I think we are fast approaching the lift off point for the parabolic rally that always caps a C-wave advance. Once that begins there will be no more good entries into this market. All pullbacks will be mild or intra-day only. I’ve done everything I can think of to get people on board before the move starts. Hopefully you took the advice and got in at the intermediate cycle low in January or at the daily cycle low last week.
I’ve cautioned repeatedly to ignore the technicians trying to call tops. These analysts just don’t understand what is happening to the dollar. This isn’t about technicals. It’s about fundamentals. This is about a currency crisis. Folks in a currency collapse you would have to be an idiot to go to cash. I guarantee the market taken as a whole isn’t stupid. It’s going to find a way to protect itself. That will of course be to exchange dollars for gold, silver and mining stocks as the dollar collapse starts to intensify.
There will undoubtedly be a never ending stream of top callers all the way up. But the market is going to make these people pay dearly for jumping off the bull too early. Overbought is going to be a meaningless term in the days and weeks ahead. The only thing that will matter is finding something to buy in order to protect ones purchasing power from the currency crisis.
This will not end until the dollar puts in the final three year cycle low.
This will be the last day for the 15 month special. 15 months for the price of 12 ($200). Here is the link to the premium website. Scroll down to the bottom of the page and click on the subscribe link. Enter ‘smt15‘ in the promotional code box and click continue. That will take you to a page with the 15 month offer.
Gary,
In our 401K’s I do feel like an idiot for going to cash a while back thinking the market would have a hard time getting above 11,800.
What is suggested for 401K’s when all you have are crappy, limited options?
Stock funds suck.
Bond funds suck.
Freedom Funds suck.
Money Markets suck.
Do you think cash there is the best place now?
Thanks.
Rodney
Unfortunately with nothing to protect yourself You will probably just have to wait patiently for the next 4 year cycle low to get back into stocks. Which means you are going to get pummeled for a couple of months sitting in cash, but you really don’t have any other option.
I have been following this blog since late last year. Became a monthly sub in early March.
I just renewed for the 15 month special.
To any lurkers who are considering subscribing, the nightly and weekend reports are well worth it. You’d spend more on one nice dinner out than you would for 15 months of what has been great advice and guidance. Do yourself a favor.
Hot Rod, I’m in the same boat. re: 401ks. I do have a natural resources fund that is mostly energy, so I still have some of that, but am about 65% cash. I plan to ride it to the next low and then reenter.
Veronica,
I understand your signals and very much appreciate it when you post one!
To the rest of you guys who get confused by them, we’ve been over this before, but we’ll do it again… 🙂
Part of the confusion may be this:
Veronica = vuvvy. Same person. vuvvy posted signals in the past and explained them at that time.
She used to use her system by itself and would just take the signals as they are, buy means buy, sell means sell. But now that she has Gary’s cycle data, she’s noticed that after an IT low, when her system gives a sell signal it often marks the bottom of a daily cycle low.
So using her system combined with Gary’s: A buy is always a buy, but a sell just MIGHT mark a daily cycle low if we are early in the IT cycle.
Buy means buy, never any question about that.
Sell may mean sell or may mark a daily cycle low, depends.
If this is too confusing, just ignore her signals. You have Gary, right?
I like seeing her signals because it might give me just the additional confidence I need to add to my positions if I’m looking to add.
Keep ’em coming Veronica!
Earlier in the week I said that getting whipsawed and thrashing about last week probably hit my account for 7-10% (measured from my balance at the peak prices of gold and silver.)
I didn’t want to wade through my transaction logs to fully calculate so it was only a guess.
Now that gold and silver are roughly back up to the highs again, my account balance is the SAME as before. This means that my losses from whipsaw trading were made up for by an increase in silver position (50%) that I was able to take on thurs/fri.
So it all worked out ok in the end. (But clearly I would actually have gains now instead of being flat if I had executed better.) Still…i’ll take the result. As I said, these things happen.
PimaCanyon,
I agree. Love Veronica/Vuvvy’s signals. Keep them coming. I wonder how the signals will work during the D-wave though. Will a sell really mean a sell and a buy would mean the top of the daily cycle? Lets see.
HOTROD,
>What is suggested for 401K’s when all you have are crappy, limited options?
Talk to your employer and find a way to quit the company for a week or so (just take a regular vacation), roll the 401K into an IRA, then get re-hired again (or work as a contractor).
I’ve made this suggestion before and people jumped on me saying things like “You don’t know what my company is like”, “Nobody cares about me if I leave”, etc. etc.
All I can say is that *I* would find a way to get it done if *I* was in that position.
That is very interesting, PC! Thanks for the clarification. Is her system based on some price momentum indicator – like RSI??
Veronica/Vuvvy … as pima says … keep em coming … that’s exactly how I interpret them as well.
Enough with the test posts.
Oops! Sorry Gary, I was trying to get the posts via email and the only way I know how is to post something.
hmm
Gary, I understand how the dollars move lower will continue to raise inflationary pressures across the board. I’ve felt it at the pump and at the grocery store. What do you expect by way of gas prices groceries etc. when the dollar begins its about face after we reach extremely over sold conditions? How long do you expect that period to last?
TZ,
I sincerely appreciate the thought on this.
Your suggestion is really not feasible and pretty risky.
(side note, I did just leave my company about a month ago and have already happily rolled over that dough)
A company has to wait until 30 days after your last paycheck in order to tell the brokerage to release the acct. It takes about 2 weeks after your last paycheck for the deductions to go through. In my case, I was on them so they did it quicker (thank f-ing god).
Also, 401k’s have a vesting cycle. So if someone is not vested, they will lose the employer match.
Also, companies are super sensitive to “bridging” benefits if someone leaves, gets cold feet and then are accepted back quickly. It is a ton more work for HR.
Also, it is (in my opinion) always a risk to go to HR, let alone for something along the lines of this. Things end up being “the hugest deal” and you wouldn’t believe how high up in the food chain this goes (approvals needed).
Believe me, I am not a fan of these “nuances” of corporate america. Just my 2 cents from personal experience in my young age.
Thanks.
Pima,
Thanks a lot for the detail. I will certainly look more closely at Veronica’s info now that I understand. Knowledge is Power.
Rodney
P.S. – I’m not a fan that my handle is “hot rod.” Years ago I started a blog thinking I was hot shit about NFL spread picks and this is the nickname I set. When I logged in to post here, it pulled it automatically. One of these days I am going to try to change it.
Just goes to show you how strong this move is in gold and silver. The dollar has rallied pretty good and we are still up nice. It’s not drawing too much attention, but when the dollar starts to crack we are going to be up huge
ddnf3,
You’re right, once the D wave starts, all bets are off.
As we approach the top of the C wave, especially if Gary starts indicating things are getting toppy, if Veronica posts a “sell”, I will probably take it at face value because at that time we will no longer be early in the IT cycle (we’ll be well into it or even late in the cycle).
I think I will just watch during the D wave. (Or maybe do a very small lotto play on some puts, we’ll see what Poly decides to do about that 🙂
Would it be a bad idea to short silver using ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) as the price collapses in the d-wave?
HOT ROD,
CONGRATS! you are the *first* person who seems to have thought my suggestion through and examined the pros/cons of it. Most others just shrugged it off.
Yes, there are issues. And it also depends on the employee (clock puncher? or valuable gem?). Size of the company too.
If a person has a 20kd 401k or something it doesn’t matter. But if I was someone sitting on a huge 401k that was most of my net worth, I DARN sure wouldn’t let it go down the drain. So far as to even quit the company.
Anyway, good luck with it and thanks for some of your clarifications which will help others.
Test
Test
Man, I love Green candles…
I have to laugh when I hear this talk about shorting D-waves, like it’s really that easy to do.
It’s easy to say one will short silver during a D-wave but in real time it’s a completely different ball game. There are many violent counter trend rallies that will almost surely kick you out for losses.
Plus if you miss time the top and the C-wave goes much farther than you expect a double inverse fund will quickly wipeout all your gains from the C-wave.
The only way to play the short side is to buy a few puts that you are willing to lose completely if it doesn’t pan out.
Eamonn,
Gary will say never short bull markets. NEVER. So don’t do it. If you want a lottery ticket where you are willing to lose the money, that’s your choice. But never short a bull market.
Ok, thank you Gary & ddn3f. My education continues
TJ Rand, I wanted to echo what you said about warning your family. I am sure everybody we know thinks we are wearing our tin foil hats.
Dude,
gold and silver foil hats.
Miners don’t care that stocks are going lower. Nice.
I had mentioned this here earier but again for benifit of 401k discussion. IN fidelity they have option to open linked account to 401k. The linked account then can be operated just like any IRA. linked account still remains under all rules of 401k. I have done it long time back. Last time someone checked with fidelity they told it is based on employer and its terms and conditions. So it may depends on your employer. I don’t know about other 401k administrators.
One more way is get many employess asking for one PM mutual fund option and employer can push for it. They will never allow direct metal but something like fidelity gold fund which is mostly like gdx may be given as option.
SLW flying today. Hope it is a leading indicator:)
Dollar makes a swing low.
Gold/silver bouncing higher.
What gives? Will the dollar tag the trendline it broke through last week before it heads down?
Le Fou
I JUST LOVE MY PORTFOLIO MIX!!! =)
Yash,
About a year ago I did ask my employer to add a PM fund, the fidelity one FSAGX. I explained that it would give balance and an alternative to the stocks, bonds funds in case of a correction, etc.
They took about a month saying they would follow up, etc., etc., and they came back denying it saying that they did a review and that they provided a good basket of options.
Rodney
HOTROD,
>They took about a month saying they would follow up, etc., etc., and they came back denying it saying that they did a review and that they provided a good basket of options.
Go over their head. Call the CEO. Set up a 15min call and explain the situation.
Would SLW be expected to perform better than AGQ during the c-wave?
