As long as the rally holds into the close we will finally have the breakout from the huge triangle consolidation we’ve been waiting for. Plus a close above 580.
Breakout
Smart Money Tracker
As long as the rally holds into the close we will finally have the breakout from the huge triangle consolidation we’ve been waiting for. Plus a close above 580.
Gary,
could you show a pic of your medal in tonight’s report?
POLY
I.M.H.O.
Now is O.k. to buy, we are having breakouts on volume.
I got AXU yesterday , exk, svm, all look like AG a few days ago.
Jump in the pool, the waters fine.
I know you said its late in the cycle, but if this goes parabolic, pullbacks could be intraday and minor.
Gary
do you think it is safe to be adding new positions to silver at this time?
Gary,
if the breakout holds into the close, how many days would be left in this cycle?
This comment has been removed by the author.
I am at the airport about to board my plane, so I cant post until late night…
Ride that Bull 🙂
p.s patterns like AXU are cup/handle or flag pattern breakouts and should run well.
everyone buy something to keep the price up for the close! smt effect is a force not to be messed with!
Last comment
PIMA , congrats man…I am still looking at that NG , but AXU I am in.
NIce!
Intern, posted this in the last post in case you missed it…
Most of the subscriptions are $100 annually. I started out with the Resource Report and did quite well on several of the recs (ex. SVM at $3.80 in June 09). Because of this I looked into the alliance lifetime membership which was $5000 at the time. I decided to go ahead and do it and it was well worth it. They have a great refund policy if you are not happy. I would suggest starting off with one or a few of the newsletters to see how you like them. You will get bombarded by advertisements for other products though. I just hit delete and don’t bother with them. It’s a price you pay as they have to market their material to make money. I liked the lifetime membership b/c I have the advisors that I focus on but it has also broadened my investments by teaching me and introducing me to several strategies that I would have never considered or tried on my own.
n1tro
AND don’t sell anything!
w6lz
Test
gobble gobble gobble
Look at the bollinger bands. GLD cross above ? If you see months ago, GLD retrace in these situations ? Shall we worry ?
If one tries hard enough they can always find something to be worried about.
Neo
If this is the breakout we have been waiting for, the price of GLD should tap dance along the top band for a couple more weeks.
Thanks Alex, you’re picking some real winners, I trust you.
I’m already fully invested/leveraged, I’m thinking about the coming cycle low exit strategy.
But first, we should have a good week of sitting back and watching our accounts like up solid green 🙂
William,
Thanks very much for repeating, I did miss it on last post.
SLW is the worst gainer today…it will hopefully make the ground over the next few days
Poly,
I was going to ask you if you have any idea as to when or at what price the current daily cycle might top out, but I see you just posted that we should see a week of upward movement here. So I take it you’re not expecting the daily cycle high to come in in the next couple of days, right?
Based on what the last daily cycle did, we COULD see another week or so. Of course, this daily cycle is not likely to be an exact copy of the last one, so caveat trader. 🙂
Neo,
I like channels. Yeah, the bollinger band is getting hit, however the upper channel on gold futures is way up around 1470 and rising with each passing day. We may NOT tag the upper channel line before a pullback, but seeing it up that high tells me there’s still room to run here.
I just have one question.
How in the hell can gold, silver and miners be rallying like this in a market that is being suppressed by the government?
Silver’s upper channel line is way up in the stratosphere, so I’m not even gonna go there… 🙂
@Gary: lol … exactly
Everything green EXCEPT PSLV!!
Those dam premiums on the NAV.
(AARRRRRRGHHHHHHHH!)
The Chief Suppressor is out ill today.
okay, here’s an interesting intersection of two channels and possible a daily cycle top:
On 4/12 – 4/13, silver’s upper channel line drawn off the 1/28 low intersects the larger channel drawn off the 8/24 low. Price at that intersection is around 43.20.
To extend the rally and celebrate new highs:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJOjTNuuEVw
Pima,
I have NO idea on price.
But we’re on day 16 and we broke to all time high’s on Gold, 30 yr highs in Silver and breakout of HUI. You would have to think probability is fairly high that we get a decent pop this week.
It’s why i recommended yesterday to hold those “speculative April calls” looking for a cycle pop. Unfortunately, there are no certainties.
Looking forward to a fresh Gary report tonight.
Thanks all for your answers.
Gary,
The answer would be.
“…Well we should be rallying more…”
Gary,
Maybe the G’ment IS “trying” to suppress gold & silver. And just like everything else they try to do – they are screwing it up big time.
The NAV’s on the Canadian trusts are INSANE! Seriously.
Dollar finally giving way..
Poly,
They make no sense however you slice it other than the greater fool theory that someone else will pay you the same Nav when you’re ready to sell. Buying physical and storing it is MUCH cheaper but many don’t want to hassles of doing this. And having the physical is more important IMO for many reasons.
Here’s a chart of the channel intersections I was talking about:
(I mistakenly said the smaller channel started at the January low. It doesn’t, it starts at the 3/15 low)
http://screencast.com/t/Swzxj3EDCE
It’s simple Gary. I’ll use a Peter Schiff analogy. It’s like holding a beach ball under water eventually the harder you push down eventually you lose control and the ball comes flying threw the water.
Elad,
No the answer is that if the government is trying to suppress price then it is artificially increasing demand. The big move is a result of suppression not limited by it.
In a true bull market with true fundamental demand anything that artificially depresses price will only speed up the rise not slow it down.
The conspiracy nuts just don’t understand basic economics 101.
If the government is trying to drive price lower then that is the main reason gold is now at $1450 instead of $1000.
They are accelerating the price appreciation with their manipulation efforts not slowing it down.
This comment has been removed by the author.
This comment has been removed by the author.
As an Austrian economist I know has said many times (through SI and through his blog), the gov’t (or any large entity) can manipulate [whatever] but eventually the fundamentals will prevail.
Manipulation isn’t necessarily total suppression of all price appreciation, either.
Regardless, I’m here because it’s a bull market, and IF it’s a bull that’s suppressed by heavy manipulation, then one of these C-waves is going to blow our socks off. Probably not this one, which will be amazing, but the one where the masses pile in, which will be the next, or more likely, the one after that.
p.s. sorry for the deletes…
EXK, nice pop on the rally
did anyone ever answer if it is safe to add new positions now?
If I had to guess, I would say that it is, because we are breaking out, and it’s day 15 of a cycle that lasts 25-30 days, and it’s possible that we will get 7 up days for every 10 trading days…
Gary care to confirm my reasoning?
Msnbc is running a special on how there is a lot of investment demand for Gold, then the commercial for this show says but do YOU realize that people in poor country’s are getting slaughtered for this commodity. I think “they” are trying to paint Gold Red. Coincidence? NO…I think it’s deliberate. That’s just me
Whenever someone asks if it’s a good time to add to positions what they really mean is if I add now will I not get a draw down?
Unfortunately I don’t know what is going to happen tomorrow.
There is still time for more upside in this daily cycle so by that measure one could probably add on the breakout.
The nav for cef is less than 4% under the market. Owning that has been a good experience for quite awhile now.
Is anyone at all worried about the paper market vs. the physical … I’ve asked this question before but never get a reply to it.
If no one replies again I’ll assume you’re all content with paper silver and no worries.
Personally, I’m gonna start to hold 15% of my PM’s in CEF (physical). I know … paranoid … but really there is no downside … instead of making 200% on HZU I’ll only make 180% … sucks don’t it 🙂
Avann
Very worried. If it wasn’t for Gary thinking I’m crazy I would probably have half oF what I have In CEF and Sprotts trusts. When Gary starts to change his tune, that’s when I will make changes.
msnbc…really? Is that for comedic relief?
/GC and /SI and AGQ all just plowed thru upper trend line..pretty, very pretty
PC
you might want to check these charts
link posted by emanuel
an idea on how far this c-wave could go.
i was impressed.
test
Damn the bollingers!
Avann,
NOT in the slightest. Just means we need higher prices to release any pressure. Any other talk is just cheap nonsense, IMO.
Beautiful
Nice to have you back Gary!
so far my account, today, is up 8.4%. Yesterday it was up 7.4%
First time posting. Just wanting to thank Gary and John Townsend who recommended last Fall to sign up with Gary and to thank all you able posters on the blog. I never knew there was a blog until a month or so ago. I can’t help with expertise since I spend a lot of time caring for and planting trees on my land and in volunteering elsewheres so your expertise is helping a lot of others and hopefully you will have fresher air through the trees being planted. Your expertise helps in that my first 10% goes as tithe and the second 10% in earnings or time goes for charity like trees and medical and then the third 10% goes for investing. If there is anybody reading that is not a subscriber I would urge them to subscribe immediately. My wife’s IRA was $300,000 on January 1 and is now $380,000. I’ll try to post a second posting later.
I am amazed by all the questions about SLW. I have been in and out of SLW, especially their warrants, for years and the company has made me a killing but if something is lagging for months, you don’t hold it and pray it catches up. Drop it and move on to something that’s atleast keeping up with the averages.
Eamonn, I know, isn’t it nice to see it all green! I moved about 60k out of GLD into DGP this morning. Looking good 🙂
yabadabbado
pc,
sorry
link was
http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2011/04/fibonacci-gold.html
Fed minutes coming out shortly.
Well good thing you guys got out because the market is about to make new highs…
@TLISGR
why dont you plant some corn plants instead of the trees so we can all have a cheaper grocery bill.
Looking to move some GLD into something else more rewarding… Any ideas out there from you wise folks? Thanks.
Its official, Im excited 🙂
Chris Kimble pulling out charts showing breakouts in gold miners and silver: hopefully, this pulls the masses in further….
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/silvermonthlydailyupdateapr5.gif
This dollar is not pulling back, and since its below 76…just a matter of time before a fed gov speaks…
in john article there is date 23 may 2011.
its same date you get by doing 3142/8 from april 26 2010 top!
also oct 10 2002 low + 3142 = May 17 2011
something is going to happen around those dates!
in the past = 9/17 (day market opened after 9/11) + 3142 = 25 april 2010 (missed by one day.. also actual low was 9/21/2001)
Yash,
We may be ringing our cash registers and booking profits around these dates:)
Hi …at ease, yes, its great to see everything lighting up green. I took a risk a bought a lot of AG, and it has done well so far. I will be watching Gary’s reports, however, to pull out of it when the cycle high is done. I reckon AG would be very nasty when it pulls back. Maybe I will be wrong
Yash
LOL…understood that perfectly…ya got another seat on that spaceship?
@Razvan
yep! growing corn would help us all out by lowering prices and give me a lot more money since I mostly plant redwoods which are “just for pretty” and not for the money. But most of the corn is not organic in that it is gmo and I only do organic.
the redwoods cost me 65 cents apiece for a thousand and I’m not very good at growing stuff in that I ordered 5,000 and now have about 1,100 that didn’t die, but they are 20 and 30 feet high already after 6 years of work.
TLISGR, I love so much the countryside and wildlife. I have some damp, acid soil I intend planting (in Ireland). I might drain the soil first
Eamonn,
Wanna trade some time in Ireland for North Carolina? Love to go sometime. Of course like every American it seems I’m Irish and never been over to check it out.
Kevin, I will go anywhere I can hear the sound of flowing water, the birds, and the wind
It looks like the silver futures are really being capped by the upper BB which I have at 39.26…keeping in mind that the BB is moving up so it should be higher tomorrow.
Guys
There is another fund out there that trades just like AGQ, but I think out starts with a g, does anyone know it?
Looks like GPL is still being held back by it’s large share offering at 4.20. Are folks still holding this? Is it time to dump it? All thoughts appreciated.
In classic 1984 newspeak, front page headline from Yahoo Finance:
“Bernanke: There Is No Inflation (and If There Were, We Could Stop It)”
hahahahahahaha
Notgreedisgood,
I bought some AEM and GG calls when gold popped over 1448 this morning. I had no exposure to gold as I am all in on silver. Gold and gold miners have really lagged and I saw esp. GG looking like it was ready to break out. Both positions moved up over 20% as gold moved over 1450. If gold goes to $1650ish these should run nicely.
Also, thanks for the tip on NG Alex. I checked it out and decided to roll into a few $14 May calls.
Well, does anybody still think silver is going to re-test $38 on a gap fill?
@PimaCanyon
in ToS what study are you using to generate your silver channels?
@Eamonn
if you take up Kevin’s offer for a trade and go to North Carolina you might want to visit San Francisco and there is a beautiful redwood grove there called Muir Woods. Nearby in Sonoma County there is Armstrong Grove and up north near Eureka there is the Avenue of the Giants. Then when you come back in 30 years with your grandkids you can visit my little grove. Redwoods like the moist and fog. You might want to check and see if anybody in Ireland has grown redwoods. My wife’s sister in NW England loves my persimmons and has tried growing a tree over there but it hasn’t yielded fruit as of yet.
Anybody bought NSM here 🙂 70%
just joking
TLISGR
i didnt know corn was gmo but it makes sense if i think about it because it taste terrible. Growing up in Europe i had the natural stuff that you need to boil for 2 hours in order to be able to eat and it had so much flavor.
Catbird,
What day did you get the gap for silver at $38? Are you talking about a gap in SLV on the NYSE (that doesn’t open until 9:30) or COMEX spot? The other day when you raised this, COMEX spot opened flat and ran up over $38 in the overnight market, no gap there.
Hmmm…..Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian both say we have inflation and they have given up on US treasuries, Jim Rogers and Mark Faber have been ringing the inflation bell for well over a year, China is raising rates for the 4th time to combat inflation, Europe is most likely raising rates……and Bernanke is still holding firm in the no inflation camp…..I wonder who will be proved wrong???? And I wonder who will suffer because of it?????
Silverman,
I’m out of GPL. Picked alittle bit up last wk after the 2ndry. Got stopped out this morning on violation of 10d MA. Still has the weight of the secondary on it. Which could lift @ anytime. It hit my stop so I was out.
Can anyone recommend a good RYDEX fund for a 401k (only option)? They have RYPMX, which is the metals one (FCX, ABX, SLW, NEM, GG, AEM, AUY) but it only has 1 or 2 morningstars.
Thanks in advance.
guy,
yeah, that link goes to a great post! Someone posted it yesterday (was it you?)
The prices I mentioned in earlier posts today were more aimed at MAYBE being in the ballpark of where price might be at the top of THIS daily cycle. From the looks of it, this daily cycle will not mark the top of this C wave, so I would expect another daily cycle to follow which could send prices to where the TSI Trader is expecting.
TLISGR
I had my doubts that anyone ever tried to grow Redwoods in Ireland, but apparently some people have. Not much luck though.
http://www.gardenplansireland.com/forum/about1342.html
Regards,
Le Fou
In @ 1455 GC, 45.33 SLW, 38.29 SLV
gdxj 52 week high is 44 (yahoo) or 42 (stockCharts.com), which is correct?
Beautiful day. If you like money, stay long those miners. NUGT up over 9% alone!
Le Fou’s barbacoa sounds delightful. 🙂
MLMT is still trying to scoop up pennies while the rest of us trip over 100 dollar bills.
And there goes the dollar…
Somebody asked about MVG. I think they have the answer now.
Hey folks, new guy here… Wanna get out of GLD, want a better return. Got some AG this morning, also some more AGQ. NUGT? A gold miner ready to pop?
Eamonn-
I second TLISGR’s suggestion of Muir Woods…a primeval forest like that is beyond description…
Thank you TLISGR. I really love trees
Kevin, UGL is the AGQ for gold, if that interets you.
Catbird,
Silver @ $38 might, although unlikely, get tested during this current cycle low, IMO.
Thank you T.J. Rand. I would like to see Montana
Eamonn, we’ve got nice rocky rivers and trees and all kinds of wonderful parks. There are all kinds of great places in Western North Carolina, and East Tennessee (where I was born). There’s a reason all those Irish immigrants set up farms there… 😉
HUI looking to break it 52 week high.
A nice day to be in the market.
$HUI up 27 points!!!!
Never doubt those miners ability to soar. I’m almost exclusively in the metal, but glad many are getting a big pop with miners today.
GDXJ taking SIL to the mat
Kevin, sounds nice. I hate hot weather though. My skin does not tan, at all! Typical north european skin. coo temperate climate suits me best !
Wow even GDX is doing better than SIL
SB,
I love Barbacoa’s. Eat there at least twice a week, and I have been known to eat there twice a day.
Kevin,
AG, AGQ and EXK are the best in my view. SVM, AXU, SLW, GORO, RVMID have all been recommended here lately.
Best,
Le Fou
Best,
Le Fou
guy,
Thanks for posting those charts from the tsittrader, those targets would be very welcome.
Thanks Aaron… Traded it out. I’m in AG but kinda leery about investing in miners I don’t know, and not real sure I understand NUGT. How do you all do your due dilligence with those miners? I can only assume many of you know and trust each others’ independent research?
Sorry if I ask a ton of questions.. love to learn and want to retire someday. Thanks.
T,
Not using a study. Channel is one of the drawings that are available.
On the lower left of TOS chart screen I have a little box that shows the current selected drawing. If you click on that a menu of drawing comes up and you can select the channel. Then just play with it. You mark two points on one of the channel lines you want to draw, and then a point on the other line.
In a rising market, my primary line is the bottom channel line, drawn off at least two lows. The top channel is just a parallel line to the bottom that goes thru the highest high it can go thru (sometimes it will tag two or more highs).
In in declining market, you would want to use a succession of lower highs for your primary channel line and draw the secondary line parallel to it of the lows.
Just play with it and you’ll get it.
You can also click on the drawings pulldown at the top right of the screen and select channel there.
Thanks Le Fou!
Kevin, If they make you nervous, you should stick with the etf’s. GDXJ, SIL, and maybe NUGT.
