491 thoughts on “NEW STOPS POSTED”

  1. nutjob

    Gold 1527.84 [up] 20.61 1.35%
    Silver 48.574 [up] 2.970 6.11%
    Platinum 1823.00 [up] 18.50 1.01%
    Palladium 768.00 [up] 15.00 1.95%

    Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

  3. Jayhawk

    Bluehawaii-

    Thanks for the heads up on the pocket pivot!

    Guys & gals..This is getting a little scary watching the dollar get smoked so back tonight. And to think, it’s just starting. Mid 60’s by the end? Yikes.

    Getting cute and selling my stuff was one of the most stressful things I’ve ever been through. I will never, ever try and get cute again like that. I did catch a break and missed some of those miners selling off, but not having a leveraged metal play KILLED my emotions.

    I was then sitting there in cash trying to pick my spot, trying to pick “the best” miner, index, metal, etc. I became too emotional and was having a very hard time pulling the trigger thinking “more downside was coming”. IT SUCKED.

    I just starting buying everything I had on my list once I saw silver crack 46 this afternoon. The miners were going ballistic and I just put in market orders across the board and fired orders into the market.

    Being in cash during the final phase of a bull market blow off cycle could possibly be one of the dumbest things I’ve ever done.

    Newbies, please learn from this idiot.

  4. Jayhawk

    Breaking 50 this early in the cycle would indicate to me to hang on for a bit longer. That’s just me though…Maybe folks could scale out?

  7. Jin

    Jayhawk, I had same experience, except I did not load up enough this afternoon although I did add some DGP, but it is not nearly enough. I will get in rest position tomorrow. It is much harder to start new positions then just adjust what you have. I also need to remember In bull market, buy the dip.

  9. james r

    Jayhawk,

    No worries, I was in cash too.

    Bought into DGP and SIL.

    I used this final C-wave as a learning experience. My first experience on what is called a runner-away move.

    James

  10. San Diego Jack

    Jayhawk,
    You are not the only one. I am kicking myself for over-reacting, and didn’t jump in today. But, I will be up bright and early for the market open to catch some silver miners, but mostly gold miners, since I am afraid a steep silver correction down the line.

  11. ...at ease

    SD Jack, I think we are all learning on this one. Also, have the rest of my powder to use, waiting for the entry and was hoping for a GLD option like that great silver one we got from Gary. So it will be diving into the dip tomorrow with a good guess! LOL
    Here we go!

  13. fat boy

    Well aside from my miss trade last week and re buy of agq at 130 I added some DGP at 47 now sitting on
    Agq 70 %
    sil 12%
    slw 14 %
    DGP 4 %

    120% in And pretty comfortable no big buy and sells as i can,t keep up with you folks
    scary watching drop this week but Today was the biggest single day gain ever on my account cash wise

    Lol tomorrow all

  15. MrMiyagi

    Just gotn incredible jolt as I hadn’t checked the US$ index for a bit…. 72.92. I don’t know what to say, just a couple of weeks ago it seemed that below 76 was unthinkable..

  18. E

    So are we saying that this C-wave goes till 2013 or 2015? I thought we were supposed to get D-wave soon, and A-wave ends in 2013/2015.

  20. Gary

    No this C-wave will end probably by early July. Then the D-wave will begin. Once that has run it’s course then the next ABCD cycle will begin.

  21. David

    D-wave usually lasts 6-8 weeks.

    A-wave lasts 3-4 months.

    B-wave lasts 6-8 weeks.

    The C wave can last 18 months or more.

  24. basil

    Jayhawk,

    don’t beat yourself up over it. I actually had a similar experience. When I turned on my computer this afternoon and saw 13% plus on AGQ I almost puked.

    What I am not sure about though is that if silver is almost at $50 already and we have another six weeks before the dollar low is hit, why wouldn’t we expect silver to get much higher and profit from it?

  25. basil

    Gary,

    by the rate things are going, why not run silver for longer? After all it’s still six weeks until we hit the low in the dollar.

  26. David

    Gary,

    Those of us in SoCal have been planning a meetup in a month or so. At one point you said you’d be in the area for a meet — would you be up for an event like this, and if so on what date?

    You can expect plenty of free burritos and margaritas, if that sweetens the deal any.

  28. David

    Check out the terminology document on the premium site — it explains everything.

    If you are not a subscriber, do so immediately. It will pay for itself by 10AM tomorrow morning.

  29. Slumdog

    David,
    At 50, I’ll buy the drinks somewhere in So Cal that you guys propose.

    I’d like the Westside, as it’s fun and safe. Sta Monica.

    No dives, a place to chat’em up.
    If not a lotta folks, Cheesecake Factory in Brentwood?

    You wanna find the folks? If so, we can swap emails. I’m outta the area after 3 weeks for 3 weeks. Otherwise, my calendar will be cleared. I made my offer here about 3 weeks ago, and it’ll be fun seeing the characters who make this place what it is.

    Or let’s all meet in Vegas at Gary’s fave burrito place, so when the managers see the riff raff, Gary might be in permanent apology of what dropped by.

    I’ll also host drinks in Boston late this month, anywhere in NC at the end of the month, and NOLA in the first week of June, should any be interested.

    It’s been a long time coming. And Missus Market still owes me $80 more to inflation adjust and make her amends. $130…

    Like you David, I’m way up for this splash.

  30. Bosco

    If silver continues to rally in next few days which confirms today is the daily cycle bottom, I plan to stay with silver for 1-2 more weeks even after it passes $50.

    When Gary established the $50 target, we did not have this new daily cycle bottom. I think it is appropriate to reflect new information …. which is the Fed “asks us” to continue the speculations.

    For simplicity, we can hold silver for half of the expected daily cycle and switch to Gold at that time.

  31. New York

    I think the play is getting into undervalued assets as Gary has stressed. Focusing on AGQ makes one feel like they’ve missed the boat.

    Those underinvested may want to think about Garys comments on the miners. He has no plans to sell as he does silver.

    They still have a way to go and silver miners may outperform silver in this blow off.

  34. basil

    The action in some miners and in AGQ today is nuts, and great for everyone who’s been in it. I wasn’t unfortunately. Don’t think I want to chase today’s out-performers, because I am wondering what kind of follow through we are going to see. Might buy into the less explosive movers. THe only thing is that, if silver runs for another four to six weeks into the C wave top, even the 60s seem a low price target. I guess what I am trying to say is that I would hate AGQ to shoot up into the high 400s while I am moving in a very slow vehicle.
    Hm. Damn, what to do?

  36. basil

    David,

    I haven’t looked at the miners very thoroughly lately as I have been invested almost entirely in AGQ. At this point, which ones do you think look good in your opinion?
    Thanks.

    Basil

  37. Jin

    Basil, Even if AGQ shot up to high 400, the percentage wise may not look as well as some miners. (500-360)/360 = 38%. I think you can do as well in miner etf with may be less risk. Just my 2 Cents. I think I just talk my self out of buy AGQ right now.:-)

  38. Return to Resistance

    I think for those who don’t have full positions the miners still offer the best relative value here.

    FWIW, @ $1,650 gold, I think a lot of these stocks will have charts that look like First Majestic’s recent run up…

  40. Hot Rod

    Anyone notice strange things going on tonight?

    The USD is still continuing to be down big.

    For a while, gold was not moving and even down.

    Now, gold has moved up and silver is coming down.

    Is this thin market and after hours “wiggles” and to be completely ignored? Of course, we need to continue to watch.

    I started my conversion to gold today (before the meeting thank god) and the million dollar question I am up later here in NY trying to figure out is how much AGQ and SLV options to keep even after silver hits 50. Even if its a teeny bit percentage.

  41. wingman

    So Cal crew, if you want the best Mexican food AND the best atmosphere, it’s Javier’s in Newport Coast. It’s also the hippest joint in town. You might even bump into Kobe Bryant or Kate Hudson there feasting on the best crab enchiladas you’ll ever taste!

  42. basil

    Jin,

    I think you’re right. Overall miners will be starting from a lower level as some have undergone a correction. I guess I would feel better too to invest in something that feels is more ‘reasonably priced’. WHat miners are you looking at or are you looking at here, if you don’t mind me asking?
    Thx

  44. David

    Basil,

    Honestly, this final stage is going to be so unpredictable, there’s just no way of knowing. Everything’s going to move, and it’s impossible to know what will move most.

    Gary has said he expects SLW to hit $60. That’s like AGQ @ $600.

    Like many here I have pared back my exposure to AGQ. I am now about 50/50 gold/silver.

    I have bought UGL, GDXJ, ANV, GORO, AAU, XG for exposure to gold. I have held onto SLW, AG, EXK, SVM, AXU for silver.

  45. Gary

    My tournament is in Monrovia on May 22 at the area Crossfit. Dinner after sounds good.

    Basil,
    The odds are that silver will continue to lead gold higher. Parabolic moves rarely suffer a big sell off until they are finished. So one could probably continue to ride silver until the dollar gets close to the 08 lows and at that point switch to gold just to be safe.

    I may reconsider switching this early and let my silver ride a while longer.

  46. Jin

    Basil, I plan on staying with what I know for now, EXK, SLW and NUGT. I am going to play NUGT instead of GDX and GDXJ.

  47. wingman

    Basil, it doesn’t have to be an either/or proposition. Buy some AGQ and a spattering of miners, along with some DGP. There are a lot of ways to play this, just be sure not to miss this opportunity. I know it takes courage to jump on and hold onto a hard charging bull, but this is what we’ve been waiting for!

  49. San Diego Jack

    David,
    Thanks for the ABCD explanation, and suggestions to Basil (was just going to ask).

    Gary,
    Thanks for the clarification on Silver. Have some homework to do for tomorrow’s opening.

  51. San Diego Jack

    Wingman,
    The Mexican Food is better in San Diego.
    Much more influence from our southern neighbors and closer too.(you know; Closer to the bone, the sweeter the meat!)

  57. Leilani

    Gary and SoCal Bloggers,

    Monrovia is on the East side. Newport Beach (orange county) and Santa Monica (westside) would not be convenient. If you want real Mexican Food try East Los Angeles.

    Viva Zapatas in North Vegas is great by the way.

    May 22 – too bad so sad…. I will be on out of town. 🙁

  60. San Diego Jack

    Pseudo,
    He said he is reconsidering.
    The Dollar is getting hammered!
    And he has said all along that this parabolic run is based on dollar weakness.
    Be nimble…

  61. ALEX

    GARY

    Last night you said you expect this C-Wave to end by early July now. I was quite surprised ,actually thinking you might state that it could gold could top/dollar crash to 3 yr low sooner.