They fact is they do NOT provide a ‘good basket’ to pick from. You can make this case from numerous facts about what happens to countries when they go BK.
new high silver!
So happy I bought SLW June 45 the other day.
Gary: Forgive me but I really disagree about shorting a D-wave (or anything else). You are right that it is hard to catch a blow-off top, so that’s not the place to do it. You wait for a break or reversal on huge volume and short on the bounce. If you pick your spot carefully you have a reasonable stop and it may take a few tries to get it. Once you do you have strong hand status just like when you are long. There’s no reason for a violent rally to shake you out anymore than a sharp drop needs to shake you out when you are long.
You are also right about the math favoring the long side, but the math also means if you miss the top it doesn’t matter (80 to 40 or 75 to 40 is about the same). And you are absolutely right to avoid trying to pick the top of a parabolic rise. That’s how you go broke! We’ll argue more when we get there 😉
most of options in 401k are decided on long long term performance .. so over 10 yrs.. so if one can prove fidleity gold funds 10 yr performance which is 20% per year it will get attention .. many a times people don’t even know performance of gold funds. although i am not using my 401k options we have most of funds that are 8-10% per year returns over last 10 years which according to employer very good too so they tend to overlook PM fund.
I think the thing to do re 401k is put only the minimum you need to get the employer match. If you can afford to save additional money, put that into a Roth IRA up to the yearly max, and then if you can afford additional saving beyond that, put those funds into a regular brokerage account. In other words, if you can afford to save 25 percent of your salary, don’t just dump that all into the 401k. Put it where you can have control over how the funds are invested.
(One other thing to look into: Can you add funds to both a Roth and a traditional IRA during the same tax year, assuming you max out the Roth first? If the answer is yes, then you would also have to check out whether you can add funds to a traditional IRA if your company has a 401k. If the answer to that is yes, then the order would be: 1) 401k to get employer match, 2) Roth IRA max out for the year, 3) Traditional IRA max out for the year, 4) your regular brokerage account.
DG,
I know I am looking for a few lottery tickets when silver will drop. You are correct the lowest risk entry is to short on a bounce to a lower high after a high volume reversal.
I am only interested in silver because silver has a nasty tendency to drop really hard and fast. If you do go short after the end of the C-wave, let us know.
DG,
The problem is is just doesn’t work in real time. If you miss a few times, which you will in a parabolic move, then you start off in the hole. Probably deep in the hole. Then you are struggling to make back your losses.
If you get kicked out by the violent counter trend rallies you compound the losses to the point where it’s impossible to recover with a short trade.
And then here is the biggie. What if this just happens to turn out to be the beginning of the bubble. Gold and silver will just keep ramping higher and higher for hundreds of percent. You will end up with massive losses.
There is really only one way to short a bull like this. But a few puts and only as many as you are willing to lose everything. Then close your eyes and wait for the Blees rating to push above 90 or a tag of the 200 DMA which ever comes first.
TZ,
You crack me up. Obviously, you have never worked for a large company in corporate America. Lucky you!
BTW we will see several high volume reversals during this move. All but the last one will be a fake out.
pima – I beleive 2 and 3 combined has max limit of 5000.
for higher salaried people maxing out 401k used to give big tax advantage.
cheers to the best trading community I’ve ever seen… thanks Gary, DG, Veronica, Poly, Pima, ddn3f, David, etc
>You crack me up. Obviously, you have never worked for a large company in corporate America. Lucky you!
So not joining a large faceless company is based on luck?
Um..ok.
Gary: “When the bird and the book disagree believe the bird.” I have been doing just what you say is impossible for many years. Let’s see what happens when we get there. I will post real-time trades.
TZ,
Not everyone has the options available to them that you have had. You are obviously very smart for one thing. You know where the center of the bell curve is for IQ? 100. That’s right, for every person who has an IQ of 125 (smart, but not genius), there’s one who has an IQ of 75. Someone with an IQ of 75 would probably jump at the chance to get a job in a “faceless large corporation”.
Call it luck, call it good fortune, whatever it is, you have it. That’s not to say you haven’t worked hard or made smart choices. I’m just saying that not everyone is as smart as you or maybe even hasn’t had as many opportunities as you. They have to make the best of the hand they’ve been dealt in this life.
Any reason for the gold & silver rise from the past hour?
Classic and predictable move this morning.
New 30 yr highs, give it a moment or two to digest….then “nothing but blue sky’s”
hi Gary
Regarding the Silver Wheaton Position, is your stop just below $38? Perhaps you could add the Silver position to your Stops And Trade Triggers Page? Lastly, are you fully invested now?
thanks – your commentary is always appreciated
Silver new highs, gold almost there, but dollar UP??? One of these two is not right – silver trade seems very speculative to me – how do I know – AGQ – very dangerous vehicle for those who were trading SKF back in the day. When that puppy bursts, it will probably go back to $60’s just like SKF and the Wall St honchos will make out like bandits. Just be sure to have tight stops if you are in it.
Also, miners are lagging still, seems like a non-confirmation to me. Parabolic rally – the parabola started in August and the air is getting very thin…just keep in mind my old friend DXY 72.5 for an emergency escape hatch 🙂
Hi Gary
Just a further question, from your past experience of C waves, do gaps close as the stocks make their way higher? There are a few dangerous looking ones on Silver Wheaton at around $39 and $40 mark.
thanks
TZ: I hope you can forgive me, but after a wile I just can’t stand it anymore…Are you ever wrong? Do you ever learn anything from someone else? Have you ever in your life said, “Gee, that’s a good point. I hadn’t thought of that.” I know you think you are the smartest guy on the planet, but can’t you even pretend not to think you are God’s gift? Even a tad of occasional humility would make your stuff easier to read. It has value, but geez, I have to swim through your ego to get to it. I can live with that, but your posted replies that imply the other guy is an idiot get tiresome. I’m sure you’ll post some witty retort showing how I have misunderstood you, or you don’t really do what you obviously do, but on the 1 in 100 chance what I am saying will penetrate, I thought to take a shot. I will not comment again on this (I hope!). Apologies in advance if I have crossed the line here.
Just saw the gap up on DXY. Don’t know what to make of it.
Coolkevs: These things do not stay in lockstep every hour or every day. Once the big money realizes the dollar is toast, the PM’s will go up because they need to buy. Whether the dollar is up on a particular day or not doesn’t matter.
To All,
I’m currently invested in AGQ, SLW, SIL, GPL and yes USSIF.
Very small ‘lotto’ position in USSIF and thinking about adding more into this C-wave.
If you were in my position and had a little more dry powder to work with what would you do and why?
Also, Alex and others knowledgeable in the area of Juniors what is your strategy for unloading gpl/ussif?
TIA
coolkevs,
SLV up 1.2 percent
SLW up 3.4 percent
SVM up 3.04 percent
The miners are lagging??
DG,
Actually you proved my point back in the early part of the year trying to short the stock market.
The difference is that the metals are much more volatile and the losses will be much larger.
GLD up .96 percent
GDXJ up 2.42 percent
Coolkevs
I see what your saying but I just think that’s because the dollar is up today. IMO Smartmoney is buying today and the followers will be buying tomorrow, there is probably still confusion out there.
Gary: I was shorting with pennies and wound up losing nothing. There was never a clear place to do it. Had we had an up 150 day closing down 1150 and then rallied into the meat of the reversal I’d have done it in size, but my approach kept me from losing anything. If you can place trades and either win or break even you will do very well. All I proved is that with proper risk management you do fine even if you are wrong.
Cooldevs,
AGQ will track Silver x2 very well, especially in a fast moving market over just an 8 week period.
I was caught up in SKF when the crises when full tilt, don’t forget the big financial boys pushed a ban through on short selling financial, it really messed with this instrument.
If you’re going to ride AGQ to $60 or even $160, then you’re probably not paying to much attention to Gary and this blog 🙂
It’s similar to TZ’s use of large leverage. He knows what he is doing and is very disciplined. Not recommended for most folks, perhaps, but with discipline, risk management, and intelligent entries, you can do quite well. Again, I will post when we get there. If I don’t get the right setup I won’t take it. Trading is asymmetrical: You can wait forever for the right entry, it’s knowing when to exit that’s hard.
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New York: First Majestic (AG) is the best of the miners. I’ve posted about it in the past, but here’s a great article recently written about it.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/259013-first-majestic-silver-miner-with-the-most-shine?source=yahoo
Matthew, this kind of information you’d do better not to mention on blog that is free to everyone.As subscriber, i think gary’s porftolio and every infirmations sensible are let know just for subscribers.
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do you get k-1 form for dgp?
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Dg,
If you keep positions size very small then yes you can’t lose much money. The trade off is that you can’t make much either.
If that is the strategy then by all means short away. It would be more of a can I do it or not trade. Not something that will make any real money.
The only way I would ever consider shorting a D-wave would be to buy a few at the money or out of the money puts and then close my eyes and see if they pan out in a couple of months.
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wow way sorry deleted..oops I was a little confused.. so this is not the premium locations..way sorry
Gary,
Dollar bounce today, par for the course?
So..is there a spot where just subscribers can comment..
As I posted before, there is no mystery here, silver March Delivery is in 5 business days, the COMEX must find 4.2 million ounces as of last night to satisfy current longs. Price must go up to bribe people off of their positions so they can roll to May and do it again. Research every delivery month in the past, and especially December as it was also a big OI delivery month. Tie those to Gary’s cycle work.
We will rise hard into this OE day, and then sell off some, before we push into the May delivery period.
These tie very nicely to Gary’s cycles daily and intermediate so added confidence.
Mr M,
Sure nothing goes straight down. It’s still way too early for a cycle low.
anybody see gdxj ‘s cup & handle..
Wingman,
Thanks for that. Would you advise getting out of USSIF and still getting into AG at this level?
