END GAME

For months and months I’ve been warning investors that the dollar was going to come under extreme pressure sometime this year. I expected it to probably happen in the spring. Many people thought I was nuts. They were sure it was the Euro that would collapse, despite the fact that the EU is doing everything they can to protect their currency while Bernanke is doing everything he can to destroy ours.

On Friday the last confirmation occurred to signal the final collapse is now underway. On Friday the November yearly cycle low was violated. Cyclically that is a major catastrophe.

We are now going to see the dollar get absolutely hammered for the next couple of months. The viability of the dollar as a currency will be questioned. There is a decent chance it may start to lose it’s status as the world’s reserve currency. (Coincidentally about the time everyone becomes convinced the dollar is going to hyperinflate that will be the point where the three year cycle low will bottom and we will see an explosive rally, along the same lines as what happened in late `08.)

This is what all the top pickers in gold and silver fail to understand. They are all trying to call a top based on charts without any understanding of what is happening to the currency. 

In a currency collapse the market will flee into assets that will retain their purchasing power. Four weeks ago we went past the point of the stock market being able to protect one from Ben’s printing press any longer. So buying stocks as protection is no longer a viable solution.

Four weeks ago spiking inflation rose to the point where profit margins are now being hit. Ben will no longer be able to prop up the stock market by further debasing of the currency. Stocks have now decoupled from their inverse correlation with the dollar and will now follow the dollar down.

 The more Ben prints and the faster the dollar collapses, the faster the stock market is going to fall…and the quicker the economy is going to roll over into the next recession.

What will happen is that liquidity will rush into the commodity markets as the only true protection against the accelerating currency crisis.

This is why one has to ignore the top pickers and chartists. Overbought oscillators and stretched conditions are meaningless in a currency collapse. This is all about fundamentals. It’s about protecting your purchasing power. You can’t do that by exiting the one sector fundamentally best suited to protect you during this storm.

Now isn’t the time to be selling your gold, silver or mining stocks, its time to be buying more.

811 thoughts on “END GAME

  1. Hot Rod

    Counting the minutes until 6pm EST today…….when the currency and metals global markets open. We’re in for another wild week.

  2. Mr.Mom

    Clarification: On March 7 silver hit a high of 36.74 while the /dx was ~76.45. Now that the $ is making new lows silver is still 1.5 away from the high.
    People selling into strength or just how silver acts and it will catch up?

  3. Gary

    The metals are just coming out of a cycle low.

    By the time the dollar tags the 08 low gold will likely be $600-$700 higher than it was in 08. Silver may be close to 200% higher.

    Trying to extrapolate exact levels that things should be at if such and such happens is a waste of time because markets are controlled by human emotions not computers.

  4. torero91

    It’s way too premature to be calling a top in the stock market. Tops are a process. The SPX is in the midst of a typical seasonal correction at 7% off the recent highs. The mid-caps recently hit all-time highs. Bearish? No way! So rather than picking tops, I will let the market tell me what it is doing via significant higher highs/higher lows, sentiment, selling/buying pressure, etc. Several weeks ago selling pressure hit an all-time low. Again, not bearish. Caution bears IMO.

  5. Gary

    The markets have been in a megaphone topping process for the last year.

    But more than that, and the fundamentals, there is the 4 year cycle low that’s due for stocks in 2012.

    During secular bear markets those 4 year cycle bottoms are associated with recessions and bear market legs down (which tend to last about 1 1/2 years).

    More than anything it’s the timing band for the next 4 year cycle low in the stock market cycle that tells me that stocks have likely topped.

    We know how well people have done by trying to fight these big long term cycles.

    The dollar bulls have gotten run over trying to fight the three year cycle decline.

    The stock bulls are going to get run over if they try to fight the 4 year cycle decline in stocks too.

  6. Gary

    Jeff,
    Any stop other than the cycle pivot and you risk just throwing money needlessly away on a meaningless whipsaw.

    Your stop has to be $1382.

  7. MrMiyagi

    “Now isn’t the time to be selling, its time to be buying more.”

    Is this in reference to the market as a whole? In “GET OUT”, I understood the opposite.

  8. ike

    “The metals are just coming out of a cycle low.

    By the time the dollar tags the 08 low gold will likely be $600-$700 higher than it was in 08. Silver may be close to 200% higher.

    Trying to extrapolate exact levels that things should be at if such and such happens is a waste of time because markets are controlled by human emotions not computers.”

    Forgive me Gary but if Silver may be close to 200% higher are you reconsidering your target of 50 silver

  9. torero91

    Gary, I don’t agree we are in a megaphone topping process as of right now. Cycles are one thing but that megaphone chart you posted recently was wishful thinking. Now if this current correction were to hit 10%, I would absolutely adjust my bullish view. Historically, a bull market has never contained more than one 10%+ correction. We had ours last summer. Again, I’ll let the market tell me what to do. Also, the mid-caps are the growth engine of the market. Recent new all-time highs and not in a secular bear. So personally I will not consider the bearish side in the stock market until we have confirmation. Right now we have none.

    P.S. I am a subscriber in full agreement with your silver/gold views. No issues there. 🙂

  10. Gary

    Midcaps and small caps hit new highs during the 66-82 period also, but it was still a secular bear market.

    Despite Beanies protests to the contrary there is little debate that we are and have been in a secular bear market for stocks since march of 2000.

    In inflation adjusted returns there is simply no question that paper assets have been in a long term bear market and tangible asset have been in a long term bull market.

  11. MrMiyagi

    …at ease…
    There’s no mention of it now either. Just a blurb here or there, frankly if I had not stumbled onto this blog/website, I’d have no clue.

  12. ...at ease

    mrmiyago, I know, I feel I found Gary out of dumb luck. Had been investing in gold and making money, however not understanding how much more could be made and how to follow until now with SMT. As Charlie would say..WINNING!

  13. Kick

    USDX has closed below major support – interesting though it did not do it violently rather “coyly”. My take – a false break which is about to reverse violently 🙂 Lets see….

  14. Gary

    Very unlikely considering how early it is in the current daily cycle.
    Probably more likely we will see a day or two rally to convince everyone it was a false break followed by a complete collapse.

  15. Hot Rod

    Redwine,

    Our whole political system is a mistake and is going to take many years for Gen Y to kick all those Boomers out and rebuild with down to Earth solutions.

    It doesn’t matter if it’s Obama or “fill in the blank” it’s corrupt from top to bottom.

    The best “we the people” can do is to continually change who is in power (no matter the “party”) to show we won’t put up with the crap. Eventually we’ll get someone in who cares and gets the message.

    It’s more than “1” president. We have hundreds of politicians across the house, senate, state governments and judges to “clean.”

    My 2 cents on a “sunny” day here in NY.

  16. Kick

    If we all had a crystal ball that was right 100% of the time … 🙂 Either way the USDX looks hugely oversold and I would not sell it down the river just yet.

    Just to add: I appreciate your blog and read it avidly. Also respect your input and take it into consideration with my decision making. Good luck.

  17. David

    Redwine,

    I suspect it’s more like Kosovo than Iraq.

    It’s mostly air support, we’re not invading, and we’re not picking up the tab.

    Obama has mostly been embarrassed into doing it after trying to play it both ways for a long time.

  18. Kick

    My proxy to check on this USDX break is USDJPY (maybe central bank inadvertently got the intervention right 🙂 )

  19. David

    Redwine,

    In the case of the two engagements you mention — Iraq 1991 and Kosovo — the cost to the United States in blood and treasure was minimal.

    I have no real enthusiasm for seeing the United States dropping bombs anywhere in the world, but Iraq 2003 this is not.

  20. ALEX

    Blogger Kick said…

    USDX has closed below major support – interesting though it did not do it violently rather “coyly”. My take – a false break which is about to reverse violently 🙂 Lets see….

    In the past, I have seen what you are saying, but also I have seen 1 or 2 more down days (still oversold) and then simply a bounce back retesting that trendline breakdown , then a FAST FURIOUS sell off.

    Since Gold/Silver stocks have Volume buying coming in…other signs say it’s time…I would be watchful. 🙂

    Using UUP as a dollar guide, the dollar had noticeable large volume on Thursdays down day. It was a convincing break I.M.H.O.

    (and for the 10 guys out there that want to tell me the UUP doesn’t accurately reflect the dollar at all times…Thanks in advance ;)……
    I dont know where to find a dollar chart w/Volume,but I think Jayhawk can get one

  21. David

    Redwine,

    Iraq 1991 did not inexorably lead to Iraq 2003. We could have left Saddam Hussein bottled up indefinitely. Iraq 2003 was a war of choice, not necessity.

    Jeff,

    In prior instances like this (Iraq I and Kosovo), the US was reimbursed by its partner nations such as Japan for its services. I believe that the US actually turned a small profit on Iraq 1991. This is one of the hidden benefits of gaining international support.

    Even if the US’ partners didn’t pick up their share of the tab, $300 million is a relatively tiny sum — less than %.03 of what the Iraq war cost.

    Fox is depending on its audience’s inability to distinguish between “million”, “billion”, and “trillion”.

  22. ALEX

    Rob L.

    You re welcome, but some on here feel thats its not always exactly following the dollar.So I could say “Take it with a grain of salt”

    I have seen it as a good ‘indicator’, just a bit lagging at times,so it follows the dollar, but on Thursday, it definitely sold off with volume when the dollar was breaking down.

  23. David

    Most people would argue that 1991 was a war of some necessity, given that Saddam Hussein had just invaded Kuwait, a major oil-producing nation. History has shown that to allow an aggression of that magnitude to remain unchecked would invite further agression.

    There was some provocation in that instance, and the United States’ interests were definitely at stake.
    It’s hard to make the case that we would have been better off not intervening in that instance.

    Of course, if you are a pacifist or an isolationist, you may disagree.

  24. Movax

    I can’t really think of a good reason to kill, attack or invade another country, especially one on the other side of the earth. I would never point a gun at another human and take a life on behalf of my government. If my home was being invaded I would be willing to fight, to protect my family, friends and society.

  25. Movax

    Actually as far as 1991, I don’t have too much issue. Most of the world agreed to stop that aggression. Interesting that it was okay for the US to do almost the same thing though.

  26. Nike Boy2008

    Hi Gary,

    When I looked at the charts today, most of the gold miners have been lagging a bit…we only have 6 weeks left before gold hits 1650…

    the miners will have to do a lot of catching up to do in this scenario…HUI has looooooooooooooooooong ways go to the 700-800 level in 5 weeks…is that even feasible?

    what am I missing

  27. Darwin

    Gary, i believe i’m that guy you referred to that “told us the divergance on the dollar would surely result in a higher dollar :)” (3/18 @4:06pm). Actually, i never said anything would surely happen. I asked your opinion on the falling bullish wedge on the dollar and the IHS on the ten year. you said i was wasting my time with technical analysis and that fundamentals and sentiment coupled with your cycles interpretations were a better tell. I previously posted my comments on my serveral reasons why i was hedging my PM positions with puts on SLV. I added further to that position of deep ITM money SLV puts near the close on Friday. Your weekend report makes total sense. We all know Ben’s printing press is destroying the dollar and we all saw what the dollar did Friday and your assessment of the impending acceleration to the downside. Your cycles also make sense.You did say in your weekend report “barring something out of left field”. I have always hedged my positions especially when the obvious appears. What i find further troubling is the BOJ’s intervention in its currency this past week which was in earnest and imo will continue to be in earnest. Japan is attempting to “weaken” its currency not to save it from a death spiral of weakness..i think that is key as what do you think they do with all their freshly printed Yen?…they sell it and buy the US Dollar. I also believe Jim Rogers is buying the dollar…hand over fist. Again, i am a sub and believe you are correct on the upcoming C-Wave, i just think we get a “severe” correction first, especially in Silver as this metal seemes to follow overall market “sentiment” especially if the global markets retreat in earnest. So I remain hedged expecting a panic sell in the metal that could easily bring it back down to its 200dma ($24-26)without violating the current bull.

  28. robo

    This could end up being one heck of a Bear Trap for folks shorting the dollar next week. I’m thinking a nasty bounce here for the dollar is possible. I have no dollar postion here, but I’m reading many blogs today calling for a much lower dollar the next few weeks. Well, maybe it will, but there are lots of folks on one side of the boat here.

    Good luck and good trading to all next week.

    My only current position is VXX.

  29. David

    Interesting that Gary’s friend Doc has pushed his target for the C-wave top out until June.

    I have to say that it seems hard to imagine a parabolic top forming in the short span of time until May.

  30. Patung

    Technically on the charts gold really does look like an absolute dog, silver looks a little better but still full of negative divergence.

    I think the major factor here is managed money, will they get interested in gold again, that would push the price higher.

  31. Hot Rod

    Redwine,

    I can only speak for myself and what I know and discuss with my family and close friends.

    I looked up OWG and took your reply into consideration and do not believe Gen Y really cares (consciously or subconsciously) to rule the world or drive towards a single entity that rules the world.

    Gen Y is about collaboration, being popular, doing what makes sense for 2011 (not what made sense 5, 10, 50 or 100 years ago). Yesterday was Facebook, today is LinkedIn, tomorrow will be something else.

    Unfortunately, “we” are a generation about “what is in it for me” but at the same time “I hope it works for you, too.” “We” want to be told and have certification that we are on the right track.

    I can tell you from my perspective….monotonous wars with “blank check” spending when we have real problems at home and a middle class that needs help…is not my idea of positive progress.

  32. Gary

    Nike,
    From Friday’s level 700 is only a 30% rally. That is easily doable, especially during a final C-wave rally. 40%+ can be done in a final parabolic move.

  33. David

    Rob,

    I could be wrong, but I made the statement based on his charts and from the following passage:

    “Since November, when the last intermediate low formed, I have been eyeing late April as the time frame for a major low. However, for reasons discussed in the Member Letter, I am now watching for signals to confirm this low will be pushed out to early summer.”

  34. Gary

    Darwin,
    We just had the severe correction. It bottomed at the January trough. That was the intermediate cycle low.

    How many severe corrections do you need?

  35. Rob L.

    David,

    If you reread Doc’s post again you will see that the dates you mention are a possibility not necessarily a probability. He wants people to be prepared. It is simply an alternate scenario. 🙂

  36. Rob L.

    David,

    I am paid subscriber to both services and it is the smartest thing that I have ever done, with regards to my investment portfolio.

  37. Hot Rod

    Redwine,

    P.S. – I am not actually a “pure” Gen Y’er. I’m on the cusp of X and Y (1977) and feel I can relate to both.

  38. Farmgirl

    Gen X (Wikipedia): the term generally includes people born in the 1960s and ’70s, ending in the late 1970s to early ’80s, usually not later than 1982

    Obama’s birthdate: August 4, 1961

  39. Darwin

    Gary, i dont think corrections have a maximum limit of times they can happen. Yes, we did have a correction albeit i would say a 30-35% correction could be in store and is more “severe”. I have traded Silver for many years and in that time i have noticed, amognst other variables (including tech analysis) that an SPX decline has had a correspondingand surge of fear (selling) in Silver. Take a look at what Silver does when we get an SPX decline of any severity….its astonishing to say the least. Now if i add everything up ive been reasoning on my hedges, including what i just mentioned about BOJ’s intervention, an SPX decline which i believe could happen in earnest shortly may be just the icing on the cake and only makes me more certain of my hedge. We are in unprediclble times right at this moment. Nothing, including cycles is immune from what is happening…IMHO

  40. Gary

    Darwin,
    Do you see any period in the last 7 years that silver didn’t follow gold into a C-wave top?

    Hedging is nothing more than a scam that Wall Street pulled on clueless retail traders.

    If you are large fund and would move the market if you tried to get out suddenly then yes you need to hedge with derivatives.

    None of us are going to move the markets. We can exit at the drop of a hat. If you think silver is going down just sell. It’s that easy. There’s no need to buy an expensive wasting asset. Then you just have two positions to manage instead of one.

  41. Gary

    I think you are just mimicking Hamilton’s sorely misguided theory that silver is some how influenced by the stock market. It’s not.

    It is driven by supply and demand and it follows the cyclical driver of the precious metal sector (gold).

    Fundamentally Bernake’s monetary policy is going to cause a currency crisis. That is going to depress the stock market because inflation is going to kill profit margins.

    A currency crisis is like rocket fuel for precious metals. Two completely separate asset classes with two completely different fundamental drivers.

  42. Darwin

    Gary, i’m not arguing the expected move in Silver on Golds coat tails during the C-Wave top. Point taken and agreed. Perhaps i should say “protect” rather than “hedge”. If i didn’t have my PM positions i would have still entered my “puts” on SLV given all i have reasoned. You may have commented that this was just “gambling” then and a losing proposition given your confidence on your predictions. I enjoy the markets and all the opportunities it has to offer both good and bad. I’m excited at the prospects of whats to come. Theres a reason i subsribe to your site but it doesn’t mean i will always agree with your thoughts.

  43. ...at ease

    Gary, You gave the GLD trigger, how would I know what to put SLV, AGQ and SIL, SLW? Do I just see what the others are at the price of GLD? thanks

  44. Gary

    at ease,
    You use a trade trigger to stop out of all positions. If you don’t know how to set a trade trigger call your broker. He will be able to explain it for you.

  45. ALEX

    Gary

    The chart you posted in your post at 1:24 p.m.(silver) earlier today was kind of what I was looking for when I asked about Hamiltons article on –

    Cautious silver: its sell-off prone in Mkt corrections despite Gold.

    Thats a helpful comparison

    Thanks

    p.s. maybe you dont care, but you didnt “smart money’ label the charts on your new post , like you did in the sub area.

  46. Rob L.

    Intern,

    The balance works for me. The two aren’t carbon copies of each other.

    Best education one can get about cycle analysis.

  47. TommyD

    Gary,
    without spilling info, aren’t you shaving a little closely these days?

    I just see too much running of stops in everything.

    Instead I will babysit through until I am comfortable. ( I answered my own dilemma)

  48. Gary

    Hamilton has no clue what he’s talking about with silver and the S&P. I think he must have just made it up as he went along. Silver follows gold. It’s driven by completely different fundamentals than stocks.

    Look at March 08. Silver was making a final high while stocks were putting in a yearly cycle low. You have to wonder what this guy was thinking when he wrote that article. You would think he could at least pull up a long term chart and see if his theory held water.

    My webmaster set it up so charts in the premium site automatically get the watermark. Personally I have no clue how to do it for the blog.

  49. Gary

    Tommy,
    A cycle low will not get violated in an uptrend. The proximity of the stop is meaningless. It just has to do with a cycle bottom.

    I’m pretty confident we now have the cycle bottom in place for gold barring another event out of Japan. If that were to happen early next week then I would give it some wiggle room to make a slightly lower cycle low.

  50. David

    Hamilton’s basically reiterating a call he’s been wrong on for months. I have to imagine his subs are pissed to have missed the silver rally, so he’s effectively arguing with the market.

    I don’t get all the hand-wringing. We have stops in place. Nobody’s going to get killed here if Gary’s call doesn’t pan out.

    It’s the sitting that makes the money, not the thinking.

  51. Poly

    David, you’re right! But fear does strange things to the mind.

    If you’re playing the “cycles” there isn’t much to do here but be fully invested an ride it to riches, or get stopped out with very good profits since Jan. Why we need to question a very successful formula to date is beyond me.

    If you’re not going to commit, unless you’re all cash, what is remotely more successful in place?

  52. Gary

    The COT for the dollar has no predictive value what-so-ever. If anything the large specs have been better to follow than the commercials.

  53. ALEX

    ROB L

    I see DOC posted his commentary in the public area.

    You said you are a sub of Gary and Doc.

    They both use cycles-yet they vary on the general market since Gary said “GET OUT” and Doc just said he thinks the IT low is in and the correction is over for SPX.

    So…how do you proceed if they differ at times ? Have they differed on Gold/Dollar IT lows in the past? and you subscribe to both- How do you invest if they give 2 different views…kind of wait and see?

    Not being critical, I was just thinking that I might be confused if 2 cycle guys see things different ( I am mostly a T.A. investor, but enjoy and have seen Gary use cycle analysis confidently in tricky times)

  54. Gary

    O,
    That’s exactly what I think will happen.

    We’ve kicked the can down the road for so long that letting the market run it’s course now has become so painful that we can’t conceive of letting it happen.

    If we were to let nature take it’s course and cleanse the system virtually every large bank would go bankrupt. The world would descend into a deflationary depression much worse than the 30’s. Unemployment would soar over 30%.

    The powers that be will never willing let that happen, so they will continue to print and stimulate at the bottom of every successive collapse until they eventually destroy the currency.

    In the end all they will have accomplished will be to turn what should have been 2-3 years of misery into 20.

  55. Haggerty

    Hey Gary,

    In the report you mention that you probably expect two more daily cycles for the dollar in this final move.

    After the first daily cycle, do you expect a 3-6 day dead cat bounce for the dollar (which would be a failed daily cycle right?) Then continuation down.

  56. Moneyman

    Someone wrote that silver will fall along with the stock market because he read it on a site?

