From the March 2nd nightly report.

“Folks I want to start preparing you  for what’s ahead. Once we get into the final daily cycle up in gold I think we are going to see a parabolic move unlike anything we’ve seen yet. And on the flip side as the dollar starts to drop, or maybe crash is a more appropriate term, into it’s final three year cycle low we are going to see an absolute horror show unfold. That combination is going to drive gains unlike anything any of us have likely ever made before.

The world will be in an utter panic to get rid of dollars. And the stock market is not going to provide protection from this kind of inflationary storm so a lot of those dollars are going to end up in the commodity markets, and especially in the precious metals. When that kind of money hits a thin market like gold, and especially silver, it will drive gigantic gains.

There is going to be extreme temptation to jump off early simply because one can’t believe they could possibly make that much money that fast. Let me warn you now don’t give in to that temptation. We know what to look for at a three year cycle low and we know what to look for at a C-wave top. Until we see those signs sit tight. Trust me it’s going to be one of the hardest things you’ll do all year.

Folks, fortunes are going to be made in the next two months.”

465 thoughts on “WHAT’S AHEAD

  1. ecemery

    look what Trichets’ hawkish view / implied fight against inflation by raising rates – has done to the (completely screwed) EUR?

    Who’s to say a suggestion of change in policy or implications of rates to be raised wont do the same thing for the U.S dollar Gary/?

    I am having trouble seeing the U.S buck go much lower….ever.

  2. n1tro


    Physical isn’t my largest holding. Don’t forget all my paper silver that I can easily get in and out of with my 200:1 margin!

    $50 is just a point of reference. When Gary says the D wave is beginning (he is usually early by 2 days), at whatever price, i’d be tempted to unload just to load up in more physical a few months later.

  3. Gary

    I have to ask has there been any indication at all that Ben is going to raise rates?

    Of course not. The Fed is busy insisting there is no inflation so they can continue to print, print, print.

    The dollar has much much lower to go before we get any kind of meaningful bottom. Sentiment is still dead neutral. We need to reach panic levels before the three year cycle bottoms.

    If you are incapable of visualizing a dollar crisis there is very little chance you will be able to profit from one.

  4. Vish

    I’m in the UK, and instead of options (which I don’t understand fully) I use spread betting for leverage.

    Is there anyone else using spreadbetting here? It would be interesting to compare notes.

    What I did initilly was to have a bet size equivalent to money I cannot easily invest in gold/silver e.g. pension, cash isa, short term savings etc…

    I’m now starting to add a little leverage there too.

    I also have money in a Stocks ISA, which is in PHAU, PHAG & more recently LSIL (UK equivalents of GLD,SLV,AGQ)

    I’m now wondering what the point is in maintaining a separate stocks ISA when I can get tax free profits from spreadbetting alone, and its by far the easiest way to trade.

    I also have an Interactive Brokers account which I opened to gain access to international stocks, and to reduce commission cost (which is huge in UK). I have some GDXJ & SIL there

  5. ddn3f


    I think Poly asked a question about the number of daily cycles left in gold’s C-wave. I think he said will this next daily be right translated and then the daily cycle after that be left translated. I was also wondering if you could answer that in the nightly reports.

  6. Vish

    Also interested in GBPUSD views. I’ve started to hedge out my dollar exposure as I expect GBP to outperform in this final C leg

  7. ecemery

    I hear you Gary..and well noted – thanks – I do appreciate your blog and views… big time.

    Food for thought though:

    Who’d of considered EUR rate raise suggestions only a short “6 weeks ago” amidst potencial defaults/banking failure/ in the E.U?..and now look?

    Just to keep an eye open…things can happen rather fast.

    And no….I don’t have it im my immediate plans to make money from a U.S dollar crash no.

    Thanks Gary….go go go

  8. ecemery

    In taking a look at any Commod vs JPY charts such as AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY…

    The large ‘ascending triangles’ on verge of upside breakouts – tell a tale of the carry trade beginning to take hold , as the big money begins to move away from the U.S dollar as the current funding currency – and begins selling Yen.

    USD/JPY bottoms – and the upswing will have massive dollar buying as the carry moves on to Yen as funding currency.

    Perhaps the timing will also coinside with your views…this part I cannot say for sure….but…could you question this line of thought?

    I hope not! – and I hope so! – I’ve got some serious money at play in this area.

  9. David Kafrick


    I didn´t quite understand your view on USDJPY…

    I have been following the USDJPY very closely, and I am very confident that when this leg down in the dollar ends (what Gary calls the 3 year cycle low), the USDJPY will put in the bottom of all bottoms.

    I am betting on the USDJPY going to 150 in 5 years or so.

  10. pepper2009

    Well I don´t understand too much about economics and politics. But what is the game plan of the Fed and the politicans and their advisors (also from the scientific community)? I think there should be at least a minimum portion of intelligence to govern the society and financial safeness. So they should know about the consequences of their irresponsible decisions (printing money). Gary what is the point I miss. If your forecast for the goldmarket the next couple of years is true, when do such people come to their senses? Or is this all a repeating game ripping societies or are the consequences of non-printing are much worse for us?

  11. ecemery

    ooops…we’ve started a currency debate at Gary’s blog!

    In following the USD/JPY – you are right on the money….in fact recent volume spikes (some days 3 times the norm) also indicate to me that this move is currently “on the move”.

    Long USD/JPY will be one of the greatest trades of the coming year in my view….but the exact “when” is something I cannot say…perhaps it works into Gary’s timing….but in my view and from a currency/money flow perspective (i do this for a living) its already happening now….as huuuuuuuge money is changing hands in preparation for this shift.

  12. DG

    I posted yesterday that I bought more AGQ during the sharpest part of the dip, and someone asked why I would do that ahead of the payroll report and Op Ex. Well, heres’ why.

  13. Poly


    You’re right, although this could still easily turn sharply lower. Either way it’s all going to be chump change looking back in 2-3 weeks time.
    The Aug rally and subsequent shut out action is still so vivid that I wouldn’t dare being anything short of 100% invested here. Like you, Gary etc, only positions left to add now should be any extra leverage.

  14. pimaCanyon

    Brian and others who asked about vuvvy’s signal:

    The way I understand it is that he has a system. Support and resistance seems to be part of its parameters. The system gives a short signal when significant support is broken.

    However, what vuvvy has noticed is that even though the system gives a short signal, if at the time gold is in a C wave and is not anywhere near an IT low timing wise, then that short signal marks the bottom of a daily cycle low.

    So in this case his system if were traded by itself would generate a small loss. But combined with Gary’s cycle analysis and ABCD waves, the short signal from his system has been great at timing daily cycle bottoms. So why not use it that way!

  15. pimaCanyon

    jeez, here we go again, are we at the beginning of a runaway move in PM’s?

    I was hoping to add today. I did nibble a bit yesterday, so I will stand pat with what I have, waiting for either another move down into a more clearly defined daily cycle low OR a break above the recent all time high in gold of 1441 (and then wait for a pullback?)

    One thing that would suggest waiting is that –IF– yesterday’s move down was an A wave of an ABC correction (not to be confused with Gary’s ABCD terminology), then the move up last night and this morning could be wave B, and this should be followed by a sharp/fast move down to a low that is lower than yesterday’s low. The trouble with ABC corrections is that if the move up is strong–and this one appears to be–then sometimes the B wave of the ABC can actually exceed the high that was made at the top before the correction started (in this case 1441). If that were to happen, we’d have lots of folks buying the breakout, only to see gold crash back down to yesterday’s low or even lower.

  16. Poly

    SLW up only 2.3% on these monster moves, pretty weak.
    I would suspect any sudden reversal in Silver would send SLW plunging into deep red numbers.

  17. Poly


    I purchased my first AGQ lot for $54 last summer and probably sold and re-purchased it 10 times in the 9 months since.
    Every time I sold, I said the same thing! 🙂

  18. DG

    IF we have started the rocket ride now,I believe it will be very important to follow Gary’s counsel about not selling anything. There will be prices that make one drool, but the biggest gains will come at the end when the public goes nuts. You really want to be there for that! As SB said, he’d be selling into something like today under normal circumstances, but if we are going to go parabolic, the best thing too do is smile and walk away.

  19. vuvvy

    Pima, your explanation was better than mine:)I would actually like to see gold make a higher high here before my system sells and than the fractals would match last fall’s rally better.My sell signal came 32 days into the cycle and marked the exact low to the day.

  20. David Kafrick

    S&P action during the past 2 weeks is very similar to what happened in November. I still think we need to test the lower end of this range (1295-1290) in order to move up.

  21. LowTax

    The only way I can see a daily continuing lower is if the dollar finds a bid here. But looking at the recent price action (and in light of Trichet’s comments), there’s none of the panic sell-off like at the November low – so if there is a bounce, I think it will be weak and gold/silver will simply trade wideways for a few days before taking off again.

  22. basil

    Very happy with SBR.to, which until three days ago was my only silver stock (small investment). Then I added another total loser stock, which is SQI.V at 0.5 (also small investment). I was lucky, because it exploded the next day. Now it’s forming a nice bull flag. There is a lot more to come in both, I’d think; just look at the long term charts. I think it’s these type of laggard stocks that will do best now among the silver stocks in this current phase.

  23. DG

    I have been in things like this before. (I was short gold after the Hunt Crisis top—now that was fun!) The tricky thing is that stuff that usually works won’t. Look at SPX. A million “overdone to the upside” indications over the past few months has not stopped it. Look at SPX in 2008/9. Overdone to the downside meant nothing. I for one am counting on Gary’s analysis that we are going to have a spike up here. Makes sense to me to end this leg. If that is so, trading out to try to save 2% and then missing 35% is a negative expectation unless you are 95% sure you are going to be right on getting that 2% dip—and you cannot be that sure.

  24. Donagh

    Hi Gary, Really love your work. Has taken a long time to make myself to stick with Old Turkey, but I’m glad I do now. You have made a believer out of me.

    An idle question in view of the incredible relative strength being shown by silver, & based on Gold projected to hit $1650 region, do you think $50 might be starting to look like a conservative target for silver?
    Maybe one for the nightly report some time! But many thanks for keeping us on the straight & narrow.

  25. Ryan


    I too am disappointed with the performance of SLW and especially after the earnings which I thought looked really good. I guess the street disagrees. Maybe that’s what’s holding it back today even with such a big day with silver. I am also a bit concerned with the high PE, anybody care to comment about that?

  26. Steven

    Does anyone know what happened to ZSL (double silver short)? Did they do a reverse split? It was $8-$9 and then all of a sudden it is around $30 while silver has gone up.

  27. Gary

    many tech stocks had PE’s in the hundreds during the tech bubble. SLW price has nothing to do with PE’s. It’s all about expectations for the future price of silver.

    There is a gap on today’s chart that probably needs to fill. That probably explains SLW sluggish performance. But now that $44 has been breached I suspect it won’t be long before it hits $45.

  28. Razvan

    as hard as i try it is impossible to catch one of these short term tops and i have to take a drawdown. I am worried this will happen when we get to the top of the C wave and we end up getting creamed. I want to hear what is Garys plan to get us out at the top without getting caught in a huge spike.

  29. Gary

    My bad. $1436.10 is the number we’re looking for to be breached. That would form the swing low.

    I mistakenly said $1440 earlier.

  30. DG

    Nike: I’ll sell my TBT if TLT hits 91. I’d like to hold it as I want to be short bonds for distance at some point, but if this isn’t it yet, well, so be it. It’ll have been a profitable few-days-long trade instead of the start of something bigger.

  31. viking

    Gary (or others),

    Got some dry powder to put to work in next week or so. Wait for a pullback or pile in on top of this run? Insights much appreciated! Best of luck everyone.

  32. Shalom Bernanke

    Likewise with PE’s, many financial stocks had very low PE’s (under 10)just before the collapse started in late ’08, and that didn’t stop them from getting vaporized.

  33. Ryan

    Thanks for explaining Gary. I did put some more in Slw yesterday and held off adding to agq hoping for lower prices today but going to hold off for now and sticking to Gary’s plan.

  34. Josh

    The old Josh would be selling into this gap this morning. The new Josh is holding on, though the temptation is strong.

  35. TommyD

    Silver Bugs,

    How much above price of silver should one expect to pay for silver eagles?

    I paid 2.55 above yesterday. Is that normal pricing for coin dealer profit?? TIA

  36. aries

    Gary, a naive comment. Why we should have also SIL instead of putting all money in AGQ, if we can stand the drawdowns?

