Wes,
    This will be my last comment on that topic and then we’ll just have to agree to disagree.

    My long-winded point, was that injecting money into banks was never a motive for QE2. Much like when QE3 will eventually be announced, you won’t hear people saying that it is to save the banks or to give them more capital. The motive for QE, QE2 and QE10 is and will be as fiscal stimulus for the overall economy. TARP and other vehicles were used to recapitalize the banks.

    Now how does the fed get money into the economy(can’t dump it out of helicopters)? They do it by using banks as the intermediary. The fed purchases bank assets (MBS, treasuries, etc) and the banks must then put this money to work somewhere else, either loans or other assets. The banks absolutely benefit because they get interest and investment income, but again that’s not the point. If the economy were doing fine, QE wouldn’t be happening to give the banks more capital.

    Anyways, that’s my interpretation of what’s happening. If you have another view, then again we’ll just have to disagree on this.

  379. Shalom Bernanke

    Le Fou,

    No, it doesn’t scare me that EXK is over 70% above the 200 MA, even though I prefer it wasn’t. Rather than look at individual names, I’ll use the HUI and XAU indexes as a gauge, and when they get 50-60% above their 200 MA’s I’ll consider the trade over done, at least by that measure.

  383. Haggerty

    yea would have sold my aprils yesterday if I would have known this crap was going to happen, but Given the BS this is pretty decent. Just another day to let the averages catch up for the explosion upwards.

  384. Le Fou

    SB,

    That’s a balanced approach. Many of the miners are very far above the 200 dma. I worry that without obvious panic, they are currently unsustainable.

    Best,
    Le Fou

  391. pimaCanyon

    ‘morning all.

    Anyone know why the dollar shot up like a rocket on the 8:30 15 min bar? Jobs report? Seems weird that that would do it as it came in pretty much as expected.

  392. Poly

    Will have to wait for all the markets to open and the dust to settle before judging any reaction.

    Today’s jobs picture offered nothing new IMO. Gold will do what it intended to do and a nice drop out of the gate might not be a bad setup.

    BTW, love the 6 month daily chart on SLW.

  394. Poly

    Pima,

    I think DOC has it spot on, new int dollar cycle has formed and we’re getting some early cycle strength here.

  399. Poly

    Haggerty,

    The dollar int cycle should be very left translated into the 3yr. Gold should sniff that out fairly early on.

  400. Gary

    Folks you’ll just drive yourself nuts and likely make an emotional decision watching the intraday wiggles. Just check the market about 10 minutes before the close.

    As long as the stops haven’t been hit with either plan then there’s nothing to do today.

  404. gold silver troll

    I understand that this is a gold blog…

    Do any of you have any investments in Oil companies…seems like oil holds up much better than gold

    looks like oil will hit 150

  410. T.J. Rand

    IF gold stays the course for the rest of the day, we’ll have a daily swing high and also a lower high in place…to go along with the Intermediate cycle dollar bottom. Will put a lot of pressure on the Gold stop level.

  414. TZ(4404)

    AT EASE,

    -You think you have to create a business entity to get ‘tax breaks’ for your trading?

    -You are seeking to get taxed as ordinary income instead of capital gains?

    May I politely suggest you get an accountant who understands these financial matters before proceeding with your plans.

  416. pimaCanyon

    For TOS users: I just noticed a funky thing about TOS charts. On the chart settings, you can go to the equities tab and either check or uncheck “Show Extended Session”. That was UNchecked on my chart of SLV, but I was seeing price data on the chart for this morning before the 9:30 open.

    Turns out if the chart is for hourly bars, it will have an hourly bar that starts at 9:00 regardless of whether that toggle is checked or unchecked.

    When I switched to 30 min bars, the price data for this morning disappeared (until after 9:30).

  417. TZ(4404)

    If I’m missing something, of course, about your situation I appologize.

    And I’m not an accountant or tax professional.

    🙂

  420. Farm Girl

    I suspect TZ’s question is why would you want to turn capital gains into ordinary income, unless you are planning to run losses.

  421. DG

    n1tro: HYG trades like a stock. That is, it will move with the SPX. I am not bullish on stocks as they are too overdone on the upside so can not recommend HYG. If the market tanks it will too. It’s yield should also be higher which just shows that there is a lot of overconfidence in the market right now. Not for me. Too risky as a long-term hold (though I have been long it for in the past when people are running scared).

  425. Movax2

    Jeff..

    Elaborate on what part?

    I am Canadian, so gold is cheaper for me, in nominal Canadian dollars

    Does that clear it up?

  426. pimaCanyon

    well, too bad, mlmt. Sorry to hear that (I’m not being sarcastic either). Since we’re all seeing losses this morning, would be nice if you had a big gain.

    So what does your analysis tell you now? When will you get back in on the short side? Or when will you jump ships and go long?

  434. Shalom Bernanke

    ANV blowing into new highs today. I’m not sure why, but this stock has moved before the rest of the miners in the past, then goes sideways/lower while the other names catch up.

    I’ve got my limit orders to buy below current prices (in SVM, NUGT, and SIL). Other than that, not much to be done, so I’m stepping away for a few hours.

  435. Movax2

    There is a bit of pride seeing CAD up against the USD, even though it is part of the same paper money system and not really much better in any qualitative aspect.

  436. Shalom Bernanke

    Gary’s right, no need to drive ourselves crazy one tick at a time, or worse, get induced into making a poor trade like exiting before stops are hit. 🙂

    Good luck!

  438. pimaCanyon

    Poly,

    Well, you must see this as a great buying opp. Do you have a stop on your new positions you added today? Or will you just go with Gary’s stop on close plan?

  441. Poly

    Pima,

    I see this as a potential pivot point with a very tight stop (Gary’s)

    Very little to lose and a possible reversal always on the cards, considering this is still Day 12 of the daily cycle.

  443. fat boy

    Poly
    Sounds like a good plan
    Makes me feel conservative as I am still set up for 1385 stops as per old plan. Not enough time to even set it all up though good luck all I,m following Gary on the look towards the end of the day

  444. mylifemytrade

    Unfortunately Gold and silver short train has left the station.

    They will push equities up for one last time today and I expect them to take equities AND PMs down big on Monday.

    This is the set up I was playing.. but oh well.

  446. Farm Girl

    Dollar up, Stocks up, Gold up – Economy looks stronger, but inflation fears – TOMORROW?
    Dollar up, Stocks up, Gold down – Economy looks stronger, no inflation problem – TODAY
    Dollar up, Stocks down, Gold up – Safe haven reaction to geopolitical problems
    Dollar up, Stocks down, Gold down – Deflation trade
    Dollar down, Stocks up, Gold up – Inflation trade and hyperinflation trade
    Dollar down, Stocks up, Gold down – Geopolitical problem resolved, reverse safe haven trade
    Dollar down, Stocks down, Gold up – Inflation raising corporate raw materials costs
    Dollar down, Stocks down, Gold down – Stagflation

  448. DG

    MLMT: If you generally have a preference for not giving reasons for your statements I will stop asking, but if you are inclined to give them it makes your posts much more worth while so people can decide whether they have validity or not given their own experiences. “They are going to tank on Monday.” What makes you say that or do you prefer not to say what you are seeing? Otherwise people come on here and just say anything (Dow 25,000!” etc.)

    Too bad you covered yesterday. Yeah, trading is pretty unforgiving.

  451. pimaCanyon

    MLMT,

    Well, if you believe odds are good that PM’s will head south on Monday, why not re-enter at least some of your short positions today? Maybe on a push up to 1425 or eve3n 1430 on gold?

  453. Romeo Bravo

    I think part of the reason that PMs are not outperforming is that equities are on a run. Risk appetite is going there.

    I don’t think we will see PMs leap up and run until the general market starts to at least stagnate and possibly go down (but maybe not down hard or very steeply, just drip, drip.)

  462. Duuuuuude

    I have never seen an Accumulation/Distribution number as high on any company as I see on Silver Wheaton at 109.7. Big money still likes this one a LOT!

  463. Poly

    Whitebear,

    I do not disagree and coming out of that coil to the downside is not necessarily a bad thing.

    I tried to show it yesterday with a chart I posted, there is a nice little 6 day Cup/Handle consolidation on Silver(yes I know 6 days is too short) and potentially this break down fakeout “handle” move before launching out of it.

  464. Wes

    I took this morning’s weakness to switch my April SLV calls to equivalent dollar amounts of May calls.

    This resulted in more contracts at a higher strike. Good if it goes up :).

  465. whitebear

    Poly,

    Agreed, I think this breakdown is a fakeout. Not to mention the fact that there are no sellers of silver. There has been ample opportunity for the bears to continue to sell with one of these swift downdrafts. However, there is no follow through…yet.

  467. james r

    It seems once a trendline is broken the market will take the lease resistant path which is down.

    The dollar two weeks ago broke its three year terndline so no matter what the news it will continue on its path.

    This reminds me of the time in 2008 when the gov’t step in with TARP. Even after the announcement the market continue its downward path.

    So no suprise the dollar will continue to fall until it reaches its critical junction.