    Interesting! Why?

    Gary never told us that there will be a crash in the market along with the dollar decline..

    How is it that there are so few that look at where the dollar is going? How can everyone else be so wrong but Gary so right?

    Its scary…Gary…Lol!

  57. ALEX

    Gary

    If one is already a sub , but your special is open…can you repeat how one would add on the special to their subscription if they had another 2 months left on an ongoing one. I thought you mentioned a corerct way, and an incorrect way.

  58. Gary

    Alex,
    To begin with you have to already be in the new system. So this will only apply to monthly subscriptions.

    If you are a transfer from the old website then you have to let that subscription run to expiration before creating a new subscription in the new system.

    But for those that are on a month to month and want to change to the more cost effective program, first you need to log in to the premium site. Then click on the subscription link. Cancel your monthly subscription in the website, NOT IN PAYPAL. If you cancel in Paypal it breaks the API link and your file will be immediately terminated and you will lose any remaining time.

    After you cancel your monthly you can then create a new 15 month and it will automatically kick in when your monthly expires.

  59. Gary

    Money,
    The dollar hasn’t even put in the current three year cycle low and you want me to take a guess at how low the next one will be?

    LOL I can assure you I’m not that good.

  60. Moneyman

    The S&P might go to 1180 or something in 2 months..Who knows..?!?!

    That is 9 % down from here..Is that a crash? No..

    The money will leave the stock market but i dont think it will crash down when the dollar decline..

  61. ALEX

    Gary

    ThX for clearing that up! You may want to copy/paste that explanation and keep it handy on ‘Microsoft word’document saved to your desk top or something , so you never have to re-write that again. 🙂

  62. ALEX

    Son of a Gun!!

    Yes it is!!

    You should have just replied

    Idiot, its right on the homepage in the first place 🙂

    sorry

  63. Brian

    Well thank goodness we have plenty of doubting Darwins out there. Ron Ensana was on CNBC saying he was short gold and long USD. We need these folks.

  64. Gary

    http://www.thedocument.com/

    Doc is a good friend of mine who also writes a newsletter. we often share the same views. When we don’t usually a burrito is at stake for the winner.

    I’d be willing to bet one that the stock market will not make new highs and that this is not even close to a cycle low yet.

    We’re even on the burrito tally by the way. This would be a chance for one of us to go back into the lead.

  65. Gary

    Jeff,
    No I don’t have all the cycles charted. Way to much work for me to attempt that.

    The cycle explanations are in the terminology document. You can take the criteria and figure out historical cycle bottoms if you are so inclined.

  66. jeff

    gary
    ya . well i look at what you have done over the last year and i see a bigger dip beside your cycle and cant figure out why one was chosen and the other not.
    i am starting to see the light on a few things.

  67. Otis

    Just opened the futures charts and what a beautiful sight!

    Gary – thank you for your level headed analysis, and reminders that the consolidations and pull-backs were in fact the buying opportunities we were looking for. I was nervous last week with all the currency intervention/G7 talk, but decided to add my leverage with your final confirmation on the dollar. Was sweating bullets and had a hard time hitting enter, but happy now:)

    To any prospective subscribers, I have subscribed to many services and Gary’s is by far the best. How many times have you read the nightly report, only to have some event (ie currency intervention) occur after and wonder “has the analysis changed now?”. Gary’s active participation in the public blog is an awesome component of his service and allows me to answer these doubts real time. High ho silver!

  68. Otis

    Oh and BTW while Gary’s early attempts to catch the intermediate bottom stung (the reality of trading real time for anyone). Gary was right the losses are a verrry distant memory now.

  69. pimaCanyon

    Veronica,

    Thanks for posting the update about your system!

    Nice to see that, I’m pretty much fully loaded, but I did nibble a bit more on Friday. Sitting on deep in the money GLD and SLV calls as well as some SLV shares and a little GDXJ and SVM. Gold’s open this evening made me smile. (and I’m sure lots of other folks on this blog as well 🙂

    Does your system give targets or just buy/sell signals?

  70. Vonda

    Swing low sweet chariot!

    Yes, pimaC, she do look sweet, especially after MINI sprung a leak in Cali’s 10+ inches of rain over the last 24 hours. (She’s already survived a forest fire, having melted on one side. Might be time to retire her after this C-wave.)

  71. Wes

    Veronica,

    Lets see if I’ve got this right. Your gold buys are real buys and your gold sells are really buys, too.

    That’s just like global warming works.

  72. pimaCanyon

    interesting chart that adds support to Gary’s call that the stock market has topped:

    https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-qXMXxBD7fJk/TYah61ogU4I/AAAAAAAAAGY/tZRz8leeusU/s1600/Cycles++++20110218+.png

    The chart points out how since the 666 low on the SPX, the market has made a high every 67 days. The recent February high came on the 67th day after the last high.

    I know that Gary does not count cycles from high to high, but it seems that these kinds of “cycles” do appear in the markets, continue for a while, and then disappear.

  73. Veronica

    Wes, you should read a little more carefully what I wrote about my signals and IT moves.Regardless, it sold at 1424 after gaining about 80.00 and bought right back at 1428 and sidestepped almost the entire correction.Pima, no targets with my system as it backtests better without any.

  74. Eamonn

    Hello,
    Is there a seriously credible security I can buy in the stock exchange that holds bullion to back up its price, AND has the option for the owner of the security to take delivery of the bullion? I am interested in both silver and gold

  75. DG

    Thanks, Veronica. I for one am always interested in things that have been tested and work. (I’m especially interested if they have not been data mined or optimized!)

  76. Gary

    PC,
    You may have noticed that two of the cycles start at troughs and the rest are peak to peak. The last cycle ran 5 days past 67.

    It’s nothing more than data mining unfortunately.

  77. Gary

    Eamon,
    GLD.

    I’m not sure if one can take delivery on SLV or not. I suppose you probably can.

    However if you want physical then just buy physical. The reason to buy GLD or SLV is the liquidity and ease of selling without the large spread and difficulty shipping and storage associated with physical.

  78. Gann53

    The mini gold and silver futures contracts will let you take delivery with a min of 10 contracts. Traded as /YG & /YI on ToS

  79. Eamonn

    Thank you Gary. I watched a video posted on Deric O. Cadora’s Twitter page about US inflation and default and it got me frightened. Deric is a serious trader/investor like yourself (I am also a subscriber of both SMTP and DOCument) and its important for my peace of mind to see that two serious professionals generally concur with their investment ideas.

  80. Mission

    Anyone know why CNBC and Bloomberg have different PM readings than Kitco? Right now CNBC and Bloomberg show silver at $35.89 for a gain of 2.37% and Kitco shows silver at $35.89 for a gain of 1.5%. There must be something real obvious that I’m missing.

  81. Mission

    AGQ actually, but I got it, thanks. I’m a new subscriber and this is definitely the best 15 bucks a month I’ve ever spent.

  82. TZ(4404)

    Swing low in gold earlier tonight. (I wasn’t trying to mess with you guys when I said that the gold low on Tues would hold. I’ve got some tricks too 🙂

    Anyway, The gold low wasn’t too difficult to call (once got close and happened. I certainly wasn’t calling it before.), but I was looking to add *silver*, not gold.

    Recall I had added about 20% before the big drop which was clearly too early and helped to destabilize my mindset by time Japan and Tuesday hit.

    In addition, while gold sorta did what I expected (at least by me seeing the bottom), silver never dropped to my buy point. (Again silver seems to be doing its own thing and has more strength than gold).

    When silver never hit and when I saw the low was in on gold I tried chasing without much of a plan, but it didnt go too well (does it ever?)

    Chased silver. Stopped out. Waited. Bought back once it looked bullish again. Stopped out. Bought back. Paniced/Fakeout. Sold. Rinse…repeat..

    We’ve all been there.

    At one point when it looked bad all around I even sold some of my original silver position and was contemplating where appropriate stop levels would be if everything started collapsing. (Many others on the board seems to be feeling it too.)

    Nevertheless patience and persistance paid off and by thurs/fri I was getting back into the vibe and catching things again. I managed to get back to my pre-drop silver position and then also add in another 50% “cycle low” buy (which was my intention all along at the beginning.)

    (My gold futures position was steady and I never bought or sold through any of it.)

    The mistakes, churning, and thrash trading during the week cost me 7-10% of peak net worth, approx.

    I could have done better, clearly. I would have substantially reduced that churning loss if I had kept more to certain rules I follow, but like I said -it happens sometimes.

    Anyway, as someone else said earlier the losses are already receeding and I’ve made back much of that already. My position was increased on the dip (at a cost though) and I have a stops at various places that I can live with (and will still leave me with substantial gain on the chance we DO collapse down below last tuesday’s point.)

    I’m approx 7x-8x in holdings, gold and silver futures, with stops getting me out if we go below tuesday’s lows (and some higher stops on silver.)

    If we go up instead of down, as we mostly expect, then it will be a party.

    But, wow, what a week though.

  83. TZ(4404)

    Rob,

    Well, clearly it was one heck of a week for all of us. I slept with one eye open (only a half joke. I have a laptop next to my bed with a 1min screensaver. I tap the touchpad to light it up and see markets, then roll over again).

    But, before gary trys to chime in with some ‘leverage kills’ statements, let me reiterate that the losses were mostly caused by mistakes on my part. 7-10% lost. The account didn’t blow up, etc.

    I was just trying to navigate a pretty crazy time and did fine. Had everything gone south my stops were set so that I’d keep about a 66% gain from 7 weeks ago. Hardly a disaster.

    Furthermore, the action of last week actually helped me refine an additional trading technique which I will use in the future. Had I used it last week, there would have been a SINGLE (or maybe two) trade in silver and everything else would have held.

    So…that’s how it went. All is ok. But, No, I didn’t sleep (or post) much and it was a crazy ride.

  84. ...at ease

    TZ(4404), it was a crazy week last week. Like you, was on the puter all day and night. worry, worry, worry, check, check check, doze, doze, doze, check, check, check, worry, worry, worry. LOL It was a ride!

  85. RA

    I must say that with people freaking out over the recent dip, I was not easy to pull the trigger to add.

    But thanks to Gary’s coaching, I managed muster the courage to add about 20% more to my portfolio. I added at silver spot 33.9, 34.3 and 35.1. My heart was in my mouth. This is the most I have ever invested in anything before!

    Boy what a beautiful sight to behold that swing low in gold 🙂

  86. TZ(4404)

    When I say I lost “7-10%” what I mean is that using the same account positions from two weeks ago (before japan thing) (my silver position is actually higher now), that…

    IF.. gold and silver rallied BACK UP to the exact SAME highs before the decline started($36.71 on silver and $1444 gold) …then…

    my net worth would be 7-10% LESS than it was COMPARED TO the FIRST time we were at those numbers.

    That is the cost of my mistakes and whipsaw trading last week.

    My gains since we started end of Jan are still very high, but now MINUS that amount. (But my silver is now higher, so if we continue up I overperform.)

  87. TZ(4404)

    To give an idea, I’m saying “7-10%” loss because my execution statements last week are a mess. All kinds of trades with different basis over multiple days with various profits and losses.

    I’m eyeballing the loss to mention here because, frankly, I don’t want to try and figure it out through all the paperwork.

  88. RA

    The idea of not selling at a cycle low was a big help. And now that we have moved our stops up, that is a real relief!

  89. RA

    ease,

    I use a mental stop with spot gold 1382. I had a bad experience with using GLD as a trigger as TZ might attest 🙂

    I set a price alert for spot gold at 1382 (I do this using forex pair XAUUSD). I also set another alert about $20 before that.

  90. GottaHaveIt

    Gary, I have been following you for a few weeks now.

    I just sold about 40% of my silver miners … until last Friday I was 100% in silver miners, with First Majestic, Great Panther and Fortuna Silver my biggest holdings.

    I am very bullish on silver, but I fear the mining stocks will be hammered when the overall stock market drops, just like back in 2008.

    Yet I see you are bearish on the general stock market yet bullish on mining stocks.

    Why do you think this time will be different?

    Many other silver investors I know are ligthening up or selling ALL of their mining stocks becuase they think it’s too risky to be in the stock market right now … even with silver stocks.

  91. RA

    Eae,

    GLD is also trading on the Singapore Exchange which just closed (dual listed). The intraday low was 138.95.

    So not sure why your system showed 134.56.

    Although during US premarket hours, buyers may just put in bids at low prices hoping to get lucky. Maybe that is what you are seeing.

  92. ...at ease

    RA, thanks, I can go to sleep now.
    Fidelity told me that stops for GLD itself would be on the bid not on the last with market orders, so that had me worried seeing that figure in my order bar from Friday.

  93. Moneyman

    TZ

    Would be interesting to see how much difference it would be if you used a lower leverage and remained constant in the market rather than jumping into the front and back.

    Then you’d get some sleep too

  94. $$$

    This article at safehaven wants to say gold is going loer, bud hedges a bit.

    “Since last November, the index has been in a broad but incomplete sideways consolidation which could result in some additional downside action. The daily indicators were showing some negative divergence at the top and have, since then, turned down. The weekly indicators are far more negative which is the reason why the current consolidation could easily result in an intermediate correction.”

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/20337/market-turning-points-weekend-report

    As Gary points out, this is why chartist gets this wrong. Once they realize they are wrong, they will have to chase 😉

  95. Gary

    gotta,
    You just learned a valuable lesson.
    You let your emotions cause you to sell at the bottom of a daily cycle.

    Hopefully you won’t make that mistake twice.

    08 was a very special situation. The credit markets were imploding. That caused panic selling in everything. The odds of something like that happening again in the next 50 years are pretty slim.

    Barring that the miners will follow gold just like they did in early 08. The stock market was already well into the bear market but precious metals and miners were making new all time highs.

  96. Duuuuuude

    With Stocks showing a strong opening and the PM’s strong, I thought perhaps SLW might have a strong open as well. Am I seeing this correct…. +3.9%? If true, our SLW calls are going to have an unbelievable day!

  97. Lillie

    Poly,

    I’m curious if you’ve started to think about potential deep OTM “lottery” plays as as the C tops out? I stuck my toe in that pool with some of the coal stocks when they ran in 2007. Limited funds, some success.

    Thanks

  98. PressurePointAdmin

    Hi Gary, i understand that the stock market and USD has recently become decoupled, however im seeing the short side of the market as the “easy” trade. March is typically a very bullish time for stocks into mid to late may, I think we could see the dollar and stocks inverse correlation re-establish itself with stocks to move to new highs. Do you agree?

  99. Gary

    Pressure,
    March is only bullish if an intermediate low has been put in like it was in 09. We don’t have that now. As a matter of fact the market is now in a confirmed intermediate decline.

    There will be oversold rallies but the trend is down. We will soon be dealing with a dollar crisis on top of everything else, so no I seriously doubt stocks are going to make new highs.

    One would be better off selling into overbought conditions. A tag of the 50 DMA will probably be sold aggressively by the market. And if it can get above that any approach of the 1330 level will most likely turn the market back down.

    Unfortunately this is how bear markets keep people riding all the way down. They rally just enough to get ones hopes up before the fundamentals drag it back down.

  100. thedocument

    Gary,

    I’ll take your burrito bet on an equity intermediate low being in either now or by the first week of April. My methodology for intermediate equity cycles differs from the standard studies due to some techniques I developed/discovered while performing my cycle studies.

    As far as gold and the dollar, our views are congruent, except that I am on guard for potentially seeing a final dollar low in early summer. It just depends on how the dollar behaves out of the next daily low. A particularly strong bounce could mark a new intermediate cycle, pushing the final low out one more cycle.

  101. Gary

    Doc,
    OK you got a bet. I think stocks are on day 17 in the daily cycle with an intermediate cycle bottom due around late April.

    You think the intermediate bottom is already in with the recent selloff and stocks are going to new highs.

    LOL we are now on exact opposite sides of the fence than where we were last year.

  102. torero91

    The SPX has more than doubled in the last two years in one of the most powerful bull market advances in history and just like that we are going enter a bear market again? We have a healthy 7% correction and now the top is in? I’ll take new 52-week highs soon for $500, Alex. Jeez.

  103. Gary

    I think you might want to spend some time with the charts fro 66-82 and the Nikkei from 92-2000.

    I keep warning people that these big long term cycles just don’t fail. The next 4 year cycle low is due sometime in 2012. In a secular bear market that means the next leg down. Those last on average about a year and a half.

    We are now running out of time for the decline to begin. (I think it probably already has).

    So far everyone who has bet against these big cycles has lost. I certainly wouldn’t want to bet against a cycle as big and powerful as the 4 year cycle in stocks. I wouldn’t even bet against the current intermediate cycle. The trend is clearly down. Stocks are making lower lows and lower highs.

    Smart money trades the trend. They will be looking for levels to sell. It’s usually only emotional retail traders that consistently try to fight the trend.

  104. traderlady

    This guy is seeing the start of a decline:

    Stock Trend Seriously Damaged
    by Robert W. Colby

    S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,279.20) rose 5.48 points or 0.43% on Friday. SPX has retraced less than one-third of its 7.07% intraday decline from its 1,344.07 peak set on 2/18/11. Charles Dow and his followers considered one-third to two-thirds countertrend retracements to be normal within a trend. On Wednesday, 3/16/11, SPX broke down below 12-week lows, confirmed by the great majority of indexes and indicators. SPX and the other major indexes remain below 50-day simple moving averages. The intermediate-term trend appears to have been seriously damaged.

  105. Eamonn

    This is on Friday, March 18, 2011 from Mark Arbiter, S&P’s chief technical analyst:
    “We think it was also very telling this week that the U.S. dollar was not the place where investors sought shelter during difficult times. In our opinion, the dollar had every excuse in the world to rally over the past couple of weeks, and not only didn’t rally, but fell to its lowest level since November. The U.S. Dollar Index is now in danger of breaking key chart support just below 76, which, in our view, opens the door for a steepening slide down to the 2008 bear market lows in the 70/71 region. This could have extremely bullish implications for commodities, in our view, and, could send inflation spiralling higher. Eventually, that would likely not be good for equity prices.

    As markets stabilized and the greenback continued lower, it appears to us that the pullback in gold and silver prices is over. We believe this worked off some overbought momentum readings, and set the metals up for another run to the upside. If the U.S. Dollar Index rolls over, as we expect, we think there could be quite a rally in gold and silver prices, as well as other commodities. We estimate gold could rise up toward long-term trend line resistance in the $1,800/oz. zone and we see silver prices testing their all-time highs up near $50/oz.”

  106. torero91

    Gary, I agree smart money would be looking to sell. Right now they are not. Selling pressure hit record lows a few weeks ago. You don’t want to see that around a potential top!

    Also, we do not have significant lower highs or lower lows on an intermediate or longer-term time frame. We are in a correction right now, so of course you’ll see them on a ST time frame.

  107. pimaCanyon

    this morning I got to experience what catbird must have felt when he got the notice that scottrade had sold short AGQ in his account…

    My position statement is showing a stock I do not own (SVMFF – “Silvercorpt Metals Inc Ord”) with zeros in all columns (like number of shares, etc.), but with a LOSS of $10,000 in the P/L Day column!

    I do own SVM and the numbers are correct for that stock. I looked up SVMFF and there’s not even a stock by those letters.

    My account is with TOS. Seems like whenever they do an update to the software, something goes awry.

    I think once the C wave is done I will open an account with IB and move the funds from this TOS account to IB.

  108. Driver

    Gary,

    You stated that we’re on day 17 of the daily cycle for the SPX. It looks like your red arrow in the daily cycle count chart needs to be moved to the left to match that.

  109. Jayhawk

    Pima-

    Same here! I almost had a heart attack. WTF kind of joke operation is TOS? I’m gonna been done with them too after this experience. They have me down 100K on these miners.

  110. The Angry Hippie

    Gary,

    I’ve got too much money in GLD and want to move it to a fund that will provide better return. Currently 50% AGQ, 50% GLD. Any advice on when and where to make the switch.

    Thanks.

  111. pimaCanyon

    jayhawk,

    I’m sure you’ve been in touch with them this morning, right?

    I tried asking them about it via a Chat, but got no response. (Their chat responses have taken longer and longer since TD Ameritrade bought them out and cut their staff to the bone. I hate what large corporate buyouts do to small companies!)

    So I wrote them an email and got a quick reply: “Thank you for your email. This is an issue that we are aware of and we are working diligently to get this corrected. It should be very shortly. Thank you for your patience.”

    I blame TD Ameritrade for all the problems they’ve had since the buyout. They were a great company before then, never had problems with their software upgrades, always fast response to online Chats. They get bought out, the TD Ameritrade CEO hacks their staff to the bone so he can fatten up his huge quarterly bonus and it’s been downhill ever since. There is something seriously wrong with the way CEO’s are compensated and I suspect it will eventually result in their own and their companies’ undoing.

  112. pimaCanyon

    Hippie,

    If you want to stay 50 percent gold but with better leverage, you can do one or both of the following:

    1) Buy GLD deep in the money calls, June or later, and /or
    2) Buy DGP, double long gold etf.