It looks like it’s at/around it 2 yr high right now…
The small positions are only probes. You add on the violent bounces. The probes keep you from getting hammered if you are wrong having placed a large order. If you lose on the probes you don’t add and so don’t lose much. If you short, get a 5% drop, and then bounce 2% to resistance you add. Yes, it’s a lot more work than buying in a bull and taking a nap, but if you like the sport it doesn’t feel like “work” and more than rock-climbing does (which, by the way would be dangerous for me and work.)
O.K.—your blog—you get the last word (until the D-wave starts…)
oa92000: you looking at a 1-minute chart?
Hi Gary,
In your opinion, is it too late now to get into options and better to use something more conservative like SLV or do you think it is still early enough in the game to buy some calls?
Thanks!
cmt,
daily chart.
DG,
OK when the D-wave starts you can try to short and I’ll just buy a couple of puts 🙂
Re: 401k
What I did was take out a 401k loan and put that cash to work in metals.
MD,
Only buy options if you know what you are doing. They should be for controlling risk not for huge leverage. But if you are a subscriber then you know I think gold is going to 1600+ and silver to 50.
In that scenario does it seem like it’s too late to add to positions to you?
Matthew,
There is no subscriber only comment area unfortunately. We just try to keep the premium info off the boards.
OK folks your on your own today. I’m headed out to the cliffs.
Wingman,
Do you know why PZG has been left behind today?
So Bob
Do you own any options that expire in May? Because those options will expire prior to the next delivery I guess a week after.
Or would your next options purchases be the June type?
ALEX, hope your trip to the doc was fine.
What is this “too hot for the blog” pick you mentioned this morning? I am interested. You can add a ton of discalimers around it while posting. But do post.
Gary, Looking to protect some money in a American Century account w/o many options. Only PM related fund available is BGEIX, looks like a mix of gold and silver miners at first glance. Feelings on viability for this parabolic move up considering the declining dollar?
I know you mentioned that the miners got hit hard during the credit collapse, and that was a rare event in which everything was sold indiscriminately. Will be miners get hit when the market reacts to our flimsy currency?
“coolkevs said..
AGQ – very dangerous vehicle for those who were trading SKF back in the day”
I agree with coolkevs on this one, you can win big & you can lose big.
DG,
I think Gary may just be trying to protect those that have little experience in shorting something as volatile as a D wave. He’s working hard to help folks make enough money to maybe even change their lifestyles. He would probably be disappointed if even a few gave it all back in a heartbeat.
Don’t take it personally.
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anybody knows if dgp issues k-1 form?
New York: To answer your questions, I bought more of it in my brother’s account just this morning, both shares and May $17.50calls.
Again, I believe AG is the best of the bunch, so if you believe silver is moving into the parabolic stage of the C wave and you want exposure to miners, then in my opinion this is the one to go to.
Angry Hippy, I think Gary is off for the day climbing. But if you have spent any time on this blog, you know a dollar collapse is expected to propel gold/silver and the associated miners up!
Hot Rod and others, if you can, eliminate, or reduce your 401k in favor of a Roth IRA. Just be wary that if you cap gains get too large, you’ll go over the AGI limit for contributing to a Roth.
Both the dollar and the metals are up. One of them is lying.
SLV is at new all time highs!
Silverman: Yes I know. Gary and I have been tossing this back and forth for a long time. I don’t take it personally at all. It’s just his implication that it’s impossible that I take issue with. “Difficult” yes. “Impossible,” no. Hell, to me rock climbing is “impossible.” Thanks for posting.
PZG has two announcements coming in the next couple of weeks. First is the assay report on the tailings pile at Sleeper, which should give them about $70 million of silver they can use to fund exploration.
The big one is the new NI 43-101 on Mexico. If it shows over five million ounces, they will sell the project or the whole company, probably to CDE or one of the Mexican majors.
Disclosure: I’m all in, AGQ& PZG are biggest holdings.
Haggerty, I rolled half my options in April to May on Monday and Tuesday, and will close my remaining Monday or Tuesday next week, then wait for the next daily swing low to buy May options again.
But to be clear this is a small portion of my portfolio.
DG you clearly have years of experience but I think Gary’s methods is safest for most. Shorting corrections is very tricky because they are more violent and shorter duration than playing the long side. Timing is essential.
I have no doubt it can be done but it takes an expert and someone who can ignore the emotional side of trading. Most who try (myself included) have just gotten burned.
Keep posting your entries/results though…it is good to learn from regardless.
skf was a lot more dangerous. The gov’t intervenes on behalf of the people they serve, the bankers. Remember TARP, the bailouts, the down payment tax break, cash for clunkers, the 20+ trillion in toxic financial instrument backstopping, the banning of shorts of the major banks. All those were designed to help… bankers!
What have we seen in the PM arena, which is incredibly tiny compared ot the banker arena: a small rise in margin requirements for silver.
aries: sorry, I don’t know enough about PZG to really comment on it. What I would ask is if it’s been stalling through this move. If it has then I’d look for news on it and strongly consider moving out of it. Best of luck!
the dollar is toast until July 4th.
haha.. funny if the reversal of the USD comes then. but it looks that way.
anyways currently we know which one is lying. buy gold on any weakness in this market.
Thanks Romeo. Thats what thought, based on what I have heard on the blog, but sometimes it takes me 2 or 3 times. Just want to make sure I am getting it.
Angry Hippy, no problem! Things should be really rolling now so if all goes as planned hang on tight for the next few weeks/month or two.
Mike: Yes, I am not recommending it, but we have some people here who really could do it well, and have just never really shorted. I am encouraging those who are close to ready to take the leap when the time comes. It develops trading and discipline skills that come in handy no matter what your approach is.
Heck, that rogue Alex got me into my first junior miner ever just last month. If even I can learn something there’s hope for everyone!
Mike,
Love the photo. (I had one of Spider Meadow for my avatar for a while).
I lived on Whidbey Island for years and before that in various places throughout Puget Sound. I’ve backpacked all over the North Cascades. Still my favorite mountain range during the oh-so-short summer hiking season. Took the Boalps climbing course back in the day and did a little climbing and some ski mountaineering. I hope to spend some time in your neck of the woods this summer. I live in Tucson now and love all the sunshine and great hiking right out the door.
Yash,
I owned DGP in 2010 and haven’t received a K-1 yet. But that may not mean anything because, by IRS rules, they have until April 15 to send it!
DG/Alex et al … if you guys could also post how much of your portfolio you are investing in a particular call that would help a lot.
1% … 10% … 50% … just to give us an idea of your confidence level.
Much appreciated …
“Both the dollar and the metals are up. One of them is lying.”
Kind of sad to keep hearing this, lack of understanding and implies that gold is purely or only driven by the US Dollar.
Bob, Poly, et al:
I know you have answered this question before, but what is the best reading for learning the ins and outs of options. I would like to learn all I can so that I can feel comfortable using them next C&D waves. Thank you.
Jennifer.
DG,
It’s probably no consolation at all, but I believe that you will make money shorting the D wave 🙂
Bob
Would it not be more advantageous to move them to June though? Because if the price action happens right before delivery like we are seeing now, you would miss the action because the options would expire(May) before that comex delivery date right?
Pima,
The North Cascades are amazing, I agree (I assume you mean Washington State).
Here are my favorite highlights:
–There is a lake in Washington (central part of state) called “Lost Lake.” Amazing. It sits at 4000 feet and is crystal clear mountain water.
–Driving along the windy mountain passes of Route 20 from Twisp to Concrete.
–The views and swimming in Diablo Lake, a cloudy fluorescent blue, glacier water.
–A natural sulphur hot spring at Mt. Baker. Hard to find non-commercial). Driving up a windy logging road, parking at a clearing and waling back 1/4 mile into the forest. I haven’t been there in many years so I don’t know the current state.
My dream adventure (which has been put off since I have a family and 3 young kids now) is to rent an RV or a off road vehicle and in the summertime do the drive from Calgary to Edmonton along the canadian rockies and continental divide through Banff and Jasper.
Oh, the good old days…..
Rodney
Plenty of online sources for options, depends on how you plan to use them.
Good book is “The rookies guide to options” Mark Wolfinger
DG,
Regarding your “Euro short/$ long” but Silver/Gold higher – perhaps its folks in Europe’s turn to bid the price of PMs higher? Up to now I think PMs have been somewhat flat versus the Euro?
If the Dow closes up 17.91 or more (that is, more than it was down yesterday) I will get a sell. Standard warning: the sells are not as reliable as the buys. You can take the buys o the bank. The sells to the Check-O-Mat Cash In Advance place. Burt with the SPX at resistance i will take a shot. We also should test the panic low which argues for a dip, at the least.
Silverman: That euro/USD call was just for a trade. Buying EUO at 17.75 yesterday means you can now put in a stop at cost (it’s now at 18.00) and guarantee a win or break even. I didn’t take the trade because I expect the dollar to get killed and it’s a little too much like waiting for the last minute on the Titanic for me.
Poly,
Very nice timing on those lottery tickets yesterday. Was it yesterday or the day before that. But nice timing.
Both days 🙂 Thanks and good timing to you too!
You knew with Gary’s timing cycle AND the bull flag and the all time high’s sitting right about us that a lock out day was in the cards.
Let’s hope past similar cycles will give a good 3 day lock out here, before the half cycle dip comes.
Haggerty, that is true, but I like to roll one month at a time. Besides, if there is no June deliver, no need to pump up the June Premium.
Jennifer, I am self taught, trial and error to find what works for me. I have been trading options for years.
Edwin, re: July 4th. Funny you should say that since my PFs peaked on July 4th (3rd) in ’08, powered by PM shares. It was a bit of a ride through November that year, I plan to be an interested spectator this year.
gold goes to 2000/1450= 1.38, silver goes to 50/36 = 1.38
don’t see silver will outperform here.
Anyone buying today?
I’m debating, having bought in the past couple of weeks. I don’t want to get greedy!