  469. PST

    Whitebear/Poly,
    Maybe you guys can help me out on this. I’m not very experienced in technical analysis, so I was assuming that we would see the breakdown of the coil on a daily chart. My question is when do you guys use daily vs. intraday charts, and what would constitute the breakdown/breakout?

  470. Clarkatroid

    This bull is showing remarkable resilience in the face of aversity. It’s took a lot of punches in the last 2 weeks but keeps getting up off the canvas.

  472. Ryan

    I really should be adding more to the metals but I’m over weighted there so adding the rest of my dry powder into SLW. Doesn’t feel good right now but charts looks good.

  473. LowTax

    Man the dollar is crap. Totally blew its whole move up today, all of it in the toilet. My only concern with PMs is that a lot of them are now under the recent trendlines from mid-March – they seem to be testing the underside right now. Doesn’t this usually portend more weakness ahead?

  474. whitebear

    I am saying that Silver is still bullish.
    However, I was getting nervous when it didn’t do what it was “supposed” to do. To me, that was test the breakout and explode higher, rather than dick around.

    We need to break 37.60, on the hourly here and hold, to confirm my buy set up on the 4h.

  475. Wes

    Poly,

    Another good thing to remember is change option months into weakness.

    I’m up on the day as a result, even though silver is still down.

  476. Moneyman

    U.S. dollars movement is interesting. Did not think it would fall back so hard ..

    This is not exactly bullish for the dollar..

    But I’ve said it before .. The euro up and the dollar down..

    /Faber

    We are all doomed!

    /Faber

  478. whitebear

    PST,

    I use my TA with the cycles and trade with the trend.

    Larger time frames take precedence over the lower ones. Remember those microscopes in biology class? There were different magnifications. That is what the different time frames serve as.

    A coil or consolidation is little more than a trading range. Usually used for accumulation/distribution. Easier for me to see it on the 1h/4h verses the daily.

  481. han

    Duuude/Pima: I see declining accumulation/distribution ratings on SLW since March 8. Source is O’Neil.

  483. The Angry Hippie

    You think the run up in cotton has since august has anything to do with all the money Uncle Ben has been printing? 🙂

    I hope the Fed are doesnt start confiscating t-shirts in preparation for QE3.

  485. Gary

    This is why one should just follow the plan. Watching the intraday moves will just cause you do get whipsawed to death.

    I expect by next week the dollar will be making lower lows. Traders used the brief strength this morning to sell.

  487. The Angry Hippie

    How do you all get a read on buying vs selling at different points? Seems to me, in my relative lack of experience, buying can’t exist without selling. How does one determine that traders used strength to sell this morning? Is based on the sharp decline that occurred?

  490. T.J. Rand

    The dollar looks horrible…

    FWIW- took off leverage a couple of days ago. I’m still very long, but the leverage absent a clear upward move was making me uncomfortable. I’ll probably put it back on when we break up.

  492. Poly

    Wes,

    I’ve found it hard swapping out options on both weakness and strength, prices are all over the place. I like flat quiet days for the “housekeeping”.

  493. iip4u

    Interesting factoid: Today’s range in AGQ encompasses the previous 7 closes. The last time it encompassed 6 closes was Jan 28….

  494. Duuuuuude

    Sitting here watching this thing grind sideways for weeks on end feels grueling and is discouraging. As I scale my charts outwardly however, and in looking at the dollar, gold, and silver, it really looks bullish to me. Who knows….could go lower, but if you were to ask me to objectively look at these charts, I would be bullish. http://screencast.com/t/UwxhsxFvMp

  495. Poly

    I think the dollar tanking because the market knows all of this FED talk of raising rates is just grandstanding! The opposite will continue.

    200k job growth this deep (forget what the press think) into a recovery is hopeless! Manufacturing numbers still slowing and congress has placed a noose around Treasury Dept ability to stimulate further via spending.

  497. Wes

    Poly,

    Nice move buying the weakness, this morning.

    Will you use the add as trading shares ? I own some trading shares, but obviously have not been able to take advantage of them, yet.

    What did you add ?

  498. DG

    Very frustrating. I am out next week traveling on business (and will be posting a lot less, therefore). I don’t like initiating new positions right before I am going to be out of touch. I got a perfect set-up for my style this morning: whenever early in the day we get close to a stop point, I buy because my risk is tiny. Gold got to $1412 (the stop is $1410) and I didn’t buy AGQ as I had planned. $218 looks pretty good right now. Damn!

  499. Robert

    The jobs report numbers are a joke plain and simple .Take away the birth/death model and you have basically no new jobs added. Current U.S. unemployment is about 16% – nearly double what the U.S. government pretends it to be.Like “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”, the U.S. government has been lying about its employment data so much for so long, that even in the unlikely event that the U.S. economy did actually begin to produce positive employment gains, it’s unlikely that any thinking adult will believe it.

  500. Wes

    Poly,

    Rarely does the silver price make a V bottom. There is usually about a 30 to 60 minute window at least after it bottoms.

    Switching options months at bottoms means exchanging high delta options for lower delta, even though both are DIM. Equal dollar amounts means you add more options in the exchange for the out month.

    The original # times the original delta is less than the new # times the new delta, so leverage is increased.

    The increased leverage is why this is best done at lows, if possible.

    http://www.futurespros.com/metals/silver-advanced-chart

  501. DG

    By the way, this is a strategy I’d heartily recommend for almost anyone. Just be disciplined about honoring the stop, and be certain it’s a good stop and not a randomly chosen number. But buying this morning when gold was near $1410 risked…not much at all. Gary said sell at the close, but for my purposes I’d have sold the extra trading shares I had bought at $1409. And if we go up from here the trading shares turn into long-term holds, and you’d be nice and heavy. As I said above…Damn that I missed it!

  503. Poly

    Very good point about the switching of options, thank Wes.

    I picked up a tonne of SLW and some AGQ, mainly because I wanted to fire away immediately and didn’t want to ‘research” more call options. Also so close to sell triggers after a big drop I didn’t want to be buying and possibly exiting call options same day.

    I will let them ride now. SLW popping now.

  504. Hot Rod

    I’m going to add one more point to the manipulation theory I outlined yesterday (crushing price to buy up derivatives).

    Looking at this morning’s action, the price crush was on very little volume. Then throughout the day after the market opened we have had huge volume waves as the price came back up.

    Hmmmmm.

    In other words, fairly easy and cheap to get the price down 2% in order to accumulate loads and loads of undervalued derivatives…

  505. Yash

    DG .. I had limit on agq at 215 and missed it !! it touched ma10 but did not bother to go to ma20 !!! my limit order was between them.

  507. DG

    Yash: 215 was a reasonable number but perhaps not best (at least from my perspective). I’d play it off the stop point because then you have a defined tiny risk. Sometimes stocks make it down to the MA’s and sometimes they don’t. For me it’s all about risk/reward and buying near a stop is a favorably skewed as it can get. 20-to-1 risk reward, with a good chance of working.

  509. Ryan

    Poly,

    Thanks for posting your buy in the morning, that gave me the extra push I needed and I added the rest of my dry powder and fully loaded. Now to just sit on my hands and watch.

  513. Beanie

    Rumor, supposedly from reliable sources, going around last month that govt planning on confiscating American’s gold/silver once gold hits $2,000 and issue a new currency.

  520. Shalom Bernanke

    Beano,

    All kidding aside, what’s up with your top recommendation MU?

    Man, if it’s down today it’s a lemon. Reliable sources are saying it’ll be bankrupt with 5 years. You’re 2nd favorite pick CY isn’t doing much better.

  521. DG

    Beanie: That “from reliable sources” post is one of the funniest posts I have ever seen on this blog. It makes no sense to confiscate gold and issue a new currency—none whatsoever since gold and the currency have nothing at all to do with each other.

    The good news is that you tend to post whenever gold goes down for a little while and it has always been a great buy signal in the past, so thank for posting and waiting until $1410 to do it! Now we can rally!

  522. Shalom Bernanke

    Alright, back to reloading ammo. I make more when I’m tinkering around than when I watch every tick.

    Good luck, especially to Beano who needs the S&P to double again just to get even. 🙂

  523. Beanie

    Just passing the news, ’cause those guys are supposedly gold experts who have lots of high level connections. Don’t shoot the messenger.

  528. Robert

    the Feds manipulation from Dan Norcici
    9:27 AM
    Federal Reserve Confusion? – I don’t think sofrom Trader Dan’s Market Views by Trader Dan
    Remarks from analysts this morning about Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley’s dovish comments on the state of the US economy mostly miss the mark in my view.

    Dudley’s words stood out in stark contrast to those by other Fed officials last week and this week who have been sounding a hawkish tone and chattering about ending QE. To paraphrase some of his comments: The US economic recovery is ‘still tenuous’ and ‘far from the mark’ of the Central Bank’s goals of full employment and price stability, according to a report carried by Bloomberg this AM.

    Dudley remarked that we must not be overly optimistic about the growth outlook”.

    Almost as if on cue, the bond market sharply reversed course after selling off this morning on the payrolls number. The Dollar simultaneously began slipping off its session highs.

    Analysts were quick to chime in stating that the comments reflect the confusion and lack of consensus within the Fed. I do not think so to be perfectly honest for the reason that I have stated previously here at this site.