    I saw the dollar drop from 74 to 72.90 in 24hrs yesterday, you must be expecting the dollar to stop and go sideways for weeks like it did at the’08 low?

    Since the rate of climb should become steeper in Gold, And with Gold rising $1425 to $1525 in less than a month, At the recent rate, Gold could hit $1650 area mid may.

    will you please elaborate on your thinking cycle -wise for our benefit here or in the weekend report? Thanks.

  62. Vish

    Hi all,

    Wondering if anyone can help…

    I have my money in 3 different accounts & I’m looking for an easy way to track the combined portfolio.

    I’m currently using an excel spreadsheet but I’m sure there is something better. Any ideas?

    Thanks.

  63. Poly

    Gary,

    Why the rush ton label new cycles? By your cycle definition, these are not new cycles. The current count of 32 is stretched, but is that alone enough to call a runaway? Was is yesterday’s price action around an expected cycle low that did it?

    Thanks.

  64. ALEX

    VISH

    Sorry I cant help- I do also use an excel spreadsheet , and can auto load the info into the sheet from my acct.

    If you get a better answer, maybe I’ll try it too.

    POLY

    I was talking to JAYHAWKS about options and he mentioned you ,Bob L H and WES and a few others as the ones who do well there, so I will be watching … haha

    Options are not my strength, so I would rarely use them , but would like to use them more in the future c-waves.

    I am away for the morning..Good Day all!

  65. Razvan

    lol i am glad to see Gary is reconsidering his silver trade…
    why the change of heart?? i thought it didnt matter if silver went to $60 we should be out by %50.

    If anyone wants to finish this C wave making pebbles then they should switch out of silver and into gold. A market this strong could care less about what happened 30 years ago. There is no way i drop any of my silver until the next exhaustion move.

  66. T.J. Rand

    I plan to scale from Silver (AGQ) into Gold. Moved 1/3 already (general skittishness), will do the other 2 tranches at some level above 50, depending on the price action. Keeping all my miners.

  67. DG

    SD Jack and All: If we are in the midst of a dollar collapse, shorting will be very hard to pull off successfully. As Gary has said, a dropping dollar tends to boost all other asset classes. I am half tempted not to post the items that show up on my short screen, but will post them with this caveat. Once the 3-year dollar low is in, shorting will be easy and almost everything will work. I will be 100% short then, but am just toying with selected shorts now.

  68. ALEX

    DG

    I know you’ve said that you wanted to share with me some ideal shorts that come up on your radar…so I am going to go ‘all in’ on every short you post from today through June.this is exciting…

    Thanks for sharing! 🙂

  69. Supermalc

    Morning across the pond,

    Newbie sub was waiting for the cycle low yesterday, and is coming back in on the runaway move, now that Gary’s OK’d it past $50 in silver. Anyone got a stop for AGQ? Thanks.

    Supermalc

  70. DG

    Good idea Alex! My other suggestion is that you take a remedial reading course. (Hey—I thought you were gone for the rest of the morning? You leave like an Italian family leaves…an hour of “goodbyes.”)

  72. DG

    Supermalc: Stops are placed off the action in gold. Silver is too thin. The gold stop is usually the previous cycle low. You sell silver if the stop in gold is reached.

  74. Taurus

    Vish, Alex

    Try using Google finance, it works a treat for me.. You can track multiple portfolios, or combine them all into one.

  76. Haggerty

    Morning Everyone

    Anyone adding the rest of their dry powder this morning? If so are you doing it at the open or are you going to wait a little? Thanks

  77. KC

    Haggerty,

    FWIW, I am adding half. My target will be 7 am. I like to wait 30 minutes to an hour after the open. Just my plan

  78. Intern

    DG,

    You said that you don’t use options and little if any margin?

    Your positions sizes are already large enough? Don’t want to be distracted?

  79. Haggerty

    Gary,

    If you are around, I think you said this might run till early July. With the dollar falling this fast, where do you think the dollar could end up? 67?

  80. catbird

    1Q GDP was a crappy 2.8%. Shalom must need to oil his presses.

    Wow. June is really going to be interesting. Stocks might drop off the table with the “end” of QE.

    We should do a burrito bet on the over/under in terms of the number of weeks before some no “Easing” program is announced.

  82. catbird

    Arrggh….I meant to say “new” easing program, not “no.”

    I obviously haven’t had my morning coffee…sorry for the clutter.

  84. 86d4life

    Haggerty,
    Pretty much went in yesterday afternoon and evening. There`s a little cherry on top money left if the cherry arrives. The dollar is bouncing around like a March hare so who knows. I have a pretty good idea what it will look like a month from now!

    Oh, went with DGP. Who knows how squirrely this silver thing is going to get?

  87. Haggerty

    864life

    I have a little cherry in one account and I was thinking some gdxj aug calls at 40.

    Rob L

    I am playing miners heavy but for the most part just gdxj and Sil and some slw. Plus Nugt, little bit DGP

  91. DG

    Intern: I am happy at 100% and have enough money now. If I make 50% in a year it’s plenty. Options and big leverage (for me at least) require extra vigilance and tension. I have no ego invested in trading where I need to see how much I can make or to beat someone else’s return. I think it is great that people here make more than I do, but I am very happy with my levels. And the younger guys especially ought to “go for it” with discipline and Gary’s help. No great philosophical point for me, just I am happier with my size levels. (I have to admit that given my style of entry point selection and tight stops I am sometimes tempted to go “TZ” for a year and use 3-6 times leverage, but I like to be able to sleep at night!)

  93. Poly

    “It seems the 8dma was golden again.”

    86d4life, you were too right!

    Which is also why I stay defensive. If we get a “real cycle low” and the 8dma is violated as expected, we’re back to talking 10% Silver drop.

  97. Shalom Bernanke

    Good morning all.

    traderlady,

    I’ll see what happens after the open, and look for a window to buy some NUGT, SVM, as well as some gold etf (PHYS or DGP).

    I’ll keep wide stops as noted yesterday, and adjust my size lower accordingly to avoid a shakeout should a pullback occur. Best to have a size I can hold comfortably. 🙂

  100. DG

    Bought more DGP at the opening. Will be adding either AGQ or DGP about twice a week for a week or two. I’ll be buying every time I see red.

  102. 86d4life

    Poly,
    No, you and your chart were too right and I didn`t listen! Remember the other day when silver cracked the 44.80? I had the gut feeling at the time that that was the moment to strike. And I didn`t. The Greed! At that time, what was my possible gain if silver or gold had dropped lower? Not enough to cover the extra I had to pay to get to where I am now. I ignored the risk/reward and am a little disappointed in myself. Thankfully I have the bull to cover my short comings. But we will get to play again another day!!

  103. Poly

    Making a little splash with OTM’s, a calculated lottery play of sorts.

    Picked up 100 June $160 GLD’s @ $0.84.

    Figure even if we print a new “real” daily cycle low it will be quick and short lives as far as GLD is concerned.

  104. Poly

    86d4life,

    Yeah that was kind of my point, it was a good point to trade with a tight stop. It was probably either going to bounce hard off that 8dma or fall right through. I was thinking fall through, but in hindsight should have played both scenarios.

  107. DG

    The past two weeks is an ideal time to take stock of who you are as a trader. Step back, take a few minutes, and look at it. If you got out and were light, what happened? The only real disaster in trading is not learning from errors. Was it an error? Did you hesitate to get back in if you sold at 362 as many of us did? Will you make that mistake again and so should go Old Turkey more? Knowing oneself as a trader is really the key. There are lots of right ways to do this (I liked that I said “I am buying now” and SB said “I am surely not buying now”) but you absolutely need to know your own style and weaknesses and take them into account rather than fantasizing you are someone else. Then build a system around who you actually are, and change it as you grow.

    My trading philosophy for the day…

  108. The Angry Hippie

    So whats the differential, SB?

    I rushed in this morning. Missed out on tons of cash trying to time an entry over the past 10days or so. I figure these prices will look like bargains in a couple weeks, if not sooner. Am I mistaken?

  115. Rob L.

    DG,

    Now that we are in the final leg of the C-wave, in your opinion does an experienced trader take risk off the table, i.e turn silver into gold, or do they go for the jugular?

  117. mdsn

    DG,
    Great advise. I know I learned a lot about me as a trader in the past 2 months. Thanks to Gary and all the other solid traders here, too many to mention individually. Those who share and post really do help a lot!

  119. Edwin

    DG – very good advice.

    may add,
    easy to look at things in hindsight.
    so learn your own personal comfort. so what if you missed this move. you think this is over, bah as my dad said, if the train is full wait for the next train.

    there will be many other opportunities.

    in the big picture, the PM trend is up. so don’t fight it. determine your outlook and time frame.

    For me I’m in it for life.
    If you’re leveraged, you’d be dead so you have to be careful. it depends on how you’re accounts are setup.

    Long term, non leverage play on the pure metal. Simple.

  120. Hot Rod

    Experienced Options Traders,

    When you guys sell your options and need to exit quickly (e.g. bid might not have enough volume for your order) do you put in market orders for options or do you still only trade with limits?

    I feel like if you need to exit fast, you have to go with market but I can see the market makers in options murdering you.

  121. DG

    Randall: Just calculate the percentage drop gold needs to have to hit the stop and use that to figure out where GLD would be then using that percentage decrease.

    RobL: I like the idea of going for it when I have a large profit as I am playing with “house money.” Many good traders, for example, advocate selling 50% of a position if/when it doubles because then the rest is “free.” You don’t want to get reckless, of course, as that’s always wrong (don;t throw the profit away!) but we have a month left on this thing until the 3-year dollar low, so I will be adding often. Don’t take stuff off the table yet. The next time you have a day where you think “Holy cow! Look at that!” would be the next time to even think about taking something off. I’d wait a gap up after a “holy cow” day to sell anything. If this is Day 1 of the new cycle you have lots of time.

  122. 86d4life

    Poly,
    Really well put. At the very least, I knew I should have taken at least a partial position but the greed did it`s thing. I guess where I`m a little disappointed is I thought maybe I had learned/evolved beyond that. You know, the way agq was banging away at that 314-315, I thought it had to get through eventually, but for more than 38 seconds.

    DG,
    Sage words again. And we`re fortunate to have the bull to pay the price of our education.