Poly, to echo ddn3f, I followed your lead (but got them at .21). Nice call so far!
thanks glen. it seems becuase its etn and not etf .. we may not get k-1
oa — gold may be 1600 when silver 50 at end of C.
jesse cafe has i h&s counting 132 points .. neckline 1440 .. so that makes 1572 …
Hot Rod,
Yeah, those are great spots. If you haven’t done so already, be sure to drive the gravel road to the Cascade Pass trailhead and take the hike to the pass and beyond to the upper reaches of Sahale Arm. Mind boggling scenery starting at the parking lot itself! Several times a day icefalls cut loose from the north wall of Johannesburg Mt causing a thunderous roar. Spectacular place.
Another place you can drive to that has great scenery is the Mt Baker highway all the way to the end (some years snow blocks the way till August).
Favorite backpacking places are the Glacier Peak Wilderness and Pasayten Wilderness. Alpine Lakes is not too shabby either. 🙂
Hot Rod, I am a former Pac NW resident as well. I have done the drive from Calgary to Jasper. Ice Fields Parkway, amazing. I found Lake Louise a bit crowded (it was summer) but I loved Jasper and also a little town on the BC side called Golden. Rented an awesome cabin backed up into the woods that was on the property of a recent immigrant German family. Then did some white water rafting. What a great time!
Let’s see I did all this when I was single and now my wife and I have a 10 day old…. well, I hope our little one is an adventurer!
Saw this on the blog earlier and saved it:
Dollar up, Stocks up, Gold up – Economy looks stronger, but inflation fears
Dollar up, Stocks up, Gold down – Economy looks stronger, no inflation problem
Dollar up, Stocks down, Gold up – Safe haven reaction to geopolitical problems
Dollar up, Stocks down, Gold down – Deflation trade
Dollar down, Stocks up, Gold up – Inflation trade and hyperinflation trade
Dollar down, Stocks up, Gold down – Geopolitical problem resolved, reverse safe haven trade
Dollar down, Stocks down, Gold up – Inflation raising corporate raw materials costs
Dollar down, Stocks down, Gold down – Stagflation
DG/Gary,
I am really puzzled by this going back and forth on this being able to short “D waves.” Although I am a new subscriber, I have been at this since early/mid 2000(forgive me as I no longer remember exact year) and I have only shorted this market BIG twice but both times were at extreme euphoria peaks(as Gary would term-C wave) and both those times i was extremely successful, to the point were I nearly made as much shorting as on the “C wave.”
You can feel when we are at such tops because the excitement can be felt absolutely everywhere(perhaps this
Comes from experience more than anything else), u then watch for a few days in a row where Gold/silver are by relatively large amounts(I mean silver being up 4/5+%) and the PMs are actually DOWN(yes this happens at euphoric tops) then a day comes with massive volume that has a intraday reversal and u place ur shorts. Maybe I’ve made this all sound simplistic but both times we’ve had this situations, I’ve made my big money shorting so yes it an be done.
oa,
yeah, I’d say 2000 gold at the end of this C wave is a long shot. 1600 is probably more likely, maybe not even. 1550 or 1575.
I would guess that if gold does go to 2000, silver will go well beyond 50.
Which is a good reminder for me… I will take a look at the current wave structure and see if I can come up with some reasonable targets. If I do, I’ll post them.
C-wave break-out has begun. Congrats Gary!. way to stay focused
pima – 1575-1600 is what comes by many calculations. Jesse American Cafe has that as I H&S target. Tony C OEW has that for major 3 wave top. (i know this is different than abcd wave but tony c wave count on gold silver are tracking good too with his major 3 top at end of C wave and major 4 down for D wave … by his count major 1 ended at 1008 or so there is lot of space to go down for major 4 (D wave).. as per him silver is going to go to 26 or so for his major 4 which will be gary D. That makes agq to 120s again.
yo SB!
SVM up 5.5 percent today. The only thing on my watch list that is up more is AG. Even NUGT, which is a TRIPLE weighted miners fund, only matches SVM’s performance.
So silver made a nice move up, but gold is going sideways. Hopefully the move up in silver will drag gold with it. Gold needs to break out to new highs. It’s so close.
thanks Yash.
I do look at Jesse’s blog occasionally, but haven’t looked at Tony C’s in a while.
Iron Nuts
These are what Gary has.
To make the recent bold calls he has done, especially with today’s “free” post, it takes huge kahonas of steel.
Silver closes yesterday at all time high and he says back up the truck.
Pima,
What is the id for Tony C’s blog. Thanks.
pima,
NUGT is 2X, not 3X…however it should do extremely well for the remainder of the C run with the expectations that the miners have to play major catch cup to the metal.
anybody worries about k-1 forms for agq etc? it seems k-1 forms sometimes shows much more gain for tax reporting purposes.
someone posted about recving K-1 for last year and he passed on to broker as it was his ira but can that person say what was written on K-1. like how much gain was shown?
Question about leverage. As the stock prices go up, the account value goes up as well. However the amount of leverage that you borrowed stays constant. This makes your initial percentage of leverage that you borrowed go down. Is it wise to increase leverage percentage to keep up with the original target (say 130%) as the prices go up?
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/
his gold/silver counts look good matching gary abcd waves. of course there won’t be one to one matching between abcd and his one major wave.
DG,
Great call on the USD/EURO trade!
For what ever its worth, Im looking forward to buying puts on the D wave, while going long the USD (Im short currently).
Maybe even short the Euro in the process.
I added AG this morning before it rocketed! Wish I had bought more.
That’s too funny Hot Rod!
Other bloggers I follow are aligning just as Gary was saying all along- sooner or later, investors will shift money into miner/gold/silver as they realize an inflation scare is coming upon us…..
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/03/hui-takes-out-overhead-gap.html
Poly,
Can you explain what you said about “Let’s hope past similar cycles will give a good 3 day lock out here, before the half cycle dip comes”
I have not heard Gary write much about half cycle dips.
Re: Silver versus Gold.
I think Gold will have it’s nice little run as per Gary’s plan.
But Silver, oh my. I really believe the Hedge funds and (Speculators) are onto Silver in a big way and are going to drive this into one amazing spectacular top (and crash) here.
Yes I know it’s already been spectacular for many of us since Aug-2010, but my bet is that “the boys” are going to run this baby into the stratosphere here.
As for D-Wave shorting, I agree with Gary in the sense that you probably do not one to risk any substantial capital. Catching it would be difficult too. But to not have a real crack at catching a monster move down, especially in Silver) would be a sin, IMO 🙂
COOLKEVS
Can I have a ‘hit’ of whatever you’re smoking? 🙂 Posting warnings on a breakout to new highs…with minors surging on increasing volume. Momentum traders licking their chops and drooling for the next two weeks?
2nd thought, I’ll pass on that ‘hit’, I wanna see clearly 🙂
DG wrote: “Heck, that rogue Alex got me into my first junior miner ever just last month. If even I can learn something there’s hope for everyone!”
DG , Finish your sentences please…” and it up 60% from where he got me in, and climbing..thank you ALEX!” 🙂
Miyagi-san,
I have been buying last week but did not have the balls to buy all during the bottom/nuclear scare period (AARRGG!)
I plan to buy more at close today (since it looks like a breakout) and then keep a little more to see what happens on 28th (options expiration) for a possible dip (?).
Thoughts?
Beksachi,
I bought a bunch of calls last week, I haven’t bought anything this week although I wish I had bought some last month!
Still, very satisfied. In fact, I have a lot of time on my hands now, waiting, just goffin’ off, vacuuming, doing dishes….
O.K. Alex: “And it’s up 60% from where he got me in, and climbing..thank you ALEX!” [BTW, I corrected your typo.]
“Still, very satisfied.”
Agreed- no complaints with my portfolio today!!!!
Bought 70 AG $17.50 Call Options this morning and backed up the truck on SLV April $40 Calls – 375 of them to be exact. Bob, I think we were buying at the same time.
ddn3f,
I’m not sure if it’s part of the “cycles lexicon”, but I’m sure I recall Gary mentioning a mid cycle pause (not really a drop).
I’ve noticed that once a new cycle confirms itself, around day 3-6, it often spikes into new high’s and rally’s hard for 3-4 days. That rally then pauses for a breather (around mid cycle) before going again. It’s not a “scientific observation”, just what I’ve noticed.
Alex: I have sent you two emails. Are you there?
SIL seems to be lagging… any thoughts as to why? Maybe still a buy opp??
Grat, you bought a few more than I did this morning on AG, but I stuck with May SLV calls. beautiful move.
All, Gratitudo is an old junior metals guy. He knows his stuff and does great research.
New York, SIL is up 4% today.
Lots of people coming out saying they bought OTM calls. I hope everyone is just using money they can lose (aka lottery ticket). Gary would be reprimanding everyone for using such crazy leverage.
GREAT blog today, I love the happy day blogs vs. the troubled waters blog.
DG , Thanks for that typo correction , I owe ya
New York …asked about unloading juniors like GPL-I’m just riding for now, and usually I’m able to get out close to the top if they continue the parabolic stage up (did ok with the oils)
But specifically, If they go up everyday , it gets too good to be true and you just wish you could buy more , then they’re up 8 out of 10 days and gap up today, yesterday, and the day before…large volume…I AM OUT!
There are other signs, but thats a REAL sell signal, sell at least 1/2, or just dump it.
CTM, yes I know… i’m just looking to get something that’s a little ‘cheap’ right now to add into this parabolic move.
Just trying to decide what’s my best bet as I’ve already got AGQ, SLW, GPL and SIL…
Does this board own all of the April SLV $40’s, ROFL!
AG is my largest junior mining holding. I sold some of my SVM last week and dumped it into AG to beef it up even more.
Collectively we probably have over 1000 calls, maybe 1200?
Yes ddn3f, 100% right. This money should be dispensable cash(if there is such a thing)used to “punt” on a big win.
We’re all responsible adults but don’t lose sight of the fact that this trade has a very big chance of expiring worthless and losing 100% of the trade. No shortcuts
Blogger DG said…
Alex: I have sent you two emails. Are you there?