    If the Fed starts sounding hawkish in an attempt to keep the Dollar from collapsing through a major chart support level near 75 on the USDX, they cannot prevent the long bond from breaking down technically and thus commence a rise in long term interest rates which will bury what might be any signs of life in the comatose housing market.

    If they sound too dovish then the Dollar will come under renewed selling pressure potentially setting up a serious move lower in the greenback as it remains sitting perilously just above technical price chart support.

    The Fed is attempting to keep both the Dollar from collapsing lower (they do want a sustained and gradual move lower – not a crash) and the long bond from collapsing. This is the reason for the conflicting signals being put out.

    The idea is to keep enough confusion and uncertainty in the market to prevent speculators from getting too aggressive either way. Once the specs become convinced the Fed might move to end QE, the bond market will be massacred.
    If the market becomes convinced that the Fed will not only keep QE2 going but engage in a QE3, then the Dollar will be obliterated.

    The Fed created its own box and now they can deal with it. One thing is certain – they are not going to be able to have their cake and eat it too. What they will eventually have to come to grips with is that they are going to either have to sacrifice the Dollar or sacrifice the long bond.

  532. Poly

    I’m not sure we’re done for the day, Silver looks ready to shoot higher here out of 2.5 hour consolidation.

  534. MrMiyagi

    92000,
    You are right in that, also many other members provide valuable insight on this board, Pima, Shalom, Poly, Veronica and others that I forgot, as well as that Miyagi dude with his funny, witty random posts.
    Damn. I burnt my coffee. Don’t you hate that?

  535. Aaron

    HUI looking really good (closing above that trend line, next week should be it, we shall go higher, much higher.

  536. Yash

    my dow theory knowledge says we never got dow theory sell signal so this is not new buy signal .. the original buy after march 2009 low is still going on. tim woods writes about it on safe heaven.
    i had said before stocks has to go up in order to get PM up too. its just that stocks may go up slowly and PM faster at the end. so by may end top stocks may be up 8% (1425 is my target) gold 12% and silver 20%

  538. makutaku

    Beanie: “You folks are very brave to be going all in on silver.”

    If Gold will be confiscated when it reaches $2000, there’s at least an additional 35% profit to be made!

    Bravery is not needed!

    Also, it’s Silver we are in. Do you believe they are going to confiscate Silver too ? 🙂

  540. TZ(4404)

    LARGE volume on gold this morning, both on the hit downwards and the recovery back up.

    I take that one of two ways:

    1) A (likely) final washout of any remaining weak longs before we now go higher (absent them on the side of the road).

    2) A significant change of hands/positions occurred in the gold market. Mostly obscured still by the seeming rally that brought us most of the way back up.

    Situation #1 will take care of itself cause we are long, holding and waiting. The action of silver further supports #1.

    #2 is the concern because it means that a bunch of parties offloaded their positions to (likely) dumber people and that the next direction is lower.

    #2 scenario wouldn’t make us happy, of course, but (HERE is the key point of my post) it FURTHER REINFORCES my opinion that a break of the 1410-1413 zone to the downside is a point to BAIL and take profits.

    We’ve had multiple spikes down to that level all week (I ascribe them to manipulation as you know). Today was another violent one. The difference was that today’s was on huge volume. Thus, if we now go down and break that level with all the volume, it will be a serious and legitimate change.

  545. Farm Girl

    TZ – bears or bulls usually only get three tries to turn a market down or up, rarely four. Today was the bears’ fourth try, and it totally failed. (See Gary’s gold chart in the March 30 letter.) They are done.

    So I guess I wouldn’t argue with your sale breaking 1410, because that would mean the bulls are so weak they can’t even prevent the bears from taking a fifth shot at it.

    IMO it is not the cards. You can sitck a fork in the bears; they’re done.

  548. Rick 4779

    I think gold and silver are both going up (as soon as I click “publish your comment”, there will probably be a plunge downwards).

    Anyway, I think they are going up because of the Bollinger bands. Bollinger made some important observations:
    1) Low volatility (narrow bandwidth) begets higher volatility (broader bandwidth).
    2) As volatility moves from low to high, price changes will move further away from the average, (picture the Standard Deviation curve, towards the ends, not the middle).
    3) These price changes will generally be in the direction of the existing trend.

    Bollinger bands are currently very narrow (low volatility) for both gold and silver, and according to Bollinger, this situation means that higher volatility will soon follow…and that appears to be happening now.

    What is the current trend? Both the 10 DMA and 20 DMA are pointing upwards (and 50 DMA and 200 DMA). So, if you trust Bollinger on this, you will see prices of gold and silver going up in the coming days/weeks.

    Click…

  549. MrMiyagi

    Stalled momentum is what this is…
    In other news, masses keep piling into Netflicks, Priceline, Salesforce and other tech stocks.

  550. Jayhawk

    Dear AG,

    Thank you for not sucking and for being awesome. You make the fact that SLW has been sucking easier on me.

    Yours Truly,
    Jayhawk

  551. W

    Hello All:

    Leeb @ The Complete Investor dumped slw today. He thinks their future contracts with miners will not be as good as curent ones and the current contracts may need to be revised. That might explain some of the “extra” slw weakness vs other silver plays.

    Would like a comment from any of the more experienced option traders. I see the ACTUAL delta of my slw options is slightly more than 1.0 today. Dose that mean I paid too much for my ITM calls?

  553. Ollie

    Good post TZ, I was also thinking along the lines of your 2nd scenario therefore I’m on the sidelines at the moment

    If this spike down and recovery had occured after a prolonged decline I would be a buyer here

    However this close to a recent top it can also be a way to lure in the latecomers who are eager to rush in while strong hands are unloading

    I am not confident either way and when in doubt I’m out

  555. Poly

    I wouldn’t worry about SLW, if this space busts open it will get busy moving, SLW has $60 print in no time, IMO.

    Using the $29.20 -Jan 25th base low to the top @ $45, a good $15 pop to $60.

  558. pimaCanyon

    Tempting to put some money into AG, except for the fact that it’s very close to the upper channel line drawn off the January 25 low.

    Sheesh, that low was at 10.32. Price has more than doubled in a little over two months!

  559. W

    Poly thanks for your reply:

    Note I’m refering to ACTUAL delta today. ie. check either the jun or sep slw 42’s move today against the stock on a per share basis. I know the projected delta calculation will not produce a number greater than one. And thus my qurestion: did I pay too much for the options?

  561. pimaCanyon

    Another fun week, eh?

    I’m out for now.

    Have a great weekend all!

    Wifey and I will be going up Mt Wrightson in the Santa Ritas tomorrow, about 4100 feet of elevation gain (beats chest). Not in Gary’s league by any means, but still a good workout.

  564. Jayhawk

    Yes, AG was just listed on the NYSE back in Dec. Was traded on the pinks before.

    My position is up 68%. I know ALEX had a double on it.

    I did have a pretty hefty chunk of SVM and scaled it back a bit a few weeks back, moving it into EXK & AG. I have way too much SLW it looks like. AG dipped nicely this AM but quickly went green. I don’t know what it is with that stock, but it keeps rocking.

    One I grew frustrated with last year is SSRI. Just took a look at it’s chart and was impressed with the action.

    Ticker GOLD (Randgold) finally popped this week after getting crushed for months.

  565. Poly

    W,

    I don’t know what you paid or if its too much, but those June $42’s closed down $0.45 and the underlying down $0.55, so less than 1.

    BUT, you’re only looking at these based on yesterdays closing price and the SLW calls are VERY thinly traded. You don’t know when the last sale occured, could have been 2.30pm yesterday at a different udnerlying price, but today’s %change will work off that price.
    The June $42’s have volume of only 59!
    Does that make sense?

    That’s why I don’t touch options in miners.

  566. W

    Yes, thanks. I see also that the bid/asked spread is enough to explain numbers you gave vs what my acc valuation shows for the jun 42 call. The sep call is not too far off. I have largely stock for that position.

    It does seems the alure of a low cost ITM calls for slw may have caused some over bidding…

    The bull has given us a belly roll, but I’m still aboard.

  567. Poly

    It is SO EASY to over pay on any of these thinly traded options, especially when the stock is moving. People panic buy and take out the asking price, which with poor spreads automatically puts your position significantly down.

    Then the underlying stock turns sharply, being volatile miners, they panic sell and take out the bid price. Before you know it you lost 20% and the underlying barely blinked an eye.

  568. Poly

    I’m out of here, good weekend to all, enjoy and relax.

    Metals closing right at the highs. Looks like traders want to take home contract certificates for the weekend, certainly not a bad sign.

    Good luck Gary, post an annoucnement or video.

  569. TZ(4404)

    >SLW will you PLEASE stop sucking?

    In the tail end of a wave, the metals will beat the stocks.

    And silver will beat everything.

    Nothing is wrong. You are getting EXACTLY what has happened in all previous rallies.

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLW:SLV&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p57066993758

    SLW is at the same value to silver as 10 months ago in June – and that is with increased risk.

    The charts look worse for SIL, GDX, and GDXJ.

    Yes, I’m repeating myself. But so are you guys who keep saying “what is wrong?” “why aren’t they performing?” “maybe the top is in?”.