    Be careful though. With the money you have tied up in 100 shares of GLD, you can buy 8 deep in the money GLD calls, effectively controlling 800 shares of GLD. It’s great when the price of GLD goes up, but when it moves against you, your loss will be 8 times greater than if you had the 100 shares of GLD.

    You might try easing into it if you go the call options route. Buy a couple or three today, wait to get some profit under them, then buy a couple more. Also it’s good to figure out ahead of time what you’re willing to handle in terms of drawdown if price moves against you and not over-leverage your account.

  113. Otis

    Nice test of the 3/7 -3/13 peak to peak down trend line. When we decisively break this mornings high, look out above!

    I’m also using TOS through TDAmeritrade. Agree it’s been pretty glitchy lately (although no heart attack causing phantom positions… knock on wood) I’ve thought about switching to IB b/c of the great margin rates and low commissions. For any IB users that have experience with TOS, would you say their charting software is as powerful as TOS with a similar study selection? Thank you.

  114. St. Deluise

    pima- same issue with my TOS account. woke up down about 150% total giving me a huge negative account. nearly shat myself!

    in other news just got back from 5+ weeks without a computer after having gone long GLD around 129. so that was nice.

  115. Otis

    Any 401K administrators or users out there that have suggestions on PM funds to offer in a 401K? Setting up a small business retirement program and while I would love to just put AGQ in it, it would probably be a bad idea to offer to the average employee/investor. I’ve also thought of GLD or SLV but again have questions about future default possibilities as well as commission costs for regular contributions. Vanguard has a precious metals fund with great expense ratio. Any other ideas? (This may be the wrong forum for this question, but thought I’d ask.) Thanks and High Ho SIlver!

  116. T.J. Rand

    Otis-

    Toqueville (run by John Hathaway) has been pretty successful.

    Disclaimer- I have never owned it, but have followed his interviews.

  117. Bob loves Hawaii

    Otis, I manage our company 401K plan. You need to be careful from a fiduciary standpoint (appropriateness), as you have liability. Vanguard is safe, and you also may offer a self directed option, as well. Make sure you offer education and review risks of concentration, etc.

    It is one thing for us to follow the bull and concentrate, but a lawyer will deli slice you in court if someone did not get out of the PM’s and blamed you for offering such a “risky” investment choice.

    Of course you can get Gary as a expert witness though. 🙂

  118. Jayhawk

    Pima-

    They must be slammed with irate customers. I can’t get anyone on the phone. What a bunch of buffoons. I seriously thought someone hijacked my account and shorted the PM complex. It look 10 years off my life. Idiots!

  119. Gary

    Options,
    not confident enough that I would do something stupid like lose my positions only 5 days into a new cycle.

    You could use a gap fill to add if you didn’t do so at the cycle bottom. Just be prepared to alter the plan if the gap never fills.

  120. Wes

    Gary,

    As I understand cycles, there is nothing to keep Doc’s cycle count on SPX from being correct, and the IT cycle could still fail and not make a new high.

    Is this not correct ?

  121. ALEX

    Options only

    just my opinion..gaps do often get filled, but-

    This late in the game, its possible that these gaps get filled in the D-wave correction.

  122. pimaCanyon

    I hear you Jayhawk.

    I used to be in software, so I know how complex things can get. But it does seem like they are just throwing the updates over the wall having done very little in the way of testing. They probably don’t even have a QA department to do the testing (or if they did before the buyout, the TD Ameritrade CEO in his infinite wisdom fired all those QA guys. QA? We don’t need no stinking QA.)

  123. T.J. Rand

    I have very limited experience with different trading platforms, and would be interested in knowing what makes IB and TOS the (seemingly) preferred choices for brokers (they seem to be the most mentioned, so I assume they are the most used).

    I’ve used Schwab for decades, and have found their pricing OK, their new trading platform/charting software pretty good, and their customer service really strong. The big downsides are no futures trading and the charting software does not track the dollar and commodities (but I’ve found a workaround by having a Chartstation window open). I’m always looking to upgrade/test what I currently do, so am curious as to what I’m missing.

  124. pimaCanyon

    Otis,

    I’ve thought about charting with respect to my plan to switch to IB. What I’m planning to do is to move only my IRA account (largest account and where I do almost all of my trading), but keeping my small Roth IRA with TOS, so I can continue to use their charting package. My wife also has a couple of small TOS accounts and I will probably just leave those along as well.

    So I plan to continue to use TOS for charting–unless it just becomes so bad that I decide to move them all over to IB. But by then hopefully I will have figure out their charting package and/or decide to just get a subscription to stockcharts and do my charting there.

  125. catbird

    Pima and Jayhawk:

    Yeah, I do relate! What made Scottrade so terrifying was I had a live human on the phone for 45 minutes assuring me that I owed Scott 700 shares of AGQ! I felt like I was in a nightmare or dealing with the mafia or something.

    You will like IB. Seems like a no-bull operation. Very professional trading workstation, 100% java-powered. (you can also log in on your browser, but it isn’t as full-featured)

    I’ve heard IB’s telephone customer service isn’t good, but they have tons of tutorials on their website, many including narrated video.

    For me, the low margin rates sealed the deal.

  126. Gallo

    FYI for an opposing view on the dollar: Larry Edelson thinks that the dollar WILL in all likelihood plunge lower through resistance very soon but also is forecasting mass liquidation of all assets including PMs as money is repatriated to Japan to help them.

  127. thedocument

    Wes,

    That’s correct. We could technically get a new intermediate cycle that rolls over without setting a new bull market high. But based on what I watch, there is a very small price range in which that could occur, so we’ll just stick with stocks making a new high for the burrito bet. If your scenario happens to occur, I’ll file a protest with the betting commission 😉

  128. Peter

    gary, i am not sure if you answered this earlier. you set some stops late last week, were these mental stops, or real stops that will trigger you to sell down to core.

    peter

  129. GottaHaveIt

    Gary,

    Thanks for the reply.

    You know, as I was selling last Friday, in the back of my mind I was thinking “If everybody is so bearish, maybe this is a BULLISH sign”

    But I “chickened out” and decided to take some profits to protect my capital.

    I am a new premium member and I see that you are primarily invested in index ETF’s rather than individual miners.

    I have my stock portfolio money in a handful of individual silver miners. So far, they have outperformed SIL and SLW.

    Would you recommend getting out of the miners and into your stocks, or should I stick with what has been working for me so far?

    Also, should I buy back some of the stocks I sold on Friday (they are up 5-12% so far today) or wait for a pull-back?

  130. pimaCanyon

    catbird (and others thinking of switching to IB),

    I too have heard that IB does not have much in the way of customer service. Their customer service reps will not hand hold you thru the learning curve. Apparently they expect that traders who sign up with them have lots of experience under their belts. As a result, the customer support reps have no patience with newbee questions.

    So if you’re thinking of switching to IB, you better know what you’re doing as a trader because you’ll be pretty much on your own.

  131. ...at ease

    I am still learning my way around TS (trade station), however their trade costs are low and their customer service is great and offer continous web based training and online manual.

  132. Gary

    Gotta,
    You just got the pullback and you sold. What makes you think the next time would be any different?

    I might point out that this is only day 5 of a new cycle. It might be a vain hope that we would get another pullback so soon.

    I would never have more than 5-10% in any one stock. If you are more concentrated than that then you are at risk of a company specific problem causing a large drawdown.

    I will always opt for the ETF and give up a little upside to be protected from company specific risk.

  133. The Angry Hippie

    Thanks SB. Im interested in getting oriented to options, but don’t have the time right now. In the midst of medical school and board exams at the end of April. Got enough to learn between now and them.

    I am sure I’ll be asking for pointers on this board during the summer.

  134. ALEX

    That interview with AG ( First Majestic Silver) must have went well on CNBC this morning, they are up over 8% on very good volume.

    Also nearing a break out to new all time highs on such volume is quite bullish. Its only 11.20 a.m.-this could be all time highest volume too by days end.

    I will sell something and buy more if it fills those gaps soon, if not, it may not come back here until the D-Wave I.M.H.O.

  135. DG

    Did anyone join me in buying DFJ at 38 last week? It was as cheap as the SPX was in 1974. Japan is probably not going away.

  136. ALEX

    Hey DG

    Thats a sweet trade, I missed your call on that last week.

    When do you sell? Are you looking for a test of the break down or a moving avg touch specifically, or a gut feel like…” I dont want to be greedy, I better get out’ ?

    Good trade so far.

  137. Beksachi

    Gary,

    What are your views on monthly option expiration dates time frame (March 28th for gold and silver) as a strategy to buy more during the much anticipated “pullbacks”?

    In recent months, I believe the pullbacks have not been as consistent or have been very shallow and short.

    I have a little bit more powder left and while I’m cursing I did not keep my cool and follow your guidance by buying all last week, I am wondering whether to jump now and/or wait till 28th.

    thanks,

  138. pimaCanyon

    OEX options traders buying lots of puts today.

    DG, have you tracked their record over the past few months. I know that you once said that they used to be pretty good at indicating future market direction (but very short term). But that was up until last November and since then they have not been so accurate.

  139. Clarkatroid

    Gary I know the c waves are where the real gains are at, but what % return do you think is achievable in the interim periods. Ie summer 2011 to summer 2012

    Many thanks

  140. DG

    Dude and Alex: I plan to sell DFJ at that gap fill spot.

    Pima: I saw the OEX numbers. They need to be right for a while before I “trust” them again, but it is still a data-point for me. I am torn on the SPX but have lots and lots of AGQ, so don’t really care.

  141. pimaCanyon

    Hippie,

    Yeah, SB and I are brothers. No, wait… make that twins, identical twins.

    (Okay, okay, soon I will take down that pic of SB and put up a nice mountain pic or something 🙂

  142. ALEX

    Pima

    whenever I Read your posts , I see that picture and picture you crying or distressed…its just the picture that projects that emotion into your words…funny.

  143. MrMiyagi

    Id this normal, everything going up, including gold & silver, and US $ going down?
    Isn’t there supposed to be a different correlation between all these?

  144. pimaCanyon

    Alex,

    Yeah, that’s me crying the blues over the crashing of the dollar. ‘course, as my twin brother SB likes to say, it’s all part of the plan, everything is O.K.

  145. DG

    I agree with Gary that at this point the wiggles in gold and silver bumping up against 36 don’t mean anything. The dollar is going to open down 1% or so some day soon and then the wiggles will get blown through like, well, hot silver through resistance.

  146. Nike Boy2008

    GLD on the SoS list sure seems a little creey…

    it’s been a while since I have seen such a huge SoS number…ii was before the intermediate decline

  147. pimaCanyon

    Nikeboy,

    I see it now. That totally sucks.

    Up until now there was not one miner or PM etf on the list.

    And gold futures and GLD have been moving down quickly during the last hour.

    I don’t like the hourly chart, I think we’re due for a pullback, maybe to 1412 on the futures. If we go below 1406, something bigger is taking place.

  148. ALEX

    DUUUUUDE

    I was JUST looking at the VIX on a 3 yr chart (weekly or daily) and it really indicates , at this point , that the markets could run.

    There is an overbought , over extended series of highs that you can draw a trendline down (along the tops) and it capped the run up on the vix this time too…I am not at a p.c. that I can attach a chart, sorry.

  149. Gary

    I think the problem isn’t a big seller in silver. We probably just run out of buyers above $36.

    At some point the buyers will step up. Probably pre-market so that everyone who didn’t pull the trigger waiting for confirmation first will get left behind and have to chase.

    Of course we all know how that goes. Once someone gets left at the station they immediately say “I’ll buy on the first pullback”. Well if the pullback never comes then they miss the move.

    …or they get the pullback but because the news in the media is negative they concentrate on that instead of the charts and can’t pull the trigger.

    We got a classic example last week. If one would have turned off the TV and only watched the charts they would have easily bought into the correction because in reality the correction was very minor, especially in silver.

    Instead everyone was focused on the news in Japan and that overrode logic and prevented people from using the pullback as a buying opportunity.

    Moral of the story quit watching the damn TV!

  150. Poly

    Everything looks creepy on a ONE MINUTE chart. Easy to scare yourself on any “minute/hour” chart.

    Gold is up $8.40 and Silver up $0.64, more than happy with that!

    As for SOS, plenty of people have looked back at GLD SOS and found no correlation with a drop. It’s actually appeared fairly frequently on the list. Plus $45m of a daily traded $2Billion isn’t exactly huge.

  151. Gary

    Folks how many times must I tell you that the only thing that has any predictive value is the SPY and even that is often very early.

  152. ALEX

    I think the Miners are leading , they arent pulling back with Gold pulling back near $8

    -and Most of mine have an oversold stochastics from merely going sideways on a 1 day chart (including GDX). HUI still up $11

    SO FAR…Alls good 🙂

  153. n1tro

    gary is right again. folks, its time to nut up or shut up! i’m at 13X leverage. unrealized balance down from -$30k last week to just -$3k 🙂

  154. Gary

    Folks watching the intra day wiggles will probably just cause you to make a costly mistake.

    It’s day 5 of a new daily cycle. This is the worst possible time to try and get cute.

    The dollar has broken down. The COT isn’t even close to negative levels yet.

    Sentiment is neutral.

    What more do you need?

  155. DG

    Gary: You have said that only SPY has predictive value, but at the same time you say you have not seriously looked at anything else (except maybe the Q’s). YOu may be right but this seems more like an article of faith than rigorous study, no? Someone posted this chart a while ago, and it does not seem random to me.

    http://img340.imageshack.us/i/goldsos.png/

  156. DG

    Just to be clear: I am NOT selling a single share of PM’s. Gary is right that sentiment is dead neutral almost everywhere in the complex and we just bottomed a few days ago. But just as a point in the future, I was interested in his SoS response.

  157. Poly

    DG,

    That chart has huge holes. The analysis involved “picking” the IT lows and then ONLY looking at preceding days and tallying all of the SOS days. It leaves out the countless other GLD SOS days.

  158. Gary

    Very unlikely in the middle of a currency crisis. The last one in early 08 caused oil to spike to $147 and collapsed the economy.

    Ahh if only the world worked like that, and the Fed could just print money willy nilly and make everything all better.

    Unfortunately the world doesn’t work like that and printing trillions of dollars just leads to much bigger problems and a much bigger collapse.

  159. DG

    Poly: That would just show it is necessary but not sufficient, giving false signals. I am not claiming the chart conclusively proves anything, but it sure seems less than random. Or at the very least worth more study. My surprise is that it seems to me that Gary writes it off without having studied it.

  160. LowTax

    Gary, one big thing that’s missing for a stock market top is big SoS on SPY. The last big number was a buy. I’d expect to see at least some selling at a major top like this…

  161. Gary

    Well don’t forget we’ve had a whole bunch of large SoS numbers but I suspect we will see another one at some point in this relief rally.

  162. Gary

    Not that I’m real big on patterns but the S&P appears to be forming a bear flag.

    These panic sell offs like we just saw almost always get tested and usually see a lower low before the bottom is formed.

    Remember the flash crash? After a volatile bounce the low was taken out during a left translated daily cycle.

    I’m pretty sure we will see the same thing happen this time also.

  163. pimaCanyon

    DG,

    I agree with Poly that in order for the study to cover all the bases, someone would need to compile a list of SoS number for EVERY TRADING DAY, and then go back and see if there are correlations between market tops and unusually large SoS numbers on the days leading up to those tops.

    However, even without doing that research, the top that had very large SoS number preceding it (Dec 09 top) would lead me to be cautious if/when we start seeing those kinds of numbers again.

    Poly has pointed out that even though GLD is on the top of today’s list, that number is small compared to the total dollar volume that is being traded today. So it may be that for these SoS numbers to give any kind of predictive value, we would need to see something well north of 100 million, and maybe several days like that over a period of a week or two.

    It will be interesting to see what kind of numbers we get as we approach the top of this C wave.

  164. pimaCanyon

    Does anyone have/keep a spreadsheet of SoS and BoW numbers on GLD they would be willing to share?

    Another point: –IF– it turns out that large SoS numbers do precede tops in gold, then it’s likely we would also see SLV, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and individual mining companies on the SoS list along with GLD.

    The “study” could get complicated.

  165. DG

    Gary: I of course don’t want to hassle you but you never did respond to my previous post. If you don’t want to, that’s fine I suppose, but I thought to give it one more shot:

    “Gary: You have said that only SPY has predictive value, but at the same time you say you have not seriously looked at anything else (except maybe the Q’s). You may be right, but without study this seems more like an article of faith than rigorous conclusion on your part, no?”

  166. Poly

    Pima,

    I’ve got to say the huge GLD SOS before that major 09 top is a clue to some predictive value. Although I would also have expected similar numbers in Nov 2010, that was a substantial top.
    But with a study of everyday these numbers are not worth much.

    I guess we could all chip in a burrito each if somebody would undertake the “study”

  167. Gary

    DG,
    Sorry I missed that.

    I haven’t actually gone through and tested everything but what I have done is look to see if large SoS days in other securities have led to sell offs.

    They almost never did unless it was accompanied by SoS in the SPY.

    Since 75% of the market will move with the SPY unless the S&P corrects large SoS days on anything else don’t usually amount to anything.

  168. Hot Rod

    Pose it to Tyler over at ZH (SoS study). That dude could whip it out or maybe he even has it in his back pocket somewhere…

  169. sucky sucky

    Gary,

    Bernanke has said on a number of occasions that he is not printing money in his execution of QE2 and that the amount of currency in circulation is not changing.

    Assuming he is not lying, can you comment on how this jibes with your premise that he is printing trillions of dollars.

    Thanks much, I’m a huge fan of your work.

  170. pimaCanyon

    sucky,

    Ben also claims that QE has resulted buoying up the stock market, but at the same time is NOT causing commodity inflation?

    That money goes ONLY into stocks, but none of it goes into commodities? It is causing inflation of stock prices but has NOTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH INFLATION OF COMMODITY PRICES????

    What is this guy smoking and what are the dupes who actually believe him smoking?

  171. Gary

    If we were 15-20 weeks into an intermediate cycle I might pay attention to the GLD money flows. Even if we were 20+ days into a daily cycle I might take note.

    But only 7 weeks into an intermediate cycle and only 5 days into the daily cycle with the dollar breaking down, one is just wasting their time watching the SoS at this point.

  172. sophia

    hello Gary,

    once again, well done with your analysis, it is pretty spot on!
    would you mind reminding me where for the $ index in the collapse of 2008? I don’t remember if is was around 72ish…thanks

  173. Poly

    Dollar taking a dump alright and still no press to be found 🙂

    Gold $17 and Silver $0.60 away from their high’s, once we break out it “could” be lights out.

  174. sophia

    thanks Gary…I like your analysis regarding the behavior of the stock markets if the dollar takes a beating…it was what happened in the old days with the currency crisis in the French Franc and I think that it has never been seen for the dollar, so it could be fun to ride!!

  175. DG

    Sold my DFJ. Sold my HYG. Am keeping the NLY I posted and bought at 17.40. Buying into panics is a great thing to do. If we all go up in smoke it will come from a currency crisis. Japan was too headline-y for me to not buy into the drop. More $$ for AGQ!

  176. ALEX

    DG

    I hear ya, I bought (and posted here) buying MNEAF after its panic sell , and its up 25% in 3 days.

    Good volume though and somewhat of a reverse H&S , so i expect a break out from here.

  177. ...at ease

    Does anyone have a conservative estimate or best guess of what the percentage gain will be to the top of the C? I am now where I was before the last down cycle, so just trying to figure out what we can expect going forward.

  178. coolkevs

    Once again, you would think that Gold, Silver, SLW, AGQ, etc., etc., would be hitting new highs with the dollar hitting new 52-week lows. Today, it is a low-volume lovefest across all markets. The divergences I am seeing is one reason why I’m cautious on the metals at the moment before I commit to coin down to the 72.5 DXY level…

  179. pimaCanyon

    eamonn,

    Well, today AGQ has them all beat. You’d have to look at performance over a few weeks, say since the recent IT low–maybe plot a graph of them all–to see how it’s doing in the current runup.

    I would compare it with SIL, GDXJ, NUGT, and DGP for starters.

  180. DG

    Yeah, but Alex, that’s all well and good, but you also absolutely guaranteed me that AXU would be over $10 by now. I know you said you “hope” and you “think” but I know you meant “guarantee” and I am holding you responsible for your bad call (even though AXU up 10% today). So there.

  181. Gary

    Nothing more mysterious than simple human emotions. If you are afraid to commit do you think anyone else is any different?

    Now you know why cycle bottoms don’t just sling shot back to new highs overnight.

    Humans have to overcome their fear. That takes a few days at least.

  182. David

    …at ease,

    As Paul Tudor Jones once said, people would do a whole lot better if they thought less about how much they are going to make and more about how much they have at risk.

    Don’t count the money you haven’t made yet. It makes you psychologically book gains that don’t exist yet. This is destabilizing.