For those trading stocks, this is a very useful tool I use, and its free http://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/top100
Eamonn, it depends on where you live. Lots of climate change in a hundred miles or less in the Appalachians… I live in Charlotte, where it’s typical southern US weather, over 100F in the summer sometimes, ice in winter but rarely snow. My parents live in the mountains (Southwest Virginia) and I love to visit in July. It hardly ever gets above 85F on the hottest day… Farms and fields and rivers and lakes and fish and cows. In the winter, you need a 4WD and it gets windy and around zero (F) sometimes, but very beautiful in autumn especially. I’m sure you’re used to inclement weather tho in Ireland. Anyway, gotta get a word in for my neck of the woods!
TK noticed the bullish breakout in miners. 🙂
http://slopeofhope.com/2011/04/bullish-breakout-by-miners.html
Le Fou
Kevin,
Lots of good names get mentioned here all the time. Since individual names pop up or drop off the best performing list each day, it might be best to go the etf route.
I expect metals will continue higher, but have my money on the miners this round. Etf, or a basket of 5-6 miners is the way to go for the rest of this C-wave, IMO.
Kevin,
Gary already outlines a very simple and aggressive portfolio that has really outperformed. Just follow it.
MLMT,
Welcome aboard.
Good luck!
Thanks Brian…
Kevin, try UGL, I bought some yesterday. Also added DGP today out of GLD.
Kevin-
Poly offers great advice. Because I have not put the time into due diligence of junior miners, I’m sticking with Gary’s portfolio.
I am expanding my research though, so the next C Wave I can work with individual Juniors as well.
at ease, Why do you buy 2 securities that do the same thing?
NG just at 50 MA, check volume!
Eamonn,
Thanks for the link! I like it. I’ve bookmarked it.
what the heck?
massive bullishness
intraday reversal imminent, still looking good though long term though.
c’mon 1485!
Where’s MLMT at?
For those Interested, Eric Sprott on cnbc at 315
Gary, would you reconsider just not commenting on the stock market? It might save a few some bucks down the road.
I know you have thought about it before, and I do understand there are some that are struck in stocks, but how about reversing the layout of the nightly and weekly reports and have the dollar/gold/miners at the top, and stocks at the bottom?
Thanks, and you’re the man for you weightlifting accomplishments.
ugl & dgp have no Volume
Thanks all. I think I got confused reading the posts out of order on the main site. Is Gary’s 26 March portfolio the one that’s in play right now?
pimaCanyon, this is good if you want to go shorting http://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/bottom100
Catbird,
Silver might not retest $38 until the D-wave. I would lean on that versus it retracing this cycle. We’ll see.
I actually know what’s going to happen to the metals and oil exactly this summer but I can’t tell. 🙂
I’ve sworn to secrecy to myself. 🙂
Kevin,
Gary publishes his portfolio at bottom of every weekend report. He does not make frequent changes usually. he tries to trade only intermediate cycles.
Eamonn,
Thanks for that link. Interesting site.
Eamonn, Thanks for the link, cool. Have you found this useful for trading or investing?
I would stay away from shorting everything while the dollar is in collapse. People who think otherwise need their heads examined, or to get a different subscription service.
…at ease, I used that site to pick stocks when the bull was in full swing. Worked well. You can customise views to include market capitalisation and volume, and sort the stocks by column. I tried to pick stocks with high volume and high market capitalisation.
Down to 6x leverage due to recent gains. There will be more adding opportunities in future (on pullbacks) where I will continue increasing (always with small stops).
Minimally we should have at least another month or so of this kind of action before a peak.
Does any one know the significance of the high of the day, 62.59 on GDX?
I will tell you after the close.
This is clearly a ‘recognition’ day with plenty of panic buying. We should close a the highs and it should continue at least partially into tomorrow. Thurs will probably be a pause and then Fri goes out at the highs.
TZ,
You a billionaire yet?
Eamonn, I will play with it, Thanks! Love new ways to get views of things. Thanks 🙂
Interesting fact from a Wall Street Journal article written by Stephen Moore on April 1st.
“More Americans work for the government than work in construction, farming, fishing, forestry, manufacturing, mining and utilities combined. We have moved decisively from a nation of makers to a nation of takers. Nearly half of the $2.2 trillion cost of state and local governments is the $1 trillion-a-year tab for pay and benefits of state and local employees.”
I’m hoping this was an April fools joke.
MLMT,
You fight the trend like that famous martial artist used to stand in the ocean and try and fight the power of the waves.
William… nope
MLMT,
What’s the significance of the DXY currently sitting at 75.87?
>What’s the significance of the DXY currently sitting at 75.87?
Hillarious!
@pimaCanyon
Thanks!
Anyone have an idea of why Great Panther (GPL) is dogging along, when almost everything else is way up?
What’s the significance of the “significance” MLMT is about to bestow upon us?
I can’t wait…..
MLMT,
Comments like that give me the sense that you’re still running behind the bus. Hope I’m wrong.
Two more days like this and Gold will be above 1500. For some reason feels so far away but It could be by the end of the week
Silverman, He isn’t running behind it. He is laying in the road right in front of it.
when permabear MLMT was talking a month ago about going long metals i knew we were headed for big trouble. Now that he still maintains his bearish bias i am more at ease.
we already did 62.70 !!
62.73 is hight till now
The stage is set. Money is coming out of everything, stocks, bonds, and even other commodities, finding it’s way into metals and miners.
so would it be foolish to buy a few AGQ ITM calls for this next leg?
Shalom Bernanke, may I ask: how do you know money is coming out of everything, stocks, bonds, and even other commodities, finding it’s way into metals and miners ?
Miners and metals strong coming into the close. High fives all around.
U.S. dollar slipped slightly, giving gold and silver prices a bounce. Technical trading also helped as buy orders were triggered that forced traders to buy at previously appointed levels.
Any chance there is another competion for Gary to go win….I really like the pin action off his victories.
Eamonn,
What else do you see smashing into new highs? Even the typical inverse relationship b/t bonds and stocks is not holding up. I’m referring to 30 yr futures (ZB), ES, NQ, and stocks have been slipping lower all afternoon.
If I were in bonds or the S&P, I’d want in on the action we’re enjoying. No place left to go. 🙂
Avaan/Haggerty:
A friend of mine just happened to ask what I know about CEF and I’d recalled that you mentioned it earlier. He’s interested in physical but was questioning why CEF wasn’t making the same gains as SIL/SLV. Do you have any thoughts I can pass on?
Thanks in advance
Anyone have an idea of why Great Panther (GPL) is dogging along, when almost everything else is way up?
OK, thank you Shalom Bernanke, I am a novice investor really :o)
AG and EXK killed it today. GPL, not so much.
ALEX, great call on NG. Well done!
Did my part for end of day. smacked another 100oz of gold. that tiny blip on the charts was me!
And until recently, most of the days metals have rocketed we’d see the same activity in the agriculture commods, meaning they competed for investable funds.
That might have run it’s course. We’ll see, but there is no stronger bull market than when it’s the only game in town.
Hot Rod,
Sorry for the delayed reply.
I was talking about SLV. Although I know silver itself trades overnight, many here have observed a habit SLV has of closing morning gaps up.
What a wonderful day!!!
If tomorrow is a repeat, I’ll eat my shorts…
Like a magnet SB, like a magnet.
SanDiego Jack,
GPL announced a huge secondary offering a week or so ago at 4.20. Not sure what else is going on.
Yes, NG was a dandy. Like ANV, I like to see NG join in the fun. I don’t know why this happens, but I’ve noticed these two names often lead bigger moves in the sector.
The last jump we had was the only exception with NG, where it languished, so it’s good to see it get in gear. I made a similar comment about ANV a couple days ago.
San Diego Jack:
CTL + F: GPL
You’ll find your answer.
This is a noobie question to all, so please don’t gasp is disgust: how can I view on a chart the typical inverse relationship b/t bonds and stocks, while on the same chart looking at the performance of other commodities? Thanks…
T
hope you don’t have beans for dinner
SB,
To be fair ,my EDC holding did better than AGQ last 5 days until today..
wmp
CEF is a closed end fund(meaning there is only a certain amount of shares that are on the market to buy) It is just as good as buying physical I believe. I think 98% of the fund is held in gold and silver bullion.
You got that right, Low Tax!
Congratulations to those that had the fortitude to hang in a few weeks ago when they were shaken up. Your payday is on the horizon. 🙂
Picked up some NG near the close, crossed the 50 MA, nice volume
Brian,
@MLMT LOL
ao92000,
That’s exactly my point. People in such things that have worked but are tiring will look to make adjustments.
Where do you think that money will go? Where are you thinking of putting yours? 🙂
Wmp also
When I first found this bull market in 2008ish and I opened an account with Europacific (Peter Schiffs firm) I only wanted to go in to physical. and that was one of the options that they recommended. They also recommended the Perth mint. I would recommend Goldmoney.com. It really is reasonable storage rates and is run by James Turk who is very reputable.
wmp
There are several reasons cef dosen’t track sil/slv. cef is a mix of gold and silver (about 50/50 dollar amounts). It has no miner component (ref. sil). It typically lags direct market action and it’s price bounces (down and up) if they issue stock to expand holdings. Comparing it to a, currently, hot pure silver play is the problem.
Brian,
I was hesitant to do the control function, thinking you may have lead me down the path to reformatting my hard drive.
But alas, I learn something new! Thanks.
Great, so GPL dilutes their shares, and we are left holding an empty bag. See how it performs tomorrow, and bail if it stalls again.
The Gold breakout today is far more significant that is given credit.
First it’s confirming the current cycle is going to be RT. It’s new highs for the Int cycle and obviously all time highs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p18692707287&a=230354038
But more importantly, it’s breaking 5 month overhead resistance that dates back to Nov 8th 2010.
Just checked Bloomberg and this headline was one of the top stories:
“U.S. Stocks Erase Gains Amid Concern Fed to Withdraw Stimulus”
These people are about as smart as two rocks. And that may be insulting to the rocks.
Come on, you watched the S&P fall 5 points back down the level it opened while gold and silver jolted higher and the dollar gave back all the early morning gains. Can someone please help these poor journalists out here. This is pathetic.
On the other hand Bernanke’s Bloomberg pen name could be Michael P Regan. If it is nice try Bennie it didnt work.
Shalom,
Haven’t you had your eye on NUGT for a long time?
I nibbled on some at the close because I suspect you may be right about miners outpacing metals for the “blow off” phase of this wave.
If the outperformance trend lasts much longer I may sell half my AGQ and put it in NUGT.
AG looks wonderful but the thought of some mine flooding or a strike means I won’t commit significant capital in it.
One thing for sure, somebody is buying the miners. And since most here are already loaded the purchases didn’t come from us.
It’s funny that people will continue buying a stock that just decided to dilute and the buyers don’t even know about it.
Shows how much research people put into selecting individual miners.
First leg of the C-wave I owned a bunch of individual miners and was touting hard AG, EXK, AXU, and GPL. This was when AG was $10, EXK like $5, AXU like $7, and GPL like $2. DId you guys listen to me or did you come up with them on your own?
Anyways for whatever reason SIL is under-performing them but I feel much better holding it versus a basket of ind. miners. My account is much simpler now with three holdings, versus 10 or 12 before. Waves are much easier to ride when you have one board instead of 4.
SIL also seems to catch up at the end of the waves, overall I don’t expect it to underperform too much.
I feel bad for HL owners too. Management treats shareholders like dog poop. And the hedgies LOVE Hecla! lol. Stay far away from anything the hedgies orgasm over.
Even if we were a billion in buys together that’s still nothing in the scheme of the global markets.
You know when all the trillions of pensions comes into the miners, GLD, and SLV that the game is up. Don’t anticipate that will happen for a few years now.
It’s funny how its public that pension managers are getting paid off by companies and hedge funds to buy their stocks/holdings and everyone still turns a blind eye.
Now that gold is at all time highs and miners have broken out, I am definitely one happy camper. I really have to thank Gary and everyone here that has helped me not only ride this bull but more importantly learn to add into strength. If it wasn’t for the people here, I would have either sold out for a tiny profit or got shaken out a long time ago. A big thanks to everyone!
Eaten, some of us were holding GPL when they made the announcement. Still up 10% so it’s ok.
Ryan, Well said as I feel the same as a new subs.:)
Poly,
I agree the breakout is very significant and that it came with volume makes it more so. & now when the cycle high comes in the nxt week or two we have a point of reference on the pullback to the daily cycle low.
I’m trying to decide if I want to mess around w/ my portfolio & try to time the daily cycle high by selling some calls or lightening up on some leverage when we get a swing high in the timing band for daily cycle high. But I’m worried it could be shallow dip. Have you or anybody else any thoughts?
No yeah, this is Robert from back in the day, I just remember Jayhawk and I talking and agreeing specifically about the major prospects in AG, and EXK, and then I figured out that GPL was the play that inflation.us was giving to its customers for $1000 donation. This was when it was $1.2 is when they all started buying. I knew nothing about the company but knew it was a big momentum play.
I don’t care to take credit for any of those picks they were on many of your radars for awhile I’m sure but I just remember Jay and I talking about how great they were, and now everyday everyone is raving about them.
Very glad to see how well everyone is doing!
Poly,
Good chart. Added another indicator, Chaikin Money Flow, and it looks like GLD has strength and will move much higher.
Sure was bummed last week over movement, but much relieved this week.
Wing
Only with play money or money you have not invested yet. You cant sell any significant portion of your portfolio hoping to catch a pullback. Just ride the wave until it’s over pal. that’s what I have learned
Wing your far better off holding. To each their own though.
My only concern is what if there is no D-wave?
If we rocket until end of this month or even May, June or July, and then we experience a D-wave with an A-wave into the Spring, is there any possible way the next C-wave could be as soon as fall 2012?
I won’t go into why I believe that but I’m just trying to assess the likelihood of that happening or not happening.
Alright now that we’re all in. Have all your buddies jump on the ship everyone. Otay? :).
We really actually don’t need to worry about that b/c for sure the MSM will do a very good job getting everyone on at this next top.
MLMT did something cute in case you guys didnt’ notice. He didn’t specify if he was going long or short.
🙂
Catbird,
Take a look at this article if want to know more about AG:
First Majestic: Silver Miner With the Most Shine
http://seekingalpha.com/article/259013-first-majestic-silver-miner-with-the-most-shine
Best,
Le Fou
Don’t worry there will be a D-wave. Anything that gets extremely stretched above the mean will suffer a violent regression to the mean profit taking event.
Often retail traders get caught in these because they let their emotions take over the decision making process.
Just like emotions are a killer at bottoms so too are they at tops.
Everyone needs to be prepared to sell everything sometime in the next month or so. We will not be riding any D-wave and giving back all these gains.
Hi Gary,
Are we still looking for the the top end of this month/first week of may?
if you feel that this is information not to be presented in the public blog, please mention it in the nightly report
Thank you
Gary will you refresh us again in one of these nightly reports on the ways you are using to spot a C-wave top?
I haven’t hit a C-wave top with you yet as a subscriber?
How about the question of whether its possible to get another C-wave in around 1.5 years from now, fall of 2012, does this have a chance?
Thanks buff man,
-Robert
Eaten,
Are you putting in your reservations for the next C-wave already?
If so, I’d like an order as well. Make it a double and I’d like it this fall. Next year just won’t do.
>You a billionaire yet?
Interesting side thought:
By listening to people talk on this blog over time I estimate that the total net worth of all people following gary is 100-200 million.
A rough guess of course and maybe completely wrong. But I pondered it one night and that’s what I came up with.
Folks this has been a massive C-wave. It’s lasted over 2 years.
Resign yourself to the fact that once this is over it’s going to be a long time before the next one starts.
Probably three years at the next three year cycle low would be my best guess.
Something this huge is going to take a long time to consolidate.
Gary alone is worth more than that 😉
@WingWalker,
“For me only”, I’m going to attempt to time a daily cycle top to reduce some leverage (around 20% of position) and prepare for possibly a final daily cycle blowoff. So I’m looking to put some of the big gains earned over the last year at risk and get fairly aggressive at a cycle bottom.
he rest of the (80%) position is just sitting old turkey to the D-Wave call gary will make.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p18692707287&a=230354038
Hippie,
I have some intel that says this may be the timing. I’m just wondering what the odds are that this is possible in terms of Gary’s analysis. Time-lines do change though and I may not get any more intel from what I’ve already been told which was a few months ago.
Gary,
How much confidence do you have in getting us on and riding the A wave?
A Waves look almost as parabolic as the final few cycles of a C-Wave, only they come right off the back off a MASSIVE D-Wave. Takes some kahoonahs to get in at that bottom.
🙂
>You a billionaire yet?
PPS: my guess isn’t based on the value of my tiny stash, but I do appreciate the commplement.
Although I do think Robert is a billionaire 🙂
Gary,
What if the dollar dies and we use a different currency down the road? Are 3-year cycle analysis’ going to be possible?
Or are we just going to use a currency that is worth less and less every few months? It’s lost 97% of its purchasing power since its beginnings, it is on the path to death.
It might still be called the dollar but I think at least it will get reweighed versus other currencies, don’t you think?
Some of you know more about this than I do, and please chime in.
Haggerty/W:
Thanks for your responses about CEF!
Le Fou,
Thanks for sharing. Great article, like something you would pay for.
AG is awesome, no doubt, and if AGQ and NUGT weren’t options I would have most of my capital in AG and SLW.
What keeps me in the ETFs is the chance, however, slight of some freak exogenous event that hits their operations and causes a big sell-off.
With the aforementioned ETFs I am protected from that.
Gary,
Thanks for the guidance. Okay, so you get us out before the correction. What I’d like to know is will you give us direction so that we can profit on the downslide too?
Sure like to load up on some puts, or go with GLL.
Anyone else show SIL down 2.79% in afterhours?
