Cycle low

I’m fairly confident gold has put in its daily cycle low. This will probably be the last chance to enter before the C-wave finale starts the parabolic run to the top. Stops have been raised. Risk is now about as low as it’s going to get. 

I will open the 15 month special one more time for any late comers that want to ride this final run. Enter smt15 in the promotional code box and click continue to link to the special offer page.


Here is the link to get you to the subscription page.

361 thoughts on “Cycle low

  1. Jayhawk

    Gary-

    Just got an email from my buddy who works for a local trader/fund. It was your report from yesterday cut & pasted into an email format. He gets all types of stuff forwarded to him from his Wall St contacts (dozens a day). When he saw it, he recalled your name as someone I had brought to his attention and asked “is this the guy you follow?”.

    Anyway, there are people still blasting your reports out there for everyone to share. You may want to look into that format where people can’t cut & paste or select/copy.

    I’ve seen some of these sites where I try and cut and paste the company’s contact info for my database and it wont let me. Sounds like TZ would know more about this.

  2. Sandy101

    Gary

    Tremendous series of calls. Despite being a sub for over 6 months, I was not ready to believe your call on the dollar. To me, it just did not look like a possibility.

    Hope everybody is enjoying the green today:)

  3. MrMiyagi

    I mentioned yesterday about disabling right click functions on webpages, it doesn’t prevent you from printing but it’ll discourage most.

  4. Gary

    guy,
    You can cancel your monthly and buy the 15. It will kick in when your monthly expires.

    If you did a yearly then it’s not worth it unless you want to add 15 months on the back of your yearly.

    You would have to cancel your yearly and do it in the website not at Paypal.

    If you cancel in Paypal you will break the API link and your account will be locked out.

  5. Hot Rod

    Gary,

    Thanks a lot for your daily report (am a recently started subscriber).

    I just tonight found this Blog (off the free site) and see you post regularly. Don’t know how you do it.

    You must feel like a broken record here. A lot of the questions posed as well as your answers are all seen in the daily subscriber report.

    My question for you is in preparation for the end of this C wave that seems to be on the near horizon.

    When do you typically make the decision to exit your full set of positions? Is this during the trading day or after the trading day (sell at open)?

    I certainly would like to know ASAP once you are “out” so I can assess what I will do ;), and for sure it would help me to know mid day versus after the close for obvious reasons.

    Is there a way to set up an RSS feed or an automated way to get an e-mail when you do a daily subscriber post – without you having to do extra work?

    It would be greatly appreciated and would save me from having to click refresh a million times.

    Keep up the good, objective, work.

    Thanks.

  6. flaunt

    I would at least start putting my website URL on the chart images, kind of like a watermark. That way everybody will know where they came from even if someone decides to rip them off.

    You can control whether another website steals your work, but it’s tough to prevent individuals from sharing the information. It’s the internet though so there’s only so much you can do.

  7. Movax

    There is no way to stop people from cutting and pasting, if they have even a clue how to use a computer. Besides even if you could they can just simply forward the calls: “He says to buy, sell, hold, add leverage.” etc.

    Right click disabled? Try CTRL-A CTRL-C, open Word, CTRL-V

  8. guy

    Gary,

    you’re worth every penny ten times!!!
    don’t care to have 3 months extra, allready happy to have you guiding me trough the forest.

  9. Aaron

    Gary, I think the easiest thing to do is to just stamp every chart with a watermark. That should at the very least protect the charts from being stolen.

  10. Gary

    Keep in mind you can only add if your subscription was created in the new website system.

    If you are still on the old subscription and were transferred in on Jan. 1st then you will have to wait till your old subscription expires before one can add.

  11. Jayhawk

    Regarding silver’s 20 MA. Price closed under it by a hair yesterday, but a true violation according to the guys in this book-

    http://www.amazon.com/Trade-Like-ONeil-Disciple-Trading/dp/0470616539

    is to wait until the following day and IF price moves under the low of the previous day then a MA violation occurred. It’s more a ballpark zone to watch price action… So today’s price looks like a nice bounce off the 20. I looked at $silver on StockCharts and /SI.

    SI

    Right now, it’s bumping into the 10 and finding a small amt of resistance.

  12. Hot Rod

    I agree that there ultimately is nothing you can do about sharing – however you can make it more difficult than super easy and that is what should be concentrated on to a degree.

    People will flock to quality and will pay for it when the info is timely.

    If people are trading and making investment decisions on this info, they will be paying. THose that are not are probably gold bugs with a hobby.

  13. Jayhawk

    That blog posted on the previous post (http://likesmoney.dojispace.com/) looks like a combination of Gary & DOC. He or she uses the same terminology & language. (in a bull market, surprises come to the upside, “folks”–Gary like to say “folks” all the time.

    I noticed when you try and load the site, it’s not really working now. Must be desperately trying to take it down now that they are busted. Not one comment on any of the blog posts nor a lot of hits on the site.

  14. pimaCanyon

    Gary,

    From this post it sounds like you’re expecting the C wave top to occur during THIS daily cycle (assuming the low on 3/15 was indeed the end of the last cycle), right?

    Is it possible that PM’s will make the C wave high in the daily cycle that follows the next daily cycle low?

  15. Le Fou

    All my miners beating AGQ today:

    GPL Up 4.96% 2,187,639
    AGQ Up 4.34% 457,034
    AG Up 5.74% 569,107
    EXK Up 6.21% 1,438,203

    AGQ is about 60% of portfolio. It’s my hope/belief that the miners will keep up with AGQ, and perhaps one of them will outperform handsomely.

  16. ALEX

    Le FOU

    I was just thinking that same thing, and didnt see your post, I was writing while you posted πŸ™‚

    But at least they’ve gone up a bit in the 5 minutes that you posted to the time I did.

  17. ALEX

    SILVERMAN

    Thx for that!!- I am in all too , and am happy for everyone ( I am not in CDE, but am wondering why not, at this point.)

  18. Silverman

    Alex,

    You seem like the type who can take some ribbing (and apologies in advance if not) but your pic looks a little bit like “Attack of the Ant People” πŸ™‚

    Just feeling a bit giddy today as my portfolio recovers from earlier in the week. Sorry πŸ™‚

  19. oa92000

    “Sandy101 said…
    Gary
    Tremendous series of calls. Despite being a sub for over 6 months, I was not ready to believe your call on the dollar. To me, it just did not look like a possibility.”

    Sandy, what do you see?

  20. wingman

    Alex,

    It looks like you spied on my portfolio (although I’ve got a touch of RVMID.OB, GGCRF.PK, and SOHAF.PK added in to that mix as well) πŸ™‚

  21. Jayhawk

    That’s mine too Alex, except I’ve got a large chunk of SVM. I’m actually kind of disappointed in this one and am a bit to heavy in this one vs. AG, EXK, GPL. I may move some out.

  22. Jayhawk

    NY Fed confirms intervention in currency markets

    Buy AP Photo Reprints

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — The New York Federal Reserve Bank confirmed that it intervened in currency markets on Friday for the first time in more than a decade.

    The disclosure came a day after the Group of Seven major industrialized nations pledged in a statement to join in a coordinated effort to weaken the Japanese yen. The yen has surged in the last week to post-war record levels following the Japanese earthquake and tsunami.

    A spokesman at the New York Fed, which operates as the agent of the U.S. Treasury in currency operations, confirmed that it had intervened. The last time the U.S. government intervened in currency markets was the fall of 2000 when it sold dollars and bought euros to bolster the fledgling European currency.

    The spokesman refused to provide any details on the amounts of the intervention or what currencies were involved.

    A stronger yen threatened to deal another blow to the fragile Japanese economy by depressing the country’s exports.

    In morning trading in New York on Friday, a dollar was buying 81.30 yen, up from 79.05 yen late Thursday and moving off its postwar low of 76.32 yen hit on Wednesday. Before the earthquake struck, one dollar bought 83.02 ye

  23. Jayhawk

    SVM trades in chunks. Has mild days like this, then a huge day. I like it still, just have too much and may spread that $ around more.

  24. ALEX

    SILVERMAN

    I left for 5 minutes and come back to that!! hehe

    I definitely can take a joke…prob!

    i was thinking of changing that pic anyways. It New England and we had a rough winter, but today is 70 degrees!! and P.M.’s are GREEN!

    Time to change the dreary winter (ant people) pic πŸ™‚

  25. ALEX

    Wingman and Jayhawks

    I am heaviest in EXK, AG, GPL (believe it or not-GPL!!scary to some, but I got in GPL @ $2.5 and $2.7, and recently said if it ever fills that $3.50 gap, I’m loading up-and it just did a “close enough” this week πŸ™‚

    I hold others too, but honestly , EXK and GPL were up 10% daily on that last run. Thats good moves.

  26. David

    I’m sure it was an honest mistake. He just accidentally cut and pasted Gary’s report into his own document… happens to me all the time πŸ˜‰

    In all seriousness, it’s good to see credit go to the right guy.

