I’ll try to post something financially related later today or tomorrow but for now I’ll do a comment cleaner and  let everyone know I did win my 9th national title over the weekend. I made new personal bests in both the Snatch (224 lbs.) and Clean & Jerk (266 lbs.) and won best lifter for the 50-54 age group.

440 thoughts on “LIFTING RESULTS

  1. Sandy101


    Just to clarify, my comment was not addressed to you at all. I think we were typing parallely and I ended up posting a couple second after you! I saw your comment today morning when I logged in.

    I hope the blog stays clean going forward:)

  2. pimaCanyon

    I sold my deep ITM GLD calls last week but did not roll them forward.

    Anybody adding here?

    I’m still heavily loaded, so I’m not scrambling to add. I would like to pick up a few deep ITM June or July calls this week, but I’m nervous about adding as gold approaches its all time high. Will it break out to new highs or will it pull back for a few days?

  3. Elad9000

    Great job this weekend Gary!
    Now let’s see of we can clean & jerk Gold above $1440 and squeeze our cheeks together enough to hold Silver above $38.

  4. ALEX


    In case you didnt read the last blog…CONGRATS! We’re all proud of you , and I was rooting for both YOU and GOLD to get to new highs…thx for leading the charge!

    These stocks look REAL Good.
    For example, look at SVM on a 10 day/15 minute chart.
    Cup&Handle break out with Much larger volume. SWEET!

    And AG…8% at one point

  5. Poly


    I’ve got some dry powder left too after re-balancing and working money between accounts. I would like to add some more, possibly even GLD calls as Gold is going to need to make a move sooner or later if we want the music to continue.

    But I’m going to wait for a confirmed breakout before adding, got more than enough to profit from a breakout.

  6. William


    I started moving april calls to may on Friday and have a decent amount to put back to work. I am waiting for some weakness to add today. SLV is extremely over bought on the 5 min chart and hopefully we will see some weakness soon. I am adding on any weakness over the course of this week.

  7. Poly

    Was going over statements this past weekend and noticed a chunk of AGQ buy confirmations around the $55 area from last summer. Still hold many of them, what a treat.

  8. pimaCanyon

    The other consideration re adding is that we are starting to get deep into the daily cycle. But we could still have 8 days or so of generally higher prices until the cycle tops in what will likely be a very right translated cycle. So it’s very possible that the next daily cycle low will come in at a price that is HIGHER than today’s prices.

  9. Poly


    Can only thank Gary for the AGQ trades!

    I agree on the cycle, $1,440 should be the extreme lower support for the next cycle. We just need to punch through and I think it will get busy making big new highs in a flash. Even late in the cycle is enough time for gold to make good new highs. You would think with the cycle count on 12 (?) that it would have to happen early this week.

    Interested to hear Gary’s thoughts on the cycle.

  10. Eamonn

    I am thinking of selling some of my AGQ to buy AG. Is there anything I should be wary of?
    Thanks for any caution,

  11. DG

    All: I may be bailing out of this blog, and sorry to leave. I have tried to be helpful to others as much as possible. SB’s latest rant was even worse than the previous two, and I know he will do it again when given the chance. I have twice posted the following and he has not responded:

    “Can you just refrain from the inflammatory stuff even if you are 100% right about everything? If you are not making a political statement why not take down both “Shalom” and Israel [as your location]? And if you are making a political statement, it doesn’t belong here. No one wants this to flare up again next month or the month after. I am suggesting a simple change that can prevent it—unless your desire is to goad people.”

    He once said “It’s a free country and I can post whatever the hell I want” which is true but also shows he has no interest in behaving. It’s only a matter of time before I need to swim through the sewer again to find the useful comments here. To Alex, TZ, Poly, Wes, Vuvvy, and many other intelligent traders/investors I am forgetting to name, your presence has been great. Good luck and well done on riding this bull! I won;t say I’ll never be back, but at least I have to wait until the nausea passes. It is sad that people like SB exist, but they do, by the millions. It is why the world is in such a mess right now. Everyone hating and blaming everyone else. And everyone feeling so justified in it. I am careful about who I hang around with, and this is just too gross. Best to everyone!

  12. T

    Congratulations Gary on the win!!!!

    Should we look at iron as another rising metal to invest in??? 🙂

  13. Wes


    I can certainly understand your sentiments.

    But, if the good guys all leave the field, the bad guys win by default.

    I think we owe Gary more than that. Let’s stick around at least until we at least hear from Gary on the matter.

  14. Jayhawk

    I’m going long chicken burritos as that seems to be the magic formula. 🙂


    AG is unreal, glad I have some from Jan but not sure I would chase here out of AGQ Eamonn.

  15. formerAG


    It would be a big loss to this board if you stopped commenting. Speaking for myself, your advice has been invaluable. I hope others chime in and talk you out of leaving. Can you just ignore non-gold related issues?

  16. Avann

    DG … you will be missed but I do not see that there is anything anyone can do … There were multiple times I wanted to post yesterday but I held back because I know this is like politics and religion … you absolutely cannot change a bigot … the change has to come from within.
    I only wish other’s would not give these people a voice by challenging them.
    Please do not respond to this as I am not referring to any particular bigot … there are plenty on this board … and I just ignore those comments.
    I look forward to hearing from you again when this all dies down … as I know it will.

  17. fat boy

    What a shame, i hope you keep your dialogue with Gary going off the blog you seam to have a good relationship.

    It,s just a shame if you get to the point where you feel that you can,t help fix the blog by being part of it.

  18. n1tro


    Don’t leave. I’m sure Gary values your analysis and insights as part of his reports.


    Lets stick to making a ton of money on metals regardless of the manipulators.

  19. Jennifer


    I don’t post here often, as I don’t really know much and mostly like to sit back and learn from people like you. I understand your leaving, SB’s remarks have been stomach churning at the least. The problem with leaving, is that it gives the SB’s power over you, over all of us, by letting him take something good away. The best thing for everyone to do is just ignore his racist bigoted remarks, and not debate him, not encourage him, just ignore them. It is hurtful to read, but its just a small part of the larger, better thing that goes on here. I hope you come back. I enjoy your posts very much. Thank you for your contributions.


  20. Brian

    DG, All the constant responses, including your latest, just keep it going. If there were no responders, it would drop immediately. I know you want Gary to somehow ban an anonymous poster, but is censorship a better road to travel. I think not. If you and everybody else would stop, it would be over.

  21. 86d4life

    You are one of the very valued people on this board. I know you understand that us losing you turns the whole thing into a double negative. And it doesn`t wind up turning into a positive. Please reconsider.

  22. Sandy101


    We should not give up. That would just hasten the detrioration of the blog. If Gary had been online during the last few days, I am sure he would have put a stop to this much quicker.

    Please stay on. Your contribution is much appreciated.

    Hope everbody will keep the focus of the blog on investing.

  23. jeff


    i realy dont want so see you go. good tradeing and good tips. i know i am learning from you and others.
    i am most certine if you through all of us into a room we would not click together. we do have a common goal and that would be pm’s
    a little banter is nice and we like shareing.
    i saw all the argueing and was sorry for it. i didnt jump in because i could jump on both sides for many reasons ( dont even try to read anything into that please)
    but i know for sure i cant figure out the politics of a 100 empoyee company. much less the world.. sigh ok im babbleing
    just dont stay away

  24. Kevin

    Hey, new sub here. I’ve got some dry powder and I’m ready to find it a new home. I’ve been reading your wise comments, but not too sure about my own calls yet. Can anyone share ideas about where to put it and when, if you had to use your funds? I know I’m a little late to the party but I don’t want to miss the action. Thanks!

  25. Le Fou

    Everyone who bought DG’s book should ask for a refund. He’s obviously too easily stressed out. His idea of stress relief is to flee to peaceful pastures.

  26. Haggerty

    This could really be great cause the dollar is not even down today(too much)

    I have not been able too catch up on the comments, but I hope neither of you leave the blog. If need be you should just ignore each other.

  27. DG

    I appreciate the thoughts. Frankly I am being a bit selfish. For me it’s not about the bad guys winning or losing in that he will stay a bigot regardless of whether I stay or go. They ruin lots of things. It’s more for me as I am careful to try to hang out with people who are positive and beneficial. Or at least, when necessary, at least not negative and willfully hateful and soul-destroying. Yet my whole life has been one of trying to serve others in various ways, so I am torn here. Let me at least take some time away and see if the bad taste can come out of my mouth.

    And SB, for God’s sake, just change your profile! Why not? Why attract such polarization? Don’t ruin the blog. It’s been great. Gary, can you help here?

  28. Kevin

    Thanks Eamonn. Got some AGQ at 224 last week. Got some IAU and SLV before that as I have become slowly more trusting of Gary’s ideas as I see you all doing well. I will check out AG. Thanks again.

  29. Haggerty

    Welcome Kevin

    Just put it in AGQ or SIL immediately. Don’t look at the daily wiggles, from this point in the Cwave you might make 35 to 50 % percent before we exit positions.

  30. ALEX


    I have your email and will keep in touch , but it’d be better if you’d stay and post with us. I am still away and will email you later, but I have to tell you a little story…

    I was ,for 10 yrs, just doing all my learning and trading by myself. I read NO blogs (still dont,I read a yahoo blog for 2 days and hated it…clouded my thinking)so I took a few courses in 2005 and did things from experience,many losses/many gains.