    Just pay attention to what’s happening with the dollar, and when it reaches the sell point, you’ll find out how much you have.

  183. DG

    Coolkevs: The markets just don’t work that way. During a move the divergences you point out have some predictive value, but not when you toss a correction in between. I have put a lot of time into divergences and from my perspective they need to be within a move or rally and not versus a level from a previous one. Doesn’t mean we can’t have a dip but I never place a trade based on what you have pointed out. Just my view on it.

  184. DG

    Yeah, Alex, here’s your cut and pasted quote:

    from 3/12/11:
    “I guarantee you that AXU will be over $10/share within 72 hours. If it isn’t I will buy you a new house, or perhaps even something valuable instead if you prefer.”

  185. ...at ease

    David, Thanks I agree with everything you said, I am just trying to hang onto to what I have and watch that $ day and night. Hubby keeps asking me if he can buy his place in the Villages yet. 🙂 I keep telling him, I don’t know yet, give me a few months before I can tell you and right now the housing market is still bottoming, so no rush in buying a house.

  186. David

    at ease…,

    I was about to delete my comment because it seemed presumptuous, but it seems you took it in the right spirit. I only said it because we all find ourselves thinking that way on days like today, myself included.

    Tell your husband not to worry. He’ll get his house and then some 😉

  187. ALEX

    hehe DG

    Wow , When did I start drinking THAT much! I am a man of my word, however!! So…

    Your new house is a beautiful doll house that my niece just finished making out of Popsicle sticks! Its a BEAUTY!! Purple and Pink!!I’m just glad that she’s willing to sell it for $5

    Place your home address on this blog , and I’m sure you’ll get something in the mail SOON 🙂

  188. ...at ease

    David, I convinced him to pull his funds out of his Govt TSP and put it in Fidelity self directed IRA and in GOLD / SILVER, as he would do much better with the market crash coming. He agreed, hesitant of course, however, I told him I thought I could do much better for him and the funds would be in his hands to move with faster towards his goal and out of the govts reach. And that was before I found Gary and this blog site full of wise folks! Much more confident now that it will happen for him.

  189. DG

    Man, I wonder what the silver shorts are gonna do?! Reminds me of a cute line I heard when I was in the business. About a short squeeze:

    He who sells what isn’t his’n
    Buys it back or goes to prison

  190. alex

    at ease,

    If it helps, I am targeting $43-48 for silver and gold $1,620 to $1,680. I subscribe to a few services other than Gary’s and these targets keep appearing. Like Gary and many of you, I will be watching the dollar carefully and any noises from Wash DC that they see a problem with a crashing dollar.

    Alex in Montana

  191. DG

    Alex in Montana: Would it work for you to change your sign-in name to AlexInMontana, AlexM, or something? I appreciate you sing it Alex in Montana to avoid confusion with our junior miner trader Alex, but a name change would help. Thanks.

  192. Hot Rod

    What the heck happened around 3:36pm EST? I was watching the 1 minute chart for SIK11 (May Silver future contract) and it went ballistic for about 5 seconds, where it shot up to 36.28, went down to 36.10 and settled at 36.20.

    I understand when it happens in 1 direction with a big buy or big sell order, but it dod both at the same time….

    Very strange looking candle.

  193. ...at ease

    Thanks Alex, that helps, gives me a window to look at. I appreciate you sharing that with me. going to put up a picture of the little house hubby wants. We just looked at it last month and he wanted it so bad, but convinced him to wait a year until he is closer to retiring and gains are in the pocket and tax money since it will come from his retirement account.

  194. Silverman

    David,

    Your advice was spot on. I have only been able to adopt this approach recently but I still occasionally find myself daydreaming about the big pot o’ gold at the end of the rainbow (aka C-wave).

  195. Wes

    PC,

    I think you and DG have been misled by the OEX option traders because most of their trades in this unusually straight up for so long stock market have been very short term.

    Look at what they are taking home with them. There is little ambiguity in the OEX open interest P/C ratios. Where nearer the first of the year they were bullish, they turned decidedly bearish starting about early February.

  196. catbird

    SCOTTRADE (my former broker) is at it again.

    I am not out of the woods. Their central office LIED TO ME Friday when they told me the erroneous short sale (a sale I never authorized) was cancelled.

    Earlier this afternoon they raided my new brokerage account at IB and took out the shares they need to cover the short–and then some.

    I have been on the phone with them–they understand what happened but the guy in compliance I was talking to needs to “talk to his manager” and call me back.

    The bottom line is this–It is not the customer’s job to cancel a plain vanilla market SELL order I entered at my Scottrade account in February for shares that were transferred to IB back on March 4!!! Scottrade “sold” the shares on March 15–even though my account there didn’t have any shares to sell! All my equity went to IB on March 4!

    Guys, I hate to come crying to you but I have no confidence that when Scott calls me back they will budge. They are AWFUL!

  197. David

    catbird,

    That’s ridiculous.

    A “sell” order is not the same thing as a “borrow to sell short” order, at least on any trading platform I’ve ever seen.

    Someone ****ed up and is trying to cover his own ass and make you pick up the tab.

    Make it clear to them that you are going to press your case to the full extent of the law and file a complaint and/or seek damages.

  198. Daniel

    Catbird–
    that sucks–
    If I was with Scottrade I would leave due to what they did to you!!
    It is their error and I am shocked IB sent the shares back– (that should not have happened!)

  199. Poly

    Catbird,

    You mentioned something about a “sell short” order. If that’s what happended, that sounds like an error on their behalf.

    I’m not an authority, but if this was just a plain sell order, I would have thought you were liable to provide the collateral for that trade. I’m not aware of anything stopping you from placing a sell order without the security on hand, it can be provided before settlement.

    Now I’m not sure they can “reach” into the new IB account for that collateral, that seems like a stretch.

  200. MrMiyagi

    catbird,
    I don’t understand how this happened, I am with RBC and on the order page there’s “Sell” and “Short Sell”.
    If I put a “Sell” order with no stocks, it rejects it. Some twit won’t convert it into a short sale order and the computer sure as hell won’t.
    I wish I could help but I can’t. At worst, at some point on the D wave, you will make money.

  201. catbird

    David,

    Bingo. I think an incompetent employee did this. Since AGQ has rocketed since March 15, they want the CUSTOMER to pay for their error!

    Either that or the rules in their computer system are INCREDIBLY messed up.

    The really shady thing is I got off the phone with their compliance dept at their central office 2 hours ago and he has still not called back as promised.

    For Scottrade to SELL shares in my account, the shares need to ACTUALLY BE THERE. They weren’t because the ACATS full position transfer took effect March 4, as Interactive Brokers’ records (and Scottrade’s prove.)

    Hell, as of March 4, I could have sold EVERY share I owned through IB! Scottrade didn’t have ’em to sell!

  202. ALEX

    CATBIRD

    Is the Broker that you are now using saying that its legit? I know you have to deal with scottrade, but just wondering if you tell IB what happened and they say its not right , you could then go back to Scottrade and explain that other brokers agree that it should be corrected ny Scottrade.

  203. Nike Boy2008

    Hi everyone,

    this is an open question to all..

    as most of you might already know, i’m in my early 20s and I don’t have much money to work with…

    Most of you on this board are wiser and wealthier than me…how did you guys to where you are now? what is the best way to accumulate money? I’m sure before you all came into investing, you made a lot of money in another profession

    any words of advise for me?

  204. catbird

    Poly,

    As of March 4, my Scott account was totally empty.

    I had a plain conditional sell order entered from back in February.

    March 15 rolls around, and the market opens way down. At 9:30, Scott “sells” the shares in that sell order EVEN THOUGH back in Feb I entered it as a sell order, not a sell short order.

    There is a difference on all their order entry screens: you can choose sell or sell short.

    So the sale was made March 15. It settled Friday (they lied when I called them Friday and told me I was A-OK)

    There is NO WAY the sale could have gone through on March 15, because:
    1) My Scott account didn’t have the shares
    2) The order pending was a SELL order, not a sell SHORT order.

  205. MrMiyagi

    Nike Boy2008,
    Don’t waste your money on crap like fancy shoes, flashy cars, clothes and assorted “status symbols”.
    Pay off your debts, especially mortgage (if you have one).
    Invest wisely, don’t follow every fool and their soon-to-be-parted Mad Money.

  206. Romeo Bravo

    NIke Boy:

    Don’t spend to much money on things that depreciate (expensive cars, fancy vacations, etc.) Put money into things that appreciate (expanding your skills, education, bull market stocks, etc.)

  207. Wes

    DG,

    Congratulations on your DFJ entry. I wonder what percent of your net worth you were able to risk on the trade.

    This has always been the sticking point with me. With a lot of effort I have felt confident enough to up my risk level enough to make maybe 50% per year, or a little more.

    Since I’ve been with Gary, this has all changed for the better. Now I am able to risk 130% on a trade with more confidence than I once had with a much smaller risk amount. This has been a real revelation to me, and I’d dislike going back to my old ways.

    You seem less inclined to take advantage of this situation, for reasons I clearly don’t understand. While I respect your way of doing things, I do think you’re missing one of the great periods in your life where you could be doing considerably better by being more aggressive.

  208. Romeo Bravo

    Also, don’t forget, no one (especially employers) look out for you first. They look out for themselves first. Make sure you take care of # 1.

  209. catbird

    Sorry to keep bothering everyone with my struggle, but these people are either incredibly ignorant (scary ignorant for a major broker) or malicious weasels who want to blame THEIR erroneous trade on the customer by pretending that the customer authorized them to sell short.

  210. Poly

    Catbird,

    I trade with Schwab and I know for a fact I do NOT have to have the shares to SELL. It’s happened to me before when I sold thinking it was from my IRA account, but instead was set to my margin account. I just tried it, this is the message I receive:

    “This security is not currently held in this account.

    If placing this order is not your intention, click on “Do Not Place Order” or “Change Order”.

    If placing this order is your intention, click on “Continue” to indicate how the additional shares will be delivered by the settlement date.”

  211. Silverman

    Catbird

    I would assume that there is some type of settlement time or “clearing period” for the transfer that Scottrade just initiated. I would contact IB and ask them to put a hold on those funds ASAP until you can get this settled (especially if they want to keep your account).

    Good luck!

  212. Nike Boy2008

    catbird,

    sorry…i started typing my post and then went for coffee and then came back and posted it

    I didn’t see your post about the scottrade issue…my intention wasn’t to switch topics or anything…

  213. Poly

    The Sell Short VS Sell order is the “gotcha” on this one. Surely your account history shows the original order and the condition, this could not be something they altered after the fact. What does this show?

  214. catbird

    Poly,

    OK, that makes sense…seeing as how you have margin.

    This old Scott account was margin too.

    But here’s why they’re wrong: I was never given the opportunity to OK the trade like Schwab!! They just went ahead and did it.

    Of course, I wasn’t online at the time when this happened at market open on March 15.

  215. ALEX

    NIKE

    From me, I started out quite small too , but in time (If you can CUT YOUR LOSSES and increase your gains or let them run)…it adds up. At first , I WASTED money wishing a “Good Company” would look better tomorrow.Learn from your losses.

    This sounds basic , but I started with $3000.00 , doubled it , doubled it , doubled it , doubled it , and so on…spending only what I made at my other job.

    It goes $3000 – $6000 – $12000-$24,000

    but eventually , its $100,000
    then $200,000
    then $1/2 million , then 1 million $ , if you are careful..

    For me , it was DONT LET YOUR LOSSES RIDE , or $3000 becomes $1500 , then $800 , then $400.00

    Watch your leverage.

  216. catbird

    I know for a fact it was a conditional SELL order (not sell short, they give you that option too)

    Basically I wanted to sell if gold dropped below Gary’s stop.

  217. David

    Earn, save, invest, in that order.

    The good news is that if you’re young and motivated, you can build up a bankroll and build it up as you learn. This way, when you make the inevitable mistakes that everyone makes, they won’t cost you too much money. As you amass more money, you will be able to take larger risks knowing that you’ve got years of earning potential in front of you.

    Take this time to read a lot about investing. The first book I ever read is a book that almost everyone in the business hates — “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” by Burton Malkiel. I recommend it to everyone who is just starting out. It is a great overview and teaches you a healthy skepticism about all the BS peddled by the financial industry — particularly technical analysis (that’s why everyone hates it). The book saved me a fortune by keeping me away from market tops in tech and real estate. Having said that, the book’s prescription — that it is best to stay in low-cost index funds — probably doesn’t work in this environment, because stocks are in a secular bear market. You need to adapt your style to the environment you’re in.

  218. David

    From there I would look at Market Wizards and its sequel, and read up on George Soros, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Warren Buffett. Each one has a style that’s specific to their personality. The key is to find ideas that work for you and adapt them to your own style. Probably the most important thing all of them talk about is risk management.

    Spend your time reading and learning from the greats and less time drawing lines on charts and you should do very well.

  219. LowTax

    Nike, like the others said: don’t put money into depreciating assets, improve your jobs skills/wages, don’t waste money on status symbols and learn to live simply. These things will serve you for the rest of your live.

  220. ...at ease

    Nike Boy2008, First off you are already on the right track knowing you don’t know everything and asking for advice. Second, MrMyagi and Romeo gave excellent advice. Invest in yourself and skill and become independent working, don’t rely on any system to take care of you and yours and don’t throw away your money on things that won’t bring you lasting rewards. Measure twice,(and check it again), cut once, to ensure you make no unnecessary mistakes. Also realize you are limited by your own perceptions and you need to open your mind to new ideas and embrace them to open your mind to all opportunities as they come to you. Any mistakes learn from them. Other than that, study hard and learn well at whatever you choose to do. Look at Gary as an inspiration.

  221. William

    I use Scottrade and have margin. You have to choose either “Sell” or “Sell Short” when entering any order to execute. I just tried to sell shares of a stock that I do not own and this is the message I got:

    “Unable to accept the order because your account does not have enough shares available for sale. You may already have open sell orders in this security, or may not own enough shares in this security to complete this transaction. Please review your open orders and position to determine the amount available for sale. If you have further questions, please contact your local branch office.”

    According to this error message if that was indeed a plain “Sell” order the system should not have allowed that to go through.

  222. Poly

    Catbird,

    I work in the financial software industry, so here is a possible theory.

    When you placed the conditional order, obviously the securities existed, so you order passed the pre-check.

    Then when the conditional order hit, the system essentially didn’t know how to process that sell order because it was written with the assumption the security would always be present. Basically a bug in their order system then interpreted it to be a Sell Short order due to the missing expected security.

    You should still have the log of your original conditional order. If it’s NOT a Sell Short order, that should be more than enough to get you off.

  223. ...at ease

    Nike, also the biggest mistake I see young folks making is eating out all the time. Not only is fast food and restaurant food not healthy, it is very expensive. Think of all the money you could save on not eating out. One meal out, you could eat 4 times or more if you made the same meal in family size and then divided it up in portions and freeze the portions. Plus you will eat healthier and have more money to invest. It doesn’t take that long to cook a meal at home. If you have a laptop, you can watch the market at the kitchen counter, I do. And forget coffee out, that I can’t believe people pay for. All that money you could invest and multiply. (Not saying you do this, but if you do, it would be a positive change). 🙂 It’s the little habits that can change your life.

  224. Gary

    Nike,
    Testosterone will be your worst enemy at this stage of your life.

    It caused Robert to blow up his account a couple months back.

    If you can control the urge to go all in you can easily be worth millions by the time your our age.

    Will you make the same mistake that almost all young men make and blow out your account and have to start over or will you be that one in a 100 that does something different and accomplishes something great?

    This is a decision only you can make.

  225. pimaCanyon

    catbird,

    really sorry to hear that. Just another example of how large corporations no longer care about their customers, they are interested in only one thing. Used to be, a company did care about their customer partly out of self interest–because they cared about their reputation and about referrals. Today “reputation” is taken care of by slick advertising and sound bites (lies).

    Do you have (or can you get) a copy of the original order confirmation? Also, does Rottrade (‘scuse me, I mean Scottrade) have documentation online that explains order execution. Do they have doc that describes how a sell is different than a sell short and how a sell will not execute if you don’t have the shares to sell.

    Seems to me if you can provide them with documentation that clearly states a Sell is not a Sell Short along with a copy of your order, they should eat this error themselves.

    My opinion is that this was a failure of their online trading system, either an outright programming error or an error of omission in the design of that system (that is, the programmer was not told that he needed to program for this particular situation and what to do if it arose)

    Last resort: You may have to get in touch with a lawyer on this.

    Good luck!

  226. DG

    Catbird: Completely bogus. You owe them not one penny. Go to arbitration and you will get it all back, plus ask for extra for your time and emotional distress. They are trying to steal from you to cover their error. Your part in this was zero. A lawyer may even take it on contingency and get you a small pile. If they have any brains (and maybe they don’t) threatening legal action may get you a quick resolution. They have absolutely NO case!

  227. Hot Rod

    Nike,

    In life, we always will need a little bit of luck no matter how much skill we have and our drive to put ourselves in the best situation possible and seize opportunity.

    Let me tell you that you are super freaking lucky to have found this Blog. I have been into silver for almost 3 years and didn’t find Gary’s site until Jan 2011.

    I was “lucky” that he advertised his $10 for January special and of course am still a subscriber and am glued to my screen (CPU, iPhone, wherever I am) when he releases his daily (paid) report.

    If you are truly in need and have some money to invest, I would strongly recommend you spring for the $25 a month (or specials) and get on board.

    After you read the report, you can come to this Blog and if you need entry/exit help the nice folks here may help you “decode” what gary is saying if you have difficulties.

    I don’t know if you can get prior reports before the month you subscribe, maybe Gary can help out with that.

    Rodney

  228. ALEX

    DG

    It might take me all night to figure that one out lol

    Its close to what Steven Tyler said recently while in a lightly heated debate…

    “If I agree with you now , we’ll both be wrong!”

  229. pimaCanyon

    Poly,

    With regard to carbird’s situation, I think the same thing: a bug in the online order execution. Something that nobody thought of because it wouldn’t normally happen, so the programmers didn’t write the code to handle it properly.

    The edit regarding whether or not you have the shares in your account probably happens ONLY when you’re entering the order. When the order is execute, that edit is not performed again because somebody erroneously thought we’ve already checked for that, so why go thru that same logic again.

  230. pimaCanyon

    Or even this: that once the order is ok’d by the user, the order execution system stores both a sell order and a sell short order the same way! (Which is stupid, but it sure sounds like that’s what they’re doing.)

  231. catbird

    Poly and Pima,

    I agree, and I am looking for where my past order records are stored.

    DG,

    Thanks.

    Scott has now left me hanging for THREE HOURS while the compliance guy “talks to his manager.”

    I will definitely mention arbitration.

  232. DG

    Wes: I have 60% of my net worth in AGQ, That leaves me some room for other trades. I also just discovered Gary’s method and website a year or so ago. It takes me a little while to gain enough confidence to go all in.I did well last year and will do much better this one. I suspect, if this all works out, the next C-wave will see me leveraged. (In spite of what SB says, I will still be alive for the next C-wave. I’m only 55, which, though an old man for this blog, ought to leave me a few years, eh?)

    As for the OEX traders, I have not really been “misled” in that it is just one data point for me. As for the analysis of open interest, the effect of 5¢ options, etc. I let jason at sentimentrader run that stuff for me. He measures the OEX traders patterns about six different ways, and I check his site every day. He’s better than i ever will be at such number crunching, etc.

  233. ALEX

    and NIKE

    I agree with Davids first sentence a lot, and low tax, at ease , GARY has seen it all and again the warning on over leverage

    I recommend William O’Neils books. He is a successful investor with a lot of good ideas and thoughts for a young investor about 1)when to buy with minimum downside risk 2)cutting losses near 8% if the trade goes against you and tech analysis that gave me great gains personally 🙂

    I also liked ‘Market Wizards’ as a good read.

  234. TZ(4404)

    Gold had a rare ($5) gap up open last night and has probably been sluggish today for that reason.

    Systems and traders are generally programmed to trade those gaps and undoubtedly there is some smart money short until it is closed – probably in low volume overnight.

  235. Poly

    Absolutely Pima, it does sound that way.
    It’s amazing how many assumptions are made in coding to get around building contingencies. I manage a team of developers, it’s funny this came up, by I’m constantly telling them “assumption is the mother of all screw ups”.

  236. ...at ease

    Poly, I used to write training manuals for new systems being developed in telecom and my biggest issue with developers was they would say user error or ignorance. And I would say, it has to be defined. You can’t assume a user will know what you are thinking as you develop.

  237. Poly

    Nike,

    Not to be so cliché, at your age, I would be reading non-stop, getting better educated and obtaining life experience (work and worldly), don’t try to make money overnight, but also do not be afraid to try new things or fail, as long as it’s a learned experience.

    Pursue what you love doing, don’t do it for the money, you will find ways to make it doing what you love. If you’re not doing what you love, CHANGE NOW, before the wife, kids, mortgage come, it’s too late then 🙂

    Master compounding theory. Start saving, every little helps at your age. Sure you can earn more, but you can ALWAYS spend more than you earn, live well within your means.
    Read the book “the richest man in Babylon”.