  570. TZ(4404)

    >FARM GIRL

    >TZ – bears or bulls usually only get three tries to turn a market down or up, rarely four.

    When you print money and run both the financial system and own the govt – you get as many tries as you want.

    And when you fail, you just change the rules.

  571. TZ(4404)

    >Good post TZ, I was also thinking along the lines of your 2nd scenario therefore I’m on the sidelines at the moment

    There was nothing in my #1/#2 post that was bearish…YET.

    I’m 7x long with stops at the point when the market SHOWS me something is wrong. Not out cause I *think* the market may be going down.

    Nothing has broken yet and markets are notorious for faking people out.

  572. DG

    TZ: Why is it different than for stock? For example, at the end of the tech bubble every little piece of garbage outperformed the Q’s, some by hundreds of %. Any thoughts on this? I’d think the juniors would attract the ,most speculative public money? Are the overwhelmed by the big money cashing out? For myself I am 90% in Q’s, but I like to have a picture of the physics behind these things.

    By the way, did you add to your silver at Gold $1413 with a tight stop, and if not, why not?

  573. TZ(4404)

    >Dump those stinky SLW shares and buy SVM instead.

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVM:SLV&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p20169721367

    SVM is worse than SLW. You are FLAT going back well over a year and you are in a stock with MUCH more risk than SLW. SVM is a china risk and also a direct operator of a small number of mines.

    Keep those stock symbols coming folks. I got all day to show you how they aren’t beating straight silver (unless they are too small or volatile that you wouldn’t put all your money in them anyway.)

    (DG prob about to jump on me again for being too ‘smart’ 🙂

  574. Poly

    TZ,

    I’m with you, I am primarily leverage against SLV, nothing else to worry about except for the price of Silver 🙂

    But you’re chart clearly does show that SLW does outperform SLV towards the end of the IT cycle. During the Aug to Dec run in Silver, SLW outperformed and in fact by a big margin. From less than 1:1 ratio to almost 1.5:1

  576. TZ(4404)

    I’ll say that AG has a large mkt cap and is also one that is actually outperforming against silver.

    I don’t know enough about it to know if I’d put my net worth in the stock, but I would guess they have 1 or 2 performing mines at best. Which means one problem and YOU have a problem.

    Still…it’s the best seeming so far for a leading contender.

  577. Avann

    TZ … I’m with you … I unloaded all my miners and now straight into silver and nothing else.
    Less complication and so far more money.

  579. Poly

    Good chart Jaw. You can clearly see it in TZ own provided ratio charts too 🙂

    But his point is valid, “in general” the “large cap” miners are not doing that much better than the metal. I know that is not true for the juniors.

    OK, out of here.

  581. DG

    TZ: I’d never jump you for BEING smart, just for bragging about it. If being smart were bad I wouldn’t have ask you two questions, right? Just try not to show disdain for everyone else is all.

    And I’m quite interested in your response to Jayhawk’s charts. It would especially work for me if you responded without “Jayhawk you moron—allow me to enlighten you” though. Is that fair?

  582. ddn3f

    Avann,

    Thanks for letting us know. I’m glad people keep checking the premium site. I would have missed the report otherwise.

  583. TZ(4404)

    JAY,

    >Last intermediate cycle from July to Dec, SLW started outperforming SLV at the end of the wave. Ended up 125% vs 70% SLV on that run.

    I was very clear in my assertions last time I made them weeks ago. This is NOT based on ‘intermediate cycles’. It is based on the FINAL BLOWOFF of an **ENTIRE** cycle.

    The blowoff periods in past are:

    2/1/04-4/4/04
    3/12/06-5/14/06
    2/10/08-3/16/08

    (these are eyeballed from a weekly chart so you have to adjust the dates a bit to get exact)

    THESE are the ‘final blowoff’ periods of an ENTIRE C wave. Similar to what we are expecting here with a top in a month or so.

    I ask that you go back and compare $SILVER or SLV to SLW or any other major stock you think was better and see who won in those final surges.

  586. Jayhawk

    Basket of EXK, AG, SVM, AXU, SLW all out perform SLV since the start of the intermediate.

    Junior Basket

    Back it out 1 year (AG I deleted because it was just listed in Dec on the NYSE)
    Juniors one year

    All outperform SLV. Notice how they all took off from SLV in Nov towards the finale? Sure, if you want to talk AGQ or futures, I’m sure those kill the miners. But there are some risks with those instruments that the conspiracy boys will quickly point out.

  587. DG

    Oh I do love you TZ. Can’t I just love you my own way? Actually, it is a little harder to love someone who thinks I’m a moron 🙂

  588. Jayhawk

    TZ-

    I’m not sure I’m even buying the whole C-wave blow off here at this point. I think this cycle is going to be a strong intermediate. 2008 was a freak year for any and all stocks. I think the miners are way under valued here vs the POS. (PAAS, SSRI, gold miners like AUY, etc.)

    Although, we are riding the most explosive juniors. 🙂

  589. TZ(4404)

    JAY,

    BOTH your “Junior Basket” and “Juniors one year” charts were comparisons against SLW, **NOT** SLV.

    Re-run the chart properly please basing them against SLV.

    And remember that this ‘last phase’ of the C wave appears to have started 1/28/11, so would you kindly use that as the start point.

    THanks.

  590. TZ(4404)

    As we continue and discuss your re-run charts, please also remember that this ‘final C blowoff’ is not finished yet. In the earlier phases the stocks will lead a bit, but that is rather quickly dissapating as many have noticed already.

  592. Jayhawk

    Like I said, I don’t know if this will be a blow off top here. I have a very hefty chunk of AGQ. What % would you recommend?

    Here’s last summer’s intermediate vs SLV. See how the juniors exploded at the end. AXU was the best pick then.
    Last Summer

    SLV vs.the bask since Jan 27.

    here

    Everything beating SLV except AXU.

  594. PST

    My guess is it was an April Fools joke. Gary said that the site would be down because he was changing servers.

  595. TZ(4404)

    JAY,

    Thanks for updated chart. I see I made a mistake in my earlier comment such that the first charts you had were not stocks AGAINST SLW, but simply had SLW as one of the lines. I read the chart title wrong.

    Thanks for the update. It DOES illustrate points on BOTH sides of the argument and I will reply soon enough with my take for consideration.

    DG: I’ll also explain how I see this market compared to tech stocks when all the junk was flying as you mention. I think that is COMING. But A) obviously not here yet and B) easy enough to catch WHEN it happens without necessitating the argument of “i have to be in BEFORE” (and suffering underperformance).

  597. TZ(4404)

    DG,

    I got stopped out of two small (10% increases) in gold futures today as we dropped. I adding on a third attempt and it is holding going into the weekend.

    It was more on a lark cause I expect big up soon (but we have a clear stop just a bit lower as you said). This isn’t really a buy point from my view so I was playing more than anything (which usually is bad in the market – and I DID lose money doing it.)

  598. DG

    TZ: Yes my question is slightly academic, but those sorts of understandings filter in and inform my picture which informs my trading ultimately. I think you know what I mean. It seemed like ti was in fact starting a few weeks ago before we stalled out and I did jump some miners. I have done well in them, but the have not outperformed AGQ (yet?) In the public frenzy to come (we hop!) I suspect they will.

    Great back and forth between you and Jayhawk. Thanks to both of you. This is a great board! Have a great weekend. I am off to Millwaiukee, NYC, CT, and Palm Springs.

  600. Salty

    Gary did post brief comments in the premium section, in lieu of the weekend update. Among other things, he says the coil in silver is negated.

  601. DG

    Gary’s other point was that he had thought the jobs report dollar would mark a turn for the $. Its dropping all day after being strong in the morning seemed to support that idea. He expects further weakness in the $ next week (which is good for our side).

  602. Steven

    Salty (or anyone else who was able to get into the premium site),

    Did he explain what he meant by the coil being negated? Did he mention if it is a positive or negative? I can’t get into the premium site so any explanation would be helpful.

    Thanks.

  604. Wes

    Jayhawk,

    In case you didn’t notice :

    “I was very clear in my assertions last time I made them weeks ago. This is NOT based on ‘intermediate cycles’. It is based on the FINAL BLOWOFF of an **ENTIRE** cycle.”

    EQUALS

    “Jayhawk you moron—allow me to enlighten you”

  605. Steven

    David,

    I agree and point well taken but what is the point of a premium site if we cannot get into it! 🙂 I make my best efforts not to divulge what shouldn’t be on this public site but for now the premium site is having major issues.

  607. DG

    David: Fair enough, but Gary is having technical problem. I’m sure he wouldn’t mind if during an outage the members are told what’s going on. It’s probably a one shot thing and surely temporary

    His point about the coil is that it’s a specific pattern that has now been ruined. This is not bullish or bearish, it just means the pattern is no longer valid, so ignore the previous comments about it.

  608. DG

    I got in and read it. It was very short. Other than the coil comment and the comment on the dollar (which I posted earlier) there was nothing there to speak of.

  609. Romeo Bravo

    Guys, the premium site is being moved to a new server this weekend due to heavy traffic volume. I don’t think this process can be speeded up. Gary mentioned 24 hours or so.