    Kind of likin` DGs Pick too! 🙂

  125. MrMiyagi

    Hot Rod,
    If the price of your stock is falling fast then a market order is ok.
    However, market orders usually get filled at bendover rates. Your best bet is put a limit order below the bid, for example; bid 5.10 ask 5.20. If you put in an ask of 5.00, you will probably get filled fast and at 5.10.

  126. Driver

    Randall,

    Just use the GLD pivot that coincides with the $GOLD pivot, timewise. Take the GLD low on that day and work from that for your stop.

  128. Hot Rod

    Mr. Miyagi,

    Much appreciated, as always. I thanked TZ yesterday for his post on gold but I never got around to thanking you.

    A week ago when you outlined a good DITM SLV call (39 or 40) – it gave me the confidence and clarity to get me feet wet with options. Muchos Gracias.

  129. Poly

    Hot Rod,

    A very good reason why I dont trade options on any miner! The spreads are horrible in the good time. TRUST ME, when you want out, the spread is a nightmare and there is nobody bidding.

    Stick with the big tracking etf’s like SLV, they pool is deep, it’s “almost” safe enough to even trigger your sale.

  131. DG

    This bull is going to be around for years. If we learn from our errors and get better each cycle our SMT crowd is going to be able to collectively buy Manhattan in about four years! Let’s all approach this as a business with a great board of directors for support.

  133. MrMiyagi

    Hot Rod,
    Also the reverse works, if the bid is 5.05 and ask 5.15 and like me your broker doesn’t allow 5 cent increments, bid 5.20 and you will get filled at 5.15 90% of the time. If you bid at 5.10, you may not get filled if the price trend is up.

  134. Rob L.

    DG,

    Thanks again for the wonderful advice. I consider myself fortunate to learn from you and the other traders on this board.

  136. MarkMarin

    DG

    On taking profits vs. adding when a stock doubles, I think it also depends on the type of stock. For a thinly traded, volatile miner, it’s usually a good idea to take some profits if/when it doubles. For a liquid ETF, doubling down with house money can generate an exceptional payday. I’ve seen many illiquid miners give up their gains in a few trading days and have the scars to prove it.

  139. Jayhawk

    SB-

    The silver miners are trying to break out of channels, looks like SVM and SLW are now back testing them. Should be ready to roll from here hopefully.

    SLW

    SVM

    AGQ junkies are going to have a hard time converting to DGP. It’s like going from a 5 shot expresso latte to a decaf light roast coffee.

  140. 86d4life

    DG,
    So right. I signed up with Gary in January and I really have a hard time believing how far I`ve come since then. Everybody that posts here is important. I feel pretty fortunate to be here.

  141. Razvan

    DG lets start our own hedge fund!
    if Bernie Madoff can collect billions from investors and keep them happy with 14% early returns i think we can make a killing by offering investors 100-200% returns of actual profits!

    we can implement a system where we all vote on actual trades with some people having more weight than others based on experience and previous success.

  142. Randall

    I will “use the low on GLD for the same day that Gary is using the low for $GOLD” = $145.48 GLD conditional stop.

    One account does not have the conditional option; would it be reasonable to use the equivalent AGQ low on that same day for a stop? = $311.80 AGQ stop…

  144. 86d4life

    Raz,
    Sounds like a great plan, but I see one problem. It would take about 8 minutes and we would start disapearing off the face of the earth, one at a time.

  145. Poly

    You’re right Jay. I don’t see ANY point in trading DGP, none. Even Gary is predicting a 10% rise in Gold from these levels, that’s some 20% TOTAL for the remainder of the C-Wave being in DGP.

    I would just trade the gold miners, they have always seemed to handsomely do better than 2x gold.

  146. KAL

    Poly,

    Been thinking the same. Are you going into NUGT as SB plans to do? Or are you picking a basket? Thanks.

  148. Razvan

    we can leave the money in garys name…he is honest and wouldn’t run away with the money. However we would have to close off SMT to new users otherwise the market would get distorted quickly.

  149. Jayhawk

    NUGT (double HUI fund) vs DGP coming out of the last daily cyle.

    You were better off being long 2x gold miners and then swapping mid to late cycle to 2x gold.

    NUGT

  151. T.J. Rand

    DG- Great wisdom. To add a few cents to it…

    Trade within yourself and your knowledge set. Don’t buy options and junior miners because everyone else seems excited. Understand the risks of OTM options before taking the plunge, and do due diligence on individual miners before buying in.

    If you’re not comfortable with options yet, learn for the next wave. (I pretty much stick to Moderately ITM – not yet comfortable with Poly’s lottery tickets)

    If you haven’t learned about individual miners, stick to the ETFs or ETNs (I’m in this camp) – you’ll still make a terrific return.

    The name of the game at this point is not to squeeze every nickel out, but to get as much capital as possible safely to the A wave.

  154. YesLetsDiscuss

    Jayhawk,

    Thats exactly what happened to me. I bought gold futures yesterday corresponding to what I used to hold in silver futures. And I kept watching the slow rise in gold compared to silver. Damn that was frustrating.

    After a lot of thinking and drinking last night, I finally added silver to the mix this morning knowing its risky, but seeing a top much higher than 50. After that, I felt like I’m invested.

  155. DG

    Raz: You may be joking but I have thought about it. I am getting so tired of the delays my HF partner deals me I have been thinking about going elsewhere with my trading system. The problem is if I share how it works the person i share it with can just steal it. The guy I am working with is totally honest and is the close friend of a good friend who swears by him. Maybe a few of us should start a fund! I’d hate to deal with any legal or back office issues, and my partner has his own multi-year HF set up so that’d all be his headache. i would just make trading decisions. That I can do!

  156. Razvan

    good job N1tro,
    my milestone is to reach quadruple digit percentage returns for 2011. I never thought i would see it this time around but i am very close.

  157. CMT

    Haggerty, I don’t know if you can see Hammy’s blog, but he has some nice Dollar charts up. Looks like 73.13 would be resistance on his charts (he draws nice ones), so looks like USDX just going up to (hopefully) get smacked down into the channel there.

  162. pimaCanyon

    Stop on GLD:

    The easy way to do this is to look at the Gold chart that Gary posted, see where the stop is on that chart (below the low of a certain day), then look at the GLD chart, look at the same day, see what the low is for that day, then put your stop a little below that low (like 25 or 50 cents below).

  163. n1tro

    No magic here guys. I just use Gary’s cycles and trade my style. Not a bad return on 13K investment 🙂

    But seriously, I got my inspiration from DG and some of the other members here playing with their 7 digit accounts. Thanks to all.

  165. T

    DG instead of creating a hedge fund, I believe you can simplify it a bit by using a service like interactive brokers; people setup their own accounts, than hand the position management over to you to manage, taking a % monthly of their accounts or however you want to “get paid”. Much less complicated than creating a hedge fund structure. You’re obviously legally on the hook, but if you manage people’s money, you always are…

  166. Razvan

    we can let Gary deal with the paperwork..you know how he loves that lol!!

    a hedge fund is definitely the way to go towards incredible wealth. The hard part is gaining the trust of rich folks to invest their money with you.

    As for charity, we should give money to politicians so they actually do the right thing for the american people.

  167. Jayhawk

    jhnewman-

    I think you were the one talking to me about the HUI triangle.

    It held on the daily close again! I’m very happy about that.

    Notice we have a smaller type triangle thing working now…Break out of that and the HUI can start running more.

    HUI

  168. KAL

    I can help run the back office from Charlotte. I can get an office up near Wachovia/Wells and BofA. We’ll be legit. Just pay me what’s fair. That would be sweet.

  171. pimaCanyon

    To be safe on the GLD stop (because gold trades 24 hours whereas GLD does not), calculate it both ways:

    1) percentage drop based on percentage drop of gold
    2) use the low of the day that is the same low we’re using on the gold chart, less 25 cents or so.

    then use the lower of those two calculations.

  172. DG

    T: Yes, but then you are dealing with individual accounts and positions which I prefer not to do. Plus there’d be a huge marketing job to get wealthy people to run over discretionary trading authority to you. A partner has a marketing dept., a track record, and wealthy clients they can go to and say “Here’s a new fund that’ll do well for you…” I don’t want another business to manage. Good idea thought that I will keep in the back of my mind. Who knows…

  173. 86d4life

    DG,
    I checked out something here a year or so ago called Tiger Rock Capitol. Essentially what T was talking about. People set up an account with your brokerage and you have acess. You do the trading and charge a monthly fee. they were talking about some pretty good returns, but due dilligence suggested it may have been a scam so I passed.

  174. Shalom Bernanke

    “The hard part is gaining the trust of rich folks to invest their money with you.”- Razvan

    It’s not as hard as people believe it is to get involved with a firm, just let the numbers do the talking.

    Although, they are not only interested in the returns, but more importantly the level of risk taken to get there. 🙂

  179. Jayhawk

    moondogie-

    for all my joking about “little kitty” I actually bought few yesterday. Looking pretty good if it gets over 4. AG needs to get above 23 or so to get rolling. These popped hard yesterday PM so I’m guessing some digesting of the move here.

  180. Brian

    Alex and Vish, I have six accounts between the Mrs and myself. I use Fidelity’s Active Trader Pro software. It allows you to combine all the accounts into one. Within the software you can look at the accounts all together or one at a time. It has a lot of other nice features that make it worth looking into. Charting is not the very best, but the combining of the account, reports, etc, are real nice.

    N1tro, Great job!

  182. n1tro

    Moondog,

    My trading style is a big no-no in gary’s books so I wouldn’t call it good but thats all I got given my day trading background. I’ve followed Gary since last summer.

  184. T

    DG, totally valid points. Just wanted to point it out. I worked in the HF world for a decade and it’s becoming a higher & higher bar to entry now. If you can become a desk within a multi-strat firm, then you would get what you want without the overhead, but you’re PnL would still pay into the infrastructure supporting you…

  185. The Angry Hippie

    The first time we got close to $50 silver there was a lot of talk of profit taking. I am assuming this time most will be holding through a $50 print in expectation of (much?) higher numbers?

  186. EricH

    Gary,
    Is your game plan the same? When silver trades above 50 you are going to sell all your silver holdings and rotate it into Gold/gold miners?

  188. pimaCanyon

    Eric,

    Gary mentioned he’s reconsidering that plan. He also said that he won’t be answering questions on the blog or by email until next week. So I think we’re kind of on our own on this one.

  192. Leilani

    Eric H.

    This is a quote from Gary last night.

    “The odds are that silver will continue to lead gold higher. Parabolic moves rarely suffer a big sell off until they are finished. So one could probably continue to ride silver until the dollar gets close to the 08 lows and at that point switch to gold just to be safe.”