TZ … yes I did notice MLMT and was gonna ask and then I thought who cares?
Re the 100 – 200 million … I put it closer to 500 million.
And I was wondering if we all exited at the same time what kind of effect it would have on the market?
>TZ … yes I did notice MLMT and was gonna ask and then I thought who cares?
Whether MLMT when long or short doesn’t matter cause he is still screwing up either way
🙂
Maybe that is a bit mean, but if he went long he is chasing when most of us were clearly in and waiting for a breakout.
If he went short, then he’s missing out on what is going on in the world.
Either way – bad trade.
The whole f’n world is at new highs. At least our world!!
Nice day.
I made 7.4% yesterday on my portfolio, 10.12% today. I am pleased :oD
Eaten,
I see SIL @ 29.16.
Actually, that should have been 10.76%. Its gone up again :oD
Poly,
Will you post when you do see a daily cycle top. I’m contemplating the same move.
@ Poly
That’s how I discovered Gary. He was shouting about Gold being a major buy at the bottom of the last D-Wave. Tim Knight posted about it. So I read Gary’s blog, bought some gold and watched in amazement as it took off seventy points the next day. I thought, this guy may have something going on so I lurked here for a couple months before realizing Gary was for real. Been a sub ever since.
Looking forward to the D-wave and A-Wave. The D-Wave b/c I know I won;t have anything in the metals and will licking my chops at the increasing values that are coming, and b/c I will be short treasuries which are going to get clobbered. And the A-wave…well b/c we get to start all over again with strong hand status and old turkey stodginess.
Hope it doesn’t spell the end of the world, though.
Damn!
I knew it!
Middle to late May!
I’ll be traveling in France.
I guess I’ll have to take my laptop.
Poop,
Le Fou
This comment has been removed by the author.
Le Fou,
All you need to do is go to an internet cafe one time and liquidate everything. Just check weekend reports and then check for Gary’s confirmation and you’ll then get out near the top.
Then from there go to the nearest bar, and buy it.
Up 100% on my AG position. Man oh man. :O
Traderlady,
Thanks. Just didn’t make any sense what Yahoo was displaying, when SLW is up in afterhours and is one of its main components.
apart from gary abcd waves and tony c oew counts there is something called 8-11 yrs cycles in gold from 1960.
the bottoms comes 8 yrs apart which even gary mentions and top comes after 11 yrs of previous bottom.
now we have double bottom in 2000 and 2001 so adding 11 yrs makes it 2011 or 2012. so not sure if top of this C wave in 2011 is going to major top or next A wave top in 2012 is going to be major top. Gary says A wave will come up almost upto previous top but not go above that but if comes close to previous top then that may be major top in 2012 as then B wave and intial part of C wave will be long consolidation. So my point is I think it will be wise to go in even little early before the bottom of D wave as next A wave will bring us to almost top again.
@Wav_Ridh,
Will try, collectively we will get close.
@Fubsy – Great story, thanks. I’ve been with Gary for a year, we all know how profitable that has been.
Jayhawk owes us all drinks at the next meeting for getting on AG first.
You agreed to this before don’t you remember Jay? You said if AG goes to the moon the whole night is on me.
Alex, Hope you and misses made it home safe. NG was on my watch also
so I entered end of day with the volume. I appreciate your input always. Those White Mountains are something. Have climbed Chocorua many times as I was from so. ME. Love the fall foliage:)
le fou,
i’m in france too, but not till june.
hope townsend is right with the end of may climax.
where do u go to?
That’s a good reminder Yash, thanks.
Significance of 62.59 on GDX is this:
62.99 was the high after the big dump on Dec 7th. Adjusted for dividend, 62.59 was the high after the big down day.
Close above that level today is bullish. Close below that would have been bearish.. So, GDX close is bullish and I expect more upside in days to come.
You guys who keep talking about ‘traveling’ and wondering how you will trade or keep up with the markets crack me up.
Silver eater,
Thanks for the reassurance. I’m sure I’ll figure something out, but I was hoping not to have to worry about it at all.
And there’s always the chance that it won’t be that easy. When everyone runs for the door it’s hard to get through.
Guy,
I’m going to Taize for a week and Paris for a week. I’m very excited. It’s my first time in France. I’m trying to brush up on my High School French, but I no longer have a high school brain.
I guess it’ll be what it is, and I just need to relax and enjoy it.
I love Paris in the Springtime . . .
Merci,
Le Fou
TZ
What cracks you up?
Le Fou
Gary,
Did you get moved to a new server?
If so, it was smooth as silk. Didn’t even notice.
Best,
Le Fou
Guy,
Sorry, I forgot to ask where you will be going? Business or pleasure?
Bon Voyage,
Le Fou
Yes the switch is done and hopefully we won’t have any more crashes.
Silver eater, AKA Robert-
I do recall talking to you about the best silvers to ride on the coming intermediate cycle back in Dec/Jan. I don’t think I can take credit for AG…I know many others have been talking AG for a while (Bobinhawaii, wingman, etc). I just wanted those miners that seemed to garner the most attention on the silver side during the Fall run. I figured those would be reasonable bets this Spring and with AG just getting listed, I liked them vs some of the pink/Canadians.
Regardless, I’m happy to be riding AG, EXK, AXU, SVM & SLW on the miners and AGQ for the metals.:)
pleasure with the family
st tropez
i ve got the advantage that i can do it by car
f cooter, I remember Gary likes to short energy and tech in the “D” wave:
I agree, nice to pick some of these super cheap down the road 🙂
Gary,
Can you elaborate on your recommendation for possible alternative sector for retirement plans without PM’s? (Here or nightly). Looks interesting, but see some resistance, is it a bull? is it due to fundamentals or something else?
Thanks
I like the breakout in the biotech ETF.
Avann,
I have replied to this question a number of times but perhaps you have missed it. Your question is specifically geared towards buying paper or physical.
I personally do not trust most of the paper instruments and I believe there WILL be a day of reckoning. That being said I don’t see it anytime in the near future but perhaps a few years out when the mania begins.
In the meantime I think buying paper may be ok but it all depends on which paper. I think the futures are the most dangerous right now because of the possibility of a force majeure and, of coure, it could affect some of our paper holding on the stock market.
I personally speculate in securities such as AGQ but keep all excess cash in physical gold and silver. So I guess while I don’t think something horrible is going to happen now I still would rather have the physical stuff. And besides if you are buying in size then the annual costs + premiums should be similar to the costs of many of the paper products. And if you’re not buying in size you will likely pay a higher premium but you won’t have storage fees as you can hide it somewhere in your home, etc.
Hope this helps
The Angry Hippie
The SIL @$29.16 you saw was about 116k shares listed at time 1601. No way for me to be sure, but it appears to be some sort of book squaring and may not have really been a trade of that size at that time.
>I think the futures are the most dangerous right now because of the possibility of a force majeure…..
I personally speculate in securities such as AGQ
May I suggest you read the AGQ prospectus.
EXK, SVM, AXU all broke up huge out of this pattern. SLW closed above the break out zone, so hopefully we will see SLW rocket higher now.
SLW Triangle
TZ,
I get it and I know what you’re talking about. I alluded to that earlier and the other day.
I think we are playing Russian roulette with anything that is tied to the futures market (although I believe they do some swaps and other derivatives outside of the futures market).
Look, I was a futures trader for years so I understand the market.
Right now I’m betting and so is everyone who has futures that we will get out before a force majeure happens. And I think one month from now should still be safe.
But point well taken and already thought out to the extent possible.
Thanks Steven … I see some are concerned and some are not … I’ll keep allocating 10-15% into CEF.
Expectation is that if paper crumbles physical would soar and hopefully cover any losses. Seems like a very remote possibility but it’s a small price so no big deal.
Steven,
Will you please describe what happens when “a force majeure happens”?
Thanks,
Le Fou
We always hear this paper market collapse nonsense at every C-wave top.
Price always cures a supply problem.
At some point price will rise high enough that an avalanche of silver and gold will hit the market.
Gary,
Thanks for the guidance. Okay, so you get us out before the correction. What I’d like to know is will you give us direction so that we can profit on the downslide too?
Sure like to load up on some puts, or go with GLL.
Gary,
Can you post the alternate stop in terms of GLD (to the premium site) when you get a chance? Thx!
Gary,
You may have missed my post from yesterday but that is exactly what I said. They will be forced to allow the pirce to rise to a level where they can get enough silver. I suspect we’re not there yet but how far away I don’t know. I do know that the physical market for those buying in size is the tightest people have ever seeen it.
You were right last summer, something was going on with the silver market and you have been vindicated not only on price but you also nailed the reason…supply issues.
All this just by watching the way silver reacts. You are amazing.
Gary,
Have you or do you see a time to buy physical?
Thanks
wow gary,
three years before the next C-wave…
we have a lot of thumb twiddling to do…
after the A wave, what do we do those three years?
Thanks Gary … and I appreciate your coolness … I just sleep better with my approach. I’m a bit of a worrier … I have never allocated more then 10% of my portfolio ever into any single company let alone 100% into silver.
And when I sell at the top … I’ll also sell my CEF.
For now I’ll do 85% HZU and 15% CEF.
It’s not like I’m gonna lose the money with CEF …
the A wave could be about a 400 dollar run?
@Intern, Gary has said it a few times: he doubts he will buy another ounce of gold during this bull market.
Rule #1 never, never, never, never short a bull market. many have had to learn this lesson the hard way over the last several months.
This rule applies to d-wave’s also.
Now if you want to buy a few puts where your risk is limited to the price of the puts then you could play the D-wave that way. But never short a bull market. Your risk is infinite.
Jeez Gary!
I had it on the 3rd “never”
Okay, when the time comes, do we just sit it out, and wait for it to run again?
A force majeure can mean different things in various areas (even contracts oftem have force majeure clauses).
Let’s say silver is trading at $50 when it happens (which I doubt but anything is possible). You will get your $50 in a cash settlement with the exchange. Then again, the price should plummet on the rumors of the force majeure (I doubt they can keep it completely quiet). So you may end up getting less even by waiting a couple of days until it is announced. Then again, rumors of force majeure happen maybe 3-4 times per year on the silver side and it has yet to happen.
But here’s the rub…the price of physical silver may literally be well over $100. So in essence you really lost a ton of value.
But, again, I don’t think this is imminent for two main reasons.
1. As Gary pointed out the price of silver rising is helping them.
2. They are still able to get away with paying huge premiums to people who was delivery in size. This really is a force majeure in disguise but it’s only with a few people so they can keep the casino / comex / LBMA going.
I might try to short tech or energy or some other sector that’s in dire need of a regression to the mean event.
BoW was large on the SPY.
Nice chart poly, thnx for share
Pima,
You’re talking about getting to $43+ in a week with your chart and analysis, assuming they reach the intersection. From your mouth to … 🙂
In any event thanks for the chart.
Thanks Gary,
I will just continue to follow your lead, read and study your charts, and listen to constructive insights from my fellow bloggers.
I may be overweighted in PM, but my two accounts are up 27 & 13% respectively, in the last day…
Yash,
Where is your date analysis from?
You guys are nuts…
I was up 8.68% today and I thought I was above average. LOL
San Deigo Jack,
What do you have in your account!
Ugh…
GG Call Options; Up 50.24% Today
EXK Call Options: Up 43.48% Today
Etc, etc…
Yes, either stupid, or have Brass Ba**s. You know, Cajones.
I know everyone here likes the junior miners, but I just looked at Newmont Mining (NEM) and the indicators point up, and it looks very promising.
STEVEN,
I agree with you on futures. That’s what I’m primarily trading now for reasons I have outlined before.
I think there will be increasing games by the futures exchanges and regulators as this progresses, but I don’t think much serious stuff will occur for THIS C wave other than continued reasonable margin increases.
If they screw the the exchange or contract terms too much they risk causing another venue to be come the price setting point. They don’t want that since they control THIS exchange.
Thus they have to balance the games with the opposite effect of driving the business somewhere else they can’t control nearly as easy. For now I don’t see an issue.
Gary, Can you update Stops/Triggers with the GLD also.
Thank!
Hello,
I bought eight contracts of “AG 05/21/2011 25.00 Call” today. This is the first time I have ever purchased an option.
Did I make a good decision? :o|
I’d really appreciate the feedback
Eamonn, It depends on what you paid per contract, but if it’s going up, you should be good.
TZ,
You and I are on the exact same page. I do expect at point down the road to see a force majeure but that may be the next C wave or possibly even the parabolic finish which could be 5-7 years from now. In then end the demand for physical will continue and at some point someone(s) will demand so much physical and will not accept cash that it will cause it to happen.
They have a defacto duopoly with the LBMA and the last thing they both want is for the physcial market to set the price but my guess is at some point down the road that will happen.
Gary,
You had a great weekend and you brought it home with you to share!
When is your next competition?
Thanks 🙂
stops have been updated.
Ive eaten Silver
How the hell did you get that picture of me?
I might go to a local meet in LA the end of May.
gary,
so if you would not short the bull, should a person think twice about selling your physical?
It was $2.40 per share, so $240 per contract. So, once AG’s price goes greater than $27.40 I am profiting?
OK, another noob question (please forgive me): say the price of AG reached $35 and I wanted to take profits, thus my profit would be $7.6 per share x 800 shares – cost of contracts($1920) = $4160
Is my calculation correct?
Thank you for your patience
Why would you want to watch the value of your investment drop 20/30% and then consolidate for 2 years before you could make another dime?
Sell and buy it back at the bottom of the D-wave.
Eamon,
Depends, if you’re looking for an extremely speculative security that could be worthless in a blink or double in a day or two, you got it.
Otherwise…
Poly, could you recommend an option I could buy? I want to get leverage on the price of AG rising a lot by May…
Sorry Eamonn, I don’t buy options on miners, plus I wouldn’t be buying any this late in a cycle on a stock that has already run 20%+ in 5 days.
Wait to reload at the next cycle bottom when the premiums come down. Get into a deep option with plenty of volume and tight spreads. Use the few weeks to learn about them.
OK, thank you Poly. I need to do some reading!
Gary’s nightly report has been up for a while.
Eamonn,
why do you post ‘Test’ everyday?
Gary, not to get too ahead of ourselves, want to carefully watch this wave up, but when we do exit the c-wave, will you be trading the ensuing down moves with daily and intermediate cycle analysis?
Gary, when you talk about stocks reverting to the mean are you referring to the 200 dma? What is the “mean”?
Generally speaking when I say reverting to the mean I do mean a move back to the 200 DMA or below.
Eric,
I commented on that a few minutes ago.
Well a good day all
Everyone happy and confident. Sure is great when your riding on golden sunshine…
Eamonn
don,t take this the wrong way and good luck but
don,t forget the warning on leverage and options
Do you know what you are doing / are an awesomely quick learner / just plain lucky
I don,t think the term the bull will correct any timing mistakes applies to options
Hey – both gold and silver are at their highs. So can anyone explain to me why CEF, which is a 50/50 physical gold/silver ETF is not?
I can’t see how exchange rates would make a difference, but maybe adding new metal while also changing the number of shares outstanding could be the reason. Just strikes me as odd to penalize the holders of this ETF if that’s the case.
Anyone who knows?
Wow! You guys are posting double digit gains today and here I am pretty happy with my tiny 3.8% gain lol. I’m not leveraged or have options, just not comfortable enough with them. I’m more than happy enough just to be FULLY in.
Jonas,
NAV premium must have shrunk.
With the breakout, I’m tempted to move some lower-performing money into NUGT. Was going to swap out of SIL, but maybe I’ll stick with that one and use some other money.
@Poly:
Hm, you’re probably right. It used to be around 5-6% and the price is now just about a buck under the top, which would be some 4%.
Thanks!
Jonas
Not sure I’ll really answer your question, but as in any share dilution it takes some time for the share proceeds to be employed (and only that, but to be reported to and blessed by investors)…that is assuming the new capitol is productive before some significant change in the market. Note that cef is not a vehicel to play the daily/immediate moves of silver/gold to the fullest. The timing of certain disclosures of the fund make a difference on the supply/demand of fund shares along with the market action of PM’s.
fat boy, thank you for your advice. I bought the book “Get Rich With Options” by Lee Lowell and I will read it to see what I need to know. I don’t think maybe they are as simple as I thought they were…
Steven,
I have no way of knowing whether silver will tag the top of both channels before it starts moving down into the daily cycle low. Sometimes significant moves down DO begin when an etf or commodity has NOT tagged the upper channel line.
I just thought it was interesting that the top channel lines of both channels converge on April 11 – 13 or 14. If silver ends up in that price vicinity during that time frame, I may reduce my exposure a bit.
The caveat, especially for those new to Gary’s sub service, is that it’s usually difficult to trade around a daily cycle low. That is, trying to sell at the high and buy at/near the low is tough to do. The risk is that after you sell (even just part of your position), silver rockets higher and you’re left standing in the dust. And even the daily cycle low that comes eventually can come in at a price that is HIGHER than where you sold. Gary would say don’t do it, just ride out the daily cycle corrections and save the trading for the IT cycle highs and lows.
You better believe options are not simple. Just the fact that they are a zero sum play means that every dollar you make must, must, come from someone else’s pocket (ignoring time decay). And, since the old pros don’t just spend time swapping spit with each other, it means fresh meat is essintial to their gains…with that in mind, where do you fit in?
pimaCanyon, I think I agree with you about trading around the coming daily cycle low. Every time I try to get cute by doing things like that I seem to get caught, and lose money. As my portfolio grows the amount of leverage I am using gets much smaller so I feel I will have the stomach to ride through the daily cycle low. However, I feel it could be quite stormy through it though as daily cycle lows tend to get more volatile as they approach the major c-wave blow-off
Very, very well put W ! I think I would be the innocent fresh meat!!