  27. wingman

    Alex,

    Those are also my three heaviest positions, with AG almost twice as heavy as EXK and GPL. Started buying it in the $6 range. IMO it’s the best of breed for silver miners. Purest silver producer going (over 95% silver, almost no base metal credits). Also has the best chance to get from small/med. size producer to major producer (15-20+ million oz/yr) than anyone else out there now.
    I’m all options on SLW. April 43’s, which I will roll into May throughout next week. Nice liquidity and tight spreads makes it easy to get in and out and also to sell calls against it and pick up some cash if need be during the down moves like we just endured.

  28. henev11

    hey folks …i know gary has addressed this ad nauseum but the dollar is tanking big time intra day and PMs should be goin ballistic ….some thing is up and its not that everyone is burned from the drawdown and gun shy to get back in

  29. David

    Give it time. The market may be watching the Nov lows for a bounce. If those are decisively broken all he’ll breaks loose.

  30. ALEX

    Wingman

    I agree, I have done due diligence on everything ( I cant invest as confidently if not)and AG is THE pure silver producer!Good future I.M.H.O.

    I also do T.A. and on a wkly, CDE is a great big (3yr/daily chart) CUP/HANDLE with high volume breakout.

    I am thinking of selling AXU and buying here. BUT , axu looks like a reverse H&S with a 412 min price target. HMM

    Going to lunch to clear my head πŸ™‚

  31. Shalom Bernanke

    Excuse me on that last one, I had to check to verify, and my additions were on Monday and Tuesday.

    New York,

    If we don’t pull back I’m already pretty longed up. I no longer hope for a pullback, but rather plan to take advantage if it occurs. It depends on how much you own already, but if I weren’t already long I wouldn’t try to get too fancy on entries and risk missing the move.

    Even if we have some lumps ahead of us, it’s something we have to manage through proper sizing. We’ve already seen several bulls get shaken out of the long side (Turd Ferguson, Hammy, etc). I just remind myself that even if the C-wave doesn’t materialize as we expect, we’ll see much higher prices in the future. We could darn near max out and shut down computers entirely, even ride through D-waves, and still make a boat load. The important thing is to be in, and with size that won’t make you freak through drawdowns so you can continue to let the bull work, IMO.

  32. wingman

    Alex,

    I noticed the same on AXU and added about a week before what turned out to be that nasty daily cycle correction, so I’m still a little under water on it (10%ish). I haven’t looked at CDE as I focus more on the up and comers, but perhaps I will do so. Thanks!

  33. Benjamin

    I added a chunk of AGQ and some SIL APR 25 calls for the bounce play… spread was bad but still, they’re already green… thinking if I should add some /YI… would do it if it pulls back a bit to ~34.54… currently at about 1.5-1.6x

  34. Bill

    I subscribed a few weeks back, have been lurking/reading. Have not bought the recommended portfolio yet. Thinking about doing so this afternoon, but the Japan nuclear thing gives me pause…a lot can happen over the weekend. What do you good people think I should do?
    Cheers, Bill.

  35. Mark

    Bill,

    Gary gave you advice. Take it. Add at least a partial position. When Gary says the train is leaving, that’s all you need to hear….

  36. New York

    Shalom, gotcha. Good point, and I’ve done just that. I had a little bit left over that I just put into SIL today at market so as not to get to fancy and miss any moves.

    However, what about stops? I’ve put some trailing stops in but i’m worried about getting shaken off this bull?

    Any suggestions? Should I also put in buy triggers??

  37. Movax

    I don’t care, ’cause I don’t own it, but oil looks like a head and shoulders. Doesn’t fit with the dollar thesis though, so it is probably not valid here.

  38. ...at ease

    Can someone help direct me on how to place stops on the holdings. I assume I look back at what the others (SLW, SLV, SIL and AGQ) were when GLD was at the designated stop? Am I on track?
    Thanks…

  39. blammo

    Bill, scale into your position.

    Whatever total amount you intend to buy, add 25% today, and add incrementally later. If we go down Monday you can add again. You know where the stop-loss is.

    Portfolio recommendations (I prefer picking my own juniors rather than letting SIL do it for me):

    AGQ
    SLW
    AG
    EXK
    AXU
    GPL

    Do your own diligence but this is the fast track. Juniors are volatile. Your metal (no pun intended) *will* be tested. Gary (and many others on here) is an assuring voice though and will help you think rationally during those stressful times.

    Good luck.

  40. Shalom Bernanke

    NY,

    I don’t use trade triggers because I’m by the computer, but if I couldn’t be here I’d use buy limits placed below current prices on the actual vehicle I was looking to buy.

    In fact, I still have an open order on SIL to buy more at $24.73, but will have to revise that higher next week (possibly $25.10 or so).

    The main focus is to be sure to have positions, and sizes that let you stay focused on the longer term potential. Drawdowns aren’t fun, but with proper sizing they are opportunities instead of a disaster.

  41. New York

    at ease, you could use a trailing stop which let’s put in sell orders that ‘trail’ the CURRENT trading price by say 10%…

    Or simply calculate the percent drop from here to gary’s suggested stop for GLD and then do the calculatins from there…

  42. pimaCanyon

    Bill,

    You don’t have to add a full position now. You can add some today. If we go lower, add more on a pullback. Don’t add too much that you can’t take the loss if we break the recent low. As we go higher and the profit on your position gets larger, continue to add on the way up.

    ‘course, the downside to this approach is that you’d have a larger profit if you just go all in today (assuming we don’t go lower than where we are now).

    The main thing is: whatever amount you decide to add, just be sure you will be comfortable riding out a drawdown to where Gary has our stops. You don’t want to look at the drawdown when we’re only halfway to that stop, freak out and start selling your positions, only to see the market head higher after you’ve dumped part or all of your position.

  43. Silverman

    For those that didn’t follow David’s link, here’s what Peter Brimelow said regarding Murphy’s plagiarism of Gary’s newsletter:

    “An earlier version of this column published on March 17 contained statements attributed to Michael Murphy that in large part should have been attributed to Gary Savage. Murphy has since acknowledged that his newsletter mistakenly reproduced some of Savage’s content. The column has been corrected.”

  44. blammo

    PSLV is tricky. With its increasing premium to NAV it actually follows silver pretty loosely. I own it but prefer AGQ.

    People like PSLV because of Sprott and the fact that they supposedly own the actual silver while AGQ is a derivative.

    But AGQ is more accurate and and it some senses is less risky (even at 2x silver) because it doesn’t have the built in NAV premium.

    Of course you are charged a premium to buy the metal as well.

  45. pimaCanyon

    “mistakenly reproduced some of Savage’s content”

    what a complete ASS! Mistakenly reproduced? What a douchebag, a crook, a lying liar, and a thief with no remorse at all. You’d think the least the slimeball could do is acknowledge that he screwed up and apologize. But no, it was “mistakenly reproduced”.

  46. blammo

    I recall Moosignal had issues with forgery and the offending firm had to refund memberships.

    I also remember a guy being fired from TheStreet.com for forging someone else material.

    Your reputation is all you have.

  47. ...at ease

    What was it Bill from Japan said, right before he left our postings for higher and safer ground? All you have is your family and your integrity.

    Guess those who stole Gary’s work have no integrity, hope they have family.

    Bill from Japan, our prayers are with you and yours.

  48. ...at ease

    Email update: Gold Up Over $15 on Currency Intervention
    Gold climbed for the third straight day on the New York Spot, rising over $15 as of 10:30 a.m PT. Today, the Group of Seven nations agreed to intervene jointly in the foreign-exchange market to try to halt the rapid appreciation of the yen, while the dollar headed for a weekly decline against a basket of six major currencies.

  49. DG

    Bill: If you listen to Gary (and me) you will NOT buy individual miners. They are very volatile, can blow up from bad news, and should be traded by very experienced traders. As you are late to the party and newish at this (if I understand correctly) stick with AGQ and maybe SLW and SIL. The right idea is to be in for the big move and not squeeze every possible percentage out of it. If you miss it because you freaked when a miner blew up you’ll have missed a great opportunity. At least this is how i see it.

  50. ...at ease

    …remember I told you all, I had several other subscriptions to stock advisor services. I am laughing as I have ignored them all since I joined SMT with Gary and now all the stop and sell orders are coming in to sell asap. So glad to be with Gary SMT!

  51. Beksachi

    Folks,

    Saw some chatter about PSLV vs SLV.

    I own PSLV and went into it *thinking* it’s closer to owning physical and far better than SLV (in case of a derivatives/paper money etc blow up – what ever that means). Plus it’s Canadian.

    Yes, PSLV has high premiums and so it won’t track silver’s daily price consistently. Here is the link for daily PSLV NAV/premium….when it’s close to 20%, I have seen it under perform significantly relative to SLV

    http://www.sprottphysicalsilvertrust.com/NetAssetValue.aspx

    And then there are internet sites that “supposedly” expose other problems with PSLV.

    http://kiddynamitesworld.com/pslv-sprott-files-to-sell-sold-to-you-sucka/

    Who to believe?

    Personally, I am going to keep my small core PSLV for long term but any new powder I just direct it to AGQ/SIL since I beleive Gary’s cycle thesis that once the C-wave is done, there will be a D-wave and hence, it will be time to get back into US $.