Oh, Just got in from the Doctor , couldnt resist catching up on this blog (170 posts) good reading.
I will check my email, thx
Someone wished me well earlier, I will find your name and thank you and answer your question in a bit, Thanks
Alex,
Gotcha. So your reco is to unload GPL at this time? Or at least half and maybe ride the other half out?
If I dump any reco on what to move those funds into? I don’t want to chase AGQ at this point and thought maybe to just go into SIL?
I just unloaded USSIF today for a small profit as it was feeling to risky.
ddn3f, I only bought 15 contracts.
Hi Pima,
That was Rainier from the top of Crystal Mtn. a few weeks back on a rare sunny day. We were hiking up the King peak in the south back country. As you can tell, perfect visibility – Adams, St. Helens, and the Olympics were all out as well.
The Pacific NW is certainly a special place if you can tolerate the rainy winters and short summers!
We have some Columbia river property on the east side of the mountains near Chelan to get out of the rain every now and then. Otherwise Arizona sounds mighty tempting!
Mike
Poly,
I have noticed that regular spike after 3-6 days also. I was just looking at it yesterday when I was trying to reconstruct Gary’s cycles on my own chart. Pretty cool for what to expect in the next couple of trading days.
@Bob in Hawaii,
Could you post the last half dozen silver contract delivery dates as well as the next several ?
I’d like to look at those dates as I bought some trading shares near the last cycle low.
TIA
NO New York
Not at this tiome!!!
If you see what I wrote happening, NOT NOW 🙂
I have:
SLW, SLV, ABX, GLD, GPL.
Anything small someone can think of, samll play, AUY maybe?
Alex,
O-K 🙂
I see, can you elaborate on those sell signs for a noob?
Silver producer AUMN, previously known as Apex Silver for any greybeards, is catching a nice bid today, although a long ways from its highs of late last year….plenty of room to run here.
New York: If I may…If you are pretty new to this you should not be trading junior miners. Please listen to Gary’s advice and you will do very, very well. He has specifically suggested NOT buying junior miners. Not only is there a fair chance you will get hurt, but whatever you lose is money that could have increased in value in AGQ, SIL, or SLW. We tend to learn from losses, though, so feel free, but if you can stay disciplined and stick with Gary’s advice you will make more than you ever thought you would. That should be enough.
You should have told me about AUMN yesterday, up 19.19% today!
anyone want to comment on K-1 and its impact on taxes? my only question was do they report more gain/interest on k-1 form than we would have made it by actual trading.
DG,
Thanks, and I am following his advice. Just dabbling with a very small percentage in miners… I like to learn ‘hands on’ 🙂
For those with mining shares, TZ has repeatedly said that silver will outperform mining shares at the end of C waves.
He usually checks these things carefully, so I wouldn’t bet against it until you check it yourself.
Nix the AUY for me, something wrong there, it’s up less than a dime with every other miner I follow up.
HUI up to 570, just like that. Now you get a feel for how it could easily find itself up to 800 in the space of 6-8 weeks.
NY: Great. Yes, learning hands on is good, so long as you don’t lose a hand!
Blogger YesLetsDiscuss said…
ALEX, hope your trip to the doc was fine.
What is this “too hot for the blog” pick you mentioned this morning? I am interested. You can add a ton of discalimers around it while posting. But do post.
Thx..it was spinal injections , glad thats done with 🙂
There was a ‘clue’ I put in my post when I said , “Should Have Zip’ to it 🙂 ” posted yesterday…
Stock is shz (should have zip)
-This stock Quadrupled in 2 days last October -$1 to $4, correction formed a GORGEOUS cup/handle last Oct to Dec. it broke out with volume, I bought it. I almost crapped my pants as it went from $4 to almost $10 in 3 days.
DISCLAIMER -THIS IS WHY I DIDNT POST ON HERE..its too tempting, but I got in at $4 yesterday with its Surge in volume at the open.THIS CAN FALL AS FAST AS IT GOES UP…warning warning , danger danger!!
I just bought 1/2 my plan for SDS when the SPX hit 1299. I figured I am going to get the sell at the end of the day anyway, whereupon I will add. I am guessing we are more likely to fade from here than go up from here, and I will get the sell regardless…unless we close down 😉
MR.MYAGI
May I recommend UXG , about to break out today on sweet volume, should run from here.
I agree with AUMN too, its up big, but its off the bottom, so could still run big.
Thanks Alex, I’m looking into it now. Nice move up.
MRMIYAGI
Spelled UR name wrong, sorry
I hate to be the GPL guy, but today it is climbing on higher volume out of a nice consolidation,the MACD is turning up , and I have a price projection of $7 minimum if it passes its former high ($5 area) o convincingly. If it stalls there, it just may take a breather and form a handle, but This has been my best baby!
Bob,
Are you still hanging on to your GORO positions? It’s the only thing lagging in my portfolio right now – wondering what to do with it…thx!
Thanks for the heads-up Alex.
Hopefully the spinal injections help with your bowel condition – that sounds dreadful!
New York, I notices PHYS was a huge laggard today. Don’t know much about it, but it certainly didn’t pop.
Alex,
Don’t worry about the name…
I have a couple of thousand GPL shares bought in under 4$, I was thinking of adding, my thought are alnog the same line as yours.
New York wrote..can you elaborate on those sell signs for a noob?
I will, and I’ll include charts when we get there weeks/months from now.
Right now I think Gary and his cycle analysis is going to be a GREAT indicator to follow(the dollar low). There will be many signals that many of us will post as we see them, then its just a matter of how you view it..greed vs self control 🙂
I will say this, if you see, AFTER a long run up in a stock… a huge gap up at the open, and then the stock sells off and closes down at the end of the day-after that long nice run…should be sold. It is an ‘exhaustion’ gap…all buyers are in , DONT wait till you see the rest of the sellers hit the exits!
one would have to be nuts to consider being short the dollar at this level.
with G7 intervening with the Yen..coupled with renewed “distain” for the EUR – now at extremes (portugal bailout will contribute to massive EUR weakness – putting more upward pressure on USD.)
yes it has everything to do with fundamentals…throw your oscillators out the door.
USD is gonna pop hard here…looong before we see it go any lower.
Upswing looks to have already started against several other currencies.
Careful careful here….she’s goin up before goin down – no question about it.
Blammo
I Laughed out loud…good one 🙂
the only thing I have close to a bowel condition is that that an aXX named Blammo just crapped all over me unjustifiably 😉
Alex/DG: my problem is that I don’t have a solid exit strategy
I’m in SLW, SVM, EXK, CDE and GPL
Have sold these previously on parabolic moves on high volume, sometimes it worked and I caught a short term top, sometimes I just sat there out of my positions and watching these rally another 20%
My current plan is to just follow Gary’s waves but maybe miners will top differently…and I certainly don’t want to overstay the party as corrections are very aggressive in the miners
So what should I do? Scale out in bit by bit, sell into strength or sell weakness? Try to pick a top watching very high volume exhaustion type moves?
Your advice is much appreciated, thanks
New to this board, but love all the feedback.
I have a question for some of the more experienced traders. I started my core positions back in early March and have been building them during pullbacks. I know Gary gave us some great entry points along the way, but being new to his website, I did not allocate as much as I wanted to because I needed some confirmation that his analysis was right. Well, I’m sold…and unfortunately about 40% uninvested and in cash. Anyways, my question is, at this point, would you still wait for any pullbacks to allocate more capital or do you think we are unlikely to see anymore “easy” entry points like last week? It’s just a bit uncomfortable doubling down on positions as they run away from you.
Appreciate any thoughts
Alex, just saw that you replied to new york while I was typing my message, d’oh 🙂
PST,
Just get in and hold. If you read Gary’s reports, you will have to learn to buy into strength or else you will be left behind.
PST,
Also, do what feels comfortable to you in terms of dollar amount. I believe that the pullbacks will be small and few from now to the top.
There will not be an equities plunge. In fact, equities will likely continue higher in the next few years. Laszlo Birinyi just went on air to say we still have 60% more to go by 2013, which is consistent with what I’ve been saying…that the equities market is still in a secular bull, as opposed to a cyclical bull. A cyclical bull would have the market plunged by now.
We’re actually testing and retesting that Dow 12,000 before we look down at it and say,”Sayonara, baby!”
Not sure how that would affect precious metals longer term, but I do have my opinions on that. Enjoy the PM rally while it lasts. I see another PM parabolic 5-7 days run just like early November 2010.
Silver is raging at the end of the day here and remember the dollar was up.
PST,
My 2 cents is, don’t get cute. Just put the rest of your capital to work (however much you feel comfortable risking, that is) and call it a day.
It’s more dangerous at this point to still be sitting on the sidelines waiting for that nice pullback.
Wes, here is the COMEX delivery months
Trading in COMEX Division silver future contracts is conducted for delivery during the current calendar month, any January, March, May, and September thereafter falling within a 23-month period and any July and December falling within a 60-month period, beginning with the current month.
Danyo, GORO is a core position I am building long term (holding through D wave long term) I intend to hold AG, RVMID and SOHAF, as well.
I will dump all else.
OLLIE
I do that all the time! hehe
My ‘thoughts’ are that Garys Cycles will be great timing tools (again,the dollar low) BUT- I want to see if the miners start really ‘LEADING” at the very end/last cycle. If they do, the dollar low/Gold top could be days after the bigboys start unloading miners.
DG
you getting a signal at days end here??thx
PST,
IMO, I would NOT wait, get invested to your comfort level. We’re at the point that if it goes to script, there will be no looking back.
Thanks ddn3f / MrMiyagi.
I’m trying to undo years of being a deep value investor and buying into strength and having no diversification isn’t an easy adjustment for me.
Having always been on the analysis side, this trading thing is much harder than I gave it credit.
Greatly appreciated and thanks for letting us all be a part of this ride.