Hot Rod
As far as I know RYPMX is your only option for being in gold with Rydex.
I have an IRA with them. During this C wave you will make money….maybe not as much as if you could buy ETFs. The fund went up 4% today.
They also have short funds and double funds for playing other parts of the market when the time comes to get out of RYPMX.
You must trade RYPMX 1/2 hour before the close. The double funds have an opening cut-off to trade an hour after the open and you can trade until 15 min before the close.
Hope this helps.
Jeannette
Ryan, being fully in now, you will see double digits soon. Patience. 🙂
David, are you David or Jeannette ? ;o)
I must say, I am relieved that the last 2 days have been so good. Doubts and fear were creeping in….It was stressful for me. Especially cos I was leveraged
Eamonn, If you are not confident with the AG options as soon as you see them in the green sell them as miners are volatile and can drop when everything else is going up. Some profits are better than no profits. That is where you can get in trouble, is gee, these are so easy to buy. Before you realize it you are loaded up with options that can turn. Take your time learing them. I would try one contract at a time til you get the hang of it. Wouldn’t you rather lose $300 than $3000? Best lessons learned are by your own mistakes as you understand what went wrong. Just take it slow. As soon as you see some green, sell off the bulk and keep one or two to learn on.
Eamonn,
I too have ‘thought out loud’ about trading options. Gary tried to convince me not to trade them.
A week or two ago a young chap on this board asked all the experienced traders for their best advice. I suggest you find that thread and read it twice. I believe Gary’s advice was to NOT blow out one’s account, or something to that effect.
From my reading here at SMT, trading options is the quickest way to lose it all.
I cannot speak from experience, but that’s why I come to this blog, to learn from people who have been to hell and back with regards to trading.
Good luck with whatever you decide, Eamonn.
I can agree with you Eamonn, as I am sure plenty others do also…
“must say, I am relieved that the last 2 days have been so good. Doubts and fear were creeping in….It was stressful for me.”
Thanks for the advice, Rob L. and …at ease. Much appreciated :o)
Thanks for posting Gary, I was close, just didn’t know to go up down or in the middle.
LA, what type of competition are they having the end of May, same you just did or a different category?
Hi all,
New poster here from Oz. I signed up to the blog a short time ago.
Nice break on Gold last night. Cup n Handle pattern suggests an initial target of 1560 if we hold the neckline at 1432. Those that bought during the handle over the past couple of weeks should do well.
Congrats to Gary for the big win. It seems you have conquered your own personal Matterhorn before taking a holiday to bask on it’s sunny slopes.
Cheers
Darren
Gary,
Did you just recommend to someone that they sell their physical at the top of the C-Wave? I would strongly disagree with that advice (if its what you meant). During a fiat currency devaluation, the reason most buy physical gold is to preserve wealth. There is a reasoanble argument that wealth in terms of physical gold during a fiat deval is not measured in dollars, its measured in ounces.
Just as no one should short a bull, one who has accumulated physical metal should not think of it as a trade, but rather an insurance policy. What if the gold bull keeps rising due to some unforeseen or foreseen collapse in the currency? The insurance policy is gone. I would argue that one rid themselves of paper positions, but accumulate physical metal on the drop, thus increasing wealth preservation.
JM2C
f
At ease,
This one will be an open competition. That means any age. I can’t really compete with the young guys anymore but I will go and try to make new personal bests.
Hopefully by this time next year I will be ready to attack the world records.
Gary,
What kind of follow up action would you anticipate to see tomorrow and over next few days to be confident that we have a genuine break through.
This comment has been removed by the author.
For those asking about GPL, TSI Trader has this:
I have been trying to move gold related positions over to the silver side of the ledger. Today I got that opportunity when I was able to unload my position in Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) for a small gain. Honestly, the setup on GDXJ is excellent.
*
I purchased call options on Silver Wheaton (SLW) and doubled my position in Great Panther Silver (GPL). Meanwhile, GDXJ continued to go higher to the close and GPL lower. Short term, of course, that did not quite work out right, did it?
*
As you can see from the chart, GPL broke the wedge on the daily chart to the downside. With what I know of Great Panther Silver I doubt this is the future direction of the stock and I am hoping I just bought it when it was not loved. Time will tell.
http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/
Good Luck,
Le Fou
Sandy,
Today’s action wasn’t good enough for you?
FC,
The dollar will rise because deflation will be rearing it’s ugly head again. In a deflation the value of currency increases.
In that scenario I want to be in dollars not an over extended gold market.
Now if you want to ride your gains back down and then sit with a dead investment for a couple of years be my guest.
I’m confident I can do better than that. So yes I would advise selling all precious metal positions at the top of the C-wave and then buying them back after the D-wave with a much stronger dollar.
fubsy
Yeah, I agree, my physical will not be for sale…not to mention the bid-asked spread is revolting. Hell I’ve had some of it since the early 90’s. And like they say “always have enought to bribe the border guards”.
Gary,
It was great:) just a little apprehensive still because of several head fakes around this level.
Staying in the game is good enough as we mature. Helps keep you young 🙂 But I am sure it is a grand feeling to beat out the competition! Good for body and soul.
Eamonn
This David is Jeannette!
Sorry, I need to use my husband’s email. He is not the other David either!
Jeannette
Just checking in, i am not testing.
Gary,
In your last post regarding physical, you mentioned “sitting with a dead investment for a couple of years”. I’m assuming that you’re referring to the time period from c-wave top to next c-wave top. If that’s the case, then what do you expect the duration of the next d-wave to be? Stated differently, what is the average duration of a typical d-wave correction. Thanks
For us newer subms, much nicer to put those stops in place this time, knowing it locks in some profits. 🙂 🙂 🙂
I hear ya … at ease !!!
11:00pm…silver popping, gold lagging behind but also moving 🙂
I think folks use TEST to make sure they are receiving emails.
Have to check the box below to make sure you get follow ups, but you have to post first before it will take affect. Hence I think the purpose of TEST we see periodically.
Yash,
I see you playing with time and price to come up with some late may turn dates…….interesting.
Some of the local index traders over here are looking at similar.
Darren
Thanks for all your help everybody and especially to Gary for his massive genius. I got in on this C-wave late as a new sub, but I’m now in AG, SLV, AGQ, and UGL. My little retirement fund is up 3% in one day… And I didn’t finish getting in until this morning. Amazing to be on the board with all the financial and economic wisdom and knowledge that is displayed here. Plus, you all help the rooks like myself. This is a cool place.
I am with you Fubsy..no selling my Insurance. I think the difference with our thinking and that of Gary is simply we don’t look at the Physical as an investment. My investments are in futures. A good portion of those profits will be converted to physical at D wave bottom. By the way, I only buy coins. Mostly Eagles, some Maple Leafs and less than 5% in UK and Euro. Two reasons for this. 1) Folks, whether you want to believe or not, we are not going back to what we are living through. Currencies around the globe will be re evaluated/extinguished. Gold will be part of this new system. Right before your eyes wealth will be erased/transferred. Only holders of Gold and real assets will escape. 2)Eagle coins for Americans are not reportable, not taxable. They are legal tender. Government money. There is nothing safer, no matter what happens. Protect your wealth.
at ease,
I should of been more clear. I meant to say today I gained 3.8%. I’m a bit of a late adopter going all in when Gary called the intermediate low but not that late 🙂 However with that said if I do see a double digit percentage gain in one day then I’ll break out the champagne lol.
Natanarchist, I have bought smaller swiss francs, (for just in case), and will look at the eagle if I have some extra profits after the C wave. Figured if not needed, can sell at the top of the market in a few years. Better to be prepared for the worst and relax if not needed.
Just saw my account and the charts – whoa!
It’s hi ho silver…awaaay!
William,
I saw your post…could you give me the url to Resource Report.
I googled it and found a entreprenuership company – can’t be right.
Gary,
I agree and will sell all paper based pm positions, but not physical. Physical is an insurance policy, which at this time I believe to be critical. You mention the risk of infinite losses if one were to sell short against a bull market. To me this means you recognize that the bull could keep on going.
Again, i understand that the dollar will rise in value during a D-Wave. i just think most people who buy physical don’t consider it “dead money” if gold corrects for a couple years, at it is simply a preserver of wealth in the case the dollar doean’t do what we expect. Perhaps it will roll over sooner than one expects for any number of reasons.
I will be selling all of my pms held in brokerage accounts, but not physical. Owning the physical lets me sleep at night even it drops by 30% in a frew months as i know it will one day be worth much more. The money I make trading a drop in asset classes during the D-Wave will let me add to my phys and thus, my wealth, which again could end up being measured in ozs, not dollars.
F
Kevin, You got in just in time, so you should be good. A lot of us didn’t get in at the bottom. So we are just now locking in some profits with this last stop in place.
fubsy,
I was pondering selling my physical too and asked awhile back. The question is that is there much risk of you not being able to pick back up your physical holding and then some if you were to dump around C wave top and pick them back up during the D wave which should last 6-8 weeks?
so for instance, selling my 1000oz at $50/ounce and waiting a month and a bit later to pick up say 1200oz with the same 50K sitting there. Low risk I am guessing unless I do something stupid like take the 50K and put a down payment on a lambo. 🙂
new high on the euro
With that, it looks like the USD is dropping.
Good to see the dollar cracking…let’s see if it can crack 75! Plenty of time left in this cycle to do so.
party is getting started
Isn’t the premium on selling “true” physical too high to sell and buy back.
Scotia Moccatta charges close to a 15% premium.
I have never sold coins so I’m not sure how much of a premium there is to sell them … I assume 15%?
So … even if you sold at the top and bought back at the bottom wouldn’t there have to be at least a 30% drop in order to make it worth your while?
Morning everyone
So long Dollar
I do have to say that I am torn as far as physical. Thinking of cashing in some at 50 an ounce. Then in just a two months buying more to keep on my person. I am willing to concede that Gary Probably knows more than I do. He also believes that it’s possible this can last 7-10 more years. So I and others will have to come up with a very tough decision.
Good morning,
Those pondering whether to sell physical or not at the end of this C-wave might consider selling half. You won’t be totally right, or totally wrong, and the decision can be made quickly.
Personally, I am not selling any physical holdings this early in the secular bull. To me, it’s not just an investment, it’s insurance.
I will never sell my physical, barring a financial emergency. I plan on buying some puts during the D wave to cover the decline and then put that into more physical at the end of the D wave.
Avann, You are correct they do charge a premium cash in price. When I bought they recommended you hold for 3 to 5 years for your gold to have time to increase in value to include profit over your premium charge. So if you are buying this year 3 years is 2014 years out and 5 years is 2016, so that would probably be the longest you would want to hold physical if you have not needed it by then.
RA,
You can access it through http://www.stansberryresearch.com. There will be a link to publications at the top of the page and you will find the Resource Report there. I think the annual subscription is $100. Right now though, the analyst that runs the publication, Matt Badiali, has moved onto other resource investments. He has a portfolio full of miners and has now been advising adding to natural gas plays, so if you are looking for immediate new recommendations on miners this may not suit your needs. There is a portfolio of individual miners if you are just looking for a list of potential candidates that someone has already performed significant due diligence on, though. The analyst is good about doing thorough due diligence which usually includes discussions with the executives and/or site visits.
I like this publication b/c it covers such a broad spectrum and gives good recommendations on all aspects of the energy and resource space and it is very reasonably priced. You will get PMs, industrial metals, oil, natural gas, alternative energy plays, etc.
One other word of caution, you will get a lot of marketing spam from Stansberry’s other publications once you sign up so just be prepared for that if you choose to do so.
RA, you will get at least 5 emails a day from the S & P group if you sign up for any of their services, and it is very repetitive information, so easy to delete when you reads the subject lines. However, good information, just a lot of sales pitches too. So a lot to weed through.
Anybody like MDW here ? It was recently $2.39 and P&F chart shows bpo of $5.88. FUndamentally, they have a nice amount of gold and Barrick backing them. Any comments would be appreciated . Thanks !
Now that Silver is fast approaching $40, which has been quite a significant milestone. I wonder if we should take some (sizable) profit now? My concern is that there will be significant profit taking once Silver has achieved this target.
If silver pokes above $40 today or tomorrow I have to think it will quickly retreat a little bit.
Not that I’m going to get cute and sell, but I am still looking for an opening to add more dry powder.
We still have a ways to go before the buying climax.
A small update on the CEF pricing question I had earlier. I’ve actually mailed the fund itself and asked. Waiting for an answer now.
Meanwhile, I uncovered an interesting fact. They actually use the London PM Gold fix as the official price to determine NAV. I.e. the exact same point in time that for many trading days is marked by a dip. So I would actually say that on average, the premium is overstated. For example yesterday the premium was 5.5%, but that was when using 1433.50 for gold and 38.08 for silver.
(On a conspirational note, the consistent suppression of the London gold fix could thus theoretically help making the -2.5% premium on SLV less negative).
Those discussing physical,
I also hold physical as insurance and have ‘compartmentalized’ this trade in mind as being separate then my paper trades.
I plan on using arbitrage and trading the gold/silver ration to increase my holding in OZ not in dollar value. It’s a tough concept for most to wrap their heads around but if your goal is insurance and to protect your wealth it makes great sense.
Right now the gold silver is very low and when the D wave comes silver will drop in value much faster then gold. This is a great time to swap your gold for ailver as the ratio will rise very fast.
By the way, I just changed my profile and removed the last name.
Any thoughts on where the D-wave will take silver? I don’t want to buy more physical if eventually it ends up lower than it is now.
Good morning!
Great Day yesterday! Just skimmed the blog, lots of good comments and welcome to all new posters.
I just want to say that on a day like that, if you have to be flying, JETBLUE was awesome. 36 cable channels, so I got to watch CNBC to at least keep up with the P.O.G., and all our juniors and majors were scrolling by like tech stocks 🙂
I have a question for the computer tech savvy guys …was it TZ that was good here?? Or PIMA?-anyways…
In the airport I was using the free wireless for my laptop. I NEVER usually log into accts on public sights…but There were 2 stocks that I was specifically tracking and felt strongly about my “BUY NOW” signals.I logged into my acct and figured I’d change the password today. Question is…safe enough??I’ve never done that before, so just wondering ( Please…NO URBAN LEGENDS or “OOH, you should be nervous,my uncles laptop blew up when he did that!!” Blog scare stuff , I just like to keep it REAL! 🙂
THX!
Hi Alex,
A reputable broker will have your login username and password encrypted, usually a minimum of 128-bit, before it is sent by your computer over the wifi network to their server. Only the US NSA in theory could break this encryption.
If you are willing to share the name of your broker, I could look into it for you.
Alex, I log in at airports all over the country, every week, and have not had a problem. I’m sure that doesn’t guarantee anything, but I do it all the time.
RA
To add my experience to At Ease’s comments, yes you do receive several emails a day when you subscribe to any Stansberry publication, however, it is because you are automatically signed up for three free publications that they do on a daily basis. This is market news and commentary not marketing material and you can unsubscribe from these if you like. I probably receive 2 – 5 spam marketing materials a week from them so not too heavy and again well worth it for the advice that they provide me.
Maria, I own MDW, and I still like the chart. Another breakout seems assured, and the price pattern suggests 3.20 is possible.
Alex, every time I log into my broker account from a different computer (ISP address is different) the site will ask me for my preset account question/answer set up prior to confirm identity. So if someone else was logging into your account from their computer they would need to know the answer to that question. My banks do the same thing.
This comment has been removed by the author.
QE3?
“A “few” among the central bank’s 17 governors and regional bank presidents said tighter credit may be warranted this year, while a “few others noted that exceptional policy accommodation could be appropriate beyond 2011,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in the minutes, released yesterday in Washington.”
3 articles about gold and silver on the Street.com this morning. Glad we are first movers here. Most people will be too nervous to buy into strength and then as they watch gold/silver rise they will panic buy thinking they are missing out then the D wave will wipe the late comers out. Then we start this whole silly dance once again.
Welcome back Alex, glad to see you all survived vacation and made it back to ride the C wave!
EAMONN and BRIAN and AT EASE
Thx, it is an encrypted login and since Brian does that all the time without problem, I feel better. It was mostly that warning about ‘WARNING,information sent through this provider is not secured and may be viewed by other users”..something to that effect.
I said “CRAP, I’m giving away good stock tips!”
J/K , I said ,
“crap, I hope I’m not somehow displaying my account to the public or something.”
Brian, NG and MDW were my 2 stocks yesterday morning 🙂
AT EASE , thank you, yes..I went on vacation and the c-wave paid for it ! 🙂
Thanks for the quick replies!
Question for some more experienced traders: If I wanted to increase leverage and am willing to take more risk, would I add to AGQ or buy AGQ june ITM calls here?
Alex
As far as security I log on to my accounts through my phone and have never had a problem. I’ve looked for a norton anti virus for the phone but they don’t have it on the market. You should consider getting lifelock. They make sure no new accounts can be opened in your name without you being notified first.
Dan,
AGQ options have very wide spreads and thin margins. If you’re looking for leverage on Silver, better to play in the SLV pool, very tight and huge options volume. Playing with the strikes will alter your leverage.
For example the July $30’s are currently returning 5-6x the Silver move while the $32 are around 7-8x.
May want to wait for a cycle low now.
Gary, you’re right. Human nature never changes:
“Since ancient times, credit markets have undergone periodic booms and busts. In 594 BC, for example, the Greek state of Attica found itself under severe economic stress because of the massive debt incurred by many of its citizens. The ensuing civil disorder resulted in a handover of power to Solon, one of the ‘seven wise men’ of Greece . Solon took radical steps to restore balance to the economy, such as canceling debts, freeing those enslaved for failing to repay their loans, and devaluing the currency by 25 percent.”
(copied from Jesse’s Cafe Americain.)