    Found Gary through a “Toby Conner” article on Kitco,signed up to learn HIS “cycles”in Aug/Sept 2010..then found this blog. LOVED THIS BLOG!
    I read without writing for 2 months,then saw the quality of investors and wanted to add to it. I have learned from everyone something…

    I admit that wading through the conversations I missed the past 3 days was difficult, but leaving you may take away something positive with you . Its your choice , but you’ll be m missed(and you’ll feel selfish when you make a killing on the D-Wave, because you promised you’d help me to improve at my biggest weakness, going short 😉

    DAVID (with the bug icon)..same for you.

  31. James

    DG, a lot of folks, including me, enormously value your contributions to the blog. Please don’t let one or two pathetic individuals be the last ones standing.

    Gary, me thinks it’s time to exercise some leadership on this issue. IMHO you’ve been pretty low-key about this kind of stain on your blog in the recent past.

    All that said, congrats Gary on an amazing achievement this weekend.

  32. Gary

    Apparently while I was away there was some big political discussion on the blog that offended many.

    First off I would really prefer to keep the blog about financial stuff (well other than a brief moment of glory on my recent lifting accomplishment).

    Blogger doesn’t allow me to ban IP addresses. I would have to delete comments as they were posted.

    I will do that if anyone is using profanity. But I just don’t have time to sit around and police the blog all the time. I don’t even have time to read through all the comments anymore.

    So I will just ask that we keep this blog respectable and stick to investing or economic topics from now on.

  33. Kevin

    Haggerty, thanks for the info. I may follow the AGQ advice from you and Eamonn as I think with the limited time I have now, I won’t benefit from the time it takes to check out AG’s financials on my own. Double thanks.

  34. DG

    Gary: Thanks for posting. SB: Agreed?

    Le Fou: You don’t know the difference between stress and conscious decision. Stress creates compulsive behavior. I would not leave because “I can’t stand it” which would be a stress response. Leaving because it is gross(having considered leaving for weeks—since the last racist tirade) is a choice. If I choose not to hang out with such people, is that evidence of stress? I make such choices every day. I can hang out with complete miscreants if I have to and handle it fine, but I generally choose not to.

    Alex: Fair enough. Let me let some time pass, once this current little back-and-forth is over.

  35. ALEX

    F.W.I.W. to anyone…

    AXU has a nice chart pattern with swelling volume coming in today as it approaches the break out point.

    Up 6% at this point today. ( I own)

  36. Steven


    There are so many forums on the Internet with like-minded people for you to express your views. This is not one of them.

    Why not:
    1. Change your name (Ben Bernanke would be a good start),

    2. Remove the Israel loction, and

    3. Stop the anti-Jewish remarks.

    Make as much fun as you want about Bernanke just not about his religion.

    Then we perhaps can find some common ground on the real reason we are here. Why corrupt the board.

    As for TommyD, well I cannot imagine he is rational enough to even comprehend what I’m discussing so we an just ignore his cult-like posts.

    But you and I (and many ther intreste parties) have much to contribute and why waste that talen and harm our returns when there are other places for you views.

    I think I can speak for many on this board that we can let the past go if you can do these simple things and we can all just move on.

    Trying to put and end to this in a peaceful way. The ball is really in your court.

    Hope you make the right decision.


  37. Ben

    Gary, when you have your own server, you will be able to ban by IP address.

    And congrats on your win this weekend!

  38. guy

    damn steven, cut the crap
    sb hasn’t posted anything since yesterday and Gary just asked to stick to investing.
    if you have any respect for Gary and the rest of us, let it be.

  39. ALEX

    Blogger aaronpalang said…

    Gold just made a sixtuplet top at 1440, 7th time is a charm 🙂

    April 4, 2011 8:13 AM

    I laughed..out loud 🙂

    Out for the day..cya good people of Garys blog!

  40. sophia

    Oh no DG, please don’t leave.
    I am learning so much with all you guys and you are great and patient to answer some of the silliest questions!
    It is a sham that because of few people with issues, the best are off…
    SB, I didn’t even finished reading your comments, they shouldn’t be on this blog anyway, and I hope that Gary agrees!!

  41. Ben


    In future, if necessary, you can run a blog off a dedicated server, too.

    More work, though.

    I suggest people do as I do. There is no ignore button here, but there *is* a scroll bar on your browser. There are a few people that I skip every time, and this weekend, I managed to read just twenty posts out of hundreds. Just a couple key words and I could see it was pointless to read further. So I didn’t.

  42. Avann

    Gary … here’s a suggestion … can you not appoint a few individuals that you trust as administrators of this blog … basically giving them the power to delete what may be considered questionable content.
    I think there must be a least a few people who can trust to do this.

  43. Gary

    Absolutely not. Freedom of speech is guaranteed in this country and on my blog.

    I will only delete comments with profanity. But I do ask that we keep the blog to financial and economic topics please.

    I think I’ve earned enough respect to request that and I would hope everyone would honor that request.

  44. Veronica

    DG, I hope also that you will reconsider leaving.I love to learn from you and many others also on this blog.You will be missed if you do leave.

  45. kmisak

    Thank goodness for the c-wave; otherwise blood may be shed on this blog!

    This week some may have missed a discussion thread regarding which would do better during the last part of a c-wave: miners or the price of silver. Now I believe the problem is in the definition of “last part of a c-wave.” I always thought it meant the final days. We may be a month away from the top, or more.

    Is there really any hard, consistent evidence for either?

  46. Le Fou


    I do know the difference between a conscious decision and a conscientious decision. The first is based on a self-referential internal awareness, and the second is based on principle. You seem to be all about you. You’re unable to let one bigot (as you judge him) go, and just deal with the real people here. You seem to have high control needs. If you can’t make SB change, then you’re taking your ball and leaving. Seems petulant to me. If your hang up with SB doesn’t cause you stress, then more power to you.

    Best of luck,
    Le Fou

  47. wingwalker

    GPL still has it’s hangover from secondary done a week or two back. I think it should resolve positvely this week.

    Own it, but have a 4.15 stop on.

  48. Silverman

    It’s very sad that the hatred of one person can poison something that has been such a good thing for so many. DG and David, I will miss your wisdom and your insights. I completely understand your decision to leave but I hope you will consider returning at some point.

  49. New York


    Stress is everywhere. Our bodies have a certain capacity to adapt and withstand it. Some people have a greater adaptability then others.

    Whether we avoid stress by choice or by some inborn reaction we are still avoiding it…

    Social defeat refers to losing a confrontation among conspecific animals, or any kind of hostile dispute among humans, in either a dyadic or in a group-individual context, generating very significant consequences in terms of control over resources, access to mates and social positions.

    By definition this public discussion has been a source of ‘stress’ for you and the rest of us for that matter. It’s not a choice….. Social issues can also cause stress, such as struggles with conspecific or difficult individuals and social defeat…

    So, i’m not sure where you’re going with your ball but why not stay and play with the rest of us?

  50. Rick 4779


    I know you will be back soon…as soon as it dawns on you that bigots are really the littlest of people, short of understanding and craving of attention. Best to you on riding this C wave with rest of us.

  51. Wes


    As for metals vs stocks, TZ has made the point several times that the metals are better during the end of the C wave.

    He’s usually not wrong about that sort of thing, and I’m taking his word for it.

  52. James

    Gary, you said “Freedom of speech is guaranteed in this country and on my blog.”

    Just as an fyi, on another widely followed trading blog I subscribe to, someone asked this morning for a recommendation on other good blogs to follow, because good ones “are so hard to find.” Despite all of your good work, and all the money I’ve made as a result of you, at this point I’d be too embarrassed to recommend your blog after the insidious, hateful stuff that was posted this weekend.

    I really think there are limits to “freedom of speech” (e.g., the old example of yelling fire in a crowded theatre), and you’re going to lose a lot of good contributors if you decline to exercise leadership here. jmho.

  53. Peter

    the battle between the ‘turds and the ‘tards rages on I see. You people have done nothing but empower each other with your continual rebuttals. Anyone with half a brain could figure that out. Havent any of you heard of Turn the Other Cheek … ?

    At least if you all were slightly interesting with your rhetoric, but frankly, to date, none have you has said anything remotely interesting, except perhaps to each other.

    I usually wouldnt comment, but you are all impacting what Gary does with your inane whining. I want Gary to focus on what we pay him to do, and in case you have forgotten, its to focus on his cycles and not to referee the battle of the dimwits.

    As to the rest of you, grow a pair, and like the wiggles you ignore on a daily basis, do the same here … it isnt that difficult, i am sure most of you ignore noise in your life on a daily basis …

  54. Brian

    Gold Silver Troll, GPL went from 2 to 5. Wouldn’t some consolidation seem normal. We have gotten real spoiled!

  55. ease

    Kevin, welcome new sub. Go to Gary’s post for change in portfolio investments. As you can see many are in AGQ. Good start there, just see if you can get in at a day low.

  56. TommyD


    You stated about me: “As for TommyD, well I cannot imagine he is rational enough to even comprehend what I’m discussing so we an just ignore his cult-like posts.”

    Jesus, Mary and Joseph! Catholicism and my Faith, you consider CULT-LIKE?

    You say all you want about me but I will defend my Lord and Savior and shout out his good teachings as all true Christians are instructed to do.