  37. Strellsy

    Vish, I am in UK as well.

    The thing about spreadbetting is that long-term you will lose out by repeatedly paying the spread as the contract rolls over. So if you are planning on investing for long-term, far better to use an ISA.

    Also, spreadbetting isn’t always tax free. It is considered to be gambling, and tax free as long as it is not your main source of income.

  38. Sasa

    I’m from europe and check gold/silver prices valued in euros perhaps a bit more than us traders.

    Lots of times it makes much more sense looking at PM chart in eur than usd. Today with ‘new high at 35’ silver bumped right into 25.150 eur mark it touched 2 times before.

    And in fact it’s 6th time breaching the 25eur/ounce level in top of a spike before falling back down.

    Maybe worth looking at.

    As a side note, i dont really have all that much trading experience, so my comments are more about what i find interesting and perhaps some of you with years of trading can either spot something new or explain me, that i just invented the wheel for n-th time 😉 just sharin…

    Cheers from europe,

  39. thedocument

    As eager as we all are to see PMs keep trucking higher, I doubt yesterday’s dip by gold constituted a daily cycle low. Gold has yet to break the cycle’s trend line, and the dollar is still due to bounce out of its own daily cycle low. I suspect the next few sessions will see one more dip lower… not that it matters since I’m not trading around daily cycles, but it helps to be mentally prepared.

  40. Jayhawk

    I’m showing a nice little pennant on the 15 minute gold and silver charts. If those break up, we will easily get our swing low.

  41. Gary

    If one can stand the draw downs then it’s an option. Of course it’s easy to say one won’t have trouble with a draw when everything is going up, but another thing altogether when it actually happens.

    I remember everyone saying back in Dec. how they would back up the truck if silver corrected. But then when it did very few actually did load up at the bottom.

    In real time corrections are scary.

  42. Steven


    When you say the next few sessions will likely see one more dip lower are you talking about the dollar or gold/silver?


  43. pimaCanyon

    good question, aries, and not really that naive (at least to me).

    Today SLV is up 3 percent, but SIL up only 2.65. AGQ is up 6 percent!!

  44. Redwine


    Tulving and Bullion Direct are both higher. You can get them for $2 over if you use the nucleo exchange at Bullion Direct with patience.

  45. coolkevs

    AGQ 200 – nice round number – hey, it worked for SKF and SRS back in the day. The Demark exhaustion MONTHLY for DXY 72.5 is only 5% away – we already have the QUARTERLY exhaustion – how high can gold/silver go if the dollar is limited down to 5%??? Be very careful here and don’t get too greedy!!!

  46. Vish


    Thanks for that. The way i see it…

    – rolling contract costs
    – higher spread

    – trade costs (10GBP per trade for me, but no ISA mgmt fee)
    – spread can be high too i’ve noticed
    – dollar exposure

  47. Steven

    It’s official, the protests are now in Saudi Arabia.


    And apparently there is a large potest set for tomorrow and then 3 more in the month of March.

    Iran is also expecting more protests early next week. It seems as if the entire Arab world will e engulfed in attempted revolutions over the coming weeks and months.

    Gary – Could this be the thing that propels gold/silver higher (or at least the excuse people use when we know it is actually the 3 year decline in the dollar).

  48. Gary

    I’ve said this before. Three year cycle lows aren’t about technical indicators. They are about fundamentals and panic sentiment readings.

    I think you can probably throw your Demark indicator in the trash can for the next several months. It isn’t going to work any better than any other technical tool right now.

  49. Karl

    For those of us who are retired, but with substantial portfolios, it isn’t prudent to put all the money into PM. However if the dollar collapses and the general market goes substantially south as you project… can you suggest other additional areas to hold that would gain or at least hold value as the dollar and market goes south? Even better, could you address this in the nightly update?

  50. Strellsy


    Absolutely, which is why spreadbetting is better for trading short-term and ISA is better for investing long-term.

    I use both, and very often siphon off profits from my trading accounts into my ISA or SIPP.

    That way I am building core assets which I plan to hopefully pass on to my children.

    Putting your trading profits into a SIPP is a great way of getting 20% or 40% tax relief from the government (depending on what income bracket your are in).

    So not only are you not paying tax on your spreadbetting profits, you are then offsetting them against your income and getting the tax back!

    There is nothing better than taking £800 from my trading account and turning into a grand overnight by paying it into my SIPP.

  51. Gary

    I only want to be invested in a secular bull market. PM is the only one left with the possible exception of agriculture. Diversifying your portfolio into other areas that are not in a bull market isn’t spreading risk it is creating it.

    The Fed is making it very tough to find a safe place to put your money. I want mine in the bull.

  52. Gary

    Ag probably is a good investment I just don’t know how to do a cycle count on it. So I can’t tell when to get in and get out. It’s also driven by weather to some extent and I really have no idea how to predict that.

    I can on gold and silver so I want to stay in the area where I know what I’m doing.

  53. Gary

    I was wondering what happened to Beanie myself.

    Gold and oil was supposed to fall and the stock market soar if I remember right.

  54. Razvan

    2 days before gold made a new high Beanie said he was leaving the blog for the next 2 years.
    We also found out he has a blog
    Beanie’s blog and he has a newsletter that he sells for $100/month

  55. DG

    Pima: Thanks for the good wishes. I am about as likely to go without my laptop as without a leg, so no worries there. I will just be on flights and leading training classes so off line a lot. I wouldn’t miss everyone’s comments, however. I’m very impressed with how many savvy people there are on this blog. I won’t be posting any of my short-term trades while I am traveling, though.

  56. Wes


    Granting that we didn’t break gold’s trendline, is that some additional requirement for a cycle low ? I’ve been reading Gary for nearly a year and I don’t remember that requirement being discussed.

    Please elaborate.

  57. LowTax

    Kitco shows gold’s high today at 1433.40 and the high yesterday was 1436.10 – still a few dollars short of a swing low…

  58. EricH

    “Now would be a good time for mlmt to peek in and tell us he covered his gold short yesterday in the afterhours session.”

    For -1 dollar lost.

  59. TZ(5288)


    My comment was general since a *few* people have been discussing commodities lately.

    Oh, and others say I’m too direct, “smart”, and “superior” when I post, so you have to factor that into my reply. (Seems people often view my comments as attacks when I simply don’t react well to things I think are pretty clearly documentable as wrong.)

    Regardless, I’m just calling it as I see it. The chart doesn’t lie.

    There is risk in ANYTHING.

    There are people who think concentration in metals LOWERS risk. Other say it RAISES.

    There are a hundred calculations YOU have to make about YOUR situation. (And if you can’t answer some of them or there are blind spots then clearly keep reading, asking questions, and preparing. The only person who will look out for you is YOU. And none of my posts are investment advice – they are just opinions of mine. Buyer beware.)

    Yes, I guess having DBA spreads your money into another investment. But you would also have lost 1/2 over metals in last 3 years and there shows no clear sign of a change – although it might be flat lately).

    Keep working on it and do as you see fit. I’m in metals, not ag.

  60. pimaCanyon


    You are smart to consider not putting all your eggs in one basket. I would not be doing that either EXCEPT for the fact that Gary has studied this market extensively and so far has been excellent at getting in and out at appropriate times.

    I certainly would not be as heavily invested in PM’s as I currently am if I did not have access to Gary’s knowledge.

    It’s a tough time to be an investor, stocks in a very long term bear and very large trading range, and “safe” investments like muni’s and treasuries subject to volatility and even possible default (on the muni’s). Even though PM’s can have crazy scary volatility, it seems like (with Gary’s help) they are one of the least risky places to be right now.

  61. Dan

    I am sitting on some march 180 calls in AGQ.
    Sell into this strength or hang on? Been lucky so far since i really am not an experienced option guy. any thoughts would be appreciated.

  62. pimaCanyon


    I believe you are correct. However, the question is: “the high for what instrument?”

    gold futures has not broken its high of yesterday. GLD has. Gold spot, I don’t know because I don’t have access to a chart of gold spot and I don’t know when it begins and ends its trading day.

  63. David Kafrick

    If you want exposure to agriculture and other soft commodities you have to go with the futures contracts. ETFs like DBA, DAG and so forth suck big time. If you can´t trade futures, than forget about soft commodities, there is just no other efficient way to do this.

  64. TZ(5288)


    SLV is the silver etf trust (essentially silver).
    SIL is the silver mining stock ETF.

    My chart was intentionally using SLV to show the performance of GDXJ against silver – since silver is the basis of most of gary’s investments.

    SIL, the silver miners, is FLAT against silver itself. You get no added advantage to having the miners (at THIS TIME), but you likely have the added risk of company/general-stock exposure.

  65. traderlady

    Pima, Thanks. I have been following
    Gary for a long time and just started to subscribe. It was hard to commit
    the money but with this blog and your confidence in Gary it helps. I shall add at the next daily low.

  66. pimaCanyon


    If I had your AGQ calls, I would not sell. I would, however, think about rolling them over into April or May or even June calls.

    You could also exercise the calls–that is, convert to AGQ, but you would have to have the money in your account to buy at the 180 strike price, and also you’d probably get a better price to go ahead an sell the call and then buying AGQ with the proceeds if you do want to exercise (because there is probably a small amount of premium left in the option price).

    Bottom line is that you need to think about getting out of them before option expiration. Rolling to another month is probably the best option (ahem) at this point. that way, you stay invested. But you would want to sell the calls and buy the May or June calls at pretty much the same time so you don’t risk the market moving up while you are out of your position.

  67. TZ(5288)

    “..Diversification is something that stock brokers came up with to protect themselves, so they wouldn’t get sued. Henry Ford never diversified, Bill Gates didn’t diversify. The way to get rich is to put your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket very carefully. And make sure you have the right basket.

    You can go broke diversifying….”

    -Jim Rogers

    To those who haven’t gathered, I believe in concentrating investments and then focusing on them intently. My experience with ‘spreading money around’ is that I don’t make much of anything that matters.

  68. Avann

    traderlady, before I found Gary I was investing in gold … about 10-15% of my account. Gary and this blog have convinced me to put it all in … I have made more money in the last 18 months then I had in the previous 10 years.

  69. Jayhawk

    I think you start with Gary investing in some gold. The you get interested in some silver, then the miners, then 100% silver miners with AGQ, next silver futures. After that? We all pool out money together and start a junior silver miner. 🙂

  70. David Kafrick


    The number 1 reason that people go broke is lack of diversification. It is the number 1 reason why people drop out of the Forbes 400 list. They have 95% of their net worth in their own companies, and then something goes wrong and they lose almost everything.

    Bill Gates does diversify, just look at Microsoft today and compare it with 15 years ago.

    And by the way, Jim Rogers is diversified in several commodities.

  71. Dan

    We could be like the reality show “goldrush” where a bunch of guys leased a claim up in Alaska.
    So far I think Gary’s way is more profitable But, mining looks kinda fun lol

  72. wingman


    I agree with Pima. I would roll to April. There are no May’s out there and to buy June you are paying the premium for the extra time, but that isn’t time you will need as this C wave be over by June expiration.
    I am holding April 180’s and depending where we are at in the C wave will either sell roll into May (which they should add after March expires).

  73. TZ(5288)

    Put it this way, diversification guarantees you won’t go broke ALMOST EXACTLY PROPORTIONAL to the SAME EXTENT that it guarantees you won’t get *RICH* either!

    Professional entities are concerned that you don’t got BROKE. They are NOT concerned that you get rich (but they do want you to make enough to pay their bills.)

    Since YOU are concerned about getting rich (I assume), YOU are the one who has to take charge and try to pull it off.

    There are clear issues with concentrating investments. Danger. Danger.

    Concentration risk involves SKILLS.
    It involves DISCIPLINE.
    It involves VIGILANCE

    (And of course there is never a guarantee of success in the end anyway.)

    The theory of many here on this blog is that Gary makes up for whatever experience, vigilence, discipline, or otherwise that they may be lacking on their own and thus allows a concentration of investment even for novices.

    It’s a valid view I would say, but of course, again, nothing is guaranteed.

    We live in VERY unusual times financially and the risks are all over the place. Do the best you can and don’t stop looking for ways things can go wrong.

  74. Romeo Bravo

    I have heard the expression to get rich, concentrate your assets. To stay rich, diversify.

    Mark Cuban is a great example. Sold his company to Yahoo for a few billion in stock during the dot com craziness. But he sold out of a good chunk of his Yahoo stock not at the peak, but for a billion or so +. Thus when the dot com bust came, he had plenty of money in the bank.