Welcome back, Alex.
Are you liking the prices on AXU and NG this morning?
Thanks Poly,
I think your right , I will wait. Hard to sit on some cash right now though.
Alex, Seems lots of people here helped jump start NG! I already owned it, but liked your commentary on it.
Welcome back, glad you had a good trip!
Hammy sticking his head out again: ***click***
Welcome home Alex !
I’ve been a sub since last year but I haven’t blogged other to than to enjoy comments from experienced traders like yourself.
I saw that you posted yesterday that ‘the waters are fine … come in’ … would you buy the open today or wait for a retest of $39 ?
thanks !
Like i’ve said many times, a “bubble in blog sites”.
MARIA
MDW I do like here , and MMG is also looking good chart wise.
Anyone know anything about this blog:
http://likesmoney.dojispace.com/
Looks like a copy of Gary’s work.
I posted a comment saying that I liked his charts, very clear, etc., and that your work seems very similar to that of Gary Savage on The Smart Money Tracker, are you affiliated with him in any way?
I noticed my comment was “awaiting moderation by blog owner” for a couple of days and in the meantime the blog owner posted a new post. So I entered the same comment on the new post.
This morning I find that both of my comments were deleted.
I’m kicking myself for not buying AG. I thought about it a week ago or so, but thought, no it’s gotta be over-extended, having moved up so much over the past 2 or 3 weeks. But it just keeps on kicking a$$!
PIMA,
why yes I am!! 🙂
MOONDOGGIE ( thats a new name)Thanks , honestly it depends on what you ‘re ‘buying’ really .
I wouldnt buy AG here (because its risky at this point, but it could keep going). I WOULD buy other ones just breaking out.
Gary
I don’t know if your climbing that Gold stack in your picture, but I wanted to throw something at you. I think two months ago you mentioned there was a possibility that the overall market would rise with our Cwave and that there would be a selloff as we would go through our Dwave. If that pans out, could we possibly look to short the overall market because that is in a Secular Bear market?
Alex
Not only the logon, but the exchange is encrypted too. I traded for years from airports, coffee shops and hotel parking lots without a problem. HOWEVER, we live in a different world now and on my laptop I use a third party proxy that adds a another level of encryption for ALL traffic. Sorry I can’t provide a link at the moment. Anyway this is similar to encoding a flash drive to protect data on it.
I will look to short an overextended sector or sectors but not the gold bull.
My current thought is that it will likely be energy or tech.
Gary – 1) do you expect one more daily cycle after the one we are in before the top of C wave in gold? 2)gold’s 200 dma is 1326. Do you still expect it’s envelop to stretch to 30-40% above its 200 dma or to at least 1723?
Hello,
I am thinking of pulling out of my AG soon. Could the board be kind enough to mention some good looking miners to me? I’d really appreciate it.
And Bernanke thought he was the only one who could print money? He has nothing on the good people here!
Yes we should have at least one more daily cycle up since we obviously have no chance to get to those kind of stretched conditions in the short time remaining in this daily cycle.
Everything is OK , and getting better all the time!
Dan,
I always sit on some cash because you never know what can happen, so I am looking for a gap fill on SLV today and will add a few options at that point and hold them for a few days. Crossing my fingers for that SLV gap to get filled even partially.
i like MVG and NG here, just starting to breakout.
New highs in the HUI.
Appears we’re getting very nice follow through confirmation.
With the current day count and bullish action, we have a very strong chance of getting to $1,500 this week or early next to mark a cycle top, sure is well within reach and a nice round logical “top number”.
On the way back down, a brief run of the stops at $1,450 or previous high of $1,447 would be a good candidate for a cycle low.
Is today gonna be the day when we ask
“Where were you when silver topped $40?”
Thanks Alex,
I wanted to add to AGQ on a pull back but I guess we can’t expect that with this kind of action … I like the new photo … I think I need to take a vacation
1520 is the next gold target in my book, there prob will be some round number resis at 1500 imho
Isn’t it fun to sit and watch your money grow!
“Sitting” is when the money is made.
Hippie,
Time to go buy a box of condoms, this speculative orgy is just getting started. 🙂
for those interested: NSU has a beautiful IHS that broke out today
ALEX,
Thanks for the tips yesterday, took some NG in the AM. Any other breakout candidates on your screen?
For those looking to put money into another miner, they might want to consider that any one of these individual names might pull a GPL, and decide to raise capital (sell more stock) at these elevated prices. At this stage, it might be safer to go with an etf so you’re sure to benefit from a rise in the group.
In short, there is no stopping the group move higher, but specific company risk is still a concern. GPL is doing nothing again while most miners make new highs.
SIL and NUGT will be my focus, if I even get an opportunity to add.
As far as the money being made in the sitting, I couldn’t agree more. Gary’s advice to turn of the ‘puter and do something else has served me well. I’m going to take him up on that right now, come to think of it.
Good luck!
Dollar continues to slip.
If the dollar continues to fall I would not bet on any gaps being filled.
This is going to get really interesting.
You know why I am here, Jesse. All I am wearing right now is a walking liberty half dollar.
NUGT looks like an excellent ETF to buy.
The only thing that concerns me is the low daily float.
Alex
The program I use is dated, but gets the job done. It is “Hotspot Sheild”. You may not feel the need to use it if you don’t travel too much. But I recommend some form of it for any “road warrior” that is transacting business. I sure felt more comformable when in the wild and wooly east of China!
btw: I’m using the program now, but from the laptop at home.
Silver is almost stretched to 60% above its 200 dma. I wonder how much stretch is left?
Hamster,
I won’t entertain you with a reprisal, your words speak enough to your character.
Seems like hamster still hasn’t found any manners. Oh well he just got relegated to the spam bin.
What a great start to the morning. Gary, you are a rock star… pun intended.
Elaine
More hopeing than betting on a gap fill. On the 5 min chart SLV is overbought, but we saw this yesterday too where it was overbought and by the end of the day the MACD had moved back down to neutral while silver continued higher. If you didn’t buy at the open you never had a chance unless you just bought into the strength.
W
Thx
WMP
yes, and the gap fill today on NG is a good thing , i.m.h.o.
I am watching a lot of miners, boy can they move. Bought MDW yesterday, and I bought MNEAF just a couple wks ago (and posted here @ $2,50), and it just hit $3.50, but the real breakout seems to be now(new 1 yr high)-
I may add more if this one pulls back to fill todays gap and thus retests the breakout. I feel it may since it broke its last high at this area on lighter volume yesterday ( thats important to me).
NIKEBOY
Good call
sold all my slw , agq & sil & gdxj..will buy back next week
Gary,
Given that we still have a week or so to go in the current daaily cycle and both gold and the HUI have just broken out to new highs so you expect the $40 are to pose resistance on silver?
And if your crystal ball is working, where do you think profit taking wil begin on silver?
Thanks!
92000,
I’ve noticed you have a very nervous personality. You will not be able to buy into a correction. All you did this morning is give up your strong hand status.
Steven,
I think you should turn off your computer and do something else for the next month so you can have a chance to ride this for all it’s worth.
Bold move oa, bold move.
gary,
i’ll be out of country for 1 week, that ‘s the only reason i take the profit today.
I took a look at PZG and bought it – thanks to whoever recommended it. About to file a new 43-191 that should more than double their gold equivalent. Albert Freidberg is the money behind it (Seabridge) and Rudi Fronk is on the board.
People be honest with yourself. If you couldn’t buy into the recent correction then you aren’t going to be able to buy into the next one either. Corrections never look like corrections they always look like the end and the media and our minds will find a way to spin it as the end.
43-101
92000,
You need to be honest with yourself. Being out of the country for a week is meaningless. The C-wave isn’t going to top in a week.
You have got it into your head that you can outsmart the bull.
The bull will make you pay for that assumption.
Hamster,
Post when you are back in. Thanks.
Anyone dumping GPL today?
Where can I find the most accurate and “live” USDX (DXY) data?
I was using this site and it has the right data but is 30 minutes delayed:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX
I was also using this site and looks to be live, but is not the right data:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5
Thanks.
profit taking ….
I thought about selling a couple laggards, but I am too concerned about losing any positions…….
To all those who watch the wiggles, I don’t want to put words in Gary’s mouth, but Gary’s repeating montra is that you need to have confidence in the strategy, then stick to it with strong discipline regardless of the intraday wiggles. People lose money trading because of a lack of discipline and sticking to the system. I re-read the turtle trading rules to remind myself that lack of discipline is the primary way of losing money. You need a plan, then execute it to the tee. If your not good at planning, pay someone who is. My return on the subscription with Gary is 9600% and I’ve been subscribed for ~1 month.
https://www.bsp-capital.com/documents/turtlerules.pdf
Read the turtle rules if you want to know the structure (not so much the technical ins and outs) of a successful trading system. Gary is following his method/system with strong conviction, which is making us plenty of money. Gary has more discipline than many of combined (proven by his weight lifting record) so questioning calls on every wiggle will drive you nuts!
Set your stops, walk away, and let the magic happen!!!!
Gary,
I think it’s prudent to take some leverage off the table here.
We broke out into new highs and now fallen back. It’s always better to sell into strength and have some dry powder.
I had a stop in place on GPL that got hit. I’m a little nervous about potential downside here in some of these juniors.
I don’t want them offsetting any gains in AGQ, SLW or SIL…
nice call on the drop in metals hammy. just a daily wiggle for the rest of us.
HOTROD, try http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/ChartStation.aspx
Eric,
You are trying to time daily wiggles. I can assure you that you won’t be able to do it with any consistency. We obviously aren’t anywhere close to the C-wave top and probably not even at a daily cycle top.
As such there is no logical reason to alter positions.
HotROD, I follow the dollar on goldseek.com
http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/charts/usdollar/usdollarindex1hour.php
USD eating it here…I have no idea why anyone would be worried here.
Alex,
Do you plan on holding NG and AXU till C wave looks like it’s topping? Or do you have stops in place for these just in case they start to act independently from what the PM’s are doing?
Gary,
Here’s my thought process. If you are 130% leveraged, taking 30% off the table earlier might be wise simply because of the risk that we might get a nasty ‘wiggle’ tomorrow if the dollar rallies because the ECB ended up not hiking rates.
100% is still considered FULLY invested. Of course, that’s just my take on managing position.
Caution in DeMark land for metals lovers:
39.83 was the target for D-wave up in Silver – is 39.785 close enough for DeMark work? It was close enough last summer when the SPX hit its low around 1010 and didn’t quite reach the down exhaustion level. As a reminder, we are on a WEEKLY sell signal in Silver – good from April through the end of June – you can chase but just be careful. As some investors will soon be learning with TZOO, parabolic moves don’t last forever – I wouldn’t be chasing this move, but taking profits…
Eric,
What do you do if the ECB does hike rates and silver jumps another 3%?
Believe me I’ve made these kind of mistakes several times when I started out.
I try not to repeat them.
lol a Weekly sell signal from April till the end of June?
Gary,
If that’s the case, i still have 100% just without the leverage.
🙂
IMO this is your chance to jump back in right now. I think we just filled the gap up and now we are off to the races again
kev,
Why do you continue to follow this worthless system? These technical systems don’t work on the volatile metals sector. You’ve been trying to call tops now for over a month.
Just follow the cycles and sentiment and you will make a fortune…or you can continue to miss the move with this failed system.
and if the dollar closes below the 3/21 low, FORGEDABOUTIT!
Eric,
What’s the point of using leverage if you aren’t going to let it work?
Feels like a mini shakeout, 5 straight up days. Not unusual before or during a final cycle run to a top, right?
This comment has been removed by the author.
PIMA
I always plan to hold them until they do their thing. I expect AXU and SVM to act like EXK, because their patterns are almost identicle. AG had the same pattern too.
I doubt this will be the final run. We need to have one more daily cycle correction and then the parabolic move can begin. It’s way too late in this cycle to expect the parabolic move to start now.
All,
My guess is some whales ran some guppy stops. Yum-yum!
Just added a few options on SLV
Today is day 11 in the USD cycle, its way too soon to be looking for a bottom in the USD’s daily, so gold cant be correcting heavily here, this is all just noise.
It took gold 5 months to crack this level, and today is day 2 post breakout. I doubt 1440 can be cracked in the next daily cycle, too many people will be sitting there expecting it.
Haggerty: “IMO this is your chance to jump back in right now. I think we just filled the gap up and now we are off to the races again”.
Wise words, methinks.
Also, every time I tried to be cute with the bull and sell in advance of possible declines e.g. ECB decision tomorrow, I lose out. Its a tempting amateur compulsion which I did many times myself. But it just does not work. I think you have to make these mistakes before you believe it
Eamonn,
Thanks. It looks like those are live streaming but I am having a hard time finding the quote for USDX. I found the US Dollar which looks right but it has “N/A” for the bid ask.
TraderLady,
Thanks but it looks like the gold seek / kitco info is also 30 minutes delayed.
Another option I use is the UUP but tough time calculating to USDX and it isn’t totally in real time on google.
Gary, I was trying to say final run to the top of the “current cycle”. Next cycle is fireworks
Hot Rod, right click on one of the windows, select “New”, and then select “US Dollar Index”
Gary,
Leverage works both ways. It did work for the past 3 weeks and tacked on more gains than the initial 100% would have.
This is not the first time we got a false break on the HUI and even after breakouts, the miners historically comes back to test those breakout levels. One can always add the leverage back.
I have some SLV 40 APR call options. Any advice from my option fellows on here? Concerned about theta taking larger chunks of my profit the next couple of days if we move sideways. I am thinking about about rolling to the next month and looking at MVG May 12.5.
Eric,
Like I said I’ve made this mistake many times in the past I try not to repeat them.
I guess everyone just has to make the mistakes themselves and then hopefully learn from them.
My leverage will come off at the top of the C-wave not trying to catch meaningless little daily wiggles that even if you catch them perfectly will only add maybe 1-2% to your total return.
It’s just not a big enough prize and it’s too difficult to achieve to make it worth attempting.
EricH,
You always have to do what you feel comfortable with. Especially with leverage. It is a much bigger risk, especially if you are putting your account razor thin on margin requirements.
That being said, Gary is correct when it is used properly and in moderation.
For me, I don’t use it. I play with money I have.
I like when Gary admits he made the same mistake as me many times. Makes me feel less of a moron and a rookie
Hot Rod –
http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/charts/usdollar/usdollarindex24hour.php
Set it to automatically update every 15 seconds, or click “Update Now” if 15 seconds isn’t often enough.
Thanks Gary for your reasoning.
After I just posted, Kevin Depew speaks on Minyanville Buzz and Banter today about Silver in DeMark terms (my comments in parentheses):
DAILY: Silver is now within a hair of reaching the minimum requirement for D-Wave 5 up, 39.84. This is bar 6 up of 9-13-9 sell signal with a new high needed Friday or Monday for completion.
WEEKLY: A TD sequential 13 sell signal is in place on the WEEKLY chart but has not been confirmed with a bearish price flip yet. The sell signal will be active for 10 more weeks.
MONTHLY: This is bar 12 up of a TD Sequential 13 sell signal, that will in all probability record in May (if this records, it will be good for 12 months or 1 year!)
QUARTERLY: This is bar 8 up of a TD Sell Setup 9 that has been perfected. The 9 will record in Q3 (so good from Q4 2011 until Q3 2012) and a TD Sequential 13 sell signal could record as early as Q1 2012 (good for 3 years!)
YEARLY: This is bar 9 this year of a TD Sell Setup 9. The qualified breakout level for this move higher is all the way down at 14.66 (i.e. this level is usually tested at some point!!!)
BOTTOM LINE: I am still long physical silver and will be eliminating the majority of this position over the next few months. I expect a corrective move down to at least 24.34 and possibly to 19.69 over the next few years. I have owned silver for years and its period of outperformance I believe is now over.
– Kevin Depew
For those few who’ve seen my question about CEF “mispricing” vs. the actual metal prices, here’s the answer from CEF itself:
Good Morning,
Thank you for your email and interest in Central Fund of Canada (est. 1961).
Central Fund announced a new share offering last Tuesday evening and this benefits the shareholders of Central Fund of Canada in several ways:
The proceeds are used to buy gold and silver, which increases the value of the fund.
The additional shares increase the liquidity of the fund meaning that there are more shares out there to buy and sell.
The expense ratio is decreased because the cash position is increased to provide more funds to pay Central Fund’s operating costs.
Central Fund will only proceed with the offering if it is non-dilutive to the net asset value of the Class A Shares owned by the
existing Shareholders of Central Fund.
The market price typically drops after the announcement of a new issue and recovers within a short period of time. Also, the
Market price is driven by investor sentiment and supply and demand. The market price follows the rise and fall of the gold and silver
but not always directly.
Central Fund’s net asset value represents the actual value of its gold and silver bullion based on the daily London Fixings plus our
cash assets in our portfolio. Central Fund is 98.5% invested in bullion and therefore, the net asset value of the fund will follow
almost identically to the rise and fall of gold and silver bullion.
I have attached the closing press release for your convenience. If we can be of any further assistance please let us know.
Sincerely,
Bonnie Talbot, Investor Services
Central Fund of Canada
Dollar decisevely breaks November low. Let the wild rumpus begin!
Try this for streaming US$ quote:
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/
What’s with the Great Panther? Not so great past few days…
Farm Girl,
Muchas Gracias. That looks to be it. I don’t know why my browser was having trouble at first. The timestamp is very recent.
Eamonn,
Muchos gracias to you too. I got the chart. However, it does look to be 30 min delayed, even though it does say live streaming.
thanks, Alex.
Mr M,
That’s the downside of trading these juniors You have to time the entry early enough to catch most of the move and then you have to guess at the top. Once they stretch far enough above the mean the hot money flows somewhere else looking for the next big mover and the late comers are left with dead money.