    God bless everyone here with health, prosperity and wisdom.

    Gold and silver are on a run fore-sure.

    I’ve been watching this board like a movie. Why are these guys complaining? Another 2 lbs I guess! You and your wife have a winning book and a major business going. Thanks for what you are doing. You are helping me and others here. Stick around as you know I will have questions for you soon. 🙂

  57. David


    Take a break, but please don’t leave. Your imput has been appreciated greatly!

    Yes, sometimes this past weekend comments on this blog have been horrific. Don’t get swept in. I think advantage was taken of Gary’s absence.

    I especially want you to know that I have enjoyed your book immensely.
    It refreshes so many concepts I have followed and tried to practice through the years. Plus there was new information and great exercises in breathing and meditation that I am trying to incorporate into my life.

    I have bought three copies now and have shared them with friends and family.

    Must run…Yoga class starts soon.



  58. ease

    David and DG, take some time off, but come back as we enjoy your input and will miss you and many of us do need your insight and experience. Please consider that others here highly value your input and a lot of us need it!

  59. Le Fou

    New words for Le Fou’s vocabulary

    conspecific (n) Of the same species. First use 1859

    dyadic (adj) Referring to dyads or two individuals maintaining a sociologically significant relationship.

    Thanks New York,
    Le Fou

  60. Hot Rod

    (on topic)

    Does anyone know what the criteria will be for “predicting” our end of C wave exit point?

    Will we have stops raised that get hit? Will there be technical indicators painting a picture?

    Also, will we typically exit intraday or have to do at the open?

  61. ease

    Hot Rod, good suggestions for Gary to layout on the premium site, which he probably does as time nears closer and he has a better idea as to how things are coming together.

  62. Razvan

    if SB wants to call himself skinhead or anything else that is his choice! It is his profile and he should be allowed to write whatever he wants there. If you dont want to read it dont open it.

  63. Clarkatroid

    James makes an excellent point. If this site is to develop then moderators are needed.

    Let’s be honest, we come here to make money. I get excited when someone like Steven shows up with relevent valuable insights, but this is countered by reading 100 posts about racism, which is a complete waste of my time

    At the moment the premium site top dog but this section losing it’s appeal rapidly

  64. Dan

    For my 2 cents as a subscriber I agree with Peters comments above and I agree with your original comment on the issue and the free speech response to Avann.

    Its not all that hard to ignore off topic stuff and I am intelligent enough to filter out what I want. Its childish to put you in the middle as a referee.

  65. Elaine

    Congratulations, Gary! We are all very proud of you. And, as always, thanks for helping us keep our cool during the swings in the market.


  66. Aaron

    This gold block at 1440 is utterly ridiculous. At some point the USD will have to start pulling back hard, and thats probably the only chance gold will have to over run the shorts. Shorting at 1440 has been profitable during the entire month of March.

  67. Poly


    Be patient, it takes that type of sentiment across the board to launch through major resistance levels, few people stay the course.

    But once through the resistance, its all clean, fresh unrestricted space up there.

  68. W

    Feel the need to add my voice to the chorus that hope you don’t leave. You discrbed that possible action as selfish, but I can see it is not. It is a professional consideration for the people you work with now and at the budding hf. Some bs entanglement here is just not acceptable in either of those worlds, especailly now that everyone knows who you are. I sincerely hope you do not leave, but if you must, best of wishes…

  69. 86d4life

    You guys remember a couple months ago a guy that was posting as Tim&Jeneanne? He came along with some insane economic theory that started as discussion(which we all benefit,learn and grow from) and it turned into it`s own living, breathing, growing monster. After a while, the flap would settle down and we could get back to PMs and there was harmony throughout the land. Than T&J shows, throws in his 2 cents, bails out, and it`s `Big trouble in little china` all over again! The junkyard dog was kicking his own a$$!! And the part to me that was so amazing is it wasn`t just regular people, but our best and brightest.Like watching a cancer feed on itself. Not to condone any side of this arguement, but this beast can`t stay alive if it doesn`t get fed.

  70. Brian

    Aaron, It is of course when those shorts get complacent that breakouts occur on huge volume as all those people cover up.

  71. Poly

    As for the racist and bigotry arguments, ignore them and get on with it people, after all this is a free and open forum frequented by hundreds of completely anonymous contributors.

  72. Vonda

    Anyone have any thoughts on how this move might play out intraday?

    I don’t usually try to play the wiggles but I guess I must have gotten a little bored wading through last week and if there’s a chance of closing strong, thought I’d risk some leverage, just for the day.

  73. Gary

    In case everyone hasn’t figured it out yet, we’ve gotten spoiled by the bull so that when it’s not jumping 2-3% a day the topics on the blog tend to turn to some other area to find some action.

    How about in these circumstances the traders post trading ideas so we can keep busy instead of arguing about worthless topics.

    Alright I’m off to climb some cliffs.

  74. W

    Bob Loves H

    You breifly mentioned a put stratigy on agq for the d-way. I am trinkering with that idea currently on zsl (in a very small way). I know it’s preverse and there are pitfalls, but would you care to comment.

  75. Aaron

    Thanks Poly, it really is just a waiting game.
    Brian, I’m eagerly waiting for it, cant wait to see gold take off like a rocket and exceed that 1% cap it runs into.
    Gary, you cant be serious. Gold RARELY moves up more than 1% in 1 day. Moves over 2% are even more rare, yet I expect just that, a 2% move when 1440 falls for good.

  76. Gary

    I haven’t bought, or traded, or even cared what gold does other than how it drives the rest of the precious metal market in over a year.

    Silver on the other hand has had many 3+% days.

  77. pimaCanyon

    Good plan, Gary.

    I’m off to knead some bread, then bake it, then ride my bicycle.

    As far as gold goes, the breakout seems to be on hold at least for a little while longer. But longer term nothing has changed. 1600+ looks likely to me.

  78. Bob loves Hawaii

    Silverman, I bought Minera, and intend to hold until the D wave, only AXU looks like it has more potential, but I own that one, as well.

    W, I like puts over calls on the double ETF’s because the decay and volatility will be incredible. Calls you fight the decay and vol crush, IMO.

  79. seethruskin

    Religion — creating division, distraction and death for over 3,000 years!

    Congratulations Gary.

    Looking for a squeeze here as silver shorts wrestle with the reality of breakout taking shape.

  80. ease

    I really like how well AGQ is going up, but it can go down just as hard. My 3 favorites are AGQ, SLW and GLD. I am sure others can give you a few ideas on miners. I am staying out of those for the C wave.

  81. TZ(4404)

    Reverse H&S pattern on gold. Looking good.

    I thought we would get the break and surge last week, but it appears it will be early this one.

  82. Nike Boy2008

    Please stay on the board..I’ve learnt a lot from you about trading both technical and mental stuff…you’re inputs mean a lot to almost everyone on the board..

    maybe we can all just ignore anything that is not trading related…i.e.stop feeding

    Same goes to you…we have a great community here and would hate to see you and DG leave the board

  83. TZ(4404)

    Retirement nest eggs cracking.
    Inflation starts to destroy everything.

  84. DG

    Wow! I have received a bunch of private emails and a loot of postings here. I assure you I was not grandstanding, but just questioning whether I wanted to deal with things here. Several people wrote to point out that leaving was selfish because there are not that many real traders here and I can contribute. Fair enough. The timing is good as I am traveling and teaching this week, so will take a natural break. I am truly sorry for anything I may have done to add to the nonsense here. You kind of want to stand up against these things, but you don’t want to feed them. I posted very little but it was hard watching others fall into the trap. Anyway…onwards.

    Am still short PHM. This may be a great one as it is already acting much worse than the market. I posted at 7.62 and have my mental break-even stop in place. If housing deteriorates (which I believe it will) they may go all the way. I will post trading ideas when there is not much to do in the PM’s…next week or so. Thanks to everyone who wrote. Neutral on SPX. We are still very stretched, but the printing has continued to override normal historical patterns. I agree with Gary that the SPX is just not worth dealing with. See you guys later. Have a great week!

  85. blammo

    I moved my funds from GPL to Revett last week.

    Rubicon and HL are two that I would stay away from (bad management). We will have to see if GPL makes the trifecta but I am on the sidelines.

    AG = All Good

  86. guy


    i’m out a here.
    you remind me of my nephew, he’s 8 though.
    in terms of learning something about investments SB is ten times the man you are.
    not being capable of standing up to comments and calling in the teacher’s help is so lame it disgusts me.

  87. Wav_ridah

    nice move. I’ve been long Revett since it was in the 0.30’s. There have been leaks that they’ll be grtting their AMEX listing this month!

  88. Slumdog

    guy:’SB is ten times the man you are.
    not being capable of standing up to comments and calling in the teacher’s help is so lame it disgusts me.”

    It’s one thing to watch Fight Club. It’s another to support people’s unsocial behavior. Or have you not just witnessed the barbaric behavior and language in Afghanistan due to a fool’s burning of a religious philosophy book?

    The focus is on Mammon, here. All the rest of the postings are off topic, right? Or do you want to fight about that, also?

  89. pimaCanyon


    Do you know the date of that 60 minutes clip you posted?