Alex,
I’m seeing SHZ at 4.93.. not 10?
My god – what a day for the miners.
PST,
Some diversification is very tried and true, and should always be employed. Not overdiversification, though.
Just when people decide not to diversify and put all their money into one risky asset class basket, you know what usually will happen.
Good luck.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sandy101,
Tony C is here:
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/
I’ve heard it said to watch UNP if you want to see what the market will do. (SPX)
Sell signal imminent!
@ecemery
I’m not directly involved in the dollar trade but I can point out some flaws in your fundamental argument.
1. When did we know the G7 would support the Yen ? Answer, last week, and smart folks figured it out earlier.
2.When did we know about Portugal and the euro, etc ? Same answer.
And how has the dollar responded to these “fundamentals” ?
By going down.
Be careful.
Ollie: Exits a difficult because trading is asymmetrical. You can choose when and what to buy, but selling pressure is always present once you have a position. With all due obeisance, deference, and groveling to Alex, a gap reversal doesn’t necessarily mean a top. If the run is nuts enough you can get several before the final top. Gary will sell on the way up. When you find yourself thinking “I can’t believe this! I really can’t!” it’s time to sell something. Bernard Baruch (an old-time billionaire) was asked how he made all his money. He said, “I always sell too soon.” This board will absolutely light up when it’s time to sell. Don’t worry, we’re all in the same boat. As soon as you find yourself thinking, “I know they are all getting out but I’m going to hang tough a little” slap yourself in the face and sell. Good luck to us all!
I would say that was a “mildly” profitable day…….
Hey Gary – a major shout out to you on my blog
http://slopeofhope.com/2011/03/precious-metals-rocket-ship.html
Incidentally, if you want to change to my comments system, let me know; happy to let you have it for free.
DG, are you referring to your SDS trade?
NY
This is the second time I am in SHZ at $4.
I was talking about the 1st time I got into SHZ in December. See (if you know a cup/handle pattern) formed oct to dec…then I bought near $4, and it took off.
I am back in at $4 in March, so that shows you , if you buy and never sell, you can give it all back. So these P.M. stocks look GREAT now, but we will yell sell at the top. Dont forget this (SHZ)Chart.
DG, Ollie, all,
Talking about exit strategies, this is something weighing on my mind as I look at my current portfolio (looks ***stunning****) but bad memories of the 2000 tech boom still linger……
Check this graph out- 1980s, when silver went up 50% in 2 weeks, and then down 50% in 2 DAYs….
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/03/up-50-in-18-days-and-down-50-in-two-days-possible/
I am hoping to count on this forum and Gary’s reports to get out in time but again, the “50% down in 2 DAYs” – man we will need to be numble….
Indeed, good luck to us all!
Yeah, I bought 3000 SDS at 21,87. Let’s see what happens. Peanuts compared to my silver stuff, but I expect it to be a nice trade.
DG, Thx, also your book arrived today
and good timing perhaps.
gary can speak but that 19080 stuff is not going to happen this year. that is at end of this bull run 2018 or so.
Pima,
Thanks.
Alex,
Ah I see. So it popped to 10 and you dumped nice 🙂
I see what you mean – getting out is the key to *real* gains of course.
So now SHZ you are back in… i’m listening and learning I hope to hear you scream 😉
traderlady: The book will help you not get too greedy at the top 😉
“The book will help you not get too greedy at the top ;-)”
Keep adding AGQ DG and you will have to read your own book again 🙂 (Kidding)
DG/POLY, I have read here to put stops where Gary gets out. Maybe best to sell half then. We shall see after my read and the BIG event. lol
Poly: Closer to the truth than you think. It really has taken me a lifetime to buy into panics, sell into euphoria, and enjoy taking small losses. I bought a lot of low-rated credit garbage (CDO ETFs and such) into the panic in ’09 and I myself was ready to puke, and I had just bought ’em! I am impressed with how totally solid Gary is with this.
Thanks, Bob
Is it always the last day of the month ?
I break for parabolas.
Bekashi,
The 80’s Silver collapse really wasn’t a long term secular bull market. You notice it went from $8 to $50 in 5 months.
I like Kimble, sometimes he goes “fishing for chart setups” a little to often, IMO.
As for Silver, I agree with him (bias sure), just feels like Silver is taking a no prisoners attitude with an eye at printing an ALL TIME HIGH on this C run, as crazy as that looks on chart.
DG,
I am tempted to follow you on SDS…sorry I missed the discussion, but what is the name of your book?
DG said…
With all due obeisance, deference, and groveling to Alex, a gap reversal doesn’t necessarily mean a top.
You are correct , I was actually in REE in Dec and you can clearly see that there was a hug gap/reversal at $12 and $13 , and I didnt sell then. And I imagine other circumstances would lend to ‘holding’ and not ‘sell’there…
But , at the end of a LONG run, if I see 8 straight days up , gap gap and then large Gap open, close down…I AM OUT. 🙂
Thats more like what I was talking about…pertaining to this C-wave run. At least 1/2 my position.
Sophia: Freedom from Stress–Amazon has it. You can see what we do at http://www.clarityseminars.com
DG,
New to this board, so I apologize if you’ve explained in the past, but can you explain how your model works. What factors led you to your sell signal?
Thinking about joining you on the SDS trade so just want to know more. Thanks
Thanks DG! Will check your website and also indulge myself on Amazon… do they sell it in the UK yet?
Fatguy: I can’t share my screens because I am in the middle of starting a hedge fund based on them and my partners would be very unhappy! stockcharts.com lets you program your own screens and I have input the data I use. There are two types of trades I post here: Buys and sell on the general market and individual ETF sector buys and sells. The general market buys are fantastic. The other stuff is very good, but not as good. The long dollar/short euro call yesterday, for example, was a specific ETF call, as was the short oil, long Japan, short copper, etc. all of which worked. I had a loser in UNG a month ago.
By the way, SDS rallying in the aftermarket as the SPX fades.
Thanks DG, I am mentally preparing myself to leave some money at the table as we’re getting close to the end of the c-wave…as they say missed money is better than lost money!
Yash,
I’m not positive but I think the gains shown on the K-1 are the same as in your 1099. Any additional tax is somehow based on the profitability of the limited partnership itself – but I have no idea why AGQ falls into this category. In the past I’ve gotten these for energy related companies like Suburban Propane or Kinder Morgan where this made more sense.
ALEX-
Oh my, SHZ what a chart. That sucker looks like a widow maker, but I may just add a few! Is that a real company or one of the phoney baloney China scam tickers I keep hearing about on Zero Hedge?
I added a small amount of MGN today. Another one that like to give you a nice 10-20% pop out of no where one day. Looks to be prime for a move.
HEY
I just got a sell signal on SDS!!!
Kidding 🙂
Great blog lately Gary…like 800+ posts on the yesterday one. Bodes well for your publicity. I looked at the ‘slope..’ article, some funny posts below about you bending steel w/your bare hands 🙂
Thanks 4 a classy, intelligent blog..should be an easy report 2nite.
I am out 4 the night.
Mr Miyagi??? buy? 🙂
This dolar rally is rubbing me the wrong way… hopefully another 35 ticks is all that it can muster, if that.
Really – Silver will come down to about 22-24 before it goes to upper $40ish. My main reason:
1) EU is damaged,
2) JPM need to unload their massive short position.
Hi everyone,
just checking in..
lot of good posts today..
DG,
thank you for the sell signal..I didn’t take it though
Alex,
I’m sure that it was me that scared you away from posting the SHZ buy signal yesterday haha along with the chart…i didn’t mean to…Please post it from here on…the decision/responsibility will be mine to take the trade 🙂
catbird,
thank for that tip on cooking eggs in the microwave..will give it a try this weekend
JAYHAWK
I know, your aa chart guy. You see what I saw in Oct , and now its simply a volume surge, downtrend breaking lottery ticket, I guess =haha
Its like, I’ve been here, done that , LOVED IT. and as for when I got in, its already up large.
I read about them, and their disclaimer letter that they’re NOT a rare earth miner, b ut they mine other minerals, and some are ‘rare’.
Enter at own risk, some animals bite. this one just happened to follow through on the chart pattern perfectly in dec 🙂
Alex, all kidding aside, just wondering how you do your scans? Volume? 52 week highs?
Bought a little starter position of UXG – ramped right into the close on good volume. I can add to this either way (up or down), but I do expect it to come back to $8 or so before going higher.
Thanks silverman .. i used to do only miners till now before I got into agq at 118 (after 116 low) .. Yes additional tax is basically profit made by partnership company and I have no idea why agq would or would not do profit. There are some examples on net those shows such phony profit for USO UNG DBA etc commodity etf where even if there is actually tading loss, K-1 showed gain so need to pay tax. the same artcile says it can happen to gld slv iau but dose not mention agq ugl.
I think you’re right Abdullah, quick everybody, sell!!!
Don’t know Sophia. You guys speak English there?
NIKEBOY
Nope , not you ..I just noticed that on the blog posts in general there were MANY new names I never heard post before, so I was just worried that maybe they would feel that we only post ‘buy’ recommendations, so they jump in.
Gotta admit…looking at SHZ chart, it should only be mentioned where buy orders are automatically fwded to a page that flashes..”ARE YOU KIDDING” when you try to buy it.
goodnight all, my back is killing me, gotta get off this thing 🙂
3) China holds estimated $3 TRILLION – and they are very pissed.
I am by no means calling for TOP on either silver and gold. I know they will go much higher, but the forces out there will sell them very hard.
I think there will be much better entry.
Poly,
Lol.
Alex, sorry you have back issues!!
Abdullah, I’m pretty sure those are reasons to buy precious metals.
O.K. One more thing, then I leave 🙂
NY,
I didnt sell it at $10…I sold it above $8 though.