  75. DG

    David K: Sugar just showed up on my short screen. You mentioned a big move up soon…? Mine is short term so maybe dip first, but what makes you think it will rally?

  76. David Kafrick

    TZ said:

    “Put it this way, diversification guarantees you won’t go broke ALMOST EXACTLY PROPORTIONAL to the SAME EXTENT that it guarantees you won’t get *RICH* either!”

    Up to a certain point, diversification diminishes risk more than it diminishes returns. So by diversifying the right ammount (which is not too much) you actually increase your risk-adjusted return.

  77. Glen

    Regarding diversification:

    “Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they are doing.”
    – Warren Buffet

  78. fubsy_cooter

    Well, this bull continues to find ways to keep riders off its back. Yesterday, it looked like we were beginning into an actionable correction, and today it takes off again, leaving prospective positions on the sidelines.

    My trade journal has buys at the next swing low and following break out, but a one day drop doesn’t constitute a swing low signal for me.

    Of course, I am over 85% invested and have been for the past few weeks, but for my parents’ portfolios, I’m much more conservative, and would have loved an orderly correction from yesterday’s sell off to add to currnet holdings. I should know by now, the gold bull is not going to give hand outs. 🙂

    Ride em cowboy!

  79. DG

    Diversification presupposes ignorance. If you don’t know how a coin flip will wind up, you play the “odds.” But if you were able to exactly measure the force of the launch, where the flipping pressure is placed, the wind in the room, etc. you would know whether it would come up heads or tails. It is work to measure all that stuff, of course, and if you don’t want to do the work, bet 1/2 your money on heads and 1/2 on tails and you are well diversified. But if you do do the work and know something it’s crazy not to increase your expectancy by concentrating. And then you have a stop in case you are wrong (remember the old stop at HUI 518?), so your risk is not “Oh my God” but,say, 10%. But to risk 10% to make 100% seems pretty good to me and leads to a much easier retirement.

  80. David Kafrick


    My sugar call was made based on my analysis of its price action, I don´t know how else to put it 🙂

    It´s probably based on a larger time frame than your trade´s time frame. Even though I didn´t take this trade, my stop would be somewhere around $28 (May contract)with a target of $35-$36

  81. Driver

    I might as well throw my comments in on diversification. BG (before Gary) I was diversified by being in only the spx & ndx indices. I’m still in those (all the time, long or short) but now I hold Gary’s recommendations, also. I might add that I’m making a lot more in PMs (when they go up.)

  82. DG

    David K: “Price action” works for me. If it breaks for a few days and I get a buy setup I may take it. Let’s see what happens.

  83. David Kafrick

    When Warren Buffett and these other guys talk about diversification they are being critical of the insane level of “diversification” of the mutual funds. Buying 100 different stocks make no sense and serve no diversification purpose. There are studies that show that 10 to 15 stocks is the best diversification level, anything above that and you are not diversifying your risk anymore.

    Does Warren Buffett´s portfolio consist of only 1 stock?

  84. fubsy_cooter

    I just took a look at the charts, and have to say that I think the move into the daily low is still in play.

    The dollar is hitting its Novemebr low, and likely a small break below it will allow money to shift hands and take the dollar a little higher for a few days, with the commodities complex correcting. At least I hope that’s the case.

    Looking at the long term chart of the dollar, it seems like it wants to go to 69 and change. A nice cleansing counter trend move would be just what the doctor ordered to set things up. Too bad this is all tied to the demise of our society.

  85. DG

    Jennifer: I honestly don’t know where the stop is at this point! As a trader I believe I’d be able to tell something was amiss long before 518. It’s usually the previous bottom (we shouldn’t make a lower low) so that’d be gold at $1307! Anything else is possible without ruining the higher high-higher low pattern.

  86. TommyD

    Jayhawk, Redwine and Rand,

    thank you for your responses.

    I wonder the higher silver goes,, basic demand may drive the ‘above spot’ up even more.

  87. Silverman

    I took a look at Beanie’s blog. He has a list of his most popular posts. Most have “0” comments. Quite a following he has there. In addition, he hedges most of his statements (especially his “PMs will crash soon” ones) 6 ways to Sunday. I’m tempted to post a link to SMT there.

  88. Avann

    Anyone who know the answer please … assuming we do not break over 1436 today … will that still be the target for a swing low on Monday or will it reset to today’s high?
    The terminology document mentions something about some swings taking multiple days to complete … wondering if this is one of those situations?

  89. pimaCanyon


    If most of your PM positions are these AGQ calls, I would roll into options that are further in the money. Gary likes a delta of .80 or greater. Right now that would have you buying 155 or lower strike price for June, 170 or lower for April.

    The problem with these AGQ calls that are that deep in the money is the bid/ask spread–it’s very wide.

    Note that you will pay less premium on the Aprils, but you might have to roll them again if the C wave is still cranking in mid-April. Each time you roll, you eat some or most of the spread.

    You might consider SLV deep in the money calls as an alternative. You don’t get the leverage (although you ARE getting leverage by using calls instead of buying shares outright), but the spread is better.

    It would help you to decide if you had a screen that shows delta, bid/ask, volume, and open interest.

    Another thing you could consider is doing most of your funds deep in the money and a very small percentage out of the money (OOM), or even at the money. The OOM calls are more of a lotto play–more volatile, but potentially more profitable. Also, the spread is usually very tight on OOM options. And OOM options start to lose value quickly as expiration date gets one month or sooner. If you have OOM calls and for some reason we get a longer than expected move sideways/down for the daily cycle low, those OOM calls will lose money.

  90. Gary

    A move above $1436.10 will form a swing low.

    Let me warn everyone that a swing low in no way confirms a cycle low. On the contrary a swing this quickly virtually guarantees the cycle low is still ahead.

  91. Silverman

    It gets better.

    The requirements for joining Beanie’s site are:

    “1) You must have a copy of my manual. You can’t really understand and trade my system unless you know what it is.”

    His manual is $400!!! Amazing!

  92. Poly

    “virtually guarantees the cycle low is still ahead.”

    Unless you go back and mark that previous dip as ‘the cycle”. That would suck from a planning/expectation stand point, but the next cycle being the last one in this C-Wave (2nd last?), is that too much to believe?

  93. Arun

    It turned out to be a good buy at 1415 yday. Moving stop to b/e now.

    Poly/Pima.. The idea then was this daily cycle could strech another week or so. Dollar’s gotta test the Nov lows leaves more upside for gold. Given those, 5 pt stop’s not gonna hurt you.

  94. Silverman


    Can you say more about volume and open interest? I never know how to use this information in deciding which call to buy.


  95. DumbMovingAvg

    Thanks Gary. I thought there was some sort of a two or more days “rule.” Even a daily cyle should be a minimum of half a month, 14 days, or around 10 trading days.

    I get confused becasue the cycle starts from the trough low. So, the cycle is half over already as it starts heading downward. It just has to finish up a half cycle. That is why there may be only 7 days remaining before the swing low.

    I simplify a normal cycle by looking for about 4 trading days up followed by about 4 days down.

  96. Poly


    I don’t know, my gut read is telling me that’s all we’re going to get, contrary to what cycles should do. We see similar action in equities too!

    If we’re coming to witness the climax of this massive c-wave, it fits this thinking.

    Also when we rocketed higher first thing this morning, I was thinking this was going to be a big sucker and a big drop into that cycle low. But looking at the size, strength and sustained buying of today’s move, it just feels like the type of lock out move you see just after new cycles begin.

    Of course the dollar not forming a bottom yet dampens this theory, but then yet again it itself is heading into a 3 yr crises low, don’t expect too much there.

    No shortage of fun.

  97. Steven


    I’m a bit confused. Do you think we saw the cycle low in gold now or still ahead? Apologies if this is something only for the premium newsletter.

  98. pimaCanyon


    I believe the bid/ask spread gets tighter as the volume and open interest go higher. If something is very thinly traded, spread will be wider. I believe that’s why the spread is so wide on AGQ compared to SLV options because the volume and OI are so much lower on the AGQ’s.

  99. pimaCanyon

    for example: look at SLV April 25 calls. OI of 12,442, bid ask spread of 10 cents.

    look at AGQ April 160 calls. OI of 20, bid/ask spread $2.40 !

  100. AGoldhamster

    this is the biggest divergence … metals – G&S stocks I have ever seen in last 10 years … metals bigtime up, silver even more … XAU red and HUI barely in the green.

    Normally this would mean to take profits in metals – 100% sure.

    But this divergence is different in my opinion … just have no clue what it could mean?

    Anybody ????

    War it is NOT – because defence stocks are red … what else???

  101. Neil

    Wouldn’t we get the same bang for the buck if we would use the same money spent on a $40 ITM AGQ option and spent it on $5 ITM SLV options instead?

  102. Razvan

    Beanie only has one subscriber/ apprentice .. the well known MLMT. They’ve kept out of sight today, i think they went to do a fundraiser, carwash or something like that, so they raise enough money to cover their silver shorts.

  103. fubsy_cooter

    I think the divergence can be explained by the supply shortages of physical metals. It is a multivariate shortage ranging from investment demand and industrial demand exceeding supply. The markets are thin and gaining traction, and the price of silver is shooting up, while miners may be more tentative in the day to day due to costs of high oil.

    Just my two cents.

  104. Poly


    Use an option price calculator, give you an idea on which is going to perform best, based on your expected outcome or strategy.

  105. DG

    A goldhamster: XAU and HUI are both green (neither is red). They do not need to outperform every day and are stocks, with the Dow down 150.

  106. Poly


    Silver right up on high’s ALL DAY long suggests many want to be as long as possible going into the weekend.

  107. Neil

    I recalculated and with targets of $50 slv and $400 AGQ I would probably need about 13 SLV options to equal an AGQ option. To do this with April SLV I would need to buy lower delta options.

  108. pimaCanyon

    I suggest we no longer refer to the two trolls who will not be named here. By doing so, we only encourage their reappearance. It would be very nice for all of us they don’t return here for at least two years!

  109. mylifemytrade

    @shame on bernanke dude,

    I was out BE 2 days ago.. communicated real time.

    @ Razvan, EricH and other impolite jerks

    SLV puts – the 50% I was left with (I posted here for the cover of other half in real time). Other half, only Razvan can recover they are so deep under water.

    HOWEVER, Back in 100% at EOD today.

    Gary is right about crazy amt of money to be made in next 2 months.. I am not so sure WHO makes it though 🙂

  110. TZ(5288)

    >All time weekly close for gold could happen. Looks like around 1423 or above needs to hold

    Just a general reminder to everyone again. gold and silver don’t close on the COMEX/NYMEX/CME until 5:15pm eastern. They still trade for another 45min.

    Those contracts are the main contracts used for gold and silver prices INCLUDING $gold and $silver that gary uses for his analysis from stockcharts (although this only seems true from observation because stockcharts is vague on how they get their prices.)

    So, you don’t really have ‘closes’ until 5:15pm each fri.

    PS: kitco’s charts are roughly equivalent to the same prices and times.

  111. TZ(5288)

    By the looks of it somebody is horribly trapped short on the wrong side of the silver market.

    These relentless gains should continue until there is blowup somewhere and that entity splits open.

    It’s interesting alright.

  112. Poly

    TZ, what was the volume like today? Any comment regarding the strength? I don’t see a single dip of more than what looks like 10cents, amazing.

  113. Rick

    drsadov – regarding usa.v, it is ussif here. I’ve owned it for a while now and it has been very good to me.

  114. rtshort1

    Dang HL… should have sold last Friday. I’ve watched my SLW and AGQ run up all week only to have that dog chain my overall account.

  115. TZ(5288)

    >TZ, what was the volume like today?

    The volumes on GLD and SLV are a reasonably good estimate of volumes traded on futures. For most purposes those will suffice.

  116. Ben

    TZ, hopefully the about-to-rupture won’t be part of the actual government, i.e. GS or JPM, or else there will be some surprises coming out of the SEC designed to rob us on their behalf.

  117. TZ(5288)


    Yeah, i’ve pondered that. I don’t believe there will be special exchange or govt action at this time, but you never know.

  118. David


    Yesterday, I asked you never to cover your gold shorts.

    Your reply:

    “@David actually you are right… thats what my intention is.

    March 3, 2011 2:21 PM”

    Now you’re claiming that you covered your shorts two days ago?