    I checked the 2008 dollar index and the low was $70.69 in March.

  194. DG

    I bet G doesn’t sell his AGQ at 50 and move into GDP. We just had a sharp drop. We shouldn’t get another one this soon. We’re only on day 2 of the new cycle (assuming we are in a runaway and that sharp drop was all we’re going to get). If you look at 2006, it was straight up day after day, and then the 17% drop. Anything is possible but how many late comers that need to get punished can we have picked up in two days? I am not switching at 50.

    The other thing is that if we have a big crack it will evolve during the day. I am watching all day sol can start to bail if a dip gets out of hand. I do not believe we will close at a high and just gap down big the next day. We’d have an exhaustion candle first or profit-taking will snowball. Either way, IF you are nimble, you’d have warning signs.

  197. YesLetsDiscuss

    Massive drops! There should be plenty of support here. Dollar again approaching the trend line as well.

    I think its a good spot to add and place stops below supports.

  198. Shalom Bernanke

    Here’s the late morning dip I was waiting for, so will step into NUGT here.

    Keeping very wide stop of $4, with corresponding lower size and looking to add more on dips I hope are coming. 🙂

  200. Shalom Bernanke

    KAL,

    To me it’s more important what the average range is each day, for say the last 20 days.

    Since in this instance I’m “chasing” and buying into short term up movement, I suspect/hope I’ll need more wiggle room=wider stop.

    So this trade I’ll move up to the weekly average range, which is around $4 for NUGT.

  202. YesLetsDiscuss

    Just heard on CNBC that London closed and traders there sold their positions for the long weekend. The exchanges are closed Friday and Monday for the royal wedding. Thats DUMB!

  204. Jennifer

    Sorry guys, that was my fault. I decided to make my first little buy in weeks. As soon as I hit “confirm” we dropped like a rock. I mean, like the second I hit it. I think I will just stop messing with things from here on. 🙂

  205. Shalom Bernanke

    In short, it depends on my time frame. I do lots of shorter term trades with closer stops and more shares, but this trade is expected to be held for weeks so more room and less shares.

  210. Poly

    I didn’t care for that action at all, dropped half my position and will pick it up a little more expensive if I have to.

  215. KAL

    That was scary… Anybody got stops on AGQ at all? Don’t want a re-enactment of what happened the other day if silver has trouble again.

  216. Brian

    Poly, I think action like that is going to become more common. That is why the switch was discussed in the first place.

  219. Michael

    Do you think that they are going to make it easy for you to make those gains? The bull will do everything to throw you off. Hold on tight and you will be rewarded.

  220. Shalom Bernanke

    NUGT is finally getting some interest. I’m content with my fills and even got some when it turned red on the day.

    Still have to break up orders, though maybe that’s about to change?

  221. Poly

    Brian,

    You’re perfectly correctly, which is why Gary’s strategy negates these moves. But many of us, some leveraged, are a little more sensitive to them. I’m still trading a runaway as per Gary, but respect the possibility that the dollar can dead cat bounce and help print a gold cycle low.

  223. DG

    I believe the PM market is going to get increasingly volatile. If you have a large profit (and you should by now!) just ignore it or you will sell every dip and buy back higher each time. I would not be surprised if AGQ closed at the day’s high having now shaken out all the late-comers. Gold sentiment is dead neutral. We will not top out until it is frothy. There”s a long way to go. If you are too heavy you may have a problem with the volatility; otherwise go out for lunch and dinner, preferably consecutively.

  225. Jayhawk

    KAL-

    Don’t use stops, they’ll get blown out and the move will reverse like yesterday. Gary is your guide…I’d look at /SI 45.50 as a “mental stop”. I like 360 as short term support. (NO stop there, fyi)

    DGP-

    Nice channel break out & backtest.

    DGP

  226. KAL

    Wise words DG. This is my first day with margin. Not much since I’m new, but it’s gonna take some getting used to. I have two small calls and margin now. Never thought I’d say that until I found Gary. With your all’s help, this guy may retire one day.

    BTW, Did anyone notice the huge volume jump in AGQ when it broke 365?

  229. MrMiyagi

    These dollar moves in minutes are not good for silver, I feel that they scare out the mom & pop buyers that we need to steadily climb the price up.

  230. YesLetsDiscuss

    Second week in a row where London holidays causing massive drops. Its really lame that they close for 2 days for a wedding.

    But hey, if those lows hold, all the better for me.

  231. KAL

    Thanks also Jayhawk. This will be my last slow week at work for a while. I guess I get to watch the show for another couple days, and then nose to the grindstone.

  235. ALEX

    Quick note…I just bought more MDW and EXK on this pullback. I looked on a 3 day chart, checked volumes , and volume was good up, lighter coming back today. Seems like a ‘gap fill’ from this morning.

    Just a lunch break for me, gotta run

    Happy trading!

  236. Hot Rod

    Jennifer,

    As Gary will say, the bull market negates all timing mistakes.

    He mentioned here a few weeks ago to use the oversold RSI on the 5 minute chart if one were looking for entry points.

    We hit that oversold just at 12 noon and are now moving up out of it (for now).

  237. Shalom Bernanke

    I hear you Miyagi. The one thing that has me apprehensive is that the S&P is due to correct while miners have underperformed. They can go in opposite directions so it’s not a deal-killer, but it will keep me from getting aggressive.

  238. Vonda

    The Will&Kate effect? Ha!!

    You’ll retire Kal, sooner than you planned if you keep at it.

    Speaking of which, miracle returns, Nitro!! Congrats!!!

    I’m loading up here.

    Bought my first GORO, $30.70. (Major spreads on that little sucker!)

    GDXJ, 41.62

    Slinked back into AG, 21.62.

    Oh, and finally gave up on SLW. They were May 35 calls anyway, slightly in the green when I dumped earlier this morning.

    Guess my conversion from silver to gold is underway. Straddling both fields for now.

  242. Eamonn

    Hi, I have some GLD call options. Does anyone know of a tool online for which I could calculate profits/loss as price on GLD changes?

  245. Haggerty

    Fubsy

    you look like Brett Favre pal.

    I really need to turn off the computer and walk away. Jayhawk thanks for the charts. See you guys later

  247. pimaCanyon

    I think gold drops to 1520, plus or minus a couple of bucks. From there, we should continue higher.

    However, if we break below 1519 or so, the elusive daily cycle low could be unfolding (meaning we go lower, probably to around 1500).

  250. San Diego Jack

    DG,
    Thanks for your comments earlier. The position I took on EWJ is very small w/a tight stop. Am testing the water, that’s all. Will wait for your signals when the market, and you, say it is more favorable.

  252. Sandy101

    SD Jack,

    I remember worrying about buying AGQ at lowest level of the day when it was near 130 $. Just doesn’t matter now as to what point of the day you bought as long as you bought!

  253. DG

    SDJ: We are going to have a sensational shorting opportunity when this PM bull leg is over. The dollar will rally and stocks will get crushed. I am just toying until then. There’s often a late morning dip (which we had) the afternoon to me is more questionable. Add some now, and some later if we keep rallying (?)

  254. Wes

    Guys,

    I think the big drops of the 17% variety that silver has exhibited in past years are all at the end of extended positive runs. Now I’m not talking about moves into daily lows here, just drops that come “from out of the blue”.

    These types of moves can be modeled, and, if sufficient restraint is used, can be avoided.

    I have a live chart for silver that warns me when we are getting into the “danger zone”.

    I’ve done this because I think silver is the trade I want going forward. I intend to stay leveraged in silver until I get such a warning.

    I will post when I get this signal, but I warn everyone that my first order of business will be to execute my trades and the warning may not be timely.

    I suggest others also work out their own models for this type of warning if they want to continue to trade silver.

  255. ALEX

    P.S. I’m just trying to catch up on this blog…when you read it in a sustained manner, its a great little community. I enjoy everyone s posts.

    Congrats to NITRO (thats how far behind I am on this blog…pg 1 still 🙂

    DG, cant you copyright your idea, then take it to another firm?

  257. DG

    Wes is right. The scary huge one-day drop comes after day upon day of rally. We are only on day two! (assuming the daily cycle bottom is in).

  258. Hot Rod

    Is everyone seeing very light volume on the silver comex today? Maybe I am looking at the wrong chart.

    I am still looking at the SIK11 (May silver). Volume is 33k contracts so far.

  259. DG

    Alex: Yes you can, but patenting it just gives you the right to sue whoever who steals it from you! After years of legal battles and expenses you would PROBABLY win. Not for me! I’d rather pass on the whole enterprise if I can’t find someone I trust completely. (Did you leave yet or is this post still part of your “goodbye”?)

  264. Vonda

    Re: Ireland, not just yet, Kal. Have got 10 days (and the hurdle of oral exams at university) between now and then.

    Do I remember correctly that parts of you come from those parts too?

  266. GottaHaveIt

    Wes,

    I’m with you … I’m riding silver until we get close to the top. Silver is where the action is (and the risk).

    The problem is figuring when to get out before it’s too late.

    Can you share the parameters you are using on your live silver chart that tells you when to bail out?

  268. KAL

    Hey, Vonda. What’re you studying?

    You do have a good memory! I guess I neglected to say how old my Irish roots are. 1760’s… Haha. All the last names in my family are pretty easy to follow fortunately! I like genealogy for the great stories. Were you born there? It looks so beautiful. Hafta get there one day with some of this loot Gary’s making for me!

  270. DG

    Whitebear: Don’t post junk like that. There are new people on this board trying to make some money who can really use it. If you have a reason for thinking they are going to go down, post it. If not, what are you trying to scare people for? Does it help you somehow if they panic out of their positions? C’mon, man, we’re trying to to do something decent here.

  272. pimaCanyon

    Hot Rod,

    Apparently July is the active month now for Silver. Volume is heavy today, higher than yesterday, but 4/25 and 4/26 were the largest volumes of the year.

  276. pimaCanyon

    gold and silver futures markets are now “closed” for the day. Trading continues in the after hours, but most of the time it’s low volume.

    I still think there’s a good chance that gold drops to 1519-1522, but probably won’t happen till tomorrow, or maybe during the overnight session. If that area does not hold, then we will likely go all the way down to 1500.

  282. GottaHaveIt

    Wav_ridah,

    I really like RVMID as a long-term hold, but I sold it a couple of weeks ago to play AGQ for the final push of the C Wave.