  52. jeff

    Blam. My first sil. 100 miners I can just feel them digging away

    Wasn’t I nice to buy them after every one else

  53. wmp

    At Ease:

    Another response to your “stops” question: Some brokers provide an ability to place contingency orders. E-Trade does. In that case you can place a sell order for a certain stock “IF” GLD (in our case) hits a certain level. You might want to check that outwith yours.

  54. ...at ease

    thanks all, I will see what works best for each account. I am just glad any traveling I am doing, It will be over the weekends. I hope this C wave crests fast and furious!

  55. Poly

    GDXJ up 3.76%
    SIL up 2.8% not far from day high
    SLW up 2.7%

    SPY up 0.28%

    Let’s not get greedy, I would say miners are having a fine day.

  56. New York

    Shalom,

    So… are you using ‘mental’ stops? I don’t have the luxury of sitting by the computer… or rather staying focused on my trading account.

    I set up some trailing stops but wonder if that may shake me off the bull using the trailing stop I set.

    Right now I have 10% trails on.. I’m thinking I should just use a stop limit??

  57. Otis

    Regarding stops, I believe pimaCanyon mentioned setting trade alerts that would send an email or text enabling you to set it above your mental stop and allowing you time to watch the price action before acting.

  58. YesLetsDiscuss

    Hello my fellow trackers, I’ve been an SMT subscriber for couple years now, and just like some of you, it took some convincing to act on what Gary says even though it was quite clear what he says makes sense.

    Anyway, my first time posting. Hope to post regularly here. Glad to see all this discussion taking place…it kept me going earlier this week. I completely ignored my account and thought about April – that is, the month, not some girl πŸ™‚

    Really hoping there is no visiting the recent lows and we see some more spurt early next week.

  59. Shalom Bernanke

    I base my stop areas on the volatility of the vehicle, then figure the size to trade. SIL for example has an average range each week over the last 20 weeks of roughly $2.40/share

    Let’s use a hypothetical 100K account, where we only want to risk 10%, or 10k. This would give us 4,100 shares (rounded down) with the $2.40 stop. One can adjust the amount of room they give for a stop depending on where they think we are in the cycle. If I wanted to add at higher prices or after a few day runup, I’d give it more room for a stop and adjust the size lower to allow more wiggle room.

    You have to discover your own risk tolerance to find a comfortable stop area for you, then adjust the size accordingly, but that is a decent place to start.

    The point is to figure not on how much cash you have to work with, but a reasonable assessment of total risk being taken.

    Likewise, in my day trades or positions I expect to only own overnight, I need less wiggle room so will use a tighter stop with more shares. Trailing stops don’t offer much advantage over regular ones, IMO, and as things get more volatile to the upside are more likely to get triggered (and at a disappointing price). This is why I have not moved my stops higher since my first entries, and the reason I haven’t been shaken off the bull when it pulls back.

  60. YesLetsDiscuss

    Does anyone else see the triangular consolidation and continuation patter in silver starting from 8am today? That should take us to $36 in a short while. Wondering if I should buy here as it breaks out, but probably won’t as I am fully loaded.

  61. Shalom Bernanke

    I also prefer mental stop levels over actual stop orders which convert to market once triggered. One can get some horrendous fills selling into down movement.

    That doesn’t mean I never use hard stops, but only if I won’t be around. My goal is to get into strong hand status.

  62. Shalom Bernanke

    The nice thing about longer term trades is that we don’t have to get into everything all at once, as long as we stay focused on the plan and force ourselves to buy even when it’s looking like it might go lower.

  63. Shalom Bernanke

    Anytime, Silverman. And those figures are just a general guideline to get an idea of what kind of volatility to expect. A trader can always reduce the # shares owned and give them much more room, but this is one common method.

  64. ALEX

    Was watching CDE all day

    Volume just kept coming in. On a 3 month daily chart it looks Excellent , and it started to sell off at the close , So I bought it.

    If you look at the 1day/ 5minute chart, you will see someone grabbed 1.5 million at the close…

    …That WASN’T ME πŸ™‚

    Shout out to yesLetsdiscuss- so he/she doesnt feel invisible πŸ™‚

    .

  65. YesLetsDiscuss

    Thanks ALEX! Been following your posts as I like to dabble in the miners (bought GPL and AXU after hearing you) I have been doing this a while and while it has been frustrating lately, at some point they will have to take this over from the metal. I don’t want to be out when that happens. I do own a nice basket.

    And btw, I’m a “he”.

  66. Jayhawk

    Scaled back my too large SVM holding and added that capital to GPL, AG & AXU positions.

    I have some questions about options over the weekend for Bob and Wingman.

    Take care boys and gals.

  67. catbird

    IMPORTANT PSA–YOUR REACTIONS REQUESTED

    This is a great community we have here. Therefore, I would really appreciate your thoughts.

    Last month I initiated a complete position transfer of all my shares of AGQ from Scottrade into my new Interactive Brokers (IB) account. In other words, I was completely emptying out my Scottrade account, everything in there.

    At the time, I had a conditional SELL order on half of those AGQ shares with Scottrade. Not a “Sell Short” order, mind you. A plain vanilla conditional SELL order.

    Well, the position transfer was completed a couple weeks ago, and the past couple weeks have been fine. There was zero equity in my old Scottrade account. I didn’t even log into it once in the past month.

    Now here is the problem: Scottrade, after my account had been emptied and all shares transferred out, went ahead and executed a sell SHORT order this past Tuesday when AGQ opened at $180, in effect converting the basic SELL order I entered into a SELL SHORT order because, of course, there had been no equity in my account for a couple weeks–I didn’t have anything to sell!

    Late last night I get a “Trade Confirmation” email from Scottrade. Shocked that there had been a trade in an account with nothing to sell in it, I logged in and saw the damage.

    Scottrade now says they will have IB deduct the amount of $$ necessary to cover the short from the funds in my new IB account.

    I am outraged. It is not a catastrophic loss, but it really stings, and I think it is grossly unfair. Many of you (DG, Shalom Bernanke) have more experience with broker than me.

    Obviously, Scottrade sucks, but do you think they are right about this??

  68. Daniel

    Catbird–
    I worked at a major brokerage firm and would assume that your transfer was similar to the ones we did their. When a transfer was initiated by another firm we were automatically informed not to do any trades or place trades in the account! Yours is a little trickier, but I am surprised by Scottrade and would call them to discuss further. The sooner the better!

  69. catbird

    I already called Scottrade today. They aren’t budging. They are treating it like I sold short the shares and they want all the shares back.

  70. Daniel

    Catbird–
    You may want to start at a local Scottrade Branch if you have one in town or nearby. It has been my experience that when done in person they might be more inclined to “correct” or “bust” this trade. Again, the sooner the better. If you would like I could call our local Scottrade branch and do some “fishing” for you! Contact Gary— (Gary I do not mind if you give my e-mail to catbird– IF he wants help)

  71. catbird

    There is a big difference between a SELL order, and a sell SHORT order because a SELL order is impossible if you don’t own the shares first!

    Well, when I entered the SELL order, obviously I had the shares to sell!

    But after the positions were transferred out, my SELL order should have been ignored. In effect, they converted it to a sell SHORT order.

  72. Daniel

    Again–Usually in a transfer the account is effectively closed! (Not literally) and the ACAT transfer process stays “open” for months to allow for dividends to transfer over! (But not all transfers are via what we would call the ACAT system.) I forget what the acronym actually stands for!! I will call Scottrade—

  73. ...at ease

    I would still go back and read policy on empty account. A trade shouldn’t take place if there are no shares in it. Especially a short sale. Sounds like someone was a rookie at Scott trade. Or someone vindictive, otherwise, doesn’t make sense how a trade could be done on an empty account.
    But just wanted to throw that closed account at you, as that is what they will probably say, it was an open account with an open order. But get your facts together before calling and stay calm and firm. Escalate, if you can’t get an answer as you need too all the way up, can I speak to your supervisor, your manager on up.

  74. ...at ease

    I would approach it as their system error. You withdrew funds at that point all trades are off. Who didn’t shut down the trigger, you or them, I would say them. It’s their system that should void invalid orders.

  75. james r

    Dollar just sliced through the 2010Nov. low.

    The next target would be the 2009 Nov. low of 74.23

    I say we take no prisoners.

  76. YesLetsDiscuss

    Catbird, when your transfer was done, did you also transfer or withdraw all cash from the account? Was it a zero balance? If that is the case, the trade should be an erroneous trade and they should be able to cancel it. I hope Daniel gets it done, but keep trying…and talk to the supervisors on Monday.

  77. Daniel

    Catbird–
    Called Scottrade– I used to know a broker there, but times have changed– so unfortunately I do not have too much pull!!! He is not indicating it will go your way –Unfortunately. But it will not hurt— Contact me somehow– Hopefully via Gary???

  78. David

    Stuff like this must happen all the time.

    There has to be some regulatory body that you can bring a disputed trade to — the SEC?

  79. Daniel

    Catbird– David–
    that is probably a last resort– but I do not think it will go that far!! I would also callIB and tell them the problem and NOT to send shares back or liquidate!! ASAP!!!!