    Seems there was talk of “mortgage gate” months ago and now it’s all blown over. If 60 min aired this show recently, then it hasn’t. If it’s an old show, I wouldn’t give it much importance because once again the banksters have very likely figured out a way out of the mess they created. They’ve got all the money, they can hire very expensive lawyers, and they have their connections in high places. Seems very likely that this will end up being another case of the taxpayer footing the bill.

  90. Kevin

    OK, been doing some reading on AG. Anybody have a realistic target for a top? Looks like they have the most exposure to the metal itself than any other miner and some nicely growing financials.

    Seems as if there are two general camps here regarding this wave, those who are pretty speculative, into junior miners and such like ag with maybe their most conservative investment being agq or slv, and then on the other hand those who are a little more conservative, holding gld (i like being long iau since it has lower fees), slv, and maybe slw or agq as their most speculative investments. Is that an on target or off target assessment?

    Thanks as always.

  91. Dan

    I could use some advice from any of the knowledgeable traders we have here:
    I have some April 195 and 205 AGQ calls.
    Obviously up pretty well now. What should I do with them? Take the profit? roll them? wait a few days? Thoughts would be appreciated. TIA

  92. Poly


    Run with them. We’re in the timing band for more upside between now and expiration.

    Obviously these were a gamble when you bought them 🙂 Might as well milk them now, IMO.

  93. Romeo Bravo

    Dan, the delta on the options you cite are nearly .90 which means for every $ 1.00 AGQ goes up, your option goes up $0.90. Fairly close to $ 1.00 which unless there is a big drop in price, means you just track the stock with your option.

    However, we are now under two weeks to expiration, so any larger drop will put a big dent in your options.

    Probably best to roll them to May, maybe even June. Depending on your comfort level and how much cash you have to throw at these.
    Perhaps even take some profit out?

  94. Ben

    Freedom of speech doesn’t mean where ever and whenever one wants…

    At a set of forums I’ve used for over 15 years (Silicon Investor), it’s perfectly acceptable to enforce on-topic posting. If one doesn’t (and some continues to remain disruptive), then all lose. Many valuable threads collapsed which had been set up unmoderated.

    This has been unmoderated for a long time, and I think it will settle down. But it is clear there’s a powder keg sitting under a lot of people, something to be expected during a Depression/K-Winter cycle.

  95. Ben

    Back on topic. For all the malaise of PM shares and gold’s inability to break past 1440 (so far), my PF’s continue slowly to climb the wall of worry. I think this behavior portends some great action soon.

  96. Slumdog

    Poly: “
    Run with them. We’re in the timing band for more upside between now and expiration. “

    Poly, if we were 8 days out, would you offer the same advice?

    At what point in day counts on this cycle will you say that at that point it is best to take the profit?

    And then are you looking after that at the backside of the cycle, where you stand back and wait for the cycle bottom to re-enter?

  97. traderlady

    EAMonn, Everyone is different as far as strategy and they give you hundreds. It is worth the 9.95 to see if it is for you. Much to learn so be prepared if you try it.

  98. Ben

    Gary, when you have a dedicated server, will the site have the same name as now? If so, it will take from a few hours to a few days for the new IP address to propagate to the DNS servers on the Internet. It would be useful if you posted the IP address here so that people can find the site prior to their local ISP’s DNS server finding out about the change.

  99. Slumdog

    Doesn’t the run up today, and the overnight gap (in US traded markets, including the NY Pit), need to be filled?

    This is a breakaway gap. So far, every gap of this magnitude has been filled.

    Why is this time different?

    The normal gap fill is within 24 to 72 hours. There has been a time when the gap stayed open for about two weeks, and then, pow.

    In the cycle scenario, it might be that this gap will continue until the backside of this daily cycle.

    The bottom of the gap is the top of Friday’s trading.

  100. pimaCanyon


    Poly knows options, he says stick with them.

    Just know that they will go up and down in value pretty much as AGQ does. Also, you will want to either sell them or exercise them no later than April 14 (which is just one week from this Thursday) since OPEX is on the 15th this month.

    The only problem I can see with rolling them is the wide spreads on these options. But that’s obviously your only option (ahem…) if you want to continue at this level of investment and you don’t want to exercise them.

    (I would consider exercising only if the price that you can sell them for is less than the current price of AGQ minus your strike price.)

  101. Brian

    Dan, If you count the days in the cycle we are on day 13 of a cycle that has historically lasted 21 days but lately has been lasting 25 or more. If you check it out you will find that the cycles magically bottom around that expiration period.

    I try to not over stay my welcome with options. It usually costs me money.

  102. pimaCanyon


    Sorry for my lame post asking for the date. Was watching you tube directly, but when I go to your original link, I see the date was April 4, 2011. That’s recent. So there’s probably more to hit the fan on this and yes, it will affect us here and probably everyone in the US.

  103. I've Eaten Silver

    AGQ is outperforming SIL massively. I had big buys on 2/28, where I picked up SIL for 26.81, and AGQ for 186.84.

    Since then AGQ has increased 25% while the ugly SIL has done about 8-9%!. What a shlt box!

    Does anyone see this trend reversing towards the end of this C-wave?

  104. William

    Interesting how the dollar has quietly rallied back up to around $76. Looks like Silver thinks the wheels are about to fall off the dollar and gold can’t decide. Will be interesting to see how this week plays out. Gold needs to get over the $1440 hump already.

  105. I've Eaten Silver

    I looked back and also had some good buys when SIL was much cheaper, and my cost average recently is probably around 14% lower than where it trades today. That said AGQ is outperforming SIL by +10%!

    BUT when silver increases in price the miners profit margins should increase exponentially, yet this is not yet reflecting in the silver miners in general (for some specific miners it is).

    Is Bob Chapman right? See next post.

  106. I've Eaten Silver

    In the 60 trading days this year, the HUI has dropped at least 7 points off its opening price 25 times, or 42% of the time, including 15 times, or 25% of the time, when it has dropped by 10 or more points. This as silver has appreciated by 20%.

    On those 31 down days, the HUI’s average decline from its highs has been 14 points, or 3%. What is being done to share investors by government is criminal. The HUI has fallen by at least 1% from its opening 41 times, or 67% of the time.

  107. I've Eaten Silver

    Speculate as you may. But at the bare minimum this is at least entertaining. It is also a confidence builder for PM bulls:

    s we have noted for some time corrections in gold and silver have been short-lived lasting only for a few days or a week and then they rally strongly in spite of major paper suppression by the “President’s Working Group on Financial Markets.” The elitists have to be scratching their heads. They raise margin requirements repeatedly and they have little effect. Today’s players don’t buy 5 or 10 contracts; they buy in the hundreds and thousands. In this exercise in futility the main players increased their net short positions by almost 30 million ounces in just months. The gold and silver suppression cartels have some major problems. They cannot cover without driving prices higher, particularly in silver. Our guess is they’ll go to default between $50 and $60 silver and pay off in cash, as silver races higher. The longs will, of course, get screwed and the action could take out silver and gold trading on the Comex and LBMA in London, and wipe out the options, derivatives and GLD and SLV. We’ll see what happens, but it won’t be good for the elitists. For some time Comex members have been paying large bonuses in cash to keep longs from taking delivery and now we are seeing growing premiums on funds such as the Sprott Silver Fund reflecting a $45.00 or $50.00 silver price. We believe that the ETF, SLV, has less than 30% of its inventory in physical silver and that is why it trades at a negative premium. They hold options, futures and derivatives and if Morgan goes into default, which we believe they must, SLV and for that matter GLD, may both be out of business and their shareholders left high and dry and broke. A word to the wise should be sufficient. SLV and GLD are frauds. On the Comex sellers are paying 30% to 80% premiums for long contract holders not to take delivery. This is certainly not normal. JPM and HSBC may not pay off long silver contracts in cash. They may just default and you may just become an unsecured creditor. These two banks do not have the silver. It is rumored that JPM is naked short 3.3 billion ounces of silver or 4 times annual silver output. At today’s silver prices JPM could be offside more than $60 billion. Those are the figures we’ve been using for some time. $60 silver means no more JPM. That is why we believe they will default.

  108. I've Eaten Silver

    More to the entertainment (better than twiddling your thumbs :). This post should actually be read prior to the other large one.

    “We have generally given you one side of a difficult equation. The other side is who will be the winners and the answer is commodities, gold and silver. In light of the very large short positions held by HSBC and JPM, and the fact little effort is being made to cover, many investors have been buying silver and taking delivering. That has led to higher silver prices, which puts these banks into a loss position in the billions of dollars. We are told as a result of being in this position HSBC, advised a major silver producer to sell their inventory so the sale would suppress prices and allow HSBC to do some short covering. The company was the large Mexican producer Penoles and the driving force in the sale was investor Carlos Slim, who is a front man for the elitists.

    Talk abounds that India, Mexico and China all may head toward the re-monetization of silver. It could be all three countries may retire some of their bank notes and substitute silver coins for future use. This would line up with recent agreements between China, Russia and India trading in their own currencies rather than dollars.

    On another note, this activity in silver can only make one imagine that gold backing may come to these currencies in the near future. We can assure you that they will not accept any new world reserve currency that is not 25% gold backed.”

    Bob Chapman International Forecaster

  109. Ben

    Silver eater, outlaw naked shorting, and a lot of the behaviors we see in stocks and indicies would end. Naked shorting to me is a perversion of a free market, designed to be an abusive tool used by the well connected to shake down the non-chosen few.