    It’s the weekend all, markets won’t open till Monday. Relax and look at the premium site on Sunday.

    Good weekend all!

  612. Jayhawk

    I am pretty much a moron! 🙂

    I’m most likely overweighted in SLW thus my frustration.

    36% SLW
    28% AGQ
    13% AG
    10% SVM
    7% EXK
    5% AXU

    IRA is mostly AGQ with some SLW calls.

    I’m tempted to cut some of those miners and move into AGQ

  613. Ryan

    I agree with David, we shouldn’t be discussing the premium content here. And for all others trying to get the site, I’m sure it’ll be available on the new server. Relax market is closed tomorrow! 🙂

  614. DG

    Sure Steven. I’ll post them all. It’ll take me about eleven hours to cut and paste, so just check back later. 😉

  615. Slumdog

    Jayhawk:”I’m tempted to cut some of those miners and move into AGQ”

    Why not wait til it’s all over?
    There’s conservative greed, and there’s outright, full-on greed.

    Think TEPCO. They saved a buck for a few years, and then, oh gee, the Japanese govt is bailing them out. So, maybe you act like TEPCO and you’ll get a backup cash infusion?

    Leave the serious gamblings to the gamblers. Take the precious track. Hoard the stuff in physical or in calls on the stuff via ETF’s and quit the adrenalin.

    If you need the jolt, get rittalin or adderall and live it up. It always works and you avoid the glum feelings you have now.

  616. Wes

    My account was up more than 6% this week. In the real world, that would be yard in the bottom of the ninth with two out.

    But, with silver, it seems like break even.

  617. Shalom Bernanke

    “What’s the point of a premium site if we immediately recap it in the comments?”-David

    I agree. Not only that, but Steven can’t even act on his report for 2 1/2 days and still feels compelled.

  618. Gurvir

    Guys we are trying to make the switch over to the new site seamless. Hopefully we wont even have to bring the current site down other than block people from registering until we cut over.

    Once the new site is up we will monitor the traffic and tweak the servers for performance.

  620. ahain1223

    See attached an output from my seasonal model. This view shows 2 years from beginning of 2010 to end of 2011. The simple strategy here was to buy into weakness at the point nearest to an upturn in seasonal strength and sell during weaker periods. rinse repeat. I never sold short into this up trend. However should the trend change i will ignore seasonally bullish periods and focus on those bearish ones

    http://www.screencast.com/users/ahain1223/folders/Default/media/4b464080-f8c3-467b-967e-45497cd677b9

  624. Hot Rod

    What a day, what a day, what a day.

    I feel like I am getting spoiled that each time there is a raid I expect silver to immediately bounce back. Today was epic.

    How awesome was it that Gary came up for air to post today and his comment was exactly #401, starting a new page. I wonder if he did that on purpose or not.

    Anyway, the “Friday Effect” is still in effect.

    Everyone have a good weekend.

    Let’s hope Gary brings home the gold, title, whatever he gets if he wins (and stays healthy).

  627. Steven

    Mr. Shalom “point out the affiliation of a particular religion” Bernanke,

    Actually AGQ was still trading and I actually made a trade AFTER that post. Who the heck are you to question my motives. I noticed you didn’t question any else’s but that’s because I have been the only one to call you out.

    You are beyond arrogant and the post was not directed towards you but then again I suppose bigots, racists & anti-semitics feel the need to interject their opinions without any reality or facts to back them up.

    Oh I and I see in your profile that you, Shalom, live in Israel. If Volcker was still at the helm I’m sure you wouldn’t interject his religion into the topic or place him at the Vatican.

    I suppose that is what they refer to as the uneducated & ignorant portion of our population.

    Who the heck are you anyway…or more appropriately, who the heck do you think you are?

    Move on…

  631. fat boy

    Tz jay hawk and dg good catch up reading today and thanks
    Only read report 8 pm PAC, seams reasonable
    Good luck Gary
    I,ll move my stops to 1410 when I get a chance and

    Hey Alex from my buys on my pin money trades
    Exk + 34%
    Pzg -4%
    Auy -4%
    goRo -8%
    Axu- 8%

    What do you reckon? how do you think they are shaping up?

  633. fat boy

    Steven eamonn give mr Ben a break
    without some humor we have nothing and i have not read a single anti Semitic posting from Ben But have read a lot of good contributing commentary

  634. Jayhawk

    Slumdog said…
    Jayhawk:”I’m tempted to cut some of those miners and move into AGQ”

    Why not wait til it’s all over?
    There’s conservative greed, and there’s outright, full-on greed.

    Think TEPCO. They saved a buck for a few years, and then, oh gee, the Japanese govt is bailing them out. So, maybe you act like TEPCO and you’ll get a backup cash infusion?

    Leave the serious gamblings to the gamblers. Take the precious track. Hoard the stuff in physical or in calls on the stuff via ETF’s and quit the adrenalin.

    If you need the jolt, get rittalin or adderall and live it up. It always works and you avoid the glum feelings you have now.

    I’m like the greedy bastards who cut corners at the Japan nuc plant? Weird analogy.

    The point of this is to pick the things that will perform the best the remainder of this cycle. I have the physical that will be held for a long time. I’m not leveraged like some here who are 150-200% on margin or 7x long like TZ. I’m 100% in and that’s it.

    I’m not “glum”, I’m just thinking strategically on how to play this, especially in light of TZ’s points about the metal outperforming miners at the finale.

  635. Steven

    Fat Boy,

    This is not humor. I gave him the benefit of the doubt when I first sign-up with Gary and even asked him about it but let it go at that.

    This is plain anti-semitism and nothing less. And as DG just pointed out he has made several (and others some time ago) anti-semitic remarks.

    Why else would he call Bernanke by his middle, Hebrew, name? And in his profile he says he lives in Israel. No, this is not humor. This is pathological.

    We obviously do not care for one another. I don’t care for his bigotry or frankly for that matter his investment style. He does make some good points every now and then but as some will recall I had an incredible week last month by fading him (I did it for other reasons but it was clearly in opposition to what he was doing at the time) and told him so.

    This board is abot investing and making money bt unfortnately we has pathological and psychologically damaged people on this board. He even told he when I first asked him about his name “don’t take offense, it’s no big deal”. Sure thing. Hitler said the same thing in the early 1930s.

    DG,

    Thank you for the post. It means alot.

  636. ...at ease

    Jayhawk, when it comes to the C wave, I would put my money where the money will show up. Miners are a gamble at that time, they all have ups and downs and not necessarily will be during the C wave. Unless you have blow or play around money, I would move to metals. I realized the miners were lagging and just don’t want my money where it is obviously lagging. But I am not the expert, just want SHOW ME THE MONEY on this bull ride and C wave!

  637. DG

    Fat Boy: to be fair Steven has it exactly right. SB has posted about the “Jewish conspiracy” and he and I have locked horns before about this stuff in the past. Others have said “he is the most polarizing blogger here.” But you are right that he is smart and contributes. I just wish he’d knock of the Israel and Jew bashing. He’s been better lately but sometimes I guess he can’t stand it and out it pops (You probable missed the Israel dig a few days ago. When he does it it’s not just political. I am also opposed to israeli policies but for him it’s part of the Jews ruining running Washington and ruining the world.)

  639. Steven

    Apologies on that last post. The keyboard did’s get all the letters so it there were words written incorrectly, etc. I’ll check them more thoroughly in the future.

  640. Intern

    DG,

    Haven’t heard you mention using margin? When and where is a reasonable time for margin? Would you use with AGQ or other ultra’s?

    Thanks

  641. DG

    Intern: I will sometimes use margin once I am enough ahead that I don’t risk going deep in the hole on a reaction. I am not on margin now but may when silver breaks out and I am convinced we have started that final run. But then I am more conservative than many here and do not at all say my way is better, but you absolutely must stay within your comfort zone or you will panic out at just the wrong time. If you can’t sleep you are in too deep!

  642. coolkevs

    Kevin Depew at Minyanville today highlighted some interesting Demark Theory developments for the SPX. Indeed, we are in a 1-4 day sell setup going through Wednesday. However, we closed ever so slightly above the disqualified TD Propulsion Up Momentum Level at 1332.34. As it was preceded by a down close, we can qualify this level on Monday with an up open. Price target – SPX 1415.63 – I’ll let you know if we do so.
    SPX needs a new high either this month or May to achieve a MONTHLY sell setup good from June to September. So, it seems like eventually the 1332.34 level will be qualified, we will go up to 1415.63 in the next couple of months and then roll over… kind-of sounds like Gary’s theory, eh? 🙂

  643. Steven

    Last post on my end Shalom.

    Did you even consider that the Fed is acting no differently than what it was set out to do.

    I’m sure you’ve read “The Creature from Jekyll Island”. No Zionists, Jews, Chosen People, etc. were even present.

    Your issue is with the Fed, which is probably the only common ground you and I have, but these old Jewish men who supposedly meet in back rooms to decide the fate of the world had nothing to do with the creation of the Fed and their policies.

    OK, I have to leave now for one of our back room meetings. We are deciding on the fate of the Western Hemisphere. Next week we will decide on the fate of the rest of the world.