  80. catbird

    YesLets:

    Correct. There was zero ANYTHING in my Scottrade account because it was a COMPLETE transfer. I had no cash, the account was all shares.

    The key is, all I ever entered back in Feb was a conditional SELL order. There are conditional sell SHORT orders, but I NEVER authorized them to sell short!

    So with an account balance of ZERO, when the condition triggered, they took my SELL order and erroneously sold SHORT.

    Daniel–
    I am now on the horn with Scottrade’s main customer line in St. Louis (their local branches close at 5).

    I am hoping the local guy I talked today is just new and scared of losing $ for his company.

  81. ...at ease

    Good luck Catbird and Daniel. I hope it works out, should, as it sounds like a system error, that someone didn’t select a flag on your account to stop trades.

  82. Daniel

    Catbird–
    See my previous post re: IB.
    This will help as sometimes a firm will send transfer back if there is a problem– MAKE SURE IB KNOWS NOT TO DO ANYTHING!! (If you cannot have Scottrade “bust” the bogus trade right now)

  83. catbird

    NEVER MIND!!! GOOD NEWS!!!

    My local branch manager was out of the loop–there was never any short sale. Central command saw what happened and cancelled my sell order, but my branch office didn’t understand.

    THANK YOU to everyone, especially Daniel.

    Gary has a great community here. I’d buy all you guys a Heineken tonight if I could find you.

  84. TheBookGuy

    Catbird,

    I hope it works out. I can’t stand terrible customer service!

    What brokers do you all recommend. I’ve been thinking of switching out of etrade and going to options express.

  85. ALEX

    CATBIRD

    Obviously Scottrade is going to be biased in their response too ( hoping you’ll back down and comply).

    You may want to tell I.B. what happened…ask I.B. what they would have done if it happened that you were transfering out of their account. ( you may get an honest answer , and advice too, since you are now their new customer).

    Hope it works out- let us know-that is truly a bummer.

    goodnight for now all.

  86. mylifemytrade

    Anyone buying me a subscription?

    Razvan?

    Eric?

    Shame on Bernanke dude?

    DG?

    Burrito Dude?

    Just kidding… You know I have been waiting to get on the bus… Ok.. I will buy one finally myself. I believe there is some referral scheme. Email me at mylifemytrade AT yahoo DOT com – I will use your email at the time of subscribing as referring person.

  87. catbird

    Alex,

    Thank you. Sweet relief. I feel like a new man.

    It wouldn’t have been a catastrophic loss, but it would have taken away half the gains I made in AGQ since the Tuesday morning low.

    Daniel, if you’re still reading, you’re a class act for doing what you did. I wish I could air mail burritos.

  88. AGoldhamster

    Predicting a big upmove on Monday.
    Not based on the bucks performance but on PM stocks.

    My comments in my kitco thread:
    “Very good volume for gold and silver stocks and especially because most of it was BUYING volume into the close.
    Also ACROSS the board!

    And silver closing near the intraday highs.

    Predicting a BIG move north for PMs on Monday.

    Also USO very good buying into the close.
    So likely also Brent and Crude rallying on Monday.”

    And let’s hope and pray there that geologist is wrong and there is no devasting earthquake in California over the weekend.

  89. Daniel

    Great News Catbird!
    I love it when good people prevail — (especially when dealing with brokerage firms)
    Sweet!!
    I will take you up on that beer sometime!!
    The weekend will be that much better for you! C-wave underway and Scottrade behind you!
    Congrats.

  90. ...at ease

    I liked options express, for options, but moved my account for a business entity trading to Trade Station. Both have their advantages. Options express is an easier platform to learn over Trade Station, but Trade Station gives you a lot of flexibility that I am still learning to use. My retirement accounts I kept with Fidelity till I am no longer rookie status in my mind.

  91. ...at ease

    Poly… I thought it was funny, how it just slowly and slightly kept flipping, unlike after a full day of flying back and forth. It just seemed to die. Thought it was a good closing thought for the day. πŸ™‚ Thank you Gary for calling it like you see it. It’s been a rough week.

  92. Shalom Bernanke

    I’ve never heard of a trade getting executed after the ACAT process was started. I highly doubt it will hold, but be sure to explain to IB what happened and ask them how to handle it on their end. There might be some sort of block they can put on while “in dispute”, so that funds don’t go to Scott and you have to chase them down.

    In the end, I’m surprised Scott even executed the trade with no margin funds in the account. It’s a hassle, but should get resolved in your favor.

  93. Shalom Bernanke

    I started out as a retail broker just out of college, and as soon as I was able to get into trading I jumped on it. Never done anything else since then. πŸ™‚

  94. catbird

    Shalom,

    Thanks for your input. Fortunately, my (former) local branch manager was wrong. I’m fine now.

    Daniel,

    This is Shalom Bernanke we’re talking about here, he of the 1600 SAT and the Time Man of the Year. This guy SAVED the economy! Of course he’s gonna know his way around a brokerage house. : )

  95. Shalom Bernanke

    As I recall, once they start the ACAT process there is no further trading in the account. That is, once IB gets your new account into the system, Scott is notified that you’re switching brokers. They then give Scott a chance to call you and “save” your acct from leaving.

    Perhaps somebody in Scott’s compliance dept didn’t shut the account for trading?

    The procedures were put in place by the brokerages to protect them from potential fraud as I recall. I wonder if Scott would’ve called you had AGQ tanked %50/share to give you a check? I doubt it.

    Not that it will come to this, but as a last attempt you can go to arbitration and win there, in necessary.

  96. catbird

    TheBookGuy,

    I’ve been with Interactive Brokers for about a month, and I am favorably impressed. They have the lowest margin rates of any online broker I know of–we’re talking less than 2%. Scottrade charges something like 7% for the same amount of margin!

  97. Daniel

    Shalom–
    By the way! Thank you for this dollar! It is a shame most of the population is asleep!! But I guess that just makes your job that much easier!!

  98. Shalom Bernanke

    IB will also let you manage up to 15 accounts through 1 advisor account, with some pretty nifty tools to distribute trades proportionately among them all.

    Alright, I’m outta here. πŸ™‚

  99. Wes

    Catbird,

    Careful with those beers. It’s hard to know exactly how many you’ve had.

    It’s got something to do with the Heineken uncertainty principle.

  100. fat boy

    i think i might just quit scottrade out of being irked by the petty move they started and failed to pull
    have a great weekend everyone off climbing tomorrow
    glad to see hammy and mlmt and let the rumpus continue next week and don’t forget you two keep everyone on their toes thats your job on the blog !

  101. DG

    Catbird: I’ve been out or would have responded. Good news it was settled. Complete BS the were giving you. There’s no way that trade could have stuck. You never put in a sell short order…how can they hang you for one. Absurd.

    SB: I was a broker right out of college as well…my first real job. Blythe Eastman Dillon. A great small firm that Paine Webber later bought and ruined.

    Wes: Great line: “the Heineken uncertainty principle.”

    Have a great weekend everybody! Hope Hammy is right about a big day Monday as I have all I want now (though knowing me I’ll keep adding on the way up.)

  102. Gary

    Whatever happened to that guy who told us the divergence on the dollar would surely result in a higher dollar? πŸ™‚

  103. Razvan

    @mylifemytrade
    i have no problem chipping in for your subscription but there was only one other person who offered and i think it was Pima.
    The more money people get the stingier they are.

  104. catbird

    DG,

    Thanks. I continue to be amazed at the great collection of folks on this blog.

    Although it was a false alarm, Scottrade is going to give a customer a heart attack some day if they don’t keep their local managers in the loop. I was fine, I just was talking to the wrong person!

  105. Wes

    Poly,

    Now that it’s all over, those trades you made with the lottery ticket slv Mar 34 calls were outstanding.

    Do you have a lottery pick for April ?

  106. Ryan

    Well that was definitely quite the emotional week for me. I think it drained me out and now I’ve become emotionless. You would think I would be happy with today’s performance but I’m actually feeling indifferent. Here’s hoping for a great start on Monday, maybe that’ll change my tune!

    PS. Catbird, I’m really glad you got that resolved, I had a “mistake” on a trade before and the best I got was my commission waved lol.

  107. pimaCanyon

    I missed the last couple of trading hours, just got back.

    Congrats are in order to:

    Catbird!! for getting the phony short sell straightened out. Way to go!

    Daniel and others here to jumped in to help catbird. This is a great community!

    MLMT!! for getting on the bus. Welcome! I hope you make a ton of money!

    Hammy!! For letting us know your forecast for a move up in the PM’s on Monday. You’ve already made a ton of money, so here’s hoping you make another ton!

    Gary!!! For not only your excellent analysis of the markets, especially of this PM bull, but also for the cool head you have on your shoulders when we’re all freaking out!

    What a great way to go into the weekend! Get out there and do whatever brings you the most joy.

  108. jeff

    i think i want to be a broker. ill handle the newbies at smt and that would be my only clients. every one of my clients would be rich. =)

  109. Poly

    WES,

    Thanks, appreciate it.