    It used to be that it would eventually fail against fundamentals, but with the advent of extorting taxpayers into making them whole again, it will not end so long as the gov’t exists in today’s form.

  110. I've Eaten Silver

    Ben I completely agree. The whole system is a f’in joke.

    Gamble as you wish, you don’t have to pay proper taxes on profits, and the public will share your losses with you. Win-win 100% of the time for the well connected elitists.

  111. Poly

    Slumdog, I’m assuming Dan is fully aware of the risks. He is obviously “playing with fire” being in AGQ options, so close to expiration. They obviously were not purchased “in the money” 🙂

    But that said, based on the cycle count and our lingering below the all time high levels, there is a good chance we burst into new highs any day and go for a good 5-7 day run. This would be very profitable for Dan. On the flip side, any new weakness here and I would be out in a flash.

  112. pimaCanyon


    are the in the money? If so, then read the advice Dan got re his ITM AGQ calls. If they’re in the money, you can just ride them for a while. You have till a week from Thursday to sell or exercise. A week from Friday is expiration.

    If they are out of the money, then the premium is going to decay rapidly since there you have less than 10 days now till exp. So their value will drop by 10 percent a day if the market goes sideways. If they are very close to going in the money you could chance it and hold them. far out of the money, I don’t know, it’s a crap shoot either way.

    I had some ITM GLD calls that I dumped last week.

  113. Romeo Bravo

    Haggarty, just know you could wind up with ZERO on these. Know what you are playing with. At this point, make sure it’s “high risk”/lottery play type money.

  114. Ollie

    Alex, what do you think of the volumes today?

    Doesn’t seem to be much conviction in my view in GLD, SLV, SLW, SIL

    Of course other are quite strong however I would have liked to see much stronger volumes on the breakout in the PM ETFs


  115. ease

    Traderlady, what do you show for ranking for GLD and SLW? I am looking to do a little adjusting out of these into something else.
    Thanks in advance

  116. EricH

    The big news this week is Thursday when the ECB meets. I assume everyone is going to simply let the stop do the talking and forget all the news?

  117. Ollie

    Most likely I’m completely wrong, but the reason I’ve asked the volume question is because I read the Jesse Livermore book a couple years back and there’s a sentence which stuck in my head and it is something along the lines of:

    “Jack up the price and the suckers will come”

    On the low volume side there’s no conviction and AG and other that are going ballistic I think the big boys are selling into strength and dumping their shares over to the latecoming retail crowd

    No volume on SPY either so I have a hunch the rally is running out of steam

    I am out but I would have sold into today’s rallies

    This is just my view, it is just a gut feeling can’t really back it up with more analysis just the low volumes…just wanted to put it out there

    Re AG I think

  118. Ollie


    Re AG I think big boys are selling into strength and jacking up the price to attract retail bagholders

    (this has been left off my prev post for some reason)

  119. coolkevs

    Congrats to Gary on his results!
    I mentioned the other day about SPX qualifying the TD Up Propulsion level – I forgot that Kevin Depew looks at the futures, so NO qualification of the 1332 level as of yet to 1415. German DAX now has a daily UP target of 7299. Silver has an outstanding D(Demark) wave 5 up target of 39.83 for completion on the Daily, so getting closer to take some chips off the table.

  120. Poly

    AG has a 55% 3 month move, obviously there is a story behind it and we don’t know it.

    Keeping riding the wave if you’re on it, trying to get on if you’re not can get you hurt.

  121. blammo

    Agree – I am not recommending new buyers to AG at this point (today), just saying volume looks good if you are already in.

  122. catbird

    Gap Fill Question:

    Does anybody think silver is going to “fill” its gap up this morning with a move down to test $38?

  123. ALEX

    OLLIE and PIMA

    I see GDX as light volume, but maybe closes down for the day on light selling. It looks (on a 2 day chart) it had a heavy volume slam at the $59.50 area, and this wants to get re-tested , in my opinion. So more sideways action , since GLD has no big boys backing it either (crap low volume so far).So maybe Golds big break out is not yet…

    As for some miners, I think they actually are sniffing out a coming move and I think volume looks good as they approach a breakout.
    I mean AXU, EXK, looks good , and SVM is not bad , and AG has already broken out and continuing on. Volume on AG is good, because the “breakout ‘point was the 23rd and 24th, where it had GREAT volume.

    My target for Ag is ROUGHLY $25 1/2ish minimum, but if Gold hasnt broken out by then, it very well could come back and close todays gap ( BUY IF IT DOES!)By then the 20sma may be there.

  124. wmp

    Someone mentioned management concerns at HL earlier..question to anyone with a good grip on C waves…it remains well off it’s highs after falling on unfavorable news in Feb (i think it was Feb, right now trailing by about 15%. Will a breakout and subsequent blow off obviate this bad news/management shadow? Will all things silver take off regardless at that point? Thanks!

  125. traderlady

    at ease, GLD and SLW are not in the top 100. Both are rated BUY with SLW at the top of the list for retirement growth stocks. GLD ranking can be off because it is an etf. Not sure if this helped.

  126. Poly

    Silver has made a nice breakout after 8 days of consolidation, not much discussion on it here today. Looks like it’s ready to get back into its intermediate uptrend.

    Very weak volume on SLV today though, not sure what the futures volume is like. Gold not confirming any of the move, but not entirely unusual given Silver is now the poster boy.

    Still think gold needs to make a move THIS WEEK, IMO, next week is too late to make a run in the timing band. I really do think we need to solidly eclipse the Mar 24th $1,447 high so we can print a pretty Right Translated daily cycle.

  127. Francisco

    Is anyone having an issue on the premium website, where it shows you as logged in and lets you access the April 1 report but restricts access to everything else? If you were able to correct this issue, could you please let me know how you did it?


  128. TZ(4404)


    From my point of view, it would be beneficial if you simply posted either:

    1) Depew says buy gold/silver NOW.
    2) Depew says sell gold/silver NOW.

    Either of those statements always seems missing from anything he says and, concidently, those are the ONLY two statements that mean *anything* in this game.

    With specific buys and sells we can then determine the usefullness of his advice for better or worse.

  129. ALEX

    for the volume on AG

    In Feb , avg volume was 1/2 million daily.
    then in March it had avg volume of 1 million.
    today it has 2.1 million, so it is gaining buyers. I would buy this on a pullback after this run exhausts. (unless we hit that parabolic stage , then no pullback will look good enough before it takes off again).

  130. ease

    Traderlady, yes it helps, Just wondering what is holding up GLD?
    SLW is moving slowly. Just trying to decide if I will move more out of GLD and into more AGQ.

  131. blammo

    Re: HL.

    If we are in a C Wave, all ships should rise with the tide. Still, I’d rather be in a Donzi than a rusty aluminum outboard.

  132. Poly

    @ at Ease,

    If you’re holding GLD for gold exposure, consider a 2x leverage gold fund. If you’re going to compare or consider AGQ, you need to at least compare an equivalent.

  133. Wes


    Besides, it’s hard for this to blow over, since the banks are unable to establish the ownership line necessary for selling the foreclosed inventory.

    People are suing the banks over this, and I think the original lady (the one who trained FBI agents) is starting a class action suit.

    The government head of the agency in charge (at the end of the clip) is proposing bribing all those whose homes were fraudulently foreclosed to get them to sign the quit claims. Guess who will probably fund that.

  134. ALEX


    Oh, I would honestly just hold on. I meant this little leg up, but the pullback isnt a sell unless you are a trader.

    I was just saying that it may do an A-B-C up , the D point nears $26 area , then it MAY retrace to todays gap. BUT I wouldnt sell, because it can do that in 2 days , and then intraday fill and fly.

    I sold some on Thursday’s gap up , saw the Gap get refilled and jumped back in friday. You dont want to risk losing good position on AG , the next leg up could be WAY BETTER 🙂

    Gotta run!

    Todays buy ,I.M.H.O. was AXU and maybe a riskier CGR

    Out for the night!

  135. LowTax

    Wes, TZ, thanks for the recent links. FWIW, I think housing is coming up on its next leg down and it’s likely there will be another one after that. We haven’t had complete capitulation yet by either side and we’re likely going to get an over-reaction phase. Might buy a house or two at that time … 🙂

  136. Wes


    I own some April AGQ 200 calls. These are part of some silver trading equities I acquired a couple weeks back.

    We just broke to the upside today, so I’m holding all of it for now.

  137. Wes


    If you’re talking about silver, where is the gap fill for the 2/8 breakaway ? Looks to me like if you missed that one, you could still be chasing.

  138. Bob loves Hawaii

    I did a little tree trimming today; closed my AG May 17.50 calls(own boatload of shares), sold AVL shares, and trimmed a third of my AGQ April calls.

    I bought GG, and AXU calls for May. Tomorrow I will buy more GORO shares.

    I had an utterly fantastic day today, as I am sure most here had as well.

    Mazel Tov 🙂

  139. Poly

    For the D-Wave, we could just buy ZSL, double SHORT Silver.

    How much lower could it go? It’s gone from $1,199 to $22, ROFL.

  140. Moneyman

    Dont think JPM will default..Never..! They are supported by FED.

    They will not default because of high silver price..Nah!

    I wonder one thing..Why cant they cover without driving prices higher? Dont understand that one?