  119. Ben

    TZ, I doubt there will be action this cycle, but next cycle, probably increased margin requirements, and when a full blown panic in the dollar begins, all bets are off about how the gov’t will try to screw the little guy.

  120. AGoldhamster

    MYML … something is definitely on with silver (and SIL confirming) … guess some news over the weekend (maybe the long awaited bombshell from Keiser?)

    this has the earmarks of a gap on monday … we’ll know sunday night

    but risk is you will pay a high price for that 100% short

    @pimaCanyon: tape changed in last few minutes to the good. At the time I posted $XAU was in the red and $HUI +0.35 or so.
    Also with Gold up 14 bucks from the lows and silver rallying bigtime the HUI in comparision is way too weak imho. If you would exclude the silver miners – HUI would even have been red.

    I guess the boyz in power tried to avoid the crowd joining the party in painting a confusing tape for HUI. That is a recently reappearing pattern – HUI grinding lower during NY session and then gapping north next day. Again the boyz imho! In the end I don’t mind as I just trade the metals.

    On silver I’m with you – no doubt there. Good chance for a gap IMHO. So seems sunday night asia session should be watched closely for further clues.

  121. rick

    Hi all, I am a new subscriber and first-time poster. Sorry if this has already been mentioned (I haven’t read all the archives). But, looking at the weekly chart for GLD with Bollinger Bands applied (20,2), the “Bollinger Squeeze” is definitely in play. The Bands were at their narrowest 2 weeks ago, the week of Feb 18. This is the narrowest they have been since Aug 2005. Typically, as volatility picks up and the bands begin to widen, price will start to move in the direction of the historical trend. Since GOLD is a bull market, it is probable that prices will go UP.

    I know you don’t need another indicator to tell you what you already know, but I get great comfort from knowing that we are only at the beginning (this is only week 2) of the widening of the Bollinger Bands, with several weeks to go before is starts to narrow again. A typical cycle for GLD is 4 to 6 months, but just as with Gary’s cycles, they will be slightly left or right translated.

  122. TZ(5288)


    Oh I COMPLETELY expect margins to get jacked HARD on this rally. Maybe 50% or so easily. 100%? never know.

    I’ve left appropriate funds in my account to handle that eventuality.

  123. TZ(5288)

    No swing low on gold.

    (Of course in the scheme of the universe there is nothing *requiring* a swing low or anything else for markets to move in a direction or not. Still, Gary’s does well with his system.)

    Enjoy the weekend all.

  124. Arun

    I wudn’t put too much emphasis om highest weekly close. Last time it happened, the following day n week was bad. Around 1422, i guess. Remember it quite well coz got burned. Heh.

  125. Razvan

    Quote of the day!
    John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management:

    “That’s where the price is going to be set in the physical market and when that happens these guys on the short side of the paper market are going to have a religious experience.”

  126. Dan

    Pima and wingman,
    I owe the last bit of increase in my account to you! lol
    I was ready to pull the trigger and sell the AGQ options but I considered your input and stayed.

  127. Jayhawk

    GDX and the HUI have been pretty mild performers and very erratic over the past few years. We had those three big up day and now three sideways day. Appears to be the final lines here of resistance at the nose bleed areas. Notice above the top line we have only had a couple daily closes and that was the blow off top at the end of the last intermediate cycle. I think a close and hold above this line for several days and the miners could really get cooking. (Our clue here is watching the front runner-silver and the elite silver play SLW–all breaking out to new highs once these prior resistance levels were overcome)


    This comparison chart between GLD and HUI shows that early in last summer’s intermediate launch, we had them neck and neck at first, with the miners getting cooking really late in the cycle. This time it looks like the HUI has run out ahead a bit. Could be very bullish for the miners or gold needs to play some catch up.


  128. Jayhawk

    Yes TZ, what did we miss it by 2 bucks? Dang!

    Arun-that close was at the end of the last intermediate cycle, but sure it may not mean much. I for one would like it to stick and have that level be support for the next daily cycle low (along with 580-590 HUI support)

  129. David

    The large miners are probably underperforming because their margins are impacted by the price of oil.

    Gold will have to outpace oil by a wide margin for the HUI to really get moving.

    The juniors trade mostly on speculation and momentum so they aren’t as impacted.

  130. Jayhawk

    Then there’s this regarding the large miners-

    HUI – Gold Ratio, GLD and the Ratio Spread Trade, Dan Norcini


    DX has been falling in a slow, steady channel. Interesting potential target for our current daily cycle on the dollar & gold.


    Take care everyone.

  131. DG

    MLMT must think we all have a memory disorder or something. Anyway, I’m sure he is now 100% short PM’s now with the 98¢ he has left. And he shorted gold at $1457 so is already way ahead! Alternate scenario: Gold will someday have a down day and he’ll say he shorted it at the high with leverage after taking out a mobile-home equity loan.

  132. David

    Recipe for a MLMT post:

    1) @_________, shame on you.

    2) I covered yesterday after-hours in Asian trading, immediately after posting that I just initiated my position. I just didn’t tell you that part.

    3) I just initiated another short. This time gold is going to zero, I swear. You are all gonna die.

  133. Otis

    The problem with MLMTs posts is he is a short term trader posting on an old turkey blog. Why not contribute something to the discussion instead of trying to get people to drop their positions. A lot of people are trying to add on pullbacks and I’m sure price/volume analysis could be useful in identifying good support entry zones. Otherwise all that’s happening is a scalper is scaring new members into losing their positions. Come on now!

  134. Otis


    It will be interesting to see if your ABC correction plays out. Gary mentioned odds are high we get another drop to the true daily cycle bottom. In EW 2 and 4 corrections in an impulse usually respect the lower channel line correct? So another drop down would break the channel line on the 60 min and mark the end of one impulse and the beginning of another once complete. Correct?(would also fit with Docs call for a break of the trend line) Curious what your count would be on this move?

  135. DumbMovingAvg

    The last EW gold chart I saw was the same as what Gary is doing except they use 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 instead of A, B, C, D. The 5 wave down is the bad one that everyone wants to avoid. Instead of stretched cycles, they have extended waves.

    Alot of people think EW is just guessing. Keep guessing until you get it right. “I do my own counts; so when I’m wrong, I know it.” That’s how I feel when I’m plumbing and can’t get a leak stopped.

    Also, sort of like Sherlock Holmes’ deductive logic. Unfortunately, Holmes is a fictional character of the same ilk as superheros like Superman and Batman of the Justice League.

  136. pvm999

    The dollar is in the timing band for putting in a daily cycle bottom.

    It looks to me that on the previous daily cycle lows, the dollar plunged for 2-3 days prior to bottoming.

    If that plays out again, then I expect another 2 – 3 day plunge (with a corresponding surge higher in PM’s) before the dollar bottoms.

    Once the dollar puts in a bottom, there will be a brief rally causing PM’s to finally work into a daily cycle low.


  137. Brian

    MLMT, I was once you, but it was a better environment to be you. In early 2009 or late 2008, was the first time I read about Gary and it was at The Slope of Hope. At that time, metals had already bottomed and I was watching copper in particular as an indicator for a change of trend (I knew nothing about PM’s whatsoever and even when I saw copper bottom I didn’t believe it). My problem, and it may be yours was Tim also turned me onto EWI. I bought into their bullshit. The problem here is I see relevance to the Elliott Waves, but what is amazing is the folks that are supposed to be most authoritative on them are actually so poor with them.

    Regardless of all that, I signed on for Gary’s commentary, and checked his blog daily. Back then there was only Jayhawk and a few others that came around to post, so my learning curve was tough because it was only natural to believe slick marketing and not someone talking a big bull market I knew nothing about.

    Fast forward to today. My portfolio is up (huge), but better than that, Gary has taught me how to invest (read help my 401k which has no PM’s). You see, that was the missing element. Like you, I would take a short against a bull. A death wish if you will.

    MLMT, there is nobody here that wishes you ill will. We just hope you see the light. Not necessarily Gary’s light if you want to shun that, but that you learn what I have learned from Gary.

    Only invest in Bull Markets and Never Short One!

    Best of Luck.
    Someone Who Has Been There

  138. Paul

    Nice post. I’m a new sub and I thank God I found Gary through Jayhawk at Kitco. My Roth, 403 B, and personal account are all up big thanks to Gary. I sat through the last B wave and almost sold all PM in mid Jan. That’s about when I found this blog and realized the C wave was coming soon. Instead of selling I loaded up on SLW June 30 calls @ 6 and 7 bucks.

  139. TheBookGuy


    Great post. I hope you listen MLMT, I don’t intend that to sound mean or ill intentioned.

    In everything I have gotten good at I have gone through a process. I have read the most publicized stuff, felt I knew everything, was humbled time after time and then started slowly finding the truth.

    That process is getting better as I’ve learned a few years in my short 34 years of existence, but truth seems to take time to learn, but leaves a trail.

  140. Otis


    Agree, nice post. EWI is really a huge disservice to EW. Prechter does a nice job justifying his position, but his investing advice is dangerous. I believe he had people go 150% short when the SPX was at 1120. I feel sorry for anyone who held on through his constant calls for a top just after the next rally. EW is tricky as it seems you can count a corrective ABC, then when it doesn’t work out you can all of the sudden see 5 waves instead. I’ve only found one person who seems to intelligently apply EW, but he uses a lot of indicators and channels to confirm his direction.

    Gary’s service is just what the doctor ordered. Simple, real time, and intelligent entry/exit strategies.

  141. pimaCanyon


    I wrote up a response to your question and when I tried to post, I got a message saying Sorry we’re unable to process your request. The back button gave me a blank comment window. grrrrr! So I lost the comment.

    Quick summary:
    1) I will try to look at larger wave count possibilities this weekend and try to post a chart
    2) Last time I looked I believe that a large wave 3 began at the July low and ended at the November/December high and a wave 4 ended (we hope) at the January low. If so, then the move up from the January low could be the first part of a large wave 5 and the first daily cycle low will likely be wave 2 of 5.
    3) waves 2 and 4 in EW usually do respect channel lines, but the channel is not clearly defined until wave 2 bottoms. So if the up coming daily cycle low is indeed a wave 2 (of 5), then it will likely break the existing TL from the Jan low. After the daily cycle low is in, you should be able to draw the lower channel line off the Jan low and the bottom of that daily cycle low.
    4) If the count I’m looking at is correct, then we’re at the beginning of a large 5th wave. In the stock market, the 3rd wave is usually the strongest, but in commodities the 5th one is often the strongest and can morph into a blowoff top. This fits with Gary’s expectations.

  142. Otis


    Thank you for your response. Can’t wait to see that ending diagonal with the parabolic blow off top!

  143. pimaCanyon

    Note: EW by itself is very hit or miss, but combined with Gary’s cycle analysis and his other tools, it –MAY– add just an extra little bit to the framework of expectations that he has put together. But as you probably know if you’ve tried to use EW in real time, there are usually many ways to count the waves and therefore many possible ways the market can play out.

  144. Jayhawk


    What’s your user name at Kitco? (Gottahaveit?)

    Anyway, glad you are on board & let’s ride this wave for all she’s worth. 🙂


    I’m thinking the same deal here. A quick puke on the dollar to end this daily cycle along with fresh new highs on gold, silver and the miners. I’d love to see the metals flag and consolidate from that point…perhaps finding some support on the break out levels. (except for silver…I want that to just form a high, tight flag)

  145. Shalom Bernanke

    All this concern for MLMT, and he doesn’t have the decency to show up, just because he’s wrong again?

    Well, I just hope MLMT remains an unbeliever and keeps shoveling money in my account as fast as he can. I also hope the S&P stays up long enough that once we’re done with this C-wave in metals, we can short stocks with impunity and put a hurtin’ on Beanie. 🙂

  146. Shalom Bernanke

    Yes, that was the type of action I like to buy. If there was any follow through in the next morning I was buying it.

    This metals bull is now too strong, and even if it slows or pulls back (short term), it is not going to die easily. I’ve only seen a handful of markets trade this well in my entire career, so I’ll buy dips and won’t expect them to last too long, or go too deep.

  147. Shalom Bernanke

    I’ve been waiting, other than nibbles here and there, with probably less than 2% of capital added on tiny trades the last week or two.

    I was hoping for sharper pullbacks, but so far they have not materialized. In any case, I would not even consider selling anything, and continue to look for windows to add.

  148. Steven


    I can’t really tell whether AGQ has been outperforming SLV by more than 2X since we re-entered at the end of January (around $125). It doesn’t seem to have done more than 2X or do I have this wrong. Maybe you can look at this in the weekend report or just let us know. Thx.