  238. Wes

    DG,

    Inexperience with Gary’s system is obviously your reason for being cautious.

    I reviewed Gary’s results in detail from the old logs (and in some cases special e-mails of old logs not publicly available). So I guess I found my confidence in him there.

    After the review I decided “this guy is better than I am”. That doesn’t happen often on public blogs.

    You confidence will come, and you’ve got plenty of time. My advice is that you not get hung up if you don’t agree with Gary’s fundamentals.

    When he’s wrong, he’s quick to admit it, but don’t expect to win the fundamental fight.

  239. ...at ease

    My biggest sell on Gary was my BS detector. I didnt’ get any readings from his SMTP, just pure reasoning. Best money invested in my education for trading and investing.

  240. rick

    To all:

    I am looking for a Merrill Lynch mutual fund that uses precious metals. My dad’s family trust wants to move money out of Muni fund and into something else. I am trying hard to get the other family members to consider a precious metals fund. The trustee likes (feels comfortable) with Merrill Lynch, so thats why I am asking about them. Any suggestions?

  241. Wes

    Nike,

    If you are going to take up trading, leave your pride at the front door, and embrace losing to cut losses as much as you embrace winning.

    If I was going to give one piece of advice to anyone entering trading it would be to buy weakness and sell strength (especially when you don’t fell like it’s the right thing to do).

    Do this over and over and over, until coping with the results of this strategy becomes second nature.

    Do this until your first instinct is to buy when you see weakness and sell when you see strength.

    If you can get good at this one thing, I think you can be a success.

    Of course there are many other things to learn, also. But this is the fundamental one IMHO.

    I can tell you in all candor that I wasted my life working.

  242. TZ(4404)

    >A “sell” order is not the same thing as a “borrow to sell short” order, at least on any trading platform I’ve ever seen.

    At IB a sell is just a sell. “Sell Short” is special double-check for mass market brokers so their clients realize what they are doing. It still just ends up selling.

    If you sell more than you own you are negative and thus short. There is no special ‘sell short’ order on exchanges.

  243. pimaCanyon

    Lillie,

    The gold and silver futures markets close at a different time of day than the stock market. AGQ, even though it’s an ETF, is considered a stock because it trades as a stock. So how much it’s up is compared to where it closed on Friday.

    You need to be comparing apples to apples, so I would look at how much SLV is up to compare to how much AGQ is up. Percentage wise AGQ should be up double what SLV is.

  244. TheBookGuy

    Gary said,
    “Blogger Gary said…

    Nike,
    Testosterone will be your worst enemy at this stage of your life.

    It caused Robert to blow up his account a couple months back.

    If you can control the urge to go all in you can easily be worth millions by the time your our age.

    Will you make the same mistake that almost all young men make and blow out your account and have to start over or will you be that one in a 100 that does something different and accomplishes something great?

    This is a decision only you can make.”

    Or Testosterone can work with you. I’m 34 with the testosterone levels of an 18 year old and I believe that is what allows me to buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying. All I needed was the knowledge Gary has, I have the “balls” to do it!

  245. Silverman

    Catbird,

    I suggest that you point out to Scottrade that they potentially have a compliance (i.e. quality) issue within their system which you will bring to the attention of the regulatory authorities (possible SEC in this case)which could result in a regulatory system audit. I’d be willing to bet that if you’re speaking to anyone at a management level they will quickly see things your way.

  246. Daniel

    Catbird–
    Scottrade should fold like a pup tent when you threaten them because they are DEAD WRONG! They can easily “bust” the trade but they do not want to because it went against them. (If it went their way they wouldn’t have a problem “busting” the trade!!)

  247. TommyD

    All,
    Talk about a gift,,, last week I told a broker not to let my bonds renew. Today I got a dump into my cash fund giving me about 17% fresh cash to deploy.

    Now I feel like a newbee and not knowing when or what to deploy the cash into….

    I am a wussy, plain and simpleton to boot…

    Tom

  248. Wes

    I’m not a fan of contingency orders. While in no way do I think Catbird did anything wrong, I’ll bet using the contingency order somehow plays into this.

    In addition, someone on this board had shares sold as a result of a bad print on GLD a short while ago. When something like that happens, time and sales establishes your correct position quickly on direct stop orders, but who knows what happens on contingency orders. I sure don’t.

    I’m sure Gary doesn’t want to establish the proper stop for every PM security, and I don’t blame him.

    But, everyone here is capable of placing a stop on their securities at a fraction of a percent below the lowest level they traded on 3/15, and that’s all there is to it.

    Perhaps Gary would address this issue, as I don’t want to mislead anyone.

  249. Wes

    Catbird,

    You might want to initiate a “trade inquiry” with your old broker about the disputed trade.

    While these are usually used to establish that the trade took place at the proper price, you want the trade inquiry to determine whether the trade should have occurred in the first place.

    In addition, someone (I think not you) should take “market action” to correct the situation, because if left unaddressed the loss on the AGQ short position will just grow over time if our thesis about PM prices is correct.

  250. catbird

    Poly, this advice is golden:

    “Pursue what you love doing, don’t do it for the money, you will find ways to make it doing what you love. If you’re not doing what you love, CHANGE NOW, before the wife, kids, mortgage come, it’s too late then :)”

  251. ddn3f

    Nike,

    I just turned 28 and sad to say I have blown my account out once already. I am just starting over. Good thing my wife and I live below our means so that I have money to start all over again. I am always glad to hear the more experienced guys give their wisdom. Keep the tips coming, and I hope Gary can keep us young guys from being greedy and overleveraged. I have to keep reminding myself, don’t be greedy.

  252. catbird

    Silverman,

    Great tip about mentioning an SEC audit!

    Daniel,

    You’re right.

    Scottrade’s compliance guy said he was going to talk to his manager at 2:00pm this afternoon when I finished making my case to him, and that then he would call me back.

    He never did. I’m afraid they’re circling the wagons.

    I called their HQ back and explained, and they assured me I will get a call back in the a.m.

    Again guys, sorry for laying this on you, but sometimes venting is therapeutic.

  253. catbird

    Wes,

    re: asking for a trade inquiry–

    You know what’s crazy? Scottrade RECOGNIZED their error in selling my shares on March 15. I know this because when I talked to their central office Friday evening, they checked my account, and someone had gone in and “busted” the trade.

    What I mean is, my trade confirmations show that the SALE of the shares was cancelled, and they were bought back the same day–March 15–for the SAME price they were sold! Both the erroneous sale and the buy that corrected it settled Friday.

    Hence, they and I thought I was all clear.

    Fast forward to this afternoon, when they go into my IB account and claw back all those shares–and then some.

    This is an erroneous short sale that went against them, and they came to me to be made whole. *I* am the one who needs to be made whole.

  254. Romeo Bravo

    Jayhawk: Yeah, TOS had one horrible mess up day today. Showing me multiple tickers symbols for some jr. miners, huge declines for 0 share lot positions, etc.
    This is jut not acceptable. I didn’t call them, knowing today would be crazy on the phones and I’m happy with all my positions, no need to change.

    Did you get through? What did they say?

  255. Wes

    catbird,

    If you’ve got a trade confirmation showing the trade was either offset or never occurred, then you need to talk to them about the theft of your assets (and theft is the word I would use).

    I’d say they have the problem.

  256. Jayhawk

    I put this on BlueChipBulldog regarding what happened when I got in touch with TOS-

    “Finally got a hold of some smart ass prick customer service/trader and he was non apologetic, apathetic, rude. I asked him if his firm would be covering the new pair of underwear and pants I would need as well as the medical expenses for the heart attack I suffered when I opened my account today. I told him I would be sending the bill shortly.”

  257. Wes

    Poly,

    As a reference point if we’re going to try a put option on AGQ during the D wave, I bought some AGQ 200 calls the other day by splitting the bid and ask. I offered 1/2 the spread.

    The order stayed open for 7 minutes, and then was accepted. During the entire time neither the bid or ask changed.

    So, these securities can be had at significantly less than the ask.

  258. Robert

    I know on this blog this stuff is hardly ever talked about-but I find this very interesting about silver
    “This is the first time in silver comex history that we have seen an amount still standing equal to the amount already served. There are 8 days left so an average of 560,000 oz must be serviced on each and every trading day until the end of this month. It is quite obvious that the comex does not have the silver available for servicing our patient longs.”
    To me the comex is in big trouble and that is the main reason silver has been having so much trouble getting over the $36 mark –They are doing everthing they can ( JPM ) to drive the price down-
    The facts speak for themselves

  259. DG

    Catbird: I believe you have no financial risk here. You may need to do a lot of cajoling and arguing, but in the end you will get your money back, at least. I’d like to see them pay a nice penalty. Wes is right. Knowingly taking someone else’s property is theft. I’d call the SECC now and get the ball rolling, and keep them posted, such as “Spoke to Mr. X at the SEC today at (202) 457-8910. He encouraged me to send him documentation…” etc.

  260. David

    Don’t be surprised if they don’t pay a penalty.

    The SEC works for the brokerage industry. That should be clear from the fact that they have brought no charges against anyone as a result of the financial crisis.

    They are on the side of Scottrade.

    This is not specific to you, catbird, as I am very much on your side in this and hope you get justice. But its interesting how people constantly complain about “Big Government” and government regulation right up until the
    moment when their interests collide with a corporation.
    Then they want government to protect them.

  261. Edwin

    i’d buy on any weakness at this point. if they take it down temporarily so be it.

    the setup is so perfect, you’re just getting cute if you’re questioning this move.. i hope it doesn’t run away to fast.. $10 moves in gold are nothing.. i don’t mind a +-$5 dollar day, low volatility to fly under the radar of people screens. at least for a daily cycle. gold can trade a range of +- 13% that’s $182 dollars. (1582 – 1218)

    i’m in it for the long haul and don’t leverage to the moon because it would seriously destroy someone if can’t take that volatility.

    let the games begin.

  262. Glen

    Nike,

    I’ll add a little advice that I don’t think was covered by the others.

    Save as much as you can, and maximize your Roth IRA. The gains in a Roth are not taxable, which makes a big difference. I expect the government will close this “loophole” some day, but for now it is open.

  263. Edwin

    platinum is made some nice moves today too and is lagging gold and silver, silver is gaining quite a bit of ground. but imho it’s overbought.

    so if you want to trade platinum , it hasn’t caught as much attention yet.

    there will be a take down at 1468 gold though.. so be aware.

  264. Gary

    In a final C-wave advance overbought is kind of a meaningless term unless one is trying to day trade very short term wiggles.

  265. Gary

    Platinum and Palladium are also tied to the auto industry. If the economy is starting to roll over like I think it is, and with auto plants in Japan closed the demand side of the equation is probably impaired in the platinum group.

  266. catbird

    Miyagi,

    Thanks, but I think you’re thinking of “Scotiabank.”

    The POS broker that is trying to screw me is Scottrade.

    (Gary’s community here is still wonderful)

  267. Hot Rod

    Catbird,

    Don’t forget to log a case with the Better Business Bureau (BBB). You might actually have more luck there – they pretty quickly go directly to the organization, at the root of the issue and try to mediate a settlement for us consumers.

    I did have success once.

    My 2 cents to you is just stick to the facts of what the definition of the orders are and what should not be possible. If they did a trade not possible, stick to it.

    Rodney

  268. Silverman

    Alex,

    Can you recommend a specific William O’Neil book to start with? e.g. that would cover the things in the 2 points you mention.

    Thanks!

  269. Poly

    Thanks Wes, that’s good to know. Your “sucked right out” analagy (something to that effect) is exactly what I’ve witnessed to, kind of spooky. No trades and the second you bid the “right number” it’s gone in micro seconds.

    I played the AGQ calls last nov/Dec and sold literally the day they popped. The premiums go insane, so I figure right at the very top, the asking price will be a real steal. IMO, best to pick the option before hand and try to buy during the final parabolic spike for a great fill. May have to witness some drawdown, but to be in before any real drop may pay very big dividends. You planning on buying before the top, or waiting for confirmation on the d wave?

  270. ddn3f

    Moneyman,

    Yes it was because of high leverage. That testosterone that Gary speaks of. Damn it I was right on silver, just bad timing, so blew out my account.

  271. DG

    Catbird: Great Keep a log of everything you do and what the respoinses are That is, at xx:xx o’clock I emailed the SEC the following note, “…” etc. Stay unemotional and stick to facts. Hopefully you have been doing this with Scottrade. The log will show you made an effort to resolve it and they ignored you. May be useful later. Reconstruct the history now, in writing, if you haven;t done it thus far.

    Important is that they told you the trade was busted (who said it at what time/date?) That alone already hangs them. They are toast and will see that soon I believe.

  272. LowTax

    Gary, am I correct in interpreting your last series of nightly reports are calling for a decoupling of miners from the rest of the stock market? That seems like a pretty big deal – I don’t remember it happening in ’07/’08 so this would be a first?

  273. Gary

    08 was a very special case of a credit market implosion. Something we are unlikely to see again for another 50 to 100 years.

    Notice how precious metals and miners already decoupled from stocks from the fall of 07 to March 08. Miners were rising while stocks were already in a bear market.

    Then gold began a normal D-wave correction. It was intensified by the market crash.

    From 01 to the 02/03 bottom miners were exploding higher while stocks were mired in a devastating bear market.

    Actually 08 was the exception not the norm.

  274. Hot Rod

    The Silver 4 hour chart is amazing (May contract).

    From March 16th at 10pm until now we have 18 out of 20 periods with a green candle.

    Low of $33.64 to now at $36.34.

    BTFD

    Because I followed silver all the way down to $9 in 2008, I feel like I should be in a looney bin when I buy (add) at $34 and $35.

    Gary, you are 100% right and one of the only analysts that actually explains what is happening with the psychology of the investor in real time (let alone being correct at it).

    BTW – I think you have excellent odds against the DOC. If I were him I would have asked for 3:2 or 2:1 odds. Even though we are “only” 400 points away on the DOW, I think it is a bolder call to say we will get a new high versus not at this point.

  275. Silverman

    Robert,

    I would expect the big money shorts to make at least once last attempt before the end of the month to drive silver lower before they are forced to pay the piper.

  276. catbird

    DG,

    Friday evening they told me that they had cancelled Tuesday morning’s erroneous short sale of my AGQ. They didn’t use the word “busted,” but I assume that’s what busted means.

    A sale made Tuesday morning settles Friday, which this one did…I think what “hangs them” is that I have printed out my trade confirmations from last week which shows that their system CANCELLED the Tuesday morning sell with a Tuesday BUY of the same shares at the same price.

    Scottrade also assured me (when I asked) on that same call Friday night that no claims on shares in my new account at IB were issued.

    Plus, you are told when you call in that they RECORD ALL CONVERSATIONS for quality control.

    So yeah, they are wrong, I am right. What scares me is the way I got the run around today.

    Compliance had 3 hours to call me back and not a peep.

  277. Nike Boy2008

    hey everyone

    sorry for the long post..my feed back

    Thank you all for sharing your words of wisdom on building wealth…i’ve taken note of everything

    MrMiyagi, romeobravo and LowTax…thank you
    yea, i don’t spend much on what’s associated with status symbol…my parents thought me lesson very early in my life

    Alex,
    I did learn the hard way about cutting my loses short…won’t let my loses ride anymore. Also,got the book How To Make Money In Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times or Bad by William O’Neil..will read it and ask you questions 🙂

    David,

    yea…”Earn, save, invest, in that order”..that’s what I’m doing now…any way to speed this process? haha will also look into “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” by Burton Malkiel and Market Wizards.

    I do learn a ton from this board..so thank you all

    Atease,
    yea..learning from mistakes is one thing I need to get better at..maybe keep a log or something..i sometimes do make the same mistake twice and then it hits me that I already did it once before.
    I do spend a lot of money eating out…pretty much every meal I eat out…I need to learn to cook or figure out a cheaper alternative..anyone have any ideas for cheaper alternatives?

  278. DG

    Catbird: They are probably hoping you will go away. hey have no incentive to call you back as they have your money. Send them a copy of your SEC complaint. Do you have a friend who’s a lawyer who could write them a legal demand letter? Just to let them know you are serious. Tell them you do not intend to let this go and it would be better for them and for you if they just credit your account and move on. You are sorry for their error and loss, but there is nothing you can do.

    Sorry about all this—these things are a pain in the butt, but I am pretty sure you will be made whole after some kicking and screaming.

  279. Nike Boy2008

    Gary,
    You are def. a great inspiration. I was following you blog since june 2010 and in july/august last year you called that bottom in the stock market when every other blog was calling for s&p 900…i subscribed with you the next day…I have tons to learn from you esp. the emotional/mental aspect of trading.
    Leverage has not been a problem for me…i’m just too scared to go anything over 100%…I am learning your cycle analysis esp. not selling at the cycle bottom

    Hotrod,
    I completely know how lucky I am to find this blog…and learning from you all of you..I trust the trades posted by Gary, DG, Alex and Bob and I take the trade just on their word..I need to learn how they’re getting that buy or sell signal – that’s one thing I really want to learn…i have no idea how to get to their level

  280. Nike Boy2008

    Bill,
    yea, i’m trying not to daytrade…i need to learn to ride to profits and cut my loses

    Poly,
    i’m still in process of figuring out what I love to do…however, i’m going through a process of elimination..i know what I don’t wanna do haha…how did you all figure that out?
    will check out ‘the richest man in Babylon’

    Wes,
    I do have a problem of buying into weakness as I’m too scared to buy and never know when to pull the trigger…i also tend to buy into strength but I’ve stopped doing that..i’m learning slowly but steadily or at least I hope so..
    will def. take the buying into weakness and selling into strength more seriously

  281. ALEX

    SILVERMAN

    I am SOOO glad you asked!! I went to my library and looked over my O’Neil books. I used to read like crazy ,so I have highlighted alot and written what I found important on the back (page notes to myself)…the biggest note with 5 stars next to it was…

    ” When to sell a climax top”…Pg 85!! So I re-read it-Thank You Silverman!

    Anyways ,I enjoyed and learned something good from them all, but He plays it safe at times..I obviously adjust his methods to my style (Ex: he wont buy a stock under $10 , I do)

    1st let me recommend this to ANYONE…Go to Barnes & Noble , they allow you to take any O’Neil book to their in-store Starbucks and browse it. Look in the INDEX in the back under “Climax Top-when to sell” 😉

    Yes, Gary will guide you when we get there, but I HIGHLY RECOMMEND IT! PG 85 of “The Successful Investor” or

    SILVERMAN, I recommend
    “24 Essential Lessons…” Its Chapters are broken up into questions commonly asked. (PG 117 -recognize and sell a climax top).

    Some chapters essential(lesson 3 follow a system, not your emotions..lesson 13, 20, and 21…’sell rules’) , others were so -so 🙂

    Hope it helps

  282. Nike Boy2008

    Thebookguy,
    I’m really conservative when it comes to investing…

    ddn3f,
    the fear of going bankrupt is the reason as to why i can never buy into weakness…i’m too scared of losing it all…Gary and others have definitely helped me with this

    Glen,
    thank you..Yep..have been maxing out my roth every year…

  283. Nike Boy2008

    Thebookguy,
    I’m really conservative when it comes to investing…

    ddn3f,
    the fear of going bankrupt is the reason as to why i can never buy into weakness…i’m too scared of losing it all…Gary and others have definitely helped me with this

    Glen,
    thank you..Yep..have been maxing out my roth every year…

  284. Marc

    Gary,

    Why do you think silver is outperforming gold to such a degree?

    I would think silver would be sensitive to economic changes due to the metal’s industrial uses. It makes me wonder how much of silver’s rise is due to speculation. So if the market does what you think and continues to grind lower on economic concerns, wouldn’t that put a lot more pressure on silver?

  285. ...at ease

    Nike, The easiest way to learn to cook is keep it simple. Figure out how much you eat out a week and cut that amount in half and use half to save and the other half to go grocery shopping.
    Set up your kitchen with essentials to prepare and store meals, either plastic storage bags or reusable containers.
    For instance… buy a whole roasted chicken from the grocery store already cooked and hot, have a meal and pull the rest apart and bag it. Same with vegetables buy fresh and bag them up for the week. Don’t know your appetite, however you should be able to get 2or 3 more sandwiches with the chicken leftovers.
    Get a crockpot and go online and get receipes to throw in a piece of meat with vegetables, beans etc. Chili goes a long way as well as making a pot of sauce with meatballs. There are so many options in cooking, easy.
    I love cold meatloaf sandwiches, so I make a meatloaf and enjoy a hot meal then have meatloaf sandwiches the rest of the week for lunch. Stick with fresh or frozen protein and vegetables and add some fruits and stay away from boxed foods and you should be fine. You will find lots of shortcuts. Make a shopping according to how many meals you are making for trhe week. Breakfast is easy, eggs, omelets, etc. Good luck and just make a plan and stick to it.
    Yes, this is financial advice and you will see how much you can save and actually find out how good home cooking can be. 🙂

  286. Nike Boy2008

    oops Alex…I got the book ‘A Winning System in Good Times or Bad’..it had good reviews on amazon

    will also get the book 24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success

  287. Gary

    silver always follows gold because it is a monetary metal and it’s not price sensitive like most commodities.