    Is it just me who is nervous because of this?

    Gary? some advice please..:-)

  141. Moneyman

    “The longs will, of course, get screwed and the action could take out silver and gold trading on the Comex and LBMA in London, and wipe out the options, derivatives”


  142. Steven


    The post was not directed towards you and it was a peaceful recommendation. I actually had not read Gary’s post but that makes no difference. Many others said similar things. Respect for Gary is beyond what i can express here. Respect for you after your uncalled for posts towards me…none. No need to respond we can just ignore each other on the blog. I already said I was done in my last post by putting the ball elsewhere and frankly I don’t need a response to that post either after Gary’s comments. No need to reply I will not respond,

  143. W


    ZSL could go much lower after a little like action like is common for these dirivitves. Check out the 1 for 4 reverse split of VXX recently…then the fall just continues…until it doesn’t.

  144. Bob loves Hawaii

    I’d like some validation or correction on a cycle count. I am looking at AGQ, and my view is we were left translated into a daily cycle low on the 28th. If I am wrong, we are on day 12-14 of this daily cycle, and approaching a half cycle high.

    How is everyone counting these?

  145. W

    Well sort of….But then it would have been better if I’d have pointed to the reverse split history of ZSL…

  146. Robert

    Want to see how the Fed manipulates the markets –from Dan Norcini-
    This time it’s Lockhart
    Last week I posted my views on the “Dueling Fed Governors” which can be found here.

    In that post I explained my rationale for what the apparent conflict between the various Federal Reserve Governors is designed to do, namely, keep the speculative community off balance and unable to lean too hard on either the Dollar or the long bond.

    You will recall that we were first treated to the “hawks” sounding the warning that QE was going to be coming to an end June 30 with one going as far as saying that the last $100 billion out of the proposed $600 billion in Treasury purchases would not be needed.

    That talk was enough to RESCUE the DOLLAR from crashing through the 75 level on the chart. In my view that was exactly what it was supposed to do.

    Then they had to deal with the fallout to the long bond market which careened lower on the talk. So what do they do? Why send out a dovish member of the FOMC naturally. He sounds the warning that the US economic recovery is too fragile to rule out any end to QE at this stage thus forcing the long bond market to rise and rescuing it.

    To add further impetus to his thoughts another dove comes out today and sounds the same message as New York Fed Governor Dudley last week.

    Today we are treated to Atlanta Fed Governor Lockhart.

    Here is the full story:

    His comments were enough to push the long bond higher.


    As much as I despise Central Bankers, they are not stupid. They know full well (or they learn very quickly) that the speculator is the segment of the market that they need to tame if they are going to have any sort of control over the markets. Witness the greenlight they gave to this community by announcing both QE and QE2. It was designed to encourage buying across both stock and commodity prices to stave off deflation and encourage inflation.

    Now that the specs have done their masters’ bidding, these same masters must keep their leash restrained lest they run wild and confound their purposes. Keep these things in mind when you see this apparent confusion being sown by the various Fed governors.

    Personally I find it extremely repulsive that we have reached the point in our nation’s economic history when the markets sit around and listen to the sayings of mere mortals as if they are some sort of demi-gods in order to decide when and where to commit investment capital. There is something horribly wrong with this. One can only wish that our citizens will at some point rise up and demand an end to this entity called the Federal Reserve.
    Posted by Trader Dan at 1:06 PM Email This

  147. W

    Can’t wait for the additional confusion factor with the effect of a reverse split on my ZSL puts. Glad those are just toys while I’m trying to learn about Bob’s play.

  148. Poly


    Gold is the only count Gary tracks and had a low on March 15th, so it’s day 14 I guess. The high of the cycle is Day 7 @ $1,447, making it very left translated.

    It sure as hell does not feel like a 7 day LT cycle, Silver confirmed a new cycle high so hopefully gold is just following.

    Hopefully Gary could elaborate tonight.

    (Robert, why not just place a link to these articles, we’ve ALL SEEN THEM a million times)

  149. wingwalker

    I have us on day 14 of daily cycle. & using Gold’s cycle counts they historically have been 20-30days long. So i’m looking for a push higher in nxt 4/5 days before it drops into the nxt daily cycle low. IMO.

  150. Jayhawk

    I had told a friend about Gary and his lifting/trading services so he googled him and found this-

    Q: Who are your regular climbing partners, and what is it that you like or dislike about climbing with them? (Go on, spill the dirt!)

    A: I climb a lot with an American, Gary Savage. He’s an ex-Chippendale and Olympic weight lifter. A man of few words and major obsessions.


  151. ALEX

    Hey Jayhawk

    Heads up for the future…

    If GOLD ever gets going here and the gold stocks get going…check out the NG chart , 6 month daily is fine to see innocent consolidation , etc

    but look at it on a
    2 yr /weekly or even
    3 yr /monthly.

    July to Dec it went $6 to $17 roughly , retracement looks like a light volume flag (filled gap at $12 area perfectly…

    I may sell something, IF GOLD GETS GOING, and Am going to jump into this one if it gets going, I see a double possible.

    what do you think?

  152. Poly


    How long for a valid O’Neil consolidation? Is it 6 weeks or 6 months? Some of these are only working towards their NovDec highs now. Forgot all about NG, that was a nice ride back in the fall.

  153. GottaHaveIt

    If the Comex and silver futures market does go down due to lack of actual physical silver to conver the contracts … doesn’t that also wipe out AGQ?

    AGQ is based on silver futures, with no physical backing it up, correct?

  154. pvm999

    I haven’t had a chance to catch up on the blog, but did anyone mention that the dollar formed a swing high today?

    I bet that was why silver Had a nice day. With a little follow through on the swing high by the dollar is what we are waiting for next.

  155. Alex in Montana


    If you want to learn more about silver. All the major silver miners attend and have booths. I went last year and very informative. I’m going back.

    October 10 and 11, 2011
    Davenport Hotel
    Spokane, WA

  156. Aaron

    If the Usd is going to be a leading indicator…we should have at minimum 8 days of higher prices in PMs to look forward to.

  157. pimaCanyon

    Hawaii Bob,

    I have us on day 15 of the current cycle. The last cycle topped on day 25! Bottomed on day 31. So it was stretched a bit and very RT. We EXPECT (but no guarantees) that this one will be RT as well, but I have no idea whether to expect it to be stretched or shortened or average. If it followed last cycle to the letter (which is won’t) we would have another 10 trading days before a top is put in.

  158. pimaCanyon


    NG also retraced its July-December advance by a nearly perfect 50 percent when it bottomed on 3/15.

    Thanks for the heads up, I will keep this one on my radar.

  159. Wes


    Are you planning to take anything off the table with a guess at the top of the current cycle ?

    Guess I’m asking if you have anything you consider trading shares ?

    Given the chance, I’m going to sell my remaining April SLV DIM calls and, of course, my April 200 AGQ calls. I have a bunch of SLV’s, not many AGQ April calls. Both were bought with trading in mind, and I had the SLV’s on a short leash since they over leveraged me some.

    Hopefully, I’ve gotten away with it.

  160. Mission

    Anyone else think we might be seeing an inverted H&S on the $gold chart with a possible measured move of another 40+ points higher?

  161. Poly


    I think you will be given a nice setup this week to dump those trading shares. Just watch that ECB announcement, that event scares me a little and could rock the April’s.

    I will scale back some at a “top pick”, especially the shares purchased last week.

    Other than those, I’m essentially loaded with July SLV $30 & $32’s (Up from $20 & $25’s) and will probably close around 15% of those because I’ve added a fair amount of leverage at the last cycle (prep for c-wave) and will dump harder if we get a nice strong spike around the timing band.

    This should provide some nice powder to possibly get a little more aggressive at the next cycle bottom, definitely if it appears a C-Wave top is within reach.

  162. Poly

    Of course the ECB could come out with a hike with posture to further hikes and kick start the 3yr dollar decline 🙂

    The beauty of the markets!

  163. Wes


    That might be hard to game, as no hike may cause Europeans to buy PM’s.

    And I don’t see that causing PM selling here. Maybe dollar buying, but why PM selling ?

  164. Ben


    At the final C-wave top, yes, sell all, buy in at the A-wave start a couple months or so later.

    Some of us will undoubtedly try to short something at the C-wave top, although that’s dicey if you get head faked into shorting another big run up in gold/pm shares.

  165. jeff

    technicals from G-force trading. one of my brokers

    Gold (GC): Gold is currently projecting up to the $1,446.50 level where resistance will come back into play and a near-term selling opportunity may present itself this week. However, should the market continue to chop sideways, a break below $1,420.00 is also bearish for this market, projecting it down to $1,390.00.

    Silver (SI): A close below $38.180 on Tuesday, is near-term bearish for this market, projecting it down to $36.745 initially. Should the market close above $38.180 on Tuesday, this is near-term bullish for the market, projecting it up to $40.000.

    just thought i would throw it out there

  166. jeff

    whenever i read reports like this it just says to me, if it goes higher it will be higher. if it goes lower it will be lower

  167. traderlady

    Catbird, Vestor vest has many tools including a market timing tool so you stay on the right side of the market. With them I like to purchase on pullbacks their high VST (value, safety, timing) stocks. Like today the top are in order: RES,FTO,LUFK,HOC,MRO,PTEN,AG,AGP,HP,TGE. I particularly like the retirement strategy called high growth stocks. The top ones are currently:SLW, MRO,CAT,BIDU, HAL,DE BHI,COP, PCLN,CEO, BTU( build on
    them with pullbacks). I have followed Gary for awhile and I was ready for his fireworks so I subscribed. LOL

  168. traderlady

    At ease, The stocks you mentioned are Buys but down the list a ways.