  149. Brian

    SB, It really is not a concern, but rather a been there done that. Gary had to virtually strap me to a chair and beat me to my senses. I suspect it will take the same for MLMT.

    The main thing I can say is Gary showed me some very simple things, that unbelievably people such as myself would not accept.

  150. Brian

    I don’t think I will address it again, because if MLMT continues with the same behavior after I poured my heart out he gets what he deserves……..


  151. Natanarchist

    wow..what a run over the last 5 weeks. I added every week in Feb. Big thanks to the daily posters with their junior picks. DG, Jay, Poly, Pima, SB, and the others I am missing. I jumped in on some of those for the kids account and they are off to the races.

    G man…great call on the intermediate low. And while I didn’t get 1307 and 26.50 or so, I did get my first positions close enough.

    To the many new subs…SMT won’t let you down. Whether one is a new or experienced trader/investor, SMT will either guide or enhance your trading/investing for nice gains. That has been my experience. I have been posting here since ’07 and a Sub since ’08.

    Gary..so with all the new subs, maybe a Trackers vacation this summer while the D wave is upon us? Perhaps a mining town..a silver mining town..haha..OR…we all pitch in with our C wave profts and buy a producing silver mine!

  152. jminca

    Hello. I’m a first time poster. Have followed this blog for many months and have been lurking to learn from Gary and this excellent group. I hope to be able to contribute to the group instead of just ‘taking’ as I have been.

    My question relates to the dollar index and its use in determining the direction of PMs. I have seen that the correlation changes. It is not always ‘dollar rise, PM fall’, or ‘dollar fall, PM rise’. Sometimes they both rise or fall together. My understanding is that we are looking for the breakdown of the dollar to propel the PMs into a parabolic rise.

    Looking at a chart of the dollar index from the summer of 08 to present the pattern shows a set or rising lows and slightly declining highs.


    Might we be in a position to get another bounce to near 80 instead of slicing downward thru the rising trendline? I am at 110% of my PM position, 80% of that in silver. If a rise to 80 is likely I’d like to lighten up a bit to maybe 80% of my positions and add again when it begins to drop into the 3 year low.

  153. Cory

    I read these comments everyday, and there are a lot of smart people on this board. I thought I used to be smart too. I started out 8 years ago with options for the leverage, but was killed with time decay when I was wrong, or I would hold too long. Thankfully, I found Gary after the end of 08.

    I don’t think about trading anymore, I only watch the charts for the intermediate cycles to buy more. I started out with 2 million at the end of 08. I’ve been 130-140% in AGQ since then, adding at intermediate cycles. My account just crossed 15 million for the first time. I probably know a tenth of what most of the people on this board do about trading. Within three months I’m expecting to be at 25-30 million.

    Remember, I haven’t done a thing. Learn your lesson now, just sit there like Old Turkey.

  154. sophia

    Thanks Brian for your post. I took a lesson this winter by shorting the stock market while Gary was repeatingly saying not to short a bull market…but I was so sure of myself after I made a killing being long since Mar09 that I forgot that Ben was richer than me….
    Lesson taken, being healing since Feb and having followed Gary’s advice since 1336 in Gold ( I know that I shouldn’t sell on the way up, but I did couple of back and forth quite lucky), I am in a better place now…
    Thanks again for your coaching, I am learning from a great crowd everyday…

  155. Gary

    Let me say this again. Three year cycle lows aren’t about drawing lines on a chart. They are about fundamentals and sentiment.

    The fundamentals were already in place with QE1. QE2 just made it so much worse.

    And sentiment is dead neutral on the dollar right now. A long ways from the complete panic that we will see at the final three year cycle low.

    Now is the time to sit still like Old Turkey.

  156. Gary

    You must have missed the nightly report were I first discussed the summer trackers vacation.

    Tentatively planning a trip to Zermatt, Switzerland. I’ve never climbed the Matterhorn…yet.

  157. Haggerty

    Holy crap Cory,

    I want to be you in the worst way.

    Lets say a subscriber has an account value of 50k as of today, and he just follows the plan, do you think that account would reach a million by the end of this bull market?

  158. jeff

    gary said
    I have to ask has there been any indication at all that Ben is going to raise rates?

    Of course not. The Fed is busy insisting there is no inflation so they can continue to print, print, print.

    The dollar has much much lower to go before we get any kind of meaningful bottom. Sentiment is still dead neutral. We need to reach panic levels before the three year cycle bottoms.

    If you are incapable of visualizing a dollar crisis there is very little chance you will be able to profit from one.

    March 4, 2011 4:55 AM

    plus he might add more.

    but reagan has not come to office
    no supprises.
    i dont think they have a plan to fix anything, they are trying to do a impossible balanceing act that is going to blow up in our face. although they will be fine.

    if we follow gary we will be fine also.

  159. Gary

    If one is a little aggressive with his exposure he ought to be able to turn it into 250,000-500,000 I would think.

    And then the first leg up in the secular bull in stocks should easily put one over a million.

  160. Slumdog


    I saw the same thing, the divergence btw SI and AU. SI went to new highs. AU couldn’t even achieve the Dec high of 1434.10

    I’ve watched many cycles of revisits to prior tops. I posted a few days ago there was typically a back and forth across the prior high, and that’s what has occurred.

    What’s next? We’re still at this major monthly reversal, in the down direction, and we’re moving around the top of the top.

    Obviously SI is there to see, so one would think AU will one day start a strong, unstoppable rise to the 1535-50 target area.

    It will just take time.

    The “fundamental news” will be the excuse for this AU track back and forth to complete.

    This is like the gap filling I’ve commented on previously. The gaps get filled. One I believe just got filled in the past 2 days.

    So, removing myself from wishing one way or another, this is a flip of a coin, but the move will be very large, either way.

    I went flat 3 min before the close, leaving the gambling for the gamblers.

    See y’a Sunday.

  161. Rick

    drsadov – I do not have a target for us silver. I will likely sell when the c-wave tops and I have no idea where that might take us. I do think it has huge potential.

  162. Silverman


    Just to add to your acknowledgments, I’d also like to thank Brian, Bob LH and Alex (A, are you still with us?) for their excellent work on the juniors and for sharing same in real time.

  163. Gary

    Folks I think we all know why people try to pick tops, especially by announcing dire warnings of impending doom.

    These people are only interested in bragging rights. They want to be able to say “I told you so”.

    I learned a long time ago that I told you so doesn’t make you any money. So I stick to sound investing principles.

    Now I certainly won’t be able to win every time. I will have losers just like anyone else. It’s inevitable when the game you play is also being played by millions of others at the same time, and a big chunk of those others are smarter, have better research and are better capitalized than you are.

    What I don’t do is give the “others” any unnecessary advantage over me. And trying to short a bull market is giving your opponent a very big advantage over you.

    If you are in this to make money then you simply do not do stupid things. Why? Because doing something stupid more times than not costs you money.

  164. ALEX


    Thats awesome , and thanks for the shout out.

    I’ve just been away during the days doing other things this past week, and just riding some juniors gains like yourself 🙂
    (EXK and AG and GPL have actually kept close to % gains of AGQ…actually GPL is more like 170% off the Jan bottom, but I got in at $2.50). BUY AXU NOW 😉

    Trying to read the posts at night and not in ‘real time’ is a challenge, since each blog has 200+ posts per day now!! …and I might add all intelligent input and nice to see many new people discussing too!
    I would say its A testament to the appreciation everyone has for the cycle work that Gary shares.

    DG , we’ll miss your real time posts this week too.

  165. Jayhawk


    I’m in absolute awe…INCREDIBLE job. I saw the opportunity too back in 2009 but was new to cycles and it took me time to trust the calls. I wish I would have listened early and often like you. My account would certainly be much higher.

    So to be clear on your strategy. AGQ only, with leverage, buying intermediate bottoms. Do you keep a core and sell the majority at intermediate tops or have you been old turkey since 2008.

    Also, can I borrow a mil? 🙂

    Congtrats. Very impressive.

  166. Jayhawk

    Also, those all in AGQ. Not at all nervous about being in one egg, let alone one basket? If AGQ blows up due to some funky silver default/derivative issue, would not AGQ holders be in potential trouble? (Counter party issues,etc). There does seem to be some interesting shortage issues out there…who knows what is going on behind the scenes.

    I’m a bit more comfortable holding shares of companies in the silver space, but what do I know? I’m certainly a rookie at this myself.

  167. Gary

    I really doubt there will be any shortages. Price is an excellent cure for a supply shortage. I myself will be selling back my shares if and when silver hits $50.

    I suspect the same will happen at the Comex. If silver can make it to $50 there will be an avalanche of silver come back into the market.

    Of course that’s about the time the GATA wacko’s will start crying manipulation again 🙂

  168. Slumdog


    Is it a meaningful divergence to you that silver rose dramatically over the past week and gold could not achieve more than the prior high and a little above it.

    Of course, silver is not near the prior nominal high yet, not even the prior daily high close.

  169. Jayhawk

    Thanks G.

    I’m 30% AGQ, 30% SLW, 40% basket of AG, SVM, EXK, AXU. This basket has worked out well, but I’m thinking of shifting more towards AGQ.

    IRA is 80% AGQ, 20% SLW. This one done well.

  170. Keys

    The only way I could see a Comex collapse is if price, as Gary mentions, can’t cure the problem. This would imply a currency war of some sort…China gets fed up and dumps all its US holdings at once. Basically for a short period of time, if the trust in currency is so low that we get to the point of PMs being priceless, we may see some interesting things in the Comex.

    I don’t see that happening however during this C-Wave, the drop in the USD has been pretty much predictable in its fall and the players like China, Japan, etc have all said that they prefer a gradual fall in the USD. However, the off chance of free fall in the USD(I mean a real free fall Zimbabwe style) is another reason to holding physical pm’s. Not the main reason at all, but I consider it a freebie.

    Now the interesting thing about silver, is that silver has commercial use, which could explain the backwardation. Companies need silver now or they can’t produce some products. If the demand in investment silver increases so much that companies that use silver go into hoard mode, extreme backwardation may exist as hedging techniques may not work. An extreme backwardation condition may be considered a default in silver at a certain point. I mean if we get to the unlikely point where spot costs 30% more than future points, I would consider that a functioning default.

    Something to think about as we test our (at least my) old turkey positions.

  171. Patrick

    I’m looking to add exposure as I’m only 30% invested…should I simply buy Monday to be sure that I don’t miss the major move or wait for the next dip?

  172. n1tro

    wow…with the amount of money that are in people’s account and in play, one must be careful that we are playing each other since most of us are in silver.

  173. jeff


    so to get the swing confermation, do we need a close above the 1436 or just a break through it?

    my broker offten says we need two closes above a number. i never did figure that one out. by the time you got 2 closes above a number, it was always not even close to where he was talking about.

  174. Silverman


    Good to see you’re still following the blog (also that you have another life :). Yes my “juniors” money is in those exact 3 stocks. The gains have been excellent! Thanks for the heads up on AXU.

  175. Nike Boy2008


    Thank you..will keep the target as 91

    was away yesterday and didn’t check the board…

    Did MLMT delete his post(s)? I see a lot of responses to his post but I don’t see his post

  176. Razvan

    to find MLMT’s posts you have to correlate when was the last time gold went down a couple of bucks with the time of the posts and you will find him poking his head here like clockwork.

  177. Poly

    The next bull may start by then, but the best buy will likely be the eventual bottom of this coming bear. Say it takes 2 years to bottom, a 600 S&P in 2013-14 is probably a better buy than 1,550 secular Bull market confirmation in 2017. I would look to at least obtain a “core” in stocks at the bottom, fire sale P/E 7-10’s levels.

  178. David

    Theoretically, the absolute stock market bottom is supposed to come when the Dow/Gold ratio reaches 1:1.

    I.e. 5000 dow, $5000 gold.

    At that point, valuations should be at their absolute low. The bottom of the coming bear will be a good entry point in stocks, but I wouldn’t count on it being the absolute low in inflation-adjusted terms.

    The best analogy would be that you would have done OK buying the ’72-73 bottom after dividends, but you would have been that much better off waiting for the ultimate ’80 bottom, particularly if you were in precious metals.

    I have to say that valuations are already extremely enticing in Japan. But the fact is that the gold bull will probably return much more in the interim, percentage-wise.

    I also don’t think P/E’s are going to reach single digits this bear market. They will next time, though.