    I plan to buy Revett at the bottom of the D Wave for a long-term hold.

    Right now I’m all AGQ with some SLV and GLD options.

  283. DG

    Silver is going to be volatile as hell from here on. Trade small and keep Pepto Bismol handy if you are not used to it. 30-40-even 50 point moves in AGQ. SB’s habit of buying on weakness will serve well here, IMO

  284. Vonda

    Kal,

    Nope. Born stateside. This is my first trip and it’s definitely a pilgrimage in honor of the multiple generations who emigrated and couldn’t return.

    Am studying depth psychology, the lineage of Freud and Jung. My orals are on the Axiom of Maria Prophetissa (alchemy) in the music of Mozart as a sort of defense of the Enlightenment. It will be nice to be distracted from the market for pretty much the remainder of the C-wave. (in theory)

    As for Ireland, hope you get there too!
    Something tells me you will . . .

  285. KAL

    Wow Vonda, sounds like a tough project. Definitely you use a side of your brain that is non-functional in my cabesa!

  286. YesLetsDiscuss

    Wow, what a shakedown. Are we done yet? I got stopped out with a loss in Silver. Have no stops in gold.

    Gold is a rock compared to the volatile silver sea.

  287. Poly

    Pima,

    Closed some AM, bought them back, sloppy trading. Then I got stopped out on SLV calls when they plunged to $46.35.

    (I set daily stops on SLV to avoid a massive drop while I’m in meetings/away from desk)

    Bought half of the SLV back little while ago, again! Removed stop on these, place them as core and let them ride. Like I said, rather sloppy today, think I need a break from the screen.

    Goi

  288. Vonda

    Thanks, Kal! I like it – gives me something else to focus on when AGQ busts through $313-315 in the “wrong” direction!

  289. ALEX

    JUST IN CASE- anyone is a little worried about todays pullback.

    What I do (helps a lot) is check my charts on a 5 day / 15 minute chart.
    Is my stock pulling back on less and less volume.

    See this EXK 5 day , notice volume and stochastics shows its getting oversold. Buyers will be back soon…and its only about a 50% retrace from yesterday=Healthy pullback…I buy it.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/gsl3fawo3YA

  290. pimaCanyon

    Thanks, Poly. I’d say you’re allowed a day or two here and there of sloppy trading considering the kind of returns you’ve managed to achieve.

    As you’ve mentioned, the daily cycle low could still be ahead of us even though that would make the cycle a very long onw. If you’re highly leveraged, riding out that move down would be uncomfortable, so reducing your position size in anticipation of that makes sense.

    Me, I’m not leveraged, sitting with GLD calls and even some GLD shares. Small positions in AXU, NG, NUGT, and GDXJ. If we do get the daily cycle low, I plan to just ride it out and maybe add a little when it looks like the bottom is in.

  294. ALEX

    HELP

    while online I went to “view” options at the top of the page and accidentally removed the whole top of the browser ( address box is gone, the options tab, view tab, etc all gone. All I have at the top of the page are ‘tabs’ of windows open etc.)

    I’ve right clicked everywhere, the task bar below etc..the only thing I have is my ‘favorites’ on the left to open web pages.

    Anyone know how to get the top of my online browser bar back?? Thanks

    http://www.screencast.com/t/r95JRU5r

  296. n1tro

    Pima,

    Your call for gold to go down to $1520 or lower based on anything quantifiable or is it your “gut” feeling?

  300. royboy1979

    Gotta,
    Just curious if you could share your GLD options…strike and month. If I missed from a previous post I apologize…I followed Gary’s SLV action but was interested in your play here. Thanks.

  301. ddn3f

    All day I was trying to post on this blog from different computers and different internet browsers and kept on getting an error message. If anyone is reading and was trying to post and gets a strange error message. Close your browser, clear everything. Then start a new window, go to http://www.blogger.com and sign in there. Then you can come back to the blog and post.

    That solved my problem. It only took most of the day.

  303. ALEX

    MR.M

    Thats gone too! I have bookmarks toolbar and bookmarks menu on the left side, but that didnt work.

    NEIL

    That was close…I currently only have tabs of which windows are open. F11 made then disappear too, F11 brought them back. 🙂

    I also shut down the internet and came back, but apparently I now have this as my ‘settings’ 🙁

  309. DG

    Alex; Is your computer turned on? Are your eyes open? (If not that would explain why you can’t see the top of the browser.)

    [Sorry, computer problems are a pain, but I couldn’t help it.]

  315. The Angry Hippie

    So if the miners were discounting an expected correction in gold. Does their underperformance today, after the supposed runaway correction, indicate the miners (epecially silver) don’t think we have fully corrected yet?

  316. Jennifer

    Can you get into your file menu? If not, hit alt + F, once in there, right click on File Menu and select “menu bar” or “navigation toolbar” depending on whats missing.

  318. ALEX

    PETER, no, other options came up, but not restoring my browser

    DG

    ARRRRR, Its too early to drink on the East Coast, but you’re pushing me

    everybody thanks..I do have a few I.T. guys that are great at this stuff, but I know on here we have a lot of sharp p.c. guys too

    ahhh, heads up…DG is NOT one of them!!

  320. MrMiyagi

    So Alex,
    If I understand, you have no address bar, no nothing to enter a web address nor the dropdown menus for bookmarks history and all that crap?

  322. CMT

    ALEX, rightclick on the browser pane (as high as you can); you should get a drop-down menu, the first item of which is an “unchecked” “Menu Bar” – you need to get that checked again.

  323. ALEX

    JENNIFER

    THANK YOU! THE ADDRESS BAR IS BACK…i LOVE THOSE MAGIC FORMULAS THAT i DONT KNOW!!

    EAMMONN

    Thats funny, because I couldnt copy/paste that into my missing browser – haha, but thanks

    THANKS EVERYONE (EXCEPT DG :), A GOLD BAR FOR EVERYONE!

  324. DG

    Alex: Maybe you had to open your eyes to hit Alt + F, and that’s why you could then see your browser? Geez, I’m just trying to be helpful. I don’t get a gold bar? (I think this volatility is getting to me. I should turn off my machine and go soak my head or something.)

  326. Eamonn

    Google Chrome is smarter than Firefox and Internet Explorer. I love the synching of preferences, usernames, passwords, and bookmarks to the cloud

  327. ALEX

    CMT

    the ‘address bar’ alone was restored by Jennifers ‘file menu’ advice,
    and the regular settings I had before were restored when I followed your advice (menu was unchecked). I couldnt get to it without the address bar…strange. Thanks!

  329. DG

    Interesting: Gary had said that the miners would be expected to explode out of a daily cycle bottom. Well, they sure aren’t exploding today. That either means that it’s different in a runaway move, or the daily cycle bottom is still ahead, which seems odd as we are already so late. does anyone who has been using Gary’s cycles longer than I (or understands them better) have an opinion?

  332. 86d4life

    With everybody firing solutions at the guy, he is gonna blow his machine right out of the water!

    Alex, laughing with you and not at you man! The coyote was good…..

  333. royboy1979

    Gotta,
    I appreciate your candor…neither am I. I’ve studied for awhile and played around with them in fake accounts but got my feet wet on Tuesday with July SLV 40 Calls. Now looking at what others are doing with GLDs. Did you work any of the June SLW’s?

  334. CMT

    ALEX, I cared so much, I went in and turned all mine off to put myself in that position. Scared for a bit until I got them back on.

  335. Ryan

    I added 2 big chunks of DGP yesterday and today before the big drop this morning and I can say for anyone thinking of switching some silver to gold you might want to do that to save your nerves. I still hold a large AGQ position but if I added more AGQ instead of DGP, I would of puked big time watching the volatility today.

  336. GottaHaveIt

    royboy,

    I don’t like SLW or any other stock for options, I just stick with the pure metals: SLV and GLD.

    But I’m a rookie, don’t listen to me!

    Ask Poly, BobLovesHawaii, Mr. M. and the other experienced options traders on here for advice.

  339. Supermalc

    I’m another rookie sub and a bit confused today. I thought we were done with the cycle low as we are now in a runaway for both gold and silver, driven only by the falling dollar. AGQ wasn’t paying much attention to the dollar today, and the board is full of talk of a low tomorrow, and yes Ryan, the volatility nearly had me earlier. Can anyone enlighten me please? Thanks.

    Supermalc

  340. ALEX

    Mr. M

    Now I see what you were saying, but my address bar AND ‘file- edit- view -history- etc etc etc was all gone too. All I had was open ‘tabs’

    Thanks though!

    86D4LIFE

    Yup, thought I had ACME browser from the coyote

    TRADERLADY

    I like both! Dirty goose martini 🙂

    CMT

    MAN! You guys really go above and beyond! 🙂

  341. pimaCanyon

    n1tro,

    wave pattern. 1520 would be a likely stopping point of a move down IF the uptrend is still in force. We would tag 1520 or so, then head to new highs. It’s just a higher probability price region IMO based on wave pattern.

    But we might not get that low. Today’s low could be it. I don’t have a crystal ball and even if I did, it would not be near as clear as Gary’s is.

    Or, we might drop to there and blow right on thru it, down to 1500 or even 1490. The reason I am putting this out as a possibility is that we are due for a daily cycle low and we haven’t gotten it yet. Gary thinks we’re not going to get it, that we are in a runaway move. But what if the cycle is just an unusually long one and we do end up getting something that looks like a daily cycle low. If we do, a drop to 1500 would give us a “normal daily cycle low” look.

  342. pimaCanyon

    supermalc,

    No one is 100 percent right all the time. Gary’s batting average is WAY up there, but even he cannot see the future. So he goes with what gives the best odds in his opinion.

  343. notGreedIsGood

    do you guys get the sense that we have a doji star topping pattern in SLV (and to a lesser extent in GLD) ??

    what’s the likelihood that this will play into the downside?

  344. DG

    Anyone?:
    Interesting: Gary had said that the miners would be expected to explode out of a daily cycle bottom. Well, they sure aren’t exploding today. That either means that it’s different in a runaway move, or the daily cycle bottom is still ahead, which seems odd as we are already so late. does anyone who has been using Gary’s cycles longer than I (or understands them better) have an opinion?

  348. ...at ease

    Has anyone else set the stop that Gary gave us? When I set them up this morning, it seemed really close to the trendline. Does anyone else have a concern on this as I would hate to see my nice positions to ride get stopped out on a drop. Any suggestions or insights appreciated.