  644. David

    Not worth getting into it with Shalom. Plenty of people have called him out on the blog. He is what he is. You’re not going to change him at his age, and he’s not going anywhere.

    He is a sophisticated trader and worth listening to on market-related topics.

    My advice: make some money off him, then contribute to B’nai Brith or something.

  645. Steven

    David,

    LOL! He may have a good insight every now and then but I don’t need him for that and I would gather my returns far outstrip his. Nevertheless I will take your advice and if I ever learn his real name I will make the donation in his name. I will also send a bottle of the finest wine at the next backroom “world domination” meeting from him.

    Good night all…Lila Tov to you Shalom.

  646. fat boy

    dg I admit I do deliberately skip a lot of the politico abusive commentary and conspiracy stuff on the blog and look for the investment analysis, I just don’t want to see people driven away that I might learn from. apologies to Rob L

  647. Edwin

    i really don’t know why anyone would want to go out on a limb with the miners when the main market is in the timing to roll.

    market reversal may come as early as next week.. lets see if the miners can survive that selling pressure.

    buy the metals and hope they diverge as a wealth hedge for inflation + deflation.. evaluate the risk of margin, 2x derivative exposures, junior miners, oh man when the whipsaws are going you’re going to get mashed. it’s a bull but sometimes its best to exercise patience and be conservative. see what’s working for and against you. the best time to get aggresive is during intermediate lows.

    anyways so far so good, nothing gained, nothing lost from last week.

  649. formerAG

    This sideways grind (with significant ups and downs and no resolution to the direction we desire) has been hard to like. I am relatively inexperienced compared to many here, and despite Gary’s accuracy since I have joined I remain jumpy and on the edge of my seat. Sorry Gary…..You are nailing this still I have one foot over the top of the fence…..maybe a knee, my left knee.

    So while I’m waiting for the big breakout I continue to search for more reasons to stay firmly on this bucking bull, and just found another. This shows longterm charts of the dollar and of gold. This just bolsters my confidence that Gary has this nailed, but is just a bit early. I remain strapped in for blastoff to the moon!!!

    http://minefund.com/wordpress/2011/03/28/purchasing-power-of-the-dollar-vs-gold/

  650. ahain1223

    I think we need to keep an open mind about all things. Most of Americas top companies are either under jewish control or catholic/christian control. Money does strange things to even very good people.

  651. Shalom Bernanke

    So I said this… “I agree. Not only that, but Steven can’t even act on his report for 2 1/2 days and still feels compelled.” in order to protect Gary’s project, and Steven makes 6 or 8 posts about anti-semitism, even mentioning Hitler?

    LOL!! Man, I wasn’t even born and neither were you, so quit your crying. In fact, my grandparents and great uncles risked their lives to save your family from Nazis in WWII, so how about some respect instead of now calling us the enemy?

    As far as you outstripping my returns, anybody that points to a move they made last month as proof still isn’t seeing the big picture. I don’t pay attention to your returns, so would not make further claim on that.

    Instead of making a contribution in my name to Bnai Brith, give it straight to Abe Foxman at the ADL. That’s the organization real Americans should learn about, and it’s founding after jewish Leo Frank raped and murdered a little girl (9 yrs old I believe, named Mary Phagan) that worked in his factory. And please put the donation in the name of all us Goyim, not just me.

    If you’re going to go on a tirade and make accusations, expect to get a response. Some of us Goyim know the score!

  652. Shalom Bernanke

    And in case anybody is curious, I didn’t always consider the things I do now. It wasn’t until 2-3 years ago when I started looking into things. That’s why Joe Lieberman wants to shut down the internet! 🙂

    As always, the answers are out there and people should research themselves. It’s still a great country with some liberties (free speech is wavering, if “somebody” gets offended), but we all better use them while we can.

    Here’s something Steven won’t suggest, do your own research and form your own opinions. Learn the facts behind the Russian (jewish) “revolution”, where 40-60 million Christians were murdered (started and funded by jewish bankers in NY when they sent Lev Bronstein, aka Leon Trotsky to Russia with $100+ million. Learn about the USS Liberty, where our “ally” Israel tried to sink an American ship. Know that our “ally” does not extradite jewish criminals to the US. Learn about Rahm Emanuel’s history, and that he volunteered to fight for the IDF in 2006, while we had to ACTIVE wars, then sat in the White House next to Obama. Know that the jewish religion refers to all us non-jews as “Goyim”, or cattle to be exploited by jews. Plenty of material, no doubt.

    I am not calling for genocide, I am encouraging awareness amongst my own. The above are just a few facts, and yet all Steven will do is call names. Dispute the facts, don’t waste time attacking me. It won’t work, I’ve already learned too much. 🙂

    Is anybody still so blind as to believe media, banking, and now the legal system and politics are NOT under jewish control? Watch him, the best he can do is call me names?

    I can’t blame Steven for being so irritable lately, what with the Middle East uprisings in his beloved Israel’s backyard. It should be a warning flag to us American Goyim, his loyalty is not to this country, it’s to Israel like all those politician beholden to AIPAC.

    Look into it yourselves!

    Now, there are plenty of sites with this information out there, but this one is about trading and investing. I will not stand by while attacked repeatedly, so perhaps Steven would like to stay on topic if he doesn’t want these facts brought to light?

    Stay long metals and miners!

  655. marinho

    this does not seem a powerful C wave for the moment. It looks like a repeat of last year for a launch higher into the fall. I maybe wrong but it is a high level consolidation with not too much risk to the downside either.

  656. Shalom Bernanke

    Steven knows about Ilya Ehrenburg:

    http://en.metapedia.org/wiki/Ilya_Ehrenburg

    Seriously, what kind of animal speaks like this:

    ” Break, with your force, the arrogant racial-pride of the Germanic Woman. Take her as your rightful prize of war. Kill, you brave Red Army men. Kill”

    And he requested all his assets be sent to Israel after his death, even though he was Russian.

    How come our media never tells us these facts (hint, they own it)? Better do your own research and fast, they’re scrubbing the internet of these damning details.

    No matter how Steven tries to defend this behavior, most Goyim would think this despicable. There is a reason he doesn’t want us cattle to be aware.

    No, they are not innocent like they need you to believe. Hence the name-calling and labels, intended to shut us up.

  657. Shalom Bernanke

    So the only question with regard to metals and miners for those not already long, is when to buy, now or later this summer? Either way, it’s where people want to be, and it makes no difference to me if we get paid by May or October.

  658. Intern

    SB,

    What do you use to find ATR? Stockcharts?

    With long term positions, you start with wide stops based on ATR and will hold through any early drawdowns, even add?

  659. fat boy

    Can someone give me the gld v gold formula again please
    Gary when you are back maybe you could put it on the prem site
    Thanks

  660. Shalom Bernanke

    Intern,

    Yes, I’ll add into a pullback, as long as I haven’t been stopped out of original position.

    To find the ATR, you can use most charting services like Stockcharts. I use a 20 period ATR, and for the metals/miners trade I used the 20 week ATR, as I expected to hold the trade for an extended period.

    For example, many here own SVM, and IF I were to take a stake today, I’d use the $1.57 avg weekly range as my stop (I typically round up to make calculations easier, so say $1.60). It’s just a general reference point, but seems to work pretty well.

    Figure the total amount of portfolio risk you’re willing to take (say on a $1 million account you’re willing to risk 6%, or 60K, then you’d buy 37,500 shares SVM if that was your only position)

    If one wanted to buy 3 positions, they’d be 2% total portfolio risk per position, or 20K risk each, divided by the ATR or each individual position.

    Some people have higher risk tolerance and are willing to risk more than 6% of portfolio. They can adjust position size higher.

  661. Shalom Bernanke

    And I don’t use trailing stops as they often get triggered into regular and expected pullbacks. I don’t sell winning positions (a good trade) into weakness like this, unless I’m stopped out (at my original stop) because of unforseen events.

    I used to try and “protect profits”, but the best way I’ve found to do that is to let it work, and ignore the wiggles. We all have a tendency to attach too much significance to short term moves, not realizing it’s probably only a “tell” for the next day or two, if that long. 🙂

  662. Intern

    SB,

    I’m coming up with $1.377 as ATR on SVM, weekly basis, I must be off somewhere.

    AGQ is my focus, I’m coming up with weekly ATR of $17.77, is that what you find?

    Do you use margin at all, late in the game like Gary and DG, and margin on ultra’s?

  663. Wes

    SB,

    What happened to your cute little “I’m not anti- Jewish” speech ?

    Take your bigotry somewhere else. There’s no place for it on this blog.

  665. T.J. Rand

    Boys, Boys, Boys….

    This blog should be about investing, and those topics that directly impact investing. So in my book, fiscal and monetary policy, and Federal Reserve actions are fair game. But getting into WHY certain actions are taken, including the religeous, political or ethnic makeup of different sets of decision-makers, begins to move down a slippery slope into personal, political quagmires from which it is difficult for cogent discourse to emerge.

    So whether there are too many (or too few) Jews, Muslims, Christians, Hungarians, British, Indians, Chinese, etc. is immaterial to my understanding of current fiscal and monetary policy, and Federal Reserve actions. And any discussion of whether ethnic makeup is somehow behind fiscal, monetary and fed policy is, to my mind, off limits here. It is immaterial to this blog and is the sort of topic that adds no value.