  179. Rob

    Does anyone want to guess what kind of return one might get from a USD x2 bull etf between the bounce off of its 3 year cycle low and the beginning of the A wave in gold? I plan on buying that particular etf at the start of gold’s D wave. Or does anyone here have any better ideas where to park some cash as gold’s D wave begins?

  180. jeff


    i was going to do the futures dollar index. i asked gary about that and he simply replyed “that would be a safe play”. later he said he would be shorting whatever was streached the farthest above the 200 day moving average

  181. jeff


    but a guess would be maybe if we got to 72 and ralley to 82 max? i dont really have much idea

    i will go with gary i am sure..
    he is the 400 pound gorilla in the room =)

  182. Rob


    Thanks for your feedback. To be honest, I am an unsophisticated investor, coupled with the fact that I cannot short stocks with my brokerage account…I have to request that application with my broker here in Canada – and because I am inexperienced, shorting stocks might be outside my comfort zone.

    I will keep eyes peeled for Gary’s D-wave picks.

  183. David


    You can short pretty much anything in a dollar spike except treasuries and the yen.

    But buying UUP or a 2x dollar fund is probably better. Better to be long than short if you can, psychologically.

  184. David Kafrick


    If you can trade futures and forex, than instead of trading the Dollar index futures I would trade the Euro/Dollar pair or the Dollar/Yen pair. You can trade these on CME or forex.

    No one trades the dollar index futures, the volume doesn´t come close to the volume on the major dollar pairs, also, what dictates the moves in currencies are the pairs, no the dollar index.

  185. TheBookGuy

    SMT Folks,

    I actually discovered Gary through his Toby Conner’s site. I discovered this blog after subscribing and it is a great tool. I’m like most of you, very blessed to have found this service.

    I’m contemplating selling all or most of my physical metal at the top of this C-wave to use to trade with. Can some of you tell me why you would or would not do this? I thought I’d never contemplate this but I am now, I need to see some different points of view to help me decide.

  186. TheBookGuy

    Can you also show a stop using GLD or some other tool? The account I have will not let me use HUI as a stop because of it’s classification.

  187. jeff


    so when the time came you would look at the chart and see which one is the most extreem?. i think i gotcha.
    ill see what gary is doing and do that

  188. jeff


    get your papers sighned and ready so when gary comes up with a play, you can at least talk to your broker and see if you can get your head wrapped around the idea. if you wait you wont be ready.

  189. jeff

    i have been trying to play the gold since it was 920. got my ass clobbered the first time. so the next few years i have been trading like crazy and not getting anywhere. this play is the first time i am on board with gary. ill be with him as long as he is here. and when he stops ill probably move to vegas within 2 houses of him ( just kidding on the last part… i think =)

  190. David


    You probably don’t even need to apply — you can use short ETF’s to play the short side instead of borrowing shares.

    Unless Gary is planning to short individual stocks instead of sectors, which I doubt.

    Truth is we won’t need to get too cute shorting during the D-wave. If we can make 10 or 20% in UUP that should be plenty.

    The key is not to get burned shorting. The real money will be made during the A-wave.

  191. Rob


    Thanks. You are correct, as I have seen Gary mention that he doesn’t like individual stocks – he concentrates on sectors.

  192. TheBookGuy

    Thank you Gary.

    How would I figure out what HUI 516 is equal to in GDX? I can do the math if you let me know what the formula is. I guess I don’t know how they correlate.

    Thank you again.

  193. n1tro


    I’m in the same situation as you. Have 1000 physical ounces on hand. Wanting to dump it at the C top and accumulate more during the D wave.

  194. jeff

    gary suggested golddealer.com
    they will lock in prices over the phone. call to verify, timming is important

  195. BR

    So in the next 2 months will we see the FINAL gold and silver high or will we see a pullback and yet another high ?

  196. T.J. Rand

    I think it was DG who suggested another solution to physical- buying GLD puts in quantities to cover any physical you hold. You’d probably want to look at deep In-the-money puts with Dec/Jan expiration (or further out, depending on when the D wave starts).

    The problems with hopping in/out of physical are obvious- logistics, shipping costs and purchase/sales premiums.

  197. fubsy_cooter

    You mentioned that you are not allowed to “short”. Its easy now to be short without shorting. You can simply buy an etf that goes up when a particular sector or market goes down. For example you could get long SH, and in effect be short the S&P 500. There are dozens of examples similar to this. WHen the time comes, I’m sure you will get more than enough ideas on this board.

    I typically short the sectors that have been the weakest as I assume their relative weakness will compound during a drop. For example, the transports have been very weak relative to the S&P. If that remains the same through the C-Wave in the PMs, when I short, I will look for vehicles that short transports. I am going to assume that consumer discretionary will also be weak as the consumer gets clobbered by rising oil and drives the next leg down. Tech will likely get slammed as corps tighten their pursestrings with 2008 fresh in their memory, and slow their investments in software, computers, and gadgets for employees. On and on. There will be lots of setups when the time comes. For now, enjoy the ride in the PMs.

  198. jeff


    gary said he was going to short whatever was streached the most over the 200 day moveing average..last time he shorted oil and he said he should have shorted solar ( the solar part might have been a jab at someone) but the idea is that what is streached the most will fall the most

  199. Wes


    Doc, in one of his posts here, implied that the daily cycle low in gold should break a trendline. You know anything about this ?

  200. Gary

    I haven’t actually tested it. But like any tool it will work until it doesn’t. If a runaway move develops then you could wait out the entire move for a trend break when the cycle low actually occurred on one or two down days. I don’t actually try to trade these daily cycles simply because it’s too dangerous to lose one’s position in a powerful momentum run.

    If one does try to trade the wiggles they need to have a backup plan to get back in quickly if the unexpected happens.

  201. Wes

    I wasn’t planning to trade out, but it would be nice to add if you could tell a cycle low had just occurred.

  202. Gary

    I think what I would do would be to treat this like a runaway move whether it is or not and anytime gold dips 30 points buy.

  203. Layne

    I am a new subscriber for Gary and have read what he says about stocks….but…. Gary expects a cyclic downturn in stocks sometime this year. The FAS triple bull ETF will decay in a flat, volatile market and will severly drop in a down market. Why not buy an out-of-the-money put expiring in Jan 2013. A winner in a flat market (time decay over 2 years is managable), but a huge winner when the market drops. Someone please explain to me what is wrong with my thinking here.

  204. Gary

    The premiums are huge in FAS options that far out and the spreads gigantic.

    Remember options are very sophisticated financial instruments and option writers are some of the smartest people in the world. The time decay in your option will more than exceed the decay in FAS in a flat market.

    When the time is right I will find an extremely stretched sector with broken fundamentals and take a very modest short position. And that’s about all I want to do while the D-wave runs it’s course. The really big money will be made riding the next A-wave. So the most important thing to do is not to lose any of one’s C-wave gains.

  205. ALEX

    sometime back,i must have signed up for something “gold Bull”..because I get very bullish emails alerts from him 1 or 2 times a month.

    I just received one and it has a link to your site…I will copy/paste his opening words below…

    Toby has had an excellent record calling this market. I am sending this out because this is what I now also see. It looks like something spectacular is on the immediate horizon. The light bulb in my head usually a 40 wattage suddenly ratcheted up to 100 watts as I realized that the driving force should be a breakdown in the dollar which will accelerate gold and silver. I have written that due to the disappointment in the gold shares during the past 10 years, our propensity will be to sell the shares prematurely. It is at this point in the parabolic cycle that crazy moves occur and we need to be patient.


    He goes on to talk about your accuracy over time 🙂

  206. ALEX

    I think maybe he picked it up on Safehaven? Anyways, its always nice to have other people advertising for you.

    Again, I cant remember why he emails me personally , but he may have a good amount of readers he emails to, so you may get a little more exposure.

    I replied and told him of THIS blog, since he is on your other “toby’ blog , and wont get the same feedback community over there. Maybe he will then direct others here , and you may pick up a few more subs.

    Chuck…are you reading 🙂

  207. RA

    David K,

    Thanks for your ideas on trading forex in a D-wave.

    You had mentioned going long the USD/YEN pair. I am also looking at that and the interest on the YEN is quite low since you have to use margin.

    Can you elaborate further why you think the USD/YEN long trade is better than others?

    The other David mentioned that when the dollar spikes, so will the yen.

    Thanks in advance.

  208. n1tro

    the cost of longing the usd/jpy right now is $0. The yen pays practically 0% interest so one can take a large long position at the C wave top and ride the D wave.

  209. RA


    Thanks. Indeed it was one your posts that pointed me in the path of using forex to invest in silver – 24hr round the clock advantage. So I am currently long XAGUSD as well as AGQ.

    My question to David K is about USDYEN relative strength. If the dollar spikes and the yen also shows strength against other currencies, then the upside for that trade might be limited.

    Might be better to short Euro dollar but with higher interst charges I think.

    Of course there is also the DX futures but liquidity is low apparently.

    Your thoughts?

  210. Keys

    My hunch…which is a strong hunch, for those that will listen of course.

    Don’t sell out of your physical pms. When the crap hits the fan, you don’t want to be holding the bag…anyways, my mild words, but I foresee a strong occurrence happening….

    And the What if scenario makes me want to hold what is precious to my own. Of course, years don’t matter on many blogs. But as an old age turkey that is dying in the heat, my intuition is something that I have not let go of. I can’t let go of the physical, despite my best efforts, and so be it…….I will be the nut case that calls the fact one day, and not today, the physical holding of pms will merit beyond the paper holdings.

    In all regards me pot stays! If others have a pot, I would discourage you from selling it.

  211. Gary

    Almost every rally or decline starts with a divergence. If the move lasts long enough the divergence disappears.

    I suspect more money has been lost trying to trade divergences than shorting bull markets.

  212. David Kafrick

    I share Gary’s views on divergences.

    If you look at important tops and bottoms, a lot of them were preceded by divergences. So one would tend to think that divergences are a good indicator for tops and bottoms. But that is just false. The fact that most tops and bottoms are preceded by divergences does not mean that most divergences precede a top or bottom. In fact, most divergences don’t precede any kind of top or bottom.

  213. Razvan

    going long USD/JPY at the C wave top doesnt make sense to me either. This pair is considered a carry trade which goes up as the market assumes risk. With dollar strength we should see the pair go up but the risk aversion theme will limit its rise.

  214. Gary

    A move above $1436 will complete a swing low but that doesn’t guarantee that gold just put in a cycle bottom.

    I want to see what happens once the dollar bounces out of it’s daily cycle bottom. That will be the best opportunity for gold to correct into a recognizable cycle low.

  215. The Hook

    Gary and David: Your comments on divergences are total nonsense and non-sequiturs.

    Every dollar rally has been preceded by exactly the kind of divergence, not to mention sentiment, that is present today.

  216. traderlady

    Gary, I am a new subscriber and not nearly as yet in silver as much as I want to be. Thank you to Jeff’s question as I am looking to add big time on the next cycle low. I appreciate your thoughts.

  217. Gary


    In July and Aug of 09 there was a huge divergence in dollar momentum. It led to another leg down.

    In Aug and Sept the divergence continued. it led to another leg down.

    In Oct. and Nov. it intensified. Still another leg down.

    Wouldn’t it be nice if one could indicator their way to fortunes? Sadly that’s not the case, although a lot of retail traders fool themselves into thinking so.

    I guess that’s why so many of them go broke.

    I learned a long time ago that I was never going to get a significant edge by just studying charts. Look at how many pure chartists have been able to spot intermediate tops and bottoms. Virtually none. You need different tools to spot major turning points.

  218. David Kafrick

    Hook, consider the following statement:

    Almost every bottom begins with a green candle.

    Does this mean that almost every green candle precedes a bottom? Of course not. The first statement does not lead to the second statement. Same thing with divergences. They happen all the time, so of course you will end up finding divergences near a bottom. g

  219. Gary

    Oh and I forgot to mention that dollar sentiment is dead neutral despite the 98% bears crap that EW would like you to believe.

    Remember EW is only interested in scaring you into buying their service, not in making you money. In real time EW is completely worthless.

  220. The Hook

    I did not have any positive divergence on the dollar in July of 2009.

    Specs are heavily short the dollar too. Although the Market Vane survey of futures traders, which has been around for decades, is only 7% bullish the dollar, I generally ignore surveys in favor of watching real money flows.

    Retail is very bearish the dollar and shorting in the futures market, while somewhat bullish in the interbank FX market.

    This profile is 100% consistent with impending dollar rallies.