  349. DG

    at ease: Trendlines are not relevant. The stop is set at the previous low. If we are still in an uptrend previous lows should not be broken. If they are, something is amiss. The healthy pattern is higher highs and higher lows, not lower lows. He never looks at chart patterns to set stops.

  351. pimaCanyon

    supermalc,

    I wasn’t suggesting you were whining. Just pointing out–I know this is obvious–that Gary is not infallible. Because of that I continually ask myself, what if he is wrong here. He’s usually not wrong, but I want to be prepared in case the market does something he’s not expecting.

    The best thing you can do if you’re new, IMO, is to get a full position at the intermediate cycle low and just hang on thru all the daily cycle lows and don’t sell until Gary gives the sell signal.

    Some of us have tried to trade around the daily cycle low and may be worse off because of it.

    If you have held since the January low, you should be in great shape and it will not matter to you whether we are in a runaway move or whether the very late daily cycle low is still ahead of us.

  355. Rob L.

    DG,

    I’m curious of the answer too. Gary has been right since the January bottom, so I trust him with regards to his views on the miners. I have a good amount of cash in them so I hope that they begin their ascent soon. SLW has a lot of work to do if it reaches Gary’s target of 60.

  356. pimaCanyon

    Also, “full position” depends on the individual. For Gary it’s 100 percent invested with part of that in a double long etf. For others, a full position might be 50 percent or 75 percent. It’s whatever your risk tolerance allows.

  358. notGreedIsGood

    DG- anything is possible, but I think at one point in time, DOC mentioned that it’s possible for a daily gold cycle to stretch, eg. one daily gold cycle lasted 41 days.

    perhaps the miners are once again predicting a brief dip in gold by selling off now. Besides there is heavy SOS on the SPY today

  359. Ollie

    Alex, you use volume in your analysis so I was wondering what you make of this

    UUP:volume is really high, though price is not really going down meaning buying s coming in stopping a further selloff

    SLV/AGQ: pretty much the opposite, huge volume though the price isn’t going anywhere
    Actually yesterday smaller volume caused a 13% move in AGQ, today higher volume isn’t doing anything to the price ie selling keeping the price down

    GLD similar

    So my reading of the tea leaves is we can expect a bounce in USD a correction in the metals

    I’ve studied Wyckoff from the turn of the century who only used price and volume in his analysis…not sure if it means anything today…

    Any comments are welcome, thanks

  360. Sandy101

    PMs may be digesting huge gains from yesterday.

    Silver & gold are still up for the day. Miners are down marginally, which is creating doubts in our minds. Wish Gary was here with his comments:)

  361. ALEX

    DG

    My thoughts on most of these miners, they exploded higher-todays sell off apprears to be 50% Or Less of yesterdays move on many (EXK, AG,etc). Lose some weak hands.

    If they take off tomorrow and monday,etc…you will look back in a month on a daily chart and they will look like they just rocketed off the bottom.

    I think this pause will be bought soon.

    check all your miners on 5 day 30 minute charts..they look pretty good!

    look at AXU, EXK, SLV, SLW, SLV, AG, etc

  363. Rob L.

    Sandy,

    This very well could be the final daily cycle to the top of the c-wave, and if it’s a runaway move then everyone should be chasing not twiddling their thumbs. Time will tell, I guess. 🙂

  365. Sandy101

    Rob,

    I hope we blast through higher starting right now!

    I was 60 % in AGQ as of today morning. Deployed remaining 40 % in NUGT/GDXJ/DGP/GLD calls and SLW calls at highs of today.

    Waiting for the take off eagerly.

  366. n1tro

    Thanks for the explanation Pima. I can see it happening given London will be out for the next 2 trading days but one would be crazy to short or realize profits at this point in the cycle.

  367. ALEX

    OLLIE

    you said, “I’ve studied Wyckoff …”

    Me too and I agree, what you’re seeing is very possible.

    Its Divergence when a flood of volume comes into a bottom (like UUP) and price doesnt move down much. Its usually some kind of ‘capitulation’ selling and buying and I usually expect a bottom (temp or trend change).

    At this point, the p.m. stocks still seem to be acting good, so I am thinking (hoping) they did lead the way down ,while metals continued up , now they turned up , and I hope they lead the way up…OR Metals may even ignore a dollar bounce here too–and they all go up together.

    IF this is the parabolic move up, the bullish move is stronger then normal by a lot. 🙂

    Hope that makes sense as a possibility.

  370. Rob L.

    Sandy,

    Since the miners have lagged there is a good possibility that they could outperform gold and maybe silver in the final move to the blow-off top, IMHO. I have shifted some money from the metals to the miners. I hope I am right.

  371. St. Deluise

    if anyone’s feeling uneasy, tim knight latest post is titled “silver’s blow-off top in full swing” and he has just taken (paper?) short positions in GLD, GDX, and SLV.

  372. KAL

    SPY SoS is up to $281 mill. Looks like almost everything is block trades. Anybody smart explain that considering PM’s are not jumping? I’d love to learn more about this indicator.

  375. MrMiyagi

    I expect some form of high instabililty without the London market bridging the Asian and North American market in the morning.
    Later!

  376. Ollie

    Thanks Alex, I really enjoyed reading Wyckoff though I don’t think it gives an edge in today’s world

    Although these setups look good to me, I have not dealt with a runaway move in gold/silver before so I’m standing aside for the moment

    I even had last minute crazy thoughts to go for a quick trade on ZSL but I’d never short a bull market

    100% cash hoping for a pullback based on price/volume action today…

    Given my track record the entire pm sector will explode to the upside tomorrow:)

  377. Mike

    I think we just have some healthy consolidation today in the minors and metals after a HUGE move yesterday. IMO we tried to have a daily cycle low (and got very close Mon/Tues) this week which would have happened – if not for Bernanke’s speech. This forced many to cover shorts and/or reacquire long positions in the PM’s/minors since it was the worst case scenario for the dollar.

  379. pimaCanyon

    Thus spoke the Chairman…

    “Our interpretation of the increase in gas prices is the economist’s basic mantra of supply and demand,” mused chairman Ben Bernanke yesterday during his first-ever regularly scheduled press conference.

    At that moment, the price of oil reached a new post-2008 high.

    “The Federal Reserve believes that a strong and stable dollar is both in the American interests and in the interest of the global economy,” he also said.

    At that moment, the dollar index reached a new post-2008 low.

    (Could it get more hilarious than that?)

    Back when Bernanke signaled the advent of a new round of easy money — QE2 — during his annual speech at Jackson Hole, Wyo. last August, oil was $75 and the dollar index was at 83…

    “The [Federal Open Market] Committee expects the effects on inflation of higher commodity prices to be transitory,” spake the chairman.

    The Fed can no longer assert “inflation” is a nonissue. So the line now is that it’s a “temporary” one.

    “I do believe that the second round of securities purchases [QE2] was effective,” Bernanke said. “We saw that first in the financial markets. The way monetary policy always works is by easing financial conditions. We saw increases in stock prices.”

    So the phony inflation of stocks prices will lead the economy into a (phony?) recovery?

    (quotes and commentary, except the last sentence, taken from Agora Financial)

  381. San Diego Jack

    The Bernanke says “Supply and Demand” is driving higher oil prices, but his boss, The Obama says “It’s the Speculators driving up prices.”
    They can’t even get their stories straight when they lie to us.
    The truth is, it is about supply, and how the EPA is stopping as many projects for all forms of US domestic production.

  382. David

    San Diego Jack,

    I would argue that it’s mostly about the decline in our currency relative to those commodities, not environmental regulation.

    Commodities are produced globally; our regulations have no effect on most of the world’s oil production.

  383. pimaCanyon

    Alex and Ollie,

    Yeah, the heavy volume in UUP makes me nervous. If you look at the volume spikes going back to last fall, every time we had a spike, it marked a low, except for 10/27 which marked a high, and 10/19 – 10/21.

    Today and yesterday volume was high in GLD and gold futures, and it’s been crazy high for 4 day in SLV and AGQ and silver futures.

    What to make of this?

    Based on history of this and other markets, it seems to raise the odds that a reversal is likely in the dollar and PM’s.

  384. San Diego Jack

    David,
    Both points are excellent, and true for the most part. Oil is priced in Dollars and by falling, takes more to buy a barrel.
    Global production is one thing, but when we are 4% of the World population, yet consume 24%, and then limit domestic production, which Obama is doing, then we pay even more.
    Remember, other countries who produce, subsidize gasoline prices heavily to avoid discontent. 12 cents a gallon in Venezuela? $2.80 in Mexico?
    We only subsidize Corporations here…

  385. T.J. Rand

    Silver’s at a new daily closing high, with a big honking doji framing the battle between buyers and sellers. Doesn’t feel like it wants to explode upward, though.

    I could see a consolidation here for a few days, opening the door for a daily cycle low and a cooling of sentiment on the blog.

    $ looking awful…

  387. ALEX

    PIMA

    I cant argue with that, I looked back at UUP in Nov too, etc. BUT-

    I thought the P.M.’s still held up great, and I feel they usually lead us down if we go down. ex:

    yesterday EXK up 11%
    today down 2%

    SLW up 8%
    Down 2%

    GPL up 17%
    Down 2%

    SLV up 7%
    today up.5%

    GORO up 6%
    today up3%

    AG up 10%
    down 5%

    -yesterday my acct was Up 9%

    -Today down 1%

    so —so far, so good, right??

    wake me up when its over 🙂

    I’m off for now, goodnight all.

  388. ALEX

    I meant to say back in Nov…2 day HUGE VOLUME capitulation…then bounce to the 50sma.

    today 2 huge volume down days…what?

    But the miners ignored the silver/Metals move UP quite a bit, maybe they ignore a dollar correction here. The miners (SO FAR) acted correctly today I.M.H.O.

    DG, I know, I said goodnight already…zip it! 🙂

  389. David

    San Diego Jack,

    If we had a such a vast amount of oil that wasn’t being exploited that it would make a huge difference in the oil price, I would agree with you. But we aren’t and never will be a major oil producer — the oil simply isn’t there to be drilled. Even if we lifted all environmental regulations, I doubt you would see a difference at the pump.

    As the saying goes, the solution to high prices is high prices. $150/bbl oil will make a lot of projects viable, which will bring more supply online, which will then depress the price of oil. This is the classic commodity cycle that we saw in the 1970’s, and it’s playing out again. It’s just exacerbated by what we’re doing to the dollar.

  391. whitebear

    Not meaning to scare anyone, but I see the move down to 42 silver a real possibility, going into tomorrow and next week.
    Just what my system is glimpsing.