It’s pretty hard to consistently make money with the momentum trades. Yes it’s exciting but then if you want exciting just go down to the local casino.
Ultimately I’m fairly confident someone just buying GDXJ or SIL will handily outperform the momentum jumpers.
Gary said…
“Eric,
What do you do if the ECB does hike rates and silver jumps another 3%?
Believe me I’ve made these kind of mistakes several times when I started out. “
Me too ,really. When Gold was having a hard time breaking out the last few weeks, I could do a lot more trading…stocks were in a “trading range”,forming the cups/handles etc, and not yet in a possible parabolic move.
BUT now it may be that ‘sit tight’ kind of period. I may still trade, but a lot less and only to reposition immediately.
In the past C-wave tops (like 2006) I made great money selling more oversold ones and buying ones just breaking out- but some of those “oversold’ ones just kept going like AG lately. It would have been fine to sit tight. (sold GG@$30 in 2006, it went to $40+ in a week or so)
Also pullbacks like today are temporary ( sometimes intraday,with buyers buying in as you sell, or around 3.30P.M.)
Thanks Gary. What’s a new neighborhood here in Vegas we can take a drive to and check out some model homes, for kicks?
Farm Girl said:
or click “Update Now” if 15 seconds isn’t often enough.
Now that is funny!
Sold Ag-It’s been a fun ride, but hard to press my luck there.
Sold SLV April 35s for 200%, sold my SLW options too.
Want to put that $ back in and was thinking about options. SIL has actually been trading better lately. Might just plug it in there. ALEX thoughts?
Intereting CNBC just had a special on “Will the Silver Bubble Burst”. I take that as good press.
It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! – Jesse Livermore
I sat tight for 100% gain on AG, time to sit tight on something else. 🙂
Jayhawk,
I’m so impressed. I’m sure people who bought AAPL at $10 in ’04 thought they were brilliant when it went to $25. 150% gain in one year? Smartest guy in the room, right?
Yeah…
I’m thinking this littel wiggle looks like a chance to add another 5%. What’s on the menu this morning? Perhaps a little GDX. I think the hedgies and mutual funds are going to start piling in, and since they don’t have the balls to go with juniors, I suspect GDX might look nice in my portfolio along side GDXJ, SIL and AGQ.
f
JAYHAWK
I sold Ag at the opening gap because I looked at it on a 3 yr wkly…and Its parabolic for now.Just re-positioning.
Same as GPL on a 3 yr wkly.I emailed DG and told him a 3 gap play on the daily, was in effect as it got to $5, told him I was selling 1/2 my position.
BUT…GPL-
.. for those who think its ‘management screwing GPL stock holders’ ” this stock is dead” etc. It was a parabolic move (and a great A-B-C up on a wkly chart ) from $1 to $5.
It needs to consolidate the gains, which is usually a pullback. Its still at $4…and from $2 to $5, now $4, it now looks to be consolidating and a flag pattern.
If no one owned it, and saw the chart (look at a 1 yr wkly chart of GPL) Most would be screaming buy here! 🙂 Perception plays big in Investing.
So First Majestic is now Apple Adam?
GMAFB. These are silver miners and they all basically pull metal out of the ground. Is there a good reason why AG rallied over 100% in a few months? Who knows.. Will it keep on trucking, most likely.
You’ve heard Gary’s warnings about individual miners. I felt like I was pushing my luck. Good luck Mr. Livermore. I’m sure you are making millions.
Alex, Speaking of gaps, LODE finally makes a move.
Why do so many of you guys equate “leverage” with “options/calls/puts”?
Are you aware they aren’t the same thing?
Alex, can you do a read on MVG? I do a lot of PnF research and it broke out today on what looks like great volume.
this is probably a stupid question.
butt… anywho…
how is the price of gold determined?
is physical price chasing option price or vice versa?
TZ, So if silver bullion out performs during C waves, what do you see for the A wave?
JAYHAWK , Allow me to add
I just re-read LIVERMORES “sit tight when you know you’re right”. He didnt know cycles, so he got into a bull and Rode it through…D-Waves and all. Should we?
Will you?
AAPL went from your $10 buy to $80, then DOWN to $50,Then to $200 THEN a yr later it was at $70!! THEN, off to where it is now.
So you , ADAM, would have rode it from $50 to $200 to $80… and now are going to ride the D-wave??
It wasnt a straight move up for AAPL…And Traders (ON HERE) do sell when they have reason too (as I did and Jayhawk ).
SLV cannot close red. I will not have it.
SB, can u please have SLV close in the green today and make sure that “everything is okay”?
Thanks SB
Alex, I was thinking about NG. I know you added NG and MDW.
What else you holding now?
PS. Shoot me an email…It’s on my profile if you click it.
OHIO ROB
MVG looks great here , the high volume break out above previous highs is sweet.
As for the pullback today, it could be a buying gift…Look at it on a 1 or 2 day chart with Volume, 15 mninute interval. The selling is drying up volume -wise.
That is ( on a 2 day chart) a nice flag forming.
It looks very good to me.
My comment
‘JAYHAWKS, let me just add’…was meant to be in Jayhawks defense…adding to his reply–asking the one who quoted Livermore if he is going to sit tight and ride this bull now to 2016 without selling…like livermore, and like the aapl buyer at $10.
>TZ, So if silver bullion out performs during C waves, what do you see for the A wave?
I guess it will (over) correct rather violently as all securities do when they go nuts to the upside. Gold will likely be the more solid metal during the correct (as in past.)
Silver will then probably follow previous cycles and slowly resume outperforming as we recover and go back up – once again going crazy and outperforming again during the next crazy phase.
Does anyone have a list of all the silver miners they can share? Just post or email me by clicking my profile. Thanks.
Livermore lost everything and blew his brains out.
AG off more than $2 of its highs…the ride has been parabolic 🙂 and is due for some consolidation
It Beta is amazing compared to SLW..almost 3X both ways
and looks like people on this board sold AG this morning as well
where is new money flowing into?
And ADAM..no offense bro-
I wish everyone on here the best.
Just that Jawhawk ‘posts’ his buys and sells, so he’s not being cocky with his ‘double’, he posts his losses too.
we just trade regularly and share info, and I sold AG too-so wanted to explain the AAPL went from $200 to $$70…a trader may have been able sell and rebuy that too 🙂
And I may be rebuying AG in the future too. Best wishes.
Jayhawk ..got the email address
Hi ALEX,
got a question for you…I got the William O’Neil book
Can you please send me your email address?
or can you please shoot me an email at [email protected]
Thanks you
If you got in SIL at its inception, in 06′, you got screwed. You’d now only be up 38% if you had held that baby for 5 years.
Gary … just wondering. My post today was my point of view about dollar, eurusd and silver.
Provided via a link to another blog where i ´had posted the content.
Now what happened?
As usual Poly “attacked” my posts – as usual with the same type of hatred ala “as I have said many times – there is a bubble in blogs”.
Now – that for me is a hidden attack. In my blog his post would have been deleted. Because it is NOT necessary and produced nothing but sort of disgust.
He didn’t comment with a word about the content – just that “bubble in blogs”.
Accordingly I told him arrogant – because in my view THAT IS ARROGANT. And nothing else but arrogant. And additionally attemting to say “get away with your stuff”.
If that is your type of justice – then so may it be.
In that case you as a blow owner and your board (obviously represented by Poly) has chosen to treat Hammy as unwelcome – and as person nongrata.
So may it be.
As with that kind of justice I have nothing to share with.
Jayhawk,
Ok. You know best. What book was written about your massive trading success? I’d like to read it and get my learn on.
Good article
http://www.gold-prices.biz/gold-prices-update-06-april-2011/#more-2344
bamster,
Although I cannot promise SLV won’t close red, I can say it’s not a concern to me. This feels like a natural area for people to ring the register, and in fact we’re even seeing some of that on this blog today. I suspect they might even be right for a day or two, but it’s not worth losing our positions IF our intention is to ride the C-wave. To each his own, but if anything I will see if the pullback give me opportunity to add to NUGT.
I can also promise that I’ll print forever because I have to. Thus, Everything is OK!
NIKE
Got that email if you want to delete that post
Jayhawk,
My success is totally irrelevant. I posted a quote that I came across in the Stock Trader’s Almanac. I thought it was relevant to today since we’ve waited for five months for a breakout in the $HUI index. It breaks out yesterday – everyone is selling today. Where’s the discipline that Gary preaches? That’s why I’m here – to learn his discipline. What about you?
hamster,
you saved me $5k this morning. thanks.
Adam, Exactly what is your problem here?
Hammy, I always love that 3rd person talk!
Alex,
No offense taken, my friend. I’m from Jersey – we’re a little coarse out here. haha Forgive me if I come across that way.
It’s called “How I’m More Awesome Than Livermore and How YOU Can Be Too!” Check it out on Amazon.
Adam-
Buy some more AG and ride that puppy up 1000%. I wish you luck. I think I’ve got plenty of silver exposure and will keep my accounts topped off at 100% in something new. I’ve been very up front over of the past few years about the MANY trading blunders I’ve made. Not sure why you felt the need to call me out.
Brian,
You.
Adam, Just because his style does not match yours or Gary’s is no reason to go on the offensive. Jay has been here a long time. He has a good handle on the action.
Perhaps one of the miners is going to announce a share offering tonight, taking advantage of elevated prices to sell stock. Who knows? But if they do, it should give me shot to add to NUGT.
Or maybe miners just shake this off and continue their run, either way, Everything is OK.
Perhaps one of the miners is going to announce a share offering tonight, taking advantage of elevated prices to sell stock. Who knows? But if they do, it should give me shot to add to NUGT.
Or maybe miners just shake this off and continue their run, either way, Everything is OK.
Jay,
LMAO! Now that’s a book I’d like to read.
It’s tough living in Japan (well, not because of potential radiation)…. put an optimistic limit order on my April GG calls and it blew right through it while I was sleeping.
Gary, you have to pick juniors with good fundamentals, but even then things can go wrong. Great Panther does not necessarily have the best fundamentals. If you are going to be a serious junior investor then you have to look at the Canadian-only listed companies. First Majestic is a great company but I don’t think it would necessarily be the momo stock as it is now if it were not for the NYSE listing.
If you are just “cycle investing/speculating” then I would stick to ETFs.
Jayhawk, I own a lot of AG. Should I be worried? What’s your opinion? Thanks
Jay,
Let’s keep this civil. I’m just trying to say that there’s no real reason to sell it. It hasn’t violated any pivots and the $USD is breaking down (again) today. You’re selling purely on emotion ‘cuz your gains registered a number. We’re trying (presumably) to become better traders and that means taking your emotions out of this. I hope you’re right and you catch AG, or MVG, or HL or whatever you move into lower & ride it up 200%. I wish you nothing but the best.
Adam said…
Jayhawk,
My success is totally irrelevant. I posted a quote that I came across in the Stock Trader’s Almanac. I thought it was relevant to today since we’ve waited for five months for a breakout in the $HUI index. It breaks out yesterday – everyone is selling today. Where’s the discipline that Gary preaches? That’s why I’m here – to learn his discipline. What about you?
I sold a 13% position after it moved 100%. I sold some April calls that were up nicely since they expire next week.
I’ll be rolling that into new positions. No selling of EVERYTHING here. Are you 100% in since Jan?
Gary preaches against holding large positions in a single junior or using options. So really just getting my positions more in line with what Gary preaches.
Jay, I just checked Amazon and that thing is sold out already. Some guy named Adam bought every copy they had.
I wish you best, man. Good luck!
ROFLMAO @ Brian
Waka waka waka!!
Eamonn-
Nothing wrong with AG that I can see. Adam is most likely right, I’m sure my emotions got the best of me here.
I did move some $ into NG. My only gold play now!
Adam-
No sweat…I was born in NJ and lived there after college for several years. I still have that uptight blood in me myself. 🙂
Jayhawk, thanks. I’m holding tight on my AG
Brian
Would that be you hangliding on the beach in that pic?
And yes, Lode did have a breakaway gap. I like that one on a 1 yr chart…looks like its forming a cup.
That was indeed me strapped in that glider!
I’ve always wanted to try hang gliding. Maybe this summer I’ll give it a shot, after the C-wave is complete.
See if I can spot my pile of cash from high above. 🙂
Adam,
Sarcasm isn’t appreciated here, at least by most folks. IMO it’s just an attempt on your part to be mean to someone, to ridicule them, to make them look foolish.
We not here to try to make each other look foolish. We’re here to share information.
If you disagree with a post, by all means, share that and explain why. But it is possible to do that without trying to make the other person look like an idiot.
Shalom Bernanke, can you see anything wrong with AG? I know you are very smart so I’d appreciate your thoughts… I have a large position in AG
I sold 20% of my AG this morning and rolled the proceeds into a pilot position in MVG. I expect AG to pull back, as it’s quite overbought, but continue to hold 80%. Similar strategy NG, SVM, IAG, ANV, AUMN, etc. through their pullbacks. Long & strong into May.
E, I am still holding AG. #6 now on Vestorvest out of 8000 stocks. That
crowd will hold as it is still ranked “BUY”:)
@MarkMarin, thanks for that :o)
@traderlady, thanks, I really appreciate that! I’m holding onto it. Just getting nervous – you know how it is !!
I held AG, but I also held MDW through a 40% pullback. Although I did pare MDW back by 1/3 near the top as the position became too big in my portfolio. I have had these blow up before. I expect both these stock to make higher highs though.
With AG, I don’t see anything in particular other than it’s had a huge run as have other miners. As I stated earlier, my only concern with the individual names right now is that managements might get tempted to sell stock and raise more capital (think GPL). This is why I’ll focus on NUGT. It has all the “juice” of our best names, without the company specific risk.
Because of the low volume I wouldn’t go in with one big buy order, but it seems to easily handle 1500-2000 shares at a clip as you work into a larger position. NUGT is also one I’m only riding through this C-wave, and will not hold any as we near the end.
With the other miners, I’m inclined to keep some position through the D-wave, but I haven’t determined the amount as yet.
In short, AG just seems more volatile than the rest. Bigger ups, and maybe bigger pullbacks when they occur.
pima,
Fair enough. It’s difficult to “hear” tone on the internet from friends let alone strangers.
Jesse didnt lose all his money before he died.
Thats a false rumor.
Sinclair’s dad knew him and he explains a lot of this misinformation for those interested.
@Brian – thank you for your thoughts
@Shalom Bernanke – thank you for you thoughts and insights. Much appreciated again
On second glance, I might be inclined to trim some AG (half?) and put the the proceeds in an etf like SIL or NUGT.
However, I would not sell AG just to move into another individual miner, and I absolutely hate buying a laggard. Anything not participating in the party-it’s probably for a reason yet to be disclosed.
So your only options are to cash out of extended AG, and go into another extended name (no reason for that). Or, put the proceeds into a “safer” etf, or sit tight. To cash out and sit in the bank is not an option to me.
I like SVM as well, but again, there is no way I’d exit AG to buy SVM…both have scored big gains.
Remember back in the summer of 2010 that I linked some analysis by Metal Augmentor that ranked First Majestic among the top choices. It was trading around CAD 4 in those days!
http://silveraxis.com/todayinsilver/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/mid_tier_silver_june_2010.pdf
@Shalom Bernanke: thanks again for your advice. much appreciated
DAYUM…
AG was down 3.5% when SLW was down .75%
now they’re even…this one high beta stock
AG has gone green! What a comeback!!
I’ll be back near the close to see how we finish.
Good luck PM bulls.
Slán leat, Shalom
also,
i just realized something about me..
gary is totally correct about this…when these stocks where down this morning, I couldn’t pull the trigger because of fear..i froze
I rather buy into strength and leave it for a month or two like
Gary – pretty new sub with a quick question. I am fully invested but have some new money coming online. Not trying to time the daily wiggles as to when to enter, but should I wait until you indicate that the daily cycle low is in, or is coming next day, etc? (i.e., not my own timing). Thanks!
Good interview with David Galland over at Casey Research similar to Garys’ QE3 prediction.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/cwc/casey-report-s-david-galland-major-policy-shift-ahead
Buyers becoming desperate?
Eamonn, The bottom line is I personally do not want to part with any of my silver miners. We have been planning and positioning for this for a long time. Now I watch. If I get extra cash I will do as SB suggests. NUGT. Other than that I have nothing to do.
I tried to buy some AXU options this morning, but there were still no Junes available, so I gave up. I am well positioned. Had my best day ever yesterday.
Really dumb question, but does anyone here hold SLV and, if so, why? If you believe in the long term silver thesis, why not go all in in AGQ?
Just looking for a reason to keep my existing SLV (besides getting hit with the cap gains).
Just as you don’t know when one will blow up. You don’t know when you will get a gift like GSDC delivered today. It has a good story just needs cash badly. Maybe they found it. Who knows. Only news is they are in testing phase. It has promise but no guarantees.
Gary what is your opinion on the Gov’t shut down. And if happens how do you think it will affect the price of PM’s??
gold silver troll said…
also,
“I just realized something about me..”
I say ..thats the most useful thing to learn!!
Some people may like to make a quick buck and move on. Others may prefer to identify an asset class in a secular bull market and hold it through the fullness of time. Nothing wrong with either approach long as it suits you.
I nibbled on NUGT yesterday…it is definitely a name I’m going to add more dry powder to, as I still have leverage I can use to bring me to 140%.
A couple hours ago it looked like a convenient pullback was in store (all the way down to $39.50, ha ha) but it’s already bounced back.
OK, so all you guys who sold the peak at 10am, bought back the low at 11am? Right?
🙂
In all honesty, you have a security which as been congesting for a MONTH. Last week the “powers that be” slammed it as hard as they could FOUR times including a brutal hit on friday.