    Both gold and silver have that property. Higher price tends to increase demand not decrease it.

  288. ALEX

    Man, I just read NIKE BOYs post(s) , that was nice!

    You have instilled in me a greater sense of responsibility when you said you read our posts and may trust them, but not sure what made us buy.

    I want to try to post a chart and explain each time now,so you see what I look for. Have you ever in my past posts seen my charts and been able to understand? Or is it not explained well by me? thx

  289. Eamonn

    I’m with Nike Boy here. I’m a rookie at the stock market. But I am keen to learn from my betters. I think this is a nice blog. I ask dumb noobie questions and I get answered. People take me seriously. Some pretty serious and smart people here I’d say. I reckon I could pay $$$’s elsewhere and get a LOT less. Its nice to have a community to get support from.

  290. ALEX

    NIKE

    No, That is a good book, I own it. I would’ve recommended it, but I would say skip around in it, find a chapter that you can use now ,,it also has “climax top sell rules’. Read that, its very helpful! (charts included ).

    I didnt recommend it,, because when I read it, I started ,but then skipped Part 1…read it last. It is basically ‘Fundamentals’..he recommends top quality leaders, earnings, yr over yr revenue increase, etc..now go to Part 2 🙂

    The book was helpful, but again..I take from it what works for me (EX: he wont buy AXU , EXK , etc because its under $10..I did )

  291. ALEX

    EAMONN

    There are NO dumb questions!! If you dont know , it may hurt you.

    We ALL didnt know the answer to any question you may ask at some point in our lives, because no one was born knowing this. I say ASK, its a protection. 😉

  292. Free gold? Yes please!

    Hello all! I’m a brand new subscriber. It only took me a few days of reading this blog (and reader comments) to know that I need to be here.

    I’m almost 40 years old and married with two young children. Like most of you, my main mission in life is to support my family and provide for their needs. I’ve traded stocks for about 12 years, with average results (many lossess as well as gains) over the years.

    My biggest problem is pulling the trigger on trades, so hopefully I’ll be able to lean on some of you for moral support going forward. I’m also very new to gold/silver, but I have an open mind and I’m willing to roll with Gary’s expert analysis.

    The thing that really sold me on Gary’s service is the fact that he is SO ACTIVE on this blog. The price of this subscription seems like the steal of the century!! What other service offers daily analysis AND fast responses to reader comments?? Totally unbelievable! This is like having a best friend who actually KNOWS SOMETHING.

    Thanks! Tom

  293. ...at ease

    Hey Tom, Welcome, you will love it here, but don’t let the blog take over your life (only while on the C and A waves). Then spend time with the family knowing you are following a good plan.

  294. Nike Boy2008

    Atease,

    thank you for the lengthy post on cooking and cheaper alternatives for food…will give it shot, atleast for half the week as you suggested and will let you know how it goes..

    in all honesty, it’s just that i’m too lazy and will probably just forget about it and quit after two days…will give it my best shot nonetheless

  295. ALEX

    Gary

    I LOVE in your report what you wrote above the Silver chart…what a visual point you made for any who may have been shaken.

    I am pointing out ( I assume in advance that you dont care) that DJIA broke above and closed above its 50sma.
    I am 50/50 with my thoughts on the general market direction, so I wouldnt be stepping in here , even if I was on my own or with Docs call, but MACD turning up and stochastics the same??…I think this time it does depend on who really has the right cycle count…because that dictates ‘time’ left for the markets direction.

    I am all in P.M.’s anyways.

    Good report all around!

  296. ALEX

    Free Gold (TOM)

    What you wrote is exactly what sold me…this blog not only gives you instant axcess to Gary when you have a question ‘In Real Time’, but the blog is an intelligent blog, and tactful! You read others questions and it keeps you sharp.

    The Blog is a HUGE selling point on what you get with Garys report

    AT EASE

    I like the picture 🙂

  297. Eamonn

    After the c-wave of gold is over, how hard will it be to make money using Gary’s advice? Will it be lean times? How will we make money?

  298. Nike Boy2008

    Alex,

    haha..I take a look at the charts that you post..i remember looking at the ones that you posted at the intermediate bottom in Jan end…you had circled and colored certain items like volume, moving average etc…

    It’s just that being new to technical analysis, i’m just starting to fig. out the signifiance of moving avg, volume etc.. all this mean

    yea, it would be really really awesome if you can post more charts, so that I can see what you’re seeing and learn from you

  299. ...at ease

    Alex, that is the little house my hubby wants to get at the Villages. This was one we liked 2 bedroom cottage, just enough space, but not much to clean, we will be busy playing! Has a one and half car garage, room for the gold cart. Everyone there drives them around everywhere instead of the cars. Funny place… surreal disney land for adults. 27 gold courses and 72 club houses and pools, all these folks do is play. 🙂

  300. Hot Rod

    Intern,

    I came across Palladium in 2008 and was amazed. I called my buddy and he said look at silver and the rest is history.

    I got into CDE (was a 2 year shareholder from very close to the bottom – 70 cents) and was really into the finance.yahoo.com message board there.

    That was where I came across Zero Hedge and another CDE message board poster who had a portfolio of charts on sharpcharts.com.

    It was there that I “learned” about RSI, Slow STO, ADX, BB, positive and negative divergence, etc. Here is his site:

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID540918&cmd=show%5Bs217925594%5D&disp=O

    At some point, I came across goldscents.com (don’t remember how) and then finally signed up for SMT.

    I’m no expert, but it does take a lot of “hard facts” to convince me.

    Rodney

  301. fubsy_cooter

    Best book on stocks and investing, in my opinion bar none, is Reminscences of a Stock Operator. The lessons are gems.

    Each of the Market Wizards books are invaluable.

    How to Trade in Stocks by Jesse Livermore…Awesome!!

    Liar’s Poker…for its insights into Wall Street culture.

    And… When Genius Failed
    Great book on arbitrage and how even the brightest traders can lose sight of risk.

    There are so many!!

  302. ...at ease

    Nike, Make a point of doing this plan for a month. If you can do something 21 times it will become a habit. You have to make it a priority to save more money for a purpose (more money to invest in the next A wave) end of summer. Have a goal and work towards it.
    Don’t let others deter you from it as you are looking forward and tough times are coming ahead, must learn to conserve your resources.

  303. Hot Rod

    Eamonn,

    The answer to your question was in Gary’s weekend paid subscriber report (last weekend).

    If (when) Gary is right, I’ll be perfectly happy to sit aside for a bit and sip a good bottle of red wine.

    However, he does have things up his sleeve at every corner.

  304. Natanarchist

    Away from home computer from Wed to Sun and the blog turns…reading all the posts..its like a soap opera..haha..just teasing folks. happy to see everyone is made it through last week.

    Gary, I checked out those links posted of the Fraudsters who are copying you. I hope you can get some retribution..legally of course.

    lets ride this sucker for all its got.

  305. ALEX

    AT EASE

    Hehe, I am thinking you have Gold on the brain. Your post is talking about a gold cart and a gold course, but I assume you mean Golf? 🙂

    I love golf..and the place looks/sounds like a nice peaceful retreat 🙂

  306. DG

    Anyone even remotely interested in becoming a trader absolutely must read Market Wizards. Which reminds me, time to read it again…

  307. ALEX

    NIKEBOY

    yup, those were my charts, I get carried away 🙂

    Actually, I have my brother-in -law invested in Gold and he needs a lot of re assuring and hand holding through the pullbacks! He’s learning tho 🙂
    so I draw them for him and email him a link. Then if the blog discusses it, I post the link.

    The thing is, sometimes I find a moving avg useful, other times its not. Sometimes a trend-line is what I watch for support–other times Its irrelevant…so its tough. Many ‘reasons’ or ‘rules’ that I have written in my personal notebook.

    It takes time…you seem observant and sharp..you’ll learn a lot over time, I believe. My tuition is my ‘losses’ 🙂

    DG,,I have mkt wizards. loved it.

  308. ALEX

    I’m no expert, but it does take a lot of “hard facts” to convince me.

    Rodney

    I agree!! I check and double check MANY things before I place a trade or post it on here. I have to be VERY confident when I make a trade …I use numerous methods , but…

    anything can happen, so I enter a trade ready to sell if necessary, ready to ride it ,if possible.

    East coast here…going to bed.

    Goodnight all

  309. ...at ease

    Alex, that is so funny, didn’t catch that. I think I have just typed gold so much that is what comes out of my fingers… (my spell check reverts automatically) LOL

  310. ...at ease

    Any ideas on what to put funds into as I have about 20k jumping out of Fidelity mutual funds on March 28/29th, (had to wait until then or get penalized) Going to leave the funds in the gold Mutual fund until we top at C wave and jump out of that one. I want to get out of these other two prior to market drop. Do we expect any pullbacks or just put it back into metals of my choice? Any suggestions welcome. Thanks

  311. Gold Lion

    Nice chart hammy. seems 40$ silver is a chip shop at this point. Overnight trading is agreeing with the higher higher higher thesis as well. I think the hedge funds are gonna be pedal to the metal until the end of the quarter now. Thats how they get those huge pay days ain’t it?

  312. AGoldhamster

    And be prepared for a sharp selloff thereafter … eh?!

    This warning of course only for those insane shortterm gamblers – which will start shorting immediately after the peak!

    The C-wavers though will have to hold and go thru some pain a few weeks in April.

    And do not bet we really see 40 (although that’s the plan) – as those legalized NY wallstreet bankster have a ton of tricks available.
    The point is NOT to exactly catch the top, but to protect the NAV.
    And to be prepared for the following slide.
    If lucky the top happens pretty close to end of March, maybe a day or two or three earlier.

    And as these are just crystal ball projections – as alway: DYOD as Hammy could be dead wrong and maybe Hammy overnight changes sides.
    And keep in mind: Fridays, Mondays and Tuesdays are our days. Wednesdays and Thursdays tend to be Blythes days.
    So maybe a shortterm top today. 36.7x or slightly above would be my guess. HUI, already on lower volume yesterday, though still strong – will tell the story for tomorrow Wednesday.

  313. Gold Lion

    Hey Hammy,
    Do you have a blog where I could read more of your thoughts on this stuff? You sound like an insider 🙂 I’ve read the term the Blyth but not sure what it really refers too. Anyway, I appreciate your posts.

  314. ALEX

    HAMMY

    I like the chart you posted, but…I thought It needs to be updated. the bottom to The recent correction…

    I have for Silver (roughly) $26.5 to $36.5 = $10 dollar move , added to the bottom of the correction $33.5=$43.5 price projection.

    I am on my laptop and unable to attach a chart (sorry). I am also gone for the morning.

  315. Gary

    Mission,
    Track the cycles not levels. In theory the dollar should have bounced from the Nov. low. If one would have cut back expecting that look what they would have missed in silver yesterday.

  316. Brian

    News Flash

    Save 37% at Amazon.com on “Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It” by Jeffrey A. Hirsch

    Beanie must be a follower of this fellow.

  317. Leo

    Sure sign of the top for the DOW. 10 years ago it was “Dow 36000 by 2010”. That turd is still available on Amazon and reading reviews from late 1999 is a hoot and a half.

    Sooner or later we will get our own 1982 (assuming the US is still around at that time, I would not bet on that) but for now I would stay away from stocks.

  318. Eamonn

    Why is silver falling? Are we expecting silver to decouple from the S&P over the following weeks? i.e. if the S&P goes south, can we expect silver to keep heading north?

  319. Gary

    Silver has been up three days in a row. Gold four. They both need to take a breather before slicing through resistance.

  320. Gary

    E,
    You will do yourself a big favor if you just switch your charts to weekly and don’t even look at the daily charts for the rest of the C-wave. Or better still just turn off your computer and do something else for the next 6 or 7 weeks.

  321. fat boy

    Raking
    Stick with the plan
    It’s always a ride watching the silver spot
    As per gary maybe we just run out of buyers at 36
    Until the moment it busts 36 that is

  322. Eamonn

    OK. I think you are a kind of person I would like to learn a lot from. I am looking forward to watching this blog and reading your newsletters for many years for all your nuggets of wisdom

  323. Bob loves Hawaii

    The daily cycle half way point for silver and gold dovetails nicely with March expirations on the 28th (Day 10). This also ties nicely to Gold Hamsters chart.

    I am expecting a repeat of December’s run into delivery, and then a retrace for a few weeks. That positions us nicely for a run higher into the May Delivery month.

    I will sell my speculative call options into this date, and will sell call options on positions next week on a swing high.

    Note, this is working capital for me to generate income.

  324. MJM

    Does anyone know the date the current C wave started and also the A & B waves prior to that?

    I see the previous ABCD wave pattern is shown in the terminology section but I can’t find details of the current one.

  325. Gary

    Bob,
    In a C-wave finale gold doesn’t retrace for weeks. It’s lucky to retrace for a few days. Case in point the last dip into the daily cycle low lasted 6 days and that was with everything that happened in Japan.

    We will probably be lucky to get 4 days during the next daily cycle decline.

  326. Gary

    MJM,
    This C-wave started in April 09 at $860. The last A-wave began in Nov. 08 at the bottom of the 8 year cycle low.

  327. jeff

    gary

    if those stops are hit, but we still have the

    cot on our side
    sentiment our side
    dollar on our side
    hmm what else am i forgeting

  328. Gary

    If those stops are hit I won’t ask questions. I’ll exit all positions and then wait to see if gold can recover.

    The only thing that would change the plan would be if something else happened in Japan that caused another brief sell off. In that case I would probably consider it a stretched cycle caused by an exogenous event.

  329. Poly

    Gold only yesterday confirmed it’s cycle, gaped up and broke out. The weakness this morning is expected to work in the move out of the cycle low, which should barely last a day, if that.
    With new (low risk) tighter stops and a fresh day count, there is never going to be a better chance to add.

  330. MJM

    Gary,

    So if my interpretation is correct the last D wave lasted from March 2008 until November 2008. Was that exceptionally long?

  331. DG

    The euro has shown up on my short screen and, not surprisingly then, the dollar showed up on my buy screen. These are short-term predictions (talk about picking up nickels in front of a steam-roller!) and I didn’t act on them, but they slowed my down from adding this morning until I see how it plays out. Makes sense for the $ to pop for a day or two after what has recently happened.

  332. Hot Rod

    Just bought the SkyFire web browser app for my iPhone.

    Just after 5 minutes it’s amazing, better than safari in many ways.

    I got it in order to play flash videos (e.g. Ira epsteins mid day metals video).

    It works better for this blog, too, because I can refresh in place rather than having to scroll back up and them back down.

    Hopefully performance is ok long term.

  333. jeff

    dollar gasping for air and perking up a little this morning. gold going inversly. im looking for the 1418. i hate it when im home looking at this stuff. pull the trigger or not. i have the 1418 order in and will not do anything else.

  334. jeff

    gary
    shoot i got futures and you were talking spot weren’t you .. we hit 1419.5, but i guess i can still hold out for the 1418

  335. Duuuuuude

    I am a commodity broker, specializing in grains, and have been so for 12 years. I have learned more from Gary over the last 6 months than the last 12 years on the dollar cycle, and how to apply this to the gold cycle. I am trying to find resources to help me apply these principles with agriculture, just as Gary applies these to Gold. Anybody out there have any suggestions?

  336. Gary

    I doubt you will be able to develop cycle counts for grains. The markets aren’t as big as say the stock index or gold and there are other variables like weather and such that come into play.

    But generally speaking I would expect them to follow the dollar and CRB cycle to some extent. Which means when the 3 year cycle in the CRB tops then the grains will probably top also.

  337. Glen

    Duuude

    You might check out the work of Jake Bernstein with MBH Commodities. He has written many books over the years on the subject of cycles and seasonals, in nearly every commodity.

  338. Gary

    I often use an oversold RSI level on the 5 minute chart. 10 bar parameter.

    I’m not sure you will get it today though, silver has been strong since the open. The open was your buying opportunity.

  339. DG

    E: Why today? Can you handle it if it goes against you? Why did you not buy it earlier? You probably should have some sort of a plan rather than picking a random day and random amount to buy. Do you know how to position size so you don’t get scared and sell at a loss in two days? Maybe start small until you gain confidence, knowledge, and experience (I think you said you are new to this.)

  340. Silverman

    I received this info in an e/m today from Warren Bevan (I’m not a sub to his newsletter)

    He mentions a large Gold producer that recently did a large private placement (don’t know what this is).

    He goes on to say: “In order to preserve or increase the purchasing power of this private placement the company is purchasing physical Gold and physical Silver with half of this money. It simply can’t get any more bullish than this. The company has now solidly put themselves in the position of being the world’s most bullish Gold company. Once news of this gets around, every single “Gold Bug” will surely have to own this company. In fact, already they are seeing huge trading in their US listing as news is leaked, although the price is still holding in the cheap range.”

    Anyone have any idea which company this might be?

  341. Eamonn

    Well,
    There was a problem with my online brokerage when i wanted to buy this morning, and i had to watch while the price rose up while it was fixed by them! Very frustrating and cost me much $$$

  342. Silverman

    Alex,

    Thanks for the book recommendations. Much appreciated. I will probably buy them both. Thanks also for the heads-up on “When to sell a climax top”. Will defintely check that out (might even be able to do that online).

  343. Avann

    I deal with Scotiabank … when their system screws me from making trades they always compensate me … it’s not always enough to recover the loss but last time this happened they credited me with 50 free trades.
    And of course sometimes the system down time is to my advantage … but they don’t need to know about that 🙂

    At least it shows some good will on their part.

  344. Gary

    silverman,
    When ever I get something touting the next big thing it immediately goes in the trash. No one is going to publicly announce a potential bullish event unless it is a pump and dump scheme…which 99% of these are.

    Just stick to the ETF’s and the plan and you will do just fine.

  345. TZ(4404)

    LISTEN UP ALL,

    >i hate the refresh… scroll, scroll, scroll, … repeat 200 times a day

    There is a TRICK when reading this blog to avoid the scrolling pain in the ass.

    The trick is that you have to read the blog by clicking on the TITLE of each article like this:

    smartmoneytracker.blogspotcom/2011/03/end-game.html

    and NOT by clicking on the “560 comments” link on the BOTTOM of the article (on the home page), like this:

    http://www.bloggercom/comment.g?blogID=7130708113832839690&postID=2254767927375317796

    The first link will show the comments much wider and more compact, but it has the added advantage of, when you scroll to the bottom and reach the end, all you have to do is hit refresh and the screen will STAY IN THE SAME PLACE and simply LOAD NEW comments. You can just keep reading from your left off spot.

    If, however, you use the SECOND link (with page that has the “leave your comment” box on it) then everytime you hit refresh bonehead blogger will reset your page (and cursor) back up to the comment box at the top.

    FINALLY, when you are reading the blog (using the first link) and WANT TO POST, what you do is CTRL-LEFT-CLICK on the “Post a Comment” link at the bottom which OPENS A NEW TAB where you have that “Leave your comment” box.

    You then type and submit you comment on that page but then GO BACK TO THE FIRST “Reading” page and continue refreshing and reading.

    You never stay on or read using the “Leave your comment” page with the entry box.
    YOU USE TWO PAGES TO READ GARY’S BLOG, NOT ONE!!!
    The first page is for reading. The second page (tab) is for posting. Then you go back and continue reading from the first page.

    Got it?

  346. TZ(4404)

    My example links are obviously missing a PERIOD at the DOT COM part so blogger doesn’t tag me as a spammer. Add the period if you want to use those links.

    Does everybody understand what I wrote?

  347. Eamonn

    Hi Avann,
    I use Firstrade. I reckon I lost $2,000 this morning because of the glitch. When the c-wave is over I may move to IB, or maybe or MB trading

  348. TZ(4404)

    IN summary:
    1) READ the blog by clicking the TITLE of each post by gary.

    2) POST to the blog by opening a SECOND BROWSER PAGE, and only use that page to post.

    If you only read the blog from the posting page (by clicking the “XXX comments” link at the bottom of the home page instead of the title) then your page will always reset to the top everytime you refresh.

  349. Avann

    EAMONN … sorry to hear … if it was their fault at least ask from some compensation … they should be willing to give you a little something back in the form of some free trades.

  350. Avann

    TZ … this will greatly reduce my frustration in reading this blog on my iPhone … where scrolling is a real pain the AZZ.

    Thanks Again.

  351. Jayhawk

    TZ-

    Yea, I’ve noticed the blog sometimes is the wide blue and other times the compact version, but never put 2 and 2 together. I’m lazy and dumb most of the time.