Blammo,
You wouldnt believe me if I told you, seriously. I’m mental 🙂
My brokers report says a spike to1477 sell and buy back at 1412
Wish they were right sometimes
Wow, great day:):)I will be looking to short gold to hedge my long term holdings as this C wave unfolds and a sell will be a SELL at that point. The system I use seems to be in tune with some major black boxes especially at C wave tops.I appreciate all your hard work Gary, and Pima’s ability to cut through all the confusion I seem to create with my posts.
silverman .. i read agq 2009 annual report .. not sure i stil understand but it shows $21 net gain per share for year 2009. so depending how many share one has owned in 2009 and how much period, this gain will be shown on k-1 is my understading. so in simple case if you own 1 share for entire period of 2009 then $21 is shown in k-1 apart from actual gain from trading is my guess.
awww, TRADERLADY , that was nice-thank you.
2days treatment should help the facilitate the healing a lot.
I am now going to shut this p.c. off and not read anymore, or I’ll be back again!! Peace out!!
Trader lady
Is that siesta? =)
Jeff, YES! Memories, huh?
Poly,
For me, Monday was slightly bigger than today. But most of Monday’s advance happened on a gap, while today was up all day and seemed larger.
The OTM (currently ITM) options I purchased last week on AGQ are up over 90% already. These are for sure the way to play the D wave.
The thing about the options for the D wave is, we will know the approximate sell price before we purchase them. It should be the 200 dma plus or minus 10%.
In addition, Gary will probably be able to guess closely at the time interval involved for the D wave, thereby determining which month to buy.
So, if you know when to buy, how much to buy, the month to buy and the strike prices, most of the iffy parts of buying options are eliminated.
You know your maximum loss going in.
Seems way simpler than shorting.
Something has to be wrong, here :).
No DG, we speak Anglais… 🙂
Found it anyway, buying it now…
Yash,
The point you make about the difference between now and 1980 on silver is a great insight.
I agree completely.
i did now own agq in 2010 so i don’t have k-1 but i went through monthly statements of agq for year 2010 (annual report for 2010 is not available still) .. it is shown loss in jan feb may months and profit in most other months for agq .. profit means its net gain to be reported on k-1. that means if shares are owned on net gain months its going to add to taxable income on k-1 form. i don’t know how long gary is using agq .. its really available in 2009 and 2010 as full year and not sure how k-1 were reported for him. becuase i assume he held agq only in profitable months that means k-1 form will also show only gain. simple calculation – if 1 share earned 100 dollar trading profit then 15% tax is 15 dollars. If k-1 reported additional 40 dollar gain then 15% of 140 is 21 dollars. so instade of paying 15 dollars tax you end up paying 21 dollar tax.
I think ETNs are not subject to K-1.
read first sentence – I did not …
as far ETN goes i hope everyone knows risk that if company issuing etn goes bankrupt entire ent can go worthless.
Pima/Hot Rod,
5k is the IRA limit (for all combinations of IRAs), 6k if you are 50+ years old.
If possible, fund Roth IRA first — no taxes on distribution, a huge advantage after following Gary’s cycles for a few years. Next, self directed IRA (tax deductible) but this isn’t possible if your work *offers* a 401k. Next, after tax Trad IRA. All your IRAs can be in PM shares. Last, and least, is your company’s 401k UNLESS they match 100% of what you put in. My wife’s co matches 25% and that isn’t worth the currency debasement risk in my view.
You’re welcome, Veronica. But I think it’s just that I’m just persistent. (and it annoys me when I see folks not getting it 🙂 I also think we have a bunch of new subs here who probably missed your original posts.
Good point that your sell signal near the top of this C wave will actually mean “sell”! Your system sounds pretty cool, but using it in the context of Gary’s cycle analysis is brilliant! Glad you’re here with us.
Ben,
Great post, very good points re IRA’s and 401k’s.
Note that most brokers (all brokers?) let you set up a trading account as an IRA. I have one with TOS and most of my trading is done in that account.
The main diff is that a trading account that is an IRA does not allow margin, so you cannot short stocks. However, you can buy options, both calls and puts, and with all the inverse etf’s out there you can effectively short sectors or entire indexes.
Note that not all brokers let an IRA trade options. TOS does, but I believe firstrade does not. So you would want to check into that before opening the IRA with whatever broker you want to use.
Gary,
We use the test posts because we (and I’ve asked on the board for an alternative) do not know how to get every post emailed to us. So if you post but then preview the post and then edit you can check the box which allows follow-up comments to be emailed to you (actually all comments are emailed. Do you know of another way to accomplish this? I am not always around but do have my iPhone with me so I can follow the discussion anywhere more easily (very hard to do it on the phone’s browser).
I am confused how “JPM need to unload their massive short position” can make the market go down. You unload a short by buying. This is what happens in blow out tops. People get blown out of their short positions which fuels the market even higher.
Need Feedback!
Gary suggested I ask the current subscribers about his subscription service;
Small time investor here, with under $20,000 workable & heavily invested in Oil, Nat Gas & Energy, with holdings in Gold, Silver & Miners. Not very diversified.
Would Gary’s service be beneficial to me at this time, especially with the specials he is offering?
Thanks DG. I understand completely that you can’t disclose the specifics. I do appreciate your buy/sell posts though.
Good luck getting the HF off the ground.
WES,
Good points and I have some idea’s too, but I think you’re just about spot on. 200DMA looks great and you know the AGQ being a leveraged ETF is going to get DESTROYED in a d-wave drop.
Got to run for now, will post some ideas later.
ALEX, thanks…that SHZ sure is hot. Wonder if some of the pump and dumpsters use it. 3 (or 4) big up days with gap ups seems to be the norm. It has already had 2. I will skip this one for now.
Hope your back feels better soon.
Ben and others, be careful there…for the IRAs, the TOTAL limit (Roth + Traditional) is 5k if under 50. 6k if over.
Gary’s insights are priceless. He is the real deal…
SD Jack
Gary’s cycle analysis is truly amazing. He called the recent bottom of GLD and was off by 5 cents.
San Diego Jack, without a doubt, it will help you! Go ahead and subscribe, then read up on the past few weeks worth of posts. You will realize you’ve made the right decision fairly quickly.
San Diego Jack: Yes, toy should subscribe. You can do three months or whatever will take us into June, to get started. But you need to do it right away as this train has already pulled out of the station. There will probably be one more dip before we finish so you need to be mentally ready for it and not “wait for a little more decline” when gary says to pull the trigger. Subscribe, read the subscriber section thoroughly, and get mentally ready. Diversification is for when you don;t know what’s going on. If you find a good sector why invest in others?
DG, your book looks good. Any ideas if it will be available on Kindle soon? It would be great if you can convince someone!
SD Jack,
Sign up. Not everyone on the blog has super amounts of money. You have to start somewhere small. Also just sign up for the general investment advice that Gary gives. It will improve your investing/trading. All this in addition to Gary’s cycle work that everyone raves about.
San Diego Jack: I have made more money following Gary in the last 6-9 months than what I made in my lifetime. He is truly amazing.
Joining will probably be one of the best decisions of your life. Good luck.
Diamond studded, platinum plated, balls of steel.
That’s what Gary has after tonight’s report.
Holy smokes.
DG, I was wondering when I would know to sell… priceless:
Bernard Baruch (an old-time billionaire) was asked how he made all his money. He said, “I always sell too soon.” This board will absolutely light up when it’s time to sell. Don’t worry, we’re all in the same boat. As soon as you find yourself thinking, “I know they are all getting out but I’m going to hang tough a little” slap yourself in the face and sell. Good luck to us all!
DG,
Silver sentiment didn’t drop as much as I anticipated last week. Now about 76% positive.
Who did they ask ? People on this blog ?
YesLD: My publisher has hurled themselves at the Kindle process and it’s lost in the bureaucracy somewhere. Sorry! Not yet.
Thanks for your responses.
Will be joining up and look forward to profiting along with you.
Cute Wes. I suspect we will see a huge number of silver bulls by the time we blow out, so we need to go from what is currently high to nuts. Gold sentiment is very muted now and that too will probably go much higher before we are through. It’s gonna be tough to figure out when to sell. I am mentally preparing now to leave some on the table. It’s going to feel like selling my kids when the time comes (not that I have kids…)
sd jack
i got my mom in agq with 15000 and she got in late .. with the agq the easy target is 300, now about 217. dont look for a entry just buy it now. all you will be doing is chaseing . she knows about silver but never traded it before
it will go to 350+
gary will make the call to get out
and we all want to get out before the d wave
San Diego Jack, YES! Sell your oils and gas and get into this service immediately and invested in GOLD and Silver. You can always get back into Gas and oils when they are back on the rise.
Yash, I have received these K-1’s many times in the past. Have some now; UNG, DBA etc. They are nothing to worry about in my experience to date. They are primarily for the “partnership” that manages the ETF’s. I have never had a negative tax consequence.
AGQ at $350+ seems very high
I am praying that the pullback is after March 28/29th, I have 20k pulling out of mutual funds and can put more into the metals. It’s killing me I can’t get it out now. Although tempted to tell them go ahead penalize me, I can take it. What do you think? If I sell tomorrow, I can get back in Friday or should take my chances with pullback coming after April 29th? Need some nudging here…hmmmm
Veronica, Please don’t let any confusion I may have had stop you from posting. If I have any questions from now on, I will try to get poly to clarify for me.
Cheers
i think we’re all using the same system, i have a sell on the spx too. lol
i see this as a short term sell though and a bounce out at march 31
for those day trading silver spot, 39 the number to collect.
at ease … I had my daughter in a fund and paid a 3% penalty to get her out … she made it back in 2 days.
DG & Veronica,
Been meaning to say today that I’d like to see you both keep posting your signals.
DG,
I probably won’t short the D wave as much as you but I will put a little play money on the table in the form of puts, most likely. So I’m particularly interested to see how you go about shorting.