So finally after clearly all attempts to drive it lower are exhausted, we crack the high and shoot up and you guys want to sell the FIRST DAY it breaks higher???
Seriously? Have you looked at breakouts before?
Unless this is a fakeout and unless you have some sort of knowledge that the dollar is NOT in trouble and the USA is NOT really bankrupt and things are NOT going to hell…then….I suggest you don’t sell on the first day of significant moves to new highs in a bull market.
Just my thoughts, of course.
And, of course, we could really drop for a day or so or even plunge back down to $1000. Anything is possible, but that doesn’t mean it is the way to *bet*.
I’m long and holding my positions. No change.
If I’m wrong and somehow yesterday/today was the top and we have a horrendous slide from here…then I’ll deal with it.
But selling a breakout in a bull market is not my idea of a good plan.
Well said TZ
Gary – long time subscriber, but mostly silent. First question for you. Are you still holding to your $50 price target on silver before the end of May?
Many thanks.
TZ said…
“OK, so all you guys who sold the peak at 10am…
-you guys want to sell the FIRST DAY it breaks higher???”
I didnt sell anything the first day “it” breaks higher. “it” being gold, right? I didnt sell any Gold at the open 🙂
I DID sell some AG…thats a stock ticker that went from $14 to almost $28 in 4 wks. 🙂
ALEX,
I’m just curious whether that’s Woody Harrelson and Demi Moore in your photo?
Whats going on with GPL? I thought every recommendation I saw on this blog was supposed to go green right away and stay that way? or have I just been spoiled? 🙂
Dan, I’m going with spoiled!
TZ-
Weren’t you the one lecturing us about how lame miners, how stupid we are for using options?
I moved the AG money into SIL
I’ve been a bit disappointed with SLW for the past little while. Yes I know we had a good day yesterday. But there has been a couple of days last week and today where silver has been up and it’s been down. Are we still all good?
Power Corrupts
LOL…come on, cant you give me something a little more encouraging, like Demi and …ahhh…Jason Bourne??
Hi Guys,
I’m in a 2 (so far) day power and internet outage.
I thought Ga. Tech was hard. This blog is worse.
Drop your pencil and you’re two weeks behind.
Adam,
Thank you.
You’re right, and I forget that sometimes too. Maybe I was reading something into your posts that weren’t there. As you said, it’s difficult to tell tone of voice when the “conversation” is written rather than spoken.
Good luck with whatever trades you’ve got going.
Brian,
I think you are right, spoiled it is…..thanks to Gary and some pretty good traders on this blog!
>SIL and NUGT will be my focus, if I even get an opportunity to add.
Don’t know why. SIL I’ve already discussed is a dog. And NUGT is a poor performer as well. Not only that it is a 2x so you have decay.
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NUGT:SLV&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p01593678921
Why not wait until stocks are CLEARLY outperforming metal on a ongoing and continuous basis? So far that is not the case and single days or a few weeks don’t qualify.
If and when they do, the shift will likely be permanent until the end of this bull market and will last months and years. So how much do you think you lose by waiting for it to become true before jumping in?
The stocks are not going to go vertical in 24hrs and suddenly and permanently reach a massive overvaluation point. They will begin to outperform over a period of time. That outperformance will grow and pick up more…and more…and more.
You’ll find me in stocks at that point. Not before.
Just how I see it. Opinion only.
WES
Why the power loss? weather?
I live in New England and we had a snow/wind storm with 40 m.p.h. winds sustained and gusts of 75 m.p.h. So many trees went down Everywhere-we Lost power for 8 days in cities all around us and it ROTS!!
You have my sympathy.
No generator, so I had hit different places to charge my phone, families houses to shower-emptied the frig/freezer outside and racoons tore it all up. Toilets didnt flush,trees all over the house & yard had to be cut up, etc etc etc My Internet use was Barnes and Noble…hmmmm
Come to think of it…Fond memories (that I never want to live through again 🙂
Best wishes WES
TZ,
I totally agree with you.
I just wanted add AG this morning, but I missed.
It is same feeling that last fall that correction will be intra day only.
Not a deep,but breif.
Regarding GPL
Just looking at it on a 6 month weekly chart. You will love that flag pattern, it goes on the “maybe later’ watchlist.
See that run up Aug to Dec…that following pullback was tough too..
If it breaks upward at some point, I think it’ll be a good buy once again. we’ll see.
goodnight for now
You guys are cracking me up!!
Frustrated with SLW…
SIL is a dog…
Man, SLW is up 8% in three days. Just broke to a new high. Its chart is a thing of beauty.
SIL is up over 20% in the last month. and 150% in the last year. Woof woof. Come here little doggie. I’ll walk with ya!
lol
gary
any thoughts on SIL from you. just wait and let it pop later?
Alex,
Just saw your post about open wifi. I would generally say don’t go to any webpages that are sensitive. If you MUST the bare min. is to make sure you’re going to a page that’s via https://. At least that’s a bit more secure. However, if you’re always on free wifi and want to do your banking or trading, I would suggest going through a SSL proxy or connect via a VPN and route all your http traffic through that. But going back to your original question, if you were using HTTPS when you logged on to your broker which I’m assuming you were, I wouldn’t worry about being compromised too much.
>Weren’t you the one lecturing us about how lame miners, how stupid we are for using options?
Yes, I was.
I’ll review the points I asserted again:
-In the tail end of a major wave silver will beat everything.
-There WILL be exceptions of stocks that DO beat silver.
These exceptions will have the following disadvantages that DISQUALIFY them in *my* book:
1) Any stock that you find that MIGHT out perform silver in a blowoff will NOT outperform in the NEXT blowoff (and didn’t in the previous usually). You continually have to search and pick and adjust and GUESS at what the next ‘hit’ is. You will get this wrong often and it becomes a secondary job to simply guessing the direction of the entire gold and silver market (which is already hard enough – why add problems?)
2) Any stock which does outperform silver you would be CRAZY of putting most/all of your net worth in due to company specific risk (like ALL AG or ALL GPL). One announcment, issuance, mine closure or otherwise and you are toast. (SLW is exception to this rule as I see it). Notice how GPL was a darling and suddenly it isn’t performing and people are worried – case and POINT.
3) Since you would be crazy to put most of your money in these single high flyer stocks (which are usually small and very volatile) you will need to pick MULTIPLE such stocks. This brings you back to the problem of picking stocks again – often with losers. Often having to switch around as they come and go. And once you pick multiple stocks you have now essentially created and ETF or INDEX and smoothed the return lower (negating much of the “overperformance” you thought was so great with the one or two single stocks.)
As for options, the majority of people playing them here are making LESS money at HIGHER risk than if they simply got regular leverage (with tight stops) on a plan security. I promise you the options dealers will win. Give it time.
And…
SIL is outperforming handily.
FRANCUS,
This is Tom, a 1 year and 1 month sub..
My story only,,,I was born in a barn,,,no, not that story. I joined 3/18ish/2010 after 2.5 years of losing money in my IRA. When I bought, I was already down CONSIDERABLY.
I took a draw-down of 11% in April- July and then August 1st my IRA exploded and I’ve never looked back.
I do miss my wife, the trailer and my dog though. Oh, no!
Welcome aboard…
Tom
There, I opened another page of posts.
I think the odds of someone bidding silver above $40 before heading home for the weekend tomorrow are slim. I’m guessing we see another tame day.
….except that tomorrow is only Thursday. Oops.
Fusby:
>SLW is up 8% in three days. Just broke to a new high. Its chart is a thing of beauty.
>SIL is up over 20% in the last month.
>SIL is outperforming handily.
I’m aware you like the gains you have, but a professional player doesn’t say “I’m up 8%, great!”.
They say I’m up 8%. Could I have been up MORE? at less risk? Is this the best I can do? What are the pros/cons of alternatives?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLW:SLV&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p33204522469
SLW hasn’t outperformed silver since SEPT. So you have company specific risk vs just owning the metal.
SIL is up 20% in the last month.
Ok, but *I* am not satisfied with that statement. What if you could have made 100%? Why do you stop with a random number and call it ‘good’?
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL:SLV&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p50890992045
SIL is down *dramatically* against straight silver for months and months.
And silver went up MORE than SIL in the last month.
I do not agree that silver is outperforming handidly. I also will not stop my performance returns at a random number and call it ‘good’. I want to know what other stuff is doing and at what risk.
CORRECTION last paragraph:
>I do not agree that *SIL* is outperforming handidly. I also will not stop my performance returns at a random number and call it ‘good’. I want to know what other stuff is doing and at what risk.
TZ,
Remind me, how much are you levered up?
Guys,
I really don’t have much of a desire to force anybody to invest in any particular way.
I’m stating things that appear to me to be FACTS.
If people don’t want to look at them. Or if they want to call them opinions instead. Fine.
It isnt’ my money. You will live or die by your own choices.
I post my comments, casually, for discussion and just to contribute. I’m really not trying to lie to anybody or give bad statements. If that is what you think these are then that is ok. You SHOULD always double check and doubt anything someone says.
CAT,
I’m about 6x now on metal futures. I was higher, but the leverage drops as gains occur.
I suspect we have about another month or 6 weeks of strong gains ahead.
I also suspect we will have 1 or 2 add points for more gold and silver before the top. I will increase (with small stops) as possible.
Not to be critical (truly) but you’d better be a wizard at picking just the right stops to not be whipsawed like hell.
What do you use to calculate stops?
TZ,
Are they facts? Looking at your chart, from the start (April 2010) to the current date, SLW is handsomely outperforming SLV, from a 0.90 to 1.20 SLW to SLV Ratio.
What am I missing?
Also, your chart clearly shows that at the latter parts of a intermediate cycle top (blowoff) Miners really outperform, not the metal. See period Nov-Dec on your chart. Same can be seen during past C-Wave tops.
So it stands to reason that any coming C-Wave top will see that ratio get stretched all the way back up towards 1.50 and possibly beyond, so we should expect SLW to blow away SLV performance, at the top.
I do agree with you on the company specific risk and trying to pick a basket of stocks that will be SLV is much harder to do.
>Are they facts? Looking at your chart, from the start (April 2010) to the current date, SLW is handsomely outperforming SLV, from a 0.90 to 1.20 SLW to SLV Ratio. What am I missing?
What you are missing is that this large breakout, surge and most recent (and final) move in metals started in SEPT. (The final *final* move started end of jan).
Sure, you can go back and pick any date you want and show some slw outperformance. Why aren’t you going back to 2008/09 and showing SLW UNDERperformance?
See my point?
I’m going of RECENT action which clearly shows no outperformce as we enter this final stretch (as also seen historically).
YEs…from sept to now there are clearly fluctuations up and and down in the ratio which means at SOME times SLW outperforms. At OTHER times SLV outperforms.
But the clear average or straight line trend is FLAT.
So if it is flat, then why do you want the additional task of trying to trade/catch a SUB-trend within the flat zone? YOu have just as much odds of being right as wrong – and yet the overall average is FLAT.
So randomly you will NOT beat and still pick up the additional company specific risk.
Oh Francus,
one more thing I recommend;
Avoid controversy at all costs.
Lay low and support your local art dealer.
😉
Oh..and of course with SLW you will have a security that gaps violently, doesn’t trade 24hrs, can only leverage 2x (5x with SSFs), and doesn’t have favorable tax treatment over silver futures.
winner->silver futures
(at least that’s how I see it)
“Sure, you can go back and pick any date you want “
I’m not picking any date, I’m picking the start and end dates in your chart.
I believe you are picking the Sept date.
Futures are of course dangerous, not for everbody, and highly risky.
I do not recommend trading futures
🙂
Sorry to say, but I’m kinda spent with the ‘outperformance’ topic.
I’ve given enough of my opinions and links/charts to demonstrate it from my viewpoint.
Each of you can evaluate and decide.
I wish you the best on it and, YES, almost ANYTHING metals will go up – so that is not a concern.
We will all make money. Do what works for you.
I’m just trying to do my best to maximize my time and money and these are certain considerations I’m looking at when placing my bets.
POLY,
>I’m not picking any date, I’m picking the start and end dates in your chart. I believe you are picking the Sept date.
The chart is not created for the purpose of starting at the left. I simply have a default chart I use adjusted to best viewing.
I’m asking you to focus on specific points, dates, and events on that chart instead.
The markets clearly started certain phases in Sept and end of Jan.
If you want to only look at the left side of charts, then I’ll reformat it to including the slide of 2008 and then we can discuss SLW performance.
Work with me please.
POLY,
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLW:SLV&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p33204522469
Can I simply ask if you see and agree that SLW has gone nowhere against SLV (in *aggregate) since sept?
I’m aware there are moves up and down during that time. They average out to a zero.
Truck loads of iShares ETF funds sold today….I wonder why? http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLW:SLV&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p65393570144
If I change the chart to 3yrs, does it become clear that something has changed or BROKEN since approx SEPT of last year?
That “broken” part is why I don’t have SLW. At the end of a large move (like what we are expecting now), the stocks “break”.
SLW has done this multiple times in the past should you choose to go look.
These are my views only. To each their own.
TZ,
I’m trying to work with you, but you’re picking points too. I’m not trying to being difficult. I too am primarily (90%) in just leveraged SLV for these reasons and that I don’t want to be playing tag with miners and stressing over each one in my basket.
BUT, I don’t see your argument, sorry. I believe the miners will outperform SLV into the the later parts of intermediate cycles and certainly at C-Wave tops. If you spend the time and the research you will get even better results with miners. Don’t forget this is an argument of comparing just SLV vs Miners, not your 6x futures contracts to miners 🙂
“Can I simply ask if you see and agree that SLW has gone nowhere against SLV (in *aggregate) since sept?”
I agree.
Also add SLW has done poorly since Dec and fabulously since April.
Since I’m jumping on stocks and saying they aren’t seeming to perform (yet!), I will address a question DG asked earlier.
He wanted to know when I would get into stocks.
Not too difficult to answer:
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:GLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82327860989
Here simply is the gold stocks ETF against gold.
I think we can all agree that the performance is dead FLAT for 2 yrs. (Please *ignore* the slide down and rebound up during the crash. That was a special event. Let’s focus on the steady situation.)
So…when might I become interested in stocks?
Well..I think every single person on this board would have a quick and brillant answer exactly the same as mine:
When that ratio starts to bend higher, breaks out clearly over about 0.48 or so, and puts in a trajectory that any rational person would look at and say “hmm…looks like something has changed”.
No harder than that.
Is this arguable?
For those who think stocks will eventually outperform, I agree. For those who think they should be in NOW and waiting for who knows when…why?
When the start to outperform, it will be a shift that maintains for years. Why try to get in before, the change will start slow and accellerate over time.
If you thought that you needed to get in a year ago…you are still waiting.
Wait another year? two?
who knows.
Why not just let the chart make the decision?
I’m inclined to follow TZ.
up almost 100% since march 15 just following silver with a 6x leveradge.
no company liabilities
and if your convinced sikver will go up, why no leveradge.
i appoligize to gary in advance
guy, how do you get 6x leverage?
Guy,
The argument is SLV vs Miners.
Not 6x leverage, you could get leverage on Miners too you know!
i use turbo’s from RBS.
i’m not sure if you can get them in the states.
great product if you handle it with care
and following gary’s advice for in and out
TommyD
Thanks for the welcome, and good luck to you!
Francus
Poly,
my product only follows the spotprice of the metals.
me personally, i don’t have the time nor the knowledge to follow what’s going on with the diffrent miners.
sorry if i’ve upset you though
Any April Call stragglers are hopefully closing up shop into this strength.
See you all tomorrow, let’s see what Jean-Claude Trichet has to say, should be an interesting day.
PS: I’m NOT looking for anybody to “follow me” and do NOT recommend 6x leverage or anything else of the sort.
Gary has voiced comments on leverage and I would say he has very valid points.
I’ve only given some comments as to what I’m doing and what I’m looking at. I have my own style suited to me – for better or worse.
Stay safe.
Hi Guy,
You didn’t upset me 🙂 LOL
Just clarifying the point. I agree with you too, I play SLV leveraged for that same reason.
Good night all.
TZ,
didn’t mean i’m one of your minions.
just that i follow the way you think.
i’m not native english speaking, guess there’s the problem.
GUY,
No problem with you or language.
I said “no follow” because I do not want people to do something they do not understand or agree with. I do not want people to lose money or get hurt with my comments.
Each person must think and do things on their own. What I do is not for many people. It is not easy.
TZ
wouldn’t mind a heads up when you get out.
that’s always the hardest part for me.
Anyone know approximately what time (either EST or PST) that Trichet (from the ECB) makes the announcement on rates?
Thanks.
TZ,
I am curious as I have been playing this PM market for years but I have never had the kahunas to use 6X leverage. Are you invested 100% of your portfolio at 600%? ie. your entire portfolio is wiped out should silver drop 15-20%? Is this just you “trading” portfolio?
Thanks for all the great posts btw.
>wouldn’t mind a heads up when you get out. that’s always the hardest part for me.
I intend to clearly indicate in ALL CAPS with posts when I get out.
I’m going to try and call the top and see if I win the golden burrito
🙂
DAN,
don’t know for TZ, but the 6x might of been from my post. I’m +90% in metals and the rest is leveradged.
I’ve got my stops to protect me.
TZ-
You can’t say look at SLW vs SLV since Sept, it’s gone nowhere. That time period included the intermediate top and correction into Jan when the miners get extra sold off. Silver itself did hold up better than the miners, but most here are playing the intermediate cycles.
The one last summer through early Dec clearly shows SLW and SIL outperforming SLV, especially toward the end of the intermediate.
Last Summer
This cycle I’m showing SLW leading SLV so far. SIL is underperforming, but I think will out perform coming down the stretch.
We will see.
This comment has been removed by the author.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-06/portugal-seeks-eu-bailout-after-yields-surge.html
Another country blows up and goes BK. Needs money.