    In hindsight, I got lucky, real lucky. I sold them for almost the highest price those contract ever sold for, on the day they peaked. For once it wasn’t me buying them πŸ™‚ Thanks to Gary really, cycles got me out at the top, nice 1,300% lottery there.

    As for a current lottery, I did get into some SLV Apr $38’s last week, but my main lottery play are the SLV Apr $40’s, picked up 200 contract $0.18 yesterday.
    These should have the freedom to run all the way to expiration and not be subject to Gary’s next daily cycle.
    So the goal is for a possible $41-$42 SLV price for a $30k-$40k sale.
    est/wildest case we get a huge parabolic spike as Gary hopes, say SLV to $44 ($45 Silver) and make it a 6 figure cash out (2,700%). (Dream I know, lottery it is)

    Any other idea’s to consider?

  110. Bob loves Hawaii

    Poly, I am building up April 37’s in SLV, but have been selling the weekly 36’s against them until the 1428 swing low is hiy. I then will unhedge and let fly. My March sold call hedges on AGQ and SLV and W were helpful this week.

    I will roll all options to May on Tuesday, and will determine if I will re=hedge based on the swing low being hit or not.

  111. Poly

    Good idea, by rolling to May, wont they cost you a good amount of premium, no?
    If we’re on day 3 of a new cycle, you will have to contend with a new daily cycle low drawdown, which really make it difficult to play “a lottery” and can wipe the little value built in these.

  112. Bob loves Hawaii

    Poly, nothing is perfect. It is 20% of the portfolio. The weekly sold calls keeps the premium loss and time decay to a minimum though.

    I live on my trading so am always spread trading the options to ensure I am raising cash.

    when the swing low is confirmed, I will step away until we swing into the next daily cycle band, like what you are doing with your lottery trade.

    So far so good.

  113. Rob L.

    Poly and Bob,

    Where did you guys learn about options?

    I am a buy a stock/etf at the intermediate cycle low, sell at the intermediate cycle high kind of guy, but am trying to broaden my knowledge when it comes to options.

    I think it was Poly who gave a link to InvestorPlace that explained how to purchase low risk options, stressing the Delta and being In The Money. It was a great series of articles BTW.

    Any guidance would be appreciated, gents.

  114. Poly

    Sounds good, you know what you’re doing. I’m admittedly not that technical and play plain vanilla. I’m a gut/tape player, use the leverage to step on the gas when I think I’m strong or odds feel good.

  115. Bob loves Hawaii

    Rob L. For me, I have been a credit option seller for years. It is how I feed my family(I have other businesses and investments, but long term plays).

    Gay is right, if you buy go ITM. but for me, if we bottomed the the intermediate cycle and i give myself 60 days to expiry, I will always buy 25$ delta options to let the stock come to Poppa. It is the doppler effect on the options; as the price approaches the strike, the delta is accelerated.

    SLV let’s you buy longer dated strikes and then use the weeklies to sell against overbought or daily cycle high timeframes to profit from the retracements. As long as you are not greedy, it is a nice income stream.

  116. Gary

    Folks let me warn again about using options if you don’t know what you are doing. These are very sophisticated financial instruments.

    If you are going to get into these things learn everything you can about them first. Then think long and hard before you act.

    And finally email me before you pull the trigger so I can try to talk you out of it.

  117. Rob L.

    LOL @ Gary – point taken, my friend. I suspect you would rather people buy junior miners than options if they wanted more risk in their portfolio?

    Thanks Poly and Bob for you feedback

  118. Bob loves Hawaii

    Rob. L. I have them all, Junior miners, options, metals, and I always sell options against my positions.

    This is an income stream for me, not strictly an investment account.

    I may miss some perfect upside, but that is the breaks for me.

    Gary’s advice is sound, and his discipline has already tempered my my animal spirits somewhat.

    Options are like eating Japanese Blowfish, glorious or deadly. πŸ™‚

  119. Rob L.

    Bob,

    I have always been interested in investing, but am not sure I want to make a living from it.

    I have invested a little over the last 10 years or so, small sums of money, and have pretty much always lost. When I found out about cycle analysis I thought it was too good to be true. I bought a months subscription and rolled that over to the 15th month variety because I was so impressed. Since January 28th I have actually made money…or I will after I sell.

    I don’t want to blow up my account before learning a lesson about options. I wanna play with the big-boys, but maybe I’ll just stick to SLW and HZU (Canada’s agq).

  120. David

    Gary,

    What do you think of LEAPS as a way of gaining leverage?

    I’m not thinking of using them now, but when the secular bull market in stocks begins in a few years, I’d like to find a way to go old turkey but still get some leverage to a rising market.

  121. Intern

    Gary,

    Started with you in January, why do you use margin with an ultra ETF like AGQ? versus the SLW, or SIL.

    Is this ultra, ultra?

  122. Gary

    You don’t need leaps. just play the intermediate bottoms just like we do with gold. Although we most likely still have a long ways to go before the next secular bull begins.

    that being said call options at the next 4 year cycle low should pay off big.

  123. David

    You mean by buying shorter duration call options and rolling them over? Why not use LEAPS?

    I guess you could just buy an ultra S&P fund and use it like we use AGQ.

  124. jeff

    gary

    this down trend in the dollar is so steep. should we see a little bounce along the way? a bounce like we have seen. 4 or 5 days up and about one dollar worth.
    no real reason im asking, but is there a rythem in these declines?

  125. funmike

    Are there any caveats in opening a margin account? Currently I have a cash account but am considering a margin account so that I can sell short when conditions warrant. Will this affect me in any way if I don’t use it? Thanks for the advice.

  126. ddn3f

    Poly,

    I am in with you on the lottery play APR $40 SLV Calls. Although I bought them at a much higher price (0.29) than you…Let me know when you sell. Disclaimer, it is a small portion of my account. I am willing to lose it if the trade goes bad. I bought it last week when I thought the daily cycle was close to bottoming, a little early I guess. Holding it this past week was painful, but I closed my eyes and just held on.

  127. Gary

    David,
    Two to three months beyond the expected cycle bottom is plenty of time. There’s no need to pay the huge premium for leaps.

  128. ...at ease

    From your experience on the C Wave, is there an order to sell off, options first, miners, metals last or just what you want to sell off first?

  129. David

    Thanks, Gary.

    I think I will probably heed your advice and avoid options altogether. Otherwise I’ll have to take some kind of course to develop a strategy for deploying them.

    I’ve become a beta junkie thanks to the PM bull. Buying and holding an index fund will seem so boring once this is all over.

  130. coolkevs

    DXY breaks its uptrend from 2008 lows. DXY takes out its November low after the Fed announces QE2. Parabolic run in precious metals/commodities?? Perhaps. Gold is pretty much where it was when the QE2 announcement came. You would think it would already be more – record highs at least with these two important technical milestones being breached, indicating dollar weakness to come.
    72.5 – that is the level that DeMark analysis needs to hit to achieve a MONTHLY exhaustion point. The QUARTERLY has already occurred – good for 3 years (12 quarters), just waiting for a bullish price flip (close above the low 4 quarters previously). Kevin Depew on the Minyanville Buzz and Banter on Thursday reiterated his belief that the dollar collapse has already occurred – twice! This current “collapse” if you can call it that, has very limited downside – like collecting dimes in front of a bulldozer. The last 2 times that this QUARTERLY BUY signal occurred, in the early 1980’s and 1995, the dollar rallied from 80 to 160 and 80 to 120, respectively. I am of the opinion that this will be more of the 80 to 160 variety. Gary is indeed predicting a 3-year cycle low in the dollar this spring, but the rally out of it is going to be a doozy and you may not want to be around precious metals/commodities at all for years to come – the easy money has been made! And it may not necessarily be because of bad news – perhaps even a good black swan event. What that is going to be – hell, I don’t know, but the negative sentiment and the gathering negative sentiment as the media latches on to the dollar “collapse” story in the next few weeks/months is going to eventually trigger this dollar rally, just like the 2009 stock market low occurred.
    Not wanting to be a party pooper – I will probably be participating in this “parabolic” metals run myself. But 75.57 to 72.5 DXY is only 4% away. If we are expecting gold to hit $2000 and $60-70 silver, the downside in the dollar just isn’t big enough to see that kind-of run. From June to November, Gold ran from ~1200 to 1400 – 16% – while the dollar fell from 88 to 76 – 13%. I know silver which Gary focuses on did double, but will it do so again on a 4-5% move down in the dollar??? (I know the ultimate bottom won’t be exactly 72.5)
    Just warning everyone to be very careful here – as I said, this final down move in the DXY is like collecting dimes in front of the dollar bulldozer… I for one am looking forward to my nation’s currency being strong again! And, unlike Gary, I don’t know if I believe that the general stock market cannot rally with dollar strength, especially if we get that good black swan event whatever that might be… thanks for reading!

  131. David

    Coolkeys,

    I enjoy Kevin DePew and love him as a writer, but as a market timer he’s been lousy.

    During the meltdown he basically said that PMs would be crushed for years. Had I listened to him at the time, I would be millions of dollars poorer today.