  352. Bob loves Hawaii

    Eamom, I do not know what amount you are planning to purchase, but my suggestion is you buy 20% each day for the next five days.

    ouare anxious because you have no shares, it is far better to complain about not having enough vs not having any. Pluse buying over five days allows some averaging reducing the remorse of down day after a big purchase.

    This is how I usually enter my positions.

    Bob

  353. Jayhawk

    Once these daily cycles are confirmed, I’ve noticed that the dips are there to be bought, but they are extremely brief and usually in the AM. I’d look to buy weakness at the open.

  354. TZ(4404)

    Jayhawk,

    Yes, good additional point.

    Is a person is reading gary’s blog on a BLUE PAGE,they are doing it right.

    If you are reading it on a BROWN PAGE they are doing it wrong.

  355. ALEX

    Blogger Gary said…

    E,
    You will do yourself a big favor if you just switch your charts to weekly and don’t even look at the daily charts for the rest of the C-wave.

    That really is great advice I can use for my Brother in law!

    Excellent! he calls and txt’s me at E-V-E-R-Y time we open lower,move to red, even slightly red silver,etc.

    I’ve used the ‘dont fret the wiggles’ line,or…”Its a stairway up, not straight up YET” ( when it goes up 8 out of 10 days in a row and gaps the last 2 or 3 , we’ll consider selling 🙂

    but now I’ll say…”Put it on a wkly and dont call me until you see red there 🙂

  356. Matthew

    Hello all, I asked Gary for some information on his work background and portfolio performance and he has referred me to you guys. I am pretty young 24 but have been actively investing for 3 years and would like to know how you have personally done investing with Gary.

    Thank you in advance for all your help!

  357. Moondoggie

    Thank you TZ…
    I’ve been reading this blog for a year but I never figured out how to post a comment.
    Since I’m posting now I should express how much I enjoy the culture on this blog. Gary has attracted a terrific group of people. I really appreciate all the insights, the advice and the good-natured humor. It’s become my favorite read of the day !

  358. Leo

    Matthew,

    Gary is awesome! I have been following him like a puppy for 2 years now and more than doubled my money (after taxes).

    Good luck investing, and be patient!

  359. jeff

    gary gary who?

    just kidding
    gary is the best money you will ever spend. i am a novice and have traded gold for 2 years. first try got clobbered. traded 2 years sideways and didnt make anything. he has got me on the money and KEPT me on the money (us). he is very available and willing to help. go back and read alot of the blogs and everything he has. common aboard. took me awhile to get my head wrapped around the basics and i have much learning to do , but i am makeing more money than i ever have.. not more than i dreamed because i new it was possible .. i just didnt know how

    GARY IS ALL THAT

  360. David

    Matthew,

    In 9 months investing with Gary I have made more money than I have made in my entire life before that. Literally millions of dollars.

    However, past performance is no guarantee of future results. We are coming to the end of the easy money phase, at least for now, and you will have to be patient for the next year or so.

    But if you are prepared to learn from Gary and listen to his counsel, particularly about avoiding leverage, you will make a fortune in this bull market and another one in the bull market that follows.

  361. DG

    Matthew: I have been trading for about 35 years. I left the industry 30 years ago. I have read it all. Gary is one of the very best I have found. He is not a promoter, is not trying to sell anything, has little ego invested in what he says, and really knows his stuff. Most important, he is not stubborn. That is, when he makes an error he corrects it rather than trying to justify it. You are going to need to learn who to trust and how to learn. This is the very best game in the world! Just learn from your errors (there will be MANY) as if each error were a tuition paid for a class titled: What Not To Do Again, and don’t get greedy. Have a good reason for everything you do…and have fun. If you really learn how to do this it can change your life.

  362. daniele

    eemon, gary will continue this blog and work tll the end of this bull market, presumibily 2016-2017.There is plenty of time 🙂

  363. Hot Rod

    TZ,

    There is always more than 1 way to skin a cat. 🙂

    (I’m referring to mobile device Blog use, specifically the iPhone with this process)

    I agree that having 2 windows with one for posting and one for reading is a good tip.

    The blue screen does give you more “width” to the text than the Brown but other than that, they are pretty equal (limit of 200 posts per page).

    I can say, and I just triple confirmed, that on my iPhone using SkyFire when I click refresh while at the bottom of the post, it will jump back to the bottom.

    My reason for buying SkyFire today was to get Flash movies to play on web pages on my iPhone. The automatic bottom refresh was an added bonus that I instantaneously saw (my day job is Information Technology).

    A very well spent $3. I am slowly moving all of my bookmarks over from Safari.

    Rodney

  364. MrMiyagi

    Matthew,
    Over the years I have joined and quit many sites where a free trial of some sort was offered initially. Invariably, I got swamped with e-mails from existing members and the people who ran the site with offers of rebates and discounts to join; I still get some emails after 5 years! Additionally, the members themselves plagued me with “hi! use me as a refferral so I can get money” emails amd PMs.
    Gary has had an offer of 50$ to any member referral for a month now, no one has harrassed me or anyone else to join and refer.
    I believe that speaks highly of the commmunity.
    Have a look around, read the complimentary reports and make up your mind; you don’t even have to use me as a referral.
    I subscribed a few weeks ago

  365. Poly

    Gary,

    In terms of a possible cycle low for the dollar, you should consider April 7th over April 1st. It’s the date set for the ECB announcement where the expectation is for a possible rate hike. The dollar index has been tanking since the last ECB meeting where a possible hike was discussed.

  366. David

    I have a feeling that Gary is going to be presented with a lot of opportunities in the next year or so, if he hasn’t already. I wouldn’t count on his being around to answer questions on a blog in 2016.

    However, if you pay attention, you probably won’t need him by then.

    Teach a man to fish and all that.

  367. Gary

    Poly,
    Definitely a possibility and still within the timing band for a cycle bottom. If we don’t get a swing by the 4th or 5th then that would be the next opportunity.

  368. ALEX

    MATTHEW

    I am an experienced Trader and did well for years, BUT even at that, Gary knows his cycles and really has made “TIMING” trades and even staying Invested in trades longer term easier, because you dont feel the need to sell if you’re early in a cycle ( and he points that out, where we are in a cycles timeframe).

    For a new investor, He is THE BEST VOICE TO LISTEN TO…PERIOD.
    I have had a few subscriptions in the past 10+ yrs , but he is (In this Gold/Silver MKT)spot on, and you will make money if you listen to him. No doubt!
    He is calm and rational…he reasons on things rather than emotional.

  369. David

    Haggerty,

    I don’t presume to speak for Gary, but success attracts attention. I guarantee you he’s being read by more than just retail investors at this point.

    But I think he himself would tell you his discipline itself is fairly simple and easy to learn and apply on one’s own. The real challenge is mastering one’s emotions, which some people never seem to be able to do.

  370. Poly

    Couldn’t resist seeing the April SLV $40’s hit $0.20, so picked up another 100 contracts @$0.20 for a 300 lot lottery.
    It’s a pure lottery, of course, but it’s purchased on the presumption that real fireworks are about to begin with the dollar drop and new daily gold cycle.

  371. Eamonn

    Gary, that’s a relief. I am your disciple. It’s always a pleasure dealing with a learned expert without the huge ego thing going on. Hard to find that

  372. ddn3f

    Does anyone know if the COMEX gold closed down or up from yesterday at 1:30 PM? It was too close for me to tell. I am hoping for Veronica/Vuvvy COMEX gold down and USERX up signal today.

  373. TZ(4404)

    HOTROD,

    >on my iPhone using SkyFire when I click refresh while at the bottom of the post, it will jump back to the bottom.

    If Javascript is turned off, or if your browser doesn’t have/use it ,then the page will not jump up to the top. It is some javascript code from Blogger that is causing the page to jump.
    (But turning off javascript gives other problems).

  374. David

    Gary,

    If you are still here answering every single question and worry at the height of the PM mania, I will buy you a solid-gold burrito.

  375. Rob

    David,

    Does cycle analysis work for specific sectors other than gold, usd, S&P, oil,the ones we are familiar with?

    I thought I saw Gary mention that some things cannot be analyzed through cycle analysis.

  376. LowTax

    Hopefully we can talk Gary into doing at least a weekly report after 2016. I wouldn’t mind spending less time in front of the computer anyway…

    Matthew, subscribing to Gary’s nightly reports is some of the best money you will ever spend – worth every penny and a lot more. I think I’ve been here about 3 years and I can assure you that he knows what he’s talking about. My only fear is that I will fail to learn enough from him before he decides to really retire…

  377. guy

    i don’t kow how it is in the states, but here in europe it’s easier to get your hands on physical gold than on silver.
    anyone else in physical?

  378. ...at ease

    DON’T WASTE YOUR MONEY ELSEWHERE WITH BIG HYPE AND PROMISES!

    Gary is the best I have found for down to earth pure market analysis and trading/investing timing. You will get a GREAT education as well as make money. Thanks Gary.

  379. DG

    I almost hesitate to say, but if the Dow closes up I will get a sell today. Remember, the sells are not as good as the buys (about 65% accurate vs. 80%+ for the buys). Given the dollar popping up on my bullish screen and the resistance at 1300, I may add to my short China position. Assume the sell activates if we close up. If we close up more than 75 I will post because sharp moves sometimes abort it.

  380. Hot Rod

    Who is Gary kidding? 🙂

    It is in his DNA to do this.

    This “IS” his retirement.

    Maybe he won’t have time to actively post on the Blog, maybe he won’t have a daily report every single day but in my opinion he’s not going anywhere.

    I’m going to leave out the obvious exceptions and “not go there.”

  381. T.J. Rand

    Matthew, Eamonn, et al-

    To get/learn the most from your subscription, I’d urge you to also get a subscription to Stockcharts and to mirror Gary’s charts with your own…and when he says we are x number of days into a daily or intermediate cycle, check it out on your charts and make sure you see it…and when DOC challenges some of the timing (as he does occasionally), check that out too. Begin to own the knowledge by living the cycles through your own work.

  382. ...at ease

    The rates for trading are much cheaper at Trade Station, I average a $1.00 per contract and a few cents for a free. Fidelity charges me $7.95 on up per contract or purchase / sale.

  383. ...at ease

    (should be fee, not free.) Total cost is # of contracts x $1.00 and a few cents with Trade station. Saves a lot of money if you are a frequent trader.

  384. T.J. Rand

    Rob- You need deep, liquid markets. Read back through the past few months and you’ll find a number of comments about cycle applicability.

  385. Wes

    Poly,

    You’ve had good fortune with the lottery picks, so I’m joining you on the SLV Apr 40’s for a modest 100.

    Hope I don’t jinx you.

    We could have purchased these for $.055 on 2/16, and sold them for 10 times that on 3/7.

    Maybe we’re not thinking far enough out of the box.

  386. Leo

    at ease,

    it depends on your trade side. When I buy 10000 shares it is cheaper to do through Schwab (my present broker) than through Tradestation. Besides TS charges good money for real time quotes (unlike CS). I have closed my TS account recently, although their charting software is quite good. But with Gary doing all the charting for me why should I bother with it myself?

  387. Poly

    I’m happy with my fees, sure there are cheaper options, but I’m not going to play the jump from broker to broker game.

    I was a wealth management client at Smith Barney for a long time, you don’t know fees until you’re with the big wealth boys 🙂

    Moral is, I’m happy paying 50cents a contract, I never have a problem with their technology (I’m not a day trader), and with my numerous accounts and AUM with them, I get top notch customer service and support, that matters most.

  388. MrMiyagi

    For that April 40 call to make a decent amount of money SLV has to go up to 38$ before April. 40$ at the expiry would get you 80 cents or so is my guess, still not bad.

    Not impossible.

  389. David

    Rob,

    Gary has said that cycles don’t work as well with agriculture because of the influence of weather, etc.

    Intern,

    I was a straight “Old Turkey” buy-and-hold PM investor. I probably would have made a lot of money in this move regardless, but I probably wouldn’t have pressed as hard with AGQ and I might have sold too early thinking the move was overdone.

    Unlike most people here, who Gary encourages to trade less, I find myself trading more.

    If I had been heeding Gary’s counsel in 2008, I probably would have avoided the Meltdown in PMs. Because I never actually sold a share, I didn’t actually lose money, but I could have avoided the D-wave and been worth a lot more today. Prior to that, I made mistakes (shorting cyclical bull markets) that Gary might have helped me avoid.

  390. DG

    Does anyone have a take on the SPX? I am really torn about whether to take a short-side shot if I get that sell signal. [I know Gary: “Don’t waste money on the stock market.”] 😉

  391. Poly

    Mr Miyagi,

    With almost an entire daily cycle ahead of us, these options could almost run to expiration. Silver can easily put in a 20% run in a big daily cycle, so a $43 Silver price is not far fetched.
    If Gary is close to right and you have the nerve to hold, these contracts could be worth up to $3!

  392. Poly

    WES, those April $0.05 are SICK and that price represents the IT lows. That’s why I love buying these right at the IT lows.

    You’re idea about buying AGQ puts at the top follows the same principle, we should be able to pick up ridiculous cheap puts right at the very top.

  393. Matthew

    So where do I start learning from Gary. You guys convinced me. My background is in trading futures and long term holdings of SLV. I am hoping there are some strategies that I will be able to use so I don’t have to glue myself infront of a screen everyday… Wow gary’s blog must be well ranked with all the comments you guys make…

  394. MrMiyagi

    Poly,
    I have no doubt that silver will end up close to 50$.
    Those calls are a month from expiration, if SLV is at 38$ a week prior to expiry and goes up to 40$ the Monday after, the options will have had a last day value of a penny or two.

  395. Gary

    Matthew,
    Once you get logged in I suggest you read through at least 3-4 weeks of reports so you can get caught up with what we are tracking.

  396. ddn3f

    Mr Miyagi,

    My thinking is that silver gets up to between $40 and $43, I am thinking $43 and have a violent downmove ($4-5 drop) into the daily cycle low. Then from there it will make the final run to $50 or so.

    At the going rate, silver in the last daily cycle was from $26 to $36. A $10 move. I am hoping this daily cycle matches that and goes from $33 to $43. Plus as you get further into the C-wave, the moves become stronger. Anyways, it is a lottery ticket.

  397. pimaCanyon

    Matthew,

    Do what Gary said to get caught up.

    Also, read the following:

    Under “Daily Cycle Count” read Charts and Stops and Trade Triggers.

    And under “…terminlogy docs” read Terminology <–very important, and read How I Use Options. The others are worth a look too.

    Then do what TJ Rand suggested: Every evening see if your own analysis (especially where we are in the cycle count) matches what Gary says. That way, over time you will get pretty good at doing what he is doing, so you’ll actually be learning his methods as well as getting the benefit of his daily analysis.

    Last but not least, the blog comments are usually worth a look. I have learned more than a few things from some of the astute traders here.

  398. Driver

    DG,

    In response to your question, I’ve been short since the EOD on 2/28 on both the NDX & SPX, based on my models, fwiw.

  399. Matthew

    I do regret missing the correction last week.. I haven’t done alot of reading yet but I have a feeling many of you loaded up on silv and gld on the nice dip..

  400. jeff

    mattew

    gary said for anyone who didnt buy that 1418 on spot would be a good buying opportunity. you will just be chaseing the market soon if not allready.
    it hit 19.5 on the futures this morning

  401. Driver

    DG, accurate enough for me to have used them for years. My main problem in the past has been sticking to them and letting my stops do the worrying.

    P.S. I gave you some statistics on their performance several months ago, although you probably don’t remember.

  402. Ryan

    Gary,

    I know we got a confirmed swing high so we moved our stops. Sorry if this is a dumb question but if we get another daily cycle before the c-wave tops, we’ll get to move our stops up again?

  403. Driver

    DG, current SPX model to date from the end of ’86 = 28.8% vs 7.2% for the Index. It’s a next day model, being 1/2 short as long.

  404. Gary

    Actually it is a swing low, not a swing high. But to answer your question, yes we will move our stops again at the next daily cycle low.

  405. Arive

    Had to savor portfolio today- nice greens today!

    Read on other blogs that they are expecting oil to break out > 104$…apparently this will help cause the panic into precious metals before, finally, oil collapse the market.

    Any ideas on why SIL uderperformed today – is it just daily noise?

  406. TommyD

    Anyone using their IRA to buy ETF AGQ with;

    Note: You will receive a statement from Proshares stating you need to file a K-1 form with your taxes in 2010 year, if you owned it.

    Just another bump in the road. I am under the age of 59.5 so I just send it in to my broker at Schwab who takes care of filling it for me…

  407. ike

    ” I received this info in an e/m today from Warren Bevan (I’m not a sub to his newsletter)

    He mentions a large Gold producer that recently did a large private placement (don’t know what this is).

    He goes on to say: “In order to preserve or increase the purchasing power of this private placement the company is purchasing physical Gold and physical Silver with half of this money. It simply can’t get any more bullish than this. The company has now solidly put themselves in the position of being the world’s most bullish Gold company. Once news of this gets around, every single “Gold Bug” will surely have to own this company. In fact, already they are seeing huge trading in their US listing as news is leaked, although the price is still holding in the cheap range.”

    Anyone have any idea which company this might be?

    March 22, 2011 8:24 AM”

    Silver man,

    I don’t know if this has been answered, (I just got home from work and haven’t read everything yet)

    Based on volume and % gain today, I would guess VGZ

  408. Driver

    Tommy,

    That’s a shock re. AGQ. I wasn’t in it in 2010 in my IRA but I am now. Do you know why the IRS does that? Do they consider it real silver?

    Gary?

  409. Matthew

    Any recommendations from the professionals in the group on trading platform. I was previously with infinity futures but they do not offer stocks or options? thank you everyone for all the help. I look forward to contributing and learning.

  410. catbird

    I think Scottrade saw the light!

    NOTE–please stop reading now if you are tired of this saga.

    Thank you to all my SMT brothers and sisters, especially Daniel, DG, Poly, Silverman, Wes, and a few other awesome people whose nicknames escape me.

    I just got off the phone with compliance and they are transferring back all the shares of AGQ they yanked away from my IB account yesterday. THANK GOODNESS.

    It could take another business day or two, but I really think :knocking on wood: that this saga is over.

    Lesson Learned: Ignorance and incompetence are now the norm in America. This took 10 years off my life.

  411. ...at ease

    catbird, they had you like that dog in the commercial…. worry, worry, worry. So glad that is fixed for you now. What a pain, but lesson learned, babysit funds transfers from start to finish. Good news!

  412. MrMiyagi

    That’s great catbird!
    Just goes to show that you HAVE to keep on top of things and not cave in (unless it benefits you).

    As I had posted about 2 weeks ago, Igot my mom to sell or her mutual funds as they have gone up, that mfin’ “advisor” of hers is still harassing her into not selling and switching funds and staying with him. I explained to her to SELL AND CASH. Liquidity is hard to do when your money is not in your hands.

  413. catbird

    NikeBoy,

    Thanks, and I had a tip for you on food. Meant to say this earlier, but I have been, well, VERY distracted for the last 24 hours.

    Stock up on beans, like black beans and pinto beans. Dirt cheap, especially if you buy them dry. Full of protein, fiber, and slow digesting carbs.

    Making a pot of chili and popping the leftovers in the fridge is simple.

    Another easy to prepare favorite: eggs. Did you know you can nuke eggs in the micro? Just pull them out about halfway through, stir, and pop them back in. You’ll learn how much time it takes just by eyeballing them.

  414. Uatatoka

    lol, I just realized I am selling those lottery tickets to some of you (at least I did a few weeks ago). It is part of a bull call spread I initiated to offset decay on my April $35 calls. I thought it was a long shot SLV would make it to $40 so there is a good chance I keep it – but if not my $35 calls would increase even more.

    So far both are in the money 😉 Too risky for me to gamble with buying way OTM options alone. More power to you if it works!

  415. DG

    Driver: No. I am not really bearish so not looking to unless i get a clear reason, and I didn’t get the sell since we closed down. [If we close up 17.91 or more tomorrow I’ll still get it, but that’s the last shot for now.] I am holding my China short, though. Just missed getting stopped out.

  416. TommyD

    Driver,

    It has to do with limited partnership. If ProShares make money after giving back to holders then everyone may be to pay a portion to the IRS. My take is that it not what money you gain or lose that gets taxed but it’s with the limited partnership.
    It’s a pain I know but your tax guy should know what to do, even if you have filed just file an amendment. Or, My box 20 is blank so it would just be an updated amendment for IRS paperwork, IMHO.

  417. DG

    Catbird: Great! I tried to assure you you were never in any danger (other than wasting time forcing them to make you good) so as to save you from worrying. As ridiculous as this country is sometimes, it is still a nation of laws and you can be sure that 95% of the time a genuine wrong will be corrected, despite resistance and blustering. Way to hang tough with them.

  418. Daniel

    Catbird–
    Congratulations– I knew it was going to go your way sooner or later — (Just wasn’t sure how long or how dug in Scottrade was going to be)
    Congrats and put it all behind you.

  419. Silverman

    Catbird

    Congrats. Glad you got it settled in your favor. You can probably take some comfort in knowing that most people on this blog will never use/recommend them as a broker.