    Good luck.

  221. The Hook

    Gary is intentially confusing the difference between additional small downside in time and price, versus the inevitable outcome of a large rally.

    Every time there has been a significant rally under these conditions.

    Chart monkeys try to pick tops and bottoms while investors accumulate cheap assets hoping they make marginal new lows so chart monkeys short and sell more.

    Good luck.

  222. jeff

    Gary thankyou for clarification and patience

    I read the reports and think I get it, but then reading this and that / here and there ( from you, not other places) I get confused on where the priorities are. It’s the nature of a blog and me being new. I’m not saying you aren’t clear , I’m saying thankyou for repeating yourself

  223. Gary

    Well the dollar is due for a minor daily cycle bottom. I doubt that will last more than 3-5 days though. Nothing that would be worth trading.

    I have to ask why would you want to “accumulate” dollar’s? Bernanke is debasing the currency like there’s no tomorrow. At least wait till QE2 ends and the forces of deflation come back. Then the dollar will gain real value. But until the fundamentals change there is no earthly reason to want to accumulate dollars.

  224. The Hook

    There is a combination RSI and MACD divergence right now which is in its fifth month. The last time this happened there was a major, not minor dollar rally.

    The best possible thing for me would be for the dollar to break below its three year trendline of higher lows, down to 74 or 75, so the chart monkeys would eagerly sell and short more.

    Thanks for keeping the masses focused on the next couple days and weeks….

  225. Gary

    Current dollar sentiment is 35% bulls.

    More importantly in my mind was the fact that for almost two years from 06 to 08 sentiment bounced between 30% & 45% as brief daily cycle bottoms and subsequent rallies would relieve the sentiment extremes until the final plunge, which was driven by Bernanke trying to halt the credit and real estate implosion with his printing press, drove sentiment down to 20% in late 07 and again in March of 08.

    If we get a small bounce out of the impending daily cycle low that should inch sentiment back up to 40ish. That should clear the way for the next daily cycle to break through the November low and head down toward the 08 lows of 70.70.

    The fact that Europe is now ready to raise rates while Ben just continues to debase certainly doesn’t help the dollar cause either.

  226. Gary

    LOL we’ve been focused on the big picture three year cycle low for months now.

    We’ve invested based on that fundamental big picture by going long precious metals in the expectation that the final collapse into the three year cycle low will drive the final leg up in golds massive c-wave.

    Maybe you should ask the board how that’s been going for them 🙂

  227. Brian

    The Hook said…
    AS a LT investor, I can make 20% on tax treatment even if the dollar is still trading where it is now, in three months.

    Hook, Gary has prepared most of us to making big money, and we are doing just that. If you are happy with a dollar long for a possible tax write off against your losses have at it.

    Most folks hanging out here are capturing large doses of capital appreciation.

  228. The Hook

    The sentiment measure you are quoting is Sentimentrader’s Public Opinion. The all time record low in that measure is 25% in Q1 2008.

    So you are saying that the measure will go that low while the dollar is 8% higher than the lows of 2008.

    I hope it does.

    But the Market Vane survey has been around since 1964, and Market Vane bullish sentiment is at 7%.

    Either way, you are betting on a “final collapse” on something that is already hated, oversold, and undervalued.

    Even if it works, it is a suckers bet.

    Good luck. I hope it does work so I can buy even cheaper dollars.

  229. W

    Whoa, Gary, spoken like a true competitor. Thanks for tempering “aggressive enough soon enough” with a principaled approach. For almost 40 years I’ve looked for someone to explain why most, if not all, charting tools fail at the worst of times. Don’t know where you got your market training, but the weight lifting and rock climbing must play some role. Which brings me to the point here. While out there on the mountain, watch your ass. There is a growing number of people that enjoy your style, not to mention the profits.

  230. Brian

    The Hook said…

    You are a momentum monkey trying to top tick a hot trade.

    Simple as that.

    Good luck.

    Hook, You are way off base here. I can show you charts Gary posted over a year ago preparing for just exactly what is unfolding with the dollar. Your ignorance of the facts is no cause to use name calling.

  231. Shalom Bernanke

    I don’t even care where the fiat dollar goes, metals are going higher.

    Likewise, if I really believed the dollar was going to rally, I’d buy the dollar, not short metals.

    It’s not like the dollar’s inverse relationship to metals is holding up. While the dollar is down some, metals have screamed higher in a magnified move. Go where the action is, with the highest probability. The fact that TheHook is focused on USD tells me he’s all wet.

  232. Brian

    Mental not to self: Add “The Hook” to the Beanie list of PM topping indicators. Put him just below MLMT for now.

  233. DG

    A new obnoxious troll is born! Why can’t people disagree with Gary in a respectful way? I guess the guys who come on here and disagree are trying to strut their egos. They only impress themselves and muck up the board though. Anyone who calls Gary a “momentum monkey” obviously has no idea about cycles because they—by definition—identify bottoms and momentum plays trends. Oh well. Another guy to ignore who will be right “someday” when the dollar rallies just as Gary said it would.

    And a note about divergences: They are necessary but not sufficient. I use them a lot but you need other tools because of the false positives generated. Trading just off a divergence will kill you.

    David K: RSI and MACD are not useless for the reasons I have stated above. There are an infinite number of ways to misuse technical indicators. That of course does not make them useless, and pointing out times where they were used poorly and failed to work doesn’t show much either. It’s funny how people say “this can’t work” or “that can’t work.” I’m not sure why such broad categorical statements are made. Gary keeps saying you can’t possibly catch a top or bottom, so I have posted quite a lot of trades that did just that over the past year. If a given person on the board can’t do something it doesn’t mean it’s impossible! Forgive me, but that really smacks of arrogance. “If I can’t do it it can’t be done, and, oh, I have never really looked into it, I just know it can’t be done” Silly. O.K.—there’s my Sunday rant before my trip.

  234. Clarkatroid

    gary said

    “Maybe you should ask the board how that’s been going for them :)”

    ive made more money from following gary in the last 6 weeks than i have in 10 years fumbling around on my own

  235. n1tro


    How do you call USD/JPY long a carry trade when it pays $0? AUD/JPY is a carry trade. When the USD bounces out of the 3yr low, everything paired with it will go down. Japanese government actually wants the USD to go up and JPY to go down. They tried to intervene months back for the very result to have it fail a week later.

  236. Gary

    You yourself have pointed out that you only win about 40% of the time. That means 60% of the time you aren’t catching tops and bottoms.

    What you do is very tough to succeed at. I know I couldn’t do it with any success. And I’m guessing it took you 10-20 years to get to were you could succeed 40% of the time.

    It’s just not something I would recommend for either a novice or intermediate trader.

    And even if you get the entry right it’s the exit that makes or loses money. Just spotting a short term turn still doesn’t matter if you hold the trade too long and let it go against you, or even if you place a stop at break even.

    If you lose enough of those potential profits with break even trades then the other 60% that end up losses will overwhelm the few winners.

    The game you play is one that is very very tough to excel at. I suspect that 90% (I’m being generous, it’s probably closer to 99%) of all traders would lose money if they tried to do what you do.

  237. w

    3G continues to propagate high inflation and a collapsing dollar, neither of which have happen nor likely will…

  238. pimaCanyon

    Playing with EW:

    (all you folks you can’t stand EW and/or think it’s the worst of the worst form of TA, please ignore this post. Or as they say, move along, nothing to see here 🙂

    Here’s a chart with one possible (likely of many!) wave count. I’m starting a new large 5 wave impulse at the Feb. 2010 low. (Count prior to that is open to various alternatives, as always…)

    I have the first large wave up topping out in May of 2010, second wave down bottoming in July of 2010, third wave up topping in November, 2010.

    The 4th wave likely bottomed at the January low, but there’s always the possibility of a curve ball and the 4th wave still being in play. That would suck, but if that turns out to be the case, we would see another move down to a low in the vicinity of the January low. Low probability, but not impossible.

    Here’s a screen shot:


  239. pimaCanyon

    Some comments on the count I posted above:

    1) I can come up with lots of alternates! (Which is why EW is much better at labeling the past than providing high probability expectations for the future 🙂
    2) One thing I don’t like about this count is that waves 2 and 4 look very similar and therefore do not satisfy the guideline (“guideline” not “rule”, so doesn’t always have to be satisfied) of alternation.
    3) Another possible count is that the November top (what I have labeled as the end of wave III) could be the top of wave I of III! But that would not fit with Gary’s expectation of this C wave ending in the next two or three months.
    4) If the count I’ve posted turns out to be the one in play, here are some interesting price targets for the top of wave V (the end of what Gary calls the C wave):

    W5=W1: 1513
    w5=w1*1.618: 1640
    w5=w1*2: 1718
    w5=w1*2.618: 1845

    w5=length of w1 and w3 combined: 1689

    w5=w3: 1578
    w5=w3*1.618: 1744
    w5=w3*2: 1847
    w5=sw*2.618: 2013

  240. Gary

    I don’t think W has filled his gas tank or been to the store lately. Or paid an insurance premium or tuition or medical bills.

    And one certainly doesn’t want to compare the value of the dollar against a stable currency like gold or silver if they want to maintain the illusion that the dollar is not collapsing.

  241. pimaCanyon

    I am expecting that the next daily cycle low (if it hasn’t already occurred) will be wave 2 of V, and the daily cycle high prior to that low will mark the top of wave 1 of V.

  242. Razvan

    the interest rate differential is at 0.15% in favor of the USD over the JPY although i do see your point of not being too attractive for players chasing yield. However i am not sure how much of an upside potential we have once USD strength picks up.

    A better play in my opinion is to short a currency which has impaired fundamentals such as the New Zeeland dollar. If you pull up the chart you will see how the USD weakness could push us back up to 0.8000 with little chances of going much higher. Once the D wave arrives this pair could tank back to 0.5000 level. That is a maximum of 35% gain which on a currency pair is insane.
    Waiting on your thoughts!

  243. ike


    I find it confusing that even those who profess to know EW often times admit to be guessing. Please to not get me wrong, I appreciate your posts and find you very knowledgable. If EW works for you, that great.

  244. Bob loves Hawaii

    Reading Hook this morning brought me to memory lane.

    I was a pretty good trader but always misinterpreted the intermediate turns and zigged when I should have zagged using my momentum and MA indicators alone.

    I started following Gary’s blog, I think this is the fifth intermediate move (up and down), and my results have been scary good.

    Like from 18% per year average with a lot of leverage to 68% last year, and on pace, triple digit so far this year.

    I became a sub after the second turn Gary called after I thought he was full of baloney, turned out to be right on, again.

    This cycle stuff is so easy that we want to make it hard, and I keep simplifying my approach to align with Gary’s over time (trade less, more concentration of positions).

    There are other subs on this blog that know me personally, and can attest to the above, and one of them started following Gary this fall and is up nearly 80% from November, on a good size portfolio.

  245. n1tro

    I haven’t looked into the NZD so I can’t comment too much there. If retracement to a recent peak, would not shorting the USD/CAD be a good or better choice? 1.07 is not unconceivable. I just know the when USD/JPY dipped to 79ish prior, it was at a 10 or 15 year low, can’t remember. I’d rather have the wind at my back so speak with Jap gov’t willing to intervene at the 79 level and coupled with Gary’s cycles, it sets up the trade to be low risk.

    But who I am kidding, I’ll probably trade all 3 pairs while waiting for the D bottom out of boredom and accumulating AUD/JPY on the way down!

  246. David

    Unfortunately all the hosannas and testimonials for Gary tend to be a contrary indicator.

    Based on this indicator I expect about 3-5 days of weakness, followed by complaining and doubt a la “flip-flopgate” a month ago, which was an indicator of the move we’ve just had 😉

  247. Rob L.

    Bob loves Hawaii ,

    I am new to cycle analysis, just getting into the market using this technique at the latest low (January 28). I too am shocked at the gain so far yet impressed as hell.

    I told a buddy at work about this. He lost BIG in the crash of ’08 and because of it, he momentum trades…fast. Never in an individual stock for more than a few days. My buddy said, and I quote, “cycle analysis seems too easy.” He will never try it.

    I will continue to follow this trading method as long as the numbers in my account keep increasing.

  248. David Kafrick

    My reasons for buying the USD/JPY sometime this year, are the following:

    1- This pair has been on a downtrend for 35 years, and is making all time lows.