    I am flat except for some light AEM and SA positions.

    Ciao’

  392. Wes

    DG,

    Based on the dollar cycle, we could still get the gold daily cycle in the next two weeks.

    We’re currently on day 10 of the dollar cycle.

  393. Wes

    Alex,

    I’m still running a homemade Windows 2000 box and when things go pear shaped on this machine, I’m really lost.

    But, I’m like the ball player who won’t change socks.

    You find me another machine that can trade this well and make as much money as this one has, and I may try it (for a day or two). 🙂

  394. T.J. Rand

    Wes-

    Did Gary call April 17th the daily dollar cycle bottom? I’ve got that we’re on day 28 of the dollar cycle- I show a bounce as due, both on daily and weekly charts.

    DOCs phasing is a bit different

  395. CMT

    Pima, thanks for making me literally “laugh out loud” with this one:

    “Alex,

    DG is taking his nap now, so he’s not here to give you a hard time. “

  396. DG

    Pima and CMT: Very funny. And damn you—you’re right. I just woke up. Geez, we are really getting to know each other too well around here! (Warning: sometimes I don’t fall over till 2:00, but only if I have missed my earlier feeding!)

  397. Wes

    As to the miners, I just don’t see why anyone messes with them. In way less time than it takes to study the fundamentals of a half dozen to see which ones have already priced in the hereafter, you can learn options from scratch.

    Then you can set any leverage multiple you want and are only betting that silver will continue to go up in order to win.

    If silver is not going to continue on up, then it’s game over either with or without miners.

    SLV options are my choice for leverage.

    Besides, I’m confused about miners. Gary says they will outperform and TZ says they will underperform. If this were a timing question, I’d go with Gary in a heartbeat, but neither of them is usually wrong about this type of question.

  398. DG

    SPY SoS: $300mm. Maybe the dollar does bounce and we get a PM dip? Hopefully Gary will post his thoughts tonight. If we haven’t seen a true bottom the $1291 stop is irrelevant.

  399. Poly

    Wes, agree and that’s my philosophy too. Simple to execute, biggest bang for the buck.

    That’s why Gary has gone deeper and deeper into AGQ, a leveraged instrument against the metal.
    Why not go just a few more notches higher and profit from the cycles, they have clearly been adept to picking bottoms.

  401. Mike

    “What do you mean? Short, one of the greatest bull markets!”

    Even people here are talking about shorting or hedging the D-wave, so yes!

    I bet there were a ton of shorts after Monday’s reversal with stops that got taken out yesterday after the speech.

  402. Poly

    IMO Gary’s stops are potentially dangerous. If we print that cycle low, it’s most likely going to be short, sharp and sweat. Then we could be up to new high’s in a flash while subs are standing naked and stopped out. Just an opinion.

    Why not wait for this “new cycle” to prove itself or place the stop well below. The goal of stops is to protect against a failed cycle, not a cycle bottom.

  411. Wes

    John’s M,

    I didn’t get the memo. I’ve been timing them, certainly not with great accuracy, but with great effect. Close is really good enough.

  413. Poly

    Yeah, timing we mean picking close to a bottom and a top, more often than not.

    Being able to ride an entire bull market early to the end, is extremely profitable.

    Riding a bull market beginning to the end, leveraged, could make you rich.

    Riding a bull market begging to the end, leveraged, while avoid major drops while putting the pedal to the medal near bottoms……Priceless!

  414. Jayhawk

    Wes & Poly-

    You guys have been touting that strategy and sharing bits and pieces here and there…I’ve appreciated your insight.

    Can you give a few examples of what might be a portfolio using options?

    As an example, maybe per 100K of money in the account. The goal would be to position the account for the final daily cycle move. (Not one someone would buy at the start of the intermediate. We would used GLD & SLV…If you can highlight the month, strike, % of the account, etc.

    1. Conservative
    2. Moderate
    3. Aggressive

    So many here are totally against using them, but you 2 seem to think there’s a clear way to do this low risk and get the gains off the move without messing with miners which have been unpredictable.

    I did some positioning with my IRA…I took the DITM options route a good % of the account (GLD), smaller amt of SLV (slightly out of the $) and small lotto on SLW. This was done with about 1/2 of the account.

    Anyway…Sorry to pester you guys again about this. I know you have thrown out “you could buy these or those” over the past 2 weeks. But if you were starting from scratch right now with 100% cash position and both GARY and DOC said the daily cycle was confirmed, what would you do for those 3 portfolios.

    I’ll hang up and listen for my answer. 🙂

  415. Jayhawk

    This is a trader I know personally out in CO. He uses almost all options, mostly front month & some weeklies.

    http://profit.ly/user/J_Biddy_Trader

    Grew his account from 5K last summer to over 220K. He’s done this several times.

    Nothing special. He’s patient for the right set up, uses the MACD and some simple MA’s.

    I’m a “sub” with him (he gave it to me), but my $ is tied up in this PM swing so I have not done his trades recently.

  416. Poly

    Hi Jay,

    Obviously my answer the other day was not enough 🙂

    For me, its a difficult question to answer, because I do not have a set price target or a set allocation, my allocation has varied from every daily and INT cycle. A lot of it is feel and comfort, at any given time. Right now I still have a decent amount of cash, without that daily cycle print, i can not commit leverage only to get slaughtered.

    BUT, I will say I have some rules and guidelines, maybe listing them will help:

    – Only buy VERY deep in the money calls with the bulk of any allocation.
    – Buy them on instruments that have open interest, tight spreads and strong volume.
    – Earlier strikes are better on DIM, the premium is next to nothing and you can roll with these. No need to pay extra.
    – Don’t buy them on miners.
    – OTM calls are PURE lotteries and as such you should be willing to lose the entire investment. In fact, any OTM I buy I “mentally” mark them as worthless! Only buy these around INT and Cycle lows.
    – OTM’s need careful planning and realistic expectations. Most OTM’s expire worthless, especially those purchased during ANY rally. This is because they are priced to high in greedy expectation of a cash out. Pick these up on the waterfall, if possible.
    – Buying around the money calls are dangerous. This is to be done at INT and Daily cycle lows in small allocations.
    – Attempt to keep your allocations stable, do not trade in and out, they get costly quickly.
    – After an extended run or near the end of a cycle, start leveraging out and banking. A big drop can EAT your profits quickly.
    – Ride into a daily cycle low with a smaller position, say 25-40%.
    – Once a daily cycle low is printed, push in hard and QUICK. Do not wait for a swing for a good portion, option get expensive quickly once a rally is sniffed.
    – Near the end of an INT cycle, leverage out quicker. The spike into a INT cycle top will be profitable even with a small allocation.
    – Get ready to sell ALL positions at the INT cycle top.
    – Keep plenty of cash (20% min) as backup and for re-entry. If a cycle low is incorrectly printed, you want to take advantage of it.
    – For all cycle lows, I always try to buy an allocation on the WAY DOWN. Say around 25% of my intended lot. You get these cheap and they immediately print fat profit if the cycle low goes your way.
    – As the cycle matures, scale in harder and harder, using your considerable profit to roll into bigger positions.
    – The initial INT Cycle bottom is the hardest, mentally. You have NO position being out, so you have to re-build your stake and positions to the point where it’s only house money and even a major decline will just be loss of some profit.
    – Watch the WIGGLES! Seriously, the account moves and moves hard and fast. Being up or down double digits during a trading day is not uncommon. It takes nerve to see double digit losses.

    This isn’t rocket science and it’s fairly new to me, like most things, it’s a work in progress. You need to be able to time the market to some extent, know when to hold them and know when to fold them, as they say. But key has been Gary’s cycles, we all know how good he is.

  418. Wes

    Jayhawk,

    My account consists of two things. First I have just over 60% cash.

    Second I have DIM SLV May options that give me 140% account leverage.

    Now, if I were doing this today, I would use SLV May 41 calls which were $6.70 when SLV was $47.35.

    My account consists of some May $32 and $35 options which have unrealized gains. If my entire account were May 41s, my cash level would be in excess of 70%.

    Now if I knew the cycle lows were in, I’d just go all in, still using May 41s. But you never know these things for sure, and using options allows you to keep the most firepower while getting good leverage.

    Remember, I haven’t even mentioned margin, which would give you even more buying power if you needed it.

    All in in my account using the 60% cash and the May 41s would give me leverage of more than 560%. I would not do that, so I’m never going to be cash constricted.

    I’ll add that biding halfway between bid and ask almost always gets a fill.

    And I know the silver rally will go on beyond the expiration date of the options, so you will need to roll them, preferably on weakness during the week of expiration.

    Now, I’m chomping at the bit for silver to collapse into a cycle low, and the lower the better because I’m more than half cash.

    And if it starts falling, I’ll probably sell some of the 41 strike options when silver breaks resistance. And I’ll be buying lower strike options at the low, always keeping the strike price plus the price of the option no more than 50 cents above the price of SLV.

    Hope this helps.

  419. gratitudo

    Silver Miners – Earnings to be Reported:

    AG is 5/9/11

    SLW is 5/9

    CDE is 5/10

    PASS is 5/10

    SVM is 5/12

    SSRI is 5/17

    5/9-5/10 will hopefully be good days in the market for everyone here.

  420. Jayhawk

    Wow, excellent information form both you guys, thank you very much.

    I’ve cut and saved it to be saved & read later.

    Poly-sounds like Wes does not go “all in” with his cash but you may it seems.

    Is this 100% of your investment money or is this a specific account you trade the PMs. (I hear DG say I’m 100% with my net worth, etc.)

    I’ve got every dime I have both in my last remaining IRA, my brokerage, everything I have on this trade this year…But using options (with less capital outlay) to get the same return is very appealing.

    I’m a little nervous now reading Poly’s advice. I bought in the GLD and SLV calls yesterday…So if a daily cycle bottom is in front, I hope is over in a flash.

    We should have a SMT investment conference. You guys could teach the options class with BobLH, Alex can show us how to trade miners, etc. 🙂

  422. Wes

    My rule of thumb for buying DIM silver (SLV) options is to buy the closest month at the highest strike price where:

    Strike + option price is less than $0.50

    There will always be a unique solution to this equation, so for me which option to buy is settled.

    If buying during expiration week, buy the second closest month.

  423. Bob loves Hawaii

    I think people have recency bias regarding the miners. I am up 400 percent on AG and EXK, and 50% in two months on GORO, and 25% on AXU.

    Using leverage on these for my option positions I am up 4-5X higher than my stocks. I have doubled SLW once and 6X on the other since the 08 bottom on two trades with them.