    DePew is an Elliot Wave guy. Enough said.

  132. David

    And the DeMark thing? What is that?

    Unless Kevin has made you money, I advise the more prosaic route: find a bull market and ride it.

  133. Eamonn

    I am a rookie. I know this is forbidden, but i am terrified of going all in for silver.Its like this doubting voice speaking to me. What if we have another pullback in the S&P like what happened in the last week? I feel that the market will certainly decline heavily, if not crash in the next two months. Wont it bring silver with it? Will silver continue upward during a heavy S&P decline? Would someone who knows about these things be kind enough to reassure me?

  134. David

    Eamonn,

    The answer is simple: there’s no law saying you have to go all in on silver.

    Only you know your risk tolerance and what’s right for you. There’s no point in going all in if you’re going to puke it all up on a correction.

    If 10% works for you, do that. If silver is too risky, go with gold.

    Just knowing what your own risk tolerance is puts you at a huge advantage. Figure out what you’d be able to ride with through a major correction and go with that.

    As JP Morgan said when a young man told him his positions were causing him to lose sleep at night:

    “Sell to the sleeping point.”

  135. Eamonn

    Thanks David. Much appreciated. Emotions & fear I think can lose a person a lot of money. That said, Gary’s cool-as-a-cucumber approach shows me that he knows what he is doing and provides some reassurance.
    I think I’ll close my eyes and hang on for the ride cos I’ll only curse myself if I miss any of the big action. Its going to be a tough couple of months sitting on the sidelines and watching my money at risk. No pain no gain. I guess we are all it it together. I hope everyone here does well outta this over the next two months and when its all over we can sit back and joke about it

  136. Edwin

    coolkevs-

    the parabolic move in silver has already begun.. it’s broken out of the channel should be at 33.3 tops but it’s trading at 35.27 with a daily cycle to go. normal top calling doesn’t apply now, it’s super strong..

    any of the super traders on this blog can see this opp a mile away most and all had gone long.

  137. David

    Eamonn,

    Take it one day at a time. Next week should be a good one. You’ll have more money, more confidence, you’ll be one step closer to strong hand status.

    Believe me, the real risk is that in a few weeks you’ll be overconfident. That’s how you lose money.

  138. ...at ease

    I had to go pull out my older acer computer. My new laptop with aircard pooped out tonight,I have had it 33 days had a 30 day return policy. Wouldn’t you kmow it! So will take it back for the 1 year warranty fix on the aircard hardware. All I can say is glad this didn’t happen while I am on my 6 week trip out of the country in April/May. Yes, have had it on day and night following the G train, so it was getting a 24 hour workout. Lesson learned, make sure you have back up resources trading, so now I know for sure to take both computers with me on my trip. Can’t miss the selling period due to laptop issues.

  139. jeff

    eamonn

    in all gold? its not forbbiden
    i got cruched with silver and being over leveraged. then for a few years i still traded and learned risk management and my risk tolarance.
    so now i am all gold futures and leveraged a bit heave. but i build as i go. start with a position and get where i can put a stop in front of it and get some more. its not easy but it can be done. i get some postions stompped out sometimes and i whipsaw myself when i really want to punish myself. at this point i will add one every 25 dollars gold goes up and just barrley move my average up. so do what you are commfortable with. good luck

    100% garys way is the safest and most powerfull. old turkey is really as safe as you can get

  140. RA

    Gary,

    Thanks for the weekend report.

    Just so that I can get mentally prepared in terms of time frames for what is to come…

    Are you saying that the period from the end of the current C-wave to the start of the next C-wave is18 months long?

  141. Gary

    The next C-wave will start as soon as the B-wave ends, but often a big chunk of a C-wave is a consolidation phase before a breakout.

  142. RA

    I see.

    So the consolidation phase of a C-wave may not be too exciting πŸ™

    Thanks for your amazingly prompt responses on the weekend.

  143. Movax

    Gary,

    I am a bit unclear on your dollar call. I see, going back from the last bottom in 2008, it looks like the sharp decline in the dollar started early 2007. Couldn’t that indicate we could be looking at at around 10 months of a collapsing dollar?

  144. Gary

    The dollar cycles are in the terminology document. Right now we are working on the largest cycle; the three year cycle

  145. MrMiyagi

    Not a single one of the popular financial web sites that I’ve looked at mention anything at all about the US$ index descent, at least not on the front pages.
    Funny, isn’t it?

  146. Nike Boy2008

    Hi Gary,

    What about bonds?

    I believe that a few months back there was a discussion on this…do you think that it is wise to start building short positions?

    TLT has rallied from 88 to 95 in the last 6 weeks…It bounced off the 200 week MA and looks like the bounced has stopped at the 50 week MA

  147. David

    Movax,

    The dollar has been declining since last summer.

    Hence the rally in all risk assets, including gold.

    So the ten-month decline you’re talking about has already been going on since August. All that remains is the climax.

  148. David

    Gary,

    Great report.

    The only thing that threw me was your mention of going long stocks for a countertrend move at the end of the C-wave.

    Up until now that hasn’t been part of the plan.

    Perhaps you can get into that in a future report for subscribers.

  149. DG

    Nike: Careful shorting TLT (buying TBT). There are a huge number of bears in Treasurys right now. A hair less than before, but still too many.Doesn’t mean it can’t go down, but high risk of a sharp rally exists. I posted two weeks ago when I bought TBT, and it was a good trade. I will post when/ig i buy it again. See below for sentimentrader’s readings on it.
    http://img845.imageshack.us/i/tlt.gif/

  150. pimaCanyon

    Gary,

    I suspect a lot of us were surprised by what David has asked about. Seems you’ve changed your expectation for stocks: Instead of the beginnings of a long decline in the stock market that you had expected would start with the bottoming of the dollar, now you are expecting just the opposite: that stocks will RALLY along with the dollar once it puts in its 3 year low.

    Why the about face?

  151. David

    Pima,

    I think it’s a short-term trade, no more than a few weeks.

    I think I understand the logic, which is that if stocks decline with the dollar due to inflation, they should rally for a short while when that pressure comes off.

    However, it’s not clear to me that stocks aren’t going to make a failed rally over the next few weeks alongside the rest of the risk trade. I don’t think stocks will make new highs, but it’s going to be enough to fake out the Beanies of the world. In which case a dollar rally will take everyone by surprise. We will have to see how the situation plays out over the next few weeks.

    Again, Gary may want to keep this discussion for subscribers.

  152. DG

    I believe the thought was that the dollar drop would rally stocks AND gold, but the fact that stocks are dropping while the dollar is short-circuits that idea. The dollar weakness happening at the same time as SPX weakness is likely to continue, therefore. A dollar crisis may spook stock investors rather than have them buy stocks as an alternative. This is probably even better for PM’s as it will be the only game in town. This is how it appears to me, at least.

  153. David

    Also, for those of you interested in weekend reading, I found this guy’s analysis interesting:

    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/oil-price-stock-bear-market-commodity/3/7/2011/id/33199

    His thinking syncs up with Gary’s pretty well — he says that $85 oil was the choke point for the economy in 2008. On our most recent market top on February 11, oil crossed that threshold. By that logic, oil should rally into early May — but then it’s lights out for the economy and the stock market.

    More controversially, he thinks the commodity bull market is in its final throes:

    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/asset-class-cpi-data-commodities-inflation/2/18/2011/id/32899

    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/commodities-market-tops-commodities-market-cotton/3/16/2011/id/33394

    At first glance, this seems to be a position that folks like Gary or especially Jimmy Rogers would take issue with.

    But as Gary has suggested, because we are in a depression, industrial commodities and energy should be impaired for a while. It may be that the larger commodity bull market has topped or is topping. But the stock market is quite overvalued by historical standards, so we’re a ways off from a new secular bull market in stocks.

    Therefore, PM’s may be the only game in town for years to come.

  154. ALEX

    Gary

    I have followed Adam Hamilton for yrs. He is usually very alert and quite accurate. Right now I feel he’s off a bit, he called to go to cash …Drawback=It takes an entire afternoon to read his articles –

    He wrote an article on ‘sentiment’ and silver sell offs, etc

    PLEASE JUST READ THE LAST 2 PARAGRAPHS in his article…and see if you feel confident that Silver will be o.k.

    (basic theory is that dollar may drop and Gold may excell , but silver is ahead of itself, over extended, and a market sell off could hit silver hard , since it has commercial use.
    He is saying its not ‘fundamentals’, which are strong , but its ‘sentiment’ in a mkt sell off that will wash away silver gains.

    SO IN OTHER WORDS… your cycle analysis for the dollar may be correct , and golds inverse relationship may remain, but Silver can sell off with the markets.

    http://www.zealllc.com/2011/silvspxs.htm

  155. David

    Alex,

    Keep in mind that Adam Hamilton has been calling a top in silver for months, based on the fact that it has been stretched way past the 200dma. So he’s been wrong for a while on this.

    That said, silver is indeed a risky trade at this point. We’re all dancing on the edge of the volcano. But silver will take its cue from the dollar. If the dollar’s weakness continues, silver can and will get even more overbought.