    2- Back in 07 it brokedown out of a huge triangle on a monthly chart. Moves out of a triangle are usually the last leg of the ongoing trend. In a way, triangles are what Gary calls volatility coil, and the first move out of this triangle/coil is usually a terminal move, which quickly reverses and moves in the other direction. So I am expecting this breakdown out of the triangle to actually reverse and begin a much more durable move upwards, exceeding the top of the triangle, which is at 150.

    3- It´s also attempting to breakdown out of a triangle on the daily chart. Bullish, for the same reasons as number 2

    4- I did some cycle analysis on this pair, and since 1978 there seems to be a 5 year cycle(the shortest one being 4 years and 7 months and the largest one being 6 years and 5 months). The last low was made in January of 2005, so we are due for a low anytime now. In all of the previous 5 year cycle lows, the rallies were at least 1 year long.

    5- There also seems to be a 17 year cycle going on. The first low was in 1978, the second one in 1995 so we would be approaching the time for the next 17 year cycle low.

    Here is the chart with the cycles and triangle:


  249. pimaCanyon


    Yes, that’s why I subscribe to Gary’s nightly updates! He’s guessing too, but very very accurate in his “guesses”, whereas EW guesses are indeed guesses.

    I no longer use EW as a primary tool for trading. Sometimes I find it interesting and very occasionally I’ll see something that looks high probability. Even then, I won’t use it all by itself.

    My post was more for those who have a background in EW and might want to consider an EW count for gold in the context of where Gary believes we are in his ABCD wave framework.

  250. Redwine

    Here we come, walkin’
    Down the street.
    We get the funniest looks from
    Ev’ry one we meet.
    Hey, hey, we’re the Monkees
    And people say we monkey around.
    But we’re too busy singing
    To put anybody down.

    We go wherever we want to,
    do what we like to do
    We don’t have time to get restless,
    There’s always something new.
    Hey, hey, we’re the Monkees
    And people say we monkey around.
    But we’re too busy singing
    To put anybody down.

    Hey, hey, we’re the Monkees,
    You never know where we’ll be found.
    so you’d better get ready,
    We may be comin’ to your town.

  251. Brian

    Interesting that most of the copper players are looking at their 3rd down month in a row. Copper itself has 3 doji candlesticks on the monthly chart. Probably not often you see a volatility coil form on a monthly chart.

  252. jeff

    Anybody have a opinion on porter stansberry?
    They have there hooks my buddy
    I’m trying to sell Gary but just needed help

  253. DG

    Gary: Fair enough. Two points, though. 1) I trade too much. Since I have become more focused on PM’s I have been trading less—and my non-PM performance has improved. It’s like the PM positions gets it out of my system so I can just place the best trades. I am now well north of 50% accurate on my short term calls (or at least have been since starting with the PM’s about a year ago 2) Forgive my precision but there is a big difference between “it can’t be done” and “it is very hard to do and very few traders can do it, so don’t waste money on it.” I suppose putting things in absolutes is practical strategy because it really dissuades people form trying something they will probably lose at., and to that extent I suppose it’s a good thing to say, but…

  254. Gary

    I’ve never said it couldn’t be done. That would be ridiculous. There are obviously some people that can day trade or short term trade successfully. I’ve always been very clear on that one.

    My point has always been that it is very tough to make money that way and only elite traders will be able to do it successfully.

    Unless one thinks they are going to be that 1 in 100 trader it’s probably not worth going through the very expensive and time consuming learning curve.

    There are much easier ways to make money that even us dummies can master 🙂

  255. DG

    Jeff: Stansberry is the real deal. If you can get past his arrogance, constantly upselling his products, and his ,and his fringe politics, he is an excellent analyst. I get three newsletters: Gary’s, Sentimentrader, and Stansberry. Stansberry originally found me NLY and SJT on which I have now traded for years and made very good money.

  256. Brian

    It is also amazing how poorly most of the large cap gold miners are trading. I only saw 5 with potential at the moment. GG, IAG, IVN, HMY, RGLD. RGLD has the potential to breakout of a triple top soon. Look at the monthly chart.

    SSRI is very interesting to me as a potential breakout candidate.

    Jay, If we get a pullback I may look at the options here due to the price indications of the pattern.

  257. David Kafrick

    I think that your way of trading is just as tough as any other way, Gary. And very few people will be able to do what you do. You talk as though trading the way you do is easy and anyone can do it. I disagree, if it weren’t for you 95% of your subs would be losing money if you weren’t telling them what to do.

    The fact is: making money in the financial markets is extremely tough, and most people will be net losers, regardless of the method they use. What you are doing is extremely hard and most will fail trying to do what you do, and I mean this as a compliment. You are definitely part of an elite group of people who can extract money from others who are trying to do the same.

  258. Gary

    The only trait one needs in a bull market is patience.

    I just make it a little easier for people to stay on the bull by avoiding at least part of the intermediate degree draw downs…and hopefully all of the D-wave draw down.

  259. Gary

    I tweet as soon as anything gets posted to the website. If you want instant email notification sign up for tweety mail.

    Twitter sign garysavage1

  260. Bob loves Hawaii

    David, I laughed when I saw your post on we will have some weakness, as I am expecting it, as well, and expecting the chorus of boos and I told you so’s. We have six weekly green candles on AGQ in a row. I can see a red candle this week or next, but if people are believing in the squeeze in silver, all these dips will get bought.

    I took off some option triple gains I have, on Friday, and will shed more options this week into strength.

    My last add will be to AGQ, on every meaningful pullback day.

  261. Bob loves Hawaii

    Gary, I am sure you have perused Turd’s site, and today there is a great chart showing the dow priced in silver. What a collapse.

    That is a chart for Beanie to put on his web page.

  262. Shalom Bernanke

    I’ve been to Turd’s site a few times, but found him too excitable and emotional, often confusing time frames in his trading analysis.

    At least he’s long metals or only playing the long side vs. trying to short in front of a steamroller. 🙂

  263. Slumdog

    cyclist, Hammy reports, says 2-3 weeks before the next and possibly final parabolic move.

    This top chop for traders is vicious and costly.

    Swings back and forth across the prior high, with the magnet of 1400 on the bottom and blue sky on the top, above 143x, have now continued for a week, and 2 more weeks would mean blood on the hands of every directional trader.

    One flash crash move here will strengthen gold. The gap that I think was filled, NYPit gap, of course nothing most believe in save the old geezers like me, can be run over again, above 1400, acting as a talking point to lots in the market, raising doubt again as to the rise.

    And then, pow, per Gary, “surprises to the upside”.

    I’ll gnaw my fingers for 1 week and see if I’m right. If not, I’ll be broken hearted. If I am, I’ll take the extra few percent which when trading commodities ain’t a few percent, but more like 25%. Gotta go take a walk. Sigh.

  264. jeff


    ok i guess i am fishing for info.
    here is the better question. what are your related ventures as to smt/gold/markets. i just dont want to be missing anything. other blogs you like and find of value

  265. jeff

    its sooo nice to watch the sellers and buyers fight it out and not be in the middle of it. im watching the depth of market now.

  266. jeff

    ive been waiting on a answer to that also. someone else said the tax rate was 31 percent on futures and 43 on etf’s.. i dont know if that is true or not. i am in the process of finding out. and i want to find out about tradeing overseas.

  267. Wes


    I hesitate to point out the obvious, but it’s not that you can’t pick turns. It’s that you can’t pick turns with enough confidence to wager enough money to really matter.

    Perhaps you really haven’t reviewed Gary’s track record. I have reviewed it in depth. While I made almost 75% last year with no PM trades, it was immediately obvious that I wasn’t even in the same league with Gary.

    So, I capitulated and started investing Gary’s way. And I don’t even believe the inflation and weak dollar themes.

    I simply cannot see why you are not doing the same thing instead of piddling with the trades you make.

    As I’ve said before, I only do this to make money.

  268. n1tro

    l wouldn’t worry about taxes until I cash out. In Canada we are taxed on 50% of my gains. and then its like 37% taxes on that.

  269. Gary

    I don’t have any experience with futures. I suppose I should start.

    For now I’ll just stick with my published portfolio. I don’t need or want the kind of leverage associated with futures anyway. AGQ and a little margin is plenty for me.

  270. Gary

    It is the net long or short value of the commercial traders compared to the last 18 months.

    A net position that is the most bullish in 18 months would register as a 100 and vice versa for bearish.

  271. TZ(5288)

    I can see a $2-3 whipsaw in silver sometime soon. It won’t be a top and it will be bought and resume up, but it will shake plenty of late/loose longs.

    I continue to maintain silver won’t drop below that thursday low on 2/24.

    A buy zone of 32.50-33.50 seems good to me. We might not get there, of course, but any higher is a risk if you are leveraged or can’t stomach a pullback.

  272. cs3283

    Gary, with the dollar blees rating at 90 and commercial net long positions outweighing commercial net shorts since $77, are you looking for a bounce here in the dollar and a correction in pm’s?

  273. Gary

    I am expecting a dollar bounce but not because of the COT Blees level. The dollar futures are worthless as a predictive tool.

    The dollar is due for a daily cycle low soon.

  274. jeff

    for as much as you study and explore ideas , its hard for me to understand why you have not checked into futures. for me, this is the first time i am going to have this problem. paying a shitload of taxes.
    the other thing i need to figure out is when the jackass i work with in the contruction field start the “tax the rich montra”
    i think ill have a few one hundred dollar bills for this purpose. ill shove a hundred at them and ask them if i should stop by once a day or once a week and cough up another one.
    i have always hatted the tax the rich line. my thinking is i want to work for the rich. the average joe like me does not hire me. people like gary hire me =)

    and then the kicker is.. ill tell them to use EW. lol

  275. New York

    Well the physical amounts to a significant portion of my total holdings. I figure I can make better gains with silver which we would expect to rise faster then gold in this final C wave. Plus I could get levered up with AGQ.

  276. Gary

    Well in that case yes you could convert physical gold into either silver or AGQ and get a better return.

    You will also get a much more volatile asset. Are you confident you can handle the volatility?

  277. New York

    Well the physical amounts to a significant portion of my total holdings. I figure I can make better gains with silver which we would expect to rise faster then gold in this final C wave. Plus I could get levered up with AGQ.

  278. Brian

    jeff, since this is the first time you have had to pay taxes, does that by extension mean you were always losing money with your futures trading?

  279. Gary

    I know I will be selling if and when it hits $50. That’s probably too big of a resistance level to get through during this C-wave.

    It would also have silver stretched almost 100% above the 200 DMA.

    I don’t want to hold anything that’s stretched 100% above the mean.

  280. Bill

    Hi Gary,

    I’m way underinvested in silver. To get more onboard, would be best to wait for any $30 hit in gold (as you wrote earlier), or wait until the $USD does it’s dead cat bounce here before declining further? Again, I’m waaaay underinvested, as in “not” invested. Stupid, I know. Pls help.

    On the upside, my squat is way up. 😉


  281. DG

    Wes: Two responses–First I don’t see this as either or. I have over 1/3 of my net worth long PM’s. That’s enough for me ( suspect I’ll wind up at 1/2 though 🙂 If I want to “piddle” with other trades what’s the harm? I have lots of cash. Second, I trade because I love to and always have. It feels like an art form to me. Gary climbs rocks, and that’s not for money. Just because trading has money for a base doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy it. Gary piddles with weightlifting and I piddle with trading. I play poker, chess, backgammon, bridge, etc. and am pretty good at all of them. To me, trading is the best game every invented. What’s the harm? I make money at it pretty consistently so it’s a hobby that actually pays me. And if I make a pile in AGQ at the same time, all to the good.

  282. DG

    Nike: He has good people working for him, so it really depends on what your goal is (specs, income, long-term holdings, etc.) You can trust pretty much whatever he puts out. Pick the one that matches your goals.

  283. Gary

    Mine too. 190 kg last week.

    Regarding silver. I would get something in the morning just so your protected in case this thing goes all the way to $40 before correcting. Then maybe wait and see if a dollar bounce will force a correction in the sector before adding the rest.

  284. rkp


    SLV trades at about 80 cents discount to futures. It could change, but that seems to be the current difference.


  285. DG

    ravi: That’s probably a good way to do it, but I am not quite getting the numbers to work. SLV closed at 34.69. Kitco shows the futures at 35.97 + 30¢. That means the futes closed at 35.67 or about $1.00 over SLV…?

  286. Terrill

    Any suggestions on which fund I should move my annuity funds into? I am all set with PM for my 401 and IRA, but what to do with Annuity funds??? Hope you all can help as I am new to Gary’s site and blog.

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