  169. I've Eaten Silver


    SIL is trading like a dog. It is only about 5% above its January top, while SIL is now about 25% above its January top, AGQ 50%!

    Any thoughts on changing your position sizing on SIL?

    This under-performance is exactly what trader Dan describes where the play since the inception of GLD in 2004 is for hedge funds to short the weaker miners (in which SIL has some as its components):

    HUI Gold Ratio Spread

  170. catbird


    Thanks so much for the info.

    Wow, it seems the folks at V.V. love their oil/oilfield service stocks.

    And if the recent charts for those stocks is any indicator, they like momentum plays.

    I personally would be wary about holding oil-related stocks for more than a month or two given the fact that Gary thinks the fundamentals for oil are bad. He’s also said that the leader of the last bull (in this case oil-related stocks) is never the leader of the next one.

    Still, hard to argue with the recent performance of their picks. If they’ve been recommending them for the last few months, bravo VectorVest.

  171. I've Eaten Silver

    SIL’s second biggest holding Industrias Penoles CP which is 11.01% of SIL isn’t even above its January high yet.

    Fresnillo which is the third largest holding of SIL and is 10.67% of SIL’s holdings is still 10% below its January highs!

    So just with these two dogs if you’re 35% SIL than these two dogs make up 7% of your portfolio! They don’t have as much downside but c’mon this is a C-wave.

    Anyways, to each their own, just seeing if anyone else is seeing what I’m seeing which caught my eye thanks to the trader Dan report. You can only hold the very best miners, nothing else for miners, and you have to dump them at intermediate tops! All other miners will drastically underperform the metal itself, at least for now.

  172. traderlady

    Catbird, With Gary I expect to stay on task and not sell too soon. I have been too quick to trade wiggles and lose out on larger profits by staying in. With VV I do not get that discipline. We all have to work on
    the psy. 🙂

  173. Bob loves Hawaii

    I’ve eaten Silver, don’t wait for Gary on SIL. I looked at those components months ago and determined that I can create a higher performing basket of junior miners. This board has laid out a number of them, many trading on the main exchanges. I hvve the same problem with GDXJ.

    The hedgies have not been successful shorting the juniors yet.

  174. William

    From Bloomberg at 8:40:

    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he expects an increase in commodity prices to create a “transitory” boost in U.S. inflation and that the central bank would act if he’s proven incorrect.

    “So long as inflation expectations remain stable and well anchored” and commodity-price increases slow, as he’s forecasting, then “the increase in inflation will be transitory,” Bernanke said today in response to audience questions after a speech in Stone Mountain, Georgia.

    “We have to monitor inflation and inflation expectations extremely closely because if my assumptions prove not to be correct, then we would certainly have to respond to that and ensure that we maintain price stability,” he said.

    Can someone please tell this moron that he has been proven incorrect for the past year? Wait never mind we make more money on his ignorance.

  175. ease

    Traderlady, thanks, I will take a look at those. Just have a feeling that I got out of SIL and built up AGQ, I need to do the same with GLD and find a replacement for most of those funds.

  176. Brian

    Eating Silver, Industrias Penoles today settled a strike that had been going on at their mine for a good while. Regardless of that their chart looks similar to most of the silver miners except AG. A double last year and now completing a consolidation period.

    It is not uncommon to see people sell at the most inopportune time. The thing is, when these miners take off it is not uncommon to see very rapid moves.

  177. Le Fou

    Hey Gary,

    I think you ought to offer a seminar on investing with cycles. Charge a reasonable sum, and invite us all down to Vegas where we could see you in action and eat burritos.

    OR you could come up to the Black Hills climb some rocks, eat some burritos as the fabulous Barbacoas and hold the seminar up here.

    Either of those sounds great to me.

    Whadya say?

    Le Fou

  178. Gary

    I actually have done a few routes in the Black Hills when I was younger. I’m thinking about a week trip to devils tower around the end of the month.

  179. Steven

    For those who follow embedded stochastics, Silver is now fully embedded. This generally means that breaks in the market are to be bought and are bear traps. Basically, believe it or not, according to this statistic and even after the run we just had silver is increasing in strength! Lots of other indicators to look for and this one cannot be taken in a vacuum but it is highly bullish especially coming on the back-end of a move higher.

    Unfortunately gold is not embedded (yet) but I’m watching carefully to see if it does embed. I think that could be the indicator that gold is ready to break-out and possibly take silver even higher than it is now.

  180. Done

    Is this correct? If the dollar topped on Friday (Day 9) and usually runs 20-25 days then we have a left translated cycle with 10-25 days of down action for good ol’ US buck.

    Eitherway I’m looking to unload a little when silver hits $40.

  181. Steven


    When both lines in the slow stochastic go over 80 for 2-3 days. Not an exact science but you can definitely spot it when it is happening and imho it is happening now.

  182. DailyMovingAvg50/200

    Steven, is embedded the same as flatlined? I use ADX to try to determine trending vs. range bound. ADX currently says trend is rebounding and getting a little stronger. Just a TA indicator warning sign.

  183. Steven

    I’m not sure if they are the same thing but they sound similar. Basically embedded means a given security goes from overbought to locking in the trend in whichever direction is was already going. So in this case silver was simply overbought (in an uptrend) last week. Now it has locked in the uptrend and it is getting stronger. It is a very misleading indicator because most of the world thinks silver is crazy overbought but really it has crossed the line from overbought to getting stronger in its uptrend.

  184. I've Eaten Silver

    SLV (the metal silver itself) has outperformed SIL since this surge began in summer 2010. From rough eying it off charts it looks to have outperformed by about 5+%.

    Historically the miners are supposed to provide leverage to the increase in their metal mined- now this is not the case for 80% of the miners who are running short of their corresponding metal’s performance.

    I think it is wise to be nimble to this fact, and reposition out of SIL accordingly.

  185. james r

    The DOW Transport has made a new high.

    The DOW Industrial confirmed the new high today (barely).

    This should confirm a new up leg trend with the SP500 and NAZ to follow.


  186. james r

    It seems the PM will be sharing the spotlight with the overall market for the final drive.

    Once we hit the D-wave then the ABC correction we should see sector rotation into PM and miners. Though I was hoping it would have been in this final C wave.


  187. Brian

    james, Copper and Semi-conductors are two of the best leading economic indicators. Right now we have some question marks appearing. Is this just related to Japan or is it more ominous as oil prices continue to climb? High oil prices have always led to a recession, but usually have a 12 month lag.

  188. Brian

    james, And the $BKX is about to test it’s recent breakdown. If we have lost the financial’s too the signs are mounting.

    Along with DG’s notice for the housing sector. Check the Industrials such as F, GM, GE.

    Gary recently pointed out the sectors are falling one by one. This stuff is insidious as money rotates. Telecom and Healthcare are leading right now. Another bad sign out of an intermediate low.

  189. james r


    I think both answers may be correct as to why copper and the semis are showing weakness.

    But according to the DOW Theory, I think it is the Transport sector that is the leading indicator.

    Someone can correct me on that.


  190. ALEX

    POLY and PIMA

    I definitely have NG on my watch list, if it breaks higher out of this consolidation with good volume..i will jump in expecting a double.

    As for the consolidation…I took a course with an excellent Trader, and he said ( not O’Neil) that

    “The longer the consolidation, the more fuel for a run, but…you wont know in which direction until it gets going!” I’ve almost bought here, but I keep telling myself that at this point, I have no reason to. And TIME has proven that if I jumped in a week or 2 ago…its wasted money.

    And I foret who asked (sorry) but I did add to AXU…it started off with great volume & is heading for a breakout. I see it as a buy, Now. I did not buy CGR, though.

    Traveling home tomorrow…all day. I sure hope its an up day!! 🙂

    Later guys!

  191. james r


    If the overall markets do turn up, then I would expect these weak sectors you mentioned will retrace some of its highs.

    Maybe Gary can shed some light on this in the daily report.


  192. ALEX

    Oh PIMA

    And you mentioned the 50% retracement on NG, I always look for those fib #’s too. ( well,I always check the .382, .500,and the .618, but yes, I saw 50% on NG and I like that.

    And I rechecked, it was you asking about AXU. It is approaching a top on increasing volume, a break out would be a great run up, so I added to my position today (near $9.20)

    Cya all wednesday!

  193. ALEX

    OH yes, and Traderlady

    Thank you for that list of top stocks…I love to get a list like that and check it out chart-wise.


    And I also love the “Presidentials”, Kancamagus and Cathedral Ledge ( I know you must know what I mean 😉

  194. catbird


    I haven’t found the overnight action to be much of a tell.

    Let’s see what happens when NY opens and the Big Boyz are at their desks.

  195. catbird


    Got it, thanks.

    Speaking of embedded stochastics, check out BIDU. That thing has been solidly embedded on a 15,5 stochastic since last Monday the 28th!