    So I’d urge everyone to take a deep breath, assume positive intent from other posters, allow for personal differences, and STAY ON TOPIC(s).

  667. Wes

    Not sure who you are calling “boy”, T.J., but you’re either tolerant of bigotry or you’re not.

    Which are you ?

  670. Shalom Bernanke

    Well handled, TJ.

    And Wes, it has nothing to do with bigotry as much as you’d like to label it as such. I don’t hate jews because they are jewish (I could not care less). What I don’t like are jews defending CRIMINAL jews ONLY because they are jewish.

  671. Shalom Bernanke

    Intern,

    I’m coming up with $22 ATR for AGQ ($21.95 to be exact).

    As far as margin, I don’t have any particular aversion to it. I don’t focus on how much I can spend with or without margin. I focus on total portfolio risk.

    For example, some stocks move less than others and if they have a high share price, I might need to use margin just to get to my total expected risk. I don’t like risking too much, but also it’s a mistake to risk too little.

    As far as using margin or not, neither is right or wrong, it’s up to the individual’s risk tolerance. I’d say determine the risk level you can live with, and afterwards determine the appropriate size for the trade.

    Hope it helps. 🙂

  672. Redwine

    Why did God give the Jews two stone tablets of Biblical Commandments?

    Well, first of all, God had offered His Commandments to the Germans. “Impossible!” they replied, “What’s this stuff about thou shalt not kill? It’s natural to kill”. And so they refused them.

    So then God offered them to the French. “What’s this rubbish about thou shalt not commit adultery?” they exclaimed, “It’s in our blood! It’s part of our way of life!”. And so they refused them too.

    So eventually God offered them to the Jews. “How much are they?” asked the Jews. “They’re free” came the reply. “In that case, we’ll take two!”

  673. Shalom Bernanke

    And btw, Steven, this is from an Israeli news source:

    “The five years Volcker spent working with an Israeli team have made him well versed in Israeli matters. Should he be named secretary of the treasury or head of the Financial Council, Israel will have a friend there,” he added.

    and…

    “Born to a Jewish family in New Jersey in 1927, Volcker attended Princeton University, Harvard and the London School of Economics. In January of 2008, he endorsed Barack Obama’s presidency bid and was his closest financial adviser.”

    http://www.ynet.co.il/english/articles/0,7340,L-3619625,00.html

    Nice try, Steven. Hard to believe though, that you made that mistake out of ignorance. How come wikipedia doesn’t mention this? Because they’re working to scrub the facts from history!

  675. catbird

    Shalom,

    Regarding how you use ATR…

    Assuming I have a big existing position in AGQ from way back (say 1,000 shares) and I wanted to add 500 more shares on Monday at the close, and if AGQ is at $225 at the close (big assumption) I would enter a conditional sell order on those 500 shares if AGQ drops $22 (sell 500 shares at $203?)

  677. Intern

    Catbird,

    Curious what you did with your AGQ a few days ago when you thinking of selling some to protect gains?

    Why not sell off a bit, scale out. That way, you’ve got a home run and save a chunk for a possible grand slam?

  678. Ben

    Tax Treatment of AGQ.

    Here’s my take (I tried to find all recent comments, and didn’t see my take which is the only one which makes sense to me).

    1) fill out info for K-1. Easy in TurboTax.

    2) use the worksheet ProShares sent called “2010 Sales Schedule”

    In #2, the gains/losses from the K-1 are used to adjust the sales basis for the purpose of the Schedule D report (which means your 1099B from your broker will now jive with your SchD shares sold and total proceeds).

    How taxation differs from straight stock buys/sells is *timing* — if you own partnership shares year after year, you pay tax each year, and it’s only when you finally sell that, by adjusting your sales basis by the previously reported gains, do you finally reconcile your true gain/loss. The partnership timing can also affect your long term/short term distribution if you hold between 11 and 13 months.

    As some alluded to, it all works out in the end, but this is specifically how I think it works out.

    It is important, I think, or the Schedule D to jive with your 1099B statment; otherwise, I think you’ll be getting a call from the IRS.

  679. pimaCanyon

    SB,

    I don’t know whether I will look into all the things you mentioned or not.

    But here’s the thing: Even if they are all true, does that make the Jewish faith and ALL Jewish people EVIL?

    Someone commits a murder. The murderer is a “Christian”. Therefore all Christians are evil. ???

    Just because someone who commits an evil act belongs to a group does not mean that everyone who belongs to that group is evil.

  680. pimaCanyon

    fat boy,

    Just look at current price of GLD, multiply by 10 and compare it to the price of gold. To get a percentage:

    (GLD X 10) / gold

    But you need the price of gold and GLD from the same point in time.

    So you could go to a chart of both, say an hourly chart, pick an hour that’s during normal trading hours, say 10am eastern. Take the high price on the 10am bar on the GLD chart and the high price at the 10am bar on the gold chart. Then apply the formula.

    Once you have the ratio, you’d just work backwards to go from gold to GLD.

    For example if you want to know what GLD will be when gold hits 1410, you would divid 1410 by 10 (giving 141) and multiple the result by the number you got when you calculated the ratio (above formula)

  681. Ben

    Tax treatment con’t

    To correct my earlier comment, it’s the COST BASIS which is adjusted, not the sales basis.

  682. pimaCanyon

    fat boy,

    The caveat is it may not come out exact, but it will be close.

    The other way to do it is if Gary is using a bar on a chart of gold for stop placement, find that same bar on GLD chart and use that. The problem there is that sometimes weird things can happen to GLD right at the open, and gold trades nearly 24 hours a day whereas GLD does not.

  683. catbird

    Intern,

    I “accidentally” sold about 25% of my AGQ last week. (I set a trade trigger to sell when GLD got to 137.70, which I thought was the equivalent of gold hitting $1410).

    I was wrong! I should have set it at $137.

    Anyway, no biggie, I still have a big core, I booked a little profit, and I will not be shy about adding more if/when silver breaks above $38.

  685. fat boy

    Thanks SB PC
    I think with the cautionary catbird tale I will leave a mental stop at 1410 and hard at 1385 until we get back to one hard stop….
    I’m going check out how Gary is doing…
    Right on TJ rand

  686. catbird

    Intern,

    My plan has always been to use Gary’s stop, and to exit 100% if it hits.

    That’s what I meant to do last week, but I accidentally set it too tight.

    So you can thank me when AGQ gaps way up Monday morning…. ; )

  687. catbird

    Correction–

    I was going to start by exiting 25% at Gary’s more conservative stop, and I would exit the rest if Gary’s lower stop was hit. That was my plan.

  688. catbird

    By the way, I think we subscribers should refrain from disclosing the details of Gary’s nightly updates in the comments.

    It really devalues our subscriptions. Gary deserves all the subscribers he can get.

    Let’s not give lurkers an excuse not to subscribe.

  690. Steven

    The 2004 biography by Joseph B. Treaster, Paul Volcker: The Making of a Financial Legend, says Volcker attended a Lutheran church on Sundays with his mother, while his father went to an Episcopalian church. Sounds Jewish to me. I suppose his biography was scrubbing the facts as well.

    You want to discuss this any further take me up on my offer and meet me in person. I’m on the East Coast. We will figure out the logistics.

  692. Intern

    at ease,

    Despite the warnings around here, sounds like you use options and must be doing well by them?

    Self-taught or did you learn with a broker?

  696. Gary

    There’s a new champion in town.

    Out totaled the second place lifter by almost 100 lbs. and out lifted the next heavier weight class by 25 lbs.

    Now I remember why I put my self through all the pain of training day after day 🙂

  700. hkc

    Congrats! Gary, great job. Now I hope your predictions on the C-wave will also be outguessed at least 100 points higher on gold!

  701. jeff

    good artical about the decline of the us

    dhttp://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/cash-is-trash-with-bernanke-at-the-helmollar

  705. catbird

    This is sad but you kind of have to laugh:

    I was watching an NFL game from 1995 on YouTube just now. Saw a TV commercial for a Subway 6″ meatball marinara sub.

    Price?

    $1.69.

    In 1995. Not 1965.

    Nope, no currency debasement goin’ on here, folks.

  707. TommyD

    Gary,

    Congratulations for the big lift. What was your total weight-lift, I don’t know the technical term, pull?

    Is it a new world??? close???

    Tell us please.
    Tom

  711. Jennifer

    Catbird:

    You realize you shouldn’t have set a hard stop for 1410 equivalent at all right? It was supposed to only be a sell signal if we closed beneath it, not if it got hit intra-day or overnight.

  715. Gary

    I made personal records in both lifts.

    Snatched 102 kg/224 lbs.

    Clean & jerk 121 kg/268 lbs

    I’m 11 kilos away from a world record in the snatch and 22 kilos away in the Clean & jerk.

    Next year after I get another year of training I may have a shot at world records.

  717. TommyD

    Gary,
    Those are some good numbers.. Will the event be held in Savanna next your as well?