Time for more bailouts and printing. (Gold higher afterhours now).
Remember…these bankruptcies will continue from country to country…up and up the chain, until – in the end – the USA goes BK too.
It is all just a matter of time.
(Most countries including the US are bankrupt, but it takes a while for people to turn off the TV and wake up to reality.)
the fouth turning is coming..
Since HUI has cleared the tower, I would expect better performance from SIL vs SLV.
So we will see
On other news Portugal goes to the well.
guy, “what’s the fouth turning”? sounds like a horror movie
guy,
That makes more sense. Although I invest most of my net worth, beyond my brick and mortar assets, I rarely go beyond 150% and ive always considered myself to be extremely aggressive.
eamonn,
just want to warn you, i always try to be prepared for the worse, hence my big metal position.
is a book of Strauss and Howe about how history repeats in a cyclical manner. meaning a lot doom ahead of us.
i’ll probably be the laughing stock of my friends within a few years, at least i hope.
following link explains it a bit, if it isn’t true it’s stays a nice piece of literature.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25728.html
Interesting, guy. I also have a certain sense of foreboding about the future. I have my own thoughts about globalisation and where it will lead us, and I find the current debt levels in the USA & Europe to be forbidding. Boom-Bust-Inflation-Bust. China seems to have a real estate bubble now. I follow Marc Faber. He illustrates his website with images of painting by Kaspar Meglinger: “The Dance of Death”. I wonder is he on to something?
Interesting debate on the metal vs miner issue. Both sides have valid points, and we’ll just have to wait to see which performs better. I’ve been on both sides over the last couple years, mostly DGP until the last summer, where I began to buy miners (although leverage is an entirely different topic). I also have no aversion to metals futures even though I haven’t traded them in awhile (last time was ’07-’08).
Both have risks, and yet both should perform well. Only time will tell, but I appreciate the lively debate.
Let’s see how it all shakes out. 🙂
I’m not wild about Denninger, but thought this interesting:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2498459
I wonder if people will stand for Geithner “borrowing” from their retirement? Not much longer, I suspect.
ECB announcement is tomorrow april 7th at 7:45AM EST
RYAN
Thanks for that answer. I looked into ssl proxy and found that interesting! It sounds like Many on here use public wireless without worries due to encrypted password log on, the http:// security, etc.
Do you recommend any specific one,since I googled SSL PROXY and some came up free of charge, others not?
Or do you think it’s really even necessary at all?
I love this blog for the ability to ask a question and get several really helpful/good answers from people who are informed.
Thanks again guys
Alex, if all connections to your broker are encrypted with a minimum of 128bit encryption you are safe in using a public wifi for your communications with your broker.
Alex,
Eammon makes a good point. Also, you may want to check CNET.com, under downloads, Security, and look for what they have free, and highly rated. If you download one, make sure to test for conflicts right away, and uninstall if need be.
Sorry folks I just don’t have time to read through the blog anymore and answer questions. I expect many of the long time subs can answer most questions for any new comers.
If you have a question only I can answer then send me an email and I’ll do my best to get back to you.
THX EAMONN and San Diego!
GARY
when I was on vacation,I would be out and come back to 400 or 600 posts! Wow
Most is intelligent conversation and a tribute to the success or your services and the caliber of people/investors you have drawn!
Thx
Gary,
I know why you climb the cliffs now. So that once you get to the top, you stand on the edge and yell till your lungs hurt:
“WILL YOU PEOPLE PLEASE LEAVE ME ALONE?”
alex
Just to be sure you are really getting the reason for additional encryption…
I generally agree that https exchanges via YOUR computer are safe (not so on pubic computers). The real question is do you mind people reading your mail or any work you might pass along on a non-htpps connection? Do you communicate sensitive corporate info with co-workers? The list goes on. I have seen a link hacked while sitting in a coffee shop in London. Made me feel good that I was using my “Hotspot Sheild”. this is maybe off subject, but I also saw a guy get really bent out of shape when his blue tooth link was hacked. The point is the folks who wish to dig into your business are out there.
The choice to use full encrption is a personal one and only you can say if you want/need it. How you’d feel might surprise you if you are ever outed on even some ordinary emails.
Alex,
Sorry did I say SSL in the previous message? I meant to say SSH. Here’s a link that will help you setup up a SSH Tunnel.
http://www.dotcomunderground.com/blogs/2008/12/11/putty-ssh-tunnel-to-hide-ip/
The thing with this whether you’re tunneling your traffic through a SSH connection or a VPN, you’re going to need your home PC to act as the SSH server / VPN server.
Generally I don’t think it’s necessary if you’re just reading the news or whatever but I highly recommend you ensure you’re at least going to sensitive sites via HTTPS (that includes checking your email). Let me know if you have any other questions.
PS. Since I got your attention, any thoughts on SLW? We’re still all good? I’m not freaking out or anything just wasn’t impressed last week with it and would have liked a green close like the metals.
SD Jack, I had those same thoughts. LOL I can only imagine how much work it gets to be saying the same thing over and over again.
🙂 I am set and just ready for this bull ride to hit the top and hear that it’s time to get out and how it is best done.
Alex,
Tell me how you were able to be out all day and not check more frequently while on vacation?
I am so worried being gone for 6 weeks (leaving Saturday) if we are told that day it’s time to exit or will we get a day or two days notice. I am just hoping I can get texts messages from the US and follow the posts as I don’t fly back until May 21st.
Hopefully I will see the signal that way and head to the closest computer access I can get. I am going to try and take my mind off this now that all buys are set. And just look for moves up in the stops and take care of those. I still don’t know how I am going to do this, but guess will figure it out.
…at ease,
Spoken like a true Marine!
The whining from some people, and the mental hopscotch from others who jump in and out of trades when unwarranted, except out of fear, was troubling for this new sub & it was starting to get to me.
A person pays for Gary’s guidance, and either criticize or undermine it with their fearfulness.
OMG, I need to stop using so many multi-syllabic words on this blog…
SD Jack, Oooh, I worry, I just try not to put it on Gary and try to stick to the questions I need answered to follow the plan. But I do worry as I am still learning so much to absorb and plan and execute… all new to me. But I trust Gary’s wisdom in getting us there, as long as I can hear his instructions from where I am at when we hit the top. 🙂
at ease,
If you brought a laptop and checked in, in the morning and night, that would probably help ease your mind? But think of it this way, let’s just say Gary says to sell and you’re on the plane back and can’t sell, well Gary did say he’s always early so maybe it’ll be a plus heh. I’m trying to give you some happy thoughts 🙂 I know whenever I’m out of town or on vacation, I get antsy without an internet connection so I know where you’re coming from.
Question for those looking at NUGT…
I heard a lot of buzz on NUGT,
Any indication this is a good pick to move the remaining GLD I hold over to this 2x ETF to fill my gap for miners that are not in my current mix.
Ryan, Thanks for the happy thoughts. Funny, I actually planned my trip so I am flying both ways on Saturdays. Quick story, I signed up for a service and it was tips on options trades (which you have to get in quick before price goes up). Wouldn’t you know the first tip I got on my phone was right as I was shutting it off to take off on a plane trip. It drove me nuts and by the time I got off the plane market was closed.
LOL, but I just put it behind me and said, don’t put yourself in that position and you won’t have to worry. Since then, I have learned there is always a tip. If you don’t get this one, there is always another. But that said, I don’t want to be left holding my bag of goodies on the rapid D descent. 😉
…at ease,
For the reasons you state, are the main reasons that I subscribed to SMT. We are paying him for his guidance and competence in walking us thru the minefields, getting us to the other side in one piece, but with our pockets full.
We should all stay the course.
As for other services where they give you the options plays, I’ve lost tons, paying too much to them, when I’ve learned to do it on my own, make money, losing less. Especially infuriating to get a “tip” after they’ve executed, and then they hold onto the position too long, making a winner into a loser. Never again will I part with my hard-earned money by paying these incompetnet boobs!
Remember, advisory newsletters are really a dime a dozen, but the real deals, the money makers, are much harder to find!
San Diego Jack, can you recommend any other newsletters?
SD Jack, Yep, exactly, I only found SMT early Feb, I sure wish it was January. Would have been much better on my accounts. Anyhow, happy to have found Gary as he is at the micro level that I wanted to learn. I also lost a lot of $ and time dealing with tips, news services and other gold advisors who only tell you to be in and give you slim pickings advice. Meanwhile you know they are racking it up and only give you the tip after they are in. I cancelled all my other services and didn’t even ask for refunds on the others when I found Gary, and just told them to please take me off their list as I didn’t want their services anymore. Too much noise when you are trying to conentrate on learning. I have one GOLD advisor that I paid for the year and it’s pitiful what he recommends. I guess he assumes everyone only has $5k to invest and he is much more at the macro level. By the time he notifies us of anything, I feel like responding, Uh Yeah, where have you been. Gary is so far ahead of the rest. Just soooo happy with Gary, SMT site and the other participants here. I have a feeling that after this big wave, a lot of close relationships will be formed. They say folks who go through traumatic or uplifting events together experience a longtime kinship. Another added benefit.
SD Jack, Oh yes and by the time they tell you to sell, profits are gone. LOL. I got wise on that one and as soon as I saw a 25% + profit, I would take it and get out. Then along they would come and say sell and take your 10 to 15%. Unbelievable! And they would consistantly do that.
Eamonn, Stick with Gary and the ones you have heard about on here, like John or Doc. Stay away from the others, they will just take your money and have you chasing your tail. Just be happy you are here with Gary and SMT site. Good advice here with this group. Don’t have to have it all, just a few good buys will do it for you. Learn this bull as you have until 2016 to ride this sector.
…at ease, I am subscribed to Doc, who is John? Have u a link?
Eamonn, I know it seems there is so much out there to learn, but you are learning here as we go. Just concentrate on reading books, knowing your money is well invested working for you while you are learning about the market, trading techniques. If you get any doubts or fears you are missing out, just read Gary’s Goal statement on the main page to reinforce that you are in the right place for this bull run. The only sector in a bull run.
I casually watched Gary for 2 years before I subscribed.
🙂
No, I am not subscribed to either of those, just read the links when they are posted, let me see if I can find it for you. They both reinforce what Gary is teaching you. … let me see if I can find a link on the John fellow. Will get back to you.
Shalom Bernanke, are you subscribed to anyone else, if you don’t mind me asking? You seem to know your stuff very well!
ok, thanks …at ease :o)
SB, what took you so long to subsribe? Do you remember the fellow on here that is Gary’s partner, his website, John?
TSI Trader, John Townsend?
At ease,
John Townsend
http://www.thetsitrader.blogspot.com/
http://www.goldscents.blogspot.com/
yes, that’s it. There are a few others, but found these give you added information to Garys.
Eamonn, no sense in investing elsewhere when you can make money here with much less worries. This gives you plenty of time to learn trading and investing while you make money. Don’t spend time testing your money on every other thing out there, when you know you can test it here and the market bull will cover your mistakes. Speaking from experience… 🙂
Aaah yes, I read John’s blog too
some subscription services are absolute junk !! total con job feeding on naive people!!
Yes, that is what SD Jack and I were discussing. So many takers out there, it’s hard to find good and true informtion. I think all of us are amazed to find Gary and his site. How did you find him?
I came across Gary’s site through the TSI Trader site of John. Went from there. One of the few honest sites I found. I guess you find garbage in all walks of life
Speaking of con jobs – another blogger knocking off Gary’s work (posted earlier by someone else)?:
http://likesmoney.dojispace.com/
blammo, I guess more takers out there Gary has to worry same as we do. 🙂
I guess that`s why it seems like the TSI dude has it together. Just read one of his articles yesterday. He`s looking for about $1623 top on gold.
DG,
Where is your blog?
Steven
Doesn’t look like market is doing much, may have to wait for the Europe market to open. dollar is down a bit also.
Eamonn,
No, I don’t subscribe to any other advice. In 20 years trading I have never paid for another’s opinion. I consistently made money, but Gary added immeasurable value by helping me extract profit from larger moves. Before that, I made most of my gains from short term trades.
I’m careful what I listen to, as it’s more often a distraction than helpful, and that goes for media like CNBC.
In fact, I haven’t had the need or desire to pay attention to economic reports in the last few years, other than for conversation.
They provide no edge, while Gary does.
William and Ease,
Thanks a bunch on the detailed advice on the stansburry report recommendations 🙂
Verry helpful and much appreciated!
I’m wondering what the reaction in the dollar will be to a 25 basis point hike. I think that is already priced in.
What may not be priced in is a very hawkish statement following the rate hike or a 50 basis point rate hike (unlikely but possible especially with the German numbers this week).
Will this lead to a dollar decline and s top in the current cycle or will it cause a correction perhaps early and have a shortened daily cycle with the next one being the long daily cycle that includes a parabolic move.
What do other people think on these points and on what the ECB will do in the morning?
NEW POST
W
thanks, I appreciate that ( and yes, even if my email isn t that personal…I hate to think of others seeing emails and other info).
Ryan
THANKS a lot. You obviously have looked into this, and I appreciate the link. Now i will look into it too 🙂
And SLW is a good chart.The way I look at that is that it really wants to go higher, but it broke previous highs (March 7)on less volume. I ,More often than not, see these come back to that breakout areas and then take off.(there is a gap below that could fill still above the 20 sma), but Macd turning up, etc…these charts all look great to me!
AT EASE
Well, I was only gone for 10 days, and I use Garys cycle timing with my chart analysis. So I could check the charts in the morning and night, maybe lunch…and stay comfortable.
6 weeks is another story!!…but can you get online?? Bring a laptop? Internet Cafe?
If not, you need a special “AT EASE” plan maybe. A sell limit high above todays price? A sell trigger for GLD and your stocks? Kind of guess work, but you could safely sell half your positions that way.
For EX: You own 1000 SLW , sell 500 at limit of $65 or $70?? let the rest ride untill you get home? Tough dilemma!
Good interview Gary, thanks for posting it for us!
Alex, Yes bringing a laptop with limited service in some areas. So if you all see something going on, give a HOLLER AT ME SHOUT OUT on the blog like ATTENTION AT EASE! I have a blackberry that follows email tracking so will follow along to see what is going on and if things get heated, head to the internet site. 🙂
TZ, I found you arguments interesting, but also find some faults.
1. Your comparison of GDX:GLD. Few if any here invest in large cap miners. It has been well publicized of the hedge funds going long gold and shorting lg cap miners. Obviously you need to be using GDXJ for your comparison which shows a completely different picture.
2. You spoke of Sept being the peak in SLW:SLV, but it is very clearly in Dec. So it has been just for this cycle to date. Quite frankly SLW is turning or has already turned into a lg cap also. You are like a statistician here using what will make your point.
3. Most folks here following Gary are already 65% 2x SLV.
4. Your implication about options is probably mostly correct, but anybody buying at the intermediate bottoms as I did (Jay, Poly, and a few others) is currently up hundreds of percent now and may well outperform your 7x with little risk.
5. Few here will do futures for several reasons. Risk is most obvious. Account size is second. From reading you and about your tight stop, I reason your account isn’t large because these positions cause you long periods of sleep deprivation until you can breathe. Most folks do not care to live like that even for money. A well financed trader would place a trade with confidence, and a workable stop, and not live like that.
5. You said “Why not wait until stocks are CLEARLY outperforming metal on a ongoing and continuous basis? So far that is not the case and single days or a few weeks don’t qualify.”
Since the 08 bottom, your chart shows clear evidence that the trend line (SLW:SLV) did not break until January. You act like this has been going on forever. 12 weeks to be exact.
I don’t mind you stating your case, but wouldn’t it have saved a lot of typing and BS to have brought that 3 year chart up and said hey folks, we have a trend line break here. Clear and continual evidence indeed.
SB, it’s good to know that with all your experience that you can learn from Gary also. Says something about his capabilities.
Just keep telling us everything is good. It helps to reassure us newbies. But don’t forget to tell us when it isn’t looking good either. 😉
Eamonn,
Are you still on this blog?
Alex, a lot of us are newly venturing into the market as well as this C wave with SMT. So it helps to have experienced traders onboard to give us advice. Much appreciated. Thanks 🙂 I am confident in Gary and this site, just don’t want to let down my family as they are looking to me on this investment ride. So puts a little more pressure on me than just learning for the fun of it. So my biggest worry is disappointing them. But I try not to think about that as every position I take, I have to be confident on the outcome. I felt overleveraged before with lots of options, so sold out some and moved funds in 2x as stop losses were easier to use in the trading platform for selling triggers to keep moving up. I had to look ahead to the position I would be at that time (on the road). I held onto my GLDs June deep in the money, (kind of wished I hung on to AGQ and SLW options also), but oh well. Hindsight you know. Sure is a fun ride, but also nerve wracking at times. I can see how folks call it a rollercoaster ride. 🙂
…at ease,
I was reading either a current book or article on investing, and they were saying that because of the structure of the 2X & Ultra Long & Short ETF’s, that they should only be used as very short timeframe investments, as in no longer than 2-5 days.
Especially when using options. With options, hold no longer than 1-3 days. Thought you should know this.
Holding AGQ for only 2-5 days would not have been the best strategy during this C-wave now would it.
You know Gary,
It’s been awhile that I read that, so they may have been referring to options play only.
After all, when you buy AGQ, you are playing options thru their investment vehicle.
SD Jack,
I normally don’t use the 2x but that is what is recommended for this C wave for maximum gain and with stops in place per GLD should be ok. I sold off the options on AGQ once I had profits and used the funds for more AGQ. But understand where you are coming from in a normal market environment, but this is a BULL run! No worries 🙂
NEW POST
First time post.
Following as a lurker for some time.
Good ,accurate views ,IMHO.
Thought I would give a shout out from a poster over at Slope of hope.