  196. Brian

    james, I think Gary has mentioned the usual path is for these sectors to peel off one by one until one day people wake up and say whoa! Then everybody realizes the bear is back.

    Hence the Get Out blog post recently.

  197. Slumdog

    IMO, Gold’s been riding now for more than a day along the high range of the Bollinger Band, 60 min, and after both creating a wedge or triangle, continuation patterns, on shorter time patterns, they in tandem extended the reversal, but still not to the bottom of the BB.

    I’d expect sideways chop until the MACD’s extend again deep into minus territory.

    I’m gutless, standing aside, waiting for a surer thing.

  198. Slumdog

    Further, strategically, it was MSM news that SI made a 31 yr high yesterday. Opening in the evening session led to the Jesse Livermore observation, “raise price and the suckers come running”. They got devastated… so it was sell about 10 min into the opening. I did. And same again, the few left here in the US will move in, and then what?

    The target was the prior closing high, 38. It’s been met.

    Now what?

  199. Shalom Bernanke

    No worries here. I’m not predicting metals close higher today, but I would not be surprised if they did.

    Either I get paid next week or next month, it’s all the same to me.

  200. Edwin

    all you need to know is that the economy is back stopped by Ben and friends.

    doesn’t mean it won’t go down though.. but it won’t go down to zero.

    Ben is using a very reactive policy and when it hits critical levels they pump dollars into the system.

    this is why the gold trade will sustain itself — people will still buy this shiny yellow thing to preserve wealth.

    because where we are at, growth has peaked, cpi is about to hit it’s peak, and credit has to expand. ben wants to avoid any deflation if possible..

    so he’s printing the US dollar into the toilet.. to stimulate some trade.

    i really don’t know what their long term plans are going to be..
    currently no one is really buying the USD.

    they should lay their plans to create some global stability. but they would rather keep it secret to profit from it. good ol’ capitalism..

    ben doesn’t sound optimistic by some of his recent comments on inflation

    i’ve mentioned in previous comments.. there are other markets out there besides gold. the gold market is very popular despite what you hear about the 5% holdings in portfolios and the HUI is at levels of 2003 according to Sprott. C’mon that guy is raking a 17% premium on his trust fund..

    Because people are freaked out they looking for stability so right now.. look at healthcare and utilities VOX

    if you don’t want to bother with other markets, ride the golden bull but I would say don’t go overboard..

  201. Edwin

    there is a big looming factor of the eur/usd trade.

    its about to go down.. the velocity is almost over..

    i hope this thing can sustain itself but this is weighing down on a gold breakout btw.

  202. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m prepared for the possibility of a few weak days headed into the ECB on the Apr. 7th. Between now and then, it’s 50/50 odds in my book.

    Looking farther out, miners appear ready to pop on the upside, IMO.

  203. Shalom Bernanke

    My ideal scenario would be to see metals and miners drift sideways to lower for the next few days, setting the stage for the next run.

    Good luck PM bulls! I’m outta here for the day.

  204. Shalom Bernanke

    One last thought, if the XAU pulls back to around 210 in a couple days, I might be inclined to add some NUGT (2x XAU)

    caution, it has low volume as a new etf so size accordingly.

  205. Nike Boy2008

    hey guys.

    i’m thinking of moving some money out of GPL…any picks?

    it is starting to looks like dead money for a few months..

    it’s had a nice run from 1.9 to 5 and looks like its going to consolidate for a while..

  206. T.J. Rand

    I considered Stansbury a few months back. I’d heard he was a good analyst, but a google search turned up some sort of ethics action taken against him. So I left him alone.

  207. T.J. Rand

    I’m not a GPL watcher, but the weekly and daily charts look interesting – pennant on the weekly, wedge channel bottom on the daily – although the 60 min chart not so much.

  208. William

    I subscribe to Stansberry and I would recommend him, he and all of his analysts do a great job. There are about 15 different newsletters with advice on dividend stocks, shorts, options, bonds, small caps, gold/silver miners, etc. The one downside is that you have to suffer through numerous email advertisements but it’s a small price to pay. I joined his alliance service over 2 years ago (a lifetime subscription to all services ever published, old and new additions) and it was payed for within the first year a few times over.

    The SEC case that pops up on Porter Stansberry is overblown and he is still contesting it today as an infringement on his first amendment rights, there was no securities fraud involved, he is not a pump and dumper or hyper.

  209. LowTax

    SLW bounced hard! Might be we get more break-outs today… I’m guessing the ECB actually raising rates on Thursday will cement the dollar’s drop into the 3yr low, regardless of bailouts for Portugal, etc.

  210. W


    Ditto on what William wrote.

    I would add that the decision is more keyed to how you plan to use him. I tend to follow other gurus that are part of that organaiation more than Porter, but each to their own. Any of them can make you money if you are doing your homework too.

    btw: It would not surprise me to see him sued again. Considering our current national track, that would likely be a sign he is doing something right.

  211. Aaron

    nitro 1447 is tough because its 1% above yesterday’s close. Thats the ONLY reason why its tough. Closes below and above BB happen all the time.

  212. n1tro


    the overnight movement is good for traders. I realized $1K on the pop and bought back this morning when it dropped and riding the train up. 🙂

  213. kmisak

    Another head fake? Maybe. But let us get a little excited. It’s such a refreshing change from the recent mood on this blog. Endeavour is having a great morning, and may do a little catch-up on the spread between it and FR (AG).

  214. Poly


    IMO, I seriously doubt its a head fake, all other moves leading to this have been and now this is catching them by surprise. We’ve been building at that resistance for a LONG time. We’re in the perfect timing band for some nice strength here leading into a cycle low still some days away.

  215. Matthew

    lol..This board is awesome..Last week silver falling… Ahh sky is falling o no. Almost time to sell..Silver rising this week..yes yes yes It’s time to buy more C wave…I do in advance take out all of you “seasoned investors” However it seems like a good judge of market sentiment

  216. kmisak

    Anyone here invested in Wildcat Silver? I know there are a lot of Americans on this blog, and this little miner’s flagship property is in Arizona. Every time I think its run must be running out of steam it pops again: the little bugger is up 300% in the last three months! I have over 50,000 shares, but wonder how much longer this can last…maybe a transfer soon to HZU (AGQ).

  217. Intern

    William, W

    Do you have a ballpark on subscriptions? Lifetime?

    Can’t get through the ad’s and afraid to give him my email before committing.

  218. n1tro

    I’d save all the celebrating until end of day. DOesn’t Bernanke speak today at 2pm? I’m sure that will whipsaw stuff a bit.

  219. Dan

    I just found a few thousand in my left pocket. Any thoughts on where to put it? Or just hold and wait for any type of pull back?

  220. Shalom Bernanke

    This is a pleasant surprise, and miners are even besting the metals today.


    I scooped up a bunch of uncirculated silver eagles this past weekend at an estate auction (and more junk silver). The best part is I only paid $22-$29 each. I don’t expect to bump into a deal like that soon again.

    I was late and unfortunately the gold was already gone.

  221. Poly

    That’s an encouraging pop on the HUI/

    Matthew, rather to the contrary. Most “of us” have sat quietly undeterred with gold being soft and have repeatedly warned about gold being in the timing cycle for a pop to new high’s.

  222. Razvan

    i will believe it when i see some momentum in the advance. So far the action is ripe with uncertainty. The action i would like to see is how things were proceeding during last years advance from july-november. When we were breaking to new highs in gold there was strong follow up …$20-$30 moves in one day.

  223. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m not doing any buying here.

    I see SVM is a few pennies from a new 52 week high, so I’m gonna go back outside and quit watching my computer. Just letting everything work.

  224. T.J. Rand

    $ not moving much…I wonder if the pop in gold/silver is coming from Sprott’s PHYS announcement of an additional $300 MM in Gold purchases (and the expectation that PSLV will add also).

  225. n1tro


    premiums on the eagles are $3-$4 now so you can sell for $42/ounce. nice little profit. hope everyone is making bundles of money today

  226. William


    Most of the subscriptions are $100 annually. I started out with the Resource Report and did quite well on several of the recs (ex. SVM at $3.80 in June 09). Because of this I looked into the alliance lifetime membership which was $5000 at the time. I decided to go ahead and do it and it was well worth it. They have a great refund policy if you are not happy. I would suggest starting off with one or a few of the newsletters to see how you like them. You will get bombarded by advertisements for other products though. I just hit delete and don’t bother with them. It’s a price you pay as they have to market their material to make money. I liked the lifetime membership b/c I have the advisors that I focus on but it has also broadened my investments by teaching me and introducing me to several strategies that I would have never considered or tried on my own.

  227. pimaCanyon


    You’re missing a fun day.

    I pick up a small position in AXU and NG (on its break above the recent trading range). So far so good, but ALL miners ought to be up today with gold and silver both making new highs.

    Thanks for the alert last night on those two miners!

    HUI is trading well above the TL that formed the upper bound of the triangle that Gary drew in a recent post. It’s also higher than its highs of 3/7 and 3/24, but hasn’t yet breached the high of 12/7.

  228. Eamonn

    Le Fou, that’s great news about you account. I wish I found this blog earlier. I sleep better at night and I’m making real money

  229. pimaCanyon

    In classic 1984 newspeak, front page headline from Yahoo Finance:

    “Bernanke: There Is No Inflation (and If There Were, We Could Stop It)”


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