    There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that when the cash flow starts gushing out of these miners as they report people are going to scramble into these companies.

    I did M & A work for ten years and I assure you cash flow is king, and valuations will rise or these guys will be taken out through acquisitions or buyouts, at handsome premiums.

    Stay patient.

  429. Poly

    Jay,

    Glad it’s of some use. I’m not an expert or a professional. I’ve read some books and work full time. 🙂 I’ve made plenty of mistakes and got burnt on S&P puts, all posted here. My comments are to be taken as such, please.
    I’m rarely all in, but when I am, it’s towards the middle of a very nicely formed daily cycle, then scaled back with plenty of room before the end.

    It’s ALL of my trading accounts. I have 401k accounts that do not allow margin/options, so I do AGQ and some miners. No it’s not with my net worth, LOL. I have “family” accounts that I do not trade with. I have some “metal” exposure within, for example I love TGDLX. The custodian accounts have plenty of MCD stock 🙂

    I also have a decent DRIP collection, I highly recommend these to all.

    Consult your financial adviser before investing. Blah Blah Blah.

    Good night.

  430. diana

    Rob L said: “Since the miners have lagged there is a good possibility that they could outperform gold and maybe silver in the final move to the blow-off top, IMHO. I have shifted some money from the metals to the miners.”

    And others who say they are buying miners – Are you buying the physical stock, or are you buying puts on them? If I’m not doing puts; is buying the physical okay, too? TIA

  431. YesLetsDiscuss

    Poly, Wes, Jayhawk,

    Thank you! These comments are valuable.

    I have learnt over the past few months to control leverage and risk with options thanks to Gary and comments here.

  432. ddn3f

    Wes,

    I don’t understand your last comment about
    “My rule of thumb for buying DIM silver (SLV) options is to buy the closest month at the highest strike price where:

    Strike + option price is less than $0.50″

    can you just throw out an example so that it makes sense.

  434. ...at ease

    ok, so we are close at 1445/1441 abouts. Sounds safer than 1491, as I was just not comfortable with that stop. I have a good ride now and when I set those stops this morning, I was a bit concerned, so took them off. Thanks Jen 🙂
    Also, great job on the $$$$ making. Must be in a woman’s blood, to have egg (seed) money, set aside for emergencies. Good idea, I know I have designated corners for this fund run and some to start over again. 🙂

  435. ddn3f

    Wes,

    I get it. You buy options that are DIM and only have a premium of less than $0.50. Was what you were getting at with your formula?

  437. pimaCanyon

    For those of you who have TOS accounts, you can get the number that Wes is talking about on their Trade tab when you’re looking at options for SLV or GLD. The number Wes is talking about is called “extrinsic”. An in the money option has “intrinsic” value which is the current price of the stock or etf minus the strike price of the call option. The price of the option that is over and above its intrinsic value is called premium or extrinsic value.

    TOS has a pulldown that shows you various data re options. One of the choices in that pulldown is “intrinsic and extrinsic”. Just select that and it will show you those values for each of the strike prices.

  438. Bob loves Hawaii

    I am going to share with you my criteria for entering positions. Quite simple;

    Price greater than 200 EMA
    Price greater than 65 day
    Day EMA less than 30 EMA

    Stoch 14-5 less than 20.

    I filter daily and add any of these to my watchlist. As the stochs breaks above 20 and look for the 10 to cross the 30. Then i either buy it or more likely buy one strike out calls, two expirations out.

    Hold as long as price stays above the 30.

    You can set stops as you see fit.

    SVM hit my screen today.

  441. diana

    Mr Miyagi – Yes, calls – sorry 🙂
    Now that you know how my brain works, you know why I’m afraid to get into options (for this ride, anyway).

    Gary – Can we assume you didn’t go climbing today? That would really be the sheets ;D Don’t eat any burritos tonight!

  442. pimaCanyon

    Bob from Hawaii:

    You wrote:

    “Price greater than 200 EMA
    Price greater than 65 day
    Day EMA less than 30 EMA”

    The third line looks like a number is missing from the “Day EMA” part??

  443. pvm999

    I know someone commented earlier about the SOS on the SPY.

    Something else to look at is the volume on UUP.

    When up has had significant volume like this previously, the dollar rallied.

    Just wondering if these two events are related?

  444. Poly

    Bob,

    Interesting, thanks for sharing. I selfishly feed of Gary, your criteria will often differ, how do you reconcile? Does he give the green light? Curious, thanks.

  447. Rob L.

    Diana,

    I’m not nearly as experienced as many of the investors here, just so you know. I currently own some SLW and a double bull gold miner’s etf.

    I don’t trade options right now, and may never, but ya never know.

  448. Movax2

    Re:Options

    Someone suggested the book “Get Rich with Options”

    I bought it and read it. It takes away a lot of the mystery and gives you some good strategies. I’ll be using options soon.

  449. Silverman

    Poly, Wes, Bob LH,

    Wow!! That was quite a tutorial. I don’t think many of us option newbs can thank you enough for sharing your experiences and for providing us such great information. It’s cut, pasted and framed!

    Thanks a million!!!!!

  452. Le Fou

    What is the consensus on the likely beginning of the D-Wave?

    I got the feeling from what Gary said yesterday, that the D-Wave won’t start until some time in June.

    Are you (collective) reading it that way?

    Best,
    Le Fou

  453. Haggerty

    Le fou

    I think they other day gary mentioned on the blog this could run till Early July. But as far as that comment about end of May I think we don’t have to start looking for anything till then. That’s what I got from it.

  454. David

    My sense is early June.

    Keep in mind that Gary has already moved his estimate, so it’s not a scheduled event. We are waiting for the dollar to show signs of making a bottom, presumably a lower low than we hit in 2008.

  455. Gary

    The D-wave will start when the dollar bottoms. I’m fairly confident that won’t happen until the dollar makes new all times lows. It’s already broke through all support levels except the 08 low. That would be the next target, and next weeks employment report would be the next logical opportunity for a short term bounce.

  456. ddn3f

    I also believe that when the dollar index drops down to the 2008 low ~71 ( i forget the exact number), an idea is to go to gold.

    Not sure when Gary will switch to gold, but I think the latest time to switch is when the dollar index breaks its lows.

  459. Razvan

    i am very concerned about Gary getting sick! besides the fact that hes a great person we cant afford for anything to happen to him.

    Someone should volunteer to accompany him on his trips and serve as the food taster. Take one for the team!

  464. Le Fou

    The dollar is already at 73.12. That’s less than two ticks from the all time low of 71.31.

    How long could it take to drop $1.81?

    Best,
    Le Fou

  467. Le Fou

    The last drop of $1.81 took all of 7 trading days. Before that it was 17 trading days.

    That suggests to me that the dollar will hit bottom sometime in the next 2-3 weeks.

    Of course, as that great sage Yogi Berra put it, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

    Best,
    Le Fou

  469. Le Fou

    ddn3f,

    You are right. I stand corrected.

    I’m not sure that extra $ .62 changes much. We’re still going to break the low in relatively short order.

    Best,
    Le Fou

  470. TheBookGuy

    Wes, Poly, Bob, (anyone else who wants to chime in),

    Why would someone not Buy Calls 4 months out, right On the Money at the D-wave bottom?

  475. Bob loves Hawaii

    If you go four months out, you are paying a hefty premium for time. Better off to go DITM or lottery ticket OTM.

    Or buy a spread, that way you isolate Theta and volatility to a degree.

    I believe the A wave reaches back to the C wave top do set your upper leg at the that strike.

  476. 86d4life

    Bob LH,
    I had dropped most of my agq and in the last few days replaced it with dgp. I see this thing with silver starting to turn into a real blender. Hell, the dollar is going to need life support by next week!

  477. Brian

    Book Guy, Poly makes clear his strategy is very aggressive. Bottom line is they are not buying time. In a strong uptrend like this it works.

    In 2010 we had a head fake on an intermediate cycle. As he states, you have to be right there (watch the wiggles), because when these options with no time go against you, the money vaporizes quickly.

    I think in some earlier posts he talked about also buying longer dated options at the intermediate lows. That is what I typically do, just in small doses. I can’t be with the market all the time.

  478. Wes

    Gary,

    While the public sentiment for gold is not extremely high, the danger line has also declined. Currently gold’s sentiment is just under the danger line by a point or so.

    Does this matter, or are you looking for higher numbers ?

  479. TheBookGuy

    Bob/Brian,
    Thank you for commenting.

    So Bob, what you are saying is DITM or OTM 4 months out? That would decrease the premium?

    So say we reach $1650 this go round, we end the C-Wave June 1st, we are close to the D-Wave bottom July 15th or think we are. I could buy GLD calls at say $160 strike for November and that would be considered a lottery play? It would give me a lot of leverage without a lot of exposure and I could possibly hit a home run on just a few calls. Am I understanding correctly?

    Brian,
    Would you mind giving me an example and telling me why you do it? Is it simply to reduce risk or does it give you leverage?

  480. Gary

    Wes
    sentiment will be irrelevant until the dollar bottoms. This is all about finding protection from a collapsing dollar.

  481. Brian

    Book guy, I do it to add alpha to my portfolio, but I am not willing to risk as much capital as some because my job doesn’t allow me to babysit option positions. I buy at what I think is an intermediate low and pay the premium for 6 months of time. To date my max has been 2% of portfolio.

    This is kind of a tourtise and hare discussion. Under perfect conditions like this rise in silver many will hit home runs. In slower rises they risk losing. Option sellers have a 90% winning record for a reason.

  482. TheBookGuy

    Brian,

    Thank you. I do not have time to babysit either. I want to learn as much as possible though and I really appreciate all the knowledge here.

  483. diana

    86d4life – Yes, I did mention mutual funds (with miners), but I realized they would be better for holding long term at the bottom of the D-wave. Toqueville has been recommended to me. Thanks for your reply.

  484. MBS

    Gary,
    A july top in gold would mean we have 2 daily cycles left in the dollar after this streched one. Is this how you think it plays out? I guess a short cycle after this long one, then a normal duration cycle puts us in range, but doesn’t this make the 3 year dollar cycle too long?

    Thanks

  485. Duuuuuude

    Any currency traders out there? When the D wave begins, I would think there is a huge opportunity awaiting for a currency spread trade between the euro and the dollar. My understanding of spreads is that the margin requirements are much less. any thoughts are appreciated.

    http://screencast.com/t/ZxzhNfLoMT

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