  156. ALEX

    David said…

    “If the dollar’s weakness continues, silver can and will get even more overbought.”

    Do you promise? πŸ™‚

  157. Silverman

    Alex,

    re: silver, so it sounds like it could come down to whether people will see silver more as an investment for it’s commercial value vs. it’s value as a PM. In the current environment, I would bet on the latter.

    nice pic BTW πŸ™‚

  158. ALEX

    SILVERMAN

    yes, I would hope so, and so far so good, since the recent pullback in silver wasn’t so bad ( but the blog sure wasn’t happy 2 days ago πŸ™‚

    I would have thought the same sentiment for Platinum as a p.m., but it just lost 50% of its gains from aug to now

    http://www.finviz.com
    /futures_charts.ashx?t=PL.

    Thats kind of why I wondered if what Adam observed in that article would hold true.

    He points out last July that the SPX corrected and silver followed a little -2%, but Gold was up 5%. He was saying that Gold goes up 4.8%, silver should have gone up 9%,since it usually exaggerates the Gold move.

    So just a thought that…dollar dives, Gold goes up , but possible that Silver gets dragged down…from Garys perspective??

  159. aries

    Gary,

    At what extent the today’s military actions against Libya could alter your prognosis regarding gold and silver?

  160. ALEX

    By the way gary-

    I liked the many ‘observations’ in the wkend report, regarding when you think cycle turning points tend to occur.

  161. DG

    Trends in motion tend to stay in motion. Silver has led the bull the entire time even through the lousy economy and weak industrial demand we have now. Maybe after the D-wave this will change but I doubt it will change in the next few weeks. Plus the gold/silver ration is still out of whack.

  162. Gary

    Pima,
    Just a counter trend rally in a bear market. The trade will last less the 8 weeks.

    Remember the largest rallies occur during bear markets.

  163. Gary

    Alex,
    Your fooling yourself if you think silver is going to fall while gold is rallying. Silver will be going absolutely ballistic.

  164. Gary

    Aries,
    You’re wasting your time worrying about exogenous events. One of the worst catastrophes in history just occurred and it barely put a dent in gold or silver.

    This is about a currency collapse. The damage is irreversible at this point. The C-wave will continue until the three year cycle low in the dollar is complete.

  165. Rob L.

    Gary,

    If I remember correctly, you were thinking of either going to short the energy sector and/or going long the USD after it hits its 3 year cycle low, as the D wave decline in gold begins. Will going long the S&P have more profit potential during that 8 week period of which you speak?

  166. Gary

    There is always greater profit potential on the long side than the short. So I always prefer to go long if possible.

    However if energy does manage to decouple from the stock market (I doubt it will) then I might consider shorting energy AND going long tech as the dollar rallies out of the three year cycle low.

  167. funmike

    One of the reasons I believe in Gary’s plan is the fact that we are a such a debtor nation. Borrowing money for everyday needs is never a good thing and always has its consequences. I am not a super brilliant trader like many on here are. But I recognize that you cannot keep on borrowing/printing money. What sense does it make to borrow money when borrowing got you in trouble in the first place? Sooner or later the borrowed money needs to be paid back. Suppose I have an emergency need (Japan is our second largest creditor) and need to get some money fast. I have loaned out money that I now need to get back. There hasn’t been much demand for these notes anyway because we are facing our own financial crises and have needed to borrow/print more. So when I flood the market with these notes they must be heavily discounted in order to create a market for them. It seems to me that the currency behind the notes will also lose value and quickly. If you keep printing it only exacerbates the problem. Your printing/borrowing causes your money to be effectively worthless. If you are looking for stability precious metals is the logical choice. This too will run its course and that is where the cycle theory comes into play. Gary has called it ‘spot on’ since I joined in Jan. May he continue to have this kind of wisdom.

  168. pimaCanyon

    David,

    Thanks, that makes sense.

    I also think there’s a good chance stocks could rally along with PM’s here, maybe tag the February high, maybe even exceed it slightly. But I am not confident enough in this expectation to put any money on it!

  169. pimaCanyon

    I agree with Gary that it’s extremely unlikely silver would decouple from gold.

    However, this is what worries me: Stocks continue to tank, miners and silver get sucked into their downdraft, and silver’s downdraft sucks gold in. So they all end up going down with stocks.

    How could this happen with the dollar tanking? My answer is: It probably won’t. BUT if the dollar does bottom here and goes into rally mode, then it could be game over for PM’s and stocks both. At least until the dollar rally finishes and that might not be for weeks or even months.

    So it sure seems like the forecast for the PM C wave to wrap it up with a blowoff rally in the next few weeks is entirely dependent on the dollar continuing to slide.

  170. David

    Pima,

    It’s all about the dollar. Silver is a leveraged short avaunt the dollar right now. From the recent action, that’s been a pretty sound bet.

    Keep in mind that Gary has raised our stops. If the dollar miraculously reverses its meltdown, we will get stopped out at a modest loss.

  171. Gary

    Folks the only reason that stocks took a severe beating last week was because of the exogenous event in Japan.

    During a dollar collapse stocks will grind lower not crash. the liquidity flooding into the market will buffer the decline.

    Many trades and investors (like Beanie) will make the mistake of thinking they can find protection in the stock market.

    There will be no market crash. just a slog lower with plenty of counter trend moves. These are the conditions that are perfect for the C-wave to unfold in. Liquidity will be continuously leaking out of the general stock market and into the commodity markets, especially gold and silver as they will be the only game in town making new all time highs.

  172. Yash

    I read that article. Its all about stock market pullbacks and corrections and what gold/silver did with it. Gold declined except two times and silver declined except one time. So if stocks go into pull back /correction then gold/silver goes down too is what that article argues. Now just like gary dose cycle analysis on gold, we need to see cycle analysis on spx. Jim Currey is been very good last 2 years tracking this bear rally in spx. According to his cycles current stock correction is to end sometime soon with avg 9% from top (we did 7% or so from top at low) then Jim has rally back even higher high on spx to top out his 360 days cycle. And that is when PMs should do Gary C wave.
    Some dates
    Oct 10 2002 + 3142 = 17 May 2011
    April 26 2010 + 3142/8 = 23 May 2011
    I think these dates are around Gary’s cycles too.

  173. Avann

    I will admit I got a little freaked with the Japan situation and sold 50% of my HZU. I did put it all back a couple days later but I split it between HZU and CEF … I have a much better sleep at night with that split. I’m still 75% HZU and 25% CEF but it helps me sleep.
    I think what freaks me is having so much exposure to silver and nothing else. I’m not sure how else to split it … I’m not aware of any Canadian ETF’s the specialize in silver miners.

  174. Poly

    It’s GREAT to see so much remaining fear or doubt, even from many regulars. The low sentiment, collapsing dollar and gold low should make the next few weeks exciting.

    As for Silver, it really has led this rally and she will have to lead us to the top and over the edge.

  175. Rob L.

    Avann,

    PHS/U.TO (Sprott physical silver trust) is something you might look into.

    Also, SBT/UN.TO is a silver bullion trust from the same guys who run CEF

  176. Rob L.

    Avann,

    I should mention that the silver fund from CEF could be a better choice. As you know, Sprott has created a few enemies due to his questionable business dealings in Canada. From my own research, I found that Central fund of Canada has been around a long time and has a decent rep.

    Just due your own DD to help you make an informed choice.

    The tickers symbols I gave you are from stockcharts.

  177. Romeo Bravo

    Gary, is the A Wave in PMs going to be in coincidence with the several week market bounce? It would seem as the dollar goes up, that is the D wave?

  178. Gary

    The A-wave will go up despite what the dollar does. A-waves are spawned by deeply oversold conditions created during a D-wave correction. That whole action/reaction thing again. Although I expect part of the A-wave will be driven by the dollar moving down into an intermediate cycle low.

    Those happen even during the powerful rally out of a three year cycle low. They just tend to be rather mild.

  179. MrMiyagi

    Avann;
    Just a caution about those TSX traded ETF/funds, the volumes are dismally low.
    I have profitably traded ATD.B quite a few times but when you buy 1000-2000 shares of thinly traded stock, you ARE the market maker. To fill an order, the price has to move up many stops and unless you catch an uptrend (and enough buyers), it gets hard to sell.

  180. Eamonn

    I am a novice investor and economist – in the real world I am a process & chemical engineer (in Europe). I am interested in knowing what the outlook for the US economy is over the next 10 years. Is it in terminal velocity, where cycles of recession followed by inflationary devaluation “stimulus” by the Fed loop into infinity? Where is the “big vision” by the US government? From the novice viewpoint this “quantitative easing” is a fraud to devalue debt. Am I missing something? I would appreciate hearing people’s viewpoints? Is “quantitative easing” delaying disaster, or is it a curative medicine?

  181. Movax

    Is it in terminal velocity, where cycles of recession followed by inflationary devaluation “stimulus” by the Fed loop into infinity?

    Yes, until they default either officially or through dollar destruction.

    Sounds like you understand what is going on. Quantitative easing can’t and won’t work, other than to slow the collapse somewhat and spread it over the population rather than let those that hold the bad investments suffer.