  420. catbird

    DG,

    Yeah, I mean, the facts and the simple intuition of a fair minded person were all in my corner. So I was less freaked out then I might have been. Your words helped.

    What was so unnerving was the initial ignorance of everyone I spoke to at Scottrade. I don’t think they were thinking “let’s mess with this guy for fun” I think it was sheer ignorance (and incompetence).

    I kept wondering, “Will they ever see the light?!” I guess eventually an adult took a look at this and realized “Crap. We screwed up.”

    It took entirely too long. Ignorance and incompetence are pretty much the norm.

  421. Silverman

    HotRod

    You said: “My reason for buying SkyFire today was to get Flash movies to play on web pages on my iPhone. The automatic bottom refresh was an added bonus that I instantaneously saw (my day job is Information Technology”.

    I assume this will also work for the iPad? Not being able to use Flash has been pretty frustrating. I’ll try this tonight. Thanks!

  422. Uatatoka

    I’m glad that was resolved Catbird. That would have seriously pissed me off. I can safely say they will never see my business! What a hassle.

  423. pvm999

    Gary,

    Is it too early to read into this?

    The slope of silver coming out of this daily cycle low is much steeper than the one coming out of the January low.

    Does this indicate a more powerful leg up?

  424. pimaCanyon

    congrats, catbird! I know you must be very relieved and happy that mess is behind you. I also know that if something similar had happened to me, I would be freaked out and would worry about it till it got resolved. Hell, yesterday TOS hosed up my P/L Day column on one of my accounts (it happened to other folks here too), and even though the phony LOSS that was showing up for the day was NOT affecting the balance in my account, it was still very disturbing to see it on the screen. I can only imagine what I’d feel like if the brokerage had screwed up and had me short several hundred shares of AGQ!

    Have a great evening!

  425. rick

    when Gary says we are “in Day 5” of a cycle, is he counting only trading days, or does it include weekends also?

    I am following the advice given above, and starting to track the cycles on my own chart and see how I do.

  426. Steven

    Gary,

    Do Bolinger Bands act differently in a parabolic move? Usually a security will not stay over a given BB for more than a few days at best. Does the parabolic move somehow cause this to be different, ignored, the same as any other time, etc.?

    Thanks!

  427. Gary

    Bollinger band trades don’t work on the upside in any kind of market.

    Markets go up differently than they go down.

  428. Steven

    No, Gary, that’s not what I meant. The theory is that the security should not stay over the BB for any real period of time. I’m not really talking about a BB crash trade here (in reverse) but more along the lines of will the given security (SLV, AGQ, SLW, etc) respect the BB and perhaps hug it moving up or does it work somehow differently in a parabolic move? I hope I’m being clear.

  429. Arun

    Don’t you hate it when this happens? Left couple buy orders overnight for Some sorta conspiracy against me 🙂
    * SI at 35.75 & LOD was 35.76. Just 1 damn tick.
    * GC at 1419 & LOD was 1419.5

  430. Driver

    I see that $Silver closed at a new recent high. $USD ended with a doji candle (indecision,) perhaps indicating a bounce to come.

  431. pimaCanyon

    yes, I am also not able to get into the Premium website.

    Took a very long time to load the page, and then I get this message:

    “PHP has encountered an Access Violation at 7D611952”

  432. Ryan

    PC,

    Not that I know it. When it happened last time, we were able to access the page after 10-15 minutes from what I remember.

  433. jeff

    Ok. Just because the dollar gapped up on the open and gold tanked 2 dollars you think it’s the end of the world

    Look people it’s just a wiggle

    ( how was that?)

  434. catbird

    Pima and TheBookGuy,

    Thanks guys. You were two names I forgot to mention in my other post.

    I feel like a new man…kind of like I did back on Friday evening when I thought this was resolved! Ha!

  435. Adam

    Gary,

    Why do you think we’re going to take out the ’08 low on the $USD Index? Isn’t it just as likely that we get a higher low which will begin the next three year cycle up?

  436. Gary

    Adam,
    Just odds. More often than not a left translated cycle moves below the prior cycle bottom.

    This three year cycle is left translated. It should drop, at least marginally, below the 08 low.

  437. Mikey

    Gary,

    I see charts showing that the historical high for silver is 42 dollars. Isn’t this the price we should be looking to get out during this C-wave top, and not the 50 dollar price you’ve mentioned before?

  438. RussianBear

    Gary,
    What do you think about similarity of today’s $USD cycle and 1992?
    When it broke from the triangle, violated previous low at ~85 and quickly fell to 78.43 ?
    As for me, it looks very similar.

  439. jeff

    i have seen many many charts in the 50 range. that is strange that chart would not show it. maybe its from the educational department. they are changeing the history books alot.

  440. Gary

    I certainly wouldn’t count on it to do the same thing today as it did in 92. We will just track the cycles and try to get as close to the bottom as we can.

  441. funmike

    Is it possible for the C wave to be much longer than projected and the D wave to be much shorter because of an acceleration in the decline of the dollar? OR how long can a C wave go? And what is the shortest D wave?

  442. Gary

    The question should be how long can the three year cycle in the dollar last?

    Every major C-wave advance has been driven by a leg down in the dollar bear market. This one is no different.

    The timing band for the three year cycle low is this spring. Sentiment is already becoming extremely bearish. So I’m going to go with the odds and say this C-wave will top this spring along with the dollar putting in its three year cycle low.

    D-waves are a severe regression to the mean event triggered by a parabolic rally. Those are never mild because a parabolic rally isn’t by definition mild.

    It’s just basic action and reaction. The tighter the rubber band stretches the harder it will snap back. A D-wave is the rubber band snapping back.

  443. DG

    Mikey: I was trading gold and silver when I was in the business in 1980 . It assure you it hit 50 and was the most beautiful blow-off and collapse I have ever seen. I never went long (not having known Gary yet) but shorted it on the way down and made a fortune.

  444. DG

    Pima: It was a blow-off; the Hunts cornering efforts were clearly broken; the Exchange had raised margin rates, and there was a spectacular highest-volume-in-history reversal from up huge to down huge. There were no ETF’s back then but the best trade I ever made was to buy 100 Homestake Mining puts at $2 and sell them a week later for $6 netting $40,000, and that was in 1980 dollars so it meant something. Fun!

  445. pimaCanyon

    thanks, Veronica!

    DG, what a great trade! You’ve been at this for a while, I see. Maybe you can do something similar on the upcoming D wave, eh?

  446. Veronica

    My SLV momentum system has only had 1 long losing trade since last summer.It went to a buy today:):)I don’t trade a lot of silver but maybe I should.

  447. Free gold? Yes please!

    Poly- Thank you very much for welcoming me to this “community!” I’m happy to be here 🙂

    Gary-

    Tonight’s article was brilliant! Until I read it I was still feeling uneasy about the prospect of a market drop taking down silver/gold like in ’08.

    However, I have a question about our current stop price in gold: I know you wrote in prior post that another outside episode (like last week’s Japanese “fallout”) might cause gold/silver to drop temporarily below the stop price, only to rise right back up again.

    What if, instead of a physical disaster, gold/silver drops below the stop price simply because the stock market starts to crater from these artificially high levels?

    Since most people in the investing world assume that ’08 is the rule instead of the exception, a big drop in stocks might cause the “herd” to cause gold/silver to take a nasty fall for a few days below our stop price.

    Would you consider staying in gold/silver in this Non-natural disaster type scenario?

  448. Gary

    First off I doubt it’s going to happen. Collectively the market isn’t stupid. Certainly from time to time the market will do stupid things…like what happened last week with the Japan situation.

    But on the whole irrational moves don’t tend to last very long.

    Now if the dollar collapse continues, and I think it will, the market is going to have to exit stocks and protect itself in commodities.

    Since I don’t think the market can remain irrational for very long that means liquidity will leak out of stocks and find it’s way into precious metals as protection from the coming dollar crisis.

    In that scenario there’s no way gold goes down. And let’s face it one would have to be an idiot to go to cash in a dollar crisis.

    Most people aren’t idiots.

  449. DG

    Veronica: Great! How many signals has it had? Does it get them often? How much can one expect as a drawdown under a new buy?

  450. Veronica

    DG, 11 signals since last summer, with 1 losing long trade and 1 winning short trade.All the long winning trades had less than 1.00 drawdown and were off and running hard 1-3 days after the signal.

  451. Free gold? Yes please!

    Gary- Thank you. That makes sense. I’m still trying to wrap my brain around this whole currency collapse that’s happening in real time. This must be what a deer feels like when it is “caught in the headlights” of an oncoming 16-wheeler…

  452. Veronica

    The last short signal came on 3/15 the exact day of the low. Why the hell wasn’t I paying more attention to that chart?Argh…

  453. ...at ease

    Is anyone diversified right now with money in the stock market or mutual funds other than metals and miners? I am just wondering if you get questioned as I do as to why I am not diversified outside of gold. I just was told that I am falling prey to the fear mongering, and because I am not diversified, that I will loose everything cause no one can time the highs and lows in cycles, it just can’t be done. Wheewww, I remained calm. The economy topic is topic is getting as bad as politics.

  454. Veronica

    In fact every short signal except for the one on 1/5 marked the exact bottom in SLV.BTW, the SLV system works much better than when it is applied to silver futures.

  455. Brian

    Veronica, Does this mean your SLV momentum indicator means buy when it says buy? As opposed to the Gold indicator that means sell when it says buy?

  456. Veronica

    DG, the SLV system is very much like my gold system always long or short, but with different inputs.When the buy flips to a sell for some strange reason has marked the lows to the day so if i would have been trading actively in silver I could have bought SLV EOD or aftermarket on the day of the sell and have had an extremely tight stop at the low of the day.It’s hard for me to explain on a blog but to see it on a chart is pretty incredible.

  457. Veronica

    A buy on my gold and SLV systems always means a buy.In certain situations like early IT upmoves the sells are ignored, and can be used to add using the low of the sell day as a stop loss.I think I will stop talking about how I interpret sells as buys at times because it seems to be creating a lot of confusion. From now on I will only post buys/sells the system generates.

  458. DG

    O.K. I give up trying to understand your terminology. Saying to buy when you get a sell short signal—sometimes—is too much for my pea-sized brain apparently.

  459. Brian

    Veronica, maybe you could just paste a why. I know you brought this up before, but with the thousands of comments, I did not see the explanation and did not have time to sift them out.

    Everybody here appreciates good information and your published record is commendable. It has been confusing though. Seems just a couple of the bloggers have it down.

  460. ...at ease

    Have you all heard anything about ETF change in symbols. I was just notified by Fidelity in my online accounts system:

    PowerShares Symbol Changes
    Please note that effective immediately, Nasdaq has implemented the following ETF symbol changes. Any open ETF or option orders for impacted symbols have been cancelled.

    Please update your Watch Lists and Alerts for these new symbols as the old symbols will no longer be recognized.

    ETF Symbol Changes Current Symbol New Symbol
    PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 QQQQ Now: QQQ
    PowerShares S&P SmallCap Materials Portfolio XLBS Now PSCM
    PowerShares S&P SmallCap Energy Portfolio XLES Now PSCE
    PowerShares S&P SmallCap Financials Portfolio XLFS Now PSCF
    PowerShares S&P SmallCap Industrials XLIS Now PSCI
    PowerShares S&P SmallCap Information Technology Portfolio XLKS Now PSCT
    PowerShares S&P SmallCap Consumer Staples Portfolio XLPS Now PSCC
    PowerShares S&P SmallCap Utilities Portfolio XLUS Now PSCU
    PowerShares S&P SmallCap Health Care Portfolio XLVS Now PSCH
    PowerShares S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary Portfolio XLYS Now PSCD

  461. NJ

    Jeez – Sorry Pima, I did not realize the site was down for the bulk of the day….I just checked it around 8pm EST and found it down – assumed Gary was updating it…My apologies.

  462. Veronica

    Brian, gold and SLV are on buy signals, and I am long gold futures and SLV. A buy always means a buy with both systems and I will not be posting any more about how I may or may not interpret sell signals marking bottoms.DG, sorry about all the confusion and I will probably not be adding any more SLV/AGQ as I added 50% more gold futures with my buy signal at 1428.

  463. Brian

    Veronica, No worries here, we do pretty well hitting the IT lows with Gary. I thought your system may have something to help at daily cycle lows for add points, but if it went off at 1428 for an add point that probably did not add much alpha. If it had hit at 1385 to 1395 we would have had a pretty good edge.

  464. DG

    Veronica: My last shot—I am always interested in anything with a good track record. Rather than calling it “a buy that means sell” or whatever, you could just say “My system just indicated that we are 90% likely to go up within the next three days.” Clear. Unambiguous. No jargon. I’d love to know if if underlying conditions enable you to make such a statement, and that’s really the meat of it, that is, what’s going to happen in the near future.

    Thanks and sorry if I have belabored this.

  465. Veronica

    DG, yes the SLV system says to buy any weakness tomorrow, but I personally will not be adding anything as my leverage is fairly high.

  466. Hot Rod

    Alright….

    So what is the deal with the COMEX silver for March deliveries. Ted, Harvey, SGS, all these guys are pointed that they can’t deliver all the March contracts in the next week.

    In the end, does it matter? So what if there are open March contracts in April? Does it mean “default?”

    So what if “we” call a default? Will it mean people with money will then rush in to buy because of it?

    I’m tired of hearing this COMEX default talk without any real “speculation” on what events will happen as a result.

  467. Veronica

    DG, the momentum system trades normally last an average of 27 days with 65% winners on the long trades.SLV has performed very well since last summer with the rises coming almost immediately after the buy signal but I can’t put any probabilities to this at all.All I can do is take the trade and I either make $ or get stopped out. It is not like the USERX/pit trade that is very clearly in and out in a few days with 90% winners. My head hurts;going to bed.

  468. ALEX

    Brian

    Thought of you when I was watching REE and AVL and MCP today…you still got your AVL?

    I think this time may be a nice breakout-good consolidations like this one now has can move nicely 🙂

    Anyone remember FTK? Another nice Break out!

    I’m not saying what I bought today out of respect for Garys blog…its a scary one and I dont want anyone to follow me in this one -but the set up today was too good to resist…’Should Have Zip’ to it 🙂

    a lot of newer ones on here, I dont want to risk anyone

  469. Le Fou

    at ease,

    the best way to avoid questions about your diversification is not to tell anyone about your diversification or lack thereof. BTW, are you concentrated in gold? How come you haven’t diversified into silver?

  470. ...at ease

    Le Fou,
    I was in all GLD most of last year until I found SMT. After that I moved some GLD into SLW, SLV, SIL, AGQ. Probably 60G/40S mix total throughout accounts, so I consider that diversified. Prior I just stayined in GLD and took profits at times. I made the mistake of warning someone they might think of getting out of the market for a few weeks or month, and got turned on and it got turned on me. Won’t do that again. I just listened and said, yeah I hear you, but that didn’t work for me, so have changed strategies. I just didn’t realize that this topic was as bad as discussing politics or religion. But I also realize that people still think things are like they were or the way they want them to be, not the way they are or changing.

  471. MarkMarin

    Alex,

    I have a basket of REE stocks that I bought in late 2009, although I took profits about along the way, so the positions I still hold is free and clear. You might check two Canadian REE stocks traded on the Vancouver exchange: QRM and TSM – both have solid charts and OTCBB equivalents. I also hold the nifty MCP, REE, & AVL.

  472. ALEX

    MarkMarin

    I actually have traded these ,and they’ve acted very well. They are huge % movers when they move. I got REE around 9 and it doubled in about 6 days! I was in and out of AVL this DEC too-and posted on here.

    I havent touched them since, because they ran too far too fast and retested highs on light volume…but they look ready for another nice run (volume today was great).

    And selling and riding free shares…THATS a great feeling…congrats!

  473. I've Eaten Silver

    Gary,

    So you believe the dollar will make a lower low (assuming we get a 3-year cycle low this year) then in 2014?

    Would you postulate then in 2017 we’d see yet again another 3 year cycle low versus 2014, and that would mark the end of the PM bull?

  474. jeff

    dollar gapped up last night .. lost it all already. traders out there saying ‘ i just know this is going to bounce back up’.
    nope its got nothing, move over zimbabwe

  475. Jure

    Hi everyone. I’m fresh SMT subscriber and new to the blog, so maybe this question has already been answered.

    I understand that dollar should rally from its 3 year cycle low. But what will be the fundamental driver for this rally? What kind of event will actually push the dollar up? And what if that doesn’t happen? Thank you

  476. ALEX

    Blogger ddn3f said…

    Anyone know of any free charting service that would be good to follow along with Gary’s cycles?

    I am not sure of exactly what kind of charting you need, but I use ‘stockcharts’ which is free for some things (but only goes back 3 yrs)and you can Annotate

    and I use BIGCHARTS.com also

  477. T.J. Rand

    I’ve wondered about the events in Europe/Portugal. There should be pressure for the dollar to rise with people fleeing the Euro. But that should be good for PMs as well.

    I expect that the 3 yr cycle low in the dollar is powerful enough to swamp this cross-current, but it will be interesting to watch.

  478. DG

    Interesting. I posted yesterday that the dollar showed up on my long screen and the euro showed up on my short screen. Well, the trade is working but silver is up anyway. We may well have started that parabolic rise we’ve been hoping for if even a decent dollar bounce can’t stop its rise.

  479. Haggerty

    Jure

    To answer your question on the dollar. I think conditions on the dollar will be so oversold that it will be due for a rally and a very strong one at that.

  480. ALEX

    For owner of EXK

    great news from Chairman and ceo

    “In 2011, management is forecasting Endeavour’s seventh consecutive year of organic silver production growth by expanding the Guanajuato plant from 600 up to 1000 tonnes per day. Cash costs are expected to continue declining into the mid-$5 per oz range and if we assume a US$30 average silver price in 2010, our mine operating profit margin will be around $24 per oz — remarkable by any standards.”

    for more….

    http://www.silver-prices.net/endeavour-silver-corp-looking-for-an-operating-profit-of-24oz/#more-1172

  481. Gary

    At a three year cycle low sentiment gets so extreme that we just run out of sellers. That triggers a powerful short covering rally.

    The bounce is violent enough that traders become convinced something fundamental has changed and they buy into the long scenario. That gives the rally even more legs and more shorts cover.

    Usually this process will last about a year before the fundamentals drag it back down.

    This is just normal bear market action.

    Markets go down differently than they go up.

  482. T.J. Rand

    at ease-

    My wife is supportive of PMs for fundamental reasons, and I don’t really talk with family members anymore about PMs being the place to be. I’ve tried, but gave up due to a lack of receptivity.

    At a Christmas dinner, when I asked them where they would rather put money, they hemmed and hawed and turned the issue back to the risks of PMs. It reinforced to me the power of uninformed bias – nothing is more powerful than what people want to believe.

  483. ALEX

    DG

    I responded to your email last night, I am on my way to the doctor now…if you never hear from me again…just sell GPL at $7 to be safe 🙂 I know you hold me personally responsible for that one.

    I’m guessing it’ll be there this afternoon sometime (yeah right 😉

  484. Otis

    …and PMs don’t seem to care about dollar bounce. On stock charts that longterm trend line in the USD (vs. DX) looks like it was broken and being backtested.

  485. DG

    Interesting. I posted yesterday that the dollar showed up on my long screen and the euro showed up on my short screen. Well, the trade is working but silver is up anyway. We may well have started that parabolic rise we’ve been hoping for if even a decent dollar bounce can’t stop its rise.

  486. pimaCanyon

    Veronica,

    I understand your signals and very much appreciate it when you post one!

    To the rest of you guys who get confused by them, we’ve been over this before, but we’ll do it again… 🙂

    Part of the confusion may be this:

    Veronica = vuvvy. Same person. vuvvy posted signals in the past and explained them at that time.

    She used to use her system by itself and would just take the signals as they are, buy means buy, sell means sell. But now that she has Gary’s cycle data, she’s noticed that after an IT low, when her system gives a sell signal it often marks the bottom of a daily cycle low.

    So using her system combined with Gary’s: A buy is always a buy, but a sell just MIGHT mark a daily cycle low if we are early in the IT cycle.

    Buy means buy, never any question about that.

    Sell may mean sell or may mark a daily cycle low, depends.

    If this is too confusing, just ignore her signals. You have Gary, right?

    I like seeing her signals because it might give me just the additional confidence I need to add to my positions if I’m looking to add.

    Keep ’em coming Veronica!

  487. ...at ease

    Thanks Jeff, I like that response. I was just surprised how I was personally attacked on my personal judgment capabilties.

    TJ Rand, yes, I have heard the gammot, or silence from family members. I was told that everyone (family) is wondering what the heck is Mom doing trading the market and especially gold. I just know what I saw and like what I see. Just glad I found this site! Reinforced my beliefs. There are still so many people out there investing in gold, but blindly just holding through it all instead of the mutual funds they did in the past. Overall they should do well, but what a ride they are on.

Comments are closed.