    Side note, I went grocery shopping today, I carried out to the car 5 bags in my left hand and 4 bags in my right. I waddled to the car thinking how you did. I got home and noticed I squished, flat, the bread and hotdog buns. GRRR

  718. jeff

    through my little 38 lb boy in the air a few times last night. ill be paying for that for at least a month. i new better

  720. Eamonn

    Is there a clear correlation between the Buying on Weakness and Selling on Strength securities and their subsequent market performance (short term)? Has anyone studied this?

  721. ...at ease

    Wowwwwheeuuu! That’s great Gary!
    To the victor goes the spoils.
    Well earned, Congratuations!
    Good to confirm our convictions in following a true WINNER!

  722. Shalom Bernanke

    Gary,

    Congratulations on achieving what you set out to do!

    Tommy D,

    Thanks for the rys2sense website, I’ll look into it. Seems I’ve seen his youtube channel before.

    catbird,

    That is correct, and how I would use the ATR on an additional 500 AGQ. The ATR just gives us a likely range to expect, based on recent prices. And the meatball sub from $1.69 to $5 bucks? Amazing that anybody listens to a word the Fed says. But they don’t lie right to our faces!

    Pima,

    I don’t think everybody of any kind is the same. Not sure how you came away with that from what I said. I don’t like people that defend criminals just because they have something in common.

    Steven,

    Why would you want to get together with somebody you accuse of being racist? 🙂

  723. San Diego Jack

    That is great Gary, Congratulations!

    Was this an Age type of competition that you won?

    You’ll be fifty-two when you go for the record, and I am just happy that my waistband is smaller in size than my age (53).

  726. ...at ease

    Intern,
    Self taught from books and testing the waters every step of the way.
    I find if I understand my costs and why I am buying I do better than if someone just gives me a tip to follow. Those usually end up costing me big money. Best thing I learned to do with GLD was buy deep in the money at least 3 months out (known uptrend) works for me with GLD. I won’t venture beyond that for now. Buy and hold til profit and then sell.

  729. DG

    Great job Gary! It’s very satisfying to really work hard towards something and then nail it. Very impressive. And no injury to boot. Great stuff!

  733. Steven

    Just for the record, I posted these comments this morning and somehow they were deleted. I am not continuing the conversation any further but wanted to re-post these comments.

    Whatever your name is Bernanke,

    Thank you for your responses. You have just PROVEN BEYOND ANY DOUBT to everyone on this board exactly my point – you are pathological and anti-semitic. I guess this is what happens when a bigot gets called out.

    I’m not going to respond to any of your points here because they are a bunch of intentionally made up stories by people just like you, anonymously posted to a website, to degrade another people. I also said my last post was just that I think people are tiring of the non-investment discussion.

    However, I will offer to meet you in person and debunk each one of your garbage facts / hallucinations that never happened and expose your absolute ignorance. It is most definitely a waste of time of my behalf because you have a certain mindset that will not be changed but I will always make an effort to educate the uneducated & ignorant. You are both.

    And I find it difficult to believe that you just became a bigot & anti-semitic in just the past 2-3 years unless of course I’m talking to a teenager.

    As for the investment comment, I made a comment about silver embedding last month and you obnoxiously responded. When I asked why you responded so rudely to a post that wasn’t even directed to you you said not to take things so seriously. Basically the same thing you told me many months ago when I first asked why you called yourself Shalom Bernanke. You just don’t like being called out on your B.S. Otherwise I would not have discussed our respective investment styles or performances.

    You once again interjected rather obnoxiously into a post I made yesterday (again, not directed at you) for no reason whatsoever. You were not even correct as I traded AFTER that post so the information would have been helpful.

    Thank you to your parents if they saved lives of anyone, as all life is equal, Jewish or not, even though they they were NOT my relatives as they lived nowhere near those areas.

    More importantly you deserve no credit or respect for what they did. Unlike your ancestors, I have no doubt you would have been part of the Hitler youth.

  734. St. Deluise

    I hate to pile on but I have to agree- the “Shalom Bernanke” account from “Israel” is transparently anti-semetic and uncalled for and your recent comments seem to have confirmed it. Just because you can “justify” that a lot of what Israel has done is messed up doesn’t excuse racism or bigotry.

    Besides, do you really need help clowning on Bernanke? You have a much better sense of humor than that and there’s literally dozens of other aspects about his life ripe for ridicule that have the added bonus of not being classless and gross.

    I expect that kind of stuff in the zero hedge comments or at the slope of hope, but not here.

  736. Mr.Mom

    Anyone buying bullion at these prices? I was thinking if the dollar was going to have a monster rally sometime this year what’s the point of buying silver if it is going to be lower…

  739. Shalom Bernanke

    I find Steven “rude and obnoxious”, like he finds me. So what? Not only that, he hasn’t talked about anything else, or helped anybody else on the site. Non-stop whining. 🙂

  741. David

    Congratulations Gary! Your consistant hard work paid off!

    Enjoy your celebration… i.e. burrito! AND margarita!

    And have a good flight home!

  742. bamster

    Congratulations Gary,

    You’ve made all us 50 year olds proud today.

    Folks, lets take Gary’s achievement today and pay it forward.

  744. MrMiyagi

    MrMom,
    Your question about who’s buying bullion at these prices; I bid on 12 separate 1oz Silver Eagle coins on eBay (didn’t really want them).
    The winning bids ranged from 42.55$ to 58.88$ US. Averaging around 47$ US.
    By contrast, at the end of last week, they were averaging around 43$ US from the ones I looked at.
    My bids were in the 28$ range, you never know…

  746. Brian

    If people want to stop SB from making what they deem polarizing comments, they should put the facts out that instantly prove him wrong, and it would be over in an instant.

    Calling him bigoted and racist does more to incite the continuation by getting others to pile on with no worthy thought.

  747. formerAG

    I just checked out the results of your lifting Gary. Very impressive indeed. Only 1 guy your age lifted more than you did in the snatch. Only 2 guys, both considerably heavier than you lifted more in the clean and jerk. It is apparent that you are a high achiever, and I am lucky to have found you to be my advisor.

  748. catbird

    Kind of OT, but:

    I just watched the documentary “Inside Job.”

    Was anyone else disappointed that they portrayed Barney Frank as one of the “good guys”? WTF?

  752. Shalom Bernanke

    catbird,

    I saw that movie a few weeks ago, and agree about Barney Fwank. He’s a criminal, who’s boyfriend worked at either Fannie or Freddie before the bust, but of course there is no mention of that.

    The movie pointed out only the most obvious offenders, insinuating that the rest weren’t also a part of the problem but instead the solution. Barney Fwank fought hard to get loans to unqualified people. Half-truths like this movie serve to distract and mislead. Uncover just enough truth to make it believable, then steer the viewer to the desired conclusion.

    guy,

    Thanks for your support! 🙂

  753. don

    Anyone here has any experience starting a hedge fund? or incubator hedge fund?

    DG..i guess long back you posted in comment section that you are in process of doing so..i hv few questions around it..would be great if I could talk to you

  755. Beksachi

    Mainstream media reporting: Takeaway—> “Unlike 2008, this time oil, precious metals will drop ahead of stocks”

    Clip on Yahoo ticker:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/harry-dent-major-crash-coming-stocks-commodities-already-20110331-080715-415.html;_ylt=Auuvgzpk93he9AU1vRP4Xbveba9_;_ylu=X3oDMTFoMGRmb21rBHBvcwMyBHNlYwNjb250ZXh0dWFsLWRhaWx5dGlja2VyBHNsawNoYXJyeWRlbnRtYWo-

    Not sure whether to take this as a good sign (i.e. mainstream will get it wrong).

    Any comments folks?

  756. Beksachi

    Well done Gary on the weightlifting competition!

    (Someone mentioned you do Judo- this explains the “zen like” capabilities you exuded a few weeks ago while I was freakin out. Many thanks!)

  757. Redwine

    “Champions aren’t made in the gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them — a desire, a dream, a vision.”
    Muhammad Ali

    Gary, you’re a champion.

  758. TommyD

    SB,
    [Half-truths like this movie serve to distract and mislead. Uncover just enough truth to make it believable, then steer the viewer to the desired conclusion.]

    Getting to the truth is never easy and in this case, it may be impossible to ever get to the bottom. Too many high-rollers that control that truth.

    We are, mostly, left to speculate, theorize, BS one another,, or wait and hope people step forward and spill their guts out.

    A lot of the bad guys wear some great suits though…

  760. n1tro

    MrMom,

    I’m still buying bullion. Even if it drops, I’d buy more. Long term for physical is the plan. I am one of those who actually “backs up the truck” when silver drops and use borrowed “trucks” ie. leverage to load up. 🙂

  762. DG

    Don: I am ignorant about starting hedge funds. I am partnering with a years-old existing fund and just provide the stock market savvy. You are certainly welcome to post a question but I’ll probably not know any more than you about whatever it is.

    Steven: Drop me an email. Go to my blog profile and click on “my website.”

  764. 86d4life

    REAL tough starts between the ears. Good for you Gary. To be pushing back the envelope at this age is really fantastic. Just shows how much life there really is to be lived and what a shame we get so little time to live it.

    SB-Thanks for all the positives that you have contributed to this board. I, for one, am further ahead because of it.

    I think it really sucks to see the members of this board fighting amongst themselves.