  182. Bob loves Hawaii

    Eamonn, your question is unanswerable. America is in deep weeds, but has unique advantages over nearly all countries, and over all and I mean all other advanced and emerging nations.

    We can feed ourselves, we can energize ourselves (political problem, not resource related), our demographics are just fine, we have easily defendable borders (again political, not a military problem, we are comfortable with risk and with social migration. Finally, we have appetite for change.

    I am extremely bulish long term, once the ponzi is terminal and the people affecuate real change.

    europe, and China on the othe rhand. Not looking so good strategically, other than Germany.

  183. Eamonn

    Thank you for your thoughts, Movax. I would be very interested in hearing a contrarian opinion, so I could get the whole picture and see both sides of the argument.
    I am not and will never be an economist. But it seems that the taking of the pain from the 08 credit is being put off for another day, with the result being that the problem snowballs into something bigger. Is the US in decline? Jim Rogers seems to believe that this will be the century of China & Asia.

  184. Eamonn

    To Bob loves Hawaii. OK, so there is a way out of this? Like I said, I am not an economist and I will never see the “big picture” of variables that leads an economy to prosperity. Personally, I would never invest in Europe. Far too socialist

  185. ALEX

    POLY

    You are reading fear from many regulars on here?

    trust me, I have no fear if you were referring to my question. I thought the article I read was well written, good argument , persuasive and had charts showing historically that what he was saying was worthy of taking note of.

    I wanted to hear what Gary thought…

    If you tell me something, even if I believe it…I often will say back, “Why do YOU believe that.”

    πŸ˜‰

    I didnt see any fear on this blog from anyone ,really.

  186. Eamonn

    Hello. I have a question. Again, its a “noobie” question.
    Gary refers sometimes to “where the smart money is flowing” in his reports. What is “smart money”, and how can one find out where it is flowing? Thanks for any help. Eamonn

  187. ...at ease

    eamonn, look at the name of the stocks on those charts under todays date for subcribers only. we save some things (don’t name them on our blog) only subscribers get that information.

  188. Le Fou

    eamonn,

    Smart money are the people who are buying when “The Crowd” is selling and selling when “The Crowd” is buying. There are several ways to sniff out what they’re doing. One is the “Buying on Weakness”(BoW) or “Selling on Strength”(SoS) numbers from the Wall St. Journal.

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html

    Another is the Commitment of Traders report or COT. Gary does a lot with this and posts a spread sheet in the subscriber’s area, but the info is published in undigested form by the government here:

    http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm

    Maybe someone can add some comments to explain further.

    Best,
    Le Fou

  189. ALEX

    EAMONN

    Thats a good question, since Gary calls his site ‘smart money’ tracker.

    I will let Gary or another who will word it more precisely answer you, but it’s basically the Big Boys , not the general public.

    They can move the markets, because their orders are huge compared to…yours and mine,like Fund managers ….so you want to be on the right side of the trade ___buy when they’re pushing price up…sell when they start selling.

    P.s. speaking of thAt…C.O.T. report looked encouraging guys.

    http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png

    πŸ™‚

  190. David

    The more accurate term would be “Big Money Tracker”.

    If big money were the same as smart money, 2008 would never have happened.

  191. Hot Rod

    Folks,

    I would be careful (as Gary points out) buying the individual miners, CDE especially.

    I was a 2 year shareholder and bought in from 70 cents (which became $7 after the 10 to 1 reverse split) and ended up selling out over $27 (near the top in Dec) and then on the PM’s dip, bought into AGQ when I started following Gary.

    I was a believer that CDE was SUPER undervalued and could easily be a $50 stock. It opened a silver mine in Mexico with 10 plus years of big mining and it opened Kensington gold mine in Alaska.

    It recently (and finally) did “pop” when it jumped from $25 to $35 in a matter of days, but don’t get too excited.

    There were so many days as a shareholder where I saw silver up and CDE down (frustrating). THe list of frustrations goes on and on including Dennis Wheeler (clown for a President) and very odd financial decisions the company made (Franco Nevada hedge, debt issues).

    Here is my 2 cents.

    My belief is that the execs are in bed with their cronies at the banks or wealthy individuals.

    They issue debt to their insiders, who then immediately sell the stock short, driving the price down. Then, over time the buy the stock back at the super cheap levels, make interest payments on their loan and then get their principle back in the form of more dilluted shares. They make $$$ coming and going.

    When “they” and the market maker want the stock to go up, it goes up. When “they” want it to go down, it goes down.

    I’m much happier investing in AGQ now since I am double leveredged directly to the price of silver and I know for sure, with 100% certainty, that if silver is up, I am up. Even after the market closes, when silver is up in the overnight or access market, I know I am making $$$.

    No market risk, no geopolitical risk, no “Enron” risk, etc. (okay, I am exaggerating, of course there is risk).

    Disclaimer—-I am not saying to “not” buy CDE or the miners. I am also not saying to buy them. I am only giving my 2 cents from a former very frustrated (but profited nicely) shareholder.

    If CDE was given the ability to “float” and the huge anvil was lifted, it certainly would run fast and furious like it did in 2004. I’m just not going to sit and “wait” forever.

    BTW – do a chart of AGQ versus the miners over the past 6 months or a year. AGQ has pretty much outperformed them solidly (even SLW).

    I only wish there were a “triple levereged” silver ETF.

    πŸ˜‰

    Rodney

  192. David

    CDE and HL are basically scams. Everyone knows they exist to enrich management at the expense of shareholders.

    Having said that, AGQ only makes sense in a strongly trending market like the one we have now. In a market that’s flat or down the decay will slowly eat you alive.

    If you pull up a chart of AGQ from inception and compare it to SLW, you will find that SLW has outperformed. I would rather own SLW for the long term and AGQ for trading.

    EXK has also proven to be shareholder friendly.

  193. Hot Rod

    David,

    I agree and please don’t take this the wrong way. I am only being factual…..

    You are correct, since Dec 2008 SLW has outperformed AGQ (and it looks like by a decent margin).

    However, slide the bar only slightly (1 month) over to Jan 2009 and they are equal (in fact AGQ is a little up).

    SLW is for sure the darling of the silver miners, which is “funny” because they don’t mine jack squat. πŸ™‚

    I like their business model of royalties and letting others do the costly, difficult and risky work.

    Check out this recent article on Trader Dan’s site. He does a good job explaining why he thinks the Miners have underperformed in recent times and is attributing it to the ETFs. Does make sense and is rather “plausible.”

    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/hui-gold-ratio-gld-and-ratio-spread.html

  194. Hot Rod

    Does anyone know how to subscribe to this blog as an RSS feed but filter out for only Gary’s posts?

    Is there a way to get notified (without Gary doing more work) when he does a new post (subscriber), without having to get “all” posts?

    I noticed late this week that he goes onto the open blog and indicate when there is a new post.

    I’m trying to plan for the day in the future when we need to exit at the “end” of the C wave and not have to click refresh a million times.

  195. Arun

    Hot Rod
    For open blog, click on blue icon in firefox address bar. That will give u RSS feed. For private blog, sign up for gary’s tweets.

  196. aries

    Dear All, any Australian ETF’s that specialize in silver miners or the equivalent of AGQ or HZU in australian dollars with a descent volume?

  197. ...at ease

    I signed up for Gary’s tweet, got 1 and then no more. Can someone explain how tweeting works, as I don’t have any others I follow, so not sure if I am in or not.
    I keep going to the sign in page and go round and round.

  198. ...at ease

    I have gone back into twitter to set things back up again. Hopefully it will work this time. Do you have to log in or do you get tweets on email when Gary posts?

  199. Ian

    Aries

    “any Australian ETF’s that specialize in silver miners or the equivalent of AGQ or HZU?”

    No, there aren’t any. There’s no Australian silver miner of the substance of SLW either.

    While there are some substantial gold producers in Australia there’s not even an ETF for gold shares.

  200. aries

    Ian thanks. I have bought 1 year ago GOLD ETFS in AUD, but it is still at the same levels.

    When you take into account that I exchanged Euros for AUD, I am minus in euros!

    I think Sasa described best the problems of gold/silver investments in other currencies than USD.Shall I turn all in usds?

  201. Hot Rod

    What is the link or search criteria for Gary’s tweets? I searched for many variations of Gary’s name and the name of the site and didn’t get a hit.

    I am looking for the paid subscriber content notifications.

    Thanks.

  202. wmp

    At Ease:

    If you figure it out please let us know. I signed up for tweety mail several weeks ago and am yet to get an e-mail of Gary’s tweets. I’ve gone back a couple times but can’t make it work.

  203. fubsy_cooter

    Gary
    Are you saying a drop below 1382 would signify a d-wave to you? To me it would look more like the ending of a daily cycle bottom as we are only two days away from the last bottom and there is the possibility of Japan’s situation deteriorating. Anyway, that seems extreme given the lack of signs of a C-wave top

  204. Gary

    Yes that’s why I said earlier that if something came out of left field early this week I would give it some wiggle room as a possible stretched cycle.

Comments are closed.