Catbird: Happy to keep posting them. And I am not sure i will short the D wave (though i probably will). I just want to keep the door open as to me it is a completely viable thing to do. You make money a lot faster in declines, as they are much faster and sharper, as we have seen! (O.K. maybe not that much faster than this lovely final C wave, but you get the idea…)
Avann, that inches me closer to a decision. I have a total of 40k in 3 funds, 10k in Canada and another 10k Natural Rescources and 20k in the gold fund. I was going to leave the Gold in there, but it’s not doing as well as all the other investments. If I take out before March 28, the penalty will be “can’t get back in” because I will have violated the taking out before 30 days rule on two of the funds. So just wondering how much I care to get back into these funds. I can hold out on the Gold one until March 28, but the other two are doing nothing. Kills me to have 20k just sitting there. I may take that hit, just needed some common sense drilled in me with some factors, the fine isn’t that much, as you said, its the ability to get back in later. So just weighing how much I will need to get back into those funds down the line. Thanks for your response. I wish I had just gone ahead and done it last week when I was worrying about it.
DG, I would also like to take a stab at shorting, to learn how it’s done also. I wouldn’t wager much as I just want to see it in motion.
my brother has 5k to throw into the market. any thoughts for the best return for the next month before d wave? i’m thinking hzu.to, gpr.to or slw.to thoughts?
For all those singing Gary’s praises… I’m 51, have been investing since college, bought MSFT the day AFTER the crash in ’87, etc. His is the first newsletter I’ve ever subscribed to. I read his blog post near Aug 1st and was inspired to hit the gas with PMs and had an even better year than otherwise. Absolutely worth every penny. Help in getting out of the D-wave path will be … priceless!
n1tro … with only 5K I would be leaning towards HZU … the others may outperform but they may not … if you believe in the G-train YOU KNOW HZU will be on the same track.
Ben, Gary’s website is the only one worth it’s weight in Gold. Can’t even calculate that huge amount.
I have a couple of questions today:
1) GLD showing up on SOS today at -51.17, anything to be concerned about?
2) I’ve been reading up about some other blogs and people are saying SLV is a scam and it holds no physical silver (I know we’re not invested in it) and comex defaulting. Is this just noise and utter nonsense?
Brian,
Regarding K-1’s, with all these shares of AGQ being held, is it a few hundred dollars or thousands? A little nervous about the K-1 talk.
And only in the IRA’s?
Thanks
I am new to options. My account is just now able to trade options, so I have not yet made the SLW options trade that Gary made on Friday.
Is it too late to make this trade?
And which do I choose: “buy to open/close”, “sell to open close.”
This comment has been removed by the author.
This US dollar rally appears corrective, looking at the charts of all the major currency pairs. My guess is that some dollar shorts are covering their positions ahead of the European summit. Sentiment doesn’t support a trend reversal here.
Avann, I can’t pull up a symbol in Fidelity or Trade Station with HZU. What is it?
Intern, K-1’s are about the business end. Not the trading of the shares. As a unit holder it will show how many units you owned, but since you did not profit from the management fees, you will not show partnership profit or loss.
hzu is like agq but for canadians. 😉
Hey guys,
Can someone who is familiar with warrants please help me out?
If a warrant has met the strike price does the warrant increase on a dollar for dollar basis with its stock – or close to it? So if the stock increases by $1 the warrant increases by $1 as well.
i like SLW.
Brian,
So just a formality/technicality?
Thanks, whew….
brian ..thanks .. i never seen k-1 yet as last year i had only dgp and gld .. it seems dgp don’t issue k-1 and i am not sure about gld .. this year its agq .. i still learning what to report from k-1 on personal tax returns so i have no idea .. there are some articles that say there could be negative consequences on tax. e.g. actual trading profit x dollars but k-1 showed y dollars where y is far greater than x so need to show y in personal income tax return insteade of x which is actual trading profit.
http://moneymorning.com/2009/11/18/taxes-gold-investment/
read bullet point examples in this article. I was refering to this.
Randall-
I’d counsel you not to trade any vehicle you don’t fully understand, regardless of what Gary does.
In this case, you appear to be new to options – nothing wrong with that, but you should take a deep breath and learn about options before you step into the arena.
Not trying to dim your enthusiasm, but knowledge and discipline are critical to every investment vehicle, especially derivatives.
Nitro,
If $50 silver is realized, HZU will increase by roughly 70% from today’s price.
Many Thanks to at ease and TJ. and I’ll be taking it easy on the options until and as I learn more.
Yash,
I don’t think that article is correct. We pay taxes on a cash basis.
If you don’t get the money, you don’t owe the taxes is my understanding.
If you company issues you a note in lieu of wages, you owe nothing until they pay the note.
Yash, I will be dealing with these issues this weekend, and will report back here what I found.
Hey everyone
Have a question
I recieved a K1 thing in the mail for AGQ today. Last year I only had AGQ in a traditional IRA and as far as I thought nothing in that account needs to be looked at at tax time, is that correct? This year I will hold it in a regular account too so anything I need to know
TIA
Would someone please point to the article discussing the K-1s for AGQ. Thanks in advance
Haggerty,
Without the specific numbers of course, what did the AGQ K-1 show?
Brian,
Let us all know what you find out about the K-1 form and AGQ. That is useful since always everyone is in AGQ
Thanks, Brian. Yes please let us know what you find out about the K-1 stuff.
Ryan: The scam articles are a waste of time. just skip them. Hell, you could get hit by a bus tomorrow, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
As for the SoS, Gary says it only matters for SPY. I am not so sure and I don’t believe he’s really studied it. Regardless one day of -50mm is meaningless.
Today, one of my smaller IRA accounts is officially double what it was when I first signed on with Gary in early September 10. No fancy stuff, just SLV, SIL, and SLW.
Couldn’t have done it without Gary’s help, and the help of everyone on the board.
Thank you.
Elaine
After now looking at it I bought a little at the end of the year so it’s really nothing, but they sent this out kind of late, by law shouldn’t this be sent out before the end of January
k1 topic
my family and i had a cell phone licence investment. started with 25000 until it went to zero. we got 2 k-1 tax forms . one year it was 800 the next was 500 dollars. we lost 25000 and still had to pay taxes. total bs and so well, thats my story. dont know what else to tell you. we will be paying enough taxe on the money we will make, but they want more
wes – i am preety sure you don’t deal with these etf like any other equity etf .. so even if you don’t make any cash profit you may get k-1 form with gain or loss. this is becuase artnerships that are owners of these etfs do not pay any tax so individuals who own then need to pay taxes collectively. these parnerships makes regular profit or loss with their regular transactionsl business like buying silver, selling silver, buying future contracts etc etc and then they have expences. so that determines gain or loss for these partnership companies.
Jeff already mentioned how he has to pay taxes on 800 and 500 even if he made cash loss of 25000.
Hagg – you do’t have to worry if its owned only in retirement accounts. but in regular accounts you will have to worry next year.
I am going to switch these in retirement accounts for next A wave. I have commission fee trading account (30 trades per month) so I was buing selling them in regular acocunt instade of fidelity retirement account. but guess need to pay fidelity brokerage to avoid this k-1 surprises.
Thanks DG. Still have 8% of dry powder left. Now to decide when and where to add it. Maybe I’ll follow you on one of your buy signals. Just make sure it isn’t UNG lol.
So the trick on metals is don’t hold them for longer than a year. Which just has now motivated me to sell everything at the top of this C wave. I bought into GLD last year, but did not receive a K1, which means I didn’t hold it for a year and If I remember correctly I bought in April/May timeframe into Mutual fund, no stock until the fall past year, so should be ok, all in retirement accounts.
Elaine, nice to double your money in less than a year, good going.
wes – to explain little differently for your cash argumenet .. these etf are like we are all partners of agq when you have it in your account. so as partner you need to share gain or loss. Now mistery question to me is what happens to this gain or loss year after year. since they don’t do distributios all gain (loss) will keep accumilating and then what? I don’t know.
I sometimes fear about these instrument becuase in real estate these compplex financial instruments only caused all sorts of issues. As a main street person i never understand why they took my mortagage and bundled it and sold to someone in China!!
so i am more on miners side than metals side even if profit will be less.
I’m not going to try and skim through all the posts today. If anyone has or had a question for me repeat it again and I’ll try to answer it now.
You will only get a K-1 on these ETF’s if there was a distribution. ETN’s are a different story.
Gary,
How was the climb?
Rodney
http://www.invescopowershares.com/pdf/P-DBETF-TAX-FLY-1-E.pdf
this has good q&a regarding these types etf ..
note that even if you have not sold, you will get k-1 and need to report on personal taxes.
Gary,
Have you received any K-1 forms for any of your etfs? Like AGQ?
bob – i don’t think that is correct .. agq never do distributions but people have already received k-1s.
The climb was great. Kind of cold in Vegas today though.
Yes I did.
ETNs is outside K-1s but they have risk of banks behind it going bankrupt. PLus i know only 2x gold etn dgp but no silver etn.
Gary,
The K-1 issue seems to be new to a bunch of us. Maybe when you get a chance you can tell us what it is.
in 2009 annual report of agq there is $21 gain per share for entire year of 2009. so someone definatly paid tax on that in addtion to tax on trading prodit as owners of agq did not. I don’t know how much they showed in 2010 as annual report is still now available.
What’s all this BS I’m reading about JP getting a license for storing PM’s at the NYMEX/COMEX?
Some blogs are making a big deal of it other’s are shrugging it off.
Is there anything here that stinks?
Something about JP now able to settle in SLV paper with its own vault as “storage”.
I’m not even sure what that means so I don’t even know if I should be concerned … 🙁
gary,
we are in day 6 of the daily cycle so does that mean we got another week and half before a daily top given 20-25 day cycle?
Hi Gary, do I remember correctly that you’ve mentioned that at the end of a C-wave gold and silver change track and gold tends to outperform? Would be great to cover in an upcoming report perhaps.
NEW POST
HMY caught fire today; up over 8%